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Tropical Storm Joaquin a Potential Threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:02 PM GMT on September 29, 2015

Tropical Storm Joaquin formed on Monday evening in the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, and could be a threat to both the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast late this week. Joaquin was struggling some on Tuesday morning, due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the north-northwest. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air lay to the northwest of Joaquin, and the strong wind shear was driving this dry air into Joaquin's core, keeping the low-level center of circulation exposed to view with all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms limited to the southeast side of the center, as seen on visible satellite loops. However, the thunderstorms maintained their vigor with the help of record warm waters and excellent outflow toward the south side of Joaquin, allowing the storm to intensify to 50 mph winds by 11 am EDT Tuesday. Ocean temperatures in the region are near 30°C (86°F)--the warmest seen there since record keeping began in 1880. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into Joaquin on Tuesday afternoon, and the first dropsonde mission from the NOAA jet is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, as well.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Joaquin.

Forecast for Joaquin
The forecast for Joaquin is very complex, and the confidence in both the intensity and track forecast for the storm is very low. Joaquin is trapped to the south of a high pressure system whose clockwise flow will push the cyclone very slowly to the west or west-southwest at about 4 - 5 mph. As the storm gets farther from the high, the strong upper-level winds out of the north currently bringing high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots will gradually decrease, allowing Joaquin to strengthen. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Joaquin would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Tuesday evening, then to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Wednesday through Thursday. It would not be a surprise if Joaquin was a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday. As Joaquin progresses to the west, the storm will also increasingly "feel" the steering influence of a strong trough of low pressure situated over the Eastern United States. This trough features a flow of winds from southwest to northeast, which will tend to push Joaquin more to the north or northeast, roughly parallel to the U.S. coast or out to sea towards Bermuda. However, the models are showing huge differences from run-to-run and with each other on just how this trough will develop and interact with Joaquin. The Tuesday morning (00Z and 06Z) runs of the GFS model showed the trough absorbing Joaquin and destroying the storm by this weekend. The 00Z Tuesday run of the European model showed Joaquin getting slung northeastwards out to sea, well away from the U.S. coast. The 00Z Tuesday run of the UKMET model had Joaquin interacting with the trough in such a way that the trough would tilt westwards, leading to the unusual situation that we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, where the storm would head towards the coast on a northwesterly track (this was also the solution the European model had in its run 12 hours previously.) The 06Z Tuesday runs of the GFDL and HWRF models had Joaquin heading northeast out to sea, then rotating back to the northwest this weekend to potentially threaten the Northeast U.S. as a strong tropical storm. The models are so different, in part, due to the uncertainty with how long Joaquin's current slow motion will last. Another wildcard how the moisture from tropical disturbance 99L, which pushed ashore into the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, will affect the trough of low pressure that will be steering Joaquin later this week. The long-range forecast is complicated by the possible interaction with the remains of Tropical Storm Ida (now designated as Invest 90L), centered at 11 am EDT Tuesday about 1000 miles east of Joaquin. their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively. Data from the NOAA jet from today should make Tuesday night's 00Z suite of computer model forecasts more reliable than the Tuesday morning runs, though.


Figure 2. Two model runs, just 12 hours apart, from one of our top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the European model--showed radically different solutions over 900 miles apart for where Joaquin might be in 5 - 5.5 days. Image credit: wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.

Regardless: heavy rain event coming to northern Appalachians and New England
Adding to the complexity and hazard of this situation, an unusually intense heavy-rain event will be striking the northern Appalachians and New England over the next 2-3 days. These rains would greatly enhance the potential for Joaquin to cause flooding afterward if it happened to move nearby. Over the next couple of days, deep tropical moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to extremely high amounts of water vapor for the location and time of year. This moisture will intercept a preexisting frontal boundary, as rain-producing impulses move along the east side of the sprawling upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is calling for a band of widespread 3-5” rainfall from central Pennsylvania to southern Maine. Models are in fairly strong agreement that this heavy rain will develop, but there is some uncertainty on where the rains will be heaviest--in particular, the placement of the southwest-northeast stripe where training echoes could lead to particularly large amounts. The 0600 GMT (2:00 am EDT) Tuesday runs of the NAM and GFS models indicate a large swath of 4-5” rainfall, with many embedded areas of 5-10” potential, through 2:00 am EDT Friday, extending from Pennsylvania and New York across northern and central New England. Dry conditions have prevailed over the mid-Atlantic and New England over the last few weeks, with moderate drought near the coast, so most locations could handle several inches of rain before flash flooding became an issue. Any direct impacts from Joaquin would only add to the eventual flood risk.

