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Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

u didnt notice the anticyclone in emily now shear is limited
Quoting traumaboyy:


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!
Yea! I'm in..
1503. emguy
Rhut-Rho...may be detecting the beginnings of a trough split based on the East CONUS Water vapor loop. Watch over eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and north Georgia. This could be important if it evolves.
42060 B 0450 16.33 -63.50 0 0 60 23.3 27.2 7.9 7 5.5 - 29.81 -0.04 82.4 84.2 76.6
Buoy 42060 about 80 miles NE of Emily, winds ENE at 23 gusting 31, 1009MB and falling.Waves 9 feet and increasing.
1505. JLPR2
Buoy at: 16.333 N 63.500 W
Is Emily really that close to this buoy?
If the center is really at 63.5W then Emily is not a TS.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Quoting TomTaylor:



Will that TUTT be moving out of the way before then or will Emily get its act together before then to better combat that dry air. I personally believe that any intensification is possible, models don't seem to have good enough input data to accurately predict changes in intensification in young systems in my opinion.
Quoting emguy:
Rhut-Rho...may be detecting the beginnings of a trough split based on the East CONUS Water vapor loop. Watch over eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and north Georgia. This could be important if it evolves.
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?
.8 south of that
Quoting traumaboyy:


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!
Should Emily pay me a visit in Miami, I'm definitely gonna be blogging.

Considering the fact that I lost power during the tropical thunderstorm known as Bonnie, I'll probably have to start blogging from my phone as soon as the outer bands start approaching, LOL.
Quoting texwarhawk:


Until the power goes out right-- unless you have an iphone then you can blog throughout-- sure would be interesting getting blog updates from someone in it.


Have all the experience with the big storms I want...BUT if we get another.....WE are ready...generators, batteries, inverters.....The party would be ON!!
note the pressure as well..also note the bouy doesnt really mean anything probably the strongest winds arent in the specific area.
Quoting scott39:
If Emily was just a little bit farther S, she would be developing alot faster. I think the wind shear to the N is keeping her from taking off.
At the moment, yea the TUTT is probably the biggest inhibitor for development. It is greatly helping convection flourish to the east. However, it is also providing upper level convergence, subsidence, and dry air far to the NW of the system which Emily will have to deal with later. Also, it is providing shear to the north. There is still divergence in the upper levels on the immediate NW side of Emily, but it's not nearly as significant as it is on the east side. This may have also been part of the reason why this system has been so disorganized over the last few days as noted by the mid level circulation staying back to the east.

Later down the road, land interaction should be the biggest inhibitor.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
1515. Walshy
Test
Test
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should Emily pay me a visit in Miami, I'm definitely gonna be blogging.

Considering the fact that I lost power during the tropical thunderstorm known as Bonnie, I'll probably have to start blogging from my phone as soon as the outer bands start approaching, LOL.


Well we at least have South and Northwest Florida covered!!
Hate to get off topic but I'm watching Storm Riders on TWC and I find it much better than Storm Chasers on Discovery. It's explaining what a couplet is and how to find it on radar- that's already more informative than Storm Chasers which is getting more and more drama filled in my opinion, anyway back to Emily-

I know the people have been criticizing the models, but it seems since this thing was labeled invest they have been pretty good only really shifting between re-curving north of PR and making it to S-FL
it works walshy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
Eastern Gulf right?
1521. JLPR2
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
note the pressure as well..also note the bouy doesnt really mean anything probably the strongest winds arent in the specific area.


Emily's strongest winds are supposed to be in that area. Tropical systems have the strongest winds around their center and the north/northeast side of tropical systems is typically the strongest side.
And then there is this:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
6z model plots will be coming in about 30-45 minutes.

Global models take much longer however.



HEY THANKS can i get a good web page to veiw theese?
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well we at least have South and Northwest Florida covered!!


Well you got Houston covered as long as it's below a 3-- Would be extremely surprised to see it track here though lol.
could be misreading the info imo
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:


HEY THANKS can i get a good web page to veiw theese?


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
um... judging by "uh-oh", it's going into Gulf of Mexico now? (not wishcaster as I live in NC)
Uh Oh mosquito sprayers just drove down my street-- The greatest thing about being in this horrible drought is the mosquitoes haven't been nearly as disturbing as usual.
1528. scott39
Quoting TomTaylor:
At the moment, yea the TUTT is probably the biggest inhibitor for development. It is greatly helping convection flourish to the east. However, it is also providing upper level convergence, subsidence, and dry air far to the NW of the system which Emily will have to deal with later. Also, it is providing shear to the north. There is still divergence in the upper levels on the immediate NW side of Emily, but it's not nearly as significant as it is on the east side. This may have also been part of the reason why this system has been so disorganized over the last few days as noted by the mid level circulation staying back to the east.

