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Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. It's not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but that's what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karen's center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.


Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4" of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 - 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings up for the central GOM.

GOM October storm. WOW!!! Is everybody happy now? At last there is something to watch, and debate and speculate, and second guess, and all that good stuff. Have fun y'all.
Quoting 482. FtMyersgal:


Collier County has been getting most of the rain in SW Florida the past three days. I've been dry in Lee County


Same here in n CH cnty. Looks like that'll change today.
Quoting 492. FunnelVortex:


Hope not.


well he didnt talked to himself..SS93 stays and Scott is banned..LOL

12z JMA has increased its strength since the 00z run for landfall









Suprise, suprise


Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF T.S.
KAREN...WITH A TIGHT ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AND PRESENCE OF A
DEFINITIVE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE TO SWEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE NNE.
THE MODEL THAT BEST FIT THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WHILE ALSO
DEPICTING A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE...WAS THE 00Z CANADIAN.



Cancun now
Quoting 439. C0astalAlabama:
Regardless if this storm weakens, strengthens, or stays the same, its impact on our area is enough to cancel outdoor events in MS / AL / FL, such as MS Cruise the Coast, Mobile's Bayfest, and FL's Seafood Festival in Destin, among others.

And, of course, the much anticipated special RED SNAPPER SEASON that just began on Tuesday. Takes out 4-5 days of fishing opportunity. Bummer.

ON a separate note, if I were living in Georgia, S. Carolina or N. Carolina, I would be a bit on the lookout for tornado potential as this (regardless of strength at coast) rides up the cold front that will be pushing through Sun-Tuesday.


Cruisin the Coast should be OK It starts Sunday, but that is mainly just for signing in if you are going to participate with your car. Doesn't really kick off until Monday and I think any wind and rain should be through by then. Hopefully there isn't a lot of clean up to do.
Quoting 496. SuperStorm093:
Not looking good at all and we still have hours before DMIN hits, this thing could be over soon folks.


Please note the "H" in the cone.

Quoting 496. SuperStorm093:
Not looking good at all and we still have hours before DMIN hits, this thing could be over soon folks.


ya its a swirl alert for now
hit early day effect
still I say just at or after sunset
then could be a convective refire
commence on the system

whatever its to be
its going to get one chance
to do it no more


lets wait and see

Quoting 447. CaneHunter031472:


Ugh... my luck I was going to Cruising the coast and bayfest... there's still hope. Look at the water vapor.


They just said on Chan.5 news that Bayfest is on rain or shine.
Quoting 508. FunnelVortex:


Please note the "H" in the cone.

and how many times have we seen those cones forecast change within a blink of an eye?
Quoting 504. ncstorm:


well he didnt talked to himself..SS93 stays and Scott is banned..LOL

12z JMA has increased its strength since the 00z run for landfall











But we need scott here with this one. He's been right about it so far.



another cam
Quoting 512. FunnelVortex:


But we need scott here with this one. He's been right about it so far.
no he hasnt, he said it would have become a TD 3 days and a TS 2 days ago. He hasnt been right, he said it was forming an EYE last night lol.
here comes recon thanxs pat
Quoting 464. Sfloridacat5:


Not looking good at the moment. Shear and dry air are really putting up a fight.


I know, but even if Karen persist I seriously believe that it will impact Pensacola or Destin. That would bring the dry side to Mississppi, so there still hope IMHO. I won't cancel any plans until I hear anything from the organizers.

Elsewhere in the world..


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
==================================

Sea Around Kuril Island

At 21:00 PM JST, Low, Former Sepat (1000 hPa) located at 51.0N 156.0E. The low is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 22.0N 175.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

------------------------------------------------- ----

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
21:00 PM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Mariana Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 16.4N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 144.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island

------------------------------------------------- ----

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FITOW (T1323)
21:00 PM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Sea South of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fitow (980 hPa) located at 21.2N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.9N 128.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Naha (Okinawa)
48 HRS: 24.8N 126.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East of Miyako Island
72 HRS: 27.8N 122.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
click for loop...
Quoting 512. FunnelVortex:


But we need scott here with this one. He's been right about it so far.


What? Ok.

Recon should be interesting.
Quoting 491. LAbonbon:


I think that's a really good question. Someone posted earlier this morning (think it was Beell?) that the trough and associated front might take longer (from an NWS update). I'm waiting to see what NWS/New Orleans says about it when they update their discussion this afternoon. They've been discussing the front, the tropical system, and how the different models are interpreting them, in pretty good detail.


Thanks! I noticed that so been eagerly awaiting that update myself. It seems the GFS may indicate the front slowing down and it seems to me thats a pretty important detail. Also, regardless of Karen's strength, I think keeping an eye on things here is advisable because of the amount of rain we have gotten lately. Even a measly depression could cause enough blustery gusts to down a few trees in wet soil and we all know how quickly power can get restored down here :-\ Nuisance stuff at the least, but still need planning for.
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya its a swirl alert for now
hit early day effect
still I say just at or after sunset
then could be a convective refire
commence on the system

whatever its to be
its going to get one chance
to do it no more


lets wait and see



DO IT!
Quoting 508. FunnelVortex:


Please note the "H" in the cone.



Interesting, will be a hurricane then it goes back to TS before landfall, maybe it will be the interaction with the Atlas cold front...
so super stand up and face reality. karen is still strengthening and will until she reaches the northern gulf it okay to admit you were wrong first time in 2013?


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:30Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 09

17:30:30Z 25.000N 89.733W 894.6 mb
(~ 26.42 inHg) 1,081 meters
(~ 3,547 feet) 1012.7 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 132 at 12 knots
(From the SE at ~ 13.8 mph) 19.3C
(~ 66.7F) 17.4C
(~ 63.3F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 28.3 knots (~ 32.5 mph)
235.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 306 miles (493 km) to the S (177) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 17:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 345 miles (554 km) to the S (177) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Thanks Levi. I like that forecast. Winds and rain to the east of the center and I'm on the West side so no impact for me as of now. Hopefully it will move more to the east.
Quoting 521. NOLABean:


Thanks! I noticed that so been eagerly awaiting that update myself. It seems the GFS may indicate the front slowing down and it seems to me thats a pretty important detail. Also, regardless of Karen's strength, I think keeping an eye on things here is advisable because of the amount of rain we have gotten lately. Even a measly depression could cause enough blustery gusts to down a few trees in wet soil and we all know how quickly power can get restored down here :-\ Nuisance stuff at the least, but still need planning for.


Bingo! I have most of the storm-related goods most people gather. The one thing I try and do is prepare for no power by literally getting my house in order. Laundry, cleaning, etc. Nothing worse in the aftermath than having an extended power outage while in a house that needs cleaning, and no 'modern' way of doing it.
Quoting 524. sunlinepr:


Interesting, will be a hurricane then it goes back to TS before landfall, maybe it will be the interaction with the Atlas cold front...


If that interaction is even made.
Corps to close barge gate at Inner Harbor Navigation Canal-Lake Borgne Surge Barrier for TS Karen

With southeastern Louisiana in the possible path of Tropical Storm Karen, the Army Corps of Engineers plans to close the massive barge gate for the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway at the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal-Lake Borgne Surge Barrier.

The closure, which will take place at 2 p.m., is a precaution that the corps takes when a tropical cyclone threatens the area. The smaller navigational sector gate and the lift gate at Bayou Bienvenue will remain open until further notice, the corps announced in a statement.

The surge barrier, built after Hurricane Katrina, is a 1.8-mile wall against rising Gulf waters that accompany tropical storms and hurricanes. It stretches across the former Mississippi River Gulf Outlet and the Golden Triangle Marsh.
IHNC-Lake Borgne Surge Barrier

This isn't a threat to intensify for the next 12 hours. Right now, it's going to remain a 65mph TS.
Quoting 534. Patrap:
IHNC-Lake Borgne Surge Barrier



Sounds cheap!
538. HCW
Quoting 510. mobilebayal:


They just said on Chan.5 news that Bayfest is on rain or shine.


Bayfest will be canceled if a Hurricane Warning is ever issued so that's not 100% true what WKRG said :)
Still, looking away from the exposed COC, the general structure has improved in the last few hours. It's gone from a blobbish look to a more spiral banded look. If it ever covers back up, at least partially, it'll probably make a run at hurricane status. Always be certain to look at the full picture, this isn't an organized storm, but there's more to a system than the convection.
Levi's blog update is pretty much spot on. I like it.



Worser and Worser...

(Thankfully)
Quoting 512. FunnelVortex:


But we need scott here with this one. He's been right about it so far.


I agree. Scott should stay.
Another 2013-type storm
Quoting 528. LAbonbon:


Bingo! I have most of the storm-related goods most people gather. The one thing I try and do is prepare for no power by literally getting my house in order. Laundry, cleaning, etc. Nothing worse in the aftermath than having an extended power outage while in a house that needs cleaning, and no 'modern' way of doing it.


Ha! That's exactly what I do! I think people get so wrapped up in storm strength that they forget the nuisance issues that need planning for with even the weaker disturbances. I plan for 2 days of no power for the least of tropical disturbances... Down to extra chlorine in our ring pool! (Besides, its somewhere to cool off when things calm down - ha!)



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:40Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 10


17:40:30Z 24.500N 89.683W 960.1 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 463 meters
(~ 1,519 feet) 1012.4 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 112° at 23 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 18.7°C
(~ 65.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.8 knots (~ 30.9 mph)
116.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 346 miles (556 km) to the S (177°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 17:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 379 miles (610 km) to the S (177°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
We don't need Scott but his forecast wasn't bad
That convective band didn't like all that dry air. Cough cough.

T.C.F.W
12L/TS/K/CX
I think I might be a psychic. Somehow I knew cynicism would rule once the CoC became exposed. If it covers back up in the next 6 hours then people will be screaming that this is a serious threat instead of dissipating storm.
Quoting 540. MississippiWx:
Levi's blog update is pretty much spot on. I like it.



Which one were you reading?
Quoting 543. Drakoen:
Another 2013-type storm


It's been that kind of year hasn't it. Just can't get all the right conditions together for a well developed/classic type system.
StormTrackerScott doesn't need to be banned but he needs to learn to not overdue things and scare people and making false posts
Quoting 551. CybrTeddy:
I think I might be a psychic. Somehow I knew cynicism would rule once the CoC became exposed. If it covers back up in the next 6 hours then people will be screaming that this is a serious threat instead of dissipating storm.

