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Tropical Storm Karen Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system this morning, done in by dry air and high wind shear. Karen's demise brings the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic up to 27, which is about 31% of average for this time of the year. Climatologically, the season should be about 85% over, and I expect we will see just one or two more named storms before the quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 peters out. The next candidate to be a named storm is a low pressure area that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday, and was located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands at 11 am Sunday morning. The disturbance is headed west-northwest into the Central Atlantic, and is unlikely to threaten any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 30%. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not.

One item of interest regarding Karen, noted in the NHC discussion Saturday afternoon at 5 pm EDT:

THE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE
NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE MODEL IN REAL TIME.

The integration of real-time radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters into the HWRF model may make this model worthy of extra consideration in the future.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Storm Karen were still generating some heavy rains over the Northern Gulf of Mexico at 11 am EDT Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
TS Karen
TS Karen
Orange Beach Alabama TS Karen
Karen Bands
Karen Bands
presently stationary 120 miles south of Morgan city with 35 mph winds
Karen In Pink
Karen In Pink

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

approximately 110-115 knots (10 min) from JMA. But with JMA lower estimates of the 10 minute sustained wind scale.. it's 100 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DANAS (T1324)
9:00 AM JST October 7 2013
======================================

East Southeast Of Naha (Okinawa)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Danas (935 hPa) located at 24.5N 131.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.7N 128.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Kagoshima Prefecture
48 HRS: 35.2N 131.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Shimane Prefecture
72 HRS: 39.2N 139.6E - Extratropical Low Near Akita Prefecture
502. SLU
So I see we have invest 98L. I doubt this will ever make it past TD status.

Even the aggressive LGEM isn't too thrilled.

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 41 40 37 33 29 27
Quoting 499. bwi:
NWS DC discussion:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...PUTTING OUR REGION IN NE FLOW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
06/00Z MEX GDNC IS GIVING THE AREA NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70 AND NIGHTIME LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

ON THURSDAY...BOTH THE 06/00Z GFS AND 05/12Z ECMWF CUT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE NC COAST WITH THE SFC REFLECTION A LARGE WARM CORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE AREA OFF THE NC/SC IN OCTOBER IS A FAVORED
REGION FOR LIKELY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC CLIMO DATA.
THE
EXTENDED GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OFF THE COAST BEFORE FINALLY TAKING IT
OUT TO SEA. RIGHT NOW RUNNING WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 4-7...WHICH
CONTINUES THE REGION IN NE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.


Didn't someone post earlier today a discussion from their local NWS, that talked about something similar, but w/ CMC as the model. Poor guy was promptly ridiculed for it...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM FITOW (T1323)
9:00 AM JST October 7 2013
======================================

Overland Southeast China

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Fitow (994 hPa) located at 26.8N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.4N 117.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
Quoting 500. KoritheMan:
I'll probably do a blog on Danas tomorrow. Lord knows I'm not going to get a chance to forecast a major hurricane in the Atlantic, threatening land or otherwise, lol.


You should. Might cure some of that melancholy you've got going on :/
506. SLU
Quoting 502. SLU:
So I see we have invest 98L. I doubt this will ever make it past TD status.

Even the aggressive LGEM isn't too thrilled.

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 41 40 37 33 29 27


Does it anything ever get past 30/35 kt in 2013?
Quoting 505. LAbonbon:


You should. Might cure some of that melancholy you've got going on :/


Never know, Bon.
Quoting 508. KoritheMan:


Never know, Bon.


You know, I wrote post 481 w/ you in mind. My first 'poem' in decades.

Quoting 510. LAbonbon:


You know, I wrote post 481 w/ you in mind. My first 'poem' in decades.



Haha, I kinda caught the hint.
Headed off to do some non-weather/science stuff.

Everyone, hope you all enjoy your evenings.
513. JRRP
oh... we have 98L


I don't want to be that guy but Danas looks kind of annular.
515. Relix
So we may have some fun weather here in PR a week from now?
Quoting 515. Relix:
So we may have some fun weather here in PR a week from now?


I don't think PR nor any island will be threaten by this. By the way I have a Puerto Rico U.S VI blog where you can visit and post how are things weatherwise in your area.
Ah, looks like some beautiful fall weather for me after the rains last night and today:

Quoting 517. Astrometeor:
Ah, looks like some beautiful fall weather for me after the rains last night and today:



Chill out Nathan fall
is coming for you! How long
until you rake leaves?
A little bit of dry air and northwesterly shear are keeping Danas from intensifying more than it already has (looks about 120kt 1-minute sustained). Still a very well-defined and dangerous typhoon.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From facebook...

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Some of you may have seen media reports indicating that NHC was able to recall personnel from furlough when Tropical Storm Karen threatened the Gulf coast - personnel that included NHC's public affairs officer, a primary contributor to this page. Now that Karen has dissipated, these personnel have been re-furloughed. As a consequence, NHC's postings to Facebook may again be limited or delayed during the Federal Government shutdown.

Readers of this page who want the latest on the tropics should visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov. The NHC website and forecasting staff remain fully operational.


Why do we need a public affairs officer to post stuff on private, profit making sites when the same information as available from the NHC/NOAA/NWS sites we already pay for? I realize some people are FB/Twitter addicts but they can load a URL instead. Can these public affairs flacks and use the money for real weather reporting and research.

EDIT: Who was the moron that decided that Karen no longer existed and now it's back as a 0% yellow circle again? It's either gone or it's not. They either jumped the gun on making Karen a remnant low or someone down there has been drinking.
521. SLU
A near perfect "supercane"

Quoting 518. BaltimoreBrian:


Chill out Nathan fall
is coming for you! How long
until you rake leaves?


Can't rake this year haiku master. Too much rain, the leaves are molding while they are still on the tree.
Naha should be on
the left side of the center
which is fortunate
Quoting 523. Astrometeor:


Can't rake this year haiku master. Too much rain, the leaves are molding while they are still on the tree.


wet leaves are heavy
rake for biceps and triceps
impress all the girls
Quoting 437. Climate175:
Oh boy CaribBoy is gonna be happy !


Not until I see a well organized TS at 14N 55W moving WNW at 10MPH or less.

;-)
Quoting 520. sar2401:

Why do we need a public affairs officer to post stuff on private, profit making sites when the same information as available from the NHC/NOAA/NWS sites we already pay for? I realize some people are FB/Twitter addicts but they can load a URL instead. Can these public affairs flacks and use the money for real weather reporting and research.

EDIT: Who was the moron that decided that Karen no longer existed and now it's back as a 0% yellow circle again? It's either gone or it's not. They either jumped the gun on making Karen a remnant low or someone down there has been drinking.


From the cached webpage.
" As one of the federal government’s premier science agencies, NOAA is using social media tools to share critical information and provide the public a better understanding of the work we do on behalf of oceans, coasts, fisheries, climate, atmosphere and weather sciences.

NOAA social media promotes “conversation” around important issues and ultimately helps shape NOAA’s mission of science, service and stewardship."

To add on to that, the number of people who use facebook as a one stop shop for news and information is astounding. It allows for more total dissemination of information from NOAA and other agencies.

So lay off them a bit, you're starting to sound like:




Just to be clear, this is all in good humor. :)
Quoting 460. Climate175:
Majority point to a storm going north of the anitilles


B-O-R-E-D with that :/
Quoting 526. BaltimoreBrian:


wet leaves are heavy
rake for biceps and triceps
impress all the girls


....Right. The women I know could care less how strong a guy is.
Quoting 487. Tropicsweatherpr:


Cam in Okinawa.



I see that storm is moving very quickly on satellite (maybe as fast as 20kt)
Quoting 530. Astrometeor:


....Right. The women I know could care less how strong a guy is.


Of course they tell you
that but we all know the truth
muscle more than mind!

:P
Dry as a desert
No satisfaction for those
Poor blokes on St. Barths



(I was on the phone w/ a friend saying how dry it's been where she lives, thought of CaribBoy, this is the result)
Quoting Naga5000:


From the cached webpage.
" As one of the federal government’s premier science agencies, NOAA is using social media tools to share critical information and provide the public a better understanding of the work we do on behalf of oceans, coasts, fisheries, climate, atmosphere and weather sciences.

NOAA social media promotes “conversation” around important issues and ultimately helps shape NOAA’s mission of science, service and stewardship."

