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Tropical Storm Iselle Hits Hawaii's Big Island

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on August 08, 2014

Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. The Big Island's other tropical storm was an unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall. Iselle is just the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to make a direct hit on any Hawaiian Island since accurate records began in 1949. Iselle is bringing torrential rains to the Big Island, where a rain gauge near Pahala indicated rain rates at nearly 4 inches per hour. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for this area, and all of the Hawaiian Islands are under a Flash Flood Watch today. It is too early to assess what damage Iselle may have done, but the NWS reported roofs flying off and downed trees in Hawaiian Paradise Park, and at least 21,000 customers were without power early Friday morning on the Big Island. Some peak wind gusts and rainfall amounts on the Big Island so far from Iselle, as of 11 am EDT (5 am HST) Friday:

Hilo Airport: 32 mph gusting to 54 mph at 11 pm HST, 2.33" of rain
Kona Airport: 32 mph gusting to 45 mph at 1:53 pm HST
Bradshaw AFB: 23 mph gusting to 43 mph at 5 am HST, .23" of rain

The winds on top of the highest point in Hawaii, the Big Island's Mauna Kea, elevation 13,796' (4,205 m), gusted up to 72 mph this morning at the University of Hawaii 88" telescope.

Five stations on the windward side of the Big Island had received at least 10" of rain in 24 hours as of 5 am HST Friday, according the NWS Hawaii rainfall summary:

Hakalau: 10.70"
Pua Akala: 10.19"
Saddle Quarry: 11.39"
Glenwood: 10.63"
Kulani NWR: 11.19"


Figure 1. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar at 7:49 am EDT August 8, 2014 of Tropical Storm Iselle near landfall on the Big Island. The radar beam is being intercepted by the high mountains of Hawaii, and cannot "see" to the northwest.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from 23:15 UTC (7:15 pm EDT) August 7, 2014. At the time, the outer spiral bands of the 80 mph Category 1 hurricane were spreading over the Big Island of Hawaii. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Iselle
Friday morning satellite images showed that Iselle's thunderstorms continued to be very vigorous with cold cloud tops, but interaction with the high peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea had severely disrupted the circulation. The storm will have difficultly re-organizing once its center emerges over the ocean, since wind shear is a very high 25 - 30 knots, and water vapor satellite images are showing a lot of dry air on the west side of the Big Island. The shear and dry air should be enough to destroy Iselle by Saturday afternoon.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Julio from 19:30 UTC (3:30 pm EDT) August 7, 2014. At the time, Julio was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Julio expected to skirt Hawaii
Hurricane Julio intensified into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds overnight, becoming the fifth major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific so far in 2014. This is an inordinately high number of major hurricanes--usually, the Eastern Pacific has only three major hurricanes in an entire season, and just one by August 8. Though Julio had weakened to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds on Friday morning, satellite loops show that Julio still has an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and well-formed eye, though the cloud tops are warming, indicating weakening. The storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 26°C and maintain at least Category 1 status until Sunday morning. Fortunately, it is looking increasingly likely that Julio will not have a major impact on the Hawaiian Islands. The Friday morning runs of our top track models all predicted that the center of Julio would pass 100 - 300 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. On this path, Julio's core of heavy rains and wind would miss the islands, and high surf would be the main impact of the storm. The edge of Julio's cone of uncertainly for Sunday no longer lies over the islands.

Super Typhoon Genevieve not a threat to land
Farther west in the Pacific, what was formerly Hurricane Genevieve is now Super Typhoon Genevieve, after the storm crossed the International Date Line from east to west early Thursday. There is no difference between a North Pacific hurricane and a typhoon other than its location--if the storm is west of the Date Line, it is called a typhoon, and if it is east of the Date Line, it is called a hurricane. This only applies to storms in the Pacific in the Northern Hemisphere; in the Southern Hemisphere's Pacific Ocean, everything is called a Tropical Cyclone regardless of which side of the Date Line it falls on. Genevieve put on an amazing display of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 27 hours, from 09 UTC August 6 to 12 UTC August 7. Genevieve spent 24 hours as a Category 5 storm, before weakening slightly to a 150 mph Category 4 storm at 8 am EDT Friday. Satellite images still show an very impressive storm with a large eye surrounded by a giant area of intense eyewall thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. Fortunately, Genevieve is not expected to threaten any land areas.


Figure 4. Typhoon Halong as photographed and tweeted by astronaut Alexander Gerst at 4 pm EDT August 7, 2014. At the time, Halong was a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds.

Typhoon Halong drenching Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 8 am EDT Friday, and was spreading heavy rains into Southern Japan. Satellite loops show that Halong is a very large system. Halong is moving north at just 5 mph, and will bring Southern Japan an extended period of heavy rain today through Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters
Iselle at 4pm
Iselle at 4pm
Looking north toward Hilo
Hurricane Iselle 4
Hurricane Iselle 4
Looking north toward Hilo around 2pm

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You Dr. Masters.
Since this mornings U.S. airstrikes in Iraq, Tropical Storm Iselle making landall in Hawaii has been dropped from the World News.

The tropical storm was their big story, but how quickly they move on to something else when something more news worthy comes along.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
anyone have the long range CFS model? just curious if it shows any CV development
Thanks Dr. Masters !
Thank You Dr. Masters. u are the best
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
anyone have the long range CFS model? just curious if it shows any CV development

Link
Quoting 5. JRRP:






I saw some winds in yellow up to 25 mph!
Thank You Dr.  In light of the flooding problems for Hawaii and the mountainous terrain, hopefully Julio will not add to the mess.

While the Atlantic is quiet, just noting that there is a little bit of lower lever vorticity with the wave SE of PR and a little concentrated "spot" of convection just fired right at the cross-hairs at 15N-65W; interesting to see if this will persist over the next 24 hours:
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Rainy day for the Lesser Antilles.
So what's this possible spin up in the N. Caribbean?
Based on the radar presentation during the early morning hours I believe the worst conditions and highest rainfall numbers will come from the National Park Area.


Wiki
Quoting opal92nwf:
So what's this possible spin up in the N. Caribbean?


12Z NAM at 84 hours, NAM has been showing this system for the past 3 days. Now it has it all the way in the Western Caribbean in 84 hours.
Do you think Iselle's convection is literally being held back by the massive mountain while the low level circulation haplessly swirls into hostile sheer and dry air on the other side?

I'd hazard a guess that she'll be done as a tropical entity by day's end if this keeps up.
I knew it wouldn't be to long that I made a comment that Doc would come to make a new blog.
Quoting 8. JRRP:


Link
thanks. still shows late august activity picking up
Quoting 19. hurricanes2018:


its coming soon in green!
21. JRRP
Quoting hurricanes2018:


I saw some winds in yellow up to 25 mph!

nice...
Here it comes. Big question will it survive once it gets its feet wet? Still have the stable airmass and cool sst to deal with.

Quoting 20. hurricanes2018:

its coming soon in green!

Yes it's all about the mjo. We know the rising motion associated with it will make thunderstorms active basin wide. This is when systems will pop up.
24. JRRP


Thank you Dr Masters

Low of 59 this morning......Already 77........seems it will be getting warmer than the last several days today. My new A/C is on it!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 08 Aug 9:13 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 08 Aug 9:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 Aug 9:00 am PDT 77 43 30 E 3G06 OK
Quoting 19. hurricanes2018:




Euro forecast not quite as favorable MJO wise.


Quoting LostTomorrows:
Do you think Iselle's convection is literally being held back by the massive mountain while the low level circulation haplessly swirls into hostile sheer and dry air on the other side?

I'd hazard a guess that she'll be done as a tropical entity by day's end if this keeps up.


Yes, the LLC of Iselle is about to exit the southern part of the Island while the onshore flow is keeping the convection going on the east side of the Island.

This radar page has some radars that show the LLC of Iselle heading back into the Pacific Ocean.
http://hokukea.soest.hawaii.edu/radar/
With rain rates that they're giving at up to 4 inches per hour, and a lot of open terrain due to volcanic activity, I bet that there will be a lot of land moving downstream. The good news is that people don't live there, but it will be a terrain-shaping event.

Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:

Based on the radar presentation during the early morning hours I believe the worst conditions and highest rainfall numbers will come from the National Park Area.


Wiki
Looks like it will have some good spin to it.



Quoting 20. hurricanes2018:

its coming soon in green!
That should also help kick start the Cape Verde Season. I would suspect once the Pacific quiets down a bit, activity will pick up again in the Atlantic as upward motion and air converges over the mdr. Trade winds beginning to slow down and wind shear has also come down in the Caribbean.
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:

Based on the radar presentation during the early morning hours I believe the worst conditions and highest rainfall numbers will come from the National Park Area.


Wiki


I would agree....Last night I was seeing enhanced lines of convection due to orographic lifting and a especially strong line by Kilauea Volcano
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Do you think Iselle's convection is literally being held back by the massive mountain while the low level circulation haplessly swirls into hostile sheer and dry air on the other side?

I'd hazard a guess that she'll be done as a tropical entity by day's end if this keeps up.
I think that's exactly what's happening. It's not a strong enough storm to punch its way over the mountains and it's too small a storm to work its way around the mountains. It's turning into more of an orographic storm now and is losing tropical storm characteristics as I write. Ironically, the rain and clouds will be able to make progress toward the other islands as it weakens. I don't think the models saw this possibility. If Iselle had moved on past Hawaii at 17 knots, the impacts would have been minimal. With the main center of convection sitting there, more rain will fall on the mountains and other orographically favored valleys to the west of Hilo. The rainfall totals will probably be larger with a weak storm than if it had remained stronger. The only good aspect so far is that most of the heaviest rain is still staying offshore.
Quoting 22. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here it comes. Big question will it survive once it gets its feet wet? Still have the stable airmass and cool sst to deal with.


I'll say that it won't ;)
Radar indicates the circulation is now west of the big island.

Quoting 24. JRRP:




Drought buster
35. 7544
hmmm a spin in the bahamas ?
All I want is one good cape verde storm to track.2010 was like eye candy.
Quoting 35. 7544:

hmmm a spin in the bahamas ?
TUTT?
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks doc. Busy days with the E- and CPac.


Iselle's eye crushing into Hawaii's Big Island.
Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

All I want is one good cape verde storm to track.2010 was like eye candy.
I don't really mind the lack of activity as it was expected because what goes around comes back around. When the hurricane season generally is quiet the winter will make up for it, and then when we have an active hurricane season, the winters are slightly average or below normal, take 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 as an good example, although 2010-2011 was quite decent though, with the Jan 27, 2011 Snowstorm with thundersnow
Quoting 21. JRRP:


nice...


looks like nothin'.
WHAT IS GOING ON 35 WEST !!!
Quoting 44. hurricanes2018:

WHAT IS GOING ON 35 WEST !!!


nothing on visible looks promising at 35W. Looks like shear to me.
Quoting 41. Climate175:

I don't really mind the lack of activity as it was expected because what goes around comes back around. When the hurricane season generally is quiet the winter will make up for it, and then when we have an active hurricane season, the winters are slightly average or below normal, take 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 as an good example, although 2010-2011 was quite decent though, with the Jan 27, 2011 Snowstorm with thundersnow
95-96 was different.You probably weren't born but the 1995 hurricane season was active and the 95-96 winter was one of the best.Then the 1996 hurricane season was active.I haven't seen that since.
Tropical Storm Iselle Hits Hawaii's Big Island. All the hype with this so called storm is embarrassing. I have seen better thunderstorms than this. I'm sorry but it's shameful that the weather community has come down too this.

I have been through major hurricanes in my life Camille for a example 1969, Tornadoes April 2011 and snow storms like the blizzard of 1966. How did we survive many did not. But to glorify a weak storm hitting Hawaii like TWC has been is just disgusting. If I'm out of line well bring it on.


way to much sal right now for any tropical wave.. all this sal will dry up any tropical wave right now!
Possible intensification now that Iselle is back over water?
thanxs for posting a map of the big island. it does not look like much to hike from kilauea visitor center to the summit of mauna loa. but it was a gnarly hike. it was S turn after S turn up that volcano. lucky i had good boots the lava even on the worn down trail was sharp. i carried my backpack and those heavy boots all the way up. oh yeah the long underwear too. picture of a hawaiian snowman is on my photos section. i also hiked the na pale trail twice on the island of kauai. great adventures back in the 80s nice day
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Radar indicates the circulation is now west of the big island.

