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Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.


Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters
Backing Down
Backing Down
Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.
getting out
getting out
This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3501. surfmom
Quoting Xandtar:
Here on Dominica our leaders continue to believe what the models say rather than what the actual tracking is showing... if not a direct hit, a very, very near miss.

Ugh.


Don't be a Sheeple..... use YOUR EYES AND EARS!
Quoting surfmom:


Don't be a Sheeple..... use YOUR EYES AND EARS!


and what's in between those ears! :)

good point!
Quoting leftyy420:


Yup. I am never gone. Always lurking.


Good Morning Leftty it has been a long time for sure.... I too in Lurking mood....

Taco :0)
3505. Dakster
The sat loops have been flaky at best this morning. Sometimes they are working for me and other times they don't. Maybe server overload?
3506. jbryant
Hey Destin, how come those maps are dated 09/09/08?
3507. CapnK
Quoting BayouBorn1965:
Dear Presslord, If you ever ride and live through a hurricane, like KATRINA, you will be jacked up about the season! It's called human nature! Biloxi, Mississippi


Bayou -

Press is like me - among many other storms, a Hugo veteran/survivor.

Hugo happened a while back, you probably didn't pay much attention, it didn't get media 'coverage' quite like Katrina did. Check the numbers though.
3508. shfr173
does anyone have a current fix on what there calling the center?
Here's a great look at the visible imagery of the old and new COC.

Quoting jbryant:
Hey Destin, how come those maps are dated 09/09/08?


that actually represents 09/08/09 its the way it is written it means sept 8th 2009
3511. surfmom
Quoting presslord:


Dear Bayou...you have no clue what I've lived through...


YEA, You are one heck of an old crusty sailor....
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Oh yeah, Tx is fine with this one.
In the Galveston area, just took the kids to school It's a lot cooler this morning (70 degrees) compared to the 84 degrees all summer. Seems to be not as humid, also.
Be prepared to pull your hair out on this one.Models have it going in different directions.Some want to intensify it to a Cat 3.While others want to keep it a strong tropical storm five days out.Any one's guess is as good as mine at this point.

Ericka is going to require some "real time" forecasting as opposed to a heavy reliance on computers that are all over the place as far as direction and strength.
3514. surfmom
#3509 - Vegas - Nice Pic. thx!
Quoting connie1976:
hurricanejunky,

Not just here...everywhere!!


I understood you! Back to Ericka, I've had my doubts about her going North, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
3516. shfr173
it does appear to have thunderstorms building around new center
Quoting DestinJeff:
CMC at +144 .... ouch:



CMC is supposed to be good this year on developed storms.

Erika = Witchy Woman
3518. sctonya
Quoting CapnK:


Bayou -

Press is like me - among many other storms, a Hugo veteran/survivor.

Hugo happened a while back, you probably didn't pay much attention, it didn't get media 'coverage' quite like Katrina did. Check the numbers though.


I survived HUGO...still have the shirt around here somewhere!
Quoting NortheastGuy:
Be prepared to pull your hair out on this one.Models have it going in different directions.Some want to intensify it to a Cat 3.While others want to keep it a strong tropical storm five days out.Any one's guess is as good as mine at this point.

Ericka is going to require some "real time" forecasting as opposed to a heavy reliance on computers that are all over the place as far as direction and strength.


I have noticed this myself...
Quoting jbryant:
Hey Destin, how come those maps are dated 09/09/08?


its month/year/date
One little exposed spinner (LLC) appears to be just to the NE of Guadeloupe, while there may be another spinner or two within the area of heavier convection.

Erika still apears to be disorganized, yet with such heavy convection, a dominant center may eventually materialize. With its sidestep to the south last night, the chances of Erika becoming a sea (fish) storm seems to be growing more remote.


So what now? I am just continuing to toss these solutions out the window until the storm gets is act together. Only then will the models start producing higher confidence solutions.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Erika looks like a fuzz ball.


So does my dog!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
In the Galveston area, just took the kids to school It's a lot cooler this morning (70 degrees) compared to the 84 degrees all summer. Seems to be not as humid, also.


this is why!

3526. jbryant
TY, I was confused. Thought maybe I was looking at one yr old stuff.
3527. CapnK
Quoting StormHunter89:


I believe it was last year


The Joker (Fay):

This blog, Aug 14 last year
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


So does my dog!



lol
Quoting DellOperator:


So what now? I am just continuing to toss these solutions out the window until the storm gets is act together. Only then will the models start producing higher confidence solutions.


3531. shfr173
My local channel in Tampa predicting a tropical low to form in GOM and move towards TX. If this happens what effect if any will it have on Erika?
3532. 7544
Quoting DestinJeff:
CMC at +144 .... ouch:




CMC is supposed to be good this year on developed storms.

Erika = Witchy Woman
there must be a hot spot in bahmmas cause all theree modeles show her rapid itensify when and if she reaches there she makes it there weak but then pow im not getting why

gfdl
hawrf
cmc
Quoting CapnK:


Bayou -

Press is like me - among many other storms, a Hugo veteran/survivor.

Hugo happened a while back, you probably didn't pay much attention, it didn't get media 'coverage' quite like Katrina did. Check the numbers though.


Actually remember that 1989 storm very vividly! Had many friends that went to your neck of the woods to help you build back. I've been thinking about how it's been 20 years since y'all have been hit, and I'm sure you have been thinking that too!
could the reason why the models are going all crazy is because this system won't ever develope into anything? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just learning)
Paggie, some reason I can't quote you. Sure wished it had blown the mosquitoes out of here. They've been horrendous down here in G county.
3536. Brillig
Quoting VegasRain:
Here's a great look at the visible imagery of the old and new COC.



I don't think I've ever seen a center where you've marked Old Center.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Paggie, some reason I can't quote you. Sure wished it had blown the mosquitoes out of here. They've been horrendous down here in G county.


that's weird...we haven't really had any mosquito problems up here. well, you can have heat and humidity or dry air and mosquitos....pick your poison! LOL
Quoting surfmom:


YEA, You are one heck of an old crusty sailor....


Bayou,
I would suggest lurking for a while before making a comment about Press.


Okay, now I got the image to insert. Sorry for the repeat.

history show this may be a GOM storm
Maybe I need to adjust my glasses, but I see Ericka moving SW. Is this some sort of flareup causing this effect or are the models going crazy?
I actually live in Hitchcock. A lot of the mosquito's down here come from the salt marshes. Very aggressive little things.
3545. divdog
Quoting ChannelRat:
i hope my ignore button works
3541. LOL...I wouldn't know. the corporate firewall has blocked both attempts!
Once again a system that has confused the Models and proven to us that we must keep an all round watch regardless of what the Models indicate.

Please do not take this in the wrong way - but sometimes a "small fright" can jolt the complacency out of people who live and work in places where they should, in all truth, certainly know better.

IMHO - despite IVAN & PALOMA there are, in the Cayman islands, for instance, more than a few people who have lulled themselves back into quiet complacency again due to the local regioanl inactivity this Season (to date that is!!)

Some previous Blog Entries indicate that it may be a "mindset" that is wide spread!

Meanwhile - back to TS ERIKA gazing and, I for one, will not trust it until, selfishly, the Caribbean is in the clear .
69Viking,
Thank you! I sometimes don't think about what I am typing...same with what I am saying...I didn't mean to cause trouble... :( Please forgive everyone...
Quoting surfmom:


Don't be a Sheeple..... use YOUR EYES AND EARS!
LOL, what is a sheeple? I mean think I know what one is but I'd love to hear your definition. BTW, did you check out all the pics from Hurricane Bill on Surfline? Nice pics!! I surfed Ft. Pierce and it was going off Saturday morning and I heard Sattelite Beach was firing too!
3544. yeah, i work in Freeport. we have had to deal with them down here, but they are noticeably absent in Pearland!
Quoting shfr173:
My local channel in Tampa predicting a tropical low to form in GOM and move towards TX. If this happens what effect if any will it have on Erika?