To add on to that, the number of people who use facebook as a one stop shop for news and information is astounding. It allows for more total dissemination of information from NOAA and other agencies.

So lay off them a bit, you're starting to sound like:




Just to be clear, this is all in good humor. :)

Excellent. If they're that important, bring them back as "essential" personnel. If they're not, fire them. I really could care less about how many people are using social media and how well it will serve NOAA to get out its message. This is pure propaganda and you know it. As I said, spend the money on forecasting weather. That's job #1, and, given the recent fiasco with Karen, they're not doing a very good job of it. If you have other clouds you'd like me to yell at, bring them on by. Someone has to say the emperor has no clothes.
Quoting 533. LAbonbon:
Dry as a desert
No satisfaction for those
Poor blokes on St. Barths



(I was on the phone w/ a friend saying how dry it's been where she lives, thought of CaribBoy, this is the result)


And today has been pretty dry again despite the decent thunderstorm activity all around.

Though I still had fun because some CBs were really HUGE and nice to watch XD

Heard some good boomers as well. .. and hopefully the rain will fall by the time DMAX arrives.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA


* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

* AT 912 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FROM A
SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 PM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANDY
SPRINGS...MOUNTAIN PARK...SUWANEE...SUGAR HILL...REST HAVEN...
NORCROSS...LAWRENCEVILLE...DULUTH...BUFORD...BERKE LEY LAKE...
DUNWOODY...JOHNS CREEK...MILTON...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA AND CUMMING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS
SUCH AS CROOKED CREEK...BIG CREEK...NANCY CREEK...PEACHTREE
CREEK...SWEETWATER CREEK...AND SUWANEE CREEK
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

IF YOU SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG GAWX.
Quoting 534. sar2401:

Excellent. If they're that important, bring them back as "essential" personnel. If they're not, fire them. I really could care less about how many people are using social media and how well it will serve NOAA to get out its message. This is pure propaganda and you know it. As I said, spend the money on forecasting weather. That's job #1, and, given the recent fiasco with Karen, they're not doing a very good job of it. If you have other clouds you'd like me to yell at, bring them on by. Someone has to say the emperor has no clothes.


Personally, I think the issue of them having a public affairs facebooker is more of a societal problem and the NOAA is merely reacting to the demands from a social media filled/fueled world. Ya dig? :)
Could all of the unused energy from this year theoretically lead to another late season disaster such as Sandy (not necessarily the same track)?

Or would next year end up tapping into this energy and having stronger storms?
Quoting 528. Naga5000:


From the cached webpage.
" As one of the federal government’s premier science agencies, NOAA is using social media tools to share critical information and provide the public a better understanding of the work we do on behalf of oceans, coasts, fisheries, climate, atmosphere and weather sciences.

NOAA social media promotes “conversation” around important issues and ultimately helps shape NOAA’s mission of science, service and stewardship."

To add on to that, the number of people who use facebook as a one stop shop for news and information is astounding. It allows for more total dissemination of information from NOAA and other agencies.

So lay off them a bit, you're starting to sound like:




Just to be clear, this is all in good humor. :)


Literally yelling at a cloud.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NARDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 119.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Narda it is.
Quoting 521. SLU:
A near perfect "supercane"



How strong is it?
Quoting 542. Civicane49:
BULLETIN


Quoting 541. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You two posted at the exact same time, congratulations.
Quoting 542. Civicane49:
Narda it is.


that was fast
Quoting 542. Civicane49:
Narda it is.


Civi was beat to posting the advisory?!? :O Could only be cods
Quoting 534. sar2401:

Excellent. If they're that important, bring them back as "essential" personnel. If they're not, fire them. I really could care less about how many people are using social media and how well it will serve NOAA to get out its message. This is pure propaganda and you know it. As I said, spend the money on forecasting weather. That's job #1, and, given the recent fiasco with Karen, they're not doing a very good job of it. If you have other clouds you'd like me to yell at, bring them on by. Someone has to say the emperor has no clothes.


It does get old. You ever hear the expression you can't tell someone who knows everything anything? Ever have anything positive to say Sar?
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A
CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA.
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR
FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD
PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

NARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME
QUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION
OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO
ITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED
UP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM
STALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A
BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THOSE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting 538. Halcyon19:
Could all of the unused energy from this year theoretically lead to another late season disaster such as Sandy (not necessarily the same track)?

Or would next year end up tapping into this energy and having stronger storms?

The energy is redistributed - the question is... how?
While the NATL may be quiet, there are several other basins that aren't as quiet, like WPAC, and the SPAC season coming up. Not to mention autumn severe storm season, and winter storms.
Quoting 543. FunnelVortex:


How strong is it?


Cat 4, I believe
This will be the second year in a row that Okinawa will be hit directly by a strong eyewall.

Quoting 538. Halcyon19:
Could all of the unused energy from this year theoretically lead to another late season disaster such as Sandy (not necessarily the same track)?

Or would next year end up tapping into this energy and having stronger storms?


I really don't think there is much of a relationship between largely untapped oceanic heat potential carrying over from season to the next, although this is merely a preliminary guesstimate I've made based on personal experience. I haven't done any actual, objective research.
Quoting 532. BaltimoreBrian:


Of course they tell you
that but we all know the truth
muscle more than mind!

:P


This is delusional and stereotyping.
Like saying all men are attracted to women with oversized chests. Ridiculous.
Anyway, not surprised that Karen bit the dust.
Interesting that we are at 30% or so of expected ACE for this time of the hurricane season and much lower if you factor in expectations for the season.
Quoting 538. Halcyon19:
Could all of the unused energy from this year theoretically lead to another late season disaster such as Sandy (not necessarily the same track)?

Or would next year end up tapping into this energy and having stronger storms?

It makes sense to say that if a tropical cyclone does not form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea between X and Y months...we'll go with June to September...that a cyclone that does form in Z month...October...would be able to use that untapped ocean heat content. It does not, however, make sense to suggest that unused ocean heat content would be carried into the following season to be used by a system then. That ocean heat content will be depleted through trade winds and cold fronts.
Quoting 554. BaltimoreBrian:
Fast running robot
Very cool gaits and high speed.
What will we make next?


Mother showed me this yesterday, too slow this time Brian.
WatchOut Fukushima

Anyone know how vulnerable Okinawa and the surrounding islands are to storm surge?
Quoting 549. jeffs713:

The energy is redistributed - the question is... how?
While the NATL may be quiet, there are several other basins that aren't as quiet, like WPAC, and the SPAC season coming up. Not to mention autumn severe storm season, and winter storms.

Quoting 552. KoritheMan:


I really don't think there is much of a relationship between largely untapped oceanic heat potential carrying over from season to the next, although this is merely a preliminary guesstimate I've made based on personal experience. I haven't done any actual, objective research.

Quoting 555. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It makes sense to say that if a tropical cyclone does not form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea between X and Y months...we'll go with June to September...that a cyclone that does form in Z month...October...would be able to use that untapped ocean heat content. It does not, however, make sense to suggest that unused ocean heat content would be carried into the following season to be used by a system then. That ocean heat content will be depleted through trade winds and cold fronts.


Thanks so much for answering! It would be crazy if subsequent hurricane seasons could tap into the unused energy of previous years, but it is probably quite a good thing that it does not happen!
Atlas' remnants over my state (with the new low over Lake Superior).


Okinawa along with the rest of the Ryukyu islands is hilly and mountainous so there are places to go. I don't know the storm surge potential.



EDIT I suspect the storm surge potential is low because the sea is so deep right around the Ryukyus.
Quoting 562. BaltimoreBrian:
Okinawa along with the rest of the Ryukyu is hilly and mountainous so there are places to go. I don't know the storm surge potential.



Here is a updating cam but I don't know which side of the island is located.



566. beell
Quoting 553. Chicklit:


This is delusional and stereotyping.
Like saying all men are attracted to women with oversized chests.


Very attractive.

Quoting 565. Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is a updating cam but I don't know which side of the island is located.





I would say the WEST side... because the sea is still really "calm"


I took this picture at around 2PM today xD


Checkout this link then click on Danas....

Link
571. SLU
Quoting 543. FunnelVortex:


How strong is it?


about 115kts (1-minute)
Cloud tops have warmed slightly over the last few hours, but Danas remains a powerful typhoon. Hopefully it won't do too much damage to Okinawa.

