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Tropical Storm Hilda Degenerating as it Approaches Hawaii

By: Jeff Masters 3:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2015

A Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Big Island of Hawaii as Tropical Storm Hilda heads northwest at 5 mph towards the islands. Hilda degraded significantly over the past day due to high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, but satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that the storm continued to generate a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its core. Shear will remain a high 25 - 40 knots through Friday, the surrounding atmosphere will grow increasingly dry, and sea surface temperatures will cool slightly, which should cause Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression by the time of its closet approach to Hawaii. The Wednesday morning runs of our two most reliable models for predicting hurricane tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed Hilda dissipating before making its closest approach to Hawaii on Thursday evening. However, even if Hilda dissipates before reaching Hawaii, it will still be capable of bringing heavy rains to the islands, particularly to the Big Island. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Public Advisory, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center cautioned that Hilda could bring 6 - 12" of rain, with isolated amounts up to 18". These amounts will likely only fall over ocean areas, since the center of Hilda is expected to pass about 150 miles south of the Big Island. The 2 am EDT (06Z) Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that the Big Island would see 2 - 4" of rain from Hilda, with the extreme southeast corner getting 4 - 8". Maui would get less than 1". I expect that the Big Island will receive maximum rainfall amounts of 3 - 6" from Hilda, with Maui getting 1 - 2".


Figure 1. When a hurricane unravels: high wind shear due to strong upper-level westerly winds on Tuesday, August 11, 2015, exposed the low level center of Hurricane Hilda to view. Hilda's heavy thunderstorms were all on the east side of the center of circulation in this MODIS satellite image from 5 pm EDT, when Hilda had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

In the Western Pacific, the European and GFS models predict that twin tropical storms will form in the waters midway between Hawaii and the Philippines' Luzon Island this weekend. Both of these storms will have the potential to cause trouble for Asia late next week. The twin storms will be close enough together that they could influence each other, making prediction of their track and intensity more difficult than usual.


Figure 2. Tracks of the 22 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 150 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2015. Hawaii has seen an unusual number of these storms (three) affect them in the past three years: Flossie (2013), Iselle (2014), and Guillermo (2015). Hilda (2015) may become the fourth such storm if it survives into Thursday night. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east has hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm that hit the Big Island, and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

An unusual amount of hurricane activity for Hawaii in recent years
An unusually high number of tropical storms and hurricane have roamed the waters near Hawaii over the past three years. This year, there has been Guillermo and Hilda, last year had Iselle and Julio, and 2013 had Flossie. Since 1949, 22 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) have passed within 150 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, an average of one tropical cyclone every three years. So, to have three tropical cyclones (four if we count Hilda) pass so close in three years (see Figure 2) is an unusual amount of activity. Part of the blame for the activity can be placed on unusually warm sea surface temperatures: these temperatures were warmest on record for the waters south and east of Hawaii this summer, and were also well above average in 2014. It is also possible that we are seeing the beginning of a shift in the tracks of the Eastern Pacific hurricanes due to climate change, though it is too early to say. In my August 2014 blog post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes, I reported on a study done last year which projected a doubling or tripling of the number of hurricanes affecting Hawaii by the end of the century, due to climate change.


Figure 3. Double trouble for Hawaii: True-color VIIRS image of Hurricane Iselle (left) and Tropical Storm Julio (right) approaching Hawaii, taken between 3 - 6 pm EDT August 5, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, and Julio had 65 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Hawaii's hurricane history
On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. Tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in the Hawaiian Islands. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands have received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only two tropical storms have hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island, and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island with sustained winds of 60 mph, causing $79 million in damage. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:

September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage. The filming of the original "Jurassic Park" was interrupted by Iniki.

November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii's most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.

August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I would like to think about moving to some place that will not be negatively affected by climate change, but as the old song goes, "There's no hiding place down here!"
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the update, Dr.

There's something about seeing exposed centers of circulation that just makes me feel kind of dirty...
Powerful westerly wind burst west of the Dateline.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/enso/tao-u wnd-5day/20150811.gif
Quoting 3. SLU:


Yeah I'll believe it when I see it.GFS showed two hurricanes in the MDR that were supposed be be active right now.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,

Who Sent Texas over here.....

Thanks for the update doc. I dont know about yall but im ready to fast forward to late October.
Quoting 7. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,

Who Sent Texas over here.....


I guess Texas just wanted to say hello.
Quoting 8. Storms306:

Thanks for the update doc. I dont know about yall but im ready to fast forward to late October.
Me too! Ready for Fall and then Winter!
Thanks Dr:

It is also possible that we are seeing the beginning of a shift in the tracks of the Eastern Pacific hurricanes due to climate change, though it is too early to say.

Agree that it is too early to establish a baseline (over the next few decades) for comparison in terms of climatological track issues, but we have certainly seen a growing number of E-Pac storms the past few years (including this current season) which naturally increases the chances of a storm potentially making it to the Hawaii region. The E-Pac (per a few papers) has not been studied in as much detail at the Atlantic and West-Pac tropical storms but with hotter SST's and the numbers, there will be lots more focus on this region and perhaps the impact of global warming on the Central American monsoon season/ITCZ region.
The little blob of convection over Eastern Chad, Western Sudan, and Central African Republic is the one the GFS develops. We'll see once it gets its feet wet in a couple of days when it emerges into the Eastern Atlantic.

Quoting 12. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The little blob of convection over Eastern Chad, Western Sudan, and Central African Republic is the one the GFS develops. We'll see once it gets its feet wet in a couple of days when it emerges into the Eastern Atlantic.


Certainly something to watch, but I am not going to really pay attention until we have a TD or named storm. The GFS has been playing the games too much.
 
      San Fernando Valley is as HOT and longer...
Quoting 14. PedleyCA:


San Fernado Valley is as HOT and longer...



Yep, all kinds of fun over here. But I enjoyed the relatively lower temps while we had 'em.
Quoting 14. PedleyCA:

%uFFFD
%uFFFD%uFFFD%uFFFD%uFFFD%uFFFD San Fernado Valley is as HOT and longer...



Hit 105 here in Austin, Texas yesterday. Have gone 42 consecutive days without rain. 103 forecast for today, with a 20% chance of a pop up storm. So far, I believe we have had 15 days above 100 this year, with all but 2 days above 100 this month (99 on those days). Certainly not unexpected here, but quite the contrast from this spring.

17. JRRP
Accuweather's Fall Forecast.

Quoting 16. tornadodude:



Hit 105 here in Austin, Texas yesterday. Have gone 42 consecutive days without rain. 103 forecast for today, with a 20% chance of a pop up storm. So far, I believe we have had 15 days above 100 this year, with all but 2 days above 100 this month (99 on those days).


  That is just extreme, this is the graphic I saw a few days ago, cooling off some there(soon).
Quoting 19. PedleyCA:


  That is just extreme, this is the graphic I saw a few days ago, cooling off some there(soon).



Hopefully! I think a bit of a pattern change is coming up next week.
If it doesn't rain today, we will likely be pushing 50 days in a row without. July had none, and so far none in August. I'm almost rooting for it not to rain. Almost. ha
Quoting 16. tornadodude:



Hit 105 here in Austin, Texas yesterday. Have gone 42 consecutive days without rain. 103 forecast for today, with a 20% chance of a pop up storm. So far, I believe we have had 15 days above 100 this year, with all but 2 days above 100 this month (99 on those days). Certainly not unexpected here, but quite the contrast from this spring.




I got lucky yesterday evening in the Houston area. My yard was starting to dry out and suffer from the heat. I received between 1" - 1 1/2" rain when a fairly strong thunder storm moved through. The yard got some good rain and the temps dropped by about 20 degrees. I hope that more of these storms are on the way.
Quoting 19. PedleyCA:


  That is just extreme, this is the graphic I saw a few days ago, cooling off some there(soon).


May be extreme but fairly normal. This is a dramatic drop in the number of 100+ days we've had over the past few years. After a wet spring and an increased likelihood of a wet Fall and winter this is not to bad a price to pay.
from last blog

the CFSv2 update for tusday 12z seem like they update ever other day from the site i get them from

here what they have for CA and ever one else

it now has a 50/50 for SEP




A 50/50 for OCT




A dryer then norml NOV





now this is new for the CFSv2 it may be at last could be seeing that now we have a strong EL nino in place

A wet too vary wet DEC




A vary vary wet JAN




A wet FEB




A wet too vary wet MAR




A wet APR wish could all so mean a high risk of tornado in the mid W





A 50/50 for MAY



and thats it in tell the next update
all so from last blog

Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:



Yikes. 2 Monsters side by side. That set up should effect the weather pattern across the US in the long term especially if one of them recurves.



the GFS seems too be picking up some in for CA maybe the 1st storm of the season i no long ways out but still it has not drop this idea


this was the 18z from tusday





here is the 00z looks like the same storm but even stronger and wetter





now here the 06z now this would be a rare set up on this happens



it has a a sub 1000mb low and its a vary wet storm but look where its at
Quoting 1. lhwhelk:

I would like to think about moving to some place that will not be negatively affected by climate change, but as the old song goes, "There's no hiding place down here!"


I remember a bumper sticker in Minneapolis years ago

"Minnesotans for Global Warming"

Since people are (reasonably and of interest) going off topic about heat, I'll just post my annual warm fall threshold test in DC

I plant Silver Queen sweetcorn seeds August 1. In a warm fall it makes a crop.. just barely.
Most years it doesn't quite make it whereas July 25 planted corn is reliable.

The only year it solidly cropped was 2007. 2010 should have made it but had other issues and other years were seasonably cold too early.
Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:

Since people are (reasonably and of interest) going off topic about heat, I'll just post my annual warm fall threshold test in DC

I plant Silver Queen sweetcorn seeds August 1. In a warm fall it makes a crop.. just barely.
Most years it doesn't quite make it whereas July 25 planted corn is reliable.

The only year it solidly cropped was 2007. 2010 should have made it but had other issues and other years were seasonably cold too early.


It could get cold early for you guys and for Accuweather to go out on a limb and say its going to be a warm Fall just doesn't seem right given what we've seen so far this Summer with numerous cool snaps across the Northern US. A lot of this is due to strong Typhoons recurving causing the trough to buckle over the US. Infact its possible we might get 2 Super Typhoons recurving next week and that could really open up the Mother Load of cool air to come south Late August/Early September.

