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Tropical Storm Henri forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2009

The tropics spawned another October surprise today, when Tropical Storm Henri formed in the face of adverse levels of wind shear. Henri is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, which ordinarily prevents rapid development like we witnessed this afternoon. However, the environment is quite moist, and Henri is over warm waters, 29°C. An ASCAT pass from 11:37am EDT showed Henri had winds of 40 mph. Satellite loops show that Henri has managed to rapidly develop a large area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in just a few hours, though the high shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the west side of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to Henri's northwest, and this dry air will act to slow Henri's growth some. The dry air is creating strong downdrafts that are apparent on visible satellite images as arcs of cumulus clouds spreading out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface, along the northwest side of Henri's center.

None of the reliable global computer models showed Henri would develop, and the models all favor weakening and dissipation of Henri by Thursday, due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The official NHC forecast goes along with this scenario, but think there is a medium (30 - 50% chance) that Henri will not dissipate. By Friday, wind shear in the vicinity of Henri (or its remains) is predicted to fall to the low to moderate range. Even if Henri has dissipated by that point, regeneration into a tropical storm may occur. The track of Henri after Friday is problematic, as the storm will be in an area of weak steering currents. Several of the models favor a track to the west-southwest into the Caribbean, across Hispaniola. Residents of the Dominican Republic and Haiti should anticipate that Henri or its remains may bring flooding rains to Hispaniola by Saturday. It is also possible that Henri will get pulled northwards and recurved out to sea, and not affect the Caribbean at all, though.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Henri.

A little tropical weather for England
The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace is currently making landfall in Southwest England. Grace's remains brought sustained winds of tropical storm force--41 mph--to one buoy off the coast last hour, and 38 mph to the Sevenstones Lightship buoy. you can track the progress of Grace via our wundermap for the region.


Figure 2. The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace scoots by to the south of Ireland in this visible satellite image taken at 1pm EDT 10/06/09. Image credit: UK Met Office.

Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm out good nite everyone. This blog gets harder to come to each day with the crap that gets posted.
502. Prgal
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HENRI ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HENRI ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
503. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:


The center is now a naked swirl to the SW of the convection...you can see it on RGB mode zoomed in.......Link


we on the blackout so the SSD pictures are 2hrs old
Quoting TampaSpin:


The center is now a naked swirl to the SW of the convection...you can see it on RGB mode zoomed in.......Link


Thanks for the image link, TS.

Naked swirl is a good description. To the 'Naked Eye' he looks like he wants to organize.
Quoting JLPR:


we on the blackout so the SSD pictures are 2hrs old


I realize that but the loop from then shows a very exposed Henri....i doubt much has changed when looking at the shear.
yeah i thought you wouldn't take that well, sorry that was kinda mean. ;(
And also for participants and lurkers Henri is pronounced Ah-n-ree.

508. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:


I realize that but the loop from then shows a very exposed Henri....i doubt much has changed when looking at the shear.


well yeah
according to this it was really close to being exposed before blackout :)
Link
Link above to Navy Microwave Image, click on 91L link on left. It will show you TS Henri pic from 0400 UTC, about 11PM CDT.
Quoting JerseyFisher:
And also for participants and lurkers Henri is pronounced Ah-n-ree.



I also found out the hard way, Henri is French for Henry. I thought is was a female variation of Henry?!?
didn't Tampa post that shear in the last 24 hrs around Henri has generally decreased?
513. JLPR
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link
Link above to Navy Microwave Image, click on 91L link on left. It will show you TS Henri pic from 0400 UTC, about 11PM CDT.


thanks =)


I really do hope the center is to the west of that convection xD
woah! there is nothing at 200mb voracity wise with Henri. Nothing...


GFS showed this split happening the other day. One part of the energy headed NW towards the Bahamas and the southern part headed toward the Caribbean. Big props for the GFS if that were to pan out.
Quoting JLPR:


thanks =)


I really do hope the center is to the west of that convection xD


I'm not too sure the convection has been moving west with it.
517. xcool


5.30 utc
518. xcool
Link

model runs.!!
Wont wind shear decrease the father W henri goes? It looks like hes going to miss current forecast points!
520. JLPR
Quoting ElConando:


I'm not too sure the convection has been moving west with it.


it looks too good
maybe a LLC relocation?
well cant tell till we get some visible images in the Morning
Quoting stormsurge39:
Wont wind shear decrease the father W henri goes? It looks like hes going to miss current forecast points!