Too bad NRL is facing problems with MTSAT images.

Anyway, doesn't look too good for Japan.


TXPQ25 KNES 062131
TCSWNP

A. 23W (DANAS)

B. 06/2101Z

C. 24.6N

D. 130.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED AND DT=7.0 BASED ON CLOUD FREE
WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE RING. MET HOWEVER IS 5.5 AND PAT=6.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT TO STAY WITHIN CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
Quoting 520. sar2401:

Why do we need a public affairs officer to post stuff on private, profit making sites when the same information as available from the NHC/NOAA/NWS sites we already pay for? I realize some people are FB/Twitter addicts but they can load a URL instead. Can these public affairs flacks and use the money for real weather reporting and research.

EDIT: Who was the moron that decided that Karen no longer existed and now it's back as a 0% yellow circle again? It's either gone or it's not. They either jumped the gun on making Karen a remnant low or someone down there has been drinking.


Why do you bash the NHC for giving the remnants of Karen a yellow circle when they obviously have more expertise on the subject than you? They know what they are doing, and your comment about someone at the NHC drinking is just ridiculous, especially since your posts make it very obvious that you lack the expertise that the NHC has.
Quoting 572. Civicane49:
Cloud tops have warmed slightly over the last few hours, but Danas remains a powerful typhoon. Hopefully it won't do too much damage to Okinawa.


Man, it sure has been a long time since I've seen one of those beautiful monsters in the Atlantic. The people of North America sure have been spoiled as of late, but I do agree that the break was needed after the seasons of 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. I'm afraid there will come a year, though, that the Hurricanes will not be so timid and shy in the Atlantic Waters as they have been in the past two years.
Quoting 575. GrandCaymanMed:


Why do you bash the NHC for giving the remnants of Karen a yellow circle when they obviously have more expertise on the subject than you? They know what they are doing, and your comment about someone at the NHC drinking is just ridiculous, especially since your posts make it very obvious that you lack the expertise that the NHC has.


To be fair (and I respect the NHC truly and fully), I see little pragmatism in designating any 0% areas with yellow circles. 10% and above, I can understand. Otherwise, we have the Tropical Weather Discussion for that.
Quoting 577. KoritheMan:


To be fair (and I respect the NHC truly and fully), I see little pragmatism in designating any 0% areas with yellow circles. 10% and above, I can understand. Otherwise, we have the Tropical Weather Discussion for that.


I agree about the pragmatism, but to bash the NHC that way is not right. Yes I myself find the 0% a bit amusing but I'm not going to post a whole tirade attacking NHC for it.
Quoting 454. bigwes6844:
Just about to say only 8 3/4 months till the start of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season.
The 2013 season is not done yet.
Hey guys, a WU blogger named Gorty just posted a new blog with a bunch of questions in it for others to answer. Since I'm pretty useless I'm asking y'all to help him out.

List of Q's for WU bloggers
Quoting 578. GrandCaymanMed:


I agree about the pragmatism, but to bash the NHC that way is not right. Yes I myself find the 0% a bit amusing but I'm not going to post a whole tirade attacking NHC for it.


Well, there's attacking, then there's disagreeing. I've had some issues with some of their forecasts before (I was convinced Karen was going to come left of most of the forecast tracks during the initial stages, and it did appear to do that), but I had my reasons for expressing that disagreement. Blindly attacking (and better yet, claiming to be better than them) is one thing, but having genuine reasons for disagreeing is quite another.

Professionals make mistakes, too, and I think the 0% thing is one of them.
Quoting 514. MoltenIce:
I don't want to be that guy but Danas looks kind of annular.


And here is yet another weird thing about the tropical cyclone season even on a global scale. Annular structures are rare for tropical cyclones in the west pacific, even more so than the Atlantic, yet it seems there have been a few systems in a row lately in the west pacific that have been at least near annular in appearance...


I'm having a nice shower now ...

But it's very isolated ..

Quoting 583. CaribBoy:


I'm having a nice shower now ...


Good for you. Let's see if the wave dumps plenty of rain for St Barts as it moves thru.
586. DFWjc
I have a cousin who is living near the northern part of Okinawa, she told me the only thing they worry about is the loss of electricity.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I don't think PR nor any island will be threaten by this. By the way I have a Puerto Rico U.S VI blog where you can visit and post how are things weatherwise in your area.
Quoting 585. Tropicsweatherpr:


Good for you. Let's see if the wave dumps plenty of rain for St Barts as it moves thru.


The rainfall data is unavailable right now, but I'll let you know if we get something significant :-)

Pretty looking storm. I dig it.

Quoting GrandCaymanMed:


Why do you bash the NHC for giving the remnants of Karen a yellow circle when they obviously have more expertise on the subject than you? They know what they are doing, and your comment about someone at the NHC drinking is just ridiculous, especially since your posts make it very obvious that you lack the expertise that the NHC has.

First, it's not bashing. There's no reason to make a storm that hasn't made landfall a remnant low and then replace it with a 0% yellow circle. If the NHC thought there was any possibility that Karen was going to stay alive at all, it should have been left as a depression, not written off and then bought back 8 hours later, when it was obvious Karen wasn't cooperating and wasn't a remnant low. To go from a tropical storm to a depression to a remnant and then back to a 0% yellow circle in less than 24 hours makes absolutely no sense. I am under no obligation to agree with what the NHC does. I've been watching tropical storms for 50 years and never seen anything like this. It also takes zero expertise to draw a yellow circle and give it a 0% probability in 48 hours and a 0% probability in 5 days. It makes no sense, but it also takes no expertise.

As far as the drinking, of course it was ridiculous. It's called humor. You should give it a try sometime.
Narda is organizing quite nicely this evening. 45 knots would probably not be a conservative intensity.



XD XD XD
I think I found the reason for the cloud top warming.



Quoting Tribucanes:


It does get old. You ever hear the expression you can't tell someone who knows everything anything? Ever have anything positive to say Sar?

I already had you on ignore. Back you go again.
Quoting 593. CaribBoy:


XD XD XD
finally
Quoting 583. CaribBoy:


I'm having a nice shower now ...



Please use soap.
Quoting Naga5000:


Personally, I think the issue of them having a public affairs facebooker is more of a societal problem and the NOAA is merely reacting to the demands from a social media filled/fueled world. Ya dig? :)

Does it cost money? Are there chronic budget problems at NOAA? How is the money that's being spent helping with NOAA's core missions? Has NOAA even considered recruiting volunteers for peripherally important but non-core activities? Other non-profits and government agencies do it all the time. The search and rescue team I was in charge of for 25 years was 95% volunteers, and that was an important, core mission of our Sheriff's Department. I just think NOAA needs to consider the idea that not every position needs to be a paid job. The NPS has had a large and very successful volunteer program for decades. If that's yelling at clouds, bring around some more. In a time of budget shortages, we'd better use every resource we can, and we'd better learn to think outside the box. If you owned NOAA, what would you do?
Quoting 534. sar2401:

Excellent. If they're that important, bring them back as "essential" personnel. If they're not, fire them.


Are you somehow unclear on what essential means?

Karen looked like a threat. They brought the people back on who's job it is to disseminate the information to the public through various different channels. Karen dissipates. It is no longer essential to disseminate information to the public. The go back on furlough.

I really could care less about how many people are using social media and how well it will serve NOAA to get out its message.


Well I'd say it's a damn good thing that you don't make the decisions then. When it comes to disseminating useful and/or critical information you utilize the most popular and widely used services. Only a fool would let their ideals get in the way of better judgement.

This is pure propaganda and you know it.


No it isn't.

As I said, spend the money on forecasting weather. That's job #1, and, given the recent fiasco with Karen, they're not doing a very good job of it.


The NOAA is responsible for a lot more than just weather forecasting.

And what fiasco? The forecasters, models, etc. are only as good as the data they can get. If you want better forecasts, you're going to have to make a serious investment.

Firing a PR guy, or even 1000 PR guys doesn't amount to squat when compared to the costs of developing new satellites or improving the models/tools/computer systems used for forecasting.

You're charging at windmills.

If you have other clouds you'd like me to yell at, bring them on by. Someone has to say the emperor has no clothes.


