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Tropical Storm Franklin forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2011

Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.


Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.

94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.

92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.

Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.

93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting robert88:


Yeah lol...what a weird season so far
I think if this continues 93L will be reactivated.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not sure if this is what you want.


Wow, 92l looks much better than in infrared.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wow, 92l looks much better than in infrared.
Very heavy thunderstorms with it now.

Ahh zzz no update
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think if this continues 93L will be reactivated.


They pulled the plug to quickly on 93L IMO, still think it will be the main player in a few days.
1506. WxLogic
Good Morning...

93L trying to make a comeback.

00Z ECMWF is now trying to make it a possible strong to major HURR in 240HR:



Quoting Vincent4989:

Ahh zzz no update


merger? The edge of the convection fields of 92L and 7 are nearly connected. Can't imagine that's conducive for both to strengthen.
1510. WxLogic
For now (ant to be expected)... the ECMWF Ensembles do appear to be a bit split with some thinking a track closer to the upper Carib. Islands chain (which I would agree with a track a bit further south):



We'll see if at 12Z ECMWF wants to back out and/or if other models follow or diverge further, but if 93L continues to fire up convection and shielding it self from the dry air then it could have a change once more.

Convection wise ex93L is the most impressive this morning!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Convection wise ex93L is the most impressive this morning!
I agree.
1513. WxLogic
Quoting stormpetrol:

Convection wise ex93L is the most impressive this morning!


NVM... just saw the WV image updating. Was showing an old one.
1514. WxLogic
It's typical for waves to fire up once again once they past 50W (so far in this HURR season). The SSTs are warmer (more than enough) to allow a thermal profile to be more conductive for convection... specially when fighting lingering SAL.
ex- 93L looks the best among all these storms in infrared but 92L looks the best among all these storms in VIS.
1517. WxLogic
Current steering:



Noticed that easterly shear decreases as you head past 50W for a short while. Which should represent a small window of opportunity to get itself better established before entering the E Carib.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


merger? The edge of the convection fields of 92L and 7 are nearly connected. Can't imagine that's conducive for both to strengthen.

The NHC mentioned it on the discussion:
ONE SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH...OR ABSORBING...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Convection wise ex93L is the most impressive this morning!
What an intersteing season it's been. It seems when the NHC dubbs a system worthy of claiming a title of a certian % possibility of forming or a TD/TS status, it soon falls apart and dies. When they revoke that status (93L) it comes right back to life. I hope the Center is staying clear of late night poker games and lottery tickets~!
1520. FLdewey
Looks more like an MCS than an invest.

zzzzzzzzzz

Time to make, err eat the doughnuts.
I can't see us getting Gert out of TD7, unless it can pull itself back together.

how many hurricanes are we supposed to have this year?
Quoting thefixerupper:
how many hurricanes are we supposed to have this year?


'supposed'? Mother Nature herself hasn't decided.

Predicted? A fair few. Somewhere in the 6 to 10 bracket.
1527. Walshy
Quoting thefixerupper:
how many hurricanes are we supposed to have this year?


Above average.
1528. P451
AL07 looks horrible.





92L is starting to enter the same hostile conditions AL07 is in.

Dry air and shear continue to take their toll on all systems out there.





i think mother nature needs to get at least 1 hurricane out this season
1530. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
I can't see us getting Gert out of TD7, unless it can pull itself back together.



It's amazing the tiny windows these systems have found themselves in so far this year.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

93L trying to make a comeback.

00Z ECMWF is now trying to make it a possible strong to major HURR in 240HR:




Some how I don't think it takes 10 days for 93L to go from it's current position to just off the leeward islands.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

93L trying to make a comeback.

00Z ECMWF is now trying to make it a possible strong to major HURR in 240HR:



What the ECMWF depicts at 240 hours is not 93L, but rather another tropical wave.
Quoting P451:
AL07 looks horrible.





92L is starting to enter the same hostile conditions AL07 is in.

Dry air and shear continue to take their toll on all systems out there.






I agree dry air is taking its toll but i need a shear map to see if it is really taking its toll.
I wanna see the remains of Franklin come back around. That'd be funny.
...DEPRESSION MAKES A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST BUT STILL MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA...
8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 14
Location: 28.1°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
1538. P451
AL07 and 92L. A lot of dry air and shear. Convection goes poof....

Quoting thefixerupper:
my husband ses this year will be all hype and might not even see 1 named hurricane


Still trying to stir the pot?

Oh well.


1540. FLdewey
Quoting thefixerupper:
my husband ses this year will be all hype and might not even see 1 named hurricane


You should go spend more time with him.

Ka-bl-owey



So wait.... they used to pretend to be girls, now they pretend to be married.

Too much work if you ask me. ;-)
1541. P451
Quoting Vincent4989:

I agree dry air is taking its toll but i need a shear map to see if it is really taking its toll.


You don't need a shear map just any regular satellite loop will do.

You can see that AL07 is getting torn up by westerly shear and that the same processes are beginning to run over 92L.

The ULL that helped vent AL07 is shearing both systems and injecting dry air into their cores.

(ex)93L is being sheared by the easterly steering currents.

(ex)Emily and (ex)Franklin were both rapidly sheared to death.


We may have had all these invests and systems but the bottom line is the conditions have not been favorable for significant development. Shear, SAL, Dry air have all been ruling the waters.

It will change in the coming weeks. There's good reason why most seasoned forecasters don't consider the Atlantic a big threat until the last week of August through the first week of October.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Still trying to stir the pot?

Oh well.




Stirring the pot early this morning. My husband this, my husband that, my husband said the world is going to end next week. Think she needs to stop listening to her husband
not trying to stir anything but he said this 2 months ago and so far he has been right but im still watching and listening to all the weather experts here and on tv to see whats going on and hopefully we wont see any storms this year we dont need storms
To troll at 7am on a Sunday Morning? Now that's dedication to admire.

As anyone who's ever paid any attention to any hurricane season ever knows that the main hurricane period starts from mid August (what do you know? It's now) to mid October, typically. Chart, please.
1545. Walshy
Quoting thefixerupper:
not trying to stir anything but he said this 2 months ago and so far he has been right but im still watching and listening to all the weather experts here and on tv to see whats going on and hopefully we wont see any storms this year we dont need storms


Okay
1546. SLU
Impressive back-from-the-dead antics from 93L this morning. The NHC might mention it on the TWO.
i understand that.. thats why im watching and paying attention to all the weather experts here and on tv and so far its been very accurate with all these storms we have seen
ex 93 is the only game in town right now that is worth the bandwith
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Still trying to stir the pot?

Oh well.



I have that **** on ignore, just spitting out **** to get people to comment on it so even though people have this **** on ignore, we still see what **** they say.


Currently in Sydney, Australia
53.4°F
Going for a low of 45°F
With a few showers just off the coast.
1550. FLdewey
Quoting Cotillion:
To troll at 7am on a Sunday Morning? Now that's dedication to admire.


LOL... and the fake husband thing is a little creepy.