Later down the road, land interaction should be the biggest inhibitor.
So we shouldnt expect too much out of Emily for the next 72 hours? Does the trough only pull on a strong TC?
1529. JLPR2
To me, it looks like Emily is back here, but we need recon to know for sure just where and how is the LLC.
Guess we have to wait for HH to get a true and correct center placement. Isn't it kinda like informed guesswork with out the plane, trying to look at sat loops.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
um... judging by "uh-oh", it's going into Gulf of Mexico now? (not wishcaster as I live in NC)
Quoting midgulfmom:
Eastern Gulf right?
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
Wait a sec--- What happened with convergence?!?!?

Quoting texwarhawk:


Well you got Houston covered as long as it's below a 3-- Would be extremely surprised to see it track here though lol.


And with Kori and xcool in NOLA...the GOMEX is covered!!

I hope this thing does not hit anywhere in CONUS but regardless of what I want it is going to happen eventually. I love living close to the beach...this is just part of it!!
1534. scott39
It looks like she is trying to some "weight" on her W side.
Anticyclone no longer appears to no longer be stacked (according to CMISS data)
Quoting texwarhawk:
Wait a sec--- What happened with convergence?!?!?

Moved over the "supposed" circulation. Would be nice if Recon was in there to know whether or not the circulation relocated towards the east.
Quoting scott39:
It looks like she is trying to some "weight" on her W side.


Wouldn't it be more like lose weight? I mean it is Low Pressure after all XD
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
meaning Emily will be stronger than forecasted if the split were to occur? Sorry... trying to learn here.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
meaning Emily will be stronger than forecasted if the split were to occur? Sorry... trying to learn here.
Not necessarily, the trough split won't influence the intensity of the system.
Did HH cancel the current flight?
1541. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
I think we will be suprised of how far W it goes.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
Kman posted a map showing the split and shortwave trough I think. How far west and how strong seems to be the question indeed.
AL, 05, 2011080206, , BEST, 0, 155N, 636W, 35, 1006, TS,
1544. JLPR2
I went on a scavenger hunt for west winds on islands. LOL!

Grenada: Speed / Dir 6 mph from West

That's all I found so far.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moved over the "supposed" circulation. Would be nice if Recon was in there to know whether or not the circulation relocated towards the east.


I thought they were going out at 0600Z. Think they rescheduled to 1200Z?
1547. emguy
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?


The trough is what we are watching for to create a weakness (or a path of least resistance for the storm). This is induced by troughs that dig down from the north and break down the ridge. If you watch the loop, you will see a diving motion. However, the hub of the trough itself is NW of Maine and is moving out. The trough has a diving lobe and in there over Tenn, NC, GA, you will notice a couterclockwise spin evolving. This is a developing cutoff low that is getting left behind (in other words, a split). This will dive south around the Texas ridge into florida (and breakdown the ridge over the Atlantic a bit more), but then would likely "retrograde" west into the gulf south of the ridge. IE, if this persists, the path of least resistance would angle towards Florida as the ridge fills in to the north of the new cutoff and the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds. Just something to keep a close eye on at the moment to see if trends continue. It's technical stuff, but hope it helps.
Quoting emguy:


The trough is what we are watching for to create a weakness (or a path of least resistance for the storm). This is induced by troughs that dig down from the north and break down the ridge. If you watch the loop, you will see a diving motion. However, the hub of the trough itself is NW of Maine and is moving out. The trough has a diving lobe and in there over Tenn, NC, GA, you will notice a couterclockwise spin evolving. This is a developing cutoff low that is getting left behind (in other words, a split). This will dive south around the Texas ridge into florida (and breakdown the ridge over the Atlantic a bit more), but then would likely "retrograde" west into the gulf south of the ridge. IE, if this persists, the path of least resistance would angle towards Florida as the ridge fills in to the north of the new cutoff and the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds. Just something to keep a close eye on at the moment to see if trends continue. It's technical stuff, but hope it helps.


I'd like to see what NAM has to say about it on it's 1200Z run
5-10 kts over coc...anticyclone to the west now but shear isn't high there only extreme northern part.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 05, 2011080206, , BEST, 0, 155N, 636W, 35, 1006, TS,


They're just going to keep going off of continuity. They can't tell us anything new because recon isn't out there.
Quoting texwarhawk:


I thought they were going out at 0600Z. Think they rescheduled to 1200Z?
Recon was supposed to arrive in the system at 06z, so they probably cancelled it.

The next mission was scheduled for 12z, so 6 more hours...
Long time lurker, 8 pm Sat. puts this thing as a hurricane over me acording to NHC.
1553. scott39
Emily is going to have to slowing down alot, to start making that WNW turn at 65W.
06z BAM suite has shifted westward once again. Our most accurate model thus far, the LGEM, mimics the 11p.m NHC track very closely.

The TVCN mimics the 11p.m NHC track as well, and then curves the system out to sea very sharply.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon was supposed to arrive in the system at 06z, so they probably cancelled it.

The next mission was scheduled for 12z, so 6 more hours...


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?
sigh... really wish recon is outhere so I can see what's actually happening inside Emily. It get really late now, so I better get some sleep.
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?
2 of the 3 bam suites has it moving south of dr,north of jamaica and south of cuba thats a big shift hmmm
There's a G-IV mission scheduled when it's supposed to be over Hispaniola-- would that give usable data or would the interaction with land complicate things?
Quoting MississippiWx:


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?