Unfortunately, you're argument doesn't hold much water. NOAA funding has been practically flat now for a number of years (throw in inflation and it's actually been dropping). So the problem isn't that there is a PR guy that you happen to think shouldn't be there. The problem is that improve forecasting you actually need to make a serious investment, and that certainly isn't going to happen anytime soon with this congress.


Quoting 576. TylerStanfield:

Man, it sure has been a long time since I've seen one of those beautiful monsters in the Atlantic. The people of North America sure have been spoiled as of late, but I do agree that the break was needed after the seasons of 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. I'm afraid there will come a year, though, that the Hurricanes will not be so timid and shy in the Atlantic Waters as they have been in the past two years.


We sure have been fortunate for a number of years now. Excluding Sandy, which was a hybrid creature all its own, i would actually say that the US has been relatively spared since 2008.
Quoting Xyrus2000:



See post #599. I think I answered all your insults there.
Some 35kt winds in the NE GOM of X-Karen...best she's been since she was in the southern GOM 2 days ago. Though she is partially merged with the cold front..she will pack a nice punch along the Nature coast of florida from Pasco County north to Cedar Key in the morning. Pressure in the NE GOM near Karen is around 1005mbs
Quoting 586. DFWjc:
I have a cousin who is living near the northern part of Okinawa, she told me the only thing they worry about is the loss of electricity.


I'll have to talk to my zone manager (who was stationed on Okinawa for two typhoons during the 1970s when he was in the Air Force) to know for sure, but from what I gather, building codes on Okinawa are extremely complex and rigorous. Typhoons aren't much of a concern there, I think.
Quoting beell:


Very attractive.


LOL. Moderately delusional but still funny.
Heavy rain shower ...
Quoting 598. Dakster:


Please use soap.


LOL always
Quoting 595. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh great, they "improved" the site. And this folks, is why TWC is on the bottom of my bookmarked weather sites. Even lower than accuweather.
Quoting scottsvb:
Some 35kt winds in the NE GOM of X-Karen...best she's been since she was in the southern GOM 2 days ago. Though she is partially merged with the cold front..she will pack a nice punch along the Nature coast of florida from Pasco County north to Cedar Key in the morning. Pressure in the NE GOM near Karen is around 1005mbs

As I said two nights ago, and was politely chuckled at, ex-Karen, or 0% yellow circle, as you prefer, would make its first and only landfall at or near Cedar Key. I was, and remain, quite surprised that the NHC would make Karen a post-tropical remnant low 14 hours after it had been a TS, and it still hadn't made landfall. I have never seen that occur with a storm that close to coast. It actually looks more organized tonight than it has for the last two nights. It's behaving like a typical tropical system in that SE Alabama, which is on the "wrong" side of the low, is getting squat in terms of rain or winds. The folks from Cedar Keys south should get a pretty good little storm out of it though.
Rain, thunder and lightnings xD
Quoting 608. Astrometeor:


Oh great, they "improved" the site. And this folks, is why TWC is on the bottom of my bookmarked weather sites. Even lower than accuweather.

What don't you like about it?
612. JRRP
Quoting Astrometeor:


Oh great, they "improved" the site. And this folks, is why TWC is on the bottom of my bookmarked weather sites. Even lower than accuweather.

I wonder how long it will be before WU is merged with TWC and we simply ride off into the sunset? It doesn't seem to make sense to run two weather sites owned by the same company, and there's no doubt in my mind which site will be the last one standing.
Closing in on northern Okinawa.

Looks like a smaller [and slightly weaker] version of Katrina.

Quoting 611. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What don't you like about it?


1. For now on, every winter it will be brandishing the newest storm name. "Winter Storm Brandy has been named!"

2. Omg, there is this thing blocking me from getting in right now. If I have to take a "tour" on a site, the thing is too complicated.

3. Hold on, let me click that X button for #2.

4. The new web design looks as if a celebrity touched it. Eww.

5. More display of non-weather news. Ex: "Haunted House, blah, blah, blah". Need I go on?

6. I just in general despise the local forecasts, nothing to do with the site, but hey. Might as well hit them where it should hurt, right?

7. This list is now too long.

8. The 50 Best Places to Grow Old....um...ok? Why is this even abstractly important to be big and emboldened on the front page?

9. I just noticed there's a "Sign-in" for TWC. I can not fathom what kind of treat you could possible get for signing onto that service. Please. I would just get notices from them daily about random things, with the occasional "Astro! It's raining!" alert from them.

What do I not like about them? Lol, funny question. The disgusting thing is, I merely talked about the online half, you already know my feelings about the TV shows that have absolutely nothing to do with the weather (with a few exceptions of course).
Now I'm living in Korea. Some of my friends are from Japan. Would be nice to see some discussion of the Western Pacific. I might actually get to experience a hurricane first hand here.

Saturday was the most beautiful fall day I have seen in a long while, but Sunday it clouded up here in Seoul and has stayed hot and humid since Saturday. The mosquitoes have taken cover it seems. I doubt it will get anywhere close to here.
Quoting 609. sar2401:

As I said two nights ago, and was politely chuckled at, ex-Karen, or 0% yellow circle, as you prefer, would make its first and only landfall at or near Cedar Key. I was, and remain, quite surprised that the NHC would make Karen a post-tropical remnant low 14 hours after it had been a TS, and it still hadn't made landfall. I have never seen that occur with a storm that close to coast. It actually looks more organized tonight than it has for the last two nights. It's behaving like a typical tropical system in that SE Alabama, which is on the "wrong" side of the low, is getting squat in terms of rain or winds. The folks from Cedar Keys south should get a pretty good little storm out of it though.


I never said Cedar Key.. your thinking of StormTrackerScott ... I always said Panama City but it could go east of there towards the Big Bend if it stayed south of 29N. I was wrong on intensity.. thought Karen would get up to 60mph tonight (as of Sat morning) but she went to far west and away from the convection and didn't make her move east till today instead of last night :( She may not be classified, but she's just as good as a 40mph TS right now.

Quoting 616. Astrometeor:


1. For now on, every winter it will be brandishing the newest storm name. "Winter Storm Brandy has been named!"

*vomit*




6. I just in general despise the local forecasts, nothing to do with the site, but hey. Might as well hit them where it should hurt, right?

The quality of the local forecasts should theoretically perform quite poorly to the official NWS predictions, yes. Assuming what I heard a couple years ago is true, the TWC forecasting staff doesn't actually do any real-time analysis or forecasting, they just incorporate raw model data into each forecast. They literally have no predictive power at all. Plus, even if they did actually forecast, they would literally have to forecast the entire United States; that would be like the National Hurricane Center assigning one staff member to three simultaneous storms. It's just nonsensical, and is pretty much inevitably going to crush the forecasts given time constraints to update said forecasts.
Remnants of Fitow:



Good night everyone.
It's interesting how "weak" the convection associated with Danas is compared to what a West Pacific super typhoon is generally showing off. -60C (with a sliver of -70C) compared to widespread -80C with Usagi.

Inching closer towards Okinawa, Danas has that classic annular look.


Here's Daniel from the EPac in 2006.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 10 MPH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT TO ITS WEST...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Okinawa live cam
Quoting scottsvb:


I never said Cedar Key.. your thinking of StormTrackerScott ... I always said Panama City but it could go east of there towards the Big Bend if it stayed south of 29N. I was wrong on intensity.. thought Karen would get up to 60mph tonight (as of Sat morning) but she went to far west and away from the convection and didn't make her move east till today instead of last night :( She may not be classified, but she's just as good as a 40mph TS right now.