Infact most of what Accuweather is forecasting I don't agree with in its Fall update. Winter looks fine but their Fall forecast seems suspect given the pattern thus far.
29. JRRP
So, to have three tropical cyclones (four if we count Hilda) pass so close in three years

What about Hurricane Ana last year too? It came very close to Hawaii:

Quoting 3. SLU:


maybe something to watch next week
Quoting 3. SLU:



some very nice showers here last night and into today.
maybe 1/2'' in total.
looking forward to more !!
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

PULSING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF HILDA
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. DATA FROM THE LAST PASSES
THROUGH HILDA BY U.S. AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
VALUES FROM HFO AND JTWC CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND SAB HAD A 2.5/35
KT...WITH CIMSS ADT SUGGESTING 37 KT. A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS IN
LINE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA...AND GIVEN THE PULSING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND CONTINUED PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA...A 0756 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND NEARBY NOAA BUOY
51004 OBSERVATIONS WERE USED TO FINE TUNE A REDUCTION IN THE WIND
AND SEAS RADII.

HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR TO BE NEARLY 40 KT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS ICON CLOSELY AND
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKENING TREND THAN SHIPS AND LGEM.
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HILDA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM...ENSURING A SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT...WHILE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF
HAWAII IS GENERATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS. U.S. AIR
FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FOUND HILDA MAKING A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 305 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS HILDA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PAST ADVISORY AND
RUNS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
Come on GFS just please give us a 2 week window to track something before the Season goes POOF.

Jamstec DJF Surface Temperature Anomaly update:

Next year looks very favorable for tropical systems to materialize across the MDR. Could come out the gate fast next year too given this.



Just for information....
Trinidad & Tobago radar is available at ''metoffice.gov.tt'' if anyone is interested.
I may come out the gate hard for the 2016 Hurricane Season. How is the for a early early prediction 15 named storms 9 hurricanes & 5 majors.

US might be in trouble next year. Enjoy the off year this year because next year looks beastly.

Last week took a trip out to far west Texas and stopped at Balmorhea State Park to swim in the natural spring fed pool they have there. 72 degF water year around, it sure felt good in the 107 degF heat. I was reminded I wasn't on the gulf coast when I got out and felt 50 degF on my skin.

Spoke with the rangers there and they said the water flow was around 12 million gal/day from the artesian springs. 25 years ago the flow was averaging 15 million gal/day. 40 years ago the average was 18 million gal/day. The rate drop is attributed to the drop in precipitation that falls over the Davis Mountains which has been dwindling back for a long time now.

Guadalupe National Park was pleasant. Like clockwork each day, towers build and some rain passes by wetting the parched ground thanks to a theta-e axis in the area.

Monahans Sandhills state park was really hot. 110 degF in the dunes and no breeze. The quest for survival for all organisms is extremely pronounced. Thousands of wasps swarmed the camper looking for water. The asphalt was sticking to the camper tires. Even the sandhills were shallow by comparison from our past November visit b/c of the lack of moisture in the sand preventing it from sticking and building dune height.

Junction, Texas residents told me no rain for 49 straight days (51 today). So dry the bedrock is cracking like south Texas gumbo.

Returned back to the Lake Jackson, Texas area and found my lawn had a striking appearance to a yard covered in rice crispy cereal. Dried, brown, blistered, and shriveled grass. Yesterday's t-storms that rolled thru the Houston metropolitan area missed the Brazosport area completely; what a terrible tease that was. I saw a kid sprain their ankle across the street b/c of the huge crack in the gumbo was hidden under a blanket of parched grass.

Now it is the season for broken water lines. As soon as some light rain falls we will begin seeing water line breaks all over the area in many front yards.

I recall other dry years but this is certainly an extreme of extremes we are witnessing going from such a wet to a dry pattern instantly.
Quoting 17. JRRP:


Nothing getting here anytime soon.
Well you guys said Scott what will you talk about once El-Nino is over well I see the light @ the end of the tunnel and I like what I see for the 2016 Hurricane Season with what could be neutral conditions across the Pacific . Still a long ways away but it could be the most interesting season since the 2004/2005 & 2008 hurricane seasons
Quoting 41. Gearsts:

Nothing forming getting here anytime soon.


Doesn't look good going forward Gearst. Atmosphere is really locked into El-Nino.
44. vis0
image host
45. JRRP
Quoting 41. Gearsts:

Nothing forming getting here anytime soon.

I don't know what kind of cyclone could form in that conditions

GFS is lying
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

Well you guys said Scott what will you talk about once El-Nino is over well I see the light @ the end of the tunnel and I like what I see for the 2016 Hurricane Season with what could be neutral conditions across the Pacific . Still a long ways away but it could be the most interesting season since the 2004/2005 & 2008 hurricane seasons
2010
Quoting 46. Gearsts:

2010


2010 had a lot of recurves though.
From this:

To this:
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:



It could get cold early for you guys and for Accuweather to go out on a limb and say its going to be a warm Fall just doesn't seem right given what we've seen so far this Summer with numerous cool snaps across the Northern US. A lot of this is due to strong Typhoons recurving causing the trough to buckle over the US. Infact its possible we might get 2 Super Typhoons recurving next week and that could really open up the Mother Load of cool air to come south Late August/Early September.

Infact most of what Accuweather is forecasting I don't agree with in its Fall update. Winter looks fine but their Fall forecast seems suspect given the pattern thus far.
Roughly the eastern third of the U.S. will be cold and stormy...jmo
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:



2010 had a lot of recurves though.
Scott i really don't care, i just want something to track.


Quoting 40. DellOperator:

I recall other dry years but this is certainly an extreme of extremes we are witnessing going from such a wet to a dry pattern instantly.


Yup, no kidding. In Dallas / Fort Worth, Corp controlled lakes are still in Flood Pool, and we are ranked 6th for days with no precipitation (at the airport).

Poof
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:



It could get cold early for you guys and for Accuweather to go out on a limb and say its going to be a warm Fall just doesn't seem right given what we've seen so far this Summer with numerous cool snaps across the Northern US. A lot of this is due to strong Typhoons recurving causing the trough to buckle over the US. Infact its possible we might get 2 Super Typhoons recurving next week and that could really open up the Mother Load of cool air to come south Late August/Early September.

Infact most of what Accuweather is forecasting I don't agree with in its Fall update. Winter looks fine but their Fall forecast seems suspect given the pattern thus far.


The analog year in my nightmares is 1976. So far not verifying (that cold pattern locked in in August and really really stayed locked until February)

To reinforce the nightmare.. Jan 2016 probably wetter than January 1977.

This is a nightmare..hopefully not reality.

WTH look at this forecast.
Not weather related, but there was a large fire and a massive explosion at an oil storage facility in Tianjin, a city of 8 million just southeast of Beijing. News reports say hundreds--or possibly thousands--have been injured.




More video here

...and here.

Yikes...
The August update on the Jamstec peaks @ 2.7C. With this last update from the 1 remaining model the mean on all models is 2.6C to 3.0C for Nino 3.4. Unprecedented if this were to occur.

Peak on the Jamstec appears to happen in October.



Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:

I may come out the gate hard for the 2016 Hurricane Season. How is the for a early early prediction 15 named storms 9 hurricanes & 5 majors.

US might be in trouble next year. Enjoy the off year this year because next year looks beastly.




Can we get through this hurricane season and the fall/winter to see what the impacts are first of El Niño before forecasting next years hurricane season?
I see a spin over Saudi Arabia,but too much dry air in the area.
Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:



Can we get through this hurricane season and the fall/winter to see what the impacts are first of El Niño before forecasting next years hurricane season?


There's nothing to get thru.
Quoting 45. JRRP:


I don't know what kind of cyclone could form in that conditions

GFS is lying
We need a ghostbuster
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 54. Gearsts:

WTH look at this forecast.

What do you mean?



wow 30% and 90%
area.north.of.capeverde.islands
Quoting 55. hydrus:




Not sure what is up with the WPC, the GFS and ecmwf have been trending up with precip for this area the last few days and both models have a consensus on heavier rain for this area than their current forecast. Then again, they had 0 qpf over Central FL last Saturday at mid day, lol.


The good news is, both the ecmwf and the GFS have consistently showed heavy rains for all of south FL with this upcoming pattern change.
Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:


Can we get through this hurricane season and the fall/winter to see what the impacts are first of El Niño before forecasting next years hurricane season?


I am beginning to believe this hurricane season has already subsided. I hope I am wrong though and look forward to some action somewhere in the vast Atlantic basin.
Hi Scott. It is late but I am revising my forecast of storms; from 10 to 6 (with any luck).
Quoting 68. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Scott. It is late but I am revising my forecast of storms; from 10 to 6 (with any luck).



Next year I'm going all in 15 8 6. High ACE with lots of impacts across the Caribbean & US. Enjoy the break folks as next year looks interesting. The year S FL gets back to 70 plus inches a rain a year.
Good Morning Class! Getting warmer.......may get to 100 today.



Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 12 Aug 11:49 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 12 Aug 11:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
12 Aug 11:40 am PDT 92 38 15 SSE 10G22 OK
Quoting 40. DellOperator:

Last week took a trip out to far west Texas and stopped at Balmorhea State Park to swim in the natural spring fed pool they have there. 72 degF water year around, it sure felt good in the 107 degF heat. I was reminded I wasn't on the gulf coast when I got out and felt 50 degF on my skin.

Spoke with the rangers there and they said the water flow was around 12 million gal/day from the artesian springs. 25 years ago the flow was averaging 15 million gal/day. 40 years ago the average was 18 million gal/day. The rate drop is attributed to the drop in precipitation that falls over the Davis Mountains which has been dwindling back for a long time now.

Guadalupe National Park was pleasant. Like clockwork each day, towers build and some rain passes by wetting the parched ground thanks to a theta-e axis in the area.

Monahans Sandhills state park was really hot. 110 degF in the dunes and no breeze. The quest for survival for all organisms is extremely pronounced. Thousands of wasps swarmed the camper looking for water. The asphalt was sticking to the camper tires. Even the sandhills were shallow by comparison from our past November visit b/c of the lack of moisture in the sand preventing it from sticking and building dune height.

Junction, Texas residents told me no rain for 49 straight days (51 today). So dry the bedrock is cracking like south Texas gumbo.

Returned back to the Lake Jackson, Texas area and found my lawn had a striking appearance to a yard covered in rice crispy cereal. Dried, brown, blistered, and shriveled grass. Yesterday's t-storms that rolled thru the Houston metropolitan area missed the Brazosport area completely; what a terrible tease that was. I saw a kid sprain their ankle across the street b/c of the huge crack in the gumbo was hidden under a blanket of parched grass.

Now it is the season for broken water lines. As soon as some light rain falls we will begin seeing water line breaks all over the area in many front yards.

I recall other dry years but this is certainly an extreme of extremes we are witnessing going from such a wet to a dry pattern instantly.


Mid Atlantic season for broken mains is winter. They DONT freeze but the soil well above them freezes perhaps a foot thick turning it into a drumhead which then creates vibrations that can stress the mains.


Hi Scott. It is late but I am revising my forecast of storms; from 10 to 6 (with any luck).