No (E.) 02/0530Z would be takeoff time

I thought it might mean return time.
When does the NHC update their tracks?
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?
Nah, they're doing a fix every 6 hours. They do it for the fixes scheduled for this afternoon as well:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z,03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/1615Z
D. 15.7N 63.3W
E. 02/1730Z TO 03/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Quoting MississippiWx:


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?
They were supposed to depart at 04:30UTC (letter C) and arrive in the cyclone at 06:00UTC (letter A).



Furthest west I have seen the BAM suite shift. Interesting... still not sold on the western path yet though
Quoting texwarhawk:


No (E.) 02/0530Z would be takeoff time


Ah, I've never really gotten into the whole recon thing. Everyone else does such a good job with it that I see no reason why I should look into the details. I can read the hdobs and that's all I care to know.
Quoting nolacane2009:
When does the NHC update their tracks?


At regular (not intermediate) advisories at 5 and 11
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ah, I've never really gotten into the whole recon thing. Everyone else does such a good job with it that I see no reason why I should look into the details. I can read the hdobs and that's all I care to know.


I understand I'm just using context clues looking at the plans and what actually happens-- I've depended on Google Earth Recon Updates for almost a year not- not as quick but much easier to see in relation to things without having to have a LATLON grid in your head lol
Quoting texwarhawk:


At regular (not intermediate) advisories at 5 and 11


Thank you.
I find it really interesting that Recon didn't go out- They won't have recon info before the next update now. Very very very interesting-- Now they wont have recon in there till right when they issue the intermediate advisory.
Quoting texwarhawk:
I find it really interesting that Recon didn't go out- They won't have recon info before the next update now. Very very very interesting-- Now they wont have recon in there till right when they issue the intermediate advisory.


Frustrating as hell is the better term...lol.
Dynamic 6z

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You couldn't stand it, could you? Lol.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If that LLC is under that convection-- that thing is looking good (IMO)
Quoting texwarhawk:


Will that TUTT be moving out of the way before then or will Emily get its act together before then to better combat that dry air. I personally believe that any intensification is possible, models don't seem to have good enough input data to accurately predict changes in intensification in young systems in my opinion.
The TUTT will actually back off...sorry if I mislead anyone here saying that the TUTT's negative side effects should increase slightly. The reason I said that is Emily is moving slightly north of west so it should get closer to the TUTT axis presently to the north. The TUTT, however, will be backing off to the East as a trough comes off the east coast of the US.

Therefore, the negative effects of this TUTT (dry, sinking air in response to upper level convergence far to the NW of the system - also keep in mind this TUTT also has many positive effects for Emily) shouldn't necessarily increase. Instead it should, just remain a bit of an issue over the next day.

Whether or not the upper level anticyclone will be allowed to truly balloon northward (it's currently having trouble due to the TUTT to the north) is hard to say. The trough to the north could either act to help take winds out of the top of the system, or it could work with the ridge over the US to provide northerly winds aloft pushing air toward the system, limiting the upper level anticyclone. It will all depend on the strength and positioning of the trough coming off the US and the ridge over the US. Currently the GFS and ECMWF are both displaying these upper level features, but they disagree quite significantly on the location/timing, and the strength of these features. This has a big impact on what upper level winds and conditions will be like over Emily so it will be important to keep on eye on this.
I'd give a toe to have the sun over Emily right not-- Not really but you get the point.
1577. JLPR2
Well my brain cant take this uncertainty so I'm turning off the computer and not looking at Emily anymore. LOL!

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

But every new picture in the Martinique radar convinces me more and more that the center has reformed under the convection with bands coming from the south and clearly spinning; unless that's the mother of the mid-level circulations. xD



Also, before I go, does anyone know if the track in the short term(48hrs) would change if the center did reform?
Emily is probably getting a boost in energy/moisture from that ITCZ disturbance that was south of her earlier today. It kind of fizzled, but its remnants are being pulled into Emily. Impressive banding is now very evident on her SE/E/NE sides:

Quoting TomTaylor:
The TUTT will actually back off...sorry if I mislead anyone here saying that the TUTT's negative side effects should increase slightly. The reason I said that is Emily is moving slightly north of west so it should get closer to the TUTT axis presently to the north. The TUTT, however, will be backing off to the East as a trough comes off the east coast of the US.

Therefore, the negative effects of this TUTT (dry, sinking air in response to upper level convergence far to the NW of the system - also keep in mind this TUTT also has many positive effects for Emily) shouldn't necessarily increase. Instead it should, just remain a bit of an issue over the next day.

Whether or not the upper level anticyclone will be allowed to truly balloon northward (it's currently having trouble due to the TUTT to the north) is hard to say. The trough to the north could either act to help take winds out of the top of the system, or it could work with the ridge over the US to provide northerly winds aloft pushing air toward the system, limiting the upper level anticyclone. It will all depend on the strength and positioning of the trough coming off the US and the ridge over the US. Currently the GFS and ECMWF are both displaying these upper level features, but they disagree quite significantly on the location/timing, and the strength of these features. This has a big impact on what upper level winds and conditions will be like over Emily so it will be important to keep on eye on this.