Indeed, it's something to closely watch.
Quoting JLPR:


it looks too good
maybe a LLC relocation?
well cant tell till we get some visible images in the Morning


Regardless of whether or not Henri relocates his low-level center, the relentless southwesterly shear will ensure that it quickly becomes exposed again. I'll be surprised if this survives the next 48 hours.
523. xcool


524. JLPR
Quoting KoritheMan:


Regardless of whether or not Henri relocates his low-level center, the relentless southwesterly shear will ensure that it quickly becomes exposed again. I'll be surprised if this survives the next 48 hours.


I agree it will have to continue to fight if it wants to survive
If Henri makes it to the Carribean, what will wind shear be like?
Models say Henri bends back to the wsw and then eventually dies over Hispaniola or maybe Cuba. If the shear doesn't kill him first that will.
Quoting markymark1973:
Models say Henri bends back to the wsw and then eventually dies over Hispaniola or maybe Cuba. If the shear doesn't kill him first that will.
If it keeps a more westerly route wouldnt that keep it away from strong wind shear and over the islands into the Carribean for futher developement?
Quoting stormsurge39:
If it keeps a more westerly route wouldnt that keep it away from strong wind shear and over the islands into the Carribean for futher developement?

It would have to stay at a due west movement here on out and then have to go wsw at some point to dodge Hispaniola and make it into the southern Caribbean. I don't see that happening right now. Shear is not as bad in the southern Caribbean. That is probably the only way Henri would survive.
529. 7544
blackout ends in 30 minutes then we can see how henri looks imo we might see a red ball
Blackout has ended already.

531. 7544
Quoting silverstripes:
Blackout has ended already.



got it now hmmm he really is starting to get a good shape at this hour could be 50 mph by what he looks like right now they may still bump him up again at 5am
532. JLPR
By what im seeing it appears Henri has been moving mostly west with the center barely under the convection right on the edge of it

and its satellite presentation has improved like I never thought it would

533. JLPR
534. JLPR
also we have a stronger Henri

200910070600 18 -55.6 45
200910070000 18.1 -54.7 35
200910061800 17.7 -53.4 35

and with that im off to bed :0)
To me it doesn't look any better or worse. Still looks like a sheared mess like Ana and Danny. I have to say it does look better than Danny right now. The first good clear visible should tell us how bad of shape Henri is in.
Quoting markymark1973:
To me it doesn't look any better or worse. Still looks like a sheared mess like Ana and Danny. I have to say it does look better than Danny right now. The first good clear visible should tell us how bad of shape Henri is in.
does not look like anna thats for sure very interesting look this morning very heavy rain headed for the windwards at least
Parma looks like it just moved East of the Philippines, If it restrengthens or even just get convection Luzon will be in big trouble.
morning crew? very wet times ahead for the windwards
539. JRRP
may be im wrong but the shear is beginning to destroy

see you later
alot of scenarios could play out over the next few days what if both develop moving west or combines(most likely) moving west interesting 2009 season
544. IKE
Henri under 20-30 knots of shear(downcaster).

Blob SE of Henri has a high over it(wishcaster).

545. Mikla
Henri w/ mid and upper shear. He still faces a good deal of shear 20-30 over the next day or two...
post 544 - LOL

Ike - not only are you rooting against Henri, but you are rooting for another invest eh? Trying to get yelled at by all bloggers?

Seriously - nice observation.
henri starting to fight big time shear
Quoting leftovers:
henri starting to fight big time shear
beautiful rose sunrise here in e cent florida i live for this time of day
Quoting leftovers:
beautiful rose sunrise here in e cent florida i live for this time of day


I took your advise. I am going to return to surfing during the off-season but I hope we do get some decent waves from frontal waves passing to our north.
Good morning..
553. IKE
AtlantaMET.

Listen to a little Robert Plant..In The Mood.

Maybe that'll help you out...you need it.
Henri continues to look very impressive, I would think 60MPH winds at 11AM, imo. I'm also watching that vigorous looking tropical wave to its SE, shear will most likely tear it apart, but it should be highlighted yellow, imo.



