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Tropical Storm Helene arrives; 94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

After a long path across the Atlantic that mirrored the track of Hurricane Ernesto, Tropical Depression Seven finally got its act together enough over the Bay of Campeche tropical storm breeding grounds to earn the name Helene. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's eighth storm. Most of this year's storms have been weak, though, so the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 21 is not that much higher than the normal year-to-date ACE of 15, based on a 1981 - 2010 ACE climatology. The normal yearly ACE for the Atlantic is 104. Helene doesn't have much room to work with before landfall, but has the potential to be a prodigious rainmaker for Mexico, with NHC predicting 5 - 10 inches for portions of Northeast Mexico. This part of the coast is not in drought, so will be prone to heavy flooding. Fortunately, Ernesto's main rains fell to the south of where Helene's rains are falling. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, though we can't rule out a few thunderstorms bringing 1 - 2 inches of rain to extreme South Texas on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Helene.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GFS morning esembles hint at recurve in terms of US which i might add is still very much on the table. Problem is might not be in time to spare the islands. Plenty of time to watch this one.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Could Helene regenerate in The Gulf again by the look at track? Is HH in Helene yet?


Some models have been regenerating it the entire time, or else re-developing something else...

I think it needs to finish ejecting the old mid-level circulation before it can start re-intensifying.

It should only take another 6 to 12 hours to get it out of the way, I guess...


Some of the convection blobs over the BoC are far enough away from the mid-level rotation so that they may be able to form a new circulation entirely. Perhaps that's what the models are developing.
Pay attention to the animals as they could be the first one to tell you a storm is coming.Micheal Laca sent me a video of his chase in PR,and he showed how the hoarse's were running to higher ground to get to safety.
Quoting hurricane23:


A threat to the islands is looking increasingly probable as what will be issac should really intensify as it approaches them. After that this far out its really anyones guess.

Here's a look at the 00z GFS esembles...



Hi Adrian. You think there will be no troughs to recurve it before the NE Caribbean islands?
Quoting Grothar:
Another one ready to go for a swim. Hey, who was the guy who wrote that there wouldn't be much of a Cape Verde season this year. That the Atlantic would shut down?

This one looks ready to give the CVIs a really good soaking on the way out...

Quoting stoormfury:
ISLANDERS 6 DAYS TO ISAAC ARRIVAL. BARRING A MIRACULOUS RECURVE.
Wouldn't be that miraculous, IMO. Miraculous is Irene missing New Providence by 50 to the east instead of 50 to the west, as had originally been forecast. 7 days out, just about anything could happen...
1506. sar2401
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8Am not good for S FL!!


From what I can see, there is exactly one model that takes this storm into SFL. There about as many models that want to recurve it out to sea as want to take it west. Until 94L actually become at least a TD, it seems prudent not to get too excited about what any individual modesl are showing.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8Am not good for S FL!!
Still not that close to FL. Bahamas could be in cone. Although Floyd caused a lot of uneasiness in 1999.
Quoting LargoFl:
Hmmmm the weather here by me is getting very interesting, dark clouds all around, but not a drop of rain yet by my house..i see a good one gearing up to come onshore shortly..might get some bad weather here in pinellas..............
Is this from the front that's supposed to be pulling Helene???

Quoting LargoFl:
Tampa put the shields up, you got a good one about to hit you folks...............
Tampa shields about to get knocked down, starting to flood in my location, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, we really hit the jackpot, Largo.
Dont see a reason why this one wont become a significant cyclone treking towards the islands next week.
1511. LargoFl
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
919 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

GMZ830-850-853-873-181415-
919 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 913 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS FROM 10 NM
NORTHEAST OF HILLSBOROUGH BAY TO 31 NM WEST OF EGMONT KEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2751 8264 2746 8265 2737 8255 2742 8345
2808 8339 2820 8278 2787 8285 2781 8278
2784 8275 2772 8269 2770 8265 2783 8261
2793 8273 2804 8269 2800 8256 2784 8254
2783 8248 2792 8250 2796 8243 2785 8235

$$
1512. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tampa shields about to get knocked down, starting to flood in my location, we really hit the jackpot, Largo.
whoohoo this is a real good one alright GT
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8Am not good for S FL!!


No dis-respect to persons in the Greater Antilles but, the good thing is that there are a lot of mountains along 94L's way to SFL.
1514. LargoFl
wow lightning and boomers and my street is like a river.............
18August06amGMT's 21.3n96.5w has been re-evaluated&altered
18August12pmGMT's 21.5n96.8w-22.2n97.8w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionHelene for 18August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 1007millibars to 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 35knots(40mph)65km/h to 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed 317.0*NWest@11mph(17.7km/h) to 307.0*NWest@13.4mph(21.5km/h)

CVM-CiudadVictoria
TAM-Tampico :: MMNU-Nautla :: VER-Veracruz :: VER-Ciudad del Carmen :: CPE-Campeche

The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where exTD.7's became a TropicalDepression again
The next dot NNWest of that dot is where TD.7 became TropicalStormHelene
The final dot is where TS.Helene became a TropicalDepression again at landfall

The longest line is a straightline projection thru exTD.7's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
17August6pmGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over LaPesca (nearCVMdumbbell,bottom)
18August12amGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over El Porvenir (nearCVMdumbbell,top)
18August6amGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over Altamira (TAMdumbell,top)
18August12pmGMT: exTD.7 made landfall near Tampico

Copy&paste 23.9n97.75w-24.575n97.661w, cvm, tam, mmnu, ver, cme, cpe, pcm, 19.2n90.7w- 19.3n92.6w- 19.3n94.2w- 19.7n95.2w- 19.9n95.7w, 19.9n95.7w-20.3n95.9w, 20.3n95.9w-20.8n96.1w, 20.8n96.1w-21.5n96.8w, 20.8n96.1w-22.546n97.86w, 21.5n96.8w-22.2n97.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting SLU:


Very high.


o.k. heads up on this one
Quoting islandgirls:
Good morning all. I see there's much excitement re: 94L
where the Lesser Antilles comes into focus. What are the chances of it affecting the Northern Antilles, more particularly Guadeloupe to Anguilla?

Anticipating a response

Thanks
It's possible. Currently some models are bringing it your way. I'd say this is a good time to give a little more attention to NHC website.

Which one of the Leewards are u in... [Antigua???]
Quoting sar2401:


There's a chance 94L could affect the Lesser Antilles, Northern Antilles, PR, Cuba, Florida, Georgia, SC, NC, and on up the coast. There's also a chance it could recurve out to see and only threaten Bermuda. Regardless of all the models runs being thrown about here, 94L is still an invest, and models are notoriously bad about forecasting both track and intensity at this stage of the game. It's hurricane season. You should be prepared for any type of tropical storm, and now's the time to start, if you haven't already. 94L will develop into something and go somewhere, but it's far too early to give anything more than a chance guess. Keep an eye on the storm and models over the five days. We should have a much better idea of what's going to happen then. Until then, take any post in all caps and with lots of exclamation points with a grain of salt, especially if it includes WOW!. :)


Duly Noted
Evening all.