Sorry, wasn't referring to you doing the chuckling. I actually can't remember who it was except it was a blogger that actually believed Karen was going to LA. It has been clear to me for the past two days that the cold front was moving too slow and Karen moving too fast for it to make landfall in LA and then get turned east. As expected, it stayed just offshore as it turned east because there were no steering currents to bring it ashore north. Under those conditions, Karen, or what was left of her, had to go straight east, as she has, and had to go near Cedar Key, as she has. That's one fo the reasons I was surprised to see Karen declared a remnant at 1000 CDT, when she was still offshore and hadn't lost the normal characteristics of a tropical depression. It was almost like the NHC just wanted to get rid of her, like a crazy aunt who had been hanging around too long. Then, again to my surprise, after a mere 10 hours, Karen shows up again a 0% yellow circle, apparently to give the NHC something it could make grow if Karen really wasn't a remnant. Karen was a weird and incredibly badly forecast storm, and it appears she will remain so until she finally merges with the cold front over Florida. In 50 years of watching tropical systems, I've never seen a series of events like we have in the past 24 hours.
EP, 14, 2013100706, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1204W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M,
07/0600 UTC 13.1N 120.4W T2.5/2.5 NARDA -- East Pacific
629. JRRP
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DANAS (T1324)
15:00 PM JST October 7 2013
======================================

Southeast Of Yoron Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Danas (935 hPa) located at 26.7N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 31.9N 127.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Kagoshima Prefecture
48 HRS: 36.0N 133.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea of ​​Japan
72 HRS: 40.1N 142.6E - Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan
631. JRRP
632. JRRP
EP, 14, 201310070600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 12040W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MN, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, AODT RAW 2.7 AT 0530Z
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 7 2013
======================================

A Low Pressure Area has formed over Tenasserim coast (Myanmar) and neighborhood. It would merge into Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours and intensify further.
Quoting 621. Astrometeor:
Remnants of Fitow:



Good night everyone.
Fitow's dissipation is probably what let Danas organize really well now. Prior to dissipation, Fitow's much larger circulation and attendant upper air anticyclone was shearing Danas slightly, restricting outflow to the west and allowing for a slightly lopsided convective pattern.





Ever since Fitow's landfall, this has no longer been the case, and Danas now has a beautiful symmetrical appearance.

AL, 98, 2013100706, , BEST, 0, 97N, 263W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good Morning!..Heavy Rain woke me up...........
and more on the way later on...............
a wet monday for the whole east coast................
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 120.9W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS BEEN GETTING MORE
ORGANIZED. A LONG CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND CONNECTS TO AN INNER RING OF CONVECTION THAT IS
OPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND
T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...AS WELL AS ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT.
EASTERLY SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NARDA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. OCEAN WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM AT AROUND 28C...AND THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH LIE AT THE UPPER
RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD
CAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRAJECTORY
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STEERING PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST...CAUSING
NARDA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
STRONGER CYCLONE THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING ADVECTED MORE
QUICKLY TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOTION BETWEEN
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NOAA FIM MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 13.2N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Morning all..

This is interesting. Northeastern GOM

28.500N 84.517W
Looks like a wet morning Largo!

(I originally cross-posted with GatorWX #948, here is another interesting one).
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL Image
30.065 N 87.555 W (30 3'55" N 87 33'19" W)
63F here this morning! Sweeeet!!!!
80.2 F here, 80% RH, tropical!
655. MahFL
Is there an old coc south of TLH ?
Peaked.



Not bad though, 1005 mb and almost 40 kt gusts.
Quoting 655. MahFL:
Is there an old coc south of TLH ?


Yes, sure is...


Quoting 615. Civicane49:

As much as I love microwave images, actual radar completely blows it out of the water. The detail and real-time availability of it simply can't be beat. Fantastic loop showing Danas's clip of Okinawa. Maybe some dry air starting to get into the western part of the circulation and erode the souther part of the eyewall though? Hard to tell with 100% certainty due to Danas moving away from the radar site, but the notion appears to be supported by the latest microwave pass as well.

Here's the loop again so you don't have to go back to find it.



And here is the microwave pass I also referenced.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A very beautiful 55 degrees with a wind chill of 53, humidity only 77%. It's our first morning that really feels like Fall is coming. I love Fall and Spring.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Egg, Sausage & Cheese Breakfast Bowl, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, fruity granola and yogurt parfait, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
660. MahFL
Did the shutdown turn stop this site from updating ?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Quoting 657. GatorWX:


Yes, sure is...



That would be The Remnants of Karen (yes, that is a proper noun). Like the 2007 version of herself, there isn't really much of a threat for her to do anything. With an open circulation, a lack of pressure falls, and unfavorable barotropic conditions, there really isn't much for her to do tropically.

Quoting 649. GatorWX:
Looks like a wet morning Largo!

YES..raining and pretty breezy at times too.
real wet morning for sure but the grass is smiling...
back in the 70s and 80s ex karen might still have a td stamp.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FLZ061-062-071045-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND
WESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR HARBOUR HEIGHTS...OR 6 MILES EAST OF PORT CHARLOTTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT LAKE SUZY...CHARLOTTE
HARBOR...CLEVELAND AND FORT OGDEN...UNTIL 645 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 2726 8205 2726 8175 2698 8175 2693 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 237DEG 16KT 2703 8197

$$
Florida..stay alert for any Tornado warnings today, they are warning of that possibility...stay safe out there.
impact from ex karen might be greater than cyclone bonnie a few yrs back
Quoting 608. Astrometeor:


Oh great, they "improved" the site. And this folks, is why TWC is on the bottom of my bookmarked weather sites. Even lower than accuweather.


I thought it would be because of the terrific way they've decided to market every winter "storm" with a name and call themselves a serious meteorological outfit. Personally, I wish every person would boycott The Weather Channel as punishment for this genuinely disgraceful low to which this company has taken the (formerly) respectable field of meteorology. With so many "named" storms now, even I get bored of hearing about them and I tune out. That is NOT what TWC should be doing to the public if they were truly concerned about limiting melodramatic coverage to instances when the public was threatened by exceptionally hazardous weather. But, hey, their professional standards obviously went out the window and now accountants and marketers decide what is acceptable. If their staff meteorologists are truly onboard with this, it means they've checked out of science and let money and self-interest pollute their thinking.
Good morning to all.

00z ECMWF has storms on EPAC (Octave) and Atlantic (Lorenzo) in 192 hours.

Quoting 661. 1900hurricane:

That would be The Remnants of Karen (yes, that is a proper noun)... = TROK


agree i dont remember one winter storm name from last yr. epsillion? yet we will never forget the hall of fame hurricane names its a waste

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
Going to be alot of these up and down the east coast today..stay safe out there................Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

NCZ004-005-VAZ032>034-043-071130-
STOKES NC-ROCKINGHAM NC-BEDFORD VA-HENRY VA-FRANKLIN VA-PATRICK VA-
635 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
WESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
EASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 730 AM EDT

* AT 634 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ENDICOTT TO NEAR EAST BEND...MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY 8AM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARTINSVILLE CITY...
STEWARTSVILLE...
MONETA...
BEDFORD CITY...
AND KING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3633 8045 3734 7978 3735 7944
3704 7956 3704 7960 3681 7965 3625 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 1031Z 217DEG 34KT 3687 8010 3618 8049

$$



invest 98L IS HERE and nice tropical wave back of invest 98L MAYBE invest 99L SOON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
651 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FLZ061-062-071145-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
651 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 6 MILES EAST OF PUNTA GORDA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT OGDEN...CLEVELAND...CHARLOTTE COUNTY
AIRPORT AND BABCOCK WEBB WMA...UNTIL 745 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 2732 8161 2687 8162 2688 8201 2732 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 273DEG 14KT 2696 8194

$$
INVEST 98L AND next tropical wave !
Quoting hurricanes2018:
INVEST 98L AND next tropical wave !

The CV Season is starting !

heheheheh
684. beell
Quoting 626. sar2401:

Sorry, wasn't referring to you doing the chuckling. I actually can't remember who it was except it was a blogger that actually believed Karen was going to LA. It has been clear to me for the past two days that the cold front was moving too slow and Karen moving too fast for it to make landfall in LA and then get turned east. As expected, it stayed just offshore as it turned east because there were no steering currents to bring it ashore north. Under those conditions, Karen, or what was left of her, had to go straight east, as she has, and had to go near Cedar Key, as she has. That's one fo the reasons I was surprised to see Karen declared a remnant at 1000 CDT, when she was still offshore and hadn't lost the normal characteristics of a tropical depression. It was almost like the NHC just wanted to get rid of her, like a crazy aunt who had been hanging around too long. Then, again to my surprise, after a mere 10 hours, Karen shows up again a 0% yellow circle, apparently to give the NHC something it could make grow if Karen really wasn't a remnant. Karen was a weird and incredibly badly forecast storm, and it appears she will remain so until she finally merges with the cold front over Florida. In 50 years of watching tropical systems, I've never seen a series of events like we have in the past 24 hours.


