WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting scooster67:


Good night y'all.


Goodnight and thanks for the 20 hour old models.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon is taking off in a little more than 20 minutes.


Already gear up.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Starting a whole conversation about Jason is considered more off-topic than him posting his weather graphics or his videos. Just leave it alone or ignore him and no harm is done.

Anyways, Recon is taking off in a little more than 20 minutes.

Hey I wasnt starting that just making my point but anyways hes on my list for the 22nd time already :P LOL.Back to emily.
Quoting weatherman12345:
what are your thoughts about the updated steering layer this evening and the path of emily
I spoke a little about it in post 953.
1005. centex
with this systems at level of organization and with public sat images, we can't tell direction.
Quoting muddertracker:
Is the coffee on yet? Anyone staying up for recon?

yep just had my cup

is it me or is there good outflow in all the quadrants?
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


Not just Shanghai, the typhoon will also impact Qinghuangdao, Tianjin, and possibly Beijing causing maybe billions of yuan
Agree,absolutely!

Quoting KanKunKid:


Knock yourself out! If you can do it without breaking the laws of physics that is...;P
Ideally, I'd be able to remain conscious, but who knows?  I should be asleep right now, after all. :P

Instead, maybe I'll prime the pump of discussion with a question that's been in the back of my mind for a while.  We've all seen how quickly some of these storms can seem to spin up out of nowhere.  Something I've been wondering is:  From where do these storms derive this angular momentum?  There aren't too many laws without exceptions in physics, but this is one of them.  There must be a corresponding loss of angular momentum from another part of the system, and the only place I can think where this might come from is the Earth's rotation.  Or is there some behind the scenes fluid flow that might be compensate?
I have Emily at 16.8 and 71.2.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep just had my cup



I prefer slapping myself repeatedly with a honey ham. Keeps the 'ol neurons firing.
1012. beell
The low level "split" or weakness in the trough near 27N 72W. Pretty close to the 850mb vort east of the northern Bahamas on the CIMSS product.

click for IR4 Loop


latent heat of evaporation
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep just had my cup



Great..I won't be the only one on here after midnighting hitting F5. The formation of a storm to hurricane strength is my favorite time to track. Once it does form, I just sit back and watch the blog mayhem...it gets too crazy!
1015. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:

Ideally, I'd be able to remain conscious, but who knows?  I should be asleep right now, after all. :P

Instead, maybe I'll prime the pump of discussion with a question that's been in the back of my mind for a while.  We've all seen how quickly some of these storms can seem to spin up out of nowhere.  Something I've been wondering is:  From where do these storms derive this angular momentum?  There aren't too many laws without exceptions in physics, but this is one of them.  There must be a corresponding loss of angular momentum from another part of the system, and the only place I can think where this might come from is the Earth's rotation.  Or is there some behind the scenes fluid flow that might be compensate?


It's the coriolis force - from the spin of Earth.
GFS is known to be weaker with storms.. remember Felix?
How are we all doing WU night crew?
Quoting reedzone:
GFS is known to be weaker with storms.. remember Felix?


2007...Cat 5...GFS hated on it...am I remembering it right? Supposed to turn but ended up in Nicaragua?
1019. scott39
Emily is moving slow....but she is still moving W!!
Checkout this link, and play with the animations...

http://www.dominicanweather.info/

Link
Hello, this is my first comment to this blog, I am by far not an expert on meterology but love readng the blogs and comments. I live in northwest Florida. I am curious is there a chance of Emily coing this way?
Cantore just tweeted that Emily is looking much better on satellite. HH should reach storm by 1:30. if it is strengthening, it will def pull north.
Quoting TampaSpin:
POST 940 i believe shows a stronger ridge now than many hours ago.....look how the ridge appears to have build West some.
Step backwards and watch the shear to the west tilting more east to west now, instead of north to south. This suggests to me that the high to the northeast is nosing more towards the west, but that's just my guess.



night all. i see emily still hasn't turned yet mmmmmmm are we all still believing the models?

Quoting robj144:


It's the coriolis force - from the spin of Earth.
So it is the Coriolis force that couples Earth's rotation to a developing storm.  That's pretty sweet, when you think about.  You sometimes hear stories about earthquakes shifting the length of a day, but they operate by changing the mass distribution of the crust (and thereby Earth's moment of inertia).  This might mean an extremely intense storm might temporarily cause a similar effect.

Has anyone by chance measured a noticable decrease in Earth's rotation cause by the spin up of a giant storm?  This might be a stretch -- an order of magnitude estimate would probably reveal that'd it be on the order of microseconds or something.  I'm just curious if anyone's heard of it offhand.
Quoting cirrocumulus:
I have Emily at 16.8 and 71.2.


yep thats just about where I have it
Quoting QPhysFTW:
Hey all.  LTL,FTP.  I know most on here are keen on tracking our first hurricane threat of the season, but amidst all the speculation given Emily's recent stall, I figure I'd jump in and give a quick intro before she starts gearing up again and anything I post will just become background noise in the Wunderground spectrum.  I'm joining not so much for the thrill of tracking each individual tropical feature (although it is pretty exciting), but because I've noticed that there are folks on this blog that seem to be well educated about the physics of our atmosphere. When these people are about, I might not be able to
help popping in with a question, or being drawn into interesting physics related weather discussions.  In general, though, I'll probably stick to lurking.
Looks like I chose a good handle then.  I'd love to delve into some of the more esoteric aspects of quantum mechanics at some point, but peak season probably isn't the time to do it.  Suffice it to say right now that the experimental confirmation of quantum mechanics via the violation of Bell's inequality would have made Einstein sulk, for it essentially confirms this "spooky action-at-a-distance" as a fundamental feature of reality.  Thankfully, Einstein is not the Great Arbiter of physics, and can be as wrong as any other physicist.  Well, other than Feynman :P
What exactly is this spooky action? A force, a particle? Explain. And what are its implications?
1028. centex
shear appears to be letting up in last 6 hours based on sat images. I need to see another 6 hours to give any kind of track forecast.
1029. wxhatt
Quoting southfloridajunkie:
is it me or is there good outflow in all the quadrants?

You are seeing cirrus outflow from the building thunderstorms/ convection. That doesn't necessarily mean there is outflow in all quads. You would need an anticyclone to develope overtop in time to see that.
1030. GetReal
Part of the difficulty in forecasting a track is that the storm is relatively weak before longitude 75 and is following the rough edges of the high pressure and these are more pronounced on the symmetrical looking models.
Quoting lizintheville:
Hello, this is my first comment to this blog, I am by far not an expert on meterology but love readng the blogs and comments. I live in northwest Florida. I am curious is there a chance of Emily coing this way?


I think the chance is still on the slim side. Will have to see if the next model runs continue to trend west.If so, then the odds will increase. My non expert opinion is that at the closest, it will brush the east coast of Florida.


Hopefully it shows up, but here are the model runs before it was a TS , I'm posting from my IPhone in an airport so I don't know if it works or not...
Good nite everyone......got a golf match starting tomorrow for the next few days! NITE
thank you for the explanation...
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Hopefully it shows up, but here are the model runs before it was a TS , I'm posting from my IPhone in an airport so I don't know if it works or not...

thats aug 2 map isnt it?
Cane by 11 AM, Texas by Wednesday ...

That's my forecast.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Checkout this link, and play with the animations...

http://www.dominicanweather.info/

Link
Always love ur info and graphics thanks for the update on how China deals with a major storm. Seems like we could learn a few things, especially like the texting part not many people are glued to the weather like "we" are
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINT WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS HAS PUSHED
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL FORCE
INTO ALL OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE ZONES
OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINLY HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST DUE TO THE
TRACK SHIFTING WEST WHICH NOW COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO AT
THIS TIME ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON EMILY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AND THE LOCAL FORECAST FROM US FOR THIS WEEKEND, IN CASE
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD.
1042. emguy
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
night all. i see emily still hasn't turned yet mmmmmmm are we all still believing the models?


Who said we were believing them before??? lol. Anyhew, seen some posts where folks are guessing "Where in the World is Emily SanDiego?". Put me down for 17.2N, 72 W. Serious about that location, but trying to have some late night sense of humor otherwise folks. Mean time, lets see what recon finds out there. Will be interesting, but I think it will be similar to last night less the new coordinates.
Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track maybe all night long to
for me the weakness to take Emily in a Northward track is closing and it's being replaced by a big High Preassure expanding over the east coast of USA. In fact, Emily could move much closer to Florida and the East Coast.
Quoting hurricane23:


How many screen names do you have? Ive placed you on my ignore last like 5-6 time already.
I think he creates 5 or 6 per day
1047. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good nite everyone......got a golf match starting tomorrow for the next few days! NITE


Don't pull a tiger.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Hopefully it shows up, but here are the model runs before it was a TS , I'm posting from my IPhone in an airport so I don't know if it works or not...


Old tracks... Issued when she was an invest
Here are the new ones
1049. GetReal
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 17:06:59 N Lon : 71:02:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1005.6mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.9 3.3

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Hopefully it shows up, but here are the model runs before it was a TS , I'm posting from my IPhone in an airport so I don't know if it works or not...

its old graphic when it was 91L...nice try through.
Hmmmm...so my friend invited me out on his boat Saturday. (In Palm Beach County). Asked him if he's watched the news at all...stunningly, he said no. ;-)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yep thats just about where I have it


Yep, it shifted a little more to the WSW. That is normal with weaker, developing systems.
1053. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:

So it is the Coriolis force that couples Earth's rotation to a developing storm.  That's pretty sweet, when you think about.  You sometimes hear stories about earthquakes shifting the length of a day, but they operate by changing the mass distribution of the crust (and thereby Earth's moment of inertia).  This might mean an extremely intense storm might temporarily cause a similar effect.

Has anyone by chance measured a noticable decrease in Earth's rotation cause by the spin up of a giant storm?  This might be a stretch -- an order of magnitude estimate would probably reveal that'd it be on the order of microseconds or something.  I'm just curious if anyone's heard of it offhand.


First of all, the coriolis force is greatest at the poles, not at the equator, which is why storms do not and can not form near the equator. Second of all, the coriolis force is responsible for the initial spin-up, but the rest of the angular momentum comes from the storm itself. Third of all, if there is some loss of angular momentum from the Earth due to the storm initially, the coriolis force in the southern is the opposite direction, so theoretically they would mostly cancel each other out. Lastly, the mass of a storm is so small that the change in a day would be far less than a massive earth quake.
1054. wxhatt
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good nite everyone......got a golf match starting tomorrow for the next few days! NITE


Gnite, good luck w/ your match tomorrow!
Hi, I'm a first time poster...so go easy on me please. I've lurked around on this site for years and I always follow the Hmmm Hmmm colorful discussions with a great deal of interest. I live on the pamlico sound in NC. This storm makes me a bit nervous. If I lived on the east coast of Florida I would be even more nervous! I think there is a good chance ya'll might get smacked with a strengthing system after Emily leaves the islands. And if the models are overestimating the timing of that eastward turn then we here on the NC banks may have something to worry about as well. I've just seen it happen too many times. We stick out like a sore thumb and systems coming off the east coast of Florida tend to gain strength over the gulf stream and brush right over us. My daughter is named Emily and well if she is any indication I am expecting this storm to be tenacious and full of surprises! LOL
Quoting hahaguy:


Don't pull a tiger.


