WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Erika's future highly uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

The tropical wave we were calling Invest 94 finally decided to stop dawdling and become Tropical Storm Erika yesterday. However, Erika seems intent upon keeping us guessing about its intentions, as the storm's future track and intensity remain highly uncertain. After a modest burst of intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm last night, Erika has become quite disorganized this morning. The Hurricane Hunters found multiple swirling centers inside Erika early this morning, and the main center took a jump to the southwest to relocate itself under a batch of intense thunderstorms. The exact location and path of Erika remain uncertain at this point, and it is possible the storm will have another center relocation later today. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. Why, then, is Erika so disorganized? The trouble with the various wind shear analyses we use is that they take a crude average of winds over a thick layer to arrive at an average shear, and this large-scale average shear does not capture thin layers of shear that can dramatically affect a tropical cyclone. Upper air data from Guadeloupe and Saint Martin from last night show a complicated shear pattern in Erika's region, with 30 knot winds out of the south to southwest at 200 mb height, nearly calm winds between 300 - 500 mb, and northeasterly winds of 10 - 20 knots from the surface to 500 mb. Some extremely dry air with humidities near 10% was present in a thin layer near 600 mb on the Guadeloupe sounding, so dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is probably being injected by a northeasterly jet of wind into the core of Erika. The shear of 30 knots at the top of the storm is ripping away the heat and moisture Erika's thunderstorms are lifting there, and the result of the shear and dry air is a very disorganized tropical storm.

Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the future track of the storm will depend greatly upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. Given the complicated nature of the wind shear pattern in the region, it is difficult to forecast how strong Erika will get. Virtually anything can happen over the next five days, from dissipation (as forecast by the ECMWF model) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Large-scale wind shear is expected to increase to 20 - 25 knots between 3 - 4 days from now, so Erika will have to deal with an increasing amount of adversity. The storm is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast, particularly if the storm stays weak over the next three days. Potential landfall solutions from the models range from Florida on Tuesday (GFS model) to North Carolina on Wednesday (Canadian model).


Figure 1. Morning image of Tropical Storm Erika, showing a false center over Guadaloupe--one of several surface swirls the Hurricane Hunters found in the storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave off the coast of Africa we were watching on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low chance of developing into a tropical depression has been done in by the dry air of the Sahara, and is no longer a threat to develop. A large and well-organized tropical wave will emerge from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and several of the models develop this low into a tropical depression by early next week. The remains of an old cold front off the coast of North Carolina could serve as a breeding ground for some tropical development Friday or Saturday, but anything that forms in this region would get swept quickly northeastward into New England by Sunday without enough time to become a tropical depression.

Hurricane Jimena nears Baja
Hurricane Jimena has steadily weakened over the past day, and is now down to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The storm should continue to steadily weaken over the next 24 hours as the waters under the hurricane cool from 28°C to 27°C. Jimena is battering a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast, and largely spared the tourist mecca on the southern tip of Baja. It now appears unlikely that moisture from Jimena will reach the Southwestern U.S., and the hurricane appears poised to stall out over Baja and die five days from now.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.


Figure 3. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update by 4pm this afternoon, when the data from the next hurricane hunter flight into Erika will be available.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting IKE:


Here's one from about 5 minutes ago....

"Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe (Airport)
Updated: 4 min 40 sec ago
Clear
85 °F
Clear
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.82 in (Falling)
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Elevation: 36 ft".....


***That location is 24 miles from the latest coordinates***
wind up 2 mph from previous loc intersting lets see wwhat that plane finds
Quoting stormno:
yes texas hurricane watch the eastern gom for the next 72 hours will get really interesting down there...sst are upper 80s...so watch closely..Stormno


ok, something that may be a west(Texas)gulf concern or a east gulf concern (Florida)?
Quoting Nimitz:


1) Get rid of Norton.
2) Install AVG
3) Turn off any second-party tool bars.
4) Never, EVER click on an ad, or open an email from someone you don't know, or open an attachment from anyone unless they send you an email first to tell you it's coming.

And IMHO, ditch Outlook, get Eudora.

Avast is free for virus scanning.

Also, if you want something other than Eudora, I suggest Thunderbird.

And finally... Firefox with NoScript will block most of the java ads unless you manually accept it.
Erica is a fighter...looking at the shear maps things could get very interesting with shear just at 5- 10 knots in the Bahama region.
Quoting Nimitz:


1) Get rid of Norton.
2) Install AVG
3) Turn off any second-party tool bars.
4) Never, EVER click on an ad, or open an email from someone you don't know, or open an attachment from anyone unless they send you an email first to tell you it's coming.

And IMHO, ditch Outlook, get Eudora.


All great until you're using a corporate asset, then you;re kinda stuck. For me however, I would change the AVG to McAfee...
1006. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

most of the winds were on the east side of the system but will see


Here's the coordinates of the airport...Lat/Lon: 16.3 N 61.5 W

Erika is centered at 16.2N and 61.1W. Center is east of the airport.
Quoting bluewaterblues:
Erica is a fighter...looking at the shear maps things could get very interesting with shear just at 5- 10 knots in the Bahama region.
Yes, this is what the concern is, I believe. We will just have to see if her circulation can hold together until it makes it to the "safe" area. She won't have a problem with that unless she moves over Hispaniola with 10k+ ft peaks.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, something that may be a west(Texas)gulf concern or a east gulf concern (Florida)?

Stormno is watching his toilet bowl model again. There is always a potential for a storm to spin up off a stalled front in the GOM, but it will take some time to get rolling in that situation. (Humberto was a different situation).
Hey all i am reporting from the Weather Research Lab at ULM and we are analyzing Erika...I agree that she appears to be weakening but i think better conditions will ensue once she gets closer to the Bahamas...i also think the 12Z GFDL has the best track for this system as of now...
Quoting WXHam:


Depends on which party you belong to


thats good one
I am not on here everyday, but I have seen bloggers on here today being very childish. It is unbelieveable to me that adults are acting worst than my 3 and 4 yr olds. "I'm tellin on you" I'm gonna get you in trouble". Please grow up, and report people who need to be reported. Or better yet if you just can't help yourself don't brag when you do report someone. Or you can report yourself for letting us all know you reported someone ---- because guess what ----ready----
YOU ARE NO LONGER ON TOPIC!!!!

Sorry to anyone who this does not pertain to.
1013. SQUAWK
Quoting Floodman:


All great until you're using a corporate asset, then you;re kinda stuck. For me however, I would change the AVG to McAfee...


We had McAfee on the corp machines here and it was awful. Support was even worse.
Quoting keys33070:
I am not on here everyday, but I have seen bloggers on here today being very childish. It is unbelieveable to me that adults are acting worst than my 3 and 4 yr olds. "I'm tellin on you" I'm gonna get you in trouble". Please grow up, and report people who need to be reported. Or better yet if you just can't help yourself don't brag when you do report someone. Or you can report yourself for letting us all know you reported someone ---- because guess what ----ready----
YOU ARE NO LONGER ON TOPIC!!!!

Sorry to anyone who this does not pertain to.


LOL...well said!
If the storm misses florida completely and into the GOM it will be no more than a strong TS or minimal hurricane; however if it track a little more to the north it has enough warm water and ocean distance to become a CAT 2-3
Erika looks horrible today. shear and dry air has been doing a number on her. she'll need another blow up of convection over her center soon or there might not be much left once she's in the SE Bahamas.
Quoting keys33070:
I am not on here everyday, but I have seen bloggers on here today being very childish. It is unbelieveable to me that adults are acting worst than my 3 and 4 yr olds. "I'm tellin on you" I'm gonna get you in trouble". Please grow up, and report people who need to be reported. Or better yet if you just can't help yourself don't brag when you do report someone. Or you can report yourself for letting us all know you reported someone ---- because guess what ----ready----
YOU ARE NO LONGER ON TOPIC!!!!

Sorry to anyone who this does not pertain to.