This guy never fails.
Quoting 66. Jedkins01:



Not sure what is up with the WPC, the GFS and ecmwf have been trending up with precip for this area the last few days and both models have a consensus on heavier rain for this area than their current forecast. Then again, they had 0 qpf over Central FL last Saturday at mid day, lol.


The good news is, both the ecmwf and the GFS have consistently showed heavy rains for all of south FL with this upcoming pattern change.


Yeah Euro & GFS look wet thru the end of August actually.

Quoting 68. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Scott. It is late but I am revising my forecast of storms; from 10 to 6 (with any luck).

Are you a forecaster?
Quoting 69. StormTrackerScott:



Next year I'm going all in 15 8 6. High ACE with lots of impacts across the Caribbean & US. Enjoy the break folks as next year looks interesting. The year S FL gets back to 70 plus inches a rain a year.
Wow.....a forecast for next year,that is really amazing.
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:



It could get cold early for you guys and for Accuweather to go out on a limb and say its going to be a warm Fall just doesn't seem right given what we've seen so far this Summer with numerous cool snaps across the Northern US. A lot of this is due to strong Typhoons recurving causing the trough to buckle over the US. Infact its possible we might get 2 Super Typhoons recurving next week and that could really open up the Mother Load of cool air to come south Late August/Early September.

Infact most of what Accuweather is forecasting I don't agree with in its Fall update. Winter looks fine but their Fall forecast seems suspect given the pattern thus far.


So far heat is the (not uncommon) problem.

I like fall peas. Peas don't like heat and are frost tender (pods and blossoms ). I plant these last week in July and hope for the best. I need cool weather in August and warm weather in late October for a good crop. 2013 and 2014 delivered on this esp Aug cool spells. So far not 2015 and it looks bad for the next fortnight.

Quoting 56. Neapolitan:

Not weather related, but there was a large fire and a massive explosion at an oil storage facility in Tianjin, a city of 8 million just southeast of Beijing. News reports say hundreds--or possibly thousands--have been injured.




More video here

...and here.

Yikes...


Explosion was so large infared sat caught it.

The 12z ECMWF is only slightly less bullish than the GFS, showing an upper-end Category 4 cyclone and a Category 5 system ongoing simultaneously in the West Pacific next week:

Quoting 55. hydrus:




A !little sliver of dark green at my locale on the map here in Sooo Cal........Yea, Yea, that's the ticket! 1"-1 1/2" will do nicely.....should it come to fruition.
Quoting 79. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z ECMWF is only slightly less bullish than the GFS, showing an upper-end Category 4 cyclone and a Category 5 system ongoing simultaneously in the West Pacific next week:




Poor Taiwan again huh?
Quoting 38. pottery:

Just for information....
Trinidad & Tobago radar is available at ''metoffice.gov.tt'' if anyone is interested.
The Met Office has done a nice job with the site in general, and with the radar presentation in particular. It's easily the best in the Caribbean, and it seems like other countries in the neighborhood could take some lessons from it. Looks like things have been pleasantly warm and damp for you, something I can't say for me.
Quoting 77. VAbeachhurricanes:



Explosion was so large infared sat caught it.




WOW! Looked like the proverbial mushroom cloud!
This is great:Link
When you forecast the weather, as you will find through much of your life, you need to learn how to be wrong. A lot. And not only that, but you need to learn how to be wrong with grace and humility and harbor a sincere willingness to learn from your mistakes. Meteorology is a discipline that will shatter your ego and dance a jig of glee on its tiny remnants.
Quoting 66. Jedkins01:



Not sure what is up with the WPC, the GFS and ecmwf have been trending up with precip for this area the last few days and both models have a consensus on heavier rain for this area than their current forecast. Then again, they had 0 qpf over Central FL last Saturday at mid day, lol.


The good news is, both the ecmwf and the GFS have consistently showed heavy rains for all of south FL with this upcoming pattern change.


Have you seen the newest QPF from the WPC? They essentially show about an inch of rain total for the Tampa Bay area from Thursday through Saturday. Something tells me that won't verify. The HRRR model is already showing very heavy rains building in the Gulf overnight in its most recent runs.


The two boys in the background are the eastern and western pacific.The boy in focus is the Atlantic.Describes this years hurricane season across the northern hemisphere.
Quoting 77. VAbeachhurricanes:



Explosion was so large infared sat caught it.





That's some kinda nice piece of equipment that Himawari 8 is!
Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:



Can we get through this hurricane season and the fall/winter to see what the impacts are first of El Niño before forecasting next years hurricane season?
Seems like every year where it's not roaring by mid-August means the season is over and we might as well pack up and go home and start making predictions for next year. Then September comes and everyone comes running back into the room. This season is not over. I don't know how many storms we'll have but it will be more than zero. Seems like we've lost the little thing that used to be called "patience".
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



There's nothing to get thru.


There's a reason the season ends November 30th though. I looked at El Nino years with August-September-October Nino 3.4 anomalies of 1C or greater and these happened:

Hurricane Flora 1963 (Category 4, over 7,000 deaths, affected many Caribbean islands and did over $500 million in damage - which equates to ~$4 Billion today).

Hurricane Carrie 1957 (Category 4, ACE of over 60)

Hurricane Emily 1987 (Cateogory 3, affected islands in the Caribbean)

Hurricane Erika 1997 (Category 3, affected eastern Caribbean)

Hurricane Isodore 2002 (Category 3, $1.3 billion in damage)

Hurricane Lili 2002 (Category 4, ~$1 billion in damage)

Those are just the majors. Even a tropical storm or hurricane can prove problematic under the right conditions. As the saying goes, "It only takes one".
Quoting 84. Gearsts:

This is great:Link
When you forecast the weather, as you will find through much of your life, you need to learn how to be wrong. A lot. And not only that, but you need to learn how to be wrong with grace and humility and harbor a sincere willingness to learn from your mistakes. Meteorology is a discipline that will shatter your ego and dance a jig of glee on its tiny remnants.


And the fact that a large percentage of "meteorologists" you see on T.V. don't have four year degrees in meteorology. They get an add-on certificate in meteorology with their four year degree in broadcasting or related field.
Quoting 69. StormTrackerScott:



Next year I'm going all in 15 8 6. High ACE with lots of impacts across the Caribbean & US. Enjoy the break folks as next year looks interesting. The year S FL gets back to 70 plus inches a rain a year.
2013 is a good example on how fast things can change in the Atlantic.

Total storms 14
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 0
Quoting 91. Gearsts:

2013 is a good example on how fast things can change in the Atlantic.

Total storms 14
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 0

probably the biggest anomaly there has been for a hurricane season with a cool biased enso. incredible how weak the atlantic was that season
Quoting 88. sar2401:

Seems like every year where it's not roaring by mid-August means the season is over and we might as well pack up and go home and start making predictions for next year. Then September comes and everyone comes running back into the room. This season is not over. I don't know how many storms we'll have but it will be more than zero. Seems like we've lost the little thing that used to be called "patience".


The analog in winter is to declare the winter snow season a bust somewhere around Christmas because there hasn't been any snow yet.
Videos show shock of explosion heard 3-9 seconds after flash in most videos. That corresponds to a distance of 1-3 km. the closer videos, it's possible the people did not survive the explosion...

I have some extended family and relatives in Tianjin. I visited this city at least once. Very nice place, but I don't remember much anything.

Quoting 56. Neapolitan:

Not weather related, but there was a large fire and a massive explosion at an oil storage facility in Tianjin, a city of 8 million just southeast of Beijing. News reports say hundreds--or possibly thousands--have been injured.




More video here

...and here.

Yikes...
Quoting 77. VAbeachhurricanes:



Explosion was so large infared sat caught it.


I'm not sure what's really happening at Tianjin City, and the Chinese will only let us know what they want us to know, but that looks like explosives, not some oil tanks. There's very little made by man that can produce multiple detonations of that size other than stored ammunition/explosives. Tianjin is a province directly controlled by the PRC central government, and it's long been thought by western military analysts that the Tianjin Export Processing Zone is in part a ruse to cover a large People's Revolutionary Army weapons export facility.
Quoting 94. AstroHurricane001:

Videos show shock of explosion heard 3-9 seconds after flash in most videos. That corresponds to a distance of 1-3 km. the closer videos, it's possible the people did not survive the explosion...

I have some extended family and relatives in Tianjin. I visited this city at least once. Very nice place, but I don't remember much anything.




And the worse thing is, some of those videos show what look like "fireworks" shooting off the side. Those land on other parts of the city, setting trees, cars, houses, or people on fire. Even one of those "ejects" landing on a place can kill people. There were hundreds of those sparks shooting off from one of the explosions.
I hope it rains today. Big dead spots showing up in my yard. It's been unusually dry here in S.W. Florida this month.
It is premature to determine for sure (especially the way the rainfall has been this summer so far), but it looks like we might actually get some rain today! Storms (most not that robust, but I will take what I can get) are developing in every direction from the Orlando area, and those to the west of us may give us a much needed drenching, if they hold together.

Yesterday was notably hot in Orlando, with a high of 97F at the Exec Airport. Also, the humidity was unusually low in the early to mid afternoon hours, dropping below 40% for at least 2 hours.

Quoting 70. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Good Morning Class! Getting warmer.......may get to 100 today.



Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 12 Aug 11:49 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 12 Aug 11:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
12 Aug 11:40 am PDT 92 38 15 SSE 10G22 OK
   I have 84.8F here and it is going up real slow, forecast here is 98F, might not make it....
Quoting 98. HurrMichaelOrl:

It is premature to determine for sure (especially the way the rainfall has been this summer so far), but it looks like we might actually get some rain today! Storms (most not that robust, but I will take what I can get) are developing in every direction from the Orlando area, and those to the west of us may give us a much needed drenching, if they hold together.

Yesterday was notably hot in Orlando, with a high of 97F at the Exec Airport. Also, the humidity was unusually low in the early to mid afternoon hours, dropping below 40% for at least 2 hours.


No rain since August 3rd @ my location. Getting dry fast especially after the 98 yesterday and 96 so far today.
Quoting 95. sar2401:

I'm not sure what's really happening at Tianjin City, and the Chinese will only let us know what they want us to know, but that looks like explosives, not some oil tanks. There's very little made by man that can produce multiple detonations of that size other than stored ammunition/explosives. Tianjin is a province directly controlled by the PRC central government, and it's long been thought by western military analysts that the Tianjin Export Processing Zone is in part a ruse to cover a large People's Revolutionary Army weapons export facility.
Could be all that. Or it could just be a very unfortunate accident caused by improper storage and/or handling of volatile chemicals.

The confirmed death toll is seven, while at least 300 have been brought into a hospital. Reporters are being kept back 10 kilometers due to the collapse of explosion-damaged buildings.
Quoting 95. sar2401:

I'm not sure what's really happening at Tianjin City, and the Chinese will only let us know what they want us to know, but that looks like explosives, not some oil tanks. There's very little made by man that can produce multiple detonations of that size other than stored ammunition/explosives. Tianjin is a province directly controlled by the PRC central government, and it's long been thought by western military analysts that the Tianjin Export Processing Zone is in part a ruse to cover a large People's Revolutionary Army weapons export facility.