As you can see, Henri's 850MB circulation is strong, and the wave to its SE is also strengthening.



With the latest steering currents I'm seeing (1000-1010 MSLP), I think that if Henri can survive the very strong shear, I think this will most likely end up somewhere near SFLA.



I'm out, Have a great Morning/Afternoon!

-MiamiHurricanes09
556. IKE
Quoting AtlantaMET:


It's the plain truth and many of us know it. You might not like it but I am honest. It's like saying Obama is black and people might not like it but it is the truth. Same concept here. What you are doing is not contributing the blog's education or welfare and you know it as much as I do. Stop being so subborn and listen to when poeple say these things because they are not telling a lie on you.


????????????????????????????????????????????

Quoting AtlantaMET:


Good morning Ike. Glad to see you. I have flagged and reported the jerk.
Quoting Mikla:
Henri w/ mid and upper shear. He still faces a good deal of shear 20-30 over the next day or two...
OMG, it's going to go over the dreaded (gasps) Hebert Box!!!! J/K, lol.
hey there "im in the mood now" thanks have a great day
560. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


Good morning Ike. Glad to see you. I have flagged and reported the jerk.


Good morning.

Think AtlantaMET is trying to provoke me. Fortunately I have my shields up.


Quoting leftovers:
hey there "im in the mood now" have a great day


Good taste in music.

76 degrees outside. Where's fall?
561. Relix
Henri is like a dead fish =P
560. IKE 7:33 AM EDT on October 07, 2009

Think AtlantaMET is trying to provoke me. Fortunately I have my shields up.


Yup. He is not smart enough to get to you. Good!
area of convection southeast of Henri, could be the big player of the 2009 season. Right now it has built convection, under very weak shear ,warm SST and has some cyclonic turning. The system is about 9oo miles ESE of the winward islands amd is gaining a little latitude. the problem is , should it survive and then enters the caribbean. where it is a cimatologically favoured area this time of year.
564. IKE
Henri is getting whipped with shear.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HENRI ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH




565. amd
good morning all. Looks like Henri continues to surprise. Despite substantial wind shear, and dry air to its nw, it continues to slowly strengthen (in terms of winds). Also, it is going almost due west, which is not surprising given that the system is still shallow (in terms of pressure).

If the storm can survive the next 36-48 hours, Henri could be a substantial problem. However, according to this water vapor imagery, dry air and shear at Henri's gate, I am not surprised that the NHC is calling for dissipation.
BR>
76 degrees outside. Where's fall?


Ive got 81 degrees with 96% humidity...ewwww
567. P451
Grace crossing England maintaining it's core and structure very nicely until the end.

568. IKE
Quoting CandiBarr:


Ive got 81 degrees with 96% humidity...ewwww


Cold front is suppose to make it down to the northern gulf-coast this weekend.

From NO,LA...

"LONG TERM...
MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT
THIS WEEKEND. FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY...AND
FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM GFS SOLUTION...WHICH ONLY COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD."
leftovers forecast? speculation. odd forecast for an odd yr. here it is. henris is history. going to turn into a tropical wave. the energy from the wave to the se will mix with tropical wave henri travel through the eastern carib with very heavy rains then potentially redevelop near jamaica. woops broke the crystal ball thats it i guess
Quoting IKE:


Cold front is suppose to make it down to the northern gulf-coast this weekend.

From NO,LA..

looks like the coastal car show could get wet, at least we wont feel like a crawfish at a La wedding :)
sry I shoulda previewed that
Morning all.

I see the area I pointed out yesterday to the SE of Henri is showing signs of organizing. Could pose a bigger threat than Henri based on it's forecast dissipation. Looks like an invest is in store today, 92L, as it will ride the north coast of South America, over water and into the Caribbean.
there are still tropical waves over africa and one about to exit the coast
Record heat today in SEFL, when will it end?
Heat indices to reach near 105 this afternoon..
it appears we may have a another tropical system to contend with in the very near future, i think henri will survive the shear and head towards hispaniola and then dissipate
576. amd
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Record heat today in SEFL, when will it end?
Heat indices to reach near 105 this afternoon..


same feeling here in Houston. It is more humid now than it has been all summer. Fortunately by Sunday, the forecast for Houston is a high of 76 and a low of 63. Right now, it's 81 degrees and the dew point is 79 degrees.