OMG so true and so awesome lol
Quoting IKE:


Here's the coordinates of the airport...Lat/Lon: 16.3%uFFFD N 61.5%uFFFD W

Erika is centered at 16.2N and 61.1W. Center is east of the airport.


how can something located at 61.5W be located east of something located at 61.1W. The airport is on Guadeloupe which is west of Erika's center.
Just had the first rubble of thunder here in Dominica. Have been having some light showers coming in from the WSW for the last few hours. Sounds like the heavier stuff is around the corner. Wish the forward speed would pick up. I fear the rain damage in these mountains.
Quoting SQUAWK:


We had McAfee on the corp machines here and it was awful. Support was even worse.


I used it in corporate environments for the better part of 12 years and had no issues; Norton on the other hand...well, let's just say you buy a new machine install the prog and lose 25% of your overhead...LOL

It may have been the way it was configured; the "groupware" was a little tricky to config...we use it here (I run IT for my company) and we haven't had a problem inside the firewall...now, when assets go outside and the person wants to be free and easy browsing, then I get problems
Quoting jeffs713:

Avast is free for virus scanning.

Also, if you want something other than Eudora, I suggest Thunderbird.

And finally... Firefox with NoScript will block most of the java ads unless you manually accept it.

yup, I have Firefox and Thunderbid ;)
Quoting forestwedder:
Just had the first rubble of thunder here in Dominica. Have been having some light showers coming in from the WSW for the last few hours. Sounds like the heavier stuff is around the corner. Wish the forward speed would pick up. I fear the rain damage in these mountains.



I haven't read any updates lately. How much rain do they expect you guys to get?
Quoting SQUAWK:


We had McAfee on the corp machines here and it was awful. Support was even worse.


i know fully well about that...we still have it here at the office and it sucks !!!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2009
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:49:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°38'N 60°50'W (16.6333N 60.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (118 km) to the NE (53°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 742m (2,434ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 93 nautical miles (107 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 28kts (From the ENE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:27:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center
Ike said the center of Erika is east of the airport yet the airport has a SE wind. if Erika had a defined circulation that airport should have a west wind.
1027. WXHam
I thought that lat/long was for the false center?
TD winds at the center
Quoting Weather456:
TD winds at the center


oh wait nevermind, you said at the center

the highest surface winds so far is 40mph
1030. SQUAWK
Quoting Floodman:


I used it in corporate environments for the better part of 12 years and had no issues; Norton on the other hand...well, let's just ssay you buy a new machine install the prog and lose 25% of your overhead...LOL

It mahy have been the way ot was configured; the "groupware" was a little tricky to config...we use it here (I run IT for my company) and we haven't had a problem inside the firewall...now, when assets go outside and the person wants to be free and easy browsing, then I get problems


Makes sense. We do a lot of heavy graphics and the overhead for McAfee was killing us. Switched to Trend and machines are much faster now and we have had no issues of late.
Quoting Weather456:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2009
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:49:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°38'N 60°50'W (16.6333N 60.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (118 km) to the NE (53°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 742m (2,434ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 93 nautical miles (107 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 28kts (From the ENE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:27:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center


Condensed version

Quoting Weather456:


how can something located at 61.5W be located east of something located at 61.1W. The airport is on Guadeloupe which is west of Erika's center.

isn't that what he said.. the center is east of the airport?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It says 40mph winds, that is still a TS


A TS by 1 mph AND with a tilted circulation having the flight level center S of the surface low by 12 miles.
1035. IKE
Quoting chevycanes:
Ike said the center of Erika is east of the airport yet the airport has a SE wind. if Erika had a defined circulation that airport should have a west wind.


You're right about that. I hadn't thought about that.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


oh wait nevermind, you said at the center

the highest surface winds so far is 40mph


yea the strongest winds seem well away from the center.
Vortex Message doesn't support current intensity.

Flight level winds were 23 knots, the SFMR was 40 knots.
Quoting Weather456:


yea the strongest winds seem well away from the center.



Is that normal?
1039. Patrap
.." Im so Confused..?"

Sigh
Quoting keys33070:



Is that normal?


no...not for weak systems...it was the same case for Danny.
My greatest fear is that this thing will survive all adversity, than pop up over the bath waters between Cuba and the Bahamas, charge up to cat 4, slam my house in Boca Raton (south Palm Beach co.) than ride up the coast...

I have already tasted Frances and Wilma's eyewalls, and that was enough for me! (With Wilma, I was in the closet with a mattress over my head)

I don't count any of these systems out until they are well north of me...
1042. Relix
Those winds over the center are quite pathetic. Erika will probably struggle until she's over the caribbean, and even then that will be hard. She could barely survive, it depends on where she hits.
Quoting Weather456:


no...not for weak systems...it was the same case for Danny.


So does that mean there is still a likelyhood of further development?
Quoting SQUAWK:


We had McAfee on the corp machines here and it was awful. Support was even worse.

McAfee = McCrappy. Its almost as much of bloatware as Norton, but it is just as ineffective. But as flood mentioned, if you are on a corporate network, your choices are limited, and you are best off following common sense.
02/1745 UTC 16.0N 62.1W T1.5/2.5 ERIKA -- Atlantic

Really struggling.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.5 2.2
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

isn't that what he said.. the center is east of the airport?


Who's on first?
Norman Anitvirus.
recon just found winds of 54mph at the surface
1049. Relix
Quoting Cotillion:
02/1745 UTC 16.0N 62.1W T1.5/2.5 ERIKA -- Atlantic

Really struggling.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.5 2.2


As weak as it was when it was an invest. Wow =P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Vortex Message doesn't support current intensity.

Flight level winds were 23 knots, the SFMR was 40 knots.


The SMFR might be off... In shallow water (i.e. near the islands) the SMFR can show much higher winds speeds than are actually valid thanks the wave action.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Who's on first?
Exactly
1052. Relix
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
recon just found winds of 54mph at the surface


Where?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
recon just found winds of 54mph at the surface


Looks sort of suspect though considering the other readings. Could be a gust or something.
what is the little green dot near the center of the red blob in the latest funktop loop?
1055. Seastep
964 IKE -

LOL.

Quote's not working for me for some reason now.
So again I'll ask about the virus cause I'm not a computer tech - I'm getting the virus message only when I pull up this site or refresh it. Can I or do I need to do anything (note: sarcastic answers will be ignored) :) Thanks
1057. Drakoen
Erika is centered a bit to the north and east of the NHC coordinates
I'm confused. Sorry if someone else has asked this question...

Why does the NHC have Erika as a TD at 120 hrs but the intensity models all range from 75-90 knots?
1059. IKE
Looking at a floater on Erika and the coordinates the NHC lists, I see where they say the COC is at...it's the naked swirl heading, what looks like, south of west from that island.
bocawind I am with you until there are no clouds in the sky or the system is north of me I do not stop watching and monitoring them. I have a 15 month old and 2 dogs so I can't make last minute decisions. I have been through Francis, Jeane and Wilma. 3 too many for me :)
I wonder if a new center could form near the new burst of convection around 17N 59W.... What do you think? ... Vis Loop
000
WHXX01 KWBC 021826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC WED SEP 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA (AL062009) 20090902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090902 1800 090903 0600 090903 1800 090904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 61.3W 16.9N 63.2W 17.6N 65.2W 18.2N 67.3W
BAMD 16.4N 61.3W 16.9N 62.7W 17.4N 64.2W 17.9N 65.4W
BAMM 16.4N 61.3W 16.7N 62.9W 17.2N 64.5W 17.6N 65.9W
LBAR 16.4N 61.3W 16.9N 63.0W 17.6N 64.9W 18.2N 66.7W
SHIP 35KTS 32KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090904 1800 090905 1800 090906 1800 090907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 69.3W 19.7N 73.4W 20.3N 77.6W 20.6N 81.3W
BAMD 18.2N 66.6W 18.5N 69.0W 19.1N 71.8W 20.0N 74.7W
BAMM 18.0N 67.4W 18.6N 70.7W 19.3N 74.2W 20.0N 77.5W
LBAR 18.8N 68.4W 19.4N 71.7W 19.4N 74.6W 19.2N 77.2W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 51KTS 55KTS
DSHP 41KTS 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 61.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 58.8W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

That SHIPs intensity has come down a fair jump this time round.
Guys I'm login out, Erika is killing me and I have decided to stay away from the blog for the next twelve hours and hopefully by then we should have a better idea of where this baby is going. I have 6 cold ones in the fridge, and I now for sure where those are going.
so confusing...so what should i expect for puerto rico rain and some wind or sunshine and breezy conditions...north? south? fizzle or fizazle...my head hurts....DAMN U ERIKA!
Quoting keys33070:



I haven't read any updates lately. How much rain do they expect you guys to get?


