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Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Near Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2014

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season kicked out another surprise, as Tropical Storm Hanna formed Monday morning off the coast of Nicaragua just six hours after NHC gave the system a 10% chance of development in their 2 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Surface winds measured overnight by the ASCAT satellite showed sustained winds of 40 mph occurring off the northeast coast of Nicaragua, and visible satellite images just after sunrise on Monday morning confirmed the presence of a low-level surface circulation, prompting NHC to begin issuing tropical storm advisories. Hanna will be a short-lived storm. With a motion west-southwest at 7 mph, the center of Hanna will be over land on Monday afternoon, and passage over land should make the storm dissipate by Tuesday afternoon. The main threat of Hanna is heavy rains of 10 - 12" that will cause flash floods and mudslides over northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. This portion of Nicaragua is still recovering from torrential rains last week that killed 24 people on October 20. As of 10 am EDT Monday, Puerto Lempira in northeast Honduras had received 0.71" of rain from Hanna.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Hanna making landfall in northeastern Nicaragua at approximately 11:30 am EDT October 27, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Hanna's formation date of October 27 comes more than a month later than the typical September 24 formation date of the season's eighth named storm. Hanna gives the Atlantic 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes so far in 2014. Between 1966 - 2009, the Atlantic averaged 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, so we are close to average in two of the three categories--hurricanes and major hurricanes. However, those hurricanes have not been as strong or long-lasting as usual, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) so far in 2014 is 65 units, which is well below the 110 units that occurs in a typical year.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border is gradually becoming more organized, and has the potential to develop later this week. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system, and in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 80%, respectively. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea on Monday morning, October 27, 2014. At the time, Nilofar was an intensifying Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Arabian Sea Cyclone Nilofar hits Category 1 strength
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, Category 1 Cyclone Nilofar has formed. With wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), Nilofar appears likely to intensify into a Category 3 storm, despite the presence of very dry air from the deserts of the Middle East on the storm's west side. Nilofar is expected to recurve to the northeast later this week, and the 00Z Monday runs of the GFS and European models predicted a landfall near the Pakistan/India border between 18 UTC Friday and 03 UTC Saturday. Higher wind shear should induce significant weakening of Nilofar before it makes landfall.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. QPhysFTW:

Good morning from a balmy central Ohio (well, balmy given the time of day and year). Does anyone know why Nilofar doesn't appear on the floaters page? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html


Link

You're welcome.
Quoting 500. Sfloridacat5:



The GFS has a low across S. Texas that moves into the S.E.
But it comes from the hurricane in the EPAC that crosses Mexico.

I think the Euro is picking up on that energy.


It is as the Euro en trains it into that deep upper low. Could be a big rainmaker rolling across the South next week.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF thinks highly of this one, looks like we'll at least tie 1992's hurricane and major hurricane record.



Post #486
The GFS makes it a landfalling system on the Mexican coast that feeds energy into the southern U.S.
Quoting 498. CybrTeddy:



The ECMWF thinks highly of this one, looks like we'll at least tie 1992's hurricane and major hurricane record.




I'm personally hoping we BEAT the major hurricane record. We've already tied it (8)*, it's time to exceed it.

*For the eastern Pacific only. I dislike including the central Pacific when they're two completely different delineated areas.
Quoting 474. CosmicEvents:

The blogs gone dead it appears.
For those hoping for whatever...just because ex-Hanna is no longer with us, don't lose hope. There's 5 more weeks left in the official season and we've seen November storms before. It's just not gonna' be Hanna, maybe the I storm.

Yes, there is still time for more named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin! 95L just might become the "I" storm. The last several years have been fairly active into November, so we might get to the "J" storm. We will see what happens~!

Quoting 499. MAweatherboy1:

Big early season New England snowstorm on the Euro now. GFS doesn't buy it though. An early test of which model is going to be the one to pay the most attention to for winter storm forecasting.