Maybe Karen will pull a Chris a nice low level swirl going into some dry air.
557. BGMom
May I ask a question about this system? I am in NW Georgia and it looks like the system may track up through here. As far in as we are, I know we're not getting anything crazy, but I am always confused when the WU forecast will say "Tropical Depression" in red on a particular day -- for my particular zipcode, yet the predicted weather is just fog or clouds.

Can any of you experts explain? Seems like we might get something more than that.

If you feel the threat to the folks in the panhandle is too urgent to stop and discuss my absolutely NON urgent question, no worries. I totally get it.

Carry on, and as always, thanks for all the great information!
Quoting 552. GatorWX:


Which one were you reading?


Link
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1152 am EDT Thursday Oct 3 2013

Update...
mainly adjusted forecast to limit slight probability of precipitation across far northern
Georgia this afternoon as cannot rule out some isolated showers
with weak orographic enhancement. Moisture looks a bit more limited
than previously thought. Otherwise forecast looks to be on track
and previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 731 am EDT Thursday Oct 3 2013/

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am EDT Thursday Oct 3 2013/

Short term /today through Friday/...
early morning cloud cover keeping fog development potential low
across north Georgia...but in the clear areas in the central and
eastern portions of the state...seeing periods of patchy fog
reported. Expect any fog to diminish just after sunrise.

Through the short term...the surface high and upper level ridge lose
control over the region. Model solutions agree with dampening out
high aloft...and with surface high east of the state...will see
decent moisture moving into the northwestern and northern portions
of the state. With southeasterly flow persisting across the
region...orographic influence should be enough to squeeze out some
light showers across the northern County Warning Area. As a result...have continued
with mention of slight chance probability of precipitation across the area.

Expect above normal temperatures again today and Friday. Have
generally gone with a blend of the model guidance...which continues
to do well in this environment.

31

&&

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the main focus will be on the potential for a tropical system to
affect the County Warning Area during the latter half of this coming weekend. The
European model (ecmwf) is the weakest with the GFS being the strongest. The latest
European model (ecmwf) is coming in line with the GFS as far as location is
concerned. The Canadian appears to be a good compromise...although
just slightly to the west of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) position. At this
point...whatever model is chosen it still is pointing to a very
wet Sunday/Sunday night for most of the County Warning Area and will raise probability of precipitation to
high likely category for Sunday/Sunday night. Drying conditions
should spread across the entire County Warning Area by the middle of next week and
it should remain dry for the rest of the long term as the 500 mb ridge
develops over the eastern U.S.


Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?Discus sionCode=FFC&StateCode=GA&SafeCityName=Atlanta#zsu wDkYJLUzrk0Pw.99
Quoting 557. BGMom:
May I ask a question about this system? I am in NW Georgia and it looks like the system may track up through here. As far in as we are, I know we're not getting anything crazy, but I am always confused when the WU forecast will say "Tropical Depression" in red on a particular day -- for my particular zipcode, yet the predicted weather is just fog or clouds.

Can any of you experts explain? Seems like we might get something more than that.

If you feel the threat to the folks in the panhandle is too urgent to stop and discuss my absolutely NON urgent question, no worries. I totally get it.

Carry on, and as always, thanks for all the great information!


Rain if it doesn't fall apart by then. Nothing much beyond that.
I think 2013 is the year of the exhibitionist. How many storms have we had this year that took all their clothes off and became nekid swirls?

Karen been around for less than a day and she's already taking her clothes off as well. Maybe the storms are trying to tell us something, or maybe this is their "Woodstock" year. ;)
Quoting 555. Patrap:
Amazing--but not a surprise in the least. While Karen's low-level swirl continues marching north-northwest, her convection is fading in a hurry as it scurries off to the northeast. So long as the current paradigm holds, she's not going to be able to develop any further--in fact, if that's the case, we may have already seen her at her peak. But, like always, we'll see. She may be able to recover yet...
564. 7544
shear is blowing the convection to the east at this hour
I'm not surprised at Karen's performance considering it was forecast to be heavily sheared to east.

Source

Sideglance to our European cyclone "Werner", which is battering the UK with torrential rains (ongoing until tomorrow) and will effect my place in Germany at Saturday with a load of rain.



And Africa still tries to deliver lows/waves to the Atl, but without much success:

Looks terrible, another bust storm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 88.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

GFS seems to think things will get better convectively with Karen so we will see
Quoting 551. CybrTeddy:
I think I might be a psychic. Somehow I knew cynicism would rule once the CoC became exposed. If it covers back up in the next 6 hours then people will be screaming that this is a serious threat instead of dissipating storm.


I always tell people to follow the NHC forecasts and listen to their local emergency management for real life threatening decision making.

WARNING - take members advice at you own risk.

RECON vectoring to its run Azimuth



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:50Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 11



17:50:30Z 23.983N 89.483W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 463 meters
(~ 1,519 feet) 1011.6 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 91° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 28.5 knots (~ 32.8 mph)
124.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 382 miles (614 km) to the S (177°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 17:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 416 miles (669 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Quoting 551. CybrTeddy:
I think I might be a psychic. Somehow I knew cynicism would rule once the CoC became exposed. If it covers back up in the next 6 hours then people will be screaming that this is a serious threat instead of dissipating storm.


Not me. I've been the cynic for sometime now. ;-)
She's down to 1004 mb. now
Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031754
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 88.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Lol. The GFDL/HWRF are so awful with strength.

Quoting 569. Drakoen:
GFS seems to think things will get better convectively with Karen so we will see



Starting this evening infact as Karens pulls further away from the Yucatan.
578. SLU
Quoting 535. CybrTeddy:
This isn't a threat to intensify for the next 12 hours. Right now, it's going to remain a 65mph TS.


I said so since this morning

If anything, the next recon might find Karen weaker.

Quoting 530. Patrap:


Pretty much NW. Will be interesting to see if she reaches the 90. That would mean SE La. for sure. She is pulling away from the TS's so she will be on her own in a pretty windy dry air mass which will mean a downgrade as she goes.
581. HCW
Good info just posted by KMOB NWS

Ohhh the GFS huggers. Lol.


Karen seems to be trying to fire off some new convection north and east, near the COC.
Quoting 572. MississippiWx:


Not me. I've been the cynic for sometime now. ;-)


Agree
586. SLU
Quoting 578. SLU:


I said so since this morning

If anything, the next recon might find Karen weaker.



... without deep core convection, the winds will not be conveyed to the surface effectively thus weakening the system's intensity.

What a horrible looking storm. smh

Patrap. Where's Hurlo. I think we need him.

Are you getting ready yourself?

Quoting 550. StormGoddess:
Karen weakening
 photo Karen10-03-2013_zps864e191a.jpg


It looks like a drop of water in the middle of the desert. The final result I'm sure will be similar.



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:00Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 12

18:00:30Z 23.583N 89.050W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 449 meters
(~ 1,473 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 87° at 29 knots
(From the E at ~ 33.3 mph) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 29.9 knots (~ 34.4 mph)
103.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 418 miles (673 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 18:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 446 miles (718 km) to the S (172°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Quoting 458. ncstorm:
the 12z CMC takes Karen into western LA then swings it back east and also has two more TC in the long range..




The model is also showing the storm that the GFS had in the MDR.
Quoting 579. Patrap:

Diurnal Minimal, plus a little sheer ?
Quoting 584. GetReal:


Karen seems to be trying to fire off some new convection north and east, near the COC.
Don't worry Karen,their just jealous that's all.
Quoting 587. Dakster:
Patrap. Where's Hurlo. I think we need him.

Are you getting ready yourself?



I stay ready 24/7/365

Hurlo is coming soon.
I am so disappointed, I just wanted a legit storm to track, this is busting big time LMAO
Quoting 588. CaneHunter031472:


It looks like a drop of water in the middle of the desert. The final result I'm sure will be similar.


That thunderstorm Karen brought over from the Atlnatic last night was full of water. Overdflowed the pool, filled up some empty buckets I had outside.

If that is how wet and sloppy Karen is, look out Northern Gulf Coast.


Some reds beginning to reappear near the center.
Quoting 554. scottsvb:
StormTrackerScott doesn't need to be banned but he needs to learn to not overdue things and scare people and making false posts
It is a bit tiring when a person's forecasts are always super-optimistic as far as intensity and genesis or all too often paints storms coming in their own direction, but it is an open forum for varying thoughts to be expressed so they have every right to speak their minds.

However is it somewhat tasteless, IMO, to be known for a 'broken record' forecasting style of optimism to then take one of the few instances of that forecast being partially correct and acting like the next best thing to sliced baked goods.

This is also a recurring theme. Forgetting the busts, but passing out crows when you think you're right...

598. SLU
If this were a boxing match, the WPAC would knockout the Atlantic with one single blow.

WPAC




Atlantic
..
Quoting 593. Patrap:


I stay ready 24/7/365

Hurlo is coming soon.


The Few, The Proud, The Patrapians...

Good to know...
601. txjac
Quoting 561. Xyrus2000:
I think 2013 is the year of the exhibitionist. How many storms have we had this year that took all their clothes off and became nekid swirls?

Karen been around for less than a day and she's already taking her clothes off as well. Maybe the storms are trying to tell us something, or maybe this is their "Woodstock" year. ;)


It's a Miley year!
I'm betting Recon finds a slightly weaker Karen. Although the SW shear and dry air has hurt her, she is trying to fire convection on the NE side of the COC. She's fighting, but like many others have said, it's wait and see at this point.
Quoting 601. txjac:


It's a Miley year!


Are the storms twerking too?
Quoting 582. MississippiWx:
Ohhh the GFS huggers. Lol.
I saw this coming because GFS isn't doing that great with Houston in WxChallenge
We might have to kick the under 18 crowd out if karen gets a bit more naked.....ta da da boom!
Quoting 602. Naga5000:
I'm betting Recon finds a slightly weaker Karen. Although the SW shear and dry air has hurt her, she is trying to fire convection on the NE side of the COC. She's fighting, but like many others have said, it's wait and see at this point.

Try not to anthropomorphize inanimate objects; they don't like it.
That's three seasons in a row that we've had storms that failed to ramp up as expected. I'm not convinced that all the 'usual suspects' suppressing factors, such as shear, dry air etc are to blame.

I've a feeling the recent change in jet stream activity may be behind it.
The GFDL continues the westward swing in the models today.