If the forward speed remains this low I'm guessing anywhere upwards of 6" especially where I am 1500ft up in the centre of the island. We often can get 4" plus from the normal waves that pass through. We are talking about an area with 200" + annually.
1067. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricanehanna:
So again I'll ask about the virus cause I'm not a computer tech - I'm getting the virus message only when I pull up this site or refresh it. Can I or do I need to do anything (note: sarcastic answers will be ignored) :) Thanks

Pay the $10 and become a member and you will never have the problem again. Plus you get a lot more features that the site offers.
Quoting IKE:
Looking at a floater on Erika and the coordinates the NHC lists, I see where they say the COC is at...it's the naked swirl heading, what looks like, south of west from that island.

thats the old coc the new one is in the convection
Quoting Drakoen:
Erika is centered a bit to the north and east of the NHC coordinates


A have this feeling too
1070. centex
yes WU has virsus issue or something that's being flagged as a virus.
1071. Grothar
Quoting jeffs713:

For 925Mb to the surface, its generally good to take 20-25% off.


Thanks Jeff!!
Quoting jeffs713:

McAfee = McCrappy. Its almost as much of bloatware as Norton, but it is just as ineffective. But as flood mentioned, if you are on a corporate network, your choices are limited, and you are best off following common sense.


The other thing to remember is to never, and I mean under no circumstances ever install two Virus scanners on one machine. It's okay to run Malwarebytes or Adware on a machine with Norton, say, but never Norton AND AVG...bad juju; each AV software install sees the other as a virus and you get bad spooky things going on
12z ECMWF,CMC,UKMET dissipate erika in the not too distant future.
1074. Seastep
Quote

966. jeffs713 2:04 PM EDT on September 02, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting leftovers:
are the bad guys targeting google ads or are they aiming at dr masters blog?


Its google ads. I've never had an issue on here, but I also have a paid subscription with no ads. (and NoScript on my home computer)

-- End Quote ---

Sorry, quote's not working. Not ads because I am paid member. Virus scanner caught it, though.

Tip: Keep your virus defs updated DAILY, not weekly. Used to be ok, but not anymore.
1075. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Erika is centered a bit to the north and east of the NHC coordinates


I see what you're saying as far as convection. Where the NHC has the center is a naked swirl. And the naked swirl looks headed WSW, looking at it again.
Squak - I am a paying memmber
Quoting bocahurricane:
bocawind I am with you until there are no clouds in the sky or the system is north of me I do not stop watching and monitoring them. I have a 15 month old and 2 dogs so I can't make last minute decisions. I have been through Francis, Jeane and Wilma. 3 too many for me :)


You are doing the responsible thing. That is how a smart person should take this.
1078. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Looking at a floater on Erika and the coordinates the NHC lists, I see where they say the COC is at...it's the naked swirl heading, what looks like, south of west from that island.


Erika center is just east of the islands. It is not the naked swirl. Center is at 16.6N 60.8W
1079. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

thats the old coc the new one is in the convection


That's the latest coc according to the NHC....

Location: 16.2°N 61.1°W
near 17N 59W ?
1081. Seastep
42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph)
18:21:30Z 15.600N 59.583W 958.7 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg) 434 meters
(~ 1,424 feet) 1008.2 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 163° at 42 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 48.3 mph)
I am seeing PLENTY of TS force wind readings from recon
1084. SQUAWK
Quoting Floodman:


The other thing to remember is to never, and I mean under no circumstances ever install two Virus scanners on one machine. It's okay to run Malwarebytes or Adware on a machine with Norton, say, but never Norton AND AVG...bad juju; each AV software install sees the other as a virus and you get bad spooky things going on


Have you ever tried to uninstall Norton or McAfee??
Quoting centex:
yes WU has virsus issue or something that's being flagged as a virus.


Again, it's not this site but something someone linked to; if this site did have a some kind of virus (it's not really a virus, it's an exploit...two totally different things) then most of us would have it...
Quoting bocahurricane:
bocawind I am with you until there are no clouds in the sky or the system is north of me I do not stop watching and monitoring them. I have a 15 month old and 2 dogs so I can't make last minute decisions. I have been through Francis, Jeane and Wilma. 3 too many for me :)


Well, I was dumb enough not to put my shutters up for Wilma! BIG MISTAKE. It was a sheer miracle that my florida room windows didn't brake, considering that the aluminum beams from my pool enclosure were flying around. Just dumb luck. Fortunately my wife and daughter were out of town... Learned a good lesson on that one.
Quoting mrpuertorico:
so confusing...so what should i expect for puerto rico rain and some wind or sunshine and breezy conditions...north? south? fizzle or fizazle...my head hurts....DAMN U ERIKA!



It all goes back to no one really knows what she will decide to, typical of a woman, but what was Andrews excuse -- didn't he play games for a while, then BAM suprise I'm here.
Quoting IKE:


I see what you're saying as far as convection. Where the NHC has the center is a naked swirl. And the naked swirl looks headed WSW, looking at it again.
ihave been saying that all morning.
thx canehunter! Have a good afternoon everyone.
1090. Drakoen
Recon vortex message of the center is 16.6N 60.8W
Yeah, a few more now coming up. Still minimal TS readings. Just about hanging on.

Quoting mrpuertorico:
so confusing...so what should i expect for puerto rico rain and some wind or sunshine and breezy conditions...north? south? fizzle or fizazle...my head hurts....DAMN U ERIKA!


If anybody should be able to figure it out its you. Afterall you are MR. Puerto Rico.
BOP,

yep
1094. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Squak - I am a paying memmber

Now that is scary. I have not ever had a problem because I don't get the ads. Are you seeing ads??
1095. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Erika center is just east of the islands. It is not the naked swirl 16.6N 60.8W


Okay...I see the recon fix. NHC was wrong on their coordinates listed.
1096. Seastep
Sorry, I'm a little behind folks. Got off to run a quick scan.

I'll stop after this one unless something really strong pops up, but no downgrade yet.

47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph)
Quoting SQUAWK:


Have you ever tried to uninstall Norton or McAfee??


I had to do it the other day...someone installed Norton on a McAfee box here...drop into safe mode as administrator and uninstall it...
I see several readings above 45mph, but most of them are 40-45

either way with a 1 mb drop in pressure; I dont see how Erika ibeing downgraded to a TD at 5pm
1099. Drakoen
Quoting JupiterFL:


If anybody should be able to figure it out its you. Afterall you are MR. Puerto Rico.

Or he could ask Mrs Puerto Rico. You know, behind every good man is a good woman sorta thing :)
1094. Squak - nope, no ads.

Quote feature doesn't work either. I've run everything. It's only hitting from this site.
oh boy that is scary. My husband thinks I am nuts but I have tons of hurricane plans should something come our way because I do not want my daughter going through anything more then a cat 1.
Quoting hurricane23:
12z ECMWF,CMC,UKMET dissipate erika in the not too distant future.


really

Link
Quoting IKE:


Okay...I see the recon fix. NHC was wrong on their coordinates listed.

so it's more northeast than they had it?
Quoting SQUAWK:

Pay the $10 and become a member and you will never have the problem again. Plus you get a lot more features that the site offers.


It is so worth it. The site works much better.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Hey all i am reporting from the Weather Research Lab at ULM and we are analyzing Erika...I agree that she appears to be weakening but i think better conditions will ensue once she gets closer to the Bahamas...i also think the 12Z GFDL has the best track for this system as of now...


Would that be ULM, as in the University of Louisiana Monroe? Alias, the Tide Rollers?
;)

Quoting dwpearson:
Norman Anitvirus.