I called that yesterday and was shot down but thanks. To answer your question the Euro will likely win out on this solution as i suspect that NYC could get atleast some snow on Saturday.
Hi folks, for all who may be bored after the disappearance of Hanna: there is a somehow weather related drama going on in Norway with several livestreaming channels (already for days) because of an imminent large mountainous rockfall/landslide above a very important road in the region of Romsdalen (near the town of Molde):

Mount Mannen avalanche set to topple Tuesday
The Local (Norway) Published: 28 Oct 2014 12:10 GMT 01:00
Experts studying the imminent avalanche on Mount Mannen in South Norway said it is "fairly probable" it will occur some time on Tuesday.
Chief geologist on site, Lars Harald Blikra said it is difficult to predict exactly when parts of the mountain tumble down, but that it is "fairly probable" that it will happen on Tuesday.
Rocks have already been heard and seen tumbling down from the mountain which is a forewarning that a rock fall is highly likely. There has also been more heavy rainfall in the region which has placed the area on "red alert".
Jarle Hole is one of the geologists on duty monitoring activity. Hole said to NTB: "There has been large movements during the night in the area that the avalanche is expected to come from. At the same time, we have registered rain in the measuring stations on top of Mannen."
Experts believe that the heavy rainfall expected in Rauma in More og Romsdal on Tuesday may trigger the avalanche from "Mannen". Everyone seem to agree that it will happen, but noone knows when it's going to occur.
Hole says: "It is very difficult to say when the avalanche will come, but something will happen soon, even though I cannot say whether we are talking about 24 hours or several days."
The Norwegian army are assisting the police with make safe and barricading the area around the "Mannen" mountain massive and establishing listening posts in the mountain area. Early morning Tuesday, they reported that they heard sounds of rocks tumbling down from the part of the mountain at most risk from avalanche.
People in the surrounding area, close to the mountain, have been advised not to inhale the dust that is expected to be with the avalanche.
In a press conference on Tuesday morning, the local government informed the public that it is "not smart to inhale" the dust. At the same time, they gave an update on the situation on the Mannen mountain in Rauma. The movements happening this week are the largest that have ever occurred in the area.
Chieg geologist Lars Harald Blikra said to NTB: "It is fairly probable that we will have an avalanche today [Tuesday], but the exact point of time is difficult to predict."
Police on Monday evacuated the area in the Romsdal region of South Norway.
Nordmore and Romsdal police imposed a ban on members of the public staying below Mount "Mannen" ["The Man"] due to the high risk of there being an avalanche involving sliding rock. ...


Here is one of the live streaming channels if you like to stare at the misty rains with some rock wall appearing from time to time. http://www.abcnyheter.no And here another one.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It is as the Euro en trains it into that deep upper low. Could be a big rainmaker rolling across the South next week.



Just as likely as a Cat 1 hurricane hitting Tampa this week. Weather looks beautiful for my area for the foreseeable future. Enjoy it, its the dry season and i've waited all summer for the rain and humidity to go away!

Everytime i look at this i just wonder how anyone in California will ever have water again.

Link

The same front causing the landslide in Norway is finally clearing us, after bringing several minor landslides to close the western trunk roads. My town is (again) cut off from Glasgow thanks to the two major roads heading there being flooded by runoff from the hills, same with the railway network. A persistent, heavy but not unprecedented rain event in this area shouldn't be causing this much difficulty, but many of the drains have been blocked with fallen leaves, which in their infinite wisdom no local authority or road maintenance crew thought to clear despite warnings for 4-8 inches of rain...

00Z EURO has 40's all the way down into S FL! :)
Link

Thankfully winter is coming...
Quoting 511. WxGuy2014:

Everytime i look at this i just wonder how anyone in California will ever have water again.




I read an article in the NY Times not too long ago that stated that if an El Nino is declared, it likely won't have much of an effect on mitigating the CA drought because it will be a weak El Nino. It's just a case where too many people live in a state that doesn't have the natural resources to support them.
maybe snow for boston by sunday
Quoting 508. StormTrackerScott:



I called that yesterday and was shot down but thanks. To answer your question the Euro will likely win out on this solution as i suspect that NYC could get atleast some snow on Saturday.


Just like you called the end to the hurricane season last week. Remember "stick a fork in it." Ooops, then came Hannah a couple of days later And you wonder why people call you out.
Temp Forecast for Halloween night in Fl:


Quoting 517. luvtogolf:



Just like you called the end to the hurricane season last week. Remember "stick a fork in it." Ooops, then came Hannah a couple of days later And you wonder why people call you out.


While I no longer consider Scott a credible forecaster by any means, Hanna was a storm that MOST people didn't forecast. The initial development of TD9 was pegged a little better, but none of the guidance suggested redevelopment to occur on top of Central America, and the system as a whole was very disorganized until about 12 hours prior to designation.

You can't fault him for that.