Wouldn't Emily being on the edge of the TUTT (far enough away to not be sheered) be beneficial due to stronger instability and greater ventilation?
remmember what levi told us we have seen many storms look like this neer damx but once the sun comes up rip
Quoting JLPR2:
Well my brain cant take this uncertainty so I'm turning off the computer and not looking at Emily anymore. LOL!

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

But every new picture in the Martinique radar convinces me more and more that the center has reformed under the convection with bands coming from the south and clearly spinning; unless that's the mother of the mid-level circulations. xD



Also, before I go, does anyone know if the track in the short term(48hrs) would change if the center did reform?


Yeah, it would most likely turn in a more northerly direction farther east...possibly closer to you. You should definitely pay attention.
Couple friends of mine were part of hailSTONE which found the largest documented Hailstone to fall on Oklahoma earlier this year

Link
Morning all. I see some new faces. Welcome! Hope none are JFV impostor. :)
Trauma, you still here. Read some of your earlier posts.
1585. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, it would most likely turn in a more northerly direction farther east...possibly closer to you. You should definitely pay attention.


The HHs better have technical difficulties or I'll cause them... LOL! :\ I really wanted them to check Emily out to know what to expect for tomorrow, but eh...
I'll be watching closely.

Good night everyone!
1586. 34chip
I live in Key West not to worried about this storm. Think we might get some rain, but we need it.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Morning all. I see some new faces. Welcome! Hope none are JFV impostor. :)
Trauma, you still here. Read some of your earlier posts.


Hiya Frank....in and out...depending on how buzy we are here at work. You having a good morning??
Starting to get a nice outflow going.
If the actual center is where the last ATCF coordinates are located, I will eat dirt instead of crow. Each passing frame convinces me that it's farther east. The Martinique radar confirms my thinking as well.

Newest frame from 645UTC:

Quoting 34chip:
I live in Key West not to worried about this storm. Think we might get some rain, but we need it.


You know I've never really thought of it but where do y'all get your drinking water from? Is there a aquifer or desalination plant or pipeline from mainland?
Quoting MississippiWx:
If the actual center is where the last ATCF coordinates are located, I will eat dirt instead of crow. Each passing frame convinces me that it's farther east. The Martinique radar confirms my thinking as well.

Newest frame from 645UTC:



Can not wait to see what that looks like when the sun hits it. Hate we don't have recon!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hiya Frank....in and out...depending on how buzy we are here at work. You having a good morning??
I had my outpatient ankle arthroscopy this AM. They removed torn cartilage and drilled holes in my ankle. You must be preparing for the dress thing?
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5a.m. because Emily is looking pretty darn good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

Edit: Notice the coordinates that SAB has for Emily, almost right in the center of the CDO, and TAFB is just a little more to the west.

So in other words, the NHC is pretty much alone in their thinking that Emily's circulation is all the way at 63.6W.
Quoting MississippiWx:
If the actual center is where the last ATCF coordinates are located, I will eat dirt instead of crow. Each passing frame convinces me that it's farther east. The Martinique radar confirms my thinking as well.

Newest frame from 645UTC:


I agree the convection looks to round for it to be where the atcf has it...I think it did get sucked in that deep convection.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5p.m. because Emily is looking pretty good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT
AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


Could you decode that for me-- I have no idea what it is saying.
1596. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


You know I've never really thought of it but where do y'all get your drinking water from? Is there a aquifer or desalination plant or pipeline from mainland?
There are pipes under water that run down from the mainland Florida City. When a storm does come they shut the water off incase there is a break in the pipes.That is only if it was to be a strong storm. But dont get to excited about storms here like they do in Miami and other places. We deal with whatever may happen.
Nice banding to the west and outflow.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5a.m. because Emily is looking pretty darn good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...
Quoting 34chip:
There are pipes under water that run down from the mainland Florida City. When a storm does come they shut the water off incase there is a break in the pipes.That is only if it was to be a strong storm. But dont get to excited about storms here like they do in Miami and other places. We deal with whatever may happen.


That could be a very dangerous situation if a strong one comes close. But then again I'm sure y'all have holding tanks for such situations. And if the pipes were to break the bridge would also probably be out.
Quoting texwarhawk:


Could you decode that for me-- I have no idea what it is saying.
Where's Nrt when you need him? Lol, he has a link that shows you what everything stands for. Unfortunately, I don't have it bookmarked. What I highlighted are the T-numbers though, and that's the important thing.

Quoting MississippiWx:


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...
Yup, I made an edit right after I posted it because I noticed how much further east the coordinates were juxtaposed against the latest ATCF update.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...


That would be directly under the convection right?
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
Quoting texwarhawk:


That would be directly under the convection right?


Indeed.
1604. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


That could be a very dangerous situation if a strong one comes close. But then again I'm sure y'all have holding tanks for such situations. And if the pipes were to break the bridge would also probably be out.
They do have back up tanks here on the island. As far as I know they have only used them during Andrew in 1992, but not much since then. I think Emily is going to be moving closer to Florida and the keys, but not as a strong hurricane. What do you think?
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.