To me this is a scary scenario



That looks like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 of the coast of NC.

btw I know it's a long way out but....
Don't be surprised if Helene reforms its center more in the boc.
1521. LargoFl
ATCF says Helene is now a TD.
1523. Gorty
Does any models develop the next wave ready to leave Africa?
As I said last night on the blog by the time future Isaac reaches the U.S it will probably be by Labor day weekend.As we all know people have major plans/vacations.Hopefully he recurves before the U.S.Or it is going to get really ugly for millions of people..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pay attention to the animals as they could be the first one to tell you a storm is coming.Micheal Laca sent me a video of his chase in PR,and he showed how the hoarse's were running to higher ground to get to safety.
Quoting sar2401:


There's a chance 94L could affect the Lesser Antilles, Northern Antilles, PR, Cuba, Florida, Georgia, SC, NC, and on up the coast. There's also a chance it could recurve out to see and only threaten Bermuda. Regardless of all the models runs being thrown about here, 94L is still an invest, and models are notoriously bad about forecasting both track and intensity at this stage of the game. It's hurricane season. You should be prepared for any type of tropical storm, and now's the time to start, if you haven't already. 94L will develop into something and go somewhere, but it's far too early to give anything more than a chance guess. Keep an eye on the storm and models over the five days. We should have a much better idea of what's going to happen then. Until then, take any post in all caps and with lots of exclamation points with a grain of salt, especially if it includes WOW!. :)


One thing I look for in the models... Consistency. If a model is constantly showing development and strong development over many runs, watch for the other models coming into agreement.
Quoting dartboardmodel:
Quick question for you guys… I have just recently moved to Charleston S.C. and I was wondering if I should be worried about 94L??? I have never lived by the ocean before and I obviously have never experienced a tropical storm or hurricane before. The funny thing is I always wanted to experience what one would be like but I don’t want to be blown away by a Cat. 3 or higher. I guess I have mixed feelings about it.
Good to see you in the blog... 94L is still so far out that anybody actively worrying about it is stressing a little too much. OTOH.... if you live in Charleston, it's always a good idea to keep track of what's going in on in the tropics, especially during August and September. Even a simple look at NHCs homepage will at least keep you abreast of concerns the tropical cyclone experts are tracking.

Of course, the more INTERESTING way of following what's going on is IMO by hanging out in the Doc's blog... lol

Quoting washingtonian115:
Wouldn't be surprise to see Gordon become a 85-90mph storm.


Max intensity map suggests it could be high end of cat 2 based on pressure, or low end of cat 4 based on max winds.

However, that formula only works for ideal conditions.

Based on the map, it could be as low as 970mb at 35N 30W, which it's supposed to pass close to, but it would either be topped out at that intensity, or else already be weakening...


So I'd say the pressure could theoretically go 10 to 15mb lower at the most, since this is only mediocre conditions.

If it was to strengthen that much more, it would definitely need to accomplish it within the next 36 hours, else it will be over water not warm enough for further strengthening.

1529. Grothar
This is the actual GFS model run which I posted earlier this morning. Very close consensus with the
GFS models. However, other models want to move 94L more to the WNW and NW right before they enter the Antilles. However, since last night, the models are moving 94L on the curve a little later in each run.


Quoting Gorty:
Does any models develop the next wave ready to leave Africa?
I think that's the one the models develop into Joyce right in behind Isaac.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's possible. Currently some models are bringing it your way. I'd say this is a good time to give a little more attention to NHC website.

Which one of the Leewards are u in... [Antigua???]


Yes. Just wanted to know what I am (we are) are up against
Looking at the last several model runs especially the GFS, I think by late Sunday we should have a good handle on the approach to islands.

By mid week we should have a very good idea if it is gonna turn or maintain a wnw -nw heading.

What I do not like what I am seeing in the GFS runs is that once they lock on to a system it has been pretty much dead on.

It will be interesting to see how it handles a fully developed CV system versus the earlier shallow and sheared systems we have had so far.
According to this Helene may not be toast.
1534. LargoFl
wow this is a bad one..bet over 2 inches already and still going..going to be flooding in the low lying areas quick..................get ready Tampa..this is all coming to you..slow mover too.............
Quoting Thing342:
ATCF says Helene is now a TD.

Helene has been a TD or weaker for most of her life as she wandered about.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pay attention to the animals as they could be the first one to tell you a storm is coming.Micheal Laca sent me a video of his chase in PR,and he showed how the hoarse's were running to higher ground to get to safety.
The video Micheal Laca sent, is that from his Hurricane Hugo Chase in 1989?
1537. Gorty
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think that's the one the models develop into Joyce right in behind Isaac.


Could Gordon and Issac moisten up the environment for Joyce?
You know GFS did a pretty good job in sniffing out the track of Ernesto and keeping it a weak system until it reached the N.W caribbean even before he develop..
1539. gugi182
Ships models putting 94L at 120 hours at a Cateogry 3 Major Hurricane with 120 MPH winds.
Helene should have been down-graded to a remnant low about 18 hours ago...

It probably never should have been named.
Very calm in northeast st. pete right now...but a lot of dark clouds and lightning to my NW over Largo.
Look at Hurricane Gordon go...7/3/0



The Southern Azores Islands need to keep an eye on this one.



1543. Gorty
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know GFS did a pretty good job in sniffing out the track of Ernesto and keeping it a weak system until it reached the N.W caribbean even before he develop..


And I think it did a pretty good job with Gordon taking it a while before developing.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
But, I do agree with Levi's prior assessment on a re-curve between 65-80. Personally think it will be closer to the 75-80 mark.
Whether or not this passes through the CAR or not, I have a hard time seeing a recurve with this system before 70W. Quite a few pple kept drawing attention to the way Helene basically festered for five days in the western GOM on the forecast maps, rather than heading west [i.e. due to the high building back]. I can buy a weakness in the vicinity of the east coast later next week.

1545. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..slept in late hanging with the night shift..so the Euro is going west into the GOM and the GFS is recurving..
1546. LargoFl
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Very calm in northeast st. pete right now...but a lot of dark clouds and lightning to my NW over Largo.
yes really booming here..seems to be letting up just a little now..whew we needed that rain...............
Quoting gugi182:
Ships models putting 94L at 120 hours at a Cateogry 3 Major Hurricane with 120 MPH winds.

The shear forecast on the latest SHIPS run is almost scary: No more than 6kts of shear after 18 hours.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
The video Micheal Laca sent, is that from his Hurricane Hugo Chase in 1989?

This?