Try not to anthropomorphize inanimate objects; they don't like it.


dayum...and "it" spelled it right to boot.......can i get a rimshot?
This is not about "us"; it's about a threatening tropical storm in the Gulf that is going to make landfall/affect "people" at some point. Please keep that in perspective.

No one on here is going to win a Nobel Prize for tropical forecasting in the foreseeable future.
611. LafLA
Quoting 605. ricderr:
We might have to kick the under 18 crowd out if karen gets a bit more naked.....ta da da boom!


she is nekkid already
Quoting 604. Bluestorm5:
I saw this coming because GFS isn't doing that great with Houston in WxChallenge


Tell 'em, Kyle.
Well, STS and I got put into time out. Penance has been served by both of us.

Apologies if anyone may misconstrued our discussion as anything personal, it was not intended that way. I have already made that clear to STS.

A simple disagreement on what was and has been forecast - and what will and will not happen with Karen, that's all.
I think the GFS intensifys Karen due to her movement more NE and into the convection.thus dropping the pressures and increasing the winds. This depends alot on her direction along with the upper wind flow direction. Her moving Saturday NE or even ENE at wobbles will help her...but there still will be some shear as the upper winds will be moving faster than her pace as she approaches the panhandle.
Quoting 608. MississippiWx:
The GFDL continues the westward swing in the models today.



It looks like some of the models are catching on to the observation made yesterday that the front is hanging up over NW Texas and will not arrive in timeto cause a more NE turn near the coast.
click for loop..
Quoting 606. DrMickey:

Try not to anthropomorphize inanimate objects; they don't like it.
Not to step on any toes but a TS is not inanimate since it is spinning etc.
618. yoboi
what is the ACE for Karen???
Quoting 609. ricderr:
Try not to anthropomorphize inanimate objects; they don't like it.


dayum...and "it" spelled it right to boot.......can i get a rimshot?



It looks like some of the models are catching on to the observation made yesterday that the front is hanging up over NW Texas and will not arrive in timeto cause a more NE turn near the coast

aye laddie....here in the badlands of texas forecast has given us an extra day of cold as the front will linger......takes tampa out of the picture i'm afraid...but may i still say


tampa wants her cat 5 karen and all should hunker down...hunker down


thank you doda!
NBC News
FEMA begins to recall employees idled by the three-day-old government shutdown as the Gulf Coast braces for potentially damaging tropical storm Karen, the White House says. More: http://nbcnews.to/1dY4cGr
Not to step on any toes but a TS is not inanimate since it is spinning etc.




yeah...but you have to give him props for utilizing a 5 syllable word....boy must be good at scrabble
Thanks Pat..

I like this one.

Quoting 608. MississippiWx:
The GFDL continues the westward swing in the models today.


Right...the front/trough effects will be a little delayed the way it's looking on the SAT. Looking more like a SC to SE Louisiana landfall but probably fairly dry.
www.portlight.org

Tropical Storm Karen aiming for the Gulf coast.




We are watching and reaching out to stakeholder groups, who are beginning to look at shelter and transportation access issues in the Watch areas along the Northern Gulf Coast.


At 1PM CDT Tropical Storm KAREN

...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 3
Location: 22.9°N 88.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph






Here is the latest impact information for Tropical Storm Karen. Biggest impacts for the local area will be across extreme SE LA and coastal MS. Look for winds 35-45 mph with some hurricane force gusts possible in the hurricane watch area, 2-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible, and tides 2-4 ft in the TS Watch area (including Lake Pontchartrain) and 4-6 ft in the Hurricane Watch area. Highest tides will be along east and southeast facing shores. Winds will be higher over the coastal waters - in the 40-50 kt range with higher gusts -and seas will rise up to 15 ft.


If and when shelters open in the watch areas,...


Anyone with shelter issues can contact Paul Timmons, "Presslord" thru wu mail or the FB link,or by post here in the Portlight wunderblog.


Portlight/FaceBook


Send a donation today via Check or use the PayPal Button on the top of the page.


Together we will make a difference.



Another plane enroute.
if only it had convection cause the structure is good.
Quoting 583. StormTrackerScott:


You should be banned as my post aren't false and I wasn't scaring anyone. I said this would become a hurricane and it will soon. I just love how some come on here and start up trouble and I get banned. However you have TWC saying a hurricane could hit the Central Gulf Coast and now is the time to prepare and that's the samething I said yesterday. So I guess when TWC says it that's fine.



let it go Scott..dont you realize they want you to argue..posts your maps and keep it moving..
18:20:30Z 22.850N 88.317W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 388 meters
(~ 1,273 feet) 1002.6 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg) - From 247° at 10 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 11.5 mph)
The front is letting me down...

Quoting 582. MississippiWx:
Ohhh the GFS huggers. Lol.


Debby..:)


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:21Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12

Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 14

18:20:30Z 22.850N 88.317W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 388 meters
(~ 1,273 feet) 1002.6 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg) - From 247° at 10 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 11.5 mph) 23.8°C
(~ 74.8°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 18.2 knots (~ 20.9 mph)
181.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 446 miles (717 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 18:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 151 miles (244 km) to the NW (321°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
T.C.F.A.
12L/TS/K/CX
Quoting 632. ncstorm:


Debby..:)


K. One storm.
On minute it has great convection but terrible structure the next great structure but terrible convection..HA.. Maybe its just going through its stages.. It does look like its trying to build convection around the center.. Time will tell....img src="">
Outflow boundaries galore.

Quoting 628. SuperStorm093:
if only it had convection cause the structure is good.
hurry up and wait
639. txjac
US capital on lockdown, shots fired
Quoting 637. 1900hurricane:
Outflow boundaries galore.



It's just a wee bit dry surrounding the storm.
Quoting 634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
12L/TS/K/CX


Hey Keeper :o) That's a heck of a Cloud Band that is pushing out from under the canopy of Clouds :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 637. 1900hurricane:
Outflow boundaries galore.



Dry air and shear taking its toll.
AL, 12, 2013100318, , BEST, 0, 229N, 883W, 55, 1003, TS


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:30Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 15

18:30:30Z 22.850N 88.317W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 384 meters
(~ 1,260 feet) 1002.6 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg) - From 260° at 15 knots
(From the W at ~ 17.2 mph) 23.3°C
(~ 73.9°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 18.3 knots (~ 21.1 mph)
122.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 150 miles (241 km) to the NW (322°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 18:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 151 miles (244 km) to the NW (321°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
18:27:00Z 22.933N 88.250W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 382 meters
(~ 1,253 feet) 1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg) - From 183° at 8 knots
(From the S at ~ 9.2 mph)
Quoting 647. Patrap:


Yea Pat we are getting a "Small" Thunderstorm out in Mobile Bay right now.... Just forming

Taco :o)
Quoting 639. txjac:
US capital on lockdown, shots fired


uh, oh...someone finally too frustrated with current government inaction?? A non-essential employee??/ This is just so wrong. What is wrong with our country and guns and shooting innocent folks? My heart just aches.
Quoting 642. taco2me61:


Hey Keeper :o) That's a heck of a Cloud Band that is pushing out from under the canopy of Clouds :o)

Taco :o)
she did a push northward as well
1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg)

Quoting 648. taco2me61:


Yea Pat we are getting a "Small" Thunderstorm out in Mobile Bay right now.... Just forming

Taco :o)


I can see the Storm Tops overlooking the Superdome outside, looking South, S east too.

A change is in the air here, has gone very August like.

U can smell it.
Kermit is headed out to Karen too.
pressures.dropping
outer fringes..


Quoting 653. Patrap:


I can see the Storm Tops overlooking the Superdome outside, looking South, S east too.

A change is in the air here, has gone very August like.

U can smell it.

I thought I was the only one to "Smell It".... You are so right, it is in the Air :o)

Taco :o)
she's got a feeder going up over TCHP waters now along nw carb racing north into centre of the system
Click for loop
just a face in the clouds

Quoting 649. GatorWX:
dont make that right turn karen
Pressure is dropping :)
38.0 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 643. daddyjames:


Dry air and shear taking its toll.


I wish I had a dollar for every time someone has posted these same words on this forum.
seems to be firing new storms near the center....HH finding lower pressures....


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:40Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 16

18:40:30Z 22.567N 87.883W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 426 meters
(~ 1,398 feet) 1007.5 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 202° at 41 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 47.1 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 149 miles (240 km) to the NW (321°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 18:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 119 miles (192 km) between the NW and NNW (326°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
673. 7544
Quoting 664. LargoFl:
dont make that right turn karen


bams not given in even turning karen to the right further south lol
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.1%

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropi cal-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qgH7hC 6g7Mrr3sWV.99
Close, but no cigar





AL, 12, 2013100318, , BEST, 0, 229N, 883W, 55, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,
18:36:00Z 22.717N 88.033W 960.1 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 402 meters
(~ 1,319 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 208° at 45 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 51.7 mph)
While we observe Karem:

Reports of multiple shots fired on Capitol Hill in Washington near the Senate Hart Building, police say.

There are unconfirmed reports of an officer injured.


Dry air closing on Karem

Quoting 671. washingaway:
Dang, Karen in that loop looks like a slug that someone put salt on. The entire season has been that way. Thankfully. Although it would have been nice to get a TS into central Texas.
Quoting 669. NOLALawyer:


I wish I had a dollar for every time someone has posted these same words on this forum.


This year especially. I think it'll briefly be a 'cane, but agree with others that this will be nothing but a blustery fall day on the Gulf coast - with a little associated wave action in the ocean.

Nothing that anyone living in a coastal region would expect to experience every now and then.



wind speeds are in KM/HR
Quoting 673. 7544:


bams not given in even turning karen to the right further south lol
yeah and its october when its supposed to make that righthand turn which is why im watching it closely.
Quoting 679. sunlinepr:
Reports of multiple shots fired on Capitol Hill in Washington near the Senate Hart Building, police say.

Unconfirmed shooter in custody and one police officer injured.
Quoting 670. hurricanehanna:
seems to be firing new storms near the center....HH finding lower pressures....


I thought this might happen. I mentioned earlier that she might re-group once she starts to move away from land. She made a pretty good job North at the last advisory so now we'll see what happens.
Quoting 682. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



wind speeds are in KM/HR
whats 110 km?
img src="">
Do not take your eye off of ol' Jerry. Karen's a cutie...but Jerry!!!!!!!!
Quoting 669. NOLALawyer:


I wish I had a dollar for every time someone has posted these same words on this forum.