Let's just hope there is no dress up involved in this little skit. Reminds me of a Buffalo Bob from Joe Dirt. :-|

Quoting SLU:
Impressive back-from-the-dead antics from 93L this morning. The NHC might mention it on the TWO.



at least it deserves a yellow crayon circle ;)
Quoting P451:


You don't need a shear map just any regular satellite loop will do.

You can see that AL07 is getting torn up by westerly shear and that the same processes are beginning to run over 92L.

The ULL that helped vent AL07 is shearing both systems and injecting dry air into their cores.

(ex)93L is being sheared by the easterly steering currents.

(ex)Emily and (ex)Franklin were both rapidly sheared to death.


We may have had all these invests and systems but the bottom line is the conditions have not been favorable for significant development. Shear, SAL, Dry air have all been ruling the waters.

It will change in the coming weeks. There's good reason why most seasoned forecasters don't consider the Atlantic a big threat until the last week of August through the first week of October.


I dont see a naked swirl in 92L.
1553. aquak9
Quoting thefixerupper:
my husband ses this year will be all hype and might not even see 1 named hurricane


is your husband a blogger on here, too?
Quoting aquak9:


is your husband a blogger on here, too?
no he isnt on this site but he reads what everyone ses and he said the forcasting and tracks of these storms has been awsome so far
1557. FLdewey
Quoting aquak9:


is your husband a blogger on here, too?


LOL!

Morning water dawg.
Quoting aquak9:


is your husband a blogger on here, too?


Yeah, It's probably JFV's wife
Ex 93L is waking up from the dead this morning with some nice firing of convection. Dr. Masters said it would be moving into better conditions today and so far he appears to be correct. Wouldn't surprise me to see this reclassified as an invest by the NHC sometime today.
1561. Gaea
Quoting thefixerupper:
i think mother nature needs to get at least 1 hurricane out this season

Thank you very much for telling me how to run my planet.
Quoting Cotillion:
To troll at 7am on a Sunday Morning? Now that's dedication to admire.

As anyone who's ever paid any attention to any hurricane season ever knows that the main hurricane period starts from mid August (what do you know? It's now) to mid October, typically. Chart, please.


You ask, and shall receive:




Quoting FLdewey:


You should go spend more time with him.

Ka-bl-owey



So wait.... they used to pretend to be girls, now they pretend to be married.

Too much work if you ask me. ;-)
Is that Ka-bl-owey her husband....or the map?
Has the NHC updated their Graphical Outlook?
Morning Water puppy, Evening Aussie. Aussie, don't hold back next time, say what you mean. If they weren't a troll they would have gotten mad and shot the gap be now. JMO
1566. aquak9
oh SNAP!

hahaha hi ya'll. Sunday morning steaminess here in NE Fla.
Quoting justalurker:



at least it deserves a yellow crayon circle ;)
No yellow crayon yet BUT

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 9N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.
1568. FLdewey
Quoting Abacosurf:
Is that Ka-bl-owey her husband....or the map?


That was for the chart.

A good game would be to name this "husband"

I'm leaning towards Bocephus
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Water puppy, Evening Aussie. Aussie, don't hold back next time, say what you mean. If they weren't a troll they would have gotten mad and shot the gap be now. JMO

Good Evening to you, I don't want to hurt the little kiddies minds for the next 10 years with the words i could of said, plus i would probably get another 24hr ban.

May I add, I have just polished off 2 salmon steaks that were marinated in lemon and pepper, which I then grilled to perfection, topped off with thousand island sauce. Let me just say, It went down very nicely.
Wow, we're getting closer according to the CHAAAAARRRTTT and at the 20th the season is going to be crazy as indicated in the CHAAAAARTTT.
1572. P451
System affecting the Mid-Atlantic region with some flooding rains. 3-6" of overnight totals are common with more on the way.

1573. ackee
I am shock the NHC did not say anything about EX 93L guess because lost model support but its looking better now than when it had model support
1574. Walshy
Quoting thefixerupper:
the bottom line is that there has never been anyone on here who knows what is going on or going to happen everyone is totally wrong and waisting there time talking about crap storms that will not bother any land on the east coast...who cares about all these storms that are going to always fall apart and head way way out to sea but when they start out everyone ses they will be big and either hit the gom or the bahama or the east coast and as usual nothing happens i think ill stick to the weather channel you people have no clue what is going on or what is going to happen just face it your all bored and think you can predict storms (hahahahah) can we say wrong like 99% again this year the past 2 month...... will be lucky to see 1 maybe 2 real storms this season so stop talking nonsense when you all have been wrong all season so far about everything oh wait here comes another wave off africa and all the models say it will be a threat to the east coast in 10 days then poof not even a named storm hahahahahah bunch of idiots


Okay.
1576. FLdewey
See... just a little push and hotwheels99 comes out.

Warning... ALL CAPS ARE IMMINENT. (The same spelling errors will apply)

Good way to start the Sunday.
1579. Walshy
Quoting P451:
System affecting the Mid-Atlantic region with some flooding rains. 3-6" of overnight totals are common with more on the way.



Would this be the remains of Typhoon Mufia?
LOL, what a hoot of a troll.
Quoting Walshy:


Okay.

Maybe they should do what they are telling us, stop talking nonsense. I wonder if they no that weather is not an exact science. Also watching the weather channel is a great way to get information, NOT.
1583. SLU
TD #7 appears to be absorbing 92L into its circulation based on what I see on the latest visible images. If this holds true then that's going to be another feather in the cap of the UKMET and more points lost for the GFS which insisted that 92L would become a tropical cyclone even though the poor system couldn't even develop a surface circulation. sigh.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.htm l


Franklin makes an appearance!

Well, ex-Franklin. This Franklin is no more. It has ceased to be...

---

You know with all the impatience, it's a good job there wasn't Wunderground in some of the seasons gone by. Imagine the blog for 1950? No storms until mid August and then two months of major hurricanes. There'd be so many frazzled minds, it'd be like a reenactment of Scanners.
1586. hotrods
mmmmm! I think someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning!
1587. FLdewey
Tiny tornado threat today... woot woot.

Quoting Walshy:


Would this be the remains of Typhoon Mufia?

I would say no. Muifa dissipated over NE China E'rn Russia.
Quoting thefixerupper:
whos that for being a troll ?????? you people are obviously all gay go make your red velet cakes and say the word troll like little panzies and for gosd sake get a clue about weather and get something right for a change

You mad?
1591. FLdewey
Quoting FLdewey:
See... just a little push and hotwheels99 comes out.

Warning... ALL CAPS ARE IMMINENT. (The same spelling errors will apply)

Good way to start the Sunday.


Good call sir.
1593. P451
Quoting Vincent4989:

I dont see a naked swirl in 92L.


Why do you need to see a naked swirl to be convinced shear is impacting 92L?

92L may not have a naked swirl to show as it has been repeatedly analyzed as having no surface features.