I love it...medieval French software...not very effective on the modern, non-peasant CPUs
once she get into the n.e. carib. im looking for intensification. climatelogy says so but im not sure about the current environment
1111. centex
It is a virus JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen low risk trojan type.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


really

Link


I dont see where the CMC or EURO dissipates Erika
Quoting hurricanehanna:
1094. Squak - nope, no ads.

Quote feature doesn't work either. I've run everything. It's only hitting from this site.

I'd reboot
Quoting Drakoen:
Well wow. It looks like it is going to hit PR haha. That is fairly guaranteed.
Quoting SQUAWK:

Pay the $10 and become a member and you will never have the problem again. Plus you get a lot more features that the site offers.

Truer words have not been spoken.

The $10 a YEAR is well worth the investment.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I am seeing PLENTY of TS force wind readings from recon


At this point there's no doubt that Erika is still a tropical storm. but it's struggling to bring all the pieces together. I do think that if Erika gets a 24 hour window with low shear, the storm will take off like a rocket. Fortunately Shear doesn't appear to be abating in the near term.

Though with the slow movement of the storm, I wonder if we're looking at a lurker of a storm that simply holds on. Something needs to move the storm along before it does get a chance to gather strength and become a real threat.

1117. IKE
This airport is 42 miles WSW of the recon center fix.

I'll be watching to see if their winds ever come up. If not, those winds from recon may not be reaching the ground.
Quoting bocahurricane:
oh boy that is scary. My husband thinks I am nuts but I have tons of hurricane plans should something come our way because I do not want my daughter going through anything more then a cat 1.



Me as well!!! Nothing wrong with that. One can be under prepared, but never overly.
1119. SQUAWK
Quoting Floodman:


I had to do it the other day...someone installed Norton on a McAfee box here...drop into safe mode as administrator and uninstall it...

Norton leaves all manner of junk behind when you do uninstall from control panel. You have to go to Norton's site and download their uninstall program and it will do a good job. Learned that the hard way. Same with McAfee. Neither one does a complete uninstall from control panel.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
1094. Squak - nope, no ads.

Quote feature doesn't work either. I've run everything. It's only hitting from this site.

Quoting likely isn't working because you have javascript turned off. You need to authorize scripts for both weatherunderground.com, and wxug.com.
1122. Drakoen
NHC track likely to shift to the south and west a bit:

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I dont see where the CMC or EURO dissipates Erika

cmc does on the 12z run, but the ecmwf doesnt by what i was looking at. Not that any of that necessarily means anything. She will do what she wants regardless of what the models say
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


really

Link


Is it me or did that run look off. She appears to jump all over the place.
1125. IKE
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

so it's more northeast than they had it?


By about 25 miles.
Quoting GeauxGirl:


Would that be ULM, as in the University of Louisiana Monroe? Alias, the Tide Rollers?
;)


Ya thats where he is.
Quoting GeauxGirl:


Would that be ULM, as in the University of Louisiana Monroe? Alias, the Tide Rollers?
;)



Tide Rollers? lol but yeah its ULM i work in the WRC
Erika isn't over....Look at the HUGE wave that will be coming off Africa!!!!!
Seems Erika is slightly intensifying.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Well wow. It looks like it is going to hit PR haha. That is fairly guaranteed.


and u happy about that?
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

cmc does on the 12z run, but the ecmwf doesnt by what i was looking at. Not that any of that necessarily means anything. She will do what she wants regardless of what the models say


23 of course forgot to mention one very important thing. CMC kills Erika because it brings it over Hispanoila.

Guess that wasnt important
McAfee just blocked a Trojan from this site.
62.0w 15.9n
Everythning about ERIKA from day 1 has been all over the place. I havent got a clue what she is gonna do or when. I am just watching and waiting. Even if she dissipates, i wont count her out, I will keep checking back for regeneration.. as i have seen it happen quite a few time before and when they are close to home you gotta keep your eyes open.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
62.0w 15.9n


again that is NOT the true center

even recon verified that
Here's what I don't get...

From the RGB image at 1745 or 4 minutes before the vortex fix was taken (1749), the center of the naked swirl is over one degree west of their coordinates and a little over a half of a degree south of their coordinates.

Their coordinates: 16.6333N 60.8333W

Center of Naked Swirl at 1745: 16.0N 62.0W


They mention a 10 mile tilt to the north which would explain the half degree south bias, but does NOT explain the west by over a degree bias...

What am I missing? Is there something wrong with the SSD projection?
RGB Loop
Quoting TriniGirl26:


and u happy about that?
Indifferent. It isn't a threat to the island, and the island will help it not to be a threat to me.
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SYNOPSIS SEPTEMBER 02, 2009 ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EDT


Good info thanks! If you do not mind me asking...where were you stationed towards the end of your enlistment? You look familiar.
center of other circulation moving wsw
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Everythning about ERIKA from day 1 has been all over the place. I havent got a clue what she is gonna do or when. I am just watching and waiting. Even if she dissipates, i wont count her out, I will keep checking back for regeneration.. as i have seen it happen quite a few time before and when they are close to home you gotta keep your eyes open.


She is like a crazy ex girlfriend
Quoting bocahurricane:
oh boy that is scary. My husband thinks I am nuts but I have tons of hurricane plans should something come our way because I do not want my daughter going through anything more then a cat 1.


I decided to ignore categories. Anything that comes my way, I will shutter up. Wilma was supposed to be no big deal, and it did way more damage to my house than Francis or Jeanne combined.

Plus, cyclones can ramp up very quickly in the warm waters in front of us.
ok jp, please keep me outa your arguments with 23. I was just noting that the link i have didnt show what he was saying. Maybe mine is wrong.
Ahhh crud... track and model shift... man the life rafts... the blog is going to go nuts with doom casters :(

Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Here's what I don't get...

From the RGB image at 1745 or 4 minutes before the vortex fix was taken (1749), the center of the naked swirl is over one degree west of their coordinates and a little over a half of a degree south of their coordinates.

Their coordinates: 16.6333N 60.8333W

Center of Naked Swirl at 1745: 16.0N 62.0W


They mention a 10 mile tilt to the north which would explain the half degree south bias, but does NOT explain the west by over a degree bias...

What am I missing? Is there something wrong with the SSD projection?
RGB Loop


the naked swirl is NOT the true center

the NHC positions is the average between the two circulations, but to me it appears the one inside the convection is winning out.
I see nothing has changed this afternoon.

Erika's future remains EXTREMELY hard to forecast. Anywhere between the northern portions of Cuba to north of the Bahamas.....and anywhere between dissipated and Category 3 hurricane is possible.
1147. IKE
What a reversal on the 12Z CMC. Here's the last frame before hitting DR/Haiti....at 36 hours....

Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
ok jp, please keep me outa your arguments with 23. I was just noting that the link i have didnt show what he was saying. Maybe mine is wrong.


no yours was right, I see it too
Quoting keys33070:



It all goes back to no one really knows what she will decide to, typical of a woman, but what was Andrews excuse -- didn't he play games for a while, then BAM suprise I'm here.


lol its like a blind date you don't know how its going to go until its done
Quoting apocalyps2:


a new blew up of convention.


You might want to remove that post. Pretty sure the government can arrest you for posting things like that.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ahhh crud... track and model shift... man the life rafts... the blog is going to go nuts with doom casters :(



Kman was right about her wanting to enter the Carib.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
center of other circulation moving wsw

Amen to that!!
Quoting centex:
It is a virus JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen low risk trojan type.


By definition, a virus replicates itself...I Love You was a virus; it infected your machine and spread itself by emailing copies pof itself to all the entries in your address book. A trojan comes from one place (a website, mostly) and typically (at least these days) carries a payload that does a redirect (browser capture), a monitior (the PC connects to a server somehwere and reports on keystrokes, web browsing, etc.) or a take over (the code takes control of your PC and makes it do things like join in a DOS attack on a server somewhere); this is not a virus...it's an exploit
i did not say it was the coc of erika, but obviously erika is following that swirl.
Quoting AllStar17:
I see nothing has changed this afternoon.