Yeah I think New Orleans said that yesterday. A few others. Everyone but Texas. Local mets are the same everywhere I guess. :) I haven't look to them for tropical information since Humberto. Lol. Somebody coulda seen that coming!
3554. KBH
what are the odds of someone getting shocked when surfing the net during a thunderstorm?
Morning gang...so our little girl Erika is being wishy washy eh?
Quoting 69Viking:


She already apologized but I guess you just want to attack people and YOU'RE the one that won't let it go. Talk about weather yourself. Try to figure out why Ericka is going West against the forecast track and make yourself useful rather than just attacking people who have already apologized.




Very well said....I have a quick question. A lot of you seem to really know what you are talking about, others seem to be on the same page as me. So for those of you who know your stuff, what do you think the chances are of a hit on the Keys. Also has this storm, or in your opinion will this storm pass through "the box"? Sorry I am a newbie and trying to learn all I can!
3558. Relix
I could even say that Erika will go south of PR now. Totally different from "200 miles to the north so loong Erika!". Now it can sneak up on us down the south. It's possible and puts PR in a bad position, even moreso the islands ahead of us. Be safe everyone =(
Thanks Storm!! :)
Quoting 7544:
Quoting DestinJeff:
CMC at +144 .... ouch:




CMC is supposed to be good this year on developed storms.

Erika = Witchy Woman
there must be a hot spot in bahmmas cause all theree modeles show her rapid itensify when and if she reaches there she makes it there weak but then pow im not getting why

gfdl
hawrf
cmc


HOT TUB.
It's what I was trying to tell Adrian in his ranting yesterday.
Quoting superweatherman:

history show this may be a GOM storm


so that increases the 50% chance of getting ground swell from Erika by umm.. just about 0%?

wax on. wax off. wax on. wax off.
Quoting connie1976:
could the reason why the models are going all crazy is because this system won't ever develope into anything? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just learning)


There is no such thing as a stupid question....
But as for this storm from what I'm seeing is the models have a hard time on a storm that has not yet got its ack together.... But as I say that they had a hard time with "Ike" last year too....

Taco :0)
3564. KBH
Quoting KBH:
what are the odds of someone getting shocked when surfing the net during a thunderstorm?
, it does happen, dot a stinging sensation in the hand during some lightning activity this morning!
3560. I second that.
Quoting KBH:
what are the odds of someone getting shocked when surfing the net during a thunderstorm?


Wireless? Zero Plugged in? close to zero :)
Quoting KBH:
what are the odds of someone getting shocked when surfing the net during a thunderstorm?


Slim, but the changes of your computer getting FRIED are about 90% I would disconnect and shut down the computer if you can.
I expect the NHC cone to move a little south and west at 11am...
Way too early to predict but I am still thinking IKE situation here..
Thank you StormW you beat me to it >>>> LOL

and Good Morning

Taco :0)
Connie - I used to feel the same way. There are no stupid questions. A lot of the regulars on here are always happy to answer when they can. :)
3571. CapnK
sctonya - wow, neat and scary avatar pic you have there. :)

BB'65 - Yep, it was a big and bad 'un. It was very good that it nudged just N of Chas, or lots more loss would have happened. Re: recovery efforts, Press is the one to talk to about *that*. I don't know the totality of what he helped with/organized/did for Katrina vics, but it was huge, and _very_ selfless.
Looks like Erika will definately miss the next forecast point to the left.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


CMC is supposed to be good this year on developed storms. Huh?

Erika = tWitchy Woman
Quoting keys33070:




Very well said....I have a quick question. A lot of you seem to really know what you are talking about, others seem to be on the same page as me. So for those of you who know your stuff, what do you think the chances are of a hit on the Keys. Also has this storm, or in your opinion will this storm pass through "the box"? Sorry I am a newbie and trying to learn all I can!


I don't think the Keys are out of the woods by any means. This storm is not following the forecast track so it's one that everyone in it's possible path should keep an eye on. The good thing is it's not currently strengthening!
3576. surfmom
Quoting NortheastGuy:
Be prepared to pull your hair out on this one.Models have it going in different directions.Some want to intensify it to a Cat 3.While others want to keep it a strong tropical storm five days out.Any one's guess is as good as mine at this point.

Ericka is going to require some "real time" forecasting as opposed to a heavy reliance on computers that are all over the place as far as direction and strength.


which is probably why Kman, for example , called this correctly so far... he's far more Real Time.

I think that nature being as Wiley as it is, shows us techno is a good, helpful tool -- but a computer is a machine and weather is not......

there is still the art of understanding weather - a talent/gift that some possess --occasionally we get Hurricanes that point this out, and humble those who rely on the computers.

Humans have the gift of instinct - computers NOT
3578. P451
Erika - 48 hours.

3487 MahFL "Surfmom...which part of CA is getting soaked?"

Baja California Sur

3483 jpsb "...the trof over the east coast is still looking very impressive. Erika will have a hard time getting past that one. I think the GoM (Texas) will be OK."
3488 FLWeatherFreak91 "Oh yeah, Tx is fine with this one."

Not exactly; southern Texas is facing a major firestorm season if the tropical storm season doesn't drench the ground first.
Could someone please explain the difference between the early cycle models and the late cycle models - or give me a link where I can go read it myself? Thank you!
Quoting keys33070:




Very well said....I have a quick question. A lot of you seem to really know what you are talking about, others seem to be on the same page as me. So for those of you who know your stuff, what do you think the chances are of a hit on the Keys. Also has this storm, or in your opinion will this storm pass through "the box"? Sorry I am a newbie and trying to learn all I can!




Yes
Quoting StormW:


Good morning.

Good morning Storm! Have the cot and extra coffee pot ready yet?
Quoting naynaysnanny:



g/m Kman.....you did call this very early on going into the Carribean!!!!
I know it's way early, but do you see this entering the GOM at all? I'm only asking because vacation is next week and just trying to prep to know if we have any worries with this one....
thanks!


Can't stay on but would offer this on track. Erika may move somewhat erratically for a while during this reorganization of the center.

Steering looks to be weak at this time and a meandering crawl into the Eastern Caribbean is a possibility.

After that two possible scenarios I see. The first is a resumption of the WNW motion. There is a digging ULL to the NW that may cause this but whether it will come far enough S remains to be seen.

The second is that the ridge builds back in to the N of the Bahamas as some of the models were forecasting yesterday if I recall a few posts from StormW correctly.

If that happens further West would be the short term motion perhaps as far W as the DR.

Given the history of Erika it would be unwise to try and determine where it is going based upon what we see out there now. Let things settle for a bit over the next 12 hours. If it reorganizes quickly then more N would be on the cards from tonight.

Have to run.
Quoting SSideBrac:
in the Cayman islands, for instance, more than a few people who have lulled themselves back into quiet complacency again due to the local regioanl inactivity this Season


Well at least the Floridians are ALWAYS paranoid regardless of which direction the models point. (just teasing). good morning all
Quoting superweatherman:

history show this may be a GOM storm


Looks like Florida would be safe according to that graphic!
3578. P451 1:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Look at the Wobble!
Almost looks to have a WSW motion at the end.
Quoting P451:
Erika - 48 hours.



Thanks for that... crazy to see how much she shifted south in the night.
Quoting connie1976:
69Viking,
Thank you! I sometimes don't think about what I am typing...same with what I am saying...I didn't mean to cause trouble... :( Please forgive everyone...