All you need to do is look at displaced convection in 2 of the 3 systems analyzed and look at their cloud tops in loops. Then look at the cloud tops east of 92L being pulled east. 92L has begun to undergo shearing.

Quoting FLdewey:
See... just a little push and hotwheels99 comes out.

Warning... ALL CAPS ARE IMMINENT. (The same spelling errors will apply)

Good way to start the Sunday.


No kidding... just logged on and felt like i got hit in the face with a ball bat.

Good call on the all caps.

Saw models trying to hook on something else 10 days out.

Time to go digging for it.
1596. P451
Quoting thefixerupper:
WAIT WAIT I THINK 93 IS MAKING A COME BACK LAST NIGHT EVERY SAID ITS GOING INTO THE GOM THE DAY BEFORE IT WAS GOING TO THE BAHAMAS DOES ANYONE HAVE A CLUE???????? LMAO OH WAIT ITS COMMING BACK THIS TIME HEADING TO ALASKA LMAO


Cat 5 over the deforested mountains of Haiti followed by hypercane status over SFla and then a lavadoomicane over NOLA thereafter.

Love a Sunday morning trolling mission. Good morning regulars...back to laughing/lurking now
Goog morning

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
626 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ALONG THE MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF SOUTHWARD MOVING STORMS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH.

HEAT INDICES OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
Quoting Vincent4989:

You mad?

Can they just swear once, just one little swear word. Maybe if we keep poking they will finally bite. this is fun :-)
Quoting FLdewey:
Tiny tornado threat today... woot woot.



I think I heard they may have had one up towards Jensen Beach late yesterday.

Very nasty WX here in Boca last night.
Quoting FLdewey:


Good call sir.


*salutes.

That must be some really powerful espresso to have so much vigour this early.
the plus and minus on posts isn't working for me this morning. Is anyone else having that issue? And I also cannot figure out why people who have no real interest in weather and tropical cyclogenesis waste their time on a weather blog.
1604. aquak9
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?
Quoting whepton3:


No kidding... just logged on and felt like i got hit in the face with a ball bat.

Good call on the all caps.

Saw models trying to hook on something else 10 days out.

Time to go digging for it.

Here ya go, Link
1606. Walshy
Quoting thefixerupper:
LET ME GUESS THE NEW WAVE COMMING OFF AFRICA WILL HIT FLORIDA IN 10 DAYS AGAIN? HAHAHAHAHA YOU PEOPLE ARE QUACKS AND HAVE NO IDEA AT ALL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AND SPO FAR YOU HAVE A PERFECT RECORD AGAIN THIS YEAR WONG WRONG WORNG ABOUT EVERY STORM SO FAR BACK BACK TO WEATHER SCHOOL


How are you doing today?
1607. P451
Quoting Cotillion:


Franklin makes an appearance!

Well, ex-Franklin. This Franklin is no more. It has ceased to be...

---

You know with all the impatience, it's a good job there wasn't Wunderground in some of the seasons gone by. Imagine the blog for 1950? No storms until mid August and then two months of major hurricanes. There'd be so many frazzled minds, it'd be like a reenactment of Scanners.


This blog can't even handle fizzling blobs anymore....

Half the users can't even look at basic satellite imagery to see their precious blobs of supposed major hurricanes to be aren't in an environment conducive for significant development.

And nobody can read "The Chart" anymore.

A truly strange dynamic runs this place now.
She must have PMS or IBS. Midol will only help one and no I'm not a doctor but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Quoting aquak9:
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?


First I've heard of it.

It's... vivid.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No yellow crayon yet BUT

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 9N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.


Hi, good morning

The convection with ex 93L is outrunning the wave axis and is to the West of where the wave is actually located. Let's see if it does anything of note once it gets to 55W. The vorticity at 850 mbs has returned and is as good now as it has ever been but no sign of a surface circulation as far as I can tell from satellite imagery.

This one may be a sleeper for 75W and beyond
Quoting aquak9:
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?
no whoop-whoop from me. Don't want anyone to get the wrong idea....LOL
Quoting aquak9:
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?

Whoop-whoop!
1613. FLdewey
Quoting aquak9:
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?


<--- gay for red velvet cake donuts
1614. SLU
TD #7 trying to absorb 92L.
Quoting leelee75k:
the plus and minus on posts isn't working for me this morning. Is anyone else having that issue? And I also cannot figure out why people who have no real interest in weather and tropical cyclogenesis waste their time on a weather blog.

Simple..... To stir up trouble.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here ya go, Link


Thanks!

Juuust can see it pop in on the last few frames.
1617. aquak9
Red velvet cake is good stuff, Cotillion.
Quoting msgambler:
no whoop-whoop from me. Don't want anyone to get the wrong idea....LOL

lmao
1620. FLdewey
Quoting Cotillion:


*salutes.

That must be some really powerful espresso to have so much vigour this early.


LOL... nice.

Das blog needs a storm more than ever.
Quoting FLdewey:


That was for the chart.

A good game would be to name this "husband"

I'm leaning towards Bocephus


How about Belvedere???
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, good morning

The convection with ex 93L is outrunning the wave axis and is to the West of where the wave is actually located. Let's see if it does anything of note once it gets to 55W. The vorticity at 850 mbs has returned and is as good now as it has ever been but no sign of a surface circulation as far as I can tell from satellite imagery.

This one may be a sleeper for 75W and beyond
kind of reminds me of gilbert he developed just before the windwds
1624. SLU
Here's a better view of the absorption process in motion.
Quoting SLU:
TD #7 trying to absorb 92L.

Blowing up on the south side:
Quoting mcluvincane:
I don't think her husband is giving her what she needs..

or maybe to much and it's fried her brain.
Quoting ackee:
I am shock the NHC did not say anything about EX 93L guess because lost model support but its looking better now than when it had model support
The NHC did say something about it. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 9N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.
1628. P451
Quoting SLU:
TD #7 trying to absorb 92L.


It's been gaining on it that's for sure. Shear is dooming both systems right now. I'm not so sure about an absorption. I'd lean more towards both systems being torn apart before that.

I suppose the end result might be a single broad sheared plume of moisture.

Hard to expect much looking at the conditions out there right now. Although these tiny six hour windows do keep popping up out there so who knows.

I'm a little confused...

I see 92, 94, and the artist formerly known as Franklin... they've dropped 93 and I see TD7, but they're not in the same place.

Is TD7 a new entity and 93 got dropped?

Sorry, I missed something I think.
Quoting SLU:
Here's a better view of the absorption process in motion.

07L moving ever so slowly....Didn't Igor do that to a low to it's north when it was a weak TS?
Quoting P451:


This blog can't even handle fizzling blobs anymore....

Half the users can't even look at basic satellite imagery to see their precious blobs of supposed major hurricanes to be aren't in an environment conducive for significant development.

And nobody can read "The Chart" anymore.

A truly strange dynamic runs this place now.


Can't argue with that. For new guys, it's fine. We all learn. Others should know better.