Erika's future remains EXTREMELY hard to forecast. Anywhere between the northern portions of Cuba to north of the Bahamas.....and anywhere between dissipated and Category 3 hurricane is possible.

yep
Erika may not even go into the Bahamas, maybe it will continue west into the Caribbean. Environmental conditions?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ahhh crud... track and model shift... man the life rafts... the blog is going to go nuts with doom casters :(


if that pans out I can't see it possibly surviving going over Hispaniola
1160. Drakoen
Erika has dual closed low level circulations according to the surface observations and recon data. The naked one that has raced out will likely not be able to maintain itself.
1161. IKE
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Here's what I don't get...

From the RGB image at 1745 or 4 minutes before the vortex fix was taken (1749), the center of the naked swirl is over one degree west of their coordinates and a little over a half of a degree south of their coordinates.

Their coordinates: 16.6333N 60.8333W

Center of Naked Swirl at 1745: 16.0N 62.0W


They mention a 10 mile tilt to the north which would explain the half degree south bias, but does NOT explain the west by over a degree bias...

What am I missing? Is there something wrong with the SSD projection?
RGB Loop


In case nobody else responds, I'm not knowledgeable enough to answer your question.
depends on the land interaction.
Quoting IKE:
What a reversal on the 12Z CMC. Here's the last frame before hitting DR/Haiti....at 36 hours....

And note the low pressure off the NE coast.
Quoting apocalyps2:
Could erika be a problem for the egyptian pyramides?


Don't know, but I heard she will cause a blizzard on the moon, no really check it out. It is noted in the 7-14 day outlook....
Erika appears to be following the naked swirl towards the WSW. It may not be good if Erika gets into the Caribbean if conditions become favorable.

HOWEVER, THE FUTURE OF ERIKA IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK.
Quoting AllStar17:
Erika appears to be following the naked swirl towards the WSW. It may not be good if Erika gets into the Caribbean if conditions remain favorable.

HOWEVER, THE FUTURE OF ERIKA IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK.

i agree allstar
Quoting Elena85Vet:
McAfee just blocked a Trojan from this site.


Did you click on a link? I don't get anything by way of a warning and this machine is clean...on the other hnd, I haven;t clicked on any links that take me away fronm this site...I use my bookmarks to take me out
Quoting apocalyps2:
Could erika be a problem for the egyptian pyramides?




a tutcast?
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Tide Rollers? lol but yeah its ULM i work in the WRC


Well, yall did "Roll the Tide" year before last. I cherish that memory. ;)

My husband is from the Monroe area. Great school.
Quoting JupiterFL:


You might want to remove that post. Pretty sure the government can arrest you for posting things like that.


LOL. What do you have against Anew?
1175. JLPR
yep loks liek WU has a bug
my antivirus just blocked a trojan

and I only entered the blogs page
Quoting Drakoen:
Erika has dual closed low level circulations according to the surface observations and recon data. The naked one that has raced out will likely not be able to maintain itself.


Drak. Thanks you for all of your great observations. Are you going to college to study this full time when you graduate from HS?
Erika is extremely stubborn....not following her forecasts at all, even when she was 94L she did not.
Looks like Erika might have a date with the DR. The mountains would be the final act in her death.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


the naked swirl is NOT the true center

the NHC positions is the average between the two circulations, but to me it appears the one inside the convection is winning out.


Assuming you're right and that it is an average of positions...

That's the first time I'ver EVER seen them do that with a Vortex message.

Now with their discussions, or in their public advisory I've seen them hedge their direction of motion or CoC coordinates. Weird.
The blog is heating up and getting interesting now.
Quoting apocalyps2:
Could erika be a problem for the egyptian pyramides?


Amazing...they just let this guy create handle after handle, all the same as the last...
Quoting AllStar17:


HOWEVER, THE FUTURE OF ERIKA IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK.


Isn't that pretty much a given?
the naked swirl is like a pointer we can see direction she is taking, this is starting to worry me, what troublesome wench.....!
Quoting IKE:


In case nobody else responds, I'm not knowledgeable enough to answer your question.


Thanks Ike. Maybe no one knows but the NHC.
1185. Seastep
Floodman - I didn't click and it came up as detected.

And, I'm with you. I like McAfee enterprise and run our IT. Fairly lightweight and unobtrusive. Also, complete control over settings on all workstations. No issues at all.

Might be folks with personal versions.
JLPR, are you a paid member?
The HWRF is scary. It intensifies it.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Assuming you're right and that it is an average of positions...

That's the first time I'ver EVER seen them do that with a Vortex message.

Now with their discussions, or in their public advisory I've seen them hedge their direction of motion or CoC coordinates. Weird.


I have to admit..after watching hundreds of Vortex runs on Google earth.. this one was just not right... I don't think they actually hit it right on. They never even got down to a low wind.. or multiple directional airs.

Quoting masonsnana:

Amen to that!!

guess that may put us here in florida a little more on alert.. or at least make people pay attention.. any thoughts on steering patterns? they seem to be pretty weak still...
thanks,
dennis
1191. RJT185
Quoting cybergrump:
The HWRF is scary. It intensifies it.


How much?
What is the next trick Erika will pull out of the bag?
1193. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Amazing...they just let this guy create handle after handle, all the same as the last...


True. I've had multiple handles of his on ignore. I'll add the new one.
1194. Patrap
Someone asked me about the future of develop based on the highest winds not the center but cannot find the question but the answer is that it does not signify a developing system.
1196. Relix
Now she could miss Puerto Rico by going to the south? well that's something entirely different than 2 days ago with it passing 250 miles to the north lol.
Quoting Floodman:


Amazing...they just let this guy create handle after handle, all the same as the last...


Well at least he keeps the same name so we know who he is. Better than the one that changes her name and posts the same stupid questions over and over and over and over.
1198. NARCHER
recon finding strong winds east of center. think a new center could form in the ts east of current location?
Quoting Seastep:
Floodman - I didn't click and it came up as detected.

And, I'm with you. I like McAfee enterprise and run our IT. Fairly lightweight and unobtrusive. Also, complete control over settings on all workstations. No issues at all.

Might be folks with personal versions.


Odd...well, I suggest using a secondary program like Malwarebytes to double check the primary VS software...it catches registry errors as well

You;d be surprised how many IT folks are in here...glad to meetcha, by the way!
1200. Relix
For those getting viruses...

Firefox + AdBlockPlus works perfect. No warning here at all.
Quoting RJT185:


How much?

114-117 Knots right when it reaches the bahamas
1202. JLPR
nope im not a paid member

but I got all the ads blocked with AdBlock
so I dont know what happened
1203. amd
recon is now looking for the center of Erika near the 850 mb threshold.

I'll be interested to see the distance between the 850 mb center and the surface center
Quoting Weather456:
Someone asked me about the future of develop based on the highest winds not the center but cannot find the question but the answer is that it does not signify a developing system.


Ok thanks! I forgot I asked that lol
Quoting RJT185:


How much?
Quoting RJT185:


How much?


Cat 3....

Thus the extreme uncertainty in the entire forecast for Erika.......
Quoting NARCHER:
recon finding strong winds east of center. think a new center could form in the ts east of current location?

doubtful about that
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Assuming you're right and that it is an average of positions...

That's the first time I'ver EVER seen them do that with a Vortex message.

Now with their discussions, or in their public advisory I've seen them hedge their direction of motion or CoC coordinates. Weird.


FROM THE NHC

THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.
1209. RJT185
Quoting cybergrump:

114-117 Knots right when it reaches the bahamas


Thanks for the 411!
1210. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
nope im not a paid member

but I got all the ads blocked with AdBlock
so I dont know what happened


Well that's interesting XD!!!
Quoting JLPR:
nope im not a paid member

but I got all the ads blocked with AdBlock
so I dont know what happened


Adblock isn't 100% effective, especially if the script in question was written to exploit a security weakness...
1212. RJT185
yeah, uncertain, i'd say. very crazy system.
1213. JLPR
5.4 mph / 8.7 km/h / 2.4 m/s from the SSE

not that much wind from Guadeloupe =P
Erica needs to **@!! or get off the pot!!!
she is pissing everyone off including the NHC. No one has a clue what is going to happen to this system. Im tired of looking at her doing nothing for the last few days. I starting to think that she may just POOF go away.
Quoting cybergrump:

114-117 Knots right when it reaches the bahamas



Hey you never know. I can't think of one time she has done anything expected of her.
1217. Patrap
Quoting JLPR:
yep loks liek WU has a bug
my antivirus just blocked a trojan

and I only entered the blogs page


The Bug is Embedded in a Google Ad Banner..