A hot ex-wife is better than no ex-wife at all!!
Quoting Bretts9112:

thats aug 2 map isnt it?


It is the 18Z runs on the 31st
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


Old tracks... Issued when she was an invest
Here are the new ones

thats what i thought
TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2011

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 8 9 8 9 12
TROP DEPRESSION 11 21 33 25 18 10 10
TROPICAL STORM 86 71 54 57 55 47 48
HURRICANE 3 6 4 10 18 34 30
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 5 4 9 15 27 23
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 3 5 5
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 65KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 1(26)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) X(30)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 8(31) X(31)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) X(25)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 10(45) X(45)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 22(41) 3(44) X(44)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 14(38) 2(40) X(40)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)

GRAND TURK 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 21(22) 11(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

LES CAYES 34 9 27(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
LES CAYES 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 42 18(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CAPE BEATA 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)

PUERTO PLATA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Quoting GetReal:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 17:06:59 N Lon : 71:02:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1005.6mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.9 3.3

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



Seems a good bit too weak.
1061. GetReal
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Hopefully it shows up, but here are the model runs before it was a TS , I'm posting from my IPhone in an airport so I don't know if it works or not...


hmm look at that the best model on that map that fell through interms of track is the CLP5
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

its old graphic when it was 91L...nice try through.


I am posting it for verification purposes so everyone can see how the models have handled the storm so far
i seem to have forgotten how to post images can some one assist?
1066. MTWX
I know not Emily related, but this heat needs to go away!!!! Currently 87 with a 100 heat index, and it is 11:45 pm!!!!!!
Coming back to the loops after about a 6 hour break and finding Emily stalled again is like torture.
1068. GetReal



Yes I agree that those numbers appear to be a little to conservative.
Quoting hurricane23:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINT WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS HAS PUSHED
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL FORCE
INTO ALL OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE ZONES
OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINLY HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST DUE TO THE
TRACK SHIFTING WEST WHICH NOW COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO AT
THIS TIME ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON EMILY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AND THE LOCAL FORECAST FROM US FOR THIS WEEKEND, IN CASE
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD.
is a WOW in order ?!?!?
tracks will keep shifting west right up the west coast
Location of the last vortex over 4 hours ago...will be interesting to see how much Emily has moved:

B. 16 deg 53 min N
070 deg 41 min W
1072. 7544
emily still going west could we see a speacial update before 2 am from the nhc hmmmm
Quoting MTWX:
I know not Emily related, but this heat needs to go away!!!! Currently 87 with a 100 heat index, and it is 11:45 pm!!!!!!


I feel ya...
west coast of FL that is
1075. wxhatt
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
for me the weakness to take Emily in a Northward track is closing and it's being replaced by a big High Preassure expanding over the east coast of USA. In fact, Emily could move much closer to Florida and the East Coast.


It's funny because you would think so, but the forcast is not for it to stay that way. The weakness is supposed to be reinforced.
Quoting MTWX:
I know not Emily related, but this heat needs to go away!!!! Currently 87 with a 100 heat index, and it is 11:45 pm!!!!!!


Same for me! Hotter than Hades outside right now...
Well, if Emily DOES stay offshore of NC or at least shave the coast, I may have to drive down to either Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, or Wrightville Beach to film the storm... but I just got driver license, so I'm not sure about that plan. Should see some big waves through :)
the MLC is getting better via sat
1081. 7544
Quoting hunkerdown:
is a WOW in order ?!?!?
Quoting hunkerdown:
is a WOW in order ?!?!?
Quoting hunkerdown:
is a WOW in order ?!?!?


yeap they did it and look what time it is they are n their toes
Looking at the latest WV imagery along with H85 and H50 streamlines... it is my best estimate that the window of opportunity for Emily to feel that trough is coming to a rapid close. A-B High continues to build westward, and thinking that a close encounter with the Sunshine State is looking even more likely now.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i seem to have forgotten how to post images can some one assist?


Right click on the image

On the menu Left click on "Copy image location"

On the New Comment Window Click on the Image Button

Paste your code

Click on the Post Comment button...

Done

1084. centex
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i seem to have forgotten how to post images can some one assist?
Have you tried reading the instructions? just post the URL in prompt when selecting image. Preview to make sure ok.
If the latest 00Z gfs/nogaps are sign of thinks to come a shift eastward in the models is forthcoming.
1086. robj144
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Same for me! Hotter than Hades outside right now...


Me electric bill is going to be through the roof next month from the AC running 24/7.
Emily's Threat Level


Emily will head for Hispaniola Wednesday through early Thursday. The heavy rains could trigger flashing flooding and mudslides. As of late April, there were 1.5 million Haitians still living in tents, following the deadly Jan. 12, 2010 earthquake. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting between 6 and 12 inches of rain to fall over portions of Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The image below shows the current threats to the Caribbean Islands (click to enlarge).

It is still too soon to determine if there will be direct impact on the U.S. Late this week into weekend will be the critical period.Will this tropical cyclone turn north, then northeastward safely out to sea away from the coast, or will it continue west-northwestward? It's also possible that land interaction could disrupt Emily enough to prevent it from restrengthening once emerging near the Bahamas. Assuming Emily survives, slow strengthening is expected as the system heads northward. Keep checking back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com through the week as we update the threat level graphic below for the Southeast U.S. and the Bahamas.

Quoting 7544:
emily still going west could we see a speacial update before 2 am from the nhc hmmmm


No, the NHC said it would resume a westward motion before turning WNW/NW.
1090. OUSHAWN
Quoting yesterway:


I feel ya...



It's still 99 here in Plano at 11:45!
Quoting FrankZapper:
What exactly is this spooky action? A force, a particle? Explain. And what are its implications?


You want to dig a rabbit hole? I've got a pretty big shovel. :P I could seriously dive pretty far into this, but I doubt this blog is the place for that discussion. Originally, I was going stick to a brief outline, but that proved impossible. I can post a brief-ish discussion on my own blog, though. I'll post here when it's done.
Excited to what they find in her now.
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Not Emily related but:
THREE DAYS, THREE FLARES: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a strong M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). Stay tuned for updates.

The sun is getting active as we climb to Solar Max
is this something to worry about? I've heard of solar storm and how bad it can be, but I have no idea if this is something major or just typical flare...
1094. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


You want to dig a rabbit hole? I've got a pretty big shovel. :P I could seriously dive pretty far into this, but I doubt this blog is the place for that discussion. Originally, I was going stick to a brief outline, but that proved impossible. I can post a brief-ish discussion on my own blog, though. I'll post here when it's done.


You a physics major?
Looks like gettin in shape...

Recon should find a stronger Emily when it gets out there later. She is a lot more stacked and shear has temporarily lessened. She's doing well at the moment.
Bluestorm5, where are you from in NC? I graduated from UNCW and lived at Wrightsville Beach for years. I really do think it is possible that Emily will stay a little more North than East for longer than expected but it is just a feeling...I guess you would call that intuition casting!
Quoting OUSHAWN:



It's still 99 here in Plano at 11:45!


Funny...the same ridge keeping the hurricanes away from us is baking us. Which is the lesser of two evils?
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Effects? I've been reading about this.


1. Solar flares can cause radio blackouts (on the day side)

2. They can fire CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) which causes Geomagnetic Storms, and this causes auroras

3. The strongest CMEs can temporary disrupt satellites and possibly, blackouts on earth
Quoting MississippiWx:
Recon should find a stronger Emily when it gets out there later. She is a lot more stacked and shear has temporarily lessened. She's doing well at the moment.
She's gonna be a tropical depression now, lol.
1101. robj144
Quoting MississippiWx:
Recon should find a stronger Emily when it gets out there later. She is a lot more stacked and shear has temporarily lessened. She's doing well at the moment.


She seems to do well every night though. Last night she was looking about the same.
img src =http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm1.GIF
Eastward shift in models? I don't think so.. Emily doesn't think so either haha.. We will have a clearer picture when this starts the move to the WNW.
1104. 7544
Quoting extreme236:


No, the NHC said it would resume a westward motion before turning WNW/NW.
errr

errrrrrr make it yes i seee it now speacial update
To HydeandSeek: Johnston County, just 15 miles to southeast of Raleigh. I've never been in hurricane before so I don't know what to expect.
Quoting hurricane23:
If the latest 00Z gfs/nogaps are sign of thinks to come a shift eastward in the models is forthcoming.
I disagree. It looks to me like the GFS initialized incorrectly with Emily and the NOGAPS plainly just hasn't been doing well (like usual with every other cyclone) with Emily.
1107. OUSHAWN
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Funny...the same ridge keeping the hurricanes away from us is baking us. Which is the lesser of two evils?


Well, I lived in Houston and Clear Lake for the first 36 years of my life and went through Alicia and Ike along with the other storms and I will take the heat any day of the cyclones.
Quoting robj144:


She seems to do well every night though. Last night she was looking about the same.


No, last night she was still partially exposed with the convection off to the east. Tonight for the first time, she is well underneath the convection and the 500mb vort is a lot more in line with the 850mb vort. It's not perfect but it's a lot better.
1109. JRRP
gusty wind now in Santo Domingo
img src="
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
She's gonna be a tropical depression now, lol.
actually, NOW, they will say her circulation is open :)
rrrrrggrggrggg
1113. nigel20
05L/TS/E
MARK
17.27N/71.44W
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
img src =http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm1.GIF


You have to copy that code, clicking first on the Image button and pasting that code in there...

Then click on Post Comment...

But, don't give up, keep on trying...
reminant low..lol
1118. centex
Message to new posters. 1) Read the blog entry your posting to. 2) Read the latest NHC dicussion on system your interested in. 3) Look at sat loops on that system.

Than ask questions.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
She's gonna be a tropical depression now, lol.


Lol..If that's the case, I'll step away from tropical weather for a while. LOL.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i seem to have forgotten how to post images can some one assist?


you need to have a upload page for your photos, for you upload the photos that you want....... do you have one?
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


1. Solar flares can cause radio blackouts (on the day side)

2. They can fire CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) which causes Geomagnetic Storms, and this causes auroras

3. The strongest CMEs can temporary disrupt satellites and possibly, blackouts on earth
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?
Quoting robj144:


You a physics major?


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P
1123. MTWX
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like gettin in shape...