Also, Hanna. No additional h.
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Temp Forecast for Halloween night in Fl:




temps look comfy dont they? Add on not a chance of rain and it'll be a perfect night for the trick or treaters.
Quoting 518. tropicofcancer:

Temp Forecast for Halloween night in Fl:





Looks great! I remember last year's Halloween was very muggy. Almost felt like summer.
70W, looks like a snow maker for the mountains. We'll check back next Tuesday and see the snow totals for Jay Peak. According to Euro, It's about in the perfect spot for an interior snow slamming. If it were January the coast would be getting in on it too.

Quoting 499. MAweatherboy1:

Big early season New England snowstorm on the Euro now. GFS doesn't buy it though. An early test of which model is going to be the one to pay the most attention to for winter storm forecasting.




Quoting 489. KoritheMan:



Morning, Adam. Isn't that the Arabian Sea? Its reputation for producing tropical cyclones is low, but the ones it does produce tend to be quite powerful (Gonu in 2007, for example).

Morning, Kori! Yeah, it's not common at all to get such powerful storms in the Arabian Sea. Only 5 cyclones since 1990 were able become a major hurricane equivalent, with 2 of them being category 4/5's (Gonu, and Phet in 2010)
524. MAstu
Quoting 516. hurricanes2018:

maybe snow for boston by sunday
NO!!!!!
Quoting 501. KoritheMan:



Link

You're welcome.


Well, thanks for the other floater page, but no active cyclones for the Arabian Sea basin are listed there either!

EDIT: Though Nilofar CAN be found by going to the 2014 Season archive. But why should one have to do that for an active cyclone?
Quoting 525. QPhysFTW:



Well, thanks for the other floater page, but no active cyclones for the Arabian Sea basin are listed there either!


Uh... they were earlier, including when I gave you the link.

somethin aint right i tell ya
Quoting 519. KoritheMan:



While I no longer consider Scott a credible forecaster by any means, Hanna was a storm that MOST people didn't forecast. The initial development of TD9 was pegged a little better, but none of the guidance suggested redevelopment to occur on top of Central America, and the system as a whole was very disorganized until about 12 hours prior to designation.

You can't fault him for that.

Also, Hanna. No additional h.


I don't have a problem with anyone missing a forecast. It happens every day. Attitude has everything to do with it.
Quoting 522. HaoleboySurfEC:

70W, looks like a snow maker for the mountains. We'll check back next Tuesday and see the snow totals for Jay Peak. According to Euro, It's about in the perfect spot for an interior snow slamming. If it were January the coast would be getting in on it too.



From my local MET: If the 00z European model (ecmwf) verifies however...accumulating snow for
much of the County Warning Area possibly all the way down to the coast.
Quoting 527. luvtogolf:



I don't have a problem with anyone missing a forecast. It happens every day. Attitude has everything to do with it.


You won't find me arguing that. It's all about humility, patience, and objectivity.* 90% of the people here need to learn that part.

*Oh yeah, word choice too. Absolutism is never a good thing, especially in a statistically-based science.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
00Z EURO has 40's all the way down into S FL! :)


NWS and Wunderground are not buying it.

They're forecasting lows in the 50s for Orlando and 60s for Miami this weekend.

Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Basically the same weather we just experienced this past weekend.

Quoting 530. Sfloridacat5:



NWS and Wunderground are not buying it.

They're forecasting lows in the 50s for Orlando and 60s for Miami this weekend.

Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Basically the same weather we just experienced this past weekend.




Indeed! Try as I may to find lower temps for my location here in S Miami, it looks like a carbon copy of last weekend. Just glad to have any kind of relief from the heat and humidity though.
Quoting 524. MAstu:

NO!!!!!






invest 95L will be the last storm of this year
Quoting 531. tropicofcancer:



Indeed! Try as I may to find lower temps for my location here in S Miami, it looks like a carbon copy of last weekend. Just glad to have any kind of relief from the heat and humidity though.


Lows in the mid-upper 30s for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach, our highs will be lower than Miami. And like you I agree the dry air will be welcome although it hasn't been as humid as the beginning of the month.
Quoting 494. CybrTeddy:

This is no Category 2 storm.