Seems the WU IT folks cant review and scan the Ads,they just cash the checks and Load um up.
1218. JLPR
I see
The virus seems to save itself in the cache
so if you got a warning clear out your cache and do a scan =]
Quoting Patrap:


The Bug is Embedded in a Google Ad Banner..

Seems the WU IT folks cant review and scan the Ads,they just cash the checks and Load um u.


yup pretty sad that this site could care less about its members
Quoting IKE:


True. I've had multiple handles of his on ignore. I'll add the new one.


Wearing out my button, man!


Not what you see on a normal Vortex Run... no white markers at all.
Quoting apocalyps2:


Go into the carribbean,and explode on sunday.
My mean concern is to keep the egyptian pyramides safe.




Yeah..... well...I have a company that makes hurricane shutters just for the pyramides. But I require a 75% deposit up front.
1223. centex
I'm a paid member. Maybe some not getting it "message about it on access to any WU page" because there virsus software not detecting it.
It appears the naked swirl (appearing to NOT the center) is over Guadeloupe, thus the light winds, correct?
1225. Ossqss
I stopped a Trojan loader a few weeks back via windows defender. McAfee (enterprise) did not pick it up or the PWS:Win32/Daurso.A trojan, which has many names.
With the current motion of Erika the latest GFDL seems the most realistic model at this point.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not what you see on a normal Vortex Run... no white markers at all.


Please explain to me what that means, sorry about all the questions I am attempting to gain all the knowledge I can
can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...
Quoting AllStar17:
It appears the naked swirl (appearing to NOT the center) is over Guadeloupe, thus the light winds, correct?

yep
ecmwf is good this yr but with this storm its not following the rules so lets see what will happen
1232. Seastep
Floodman - nice to meet you to.

1233. usa777
Take a look at this link. Tell me if you think Erika is dying.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlir_loope.html
Slow down the loop and look at the last frame.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have to admit..after watching hundreds of Vortex runs on Google earth.. this one was just not right... I don't think they actually hit it right on. They never even got down to a low wind.. or multiple directional airs.



They ought to do at least one more center pass before leaving the storm. See what they post then. They're still finding strong southerly winds 30-40 knots at flight level east of the circulation.

Still a fairly interesting circulation on the TPW product as well. Seems like a due west motion should commence soon.

I hope the 2:00pm GFS model run is wrong! They have it shooting the gap and into the GOM.
you know the more i look at the RGBloop iam more convinced that the coc is now located to the sw of guadeloupe.
1237. Seastep
1200. Relix 2:58 PM EDT on September 02, 2009 Hide this comment.
For those getting viruses...

Firefox + AdBlockPlus works perfect. No warning here at all.

--- end quote ---

Using that setup also.

1. Paid member
2. Not clicking on anything
3. FF + Adblock plus

Still detected. Didn't get through, but detected in the browser cache and deleted.
Quoting RayRayfromLa:
I hope the 2:00pm GFS model run is wrong! They have it shooting the gap and into the GOM.


That my dear, could be bad
18Z surface missed as well, no peekie.

1240. Brillig
In the last 24 hours Erika seems to have gone almost due west, with quite a bit of confusion in the interim. I put the confusing part in a wide, transparent path, and the relatively obvious part in a thin, opaque path.
16°35'59.21
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


FROM THE NHC

THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.


Ok I can accept that. Not a true CoC reading then...
1242. IKE
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
you know the more i look at the RGBloop iam more convinced that the coc is now located to the sw of guadeloupe.


That's what I see too. I see no other spin.
Erika attempting a strong comeback this evening.Not as sheared from the SW to NE as earlier.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Ok I can accept that. Not a true CoC reading then...


Does this mean it will down graded @ 5
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:


Fred?? OMG this is gone to be a CV season.
Quoting apocalyps2:
If Erika should cross France it could mean trouble for the entire coest of england.
Especially now that erika has so much convention.
dude get a life!!!
I don't mean to be repeating myself....but I'm paranoid....

can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...
Quoting connie1976:
can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...


You getting a popup that says "Antivirus Pro has detected viruses on this computer, click here to remove them"?
Can anyone please tell me what do they think will happen to us here in Puerto Rico with Erika? TIA
Quoting Floodman:


Odd...well, I suggest using a secondary program like Malwarebytes to double check the primary VS software...it catches registry errors as well

You;d be surprised how many IT folks are in here...glad to meetcha, by the way!
Hearing about all these security related Windows OS workaround hoops you all have to jump through to have a secure machine makes me love my Linux OS all the more. There are ZERO linux viruses in the wild and the permissions structure stops malware cold while still on the doorstep.
Quoting antonio28:


Fred?? OMG this is gone to be a CV season.


What is CV?
1253. Ossqss
BTW, I would add on the virus item. I handed my laptop off to my helpdesk to ensure it was cleaned up properly, and they ran the malwarebytes program and blew it up. The heuristics and additional scan pulled up 6 files in security center and they proceeded, without paying attention to what they were doing, with removing them. Be careful. Thankfully, I ghost my drive regularly. Even the pros make mistakes. I hope he finds another job :)
I hate viruses. Every time one pops up on here it shuts down IE and I can't use it on this site until the virus is removed from here. IE works on everything else. I just use Firefox for here.
Don't know if its some security thing built in to IE or my computer but apparently it won't let me get it...So far.
Can't question the hurricane hunters.....they are in the storm....satellites and us are not.
1257. Brillig
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like Texas is saying, "Speak to the hand." (re post: 1194)
1258. JLPR
Does this mean it will down graded @ 5

im thinking we might have a depression but it could make a comeback tomorrow
Quoting connie1976:
I don't mean to be repeating myself....but I'm paranoid....

can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...


Yes you have a virus.
Quoting apocalyps2:
If Erika should cross France it could mean trouble for the entire coest of england.
Especially now that erika has so much convention.


Ok funny at first. Now it is getting old.... Please stop. Some of us on here really want to know, and learn about what is going on.
Quoting IKE:


That's what I see too. I see no other spin.

incorrect the coc is is in the convection not the naked swirl thats false even drakoen said that naked swirl wasn't the center
Cape Verde.
Quoting Seastep:
Floodman - nice to meet you to.



Your avatar...is that Meteor Crater in Arizona?
Quoting connie1976:
I don't mean to be repeating myself....but I'm paranoid....

can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...


You would know if you did. It cripples your computer with pop-up ads trying to sell you bogus anti-spyware and saying your computer is infected. If it is not a challenge to be here then most likely you do not have it.
Floodman,

no, so that's good, right? lol
Quoting TexasHurricane:


What is CV?


Cape Verde
"We think Erika will miss the islands."....Everybody and their grandma said it!! I luv these weak little piss ant storms. Got'em all fooled. Erika is running da show****
1268. JLPR
....interesting
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)

well to the SE of the center
Quoting connie1976:
Floodman,

no, so that's good, right? lol


lol
1270. ssmate
Quoting JupiterFL:


Yes you have a virus.


You could of softened up that tough news a little. lol.
Quoting IKE:


That's what I see too. I see no other spin.


And when that dies we'll be back to an open wave... The Eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for weak systems as the low level flow is funneled through and accelerates...making it quite difficult for circulations to close off.

However, with an open wave this vigorous, it'll be worth watching over the coming days...especially if it heads due west and stays south of the islands.
Quoting connie1976:
I don't mean to be repeating myself....but I'm paranoid....

can someone tell me how to tell if I picked up that virus someone said was here...I just ran my trend micro antivirus plus antispyware....but all that came up were cookies...


Connie I have to say too that I have run mine and only had a few bad cookies and nothing else... So if nothing came up then you should be ok.... Just becarful on what or who you click on....