577. P451


Not many visible frames to work with in terms of a loop but it appears the LLC is under the north western portion of the convection.
Quoting amd:


same feeling here in Houston. It is more humid now than it has been all summer. Fortunately by Sunday, the forecast for Houston is a high of 76 and a low of 63. Right now, it's 81 degrees and the dew point is 79 degrees.



kprc says 58 for low eeee :D
579. IKE
Look for 92L within 24 hours.

Low shear all the way to the Caribbean....

Quoting IKE:
Look for 92L within 24 hours.

Low shear all the way to the Caribbean....

looks like this one will have an excellent shot at developing if it does not interact with any landmasses
581. P451
In a sped up loop of Dvorak imagery you can make out but not quite pinpoint the LLC. Yet you can tell it's more in the north-western region of the convection whereas last night it was pretty much on the dead western side.

582. P451
Quoting IKE:
Look for 92L within 24 hours.

Low shear all the way to the Caribbean....



And a lot of heat to work with. It's a good thing that Henri is fighting shear. If it weren't it would already be a monster IMO.

my gosh the names this year are crackin' me up!

My mom used to call my brother ahne-ree when he used his GI-Joe to assassinate my Barbie's and his At-At to stomp on my My-Little-ponies.

where is the origin of Ida?
584. IKE
Quoting P451:


And a lot of heat to work with. It's a good thing that Henri is fighting shear. If it weren't it would already be a monster IMO.



I agree with you on that.
585. P451
Just had a morning Tstorm roll through here in ECentral NJ. Woke up to 65 degrees at 530am, it was 70 by 6am. Had the storm, it's now dropped back to 66. Sticky muggy air. Won't last long, thankfully.
with the expected demise of Henri tonight, this will leave room for the disturbance to it;s southeast to flourish, now with such a conducive envtronment i expect the disturbed area ESE of the winwards to be classified as 92L during the course of today. i anticipate this system will form into the next named storm IDA the next few days.
Good morning

Well, I see that the bend back to the W has come sooner than forecasted which I posted yesterday morning might well happen. I progged this system to be just SE of PR by Thursday and that may also verify.

Hard to believe it has handled the shear so well.
588. IKE
Pre92L looks like a low-runner. Appears to be moving north of west. Moving at a good clip.
Quoting IKE:
Pre92L looks like a low-runner. Appears to be moving north of west. Moving at a good clip.


And sitting under an anticyclone with low shear levels ahead.

If it can avoid SA this could pose big problems down the road.
Back later
Good muggy morning all. I guess it's drier today. Yesterday we had 100% humidity. Lol. Water's rolling down the windows and it's not raining. Come on with the cold front already!


Beaumont, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 37 sec ago
Clear
80 °F
Clear
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 79 °F
593. IKE
Shear has been decreasing around Henri and quite significantly so.

This should allow for further improvement today.
Is Henri still expected to go north of the antilles?
597. IKE
Quoting CandiBarr:
Is Henri still expected to go north of the antilles?


Oppressive humidity. Feels like August:

Hammond Municipal Airport
Lat: 30.52 Lon: -90.42 Elev: 43
Last Update on Oct 7, 7:22 am CDT

Fog/Mist

82 °F (28 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.03"
Dewpoint: 81 °F (27 °C)
Heat Index: 93 °F (34 °C)

Visibility: 5.00 mi.
It looks like unless shear ramps up again the NHC will continue to extend the forecast gone.
Forgive a completely amateur question here, but which way is Henri moving right now? Looking at the convection it looks to be moving just south of due west. Would that be a temporary jog or a track change? Thanks!
Quoting DookiePBC:
Forgive a completely amateur question here, but which way is Henri moving right now? Looking at the convection it looks to be moving just south of due west. Would that be a temporary jog or a track change? Thanks!


convection is not a good indicator of movement. Looking on visible or microwave imagery, or radar when close to land, is a good way to know movement.
new disturbance, no surface low. there is a mid level circulation near 10N 46W
603. IKE
Henri appears to be moving just north of west.
hmm, so what you guys are saying is yes, i suppose. the reason I ask is b/c on loops it just looks like its going directly for them + 456 isnt here.