According to the BBC, the Xinhua News Agency confirmed that it was explosives.
Quoting 105. OviedoWatcher:




According to the BBC, the Xinhua News Agency confirmed that it was explosives.


Any word what type or if it was planted.
3 of the global models are showing tropical mischief in the tropical central atlantic during the middle of next week.
Quoting 96. AstroHurricane001:



And the worse thing is, some of those videos show what look like "fireworks" shooting off the side. Those land on other parts of the city, setting trees, cars, houses, or people on fire. Even one of those "ejects" landing on a place can kill people. There were hundreds of those sparks shooting off from one of the explosions.
Those "fireworks" shooting off from the sides of the main fireball are another thing that makes me think this is an explosives detonation. If this is where I think it is, the only people at risk are going to be the firefighters and other first responders, but the secondary detonations will surely set off other explosions and fires.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Those "fireworks" shooting off from the sides of the main fireball are another thing that makes me think this is an explosives detonation. If this is where I think it is, the only people at risk are going to be the firefighters and other first responders, but the secondary detonations will surely set off other explosions and fires.


Fits the bill Sar to what they (ISIS) said they were going to target and that is people in uniform.
Quoting 105. OviedoWatcher:




According to the BBC, the Xinhua News Agency confirmed that it was explosives.
Ah, thanks, I hadn't read that yet. There's also a chance this is a fireworks plant or storage area, but it would have to be one heck of a fireworks stockpile to set off those kinds of explosions.
the report on the BBC says a shipment of explosives exploded ..

and before all the rumors keep spreading .. lets see what the news wires have to say !!

EDIT : The Editor of the BBC's Chinese Service, Raymond Li, says all indications are that it is an industrial accident.
Quoting 98. HurrMichaelOrl:

It is premature to determine for sure (especially the way the rainfall has been this summer so far), but it looks like we might actually get some rain today! Storms (most not that robust, but I will take what I can get) are developing in every direction from the Orlando area, and those to the west of us may give us a much needed drenching, if they hold together.

Yesterday was notably hot in Orlando, with a high of 97F at the Exec Airport. Also, the humidity was unusually low in the early to mid afternoon hours, dropping below 40% for at least 2 hours.
Looks pretty scattered on radar, but the storms that have formed look reasonably healthy, so you just have to hope one of them passes over you. I know from personal experience how irritating it is watching a nice storm come right at you and then have it miss by an inch.
113. ariot
Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:



Looks terrorist related. Was watching a youtube video of the explosion and someone was praising victory for Islam. Going to interesting hearing this story as the explosion happened inside a storage container and not related to oil. Seems as if the explosion was deliberate.


Thankfully your posts about weather are better than your posts about explosions.

Let's apply reason. Forensics takes time. First preserve life, treat wounded and secure the area.

This abject fear of the unknown is not healthy for anyone.
Quoting 111. whitewabit:

the report on the BBC says a shipment of explosives exploded ..

and before all the rumors keep spreading .. lets see what the news wires have to say !!
Never mind. I see the rumor you're talking about now...
Quoting 113. ariot:



Thankfully your posts about weather are better than your posts about explosions.

Let's apply reason. Forensics takes time. First preserve life, treat wounded and secure the area.

This abject fear of the unknown is not healthy for anyone.
YouTube has now become a source of truth. Good heavens.
The Editor of the BBC's Chinese Service, Raymond Li, says all indications are that it is an industrial accident.
explosives=scare.birds
Quoting 85. tampabaymatt:



Have you seen the newest QPF from the WPC? They essentially show about an inch of rain total for the Tampa Bay area from Thursday through Saturday. Something tells me that won't verify. The HRRR model is already showing very heavy rains building in the Gulf overnight in its most recent runs.

Yeah it's a joke, I give about a 90% chance that far more rain will fall. Literally, it's laughable, where are they getting those values from? model guidance is well above their forecast. It just doesn't make sense. The local NWS office in Ruskin I noticed definitely also disagrees, they are going with a much wetter forecast.
Quoting 111. whitewabit:

the report on the BBC says a shipment of explosives exploded ..

and before all the rumors keep spreading .. lets see what the news wires have to say !!

EDIT : The Editor of the BBC's Chinese Service, Raymond Li, says all indications are that it is an industrial accident.
Assuming the industry had something to do with explosives, I'd agree.
The explosion occurred at the port facilities run by Tianjin Dongjiang Port Rui Hai International Logisitcs Co., Ltd., a firm licensed to transport, among many other items, explosives and other dangerous/hazardous goods. Very likely just an accident. No terrorism; no ISIS/ISIL; no sinister commie plot, no YouTube videos posted by shadowy, swarthy Middle-Easterners.
Quoting 119. sar2401:

Assuming the industry had something to do with explosives, I'd agree.


It happened at the port so whether they were made there or not wouldn't matter ..

There was a massive explosion in the US during WWII in California if I remember my history .. caused when a ship with explosives ignited ..
Quoting 84. Gearsts:

This is great:Link
When you forecast the weather, as you will find through much of your life, you need to learn how to be wrong. A lot. And not only that, but you need to learn how to be wrong with grace and humility and harbor a sincere willingness to learn from your mistakes. Meteorology is a discipline that will shatter your ego and dance a jig of glee on its tiny remnants.


Thanks for the link, good article. After my visits to the University library I only can support his view here. The mathematics are really important in this science.

But thanks also because I have never visited this site and it looks interesting. Here a video from the 720ton damper inside Taipei 101 skyscraper during Typhoon Soudelor featured in this article:

">

Incredible motion and shows what force a typhoon yields.
Quoting 121. Neapolitan:

The explosion occurred at the port facilities run by Tianjin Dongjiang Port Rui Hai International Logisitcs Co., Ltd., a firm licensed to transport, among many other items, explosives and other dangerous/hazardous goods. Very likely just an accident. No terrorism; no ISIS/ISIL; no sinister commie plot, no YouTube videos posted by shadowy, swarthy Middle-Easterners.
News reported that a ship carrying explosive material may have been the cause...Looked terrible. I hope there are no fatalities. We had deadly ship explosion here in the U.S. in 1947. 581 deaths and over 5000 injured....Link
Quoting 118. Jedkins01:


Yeah it's a joke, I give about a 90% chance that far more rain will fall. Literally, it's laughable, where are they getting those values from? model guidance is well above their forecast. It just doesn't make sense. The local NWS office in Ruskin I noticed definitely also disagrees, they are going with a much wetter forecast.


Has Ruskin put out a QPF? They have been for the past stalled trough events, but I haven't seen one for this one yet. By the way, you're right about Brian Lamarre. He welcomed my wife and one of her visually impaired students with open arms to the Ruskin office recently. He let the student help with the weather balloon launch and sat with her for a while and answered all sorts of questions, during their busiest time nonetheless. A total class act and true professional.
Quoting 94. AstroHurricane001:

Videos show shock of explosion heard 3-9 seconds after flash in most videos. That corresponds to a distance of 1-3 km. the closer videos, it's possible the people did not survive the explosion...

I have some extended family and relatives in Tianjin. I visited this city at least once. Very nice place, but I don't remember much anything.



That is most definitely not an "oil tank" exploding... that is definitely explosives, or something with a very fast detonation velocity.
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HILDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 152.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.0 WEST. HILDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BUOY 51004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 38
MPH...61 KM/H GUSTING TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILDA WILL PRODUCE
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES OF PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
DAY.

RAINFALL...HILDA MAY PRODUCE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS
PATH. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

PULSING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF HILDA
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. DATA FROM THE LAST PASSES
THROUGH HILDA BY U.S. AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
VALUES FROM HFO AND JTWC CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND SAB HAD A 2.5/35
KT...WITH CIMSS ADT SUGGESTING 37 KT. A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS IN
LINE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA...AND GIVEN THE PULSING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND CONTINUED PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA...A 0756 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND NEARBY NOAA BUOY
51004 OBSERVATIONS WERE USED TO FINE TUNE A REDUCTION IN THE WIND
AND SEAS RADII.

HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR TO BE NEARLY 40 KT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS ICON CLOSELY AND
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKENING TREND THAN SHIPS AND LGEM.
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HILDA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM...ENSURING A SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT...WHILE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF
HAWAII IS GENERATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS. U.S. AIR
FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FOUND HILDA MAKING A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 305 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS HILDA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PAST ADVISORY AND
RUNS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.5N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.6N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.6N 153.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.4N 156.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 121. Neapolitan:

The explosion occurred at the port facilities run by Tianjin Dongjiang Port Rui Hai International Logisitcs Co., Ltd., a firm licensed to transport, among many other items, explosives and other dangerous/hazardous goods. Very likely just an accident. No terrorism; no ISIS/ISIL; no sinister commie plot, no YouTube videos posted by shadowy, swarthy Middle-Easterners.

Live coverage in English: http://www.cctv-america.com/livestream/
Well, sometimes.


hot weather in the northeast coming back
I wonder what the Hurricane Hunters are doing to pass the time. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe they've been sent out at all this season.
Quoting 134. tampabaymatt:

I wonder what the Hurricane Hunters are doing to pass the time. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe they've been sent out at all this season.


They investigated Tropical Storms Ana/Bill and Claudette plus eastern pacific systems Guillermo, Hilda and I think Dolores.
Quoting 134. tampabaymatt:

I wonder what the Hurricane Hunters are doing to pass the time. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe they've been sent out at all this season.


They flew into HIlda today
Quoting 135. Envoirment:



They investigated Tropical Storms Ana/Bill and Claudette plus eastern pacific systems Guillermo, Hilda and I think Dolores.


Didn't know they went into E PAC storms. Interesting.
Getting ready to head home. Most of the action is in the Pacific this year as is typical during a stronger El Nino event with the storm suppression on the Atlantic side of things. As noted last week by CSU, the prospective numbers have been dropped and the Central Atlantic is a graveyard at the moment. The typical summer "wave switch" has not been thrown yet by Mother Nature in the Atlantic and there is very little in the way of moisture out there to offset the dry air. It might be 2-3 weeks out before we see some development from any waves (if at all).

Everyone have a safe weather evening.


Information obtained through July 2015 indicates that the remainder of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season will be much less active than the average 1981-2010 season. 
We estimate that the remainder of 2015 will have about 2 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 5
named storms (average is 10.5), 19.5 named storm days (average is 58), 8 hurricane days 
(average is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (average is 2.0) and 0.5 major
hurricane days (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and 
Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2015 season is estimated to 
be well below its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin
hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity approximately 35
percent of the seasonal average. We have maintained our below-average seasonal 
forecast, primarily due to a strong El Niño that is now firmly entrenched in the tropical 
Pacific. In addition, vertical wind shear during July was at record high levels in the 
Caribbean.


Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:



Didn't know they went into E PAC storms. Interesting.


Well I think it's mainly when a storm threatens Hawaii.
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

Well you guys said Scott what will you talk about once El-Nino is over well I see the light @ the end of the tunnel and I like what I see for the 2016 Hurricane Season with what could be neutral conditions across the Pacific . Still a long ways away but it could be the most interesting season since the 2004/2005 & 2008 hurricane seasons


check this storm out this one be nuts for CA for so early in the season this is the 12z by the way

Quoting 128. jeffs713:

That is most definitely not an "oil tank" exploding... that is definitely explosives, or something with a very fast detonation velocity.

they say only seven dead...after seeing those videos?

Really?

And China doesn't have a smog problem either, they say...
I am VERY interested in ANY half baked theories as to how this could be caused by the Super El Nino.
I miss our old fashioned hurricane seasons.
Quoting 143. aquak9:


they say only seven dead...after seeing those videos?

Really?

And China doesn't have a smog problem either, they say...


So far. They aren't going to find all of the dead right away, especially given that there's a lot of debri/potentially dangerous buildings that may collapse (Journalists are only allowed as close as 10km to the blast site due to the potential of collapsing buildings around the blast zone). Plus some people may die in hospital due to their injuries. Hopefully the death toll remains small. Really quite a tragic scene, especially some of the pictures and videos that are coming out.



look at the wind shear here poor tropical storm
Quoting 143. aquak9:


they say only seven dead...after seeing those videos?

Really?

And China doesn't have a smog problem either, they say...


It's hard to believe it's only 7 when looking at videos of it on LiveLeak...
Argentine government tries to ease tensions, fix damage from flooding that forced evacuations
By ALMUDENA CALATRAVA Associated Press, August 12, 4:10pm
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina Argentina's government tried to ease public anger Wednesday over flooding that forced an estimated 11,000 people to flee their homes in Buenos Aires province.
The inadequacy of flood prevention measures in Argentina's largest province that was evident after torrential weekend rainstorms has become a hot issue ahead of the Oct. 25 presidential election. ...
The storms in northern Buenos Aires province dropped a record total of 35 centimeters (almost 14 inches) of rain in some areas, according to the province's agency for emergencies. ...


Flood fury in Argentina, Morocco, Chile
Skymet, August 12, 2015
Floods kill three in Argentina: In Argentina, the flood water broke the riverbanks and deluged the streets of Buenos Aires killing three people on Tuesday. The flooding forced more than 11,000 people to evacuate their homes. Many parts of the fertile Pampas region is under water. ...
More see link above.


No wonder that there is strong flooding in Morocco as well. Pic of current airmasses in Western Africa.


GFS sees something warm-cored emerging the coast.
Hilda a Threat to Hawaii?

A weakened Hilda will move near Hawaii late this week
Quoting 54. Gearsts:

WTH look at this forecast.



Hmm that's one big upper level anticyclone

Hmm you never know it just might do some good
Quoting 147. hurricanes2018:




look at the wind shear here poor tropical storm


LOL and I thought this was an El Niño year the strongest Armageddon El Niño ever lol
Please give me a break
Ridiculous heat today. But I got rain finally today, just enough to get the streets wet though.

Quoting 153. SouthCentralTx:

Ridiculous heat today. But I got rain finally today, just enough to get the streets wet though.




Same story here. We received about 0.02-0.03" here as the storms fell apart. Rain chances over the next week are much better though, so I think the bit of rain is just a taste of things to come.
Quoting 152. wunderkidcayman:



LOL and I thought this was an El Niño year the strongest Armageddon El Niño ever lol
Please give me a break
And what that has to do with anything?
A great example why driving in Cane/Typhoon conditions is a really B-a-d idea.

Always.
Typhoon Souldeor Aug 9th in Taiwan

A quick Nado can do this esp along the shore lines..



Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm that's one big upper level anticyclone

Hmm you never know it just might do some good
That is shear... big strong unfavorable shear.


WHY NO INVEST 94E yet its up to 30%/90%
Addition to post #149: flooding in Salto, Buenos Aires Province/Argentina:

I am really starting to worry. it is almost september and we have not seen the first decent tropical or even a tropical depression in the Dominican Republic. A serious draught is affecting us in a time of year where rains are really common. Shall we have consider this will continue during the whole season?
*
Today was my 45th consecutive day of 90F or greater in Nola.

The record is 51.

165. JLPR2
The GFS keeps at it, the precursor low develops at 72hrs off the coast of Africa. At least this one is shown in the short range.

8/12/2015 11:08:22 AM
The Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, and there is no support for tropical development through at least early next week. Strong wind shear over the Caribbean and dry, dusty air from the Sahara will prevent tropical waves from developing. Closer to the United States, in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast, there are no imminent threats for tropical development as well.
Some more mixed news:

This is due to the cut-off low in the western (now southern) Mediterranean, I've told you about:
Two dead as storms batter Italy
The Local (Italy) Published: 12 Aug 2015 07:43 GMT 02:00

Egypt heatwave leaves 61 people dead
BBC, 5 hours ago
A heatwave in Egypt has killed at least 61 people in three days, the health ministry says, as temperatures soared to 47C (116F). Forty died after suffering heatstroke on Sunday and Monday, and another 21 died on Tuesday, state media reported. Another 581 people have been admitted to hospital with heat exhaustion. ...

I guess I've already told you that it's hot in central/eastern Europe ;-) We're longing for the storms which are predicted from tomorrow on. The surface map for tomorrow already looks interesting:




Current updating IR loop.

Have a good night - and thoughts to the suffering people in Tianjing. Death toll of the blast has risen to 13 - so far. Edit: now 17 - so far :-(
Is alive at 198 hours!



in 6 days maybe a tropical d to watch!!
Quoting 169. Gearsts:

Is alive at 198 hours!

lets hope its happern!
173. JLPR2
Quoting 169. Gearsts:

Is alive at 198 hours!



I wouldn't get my hopes up, but at least it's a pretty model run. XD
Pouch 20L seems to be the one to watch as it progresses westward, still early to know what it does.
Hello All..

Reading back I see that it might be some potential development in the Atlantic..

12z Navgem is hinting at what the GFS is/was showing..18z is running now





Also the 12z Navgem Ensembles



18z run at 156 hours..still running..

168 hours
Last frame at 180 hours..

Will our African TW go plop, plop, fizz, fizz?

LOL
Quoting 180. Gearsts:

LOL



Long ranges start to lose resolution
Quoting 146. Envoirment:



So far. They aren't going to find all of the dead right away, especially given that there's a lot of debri/potentially dangerous buildings that may collapse (Journalists are only allowed as close as 10km to the blast site due to the potential of collapsing buildings around the blast zone). Plus some people may die in hospital due to their injuries. Hopefully the death toll remains small. Really quite a tragic scene, especially some of the pictures and videos that are coming out.


Also, if the explosion got as hot as shown on the infrared satellite; the people closest to the explosion might of been vaporized .
At 1:50 PM this afternoon, the Monterey buoy hit 68.7 F. Winds along the central California coast have gone almost dead calm as we get into the maximum heating season. Still thinking one of the central coast buoys will pop 70 F.
The prospects for any Atlantic development in the next 5-10 days remain very slim. The blind squirrel (GFS) should eventually find its nut, and I still do like its idea that a couple systems may form over the central/eastern MDR and then weaken as they move west. We need to see other models on board though, especially the Euro. As usual, it has not been spinning up ghost storms.

Of course, if you really want to track tropical cyclones, the Pacific will remain the place to be, especially WPac. This is a potential meteorologist's dream- you can already see the potential for two powerful cyclones to form in those two disturbances around 10N. That's far from a guarantee though- it's very hard to predict how budding disturbances like these will interact, and I have little faith in any model projection for that region right now. It's a wait and see game. The blob at the top is a tropical storm as well, "Molave".

186. JLPR2
Quoting 180. Gearsts:

LOL



Completely fizzles before reaching the NE Caribbean, man.... that would that be extremely depressing. :(
Quoting 182. hurricanes2018:



wow

Now wait a minute, is this somebody's idea of a bad joke. A tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic during a dead year like this. Now that's not funny. How dare any computer spit out a prog like this. Next thing you know some of the people on this blog might develop a little hope. Remember what Red said in the movie The Shawshank Redemption. "Hope can be a damgerous thing."

T.R.s reponse to the latest run of the GFS
AEI now nearing 4.20 sigma. Just down right historic if SST's follow across Nino 3.4 as forecast.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

Our Atmopsheric El Nino index suggests this year's #ElNino will be the strongest EVER in our archives (back to 1948)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
A Upper Level Low pressure area is going to form in the Neastern GOM, then retro grade west thru the weekend, bringing some relief to the Heat tempered GOM coastal areas.



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 170 NM E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N27W TO 10N27W...MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 22W-30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N47W TO 07N50W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN
45W-55W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUDINESS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING MAINLY ALONG
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 46W-
53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N76W TO 08N77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 66W-86W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO 09N37. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 10N48W...THEN
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N52W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 29W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
24N90W SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF
21N AND E OF 95W. TO THE N...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM 27N94W TO 30N85W
THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N81W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N78W INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS S OF
PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 17N66W TO 13N65W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS AT ABOUT 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL-LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


wow look at the northeast summer will be back!
With the front clearing and no Moon, tonight will be a epic Perseids Meteor Shower with Highest density between 1am CDT and Dawn.


At 11:00 AM HST, the center of
Tropical Storm Hilda
was located at 17.4N 152.0W.
285 miles SE of Bradshaw Aaf
255 miles SE of Hilo
310 miles ESE of Kailua-Kona
265 miles ESE of South Point
350 miles SE of Hana
375 miles SE of Kahului
415 miles SE of Kaunakakai
400 miles SE of Lanai City
475 miles SE of Honolulu
475 miles SE of Joint Base Phh
600 miles SE of Barking Sands
570 miles SE of Lihue
610 miles ESE of Niihau
1160 miles E of Johnston Atoll
1770 miles ESE of Midway
Euro ESP Ensemble Mean MSLP & Anomaly is also hinting at possible mischief of the African wave..

Sometimes it not just always looking at the operational for clues..

Time will tell what will or won't happen happen unless you have a crystal ball and already know the outcome of the Atlantic Season because if you do then let me know so I can play the lottery..











nice tropical wave ready to come off the coast of africa
Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:



nice tropical wave ready to come off the coast of africa
Again ?????
I predict a poofter.....
Quoting 203. pottery:

Again ?????
I predict a poofter.....


We are catching up to climatology here so future waves will have more of a chance in the books.
Audi 5000

Super Duper El Nino or Not, This Map "Never" lies.