No problem! I honestly don't think you need to apologize but you did the right thing!
And through the Hebert box she goes!
3590. KBH
plugged in! fingers still feeling numb
3591. P451
Quoting BioWeather:


Looks like Florida would be safe according to that graphic!


Way too early to predict that...watch out for the Hebert box and if it goes through there. Florida better pay attention.
this is crazy
how many storms are we gunna have this year with more then 1 COC
3594. centex
They need to move floater
I have to take my 3 year old out to play...I can't wait to come back later and see what the models say about this storm...lol...
Quoting Chiggy007:
06Z GFS and BAM suite models take Erika directly WEST!!
BAM models have performed quite well with ERIKA...


I thought BAM models, in general, do well with ill-formed storms, like Erika?
Im not sure what the odds are, but I have been shocked during a thunderstorm while on the computer. A lightning strike ran thru the lines down our street, lost a tv, a circuit breaker, and I had a red dot on my finger where the mouse got me. haha No human alive has ever thrown a mouse away faster!
LOL...Good point...I have family down there and they've been calling me for the past 3 days wanting to know what i think...
3600. KBH
at least someone agrees with me. Some major rains and TS activity this morning in B'dos, I am not sure of this thing developing and going north.
3601. juniort
the southward drift is still happening...any thought on this?
Quoting StormW:


Connie, do me a favor...quit beating yourself up...nothing to be forgiven for!


Thanks for being such a nice person! I look for your comments every day. Thanks for giving us the info that we need since we do not get it from our local media!
3583. Thank you Kman!
Quoting ChannelRat:
I hope Erika becomes a cat 5 and blows NOLA away!


be better if it blows you and all the other trolls away.
3605. centex
It's going back to 15N
3606. BDADUDE
Quoting southernstorm:
Im not sure what the odds are, but I have been shocked during a thunderstorm while on the computer. A lightning strike ran thru the lines down our street, lost a tv, a circuit breaker, and I had a red dot on my finger where the mouse got me. haha No human alive has ever thrown a mouse away faster!

It must have been a wireless mouse.
LOL...Dangit...That sucks...
It likes 15N.
3609. Dakster
Sometimes I'm shocked by what I read on the internet, but I've never noticed whether it was thunderstorming outside or not...

Maybe Erika will just disspate and become nothing... Then we won't have to worry about where she goes and who gets smacked by her.
#3540:
I won't quote you due to the ignorance of your statement. Though, I will put you on ignore and hope you get banned for even making that suggestion!
3611. Brillig
Anyone notice the winds are in the opposite direction between St. Croix and St. John's between the start and ending of the HH run? Looks like the circulation on the west side may be finally getting organized.
Quoting Brillig:


I don't think I've ever seen a center where you've marked Old Center.


It certainly wasn't marked as such in the NHC advisories, but it's there on Radar and Satellite. It looks to have run ahead of the convection to the East. So my assumption is that this was the Old Center of Circulation or some vortex that outran the main convection. It looks like a new center is trying to form about 140 miles or so East of Guadalupe.

To me it appears that during the night the NHC lost track of the center which ended up moving quickly WSW and became exposed. That's just a guess..
So....what exactly is Erika doing at this point? stalling, moving west? Hard to tell from the sat images.

Area around 9n/43w looks like it could have a closed circulation, some gusty winds and convection is firing in the area on Satelite.
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!

Only this time, I moved...and didn't tell Cantore!

Good man!
3617. surfmom
Quoting OnTheFlats:
LOL, what is a sheeple? I mean think I know what one is but I'd love to hear your definition. BTW, did you check out all the pics from Hurricane Bill on Surfline? Nice pics!! I surfed Ft. Pierce and it was going off Saturday morning and I heard Sattelite Beach was firing too!


Sheeple are people who behave in the manner of a flock of sheep. they have no mind of their own and will follow the flock off the side of a cliff --if that's what they are being told.

Always question Authority.
are you a Ft. P local? - my son went over for Bill and for Danny (I'm a gulfster)
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Slim, but the changes of your computer getting FRIED are about 90% I would disconnect and shut down the computer if you can.


Had to jump in here. As an electrician I'm somewhat qualified to give a correct answer. If you're concerned about lightning (and if you live in Florida - the lightning capital of the world - there's good reason to be), then consider installing lightning protection at your main electrical panel. It's relatively cheap (around $100 plus labor) and quick to install. Work should be done by a qualified electrician. Also note that surge protection (from plug strips or a UPS) will not protect against lightning strikes. Those devices are designed to protect you from your utility company. Hope this helps...
3619. Dakster
Hey Stormw - I just found out Cantore is planning on doing a special live broadcast from the Ft. Meyer's area. Are you planning on attending?
Quoting connie1976:
I have to take my 3 year old out to play...I can't wait to come back later and see what the models say about this storm...lol...


Have a great day and we'll se you later today

Taco :0)
3621. Brillig
Quoting VegasRain:


It certainly wasn't marked as such in the NHC advisories, but it's there on Radar and Satellite. It looks to have run ahead of the convection to the East. So my assumption is that this was the Old Center of Circulation or some vortex that outran the main convection. It looks like a new center is trying to form about 140 miles or so East of Guadalupe.

To me it appears that during the night the NHC lost track of the center which ended up moving quickly WSW and became exposed. That's just a guess..


Well, yes, there is an "it" there, but I wouldn't call it the center of circulation. That looks like a peripheral eddy to me.
3622. jpsb
Quoting bocahurricane:
Actually I don't have major issues I just can't stand ignorance when it comes to religion and bringing up such ignorance in a forum such as this is not appropriate. I am not trying to start an arguement but felt I needed to say something. See ya later, I have to head out for the day...good luck to those in the islands today hope the weather isn' too bad
Quoting connie1976:
could the reason why the models are going all crazy is because this system won't ever develope into anything? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just learning)


I am a rookie too, lol, but maybe I can help. And if I get it wrong hopefully an expert can correct me.

Ericka does not have a well defined low level center of circulation. To be a real storm Erika needs three circulations. One at the surface, one at midlevel and one in the upper atmosphere. That allows the warm moist air to go all the way up (and out) of the storm and gives the storm energy.

It also allows upper level steering currents to steer the storm. Since Erika does not have that she is being steered by lower level steering and the lower level steering is to the west or south west. Until Erika becomes a real storm the models will have a dificult time with her.

I hope that is correct and I hope that helps.

jim
3623. Dakster
I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment?
Still dead calm up in the middle of Dominica. The sun has been with us for the last few hours & it is extremly humid. Can't report on wind direction as there is no cloud movement to go by.
My office in Barbados has recorded over 2" of rain already.
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!

Only this time, I moved...and didn't tell Cantore!


LOL but just to let you know he will find you....
Here's a good question for those who really know their stuff.

On the radar, and visual images, you can see a low level circulation, and it's moving WSW. If this is Erika's LLC (I think it is) then Erika is definately moving WSW for the moment.

However, what if that is no longer the LLC and a new one has formed under the convection, which the low level swirl seen on visual is now rotating around, giving the appearance of the WSW movement?? Is this at all possible?
looks like SW movement in last 12 hours here:

Erika going SW
Quoting BioWeather:
Could someone please explain the difference between the early cycle models and the late cycle models - or give me a link where I can go read it myself? Thank you!


Link

It's all in the crunch time the computers take to plot solutions.
Quoting superweatherman:

history show this may be a GOM storm


Everybody always forgets this lady when posting that graphic. Yes, yes, I know, that'll never happen. Nobody knows where Erika's going. I'm freaking out, etc. etc. etc.
Did I forget any? ;) Just posting it on the " If you forget about history you're doomed to repeat it." premise. OR As Bill Murray said in What About Bob, " If I pretend it happens maybe it won't." Lol. Peace. :)

3630. jpsb
Quoting StormW:


Connie, do me a favor...quit beating yourself up...nothing to be forgiven for!


yeah, what he said. You're fine, the other poster? Not so much.
Where's the Doc? I would think we're long overdue for an update!
Quoting DellOperator:


Link

It's all in the crunch time the computers take to plot solutions.