Great Avatar,
like a molting cicada..



..see if she can rebuild her exo
House and Senate locked down and members told to "hunker down". Reports of multiple shots fired. Reports that this started at the White House. A car tried to breach the perimeter and then car headed to capital hill.
Quoting 686. LargoFl:
whats 110 km?
68.35 mph
White House not on lock down but Pennsylvania Avenue barricaded and closed.
Where is the protective anticyclone? Shear is making itself known right now
Quoting 692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
68.35 mph
TY keeper
Quoting 694. GatorWX:
sure looks like its being blown towards florida
Man, no kidding, that's a monster LTO (low level thunderstorm outflow) boundary racing out to the N / NW as tstms collapse from dry air ingestion.

Ain't breaking my heart seeing it struggle!
Under TS Watch here and while Karen bears close watching, from my SE LA perspective so far appears far less a threat than we've experienced in multitude of October storms. Today's Oct 3rd date alone marks anniversary of destructive strikes on Louisiana by both Hurricane Lili 2002 and far worse Cat 3 Hurricane Hilda in 1964. The latter was the first time I recall trees completely stripped of leaves, agricultural crops totally flattened, widespread structural damage... Only to be repeated a year later with Betsy, which garnered more attention with NOLA impact. Hilda's wrath was virtually forgotten.
Well, it has been so long, and now we get a RETARDED storm. Hey, the Doc said it himself, TS Karen is going to be retarded.
Quote: "...the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development..."Well, wouldn't it be LMAO hilarious if after all the wait for something to watch this year,....it decided to run off through the straits of FL and become a mere... ..... .... FISH STORM!!!   (Haha, that would be great!)Well, what else could a RETARD storm do?  Maybe it would somehow take a run at Houston, TX -- it could probably actually reach it before that cold front makes it through, and if stalling out against it could maybe add a bit more rain to it all.  Have fun.  Been busy lately in RL, so might tend to skip out on this one, here.

Parting is such sweet sorrow! Adieu Karen... Maybe next time....
Quoting 694. GatorWX:
vanishing convection.... gone...
18:41:00Z 22.550N 87.850W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 431 meters
(~ 1,414 feet) 1007.6 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 200° at 41 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 47.1 mph) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.1%
18:41:30Z 22.533N 87.833W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 430 meters
(~ 1,411 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 201° at 41 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 47.1 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.1%
18:42:00Z 22.517N 87.817W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 429 meters
(~ 1,407 feet) 1007.9 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 200° at 41 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 47.1 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 37 knots*
(~ 42.5 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 37.0 knots* (~ 42.5 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 90.2%*
18:42:30Z 22.500N 87.800W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 439 meters
(~ 1,440 feet) 1008.1 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 197° at 40 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 46.0 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 37.0 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 92.5%
18:43:00Z 22.483N 87.783W 959.0 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) 1008.3 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 198° at 39 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 44.8 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 35.1 knots (~ 40.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 90.0%
18:43:30Z 22.467N 87.767W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) 1008.5 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 200° at 38 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 43.7 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 36.0 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 94.7%
18:44:00Z 22.450N 87.750W 959.6 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) 1008.6 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 201° at 38 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 43.7 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 21.0°C
(~ 69.8°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 35.1 knots (~ 40.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 92.3%
18:44:30Z 22.433N 87.733W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 202° at 37 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 42.5 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 34.1 knots (~ 39.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 92.1%
18:45:00Z 22.417N 87.717W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 203° at 37 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 42.5 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 94.6%
18:45:30Z 22.400N 87.700W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 446 meters
(~ 1,463 feet) 1009.1 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 200° at 37 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 42.5 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 91.9%
18:46:00Z 22.383N 87.683W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 199° at 35 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 40.2 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 20.2°C
(~ 68.4°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 32.1 knots (~ 36.9 mph)
91.7%
18:46:30Z 22.367N 87.667W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 197° at 35 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 40.2 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 19.5°C
(~ 67.1°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 32.0 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
91.4%
18:47:00Z 22.350N 87.650W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 445 meters
(~ 1,460 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 196° at 36 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 41.4 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
83.3%
18:47:30Z 22.333N 87.633W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 446 meters
(~ 1,463 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 195° at 35 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 40.2 mph) 22.8°C
(~ 73.0°F) 19.3°C
(~ 66.7°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 29.2 knots (~ 33.5 mph)
83.3%
18:48:00Z 22.317N 87.617W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 448 meters
(~ 1,470 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 193° at 33 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 37.9 mph) 23.4°C
(~ 74.1°F) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 29.1 knots (~ 33.5 mph)
88.2%
18:48:30Z 22.283N 87.600W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 201° at 31 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 35.6 mph) 22.9°C
(~ 73.2°F) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 28.2 knots (~ 32.4 mph)
90.9%
18:49:00Z 22.267N 87.583W 960.1 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 206° at 28 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 32.2 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
90.3%
18:49:30Z 22.250N 87.567W 959.6 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 206° at 26 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 29.9 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 20.0°C
(~ 68.0°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 22.3 knots (~ 25.6 mph)
85.7%
18:50:00Z 22.233N 87.550W 959.1 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 203° at 25 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 28.7 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 23.1 knots (~ 26.6 mph)
92.6%
18:50:30Z 22.200N 87.550W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 203° at 23 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 26.4 mph) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 20.2 knots (~ 23.3 mph)
88.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Quoting 607. yonzabam:
That's three seasons in a row that we've had storms that failed to ramp up as expected. I'm not convinced that all the 'usual suspects' suppressing factors, such as shear, dry air etc are to blame.

I've a feeling the recent change in jet stream activity may be behind it.
Expect to see more blogging and commenting on this pattern change in the "post-season." We laypersons, or even the lower-level non-research mets are unlikely to figure it out, but Dr. Masters and the other research-oriented climate and meteorology scientists will take on the challenge. (Of course there will be at least a couple of super-egos here claiming that they found the answers before the experts!)

Then the we can bicker and squabble over differences of opinions between the "experts" in the this comments section.

Actually, I'm curious as to what the climate and met research scientists will come up with, and what the evidence will be.


Karen is trying to create some new convection near the COC.


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:50Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 17

18:50:30Z 22.200N 87.550W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 203° at 23 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 26.4 mph) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 20.2 knots (~ 23.3 mph)
88.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 117 miles (188 km) between the NW and NNW (326°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 18:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 86 miles (139 km) to the NNW (328°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
That lower level "outflow" on the vis loops is actually the storm trying to eject the dry air being en-trained into the circulation. Same process going on as yesterday; trying to fight off and eject the the dry air. It's a delicate balancing act right now between the dry air and attempts to re-fire convection and create a more symmetrical moisture bubble around the coc.
Quoting 702. sunlinepr:
vanishing convection.... gone...


It's trying...

*loop
Quoting 653. Patrap:


I can see the Storm Tops overlooking the Superdome outside, looking South, S east too.

A change is in the air here, has gone very August like.

U can smell it.


That is the shrimp fleet returning to port, Pat. :)
Quoting 607. yonzabam:
That's three seasons in a row that we've had storms that failed to ramp up as expected. I'm not convinced that all the 'usual suspects' suppressing factors, such as shear, dry air etc are to blame.

I've a feeling the recent change in jet stream activity may be behind it.


Actually, I have spent a lot of time this season watching the windshear on storms. Shear has been tremendous in action against the storms this season, time after time. Therefore, that factor cannot lightly be tossed aside. Not sure what it was like last year or the year before that too much now.
Reports indicate the shooter was a woman! Hell hath no fury.......
There was no shooter,

Woman tried to ram the White House gate with her Auto. She then hit a DC Police Officer , and then was Killed near the Hart Senate Office Bldg by pursuing officers.
720. VR46L
Quoting 700. WalkingInTheSun:
Well, it has been so long, and now we get a RETARDED storm. Hey, the Doc said it himself, TS Karen is going to be retarded.
Quote: "...the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development..."Well, wouldn't it be LMAO hilarious if after all the wait for something to watch this year,....it decided to run off through the straits of FL and become a mere... ..... .... FISH STORM!!!   (Haha, that would be great!)Well, what else could a RETARD storm do?  Maybe it would somehow take a run at Houston, TX -- it could probably actually reach it before that cold front makes it through, and if stalling out against it could maybe add a bit more rain to it all.  Have fun.  Been busy lately in RL, so might tend to skip out on this one, here.



All the Hype she must be reminding folk of Bonnie .......

Incident over...lockdown lifted....1 capital police officer taken to hospital. Woman got out of her car with gun and shots exchanged with Capital police. Unknown condition of shooter.
Lordy, info is like jello sometimes.
Come back?