Almost looks like she came to a stop and is contimplating just going back east from this loop!! That would be something to see wouldn't it!
1124. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P


I have a Ph. D. in it. What is your field?
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/
Eye?? :-p

Quoting JRRP:
gusty wind now in Santo Domingo


where?
1128. GetReal


I would not be surprised if RECON finds a stronger TS Emily, 60-65 mph. It appears that the COC is directly under the CDO.... Emily is going to take advantage of the DMAX.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p

there's something in the right one ...lol!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p

Nice updrafts developing around the eastern quadrant.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p



I thought this was a Jason post just reading "Eye??", although it would've been more like: "EYE!!!!!!!!!!"
Quoting Slamguitar:


I thought this was a Jason post just reading "Eye??", although it would've been more like: "EYE!!!!!!!!!!"


Lol...Yeah, I was definitely joking.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/

no it didn't well kinda but further West and North the ridge still pussing W and S
1134. MTWX
People of North Alabama need to be alert!
Link

These storms are cookin right along!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nice updrafts developing around the eastern quadrant.


I'd actually put the center very close to that circular ring. We'll see what recon says. I still say Emily is stronger than earlier.
Bluestorm5, I don't think you have anything to worry about that far inland. If we in NC get anything at all (Big If) it will probably be a Hatteras brush by which usually means a beautiful day that far inland due to subsistence. But of course, noone really can tell for sure that far out so keep monitoring the storm.
1137. centex
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/
yes we could, but at this point late.
Quoting QPhysFTW:


You want to dig a rabbit hole? I've got a pretty big shovel. :P I could seriously dive pretty far into this, but I doubt this blog is the place for that discussion. Originally, I was going stick to a brief outline, but that proved impossible. I can post a brief-ish discussion on my own blog, though. I'll post here when it's done.
I would love to hear your thoughts since you are studying this now. I suspect it has something to do with string, extra dimensions, and the 5th force.But yes this may not be the time, ......... BUT it's more interestng than these Jason debates.
Recon descending.
I just noticed that the GFS didn't shift east it just split tropical storm emily into 2 areas of surface vorticity, one over south florida and one ne of bahamas. GFS does not have any handle on emily after hispanola
1141. MTWX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALC077-079-083-089-040515-
/O.CON.KHUN.SV.W.0258.000000T0000Z-110804T0515Z/
LAUDERDALE AL-LAWRENCE AL-LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL-
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MADISON...LIMESTONE...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
MERIDIANVILLE TO 19 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROGERSVILLE...RED BANK...ATHENS...CAPSHAW...FRENCH MILL...
NORMAL...RIPLEY...TANNER...HUNTSVILLE...REDSTONE ARSENAL AND MADISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM METAL FENCES AND HIGH OBJECTS
SUCH AS TREES. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

you know there was a wave and low that passed us a few days ago and if i recall it travelled in the same path emily is going mmmmmm makes me thinks *scrath head*
Quoting centex:
yes we could, but at this point late.


I like it!
1144. wxhatt
Quoting HydeandSeek:
Hi, I'm a first time poster...so go easy on me please. I've lurked around on this site for years and I always follow the Hmmm Hmmm colorful discussions with a great deal of interest. I live on the pamlico sound in NC. This storm makes me a bit nervous. If I lived on the east coast of Florida I would be even more nervous! I think there is a good chance ya'll might get smacked with a strengthing system after Emily leaves the islands. And if the models are overestimating the timing of that eastward turn then we here on the NC banks may have something to worry about as well. I've just seen it happen too many times. We stick out like a sore thumb and systems coming off the east coast of Florida tend to gain strength over the gulf stream and brush right over us. My daughter is named Emily and well if she is any indication I am expecting this storm to be tenacious and full of surprises! LOL


I know, I remember Emily (1993). Quite the storm!!
Quoting MTWX:

Almost looks like she came to a stop and is contimplating just going back east from this loop!! That would be something to see wouldn't it!


Yeap, seems like Emily is experiencing anomally times...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Yeah, I was definitely joking.


Guys... Jason has a Serious Mental Disorder... Can we please stop making fun of him?
Quoting HydeandSeek:
Bluestorm5, I don't think you have anything to worry about that far inland. If we in NC get anything at all (Big If) it will probably be a Hatteras brush by which usually means a beautiful day that far inland due to subsistence. But of course, noone really can tell for sure that far out so keep monitoring the storm.
well, I was hoping for some rain here. Filming the storm is also my hobby, so I was actually hoping for weather action... but I hate it for Haiti to get hit by this system through :\
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?


Not at this time, the sun is climbing out from a deep solar minimum that lasted from 2006 to 2009. It takes time for the sun to get from Min to Max. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is predicting solar max in May 2013 with a Sunspot Number of 90 (weaker than the Y2K solar max).
1149. 7544
with that specail update at 1145 pm could we watches for so fla as early as 5am hope it was a real one lol
1151. JRRP
Quoting lordhuracan01:


where?

really nice gusty winds in Santo Domingo Dominican Republic
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?
it happens next year 2012 late fall early winter for peak then slow drop in activity after that we should be back in the cave man days by then


lol
maybe winds up to 60 mph at 2am
1155. hcubed
Looks like the posters that were putting out their false models have been replaced with blank space.

Thanks, Admin...
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Guys... Jason has a Serious Mental Disorder... Can we please stop making fun of him?
No he doesn't.

*Back to topic*.
is she going north now?
1161. centex
I'm thinking the cuban mountains will be the problem for this system.
1162. 7544
Quoting hunkerdown:
is a WOW in order ?!?!?


thought i repost for the night shift coming on


hunkerdown 12:46 AM EDT on August 04, 2011

+0













Quoting hurricane23:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINT WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS HAS PUSHED
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL FORCE
INTO ALL OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE ZONES
OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINLY HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST DUE TO THE
TRACK SHIFTING WEST WHICH NOW COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO AT
THIS TIME ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON EMILY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AND THE LOCAL FORECAST FROM US FOR THIS WEEKEND, IN CASE
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD.
Evening everybody

I see recon is heading back out


Quoting QPhysFTW:


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.
Feeding from ITCZ WV is making it healthy...

Quoting hcubed:
Looks like the posters that were putting out their false models have been replaced with blank space.

Thanks, Admin...
empty space created

I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No he doesn't.

*Back to topic*.


Anyway.. MH09, Do you think the 06z and the 5 am cone will shift west? or will it stay at its current positon?




1173. robj144
Quoting FrankZapper:
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.


Ok... does that apply to current physicists as well?
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
is she going north now?


no doesn't seem that way
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>
1177. 7544
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Anyway.. MH09, Do you think the 06z and the 5 am cone will shift west? or will it stay at its current positon?






this might help

EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...
Quoting FrankZapper:
I would love to hear your thoughts since you are studying this now. I suspect it has something to do with string, extra dimensions, and the 5th force.But yes this may not be the time, ......... BUT it's more interestng than these Jason debates.


Ooohhh...string theory, not my area of expertise. I do nuclear magnetic resonance, which is spectroscopy that doesn't requires much quantum mechanics, but not anything at that level of physics. I do have good familiarity with some of the erroneous concepts many laymen have about quantum mechanics. (For anyone wondering, you can't do a quantum dance to cure your cold.)

Unfortunately, at the rate I'm typing my blog post up, though, Emily will be past Hisponola by the time I finish :P. I have to check out now, but I'll try to finish it up tomorrow evening. Guess I'm not being a very good lurker, lol.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Either way, you should give him the benefit of the doubt and just ignore him.
For those unaware, it is very easy to ignore a user, even without the ignore button. I don't have a single user on my ignore list and yet somehow I manage to get along just fine with the hundreds of useless and/or obnoxious posts which fill up the blog everyday.

It's not rocket science...
I think the NHC will initialize watches or warnings for areas of Florida IF it (Florida) is still a threat, and Emily makes a passage across Haiti without dissipating (which isn't likely).
1181. emguy
Quoting MississippiWx:


Are the transparent barbs a location of bad data...reporting issues?
Quoting JRRP:

really nice gusty winds in Santo Domingo Dominican Republic


ok, here in azua, we have rain without wind since 10:30 to now, i think this will going be worse with this thing down there....
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


In my opinon
1184. wxhatt
Quoting HydeandSeek:
I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.


Do you remember Charlie? He went up Pamlico Sound.
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>
IMO = In My Opinion.

Some similar ones...

JMO = Just My Opinion
IMHO = In My Honest Opinion
1187. robj144
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


I believe it's a technical meteorological term meaning "In My Opinion". :)
Thinking that the LLC is just south of Isla Beata, and moving West around 8kt...
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


In my opinion. Boy, am I on late tonight.
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


IMO means in my opinion.
IMHO means in my honest opinion.
00Z HWRF is back east somewhat bringing Emily through the Northern Bahamas by 60-72 hours.
Quoting FrankZapper:
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.

"Shaking hands? Well...that's not saying much for my wife is it?" LOL! Classic!
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


In my opinon


Ah thanks!!
Tropical Storm Emily is moving very slow
1195. robj144
Quoting Hurricanes12:


IMO means in my opinion.
IMHO means in my honest opinion.


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those unaware, it is very easy to ignore a user, even without the ignore button. I don't have a single user on my ignore list and yet somehow I manage to get along just fine with the hundreds of useless and/or obnoxious posts which fill up the blog everyday.

It's not rocket science...


simple but effective steps

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
00Z HWRF is back east somewhat bringing Emily through the Northern Bahamas by 60-72 hours.
link?
Wow... models shifted East i guess..
Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
either one works, doesn't really matter lol

back to the tropics
Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.


Ha, I think it could mean either one. ;)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.


It was the end of the discussion until you chimed in. stop it!
Quoting weatherman12345:
link?


Link
Quoting HydeandSeek:
I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.
yea, it's nothing but sands on the ground.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.
yes, good post.
1207. centex
Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
In my shaky opinion IMSO is never said.
URNT15 KNHC 040511
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 09 20110804
050200 1703N 06846W 5575 05002 //// -019 //// 200020 021 033 004 01
050230 1703N 06848W 5792 04687 //// -009 //// 205022 024 033 004 01
050300 1704N 06851W 6022 04386 //// -002 //// 194032 035 034 003 01
050330 1705N 06853W 6284 04046 //// +012 //// 173039 040 034 000 05
050400 1705N 06855W 6556 03702 //// +037 //// 165041 041 032 002 01
050430 1706N 06857W 6813 03387 //// +060 //// 154038 039 033 001 05
050500 1707N 06859W 7077 03072 //// +078 //// 147036 038 034 004 01
050530 1707N 06901W 7329 02779 //// +096 //// 147033 035 035 006 01
050600 1708N 06903W 7594 02480 //// +112 //// 144033 033 035 006 01
050630 1709N 06905W 7855 02190 //// +126 //// 145033 034 036 005 01
050700 1709N 06908W 8125 01903 //// +143 //// 146033 033 037 006 01
050730 1710N 06910W 8392 01619 //// +159 //// 138030 030 038 006 01
050800 1710N 06912W 8439 01561 //// +160 //// 138029 030 039 007 01
050830 1711N 06913W 8425 01577 //// +159 //// 140030 030 039 006 01
050900 1711N 06915W 8428 01572 //// +159 //// 138030 030 036 007 05
050930 1712N 06917W 8428 01570 0110 +159 +029 137030 030 040 006 00
051000 1712N 06919W 8428 01569 0107 +157 +092 136030 030 039 007 00
051030 1712N 06921W 8433 01566 0113 +151 +096 137030 031 039 007 00
051100 1712N 06923W 8425 01574 0115 +148 +100 137031 031 039 008 00
051130 1712N 06925W 8425 01572 0115 +144 +103 135032 033 038 007 00
$$
Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
MH09, do you think models will shift east?