Thank you!
Any take on the wave about to emerge from Africa?
Oh BTW,

Don't know if anyone else posted it, but today is the anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. As far as I can tell, still the most powerful TC in recorded history to ever make landfall anywhere in the world.
The A/B high was much stronger and there weren't any troughs to turn Rita N/NW. I agree we don't know where Erika is going, and I wouldn't rule anything out, but current steering and A/B high suggests she will turn to the NW, it just depends on when and how strong she will be before then.
Good Morning Troops......Erika will not be easy to track until she strengthens and gets some motion going so forget the current model runs or forecast points until she figures out what she is going to do. She may meander around for a while, She may strengthen, She may dissipate and succumb to the sheer, She may blow up and surprise everyone......All Bets are Off for the time being.
Hey StormW Good Morning Sir. Wow. Not happy about the models right now. Seems to put FL back in Play. The fact that we are outside the five day cone bothers me. LOL.

To me the only player is the High. What is your take on its set up.

Thank you.
The lower level conditions left from previous systems and current systems influence the upper level conditions that are used by the models.
3641. surfmom
Quoting mikatnight:


Had to jump in here. As an electrician I'm somewhat qualified to give a correct answer. If you're concerned about lightning (and if you live in Florida - the lightning capital of the world - there's good reason to be), then consider installing lightning protection at your main electrical panel. It's relatively cheap (around $100 plus labor) and quick to install. Work should be done by a qualified electrician. Also note that surge protection (from plug strips or a UPS) will not protect against lightning strikes. Those devices are designed to protect you from your utility company. Hope this helps...


That's how I am set-up and it makes a difference!!!
When our house was hit a few years ago, the boom and power of the bolt was sooo strong I was literally blown out of my chair. All the hair on the cats were sticking straight out..... but thanks to the thingy on the eletrical panel...... no equipment, including the weather station was fried...
Quoting homegirl:
The A/B high was much stronger and there weren't any troughs to turn Rita N/NW. I agree we don't know where Erika is going, and I wouldn't rule anything out, but current steering and A/B high suggests she will turn to the NW, it just depends on when and how strong she will be before then.


AH! So Bob was right! ;)
3643. P451
Quoting Chiggy007:
Any take on the wave about to emerge from Africa?




The models consistently dissipated the first wave (seen exiting NW of the CV islands) and wanted to develop the second one (now getting ready to exit).

It's being watched but don't expect any commentary on it as Erika and a potential northern gulf to carolina coastline system tries to develop.
3644. Relix
Quoting Dakster:
I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment?


Nah don't think so. At least I am not planning on putting them up for a 40mph or less tropical storm.
Erika looks like she is shrinking minute by minute, just like a man whos been in a cold pool for a long time..current trend, DMIN=weak DMAX=strong..i personally see this happening for the next couple of days..
Quoting Dakster:
I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment?


No need for that
3647. hydrus
Quoting mikatnight:
Oh BTW,

Don't know if anyone else posted it, but today is the anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. As far as I can tell, still the most powerful TC in recorded history to ever make landfall anywhere in the world.
I thought Australia held that distinction.
Quoting Brillig:


Well, yes, there is an "it" there, but I wouldn't call it the center of circulation. That looks like a peripheral eddy to me.


Could certainly be a possibility, however I think it is a bit larger and more well defined to be an eddy. Looks a lot like a weakening exposed COC. But without having the visible imagery overnight, we may never know.

Regardless, the new center is likely to form under the convection to the East and since it is now at about the same latitude as Guadalupe, Erika will probably pass close to Antigua and Barbuda. The models will have to be adjusted slightly southward as a result. VI and PR could be in her path, but she wont have much time to intensify beyond a strong tropical storm.

I am wondering whether that High moving over the east coast will hold for the next 5-7 days??
3650. centex
It's a cone buster and short term buster less than 24 hours. I wonder what data is missing?
Quoting superweatherman:

history show this may be a GOM storm
It also shows it may NOT be a GOM storm!
3618. Mik. Thanks for this info. This is why I love this blog. One can learn so much. I'm forwarding your comment to my hubby so he can look into getting that main electrical panel lightning protection installed both at home at at his office.

Quoting StormW:


No.
Good morning sir. If Erika is really moving wsw now as I see some on here saying what would that mean for intensification and track in the Caribbean ?
Quoting StormW:


No.

LOL
Quoting homegirl:
Here's a good question for those who really know their stuff.

On the radar, and visual images, you can see a low level circulation, and it's moving WSW. If this is Erika's LLC (I think it is) then Erika is definately moving WSW for the moment.

However, what if that is no longer the LLC and a new one has formed under the convection, which the low level swirl seen on visual is now rotating around, giving the appearance of the WSW movement?? Is this at all possible?


Absolutely. Currently this storm has multiple vortices (or eddies if you will) that are rotating or flowing about a larger scale low pressure area. And there are multiple vorts not only along the surface, but in the vertical as well which makes the overall direction extremely difficult to determine due to changing flow directions with height. This is a very complex "mixture" of motions which is giving everyone studying this fits. Some of these "swirls" can be absorbed within other swirls or can become ejected. Until this thing begins to consolidate into a single major vortex you are going to see reports of erratic motion as the HH's fly thru this chaotic mess.

Anyone else care to comment?

DellOP
3656. surfmom
3648 - Gotta appreciate your map reading talent.
Quoting justalurker:
Erika looks like she is shrinking minute by minute, just like a man whos been in a cold pool for a long time..current trend, DMIN=weak DMAX=strong..i personally see this happening for the next couple of days..


Ya had to use the “man in the pool analogy”, eh? Men are like hurricanes because…
Just had some clouds move into the area & they are coming in from the WNW here in the cetre of Dominica. They are at about 4500ft as they are touching our highest peaks as they pass through.
3659. P451
Spaghetti. Early Cycle. Notice XTRP firing off to the WSW. Not sure if I'd use that as an actual heading as the WSW appearance of Erika is probably more due to center reformation than an actual course change.

3660. surfmom
Quoting Thunderground:
3618. Mik. Thanks for this info. This is why I love this blog. One can learn so much. I'm forwarding your comment to my hubby so he can look into getting that main electrical panel lightning protection installed both at home at at his office.



Well worth the investment!! All it takes is one hit..
Quoting StormW:
Here's the deal at the present...looking at the 12Z wind shear from CIMSS, standby for her to possibly regain strength.

Looking at RGB satellite loop imagery, Erika IS NOT moving WSW or SW. In fact, looks like we may see a center reformation under the convective flare up. She is moving about 275 right now. The appearance of the SW motion, is the convection being controlled at the 200-700 mb steerng level.






That is where the NHC has located the new center per the 8AM advisory. You are on top of it StormW. Ha!
3662. 7544
wow ericka is really loosing the ball of convection to the south at this hour but looks like a new one trying to form right on top of the nhc plot
Quoting mikatnight:


Ya had to use the “man in the pool analogy”, eh? Men are like hurricanes because…


there convection can blow up at any time!!
Here's Joe Bastardi's take on it this am.


Erika is an island of moist air in the sea of dryness surrounding it. That being said, the areas west of 70 are moist, and this system though spread out has had in increase in overall energy the past 24 hours. I am fairly certain a low-level center will suddenly re-appear under the cloud mass and then we will have a real, live storm.