That has got to be one of the biggest model spreads I've ever seen.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I had my outpatient ankle arthroscopy this AM. They removed torn cartilage and drilled holes in my ankle. You must be preparing for the dress thing?


Oh yeah.....hope it went well for you. Looks like we finally have a serious storm building with what may be close to 100% chance hitting CONUS.
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.
Quoting 34chip:
They do have back up tanks here on the island. As far as I know they have only used them during Andrew in 1992, but not much since then. I think Emily is going to be moving closer to Florida and the keys, but not as a strong hurricane. What do you think?


I no longer speculate lol. I've decided with this storm it's time to stop and only focus on the NHC forecast track. Anything I would tell you would be nothing but a guess and I definitely don't want people making decisions on my stupid guesses lol.
1609. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


That has got to be one of the biggest model spreads I've ever seen.
Untill we have a strong T-Storm. I think it will be like that. Also, as it gets closer we will know more. I think its going to move more west and come over florida as a T-Storm. IMO!!
1610. crunja

Any chance it can hit D.C. ?
Since the models are split, I'm going with climatology. August storms in this area are four times more likely to wind up in the GOM than they are to head north. I think you'll see more models trend west tomorrow.
The BAMS spaghetti track is about the worst plot I've ever seen. Hardly takes Emily over any land in the Antilles and shoots it into the Central Gulf and perhaps finally NNE into NOLA, worst case scenario by far, if that were allowed to happen we could have Katrina all over again but worse.
TAFB has Emily parked over northern Andros island as a considerable tropical cyclone in a little less than 4 days (very, very compact system):

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.


Well, I think it moved around some. It was a speed demon earlier today, but was slowed by the blowup of convection. However, I think you're on to something about the current speed. They even mentioned on the first advisory how unsure they were of speed/direction.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Oh yeah.....hope it went well for you. Looks like we finally have a serious storm building with what may be close to 100% chance hitting CONUS.
I think the panhandle should be OK unless things change drastically. Unfortunately you will be on the dry side and you may not get much drought relief.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I think the panhandle should be OK unless things change drastically. Unfortunately you will be on the dry side and you may not get much drought relief.


We been getting plenty of rain for weeks now...so we in good shape there.
Quoting deaddude21:
The BAMS spaghetti track is about the worst plot I've ever seen. Hardly takes Emily over any land in the Antilles and shoots it into the Central Gulf and perhaps finally NNE into NOLA, worst case scenario by far, if that were allowed to happen we could have Katrina all over again but worse.


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".
XTRP says Dean
BAMS says Camille or Frederic
BAMM (and climo model CLP5) says Charley
CMC and UKMET say Fay
NHC and NOGAPS say Frances
The rest currently take Emily out to sea...but barely.
Quoting crunja:

Any chance it can hit D.C. ?


This I will guess on-- Most likely not. For it to hit DC it would have to
A.) Make landfall on the coast than only slightly re-curve and continue up the coast (best chance but not very strong)
B.) Turn north then get blocked and head back west (near 0% chance)
C.) Have another hurricane form to the north of it and go through the Fujiwara effect (Absolutely no chance and if it does happen I will literally eat a dead crow)
A little off topic, but this is my forecast for Wednesday. UGH.


Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 114. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

The death ridge is making its return here in Mississippi after a fairly long hiatus. We've had very rainy weather the past 3 weeks.
TS.Emily's travel-speed slowed to 15.7mph(25.2k/h), and its heading of 278.6degrees(West)
is 1.5degrees more northward than its previous travel-direction.

Copy&paste 13.5n55.1w, 14.3n56.7w-15.0n58.5w, 15.0n58.5w-15.1n60.5w, 15.1n60.5w-15.3n62.2w, 15.3n62.2w-15.5n63.6w, dom, tza, 15.3n62.2w-17.49n88.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passing over BelizeCity,Belize ~4days7hours from now
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".


Welcome back Kori!!
Everyone relax! The models are going to constantly move during the next 24 hrs. By this time tomorrow night I believe we will have a better idea where Emily is going.
Quoting MississippiWx:
A little off topic, but this is my forecast for Wednesday. UGH.


Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 114. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

The death ridge is making its return here in Mississippi after a fairly long hiatus. We've had very rainy weather the past 3 weeks.


Oh man I know I complain about the heat and humidity here in Houston, but it's no where near what the other gulf coast states are dealing with inland
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".

Obviously, but if Emily stays a TS and remains on a WNW course to the GOM and then all of a sudden becomes a hurricane we could have a Gustav on our hands. How are conditions now "much" different than what they were with Katrina? The SST's and TCHP are easily favorable to support a Cat. 5 ATM.
Quoting traumaboyy:


We been getting plenty of rain for weeks now...so we in good shape there.
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!
Quoting StarnzMet:
Everyone relax! The models are going to constantly move during the next 24 hrs. By this time tomorrow night I believe we will have a better idea where Emily is going.