This entire model dilemma is so confusing.
Quoting robj144:


Ok... does that apply to current physicists as well?
Absolutely.
1213. Seawall
Looking at the imagery, and just not seeing that North turn yet.. might be me, but still seeing West; maybe slightly north of West, but no definite turn yet.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, I'm pretty sure he does. Taz does too.

Either way, you should give him the benefit of the doubt and just ignore him.

Yes he does have problems, I agree and this blog is probably the only true focus he has and it does not hurt anyone. Also, A LOT of the annoying posts in the past few days ...maybe a week were NOT from Jason...some were...but someone is pretending to be Jason on this blog...IT IS OBVIOUS...and is TRULY trying to get Jason off of this blog and it is working. Jason has a clone ...lol..that is working hard to make him look bad. BUT remember the blog is therapeutic and I for one commend him...for continuing to try to fit in...he might have "problems" however he is VERY intelligent and this blog is his way to socialize, for individuals with his condition have serious problems with socialization.

Asperger syndrome or Asperger's syndrome or Asperger disorder ( /ˈɑspərɡərz/[1] or /ˈæspərɡərz/[2]) is an autism spectrum disorder that is characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

Also I hope anyone in the path of Emily...wherever that may be...is fully aware and has taken precautions.
1216. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Ooohhh...string theory, not my area of expertise. I do nuclear magnetic resonance, which is spectroscopy that doesn't requires much quantum mechanics, but not anything at that level of physics. I do have good familiarity with some of the erroneous concepts many laymen have about quantum mechanics. (For anyone wondering, you can't do a quantum dance to cure your cold.)

Unfortunately, at the rate I'm typing my blog post up, though, Emily will be past Hisponola by the time I finish :P. I have to check out now, but I'll try to finish it up tomorrow evening. Guess I'm not being a very good lurker, lol.


The non-physicists are sometimes exposed this as it has medical applications - the MRI which magnetic resonance imaging. They took out the "nuclear" part so it doesn't sound that scary, which I think is funny.
Quoting TomTaylor:
IMO = In My Opinion.

Some similar ones...

JMO = Just My Opinion
IMHO = In My Honest Opinion
IMHO is usually "in my humble opinion"
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
00Z HWRF is back east somewhat bringing Emily through the Northern Bahamas by 60-72 hours.


New it...GFS/Nogaps were already trending eastward. A more poleward movement appears likely in my view as its now more verically aligned.

Have a great night
She only comes out at night...
the lean and hungry type...


Nice Dmax spread. Some new convection on the NW quad sugests some motion...in that direction... but there must have been a center reformation during the afternoon. CMC 00Z global shunts the vorticity well to the N and ofshore while tracking a sfc low across central cuba N into south Fl then offshore to the NE. All this to say that there isn't yet a model solution to believe.
1221. robj144
Quoting hunkerdown:
IMHO is usually "in my humble opinion"


See, I was right. :)
Quoting hurricane23:


New it...GFS/Nogaps were already trending eastward. A more poleward movement appears likely in my view as it now more verically aligned.

Have a great night
That seems to be the consensus. Btw almost all the dynamic models so far seem tightly clustered on this solution with the aid of the Gulfstream flight data.
Quoting muddertracker:
Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
can't wait be a whole lot quieter and civil then till 3pm until 11pm
Quoting Hurricanes12:
MH09, do you think models will shift east?

This entire model dilemma is so confusing.
I don't think they'll shift in any direction to be honest...they're pretty good where they are.
Quoting Seawall:
Looking at the imagery, and just not seeing that North turn yet.. might be me, but still seeing West; maybe slightly north of West, but no definite turn yet.


Still not much movement at all. Just a drift here or there for now.
1227. nigel20
IMOFO
= its my own freaking opinion
LOL
JUST ADDING MY TIDBIT
Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00
is recon in the system yet?
1233. 7544
wow
wunderkid you still here?
Still got people trying to forecast models on here...

The pattern isn't going to support anything digging too deep into Florida. A brief landfall in South Florida/skirting along the coast solution is possible, if not staying completely out to sea.

Everything changes though if Emily opens up into a wave. At that point, it's a moot point as it won't be anything significant.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00

sorry for the newbie question but what does that mean?
Quoting nigel20:


Great satellite pic... looks to be forming convection on the north and south sides of the center (perhaps NW and SW)... that is where I believe the center to be.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.
Headed for the center...

1241. JRRP
Quoting lordhuracan01:


ok, here in azua, we have rain without wind since 10:30 to now, i think this will going be worse with this thing down there....

amigo... aqui el viento esta pitaando...
Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?
i think we are going to see watch and warning for the east coast by friday
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
wunderkid you still here?


yep still here boy I tell you that coffee is doin very very good for me
1245. nigel20
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Great satellite pic... looks to be forming convection on the north and south sides of the center (perhaps NW and SW)... that is where I believe the center to be.

Yes, Emily is looking pretty good.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?
no, you shouldn't get any rain. Greensboro is 300 miles inland, so it's not even close.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.
That, and flight level winds were lower than the SFMR readings. But nevertheless, they're finding some pretty good winds in the northeastern semicircle.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?


Check on the sixth or seventh. At this point no one can say anything for sure as to exactly where Emily will go.

Night all.
Quoting robj144:


First of all, the coriolis force is greatest at the poles, not at the equator, which is why storms do not and can not form near the equator. Second of all, the coriolis force is responsible for the initial spin-up, but the rest of the angular momentum comes from the storm itself. Third of all, if there is some loss of angular momentum from the Earth due to the storm initially, the coriolis force in the southern is the opposite direction, so theoretically they would mostly cancel each other out. Lastly, the mass of a storm is so small that the change in a day would be far less than a massive earth quake.


Aw, missed this earlier. A few things, then I'll really go to bed...I think.

The Coriolis force is not a momentum, it's, well, a force. In fact, it's a fictitious force, meaning that we only experience it because we're using the a reference frame affixed to the Earth, which rotates. But that aside, the force can be a mechanism through which angular momentum can transfer; indeed, for a hurricane that's spinning up with the Coriolis force acting in the way you describe exerts a torque on the air (kind of, although I'm sure the nonrigidity of the air comes into play in weird ways), which is the time derivative of the angular momentum vector. So, the storm starts spinning, and "gains" angular momentum with time. That's why I said the angular momentum of the storm is coupled to Earth's by the Coriolis force.

But this wouldn't be "cancelled" by the fact that air flows in opposite direction on the southern side of a storm versus the northern side. Angular momentum is (radius vector) cross (linear momentum vector), and as you look at each point in the storm, you find that the angular momentum adds constructively in all sectors. So I stand by what I say: unless the air is connected so a high pressure somewhere counterrotates faster or something, the Earth must (probably imperceptibly) change its rotation rate.

I look forward to being proven wrong when I check in tomorrow. Thanks for an enjoyable first night of non-lurking, all.
Recon found a weird pressure drop as they are still approaching the center. Pressure back on the rise as they are still headed for the center... Strange.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That, and flight level winds were lower than the SFMR readings. But nevertheless, they're finding some pretty good winds in the northeastern semicircle.


06Z Models still Running?
a direct hit on jamaica looking real by each hour.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.


Yeah, I saw another observation with 56kt winds, also flagged for suspect data (likely rain contamination). I did notice a tiny pin dot area of -80C cloud tops in that general region... which would likely bring down some of those gusts
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I know this, i try to use the blog tools but he finds his way around that with new accounts, its not the fact that i find his post annoying, its just the fact that im scared for his well being. He is what you call a self destructive personality and he cant help himself.


We can try another aproach... one that would be beneficial
There are ways for those kind of personalities... Every day we encounter them, at work, within the family etc.
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


06Z Models still Running?
They'll be in in about an hour.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Recon found a weird pressure drop as they are still approaching the center. Pressure back on the rise as they are still headed for the center... Strange.


IDK... could have been passing through the MLC
1258. emguy
Should note that Emily looks great on satellite, but the M.O. remains the same for another night...she is not stacked. The low level center is toward the western edge of convection and there is once again mid level vorticity to the east. In general, if you took a paper towel roll and angled it at 45 degrees, you might have a fair demonstration of Emily's circularion looks like as a rotating column in the atmosphere.
Quoting muddertracker:
Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
lol
.
.
There's that wind again, blowing west!
I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.
Quoting weatherganny:

Yes he does have problems, I agree and this blog is probably the only true focus he has and it does not hurt anyone. Also, A LOT of the annoying posts in the past few days ...maybe a week were NOT from Jason...some were...but someone is pretending to be Jason on this blog...IT IS OBVIOUS...and is TRULY trying to get Jason off of this blog and it is working. Jason has a clone ...lol..that is working hard to make him look bad. BUT remember the blog is therapeutic and I for one commend him...for continuing to try to fit in...he might have "problems" however he is VERY intelligent and this blog is his way to socialize, for individuals with his condition have serious problems with socialization.

Asperger syndrome or Asperger's syndrome or Asperger disorder ( /ˈɑspərɡərz/[1] or /ˈæspərɡərz/[2]) is an autism spectrum disorder that is characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

Also I hope anyone in the path of Emily...wherever that may be...is fully aware and has taken precautions.
Maybe WU bloggers need to talk to him as a human. I tried it late last PM and it went well until I asked him if there were impostors. He abruptly cut off the conversation, which POd me cause I was trying to help him set the record straight. Go figure.
Quoting emguy:
Should note that Emily looks great on satellite, but the M.O. remains the same for another night...she is not stacked. The low level center is toward the western edge of convection and there is once again mid level vorticity to the east. In general, if you took a paper towel roll and angled it at 45 degrees, you might have a fair demonstration of Emily's circularion looks like as a rotating column in the atmosphere.


Yeah, but the 500mb vort is a lot closer than it has been. Also the low level center is fully embedded within the convection this time, as opposed to last night when it was only half-way covered.
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.
1264. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Aw, missed this earlier. A few things, then I'll really go to bed...I think.

The Coriolis force is not a momentum, it's, well, a force. In fact, it's a fictitious force, meaning that we only experience it because we're using the a reference frame affixed to the Earth, which rotates. But that aside, the force can be a mechanism through which angular momentum can transfer; indeed, for a hurricane that's spinning up with the Coriolis force acting in the way you describe exerts a torque on the air (kind of, although I'm sure the nonrigidity of the air comes into play in weird ways), which is the time derivative of the angular momentum vector. So, the storm starts spinning, and "gains" angular momentum with time. That's why I said the angular momentum of the storm is coupled to Earth's by the Coriolis force.