Just still worried about the strong waves or struggling storms/depressions that make it up into the W-Atl.
210. beell
Quoting 152. wunderkidcayman:



LOL and I thought this was an El Niño year the strongest Armageddon El Niño ever lol
Please give me a break


Global ACE is usually higher in an El Nino year. Especially in the Pacific. High enough to offset the typical dearth of activity in the Atlantic.
It was a nice day outside today but that will not be lasting long....Upper 80's to 90's will be returning come Friday and then mid 90's by next Monday.
Quoting 212. washingtonian115:

It was a nice day outside today but that will not be lasting long....Upper 80's to 90's will be returning come Friday and then mid 90's by next Monday.
Yes, it was less humid outside today and very good with some nice breezes. The heat is coming for sure!
Quoting 213. Climate175:

Yes, it was less humid outside today and very good outside with some nice breezes. The heat is coming for sure!
i guess next monday is going to be hot weather for the northeast and the south!! a big time warmer up
Quoting 197. Patrap:

With the front clearing and no Moon, tonight will be a epic Perseids Meteor Shower with Highest density between 1am CDT and Dawn.



That is a large trough....In the 50,s here tonight...its gonna be a comfortable night for August.
Quoting 210. beell:



Global ACE is usually higher in an El Nino year. Especially in the Pacific. High enough to offset the typical dearth of activity in the Atlantic.

Especially true this year!

(Map via Phil Klotzbach on Twitter)

Quoting 197. Patrap:

With the front clearing and no Moon, tonight will be a epic Perseids Meteor Shower with Highest density between 1am CDT and Dawn.





Did you ever notice how meteor showers always happen at night?
Whistling minding my own business...

Quoting 217. Grothar:



Did you ever notice how meteor showers always happen at night?


On the Terra Firma maybe, but on the ISS in Low Earth Orbit, they are wunderful as well.

Did you get the Pudding I sent?

NASA astronaut Ron Garan took this photograph during the Perseid meteor shower on Aug. 13, 2011 from the International Space Station.



Quoting 207. ProgressivePulse:

Super Duper El Nino or Not, This Map "Never" lies.


True just ask Uncle Andrew and Aunt Betsy over there they are retired.
On this date 11 years ago back in 2004,hurricane charley was hitting Cuba and taking aim at south Florida.
Quoting 218. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Whistling minding my own business...


Cocaine is a helluva drug and has come down hard on the GFS.
Quoting 221. FirstCoastMan:

On this date 11 years ago back in 2004,hurricane charley was hitting Cuba and taking aim at south Florida.
Isn't El nino3.4 at 1.9c?
I say this is really getting old don't some of you guys have other things in life too go do other then too post old photos of past hurricane its starting to get old
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

Isn't El nino3.4 at 1.9c?




yep I go buy that the CPC shows each week I think will see 2.1 too 2.3 on next week update I don't go buy the CDAS maps like some on here do them maps are so far off there game
Something I rarely see here in the Caymans has been happening a few times this summer, dry lightning and thunder without a drop of rain , today is about the worst I seen it and it's happening again tonight, at least on the SW coast of Grand Cayman!
Quoting 217. Grothar:



Did you ever notice how meteor showers always happen at night?


Just because YOU have poor eyesight Gro, doesn't mean they don't happen in the day. :P

(j/k, I can't see them either in the day).
Quoting 228. Astrometeor:



Just because YOU have poor eyesight Gro, doesn't mean they don't happen in the day. :P

(j/k, I can't see them either in the day).
But you can hear them with the right equipment, and with their help you can hear a lot farther, too.
Quoting 225. Tazmanian:

I say this is really getting old don't some of you guys have other things in life too go do other then too post old photos of past hurricane its starting to get old


What's wrong with pictures of Hurricane Charley on its anniversary? That storm was devastating.
Quoting 225. Tazmanian:

I say this is really getting old don't some of you guys have other things in life too go do other then too post old photos of past hurricane its starting to get old


Says Taz with 116,000 comments and over 5,000 posts.
Quoting 230. CybrTeddy:



What's wrong with pictures of Hurricane Charley on its anniversary? That storm was devastating.



that's ture I rember watching that storm live on TWC has it was making land fall
Quoting 161. Gurena:

I am really starting to worry. it is almost september and we have not seen the first decent tropical or even a tropical depression in the Dominican Republic. A serious draught is affecting us in a time of year where rains are really common. Shall we have consider this will continue during the whole season?

I don't know the answer to your question. There are wunderground members from the Caribbean who watch the forecasts there and may be able to answer you or guide you to where you can find a longer term forecast. I hope you get some rain soon!
Quoting 227. stormpetrol:

Something I rarely see here in the Caymans has been happening a few times this summer, dry lightning and thunder without a drop of rain , today is about the worst I seen it and it's happening again tonight, at least on the SW coast of Grand Cayman!


Yeah, noticed that. It happened at lunch time today and again this evening. Not an ounce of rain though. Thunder and lightning just offshore both times.
I wonder if this pans out..

Quoting 235. Gearsts:




Fujiwhara effect between two Category 5 equivalent Super Typhoons? Sign me right up.
Quoting 237. CybrTeddy:



Fujiwhara effect effect between two Category 5 equivalent Super Typhoons? Sign me right up.



hmmm CA may need too watch the lift overs and see if we get back too back hvy rains
Quoting 143. aquak9:


they say only seven dead...after seeing those videos?

Really?

And China doesn't have a smog problem either, they say...


Well, the Chinese authoritarian government has always been known for it's honestly and openness ;)


Whatever the case, what a terrifying event, I'm sure there remains much chaos and confusion.
Get ready. Two cat. 5 typhoons are coming. They are massive and spread out enough to become super typhoons. Second one may do something crazy with intensity. Where will they go?

So sad firefighters were in that explosion in China. That had to kill everyone in a quarter mile range plus. Power was not something you see. But once.
And I for one would like to say that I'm glad we have the likes of Taz and Barefoot here. Diversity of the blog is what makes it so great.
How many L's can you count?



Link
Good morning from Germany under the "African high" (see text below). Let's see what the day has in store for us. Thunderstorms are already active in France and reaching the southern coast of Britain as well.



Current discussion from Estofex (with more details available by the link)
An African high extends into Central Europe. During the period, it starts to ridge into Scandinavia in the wake of an intense north-European trough. Downstream, a weak trough over eastern Europe is connected to a cut-off low over the Ionian Sea. Strong mid-level flow affects south-western Europe at the flanks of a cut-off trough centered over the Bay of Biscay. This trough becomes negatively tilted as it connects to an Atlantic trough moving into north-western Europe. At lower levels, warm air advection takes places ahead of a cold front that crosses France on Thursday.
A broad plume of steep lapse rates is centered across the Balkans, where latest soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, e.g. at Budapest, Zadar, and Sofia. Ahead of the west-European cold front, an elevated mixed layer spreads northward across France, sampled by soundings from Barcelona, Bordeaux, and Madrid. These lapse rates can overlap with rich boundary layer moisture especially ahead of the cold front over southern France, and latest Bordeaux MLCAPE calculation indicates more than 3000 J/kg. From France to western Russia, better moisture along a frontal boundary results in CAPE up to 1000 J/kg, whereas weaker moisture limits CAPE further south except for the Mediterranean. Best CAPE/shear overlap is expected from eastern France to central Germany and the western Alps as well as from southern France to the west Mediterranean Sea.



Low "Eberhard".


Current airmasses (saved pic; source) with low "Eberhard" over the Bay of Biscay. And northwestern Africa is sending more moist into the Atlantic towards the Canary Islands.

Quoting 246. swflurker:

How many L's can you count?



Link
I counted 17, is that right?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south and southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with
a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in
association with this wave over the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
nice weather here this morning in new haven,conn
damn.neighbors..lights.everywhere
Quoting 219. Patrap:



On the Terra Firma maybe, but on the ISS in Low Earth Orbit, they are wunderful as well.

Did you get the Pudding I sent?

NASA astronaut Ron Garan took this photograph during the Perseid meteor shower on Aug. 13, 2011 from the International Space Station.






A few hours ago, I was watching the Perseids with my kids, explaining to my youngest that the bright flashes of light are not that high up, in fact, less distance than my commute to work, and that they occur BELOW the folks in the space station - can't wait to show this photo! Thanks for the post.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 131121
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
Highlights:
Tropical Storm Hilda is drifting west, centered about 240 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
The tropical storm watch was canceled for the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County).
A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Big Island through Saturday morning.
Strong wind shear is preventing Hilda from strengthening, despite persistent thunderstorms.
Crippled by this wind shear, Hilda's center is expected to pass south of the Big Island Thursday, as a tropical depression or remnant low. See below for more information on what impacts are likely or possible in Hawaii.
Interesting.... at least something in the next 5-7 days. This will bbe a wait and see situation. We'll see GFS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

...SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY INTO FRIDAY AND BRING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO BE COOLING
DOWN TO AROUND -8C THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN TO
AROUND -9C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY COULD BECOME STRONG. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



SOMETHING WATCH BY NEXT WEEK!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical cyclone to form from this system over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

invest 94E WILL be here soon
Look at those tropical waves.


It's started. Exciting stuff
Quoting 254. islander101010:

damn.neighbors..lights.everywhere


Close.your.blinds

Flash flood in Morocco on Monday (Aug 10) with 5 persons missing (according to twitter: 3 bodies found).

Well, and looking at the current conditions over there ...

Source.
Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

I don't know the answer to your question. There are wunderground members from the Caribbean who watch the forecasts there and may be able to answer you or guide you to where you can find a longer term forecast. I hope you get some rain soon!
Best chance for tropical moisture is coming up in the next 6 to 8 weeks. There have been the typical Twaves, but environmental settings this season have kept them devoid of moisture.

The ideal thing would be to have a ts that brings precipitation but not too much wind. However be careful what you wish for, as there's no guarantee the storm you get will be so benign...
Quoting 264. farupnorth:



It's started. Exciting stuff
i will be Exciting to if we get two storms for it
Quoting 235. Gearsts:


can you say Fujiwara?
Quoting 241. DeepSeaRising:

So sad firefighters were in that explosion in China. That had to kill everyone in a quarter mile range plus. Power was not something you see. But once.

This looks like a scene from a war zone ...


If the final death toll remains below 100 I'd be surprised :-( . Hurricane deaths are bad enough; human caused tragedies like this make my heart hurt.
Quoting 252. hurricanes2018:


SAL suppression underway.... amazing it is to see that kind of activity over the NW African coast at this time of year ... and with implications for the next few weeks ....
HRRR model showing an active day across the FL Penisula. Very wet pattern starts today and could go thru the end of August. We need the rain here 9 days with no rain at my location. After a very wet June & July with just over 21" of rain this month has been very dry.