Quoting islander101010:
kind of reminds me of gilbert he developed just before the windwds


Can we please stop comparing invests to historical Category Fives, seriously?
1632. SLU
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

07L moving ever so slowly....Didn't Igor do that to a low to it's north when it was a weak TS?


I believe so ... when it was near the Cape Verde Islands.
1633. jennT
:)

Quoting P451:


Cat 5 over the deforested mountains of Haiti followed by hypercane status over SFla and then a lavadoomicane over NOLA thereafter.

1634. FLdewey
Quoting johnbluedog69:


How about Belvedere???


Only if we could address him as Mr.
1635. P451
The system north of Bermuda looks just as good as TD07 looks. While not saying much I challenge someone to point out a reason why it's not even a declared invest.




Well...nothing going on of note. You can see the story even in that short rocking image. Shearing, SAL (the milky haze), dry air (we know all about it).

Still interesting to see these systems in their tiny little envelopes hit these short little windows of opportunity.

Quoting islander101010:
kind of reminds me of gilbert he developed just before the windwds


Gilbert was the end of the first week of September when conditions were prime for development.Conditions out there today are not the same, for instance the MJO has not returned yet and vertical instability is below average, both of which are negative factors for development to occur.

Putting those aside Gilbert did form at 12N and 54W, coordinates that the wave will pass through or close to fairly soon.

Quoting aquak9:
Red velvet cake is good stuff, Cotillion.


It looks appetising. Looks best to have pretty small portions, though. Learn something new everyday. ;)
Quoting whepton3:
I'm a little confused...

I see 92, 94, and the artist formerly known as Franklin... they've dropped 93 and I see TD7, but they're not in the same place.

Is TD7 a new entity and 93 got dropped?

Sorry, I missed something I think.

94L is TD7. 92L is just south of TD7 and 93L is SE of 92L by about 1000miles.
1640. P451
Quoting whepton3:
I'm a little confused...

I see 92, 94, and the artist formerly known as Franklin... they've dropped 93 and I see TD7, but they're not in the same place.

Is TD7 a new entity and 93 got dropped?

Sorry, I missed something I think.


Alright; who's hiding the red velvet cake
Share people "puff puff pass"

Oh and this just dont look right

Quoting P451:
The system north of Bermuda looks just as good as TD07 looks. While not saying much I challenge someone to point out a reason why it's not even a declared invest.




Well...nothing going on of note. You can see the story even in that short rocking image. Shearing, SAL (the milky haze), dry air (we know all about it).

Still interesting to see these systems in their tiny little envelopes hit these short little windows of opportunity.


It even has something that 92L doesn't have, a COC.
Quoting aquak9:
It's "pansies". No Z.

And most folks LIKE red velvet cake, regardless if they're gay, jolly, frolicking, or sad.

Can I get a whoop-whoop on the red velvet cake, folks?
Whoop-Whoop!

Good morning Aqua.
1644. SLU
Quoting P451:


It's been gaining on it that's for sure. Shear is dooming both systems right now. I'm not so sure about an absorption. I'd lean more towards both systems being torn apart before that.

I suppose the end result might be a single broad sheared plume of moisture.

Hard to expect much looking at the conditions out there right now. Although these tiny six hour windows do keep popping up out there so who knows.



If you look at the visible loop, you will notice that the low level clouds on the northern side of 92L which should be rotating around it's weak surface "circulation" centered near 23n 59w, are actually being drawn into TD #7 via its southerly low level inflow. That is an indication that TD #7 is becoming more dominant and trying to aborb what's left of 92L into its circulation. It also appears that TD #7 is getting better defined with "popcorn" firing close to and to the east of the center. This suggests that the convection is trying to make a comeback despite the moderate westerly shear and dry air.
Quoting AussieStorm:

94L is TD7. 92L is just south of TD7 and 93L is SE of 92L by about 1000miles.


Gotcha... I was just looking at LAT/LON again and it made sense.

Appreciate it!

Cable out in bad storms last night... lost internet... so getting up this morning and logging on it's like trying to get caught up on a season's worth of action.

Things are starting to be dynamic... 'tis the season.
Fixer upper,can I help you by suggesting you go to a house of worship today?It might help you feel better about yourself.Now a lot of people on here have problems with a religous conatation being brought up;but you would rather read and reply to this garbage?And awnsering him back in fill in the blank curse words?On a Sunday at that!Good morning aquak, Dewey,Have a blessed day.
oh goody...Alexandra Steele...has surfaced as a CNN meteorologist....when ya look like that, ya don't have to be smart...
Quoting P451:




Visual aids help... much appreciated.

Starting to get my head around everything after missing most of yesterday's action.

And from the looks of things we could see the re-emergence of 93L in a couple days time.
1650. FLdewey
Quoting presslord:
oh goody...Alexandra Steele...has surfaced as a CNN meteorologist....when ya look like that, ya don't have to be smart...


Woohoo... although her name doesn't quite scream meteorologist to me.
Morning everyone.Thanks for the Sydney report Aussie,looks like a decent winters day out there!
Back later
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Fixer upper,can I help you by suggesting you go to a house of worship today?It might help you feel better about yourself.Now a lot of people on here have problems with a religous conatation being brought up;but you would rather read and reply to this garbage?And awnsering him back in fill in the blank curse words?On a Sunday at that!Good morning aquak, Dewey,Have a blessed day.

Can i suggest Fixerupper just go. Maybe her husband might need his breakfast, Btw, It's 10:45pm here, and I went to church yesterday.
1654. P451
Quoting SLU:


If you look at the visible loop, you will notice that the low level clouds on the northern side of 92L which should be rotating around it's weak surface "circulation" centered near 23n 59w, are actually being drawn into TD #7 via its southerly low level inflow. That is an indication that TD #7 is becoming more dominant and trying to aborb what's left of 92L into its circulation. It also appears that TD #7 is getting better defined with "popcorn" firing close to and to the east of the center. This suggests that the convection is trying to make a comeback despite the moderate westerly shear and dry air.


I see what you mean now. Some interaction has definitely begun.

1655. FLdewey
Good morning SAINTHURRIFAN... good times.
Quoting kmanislander:


Gilbert was the end of the first week of September when conditions were prime for development.Conditions out there today are not the same, for instance the MJO has not returned yet and vertical instability is below average, both of which are negative factors for development to occur.

Putting those aside Gilbert did form at 12N and 54W, coordinates that the wave will pass through or close to fairly soon.

two wks off sorry
Quoting superpete:
Morning everyone.Thanks for the Sydney report Aussie,looks like a decent winters day out there!

Day, it's 10:45pm here. the Moon is shining brightly.
1658. P451
Quoting FLdewey:


Woohoo... although her name doesn't quite scream meteorologist to me.


Yeah I have a different um erm profession in mind when I see that name.

Pressure down a bit on 92L:

AL, 92, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 228N, 590W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 65, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TD7 hanging in there:

AL, 07, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 629W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,
Quoting FLdewey:
See... just a little push and hotwheels99 comes out.

Warning... ALL CAPS ARE IMMINENT. (The same spelling errors will apply)

Good way to start the Sunday.