Karen's status simply moved from named to un-named status. From a formal discussion of the storm back to a mention in the TWO as an area of disturbed weather the NHC was monitoring.

A 0% chance of development and a yellow circle allows the reader a continuing stream of information for a system that no longer meets the requirements of a named system but may still offer up sensible weather.

You should know this by now.
Not a promising future for 98L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Good Morning all

Today is a high near 75, with thunderstorms in the afternoon. I just looked at the convective outlook I saw that I am in the 5% chance for a tornado, which is the most intense chance this year.(for me.)
Good Morning, seems Eastern SC, NC and VA are expecting some heavy rainfall the upcoming days..ex Karen is supposed to stall off the NC coast for a couple of days..



NWS in Wilmington, NC-cold weather may be trying to arrive..

STRONG LOW LVL CAA DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY...AND HAVE
SHOWN AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE WITH MAX TEMPS BEING REACHED FIRST
THING TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL REACH ONLY THE MID/UPR 60S...AGAIN...EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND THEN FALL INTO THE LOW 60S/UPR 50S BY EVE. THIS COMBINES
WITH STRONG NE WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO 30 MPH...AND TUESDAY WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER IN SEATTLE THAN OCTOBER IN WILMINGTON!
LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHOW VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE...DROPPING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S INLAND...AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

seems to be good agreements on a cape verde tracker..
Quoting 681. LargoFl:
Wait till the daytime heating, it will just funnel over us. I am wearing my waders to work.
690. SLU
Quoting 685. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



The NHC is already losing hope with 98L. Down to 30% within 5 days. My estimate was always around 10% from day one.
new yellow has an anticyclone over it. nice fanning of those clouds
Some more shots from TS Karen


693. SLU
695. SLU
I rather this system not develop and move west and bring me some rain than for it to develop into some crappy storm that results in a waste of a name and pulls all the moisture out into the open Atlantic.

698. VR46L
Quoting 692. GatorWX:
Some more shots from TS Karen




A few nice waves for the long board !
700. JRRP

Quoting SLU:
I rather this system not develop and move west and bring me some rain than for it to develop into some crappy storm that results in a waste of a name and pulls all the moisture out into the open Atlantic.


yes... i would say the same
Another year, another tropical system ruining my yearly fishing trip. Last year it was Sandy and this year its gonna be Karen. I was much happier a few days ago when the plan was for this thing to be outta here with the front by Tuesday. Now I get to sit on the beach in 60 degree weather with a constant threat of rain for three days. Blah!
The rain is coming.

Narda at 45 kts in the 12z update.

EP, 14, 2013100712, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1219W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 50, 1009, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M,
Quoting 695. SLU:
I rather this system not develop and move west and bring me some rain than for it to develop into some crappy storm that results in a waste of a name and pulls all the moisture out into the open Atlantic.



After a year of crappy storms, I agree, I can't stand to see another one of these abominations.
Can ya use some words other than the lowest here?

Young folk come here to learn about the weather, not bad english.
Quoting 702. Doss2k:
Another year, another tropical system ruining my yearly fishing trip. Last year it was Sandy and this year its gonna be Karen. I was much happier a few days ago when the plan was for this thing to be outta here with the front by Tuesday. Now I get to sit on the beach in 60 degree weather with a constant threat of rain for three days. Blah!




Karen is just not a well-behaved girl.
I usually like those types.
Rather interesting bend in this system here...

Will we see this in our basin this year?



Nope.
710. vis0
CREDIT: ERAU.edu  SUBJECT: Ex-Karen2013  PERIOD: 201310-07'0745_'1115UTC  SAT TYPE: Day/night combo

If VId doesn't plat click play bar
It's really windy and dark here.Had a few sprinkle showers earlier.It's really humid outside.
Good Morning. The remnants of Karen were a non-event for the Florida Big Bend; looks like a normal frontal rain event for the rest of Florida at the moment.

In retrospect, there was a lot of debate last week as to hurricane versus dissipation but the fact is that Karen was heading into considerable sheer and dry air in the Gulf. Illustrates the fact, as to tropical storms, that "all" of the big factors have to gel simultaneously (warm ssts, low shear, moist environment, etc.) in order for a tropical storm to get going.

I learned a lot during this storm as it was a textbook lesson on sheer/dry air issues in spite of otherwise favorable conditions. Biggest lesson was related a patience when it comes to tropical storms; as good as she looked near the Yucatan Channel, and given the mythology of storms in the Gulf, anything could have actually happened and and it turned out to be non-development.

Assuming that we do not have a major hurricane form between now and the end of the season, it has been another good year for the Caribbean and Conus regardless of the blown pre-season forecasts.
Quoting 689. Pallis:
Wait till the daytime heating, it will just funnel over us. I am wearing my waders to work.
yeah a stormy day for us alright
the BOC might get active once the front calms down...
Today






later in the week
718. MahFL
ex Karen sure looks lively on radar.
Quoting 709. FunnelVortex:
Will we see this in our basin this year?



Nope.
We'll be lucky to see a cat 1 with 90mph winds.
720. VR46L
721. MahFL
Quoting 712. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. The remnants of Karen were a non-event for the Florida Big Bend


She has not come ashore yet.

Warm humid air in North Central Florida, the sun has a halo. Looking at the radar showing Karen's remnants heading this way, I can see why.

That radar animation of Dana was double plus good.

So were corn pancakes today. Who knew.

Typhoon Danas



I have to say, it's most probably my favourite looking storm of the year so far!
724. MTWX
Morning All! A nice crisp 48 degrees here this morning!! Fall is in the air!! Highs this week are forecasted to only be in the lower to mid 70's.
HOW DID I KNOW THIS WAS COMING????

Statement as of 8:56 AM EDT on October 07, 2013



... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 915 am EDT for
Berkeley... Jefferson and Washington counties...

At 853 am EDT... severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Inwood to
Charles Town... and were moving northeast at 50 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasantville...
Antietam...
Shepherdstown...
Bakerton...
Sharpsburg...
Gapland...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under Highway overpasses. As a last
resort... either park and stay in your vehicle... or abandon your
vehicle and lay flat in a low spot.

These tornadoes may be wrapped in rain and hard to see. Do not wait
to see or hear the tornadoes. Take cover now.

0.0 huge tornado watch now.

Look at it bending!

Quoting 721. MahFL:


She has not come ashore yet.



Sorry; you are correct...........Non-event, so far other than me having to cancel my fishing trip yesterday because of the chop.... :)
729. SLU
We are well on the way to having the first season since 1968 to go without at least one category 2 hurricane in a year with SSTs as high as +0.7, no El Nino, low wind shear relative to normal, low SLPs and in the midst of an active era. Surely there's something going on out there that needs to be studied.

Quoting 729. SLU:
We are well on the way to having the first season since 1968 to go without at least one category 2 hurricane in a year with SSTs as high as 0.7, no El Nino, low wind shear relative to normal, low SLPs and in the midst of an active era. Surely there's something going on out there that needs to be studied.



There will be lots of post-season papers on these issues that are probably going to come out in the Spring met journals. Will be interesting to see what they come up with. Dry & very stable air in the tropical Atlantic now for 2-3 years in a row which has suppressed storm activity. It did not help, the Atlantic season, that the E-Pac was so active this year either; part of the answer is that observed inverse relationship between the two basins per Klotzbach.
Quoting 723. Envoirment:
Typhoon Danas



I have to say, it's most probably my favourite looking storm of the year so far!



The perfectly round typhoon.
Quoting 602. sar2401:

See post #599. I think I answered all your insults there.


Whatever. They weren't insults. You made some rather strong claims without any supporting evidence. Your implication was that by firing people that you subjectively think are non-essential, that would somehow provide enough funding to improve weather forecasting.

As counter points:

1. Even "cheap" satellites costs $100+ million dollars. And that' just to build and launch it.
2. Super computer upgrades can easily cost millions of dollars.
3. Developing/improving models and other software can easily cost millions of dollars.

To get an even better idea of how much and where the money goes, you can take a look at the NOAA budget which is available online.

Now you may argue that things could be more efficient. You may argue that there is waste. You may argue that you would do things differently and better. And you could be correct on all counts. But building up a strawman argument isn't a good way to support your case.
733. VR46L
The only accurate forecast all season...