I was about to say that
I think Nilofar may beat Phet as the 2nd most intense storm in the basin
537. MAstu
Quoting 536. all4hurricanes:


I was about to say that
I think Nilofar may beat Phet as the 2nd most intense storm in the basin
do Arabian sea storms have similar satellite presentation to N. Atlantic storms? I remember reading that storms in the Bay of Bengal cause problems for the JTWC because there are so few and the satellite presentations often mislead.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Lows in the mid-upper 30s for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach, our highs will be lower than Miami. And like you I agree the dry air will be welcome although it hasn't been as humid as the beginning of the month.


Dry is an understatement at the moment.


RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
Just wondering.........when the NHC took out Hanna, did they also cut the Cayman's internet connection?

(tongue firmly planted in cheek)
Quoting 538. WxGuy2014:



Dry is an understatement at the moment.




Clear skies with only a patchy cumulus field here. I'm in south Louisiana near Baton Rouge, by the way.

Very dry airmass as upper ridging builds over the east coast ahead of the next front.
Quoting 540. capeflorida:

Just wondering.........when the NHC took out Hanna, did they also cut the Cayman's internet connection?

(tongue firmly planted in cheek)


Your subtlety is not so subtle for those of us who are shrewd. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


Clear skies with only a patchy cumulus field here. I'm in south Louisiana near Baton Rouge, by the way.

Very dry airmass as upper ridging builds over the east coast ahead of the next front.


Yeppers, its pretty easy to see where the front is too.
Quoting 540. capeflorida:
Just wondering.........when the NHC took out Hanna, did they also cut the Cayman's internet connection?

(tongue firmly planted in cheek)


You just earned a flag once that connection is re-established ;-)
Quoting 540. capeflorida:

Just wondering.........when the NHC took out Hanna, did they also cut the Cayman's internet connection?

(tongue firmly planted in cheek)


LOL. I think he retired for the second time.
basin looks alittle more favorable than it was in the heart of the season
Nilofar looking ugly.
Quoting 546. islander101010:

basin looks alittle more favorable than it was in the heart of the season


Because the boring SAL is FINALLY gone :-)
Well if right along the coast is in on it too, that would be somewhat rare this early. Not unheard of, but not common either. Water temps still relatively warm until after Thanksgiving, that's when they really dive.

Quoting 528. wilsongti45:


From my local MET: If the 00z European model (ecmwf) verifies however...accumulating snow for
much of the County Warning Area possibly all the way down to the coast.
Quoting 522. HaoleboySurfEC:

70W, looks like a snow maker for the mountains. We'll check back next Tuesday and see the snow totals for Jay Peak. According to Euro, It's about in the perfect spot for an interior snow slamming. If it were January the coast would be getting in on it too.


Invest 96-L (Remnants of Hanna)
553. MahFL
Closed circulation back over water.

I think FLO will beat today. My car thrmometer which is relatively accurate topped out at 88F yesterday while at break in the shade. Wow, ILM 87 in 1984 and warmer than FLO for same date. Interesting. Must have been a westerly wind component and cloudy inland, but sunny near coast in 1984.


Quoting 539. win1gamegiantsplease:


RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

555. MAstu
Quoting 553. MahFL:

Closed circulation back over water.


maybe it will reform and make another landfall. Probably as a Cat 5 in Tampa
I notice we have a new invest 96-L from the Remnants of Hanna, this area is expanding, I wonder if the front coming down will make this low go North and then quickly North East or it will fuse with the front,just something to keep an eye,some times I don't like this persistent systems!!.
Quoting 540. capeflorida:

Just wondering.........when the NHC took out Hanna, did they also cut the Cayman's internet connection?

(tongue firmly planted in cheek)


Actually it did not :-). I think this adequately answers your question.

i think WU has made a mistake there is no 96L on the back up navy pages and on the atcf pages
Lord, I just wonder what some of the surf breaks are like in that region of the world. Untouched breaks going off right now. Probably happens at this level maybe 10 times in a lifetime.

Doesn't have to be big to be special. Just great form and knowing that you are only one of very few to have ever caught a "mysto" spot on a perfect day. I suppose it would be like a storm chaser that finally nailed the perfect funnel after chasing it for years.



Quoting 547. jdukes:

Nilofar looking ugly.