1549. Patrap
Helene Rainbow Loop


1550. LargoFl
1551. mati
The Southern Azores Islands need to keep an eye on this one.


When was the last Hurricane to hit Portugal?
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know GFS did a pretty good job in sniffing out the track of Ernesto and keeping it a weak system until it reached the N.W caribbean even before he develop..
And it has done well with Gordon with maybe the exception of it rolling off Africa as a storm, but it gets a pass from me.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
The video Micheal Laca sent, is that from his Hurricane Hugo Chase in 1989?
Yes.
Quoting Gorty:


Could Gordon and Issac moisten up the environment for Joyce?
Well Gordon is all the way up north in the Atlantic XD.But it's a good possibility that Isaac could moisten the environment to help Joyce survive.Especially since he is expected to be a huge storm.
1554. Patrap
Hunting Hugo
By Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D. — Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground, Inc.



In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

— Dr. Jeff Masters (Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground, Inc.)
1555. LargoFl
1556. gugi182
Looks like this will be the last year they used the name: ISSAC for a name, just the name sounds haunting. ISSAC
Quoting Patrap:
Helene Rainbow Loop



That dry belt of air N of Helene ain't helping much, but looks like it's about to get mixed out.
Gordon is pushing Category 2 hurricane intensity according to some satellite-derived intensity estimates.

1559. SLU
12z 94L shear forecast

SHEAR (KT) 25 18 11 6 6 4 6 6 4 3 2 5 4

SHIPS takes it to 105kts and the LGEM to 103kts in 120hrs ..GULP.
1560. LargoFl
Maybe topped out.

The upper level winds on the south side are too strong and in the wrong direction.



Fixed
1563. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is this from the front that's supposed to be pulling Helene???



No, just seabreeze type storms. The front that supposed to drag Helene along is still hung up in north Alabama and now looks like it wants to turn stationary. The high that's currently over the Indiana/Ohio area may push what's left of the front further south by Monday or Tuesday but it's not going to be a major player in anything that develops in GOM.
1564. Gorty
Quoting RTSplayer:
Helene should have been down-graded to a remnant low about 18 hours ago...

It probably never should have been named.


Im gonna tell you what I tell other people: If the NHC believes something meets the criteria for a TS, then they name it. They believed Ex TD7 met all the requirements for a TS so they named it.

They know a lot more than us.
1565. LargoFl
1566. Patrap
Tossing Storm Names around TD's that arent a TS yet is awful confusing to Lurkers and others.

Please keep the designation given currently to avoid
Confusion,
Thats why we have names, to keep the Logic flowing.

Thanx
Quoting LargoFl:
wow this is a bad one..bet over 2 inches already and still going..going to be flooding in the low lying areas quick..................get ready Tampa..this is all coming to you..slow mover too.............


You must be getting it a lot worse than Clearwater because I just checked the Pinellas County weather station in downtown Clw and they have received .42 inches so far.
1568. Patrap
Tropical Storm Irene was designated in two days. It looks like Isaac will too.

They may take similar paths.
1570. sar2401
Quoting mati:


When was the last Hurricane to hit Portugal?


Gordon 2006. Caused damage in Portugal and Spain.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Irene was designated in two days. It looks like Isaac will too.

They may take the same paths.
Ohhh no they won't(according to my model).
1572. dearmas
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8Am not good for S FL!!


Guess what will be here in Tampa about that time frame....RNC. Guess we will seeif all the drills//training that has been going on for months will be needed
1573. Gorty
Active August! We could very will have 5 storms! Maybe 6... Joyce? Or Joyce will start off September.
Quoting tatoprweather:
PR mets just watching this one for now but I'm just beginning to prepare. I have a second home in Rincon and the main one in Bayamon so I need to left both hurricane ready. What would be a better place as a shelter is this thing decides to make an unwelcome visit: Rincon which is located to the west of the island or Bayamon just SW of San Juan?
A lot depends on the track, yes? But I'd say Bayamon, thinking about how hilly Rincon is by comparison.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


No dis-respect to persons in the Greater Antilles but, the good thing is that there are a lot of mountains along 94L's way to SFL.
Unless, of course, it follows the example of past doozies and hits PR then turns west over the Bahamas. There are all sorts of possibilities with this one, based on the models, so I'm not making too much of a commitment to any one scenario... lol...

I just hope Caribboy hasn't wished for more than he can handle...

From me
1577. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
Tossing Storm Names around TD's that arent a TS yet is awful confusing to Lurkers and others.

Please keep the designation given currently to avoid
Confusion,
Thats why we have names, to keep the Logic flowing.

Thanx


Excellent point, Pat. 94L is still 94L until the NHC changes things. Issac is still in the future, along with Joyce and all the rest of the alphabet. :)
This shows wave heights are forecast to be 35-40 ft. when 94L gets to the islands.
question- it might sound a bit mathmatical.... my friends leave on a cruise from
ft lauderdle on Sunday towards St Thomas/Virgin Islands and they are to return on Saturday AM on the 25th. With the possible progression and intensification of invest 94 and equating in the return time back to FTL from the islands....will this storm pose a possible problem for them and the ship's route. I have my abacus out now! ;)
1580. Patrap


1582. LargoFl
Quoting wxmobilejim:
This shows wave heights are forecast to be 35-40 ft. when 94L gets to the islands.
my god..we sure hope this turns
1583. Gorty
With Issac, 2012 will be more active then 2005 in August!
1584. Patrap
Quoting KeyWestwx:
question- it might sound a bit mathmatical.... my friends leave on a cruise from
ft lauderdle on Sunday towards St Thomas/Virgin Islands and they are to return on Saturday AM on the 25th. With the possible progression and intensification of invest 94 and equating in the return time back to FTL from the islands....will this storm pose a possible problem for them and the ship's route. I have my abacus out now! ;)


Best to contact your Travel Agent or check directly with the Cruise Line for their updates, they do them every 6 Hrs.


1585. sar2401
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From me


From you...for a week out...but still has the Accu Weather name on it. Since you're doing this in Paintshop, maybe you can clean that up some.
Q. What will 94L be at 2PM
A. 40%
B. 50%
C. 60%
D. 70%
I will say 50 to 60% at 2PM
Should see a Code Red later.

1588. ncstorm


Ok i will:)
Quoting sar2401:


From you...for a week out...but still has the Accu Weather name on it. Since you're doing this in Paintshop, maybe you can clean that up some.
Quoting LargoFl:
<
Quoting LargoFl:
good soaking rain there! my lawn service has to come twice a month now with all the rain. I have a house in venice, south of Sarasota
Heavy rain just started here too. We already got a fair amount of rain overnight.



Doesn't look like it'll last too long... and not at all windy.
Quoting Gorty:
With Issac, 2012 will be more active then 2005 in August!
But you see in August the "K" storm had formed and made the month and year very memorable..
06z GFS animation:

1594. LargoFl
Quoting dearmas:


Guess what will be here in Tampa about that time frame....RNC. Guess we will seeif all the drills//training that has been going on for months will be needed
..well so far so good for the Tampa area..but things can and do often change with time..this storm may well go up the east coast, in which case we may get some rains etc..this front coming down to us may well be our savior..pushing it east of us..hopefully
1595. mati
Quoting sar2401:


Gordon 2006. Caused damage in Portugal and Spain.