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
18:51:00Z 22.183N 87.533W 959.1 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 205° at 22 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 25.3 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 20.7°C
(~ 69.3°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 15.6 knots (~ 17.9 mph)
70.8%
18:51:30Z 22.167N 87.517W 959.8 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) 1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 214° at 21 knots
(From between the SSW and SW at ~ 24.1 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 20.9°C
(~ 69.6°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 18.1 knots (~ 20.9 mph)
86.4%
18:52:00Z 22.150N 87.500W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 218° at 18 knots
(From the SW at ~ 20.7 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 19.8 knots (~ 22.8 mph)
110.0%
18:52:30Z 22.117N 87.483W 959.9 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1009.1 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 210° at 17 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 19.5 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 17.9 knots (~ 20.6 mph)
105.3%
18:53:00Z 22.100N 87.467W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 444 meters
(~ 1,457 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 202° at 21 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 24.1 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 36 knots*
(~ 41.4 mph*) 32 mm/hr*
(~ 1.26 in/hr*) 29.1 knots* (~ 33.4 mph*)
138.5%*
18:53:30Z 22.083N 87.450W 958.8 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 445 meters
(~ 1,460 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 180° at 27 knots
(From the S at ~ 31.0 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 33 mm/hr
(~ 1.30 in/hr) 31.4 knots (~ 36.1 mph)
116.1%
18:54:00Z 22.067N 87.433W 958.8 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 186° at 30 knots
(From the S at ~ 34.5 mph) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 21.0°C
(~ 69.8°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph) 19 mm/hr
(~ 0.75 in/hr) 45.9 knots (~ 52.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 153.1%
18:54:30Z 22.067N 87.417W 958.6 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 185° at 29 knots
(From the S at ~ 33.3 mph) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 49.3 knots (~ 56.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 170.0%
18:55:00Z 22.050N 87.400W 959.9 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 448 meters
(~ 1,470 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 186° at 30 knots
(From the S at ~ 34.5 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 30 knots*
(~ 34.5 mph*) 10 mm/hr*
(~ 0.39 in/hr*) 30.0 knots* (~ 34.5 mph*)
100.0%*
18:55:30Z 22.033N 87.367W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 183° at 31 knots
(From the S at ~ 35.6 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
100.0%
18:56:00Z 22.017N 87.350W 959.5 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 181° at 30 knots
(From the S at ~ 34.5 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 29.1 knots (~ 33.4 mph)
96.9%
18:56:30Z 22.000N 87.317W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 179° at 28 knots
(From the S at ~ 32.2 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
100.0%
18:57:00Z 22.000N 87.300W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 446 meters
(~ 1,463 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 178° at 29 knots
(From the S at ~ 33.3 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 27.1 knots (~ 31.1 mph)
93.3%
18:57:30Z 21.983N 87.283W 959.6 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) 1009.4 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 172° at 30 knots
(From the S at ~ 34.5 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.4 mph)
96.8%
18:58:00Z 21.967N 87.267W 958.6 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 449 meters
(~ 1,473 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 175° at 29 knots
(From the S at ~ 33.3 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
100.0%
18:58:30Z 21.967N 87.233W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 444 meters
(~ 1,457 feet) 1009.4 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 167° at 30 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 34.5 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 23.6 knots (~ 27.2 mph)
78.8%
18:59:00Z 21.950N 87.217W 958.8 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 167° at 31 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 35.6 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 24.4 knots (~ 28.1 mph)
78.8%
18:59:30Z 21.933N 87.200W 958.8 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 448 meters
(~ 1,470 feet) 1009.7 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 165° at 29 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 33.3 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 26.3 knots (~ 30.2 mph)
90.6%
19:00:00Z 21.917N 87.183W 959.0 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 172° at 28 knots
(From the S at ~ 32.2 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
100.0%
19:00:30Z 21.900N 87.167W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) 1009.4 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 164° at 29 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 33.3 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 27.1 knots (~ 31.2 mph)
93.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 18:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 85 miles (136 km) to the NNW (328°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
At 19:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 56 miles (91 km) to the NNW (338°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
watching karen turn into a hurricane surprised she has not generated banding showers near floridas left coast.
Quoting 723. sunlinepr:
Dry air going away.
18:53:30Z 26.400N 85.367W 550.9 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,135 meters
(~ 16,847 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 140° at 14 knots
(From the SE at ~ 16.1 mph) -1.8°C
(~ 28.8°F) -2.1°C
(~ 28.2°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 22.0 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
157.1%
18:54:00Z 26.383N 85.400W 552.5 mb
(~ 16.32 inHg) 5,115 meters
(~ 16,781 feet) 1012.5 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 139° at 12 knots
(From the SE at ~ 13.8 mph) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) -2.1°C
(~ 28.2°F) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 21.2 knots (~ 24.4 mph)
176.9%
18:54:30Z 26.367N 85.450W 550.1 mb
(~ 16.24 inHg) 5,148 meters
(~ 16,890 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 143° at 15 knots
(From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph) -2.2°C
(~ 28.0°F) -4.0°C
(~ 24.8°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.2 knots (~ 24.4 mph)
141.2%
18:55:00Z 26.350N 85.483W 551.1 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,132 meters
(~ 16,837 feet) 1012.6 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 138° at 17 knots
(From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph) -1.9°C
(~ 28.6°F) -5.5°C
(~ 22.1°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.7 knots (~ 25.0 mph)
127.8%
18:55:30Z 26.333N 85.517W 550.9 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,138 meters
(~ 16,857 feet) 1012.5 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 141° at 18 knots
(From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph) -1.6°C
(~ 29.1°F) -10.3°C
(~ 13.5°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.0 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
127.8%
18:56:00Z 26.317N 85.567W 550.7 mb
(~ 16.26 inHg) 5,141 meters
(~ 16,867 feet) 1012.7 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 143° at 18 knots
(From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph) -1.8°C
(~ 28.8°F) -10.7°C
(~ 12.7°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
116.7%
18:56:30Z 26.300N 85.600W 553.0 mb
(~ 16.33 inHg) 5,104 meters
(~ 16,745 feet) 1013.0 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 140° at 18 knots
(From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) -4.9°C
(~ 23.2°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
100.0%
18:57:00Z 26.267N 85.633W 552.8 mb
(~ 16.32 inHg) 5,109 meters
(~ 16,762 feet) 1012.7 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 144° at 16 knots
(From the SE at ~ 18.4 mph) -1.9°C
(~ 28.6°F) -5.7°C
(~ 21.7°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
100.0%
18:57:30Z 26.250N 85.683W 551.0 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,134 meters
(~ 16,844 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 148° at 15 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph) -2.3°C
(~ 27.9°F) -3.3°C
(~ 26.1°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
120.0%
18:58:00Z 26.233N 85.717W 551.3 mb
(~ 16.28 inHg) 5,134 meters
(~ 16,844 feet) 1013.0 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 144° at 15 knots
(From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph) -2.3°C
(~ 27.9°F) -3.3°C
(~ 26.1°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
120.0%
18:58:30Z 26.217N 85.750W 551.1 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,132 meters
(~ 16,837 feet) 1012.8 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 146° at 17 knots
(From between the SE and SSE at ~ 19.5 mph) -2.2°C
(~ 28.0°F) -3.4°C
(~ 25.9°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 23.6 knots (~ 27.2 mph)
138.9%
18:59:00Z 26.200N 85.783W 551.6 mb
(~ 16.29 inHg) 5,126 meters
(~ 16,818 feet) 1013.0 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 144° at 19 knots
(From the SE at ~ 21.8 mph) -2.3°C
(~ 27.9°F) -2.4°C
(~ 27.7°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 34.2 knots (~ 39.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 180.0%
18:59:30Z 26.183N 85.833W 553.3 mb
(~ 16.34 inHg) 5,102 meters
(~ 16,739 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 129° at 17 knots
(From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph) -2.2°C
(~ 28.0°F) -2.2°C
(~ 28.0°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 32.1 knots (~ 36.9 mph)
188.9%
19:00:00Z 26.167N 85.867W 551.1 mb
(~ 16.27 inHg) 5,136 meters
(~ 16,850 feet) 1012.8 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 128° at 18 knots
(From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph) -2.1°C
(~ 28.2°F) -3.1°C
(~ 26.4°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 31.3 knots (~ 36.0 mph)
173.7%
19:00:30Z 26.150N 85.900W 553.2 mb
(~ 16.34 inHg) 5,102 meters
(~ 16,739 feet) 1012.6 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 120° at 19 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 21.8 mph) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) -2.9°C
(~ 26.8°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 29.4 knots (~ 33.9 mph)
155.0%
19:01:00Z 26.133N 85.950W 551.6 mb
(~ 16.29 inHg) 5,123 meters
(~ 16,808 feet) 1012.2 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 114° at 21 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 24.1 mph) -1.7°C
(~ 28.9°F) -4.1°C
(~ 24.6°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 29.6 knots (~ 34.0 mph)
140.9%
19:01:30Z 26.117N 85.983W 552.5 mb
(~ 16.32 inHg) 5,114 meters
(~ 16,778 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 118° at 25 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 28.7 mph) -1.6°C*
(~ 29.1°F*) -* 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.9 knots (~ 30.9 mph)
107.4%
19:02:00Z 26.100N 86.017W 551.2 mb
(~ 16.28 inHg) 5,129 meters
(~ 16,827 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 113° at 23 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) -2.5°C
(~ 27.5°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 22.1 knots (~ 25.4 mph)
96.0%
19:02:30Z 26.083N 86.067W 551.9 mb
(~ 16.30 inHg) 5,119 meters
(~ 16,795 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 114° at 22 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 25.3 mph) -1.2°C
(~ 29.8°F) -5.1°C
(~ 22.8°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
95.5%
19:03:00Z 26.067N 86.100W 550.6 mb
(~ 16.26 inHg) 5,135 meters
(~ 16,847 feet) 1011.3 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 115° at 22 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 25.3 mph) -1.7°C
(~ 28.9°F) -4.8°C
(~ 23.4°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 21 knots*
(~ 24.1 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 20.1 knots* (~ 23.1 mph*)
91.3%*
Quoting 698. LargoFl:
sure looks like its being blown towards florida


Lotta moisture, llc still pressing on nw



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:00Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 18

19:00:30Z 21.900N 87.167W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) 1009.4 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 164° at 29 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 33.3 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 27.1 knots (~ 31.2 mph)
93.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 85 miles (136 km) to the NNW (328°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 19:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 56 miles (91 km) to the NNW (338°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Quoting 705. Xulonn:
Expect to see more blogging and commenting on this pattern change in the "post-season." We laypersons, or even the lower-level non-research mets are unlikely to figure it out, but Dr. Masters and the other research-oriented climate and meteorology scientists will take on the challenge. (Of course there will be at least a couple of super-egos here claiming that the found the answers before the experts!)

Then the we can bicker and squabble over differences of opinions between the "experts" in the this comments section.

Actually, I'm curious as to what the climate and met research scientists will come up with, and what the evidence will be.

Um, the most obvious answer is the water is not as warm as we think it is...
Not jumping the gun yet, as we have to wait on recon over the next 12-24 hours, but my Apalachicola fishing trip "might" be back on Sunday.....
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:10Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 19

19:10:30Z 22.167N 86.917W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 449 meters
(~ 1,473 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 143° at 50 knots
(From the SE at ~ 57.5 mph) 19.9°C
(~ 67.8°F) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 52 knots
(~ 59.8 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 37.5 knots (~ 43.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 55 miles (88 km) to the NNW (338°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 19:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 71 miles (114 km) to the N (356°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Quoting 654. PedleyCA:
Kermit is headed out to Karen too.


Did someone mention my name???