 
Figure 3. Projected 3-day rainfall totals from 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) Tuesday, September 29, 2015, through 1200 GMT Friday, October 2. Isolated local amounts could be considerably higher. 

 
Figure 4. Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) plumes, produced at 0300 GMT (11:00 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 29, 2015, showing potential rainfall in Boston through 1800 GMT (2:00 pm EDT) Friday, October 2. Each trace corresponds to a particular model run. The ensemble average indicates that around 3" - 4" could be expected, though larger amounts are possible. The ensemble consists of three model "families" (WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, and NAM), each run with varying initial conditions to represent uncertainty in the atmosphere's starting point. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

We'll have a full update on the Joaquin this afternoon by 4 pm EDT, when the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) suite of model runs will be available. We'll also have an update on the action in the remainder of the tropics.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

East Atlantic is looking interesting as well with a developing cyclone over the Azores, and in the Mediterranean moisture is rushing in to form another cyclone with some tropical characteristics which should have its center over Sardinia on Thursday and Friday, dumping a lot of rain on the region. Italy is in full alert because of this system.






Accumulated rain until Friday.

18z Spaghetti Models.
Quoting 492. Tazmanian:

this is for TD 11 the 1st day


Tropical Depression ELEVEN well oops on that

NHC has been kinda off along with the , I don't trust them at all any past 72 hrs anymore lol. Heck even within 48hrs has been bad.
I never trust (or take my eyes off of) a ULL in the neighborhood of the Turks and Caicos.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 33m33 minutes ago
TS #Joaquin satellite appearance rapidly improving. Deep convection over center. Expecting NHC to have hurricane in forecast in 24-hrs
Curious to see what NHC will do with the track at the 5pm update.
Quoting 509. Climate175:

Curious to see what NHC will do with the track at the 5pm update.
No doubt a hurricane is imminent.
Quoting 509. Climate175:

Curious to see what NHC will do with the track at the 5pm update.
shift west
Latest image and wow at that convection.
Remember earlier people were saying the NAM solution was terrible..

18z 4km running



Just updated. Oh my.
Intense cold clouds.

Quoting 465. pipelines:

hmmm what's this low doing off the Texas coast?


Just sorta sitting there. It only got a cursory acknowledgement this morning by local Mets and it hasn't been doing much of anything on model runs.
Quoting 516. Grothar:

Intense cold clouds.


Beat you to the image. ;)
Quoting 508. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 33m33 minutes ago
TS #Joaquin satellite appearance rapidly improving. Deep convection over center. Expecting NHC to have hurricane in forecast in 24-hrs


It will be one at 11pm
Levi in his video mentioned the John Hope rule that came true when dealing with Danny and to some extent Bill from earlier in the season.Pay attention to the low level structure of a storm.Jauquin has great structure and when the shear lowers with relatively high RI value like the NHC mentions and boiling water its no wonder the models (with exception of the GFS that doesn't even "see" the storm) intensifies Jauquin rather rapidly.
Quoting 515. tampabaymatt:



Just updated. Oh my.
That rainfall total map is just getting brighter and brighter.
Quoting 515. tampabaymatt:



Just updated. Oh my.

Quoting 522. Patrap:



Oh boy....
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago
The US has not had a hurricane impact in Sep since 2008 (Ike) - 7 yrs, breaking the prev record set from 1990-1995.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
Been a while since I've had the tingly feeling about a storm-- might be a really interesting week! #Joaquin
Don't forget the West Pacific, about to produce another monster likely going into the weekend. Poor 99L, shear crushed all western convection and the storm hit Florida, collapsed and died.
Quoting 515. tampabaymatt:



Just updated. Oh my.