OHO, the return of Gordon, Gordon Gordonson?
1596. Gorty
Quoting washingtonian115:
But you see in August the "K" storm had formed and made the month and year very memorable..


And this year it could be the "I" storm.
1597. LargoFl
Quoting KeyWestwx:
oh yes..great rains here..and still pouring down
Well, the Ships isn't playing games at all with 94L. It says 105kts, land or no land, at 120 hours.

Somebody in the Lesser Antilles and PR area is going to get it right on the chin.

May as well start getting ready now.


Quoting islandgirls:


Yes. Just wanted to know what I am (we are) are up against
Cool... I remembered [a great accomplishment for me lol] ...

Yeah, Antigua definitely needs to keep an eye on this one... even if it misses most of the rest of the Antilles, u guys still might get a bit of a blow.

1600. LargoFl
1601. Gorty
Quoting Gorty:


And this year it could be the "I" storm.


Actually let's put this in retrospective (not sure if I used that word right :p) 2012 has been so active that when Issac forms we will only be two storms away from where 2005 was around the time when Issac forms.
1602. SLU
Steady march towards major hurricane status

Quoting Patrap:



Pat, I notice you haven't noticed the little spin S of Cuba heading towards the gap. The Wisconsin CIMSS two-day movie shows order out of chaos - ordo ab chao - within the last 48.
Quoting Patrap:


Best to contact your Travel Agent or check directly with the Cruise Line for their updates, they do them every 6 Hrs.


ok- but I wanted the opinions from the experts on this board.
Yep...NHC seems a bit concerned about it.

"Lastly, a westward-moving tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system now has about a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This is the time of year for those long-track Cape Verde cyclones, and it seems likely we'll be talking about this system for a week or longer. Stay tuned."
1606. LargoFl
Quoting KeyWestwx:
question- it might sound a bit mathmatical.... my friends leave on a cruise from
ft lauderdle on Sunday towards St Thomas/Virgin Islands and they are to return on Saturday AM on the 25th. With the possible progression and intensification of invest 94 and equating in the return time back to FTL from the islands....will this storm pose a possible problem for them and the ship's route. I have my abacus out now! ;)


there will be a storm in the area as per model dipiction 06z saturday the 25th 12 z
keep up to date with cruselines update system and follow NHC/NOAA/local NWS for official updates

1608. Dakster
What is the consensus on when 94L will get a name?
1609. Patrap
Quoting KeyWestwx:
ok- but I wanted the opinions from the experts on this board.



Well, that's Kinda like rolling the dice here.

: )


Good morning people,The EURO shows a weaker system,but looks the strong ridge, i´m starting doubting this storm will recurve
Just a beautiful storm...



(hurricane gordon took today)
1612. Patrap
Quoting redwagon:

Pat, I notice you haven't noticed the little spin S of Cuba heading towards the gap. The Wisconsin CIMSS two-day movie shows order out of chaos - ordo ab chao - within the last 48.


Just up from well, one Dog delivered 4 pups here last night but I'll take a gander at it now.

Thanx
1613. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:
What is the consensus on when 94L will get a name?
Around some time late Sunday into Monday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gordon is pushing Category 2 hurricane intensity according to some satellite-derived intensity estimates.

Eye looks to be clearing out, too.
1616. ncstorm
06z GFS Ensembles Spread







Quoting SLU:
Steady march towards major hurricane status


Actually those intensity models look a good deal lower for intensity than previous cycles, which in the short term I think is more realistic. It's very unlikely 94L will be a Cat 4 in 5 days like some earlier models suggested. Still a good chance it becomes a major eventually, but not within the next few days.
1618. ncstorm
the 00z CMC
1619. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Tossing Storm Names around TD's that arent a TS yet is awful confusing to Lurkers and others.

Please keep the designation given currently to avoid
Confusion,
Thats why we have names, to keep the Logic flowing.

Thanx
Excellent post Pat, I was thrown off a tad with the misnomers.
1620. Dakster
Quoting washingtonian115:
Around some time late Sunday into Monday.


Thx.

Looking like this could be a long week.
1621. ackee
I think 94L will track similar to how the GFS is tracking it NE carrb could be hit by a Major I think this year the GFS has been out performing the other models by far. Ecmwf SEEM LIKE it needs a upgrade it has been performing below par this seasons
Oh My God...

If the GFS is best on timing, and the Ships intensity is within 10kts of the correct value for 120 hours, then it's SW of PR and SE of Dominican republic at 168 hours...

However, the intensity is forecast as 105kts at the 120 hours mark, which the GFS says will still be 12 to 18 hours east of the Lesser Antilles.

If this was to verify, then it would pass the Lesser Antilles as a strong category 3 or weak category 4, and continue intensifying until near landfall (or if it makes the pass anyway).


So these scenarios from the most recent SHIPS and GFS are just terrible compared to earlier runs.
1623. Patrap
That feature shows up nicely below Cuba in the WV loop

GOM WV Loop
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Actually those intensity models look a good deal lower for intensity than previous cycles, which in the short term I think is more realistic. It's very unlikely 94L will be a Cat 4 in 5 days like some earlier models suggested. Still a good chance it becomes a major eventually, but not within the next few days.

None of them have showed Category 4 intensity yet...the guidance is remaining very straightforward that this will be a major hurricane in a few days.
1625. LargoFl
gee havent seen mean pouring rain and boomers and tons of lightning like this in a LONG time..and still going..quite a storm coming to you Tampa..long lasting too..stay safe..if your area floods easily..
Quoting Patrap:



Well, that's Kinda like rolling the dice here.

: )


yeah... it looks as the storm , if it heads that direction , will start to impact the lesser antillies by Friday and the boat should be on its way home by that time.I'm house and dog sitting for them this week. We all live in Key West.
Looks to still be strengthening, eye is becoming more defined ans convection is increasing.
1628. LargoFl
good morning guys....gordon going good today
Tx13,you think Gordon weakens the Ridge or it has no effect at all?
Quoting stormchaser19:
Good morning people,The EURO shows a weaker system,but looks the strong ridge, i´m starting doubting this storm will recurve


I'm starting to think it could recurve in the GOM
hmm...

anyway Good Morning guys
1632. ncstorm
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh My God...

If the GFS is best on timing, and the Ships intensity is within 10kts of the correct value for 120 hours, then it's SW of PR and SE of Dominican republic at 168 hours...

However, the intensity is forecast as 105kts at the 120 hours mark, which the GFS says will still be 12 to 18 hours east of the Lesser Antilles.

If this was to verify, then it would pass the Lesser Antilles as a strong category 3 or weak category 4, and continue intensifying until near landfall (or if it makes the pass anyway).


So these scenarios from the most recent SHIPS and GFS are just terrible compared to earlier runs.


the people of the lesser antilles should start experiencing 94L conditions by early as wednesday with wave height and then wind and rain to follow
94L already looks like banding with center at 12.5/30.
Lord here we go..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13,you think Gordon weakens the Ridge or it has no effect at all?