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 999.4mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.1 2.1
my pic dosn't work:)
well its 2013 like we said.
Quoting GatorWX:


Lotta moisture, llc still pressing on nw


It really depends on that trough now. If Karen continues on this path, it will come ashore in Louisiana, If that trough can get here soon enough, it will turn it NE toward Mobile and the Panhandle. This one will go down to the wire, but at least it's not some monster hurricane.
Karen is a fighter and still gets an A for effort. Currently fighting 20 knots of moderate sheer on her N-NW flank (Link) and the dry air but trying to wrap some convection around the coc at the lower levels.
I do understand the excitement concerning these storms and the oh heck nothing to it when they don't live up to the hype.
But if you have been in the eye of the storm and it has cost you or loved ones their home or life, then you are glad to hear they are diminished in strength.
BUT...stay alert... in '95 went to bed about 10pm and Opal was in Bay of Campeche, woke up about 4 to hear it was just a couple hours off shore from P'Cola at Cat 5. It turned east and hit Destin, weakened to about a 3.
My experience with property lost and lost of life was with Camille and Katrina. I recently read with great interest on this site about the different storm surge in those two storms. It confirmed my experience as I was located in exactly the same place for both, as complete as to floor and carpet level. Steve Lyons, who had a blog on Weather Channel then, said as much that I was an idiot to claim that Katrina surge was greater by 5.5 feet or so. Camille dampened the carpet a couple of feet inside the closed front door...Katrina took out the door and windows and the water was up to my nose, I'm five nine. Waves coming in through the south windows splashing over my head.
It was a different surge though, Camille like a wave on the beach washing in and draining out immediately. Katrina was like filling a bowl with water with a sieve in the bottom, several hours of submersion, watching debris lines on the wall for evidence a falling flooding.
Used to talk to Indianrivguy years ago as eyetooth tom, then couldn't sign on, guess forgot password, so became E.T. 1. Anyway Hi, Indianrivguy. Remember back then we could converse on this site directly without the blogging, guess that not possible now. Did see on blog couple months ago you were in Atlanta for wastewater runoff control in Indian River. Right?
I try to stay in tune. :)


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:20Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 20

19:20:30Z 22.800N 86.950W 959.5 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 445 meters
(~ 1,460 feet) 1010.2 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 141° at 53 knots
(From the SE at ~ 60.9 mph) 19.7°C
(~ 67.5°F) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 7 mm/hr

(~ 0.28 in/hr) 43.4 knots (~ 49.9 mph)


Tropical Storm 81.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 73 miles (117 km) to the N (356°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 19:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 115 miles (184 km) to the N (356°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

USAF and NOAA recon.
751. HCW
HWRF has the right idea but a little too far east

Time: 19:20:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7667N 86.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.8 mb (~ 28.34 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 443 meters (~ 1,453 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.1 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 51 knots (From the SE at ~ 58.6 mph)
Air Temp: 19.7°C (~ 67.5°F)
Dew Pt: 19.3°C (~ 66.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
Here comes the intensification. Also I just heard that if this becomes a hurricane and people need Government assistance that because of the shut down they will not be helped. Is this true?

Experimental FIM-9 says Panhandle.

Quoting 753. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes the intensification. Also I just heard that if this becomes a hurricane and people need Government assistance that because of the shut down they will not be helped. Is this true?



Not true. See FEMA's website.
System east of the Windwards looks interesting.

I WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT R.Iiiiiinnnnnng



LOOP
19:14:00Z 22.383N 86.917W 959.8 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 144° at 56 knots
(From the SE at ~ 64.4 mph)
It does appear to be trying to fire some storms near the center again. Will have to see if its just a temporary thing or if it starts a trend and can rebuild over the center. My guess is the new storms will continue to be sheared off as they develop.
Afternoon all. As I expected per recon data last night, Karen was named earlier this morning.


As to the storm itself, dry air and the persistent movement into shear to the west are going to be a very limiting factor. I don't think this storm will dissipate, but I do believe it would be hard pressed to become a Hurricane before landfall next week.


Regardless, this will be a big rainmaker for the Gulf Coast especially into Mississippi so folks there need to be prepared for flooding. But as these storms go, I don't feel this one will be particularly dangerous, compared to what has happened in the last 10 years or so in the same spots this is nothing. At least as it stands right now.
I really hope no one will need assistance because this Government Shutdown could be problem matic for people that may need assistance from Karen.
Quoting LargoFl:
sure looks like its being blown towards florida/blockquote>
Not without the influence of that front that's supposed to move east and southeast, and that front looks like it's starting to stall as well. The steering currents in the Gulf are almost straight west. Without some change, Karen is going to end up in the BOC and make landfall on the TX/MX border. Seriously, this entire storm and all the models are starting to fall apart fast. If Karen really does take a west path, this will be the failure of 2013...at least so far. :-)
Quoting 760. GeoffreyWPB:


Models now showing high end cat 1 in 36 hours.
wow!
Quoting 755. LAbonbon:


Not true. See FEMA's website.


I just heard it on the news here in Orlando and on the radio boy I hope people won't be caught off guard.
Quoting 765. StormTrackerScott:


Models now showing high end cat 1 in 36 hours.


All I will say is that I respectfully disagree that this will be a high end cat 1 when it reaches the shore.
StormTrackerScott you are such an annoying sensationalist.

Calm down bro.
Time: 19:30:00Z
Coordinates: 23.4N 87.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 450 meters (~ 1,476 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.3 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 55 knots (From the SE at ~ 63.2 mph)
Air Temp: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt: 18.8°C (~ 65.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
Quoting 766. Patrap:



COC is very clear on visible...she looks to be heading NW...I see the GFDL has her right over the city as well..
Quoting 766. Patrap:


Hi

Huge outflow boundary. Dry air indigestion.
Quoting Doss2k:
It does appear to be trying to fire some storms near the center again. Will have to see if its just a temporary thing or if it starts a trend and can rebuild over the center. My guess is the new storms will continue to be sheared off as they develop.

Agree.
And the dry air to the NW and SE is not helping at all.

Karen needs Vitamins, Steroids, the works.
Quoting 736. canyonboy:

Um, the most obvious answer is the water is not as warm as we think it is...
Um, surface water temps, subsurface water temps, heat content of volumes of water are all measured and known quantities. Meteorologists and climatologists know quite precisely that the water temps are, and what the heat content is. Can you imagine Dr. Masters saying "we think" the water temps are such and such in the GOM?

No guessing involved - water temps and heat content are measured precisely and stored in datasets.

It's the complex interaction of many, many variables that makes weather and tropical storm forecasting and predictions such a challenge. I don't even try - I just watch lots of people here flail about and then gloat when they get lucky - although some of you are pretty good at forecasting, and smart enough to say "I'm not sure" when the evidence doesn't support a strong position.
held off as long as I could ***poof***
Quoting 769. StormTrackerScott:


I just heard it on the news here in Orlando and on the radio boy I hope people won't be caught off guard.


Was discussed on the blog earlier. FEMA has recalled some furloughed staff, applications for disaster assistance will not be halted on their website, and response teams are on alert.
seriously no agreement yet.
Kermit

Time: 19:33:00Z
Coordinates: 24.7833N 88.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.1 mb (~ 22.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,554 meters (~ 8,379 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.7 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 102° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: 12.4°C (~ 54.3°F)
Dew Pt: 8.5°C (~ 47.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:32Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 21

19:30:30Z 23.433N 87.000W 959.5 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 137° at 49 knots
(From the SE at ~ 56.3 mph) 19.7°C
(~ 67.5°F) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 53 knots
(~ 60.9 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 39.8 knots (~ 45.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 81.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 117 miles (188 km) to the N (356°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 19:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 339 miles (545 km) to the WSW (257°) from Key West, FL, USA
Quoting 772. BRWeatherGeek:
StormTrackerScott you are such an annoying sensationalist.

Calm down bro.
LOL i think this is his first season tracking these storms.He is just excited gazing at the models and not really looking at anything else.Taking wild guesses at the forecast and running with it.Take him with a grain of salt.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I really hope no one will need assistance because this Government Shutdown could be problem matic for people that may need assistance from Karen.

The states are more than able to provide assistance to their citizens from a storm like Karen. They are supposed to exhaust all their resources before calling for Federal help. As far as Federal resources, "Esssential Services", Scott...like the NHC, FEMA, Corps of Engineers...they are all at work. Only 36% of Federal employees are not at work. What exactly will be "problem matic" for anyone needing help from Karen from the Feds, especially considering this is not the storm of the century.
Quoting 765. StormTrackerScott:


Models now showing high end cat 1 in 36 hours.


one model shows 78mph in 36 hours( from the model,s you posted),that is not high end cat 1.
787. VR46L
Quoting 765. StormTrackerScott:


Models now showing high end cat 1 in 36 hours.



Are you sure that its not showing a transition instead ?



I wish I had a Dollar....LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
789. VR46L
Quoting 776. pottery:

Agree.
And the dry air to the NW and SE is not helping at all.

Karen needs Vitamins, Steroids, the works.



STAND CLEAR!!!!

Quoting 753. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes the intensification. Also I just heard that if this becomes a hurricane and people need Government assistance that because of the shut down they will not be helped. Is this true?



FEMA may be closed at the moment but in the case of peril to the public or property (after the storm) the government will step in.
Karen is quite the disorganized, yet vigorous tropical cyclone.

The story of 2013.
Quoting 763. StormTrackerScott:
I really hope no one will need assistance because this Government Shutdown could be problem matic for people that may need assistance from Karen.


Not to be rude here, but unless someone is living under a piece of loose leaf notebook paper, they should be fine from Karen. A little bit of wind and some rain.

We're not talking Katrina here.
Can someone put up that microwave imagery of the COC that shows it's direction?
795. flsky
I've already been put on standby.
Quoting 780. LAbonbon:


Was discussed on the blog earlier. FEMA has recalled some furloughed staff, applications for disaster assistance will not be halted on their website, and response teams are on alert.
Quoting 763. StormTrackerScott:
I really hope no one will need assistance because this Government Shutdown could be problem matic for people that may need assistance from Karen.


OMG... this is just a little crappy storm...FEMA won't be needed. The Red Cross will handle this just fine.
Quoting 792. nash36:


Not to be rude here, but unless someone is living under a piece of loose leaf notebook paper, they should be fine from Karen. A little bit of wind and some rain.

We're not talking Katrina here.


And that would be the worst case scenario.
798. LafLA
If you will need FEMA for this DUD then you have some major problems.
Quoting 681. daddyjames:


This year especially. I think it'll briefly be a 'cane, but agree with others that this will be nothing but a blustery fall day on the Gulf coast - with a little associated wave action in the ocean.

Nothing that anyone living in a coastal region would expect to experience every now and then.