Yesterday's "fake-out" was similar to the Hanna fake-out last year, where sudden deepening of Hanna to 992 north of Hispaniola convinced me I was on the right track with that being a major eastern hurricane. Instead, the stronger system simply pulled in dry air from the island to the south and, once entrained, ruined the core enough so the competing outside bands kept Hanna from firing up. Again, by looking hard at the mistakes one makes, one learns not to get fooled again.

Erika's chance for being a big storm is northwest of where it is, in an area in between where other African wave paths have been. Unfortunately, given the pattern, it may be a storm that has a lot of impact on the U.S. East Coast next week
Quoting homelesswanderer:


AH! So Bob was right! ;)


Bob was right, when? Now, or about Rita? If it's the Bob you're talking about, I need to check out his morning analysis. :)
Quoting hydrus:
I thought Australia held that distinction.


I'm no expert. I've looked around though and couldn't find one to beat the '35 storm. If you (or someone else) knows different, I'd be interested to know. TIA
Yes, the upper level controls the path. However, there are many factors such as temperature, pressure, land, forests, outflow boundaries that are contributing to the outcome of the upper level changes. For example, the jet stream detected the other night enhanced the reasoning of the "unknown changes" to Erika.
Some of the new runs are trending a little more south. Good news, bad news. Lots of rain for the northern Caribbean islands, but more land interaction means much weaker system if it survives into south Florida.
Link
There GOES the neighborhood.
Can anyone provide a layman explanation on Erika and her POSSIBLE track? -TIA (at work blackberry)
3676. goavs4
I don't usually worry this early about any systems but with Erika meandering around and this historical track record:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200906_climo.html#a_topad

It makes me a bit nervous since of 12 historical September storms (TS within 200 miles of Erika) 5 were "fish storms", 1 hit the outer banks of NC, and 6 hit the gulf coast somewhere including the 1900 Galveston storm.

Thanks for all the folks on here though with level heads and good analysis, it makes sifting through the riffraff worth it!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's Joe Basardi's take on it this am.


Erika is an island of moist air in the sea of dryness surrounding it. That being said, the areas west of 70 are moist, and this system though spread out has had in increase in overall energy the past 24 hours. I am fairly certain a low-level center will suddenly re-appear under the cloud mass and then we will have a real, live storm.

Yesterday's "fake-out" was similar to the Hanna fake-out last year, where sudden deepening of Hanna to 992 north of Hispaniola convinced me I was on the right track with that being a major eastern hurricane. Instead, the stronger system simply pulled in dry air from the island to the south and, once entrained, ruined the core enough so the competing outside bands kept Hanna from firing up. Again, by looking hard at the mistakes one makes, one learns not to get fooled again.

Erika's chance for being a big storm is northwest of where it is, in an area in between where other African wave paths have been. Unfortunately, given the pattern, it may be a storm that has a lot of impact on the U.S. East Coast next week


Joe B always says the east coast of the U.S. on every system @ first...then says Florida...then says Texas-La... then 24hrs before landfall he give where it will go!

I like him for entertainment...but he belongs in Wunderground forums! lol


3679. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
Erika looks like some out of a science fiction book. Does anyone have an idea what is going to happen with this thing?
Quoting P451:
Spaghetti. Early Cycle. Notice XTRP firing off to the WSW. Not sure if I'd use that as an actual heading as the WSW appearance of Erika is probably more due to center reformation than an actual course change.



Yeah, the center reform negates that X-Trap as it will take that into the 6 hour motion which is not accurate.
3681. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:


Joe B always says the east coast of the U.S. on every system @ first...then says Florida...then says Texas-La... then 24hrs before landfall he give where it will go!

I like him for entertainment...but he belongs in Wunderground forums! lol




LOL...amen.
Yes StormW. Which is one reason the models have missed the path. They rely on cold hard facts and miss many "butterfly" effects.
Off to work now. Back in the afternoon. Everyone have a good day...
3684. P451




Looks like convection firing over the "new center" and the other convection is waning.

An attempt to tighten up? Or just yet another cycle...
Erica "barely" made TS status yesterday and is struggling this morning. Any significant interaction with the Greater Antilles would probably doom her unless she ramps up before getting there, or, misses them completely...The next 48 hours will be interesting to watch.
can someone tell me if there is anything keeping this storm OUT of the Gulf? Highs, ridges, troughs, etc????


Looks like P451 called it right.
Quoting StormW:
Here's the deal at the present...looking at the 12Z wind shear from CIMSS, standby for her to possibly regain strength.

Looking at RGB satellite loop imagery, Erika IS NOT moving WSW or SW. In fact, looks like we may see a center reformation under the convective flare up. She is moving about 275 right now. The appearance of the SW motion, is the convection being controlled at the 200-700 mb steerng level.





again i'm no met, but i just saw on the news that in fact the center is moving wsw and that is coming from the nhc. you are very good at what you do here, but you all are trusting the models too much imo. the nhc has no idea and neither does anyone else about where this storm is going. this storm has proven every professional and model wrong so far. no denying the movement anymore. its now fact!
Quoting hydrus:
Erika looks like some out of a science fiction book. Does anyone have an idea what is going to happen with this thing?


nope to soon to tell.... really need to wait about 3 more days before we get a good handle on this one....
Quoting StormW:


Right now, the mid to shallow layer is controlling the path.


What's the images I have to use then?

Could anyone have predicted that it would stall like this?
3692. CapnK
Quoting hydrus:
Erika looks like some out of a science fiction book. Does anyone have an idea what is going to happen with this thing?


Nope, not really, not yet. Keep reading here for lots of speculation, though! ;)
Quoting P451:




Looks like convection firing over the "new center" and the other convection is waning.

An attempt to tighten up? Or just yet another cycle...


is it me or does erika look like she is giving a hand gesture to this blog, saying..try tracking this
Quoting taco2me61:


nope to soon to tell.... really need to wait about 3 more days before we get a good handle on this one....


it all depends on where you live, i'm right next to it
Good morning everyone.. This Erika is going to drive us all mad. It looks like she's a party girl ,loves to blow up at night and chill in the morning..
good morning everyone. so is she moving south or is it just the convection that makes it look that way?
Even the most northern models like HWRF and GFDl are now hinting toward FLORIDA!

Interesting several days to come...
3699. msphar
Take a break from the Erika dilemma, consider the poor people of Puerto San Carlos (google map it) who took a direct hit from Jimena last night. I would imagine that place is pretty much destroyed. How sad.
ITS GONNA BE A FL STORM BEING SAYING IT FOR FOUR DAYS SO GOM CASTERS CHILL OUT. TX MIGHT GET SOME RAIN FROM A NEW STORM IN THE GOM BUT NOT AIRICKA SOUNDS LIKE PAPRICKA. i like ericka better. sorry had to vent.
3701. hydrus
Quoting mikatnight:


I'm no expert. I've looked around though and couldn't find one to beat the '35 storm. If you (or someone else) knows different, I'd be interested to know. TIA
I dont know if you have ever read about the labor day storm,but it was a terrible tragedy.I remember talking to the old timers about it and heartbreaking is the only word that comes to mind. I think there were 68 in the Russell family before the storm.There were only 11 or so left after......awful.
sarahjola: Except that the NHC noted that the confidence in their "expected" track is at a low point now. The models are not taking into
effect the multitude of smaller weather observations undetected by their instruments well enough. Like Rob Carver said the other day, the residents need to keep their "eyes to the skies".
3703. jpsb
Quoting Tropicaddict:
can someone tell me if there is anything keeping this storm OUT of the Gulf? Highs, ridges, troughs, etc????
There is a very impressive trof in the Gulf, Erika will have a hard time getting past that.
Quoting jpsb:
There is a very impressive trof in the Gulf, Erika will have a hard time getting past that.


but that's supposed to move out in the next few days according to local mets. Right??
3705. FLdewey
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Erica "barely" made TS status yesterday and is struggling this morning. Any significant interaction with the Greater Antilles would probably doom her unless she ramps up before getting there, or, misses them completely...The next 48 hours will be interesting to watch.