Very little effect.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
good morning guys....gordon going good today

Up to a hurricane, waiting on the next advisory which will be soon and we have the invest that could be a big problem for many people. Also dont forget Helene since she could try to strengthen later. Bust season, I dont think so.
Quoting hydrus:
Excellent post Pat, I was thrown off a tad with the misnomers.


yep right now its nothing but a dipiction on a model and as for a name well at the moment its 94L thats it
1638. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lord here we go..
Still want to experience a hurricane? You can, would not advise it.
Gordon remains at 80 mph in this advisory. Forecast to intensify slightly before entering cooler waters and higher wind shear. Meanwhile, Helene has weakened to a TD.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...HELENE MOVES INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO...WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Helene downgraded to a TD: Wind: 35 MPH — Location: 22.0N 98.0W — Movement: NW
1642. Gorty
Off topic but with the 2011 October snowstorm, was this blog or another blog on this site active talking about it?

I sure missed it if it was this or another blog.
Quoting sar2401:


No, just seabreeze type storms. The front that supposed to drag Helene along is still hung up in north Alabama and now looks like it wants to turn stationary. The high that's currently over the Indiana/Ohio area may push what's left of the front further south by Monday or Tuesday but it's not going to be a major player in anything that develops in GOM.
So this justifies what I've been thinking about both Helene and 94L...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Irene was designated in two days. It looks like Isaac will too.

They may take similar paths.
Is it fair to minus a post because you don't like the message??? lol

Quoting Gorty:
With Issac, 2012 will be more active then 2005 in August!
Really? I know we had K on the 24th... We had I and J storms after the 18th???

Quoting dearmas:


Guess what will be here in Tampa about that time frame....RNC. Guess we will seeif all the drills//training that has been going on for months will be needed
Let's not even go there... or consider the fact that there's another convention in NC the following week...
Sheesh.

Tropical Depression HELENE RSS Feed icon NESDIS Satellite | NDBC Obs | Storm Archive
...HELENE MOVES INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 18
Location: 22.0°N 98.0°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Hurricane warning for the Azores. We don't see that much.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Still want to experience a hurricane? You can, would not advise it.
On a uncharted islands.Not with anyone else getting harm.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13,you think Gordon weakens the Ridge or it has no effect at all?


well I'm not TA but from me I think it is having an effect on the ridge but I think it will not be enough to have an effect I think whatever effectes are happening the ridge will redevelop these are just my thought we will have to wait and see
Quoting BahaHurican:

Is it fair to minus a post because you don't like the message??? lol

No, lol.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Good morning people,The EURO shows a weaker system,but looks the strong ridge, i´m starting doubting this storm will recurve


This run seems suspect as the Euro has been consistently showing a major hurricane on each run.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh My God...

If the GFS is best on timing, and the Ships intensity is within 10kts of the correct value for 120 hours, then it's SW of PR and SE of Dominican republic at 168 hours...

However, the intensity is forecast as 105kts at the 120 hours mark, which the GFS says will still be 12 to 18 hours east of the Lesser Antilles.

If this was to verify, then it would pass the Lesser Antilles as a strong category 3 or weak category 4, and continue intensifying until near landfall (or if it makes the pass anyway).


So these scenarios from the most recent SHIPS and GFS are just terrible compared to earlier runs.
O.o...well, we've gotten away every for the most part since Louis but this looks like it coul be the one :/
Hurricane Gordon~ Click pic for loop.
Quoting unknowncomic:
94L already looks like banding with center at 12.5/30.


Should be a TD/TS within 24 hours IMO.
1653. LargoFl
1654. ncstorm
Jim Cantore is talking about 94L..from twitter..

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

The next potential "I" storm is that 1008mb Low near 12N30W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif … It could impact the Antilles as early as Thursday.
1655. Gorty
Quoting BahaHurican:
So this justifies what I've been thinking about both Helene and 94L...

Is it fair to minus a post because you don't like the message??? lol

Really? I know we had K on the 24th... We had I and J storms after the 18th???

Let's not even go there... or consider the fact that there's another convention in NC the following week...
Sheesh.



Aww man I miss counted :( It will tie 2005. 2005 got to L.

So it also had 5 storms in Aug.
Quoting Patrap:
That feature shows up nicely below Cuba in the WV loop

GOM WV Loop

Yes it does, thx, it seems to be utilizing DMAX already for being 2 days old. Convection in the heat of the day should put some clothes back on him. If it survives and develops, it has no issues ahead of it.
I think it may be a little stronger but they are the experts.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 38.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
this blog is about too be come vary busy
1659. ncstorm
1660. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1029 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FLC057-103-181530-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0071.120818T1429Z-120818T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-PINELLAS FL-
1029 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LUTZ...TEMPLE TERRACE...TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TAMPA

CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...
SEMINOLE


* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1029 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2812 8261 2818 8238 2817 8210 2789 8253
2793 8254 2793 8257 2796 8256 2796 8266
2798 8262 2799 8267 2796 8267 2794 8271
2792 8263 2787 8258 2775 8276 2783 8284
2793 8285

$$
Quoting ncstorm:
Jim Cantore is talking about 94L..from twitter..

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

The next potential "I" storm is that 1008mb Low near 12N30W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif … It could impact the Antilles as early as Thursday.
Even the experts know their's something wrong with those "I" storms.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
yeah... it looks as the storm , if it heads that direction , will start to impact the lesser antillies by Friday and the boat should be on its way home by that time.I'm house and dog sitting for them this week. We all live in Key West.
Biggest problem would be if the storm moves faster than expected... but definitely the cruise line would indicate if there are changes to the itinerary.
94L looking like an S..

Quoting washingtonian115:
Even the experts know their's something wrong with those "I" storms.


Well, it's not just superstition, it's statistics.


I guess it's about the timing in the season. For at least the past decade, maybe 2 decades, the "I" storms usually happen in a sweet spot for size and intensity in space and time.

You know what I'm saying...
1665. LargoFl
geez we got a weather event going on right here..havent seen this much rain in a long time..flooding big time i bet in the low lying area's..and Still pouring.............
Quoting Skyepony:
94L looking like an S..




is that a eye in 94L?
1667. air360
Quoting Skyepony:
94L looking like an S..



Or at least a backwards S....
1668. ncstorm
Here is the UKMET last run

Now remember the storm that will become "I" killed 28 people from flooding.So you can say that 94L soon to be "I" came out of Africa bad and seems he wants to continue his rain of terror.
1670. ncstorm
Quoting Skyepony:
94L looking like an S..


It's actually a 2. :D
I know my ABC's and 123's xD
Topped out about an hour or two ago..

Dry air penetrated the eye-wall on the latest frame.