I got news for ya. Hotwheels was on a few days ago quoting a site, Central Florida Hurricane Center which blew off most all of the Invests as being non threats to the conus or not developing in the near future (this was several days ago. He was slammed by near everyone on the blog, "poofed", asked to explain his reasoning and told to take a hike basically. I dont know much about hotwheels...but right now as compared to alot of folks he's looking like a hero. LOL,,,,,
Quoting barotropic:


I got news for ya. Hotwheels was on a few days ago quoting a site, Central Florida Hurricane Center which blew off most all of the Invests as being non threats to the conus or not developing in the near future (this was several days ago. He was slammed by near everyone on the blog, "poofed", asked to explain his reasoning and told to take a hike basically. I dont know much about hotwheels...but right now as compared to alot of folks he's looking like a hero. LOL,,,,,

I would only put someone on ignore if they talk **** like Miss Fixerupper. I just checked, Hotwheels is not on my ignore list.
1664. FLdewey
Quoting barotropic:


I got news for ya. Hotwheels was on a few days ago quoting a site, Central Florida Hurricane Center which blew off most all of the Invests as being non threats to the conus or not developing in the near future (this was several days ago. He was slammed by near everyone on the blog, "poofed", asked to explain his reasoning and told to take a hike basically. I dont know much about hotwheels...but right now as compared to alot of folks he's looking like a hero. LOL,,,,,


I got news for ya. I was more speaking of that handle's writing style. It starts out friendly, progresses to disagreement, moves to yelling, then to ALL CAPS. Finally it snaps, freaks out, calls everyone names and leaves. Only to return the next day to repeat the cycle.

I have to admit it is kind of fun to watch.

The next big thing should be a weather fetus. "I'm due in 7 days and my mom says that this storm is a fish"
1665. SLU
Quoting P451:


I see what you mean now. Some interaction has definitely begun.



The beginning of the end for 92L. Thumbs up UKMET (Y).
Quoting NavarreMark:
I wake this morning to see the blobs of chicanery continue to baffle WUers near and far. Latest model runs show them all going poleward after Emily.

Take heart wishcasters. New waves will continue to develop and your fantasy of a landfalling storm may still come true.

I'm not gonna bother showing ya the chart.

Lol, it's been shown already tonight.
For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening:

1668. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:
I wake this morning to see the blobs of chicanery continue to baffle WUers near and far. Latest model runs show them all going poleward after Emily.

Take heart wishcasters. New waves will continue to develop and your fantasy of a landfalling storm may still come true.

I'm not gonna bother showing ya the chart.


AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah hhh!

(That was the word of the day)

Little peewee's playhouse reference.

Ha ha.

I still say blobs of chicanery would make a great scifi show.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening:



WoW ....Amazing.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening:


What I am amazed at is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

Any news if there was more that 4 people killed, If that is the final figure, going by that video, it's also amazing not more were killed.
1671. FLdewey
Quoting Neapolitan:
For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening:



Yikes... 5 people killed and 40+ injured.

Scary stuff.
1672. aquak9
What I am amazed it is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

A sad state of folks' mindset these days, Aussie. So many folks want to be "taken care of", so very few want to "take care of".
Just something I've come across now, though it was released last year. Earlier this year with the volcanic eruptions of Grimsvotn and Nabro, a few people speculated on the link between volcanoes and storms.

An article here talks about a potential impact on a European windstorm: Link

Go to pages 10 and 11. Thought you might want to have a look.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening:


:O
1675. FLdewey
Tons of people run for the stage. at :33 you can see them crowding around the mangled steel.

There are some good shots on the AP wire of people helping... there was no shortage.



Quoting AussieStorm:

Day, it's 10:45pm here. the Moon is shining brightly.
But of course LoL, I see the radar was centered in Terry Hills, I have family in Frenchs Forest just nearby
Morning everyone.....I had family members there....It was horrible as my nyphew said. They was not on the ground but in the seating area when the stage collapsed. SAD!
1678. emcf30
Quoting aquak9:
What I am amazed it is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

A sad state of folks' mindset these days, Aussie. So many folks want to be "taken care of", so very few want to "take care of".


There was a lot of bystanders trying to help. They even were attempting to lift the stage off of people that were trapped.



BTW, Whoop Whoop
From Wiki:
"Franklin was a very short lived tropical storm, losing its tropical characteristics just 30 hours after forming. The typical tropical cyclone usually about lasts 3 to 5 days."
1680. aquak9
yeah I re-watched the video, Dewey- there were quite a few folks running in quickly.
Quoting superpete:
But of course LoL, I see the radar was centered in Terry Hills, I have family in Frenchs Forest just nearby

That is the new radar site in Sydney, was only turned on about a year ago. Woolongong also got a radar update which was sorely needed.
1682. robj144
Quoting AussieStorm:

What I am amazed at is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

Any news if there was more that 4 people killed, If that is the final figure, going by that video, it's also amazing not more were killed.


Why would you run towards a collapsing structure? Seems to me a lot were concerned after it fell, and went to help.
1683. ncstorm
Azores high..southwest

Surprised the middle of the Atlantic near 12N 55W is not at least an Invest!
Former93L is showing some cyconic turning in the mid levels near 12N47W. as i said yesterday this could be the player down the road. waiting to see more development between 50-55W.
Quoting robj144:


Why would you run towards a collapsing structure? Seems to me a lot were concerned after it fell, and went to help.

I was talking about after it collapsed.
Quoting presslord:
oh goody...Alexandra Steele...has surfaced as a CNN meteorologist....when ya look like that, ya don't have to be smart...


She's a little anorexic, she's got that skeletor face, I guess it's some contrast for CNN now for those with that can't handle seeing a big beautiful woman met on TV like Bonnie Schneider.
Quoting ncstorm:
Azores high..southwest


That has 93L as a Low. yet NHC don't have a yellow circle around it.
Quoting stoormfury:
Former93L is showing some cyconic turning in the mid levels near 12N47W. as i said yesterday this could be the player down the road. waiting to see more development between 50-55W.



yep i just posted the same except i was off some in the longitude.....sorry!
Quoting robj144:


Why would you run towards a collapsing structure? Seems to me a lot were concerned after it fell, and went to help.


This. I wouldn't immediately run mindlessly into a potentially fatal situation to have a chance at saving someone. I'd likely become part of the problem and have to be saved. First I'd get back to where I'm temporarily safe and can cautiously assess the situation. Then I'd run back to the stage to see if I can help anyone who's trapped.
1691. ncstorm
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was talking about after it collapsed.


I see people running back to the stage after it collapse to help those trap..its a common reaction to run from something that is about to crush you but even after it falls, you see people forget their fear and try to assist the injured..
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This. I wouldn't immediately run mindlessly into a potentially fatal situation to have a chance at saving someone. I'd likely become part of the problem and have to be saved. First I'd get back to where I'm temporarily safe and can cautiously assess the situation. Then I'd run back to the stage to see if I can help anyone who's trapped.