Taco :0)
Quoting connie1976:
Floodman,

no, so that's good, right? lol


Exactly so...you have nothing to worry about for now...
BRB, getting a headache.. it might be a virus.
Flt Level Center is displaced 10 Nmi from Surface Center according to latest Vortex message update, what does that mean for Erika?
No matter where the center is, Erika will be WELL south of her next forecast point.

Be back in a few.
1277. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect the coc is is in the convection not the naked swirl thats false even drakoen said that naked swirl wasn't the center


Wrong. Center fix according to recon was at 16.6N and 60.8W. Convection is east of there. There's very little at 16.6N and 60.8W.
I got the same thing about two weeks ago - have avast and it took care of it completely. Had to shut down the program in the systems thingy (very technical term) and then run the virus checker in safe mode.
1279. jipmg
anybody have the radar form the islands
1281. WXHam


Just in case you haven't noticed ... busy week next week?
Quoting connie1976:
Floodman,

no, so that's good, right? lol


You sound fine to me. You would know if you had this particular virus. Just make sure you clear your history and cookies.
1283. Relix
Quoting AllStar17:
No matter where the center is, Erika will be WELL south of her next forecast point.

Be back in a few.

Will probably head to DR then.

See guys? My PR not getting hit forecast is almost true! XD!!!
Quoting antonio28:


Cape Verde


Thanks everyone. :)
1285. NARCHER
what a strange season you have a ts in the hurricane belt and have strong shear like were in july or nov. even the waves in e atl have fallen to the sear in the past week. am i correct?
1286. JLPR
lol just saw this on Google Earth with the HHs

Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.
xD
1287. WXHam
img src="Next Week" alt="" />
Quoting BoroDad17:
Flt Level Center is displaced 10 Nmi from Surface Center according to latest Vortex message update, what does that mean for Erika?


Same old same old. Still disorganized
Does anyone remember what service a member used last year to compare someones avatar with stock pictures used in advertising? Found out the blogger used some teen girls pix as his own? Tin something?
Anyone have Erika’s eulogy ready?
Recon is find west winds all the way to 58W as well, which is interesting
Quoting IKE:


Wrong. Center fix according to recon was at 16.6N and 60.8W. Convection is east of there. There's very little at 16.6N and 60.8W.

ok but the naked swirl is just to the west
1293. JLPR
getting more interesting =P

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)

well removed from the center
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect the coc is is in the convection not the naked swirl thats false even drakoen said that naked swirl wasn't the center
i totally disagree, i might go down in flames but i can take it the swirl or coc (claimed) under the convection is the false one look at the overall rotation on the loop and its plain as day.. man!!
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect the coc is is in the convection not the naked swirl thats false even drakoen said that naked swirl wasn't the center


Man you are boring!!!
Quoting Indialanticgirl:
Does anyone remember what service a member used last year to compare someones avatar with stock pictures used in advertising? Found out the blogger used some teen girls pix as his own? Tin something?


I was just wondering the same thing. I couldn't remember either.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i totally disagree, i might go down in flames but i can take it the swirl or coc (claimed) under the convection is the false one look at the overall rotation on the loop and its plain as day.. man!!


then why is the vortex message not on that circulation??
1298. IKE
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


And when that dies we'll be back to an open wave... The Eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for weak systems as the low level flow is funneled through and accelerates...making it quite difficult for circulations to close off.

However, with an open wave this vigorous, it'll be worth watching over the coming days...especially if it heads due west and stays south of the islands.


Yeah, I'll be watching it too.

Guadeloupe airport recent reading....

"
Le Raizet Airport, GP (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 15 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 4800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 23000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"


Hmmm...winds are now SSE. Center should now be west of there. Naked swirl appears to be at 16.0N and 62.0W as of 1845UTC.

Airport at 16.3N and 61.5W.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Recon is find west winds all the way to 58W as well, which is interesting

what does that tell you
1301. Dakster
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I hate viruses. Every time one pops up on here it shuts down IE and I can't use it on this site until the virus is removed from here. IE works on everything else. I just use Firefox for here.
Don't know if its some security thing built in to IE or my computer but apparently it won't let me get it...So far.


That is a characteristic of the virus, it won't let you use IE. It hasn't attacked FireFox....Yet.
Quoting btwntx08:

what does that tell you


there is more than one circulation
Good Afternoon everyone! Looks like Erika is getting ready for DMIN to pull her usual, "I'm gonna blow up"!! She's actually beginning to look like a TS!! Comments??
Quoting Brillig:


Looks like Texas is saying, "Speak to the hand." (re post: 1194)


Lol. Would be fine with me if that "hand" stayed right where it is at least til December. :)
. tropicofcancer 7:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect the coc is is in the convection not the naked swirl thats false even drakoen said that naked swirl wasn't the center


Man you are boring!!!

boring huh well well well u will be place with a empty space goodbye
The naked swirl will be irrlevant soon IMO, the real circulation will be back by 59W
I have been on here learning and lurking for years and I swear people on here are losing their minds, literally. they have gone off the deep end
wow..
1310. IKE
Quoting NARCHER:
what a strange season you have a ts in the hurricane belt and have strong shear like were in july or nov. even the waves in e atl have fallen to the sear in the past week. am i correct?


So far...yes.
McAfee tells me it blocked and removed a Trojan since I was here about 4 1/2 hours ago.
Quoting btwntx08:

what does that tell you



Tells me there is a broad center of circulation with llc swirling around in a broader center.... as the NHC has stated.
1313. Relix
Quoting robinvtx1215:
I have been on here learning and lurking for years and I swear people on here are losing their minds, literally. they have gone off the deep end


Erika does that. =P
1314. Patrap
Ive recieved some mail in regards to My feelings as to Presidents Bush Failure to Land here 4 Years ago today as many were still being pulled from the Katrina FLoodwater's here.

I personally watched him Orbit and sail off to the Neast 4 years ago..and that moment was the Lowest in my 45 years at that time.

Here is my Response in Kind as to How a Real President Handled the same Situation 40 years ago.

Some may find the scenes and words,er,
"Vary" interesting...and very ironic.

Hurricane Betsy, LBJ and the Dixiecrats: The Politics of New Orleans Flooding

Patrick
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
The naked swirl will be irrlevant soon IMO, the real circulation will be back by 59W

well then that means the coc could under convection
Why does the National Weather Srvice have ericka dying out over the weekend into next week??
Glad I don't have a job tied to this storm and can walk away from time to time, lol.

This would drive me nuts, I'd be praying for the end of my shift.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
The naked swirl will be irrlevant soon IMO, the real circulation will be back by 59W


According to Dr. Masters, it's a fake swirl lol. I see Erika pushing through some 20-30 knots of wind shear tomorrow but then heads for another Anticyclone near the Bahamas, and strengthens. Flat out prediction right there.. We just don't really know what's gonna happen.
Quoting IKE:


So far...yes.


El Niño and the fact that this summer has been unseasonably cool. So in conclusion it is global warming and people driving SUVs fault. :o)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Glad I don't have a job tied to this storm and can walk away from time to time, lol.

This would drive me nuts, I'd be praying for the end of my shift.
AMEN!
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


El Niño and the fact that this summer has been unseasonably cool. So in conclusion it is global warming and people driving SUVs fault. :o)


lol.....
The old clear to see LLC is at 16N/62W at present, looking more vigorous too I might add, the other possible competing COC looks to be at 15.3N/59.8W, jmo. We'll have go by what the HHs say they know what their doing, plus they have the advantage of surveying the whole area.
1323. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


Yeah, I'll be watching it too.

Guadeloupe airport recent reading....

"
Le Raizet Airport, GP (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 15 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 4800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 23000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"


Hmmm...winds are now SSE. Center should now be west of there. Naked swirl appears to be at 16.0N and 62.0W as of 1845UTC.