I been watching that also. Hard to tell if Iselle's llc might've slid south of Mauna Loa and is already back into the sea headed NW. Latest CPHC discussion expects Iselle's llc will be back over water by noon HST.
Quoting 46. washingtonian115:

95-96 was different.You probably weren't born but the 1995 hurricane season was active and the 95-96 winter was one of the best.Then the 1996 hurricane season was active.I haven't seen that since.


Oh do I remember. A 3 year old and an infant, and constant basement flooding. First from the hurricane remnants, then from the snow/ice melt, then from the noreasters, it just went on and on and on...
Quoting 46. washingtonian115:

95-96 was different.You probably weren't born but the 1995 hurricane season was active and the 95-96 winter was one of the best.Then the 1996 hurricane season was active.I haven't seen that since.
?

Iselle may reveal her nightly secrets to daylight rgb-loop now.
Quoting 52. nonblanche:



Oh do I remember. A 3 year old and an infant, and constant basement flooding. First from the hurricane remnants, then from the snow/ice melt, then from the noreasters, it just went on and on and on...
A huge sink hole opened up in my yard back in the spring of 96.It was a sight to see.The hurricanes didn't help that year either..

What year were you born then Climate?.
I don't mean to come off negative, but even Dr. Masters said nothing in the Atlantic or Caribbean is evident or threatening.
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

A huge sink hole opened up in my yard back in the spring of 96.It was a sight to see.The hurricanes didn't help that year either..

What year were you born then Climate?.
Expect a WU Mail Shortly.
Quoting 57. FOREX:

I don't mean to come off negative, but even Dr. Masters said nothing in the Atlantic or Caribbean is evident or threatening.


I will be doing my first comprehensive blog today on that.
24-hour reports from CoCoRaHS observers this morning (07:00 HST, 12:00 CDT) are starting to come in.

www.cocorahs.org


Fun fact of the day.

4-day U.S. record of 62.00" at Kukaiau, Big Island, Hawaii from 2/27 - 3/2/1902

http://coolweather.net/staterainfall/hawaii.htm
TWC just showed that it's 37 degrees on the summit of the volcano.
Not quite cold enough to see the white stuff, but close.
Quoting 58. Climate175:

Expect a WU Mail Shortly.
Nevermind.
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ugh.






TA why are we supposed to get so much rain?
Not suggesting that the wave SE of PR is a candidate for development at the moment but just noting that it appears to be pretty healthy and is self-sustaining convection and bringing much needed rain to the area..  As there is no strong ULL/Tutt cell close to it at the moment to enhance convection (250 mb level below) it's generating that convection on it's own :


Quoting 64. K8eCane:





TA why are we supposed to get so much rain?




There were a bunch of flash flood warnings yesterday around Jackson, TN, and I suspect there will be more today, stretching eastward as well.
Quoting K8eCane:




TA why are we supposed to get so much rain?
Quoting K8eCane:




TA why are we supposed to get so much rain?


fronts moving from the west to the east
Quoting 54. barbamz:




Cool, it looks like it is "splashing" up against the island.
Definitely a legit wave moving through the area.
Iselle makes a Hawaiian landfall on the south central big island! With all the rainfall that has already fallen around the volcanoes, near Kilauea, it must be steaming!!!
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Iselle makes Hawaiian landfall! With all the rainfall that has already fallen around the volcanoes near Kilauea, it must be steaming!!!


I'm glad Catore clarified the flash flooding video they've been showing.
The other meteorologist kept calling it storm surge? The last time I checked storm surge doesn't come down from the hills and look like mud.
Quoting 48. hurricanes2018:



way to much sal right now for any tropical wave.. all this sal will dry up any tropical wave right now!
Hmm
Quoting frank727:
Tropical Storm Iselle Hits Hawaii's Big Island. All the hype with this so called storm is embarrassing. I have seen better thunderstorms than this. I'm sorry but it's shameful that the weather community has come down too this.

I have been through major hurricanes in my life Camille for a example 1969, Tornadoes April 2011 and snow storms like the blizzard of 1966. How did we survive many did not. But to glorify a weak storm hitting Hawaii like TWC has been is just disgusting. If I'm out of line well bring it on.


I'm sorry, but how is this a reflection of the weather community? Iselle was a hurricane yesterday based off recon that quickly weakened right before it made landfall, again based off recon data. It happens. Just a few days ago Iselle was a Category 4 hurricane. The hype is no different than what we saw for Flossie in 2007. And if you think this is hype, you should check out the weather community when there's a storm threatening the United States from the Atlantic side.
shear is low but SAL is high and ssts are low. 2/3 = negative. if only that SAL would retreat....
Quoting 74. wunderweatherman123:

shear is low but SAL is high and ssts are low. 2/3 = negative. if only that SAL would retreat....
Dry air is probably the most important factor in the atlantic.
I'm getting stronger gusts from this wave than what I got from Bertha.
Quoting 76. WeatherNerdPR:

I'm getting stronger gusts from this wave than what I got from Bertha.

And more rain
Quoting 57. FOREX:

I don't mean to come off negative, but even Dr. Masters said nothing in the Atlantic or Caribbean is evident or threatening.
Give it another week and the wishcasters will be blogging away over model scenarios.
Hello bloggers,
At least for me the impact of Iselle to the big Hawaii island is nothing as extraordinary as expected (best for the Hawaiians!!) .
Still copious amounts of rain falling as iselle's eye is back over water.
In spite the models "thinking" of no tropical development in the next 5 days the present tropical wave near PR is a promising candidate for development later in its journey to the west Caribbean sea. Also, I expect more action soon in the east Atlantic.
82. JRRP
...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER CURRENTLY DOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

Quoting 65. weathermanwannabe:

Not suggesting that the wave SE of PR is a candidate for development at the moment but just noting that it appears to be pretty healthy and is self-sustaining convection and bringing much needed rain to the area..  As there is no strong ULL/Tutt cell close to it at the moment to enhance convection (250 mb level below) it's generating that convection on it's own :





It is. Must have a lot of energy in it. That wave was vigorous well before it entered the Caribbean. It had large busts of convective activity a number of times. Once it gets past 70W, I would keep an eye on it.



I made my first weather blog in a long time. If any of you laugh at it, I'll give your name to Taz!

Arctic Ocean. State of the ice cap with a month left to melt.



I see a nice spin on land on African coast!! do you see it!!
Iselle was definitely overhyped by the media. It's still a fairly significant event just for having a landfall on the Big Island, but they can handle it, even in Hawaii. Their day for a big one will come eventually though. Meanwhile, a much more significant tropical impact is underway in Japan as Halong slowly heads for the coast. Winds are about 85mph, and shouldn't come down much if any before landfall. It's a much larger storm than Iselle also.

Quoting K8eCane:




TA why are we supposed to get so much rain?

Several waves of low pressure along a quasi-stationary front.
Quoting 54. barbamz:


Iselle may reveal her nightly secrets to daylight rgb-loop now.


The new apparent low level center may be a lee side low that formed downstream of the big volcanoes, not the actual original center of Iselle.
Zoomed in view of the exact North Pole from MODIS satellite image today.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Give it another week and the wishcasters will be blogging away over model scenarios.


I miss when the GFS was developing a system on every run back in June.
That's what we need now but for real.
Can I mention that I have ant piles all over my yard..
Looks like a little bit of turning in the mid levels in the NW Caribbean. To my untrained eyes anyways :p

Link
Quoting ncstorm:
Can I mention that I have ant piles all over my yard..

I've never seen ant piles so huge.
I miss the 1) real tropical waves that entered the Gulf, that would bring rain mainly after the axis moved inland and 2) the non-tropical origin disturbances that rotate under the sub-tropical high, and sort of act like a tropical wave, although with a lesser surface reflection.

Haven't had that at all this Summer, and the 10 to 20% afternoon sea breeze storms are missing my yard more than 80 to 90% of the time...
Quoting 84. Grothar:

I made my first weather blog in a long time. If any of you laugh at it, I'll give your name to Taz!




You're no Levi, but I will give it a plus.
Quoting 84. Grothar:

I made my first weather blog in a long time. If any of you laugh at it, I'll give your name to Taz!


REPORTED!!!!!!!! LOL
The wave South of Puerto Rico doesn't look half bad on the TPW product. Shear isn't fatal, but the accelerating low level flow in the Eastern Caribbean tends to rob waves of low level convergence. No apparent model support.

Quoting 87. MAweatherboy1:

Iselle was definitely overhyped by the media. It's still a fairly significant event just for having a landfall on the Big Island, but they can handle it, even in Hawaii. Their day for a big one will come eventually though. Meanwhile, a much more significant tropical impact is underway in Japan as Halong slowly heads for the coast. Winds are about 85mph, and shouldn't come down much if any before landfall. It's a much larger storm than Iselle also.




While I agree with you that it wasn't quite the storm that it could have been and I personally did not foresee a huge impact, I wouldn't say that it was over hyped. To be honest, no one had ever been in this situation with a hurricane approaching as Iselle had done, so that in itself would warrant attention. Plus, with Hawaii not having had a storm in 22 years, i think that the proper course of action was to remind people of the potential impacts.

Additionally, had Iselle not been significantly sheared in the final hours before landfall, her rainfall threat could have been much more significant than the 10-12 inches reported thus far. Not to mention the few incomplete reports of wind damage that Dr. Masters mentioned. Obviously im not on the island, but all-in-all, I'd say she got just the right amount of coverage.
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

Hmm



What a great image of the SAL. thank you. Unfortunate that it dries everything up and makes for a lacking environment for ts formation, because it is cool to see.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
I miss the 1) real tropical waves that entered the Gulf, that would bring rain mainly after the axis moved inland and 2) the non-tropical origin disturbances that rotate under the sub-tropical high, and sort of act like a tropical wave, although with a lesser surface reflection.

Haven't had that at all this Summer, and the 10 to 20% afternoon sea breeze storms are missing my yard more than 80 to 90% of the time...
Yeah, we're dying here in Alabama without seeing any type of low pressure system in the Gulf. These cold fronts that have been coming down from the north have been no help in terms of rain. It used to be we could count on a couple non-tropical lows in the Gulf per summer to help spark some general rain but not lately. There are a fair number of scattered thunderstorms in the western half of south AL but none in the east, so the 20-40% chance of rain means nothing unless you're lucky enough to be under one. It's 97 with a dewpoint of 72, so you'd think two birds flying by would be enough to set off a storm. :-)
Quoting 92. ncstorm:

Can I mention that I have ant piles all over my yard..


LOL i do too and i have never had the problem with little roly poly thingys that i have this summer



here the tropical wave at 35 west!




Quoting 51. Barefootontherocks:

I been watching that also. Hard to tell if Iselle's llc might've slid south of Mauna Loa and is already back into the sea headed NW. Latest CPHC discussion expects Iselle's llc will be back over water by noon HST.
as Iselle inched closer last night. Her winds were going around the big island from the the northeast. As the winds went around, an eddy formed to the west of the big island and because thr winds were pretty strong, 40-50+ (due to acceleration between Maui and the big island). I believe barbz(sp? Sorry) posted a graphic showing two areas of spin, one being the actually llc of Iselle to the east and 1 area of spin to the west. As the storm collided into the big island and tried to move through, thr the spin/eddy to the west became the new low level center for Iselle. This is my thinking at least as yesterday 12z wrf-awr run showed this happening also. Doctor m posted the link to this model run in his posted yesterday at the very end.
Quoting 92. ncstorm:

Can I mention that I have ant piles all over my yard..


We only have one.

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Looks like a little bit of turning in the mid levels in the NW Caribbean. To my untrained eyes anyways :p

Link
Nothing at the surface but it looks like a TUTT to me. There are at least two more, one by the west coast of Cuba and the other in the southern Bahamas. None of them look threatening right now.

Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I miss when the GFS was developing a system on every run back in June.
That's what we need now but for real.
Page WKC. He's the man to sniff out systems in the Caribbean. :-)
Quoting Grothar:
I made my first weather blog in a long time. If any of you laugh at it, I'll give your name to Taz!