Ima noob tho.
Good Morning Ike, Kman and the rest of you all!

Henri is holding his own against the shear, though the convergent upper level flow that is forecast would tend to decrease convection. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out... By now the LLC is so well developed that even if it decouples, the LLC could regenerate at a later point.

Also, the area of storms to the southeast will continue to find itself in a low shear environment (much more conducive than Henri) over the next several days. It just needs a tug or two to the north and then it would be a Caribbean problem.
After the short jog left Oct 2-3, I had figured the MJO was going to try one more round about circle in the WPac. Instead it turned back & has tracked toward the Atlantic since.

Henri is moving Westward as a pointed out by me and other blogger yesterday night. Advisories should be issue at 11am for the nothermost Leeward island it is not going north anytime soon, NHC compleatly miss this one. Remember when the post it the red alert "Henri will pass Far north of the noethen island" when I read that only one exprecion came to my mind was LOL! They are smoking good stuff.
Quoting IKE:
Henri appears to be moving just north of west.


KK, must just be the appearance the deep convention is giving me. b/c my eyes see due west, my brain see's somethin else. LOL
610. IKE
My hometown....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Clear
76.1 °F
Clear
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 76 °F

Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 75 °F
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Henri too a jog to the SW last night but had resumed a generally Western motion with a little northern component. Too small infact to be considered WNW thus W is the call.
BAM models
613. amd
Quoting antonio28:
Henri is moving Westward as a pointed out by me and other blogger yesterday night. Advisories should be issue at 11am for the nothermost Leeward island it is not going north anytime soon, NHC compleatly miss this one. Remember when the post it the red alert "Henri will pass Far north of the noethen island" when I read that only one exprecion came to my mind was LOL! They are smoking good stuff.


that would be me. And, yes, since it is embedded within the low-level flow (because pressures with Henri are still relatively high), it will continue to move west.

Also, for those who say don't follow the convection, the shear for Henri is supposed to be out of the sw to ne, however convection is building to the sw. This means two possible things:

1) Shear may be beginning to lessen
2) Henri is trying to move south of due west.

These two things need to be watched closely over the next few hours.

Have to leave for work, everyone have a good day.
g'morning, all! interesting times coming up ahead for the carib. everyone down there, plz stay safe, especially our two buds, 456 and kamn.
Quoting amd:


that would be me. And, yes, since it is embedded within the low-level flow (because pressures with Henri are still relatively high), it will continue to move west.

Also, for those who say don't follow the convection, the shear for Henri is supposed to be out of the sw to ne, however convection is building to the sw. This means two possible things:

1) Shear may be beginning to lessen
2) Henri is trying to move south of due west.

These two things need to be watched closely over the next few hours.

Have to leave for work, everyone have a good day.


See my post 594. Shear has been falling quickly
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good Morning Storm. :)
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?


Up in Canada where its turning cold....lol
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?


Putting up shutters !
621. CUBWF
Good Morning everyone. The center appear to be exposed again moving a more to the wnw. 18.8 and 56.7. Some dry air to the nw could be another problem for Henri to deal with.
Quoting kmanislander:


Putting up shutters !


LMAO
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?


passed out behind the "Taco" stand...

heh heh
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2009

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 18.4N 55.3W AT 0300 UTC WITH WINDS OF 40
KT WITHIN GUSTS TO 50 KT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 18.4N 55.3W WED MORNING AND WEAKEN FURTHER
TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION BY 20.5N59/7W WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.8N 61.9W THU MORNING AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
20 KT/8 FT CRITERIA OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AROUND MID-DAY
THU.

I'm thinking this might be a little off. :)
Quoting kmanislander:


Putting up shutters !


Out trying to sell some!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Out trying to sell some!


LOL

Seriously though, I hope nothing makes it to the NW Caribbean. Cat 5 if it does.
07/1145 UTC 18.7N 56.4W T2.5/2.5 HENRI -- Atlantic
Interesting to look at all the pieces to Henri's future...