Agreed... it will be interesting to wait and see what she does.
Quoting sarahjola:

again i'm no met, but i just saw on the news that in fact the center is moving wsw and that is coming from the nhc. you are very good at what you do here, but you all are trusting the models too much imo. the nhc has no idea and neither does anyone else about where this storm is going. this storm has proven every professional and model wrong so far. no denying the movement anymore. its now fact!



When the NHC posts a direction they say a system is moving..its generally over 6hr period.. right now we are not 100% sure on a Core LLC.. the LLC moving WSW is the old center and could be still the 1 which keeps going... but a newer LLC may form near the MLC around 59.6W... Bests are off and models are useless when a system isnt developed well.
3707. spathy
What the heck is Cantori coming here to Ft Myers for?
Thats like Jessica Fletcher coming to town! Nothing good ever happens.
>She is moving about 275 right now. The appearance of the SW motion, is the convection being controlled at the 200-700 mb steerng level.

That is one influence on the path. There are many other factors that have influenced the overall previous path.
3709. P451
Quoting justalurker:


is it me or does erika look like she is giving a hand gesture to this blog, saying..try tracking this


L-O-L

Hey everyone

Looks like GFS is taking it on a rita run! Or close to it. Any thoughts?

TIA
Brandy
3711. centex
I predict the WSW movement is about to end and it will intensify around the new COC. It will than start to track W to WNW. So it will enter the Caribbean. All bets are off for tomorrow.
3712. Relix
Still moving west it seems. I expect the track to shift to Puerto Rico next.
Quoting spathy:
What the heck is Cantori coming here to Ft Myers for?
Thats like Jessica Fletcher coming to town! Nothing good ever happens.


LOL, Cantori is coming here? I'm putting up my shutters tomorrow. ;)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Y'all, I'll bet my life that Erika will not head towards Ft. Laddy-Daddy. :)


Welcome back Weather Student! Group hug
when are the hunters going in? their info will be nice to see.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good morning, all! The big man on campus is back!!!!!!! So, what about that Erika?


Good Morning. Looks like Erika is giving everyone a run for her money. Track and intensity wise. But that's why we love to watch them. Be too easy if we had all the answers. :)
Quoting spathy:
What the heck is Cantori coming here to Ft Myers for? To shoot his pilot episode Cane He Wrote......lol
Quoting Relix:
Still moving west it seems. I expect the track to shift to Puerto Rico


... again (roll eyes)
3719. hydrus
Quoting futurenavymet:
ITS GONNA BE A FL STORM BEING SAYING IT FOR FOUR DAYS SO GOM CASTERS CHILL OUT. TX MIGHT GET SOME RAIN FROM A NEW STORM IN THE GOM BUT NOT AIRICKA SOUNDS LIKE PAPRICKA. i like ericka better. sorry had to vent.
How do you know it will hit Florida?
Quoting hydrus:
I dont know if you have ever read about the labor day storm,but it was a terrible tragedy.I remember talking to the old timers about it and heartbreaking is the only word that comes to mind. I think there were 68 in the Russell family before the storm.There were only 11 or so left after......awful.

If you get a chance, read the book titled "Storm Of The Century". about the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 if you haven't already. Excellent read.
3721. Patrap
12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Quoting cirrocumulus:
sarahjola: Except that the NHC noted that the confidence in their "expected" track is at a low point now. The models are not taking into
effect the multitude of smaller weather observations undetected by their instruments well enough. Like Rob Carver said the other day, the residents need to keep their "eyes to the skies".

i agree
Quoting truecajun:
when are the hunters going in? there info will be nice to see.


they already went in twice in a couple of hour's span, last time was at 2AM EDT and found less than the 1st HH
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Hey everyone

Looks like GFS is taking it on a rita run! Or close to it. Any thoughts?

TIA
Brandy


Yeah, I think I need to look at the GFS. Lol.
I can remember hurricane Ivan models going straight up the penninsula of florida. Now that the storm is drifting sw, I dont trust the current forecast.
there seems to be an area of disturbed weather festering near 9N 44W in conjunction with a tropical wave. it also appears that there is a pertabation in the ITCZ in exactly the same area. vertical wind shear is in the region of 5-10 knots. this morning QS indicated some form of a surface low trying to form. the winds are in the 25 knot range and there is also evidence of cyclonic turning. this area at this time will be monitored for signs of development.
3727. rs985
I just wanted to know what effect the stationary front that's off the east coast will have on Erika. I've been hearing that a couple low pressures is supposed to move Erika's track a little north like how the model's are predicting so far. Will the stationary front help prevent a landfall around the mid-atlantic since it's off the coast?
Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Good morning everyone.. This Erika is going to drive us all mad. It looks like she's a party girl ,loves to blow up at night and chill in the morning..


Ofcourse it is a woman.
3730. Michfan
Quoting sarahjola:

again i'm no met, but i just saw on the news that in fact the center is moving wsw and that is coming from the nhc. you are very good at what you do here, but you all are trusting the models too much imo. the nhc has no idea and neither does anyone else about where this storm is going. this storm has proven every professional and model wrong so far. no denying the movement anymore. its now fact!


Link where the NHC has said that. What your seeing is a deception with your eyes. Its nothing but a center reformation.
Another stupid question. What is the diffrence in the ensemble models, and computer modeles?
3732. jpsb
Quoting Tropicaddict:


but that's supposed to move out in the next few days according to local mets. Right??
All I know is that it is still blowing here on Galveston Bay. So I think this trof will hang around long enough to interact with Erika before Erika gets into the GoM. I just do not see Erika making into the GoM.
3733. P451
Steering and Environment for Erika - 12KM WV

Quoting hydrus:
How do you know it will hit Florida?
because she is gonna stairstep like frances did. the path is there for her. its a fg towards fl.
Quoting mobilegirl81:
I can remember hurricane Ivan models going straight up the penninsula of florida. Now that the storm is drifting sw, I dont trust the current forecast.


I remember that aswell.... But I do need to say that it is very hard for the models to pick up on a system that has not even got its ack together... It could get very interesting in the coming days though....
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


Thanks for that... crazy to see how much she shifted south in the night.


thats for sure....lastnight when i saw Erika heading WSW, i thought my eyes were playing tricks on me...but when i saw her this morning there was a big difference from last night
3737. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
How do you know it will hit Florida?


Because he's typing in ALL CAPS! ;-)
Quoting jpsb:
All I know is that it is still blowing here on Galveston Bay. So I think this trof will hang around long enough to interact with Erika before Erika gets into the GoM. I just do not see Erika making into the GoM.


thanks!!!
At 11:00 am the storm will be 40 mph with a 4 mb rise in pressure. Center reformed 40 miles to the s of last location
3740. Michfan
Quoting cirrocumulus:
>She is moving about 275 right now. The appearance of the SW motion, is the convection being controlled at the 200-700 mb steerng level.

That is one influence on the path. There are many other factors that have influenced the overall previous path.


And would those factors be other than the low level and mid steering layers since its a weak storm? Its readily apparent the ULL is no longer pulling it NW.
Good morining everyone. Ericka still a wait and watcher. She's keeping it interesting at least.
Quoting PackerFan2:


they already went in twice in a couple of hour's span, last time was at 2AM EDT and found less than the 1st HH


what do you mean "less"? less intensity?
3743. P451
Erika estimated wind field.