You have a lot of pretty pictures.... :-)
Just wanted to point out that while Iselle is only the second tropical storm to hit the big island, she is the first tropical storm to cross the island. The 1958 storm weakened to a 30mph depression upon landfall. Iselle joins Dot and Iniki as the only systems to cross over any of the islands as storms.


Link
Quoting 108. sar2401:

You have a lot of pretty pictures.... :-)


Yes, I do. And just think, these are the ones I can show.
Quoting juracanpr1:
In spite the models "thinking" of no tropical development in the next 5 days the present tropical wave near PR is a promising candidate for development later in its journey to the west Caribbean sea. Also, I expect more action soon in the east Atlantic.
As Grothar wrote in his blog, it climatologically expected to get development in the Caribbean and, to a lesser degree, the MDR, in August. It really doesn't matter what the models think since they aren't likely to pick up cyclogenesis in the Caribbean much more than five days out. It's just a matter of keeping an eye on what starts to show up and see if the NHC picks up any of it in their discussion.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm getting stronger gusts from this wave than what I got from Bertha.
That's because Bertha was really just a weak tropical wave when it hit. :-)
Weather prediction is still dicey. Iselle did not track as forecast, but veered south. The leeward side was supposed to get high winds and heavy rain. No rain at all, and max wind was 45mph, not even the yearly high.

I hope someone takes a look at forecast model vs. actual and tries to make sense of why the forecast track was so wrong.
Well Hawaii sure ripped Iselle to shreds over night

Not to be Debby Downer, but usually an active Atlantic means a slow Pacific (and I can think of reasons for that) and vice versa, and the East/Central Pacific has been over the top.

Heard somewhere a week or so ago the MDR SST was the lowest since the beginning of the warm AMO, and although the Mother of All Ninos looks more like the second cousin of all Ninos, think of years like 1983 with 4 named storms, total. That was a combined Nino and cold AMO season.

It looks like an anti-cyclone has developed within the region of the wave in the Caribbean (click to enlarge):


Quoting 47. frank727:

Tropical Storm Iselle Hits Hawaii's Big Island. All the hype with this so called storm is embarrassing. I have seen better thunderstorms than this. I'm sorry but it's shameful that the weather community has come down too this.

I have been through major hurricanes in my life Camille for a example 1969, Tornadoes April 2011 and snow storms like the blizzard of 1966. How did we survive many did not. But to glorify a weak storm hitting Hawaii like TWC has been is just disgusting. If I'm out of line well bring it on.

Which thunderstorm can you name?
wow..the potential east coast storm is doing a loop on the 12z NCEP Ensembles

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Well Hawaii sure ripped Iselle to shreds over night



It's like the Hispaniola of the Caribbean.
Decent vort on the wave at the lowest level (850); a little vort starting to show up at the 700mb level, and nothing working up to the 500mb level.  Just a typical squally wave at the moment but something worth keeping an eye on if persistent convection continues to fire on the way to the Western Caribbean where really warm sst's await along with some distance from the SAL.......As I mentioned earlier, Levi noted yesterday that this one was worth keeping an eye on as it headed towards the Bay of Campeche later in the period:




Quoting 118. ncstorm:

wow..the potential east coast storm is doing a loop on the 12z NCEP Ensembles




If it does form into a subtropical or fully tropical system most of the models don't have it becoming anything more than a brief tropical storm. Looks like a lot of rain though!
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Not to be Debby Downer, but usually an active Atlantic means a slow Pacific (and I can think of reasons for that) and vice versa, and the East/Central Pacific has been over the top.

Heard somewhere a week or so ago the MDR SST was the lowest since the beginning of the warm AMO, and although the Mother of All Ninos looks more like the second cousin of all Ninos, think of years like 1983 with 4 named storms, total. That was a combined Nino and cold AMO season.

I'm more concerned that July was the driest month (in terms of RH) of any July on record in the MDR. Storms can survive lower than average SST's. They can survive moderate shear. Storms that start out weak due to those two factors that also have to fight off dry air intrusions are doomed. At this point we need a huge tropical wave - or maybe a couple of them - to moisten up the atmosphere from Africa to the Caribbean. Dry air is never given the weight it should have when it comes to either aiding or impeding storm intensification.
Quoting 85. wxmod:

Arctic Ocean. State of the ice cap with a month left to melt.




That picture made me thirsty for a slushy in a non-biodegradeable cup.
18z NAM (9 hours)
18Z NAM at 21 hours
Quoting 108. sar2401:

You have a lot of pretty pictures.... :-)


When DOESN'T he? If there were none i'd say someone call a doctor for Grothar.
carib. wave im thinking a "yellow with a 0%" is in the cards because there is no model support
This should be 94L...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This should be 94L...



NAM at 39 hours
132. 7544
Quoting 130. Stormchaser2007:

This should be 94L...




agree
Quoting 130. Stormchaser2007:

This should be 94L...


NHC could mention it soon.
Wave in 42 hours.
Quoting 130. Stormchaser2007:

This should be 94L...




Certainly looking good for now. It'll be interesting to see what it does tonight because it's nearing the peak of Dmin and generating a good amount of thunderstorms still. Not to mention there's some quite high TCHP for it to use as it goes west:

Afternoon all.

Would you believe I missed the entire landfall of Iselle because my internet was on the fritz? As you can imagine, I was VERY unhappy with my ISP....

Going to read back now, but I have to say I am relieved to have access to the blog again....
Quoting 130. Stormchaser2007:

This should be 94L...




I'll see what I can do.

Nasty storms just to my east here in S. Fort Myers. Dog's in the closet. Gust front is blasting though the neighborhood outside my window.
The wave at 63 hours.
18z NAM at 66 hours
Yes, we're down to a 65% chance of an El Nino this Fall. BUT 1994, 2004/ and 2006 all featured the same lull around this time so there's no need to proclaim El Nino's dead!
144. FOREX
Quoting 129. Climate175:




Looks like it is heading for the DR death zone. your opinion?
The wave at 69 hrs.
Quoting 144. FOREX:



Looks like it is heading for the DR death zone. your opinion?
NAM thinks it will gain convection once it heads in the Bay of Honduras and maintain the cruise through the Caribbean.
Quoting 119. Sfloridacat5:



It's like the Hispaniola of the Caribbean.
the wind shear it helping it out to
148. FOREX
Quoting 146. Climate175:

NAM thinks it will gain convection once it heads in the Bay of Honduras and maintain the cruise through the Caribbean.
I hope it doesn't crash into the Yucatan. We could use the rain here in the panhandle.
Quoting 142. weatherbro:

Yes, we're down to a 65% chance of an El Nino this Fall. BUT 1994, 2004/ and 2006 all featured the same lull around this time so there's no need to proclaim El Nino's dead!
While that is true, strong winds aloft have weaken and have allowed for waves such as the one south of PR to move into the Caribbean and continue west without being sheared apart. It also appears the TUTT has re-positioned further north.
Quoting 129. Climate175:




something to watch that area isnt in bad conditions of developing if it mantains and heads west it might become a ts or td



update!! nice tropical wave with more rain to it at 30west and nice tropical wave back of 30 west to with more rain with it and a spin to!
The NHC isn't going to jump over every little wave that fires convection.It needs to sustain it's self first before anything is proclaimed.
NAM just takes the wave into the Yucatan. I would have like to see what this wave would do in the GOM, but it doesn't look to be moving in that direction.

It's still 4 days out from moving into the Yucatan so things could change quite a bit. I would have liked to have seen what this wave would do in the Southern GOM or BOC.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Decent vort on the wave at the lowest level (850); a little vort starting to show up at the 700mb level, and nothing working up to the 500mb level.  Just a typical squally wave at the moment but something worth keeping an eye on if persistent convection continues to fire on the way to the Western Caribbean where really warm sst's await along with some distance from the SAL.......As I mentioned earlier, Levi noted yesterday that this one was worth keeping an eye on as it headed towards the Bay of Campeche later in the period:






Actually the lowest is 925 and vort is good there plus sfc obs do indicate a strong wave maybe some surface rotation
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

The NHC isn't going to jump over every little wave that fires convection.It needs to sustain it's self first before anything is proclaimed.


I agree, probably tomorrow it gets mentioned in my opinion if it sustains enough convection. It has decent 850mb vorticity associated with it right now and extends to 700mb.
Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:

Nasty storms just to my east here in S. Fort Myers. Dog's in the closet. Gust front is blasting though the neighborhood outside my window.


Nasty looking storm that area has been active for thunderstorms this afternoon
Quoting 154. wunderkidcayman:



Actually the lowest is 925 and vort is good there plus sfc obs do indicate a strong wave maybe some surface rotation


Latest satellite imagery of the Caribbean Sea suggests low level turning beginning to develop with our Caribbean Sea wave.
Not gonna lie but the tropical wave affecting Puerto Rico right now doesn't look that much different than Bertha was when it affected that area. Lol, yes, that's an insult to Bertha. ;)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This should be 94L...


It should have been tagged 94L from early this morning
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

The NHC isn't going to jump over every little wave that fires convection.It needs to sustain it's self first before anything is proclaimed.
Especially if it is Stewart.
Quoting Grothar:


We only have one.



I'm waiting for fire ants to appear in the DC metro area. Winters like last one may make it a longer wait.

So far we have none.
162. 7544
Quoting 153. Sfloridacat5:

NAM just takes the wave into the Yucatan. I would have like to see what this wave would do in the GOM, but it doesn't look to be moving in that direction.

It's still 4 days out from moving into the Yucatan so things could change quite a bit. I would have liked to have seen what this wave would do in the Southern GOM or BOC.


looks like its moving wnw so far ?
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Latest satellite imagery of the Caribbean Sea suggests low level turning beginning to develop with our Caribbean Sea wave.

With everything else suggesting it I'd agree

Quoting Thrawst:
Not gonna lie but the tropical wave affecting Puerto Rico right now doesn't look that much different than Bertha was when it affected that area. Lol, yes, that's an insult to Bertha. ;)

Which means that it's better than Bertha
Quoting 7544:


looks like its moving wnw so far ?

W with a little jog WNW at the early part of the loop
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

The NHC isn't going to jump over every little wave that fires convection.It needs to sustain it's self first before anything is proclaimed.


I think the main reason the NHC hasn't said anything is more to do with model support. So far it's just the NAM that is showing it potentially doing anything. If the GFS, UKmet or ECMWF were showing it, they would have likely added a little area of yellow. Will be interesting to see if any of the other models pick it up in the coming days.
Hottest temperature ever recorded: Fort Yukon, northeastern Alaska, 6/27/1915, 100 F Link

Officially, the lowest temperature recorded in Brazil was in Caçador town, at the same state, in June 1952, and it was -14°C. Link


Road to Church Hill in snow.
Brazil, August 2010.
Photo: Courtesy of the photographer Evandro Badin.
Quoting 7544:


looks like its moving wnw so far ?



The NAM has it moving on a general W/WNW path crashing it into the Yucatan.

We'll have to see what the GFS thinks once it picks up the wave.

The 12z GFS is a mess and just shows generalized showers moving though the islands, but nothing organized at all like the NAM.

I'll be interested to see if the GFS picks up the wave in a more organized fashion.

Julio's looking more ragged, but firing an impressive burst of convection in the last few frames.

watching


WNW right through the Yucatan Channel







AFRICAN COAST big spin and everything going up fast %%%%

Local news just said Hawaii is bracing itself for its second hurricane.
Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:




The NAM has it moving on a general W/WNW path crashing it into the Yucatan.

We'll have to see what the GFS thinks once it picks up the wave.

The 12z GFS is a mess and just shows generalized showers moving though the islands, but nothing organized at all like the NAM.

I'll be interested to see if the GFS picks up the wave in a more organized fashion.


If it gets more stronger then it will move more poleward because of the beta drift, but if it stays weak it will crash into the Yucatan. Right now there is a distinct weakness in the GOM to pull it north.
See Yall on Monday and everyone enjoy your weekend and the Caribbean "watch".................................... :)
Quoting 161. georgevandenberghe:



I'm waiting for fire ants to appear in the DC metro area. Winters like last one may make it a longer wait.

So far we have none.