273. SuzK
Quoting 142. Tazmanian:



check this storm out this one be nuts for CA for so early in the season this is the 12z by the way




THIS. I would appreciate some follow through on this forecast as it seems quite unusual.
Good Morning. The Atlantic is clear as a bell this morning and the E-Pac is in full bloom again:

Both GFS & Euro are already showing the Sub Tropical Jet taking shape across the Southern US especially across the Gulf & FL. Hurricane Season's door just might be about to close.

276. MahFL
Quoting 270. BahaHurican:



If the final death toll remains below 100 I'd be surprised.


50,000 babies are born in China every day.
Quoting 273. SuzK:



THIS. I would appreciate some follow through on this forecast as it seems quite unusual.


I was just posting the Sub Tropical Jet is already beginning to show itself in the long range could be the end of the 2016 Hurricane Season or atleast any threats to the US.
To see the AEI now rising to 4.20 sigma with indication it possibly go to 4.50 sigma in a couple weeks means the US is in for some very unusual weather coming up. Likely a Historic El-Nino in progress.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 17h17 hours ago
Our Atmopsheric El Nino index suggests this year's #ElNino will be the strongest EVER in our archives (back to 1948)
Wow, the forecast for the 34117 suggesting some rain about to kick into high gear!

Right now its saying over an inch today, and at least .25 for the next 8 days.

We shall see, but the plants around here are about to be in heaven for the first time all summer. (I don't have irrigation)

Quoting 271. BahaHurican:

SAL suppression underway.... amazing it is to see that kind of activity over the NW African coast at this time of year ... and with implications for the next few weeks ....



Yes looks like the low in the Biscay is sucking up moisture from East Africa and cutting off the SALfor a while maybe allowing the waves exiting soon to avoid immediate death ;)
Quoting 279. FrostyNaples:

Wow, the forecast for the 34117 suggesting some rain about to kick into high gear!

Right now its saying over an inch today, and at least .25 for the next 8 days.

We shall see, but the plants around here are about to be in heaven for the first time all summer. (I don't have irrigation)


Folks in S FL I am sure are loving the recent GFS runs. Big time rainfall totals on the way for most of FL.

0Z GFS



East Pacific
Quoting 276. MahFL:



50,000 babies are born in China every day.

hey MICHAEL
I HEARD you - - - It's KRISTal clear

so stop now, ok?

run along.
Quoting 278. StormTrackerScott:

To see the AEI now rising to 4.20 sigma with indication it possibly go to 4.50 sigma in a couple weeks means the US is in for some very unusual weather coming up. Likely a Historic El-Nino in progress.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 17h17 hours ago
Our Atmopsheric El Nino index suggests this year's #ElNino will be the strongest EVER in our archives (back to 1948)

Good morning Scott!!! You've been predicting this all along, what "unusual weather" would you think is possible for Florida? (200 Bears) Thanks!
Quoting 285. aquak9:


hey MICHAEL
I HEARD you - - - It's KRISTal clear

so stop now, ok?

run along.


Agree.
July PDO is out and its 1.84! Up from 1.54 in June.

2015** JAN 2.45 FEB 2.30 MAR 2.00 APR 1.44 MAY 1.20 JUN 1.54 (July)1.84
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:

July PDO is out and its 1.84! Up from 1.54 in June.

2015** JAN 2.45 FEB 2.30 MAR 2.00 APR 1.44 MAY 1.20 JUN 1.54 (July)1.84
But what does this mean for Florida? Any thoughts for Palm Beach county? (200 bears)
Hard to believe this was 11 years ago. Quite a contrast to today.



HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE
EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX
WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST
RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.

CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 82.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.8N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 81.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW



What Charley did to this gas station was just unfathomable: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:

Both GFS & Euro are already showing the Sub Tropical Jet taking shape across the Southern US especially across the Gulf & FL. Hurricane Season's door just might be about to close.


good!!
Quoting 290. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hard to believe this was 11 years ago. Quite a contrast to today.



HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE
EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX
WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST
RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.

CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 82.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.8N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 81.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW



What Charley did to this gas station was just unfathomable: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I


WOW!!! I rode out Charley and that was pure Hell. Never seen walls move like I did with that hurricane. The walls were pulsing in and out as the eye approached my area near UCF.
293. MahFL
Quoting 292. StormTrackerScott:



WOW!!! I rode out Charley and that was pure Hell. Never seen walls move like I did with that hurricane. The walls were pulsing in and out as the eye approached my area near UCF.


I watched Charley on radar and did an "uh uh" as it did a right turn into Punta Gora. A couple of days later a printer tech came to JAX from Orlando and asked what all the damage was he saw around JAX, I told him it was from Charley and he could not believe it.
Charley was a shock here in Orlando. We knew we would get affects but never expected the 105 mph wind gust @ OIA that occurred. Up the road from there @ UCF I suspect we had similar gust as whole forest were knocked over and some buildings lost walls and most lost roofs/ roof damage from shingles being blown off.


Took many weeks to recover from those hurricanes of 2004
Quoting 292. StormTrackerScott:



WOW!!! I rode out Charley and that was pure Hell. Never seen walls move like I did with that hurricane. The walls were pulsing in and out as the eye approached my area near UCF.
That's hysterical!!!
Ouch...

Quoting 295. Llamaluvr:
That's hysterical!!!


That is what hurricanes do. We enjoy observing (from afar) how they burst on to the scene and grow into these monsters.

I would never ever want to experience one again- especially after 2004/2005.

That is what I fear most about the potential for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
Two things I remember most about Hurricane Charley:

1) Bay News 9 met showing a radar loop that clearly showed Charley turning right while still saying it was going due north.

2) Dick Fletcher (my favorite Bay Area met ever) had to evacuate the regular studio and go to a backup location where he apparently didn't have access to the latest information. He was still showing it coming to the area when we were already in the clear. It was sad because he was so good.
What I remember most about Charley is all the talk on this blog as to how the "Tampa Shield" came through.....
Quoting 299. weathermanwannabe:

What I remember most about Charley is all the talk on this blog as to how the "Tampa Shield" came through.....


the Seminole Indian burial ground too.
Quoting 298. BobinTampa:

Two things I remember most about Hurricane Charley:

1) Bay News 9 met showing a radar loop that clearly showed Charley turning right while still saying it was going due north.

2) Dick Fletcher (my favorite Bay Area met ever) had to evacuate the regular studio and go to a backup location where he apparently didn't have access to the latest information. He was still showing it coming to the area when we were already in the clear. It was sad because he was so good.


I've never seen a hurricane take more mets by surprise than Charley. Like you said, local mets in Tampa were positive it was coming here, right up to the point it was painfully clear it wasn't. I lived in St. Pete at the time and evacuated my apartment. Charley was a turning point in hurricane forecasting where the "cone of doom" became more of a focus in landfall than an actual location.
What is interesting to me about the NHC's discussion about Charlie is extending the warning area up the west coast.
Charley and Andrew were both location surprises with Andrew taking an unexpected hard left on the Atlantic side of the Peninsula and intensifying and Charlie taking a hard right on the Gulf side..............Both storms were forecast to move inland further up the Florida coast per the official cone if you consider the center-line. At one level, you could argue, with that type of angled approach to the coast from both storms that any jogs made a few hundred miles of difference in terms of the projected landfall location but I believe that they both impacted inside of the broader cone warning and watch areas nonetheless.


no red lows in the Atlantic right now


very warm water next to the east coast this year
Quoting 298. BobinTampa:

Two things I remember most about Hurricane Charley:

1) Bay News 9 met showing a radar loop that clearly showed Charley turning right while still saying it was going due north.

2) Dick Fletcher (my favorite Bay Area met ever) had to evacuate the regular studio and go to a backup location where he apparently didn't have access to the latest information. He was still showing it coming to the area when we were already in the clear. It was sad because he was so good.
The hurricane made landfall well within the NHC's cone of uncertainty. The public chose to follow the line and got burned by it. The NHC warned the public not to do that, stating large uncertainties in the track.
Quoting 306. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The hurricane made landfall well within the NHC's cone of uncertainty. The public chose to follow the line and got burned by it. The NHC warned the public not to do that, stating large uncertainties in the track.


If you're in the cone you board up and prepare to be hit.
Quoting 306. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The hurricane made landfall well within the NHC's cone of uncertainty. The public chose to follow the line and got burned by it. The NHC warned the public not to do that, stating large uncertainties in the track.


While you are 100% correct, most of the thinking was landfall further up the coast. I remember very well watching live broadcasts from the NHC and them warning folks all the way up to the big bend area. The cone will always be there out.
Quoting 298. BobinTampa:

Two things I remember most about Hurricane Charley:

1) Bay News 9 met showing a radar loop that clearly showed Charley turning right while still saying it was going due north.

2) Dick Fletcher (my favorite Bay Area met ever) had to evacuate the regular studio and go to a backup location where he apparently didn't have access to the latest information. He was still showing it coming to the area when we were already in the clear. It was sad because he was so good.


Mine - Roy Leep
Quoting 290. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What Charley did to this gas station was just unfathomable: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I


I used to drive by that gas station every day. Seeing the damage up close and personal was worse than the video. I'll never forget that day. watching our neighbor's patio furniture flying past our lanai, seeing the concrete roof tiles flying off the houses and becoming mini-missiles, and the terrible wind noise...still gives me chills.
The NHC did a remarkable job of forecasting Charley's path, as seen by the series below. Of course, someone concentrating on the center of the cone rather the the cone itself might say the NHC screwed up. But there's a really, really good reason they tell you to ignore the center line. The fact of the matter is, Charley made landfall at a spot that was inside the cone for several days. Hard to beat that, I think...




Quoting 309. Bucsboltsfan:



Mine - Roy Leep


Dick Fletcher visited my 7th grade science class so that may cloud my judgment. Roy Leep's stupid dog got on my nerves.
One tropical wave, that becomes a short lived depression, dissipates (sheared to death), merges with another tropical wave 10 days later.....

Tropical Depression Ten formed ten years ago today.

Link

Quoting 213. Climate175:

Yes, it was less humid outside today and very good with some nice breezes. The heat is coming for sure!


September is only a few weeks away. Last week of September and first three of October have some of the best weather of the year here. Autumn overall is by far my favorite season in the Mid Atlantic
Rossano (Southern Italy) yesterday due to the Mediterranean cut-off low:



Cars washed away and people stranded as violent storms bring devastating flash floods
19:40, 12 August 2015, By Mirror.co.uk
The authorities in Calabria, southern Italy, are declaring a state of emergency after the extreme weather left transport cut off and buildings evacuated

Rossano: Calabria clear-up begins after storms, flash floods (2)
Army removing debris, police guarding against looters
13/08/2015
Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The Atlantic is clear as a bell this morning and the E-Pac is in full bloom again:


So,the blog is about to close.
Quoting 259. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Interesting.... at least something in the next 5-7 days. This will bbe a wait and see situation. We'll see GFS.