Except it is going to ruin the first weekend of Cruising The Coast in Biloxi/Gulfport, and it will be more than a "blustery fall day," I suspect.
This is going to be a tricky storm to forecast. Sheared storms usually are.

Some storms dealing with shear produce enough intermittent convection to warm the troposphere and allow for upper-level ridging to develop aloft. This reduces wind shear and allows the storm to strengthen. On the other hand, however, some don't and simply continue to weaken in an unfavorable environment.

The GFS sees the former solution.

802. yoboi
Quoting 765. StormTrackerScott:


Models now showing high end cat 1 in 36 hours.


I wonder how ya would handle a major in the GOM......


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:40Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 22


19:40:30Z 24.050N 87.033W 959.8 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 449 meters
(~ 1,473 feet) 1010.6 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 132° at 44 knots
(From the SE at ~ 50.6 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 33.5 knots (~ 38.5 mph)
76.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 338 miles (544 km) to the WSW (257°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 19:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 333 miles (535 km) to the W (264°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Quoting 787. VR46L:



Are you sure that its not showing a transition instead ?



after landfall helps to enhance precip along the front aiding in a wipespeard rain event till frontal passage completes off the east coast mid atlantic states
Appears to me, at least on the surface and structure, Karen has become much better organized than on the previous recon. The surface circulation has become much more defined and pressures have dropped 2-3mb. Not much support for anything more than a 60mph cyclone yet.
Hurricane Hunter positions right now

Quoting 800. NOLALawyer:


Except it is going to ruin the first weekend of Cruising The Coast in Biloxi/Gulfport, and it will be more than a "blustery fall day," I suspect.


Is that bike related or boat related? Either way, neither would be particularly enjoyable under the conditions forecast, I suppose.

She is looking decent this afternoon. Convection finally starting to wrap around the COC. And it is clearly visible now. It looks like ALL the models are right though..

NO ONE knows where she is headed.

Significant difference versus what we saw when Karen was named earlier. Much tighter circulation. That's a plus for intensification if shear can lessen. GFS is being very consistent with ridging developing over Karen and bringing it to hurricane status.
Quoting 805. CybrTeddy:
Appears to me, at least on the surface and structure, Karen has become much better organized than on the previous recon. The surface circulation has become much more defined and pressures have dropped 2-3mb. Not much support for anything more than a 60mph cyclone yet.


This might be our second hurricane come later tonight or in the am on Friday.
Time: 19:50:30Z
Coordinates: 24.0833N 87.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.8 mb (~ 28.34 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 447 meters (~ 1,467 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.3 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 128° at 42 knots (From the SE at ~ 48.3 mph)
Air Temp: 21.0°C (~ 69.8°F)
Dew Pt: 17.4°C (~ 63.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
Quoting 812. StormTrackerScott:


This might be our second hurricane come later tonight or in the am on Friday.


third*
Quoting 769. StormTrackerScott:


I just heard it on the news here in Orlando and on the radio boy I hope people won't be caught off guard.

The media is covering the storm well enough, I'm not too worried about those in Karen's path. It will be a Category 1 at peak and will be topped off or weakening at landfall, it will also remain sheared through landfall.
Quoting 808. daddyjames:


Is that bike related or boat related? Either way, neither would be particularly enjoyable under the conditions forecast, I suppose.



it's like 5000 classic cars come to the Coast, it starts Sunday,lasts for 7 days, each city, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, The Pass, D'Iberville and so on have a daily cruise in, but like I said it starts Sunday, yet we do have some cruisers here now
Here is a short blurb from a friend who is a pro-met on what we might expect from Karen. I like his analogy to a strong gusty frontal passage:

The approaching front will direct the storm between Apalachicola and New Orleans, most likely near Mobile Bay. But it won't make much difference since the effect will be widespread. Rain, rain and gusts. Boating interests should take appropriate precautions. It will be like a strong frontal passage with rain and gust across Florida with the "heaviest" weather in the Panhandle of Florida through the weekend. NOT a hurricane. Stay out of water if it is rough for rip currents are possible if surf is rough or high. It will pass and historic sunshine will prevail.
Made a nice jump West


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:50Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 23

19:50:30Z 24.083N 87.267W 959.8 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 128° at 42 knots
(From the SE at ~ 48.3 mph) 21.0°C
(~ 69.8°F) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 35.5 knots (~ 40.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 84.4%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 334 miles (537 km) to the W (264°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 19:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 347 miles (559 km) to the W (265°) from Key West, FL, USA.
96 hr depiction 12 z gfs for mon oct 7

Looks like the updated forecast still shows the front making it down 'in time' (for those of us in LA, anyway)



18z nam out too hr 15

Quoting 816. EllasD:


it's like 5000 classic cars come to the Coast, it starts Sunday,lasts for 7 days, each city, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, The Pass, D'Iberville and so on have a daily cruise in, but like I said it starts Sunday, yet we do have some cruisers here now


Oh sweet. Sorry that the weather won't be cooperating. May want to keep off the beach, as the wind blown sand may not be terribly agreeable with the paint job.
Quoting VR46L:



STAND CLEAR!!!!

LOLOL
That's some interesting rotation in the Bermuda Triangle.
Karen gonna be one butt ugly hurricane if it ever makes it there.
Quoting 825. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z nam out too hr 15

Karen going to visit MoM?
Quoting 830. MiamiHurricanes09:
Karen gonna be one butt ugly hurricane if it ever makes it there.


Ingrid was a fairly ugly hurricane for most of its time as one too, so it fits with the theme. Probably a half-exposed LLC if it becomes one. I'm not holding my breath.
Kermit

Time: 19:53:00Z
Coordinates: 24.05N 88.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 751.6 mb (~ 22.19 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,534 meters (~ 8,314 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.2 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 27 knots (From the ESE at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 12.4°C (~ 54.3°F)
Dew Pt: 12.0°C (~ 53.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
Winds up to 50kts as they penetrate the northeastern semicircle.

200000 2344N 08739W 9592 00445 0098 +196 +195 122054 056 050 009 00
18 z 21hr nam further west this run seems

Quoting 808. daddyjames:


Is that bike related or boat related? Either way, neither would be particularly enjoyable under the conditions forecast, I suppose.



It is car and bike related. Luckily, it is two weekends of action.
Quoting 826. daddyjames:


Oh sweet. Sorry that the weather won't be cooperating. May want to keep off the beach, as the wind blown sand may not be terribly agreeable with the paint job.


most will stay at a Casino, where they have parking garages, I know far less about the weather than most, but it does look like if Karen does make landfall, she will move away from us quickly and we will have a great week for the Cruisers. This is the last big hoo-raw for our tourist season and the Cruisers bring big money here, so you can count on all the cities cleaning up very quickly. As of now there is NO word of nixing Cruising the Coast
Time: 20:00:00Z
Coordinates: 23.7333N 87.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 445 meters (~ 1,460 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 54 knots (From the ESE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C (~ 67.3°F)
Dew Pt: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (~ 0.35 in/hr)
Karen looks to have done little strengthening today. It has, however, deepened a few millibars.
Quoting 839. EllasD:


most will stay at a Casino, where they have parking garages, I know far less about the weather than most, but it does look like if Karen does make landfall, she will move away from us quickly and we will have a great week for the Cruisers. This is the last big hoo-raw for our tourist season and the Cruisers bring big money here, so you can count on all the cities cleaning up very quickly. As of now there is NO word of nixing Cruising the Coast


Good. Hope all have fun (and don't lose too much money).
The coc has also been traveling about due North in the last 3 hours......I am thinking that the track might shift a little to the right in some of the model runs in the am if this trend continues.



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:00Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 24

20:00:30Z 23.717N 87.667W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) 1009.6 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 124° at 56 knots
(From between the ESE and SE at ~ 64.4 mph) 19.4°C
(~ 66.9°F) 19.4°C
(~ 66.9°F) 58 knots
(~ 66.7 mph) 49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 47.3 knots (~ 54.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 84.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 348 miles (560 km) to the W (264°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 20:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 376 miles (605 km) to the W (261°) from Key West, FL, USA.
DO not click this link!
97L has become 97L
You will be sucked into the vortex of an infinite loop.
Meanwhile the CMC shows a Central Atlantic system, normal for it but the GFS joins in





12z Euro--









18z 27hr super cell composite

Pressures down to 998mb.
Quoting 830. MiamiHurricanes09:
Karen gonna be one butt ugly hurricane if it ever makes it there.

Kinda like hurricane Gordon from 2000, just farther west.
Quoting 847. guygee:
DO not click this link!
97L has become 97L
You will be sucked into the vortex of an infinite loop.

LOL. what the heck. xD
Oh hello...

Time: 20:03:00Z
Coordinates: 23.4167N 88.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.0 mb (~ 22.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,477 meters (~ 8,127 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.0 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 99° at 23 knots (From the E at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 15.4°C (~ 59.7°F)
Dew Pt: 13.7°C (~ 56.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots* (~ 43.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
Quoting 847. guygee:
DO not click this link!
97L has become 97L
You will be sucked into the vortex of an infinite loop.


Oh, come on, human nature means that I obviously want to click on the link (resist, resist) :)
Haven't quite pegged the LLC yet, so pressures may be lower still.

Quoting 845. weathermanwannabe:
The coc has also been traveling about due North in the last 3 hours......I am thinking that the track might shift a little to the right in some of the model runs in the am if this trend continues.
NOT true.  Just look at visible sat loop.  Steady N-NorthWest.  Clear as day.  Please don't confuse.
Winds appear to be near 55kts.

200230 2338N 08745W 9591 00436 0086 +193 //// 118058 061 054 006 05

Wpac is donating a bit of moisture for Karen's dry western side?
Quoting 857. HighTideNPcola:

NOT true.  Just look at visible sat loop.  Steady N-NorthWest.  Clear as day.  Please don't confuse.


Not trying to confuse; I am looking at a hi-res close-up at the moment. Looks that way to my eyes....Could be wrong though, or a jog, or a slight trend.

The Hunters will answer my question at some point.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Pressures down to 998mb.

Pretty impressive.
If it wasn't for the dry air I would think it would be a hurricane today.
Shear not helping either.