Quoting 726. Torito:
0.0 huge tornado watch now.



Yeah, my NOAA radio just went off about the watch in my area.
Quoting 732. Xyrus2000:




... So Monday mayhem starts now.... Time for me to vanish for a bit.
Naa, just messing with you.

Yes, the storms coming through may get pretty bad later tonight, considering that we just got a tornado warning already....

I believe this general part of the system is the culprit.

Good Morning All..
Karen was a non-event here..
All I got was an abundance of clouds, a few spinkles and winds of 12-18mph of swampy humid air..
This AM I have a pleasant temp of 62 degrees with 10mph wind from the North..
What a difference from yesterday..
Thank goodness Karen was a no show..
An intense Cat 3 or above would have destroyed alot of the central gulf coast if it followed the same path as Karen..
If thats all we get this year I will be pleased.. :)

Beach cam shows Karens clouds rapidly moving east..
A nice day in store for beach goers but a little too windy for me..

I'm just waiting for the cold air to hurry in after this front.
Good morning gang. Winds were stronger with the front passing yesterday afternoon than with Karen, thank goodness. 55 and 58%humidity this morning at 0530 on the northshore of lake Ponchartrain. Very nice
Quoting 715. LargoFl:
the BOC might get active once the front calms down...


You're right. Here are the highs for Austin for 10 days: 86/86/86/84/88/90/84/82/81/79, with high rain chances for the last five, which I haven't seen verify in years.

Whoever wrote the forecast sees the BOC coming ashore eventually and stalling, it would suggest.
Quoting 736. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Karen was a non-event here..
All I got was an abundance of clouds, a few spinkles and winds of 12-18mph of swampy humid air..
This AM I have a pleasant temp of 62 degrees with 10mph wind from the North..
What a difference from yesterday..
Thank goodness Karen was a no show..
An intense Cat 3 or above would have destroyed alot of the central gulf coast if it followed the same path as Karen..
If thats all we get this year I will be pleased.. :)

Beach cam shows Karens clouds rapidly moving east..
A nice day in stoer for beach goers but a little too windy for me..



Good morning everyone! I received just under an inch of rain from Karen and the 62 degrees this morning feels great! Fall is in the air in NW Florida!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 7 2013
====================================

The Low Pressure Area over Tenasserim coast & neighborhood now lies over Tenasserim coast & adjoining north Andaman sea.

It would concentrate into depression during next 24 hours and move slowly in west northwesterly direction initially. It would emerge in Andaman sea during next 24 hours and will intensify further
Finally..60's for a change as highs.
Quoting 737. washingtonian115:
I'm just waiting for the cold air to hurry in after this front.


Morning Washi.. :)
Looks like your in for some weather today..
Keep safe up there!!

Quoting 740. 69Viking:


Good morning everyone! I received just under an inch of rain from Karen and the 62 degrees this morning feels great! Fall is in the air in NW Florida!


Morning 69.. :)
Feels great outside..
You received a bit more rain than I..
Too bad for the Red Snapper extended season for last weekend..
Maybe next year..
Seas were running 7' here..
Not gonna catch any fish riding on that!!.. :)
G'morning from Central OK,

Downright chilly cold here, we bottomed out at 40, high-30's. Thankfully, the wind isn't blowing like it was yesterday.

Should warm up into the 70's today, and with less wind forecast should be a pleasant day.

What's left of Karen will impact Central FL with a little rain, and maybe some swirly whirlies. The NE seems to be the center of attention at the moment. Makes for an even more exciting commute to work, I supppose.

In the tropics, some ATL AOI's. As pottery says, looks like CV season is starting up ;).

Hope all had a good weekend. Thanks for the breakfast ai, had not made it for a bit.

Hope a great day. Catch you later.
Quoting 743. pcola57:


Morning Washi.. :)
Looks like your in for some weather today..
Keep safe up there!!



Morning 69.. :)
Feels great outside..
You received a bit more rain than I..
Too bad for the Red Snapper extended season for last weekend..
Maybe next year..
Seas were running 7' here..
Not gonna catch any fish riding on that!!.. :)


No kidding! Stopped by the weigh ins for the fishing rodeo in Destin on Saturday and there weren't very many fish being weighed in! Things should pick up this week with these light North winds helping to calm the seas!
Quoting 739. redwagon:


You're right. Here are the highs for Austin for 10 days: 86/86/86/84/88/90/84/82/81/79, with high rain chances for the last five, which I haven't seen verify in years.

Whoever wrote the forecast sees the BOC coming ashore eventually and stalling, it would suggest.


Hey red . . .

you were the only one reasonably saying that Karen/ex-Karen would impact the Tampa region. Looks as if you nailed that one. Kudos to you.
If you look carefully at visible satellite pictures and radar, it looks like whats left of the spin of Karen is south of the big bend and west of Cedar Key. Anyone else see this... We're lucky this wasn't anything stronger lol

Eric
Quoting 747. EricfromJax:
If you look carefully at visible satellite pictures and radar, it looks like whats left of the spin of Karen is south of the big bend and west of Cedar Key. Anyone else see this... We're lucky this wasn't anything stronger lol

Eric


I think the whole coast from Louisiana to Florida should be thankful for this cold front and shear, wow what could have been
Quoting 745. 69Viking:


No kidding! Stopped by the weigh ins for the fishing rodeo in Destin on Saturday and there weren't very many fish being weighed in! Things should pick up this week with these light North winds helping to calm the seas!


Yeah saw where alot of the charter captains refused to go out..
Would have made for a miserable trip..
750. DFWjc
This is why i love my cousin..I get up to check my messages and she put this...

"The typhoon is over. I must say that it was rather disappointing."

BWHAHAHAHA
Upper 40s and low 50s in SE TX this morning. After a road trip change to Lake Charles Friday and Saturday it was hot and sunny and could of past for an August day at the resort. One day in the pool baskin' in the 90s and down to 50 the next. Got 2 days of actual summer paradise weather in October.

And Karen was joke, thing was offshore right near me and winds were calm and sky was blue
Quoting 746. daddyjames:


Hey red . . .

you were the only one reasonably saying that Karen/ex-Karen would impact the Tampa region. Looks as if you nailed that one. Kudos to you.


But I was partially wrong because I thought the escaped LLC to the W would put up *some* sort of fight instead of keeling over..

This season is late, overall, why can't TX's be a little late, too?
Quoting 747. EricfromJax:
If you look carefully at visible satellite pictures and radar, it looks like whats left of the spin of Karen is south of the big bend and west of Cedar Key. Anyone else see this... We're lucky this wasn't anything stronger lol

Eric


Yup; it is getting absorbed by the front; headed your way too towards Jax...................
Quoting 751. RitaEvac:
Upper 40s and low 50s in SE TX this morning. After a road trip change to Lake Charles Friday and Saturday it was hot and sunny and could of past for an August day at the resort. One day in the pool baskin' in the 90s and down to 50 the next. Got 2 days of actual summer paradise weather in October.

And Karen was joke, thing was offshore right near me and winds were calm and sky was blue




Look, Rita, the BOC has *a* track XD
Quoting 751. RitaEvac:
Upper 40s and low 50s in SE TX this morning. After a road trip change to Lake Charles Friday and Saturday it was hot and sunny and could of past for an August day at the resort. One day in the pool baskin' in the 90s and down to 50 the next. Got 2 days of actual summer paradise weather in October.

And Karen was joke, thing was offshore right near me and winds were calm and sky was blue


40s to 50s in in Central Texas as well. The weather this weekend was fantastic. My mom came over for dinner last night and asked if I liked the thunderstorms over night. I didn't even know we had any but sure enough I checked the rain gauge and we got a quarter inch. I guess I slept right through it. Here in Texas finding out we got rain is like finding a 20 dollar bill in your coat pocket :)
756. JRRP
yawn yawn yawn hurricane season is overe in tell 2015
Quoting 748. StormPro:


I think the whole coast from Louisiana to Florida should be thankful for this cold front and shear, wow what could have been


You could say that about any storm this season, not just Karen.
759. JRRP
Strangest. Season. Ever.
Quoting 757. Tazmanian:
yawn yawn yawn hurricane season is overe in tell 2015


2015? Are we skipping 2014?
Quoting 758. Astrometeor:


You could say that about any storm this season, not just Karen.