I have never seen anything like that before
A decent blow from Joaquin would be bad here with our saturated soil from this past weekend's foot of rain. Watching this one closely. Hopefully, he stays offshore.
532. JLPR2
Buoy to the NW of Joaquin.

Quoting 526. Stormchaser2007:

lol


936mb
Quoting 523. Climate175:

That rainfall total map just got brighter, which means increasing chance for very heavy rainy.
high impact event
CyberTeddy great job with the incredible pressure drop reading information from the NHC. This Tropical Storm means business
The PHM model shows a 925 mb storm in central Bahamas in 72 hrs.(Guess what stands for PHM - it's easy one)
Quoting 530. VAbeachhurricanes:



I have never seen anything like that before
could be a life changing event for some
Euro ensembles are keeping this near the coast, and are in line with the HWRF, UKMET, and the CMC.
That WPC QPF map is not even a Joaquin landfall..

any deviation to their thinking to the left of their track and it would be something not seen before from NC northwards..

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150929 1745 26.2 71.3 T3.0/3.0 11L JOAQUIN
20150929 1145 26.6 70.7 T3.0/3.0 11L JOAQUIN
Florida must be Blessed and favored because that state keeps dodging the proverbial Hurricane Bullet
Quoting 527. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago
The US has not had a hurricane impact in Sep since 2008 (Ike) - 7 yrs, breaking the prev record set from 1990-1995.



We haven't has a hurricane impact? Let's see...

Irene. Sandy. Isaac... to name a few.

I'm sure they mean a major impact.
Quoting 515. tampabaymatt:



Just updated. Oh my.


What the heck.

What's strange is that I check the NWS offices up there, and none of them are calling for widespread 8-9 inches of rain over the entire area. They are still showing major rain even of 2-4 inches with locally high amounts. Interesting difference there.

Some model are off the charts with the rain amounts though, so we'll see.
3:57 PM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
nova scotia

Potential for a significant rainfall event beginning later on Wednesday.

A slow moving cold front will approach the province from the northwest on Wednesday and will likely spread rain at times heavy across the province later on Wednesday and persist well into Thursday. Due to the expected slow-moving nature of this front combined with an increased likelihood tropical moisture associated with a system off the Eastern Seaboard will feed into it, it is looking increasingly likely Nova Scotia could see very high rainfall amounts by the time this system departs later Thursday night or Friday. While there still remains some uncertainty with respect to the timing and exact location of heaviest rainfall, several long range models indicate total amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Don't look now but the ghost of Ida may be in favorable conditions to develop soon, will she follow Joaquin or will she go west?
Quoting 542. hurricanes2018:

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150929 1745 26.2 71.3 T3.0/3.0 11L JOAQUIN
20150929 1145 26.6 70.7 T3.0/3.0 11L JOAQUIN


Dvorak constraints mate.
TXNT23 KNES 291808
TCSNTL

A. 11L (JOAQUIN)

B. 29/1745Z

C. 26.2N

D. 71.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER ON
EDGE OF OVERCAST. PT=3.0. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1440Z 26.3N 71.0W AMSU
Quoting 459. JrWeathermanFL:



Tell me that's not 957mb and that my eyes are terrible.
For some reason, the current 12z at 72 hours has the low at 958 mb, not that it makes much difference. The most interesting thing is that it indeed turns Joaquin on a 180 at 120 hours and sends it right back where it came from. I suspect the models really don't have a great handle on this storm yet.

Quoting 537. PolishHurrMaster:

The PHM model shows a 925 mb storm in central Bahamas in 72 hrs.(Guess what stands for PHM - it's easy one)


Pure Hogwash Model?


look like in this run the heavy rain back up to the west
Okay I'm out..I got to get some work down..been on here all day..I'll be back later..

updated 12z UKMET ensembles..

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS LATER
THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
4:31 PM NDT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
western newfoundland
•Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Potentially heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday.