But this wouldn't be "cancelled" by the fact that air flows in opposite direction on the southern side of a storm versus the northern side. Angular momentum is (radius vector) cross (linear momentum vector), and as you look at each point in the storm, you find that the angular momentum adds constructively in all sectors. So I stand by what I say: unless the air is connected so a high pressure somewhere counterrotates faster or something, the Earth must (probably imperceptibly) change its rotation rate.

I look forward to being proven wrong when I check in tomorrow. Thanks for an enjoyable first night of non-lurking, all.


For clockwise rotations, r cross v is into the plane, for counter-clockwise rotations r cross v is out of the plane, so what is it that your saying?


DISCLAIMER ... THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. THEY REQUIRE INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
Quoting JRRP:

amigo... aqui el viento esta pitaando...


Estas al Sur de RD?

Live in the S?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
1268. Seawall
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I dont want to get banned... Link


Anyway.... Emily is moving WNW


Well, I'm sure I'm behind now, haven't refreshed the blog, but that painful video took several minutes. It is clear that this young man needs help. It is NOT clear to me that he has Asburgers, I think it is worse.
What is clear to me is that he doesn't need to be on here giving advice that people might heed; that's not his job; however, I agree now with you that he needs help. He needs supervision, he needs someone with him at all times, and I Hope and Pray that Jason gets the help he needs. I hope no one here, including myself, has added to his mental state. He really needs help.
1269. emguy
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but the 500mb vort is a lot closer than it has been. Also the low level center is fully embedded within the convection this time, as opposed to last night when it was only half-way covered.


I think ya got a valid statement right there...
no no no no east cant travel against steering currents that would be one of the wierdest things or even feaky for me to see.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe WU bloggers need to talk to him as a human. I tried it late last PM and it went well until I asked him if there were impostors. He abruptly cut off the conversation, which POd me cause I was trying to help him set the record straight. Go figure.


He may not like direct communication, and it may be important for him to think he has friends on the blog, idk, however I think we as human beings need to be open to his personality and maybe just take notice if we think "maybe " it is not him posting something. I really do not have the answer but something is not right. I do know it can be aggravating too though, for those trying to analyze the latest developments in the tropics.
Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.


Well, he's the out to sea pusher, you're the landfall pusher. I'm going to go right in the middle with the consensus. :-P
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.



You meant a weaker storm would go farther west, not east. I think.
Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
I'm not sure if he does or not, I know he does do some work over at TAFB, or at least he used to.
Emily lookin a little scarier...
Wow these thunderstorms must have intense updrafts and downdrafts, pressure and wind direction hopping around.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, he's the out to sea pusher, you're the landfall pusher. I'm going to go right in the middle with the consensus. :-P


Great idea!! :)
Quoting billsfaninsofla:



You meant a weaker storm would go farther west, not east. I think.
I meant like if this is stronger than the initialization then it would go farther east than the models currently depict. Sorry, I guess I wasn't very clear.
1279. Seawall
After all of that, which direction is Emily going now?
Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
If you're talking about who I think you are, yes he does have a degree.
Quoting weatherganny:


He may not like direct communication, and it may be important for him to think he has friends on the blog, idk, however I think we as human beings need to be open to his personality and maybe just take notice if we think "maybe " it is not him posting something. I really do not have the answer but something is not right. I do know it can be aggravating too though, for those trying to analyze the latest developments in the tropics.


We've never had problems with Jason until this year. I agree that someone is posing as him and trying to make him look worse. It's most likely the same person who poses as JFV.
ADT raw T's up to 3.6
Quoting reedzone:


Great idea!! :)


And I'm definitely joking. I respect your opinion and I agree with it on Emily.

Edit: However, I'm just a tad further east than you with Emily.
maybe tropical storm Emily maybe have winds over 60 mph
Recon is measuring some crazy intense rainfall rates as they approach the center. Some very strong convection firing right now. One reading was 3.23 in/hour. wow!
¿Adónde es que está pitando el viento?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Recon is measuring some crazy intense rainfall rates as they approach the center. Some very strong convection firing right now. One reading was 3.23 in/hour. wow!
give me that link will ya!
Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
maybe tropical storm Emily maybe have winds over 60 mph


I dont think so.
000
URNT15 KNHC 040551
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 13 20110804
054200 1658N 07114W 8396 01577 //// +119 //// 031013 017 /// /// 05
054230 1658N 07115W 8387 01602 0091 +159 +144 278005 015 /// /// 03
054300 1657N 07117W 8442 01539 0076 +178 +145 241018 020 043 016 03
054330 1655N 07118W 8442 01544 0080 +172 +148 243015 015 032 008 00
054400 1654N 07119W 8428 01559 0077 +180 +152 233013 013 021 003 00
054430 1653N 07120W 8428 01555 0070 +181 +156 218013 013 017 004 00
054500 1652N 07122W 8430 01551 0067 +180 +161 219016 017 022 004 00
054530 1651N 07123W 8427 01551 0064 +179 +165 219018 019 025 005 03
054600 1650N 07124W 8429 01546 0063 +177 +169 230020 020 026 005 00
054630 1648N 07124W 8426 01547 0059 +182 +171 235020 021 028 006 00
054700 1647N 07125W 8428 01547 0069 +169 //// 237020 022 028 003 05
054730 1646N 07126W 8426 01547 0062 +177 +173 240021 022 030 003 00
054800 1645N 07127W 8431 01545 0070 +167 //// 243020 021 026 006 01
054830 1644N 07129W 8428 01547 0061 +182 +172 248020 020 024 001 00
054900 1644N 07130W 8430 01547 0061 +181 +172 265018 019 025 002 00
054930 1642N 07131W 8426 01552 0062 +182 +173 272017 019 024 000 00
055000 1641N 07132W 8430 01547 0062 +180 +176 270020 020 022 001 00
055030 1640N 07133W 8429 01550 0063 +180 +178 274019 020 022 000 00
055100 1639N 07135W 8433 01547 0065 +177 //// 279019 021 024 000 01
055130 1638N 07136W 8434 01546 0073 +166 //// 275021 023 028 005 01
$$
;
Quoting MississippiWx:


And I'm definitely joking. I respect your opinion and I agree with it on Emily.

Edit: However, I'm just a tad further east than you with Emily.


I don't disagree with that, it may very well stay off the coastline. I just don't agree with a straight poleward motion as Adrian is pushing.. Sorry, not in August.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.
Look at the rain rates and you'll know why ;~)
Will this continue to move west in the next 12 hours?
which way is she headin
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.


Lets see if theres any vortex left after its encounter with DR/cuba. Even if it gives sfl a close shave most of the real weather with this tropical cyclone is to the north and east so not much across the mainland.
1297. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Estas al Sur de RD?

Live in the S?

exactamente en Santo Domingo
ha calmado un poco la brisa
Quoting robj144:


For clockwise rotations, r cross v is into the plane, for counter-clockwise rotations r cross v is out of the plane, so what is it that your saying?


Yes, but the rotation about a storm is all counterclockwise (NH). So I guess I'm saying that the Earth needn't rotate at a different rate if there's a high pressure that suffers an increase of clockwise swirling air that might counterbalances the net magnitude increase of L pointing into the Earth's surface by the storm. But that's only one stab at a mechanism.

But again, there's a whole host of simplifications I guess I'm making too. Like applying rigid body mechanics to fluids. Still, angular momentum is always conserved, and I'm curious as to how that exactly comes about. But I feel safe in saying that it CANNOT cancel out within the storm itself.

I, too, find it amusing that they chopped the 'N' off of 'NMRI'. But then it makes me a little sad, because then I consider the state of science literacy in this country...
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
give me that link will ya!


Link

And tons of more links to all kinds of great sites here like satellite imagery, radars, computer models, etc.
1300. GetReal
Based on the data coming in so far from recon, the center of Emily is not directly under the heaviest convection. The center is also moving, and is to the west, or wnw of the previous position.
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
which way is she headin


Hard to know without a center fix.
whose got the 2 am advisory?
1303. sarepa
I live in Santo Domingo. What I don't get is, if there is so much cloud coverage on the Satellite over us, why isen't it raining? It's just cloudy over here.
Quoting Derlong54:
¿Adónde es que está pitando el viento?


Santo domingo and translate the spanish...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 040556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY SPREADING INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

Still moving W!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)<br>SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.


But look at the 1009 mb pressure, something does not compute.


Bedtime.... Good night...
Wind shifts I'm seeing would suggest either this is messy again or recon missed the center...
2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 4
Location: 17.1°N 71.3°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Wind shifts I'm seeing would suggest either this is messy again or recon missed the center...


Looks like they missed the center.
Quoting Seawall:


It's pretty clear that he doesn't have Aspergers; it looks like a manic depressive disorder to me, and without his meds, it gets worse. Talking won't help him; he's also obsessed with this blog, and he's also obsessed with posting something as quickly as he can, for recognition. It's sad, but it's not ours or mine to cure. Just the way it is. It's for Jason's family to help him; we simply can't. All we will do is enable him.


Look, if you have a burden for Jason then start a "Jason" blog. Stop distracting people who come here to talk tropics with off-topic posts.
1313. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Yes, but the rotation about a storm is all counterclockwise (NH). So I guess I'm saying that the Earth needn't rotate at a different rate if there's a high pressure that suffers an increase of clockwise swirling air that might counterbalances the net magnitude increase of L pointing into the Earth's surface by the storm. But that's only one stab at a mechanism.

But again, there's a whole host of simplifications I guess I'm making too. Like applying rigid body mechanics to fluids. Still, angular momentum is always conserved, and I'm curious as to how that exactly comes about. But I feel safe in saying that it CANNOT cancel out within the storm itself.

I, too, find it amusing that they chopped the 'N' off of 'NMRI'. But then it makes me a little sad, because then I consider the state of science literacy in this country...


Yes, but in the different hemispheres, low pressure systems rotate in opposite directions. So low and high pressure systems rotate opposite of one another in each hemisphere and thus produce opposite angular momentum vectors.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Wind shifts I'm seeing would suggest either this is messy again or recon missed the center...


00Z gfdl shifts futher eastward...
1315. GetReal
Recon has found west winds due south of the southern tip of Hispaniola. It appears that Emily is almost due west of the previous position.
when do the latest modles come out
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Wind shifts I'm seeing would suggest either this is messy again or recon missed the center...
The lightest west winds were located in an area of a 1009mb pressure reading then it was lower as they moved towards the southwest.

Weak circulation with surface trough extending towards the southwest?

Like you said, they could of missed the circulation but the wind shift sorta suggests otherwise.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY SPREADING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...

2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 4
Location: 17.1°N 71.3°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Quoting hurricane23:


00Z gfdl shifts futher eastward...
Seems like the models now have a very tight consensus of coming through the Bahamas and missing Florida to the east. Depending on the strength of the storm at that time, we might only feel very limited effects. I have confidence in these model runs as they have the Gulfstream data in them and all seem to be pointing towards the same solution.
Quoting JRRP:

exactamente en Santo Domingo
ha calmado un poco la brisa



Well, you're in the South.... in the capital...