I think everyone here is relaxed. This is the relaxed crew, mainly because no one has enough energy to be anything else...
Quoting MississippiWx:


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.

That ridge is centered over Texas and the N. Central Gulf Coast represents the SE periphery, it could get eroded much more easily than it could in Texas...obviously that's why Don went poof as it made landfall.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Welcome back Kori!!


Thanks!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.



so... what does this mean?
Quoting MississippiWx:


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
How much longer can it hold out. I'll take 98 degrees any day over a major hurricane.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!


optomistic about rain, worried about the bubbacanes, and glad they are all finished, most of my favorite places over there are above sea level, but not above storm surge level.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!


Oh man I have a friend in Golden Meadow, LA-- after getting flooded in the 60's(???) the town paid to have a levee put up. The levee survived Gustav, Katrina, Rita, and a scare during Ike (or maybe Gustav or Katrina sorry its late), where the water was about 6" from topping the levee. But Army Corps wont certify it because it's only 13ft instead of the recommended 15ft. Kinda sad, but they are pretty well protected between the levees and the marsh (don't know how long they'll be there though).
Quoting deaddude21:

Obviously, but if Emily stays a TS and remains on a WNW course to the GOM and then all of a sudden becomes a hurricane we could have a Gustav on our hands. How are conditions now "much" different than what they were with Katrina? The SST's and TCHP are easily favorable to support a Cat. 5 ATM.


Gustav was no Katrina, last time I checked.

They are not "easily favorable" to support a Category 5. Do you realize how perfect conditions need to be in order to generate that kind of storm?
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
man wtf is going on!! how the hell is the models in the GOM. This storm i hope get ripped up into pieces when it goes over hati and the D.R. No disrespect to those people.
Quoting texwarhawk:


Wouldn't Emily being on the edge of the TUTT (far enough away to not be sheered) be beneficial due to stronger instability and greater ventilation?
Sorry for my seemingly wavering responses. I've been posting while just going off my gut feeling on what should happen, not really looking at the models. After finally spending the time to look at the models, yes, you're right, the TUTT will be pulling out to the east which should allow the upper level anticyclone to build more over Emily over the next couple days while it is over the Caribbean. The real issue for Emily's upper level winds will be beyond day 3 when it gets underneath the northerly flow from the ridge over the US and the trough to the NE.

96 hr GFS 200mb wind streamlines at 0z




96 hr ECMWF 200mb wind streamlines at 0z




(open image in new tab to expand)
well well well look likes jfv is on fb right now on the 28storms.com page asking questions??interesting he ain't doing it here maybe gave up finally lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Gustav was no Katrina, last time I checked.

They are not "easily favorable" to support a Category 5. Do you realize how perfect conditions need to be in order to generate that kind of storm?

Then explain to me why two of them 175-mph babies formed in the same spot about a month apart?
Quoting FrankZapper:
How much longer can it hold out. I'll take 98 degrees any day over a major hurricane.


Who knows...the South desperately needs it to break down though. We'll have to take our chances with the hurricanes. Unfortunately, we don't really get a choice. Since this death ridge pattern has lasted for at least 2-3 months, you would think the end of it is coming soon.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
well well well look likes jfv is on fb right now on the 28storms.com page asking questions??interesting he ain't doing it here maybe gave up finally lol

JFV stalks women and asks out random women he doesn't even know but thinks are cute on Facebook.
Quoting deaddude21:

Then explain to me why two of them 175-mph babies formed in the same spot about a month apart?


Because conditions were perfect. They will not be for Emily.
Quoting texwarhawk:


This I will guess on-- Most likely not. For it to hit DC it would have to
A.) Make landfall on the coast than only slightly re-curve and continue up the coast (best chance but not very strong)
B.) Turn north then get blocked and head back west (near 0% chance)
C.) Have another hurricane form to the north of it and go through the Fujiwara effect (Absolutely no chance and if it does happen I will literally eat a dead crow)


ROTFL
And yes...Gustav was no Katrina in the GOM. But if Katrina had regained Cat. 3 status and been going N or NNE instead of NW, New Orleans would've had a duplicate of Katrina at least.
Emily is pretty well organized now, I'm afraid. There is not even a hint of low level turning out ahead of the convection in RAMSDIS or shortwave imagery.

Quoting MississippiWx:


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. This will prevent any explosive development.

Also it should be noted that should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/near the SE US coast/north of the greater Antilles area, it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.
Quoting deaddude21:

JFV stalks women and asks out random women he doesn't even know but thinks are cute on Facebook.


How old is JFV lol I was always thinking he was some 30yr old living in a basement with lots of acne and nothing better to do but troll.
Quoting deaddude21:

JFV stalks women and asks out random women he doesn't even know but thinks are cute on Facebook.
Maybe he will ask lovejessicaa9 (Jason) for a date!
.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. Should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/East coast it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.

Death Ridge Dry Air (Skew-T from Coastal Corpus Cristi)

Quoting texwarhawk:


How old is JFV lol I was always thinking he was some 30yr old living in a basement with lots of acne and nothing better to do but troll.

lmao
Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe he will ask lovejessicaa9 (Jason) for a date!