It might survive and fix this, but that's going to take some wind out of it...pun intended.
FWIW, Gordon has moved into second place on the 2012 ACE list. Meanwhile, Helene has a really good chance of staying in last place for the duration:

1: ERNESTO - 7.6625
2: GORDON - 3.1675
3: CHRIS - 2.7675
4: DEBBY - 2.4450
5: BERYL - 2.1600
6: FLORENCE - 1.4375
7: ALBERTO - 1.3750
8: HELENE - 0.4050

ACE

ACE
Morning... the buzz seems to be about 94L. Washingtonian115 gotta give it to you... you've been talking about the "I" storm for some time now expressing your concern about this potential "bad boy."
1675. LargoFl
Quoting Tazmanian:



is that a eye in 94L?


No..

ASCAT missed 94L
Model shifting little by little to the west
looking at forecast track for the Tropical Depression Helene, depending on if it still has a LLCOC in 4 day. it could redevelop back in the GOM and landfall on Tx. so just keep an eye out for that.

looking at Gordon. he may try to make it to 85-90MPH before hitting that cooler water.

I have a gut feeling that 94L will end up being a Carib/GOM cane, with it recurving in the GOM towards Fl. but for now its too early to be certain. so I shall wait till it reaches 40W.
Last nights FIM-8 run:

Quoting stormchaser19:
Model shifting little by little to the west

Quoting Articuno:

It's actually a 2. :D
I know my ABC's and 123's xD


Odd how storms make 2s.. Wasn't it an I storm that had a very prominent one in it's eye?
1683. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there will be a storm in the area as per model dipiction 06z saturday the 25th 12 z
keep up to date with cruselines update system and follow NHC/NOAA/local NWS for official updates

It is entirely to early to make predictions, but I am a bit concerned about Haiti. The CMC has it missing the Caribbean which is good.
Quoting LargoFl:
gee havent seen mean pouring rain and boomers and tons of lightning like this in a LONG time..and still going..quite a storm coming to you Tampa..long lasting too..stay safe..if your area floods easily..

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
northwestern Hillsborough County in Florida.
This includes the cities of... Lutz... Temple Terrace... Tampa
International Airport... Tampa

central Pinellas County in Florida.
This includes the cities of... Clearwater... largo... Pinellas Park...
Seminole


* until 1130 am EDT

* at 1029 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
rainfall rates of two inches per hour associated with thunderstorms
over the advised area... localized flooding is imminent or occurring.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Keep children from being swept away in flooded ditches and drains.
Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear and may stall your
vehicle. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep
vehicles off the Road. Turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 2812 8261 2818 8238 2817 8210 2789 8253
2793 8254 2793 8257 2796 8256 2796 8266
2798 8262 2799 8267 2796 8267 2794 8271
2792 8263 2787 8258 2775 8276 2783 8284
2793 8285
1685. ncstorm
94L is greasing up the tracks for the wave train..lots of moisture..

Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Gordon has moved into second place on the 2012 ACE list. Meanwhile, Helene has a really good chance of staying in last place for the duration:

1: ERNESTO - 7.6625
2: GORDON - 3.1675
3: CHRIS - 2.7675
4: DEBBY - 2.4450
5: BERYL - 2.1600
6: FLORENCE - 1.4375
7: ALBERTO - 1.3750
8: HELENE - 0.4050

ACE

ACE
I love pie charts, good job Neapolitan :)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at forecast track for the Tropical Depression Helene, depending on if it still has a LLCOC in 4 day. it could redevelop back in the GOM and landfall on Tx. so just keep an eye out for that.

looking at Gordon. he may try to make it to 85-90MPH before hitting that cooler water.

I have a gut feeling that 94L will end up being a Carib/GOM cane, with it recurving in the GOM towards Fl. but for now its too early to be certain. so I shall wait till it reaches 40W.


GFS is creepy good at 120 hours range, but starts to lose it afterwards.

However, one thing working against the models right now is that the system isn't developed yet, so the initialization could be bad.

If the initialization is good, then the GFS is probably not wrong by more than one degree in any direction at the 120hours mark...
Quoting stormchaser19:
Model shifting little by little to the west


As I said gut feeling says Caribbean storm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Hurricane warning for the Azores. We don't see that much.
Think the last time was for the last Gordon, IIRC...
1691. hydrus
The latest Euro is not what a lot of people would want.Link
Quoting RTSplayer:


GFS is creepy good at 120 hours range, but starts to lose it afterwards.

However, one thing working against the models right now is that the system isn't developed yet, so the initialization could be bad.

If the initialization is good, then the GFS is probably not wrong by more than one degree in any direction at the 120hours mark...

I know
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


As I said gut feeling says Caribbean storm

He was referring to TD Helene.
Quoting Skyepony:


Odd how storms make 2s.. Wasn't it an I storm that had a very prominent one in it's eye?

Wilma had a '2' in her eye.
1696. LargoFl
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I know
maybe by monday we will have a better idea where its going, models are split now, still needs to form then they can get a good handle on it
Recon Plan of the Day was a little later coming out..

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK--PSBL LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N AND 50W ON 21/1800Z.
12z runs will start soon be interesting to see if it keeps the dipiction the same
Quoting hydrus:
The latest Euro is not what a lot of people would want.Link
No Gulf storm please.I find it interesting that either way the models send this it ends bad for someone...
1700. spathy
Quoting Skyepony:


Odd how storms make 2s.. Wasn't it an I storm that had a very prominent one in it's eye?


That was Wilma as it headed for everglades city I think.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Gordon has moved into second place on the 2012 ACE list. Meanwhile, Helene has a really good chance of staying in last place for the duration:

1: ERNESTO - 7.6625
2: GORDON - 3.1675
3: CHRIS - 2.7675
4: DEBBY - 2.4450
5: BERYL - 2.1600
6: FLORENCE - 1.4375
7: ALBERTO - 1.3750
8: HELENE - 0.4050

ACE

ACE


After Isaac comes through that ACE chart is gonna be filled by him.
Quoting ncstorm:
94L is greasing up the tracks for the wave train..lots of moisture..


Where'd Gro go?

This is still obviously 2 discrete systems, the next ascat/oscat will show that. We still haven't solved the argument of which blob will be absorbed by which..
Or whether they will go their separate ways, which is looking more likely by the frame.......

Quoting stormchaser19:


keep on shifting W
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at forecast track for the Tropical Depression Helene, depending on if it still has a LLCOC in 4 day. it could redevelop back in the GOM and landfall on Tx. so just keep an eye out for that.

looking at Gordon. he may try to make it to 85-90MPH before hitting that cooler water.

I have a gut feeling that 94L will end up being a Carib/GOM cane, with it recurving in the GOM towards Fl. but for now its too early to be certain. so I shall wait till it reaches 40W.


Glad you are back from the short vacation WKC. Hope you enjoyed yourself. Do you think 94L will impact the convention (aug 27-30 in Tampa)???
OMG, my heart is pumping


1706. ncstorm
06z GFS Precip map through 6-10 days


11-15 days
Quoting hydrus:
The latest Euro is not what a lot of people would want.Link


I don't trust the Euro for tropical systems unless they've already been named.