They are not fun. And boy do they hurt.
Neither the 0Z or 6Z runs of the 15 km FIM do anything with Caribbean wave, as an FYI. NAM ranks fairly low among the hierarchy of tropical genesis models. 15 km is pretty decent resolution.
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:

Local news just said Hawaii is bracing itself for its second hurricane.
Lol.Julio may barely scrape Hawaii.What?
Quoting 176. stormpetrol:



WNW right through the Yucatan Channel


Accelerating low level flow tends to reduce/eliminate convergence, besides the lack of reliable model support, it would need to reach the Western Caribbean to be in an area of low level convergence.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD200 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Terry
NNNN

Huh pretty neat...
Blob declaration imminent.

....Grothar

Quoting 174. hurricanes2018:

watching
If it comes to Honduras I will be happy. We need the rain asap.
Quoting 181. Grothar:



They are not fun. And boy do they hurt.


I saw a calf killer yesterday. I can report that it did not kill any calves.


one word for this!!!! DOOM!!!
Steering currents WNW in the Caribbean

IntelliGeoff activated for possible Gro-blob declaration.

Wind shear is low



Tendency is to drop



Very weak vorticity

Quoting 191. GeoffreyWPB:

IntelliGeoff activated for possible Gro-blob declaration.




Reset for closer view. I know you can do it Dave!
Quoting 188. Astrometeor:



I saw a calf killer yesterday. I can report that it did not kill any calves.


Are you pulling my leg??
Quoting 192. Grothar:

Wind shear is low



Tendency is to drop



Very weak vorticity




Vorticity is a little stronger than weak, I'd say moderate.
Quoting 194. Grothar:



Are you pulling my leg??


Don't do that. It will come off! :)
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND HEAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...DEPENDING ON IF YOU
BELIEVE THE FASTER ECMWF OR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THE FRONT WILL BE
STALLING RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM AREAL
ENHANCEMENT. DOES NOT APPEAR SVR WX WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WETBULB HT
14KFT AND ABOVE AS WELL AS VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE

excerpt from 340 pm New Orleans Discussion


Finally some "weather"
Quoting 199. GeoffreyWPB:




If anything develops at the surface, it will develop underneath the convection.
Rain :-)

Quoting 203. CaribBoy:

Rain :-)




Happy for you! How much?
Things Look like there changing from Caribbean westward, could see a home growner stir up, especially in the Caribbean.


We had some very heavy rain off and on since 12 noon yesterday, what a relief !
Quoting 195. TheDawnAwakening:



Vorticity is a little stronger than weak, I'd say moderate.


If I had said moderate, someone would have said weak. If I said strong, someone would have said weak. So we will go with moderate and let the others fight it out.

Now for the color. I say it is lime yellow. Do you think it is more orange yellow? :):):)
Quoting 205. SunnyDaysFla:



Happy for you! How much?


About one inch for today. That's not much, but still welcome!
Quoting 208. Grothar:



If I had said moderate, someone would have said weak. If I said strong, someone would have weak. So we will go with moderate and let the others fight it out.

Now for the color. I say it is lime yellow. Do you think it is more orange yellow? :):):)


I think it is more yellow than anything else
Quoting 208. Grothar:



If I had said moderate, someone would have said weak. If I said strong, someone would have weak. So we will go with moderate and let the others fight it out.

Now for the color. I say it is lime yellow. Do you think it is more orange yellow? :):):)


I choose yellow gold.
Quoting 91. Sfloridacat5:



I miss when the GFS was developing a system on every run back in June.
That's what we need now but for real.
This might be the year that it makes up for the lack of US major hurricane landfalls. Time will tell.
Now that Aug is here... the weather is "supposed" to become increasingly wetter...

EAST CARIB SEA BUOY EAST WINDS 10-15Kts PRESSURE 29.93 AND FALLING - Dabuh.com
Interesting feature:

Large extratropical low (1003mb) over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. . . . you can see a large trail of smoke from this week's Pacific wildfires being drawn into the system. The plume, between roughly 22-24k feet extends across Ontario/Michigan/Eastern Great Lakes/New York/Mid Atlantic States/Northwest Atlantic into Newfoundland.


Shear is not that bad a sst are great..But that dry air is a killer and if it doesn't gain latitude it's going to crash into land soon in a few days.If it wants to get together it better do it sooner than later..
Quoting 203. CaribBoy:

Rain :-)


Im sure your dancing in the streets we got some rain here today to in St.thomas not sure how much but its welcomed
AOI below PR is no doubt moving too fast also. Slow down baby.


Quoting 218. junie1:

Im sure your dancing in the streets we got some rain here today to in St.thomas not sure how much but its welcomed


The rain is always welcomed here :) Without blocking mountains things dry out very quickly.
i think the 2014 Hurricane Season is going to be very close to near normal despite the forecasts, my take is 12-7-3, plenty generous, but what the heck!
The Atlantic is sleeping.

The Pacific is burning.
The wave has fired new convection.
Quoting 222. pie314271:

The Atlantic is sleeping.

The Pacific is burning.
The Atlantic "switch" will turn on soon. (Soon meaning 1-3 weeks)
Quoting 216. HurrikanEB:
Interesting feature:

Large extratropical low (1003mb) over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. . . . you can see a large trail of smoke from this week's Pacific wildfires being drawn into the system. The plume, between roughly 22-24k feet extends across Ontario/Michigan/Eastern Great Lakes/New York/Mid Atlantic States/Northwest Atlantic into Newfoundland.


Hence the dark red sunrises and sunsets in my area.
Convection according to satellite imagery of ADDS, indicates that in the last two images on IR, the convection is starting to rotate counter clockwise, right where the highest vorticity is located in the lowest 2500 feet of the atmosphere. Wind shear is low 5-10 knots, strong divergent upper level anticyclonic outflow present. Dry air is no longer an issue in the convective canopy.
Looks like the Ghost of Charley

Quoting 196. Climate175:


NOTTING GOING ON IN THE Eastern Pacific RIGHT NOW!!
Into the Storm was a great movie, I recommend it if you're a tornado enthusiast.

There were instances of bad advice (getting in a bus to flee a monster wedge tornado...) and some scientific blunders (you can stand within a few tens of feet of a tornado perfectly fine while everything around you is getting obliterated?), but you could say that about any movie. Wow @ the special effects.
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN


231. FOREX
Quoting 226. TheDawnAwakening:

Convection according to satellite imagery of ADDS, indicates that in the last two images on IR, the convection is starting to rotate counter clockwise, right where the highest vorticity is located in the lowest 2500 feet of the atmosphere. Wind shear is low 5-10 knots, strong divergent upper level anticyclonic outflow present. Dry air is no longer an issue in the convective canopy.


Which entity are we talking about? Just got home.
AOI in the Eastern Caribbean is interesting to look at on satellite, but it will really struggle to ever develop. Trades are howling through the Caribbean. Thus, the already lackluster surface features with the wave will be difficult to consolidate into an area of low pressure. Convection is being enhanced thanks to the upper level divergence associated with the TUTT cell to the northwest of the wave. It also helps that the MJO is slightly favorable for upward motion on our side of the world currently. Shear is actually favorable, but other conditions don't warrant much organization for now. We will see if it has anything left to it once in the Western Caribbean.




interesting little feature in the East Caribbean

not sure it has anywhere to go though


234. FOREX
Quoting 232. MississippiWx:

AOI in the Eastern Caribbean is interesting to look at on satellite, but it will really struggle to ever develop. Trades are howling through the Caribbean. Thus, the already lackluster surface features with the wave will be difficult to consolidate into an area of low pressure. Convection is being enhanced thanks to the upper level divergence associated with the TUTT cell to the northwest of the wave. It also helps that the MJO is slightly favorable for upward motion on our side of the world currently. Shear is actually favorable, but other conditions don't warrant much organization for now. We will see if it has anything left to it once in the Western Caribbean.







Why are several bloggers referring to the wave as an AOI if it has not been designated as such?
I wanted to see into the storm..But then I figured FX will air it about 100 times after a few months of it coming out in theaters.Just like the Day After Tomorrow.They love disaster flicks for some reason.
Quoting 235. washingtonian115:

I wanted to see into the storm..But then I figured FX will air it about 100 times after a few months of it caming out in theaters.Just like the Day After Tomorrow.They love disaster flicks for some reason.
It's the fx - the special effects.....
P. S. like the new avatar...
237. FOREX
No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.
Quoting 207. stormpetrol:



We had some very heavy rain off and on since 12 noon yesterday, what a relief !


Some nice lightning also. I took this the other night.

Quoting 237. FOREX:

No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 13N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 19N BETWEEN 64W TO 68W INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE.....E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON. (8 PM NHC Discussion)

This wave would have better luck if it moved north through the Mona Passage.
Quoting 237. FOREX:

No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.


The only model support it has is that the NAM shows it organising slightly. I think they'll wait and see if it can endure the trade winds or if it organises more.
Wow time is flying, almost 10 days into August. It feel pretty nice outside right now with the low humidity and cool air. it feels very September-like instead of August.
Quoting 237. FOREX:

No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.
Quoting 237. FOREX:

No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.

I don't see any reason it should've been mentioned.
Quoting 243. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see any reason it should've been.

realitycaster!
Quoting 236. BahaHurican:

It's the fx - the special effects.....
P. S. like the new avatar...
Thanks Baha.But even the special effects will not convince me to see this movie.It's got to have a great plot as well.
246. FOREX
Quoting 243. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see any reason it should've been mentioned.
I agree, no argument from me.
Quoting 237. FOREX:

No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.


I suspect the NHC and TWC isn't mentioning our AOI , because it is an area of interest for some though it might not be for the NHC, we cannot say it is an Invest, but it an AOI, and the main reason for ignoring it for now is the lack of "reliable" model support, otherwise they would have been all over it like ticks on bull, just my opinion!
Quoting 247. stormpetrol:



I suspect the NHC and TWC isn't mentioning our AOI , because it is an area of interest for some though it might not be for the NHC, we cannot say it is an Invest, but it an AOI, and the main reason for ignoring it for now is the lack of "reliable" model support, otherwise they would have been all over it like ticks on bull, just my opinion!


It is a WU blob.
Quoting 241. Climate175:

Wow time is flying, almost 10 days into August. It feel pretty nice outside right now with the low humidity and cool air. it feels very September-like instead of August.
We've been sweltering here, inside and outside. This is the type of summer that teaches the meaning of siesta, especially under a cool tree with a pitcher of "switcha" or lemonade made with Bahamian limes.... at 7 p.m. it was still 86 degrees here...
Quoting 247. stormpetrol:



I suspect the NHC and TWC isn't mentioning our AOI , because it is an area of interest for some though it might not be for the NHC, we cannot say it is an Invest, but it an AOI, and the main reason for ignoring it for now is the lack of "reliable" model support, otherwise they would have been all over it like ticks on bull, just my opinion!

For a tropical wave In the East Caribbean with nothing to speak of at the surface facing 20 knots of shear in the fairly immediate future isn't a recipe for success. But these days you never know.
Hey guys
What a relief today glorious rains have fallen from the heavens
Raining on and off

However we still need a ton more rain to mitigate this drought

I do have to say some beautiful T-Storms around the area


On another note E Carib AOI looking really good in all levels
This could develop as it moves through the Caribbean it has about 95-99% good conditions to do so but needs to slow some
I think NHC might recognise this as an AOI tomorrow and tag 94L to it
Providing convection continues through the night
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

Thanks Baha.But even the special effects will not convince me to see this movie.It's got to have a great plot as well.
I'll prolly end up seeing it on FX myself. I have a choice between going to see this movie and visiting one of the local islands. Which do you think I'll take???

[winks]
Quoting 249. BahaHurican:

We've been sweltering here, inside and outside. This is the type of summer that teaches the meaning of siesta, especially under a cool tree with a pitcher of "switcha" or lemonade made with Bahamian limes.... at 7 p.m. it was still 86 degrees here...

yah...we're having 100-plus degree day of heat index after another for weeks here in East Central Fla. It's been a very hot summer; fortunately, we also have lots of precipitation but the humidity also drives up the heat index. okay...night all. we'll see what happens 2morrow
Quoting 247. stormpetrol:



I suspect the NHC and TWC isn't mentioning our AOI , because it is an area of interest for some though it might not be for the NHC, we cannot say it is an Invest, but it an AOI, and the main reason for ignoring it for now is the lack of "reliable" model support, otherwise they would have been all over it like ticks on bull, just my opinion!
It's really just a Twave... there've been so few that act like this in the CAR this season that I think sometimes we forget they're supposed to look this way.... lol ....
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:

I'll prolly end up seeing it on FX myself. I have a choice between going to see this movie and visiting one of the local islands. Which do you think I'll take???