You're right about that and I'm not complaining
763. MahFL
Quoting 761. longislander102:


2015? Are we skipping 2014?


If it's like 2013 we might as well lol.
764. JRRP
Quoting 739. redwagon:


You're right. Here are the highs for Austin for 10 days: 86/86/86/84/88/90/84/82/81/79, with high rain chances for the last five, which I haven't seen verify in years.

Whoever wrote the forecast sees the BOC coming ashore eventually and stalling, it would suggest.
sure is alot of moisture down there.
Looks like it is going to rain in about 10 minutes here....

Good morning everyone...latest GFS has a tropical storm approaching the Lesser Antilles next week.


Link
in a half hour, we will be able to see narda in the daylight.

It looks pretty good right now, but it has a lot of room for improvement.

91W: The next typhoon??

Red..gfs says rain starts sat all the way thru tues there..good luck...
Quoting 770. Torito:
91W: The next typhoon??




yep sure looks like it
Danas looks very impressive, however you can noticeably see the slight weakening occurring, if you look at the eyewall in the floater.

The south-west portion of the cyclone is slowly weakening, as well.
This morning:145mph
Right now: 135-140mph

Quoting 772. Tazmanian:



yep sure looks like it


one thing that is not lacking this year is typhoons. :P
Quoting 739. redwagon:


You're right. Here are the highs for Austin for 10 days: 86/86/86/84/88/90/84/82/81/79, with high rain chances for the last five, which I haven't seen verify in years.

Whoever wrote the forecast sees the BOC coming ashore eventually and stalling, it would suggest.


I saw that too. Fingers crossed. I was looking at the daily data from my station for last year and by this time it was pretty much dry through the beginning of 2013. I don't even know when the so called rainy season is here any more. If this pans out we could see a couple of inches over a week period. The patterns are starting to look more and more like West Coast type seasons.
its dies around 228 hours per GFS..............
Those who want El Nino to come may have to wait a while because I have bad news to deliver.

Climate Prediction Center 10/7/13 update has Neutral thru Winter
Quoting 683. pottery:

The CV Season is starting !

heheheheh
I've read here about the season being late but don't know about the source. Did you?
Quoting 773. Torito:
Danas looks very impressive, however you can noticeably see the slight weakening occurring, if you look at the eyewall in the floater.

The south-west portion of the cyclone is slowly weakening, as well.
This morning:145mph
Right now: 135-140mph




look like they got a big miss thats good
Wow, did anyone notice weather.com's new homepage? it looks pretty nice....

782. VR46L
Quoting 770. Torito:
91W: The next typhoon??



Maybe ... one time ya look it a bunch of disorganised clouds next time its a beautiful but dangerous storm
By the way, here are the grand totals for Winter Storm Atlas.





71MPH GUSTS!
Quoting 768. LargoFl:


Wow, looks like the little BOC number is to become a reality.....
Quoting 777. Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who want El Nino to come may have to wait a while because I have bad news to deliver.

Climate Prediction Center 10/7/13 update has Neutral thru Winter



thats not news they been saying that evere update i think your this a little late or you this have not noted it in tell now
next week the fronts your's red...............
Quoting 771. LargoFl:
Red..gfs says rain starts sat all the way thru tues there..good luck...


Ahh I love those Pacific systems. That one looks like it might be worth watching. Hopefully Southern CA can get in on the action with it. They need the rain big time.


24hr rainfall : 27mm / 1.1 inch (the same amount fell during the entire month of September... a shame!)

Hopefully new developments will occur later today.
Quoting 780. Tazmanian:



look like they got a big miss thats good


Yea, I don't believe it made landfall on those islands, I think it was just barely off.
If this is what the first winter storm does to the United States, I hate to think about what some of the systems in the active part of winter do...

Quoting 767. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...latest GFS has a tropical storm approaching the Lesser Antilles next week.


Link
Ok. Good luck with that.
793. VR46L
Quoting 781. Torito:
Wow, did anyone notice weather.com's new homepage? it looks pretty nice....



Hmmm ...Yeah... very fluffy with doom in every article ... not much change in content just the look .....
The snow season is just starting now, look at Washington.

Here is the 2013 winter storm name list.... Will we get through it this year?

Quoting 775. calkevin77:


I saw that too. Fingers crossed. I was looking at the daily data from my station for last year and by this time it was pretty much dry through the beginning of 2013. I don't even know when the so called rainy season is here any more. If this pans out we could see a couple of inches over a week period. The patterns are starting to look more and more like West Coast type seasons.


Not much better than waking up to nearly a sure rain thing, huh? I don't know of the BOC guy jumped (like Hermine) or just spun up. But it doesn't seem too threatened by the front with vis, so maybe our forecast will verify ! fingers crossed too.
798. SLU
Quoting 788. CaribBoy:


24hr rainfall : 27mm / 1.1 inch (the same amount fell during the entire month of September... a shame!)

Hopefully new developments will occur later today.


Incredible
Hey largo, how are you faring down there? Karen's remnants are coming into Fl now...

Quoting 799. Torito:
Hey largo, how are you faring down there? Karen's remnants are coming into Fl now...

well right now no rain, had some heavy rains and wind earlier..probably more coming in thru the day..nice outside right now.
Quoting 788. CaribBoy:


24hr rainfall : 27mm / 1.1 inch (the same amount fell during the entire month of September... a shame!)

Hopefully new developments will occur later today.
New developments?
Quoting 793. VR46L:


Hmmm ...Yeah... very fluffy with doom in every article ... not much change in content just the look .....


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)
Quoting 800. LargoFl:
well right now no rain, had some heavy rains and wind earlier..probably more coming in thru the day..nice outside right now.


Exact opposite here, gray skies with light rain, and forecast to become heavy in the next few hours before tapering off around 6-8 PM.
Tornado watch from the midlantic up into the northeast coastal states....
Quoting 802. calkevin77:


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)


Ikr! those hornets are deadly! (just like everything else, according to TWC.)
Quoting 795. Torito:
Here is the 2013 winter storm name list.... Will we get through it this year?




yes we all ready had the 1st winter name storm of the season
Quoting 806. Tazmanian:



yes we all ready had the 1st winter name storm of the season


Well, historically, weak hurricane seasons correspond to strong winter seasons.(Something has to balance the heat in the tropics out, right?) :P
809. VR46L
Quoting 804. LargoFl:
Tornado watch from the midlantic up into the northeast coastal states....


That is a huge area

Quoting 795. Torito:
Here is the 2013 winter storm name list.... Will we get through it this year?

I love this name list for next year hurricane season
Quoting 805. Torito:


Ikr! those hornets are deadly! (just like everything else, according to TWC.)


Lol. No kidding. I've dealt with my fare share of wasps but if I came across hornets that size in my yard there would be a can of WD-40 in one hand and a lighter in the other.
812. VR46L
Quoting 802. calkevin77:


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)


I saw ,the 2050 how we are going to die one, and left.....
Quoting 811. calkevin77:


Lol. No kidding. I've dealt with my fare share of wasps but if I came across hornets that size in my yard there would be a can of WD-40 in one hand and a lighter in the other.


LOL, its funny how any insect sprayed with WD-40 literally burns to death.....

Anyways, im out of here for about 2 hours. Cyas!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 122.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Quoting 810. prcane4you:
I love this name list for next year hurricane season




thats list is not for hurricane season the name list i for winter storm names for this comeing winter season
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

NARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE
45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.
NARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING
WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS
PREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF.

NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
NARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON. IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN
STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES
COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND
NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY
SENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE
LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR
SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 785. Tazmanian:



thats not news they been saying that evere update i think your this a little late or you this have not noted it in tell now


I had to post the CPC update as last week a blogger repeated many times that El Nino was brewing. I will not say the name of the blogger but many know who he is.
wonder how my friends in Sarasota are making out down there............
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 952 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

Quoting 815. Tazmanian:




thats list is not for hurricane season the name list i for winter storm names for this comeing winter season
I know that.Just said I liked this names for a hurricane season.What do you think about a hurricane Maximus,Atlas.etc.
90W is inbetween the Gulf Of Thailand & The Andaman Sea




GFS at 120 hours for 90W



If this verifies, we could be looking at the deadliest storm this year so far.
822. MahFL
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

It's updating again.