Quoting 560. Tazmanian:

i think WU has made a mistake there is no 96L on the back up navy pages and on the atcf pages

Well, there is a 96L here:
022
WHXX01 KWBC 281346
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1346 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20141028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141028 1200 141029 0000 141029 1200 141030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 88.0W 17.3N 89.9W 17.8N 91.7W
BAMD 15.8N 86.0W 16.2N 87.3W 16.7N 88.5W 17.0N 89.3W
BAMM 15.8N 86.0W 16.3N 87.7W 16.7N 89.3W 17.0N 90.7W
LBAR 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 87.6W 17.5N 89.0W 18.7N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 18KTS 20KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 21KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141030 1200 141031 1200 141101 1200 141102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 93.1W 18.1N 95.7W 18.3N 99.7W 20.4N 103.8W
BAMD 17.0N 89.7W 17.2N 88.8W 21.0N 82.1W 27.3N 70.1W
BAMM 17.0N 91.9W 16.9N 93.8W 16.7N 95.7W 17.0N 98.3W
LBAR 19.5N 90.4W 21.4N 89.5W 24.8N 85.5W 27.4N 78.1W
SHIP 20KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 84.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Maybe this prevented 96L from appearing in the ATCF site or the Navy site.
-------------------
Posted May 28, 2014
-------------------
To prevent the release of pre-decisional information, ATCF data on the NHC public
FTP server will not update during a 90-minute blackout period prior to the
nominal advisory release times (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100Z)
. At the
advisory release times, all data will be updated.

In addition, the /tcweb directory, which was previously used to facilitate
communications between NHC and the U.S. Navy, has been removed from the NHC public
FTP server.
Quoting 562. Bobbyweather:


Well, there is a 96L here:
022
WHXX01 KWBC 281346
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1346 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20141028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141028 1200 141029 0000 141029 1200 141030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 88.0W 17.3N 89.9W 17.8N 91.7W
BAMD 15.8N 86.0W 16.2N 87.3W 16.7N 88.5W 17.0N 89.3W
BAMM 15.8N 86.0W 16.3N 87.7W 16.7N 89.3W 17.0N 90.7W
LBAR 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 87.6W 17.5N 89.0W 18.7N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 18KTS 20KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 21KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141030 1200 141031 1200 141101 1200 141102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 93.1W 18.1N 95.7W 18.3N 99.7W 20.4N 103.8W
BAMD 17.0N 89.7W 17.2N 88.8W 21.0N 82.1W 27.3N 70.1W
BAMM 17.0N 91.9W 16.9N 93.8W 16.7N 95.7W 17.0N 98.3W
LBAR 19.5N 90.4W 21.4N 89.5W 24.8N 85.5W 27.4N 78.1W
SHIP 20KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 84.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN




what is even a point for 96L looks like from what i reading there it looks like 96L will do nothing
Well it could conceivably get back to TS status and get pulled north or northeastward by the front before it makes another landfall. We'll wait and see. Persistent is a good word for it/her. Tricky and prickly are some others.

Quoting 557. Hurricane1956:

I notice we have a new invest 96-L from the Remnants of Hanna, this area is expanding, I wonder if the front coming down will make this low go North and then quickly North East or it will fuse with the front,just something to keep an eye,some times I don't like this persistent systems!!.
Quoting 563. Tazmanian:





what is even a point for 96L looks like from what i reading there it looks like 96L will do nothing

Well, it is always said that designating invests do not always indicate that the disturbance has a chance of formation.
Quoting 564. HaoleboySurfEC:

Well it could conceivably get back to TS status and get pulled north or northeastward by the front before it makes another landfall. We'll wait and see. Persistent is a good word for it/her. Tricky and prickly are some others.