[winks]
Lol.I read some of the movie reviews and besides the special effects..well..But I don't want to ruin anybody's fun :).If you have 10 bucks to tap out on this weekend and in the mood to see a movie that is like a giant hour and a half long tornado video then by all means..
Quoting 243. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see any reason it should've been mentioned.


No, not tonight but I bet we see some action here in the near future with this wave.

World Lowest Temperature for August 8
The world's lowest temperature for August 8 was -90 degrees and occurred at Dome A, Antarctica
850mb is becoming more defined as well.

Quoting 253. Chicklit:


yah...we're having 100-plus degree day of heat index after another for weeks here in East Central Fla. It's been a very hot summer; fortunately, we also have lots of precipitation but the humidity also drives up the heat index.
All I have to say is thank goodness for A/C.... I went into an office the other day and the receptionist was terribly apologetic because I had to wait 20 minutes for them to complete my business.... meanwhile I had no problem waiting... after all, there was A/C... lol ...
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

Lol.I read some of the movie reviews and besides the special effects..well..But I don't want to ruin anybody's fun :).If you have 10 bucks to tap out on this weekend and in the mood to see a movie that is like a giant hour and a half long tornado video then by all means..
Hey, you know that is like... the absolute IT for some of our fellow WUbloggers.... lol ...
To me, that is an unusual pattern of storm clusters over Africa, forming an arc. They are normally more or less in a straight line. The one in central Africa look strong.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N43W TO
11N43W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS IS RESULTING IN NO SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 13N65W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO TO 19N BETWEEN 64W TO 68W INCLUDING THE MONA
PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR
22N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N84W MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF THE WAVE
AXIS WHICH ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N
TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N23W TO 11N34W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 7N48W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-10N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER
SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA.

Quoting 254. BahaHurican:

It's really just a Twave... there've been so few that act like this in the CAR this season that I think sometimes we forget they're supposed to look this way.... lol ....


Actually I think it will probably soon be a tropical low, but then again I don't know.
Quoting 253. Chicklit:


yah...we're having 100-plus degree day of heat index after another for weeks here in East Central Fla. It's been a very hot summer; fortunately, we also have lots of precipitation but the humidity also drives up the heat index. okay...night all. we'll see what happens 2morrow


Same here, Chicklit. Brutal summer. Everybody keeps telling me it's just that I'm getting older and can't tolerate the heat anymore. But I'm telling you, it wasn't like this back in the 1840's when I was a kid.
Quoting 261. BahaHurican:

Hey, you know that is like... the absolute IT for some of our fellow WUbloggers.... lol ...
I know Baha :).Maybe I shouldn't be so harsh with it on here..
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
850mb is becoming more defined as well.


Yes eventually I see a low to soon be in the sfc charts maybe tomorrow 12Z earliest 06Z latest 18Z tomorrow or 00Z Sun
Quoting stormpetrol:


Actually I think it will probably soon be a tropical low, but then again I don't know.

Actually I agree
Quoting 266. Grothar:



Same here, Chicklit. Brutal summer. Everybody keeps telling me it's just that I'm getting older and can't tolerate the heat anymore. But I'm telling you, it wasn't like this back in the 1840's when I was a kid.


Was 104 the last day we were at Disney, 95 to 99 the other days. Was happy to come home to the Atlantic Coast, extra bite up there for sure that made it intolerable at times.
I'am impressed by the shear rates in the carib righ now.They went from a destructive 60-70 knots to 5-20 knots.Thank goodness we don't have a established storm going through there right now.
WE GOT BLUE NOW!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'am impressed by the shear rates in the carib righ now.They went from a destructive 60-70 knots to 5-20 knots.Thank goodness we don't have a established storm going through there right now.

Agreed
But there might be one soon
Updated 850, continues to improve.

ULAC expanding as well

Quoting hurricanes2018:
WE GOT BLUE NOW!!

Woopte-do
We got (it green by the way not blue)
Wait till the middle of Sept when we got reds
Quoting 265. stormpetrol:



Actually I think it will probably soon be a tropical low, but then again I don't know.
I'm not disagreeing. It certainly looks considerably better than anything else that's gone through the Car so far this season.
I'm just saying it's not there yet.
Quoting 272. hurricanes2018:

WE GOT BLUE NOW!!
Looks like a tiny tinge of green on the right-most one....
Quoting FOREX:
No mention of the Caribbean wave on TWC Tropical update just now. Hmmmm.
It is mentioned in the 8 pm NHC update but don't expect to see a garden variety tropical wave mentioned on the TWC Tropical Update. They tend to look at only areas that might develop in the near future or are already developing. For every tropical storm that develops as a home grown Caribbean storm, there are probably 15 TW's that traverse the basin in a season. Mentioning things like this in a general interest weather program is just going to confuse most people. TWC is really not a good source of information about "maybe" tropical systems in any case. That's why the NHC issues discussions.
Quoting 277. BahaHurican:

I'm not disagreeing. It certainly looks considerably better than anything else that's gone through the Car so far this season.
I'm just saying it's not there yet.
Now stop insulting Bertha like that :).
282. FOREX
Quoting 278. BahaHurican:

Looks like a tiny tinge of green on the right-most one....
Greenish blue.
Quoting 257. ProgressivePulse:



No, not tonight but I bet we see some action here in the near future with this wave.



Surface trades are still pretty brisk and wind shear will become more of an issue as an upper-level low over the Bahamas retrogrades west-southwestward.

Very unlikely to develop.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like a tiny tinge of green on the right-most one....
That boy is going to run out of exclamation points before the season's half done at this rate. :-)
285. FOREX
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Surface trades are still pretty brisk and wind shear will become more of an issue as an upper-level low over the Bahamas retrogrades southwestward.

Very unlikely to develop.

Agreed. Will not develop.
I just want one good ape verde type storm like Katia or Danielle to track..then this season can end..
Quoting 277. BahaHurican:

I'm not disagreeing. It certainly looks considerably better than anything else that's gone through the Car so far this season.
I'm just saying it's not there yet.
Let's see if it can survive the night.
Quoting 279. sar2401:

It is mentioned in the 8 pm NHC update but don't expect to see a garden variety tropical wave mentioned on the TWC Tropical Update. They tend to look at only areas that might develop in the near future or are already developing. For every tropical storm that develops as a home grown Caribbean storm, there are probably 15 TW's that traverse the basin in a season. Mentioning things like this in a general interest weather program is just going to confuse most people. TWC is really not a good source of information about "maybe" tropical systems in any case. That's why the NHC issues discussions.
A bit of advice to FOREX... at this time of year, you want to be reading the DISCUSSION [TWD] on the NHC website if you are looking for early indications on undeclared "AOIs" like our current Twave we r watching. The discussion will identify Twaves and other features that may potentially lead to tropical development. It also gives a summary of conditions in the tropical part of the ATL so you can begin to interpret from current conditions what to expect over say, the following 48 hours. They usually also include a link to the current surface analysis which can be helpful in connecting the discussion with features observed in imagery.

I rarely look at the TWO; I always look at the TWD.
Quoting 280. washingtonian115:

Now stop insulting Bertha like that :).
IMO Bertha didn't so much "go through" as "edge around".... another 50 miles to the NE and it wouldn't have hit Caribbean waters at all .... lol ...

Quoting 280. washingtonian115:

Now stop insulting Bertha like that :).


Who?

:)
Quoting 291. Astrometeor:



Who?

:)
Well you know..The squashed looking storm with the-okay,okay..lol.
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Surface trades are still pretty brisk and wind shear will become more of an issue as an upper-level low over the Bahamas retrogrades west-southwestward.

Very unlikely to develop.


Haven't looked much into the future to be honest. Looks to be in a happy place this evening however.
Quoting 285. FOREX:


Agreed. Will not develop.
He did not say it won't develop. He said unlikely. That is improbable but not impossible. Never underestimate the NW Caribbean when it comes to possible development.
That wave over central America have let a lot of rain in my city. I believe I get more rain yesterday than all the previous months of the year. Not that I am complaining. :) The skies are dark so wish me luck for more.
Quoting 262. Grothar:

To me, that is an unusual pattern of storm clusters over Africa, forming an arc. They are normally more or less in a straight line. The one in central Africa look strong.


If only conditions were favorable for development then we would look like the Epac. I want to see if the same pattern of strong waves were in 2010 when we got Danille, Earl, etc.
298. FOREX
Quoting 295. stormwatcherCI:

He did not say it won't develop. He said unlikely. That is improbable but not impossible. Never underestimate the NW Caribbean when it comes to possible development.


I know what he said. I agreed with him. My opinion is that it will not develop.
Grothar brings up an interesting point with the waves over Africa. Big buckle in the ITCZ. Have to say I really miss tracking big long track canes in the ATL.
hurricane Julio is weaking fast to no more eye wall and the same thing happern to tropical storm Iselle!! we say goodbye to Iselle soon.
Quoting 302. hurricanes2018:

hurricane Julio is weaking fast to no more eye wall and the same thing happern to tropical storm Iselle!! we say goodbye to Iselle soon.
Well he did his duty as a tropical cyclone peacefully.Which is transporting heat from the tropics.
Man does the instability bar need to be lowered? Will it ever get at or above normal?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Af rica/West/Infraredcolor.htm

Splashdown off the coast of Guinea.


Quoting 305. ProgressivePulse:
Man does the instability bar need to be lowered? Will it ever get at or above normal?

Yes it will get back to normal and beyond. Someday in the future ProgressivePulse. Someday........................someday.
1004mb low causing that buckle in central africa.

Quoting 303. ProgressivePulse:




This pretty much has to change if anyone is hoping for an Atlantic hurricane developing in the MDF. Home grown systems in the SW Atlantic is pretty much the area where we can get a hurricane. Maybe in the GOM later in the year (unless El nino comes in hard).
Quoting 294. ncstorm:


I am officially throwing that piece of paper in the trash with much disdain. Grothar put out the map for all to see tonight. Watch out the next few weeks. I knew this as soon as I saw the derecho in Arkansas signalling the weakening/moving of the jet stream. Good night folks.
Quoting 310. jrweatherman:



This pretty much has to change if anyone is hoping for an Atlantic hurricane developing in the MDF. Home grown systems in the SW Atlantic is pretty much the area where we can get a hurricane. Maybe in the GOM later in the year (unless El nino comes in hard).


This is no El Nino and truthfully it's probably not going to happen soon enough to have any more of an impact than it already has on the season.

Looks like a hybrid La Nina / El Nino, lol.
Quoting 312. ProgressivePulse:



This is no El Nino and truthfully it's probably not going to happen soon enough to have any more of an impact than it already has on the season.




Don't disagree. It will have to come fast in September to shorten the end of the season.
Quoting 301. ProgressivePulse:

Grothar brings up an interesting point with the waves over Africa. Big buckle in the ITCZ. Have to say I really miss tracking big long track canes in the ATL.
yep good old days.



Quoting 315. bigwes6844:

yep good old days.


Big low coming off Africa, and an area that I think at least will be of interest in the Caribbean early next week. We'll see how things go. Looks to be going zonal in the eastern CONUS on cue.
According to Accuweather



Quoting 319. Grothar:

According to Accuweather






Farmers Agree.

AUGUST 2014: temperature 83 (1 above avg.); precipitation 7.5" (4" above avg. north, 4" below south); Aug 1-11: Daily t-storms, hot and humid; Aug 12-21: Scattered t-storms; turning cooler north, very warm and humid south; Aug 22-27: Daily t-storms, seasonable north; isolated t-storms, hot south; Aug 28-31: A couple of t-storms, seasonable.