Oh well. 2013, the Year of the Dry.
Time: 20:06:30Z
Coordinates: 23.4833N 87.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.4 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 413 meters (~ 1,355 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.3 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 65 knots (From the ESE at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C (~ 67.3°F)
Dew Pt: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
Quoting 851. CybrTeddy:
Pressures down to 998mb.


jinkies....Karen is a very determined little lady


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:10Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 25

20:10:30Z 23.333N 88.083W 960.2 mb
(~ 28.35 inHg) 391 meters
(~ 1,283 feet) 1004.1 mb
(~ 29.65 inHg) - From 164° at 52 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 59.8 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 47.3 knots (~ 54.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 90.9%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 378 miles (609 km) to the W (261°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 20:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 407 miles (655 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Race to the middle

Quoting 862. barbamz:

Wpac is donating a bit of moisture for Karen's dry western side?

Good observation!
Starting to get deeper convection firing off right over the CoC.. we'll see if it expands.

Quoting 863. weathermanwannabe:


Not trying to confuse; I am looking at a hi-res close-up at the moment. Looks that way to my eyes....Could be wrong though, or a jog, or a slight trend.

The Hunters will answer my question at some point.
10-4.  Speaking of the LLC, it seems to be moving a little faster than stated, but like you said, HH data will clear that up.
Quoting 847. guygee:
DO not click this link!
97L has become 97L
You will be sucked into the vortex of an infinite loop.


That's some meta stuff right there. :)
Anyone has conditions from western Cuba ?
Quoting 872. HighTideNPcola:

10-4.  Speaking of the LLC, it seems to be moving a little faster than stated, but like you said, HH data will clear that up.


No prob.......Glad to see they are in air doing their job to protect us. God Bless Em.
Quoting 851. CybrTeddy:
Pressures down to 998mb.


Do you think it would be hurricane later today? Thanks!
Now I understand why the young'ens are jonesing


The National Weather Service continues to issue forecasts and warnings, but the primary NOAA and National Weather Service Twitter feeds, with over 250,000 followers, have stopped disseminating information. Not a single update has been posted on either feed since October 1.


Shutdown stopping flow of weather information as dangerous storms threaten nation
Karen is looking like a normal tropical system, as far as shape goes...not like some of the odd looking systems we have had so far....
Interesting.. the winds died off at the lowest pressure reading and picked up again as they moved away. Lowest pressure was 996.5mb.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting.. the winds died off at the lowest pressure reading and picked up again as they moved away.

Would that be the COC then ??
Quoting 778. Xulonn:
Um, surface water temps, subsurface water temps, heat content of volumes of water are all measured and known quantities. Meteorologists and climatologists know quite precisely that the water temps are, and what the heat content is. Can you imagine Dr. Masters saying "we think" the water temps are such and such in the GOM?

No guessing involved - water temps and heat content are measured precisely and stored in datasets.

It's the complex interaction of many, many variables that makes weather and tropical storm forecasting and predictions such a challenge. I don't even try - I just watch lots of people here flail about and then gloat when they get lucky - although some of you are pretty good at forecasting, and smart enough to say "I'm not sure" when the evidence doesn't support a strong position.


No doubt you know much more about the subject than I do about how accurate these measurements are. However, the fact remains that with warmer water one expects more hurricanes and with cooler water one expects fewer hurricanes.
Time: 20:06:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2167N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 751.9 mb (~ 22.20 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,472 meters (~ 8,110 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.5 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 6 knots (From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.9°C (~ 62.4°F)
Dew Pt: 13.1°C (~ 55.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
23.217N 88.467W 751.9 mb
(~ 22.20 inHg) 2,472 meters
(~ 8,110 feet) 996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg) - From 240 at 6 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
They hit the COC nicely
Quoting 881. pottery:

Would that be the COC then ??


Yup, as noted by the definitive windshift.
There are 2 Planes up, please use a ID if rolling HH info.
Time: 20:06:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2167N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 751.9 mb (~ 22.20 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,472 meters (~ 8,110 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.5 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 6 knots (From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.9°C (~ 62.4°F)
Dew Pt: 13.1°C (~ 55.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
The way this season is going it will make a sharp left, then right...then left into Mexico! LOL
Karen would have easily been downgraded to 40-45 knots if we didn't have recon

Quoting 875. pottery:
Anyone has conditions from western Cuba ?


Nothing much going on radar wise

The 12z ECMWF and GFS nail South Dakota with roughly 2 feet of snow. The NAM gives over 6 feet (lol). Winter Storm Atlas is going to be historic. This is a big storm by winter's standards.
didnt realize that Tampa was indeed IN the far outer cone of probability for Karen...
Quoting 874. Patrap:


Slingin' a nice gust front in your direction Pat.
Quoting Patrap:
They hot the COC nicely

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))


hr 45 18z nam
Quoting 890. Stormchaser2007:
Karen would have easily been downgraded to 40-45 knots if we didn't have recon



Well that's why we have recon. First fix was 1001mb, second was 996.5mb, so we're seeing some measure of deepening occurring.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
000
URNT12 KWBC 032022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 03/20:05:51Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
088 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 3082 m
D. 54 kt
E. 015 deg 22 nm
F. 125 deg 45 kt
G. 015 deg 22 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 14 C / 2440 m
J. 17 C / 2443 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0412A KAREN OB 04
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE

MAX FL WIND 45 KT 015/22 20:00:26Z



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:20Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 26

20:20:30Z 23.233N 88.533W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 367 meters
(~ 1,204 feet) 999.9 mb
(~ 29.53 inHg) - From 329° at 11 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 12.6 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 20.0 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
181.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 408 miles (657 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 20:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 437 miles (702 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Quoting 886. CybrTeddy:


Yup, as noted by the definitive windshift.


Learned that one watching the Hunter show on WC. Looks like they found the coc "zero" mark.
Air Force plane has a higher pressure, probably more accurate closer to the ground.

Time: 20:19:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2667N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 360 meters (~ 1,181 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.4 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 1 knots (From the S at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.4°C (~ 74.1°F)
Dew Pt: 22.1°C (~ 71.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 20:05:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°13'N 88°28'W (23.2167N 88.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 433 miles (696 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,082m (10,112ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 45kts (From the SE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,443m (8,015ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) from the flight level center at 20:00:26Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE
Quoting 895. pottery:

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))


Lol!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Now I understand why the young'ens are jonesing


The National Weather Service continues to issue forecasts and warnings, but the primary NOAA and National Weather Service Twitter feeds, with over 250,000 followers, have stopped disseminating information. Not a single update has been posted on either feed since October 1.


Shutdown stopping flow of weather information as dangerous storms threaten nation

Goodness me. No Facebook or Twitter updates at all??? Well, then, it's absolutely impossible for any of us to receive any information as this dangerous storm approaches. Wait...I don't have a Facebook account...or a Twitter account. No wonder I haven't had any idea what's been happening with the weather over the last 50 years.

Geez.....
906. SLU
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.

Quoting 906. SLU:
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.



Excuse me but I live in the direct path of this storm as it is currently forecast so I have no problem with it not strengthening rapidly. I can't believe you're complaining, nobody should wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere just so they have a monster storm to track.
Quoting 905. sar2401:

Goodness me. No Facebook or Twitter updates at all??? Well, then, it's absolutely impossible for any of us to receive any information as this dangerous storm approaches. Wait...I don't have a Facebook account...or a Twitter account. No wonder I haven't had any idea what's been happening with the weather over the last 50 years.

Geez.....
You must be illiterate. He just repeated the fact that the NOAA and NWS twitter feeds have over a quarter of a million followers. Stop it with your stupid political agenda on this blog and go home to RedState.
Adios to Jerry.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
910. SLU
Quoting 907. 69Viking:


Excuse me but I live in the direct path of this storm as it is currently forecast so I have no problem with it not strengthening rapidly. I can't believe you're complaining, nobody should wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere just so they have a monster storm to track.


At no time did I "wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere" so that there would be a "monster storm to track". What I said is a fact. Storms are having difficulty pulling together this year leading to well below average levels of activity. That's why the ACE to date is only 23.4 units whereas the average for this date is 84 units.

Tropical cyclones are a way of life in this part of the world and hence if you're in the path of this storm, be safe.
Ughhh, cmon Karen lets get it together... build that anti-cyclone.
Quoting 895. pottery:

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))
had hitten?
Quoting 913. HurricaneAndre:
Thy anticyclone is to it's south.
Quoting 898. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Just saying . . .
Quoting 908. guygee:
You must be illiterate. He just repeated the fact that the NOAA and NWS twitter feeds have over a quarter of a million followers. Stop it with your stupid political agenda on this blog and go home to RedState.
talk

Talk about political agenda, your a poster child for everything thats wrong with this blog, not to mention the country.
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.
Quoting 916. SouthDadeNative:
talk

Talk about political agenda, your a poster child for everything thats wrong with this blog, not to mention the country.
At least I am on a poster, lol. You are no one to anybody.
nam hr 84 end

Quoting 917. wxdude714:
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.
Quoting 917. wxdude714:
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.


Of course! With the government shutdown it stopped the lasers and voila! Karen formed.
Quoting 906. SLU:
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.

You know what Slu.? I have always read and respected your posts.. This by far is the worst one I have ever read from you.
Quoting 443. Neapolitan:
As most would agree, all other things being equal, higher TCHP is more conducive to TC development than lower TCHP--and Karen is moving from an area with the highest TCHP in the entire Atlantic (greater than 100 kJ) to a strip of the lowest TCHP in the GOM (less than 30 kJ). Yes, TCHP is far from the only factor in TC development. But there's not much energy ahead for our girl, and when combined with the shear and dry air, things don't look good...

tchp


Well, the thing is, TCHP is hard to apply for the gulf properly because its already a shallow body of water. TCHP never looks as good in the gulf simply because there is less water, but that doesn't mean it cannot support a violent hurricane. In fact, as many RI events that have occurred in the gulf recently such as Charley, Katrina, and Rita, I probably don't need to explain that any further.

In fact I think it would be reasonable to suggest that a body of water like the gulf may even be the best place for hurricane intensification because its relatively shallow depth means much of its volume of water is quite warm well into its depths.

Not to say that isn't the case for the Caribbean, it is there as well, but TCHP in the Caribbean looks more impressive on the map simply because it is deeper there and since warm waters reach a great depth, it deceivingly looks like the gulf isn't very impressive in comparison.
Now shear and dry air are certainly an issue...
Why atmosphere so dry?
Well than there really is no need for Cantore to be in Pcola Beach because at this rate it isnt goin to be around by tom morning!!
At WunderMap, the storm track, which I find very informative, does not correspond to the satellite view. One or both are not in register, so the conflict results in there being no valid information presented. Anyone know why this is? Is there a fix?