Bueno, pues estas al Sur... Hace tiempo q. no voy para alla... a la capital... Una vez estuve tambien en San Pedro de Macoris...


Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
when do the latest modles come out


Link

Try this.
TS Emily should just be dismantled. It's giving me a headache.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks like they missed the center.
yeah lowest pressure reading was in 20 knots of SW winds... I'm pretty sure they went too far south... Doh. Oh well. I doubt it has strengthened much since the last fix a few hours ago. Still getting sheared pretty strongly.
Quoting sarepa:
I live in Santo Domingo. What I don't get is, if there is so much cloud coverage on the Satellite over us, why isen't it raining? It's just cloudy over here.


Depends if you're in an area where you are receiving high top clouds or if you are inside the Storms core...
1326. GetReal
my best guess right now is 17.1n and 71.5w on the center of emily.
20 kts isnt that strong lol
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
yeah lowest pressure reading was in 20 knots of SW winds... I'm pretty sure they went too far south... Doh. Oh well. I doubt it has strengthened much since the last fix a few hours ago. Still getting sheared pretty strongly.


Emily's center is very close to land. I'm really not sure how close recon is allowed to get to Hispaniola before they have to change directions. I hope that doesn't limit our information.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Look at the rain rates and you'll know why ;~)
yea makes sense.

idk why they don't put the little asterisks next to it though, if that is the case.
This entire model watching is getting stupid. I do not think the models will get a good handle on this until after it passes hispanola. For this reason anyone in the 3 day cone should remain vigilant despite latest models moving east

Edit:HWRF and CMC have been most consistent over the last couple of model cycles
Quoting MississippiWx:


Emily's center is very close to land. I'm really not sure how close recon is allowed to get to Hispaniola before they have to change directions. I hope that doesn't limit our information.
Oh very interesting point! that makes a lot of sense after looking at the geography of DR and where the center is located. Thanks for bringing this up.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea makes sense.

idk why they don't put the little asterisks next to it though, if that is the case.
I agree. The flagging seems random at times.
Quoting Twinkster:
This entire model watching is getting stupid. I do not think the models will get a good handle on this until after it passes hispanola. For this reason anyone in the 3 day cone should remain vigilant despite latest models moving east


Very good post right here folks! You're right, we should have a much clearer picture on what Emily is gonna do after it crosses the gap between Haiti and Cuba. It's best we just be patient and watch the storm. However I must say, people in Volusia County, FL are already preparing for Emily just in case she heads off track, according to the news.
Quoting Twinkster:
This entire model watching is getting stupid. I do not think the models will get a good handle on this until after it passes hispanola. For this reason anyone in the 3 day cone should remain vigilant despite latest models moving east


Looks like Models don't seem to work well with Invests, trop. waves and weak storms.... They are more accurate once it achieves Hurricane status... (That was the data that was feed into them)
Guy over at Storm2k is making some great pictures of recon obs over satellite photos. Here is one and it seems that recon found the center at some point with this windshift:

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Seems like the models now have a very tight consensus of coming through the Bahamas and missing Florida to the east. Depending on the strength of the storm at that time, we might only feel very limited effects. I have confidence in these model runs as they have the Gulfstream data in them and all seem to be pointing towards the same solution.


Breezy squally weather at best. Most of the heavy should stay over water. Assuming that Emily survives the interaction with the high mountainous terrain, the subtropical high should build back in, but only temporarily and weakly. This will allow a WNW to NW movement from the 48-96 hour period. However, if Emily gets significantly stronger than expected, a more northerly track is likely as the ridge is not very strong in between the two subtropical highs. Combined with a strengthening subtropical high to the east of Emily should start to steer the tropical cyclone away from land/florida.
1337. emguy
Folks...I wanted to take a moment to touch on the "synoptic" end of Emily. The focus on these storms always seems to be in the models and the model trends. Okay, good, but maybe it's a good time to break things down another way:

1.) If the storm follows the current path through Haiti, the passage, then East Cuba, then that is not necessarily good if it does so at a decent clip. First Haiti and a brief path over mountains yes...then into an opening between Cuba. In the passage, the geography of the mountains over Cuba, and haiti will allow for an area of angular momentum. Add to it that Emily typically has a SW oriented trough as a tail that would focus completely over water. In 1998 Hurricane George did this and got back together. I wanna say Dennis was somewhat similar in 2005. In other words, she'd strengthen there then pass over Cuba and spend what is now what we could consider a limited amount of lime over land and a maximum amount of time over water before approaching FL. Not good.
2.) Other Option, continue west and shoot the gap between Cuba and Jamaica. Not good either. Emily would hit what is typically known as the warmest water of the basin, then cross a short path of low elevation Cuba and enter the Keys area and extreme SE Gulf where water is extremely warm.
3.) Both those options are not good since the atmospheric support is improving...so lets go with considering option 3...reflective of Enresto in 2006 and Fay in 2008. Increased interaction with land and mountains, limited time over water to reassemble. The land intereaction is major with subtle track shifts, but leads to severe differences in intensities, landfall solutions and impacts.
4.) I personally hate storms that approach from this angle for one simple reason...with all the variables, one simple and very minor change/nudge/factor is the difference between a weak TS to a CAT 4 anywhere in SW or SE Florida. The impact is significantly different even if the path correction is not and that makes planning for a "potential something" a challange.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 17:15:19 N Lon : 71:23:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.8
Good night, night shift. See you on the flip side.
04/0545 UTC 17.1N 71.6W T3.0/3.0 EMILY -- Atlantic
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 06:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 5:41:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°59'N 71°13'W (16.9833N 71.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 130 miles (210 km) between the SE and SSE (146°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,470m (4,823ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 43kts (From the SE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 97 nautical miles (112 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 5:13:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) from the flight level center
Quoting robj144:


Yes, but in the different hemispheres, low pressure systems rotate in opposite directions. So low and high pressure systems rotate opposite of one another in each hemisphere and thus produce opposite angular momentum vectors.


Indeed, this is true if the storms were diametrically opposed on the Earth. When you consider storms at the same longitude the angular momentum vectors will not completely cancel, and result in a vector that points into the Earth.

So I guess I need to think bigger -- the whole atmosphere. Presumably, the angular momentum vector, integrated over the entire surface of the Earth, cancels out nearly completely. But my question dealt with the rapid spin up of a hurricane. Exactly where does this angular momentum come from, and what is its fate? If it comes from another part of the atmosphere, there has to be some physical mechanism belying the transfer process, like some fluid flow. Or, since it's the Coriolis force that exerts the torque, the storm picks up its angular momentum from the immense angular momentum of the Earth.

Seriously now, though, last post for me tonight. I'm zombifying out now. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and realize this made no sense whatsoever :P
Quoting extreme236:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 17:15:19 N Lon : 71:23:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.8


Probably went down because the overall cloud structure is a little less organized than earlier. However, Emily has instantly fired up convection again over the center. This is something she hasn't been doing.
Quoting sarepa:
I live in Santo Domingo. What I don't get is, if there is so much cloud coverage on the Satellite over us, why isen't it raining? It's just cloudy over here.

Because that cloudiness over us isn't convective yet, as most of rainy clouds are south of Santo Domingo, where I live too.
Looks like Emily has weakened after we expected her to have strengthened. Surprise surprise?

Damn I hate this system.

H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
1346. JRRP
voy apagar mi pc ..las rafagas de viento soplan con bastante fuerza..
see you tomorrow
00z ukmet has other plans hits extreme southern fl
1348. Drakoen
hmmm didn't think the circulation was that far south still....
Quoting JRRP:

amigo... aqui el viento esta pitaando...
Ten cuidao, u 2.....
1350. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like Emily has weakened after we expected her to have strengthened. Surprise surprise?

Damn I hate this system.

lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like Emily has weakened after we expected her to have strengthened. Surprise surprise?

Damn I hate this system.


Would make no sense at all. I'm ready for her to be dead.
1352. Seawall
Not to be redundant, but if anyone wants to learn all they can, go to this site and take the training videos thanks to the blogger this AM. They are incredible.
Link
Vortex message is pretty unimpressive.
1354. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ten cuidao, u 2.....

yes...esto me recuerda a Noel 2007
im sure there will be more surpises.
I still hold strong on my initial forecast, which I made this morning.

Tropical Storm Emily moves WNW as the weakness pulls it north. The a ridge will build back in for about 12-24 hours and steer Ems to South Florida, then either scraping or making landfall on the South Florida coastline. A shortwave trough diving south pulls Ems and recurves her around Melbourne or east of Melbourne, depending if she makes landfall, sharply recurves out to sea. As for the strength, I'm looking at least a strong TS near or landfall in Florida. Adrians forecast is also a very good possibility, but right now, until Ems makes her move WNW, I'm not buying a straight NW to NE movement right now. If she recurves, it will be dangerously close to Florida, enough to get watches and warnings.
Id say they can keep her at 45kts on the next advisory because of the SFMR, but its hard to ignore that the the flight level winds have consistently supported a slightly weaker system. Increasing pressure isn't good either.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Would make no sense at all. I'm ready for her to be dead.


Haha, yeah.. It's a confusing system.
1359. Drakoen
Based on the center fix Emily continues to move towards the west.
is emily still moving west according to recon's new center fix?
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Indeed, this is true if the storms were diametrically opposed on the Earth. When you consider storms at the same longitude the angular momentum vectors will not completely cancel, and result in a vector that points into the Earth.

So I guess I need to think bigger -- the whole atmosphere. Presumably, the angular momentum vector, integrated over the entire surface of the Earth, cancels out nearly completely. But my question dealt with the rapid spin up of a hurricane. Exactly where does this angular momentum come from, and what is its fate? If it comes from another part of the atmosphere, there has to be some physical mechanism belying the transfer process, like some fluid flow. Or, since it's the Coriolis force that exerts the torque, the storm picks up its angular momentum from the immense angular momentum of the Earth.

Seriously now, though, last post for me tonight. I'm zombifying out now. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and realize this made no sense whatsoever :P


Hi there, QPhysFTW. I'm not here to answer your questions, as I'm only in high school and haven't learned squat about what you guys are talking about.

Anyway, just wanted to comment and say keep up the questions, learning about this stuff and watching others discuss it on here is very interesting for me.

Too bad Levi and Drakoen left, they could probably contribute a lot to the discussion.

edit-guess drak is still here
Quoting Twinkster:
is emily still moving west according to recon's new center fix?

yes
Quoting extreme236:
Id say they can keep her at 45kts on the next advisory because of the SFMR, but its hard to ignore that the the flight level winds have consistently supported a slightly weaker system. Increasing pressure isn't good either.


The pressure is what has me scratching my head. Emily can kiss my a**.