SEPTEMBER 2014: temperature 82 (2 above avg.); precipitation 7.5" (2" above avg.); Sep 1-2: Hurricane threat; Sep 3-12: A few t-storms; cool, then warm; Sep 13-16: Hurricane threat; Sep 17-21: Sunny north, scattered t-storms south; warm; Sep 22-27: Hurricane threat; Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.
Triple hurricane threats for Fla in September according to the Farmers.
Even though the 2nd cluster of thunderstorms is a little higher latitude, it would appear to follow the other wave and move towards the south before emerging off the coast.

Quoting 322. Grothar:

Even though the 2nd cluster of thunderstorms is a little higher latitude, it would appear to follow the other wave and move towards the south before emerging off the coast.




That's a big complex Gro. I think it all may be related. 1004mb Low parked in the center of all that.
Quoting 320. ProgressivePulse:



Farmers Agree.

AUGUST 2014: temperature 83� (1� above avg.); precipitation 7.5" (4" above avg. north, 4" below south); Aug 1-11: Daily t-storms, hot and humid; Aug 12-21: Scattered t-storms; turning cooler north, very warm and humid south; Aug 22-27: Daily t-storms, seasonable north; isolated t-storms, hot south; Aug 28-31: A couple of t-storms, seasonable.

SEPTEMBER 2014: temperature 82� (2� above avg.); precipitation 7.5" (2" above avg.); Sep 1-2: Hurricane threat; Sep 3-12: A few t-storms; cool, then warm; Sep 13-16: Hurricane threat; Sep 17-21: Sunny north, scattered t-storms south; warm; Sep 22-27: Hurricane threat; Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.


I would not be surprised if two systems developed after next week. The Atlantic is a'changing.
Quoting 315. bigwes6844:

yep good old days.






Nice images. I never saw those before. But then again, I say the same thing about the NCIS reruns.
Quoting 321. ProgressivePulse:

Triple hurricane threats for Fla in September according to the Farmers.
FA not OFA predicts a hurricane to hit the Mid-Alantic September and a offshore tropical storm to affect coastal New England. Sept 12th-15th. Lots of cloudiness. An offshore tropical storm could pose a threat to coastal New England.
Sept 16th-19th. Hurricane threat Mid-Atlantic coast; tropical cyclone moves inland possibly bringing flooding rains inland across Virginias, parts of Pennsylvania, New York.
Quoting 324. Grothar:



I would not be surprised if two systems developed after next week. The Atlantic is a'changing.


We've been harping that for weeks Gro, right on cue?
Oh and Forex just for you FA predicts a TS in the Gulf in October lol.
Quoting 326. Climate175:

FA not OFA predicts a hurricane to hit the Mid-Alantic September and a offshore tropical storm to affect coastal New England. Sept 12th-15th. Lots of cloudiness. An offshore tropical storm could pose a threat to coastal New England.
Sept 16th-19th. Hurricane threat Mid-Atlantic coast; tropical cyclone moves inland possibly bringing flooding rains inland across Virginias, parts of Pennsylvania, New York.



I didn't realize there was an old and a new? what's the difference?
Quoting 318. ProgressivePulse:



Big low coming off Africa, and an area that I think at least will be of interest in the Caribbean early next week. We'll see how things go. Looks to be going zonal in the eastern CONUS on cue.
i hope so this is depressing not seeing nothing in August. I normally get excited about this month but i guess ill wait
Quoting 317. sunlinepr:




Look how tiny those storms are compared to the monstrosity up by Alaska.
Quoting 319. Grothar:

According to Accuweather




hey gro they almost had the prediction of a snowstorm for the super bowl but was only a day off. it happen monday instead so there pretty good. Gro cali still has the drought holding during falll? really? wth? when will they get rain man
Quoting 329. ProgressivePulse:



I didn't realize there was an old and a new? what's the difference?
The Old Farmers Almanac is older lol.
Quoting 332. bigwes6844:

hey gro they almost had the prediction of a snowstorm for the super bowl but was only a day off. it happen monday instead so there pretty good


What a difference a day makes.
Quoting 321. ProgressivePulse:

Triple hurricane threats for Fla in September according to the Farmers.


And I notice they are closer up to you than here. No problem with that. :)
337. MahFL
Nice pinhole eye :

Forecast Wind Impacts Tropical Storm Iselle august 8 2014

- Big Island: Wind gusts over 50 mph, higher in the mountains, will slowly diminish Friday. Expect downed trees, power outages, and some structural damage.

- Maui County, Oahu: Winds over 40 mph, with gusts of 55-65 mph, particularly over mountainous terrain. Some downed trees, power outages, and minor structural damage is possible.

- Kauai, Niihau: Tropical storm-force winds (40+ mph) should begin Friday afternoon. Closest approach of center expected Friday evening. Some downed trees, power outages possible
Quoting 331. VAbeachhurricanes:



Look how tiny those storms are compared to the monstrosity up by Alaska.


Spells pattern change in the ATL.
Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)
Side Note:

NEW: U.S. makes another drop of food and water to Iraqis stranded on mountain
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)


All in good fun TA. Although they got Arthur right? ;-)
Quoting 337. MahFL:

Nice pinhole eye :




what is it mean?
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)


Cody you just don't get "it"
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them


Reminds me of you! :D <3
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)


Yea, saying there will be a hurricane landfall sometime in late-August, for instance, doesn't exactly take a miracle worker to figure out.
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)


No, TA. I don't think anyone does. It's a haha moment.
Just like Ice Cores show the last 800K years of Global CO2..history.

Yo, Science.

Hurricane Julio
Pressure: 970 mb
Last Updated Aug 08, 2014 0300 GMT
Location 18.9N 144.7W Movement WNW
Wind 95 MPH
Quoting 321. ProgressivePulse:

Triple hurricane threats for Fla in September according to the Farmers.


no way!!
Quoting 350. Patrap:

Just like Ice Cores show the last 800K years of Global CO2..history.

Yo, Science.



How you holding up Pat?

Quoting 234. FOREX:



Why are several bloggers referring to the wave as an AOI if it has not been designated as such?

That's because I can label any thunderstorm or cloud or cloud-free area an Area of Interest (AOI). The NHC doesn't officially label anything an AOI.  Just looking at the Eastern Caribbean wave on satellite should draw some interest from bloggers, meteorologists, etc. Therefore, it's a fair statement to say it's an AOI. ;-)
Quoting 353. PedleyCA:


How you holding up Pat?



Holding, see Surgeon Tues to see if I can come outta block sling and Begin PT hopefully.

Thanx.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1001 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2014

Short term [tonight through sunday]...

Very weak deep layer ridging will prevail through the weekend,
though a series of weak mid-level waves will pass through the tri-
state region enhancing rain chances each day. Expect widespread
coverage of storms both Saturday and Sunday, with the greatest
coverage expected across Alabama and Georgia. Coastal showers
should be expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend each morning.
High temperatures each day will peak in the middle 90s.

Long term [sunday night through friday]...

The weak mid/upper level ridge will give way to a more amplified
pattern in the form of a trough by Tuesday night and lasting
through the end of next week. This will set up an east-to-west
oriented surface trough near the tri-state lines and yield well
above average rain chances region-wide.
Afternoon highs will
remain very close to seasonal averages, in the low 90s.
Why are several bloggers referring to the wave as an AOI if it has not been designated as such?

To keep us from going mad.
358. FOREX
Quoting 354. MississippiWx:



That's because I can label any thunderstorm or cloud or cloud-free area an Area of Interest (AOI). The NHC doesn't officially label anything an AOI.  Just looking at the Eastern Caribbean wave on satellite should draw some interest from bloggers, meteorologists, etc. Therefore, it's a fair statement to say it's an AOI. ;-)

Do as you will, the wave is looking worse each frame.
Quoting 354. MississippiWx:



That's because I can label any thunderstorm or cloud or cloud-free area an Area of Interest (AOI). The NHC doesn't officially label anything an AOI.  Just looking at the Eastern Caribbean wave on satellite should draw some interest from bloggers, meteorologists, etc. Therefore, it's a fair statement to say it's an AOI. ;-)



Drew? Is that you? I haven't seen you here in like...forever.
Quoting 359. Astrometeor:



Drew? Is that you? I haven't seen you here in like...forever.

Nah, he was murdered and the guy that killed him just happened to know his Weather Underground log-in to pose as Drew. :)
Quoting 351. hurricanes2018:

Hurricane Julio
Pressure: 970 mb
Last Updated Aug 08, 2014 0300 GMT
Location 18.9N 144.7W Movement WNW
Wind 95 MPH

WU needs to fix this problem they always show a system with 95mph hours as a cat 2 when 100mph is the requirement for acat 2.
Quoting 322. Grothar:

Even though the 2nd cluster of thunderstorms is a little higher latitude, it would appear to follow the other wave and move towards the south before emerging off the coast.


I am not sure if it was the ensembles or a model that show that wave trying to develop but it move it to far north over sal to develop. It already has a low pressure system if it moves further south it might get a chance.
Quoting 360. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah, he was murdered and the guy that killed him just happened to know his Weather Underground log-in to pose as Drew. :)


Ah, thanks Kori.
Quoting 357. opal92nwf:


To keep us from going mad.


Honestly, watching Pacific cyclones makes the wait seem a lot less... antagonizing.

I recommend everyone try it.
356. opal92nwf
3:53 AM GMT on August 09, 2014

Applicable to the tropics

This will set up an east-to-west
oriented surface trough


Or "ZONAL" flow
Quoting 340. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol @ the Farmers Almanac. I hope people don't actually take that thing seriously.

(And no, don't throw examples of fulfilled forecasts at me. A few are likely to be right if you make enough of them)


Mind you Farmer's nailed last winter which the NWS missed by a mile and then some.
Quoting 365. DeepSeaRising:



Mind you Farmer's nailed last winter which the NWS missed by a mile and then some.


Yes, and I laughed at the forecasts as well (since it had been cold all year) and I did a 2013 prediction of 8-4-1. Doesn't mean I have any talent as a forecaster.
Quoting 365. DeepSeaRising:



Mind you Farmer's nailed last winter which the NWS missed by a mile and then some.


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Quoting 355. Patrap:




Holding, see Surgeon Tues to see if I can come outta block sling and Begin PT hopefully.

Thanx.
Getting there... steady as she goes...


Geez... u know it's really slow when I get up at 1 a.m. and meet the late crew discussing the Farmer's Almanac forecasts.... lol ....
Reminder that every single region that can develop tropical cyclones has had at least a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Scale in the past 365 days. Except for the Atlantic
Quoting 367. KoritheMan:



Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


Yes but that is rationalization. FA use different measured nature's norms for their projections, ones that have been used for 200 years. Just saying, if it's the NWS or FA, it's a guess based on science and measured norms for the FA. Both are fraught with error and only a scientific guess. Scientific advances obviously favors the NWS, but the FA can not be discounted. Sometimes :).
So what Kori, do you say about the air ball the NWS threw up for last years winter?
Quoting 370. DeepSeaRising:



Yes but that is rationalization.
No, it's a justification.


Quoting 370. DeepSeaRising:


the FA can not be discounted. Sometimes :).
My brother knows that wind shear weakens tropical cyclones and promotes severe weather. Doesn't mean he can't be discounted just because he might be able to identify shear (Thanks to me, by the way. You're welcome).

Quoting 372. DeepSeaRising:

So what Kori, do you say about the air ball the NWS threw up for last years winter?
What's there to say about it?

Weather is weather. There is margin for error.
Whether it be the FA or the NWS, we are far from accurately predicting what will come more than a week out. Tropical forecasts have come light years in the last decade, but future numbers remain an absolute unknown. While science has brought us far we are but in the infancy of predicting. Nature still holds all the cards and nature is in change as never seen before.
Quoting 374. KoritheMan:


What's there to say about it?

Weather is weather. There is margin for error.



So no props for the FA for last year's winter? Yet excuses for the NWS. Smells of a double standard Kori. Predictions are just that. NWS is the standard worldwide, no doubt in that. Yet this is a study in it's infancy still, historic studies such as the FA should not be discounted over the scientific advances of the NWS. FA is like a lightweight fighting a heavyweight in the NWS, yet the heavyweight will not always win. Point is, there is something to be learned.
Quoting 376. DeepSeaRising:



So no props for the FA for last year's winter? Yet excuses for the NWS. Smells of a double standard Kori. Predictions are just that. NWS is the standard worldwide, no doubt in that. Yet this is a study in it's infancy still, historic studies such as the FA should not be discounted over the scientific advances of the NWS. FA is like a lightweight fighting a heavyweight in the NWS, yet the heavyweight will not always win. Point is, there is something to be learned.