You know I really don't think it's jason-- the grammar is way to advanced (not to be mean or anything just making an observation)
Quoting deaddude21:

That ridge is centered over Texas and the N. Central Gulf Coast represents the SE periphery, it could get eroded much more easily than it could in Texas...obviously that's why Don went poof as it made landfall.


You talk about major drama...what if Emily behaves similarily to what the latest GFS is suggesting and takes a track close to that of the BAM-S? I think some folks on this blog would truly lose their mind...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF AS OUR HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
If Emily gets in the Gulf...the waters are less than a degree cooler than 8/28/2005...same TCHP, loop eddy...anticyclone, so no shear...dry air could be a problem with the highs, but wasn't it a problem for Katrina as well?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because conditions were perfect. They will not be for Emily.
can they become perfect this year?
Quoting deaddude21:
If Emily gets in the Gulf...the waters are less than a degree cooler than 8/28/2005...same TCHP, loop eddy...anticyclone, so no shear...dry air could be a problem with the highs, but wasn't it a problem for Katrina as well?


That's why I said conditions aren't optimal to support Category 5's. The synoptic environment will not be anticyclonic in the Gulf. Does this look like an anticyclonic environment to you?
1657. ackee
LOOKSlike EMILY centre relocate under heavy convection might bet she stays south of DR track near HATI AND CUBA AREA guess we see
Quoting FrankZapper:
can they become perfect this year?


They can become perfect in any year.
Quoting texwarhawk:

Death Ridge Dry Air (Skew-T from Coastal Corpus Cristi)



Skew-T from Corpus Christi



Quoting KoritheMan:


That's why I said conditions aren't optimal to support Category 5's. The synoptic environment will not be anticyclonic in the Gulf. Does this look like an anticyclonic environment to you?

No...doesn't look anticyclonic to me, but if Emily should carry her anticyclone with her?
Would be good with some live reports from the islands.

BahaHurrican and Pottery maybe will come on later.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. This will prevent any explosive development.

Also it should be noted that should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/near the SE US coast/north of the greater Antilles area, it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.
Yup, the southeastern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.
Gustav may not have been Katrina but he was bad enough!

Emily sure is interesting.

I just wish this continual daily rain we have had for weeks would move on over to Texas and give them a break! I've had enough, lol.
There's such a fascination with Katrina-- I personally think if a had to choose a perfect storm it would be Wilma

I'm mostly afraid one day we'll have something like Muifa (spelling?) where a storm blows up from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in less than 12hrs only it happen just before making landfall-- That would absolutely be worst case scenario in my opinion. Some day it'll happen and I pray I am long gone by then.
1666. emguy
Quoting Randyman:


You talk about major drama...what if Emily behaves similarily to what the latest GFS is suggesting and takes a track close to that of the BAM-S? I think some folks on this blog would truly lose their mind...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF AS OUR HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.


I believe what they are referencing in the erosion of the ridge is in relation to the trough split we may be seeing taking shape. If so, there will be an upper level low over the western gulf, which will still protect the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama area from Emily...which will "if all this evolution proves true", be moving her way through the eastern quarter of the Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Florida on her way to getting picked up and yanked out by the next trough. But on that note...Stay tuned....
Quoting deaddude21:
I don't think Janiel is gay...just a weirdo, not sure about Jason though. It'd be more reasonable than him asking a white girl out in Spanish by calling her a "p**a", though.

Hey texwarhawk, that's not fair...I have acne! lol. I'm 17 though.


lol so do I and I'm 19 so I wouldn't stress too much.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, the southwestern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.
Evenin Miami

And you mean Southeastern flank of the ridge, right?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, the southwestern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.

I think we (Houston area) got extremely lucky with Ike. It could have been so much worse had it got its act together quicker after crossing Cuba. I still today preach that it was a Cat 3 strengthening up to landfall. Probably just because I went through it though.
Quoting texwarhawk:


lol so do I and I'm 19 so I wouldn't stress too much.

LOL...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Evenin Miami

And you mean Southeastern flank of the ridge, right?
Evenin/mornin!

Yessir, I meant southeastern. Fixed my post.
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?
Yeah...I'm on the boat that still believes the NHC was downcasting during Ike leaving it a Cat. 2 at landfall so people wouldn't take it seriously. But what can I do about it...I was 14...
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Gustav may not have been Katrina but he was bad enough!

Emily sure is interesting.

I just wish this continual daily rain we have had for weeks would move on over to Texas and give them a break! I've had enough, lol.


Believe it or not, we're far from free of the crippling drought:

Quoting RedStickCasterette:
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?


I personally wouldn't be concerned unless they follow that pattern for another 48-72hrs
Quoting deaddude21:

No...doesn't look anticyclonic to me, but if Emily should carry her anticyclone with her?


It's possible in the BAMS scenario, where she doesn't encounter any landmasses. However, that is unlikely at this point.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Evenin/mornin!

Yessir, I meant southeastern. Fixed my post.
ah yea, forgot it's like 4am over there for you guys. Only 12:58 here so it still feels like evening over here.