I wonder if the overall broad structure of the 850mb vort has something to do with the pressure not being able to drop and the winds not being able to spin up more quickly?

Quoting Drakoen:
Based on the center fix Emily continues to move towards the west.


This is exactly why I'm against the new model runs. Ems continues to prove them wrong, even if they have recon data. Watch the models push west again on the 06Z runs.
Quoting TomTaylor:


Hi there, QPhysFTW. I'm not here to answer your questions, as I'm only in high school and haven't learned squat about what you guys are talking about.

Anyway, just wanted to comment and say keep up the questions, learning about this stuff and watching others discuss it on here is very interesting for me.

Too bad Levi and Drakoen left, they could probably contribute a lot to the discussion

surprise surprise drak's here
LOL, whoever said that we were wrong and that the GFS initialized correctly is a genius.
Quoting reedzone:
I still hold strong on my initial forecast, which I made this morning.

Tropical Storm Emily moves WNW as the weakness pulls it north. The a ridge will build back in for about 12-24 hours and steer Ems to South Florida, then either scraping or making landfall on the South Florida coastline. A shortwave trough diving south pulls Ems and recurves her around Melbourne or east of Melbourne, depending if she makes landfall, sharply recurves out to sea. As for the strength, I'm looking at least a strong TS near or landfall in Florida. Adrians forecast is also a very good possibility, but right now, until Ems makes her move WNW, I'm not buying a straight NW to NE movement right now. If she recurves, it will be dangerously close to Florida, enough to get watches and warnings.


Easy does it. No matter where it goes we are only dealing WITH a TS....
Quoting MississippiWx:


The pressure is what has me scratching my head. Emily can kiss my a**.

I wonder if the overall broad structure of the 850mb vort has something to do with the pressure not being able to drop and the winds not being able to spin up more quickly?



This one made me laugh...
1369. GetReal
Good night.... I have had all of emily that I can handle for tonight!!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


The pressure is what has me scratching my head. Emily can kiss my a**.

I wonder if the overall broad structure of the 850mb vort has something to do with the pressure not being able to drop and the winds not being able to spin up more quickly?



Hahaha..I luv it. You make a good point
1371. Drakoen
Still wondering why she refuses to move to the north. Beel noted earlier the localized increase geopotential heights on the mid level surface to the north of the system, which could be why she isn't moving more otwards the north. Fun system to track indeed.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The pressure is what has me scratching my head. Emily can kiss my a**.

I wonder if the overall broad structure of the 850mb vort has something to do with the pressure not being able to drop and the winds not being able to spin up more quickly?



Perhaps, but I don't know. Conditions really just don't seem THAT unfavorable, but I guess every system reacts differently.
Quoting Drakoen:
Still wondering why she refuses to move to the north. Beel noted earlier the localized increase geopotential heights on the mid level surface to the north of the system, which could be why she isn't moving more otwards the north. Fun system to track indeed.


You have a sick sense of humor.
can some1 link the latest modles for 2am?
Quoting MississippiWx:


The pressure is what has me scratching my head. Emily can kiss my a**.

I wonder if the overall broad structure of the 850mb vort has something to do with the pressure not being able to drop and the winds not being able to spin up more quickly?

yeah, Emily is turning out to be a real b****

lol

In all seriousness, this storm has been a misleading mess from the get go. Before it was named we had several LLCs. Finally we got one LLC but it also turned out to have a trough attached to it extending out to the SW. All the while, the MLC and convection has been terribly lopsided to the east. And despite very nice flare ups in convection, pressures have failed to drop.

ugh anyway...on the positive side, I have learned a lot from Emily.
Quoting extreme236:


Perhaps, but I don't know. Conditions really just don't seem THAT unfavorable, but I guess every system reacts differently.


I guess it's not just the 850mb vort that is broad...it's broad all the way up through 500mb. I would imagine that has something to do with it, but I just can't grasp in my mind why it is having such a tough time consolidating.
1378. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Indeed, this is true if the storms were diametrically opposed on the Earth. When you consider storms at the same longitude the angular momentum vectors will not completely cancel, and result in a vector that points into the Earth.

So I guess I need to think bigger -- the whole atmosphere. Presumably, the angular momentum vector, integrated over the entire surface of the Earth, cancels out nearly completely. But my question dealt with the rapid spin up of a hurricane. Exactly where does this angular momentum come from, and what is its fate? If it comes from another part of the atmosphere, there has to be some physical mechanism belying the transfer process, like some fluid flow. Or, since it's the Coriolis force that exerts the torque, the storm picks up its angular momentum from the immense angular momentum of the Earth.

Seriously now, though, last post for me tonight. I'm zombifying out now. Maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and realize this made no sense whatsoever :P


I think it's all of the above. The initial spin is from the Coriolis Force or Torque and the rest of it it gets from redistributing its mass and interaction with the atmosphere itself.
1379. Drakoen
What also interesting to note is the increase in moisture out ahead of the system and notably ahead of the low level center. This could be a sign that the upper level winds are also decreasing allowing for the moisture field to expand westward.
2am GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models

Link
Quoting Drakoen:
What also interesting to note is the increase in moisture out ahead of the system and notably ahead of the low level center. This could be a sign that the upper level winds are also decreasing allowing for the moisture field to expand westward.
And still, miraculously, the system weakens.

Due to Emily I'll never date a girl named Emily cuz she causes too many headaches.
1383. Seawall
Sorry, just don't have these model links down yet; I'll try to get better at it. Again, sorry.
Emily is now the most stacked from 850mb to 500mb that she has been in her lifetime. The strange, elongated orientation of the vort is what I can't understand.

850mb:



500mb:

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link


Thanx man...
I just wasted almost entire "Shark Week" just to track this d*** storm -_-* Who agree with me?
Quoting yesterway:


Thanx man...
your welcome!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And still, miraculously, the system weakens.

Due to Emily I'll never date a girl named Emily cuz she causes too many headaches.


I'll add a couple names for you...Sarah, Maggie, Jessica, Alexis.


Not that that little yellow spot W of FL has any chance against the TX High, but it looks to be trying.

I think our high could deflect an asteroid at this point.
Guys careful with the langauge there thanks,btw its not over till its over...
Quoting redwagon:


Not that that little yellow spot W of FL has any chance against the TX High, but it looks to be trying.

I think our high could deflect an asteroid at this point.


I just LOL'd.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I'll add a couple names for you...Sarah, Maggie, Jessica, Alexis.
Ufff, I've dated an Alexis and a Sarah, LMAO.

Anyways...

Recon is ascending, are they going home really early?
i'm out gonna get some shut eye check back later in am, gnite all
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ufff, I've dated an Alexis and a Sarah, LMAO.

Anyways...

Recon is ascending, are they going home really early?


If they are headed towards land, they may have to ascend.
Quoting MississippiWx:


If they are headed towards land, they may have to ascend.
Moving eastward over water...
interesting enough the 6z bam suites still say gom lol
If you look on shortwave loops or the RAMSDIS night time visible, it's still difficult to find any eastward moving clouds outside of the main ball of convection. She must be weak still on the southern side of the circulation and that could explain the elongated nature of the vorts. She almost seems like a trough of low pressure that has closed off somehow.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moving eastward over water...


Weird. I don't really understand their madness. I just go with it.
HI, can any1 plz tell me were emilys center currently is
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
HI, can any1 plz tell me were emilys center currently is


White Dot

Flying this coast in the dark inthe rain at a couple 1000 feet max must be a real pain. u don't want 2 miss......
1402. emguy
Actually, the pressure rise is not a big deal since Emily is not estblished. If this was a well devloped hurricane, it would be different, but I've seen this "pressure rise belch" many times before as the satellite presentation improves. I'm actually more concerned that not. We are starting to see the best satellite representation yet, and thunderstorms in the NE quad. In re-org, you will see a pressure rise as presentation improves, then a drop in pressure hours later, then a response in the winds. Just something to watch for.

Second Note, everyone is worried about the east west shift of models...I'd like to remind everyone that the current models coming in now include data/measurements for temperatures that occurred during the maximum land heating portion of the day, which would show a stronger "TEXAS (CONUS)" ridge with Emily further east. Tomorrow afternoon/evening, models shift west again because the CONUS temps will be lower, while air temps over the ocean will remain about relative. You have to split the difference to get a best approach with these models...its not just a run to run thang...
1403. Seawall
Any other time I'd be saying we have a borderline hurricane on our hands. Not with Emily. Nope. She's one of those people who puts on a nice front to fool you into thinking she's a great person, but she's really the devil on the inside.

1405. Drakoen
Unbiased infrared imagery shows a large region of -80C cloud tops with Emily:


weakness is become less and less ridges bridging is more and more
Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


White Dot




which way is she moving NW?
Quoting MississippiWx:


I just LOL'd.


It is gallows humor but we need two hurricanes to reload our water tables and lakes in Centex now.

When your back's against the wall like ours is, it sounds irrational to pray for a small meteor in the middle of the GOM but the Tropics cannot provide relief for a long forecasted time.
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



which way is she moving NW?


She's almost due west from the last center fix, which was about 5 hours ago. However, she has barely moved in that amount of time.
I've come to the conclusion that Emily is blind, that's why she cant find the weakness... lol a little storm humor for your headache.
1411. Seawall
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



which way is she moving NW?


Looks like it to me; I tried to post a loop, but it turned out static; not sure how to post the loop.
1412. emguy
Quoting MississippiWx:
Any other time I'd be saying we have a borderline hurricane on our hands. Not with Emily. Nope. She's one of those people who puts on a nice front to fool you into thinking she's a great person, but she's really the devil on the inside.



Actually, you need to archive that photo just in case...please read my previous post for a better explanation. It's speculative for now, but you may be seeing what you are seeing...
1413. Seawall
Sorry, more WNW to me, but it might be a slight jog in the track...
Quoting emguy:


Actually, you need to archive that photo just in case...please read my previous post for a better explanation. It's speculative for now, but you may be seeing what you are seeing...


Yeah, I read it. But Emily has looked like this for a while now. It doesn't normally take this long for strengthening to respond. Something just isn't right with Emily and hasn't been the entire time.
Quoting Seawall:
Sorry, more WNW to me, but it might be a slight jog in the track...


Just slightly north of due west, but this would be classified as a west movement:

Caribbean flight tracker to locate HHLink
1417. JLPR2
Emily firing nicely tonight, but the pressure is up to 1007mb? Emily is confusing.


Also, Euro showing something in the EAtl
Sorry I gave you the wrong link. This is for HH tracking

Link
Quoting JLPR2:
Emily firing nicely tonight, but the pressure is up to 1007mb? Emily is confusing.