+1
Aloha all. Been lurking for years! Currently at 18N65W more or less. Keep the great tropical info coming.
When is the MJO due to be back?
1695. nymore
It was not a micro burst that caused the collapse but a gust front or an (outflow boundary). Some may call it a macro burst or straight line winds such as in a bow echo or derecho. Micro bursts happen over very small areas this one started well west of the fair with reports of winds exceeding 75 MPH.
Quoting ncstorm:


I see people running back to the stage after it collapse to help those trap..its a common reaction to run from something that is about to crush you but even after it falls, you see people forget their fear and try to assist the injured..

and that's what i said, many running away but also some running to help.
1697. ncstorm
is it possible to have a noreastern in the summer..it looks like the people in the north east are going to have a serious storm come next week

1699. FLdewey
<----- Spastic clicking
1700. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:


I feel much safer knowing that Dewey is monitoring the AP wire for ust.


News is always better before its manhandled.

And you should feel safe, or BE SAFE!
1701. FLdewey
They named a new hurricane scale after IKE. You rock IKE!

FORT MYERS, Fla. – A newly patented hurricane scale better predicts the potential destruction from both wind and storm surge, but the National Hurricane Center won't say whether it will be endorsed or used.

The scale, called Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE, is the legacy of Hurricane Charley, which pummeled southwest Florida seven years ago Saturday; Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005; and Hurricane Ike, which inundated Galveston, Texas, in 2008.

Full Story
Quoting ncstorm:
is it possible to have a noreastern in the summer..it looks like the people in the north east are going to have a serious storm come next week

I don't really understand this but in the last image on the bottom left, would that be 93L as a TS ?
00z ECMWF has a powerful hurricane developing by 162 hours.. interesting. Lets see if its consistent.
Morning every one and aloha Kahuna. Love this blog. Love to read what each and everyone has to say. I too lurk but have learned alot from the regulars. Keep up the good work and thanks
Complete Update

Its like NASCAR out there... except they forgot which way to turn.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Who wouldn't feel safe around a face like that?LOL
The Indianapolis Star says that a State Police Special Ops Commander and the fair's Executive Director made a decision to evacuate the fair grounds after the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the area. That was at 8:43. But a minute later, the program director at WLHK, the radio station sponsoring the concert, announced that the show would go on.

The stage blew down two minutes after that.

Uh-oh.

At any rate, death is no stranger to the Indy State Fair; in 1963, a gas explosion at the fairgrounds killed 74 and injured 400.

The Indy NWS LSR for the event.
Nea, sounds like the promoter may have some splainin' to do in coming days.
Sorry, program director
Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF has a powerful hurricane developing by 162 hours.. interesting. Lets see if its consistent.


From which wave is that scenario?
Quoting msgambler:
Nea, sounds like the promoter may have some splainin' to do in coming days.


Just means Money won over common sense... it happens more and more everyday.
Glad I wasn't at that fair, it was really promoted hear in Northern Indiana.
And probably always will Orca
The ACE so far in the Atlantic is very low after the brief Franklin appeareance. Is at 10.305.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was talking about after it collapsed.
As you can clearly see in post 1678. There are a lot more than 1 person responding to the stage to help.
1716. Grothar
Looks like a very confusing Atlantic this morning. I wouldn't eliminate 93L from the picture just yet. I still believe that this is one that should be monitored closely. It appears that the conditions will be much more favorable for development in a few days and 93L should track into the Caribbean. Once it does, if the timing is write, it should start a more Northward turn in the Western Caribbean if it survives. With ridging expected at the time, it could threaten the Western Gulf or move back and affect the Eastern US. The MJO should be changing in the next few days.

Refugee camps overflowing in Africa crisis
Jason Om, Sunday August 14, 2011 - 20:48 EST

The humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa has reached a dubious milestone, with the number of people in Dadaab - the world's largest refugee camp - now surpassing 400,000.

Each day hundreds of Somali refugees are spilling into Dadaab in Kenya to flee famine and conflict in their home country, but the camp was originally built to house just 90,000 people.

The influx is partly the result of the worst drought in decades. Across the region aid agencies say more than 10 million people need help.

Human rights groups have slammed the Kenyan government for keeping a big section of the camp closed during the crisis.

The camp, which is funded by international donors, has been closed despite space for 40,000 people. Known as Ifo 2, the camp contains houses, schools and water.

World Vision Australia CEO Tim Costello is visiting the camp and has seen the many desperate faces.

He says the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has been able to resolve the impasse.

He says 23,000 refugees will starting shifting to the new section from today, and that moving the refugees "is like releasing the air from a tire that is about to explode."

"As we were in the camps today that news swept through and priority lists are being made of those who should go in first. So very welcome news and it's a terribly overcrowded camp," he said.

"It's horrifying and you know that we can save lives if we can act quickly, but if we had heeded the warnings back in November, we just have this nightmare of a train wreck that we could have in part avoided."

'Staggering' rate of death

Lane Hartill, who is in Dadaab for Save the Children, says the camp is going to fill up "very quickly", and says half the refugees are children who arrive malnourished, sick and exhausted.

He says the rate of death in the Horn of Africa is "staggering".

"If they arrive unaccompanied we will look for family members in the camp. If there are none we will help place the children in foster families and we will also counsel them if they're in difficult psychological states," he said.

"There's going to be more need for space and the drought is predicted to continue for more months, so it's likely we're going to see tens of thousands of more people coming in, which is really creating a problem."

Mr Hartill says Somalis go through a great ordeal just to make the camp.

"Rape does happen. Oftentimes unfortunately women are very careful about what they say when they arrive, there's a stigma surrounding it. We do know it is happening," he said.

"There's a lot of perils on that journey, such as rape and banditry. Just what these Somalis go through when they come to Dadaab is incredible, and so by the time they reach here, not only are they in need of food and water but psychologically they're in a very very fragile state."


© ABC 2011
1718. SLU
Time series of the ECMWF's proposed Atlantic tropical cyclone. Just the mere fact it's the EURO it needs to be taken with some concern ....







1719. nigel20
Morning guys, i see that ex 93L is still fighting to stay alive.
1720. ncstorm
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't really understand this but in the last image on the bottom left, would that be 93L as a TS ?
I'm not sure..I looked up the description of their products and images for this map but they dont have an explanation of the circle around the Low..it does however have a pressure of 1008mb
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Indianapolis Star says that a State Police Special Ops Commander and the fair's Executive Director made a decision to evacuate the fair grounds after the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the area. That was at 8:43. But a minute later, the program director at WLHK, the radio station sponsoring the concert, announced that the show would go on.

The stage blew down two minutes after that.

Uh-oh.

At any rate, death is no stranger to the Indy State Fair; in 1963, a gas explosion at the fairgrounds killed 74 and injured 400.

The Indy NWS LSR for the event.