No, there's not. FA's guessing off of historical averages. A poor shot will eventually hit their target, while the expert will occasionally miss a shot. That's all there is. There is nothing to be learned from FA. The NWS, meanwhile, will focus on ever refining their skills.
Quoting 376. DeepSeaRising:



So no props for the FA for last year's winter? Yet excuses for the NWS. Smells of a double standard Kori. Predictions are just that. NWS is the standard worldwide, no doubt in that. Yet this is a study in it's infancy still, historic studies such as the FA should not be discounted over the scientific advances of the NWS. FA is like a lightweight fighting a heavyweight in the NWS, yet the heavyweight will not always win. Point is, there is something to be learned.

The Farmers Almanac has no methodology; its predictions are not much more accurate than chance. The NWS relies on atmospheric observations, trends, and computer model guidance to make their forecasts. They might not always be right, but they shouldn't be expected to be. Meteorology is an inexact science. It always will be.
P.S. Into the Storm has one of the best soundtracks of any movie, ever (IMO)

380. JRRP

see you tomorrow
Well you'll all be glad to know Dr. Masters did a piece on the Farmer's Almanac and found it be fraught with error and coin flip forecast at best. Just playing devil's advocate because it's late and not a great deal to discuss. So last year was a fluke of luck for the FA and a missed forecast by the NWS. I'll go with that. What now for the season. See waves are coming off into questionable conditions. Still thinking August 20th for next invest and a sub ten named storms season. Any reason to believe it'll be more active. Seen the, "Conditions are changing for the MDR and shear and trade winds are lowering over the Caribbean." Buying or selling?
Quoting 379. TropicalAnalystwx13:

P.S. Into the Storm has one of the best soundtracks of any movie, ever (IMO)




8/10. Less weird noises, more heavy percussion.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That first sin I actually didn't know in regards to tornado warnings.
Anyone seen "into the storm" yet? Going soon. University study just out that tornado outbreaks will be less but with more and stronger tornadoes. Don't remember who or what university published it, and too lazy to look it up, but was an interesting read.

Quoting 379. TropicalAnalystwx13:

P.S. Into the Storm has one of the best soundtracks of any movie, ever (IMO)


We know it's your opinion. No need to preface it like that.
386. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
P.S. Into the Storm has one of the best soundtracks of any movie, ever (IMO)


of any movie ??
I think this is the best... just imagine Hurricane Luis (1995) approaching the island, really scary
Quoting 383. CybrTeddy:



That first sin I actually didn't know in regards to tornado warnings.

As a weather enthusiast, I'll throw in another sin--how the heck did they know the strength of the tornadoes they were chasing without an official damage survey by the local NWS office?!

Quoting 384. DeepSeaRising:

Anyone seen "into the storm" yet? Going soon. University study just out that tornado outbreaks will be less but with more and stronger tornadoes. Don't remember who or what university published it, and too lazy to look it up, but was an interesting read.

I saw it this afternoon. Acting needs some work in parts, some scenes aren't meteorologically accurate (that's to be expected). Special effects were incredible. Definitely watch it.

Quoting 385. KoritheMan:


We know it's your opinion. No need to preface it like that.


Technically I didn't preface it, IMO is the last thing I said. ;)
Problems (sins) with Twister was very funny TA. Oh my. Still one of my favorites. Bill Paxton makes all the right moves and obviously knows the strength of the twisters simply by a quick glance and his ability to know when a twister is going to turn on a dime highlights his awesomeness. Fantasy land at it's best.
watching here to!
I have a hard time following this guy on TWC right now but maybe im just tried
Good morning. Ex-Bertha approaching northwestern Europe today, but she's not alone:


Today's weather map with the gathering of three stormy ladies.


Water wapor Europe this morning.

Hurricane Bertha remnants may hit south of England on Sunday
Met Office says 60%-70% chance Atlantic depression will hit, with next 24 hours critical for predicting effects on UK weather
Frances Perraudin, The Guardian, Saturday 9 August 2014

UK already got their share of rain in advance:
Flash flooding in Cambridgeshire traps drivers, cuts off power
BBC, 8 August 2014 Last updated at 20:38 GMT



Moreover:

Tornado hitting Hortum/Kocaeli (northern coast of Turkey / Black Sea) yesterday:



Have a nice day everybody!

Halong approaching Japan's mainlands.
fear mongering events? could it backfire on the global warming alarmist? the last hi. event is a classic example. alot of hype little bite
Quoting 396. islander101010:

fear mongering events? could it backfire on the global warming alarmist? the last hi. event is a classic example. alot of hype little bite


Care to a) define the term "global warming alarmist", b) explain how that relates in any way to Isabelle/Julio, c) describe what you mean by "the last hi. event is a classic example", and d) define the term "hype"? And while we await your reasoned response, my thoughts on 'A' and 'D':

A) The only "global warming alarmists" I've run into are those who scream and shout that doing anything at all to counteract the four million metric tons of CO2 we pump into the air each hour will cause the total collapse of our way of life as we know it.

D) "Hype" is short for "hyperbole", and "hyperbole" means "exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally." So while perhaps some ratings-driven media outlets "hyped" the storms, that certainly can't be said of the NHC or NOAA. Those organizations exist to produce warnings of impeding events, and--as usual--they performed very well.

Looking forward to your reply. Thanks!
no thanxs neo just turned the tv on local weather girl just said unbearable heat indexes continue. duh its august in florida. just another summer
Quoting 331. VAbeachhurricanes:



Look how tiny those storms are compared to the monstrosity up by Alaska.


Hawaii is getting swell from all directions. Possible north shore swell in summer. That storm is huge. Looks more like an Oct/Nov storm. Wow, strange year.

As far as the Atlantic I'm just going to expect the unexpected.
Good Saturday morning! Here's the latest (8 a.m.) update from the NHC on the ECarb TWave.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE PENINSULA OF PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FROM 10N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 64W AND 71W.

Shear is not favorable for ECarb wave, obviously.
Also from 8 am
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
This one might have better luck.

06Z NAM at 84 hour - the southern end of the Caribbean wave has moved into the Yucatan while the northern end of the wave is entering the southern GOM. Based on the lack of model support from other models, development chances don't look to good.
But it will be worth watching to see if a piece of this wave can get into the GOM.

Although Julio is no longer anticipated to directly affect Hawaii, he is still in somewhat uncharted territory.
The latest advisory set keeps him as a hurricane until he reaches 155W, ie due north of the Big Island.
According to the NOAA Hurricane Database, only two E-W moving EPAC storms (1950 and 1957) have held hurricane intensity while trekking north of the Islands and west of 155. This doesn't include storms that recurved from the south like Iniki. Quite the Pacific Hurricane season.
You don't have to post the colored graphic of the sal as with the visible image is clear how strong is the outbreak. Is not usual to have these strong outbreaks in August. 2013 had a strong outbreak in early August and we know what happened.

the tropical wave coming off of west AFRICAN
Good morning all.... beautiful HOT day so far here in Nassau... I went outside at 7:30 and worked up a sweat just driving to the store and back. It's HUMID out there .... according to my phone app, it was 82 at 6:53 this a.m. ....
10 Years ago today, Hurricane Charley became a Tropical Depression in the Caribbean.
Landfall in Florida was on Aug. 13th.
Interesting fact about Charley. Hurricane Charely intensified 40mph in 3 hours (Cat 2 to Cat 4). That's one of the fastest intensifying systems in history.

Quoting 403. Chicklit:

Also from 8 am
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
This one might have better luck.


Morning Chick... I noticed that wave in the WCar as soon as I looked at the sat imagery.... this morning's view is the most convection we've seen in the Car since June .... lol ...
I'm watching the ECar Twave and hoping it doesn't amplify itself enough to create lots of showers over the SE Bahamas. I'm going down that way for a couple of days and am hoping to get lots of great wx for photography....
Good Morning..





need to be watch!!!
Later

06z Navgem


00z CMC


12z Euro-120 hours but the storm dissapates..


another one at 240 hours





Hurricane JULIO winds going down soon at 11am
Quoting 412. ncstorm:




New pouch 017L is up inside West Africa.

P17L
16N, 13E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Pouch is somewhat weak early on, but a pouch center is discernible all five days. Strengthens, with the max OW at 108 hours.

GFS: Tracks more to the NW than ECMWF, emerging from Africa near 21N rather than about 16N (as in ECMWF). Weaker than ECMWF.

UKMET: Initial position is still east of the 15E UKMET domain boundary, so the initial position is not accurate. P17L is not as well-depicted over west Africa as in ECMWF and GFS. Weak feature appears to track to NW for a couple days and then turns to the SW, becoming better organized as it reaches the coast.

NAVGEM: Tracks much slower, remaining over west Africa all five days. By Day 5, another larger pouch develops just off the African coast to the west,

Quoting 416. Tropicsweatherpr:



New pouch 017L is up inside West Africa.

P17L
16N, 13E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Pouch is somewhat weak early on, but a pouch center is discernible all five days. Strengthens, with the max OW at 108 hours.

GFS: Tracks more to the NW than ECMWF, emerging from Africa near 21N rather than about 16N (as in ECMWF). Weaker than ECMWF.

UKMET: Initial position is still east of the 15E UKMET domain boundary, so the initial position is not accurate. P17L is not as well-depicted over west Africa as in ECMWF and GFS. Weak feature appears to track to NW for a couple days and then turns to the SW, becoming better organized as it reaches the coast.

NAVGEM: Tracks much slower, remaining over west Africa all five days. By Day 5, another larger pouch develops just off the African coast to the west,




i am watching p13L
Quoting 379. TropicalAnalystwx13:

P.S. Into the Storm has one of the best soundtracks of any movie, ever (IMO)



That movie was soooo bad... I don't even think I heard the music while I was watching it. In fact, I may not have been able to hear it over my laughter and facepalming!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all.... beautiful HOT day so far here in Nassau... I went outside at 7:30 and worked up a sweat just driving to the store and back. It's HUMID out there .... according to my phone app, it was 82 at 6:53 this a.m. ....
Good morning as well. 90 degrees with a dewpoint of 79 in SE Alabama at 9:00 in the morning. It's safer to go outside at 20 below in Cleveland than to head out now. I'm pretty sure I have a good idea of what hell would be like. If we don't get some rain soon I'm going to turn homicidal...or maybe suicidal. :-)
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That movie was soooo bad... I don't even think I heard the music while I was watching it. In fact, I may not have been able to hear it over my laughter and facepalming!
There's a switch inside your head labeled "Turn off Science Guy". If you can find it, you'll enjoy movies (because they're, like...movies) a lot more. :-)
Quoting 418. hydrus:


Hello Hydrus. How are you this morning?
There is new research out from FSU tha climate change is causing less tornadoes but outbreaks come in clusters with more & more violent tornadoes...

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.
Quoting 420. sar2401:

Good morning as well. 90 degrees with a dewpoint of 79 in SE Alabama at 9:00 in the morning. It's safer to go outside at 20 below in Cleveland than to head out now. I'm pretty sure I have a good idea of what hell would be like. If we don't get some rain soon I'm going to turn homicidal...or maybe suicidal. :-)
yes i know the feeling about needing rain..this morning finally after 2 or more dry weeks we got a good half hours pouring rain...finally all the plants and grass are soaking wet.
good morning.....woke up to thunder this a.m.........then a nice little downpour......gauge had slightly above a quarter inch.......copius for these parts......heard that a little section of the county to my east was flooded....supposed to subside by mid morning and then remain rain free for the next week
Quoting Skyepony:
There is new research out from FSU tha climate change is causing less tornadoes but outbreaks come in clusters with more & more violent tornadoes...

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.


I don't see how he can come to that conclusion based on the data over the past 60 years.

For all we know next year might be a really busy year for tornadoes.

just checked noaa for the official totals at the airport......they recorded a tenth of an inch so far.....finally over 2" for the year.....normal is around 6-7 inches this time of year
Rather cool for Mid August.