3744. Patrap
Hurricane Hunters
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 31 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 17.5N 56.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 01/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0213E JIMENA
C. 01/0915Z
D. 21.5N 110.5W
E. 01/1400Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


3745. hydrus
Quoting hurricanejunky:

If you get a chance, read the book titled "Storm Of The Century". about the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 if you haven't already. Excellent read.
I do not have that book,I will try to get it.
Good Morning Everyone!

Couple of things I'm thinking this morning...

1. The Barotropic Models continue to show due west motion and slow. I'm starting to buy what they're selling. Could be good if it takes Erika over more land, could be bad if for some reason it misses land south of Hispaniola. Too early to tell, and plenty of time to watch with slow forward motion.

2. Dry air is really messing with Erika. Outflow boundaries are disrupting the low level circulation...

3. The NAM from this morning loses ANY low with Erika in 12 hours, despite low shear and favorable ventilaion?!?! Another model that is out to lunch...
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:

3728:
North of the islands isn't exactly the super-cane-fuel:
3749. P451
Erika - Waves

3750. Bubu77
Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous Erika !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique en 1990 !!
3751. Patrap
Tomorrow's HH POD


Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT TUE 01 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77......NO CHANGE
A. 02/1800Z, 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 02/1630Z
D. 17.8N 60.7W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2355Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75......NO CHANGE
A. 03/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 03/0445Z
D. 18.5N 62.2W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA - TEAL 70.....ADDED
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03131E JIMENA
C. 03/1200Z
D. 25.1N 112.6W
E. 02/1700Z TO 02/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Does anyone have the link to the UKMET model. Thank you.
Quoting Michfan:


Link where the NHC has said that. What your seeing is a deception with your eyes. Its nothing but a center reformation.

watch the news. you know the line they use to show you where the storm has gone and where it will go, well that line went up and down. a big jump down for that matter. i am no expert but it moved sw. no denying that! i have no reason to lie about it. i just think its weird how everyone who is usually right on here has been wrong with this one. another sign that no one can tell what mother nature will do. the only reason i even started to comment was because people were getting mad and being rude to people didn't think that this storm was a fish and didn't believe that it wasn't going to hit the islands. it seems as though the really good ones on here are starting to just go by the nhc instead of instinct
P451, can you freeze that last frame of that 3733 animation?
what is that?
Quoting Bubu77:
Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous Erika !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique en 1990 !!
Vous etes sur la
Will the stationary front help prevent a landfall around the mid-atlantic since it's off the coast?

That depends on a lot of factors observed and unobserved. lol
The models have higher confidence with stronger systems and the proximity of the disturbances to the systems. Right now, the path and speed is somewhat bewildering because of several "unknown, unobserved" conditions.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
3758. IKE
Erika doing a strip-tease as she approaches the islands....
3759. Patrap
3760. jpsb
Quoting Tropicaddict:


thanks!!!
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.
I looked at the GFS LP. At first it starts out like Rita but hooks north on the extended, hits SF then out to sea. I don't know how accurate any of the models are but I looked up Dr.M's Rita blogs and GFS had Rita in the TX/LA coast 5 days early. That may have been a good guess but it was spot on. :)
3762. Bubu77

Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique
Quoting TriniGirl26:
thats for sure....lastnight when i saw Erika heading WSW, i thought my eyes were playing tricks on me...but when i saw her this morning there was a big difference from last night


Well she's really decided to be an independent woman... seems to be doing whatever she pleases. At this point I'm not really sure just what to expect as she nears us.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
At 11:00 am the storm will be 40 mph with a 4 mb rise in pressure. Center reformed 40 miles to the s of last location
very likely and the trak will shift southward as well 5 day cone will probably include SE Florida
3765. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:


Because he's typing in ALL CAPS! ;-)
OH,,I should have been paying more ATTENTION......my apologies to everyone....:)
Quoting P451:




The models consistently dissipated the first wave (seen exiting NW of the CV islands) and wanted to develop the second one (now getting ready to exit).

It's being watched but don't expect any commentary on it as Erika and a potential northern gulf to carolina coastline system tries to develop.

Yay, Negative MoJO:
NHC should shift the track south a bit. More inline with the TCVN and GFDL
3769. IKE
Quoting ClearwaterSteve:
Does anyone have the link to the UKMET model. Thank you.


Link
BASSETERRE, St. Kitts-A slight move to the south for Tropical Storm Erika has caused the tropical storm watch issued for the Federation last night to be upgraded to a warning as of 8 a.m. today (Sept. 2).

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Office as of this morning, the centre of the storm system was located “near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 59.5 west or about 219 miles east of St. Kitts and 223 miles east of Nevis”.

“The system has been moving generally west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles, mainly to the northeast of the centre,” the bulletin further stated.

While Erika had been previous forecast to pass north of St. Kitts-Nevis, a shift in direction and the unpredictability of the storm caused the Antigua Meteorological Office to issue a warning for the Federation.

“There is a fair degree of uncertainty with respect to its eventual path and strength. However, based on the last and best information, the storm is now expected to pass a little further south of its previous forecast track. Therefore, a tropical storm warning has been issued for St. Kitts and Nevis, as storm force winds are now likely Wednesday night.”

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

“Heavy showers and thunderstorms, which could result in minor to moderate flooding in lowly and flood prone areas” are also currently forecast to pass over the Federation, and the public is being advised to take proper precautions.

At this time, the Meteorological Office does not deem “battering down” as a necessity for all residents, but did state that “persons in relatively weak structures may do so to be on the safe side”.

The system is not expected to gain hurricane strength before it passes over St. Kitts and Nevis this evening, but any loose objects that could become projectiles in the high winds should be secured.

According to the communiqué, seas have begun to deteriorate and waves could reach up to 12 feet in height by this evening.
“Hence, mariners should seek safe anchorage for their crafts until the system passes.”

Tropical storm warnings have also been issued for Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.

All residents are asked to closely monitor the progress of the system, and further updates will be issued as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
just go by the nhc instead of instinct

That's because many times the nhc has enough data and information. Now, however, the nhc has acknowledged that there are unknown "butterfly" factors and so the confidence is low.
As long as the current pattern holds in GOMEX
there is very little chance for Erika to move
there. The persistent troughing will eventually move her back out into the Atlantic.
The $64,000 question is when .
3773. Michfan
Quoting sarahjola:

watch the news. you know the line they use to show you where the storm has gone and where it will go, well that line went up and down. a big jump down for that matter. i am no expert but it moved sw. no denying that! i have no reason to lie about it. i just think its weird how everyone who is usually right on here has been wrong with this one. another sign that no one can tell what mother nature will do. the only reason i even started to comment was because people were getting mad and being rude to people didn't think that this storm was a fish and didn't believe that it wasn't going to hit the islands. it seems as though the really good ones on here are starting to just go by the nhc instead of instinct


We go by what the facts show us. Model runs and official NHC tracks are going to shift as the center tries to reestablish itself. It has no dead set well defined LLC which we call a center reformation. If there is no well defined center the models have trouble intializing it properly because they use past data that is inputted into them so what you see over a course of 3-6 hours may not be in that current running model. This is why you see alot of shifts after the fact rather than right at that moment.

Nor is the storm vertically stacked. What your seeing is the Mid Level Circulation otherwise known as the MLC being influenced by the mid steering layer. StormW isn't wrong at all.
3774. Prgal
New blog
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ivan never was straight up the peninsula, although the cone did cover it at one point.

here is the link



When Ivan was going thru the Islands they had him going up to south FL and then east coast.... aswe all know it kept moving west and was at a lower lat.... but still at that point it was to go up the east coast....
Quoting jpsb:
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
Yeah, it is a derived product, the 850 mb divergence has a bit to do with dry air. Lower level divergence = sinking air = adiabatic heating = dry.