Rain will spread across Western Newfoundland early Wednesday and is expected to become heavy by Thursday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches. Forecast guidance is suggesting this low could draw in tropical moisture from another system off Florida. With this scenario, there is the potential for rainfall amounts in excess of 100 millimetres in some areas by Friday afternoon.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 29
Location: 26.0°N 71.0°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Quoting 553. DeepSeaRising:



Pure Hogwash Model?


No
65 mph
rivers are already raging in virginia. no models a week ago even had a clue.
...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during
the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern
edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus
motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more
prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is
consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level,
dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and
the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable
upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official
forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories.
Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with
additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output.

Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and
the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently
south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The
ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone
to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical
models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore. The official forecast lies between these
possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPm

wow 90mph now big jump up
Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.
lets keep any politics out of the blog at this time we are in full storm mode now and for the next 4 maybe 5 days off topic comments will be removed

thankyou
I think Jauquin will be the benchmark for ULL's that work their way down to the surface in the future.He sure is putting on a show.
Quoting 535. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

high impact event


Throughout recorded history there have been some nasty hurricanes that just curved before making land fall. The express something or another in the 30's didn't though. Was a crazy storm and storm surge. Should google it, but I'm too dang tired and the kiddo will be home any moment. Could be a close call.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 9m9 minutes ago
#Joaquin largely boils down to a short-term steering problem near a col. Position at 48-72hr determines the 120hr forecast point.
watch out here!!! Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.
Quoting 544. FunnelVortex:



We haven't has a hurricane impact? Let's see...

Irene. Sandy. Isaac... to name a few.

I'm sure they mean a major impact.



Sandy was not a hurricane when it hit new york it was then call super storm Sandy
It has...the look

Quoting 544. FunnelVortex:



We haven't has a hurricane impact? Let's see...

Irene. Sandy. Isaac... to name a few.

I'm sure they mean a major impact.

Not to mention Arthur last year
In terms of the track...



I think that's enough to show the level of uncertainty with this storm.
Quoting 575. Stormchaser2007:

It has...the look


I remember people saying that for Erika.
Quoting 571. DeepSeaRising:



Throughout recorded history there have been some nasty hurricanes that just curved before making land fall. The express something or another in the 30's didn't though. Was a crazy storm and storm surge. Should google it, but I'm too dang tired and the kiddo will be home any moment. Could be a close call.


Here ya go!
They are in the same building, you would think coordination would be better.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015



Excerpt:

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ARE NOW UNDER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES.
Quoting 577. Climate175:




They shifted cone further east. Hmm. What are they seeing?
Quoting 574. Tazmanian:




Sandy was not a hurricane when it hit new york it was then call super storm Sandy


Which was stupid IMO, as strong as that storm was they should have left called a Hurricane so people took it more seriously.
Quoting 504. Patrap:



Is it me but it looks to be going slightly faster than 5 mph maybe 7-8... but then again that is why I wear glasses lol!
re - 577

oh bloddy 'ell

(hey keeper, no politics is fine- but can we still have a sense of humor?)
Quoting 576. all4hurricanes:


Not to mention Arthur last year
None of those were in September
Quoting 584. 69Viking:



Which was stupid IMO, as strong as that storm was they should have left called a Hurricane so people took it more seriously.


Not to mention it did most of its damage while it was still tropical.
Quoting 584. 69Viking:



Which was stupid IMO, as strong as that storm was they should have left called a Hurricane so people took it more seriously.



it was what it was at the time
Big uncertainties, that's not good, for sure.
I just don't understand how Florida keeps dodging hurricane hits. It's almost like a force field is surrounding us. Everyone keeps saying that this is the year, but I don't know anymore....
Quoting 544. FunnelVortex:



We haven't has a hurricane impact? Let's see...

Irene. Sandy. Isaac... to name a few.

I'm sure they mean a major impact.
Did you read all or just finish where it said no hurricane impact?
Quoting 586. aquak9:

re - 577

oh bloddy 'ell

(hey keeper, no politics is fine- but can we still have a sense of humor?)

every once in a while is ok but once it overtakes the info then well its got too go
Quoting 584. 69Viking:



Which was stupid IMO, as strong as that storm was they should have left called a Hurricane so people took it more seriously.