I can smell a big lawsuit coming on. To go against NWS and law enforcement is a big no no in any country.
Quoting ncstorm:
That is what I saw which is why I asked. 93L is definitely a fighter though. It also happens to be still East of where Felix developed.
1723. Grothar
1724. aquak9
1701- first link contains eye-opening photos. Vendor's tables cleared, being used as stretchers. Good write-up by the Star.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I can smell a big lawsuit coming on. To go against NWS and law enforcement is a big no no in any country.


Its the logic they use..
I know what would happen up here & in Aus if a promoter even attempted a stunt like that. Up here law enforcement does not "recommend" that an event be stop. They just pull the plug and its over.

Same way with evacuations in emergency & weather.. they don't "ask" you to leave... they "tell" you to leave.
1726. nigel20
Ex 93L should have more favorable conditions in the next couple of days.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the logic they use..
I know what would happen up here & in Aus if a promoter even attempted a stunt like that. Up here law enforcement does not "recommend" that an event be stop. They just pull the plug and its over.

Correct. law enforcement has the 1st and last say if a show goes on. period.
To go against that and something happens then it's all on there head. NWS and law enforcement will be pointing there fingers at the promoter which was the radio station.
1728. SLU
The EURO might not have done well with some of the weak, short-lived cylones in the sub-tropical Atlantic so far this year but it has nailed all of the invests in the deep tropics. It showed little or no development with EMILY, 92L and 93L and so far it's been very right.
1729. ncstorm
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the logic they use..
I know what would happen up here & in Aus if a promoter even attempted a stunt like that. Up here law enforcement does not "recommend" that an event be stop. They just pull the plug and its over.


Think it's pretty much the same here as well. We had football games postponed because the police weren't happy after the riots. First weekend and all, clubs weren't happy, but did understand the police said no and that was it.
I can't believe they de-invested (is that a word?) 93L, it's actually looking better (convection wise) than 92L. I think NHC will re-invest it at 2:00 PM, although vorticity is still not there.
1732. Patrap
Where was the er,,Vancouver Law Enforcement pulling the Plug after they Lost the Stanley Cup in , er,..Canada Land ?




That said, on this occasion, the stage fell down three minutes after the initial severe thunderstorm warning.

Orderly evacuations cannot take place in just three minutes.

A lawsuit may come in this tragedy, but a bit of perspective may be required if the paper is correct.
1734. Grothar
93L looks a little better than last night.

Quoting Patrap:
Where was the er,,Vancouver Law Enforcement pulling the Plug after they Lost the Stanley Cup in , er,..Canada Land ?






Probably watching the reruns of people shooting the Rescuers & Police in NOLA.

Stupid question Pat, they were there trying to stop it.
1736. P451
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Indianapolis Star says that a State Police Special Ops Commander and the fair's Executive Director made a decision to evacuate the fair grounds after the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the area. That was at 8:43. But a minute later, the program director at WLHK, the radio station sponsoring the concert, announced that the show would go on.

The stage blew down two minutes after that.

Uh-oh.

At any rate, death is no stranger to the Indy State Fair; in 1963, a gas explosion at the fairgrounds killed 74 and injured 400.

The Indy NWS LSR for the event.



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.

Quoting AussieStorm:


I can smell a big lawsuit coming on. To go against NWS and law enforcement is a big no no in any country.


Went to the Jets-Minny Monday night NFL game this year. Severe warnings were flying everywhere. Serious wind damage, frequent cloud to ground lightning, you name it - it happened.

There was no public warning announced. We were only told the teams were leaving the field due to lightning. They left the fans on their own LOL.

1737. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:
93L looks a little better than last night.



So do I ,,

Hmmmmmmm...?
1738. P451
Quoting SLU:
Time series of the ECMWF's proposed Atlantic tropical cyclone. Just the mere fact it's the EURO it needs to be taken with some concern ....









What's the love affair with the EURO? It busts as much as any other model.
1739. nymore
The radio guy told the crowd they should be prepared to seek shelter if conditions changed. Sometimes weather events happen with very little warning this looks like one of those events. Example sometimes a thunderstorm builds and produces a tornado or devastating straight line winds with no warning of any type being issued. Question should I then be able to sue the NWS because they did not tell me the problem was coming or do I have some personal responsibility.
1740. Patrap
These cops Mr. Hoover from Vancouver?

Danzinger Bridge case: 5 officers convicted in post-Katrina shootings


If you can show me where anyone was convicted of shooting at cops after K,,Id gladly eat your Puck.


Comparing wholesale calamity to er,,a Hockey Game is very,er,Candadian of yas,sport.

good morn all i see 92 is all but gone with 07L hanging on and former 93l becomes an AOI lets see if it comes on strong

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/50.00W


07L/TD/G/CX


yes i mentioned yesterday we had a busy atlantic but 3 out of the 4 disturbances were going to bother the fish only...the one i was concerned about 93L has lost lots of convection and is being destroyed by the SAL ...down the road i dont see much of a future for this system...it has to overcome a lot of obstacles if it going to make it to the caribbean...its looking more and more likely we wont have our first hurricane until sometime in september...this is going to be exactly like last year no landfalls but lot of activity turning into fish storms...so everyone should not get to excited until and when a system enters the caribbean or is in the GOM...i see no change in the current patterns we have out there now....
Quoting AussieStorm:


I can smell a big lawsuit coming on. To go against NWS and law enforcement is a big no no in any country.
So No Common Sense for any people attending? I am not out in bad weather period.
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.



Went to the Jets-Minny Monday night NFL game this year. Severe warnings were flying everywhere. Serious wind damage, frequent cloud to ground lightning, you name it - it happened.

There was no public warning announced. We were only told the teams were leaving the field due to lightning. They left the fans on their own LOL.


and if a lightning strike hit in the crowd, it would of been lawsuit heaven for lawyers.
Could see Gert at 2pm.


pressure down a notch.
AL, 07, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 629W, 30, 1010, TD
1746. P451
Impressive low. Note convection firing on the NE quad of the center as it crosses into Lake Erie. Looks better than anything out in the tropics right now. LOL.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morn all i see 92 is all but gone with 07L hanging on and former 93l becomes an AOI lets see if it comes on strong

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/50.00W


07L/TD/G/CX




Did your heatwave finally break KOG?
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...
1749. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


So do I ,,

Hmmmmmmm...?


Maybe we will have to reactivate you, too.
1750. nigel20
Ex 93L should have more favorable conditions than Don, so i wouldn't count out ex 93L.
1751. Patrap
That is impressive P451.
Quoting presslord:
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...


Link
1753. Patrap
Hot Tea is kickin in Gro,,thanx
1754. bappit
.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see Gert at 2pm.


pressure down a notch.
AL, 07, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 629W, 30, 1010, TD


It's looking a touch better than before with the convective blowup towards the centre, though I think an upgrade that early is a touch premature.