Also, Euro showing something in the EAtl


Usually when both the GFS and Euro lock onto something, it has a pretty high chance of occurring. We'll see if they continue.
1420. Seawall
Quoting yesterway:
Sorry I gave you the wrong link. This is for HH tracking

Link

that is the NOAA high level flyer G-IV not the AF WC-130J
Quoting Seawall:
I give up trying to post a dynamic model. I call it quits for the night... Read and read, and just can't "get it"


Right click on the image. Click "copy image location". Come to the blog, click on the image icon. Paste the image location into the box. Click ok.
No one knows what happened to Recon?
look like they are headed home
1425. Drakoen
The new 00z runs have Emily making landfall at the tip of the DR right now which is clearly not the case as she continues to move off towards the west.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No one knows what happened to Recon?


Dunno...but it's interesting that they ascended. Hope they weren't having more issues.
any chance of the front slowing down or the high building back in?
1428. Seawall
Tried that, MS, and it's just not working.. I'm just having bad luck tonight! Thanks for your help, though.
000
URNT15 KNHC 040703
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 20 20110804
065200 1611N 06943W 5471 05119 0215 -033 //// 181032 037 /// /// 05
065230 1611N 06941W 5306 05360 0229 -036 //// 184025 025 /// /// 05
065300 1612N 06940W 5161 05583 0244 -043 //// 192024 025 031 004 05
065330 1613N 06938W 5038 05774 0258 -050 //// 200023 024 029 004 01
065400 1613N 06936W 4911 05973 0269 -060 //// 201024 025 /// /// 05
065430 1614N 06934W 4793 06166 0283 -071 //// 199025 025 025 002 05
065500 1614N 06932W 4682 06346 0294 -078 //// 197022 023 025 001 05
065530 1615N 06930W 4578 06523 0307 -088 //// 194021 022 024 001 05
065600 1616N 06928W 4477 06698 0319 -097 //// 182021 023 027 001 05
065630 1616N 06926W 4388 06857 0330 -109 //// 174020 023 024 002 05
065700 1617N 06924W 4286 07037 0343 -119 //// 167019 019 026 001 05
065730 1618N 06922W 4204 07187 0357 -129 //// 161019 019 024 002 01
065800 1618N 06920W 4114 07352 0369 -137 //// 157016 016 022 003 01
065830 1619N 06918W 4051 07470 0377 -143 //// 165015 016 024 003 01
065900 1619N 06916W 3998 07571 0385 -149 //// 173017 017 025 003 05
065930 1620N 06914W 3939 07686 0392 -158 //// 167018 019 026 002 01
070000 1621N 06912W 3918 07723 0393 -160 //// 149016 017 027 004 01
070030 1621N 06910W 3922 07714 0391 -160 //// 132011 013 025 004 01
070100 1622N 06908W 3930 07698 0390 -160 //// 131010 011 024 003 01
070130 1623N 06905W 3921 07714 0391 -160 //// 135010 011 027 002 01
$$
1430. Seawall
I can post a "still" image, but not a "moving" one.. LOL I'm just old.
Quoting Seawall:
I can post a "still" image, but not a "moving" one.. LOL I'm just old.


You can't post loops unless you make a loop yourself through a .gif. The loops provided by Wunderground usually work on the blog though if you do the correct process.
1432. Seawall
lol jfv is pissed at the latest models check it out on 28storms.com page on fb.
1434. Seawall
Thanks, MS, that explains it. Appreciate your help. No loops for me unless the fruit loop kind.. LOL
someone post the 2am model runs plz
Emily really refuses to move much at all. Whatever motion she has is to the west.

Looks like recon is heading home. Just another WTF moment with Emily.

Quoting Seawall:
Thanks, MS, that explains it. Appreciate your help. No loops for me unless the fruit loop kind.. LOL


LOL. No problem. Just takes a little while to learn everything.
when is the next recon flight
1440. Seawall
Jeez, thought I had seen a WNW jog, but looking again, what I think is the center might have actually taken a WSW jog. This one might go down in history as the hardest to forecast ever.. Nite all.
Quoting emguy:
Actually, the pressure rise is not a big deal since Emily is not estblished. If this was a well devloped hurricane, it would be different, but I've seen this "pressure rise belch" many times before as the satellite presentation improves. I'm actually more concerned that not. We are starting to see the best satellite representation yet, and thunderstorms in the NE quad. In re-org, you will see a pressure rise as presentation improves, then a drop in pressure hours later, then a response in the winds. Just something to watch for.
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.

Very high circular clouds over the COC... maybe Emily is finally getting her act together? Or maybe will be sheared apart by mid-afternoon like every other day...

In other news, Eugene is definitely looking annular IMO.
1443. guygee
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
1444. Drakoen

Quoting guygee:
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol
Quoting guygee:
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
yes the region is still very rugged and mountainous.

It will probably run into Cuba a little later down the road as well.
1446. bdm2225
No rain or wind so far in Port-au-Prince, lightning visible in the distance now. She's almost here....
Quoting Drakoen:

If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol

yeah I don't even think it will make landfall in Haiti
Quoting Drakoen:

If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol
true lol
Looks like she's hammering the Dominican Republic with rain.
Looks like recon is heading back for the night. Normally I would complain, but given the 1007mb minimum pressure finding, I can't blame them at all. Emily hasn't strengthened at all...if anything she has weakened slightly.
New Blog!!!
Quoting bdm2225:
No rain or wind so far in Port-au-Prince, lightning visible in the distance now. She's almost here....

I think that you are only going to get the outer rainbands
Quoting TomTaylor:
Looks like recon is heading back for the night. Normally I would complain, but given the 1007mb minimum pressure finding, I can't blame them at all. Emily hasn't strengthened at all...if anything she has weakened slightly.


I don't think it has so much to do with the intensity as it does the proximity to land.
Before I head off to bed, just wanted to summarize my thoughts on Emily.

Recon's observations have found a minimum pressure of 1007mb, indicating the storm hasn't intensified at all despite impressive convective blow-ups. This just goes to show how unorganized Emily remains. At the low levels, although the circulation is closed, there is a trough attached to the SW. Additionally, the MLC remains non-stacked over the LLC and convection remains lopsided to the east. At the upper levels, despite a decent upper level anticyclone over the system creating divergence aloft, an upper trough feature to the north is keeping moderate shear over the system and upper level convergence to the NW. This moderate shear partially explains the reason why the MLC and convection have been off to the east the entire time. Another reason we are seeing more convection on this side is due to greater divergence aloft and convergence below on this side, naturally favoring convection more on this side. The net result, is a broad, poorly consolidated, unaligned (vertically), lopsided (convection-wise), disorganized system named Emily.

The center fix from Recon also shows that the storm is moving very slowly and has yet to make a turn northward. Perhaps the slow speed is a sign that Emily is trying to begin the turn north, but it's hard to say at the moment. Anyway, Emily should eventually turn out a bit, heading more WNW/NW, causing her to weaken after crossing the Haitian peninsula. Although this peninsula is fairly skinny, it is also very rugged and mountainous (7,000 ft mountain tops on the peninsula). After the peninsula, Emily will have more land interaction as she crosses Cuba.

All this land interaction will only hurt the very disorganized TS Emily. Given the fact that Recon only found a 1007mb low (right in the midst of a diurnal pressure minimum), the LLC has a trough attached, the MLC is decoupled, and convection is very lopsided, I expect Emily will look pretty bad after the land interaction.

Steering in response to the Atlantic ridge building in should take Emily along the Bahamas and then just off the coast of Florida, if not over it, before Emily (or whatever is left of her) begins a turn out to sea, in response to zonal flow (E-W flow) and a very weak shortwave across the NE US. Intensification in the Atlantic (after the Caribbean) will be hard to come by. Personally, I believe any intensification after leaving the greater Antilles will be very slow, to non existent at least for the first couple of days. Land interaction will keep the storm weak and disorganized at first (Thursday). Then shear, upper convergence, dry air, and subsidence will all become less favorable as Emily nears the massive ridge (on Friday and Saturday). ECMWF and GFS 200mb winds and SHIPS forecast strongly support this.

The only shot I really see Emily having at significant development is once it gets underneath the periphery of the US ridge (in about 3/4 days). SHIPS guidance, and the GFS 0z shear run both indicate shear will lighten up at that time, and so will upper level convergence. Which should give Emily her best shot at intensifying during this time period. Still, it will have to deal with dry air and subsidence characteristic of all ridges.
1455. guygee
I think just being in the vicinity south of those mountains has to be detrimental to surface organization. According to this source,
"The mountains of the southern peninsula, an extension of the southern mountain chain of the Dominican Republic (the Sierra de Baoruco), extend from the Massif de la Selle in the east to the Massif de la Hotte in the west. The range's highest peak, the Morne de la Selle, is the highest point in Haiti, rising to an altitude of 2,715 meters. The Massif de la Hotte varies in elevation from 1,270 to 2,255 meters."
It is almost as if Emily has a big mile-high wall to her north. Crossing that wall has killed plenty of her predecessors.
New Blog.
1457. emguy
Quoting TomTaylor:
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.


WOW! Satellite...Image! Respectfully, it's a comparison of apples to oranges. Lat night, the action was sheared to the east. Tonight, whe are getting very nice wrap around under decreased shear. Yes, this is a reinvention of Emily. Unfortunately, and understandably, we live in a "live data, I want to know now, what is it now" environment. What people will learn to understand is as fast as our technology becomes, and as impatient as we become in our craving for I want it now info, mother nature, weather, and physics will ultimately not catch up. In the end, we will ALL learn the importantance of being patient. Just my soapbox, no reflection on you. Mean time, check out that new satellite image... you tell me...
Quoting Seawall:


It's pretty clear that he doesn't have Aspergers; it looks like a manic depressive disorder to me, and without his meds, it gets worse. Talking won't help him; he's also obsessed with this blog, and he's also obsessed with posting something as quickly as he can, for recognition. It's sad, but it's not ours or mine to cure. Just the way it is. It's for Jason's family to help him; we simply can't. All we will do is enable him.


Clearly how? You say he's obsessed with the blog and posing as quickly as he can,both hallmarks of AS, and you're correct that communicating is very difficult for him. I'm not sure it's possible to ever really 'cure' a syndrome, but on the plus side for him is that I think he has a joie de vivre which most of us do not.

People with Asperger syndrome often display behavior, interests, and activities that are restricted and repetitive and are sometimes abnormally intense or focused. They may stick to inflexible routines, move in stereotyped and repetitive ways, or preoccupy themselves with parts of objects.[24]

Pursuit of specific and narrow areas of interest is one of the most striking features of AS.[3] Individuals with AS may collect volumes of detailed information on a relatively narrow topic such as weather data or star names, without necessarily having genuine understanding of the broader topic


Whatever the case may be, the # of posts from others on the subject I bet far exceeds the # of his actual posts (at least all weather related) combined the past few days, and here I am adding to that # as I type this. Still learning the superpower that triple K dude has of taking the millisecond to scroll past an irritating comment and just let it roll off, not that easy
Quoting TomTaylor:
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.
Tom, I understand your point about diurnal pressure minimums, but it most certainly was not near 4 a.m. when that pressure of 1007 was taken. It was 1:45 EDT / AST, or if you prefer 12:45 EST. Nowhere near Dmin.
New Blog post!!