Thank You! Superstorm is a term with no real meaning, and so of course the media loved it. But to me that was Hurricane Sandy that landed.
Quoting 591. stormchaser19:

Big uncertainties, that's not good, for sure.

That model that brings it back to Africa has to be the right one...
I have never heard of the Superensemble Model until today's NHC discussion..they pulling out the big guns..

The Superensemble is an intelligent averaging technique that squeezes useful information from an ensemble of objective forecasts to produce optimal guidance for decision makers. The Superensemble has significant advantages over simple forecast averaging: it corrects for known biases in the individual objective forecasts, and it weights them to leverage the fact that objective forecasting tools often have regional skill variations.

The most efficient way to improve Superensemble forecasts is to improve the individual objective forecasts in the ensemble. These forecasts are derived from computer models, often referred to as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which simultaneously simulate the physics of the evolving storm, the surrounding atmosphere, and the ocean below. At WeatherPredict Consulting, we have developed in-house NWP forecasting tools based on NOAA GFDL hurricane model. We run these models four times daily to simulate the future of all tropical cyclones on the planet, and the resultant forecasts are key inputs into the Superensemble forecasting system.
Quoting 569. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets keep any politics out of the blog at this time we are in full storm mode now and for the next 4 maybe 5 days off topic comments will be removed

thankyou


But, but, but...this storm looks like it is headed to D.C.! How am going to make a crack about it cleaning the place up?
Latest cone seems to be a bit more east. Not saying that I agree with it but there is so much uncertainty for its future track. For now, I want to see what Joaquin does in his immediate enviorment.
OK out for today(it's after 11pm in Poland). Joaquin - please continue to entertain us.
601. 900MB
Quoting 583. aasmith26:



They shifted cone further east. Hmm. What are they seeing?


Guess they are splitting difference w gfs which doesnt add up to me.
Quoting 579. Gearsts:

I remember people saying that for Erika.
Erika never had structure but Jauquin does.It was literally a rolling ball of convection with multiple centers.
Quoting 592. Camerooski:

I just don't understand how Florida keeps dodging hurricane hits. It's almost like a force field is surrounding us. Everyone keeps saying that this is the year, but I don't know anymore....


We've expanded the Tampa Force Field to encompass the whole state!
Quoting 588. Tazmanian:




no off topic photos wish is a part of your guys sense of humor stay on topic
taz quit playing mod you are causing the problem not resolving it please I ask ya nice
I doubt this'll get close enough to the Florida east coast to cause anything more than rough surf conditions and maybe some 20mph gusts if it becomes a major and gets as close as the Euro is suggesting. My first concern is with the Bahamas, as strongly built its structures are.
Quoting 591. stormchaser19:

Big uncertainties, that's not good, for sure.




this has hurricane sandy 2.0 all over the models
So i assume we can move past blobcon #4 now?.
Quoting 584. 69Viking:



Which was stupid IMO, as strong as that storm was they should have left called a Hurricane so people took it more seriously.


It was until about an hour before landfall, so they did for most of it.
Quoting 581. Tazmanian:





you for got too add off topic photos in there has well


heh now i get too have my fun in flaging any off topic photo i see posted on the blog


Taz is like the back up refs in football, he's ready to be put in as mod if needed. There would be three people left on the blog. It's fun flagging photos meant for humor typically? Come on man! And Yet Taz still remains in many ways endearing.
Quoting 601. 900MB:



Guess they are splitting difference w gfs which doesnt add up to me.


GFS is whack!
Quoting 604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

taz quit playing mod you are causing the problem not resolving it please I ask ya nice




ok i will stop
Quoting 601. 900MB:



Guess they are splitting difference w gfs which doesnt add up to me.
Considering that the GFS is 100% wrong and they are considering it is just dumb.
Quoting 602. washingtonian115:

Erika never had structure but Jauquin does.It was literally a rolling ball of convection with multiple centers.
I'm still very salty since Erika gave me the middle finger.
614. 900MB
Quoting 590. Tazmanian:




it was was it was at the time


That was in deference to insurance companies. A non tropical system was treated differently and cost ins cos less and insured more.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I doubt this is possibility, but is it possible for this thing to dip far enough south for it not to be pickes up? It doesn't seem likely imo.
617. 900MB
Quoting 612. Camerooski:

Considering that the GFS is 100% wrong and they are considering it is just dumb.