It needs to prove it can hold onto it and build.
now we should turn our attention to thye central gom with a cool front stalling down there a surface low may form on the end of the front on monday on tuesday...this si something that warrants keeping and eye on considering the ssts in the central gom...we will see what happens there...
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So No Common Sense for any people attending? I am not out in bad weather period.

the NWS and law enforcement pulled the plug on the show, yet the promoter, the radio station pulled it back in and then the **** hit the fan when the stage area collapsed. IMO the promoter is to blame. Yes people have the choice of leaving anytime, but I guess when people pay out hard earned cash to attend a fair and to probably watch there favorite singer perform, I would probably stay too. Investigations should be done on why the promoter went against NWS and law enforcement advice and why did the stage collapse.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link


many thanks...it just irritates the crap outta me that he knows somethin' I didn't teach him...
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.



Went to the Jets-Minny Monday night NFL game this year. Severe warnings were flying everywhere. Serious wind damage, frequent cloud to ground lightning, you name it - it happened.

There was no public warning announced. We were only told the teams were leaving the field due to lightning. They left the fans on their own LOL.


I know what you're saying. But a simple, "Sorry, folks, due to the threat of severe weather, the concert will be postponed until the threat passes. Please seek shelter" might have saved some lives. It certainly would have prompted the union electricians in the rigging to climb down ASAP.

So far as "personal responsibility", there's much legal precedent. After all, you have the right to not fly, but once you're in the plane, you're safety is the airlines.

Bottom line: if the concert promoter/sponsor willfully overruled the advice and/or demands of the police or anyone else--and we don't know if that's actually what happened--there will be deep legal and financial repercussions. As there should be.
Quoting nymore:
The radio guy told the crowd they should be prepared to seek shelter if conditions changed. Sometimes weather events happen with very little warning this looks like one of those events. Example sometimes a thunderstorm builds and produces a tornado or devastating straight line winds with no warning of any type being issued. Question should I then be able to sue the NWS because they did not tell me the problem was coming or do I have some personal responsibility.
if the sky turns black then to a light shade of green with what looks like a wall of cloud moving towards me iam getting the hell out of the way iam not going to be standing there drinking a bud saying hey look at me
1762. SLU
Quoting aquak9:
What I am amazed it is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

A sad state of folks' mindset these days, Aussie. So many folks want to be "taken care of", so very few want to "take care of".


I don't now what video you watched, but I saw hundreds running to help. . . . and reported as such by local news. Watch the video again before slamming the good people of Indiana
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a very confusing Atlantic this morning. I wouldn't eliminate 93L from the picture just yet. I still believe that this is one that should be monitored closely. It appears that the conditions will be much more favorable for development in a few days and 93L should track into the Caribbean. Once it does, if the timing is write, it should start a more Northward turn in the Western Caribbean if it survives. With ridging expected at the time, it could threaten the Western Gulf or move back and affect the Eastern US. The MJO should be changing in the next few days.




I thought they deactivated 93L. But i saw somebody said it is back. When do you think this will happen. I'm not good with the models.
1765. SLU
Quoting P451:


What's the love affair with the EURO? It busts as much as any other model.


Well it seems the NHC is also in bed with the EURO for calling it one of the most reliable computer models in at least the last 4 years.
Quoting Patrap:
Hot Tea is kickin in Gro,,thanx

I have a steaming hot cuppa right in front of me. In fact, it's to hot to drink right now.
Quoting NavarreMark:
Football games should NEVER be cancelled or delayed due to weather.



well i think thats a DUMB statement...you try to play in vivid dangerous lightning and see how you like it...they should call a game as soon as the lightning is seen in the area...that goes for all sports played outside...
1768. sigh
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.


It doesn't say the severe thunderstorm warning was issued three minutes prior, it says the decision to evacuate was made three minutes prior. I don't know when the NWS issued a warning, but it was almost certainly earlier. The article does mention the state police were backstage monitoring the approaching storm on radar -- a NWS radar, I might add -- so they had all the information they needed, warning or not.

At any rate, the idea of anyone being able to sue the NWS is absurd.

.
1769. jasblt
Is this the new hurricane scale they have been talking about using for storms? Or just a tool to add to the SS scale?



Link

1770. Patrap
psssssssssssssssssssssst, Hey,,wake up NEW Blog entry
Quoting presslord:
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...


here ya go Press
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

I know what you're saying. But a simple, "Sorry, folks, due to the threat of severe weather, the concert will be postponed until the threat passes. Please seek shelter" might have saved some lives. It certainly would have prompted the union electricians in the rigging to climb down ASAP.

So far as "personal responsibility", there's much legal precedent. After all, you have the right to not fly, but once you're in the plane, you're safety is the airlines.

Bottom line: if the concert promoter/sponsor willfully overruled the advice and/or demands of the police or anyone else--and we don't know if that's actually what happened--there will be deep legal and financial repercussions. As there should be.




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did your heatwave finally break KOG?
yes the ex starts on friday heat is done watch it rain for the first week of the ex always does then heat will be back as the kids get ready for school last week of aug first week of sept we only got 6 weeks to go fish before the first night frosts show up
1775. Grothar
Quoting lurkster:



I thought they deactivated 93L. But i saw somebody said it is back. When do you think this will happen. I'm not good with the models.


I don't know. Until they put 93L back up it will be hard to say. I do agree with the other bloggers that it should become better organized, but it it looking very good now. Had some dry air ahead of it.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.
seems like a combination of updraft lift then gust front topple
NEW BLOG
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This. I wouldn't immediately run mindlessly into a potentially fatal situation to have a chance at saving someone. I'd likely become part of the problem and have to be saved. First I'd get back to where I'm temporarily safe and can cautiously assess the situation. Then I'd run back to the stage to see if I can help anyone who's trapped.
But if it is your son ,Mom, brother, Dad, or friend, you never know what would be your inmediate reaction,talking from my own personal experience. You just want to save your loveone.
Quoting FLdewey:
They named a new hurricane scale after IKE. You rock IKE!

FORT MYERS, Fla. – A newly patented hurricane scale better predicts the potential destruction from both wind and storm surge, but the National Hurricane Center won't say whether it will be endorsed or used.

The scale, called Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE, is the legacy of Hurricane Charley, which pummeled southwest Florida seven years ago Saturday; Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005; and Hurricane Ike, which inundated Galveston, Texas, in 2008.

Full Story


If they named it after Ike, it would be the DDHIS (Debbie Downer Hurricane Intensity Scale) or the EBZHIS (Extreme Buzzkill Hurricane Intensity Scale). I kinda prefer EBZHIS, because that is easier to pronounce. LOL.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i think thats a DUMB statement...you try to play in vivid dangerous lightning and see how you like it...they should call a game as soon as the lightning is seen in the area...that goes for all sports played outside...
He was joking.
1781. wn1995
NHC calling for it to make it to 60 mph again. TS Warning issued for bermuda.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.

Yeah, like the iceberg was "just one more factor" for the Titanic. ;-)
Quoting NavarreMark:


I will repeat the statement. Football games should NEVER be cancelled or delayed due to weather.

Spent to many years enduring rocky mountain blizzards at mile high amid sold out seats. Nobody ever went home and the games went on.

The timid of heart should stick to the domes.


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.