It's notorious for not even initializing something as strong as category 3 anyway, which happened a few times in the past 2 or 3 years...

Plus that screwy map system doesn't even have the pressure values listed for the storms on some of the frames.

Although it's true that scenario would be screwed up, since it would put a developed system going into the Gulf already in tact, and the Antilles and PR would probably get hits or close calls twice within the same week..
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Gordon has moved into second place on the 2012 ACE list. Meanwhile, Helene has a really good chance of staying in last place for the duration:

1: ERNESTO - 7.6625
2: GORDON - 3.1675
3: CHRIS - 2.7675
4: DEBBY - 2.4450
5: BERYL - 2.1600
6: FLORENCE - 1.4375
7: ALBERTO - 1.3750
8: HELENE - 0.4050

ACE

ACE


Issac for sure will go to #1.
1709. LargoFl
I dunno..looking at 94L in this pic..does not look impressive at all..doesnt even look like its trying to form.....my hope is it stays disorganized..some people might get hurt with this one down the road if it doesnt......................
Quoting hydrus:
The latest Euro is not what a lot of people would want.Link


You're right, Hydrus, I don't like that at all. Thank God it's too far out to worry about.
1711. ncstorm
Quoting redwagon:

Where'd Gro go?

This is still obviously 2 discrete systems, the next ascat/oscat will show that. We still haven't solved the argument of which blob will be absorbed by which..



Yeah..which could make one huge mother..we may see a fujiwhara..its going to be close..
Oh yeah~ Wilma.. I was getting ready for it. Can't find pic..
Good Morning, Muggy out West, Heres WHY
1714. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
Cool... I remembered [a great accomplishment for me lol] ...

Yeah, Antigua definitely needs to keep an eye on this one... even if it misses most of the rest of the Antilles, u guys still might get a bit of a blow.



"blow" is the operative word here. Definitely not taking this lightly.

Just noticed I doubled up on the word "are" in my post. Like my mom used to say "Best of men make mistakes". This one was too simple though. Back to weather watching.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Glad you are back from the short vacation WKC. Hope you enjoyed yourself. Do you think 94L will impact the convention (aug 27-30 in Tampa)???


I'm not back yet I'm just checking in seeing whats going on

so far it is good

Hmm I don't know. but my gut is telling me, this will be a Carib/GOM system and the recurves in the GOM into Fl. not sure about the time frame, but thats what me guts telling
I've recorded over 2 inches of rain so far and lots of lightning with it, even more about to move in soon, finally the local dry streak ends!
1719. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
I dunno..looking at 94L in this pic..does not look impressive at all..doesnt even look like its trying to form.....my hope is it stays disorganized..some people might get hurt with this one done the road if it doesnt......................


If these values are true, I don't think you want the storm to stay weak, because then it passes through cat 4 and cat 5 potential zones later on.





If anything, it would be best if it did RI for the next 4 days and hooked hard north before hitting any land.

Staying weak makes it go farther west, where it will then explode over 130kj/cm^2 TCHP...
1721. hydrus
Quoting aislinnpaps:


You're right, Hydrus, I don't like that at all. Thank God it's too far out to worry about.
Another interesting thing I saw was if the tropical wave in the Central Caribbean were to pick up the blob in the extreme S.W.Caribbean, something may develop.
1722. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
I've recorded over 2 inches of rain so far and lots of lightning with it, even more about to move in soon, finally the local dry streak ends!
Good morning Jed..yeah finally some great rains
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=5 611

Wilma '2' eye
Experimental higher resolution GFS ensemble, 168 hours:






Link
Quoting stormchaser19:


The GFS ensemble looks interesting...
Ok....now a little concerned about a storm impacting my area. Worst for me between Houma, LA and N.O.
Just got word my home elevation approved and can start in a week or two. Murphy's Law may come into play....:p
\hey, Gordon looks like he's mixing out that bit of dry air quite well. I think he may, in fact, make it to category 2 by day's end. His recurvature towards the Azores should also be happening then.

I should warn a good friend of mine who has taken a vacation to a family villa up there, he's not very attuned to weather, so he probably has no idea that there may be a hurricane barreling towards him. Seems that this Gordon is living up to his namesake's legacy of six years ago after all.

1728. LargoFl
.....................tropical wave down by the islands right now
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon Plan of the Day was a little later coming out..

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK--PSBL LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N AND 50W ON 21/1800Z.


Good morning.

That is my concern right there. If 94L is at those coordinates then it will be really bad news down the road. I never did buy the hard right turn the models had over the past two days showing 94L near 20 N at 50 W
1730. Dakster
I am hoping that 94L does not become as much a pain in the neck as Wilma was... Since we are drawing comparisons between the two.
1731. LargoFl
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

That is my concern right there. If 94L is at those coordinates then it will be really bad news down the road. I never did buy the hard right turn the models had over the past two days showing 94L near 20 N at 50 W
Is HH going anywhere today?
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is HH going anywhere today?



nop
1734. Walshy
Hurricane Warning...

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Midday updates on Gordon and Helene: the government of Portugal has now issued a hurricane warning for the central and eastern Azores. Helene has moved inland near Tampico Mexico and weakened to a tropical depression, but there still is a threat of flash floods and mud slides over higher terrain. For more, visit www.hurricanes.gov
Like · · Share · 19211 · 8 minutes ago ·
1735. SLU
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur _25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds124.png
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop
What u think what happens at 2pm with Tropical wave and is it possible it could form a TD today?
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.
1738. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE
STEADY WEST WINDS WILL PUSH THEM WELL INLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROHIBIT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. IF THE SEA BREEZE FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE...IT WILL BE
PINNED TO THE COAST.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...WIND IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND OTHER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

FLORIDA IS THE LIGHTNING CAPITAL OF NORTH AMERICA. IF SKIES
THREATEN OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT
RETURN OUTDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE FINAL CLAP OF THUNDER.
1739. SLU
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What u think what happens at 2pm with Tropical wave and is it possible it could form a TD today?



94L would likey be come a TD by sunday
Quoting SLU:
Could this become a TD today maybe?
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is HH going anywhere today?


No, Helene is inland so the mission slated for today from yesterday's plan will be scrapped.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Could this become a TD today maybe?




i said may be sunday but not today



you need too learn too read evrere ones commets be for asking the same thing
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L would likey be come a TD by sunday
all right at 2 pm I think it could go to 60 or 70% chance?
1745. SLU
Quoting ncstorm:
I keep looking at the purples just off the SE CONUS coast and wondering if that implies some kind of troughiness [a ULL? haven't looked] in the area...

Quoting hydrus:
It is entirely to early to make predictions, but I am a bit concerned about Haiti. The CMC has it missing the Caribbean which is good.
Looks like it clips Antigua, though...