Careful, I got jumped on for suggesting this last night :-). The Monday morning quarter backs from late last night might see your post LOL
I rarely bother with Tropical Storm activity even though I live in an area that can get serious storms, especially this time of year (re: Hurricane Mitch). Yesterday, on my way to work and after a cold front had pushed through our area of east central Honduras, a thought came to me, "This is going to cause hurricane activity off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama." My thought continued with an explanation of the cause. The cooler air is going to cause a strong gradient with the warm water abundant off the coasts this time of year. And the drier air is going to cause enhanced evaporation. I thought at the time, "That is unintuitive since dry air supposedly inhibits TS formation. From where did this thought come? It could only have come from God."
Then this morning a friend wrote to be careful with the storm coming our way. I checked WU, and lo, there it was.
568. MAstu
CIMSS is calling Nilofar a 4 now Link
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Well, there is a 96L here:
022
WHXX01 KWBC 281346
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1346 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20141028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141028 1200 141029 0000 141029 1200 141030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 88.0W 17.3N 89.9W 17.8N 91.7W
BAMD 15.8N 86.0W 16.2N 87.3W 16.7N 88.5W 17.0N 89.3W
BAMM 15.8N 86.0W 16.3N 87.7W 16.7N 89.3W 17.0N 90.7W
LBAR 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 87.6W 17.5N 89.0W 18.7N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 18KTS 20KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 21KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141030 1200 141031 1200 141101 1200 141102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 93.1W 18.1N 95.7W 18.3N 99.7W 20.4N 103.8W
BAMD 17.0N 89.7W 17.2N 88.8W 21.0N 82.1W 27.3N 70.1W
BAMM 17.0N 91.9W 16.9N 93.8W 16.7N 95.7W 17.0N 98.3W
LBAR 19.5N 90.4W 21.4N 89.5W 24.8N 85.5W 27.4N 78.1W
SHIP 20KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 84.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Maybe this prevented 96L from appearing in the ATCF site or the Navy site.
-------------------
Posted May 28, 2014
-------------------
To prevent the release of pre-decisional information, ATCF data on the NHC public
FTP server will not update during a 90-minute blackout period prior to the
nominal advisory release times (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100Z)
. At the
advisory release times, all data will be updated.

In addition, the /tcweb directory, which was previously used to facilitate
communications between NHC and the U.S. Navy, has been removed from the NHC public
FTP server.
This is why.

NOTE: All NRL web pages offline on Tuesday, 10-28 from 14-16Z for internal maintenance.
Anyway, have to get some work done now. Will watch 96L off and on today.

BFN
Quoting 567. DoRight:

I rarely bother with Tropical Storm activity even though I live in an area that can get serious storms, especially this time of year (re: Hurricane Mitch). Yesterday, on my way to work and after a cold front had pushed through our area of east central Honduras, a thought came to me, "This is going to cause hurricane activity off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama." My thought continued with an explanation of the cause. The cooler air is going to cause a strong gradient with the warm water abundant off the coasts this time of year. And the drier air is going to cause enhanced evaporation. I thought at the time, "That is unintuitive since dry air supposedly inhibits TS formation. From where did this thought come? It could only have come from God."
Then this morning a friend wrote to be careful with the storm coming our way. I checked WU, and lo, there it was.


Or it could just have been a lucky guess, dude. Just saying. <3
Looks like a bit of dry air in front of 93E. Notice the emanation of arc clouds to the west and north, signifying outflow boundaries and stable air hitting the ocean surface.



This will probably be an inhibiting factor to rapid intensification in the short-term, although that scenario remains possible later on if the inner core consolidates.
Quoting 569. HurricaneAndre:

This is why.

NOTE: All NRL web pages offline on Tuesday, 10-28 from 14-16Z for internal maintenance.


That's the NRL sites, but even the time in Nilofar's satellite image at the Navy site indicates 1430Z.
Also, 13:46 UTC is not between 14~16Z;

Quoting 574. Agentc100:


JOIN THE ILLUMINATI AND BE COME RICH AND POSSES POWER

lol, I saw that. Thanks for taking the heat, lol.

Well what is going to happen with it? Really, it's a legitimate question. It has not yet completely dissipated and looks to be back over water. There is a potent front quickly approaching. Seems to me that it may have a 24-48 hour window to possibly again reach TS status. Then what? May bring some enhanced rains to gulf coast?

IDK. I think at this point it is not going to just go "poof."





Quoting 566. kmanislander:



Careful, I got jumped on for suggesting this last night :-). The Monday morning quarter backs from late last night might see your post LOL

Quoting 566. kmanislander:



Careful, I got jumped on for suggesting this last night :-). The Monday morning quarter backs from late last night might see your post LOL
Yeah but I've known you for years. When YOU say it, I know you have a reason for it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
from the Lesser Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for
several hundred miles. Since upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive, some gradual development of this disturbance
is possible while it moves northwestward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph during the next few days. By the weekend, however,
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Regardless of development, this system will produce brief
periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of
the Lesser Antilles through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Quoting 576. HaoleboySurfEC:

lol, I saw that. Thanks for taking the heat, lol.

Well what is going to happen with it? Really, it's a legitimate question. It has not yet completely dissipated and looks to be back over water. There is a potent front quickly approaching. Seems to me that it may have a 24-48 hour window to possibly again reach TS status. Then what? May bring some enhanced rains to gulf coast?