I agree! Track should reflect scrape of OBX imo.
with all eyes on the TS,no one is watching the weak gulf low..could be a surprise......................
Quoting 592. Camerooski:

I just don't understand how Florida keeps dodging hurricane hits. It's almost like a force field is surrounding us. Everyone keeps saying that this is the year, but I don't know anymore....
That's because whoever "everyone" is doesn't actually know what's going to happen in the next 8 hours, let alone the rest of the season. We have no idea where Joaquin is going to end up at this point. Just watch the synoptics and, secondarily, the models, at this point. If there's no sign of a turn by late Thursday, let alone Friday, Florida is on the table.
Quoting 571. DeepSeaRising:



Throughout recorded history there have been some nasty hurricanes that just curved before making land fall. The express something or another in the 30's didn't though. Was a crazy storm and storm surge. Should google it, but I'm too dang tired and the kiddo will be home any moment. Could be a close call.


This would be the infamous "Long Island Express" storm in 1938. It maintained intensity because it was moving VERY fast, about 60mph at landfall and traversed 60 miles of cold water south of LI in less than an hour. That's also how we got Hazel in 1954 to deliver a 91mph wind at DCA, still the station record, after traversing 300 miles of land in perhaps five hours so only time to decay from cat 4 to cat 2. And this setup is most common late in the season (October)
With the way things have been going this season, I suspect to see the cone over Florida in 2 days...
Quoting 591. stormchaser19:

Big uncertainties, that's not good, for sure.

Quoting 603. 69Viking:



We've expanded the Tampa Force Field to encompass the whole state!


Please extend to DC metro! Thank you.
Quoting 619. sar2401:

That's because whoever "everyone" is doesn't actually know what's going to happen in the next 8 hours, let alone the rest of the season. We have no idea where Joaquin is going to end up at this point. Just watch the synoptics and, secondarily, the models, at this point. If there's no sign of a turn by late Thursday, let alone Friday, Florida is on the table.
I 100% agree with you but all my friends and neighbors don't take anything serious anymore, they say "Oh, It will just curve and hit Carolina like the other ones." They have forgotten all the other ones...

Quoting 518. Sandcat:

Just sorta sitting there. It only got a cursory acknowledgement this morning by local Mets and it hasn't been doing much of anything on model runs.
Basically, it's waiting for the longwave trough to come in on Thursday and Friday to give it the boot outtathere.
As for Joaquin?? WOW...could an El Nino year produce the first major hurricane to hit the continental US in 10 years??
I don't see it going as far west as Florida, though..that same longwave trough that will boot that ULL out of the NW GoM is going to drive a cool front through LA and shut down the western Gulf for good; it will also reinforce NW flow aloft as far east as FL Panhandle, and W/SW aloft across the rest of FL. At best, he stalls near central/northern Bahamas, then one of two scenarios:
1) Gets jerked NE to ENE out to the open Atlantic, maybe bothering Bermuda en route;
or, 
2) Turns initially NNE, then gets sucked into inverted trough N then NW towards US Eastern Seaboard from OBX north to NJ/NY (Son of Sandy).
Either way, with that nice hot water there that hasn't been tapped, Joaq could get nasty indeed...as in Cat 3 nasty. Plus, two words of caution for Mid Atlantic coastal states: Gulf Stream. 
2015 season might not be so boring for the Atlantic Basin after all. 
Quoting 612. Camerooski:

Considering that the GFS is 100% wrong and they are considering it is just dumb.
The GFS is not 100% wrong. The ECMWF has the storm turning back on itself. In less than 48 hours, we should have a clear idea of what Joaquin is going to do based on track. The models aren't going to be of any help now.
Quoting 621. SecretStormNerd:

With the way things have been going this season, I suspect to see the cone over Florida in 2 days...
more than likely and somehow this will probably go through S. Fl and end up in the gulf... lol
Quoting 626. sar2401:

The GFS is not 100% wrong. The ECMWF has the storm turning back on itself. In less than 48 hours, we should have a clear idea of what Joaquin is going to do based on track. The models aren't going to be of any help now.
They have Joaquin having max winds of 60 mph. It's 65 right now...
Very good camerooski
I got a good chuckle about model going to africa must be the right one.
Seems to b that anything goes this year
I still think that negative tilt of jet stream predicted for weekend will pretty much put africa out of the cone
Beautiful day of surf in the Abacos.
Quoting 607. MeteorologistTV:

So i assume we can move past blobcon #4 now?.


When it reaches invest stage, blobcon 4 destination goes away. There is no blobcon 5. Not yet anyway. Hate to every see the day blobcon 5 is needed.
Quoting 624. Camerooski:

I 100% agree with you but all my friends and neighbors don't take anything serious anymore, they say "Oh, It will just curve and hit Carolina like the other ones." They have forgotten all the other ones...
There will be watches and warnings to get their attention if Florida's at risk. Until then, they will think whatever they are going to think. Florida is sometimes hit by storms with less than a 48 hour warning period. This may be one of those storms, or it may go back OTS. All we can do is watch.
Tropical Storm Joaquin has potential to be a very bad storm along the East Coast of the United States, but a lot of uncertainty remains. Like Danny, Joaquin shown us this afternoon that systems with vigorous low-level centers can intensify quickly when given a favorable environment. Based on upper-level maps from the GFS, the environment should only become more conducive over the coming days as an anticyclone builds overhead. This setup will be exacerbated by the extreme flow around the base of the negatively-tilted trough across the East Coast and also the presence of an upper-level low to the system's east. Such a configuration would provide great poleward and equatorward outflow channels, opening up the potential for very significant intensification. It may turn out that the intensities being depicted by the UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, GFDL, etc. are not as far fetched.

As Levi tweeted a while ago, the forecast track for Joaquin boils down to its position over the next few days. If Joaquin meanders farther west, it'll be inclined to become involved with the N-S flow of the trough and eventually turn into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coastline. However, if Joaquin is farther east than expected, it'll be inclined to take a weakness created by the remnants of Ida and head out to sea.

There's a lot to monitor...

Quoting 628. Camerooski:

They have Joaquin having max winds of 60 mph. It's 65 right now...
As I said, the models aren't going to be of any help. They always have to play catch up with a rapidly developing storm. Meteorology and synoptics are the only things that are going to be of any help. This is where we separate the men from the boys in terms of model watchers compared to tropical meteorologists. You're going to have a whole new appreciation for guys like Avila by Friday.
Quoting 626. sar2401:

The GFS is not 100% wrong. The ECMWF has the storm turning back on itself. In less than 48 hours, we should have a clear idea of what Joaquin is going to do based on track. The models aren't going to be of any help now.

I'm with you, don't even look at models. If you've noticed all the moisture from the EPAC has been siphoned off to the CATL over the last 6 weeks or more, and all systems/disturbances have been forced East. The swirl off TX/LA was forced E, but just today started digging in and moving West... so a pattern/trend may have just been broken today. There might even be a loop in Joaquin's future to set him on a Wrn path. Agree we need two days to see what our synoptic card hand will be.
Quoting 620. georgevandenberghe:



This would be the infamous "Long Island Express" storm in 1938. It maintained intensity because it was moving VERY fast, about 60mph at landfall and traversed 60 miles of cold water south of LI in less than an hour. That's also how we got Hazel in 1954 to deliver a 91mph wind at DCA, still the station record, after traversing 300 miles of land in perhaps five hours so only time to decay from cat 4 to cat 2. And this setup is most common late in the season (October)

And quite a big difference with Joaquin, which should be a slow mover until a turn occurs. If it's able to stay moving mostly WSW, it can get into a low shear environment that's going to be a big problem for the Bahamas and Florida. Just a slight turn to the NNE puts it in a steering current that will move the storm up the coast. How far off the coast it stays when and if that happens is missing piece of the puzzle. For sure, by Friday at this time, we should know which outcome is really happening.