Quoting Tazmanian:




i said may be sunday but not today



you need too learn too read evrere ones commets be for asking the same thing
k Iam only 14 dont know much about hurricanes?
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
all right at 2 pm I think it could go to 60 or 70% chance?



may be
1749. SLU
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Could this become a TD today maybe?


If it has a closed circulation I think it's already a TD.
1750. LargoFl
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)
Quoting redwagon:

Where'd Gro go?

This is still obviously 2 discrete systems, the next ascat/oscat will show that. We still haven't solved the argument of which blob will be absorbed by which..
Or whether they will go their separate ways, which is looking more likely by the frame.......

I wonder how many remember the GFS longrange about 10, 12 days ago spitting out several storms in a row... looks like it had the correct general idea...
Quoting SLU:


Still disorganized at the surface based upon that partial pass but the 850 mb signature is looking good.
I would give it another 24 hrs to TD status, possibly 36. These CV systems usually take their time developing closer to 40W.
1754. LargoFl
Very Ominous setup being depicted by the latest GFS.
Notice during the run it shows it slightly weaken near the DR due to land interaction and the trough is quite flat over Canada. Thus setting up a classic trap for 94L as ridging will likely build over the system and force a WNW to NW motion. However the GFS underestimate the unually strong subtropical high and the system shoots up the slight weakness in the ridge rather than it building it over Issac. Stay tune for the 12z run.............................
Quoting washingtonian115:
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.


Maybe he is waiting the 12z gfs
1757. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1012 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

MSC005-157-181715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.Y.0086.120818T1512Z-120818T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
AMITE MS-WILKINSON MS-
1012 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
WESTERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1012 AM CDT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN WILKINSON AND WESTERN AMITE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Glad you are back from the short vacation WKC. Hope you enjoyed yourself. Do you think 94L will impact the convention (aug 27-30 in Tampa)???
I know you are not asking me that question, but I live in TB area. It may or may not affect us, but I bet it has a lot of RNC officials a little more than worried. What do you think?
Quoting victoria780:
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)
My guess after P.R. and missing the conus.
Quoting victoria780:
Let the guessing game begin,will Isaac re curve before the windwards >? between Puerto Rico and Hispanola or the trough is not deep enough to move it north and Isaac ends up in the gulf...Remember (Ike)


Unlikely, as the ridge remains adamant. In fact the system might take a slight dip wsw then a west to WNW track ensues.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wonder how many remember the GFS longrange about 10, 12 days ago spitting out several storms in a row... looks like it had the correct general idea...

That last ascat SLU posted depicted the western half of a confused center.. Skyepony should get us the goods as soon as they come in. No need to send the HHs in until one storm gets absorbed by the other.
1765. Dakster
Speaking of nasty historical storms. There are some events regarding the memories of Hurricane Andrew...

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/16/2956859/eve nts-commemorate-hurricane-andrew.html

I don't really like the word 'commemorating' as I usually associate that word with a positive event - I don't have positive memories of Hurricane Andrew.
Quoting stormchaser19:
OMG, my heart is pumping


I remember at the time thinking Georges was about as bad as it could get for a season... then we had Mitch. Pple forgot about Georges altogether for a while...

Quoting LargoFl:
I dunno..looking at 94L in this pic..does not look impressive at all..doesnt even look like its trying to form.....my hope is it stays disorganized..some people might get hurt with this one down the road if it doesnt......................
IIRC, NHC never expected more than slow development before tomorrow anyway... it's why they didn't go right to high. Like H23 and others have said, we have plenty of time to watch this.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I'm not back yet I'm just checking in seeing whats going on

so far it is good

Hmm I don't know. but my gut is telling me, this will be a Carib/GOM system and the recurves in the GOM into Fl. not sure about the time frame, but thats what me guts telling
I can see the CAR part of this. I think it's way too early to call anything else right now. There are too many complex relationships out there to resolve, especially if the Twave behind 94L does attempt its own, separate, cyclogenesis. What we might end up with is 94L catapulted off to the NW, while the system behind it meanders into the CAR...

Lots of possibilities out there.

94L is crossing over a 29 grade celsius water Woooo!
Tropicalupdate.....glad you are interested. No worries....no perfect people in here including/esp me. BBL.....
Tropical Storm Helene has made landfall along the central Mexican coastline this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. While dissipation over land seems likely over the next few days over northern Mexico, a second solution is also possible as depicted by the GFS model. Helene could move back out over water and restrengthen, possibly moving northward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is also possible that the GFS is "seeing" a piece of energy or leftover convection interating with a frontal system currently pushing into SE Texas and later offshore. Development along frontal boundaries are all too common this time of year especially since conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable and water temperatures are high. This is something to watch over the next few days as steering currents for Helene remain weak and it appears she may meander for a few days.
Invest 94L has been designated for a robust tropical wave that moved off the African coast a few days ago. Models are latching onto development of this system and conditions appear to be ripe in the central and western Atlantic as 94L makes its trek westward. All indications are that this system could become Tropical Storm Isaac in 24 to 36 hrs. This system will need to be watched closely over the next few days and will likely become the leading weather story as most models predict 94L developing into a powerful system. The first landmass to feel future Isaac's effects will be the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico in approximately 5 days or so. Thereafter the models diverge somewhat on a track into the Gulf of Mexico by a weaker system, or recurve just off the East Coast by a strong hurricane. A recurve near Bermuda is also not out of the question. Future Isaacs eventual track will depend on the orientation of the A/B high, and timing of troughs of low pressure over the eastern seaboard. This area needs to be watched carefully over the next 10 days or so.
Wow.

0600z GFDL still takes Gordon to 87kts and 973mb on the 20th...

And the 1200z takes it to 95kts...

...but the other models keep it in the 75kts to 80kts range.


What do they have for building code in the Azores?

If GFDL or HWRF is right, they are about to get a category 2 hurricane, or a very close call from one anyway...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Surprised Doc has not made a blog.
Thought about that earlier... maybe he's sleeping in... lol.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good morning Jed..yeah finally some great rains


Yeah it's great to see it returning, it looks like there will be plenty more over the next several days, wet pattern setting up that's for sure. There will be periods of concentrated heavy rain as upper disturbances move through occasionally as well.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't trust the Euro for tropical systems unless they've already been named.

It's notorious for not even initializing something as strong as category 3 anyway, which happened a few times in the past 2 or 3 years...

Plus that screwy map system doesn't even have the pressure values listed for the storms on some of the frames.

Although it's true that scenario would be screwed up, since it would put a developed system going into the Gulf already in tact, and the Antilles and PR would probably get hits or close calls twice within the same week..
That happened in Puerto Rico in 1979 when cat 5 David passed 45 miles to our south spreading hurricane winds above a 100mph through the Island. Three days later a weaker Frederick crossed the island from east to west.....just from what I remember ...
Looks like the track could even have a bit of WSW bias to it in the short term but certainly West it is.

1776. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the track could even have a bit of WSW bias to it in the short term but certainly West it is.

The Bermuda High is south of where it usually is this time of year. That is not good .