IDK. I think at this point it is not going to just go "poof."








There is a small window for some additional organization before it reaches the coastal area of Belize. We'll just have to see what happens today but the low is back on the map, much to chagrin of some I am sure.

LOL x1000000000
The return of Hanna 96L

Told you guys

LLCS very very clear on position
agent...i am the illuminati....and you shall call me sir


where is invest 96L
Quoting 577. KoritheMan:


Yeah but I've known you for years. When YOU say it, I know you have a reason for it.



Hi Kori,

Appreciate that. Let's see how the day goes. Can't stay on now but will be back later.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LOL x1000000000
The return of Hanna 96L

Told you guys

LLCS very very clear on position
You Have done a good job tracking Hanna.
Quoting 582. hurricanes2018:
where is invest 96L

See my comments below.
Yup, fun to watch. Could get a little tug northward and spend more time over water and only skirt coast before full interaction with front. Interesting, will check toward late afternoon.

Gotta' go too. Aloha.

Quoting 579. kmanislander:



There is a small window for some additional organization before it reaches the coastal area of Belize. We'll just have to see what happens today but the low is back on the map, much to chagrin of some I am sure.


LOL x1000000000
The return of Hanna 96L

Told you guys

LLCS very very clear on position



correct me if i'm wrong...but weren't you telling us yesterday at this time...it was travelling in a different direction than it actually was?
Some good news for the forecasting and modelling skill of the Met Office for next year:



Met Office to build £97m supercomputer

Funding has been confirmed for a £97m supercomputer to improve the Met Office's weather forecasting and climate modelling.

The facility will work 13 times faster than the current system, enabling detailed, UK-wide forecast models with a resolution of 1.5km to be run every single hour, rather than every three.

It will be built in Exeter during 2015 and become operational next September.

The Met Office said it would deliver a "step change" in forecast accuracy.



Link
Halloween Weekend Snow to Bring First Flakes For Some in New England, Great Lakes, Appalachians (FORECAST) As the calendar switches to November, the season's first flakes may fall in parts of the Great Lakes and East.

591. JRRP
Some good news for the forecasting and modelling skill of the Met Office for next year:

i'd love to see that type of story here in the us...seems we see just the opposite ...less money...less money

Quoting 589. Envoirment:

Some good news for the forecasting and modelling skill of the Met Office for next year:



Link
Wouldn't that make the ECMWF even better than it is now?
96L moving NW (just as I thought it would)



maybe adding some snow to this weather map by the weekend

Quoting 594. Grothar:

96L moving NW (just as I thought it would)


You saw it first, didn't you?

*makes a mental note to up the ante. I'm not about to let someone much older than me be more astute. I should be young and full of vitality!*


here we go snow in my town!
How Much Snow?

While skillful, precise snowfall forecasts roughly 3-5 days out from an event are not possible, here is what we know about the snowfall potential from this system.

- High chance of accumulating snow: Adirondacks, Catskills, Green and White Mountains, W. Virginia mountains

- Some chance of accumulating snow: Michigan, northern Ohio, western and central Pennsylvania, New York (lower elevations), New England (lower elevations), southern Appalachian peaks
development can happen without models approval
cyclone Nilofar will target the Arabian Sea coast of Pakistan and India this week.



starting to look like a cat 4 storm to me!! look at the eye of this cyclone
Quoting 596. KoritheMan:


You saw it first, didn't you?

*makes a mental note to up the ante. I'm not about to let someone much older than me be more astute. I should be young and full of vitality!*



LOL. Actually, Kori. I would rather be young than astute.
96L or remnants of Hanna... looking very impressive on Satellite imagery. I must admit...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flas h-vis-long.html
Quoting 549. HaoleboySurfEC:

Well if right along the coast is in on it too, that would be somewhat rare this early. Not unheard of, but not common either. Water temps still relatively warm until after Thanksgiving, that's when they really dive.



Agreed. Happened 2 years ago almost exactly at this time...right after Sandy. Weather can be volatile this time of year. A strong enough low will win out against climatology though. Should be interesting.

Quoting 601. Grothar:



LOL. Actually, Kori. I would rather be young than astute.
Hey! I resent that! I think I'm _very_ astute for a 23 year old! :D
96L was just put up on the Tropical Atlantic site.
607. JRRP
Yup, I've seen rain at the beach, no snow on the ground, and 4" of wet snow at my house, 4 blocks away. Grew up NJ shore. Volatile. Agreed, should be fun to watch!