Yea, wait until the next couple of runs and see both systems completely disappear from the map.
New blog soon.


Quoting 309. Bucsboltsfan:



Mine - Roy Leep
That a name I have not heard in years..Roy Leep was one of the best Mets I've seen in Florida...Or anywhere

Interesting forecast track for 93E..

Quoting 313. MonsterTrough:

One tropical wave, that becomes a short lived depression, dissipates (sheared to death), merges with another tropical wave 10 days later.....

Tropical Depression Ten formed ten years ago today.

Link


No more choice to look back in the years.This year the season is over.
Quoting 320. hydrus:

That a name I have not heard in years..Roy Leep was one of the best Mets I've seen in Florida...Or anywhere

Interesting forecast track for 93E..


Crazy
Quoting 308. Bucsboltsfan:



While you are 100% correct, most of the thinking was landfall further up the coast. I remember very well watching live broadcasts from the NHC and them warning folks all the way up to the big bend area. The cone will always be there out.
I actually remember Denis Phillips at WFTS mentioning in one of his shows how Charley could turn early and referenced back to Hurricane Donna in 1960. Now I have 2 theories as to why it turned sooner: 1) Tropical Storm Bonnie left a trailing trough of low pressure which aided in amplifying the trough. 2) Hurricane Charley underwent rapid intensification and as a result with the pressure dropping and the cloud heights reaching the tropopause it followed the next highest level of steering, which if you go by the CIMSS steering layer, Charley at the 9 am advisory had a pressure of 970 mb. and by 5 pm when it had made landfall was at 941 mb. Therefore, Charley followed the steering from the 250-300 mb. level instead at the 400 mb. level.

Here is an example of the different steering layers according the CIMSS: Link
Quoting 318. HurriHistory:


Yea, wait until the next couple of runs and see both systems completely disappear from the map.
Poof that model.
And this started 10 years ago today:

Tropical Depression Ten was the tenth tropical cyclone of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed on August 13 from a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 8. As a result of strong wind shear, the depression remained weak and did not strengthen beyond tropical depression status. The cyclone degenerated on August 14, although its remnants partially contributed to the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve, which eventually intensified into Hurricane Katrina.
Quoting 298. BobinTampa:

Two things I remember most about Hurricane Charley:

1) Bay News 9 met showing a radar loop that clearly showed Charley turning right while still saying it was going due north.

2) Dick Fletcher (my favorite Bay Area met ever) had to evacuate the regular studio and go to a backup location where he apparently didn't have access to the latest information. He was still showing it coming to the area when we were already in the clear. It was sad because he was so good.
Two things I remember,was a tropical storm and then a hurricane.
The intensity of Charley impresses me every time I watch videos of the eyewall. It was less like a hurricane and more like a gigantic tornado.
Quoting 318. HurriHistory:


Yea, wait until the next couple of runs and see both systems completely disappear from the map.
It has actually been fairly consistent in showing development in the 7-10 range now. Obviously, windshear and dry air are going to be an issue, but if it stays a low rider it has a chance.
Quoting 321. prcane4you:

No more choice to look back in the years.This year the season is over.


I get that MDR, shear, atmospheric conditions in 2015 are all non conductive to TD/TS/H growth.....

My point was that nearly everyone wrote off a former TD/TW, and it contributed to k.

"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history." -A. Huxley
Quoting 325. BiloxiIsle:

And this started 10 years ago today:

Tropical Depression Ten was the tenth tropical cyclone of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed on August 13 from a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 8. As a result of strong wind shear, the depression remained weak and did not strengthen beyond tropical depression status. The cyclone degenerated on August 14, although its remnants partially contributed to the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve, which eventually intensified into Hurricane Katrina.

Great minds think alike. See post #313. : )
Quoting 319. Grothar:

New blog soon.



We'll see, but I think it will be about the 2 Super-Godzilla like typhoons in the WPAC.
Quoting 311. Neapolitan:

The NHC did a remarkable job of forecasting Charley's path, as seen by the series below. Of course, someone concentrating on the center of the cone rather the the cone itself might say the NHC screwed up. But there's a really, really good reason they tell you to ignore the center line. The fact of the matter is, Charley made landfall at a spot that was inside the cone for several days. Hard to beat that, I think...

That Wednesday a.m. centre line was right over the landfall location. I like having that centre line for me personally, but I'm glad NHC now shows the points in the cone without the line for the general public.
Its a real palatable feeling with K's 10th anniversary coming round.

My wife is having Surgery next Thursday we found out Tuesday.....

We celebrated our 25th anniversary Monday. So please keep her and us in your prayers.

The only long stretch of time we were seperated was from Aug 28th, 2005 to Sept 16th when we all reunited in Memphis.

...we are Eagles all of us, the nest is in our soul'...

Quoting 267. BahaHurican:

Best chance for tropical moisture is coming up in the next 6 to 8 weeks. There have been the typical Twaves, but environmental settings this season have kept them devoid of moisture.

The ideal thing would be to have a ts that brings precipitation but not too much wind. However be careful what you wish for, as there's no guarantee the storm you get will be so benign...
Excuse me. My comment at 233 was an answer to a brand new wu member whose question to commenters about continuing drought in the Dominican Republic had gone unanswered for several hours*. Don't be blaming your hurricane(s) on me. I do not wishcast or do any form of spellcasting. Whether or not you believe the Chinese saying, "Be careful for what you wish," you get what you get. Nature will balance itself when and in whatever way necessary.

*233. Barefootontherocks
Quoting 161. Gurena:

I am really starting to worry. it is almost september and we have not seen the first decent tropical or even a tropical depression in the Dominican Republic. A serious draught is affecting us in a time of year where rains are really common. Shall we have consider this will continue during the whole season?
........
I don't know the answer to your question. There are wunderground members from the Caribbean who watch the forecasts there and may be able to answer you or guide you to where you can find a longer term forecast. I hope you get some rain soon!
Quoting 328. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It has actually been fairly consistent in showing development in the 7-10 range now. Obviously, windshear and dry air are going to be an issue, but if it stays a low rider it has a chance.


Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it unless it's still there under 144 hours out.
Quoting 331. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We'll see, but I think it will be about the 2 Super-Godzilla like typhoons in the WPAC.


Oh. I didn't mean the blog had anything to do with the image. Just that as soon as I post...........

Probably some additional info on the el Nino, since Scott hasn't updated
Quoting 313. MonsterTrough:

One tropical wave, that becomes a short lived depression, dissipates (sheared to death), merges with another tropical wave 10 days later.....

Tropical Depression Ten formed ten years ago today.

Link


This is the 10 year anniversary of a remarkable season ..... lots of back-looking to be done....
Quoting 336. Grothar:



Oh. I didn't mean the blog had anything to do with the image. Just that as soon as I post...........

Probably some additional info on the el Nino, since Scott hasn't updated
Oh yeah right sitting in class waiting for Professor Scott to continue his lesson on El Nino. I forgot to do my hw on El Nino. Wonder what he'll say?
Quoting 320. hydrus:

That a name I have not heard in years..Roy Leep was one of the best Mets I've seen in Florida...Or anywhere

Interesting forecast track for 93E..

Looks like another beheading ...
Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



Folks in S FL I am sure are loving the recent GFS runs. Big time rainfall totals on the way for most of FL.

0Z GFS





Hopefully, I don't need heavy rain, but would like to see it return. So far today, surprisingly very little rainfall out in the gulf despite cooling temps aloft and deep tropical moisture. The morning discussion also backs this up, showing what would have seemingly led to an active day today.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130814
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS IT NEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DIG
DEEPER INTO FLORIDA...BRINGING COOLER -8 TO -7 DEG C TEMPERATURES
AT 500 MB OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. WHILE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY IS THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DISCUSSES THIS BRIEFLY IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK/SWODY1.

CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA THAT ARE STILL EXPERIENCING
SATURATED GROUNDS AND ELEVATED RIVERS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE
INLAND WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
TODAY. STORMS MAY ALSO TRAIN OVER AN AREA...CAUSING REPEATED
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN THAT THE SATURATED GROUND IS NOT CAPABLE OF
HANDLING...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

OTHER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TODAY THAT COULD TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE COLD AIR
ALOFT TO BECOME STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE
DAY TURNS TO NIGHT...THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION WILL ERODE AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE IN BETWEEN INTERSTATE 4 AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MOST OF
FRIDAY...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS IN THAT
AREA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING EACH DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY...AND IN
THE 70S FOR LOWS.


Last night's model runs looked quite wet near the coast today yet for some odd reason it's not happening. We'll have to see how today evolves along with other days this week.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 323. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I actually remember Denis Phillips at WFTS mentioning in one of his shows how Charley could turn early and referenced back to Hurricane Donna in 1960. Now I have 2 theories as to why it turned sooner: 1) Tropical Storm Bonnie left a trailing trough of low pressure which aided in amplifying the trough. 2) Hurricane Charley underwent rapid intensification and as a result with the pressure dropping and the cloud heights reaching the tropopause it followed the next highest level of steering, which if you go by the CIMSS steering layer, Charley at the 9 am advisory had a pressure of 970 mb. and by 5 pm when it had made landfall was at 941 mb. Therefore, Charley followed the steering from the 250-300 mb. level instead at the 400 mb. level.

Here is an example of the different steering layers according the CIMSS: Link


I agree, stronger TC's become deeper with height given the warm core lows originate near the surface and become more robust with height as they deepen. The result is that they are steered more by the upper levels at a stronger intensity compared to the lower levels at a lesser intensity. The main reason for the right turn I agree is the result of the RI phase. If it had not intensified so rapidly, it would have likely continued towards Tampa.

The landfall forecast intensity was 125 mph, however, it deepened from a moderate category 2 to a high end category 4 at 150 mph and 941 mb pressure as you pointed out in about 2 hours, which did indeed lead to it feeling the impact of steering that led to a more right turn.
Quoting 332. BahaHurican:

That Wednesday a.m. centre line was right over the landfall location. I like having that centre line for me personally, but I'm glad NHC now shows the points in the cone without the line for the general public.
i will say this and i remember it vividly since i had to evacuate... the mets in tampa on TV that day , up until the storm turned, were telling people in tampa this is it. its the one we have feared etc etc. so your right about that cone but the tv weather people were really , and with good reason, making sure people in tampa were very very aware of what was just hours away from happening. and then the turn, just like someone was driving a bus. i remember the minute that turned happened and we had on fox 13 and everyone held there breath to see if it was just a jog or a real change in direction.
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:

Both GFS & Euro are already showing the Sub Tropical Jet taking shape across the Southern US especially across the Gulf & FL. Hurricane Season's door just might be about to close.



We got till November 30th so it is no where near closing yet...anything can happen.