This is a huge area of divergence very near a budding TS...not going to do Erika any favors.

Wow Erika is a girl that can't make up her mind which is keeping her from strengthening at this time. I really thought she was on her way last night only to throw a curveball at us and say nope not tonight. One looking at the visible imagery there are two center of circulations at the low levels of the atmosphere. One is already on the islands and there is another one within the new convection flareup. One thing is certain with Erika, she can really fire up convection quickly and her atmosphere is moist around her.
3779. fmbill
Quoting Seflhurricane:
very likely and the trak will shift southward as well 5 day cone will probably include SE Florida


Until it really "gets going", I doubt the 5-day position of Erika will be close enough to Florida to actually place it in the cone. Maybe by day 6 or 7(?)
Quoting IKE:
Erika doing a strip-tease as she approaches the islands....


Thought she was not supposed to hit the Islands? Looks awfully close to me.
Quoting Bubu77:

Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique


Excuser mon français mauvais. C'est important d'écouter les avertissements mais essayer de ne pas paniquer juste encore. Je pense qui'il faut seulement restez vigilant.
Quoting jpsb:
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.


GMZ089-021530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM N PANHANDLE TO SOUTH TEXAS
SLOWLY MOVE SE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT
AND THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI.

Sigh! Ssshhh! Lol. ;)
3783. CaneBob
Eirka is definitely feeling the effects of dry air and the center has shifted south as have the projected paths for some of the major models. Erika also faces the potential of growing shear ahead of it so it seems that both the intensity and path are still questionable. The odds for that more southerly course for Erika be it a depression, tropical storm or hurricane are increasing.

I look forward to Dr. Master's next update later today.
Thing is, will Erika make it into the NW Caribbean Sea.
3785. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Hunters
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 31 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 17.5N 56.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 01/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0213E JIMENA
C. 01/0915Z
D. 21.5N 110.5W
E. 01/1400Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Patrap - that's yesterday's. For some reason they haven't updated it. Have to look at the "tomorrow plan" link to get today's.

But, not much different, really.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0506A ERIKA
C. 03/1700Z
D. 17.7N 63.57W
E. 03/1715Z TO 03/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0606A ERIKA
C. 04/0500Z
D. 18.3N 64.8W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/1145Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 02/1800Z ON HURRICANE
JIMENA CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1130Z.
JWP
3786. surfmom
Quoting StormW:


Thanks surfmom...guess it's better than my forecasting?


*smile* -- I think you have both bases covered quite well
3787. Seastep
Never mind. They just updated it.
I'M PUTING MY EYES ON THIS THING, BECAUSE HERE IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ONE DROP OF WATER COULD MAKE A CHAOS...
3789. Bubu77
Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique
3790. surfmom
Quoting msphar:
Take a break from the Erika dilemma, consider the poor people of Puerto San Carlos (google map it) who took a direct hit from Jimena last night. I would imagine that place is pretty much destroyed. How sad.


thank you!!!! been wondering about those folks!
3791. Seastep
Here's today's. Patrap's earlier one was 31AUG, but they updated it in between.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT TUE 01 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77......NO CHANGE
A. 02/1800Z, 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 02/1630Z
D. 17.8N 60.7W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2355Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75......NO CHANGE
A. 03/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 03/0445Z
D. 18.5N 62.2W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA - TEAL 70.....ADDED
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03131E JIMENA
C. 03/1200Z
D. 25.1N 112.6W
E. 02/1700Z TO 02/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Florida still has to watch erika closely because once it reaches the Bahamas, the conditions will allow intesification
Thank you IKE
3794. Seastep
NEW BLOG
Also Thank you Jeff. Question. The other day someone posted a shot of Ericka on a globe. Not sure where it was from. Kind of put it in perspective. Not sure if it was a Sat shot or what.
3796. Bubu77
Definitely on but when I see this big mass which advances only has 7km / h towards us I thought that it would go back up northward and it plustot gives the impression of desendre on the last pictures!!
Ok. Here's my 2 cents. FWIW.

Looking at this you can see that big ridge all over the east coast, thru Fl, into the gulf, ending in the SW LA. Now, at the end of the run look off the SE coast. You can see they think there will still be enough of a trough to cause a weakness in the ridge and pull the storm out to sea. That is good for everyone. The only thing got me nervous is the size of that ridge in this year of troughs. However, the slower she goes, maybe the better for the gulf from west to east. Because if you look above Texas you can see a small trough, forget what they're called. And a bigger one farther west. So maybe if shes slow enough and does head for the gulf the troughs can weaken the ridge. Only thing is, Where.

Link
For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.
Quoting truecajun:


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
I was wondering how long this front would "hang around". A week seems like a long time.
Quoting 69Viking:
For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.


that's what i was saying:

Link
I HOPE NOT HAPPEN THIS

3802. jpsb
Quoting truecajun:


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
I'm surprised it's held this long! But even after the front lifts the trof will still be around protecting the GoM. If you are on the GoM, the thing to watch is that HUGE trof on the east coast. When that goes away then CV storms have a chance of reaching the GoM.

Now if I were gulfcasting, lol, I say that since Erika is not stacked, (circulation wise that is, lol) she remains unorganized and she might just slide under the upper level steering currents (trof as it lifts and moves east) and continues slowly west, maybe even a little south of west. Then she organizes and makes it into the GoM after the front has lifted.

the above is not likely as Erika is bond to become better organized and the trof is exceptionally strong. Any movement north makes interaction with that trof more certain. Any interaction with Island mountains will likely rip a weak T.S. like Erika apart. So if Erika stays weak and continues west the islands will get her. If the gets strong and goes more north the trof will get her. Shes got one hard road ahead of her if she wants to get into the nice warm gulf waters.
.ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Quoting jpsb:
I'm surprised it's held this long! But even after the front lifts the trof will still be around protecting the GoM. If you are on the GoM, the thing to watch is that HUGE trof on the east coast. When that goes away then CV storms have a chance of reaching the GoM.

Now if I were gulfcasting, lol, I say that since Erika is not stacked, (circulation wise that is, lol) she remains unorganized and she might just slide under the upper level steering currents (trof as it lifts and moves east) and continues slowly west, maybe even a little south of west. Then she organizes and makes it into the GoM after the front has lifted.

the above is not likely as Erika is bond to become better organized and the trof is exceptionally strong. Any movement north makes interaction with that trof more certain. Any interaction with Island mountains will likely rip a weak T.S. like Erika apart. So if Erika stays weak and continues west the islands will get her. If the gets strong and goes more north the trof will get her. Shes got one hard road ahead of her if she wants to get into the nice warm gulf waters.


I totally agree, not to mention first that we are experiencing an early Fall in the GOMEX and the whole US maybe for that matter so this fall like pattern should be able to persist. Second Erika is already struggling as it is and I expect for it to take the weaker storm route, but I also dare to say that it will be ripped appart by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola if it hits them and then its remnats should be either absorbed by the trof or redevelop which would then help it interact with the trof and take it NNW. I would be much more concerned about the waves leaving Africa unless of course you live in Puerto RIco which my family including parents and siblings still do.
looking at RGB loop it does not appear that the coc is where nhc says it is, coc seems to be displaced from convection area.my best guess is that coc is at 16.2 and 61.5
and by the way moving wsw!!
3808. Brillig
Looks like a well-defined COC this time, so I'm changing the path line back to a solid line.

16°35'59.21"N 60°51'57.79"W
3809. Brillig
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
and by the way moving wsw!!


I make it WNW, roughly.
Erika is a unpredectible storm. NHC have a headache from this and is almost impossible to forecast already.Hope not to reorganize again quickly but nobody knows.