Quoting 603. wilsongti45:


Agreed. Happened 2 years ago almost exactly at this time...right after Sandy. Weather can be volatile this time of year. A strong enough low will win out against climatology though. Should be interesting.
Gro,

Hey nice abstract painting of a coelacanth. New hobby? :-)

Quoting 605. Grothar:


Quoting 604. KoritheMan:


Hey! I resent that! I think I'm _very_ astute for a 23 year old! :D


You must be about the same age as Alexander the Great when he had an empire!

Nothing wrong with being old if you are among equals.
Circulation can be seen on radar just off the coast.
Quoting 609. HaoleboySurfEC:

Gro,

Hey nice abstract painting of a coelacanth. New hobby? :-)




No. I've been drawing them as long as they've been around. :)

Just making sure we don't miss anything in the Atlantic. Things pop up so quickly these days.
recurve to fl possible
Quoting hurricanes2018:
img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png " style="max-width: 501px; The only system of interrest is 95L, approaching the Northern islands., so far...
Circulation of EX Hanna looks to be gaining more and more organization and could get reclassified again before interacting with the Yucatan and its also possible that 96L may miss the Yucatan all together. I would watch this one as it will be interesting to see how this interacts with a cold front coming down this Friday.


Quoting 567. DoRight:

I rarely bother with Tropical Storm activity even though I live in an area that can get serious storms, especially this time of year (re: Hurricane Mitch). Yesterday, on my way to work and after a cold front had pushed through our area of east central Honduras, a thought came to me, "This is going to cause hurricane activity off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama." My thought continued with an explanation of the cause. The cooler air is going to cause a strong gradient with the warm water abundant off the coasts this time of year. And the drier air is going to cause enhanced evaporation. I thought at the time, "That is unintuitive since dry air supposedly inhibits TS formation. From where did this thought come? It could only have come from God."
Then this morning a friend wrote to be careful with the storm coming our way. I checked WU, and lo, there it was.
Forecasting job well done! Weather fanatics tend to overlook the basic theories of meteorology and get all caught up in the models of the week. You'd be surprised what you can actually do with just a barometer, thermometer, pencil and paper, and a little intuition.
Quoting 605. Grothar:




Euro Ensembles are picking up on that area in the Central Atlantic Gro and moves it into S FL.

That area of blue in the Bahamas is this area in the Central Atlantic believe it or not.

The floater for Hanna is covering the 96L disturbance. This is the remnant low from Hanna we see now. Very little convection with it so far. We shall see what develops from this.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Wouldn't that make the ECMWF even better than it is now?

UKMET. That leaves the GFS falling even farther behind.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Scott just mentioned it, but TD9/94L/Hanna/96L just won't die. Center must've reformed last night as the old center died inland. Something's trying to get going just off the northern coast of Honduras. It's not moving too quickly and it won't hit land again until Belize. Might become a TD/weak TS again. NHC has completely botched this whole system (as have I of course, lol). It happens though, these things are hard to forecast and the only reason it looks bad for the NHC is because they're usually so accurate with this stuff.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:

Forecasting job well done! Weather fanatics tend to overlook the basic theories of meteorology and get all caught up in the models of the week. You'd be surprised what you can actually do with just a barometer, thermometer, pencil and paper, and a little intuition.
Yeah, that, plus the direct line to God always helps in forecasting...
Coelacanth really blossomed over the last 24 hours. Not much there 2 days ago.

Quoting 612. Grothar:



No. I've been drawing them as long as they've been around. :)

Just making sure we don't miss anything in the Atlantic. Things pop up so quickly these days.
625. MahFL
Quoting 619. sar2401:

The floater for Hanna is covering the 96L disturbance. This is the remnant low from Hanna we see now. Very little convection with it so far. We shall see what develops from this.


30 kts of shear down there....
"Forecasting job well done! Weather fanatics tend to overlook the basic theories of meteorology and get all caught up in the models of the week. You'd be surprised what you can actually do with just a barometer, thermometer, pencil and paper, and a little intuition."

He didn't use any of those tools! He said the thought came from god!
Quoting 618. StormTrackerScott:



Euro Ensembles are picking up on that area in the Central Atlantic Gro and moves it into S FL.

That area of blue in the Bahamas is this area in the Central Atlantic believe it or not.


The MDR has not looked this good since 2007.....:)