SHIPS shows weakening westerly shear swinging around to the north and then to the northeast...which would be a postive for strengthening.

However, the 200mb divergence goes from being favorable (+) now to negative (convergence) in 12 hours which should reduce convection.

Also, the 850 environmental vorticity becomes VERY unfavorable as anti-cyclonic flow around the ridge centered over Florida builds in.

12UTC SHIPS FORECAST
if you look at post 612 the BAM models just switched South again.......heck 10minutes ago they stayed over water into the Bahamas! Models are going to bounce around a bit more with this as it nearly stalls.
630. CUBWF
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
07/1145 UTC 18.7N 56.4W T2.5/2.5 HENRI -- Atlantic

I think I was close. lol
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL

Seriously though, I hope nothing makes it to the NW Caribbean. Cat 5 if it does.


ON a very serious note your correct if its under low shear....the Heat Content there is unreal and deep depths.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Daily Chuckles in Comments section


MELOR
Forecast Storm Position
Oct 7 - 18:00 UTC
Typhoon
Maximum winds of 075 knots
Gusts to 090 knots
Latitude: 33.6
Longitude: 135.5
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?
They have gone real quiet this morning(good morning to you)
Convectiong waning a bit near the center...allowing it to become exposed again...

They are in the Daily Chuckles section! That's where they belong.......LOL
At least I laugh out loud, not just type some lame "LOL."
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?


''Gone'', like the pack of cowards that THEY are. Good morning to you, Senior Chief.
It's also about time for the "its gonna destroy Florida" contingent to show up!
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Convectiong waning a bit near the center...allowing it to become exposed again...



Yep. Just goes to show how some satellite shots are deceiving. I thought it was at 18n that clearly looks like 19n. And moving just north of west. Thanks for posting that.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's also about time for the "its gonna destroy Florida" contingent to show up!


Yes sir Doug.... Cat 8 with 450 mph winds and a 76 foot storm surge. (incase you didn't know, that was a j/k LOL)
Re 636.
He's both; has intelligence AND wit. Take a clue.

G'morning, StormW, really looking forward to your update...coming soon?
The "nose" knows...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's also about time for the "its gonna destroy Florida" contingent to show up!
That's going to happen if any model decides to randomly select Florida. Until then, the blog can proceed in peace.
Good Morning. Having trouble interpreting the current CIMSS shear chart. Looks like Henri is slipping west of the noted band of 30-40 knots and the next noted band of 20 knots is to it's W/NW at around 20N/60W with Henri in the middle right now between the two. Anyone have a guess at what the sheer over Henri is right now (during the course of today) or do I just assume anywhere between 20-30 knots for the time being?

Thanks.
648. ackee
does any model devlop pre92L it looks going into SA no surface low either not convince
Quoting JF939410:
RE: 642

Kissy. kissy, kissy...

I am thinking of the color "brown..."


Thats not only uncalled for, your also wrong.
StormW is a Met.. and when the situation warrants it, he can be quite humorous. He does not do it on here very often.. but when he does its a good one.
Quoting StormW:
Where's all the "seasons over" folks?


Maybe they are at the Sams Club or Costco looking for a deal on bulk crow, A1 and maybe a little wsweet and sour sauce....
644.
Oh, that's easy, that would be the color of your aura.
I've made a promise to myself never to be mean-spirited on this blog; it's a learning and information tool -- so I'm out now, nothing I need to "win" here. Have a nice day, seriously.
new blog
653. IKE
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting amd:


that would be me. And, yes, since it is embedded within the low-level flow (because pressures with Henri are still relatively high), it will continue to move west.

Also, for those who say don't follow the convection, the shear for Henri is supposed to be out of the sw to ne, however convection is building to the sw. This means two possible things:

1) Shear may be beginning to lessen
2) Henri is trying to move south of due west.

These two things need to be watched closely over the next few hours.

Have to leave for work, everyone have a good day.


I am home sick so I will be entretain by Henri and the NHC folks, they will have it right in the next advisory is too close to land.
I said in an earlier post .should this new disturbance get into the caribbean, then it will be talk of the 2009 hurricane season
As quickly as Henri came to life he may just as quickly fizzle out. NHC is definitely of that opinion due to the immediate adverse environment he'll have to get through today.