And alright, figured that's what you meant
Quoting texwarhawk:

I think we (Houston area) got extremely lucky with Ike. It could have been so much worse had it got its act together quicker after crossing Cuba. I still today preach that it was a Cat 3 strengthening up to landfall. Probably just because I went through it though.


I believe ya'll did too! Some of my close family members are still in that area and I was so worried.

We got lucky the same way here with Gustav. I moved here just in time for that sucker, lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Believe it or not, we're far from free of the crippling drought:


Drive I-10 west oh another few hundred miles and you'll see on our beautiful baked brown lawns what the definition of a drought is.
6z NAM initializes Emily in the correct location:

Quoting KoritheMan:


It's possible in the BAMS scenario, where she doesn't encounter any landmasses. However, that is unlikely at this point.

It's possible if Emily stays weak...
Kori, I almost say that chart is a liar regarding the drought here, lol. The BR area has had rain just about every day the past few weeks. My yard is a swamp!
I guess the next recon is at 8am?

1685. emguy
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?


There is a chance of concern in the gulf if trends continue and the trough split continues to show its face, but only in the eastern quarter. The Texas ridge and any trough split would proclude westward trends. This pattern is much, much different of a pattern than when there was a deep SE US ridge tied in with the Bermuda High like 2008 with Ike. Should be noted, the BAMS model represents shallow systems, i.e. BAM(S), which looks at possibilities for weak systems such as waves or disorganized shallow depressions and sheared systems. She's not a candidate right now for that, but the model will always be run to show the scenario.
Quoting deaddude21:

It's possible if Emily stays weak...


She's still likely to run into Hispaniola, though.
That track is obviously eastcasting because it would imply that Emily is about to take a WNW to NW turn almost immediately.
Personally, I was pulling for Don to do much more for poor Texas. When I was there in the Houston area in June, the heat and dryness was crazy.
Quoting KoritheMan:


She's still likely to run into Hispaniola, though.

Not if she continues due west or around 275-ish, she'll veer south.
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Kori, I almost say that chart is a liar regarding the drought here, lol. The BR area has had rain just about every day the past few weeks. My yard is a swamp!


We've had it here, too, but I notice it quickly recedes, which to me is an indication that the ground is still fairly dry.
Alright, I can't even hold my eyes open with my fingers anymore. See you guys later today.
Guadeloupe & Martinique radar:
Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


We've had it here, too, but I notice it quickly recedes, which to me is an indication that the ground is still fairly dry.


Haha yeah, it recedes and leaves tons of mud that my Shepherds love to dig and roll around in when I let them outside.

I get what you are saying though. One would think with the continual rain that the drought here would be gone.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Alright, I can't even hold my eyes open with my fingers anymore. See you guys later today.
Night. I'm still wayyyy too awake, lol.
Quoting deaddude21:

Not if she continues due west or around 275-ish, she'll veer south.


If the center has relocated to the east though, I doubt she will. Still a lot of variables to work out.
Thanks for everyone's input this evening/morning.

Need to try and get to sleep.
This is bizarre. If TS Emily doesnt jog to the WNW anytime soon, then rapid intensification looks to be likely.
ugh Comcast is giving me trouble I've only had internet for about 10 sec at a time every 5 min
lol 28storms.com says the center ahead of the convection???huh and its not stacked i dont see that lol
I believe this is the 3rd D-max in a row that main convection has dropped and new convection has started further west-- interesting.
Convection is forming near where convergence is strongest though.
rain band
Update coming soon!
1705. tea3781
When does Recon go out?
Miami NWS Discussion

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EMILY
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING TO THE WEST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES EMILY
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA AND THEN VERY CLOSE
TO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND REFLECTS THIS
SCENARIO...AND ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 64.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
UNTIL EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 020848
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
No change in strength and no longer forecast to attain hurricane strength.
read the last line of the discussion through
Gonna take a nap...probably be back for the Recon mission at 8a.m.
im out too be back recon comes in as well...night.
btw one more thing...NEW BLOG!!! good night
If Emily fails to make it to hurricane status, as is now predicted, this season would be somewhat of an anomaly. The only year in that span in which none of the first five named storms attained hurricane status was 2002, which didn't see a hurricane until Gustav formed in early September. From 1995 through 2011, there have been:

'A' storm: 4 hurricanes, 11 tropical storms, 1 subtropical storm

'B' storm: 6 hurricanes, 11 tropical storms

'C' storm: 5 hurricanes, 12 tropical storms

'D' storm: 11 hurricanes, 6 tropical storms

'E' storm: 9 hurricanes, 8 tropical storms

On average, over that time frame, the first five named storms have consisted of 2 hurricanes, 2.94 tropical storms, and 0.06 subtropical storms.

Just some idle pondering...
I think that Emily may be reforming her center further east
For all you Tampa people out there, has anyone checked put the new "virtual tour" on the NWS Tampa website? It's pretty neat if you're interested in seeing all the different positions and how the office is set up.
Looks like Emily will be changing up some of our weekend plans. It's a good practice run to make sure we are all ready for what the rest of the hurricane season can bring.