Note the bad tornado year (2011)
I think there is too much variability at this time to make any valid conclusions on the connection between GW and tornadoes in the U.S.


nice tropical wave here!!
Quoting 424. Skyepony:

There is new research out from FSU tha climate change is causing less tornadoes but outbreaks come in clusters with more & more violent tornadoes...

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.
This seems to be very much the trend with most CC impacts.... longer periods wit hone type of wx in place, e.g. dry / wet periods due to jet stream being stuck in one place... hurricane trends seem to be similar... fewer hurricanes overall, but when they do happen they're expected to be [on average] stronger than usual... more droughts and floods...

Wow... it's raining here right now.... out of a blue sky .... lol ...
If you count all tornadoes (EF0-EF5), tornadoes have actually been increasing since 1950. We've just had a couple slow years. It's going to take a lot more time/data to determine if annual tornadoes across the U.S. are decreasing.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I don't see how he can come to that conclusion based on the data over the past 60 years.

For all we know next year might be a really busy year for tornadoes.

It's utterly impossible, from reading a press release about a single study that I haven't read, to make any kind of judgement about AGW and tornadoes. Even the press release doesn't make sense, seemingly mixing number of tornadoes with density of tornadoes.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
If you count all tornadoes (EF0-EF5), tornadoes have actually been increasing since 1950.

The increasing number of tornadoes bears an almost 1:1 relationship with the increase in radar.
Went 3 weeks without a shower, then it sprinkled on and off for 4 days.
Today we got a small little blip that decided to park over us.

We cant ever get a band of rain to slowly move over us. Due to my geological location, somehow, rain doesn't seem to like us. At one point last year, a few towns about 10 minutes away from us had 7 inches more than we did that year.

Talk about scattered showers..
Quoting hydrus:
Rather cool for Mid August.

Doesn't look like the latest version of the "polar vortex" makes it very far south or west though...
Quoting 424. Skyepony:

There is new research out from FSU tha climate change is causing less tornadoes but outbreaks come in clusters with more & more violent tornadoes...

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.


This decadal tornado data chart for Oklahoma City:

confirms the noted recent increase in more violent tornadoes (F4/F5) in this current decade, and we are not even halfway through with it yet.
Quoting SLINKY:


This decadal tornado data chart for Oklahoma City:

confirms the noted recent increase in more violent tornadoes (F4/F5) in this current decade, and we are not even halfway through with it yet.


First its one selected location.
And it doesn't support the theory that there are less tornadoes in the United States.

More violent - maybe
Less tornadoes - no evidence
Quoting Skyepony:
There is new research out from FSU tha climate change is causing less tornadoes but outbreaks come in clusters with more & more violent tornadoes...

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.
Gotta agree with FLcat5's comment (add: 427). Sounds like some of the author's conclusions are based on numbers of tornadoes, damages and deaths, which does not fly.

To quote your link, the study's main author, "But a deeper dive into the data showed more severity in the types of storms and that more were happening on a given day than in previous years."

Tornado data depends on intangibles...
~reports from the public
~damage assessments, though as correct as possible, are add: lol, not objective
~track
~whether or not the public involved pays attention
~others, I'm sure
~add, meant to put radar availability (Nexrad only since early-mid 1990s)
so, of course...
~longterm data just isn't there in a truly measurable form

Tropical cyclones storms have ACE so maybe the effect on them will be more scientifically measurable.

Interesting also, the main investigator is a geography professor... "Elsner was joined on the paper by independent researcher Thomas H. Jagger, formerly a research associate at Florida State University, and meteorologist Svetoslava Elsner."

I hope no one takes Eisner's study as fact add: that global warming is affecting severe patterns.

(adds indicated as noted)
Quoting 439. Sfloridacat5:



First its one selected location.
And it doesn't support the theory that they are less tornadoes in the United States.

More violent - maybe
Less tornadoes - no evidence
I was under the impression that this is a FOREcast, i. e. designed to suggest what will happen to trends 50 - 100 years from now, rather than a "NOWcast", i. e. summing up current observations. All of what you guys are saying may indeed be true, but the comments seem tangential to the central idea of the article...
Quoting SLINKY:


This decadal tornado data chart for Oklahoma City:

confirms the noted recent increase in more violent tornadoes (F4/F5) in this current decade, and we are not even halfway through with it yet.
In the 1950's and 1960's, there wasan't a single EF-4 or 5 tornado in the OKC area? This seems difficult to believe.
Quoting 439. Sfloridacat5:



First its one selected location.
And it doesn't support the theory that there are less tornadoes in the United States.

More violent - maybe
Less tornadoes - no evidence

And when the cycle changes so will the papers
so they can stay on the cutting edge of the money.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was under the impression that this is a FOREcast, i. e. designed to suggest what will happen to trends 50 - 100 years from now, rather than a "NOWcast", i. e. summing up current observations. All of what you guys are saying may indeed be true, but the comments seem tangential to the central idea of the article...
Your impression is not correct. Read the article again.
Quoting 444. sar2401:

Your impression is not correct. Read the article again.
I would, except I am off.... taking a couple of days to visit one of the Family Islands...

Will post pics as and when I can.

Enjoy your weekend, all. I'm sure I will, so long as the mosquitoes don't hang me.... lol.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 433. Sfloridacat5:

If you count all tornadoes (EF0-EF5), tornadoes have actually been increasing since 1950. We've just had a couple slow years. It's going to take a lot more time/data to determine if annual tornadoes across the U.S. are decreasing.


It would also be interesting to know if there has been any shift in average latitude of tornadoes in that time period -- seems like there are more southerly tracks as well as more northerly ones -- like maybe the generally middle latitude midwest area has been split into more northerly and southerly areas.
From MSN

Dead zone' in the Gulf of Mexico is the size of Connecticut

he zone, which at about 5,000 square miles (13,000 sq km) is the second largest in the world but still smaller than in previous years, is so named because it contains no oxygen, or too little, at the Gulf floor to support bottom-dwelling fish and shrimp.

'Dead zone' in the Gulf of Mexico is the size of Connecticut: Graphic explains how dead zones occur.Reuters

Scroll down to see: "Dead zones" explained

The primary cause of the annual phenomenon is excess nutrient runoff from farms along the Mississippi River, which empties into the Gulf, said Gene Turner, a researcher at Louisiana State University's Coastal Ecology Institute.

The nutrients feed algae growth, which consumes oxygen when it works its way to the Gulf bottom, he said.

"It's a poster child for how we are using and abusing our natural resources," Turner said.

Turner said the zone has at least twice in recent years reached the size of Massachusetts, about 8,200 square miles (21,000 sq km).



Link to article

Link
Quoting 409. Sfloridacat5:

10 Years ago today, Hurricane Charley became a Tropical Depression in the Caribbean.
Landfall in Florida was on Aug. 13th.
Interesting fact about Charley. Hurricane Charely intensified 40mph in 3 hours (Cat 2 to Cat 4). That's one of the fastest intensifying systems in history.



I remember watching this unfolding on TWC right after we moved to Illinois from FL. It was kind of surreal seeing a hurricane that strong hit the US- it had been so long. And being 11 yrs old, it was actually the first such storm I'd witnessed.
Quoting SLINKY:


This decadal tornado data chart for Oklahoma City:

confirms the noted recent increase in more violent tornadoes (F4/F5) in this current decade, and we are not even halfway through with it yet.
Compared to what? Prior to the early-mid 1990s when the US government gave Nexrad to NWS as a tool? The days when only Indians inhabited the Plains?
Quoting 442. sar2401:

In the 1950's and 1960's, there wasan't a single EF-4 or 5 tornado in the OKC area? This seems difficult to believe.


The raw data and charts, going back to 1890, can be found in this Norman, OK NWS site: Link
Here's a radar loop of the EF-1 tornado that went through Edgewater on July 25. Watch the area between Sanford and Daytona Beach, the rotation is easy to see. That was a scary storm, my screen door didn't appreciate it much!

Farm runoff Louisiana-Mississippi coast



Quoting 433. Sfloridacat5:

If you count all tornadoes (EF0-EF5), tornadoes have actually been increasing since 1950. We've just had a couple slow years. It's going to take a lot more time/data to determine if annual tornadoes across the U.S. are decreasing.



Yes, but you must keep in mind the context of the collected data. The increase in tornadoes is almost entirely due to the increase in weak tornadoes (EF0) which cause almost no damage. This is also the rating given to tornadoes that are confirmed (in the sense that we have clear evidence that they existed) but cause no discernible damage. Decades ago, tornadoes like this would not have been recorded as often.
Quoting 450. Barefootontherocks:

Compared to what? Prior to the early-mid 1990s when the US government gave Nexrad to NWS as a tool?

Although the implementation of the national WSR-88D NEXRAD system can likely explain a substantial portion of the increase in EF0 and maybe EF1 tornado reports in the record, it would not similarly explain changes in violent tornadoes (EF4/5). By the time you reach a tornado of that magnitude, you do not need a radar to tell you that it is occurring. It's quite obvious.
Quoting 427. Sfloridacat5:



I don't see how he can come to that conclusion based on the data over the past 60 years.

For all we know next year might be a really busy year for tornadoes.



You have to be careful... the annual counts do not necessarily prove or disprove Elsner's conclusions. His study suggested that overall we may be having fewer tornadoes (which is quite possibly the case when one considers the EF0/1 reporting changes over time) but on days when we do have tornadoes, we have more, and they are perhaps on the stronger side.

We have a similar situation in hydrology. In some areas, rainfall averaged over an annual time scale is remaining constant or slightly decreasing. But when it does rain, the rain tends to be heavier. It's a trend toward rainfall happening in higher-end events. The annual data would also obscure this climatic trend, but when you look deeper, it's there. Be careful not to make the same conclusions with regards to tornadoes!
Quoting 435. sar2401:

The increasing number of tornadoes bears an almost 1:1 relationship with the increase in radar.

You really can't make that conclusion based upon the data you were referencing. The NEXRAD system was made operational over the 1992-1997 period. Since the original installation, only 3 radars have been added to fill in gaps.
Although there is a widely-understood increase in the detection of very weak tornadoes (mostly EF0) that is tied to NEXRAD, increase in population, and increase in storm spotters, there simply is not enough evidence to suggest a "1:1 relationship."
Quoting 437. sar2401:

Doesn't look like the latest version of the "polar vortex" makes it very far south or west though...
Good morning Sar. If this pattern sticks, Canada and the U.S. can expect a cold stormy fall and winter...This summer has been quite cool for some.
Quoting 456. ScottLincoln:


You really can't make that conclusion based upon the data you were referencing. The NEXRAD system was made operational over the 1992-1997 period. Since the original installation, only 3 radars have been added to fill in gaps.
Although there is a widely-understood increase in the detection of very weak tornadoes (mostly EF0) that is tied to NEXRAD, increase in population, and increase in storm spotters, there simply is not enough evidence to suggest a "1:1 relationship."
I would agree that a number of tornadoes went undetected until around 1970, and the majority of these missed in earlier times. One might think with the kinky jet steam the past few years, there would be more in the way of hot/cold air mass collisions or interaction, favoring the type of conditions needed to form tornadoes.
Quoting 457. hydrus:

Good morning Sar. If this pattern sticks, Canada and the U.S. can expect a cold stormy fall and winter...This summer has been quite cool for some.
Hydrus you've made me happier for the future.lol.
Quoting 455. ScottLincoln:


You have to be careful... the annual counts do not necessarily prove or disprove Elsner's conclusions. His study suggested that overall we may be having fewer tornadoes (which is quite possibly the case when one considers the EF0/1 reporting changes over time) but on days when we do have tornadoes, we have more, and they are perhaps on the stronger side.

We have a similar situation in hydrology. In some areas, rainfall averaged over an annual time scale is remaining constant or slightly decreasing. But when it does rain, the rain tends to be heavier. It's a trend toward rainfall happening in higher-end events. The annual data would also obscure this climatic trend, but when you look deeper, it's there. Be careful not to make the same conclusions with regards to tornadoes!


Have a lot of data sets to go through in order to be able to determine if that is really the case. The question would be if there are less tornado days, but on tornado days there would be more, what would be the dynamics to that. What could cause days with meager tornado conditions to produce less, but days with prime tornado conditions to produce more? It would take years of study and data breakdowns, so while it is a very interesting read it is basically pure speculation at this point.