Quoting 636. sar2401:

And quite a big difference with Joaquin, which should be a slow mover until a turn occurs. If it's able to stay moving mostly WSW, it can get into a low shear environment that's going to be a big problem for the Bahamas and Florida.


Joaquin cannot continue moving WSW long enough to affect Florida; the longwave trough will bring south Florida dry air with dewpoints in the sixties this weekend.
Quoting 637. Proflaw:



Joaquin cannot continue moving WSW long enough to affect Florida; the longwave trough will bring south Florida dry air with dewpoints in the sixties this weekend.
Maybe, maybe not, this trough may not be as strong as the models predict. I mean look at how good the models have been this year, I sure hope their are still some old school forecasters with the NHC that don't rely mostly on the models and can use the old ways to predict the storms path.
639. Mikla
Quoting 638. NativeSun:

Maybe, maybe not, this trough may not be as strong as the models predict. I mean look at how good the models have been this year, I sure hope their are still some old school forecasters with the NHC that don't rely mostly on the models and can use the old ways to predict the storms path.
Quoting 638. NativeSun:

Maybe, maybe not, this trough may not be as strong as the models predict. I mean look at how good the models have been this year, I sure hope their are still some old school forecasters with the NHC that don't rely mostly on the models and can use the old ways to predict the storms path.


What old ways? If you look at the satellite images, you'll notice the flow over Florida from the southwest. If that's too newfangled, you could look out the window at the NHC center at FIU; thunderstorms developed over south Florida this afternoon and moved rapidly west into the Atlantic. What does that tell you about the strength and location of the trough? To quote my favorite songwriter/singer, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, and at steering levels, it clearly blows from the west southwest over Florida. Joaquin cannot continue west all the way to Florida. Count on it.
In all honesty what are the odds this trough doesn't pick Jaquan up and it slides into Florida I mean they have been wrong all year that would be insane
Quoting 640. Proflaw:



What old ways? If you look at the satellite images, you'll notice the flow over Florida from the southwest. If that's too newfangled, you could look out the window at the NHC center at FIU; thunderstorms developed over south Florida this afternoon and moved rapidly west into the Atlantic. What does that tell you about the strength and location of the trough? To quote my favorite songwriter/singer, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, and at steering levels, it clearly blows from the west southwest over Florida. Joaquin cannot continue west all the way to Florida. Count on it. Hi Pro, says who, if you think the directions of T Storms over South Florida dictate the way the storm will move you would never have hurricanes hitting South Florida from the East or Southeast. The steering winds are not the same.
Quoting 641. Austin72893:

In all honesty what are the odds this trough doesn't pick Jaquan up and it slides into Florida I mean they have been wrong all year that would be insane
At the moment, I'd put the odds of that happening at roughly 1 in 100,000. That is, the possibility is so remote that discussing it is silly. In a few days, Joaquin is going to get picked up and hauled quickly north; except for indirect effects--waves, winds--Florida is not in Joaquin's future.
Quoting 640. Proflaw:



What old ways? If you look at the satellite images, you'll notice the flow over Florida from the southwest. If that's too newfangled, you could look out the window at the NHC center at FIU; thunderstorms developed over south Florida this afternoon and moved rapidly west into the Atlantic. What does that tell you about the strength and location of the trough? To quote my favorite songwriter/singer, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, and at steering levels, it clearly blows from the west southwest over Florida. Joaquin cannot continue west all the way to Florida. Count on it.


I'd say between 76-77 west is the furthest it goes west prior to it being picked up. There should be little issue of it being picked up unless physics and meteorology decides to take a hike in the next five days.
Break, break,,is bahahurricane in the blog at the moment....?
The latest GSF and ECMWF models show the storm tracking 300 plus miles away from the east coast. Update your graphics and your reporting. Its a bust. Go back to regular programming covering "Global Warming" and the Fall colors!
The latest GSF and ECMWF models show the storm tracking 300 plus miles away from the east coast. Update your graphics and your reporting. Its a bust. Go back to regular programming covering "Global Warming" and the Fall colors!