Airport at 16.3N and 61.5W.


but the hunters are reporting WEST WINDS at 58W
Ladies and Gentlemans, Erika has become so difficult to forecast; that I'm beginning to believe that our only hope for an accurate forecast will have to come from JFV/WS. What do you guys think?
Another Newbie question, but I noticed some convection flaring up in the latest RGB frames on the naked swirl that is a false center... I do still see the circulation in the main convection as well. What are the chances of Erika spawning a second TC?
I am not at all shocked as to what is happening with TS Erika. Her chances were blown when she did not develop three days ago. Most on this blog tend to take the doomsday scenario... and it is annoying. Storm tracking and prediction is not about feeding into your passions and hoping for whatever it is you want, instead, it is about thinking in terms of patterns and with the facts. For TS Erika, she is more likely to die than to intensify. That is a fact. Look at her exposed coc, and the numbers, with the level of shear being the most indicative. She has little chances for survival, and i expect this thing to die off before she becomes a threat to CONUS. Expect her to dissipate... and expect all eyes getting focused with the wave currently coming out of Africa after Erika's death becomes indisputable.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
The naked swirl will be irrlevant soon IMO, the real circulation will be back by 59W


AGREED
IKE, is it me or has most every one lost it!!
With competing circulations the dry air and shear are doing their best to turn this into an open gale.
coc is relocating underneath that convection cause lots of west winds in there
indiatlanticgirl, you have mail... new blog up
Quoting Dakster:


That is a characteristic of the virus, it won't let you use IE. It hasn't attacked FireFox....Yet.


Oh. Ok. Thanks. I'll check for it then. Hubby got something other night kept restarting his computer over and over. We got it fixed but now his Toshiba thinks its a Dell. Lol.
seminolesfan, you have mail!

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Would be fine with me if that "hand" stayed right where it is at least til December. :)


yeah, but wonder if it is waiting for something to get there and then we will be like, where's the Texas hand.....
Lesser Antillies Radar... http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

you can see a coc west of the islands when you animate it...
1336. SQUAWK
Hey kids, guess what??

NEW BLOG!!!
NEW BLOG!!!
NEW BLOG!!!
NEW BLOG!!!
1337. Seastep
1263. Floodman 3:15 PM EDT on September 02, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting Seastep:
Floodman - nice to meet you to.



Your avatar...is that Meteor Crater in Arizona?

-- end quote --

Nope. When I first uploaded it last year, it was slow and we played "guess the avatar."

No one has been able to guess it so far.

Interesting that recon climbed up to 5K feet from 1300. Must be pretty rough out there.
1338. Becca36
Quoting justalurker:


bye bye..see you in 95 hrs

Please don't quote the bad comments. TY
Quoting Seastep:
1263. Floodman 3:15 PM EDT on September 02, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting Seastep:
Floodman - nice to meet you to.



Your avatar...is that Meteor Crater in Arizona?

-- end quote --

Nope. When I first uploaded it last year, it was slow and we played "guess the avatar."

No one has been able to guess it so far.

Interesting that recon climbed up to 5K feet from 1300. Must be pretty rough out there.


Footage from the Mars rover?
Been keeping an eye on and analyzing the Hurricane Hunter Recon data and it appears that we will very likely see a rather dramatic relocation with Tropical Storm Erika's center. With the data still showing SSW winds at around 15N and 58W, it appears that the circulation center exists underneath the convection.
Quoting whitewabit:
Lesser Antillies Radar... http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

you can see a coc west of the islands when you animate it...

false coc also hh's finding west winds at 58-59 w means the coc could be there
new blog!!!!!
theres is no such thing as a false COC !!!
If the naked center was false, wouldn't it be rotating around the real center instead of stalling? IMO the naked swirl is the LLC. The storm is tilted and maybe fixing to decouple.
Quoting whitewabit:
theres is no such thing as a false COC !!!

well if u look at the top of the blog dr. masters show and image xhowing the false go take a look anyways im headed to the new blog
1346. IKE
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
IKE, is it me or has most every one lost it!!


On this blog? I think about 5% never had it. And I'm not saying that pertains to anyone on here now, specifically. Heck, I may not have it.

I looked at some buoys east of Guadeloupe and most of them don't report winds, BP, etc.

Here's one at 14.6N and 56.2W and they haven't reported west winds in the last 24 hours! Granted Erika is/was, NW of there, but they should have had west winds at some point!

Unless the circulation is just so small, but that buoy wasn't over 100 miles from where Erika's center was at.
ike go to the new blog
18Z BAM models are now even futher south and west....
1349. goavs4
Quoting Floodman:


Footage from the Mars rover?


Actually it is, Victoria crater as imaged by the rover Opportunity
Quoting IKE:


On this blog? I think about 5% never had it. And I'm not saying that pertains to anyone on here now, specifically. Heck, I may not have it.

I looked at some buoys east of Guadeloupe and most of them don't report winds, BP, etc.

Here's one at 14.6N and 56.2W and they haven't reported west winds in the last 24 hours! Granted Erika is/was, NW of there, but they should have had west winds at some point!

Unless the circulation is just so small, but that buoy wasn't over 100 miles from where Erika's center was at.
mmmmmmmm...!!
Quoting JLPR:
Does this mean it will down graded @ 5

im thinking we might have a depression but it could make a comeback tomorrow

As long as we have winds >39mph and a closed low of some kind (even if relatively broad with multiple voticies present) it will still be classed as a TS.
1352. NARCHER
keep us informed............
1353. stormno
AT 5PM ERICKA WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT CONTINUES TO GET TORN APART BY THE SHEAR...ERICKA LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING MY TERMONOLOGY YOU CAN PUT A FORK IN HER SHE IS VERY WELL DONE..RECON SHOULD CANCEL THERE FLIGHT JUST A WASTE IN TAXPAYERS MONEY..LAND STATIONS ARE ONLY REPORTING WINDS OF 15MPH AND THATS GENEROUS..LONG LIVE QUEEN ERIKA...Stormno
1354. NARCHER
cchs what do you make of recon data?
looks like a new center is forming close to the stronger ts?
Erika is still headed southwest.
Be careful on this website. McAfee is continually having to block and remove a trojan.
1357. hydrus
Quoting RJT185:


How much?
Rem
Quoting cybergrump:
The HWRF is scary. It intensifies it.
The HWRF is not good at predicting intensity.
1355. cirrocumulus "Erika is still headed southwest"

Advisory 1 to 1a
21GMT 09/01/09 17.2N 57.3W
00GMT 09/02/09 17.2N 57.3W
0north to 0south ... Stationary

Advisory 1a to 2
00GMT 09/02/09 17.2N 57.3W
03GMT 09/02/09 17.5N 57.6W
3north to 3west ... InvTan(3/3/cos17.5) = 46.357degrees north of W
heading 1.357degrees north of NW

Advisory 2 to 2a
03GMT 09/02/09 17.5N 57.6W
06GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 58.7W
5south to 11west ... InvTan(5/11/cos17) = 25.42degrees south of W
heading 2.92degrees south of WSW

Advisory 2a to 3
06GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 58.7W
09GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 59.0W
0north to 3west ... due West

Advisory 3 to 3a
09GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 59.0W
12GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 59.5W
5south to 5west ... InvTan(5/5/cos16.5) = 46.2degrees south of W
heading 1.2degrees south of SW

Advisory 3a to 4
12GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 59.5W
15GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 60.4W
0north to 9west ... heading due West

Advisory 4 to 4a
15GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 60.4W
18GMT 09/02/09 16.2N 61.1W
3south to 7west ... InvTan(3/7/cos16.2) = 24.05degrees south of W
heading 1.55degrees south of WSW

Advisory 4a to 5
18GMT 09/02/09 16.2N 61.1W
21GMT 09/02/09 16.4N 61.7W
2north to 6west ... InvTan(2/6/cos16.4) = 19.16degrees north of W
heading 3.34degrees west of WNW

Still jitterbugging through LARGE changes in its heading... ?mostly center relocations?
looks like a new center is developing just east of the northern leewards.... slightly north and east (17.7N 60.5W) of the official one.
1360. Brillig
I have an idea for visualizing the storm center. Take HH data and plot lines perpendicular to the normal flags. Make the length of the lines be proportional to the wind speed. The result will look something like this. The lines all point to the center of circulation.
Storm Center Visualization

Multiple centers and insignificant vortexes should be evident this way.
Am I correct in that this blocked false trojan experienced today is also responsible for blocking the scripting on this blog? I can't quote or show a hidden post.