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Tropical Storm Emily continues to threaten Haiti; More extreme heat in Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily remains unorganized this morning, and continues to linger just south of Haiti, near 17.3°N, 72.3°W. Emily is 90 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti. Storm motion over the past 24 hours has been slow, varying between completely stopped and west to west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion (or lack thereof) is still something that the models aren't analyzing well. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity on the north side of Emily seems to be disrupted, possibly by the terrain of Hispaniola, but also potentially by the continued moderate shear to the north of the storm. Wind shear has weakened to the northwest of the storm in the past 24 hours, but it will probably not be enough to allow Emily to undergo any significant intensification. The layer of dry air that we've been talking about for the past few days has also all but dissipated to the west and north of the storm. As the National Hurricane Center has been forecasting, environmental conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for the storm. Satellite estimates of wind motion suggest that low level circulation in the storm has become very broad and extends north over Hispaniola, which indicates that there's potential for the storm to undergo a quick jump to the north, but overall the storm remains weak and this seems unlikely. Emily continues to be tilted to the east with height, but doesn't appear as sheared as yesterday morning.

Conditions in Hispaniola have surely deteriorated over the past 24 hours, however, thunderstorm activity appears to have weakened over the island this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the past 6 hours on the north side of the storm, which means that strong thunderstorms are no longer building high into the atmosphere. High resolution model forecasts (see Figure 1) have continued to predict that the heaviest rain will fall to the east of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west without taking a significant turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the most extreme rainfall in the storm. Overall, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected to fall, with local amounts up to 20 inches possible in higher terrain. Flash floods and mudslides are a serious threat.


Figure 1. Forecast radar and sea level pressure from the 06Z (2am EDT) run of the HWRF high resolution model. While I think that the model was initialized poorly and doesn't accurately represent where the storm will travel over the next 24 hours, I do think that the precipitation field is accurate. The strongest rain and winds have been on the east and north sides of the storm over the past couple of days. If Emily continues to move west before taking a significant turn to the northwest, Haiti could receive the strongest impact from the storm.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
Models continue to waver back and forth on Emily's forecast track. Yesterday evening, the HWRF model forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola and undergoing a close encounter with the Florida coastline. Last night, the National Hurricane Center wrote that "if Emily does not begin its northwestward turn soon…a watch could be required for parts of southern Florida today." Since the storm appears to be moving slightly more to the north than west this morning, this doesn't look like it will be necessary, although the forecast remains very uncertain. In today's 06Z runs, both the HWRF and the GFDL are probably forecasting Emily to move too far north in the next 12 hours. Given the present direction and speed of the storm, it's hard to see these two models' forecasts coming to fruition. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a turn to the northwest over the next 6 to 12 hours, with landfall in Haiti happening this afternoon. Beyond that, they forecast Emily to stay on a northwest course through the Bahamas, where Emily could restrengthen a bit before making a turn to the northeast on Sunday, although they qualify this forecast with the fact that it's very uncertain, and that the global models dissipate Emily after crossing Hispaniola. The official forecast track does not have Emily making any landfall in Florida, but the Miami to West Palm Beach area is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Interestingly, the models that have done the best job at predicting the track of Emily thus far are the less relied-on statistical track models—those that don't take into account any current atmospheric dynamics. If Emily remains on a west to west-northwest track today, we cannot rule out that it cross over a larger area of Cuba, approaching the southeast portion of Florida. However, given the amount of land interaction in this potential track, the probability of Emily remaining a tropical cyclone in this scenario is low.


Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emily at 10:15am EDT. The strongest thunderstorm activity is now in the southern portion of the storm. Thunderstorms over Hispaniola appeared to weaken this morning.

Typhoon Muifa

Typhoon Muifa continues to be a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite imagery shows a well developed storm that is moving west-northwest. Over the next day, Muifa is expect to turn to the northwest as it approaches China. Today's track forecast is more north and east of yesterday's, with a brief landfall just north of Shanghai, potentially as a category 3.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Central U.S. heatwave

The heat continues for the central U.S., where I've heard reports that local media in the region were canceling all of their outdoor shots because of the dangerous conditions. Here are some of yesterday's extreme temperatures, which were compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

Little Rock, Arkansas set an all-time record with 114°F (the old record was 112°F set in 1986). Fort Smith, Arkansas set an all time record of 115°F (the old record was 113°F set both Tuesday and previously in 1936).

State maximum air temperatures from Wednesday:

• Arkansas: 116° at Silver Hill (4° short of state all-time record)
• Oklahoma: 115° at Atoka
• Louisiana: 111° at Caney
• Texas: 111° at Fort Worth and Wichita Falls (that also had a record high minimum of 88° this morning)
• Missouri: 109° at Branson and Ava

The heat index is also at play in this heat wave; some incredible values recorded yesterday include 126° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 125° in Walnut Ridge, Arkansas, and 122° in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. The GFS continues to forecast heat index values around 120° in the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.

Angela

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow!

What the hell has the blog come to today??

Sucks about the old lady in DFW. My vote is charge them with manslaughter if caught. Shouldn't be that difficult of a case to prove their actions were directly linked to her demise.

Anyhow, I'm out of here before somebody rags my grammar or something. Check in tomorrow!
Quoting FLdewey:


Oh no... my tan!!!


Sorry dude! Maybe you can work on your guns instead...
2003. DSIjeff
You have got to be kidding me!

That was not planned, but eerie nonetheless.

Those models are not to be trusted.
Quoting MahFL:
Something HAS to be brewing over the Turks.


Recent NRL Windsat is inconclusive, at least to me.

Caution: you will get a security certificate warning from that link, it is a .mil site.
Quoting whepton3:


SE Palm Beach Co. just going with the standard 30-40 percent chance of rain through the weekend... should be interesting to see if that changes...

Seems like keeping it in that 30-40 range suggests that they're thinking it may develop and pull east of here.

Guessing it would be higher if they were thinking it stays weak and brings the surge in... hope it does... bone dry here.


Yeah I'm forecasting it just to sweep northwest as a trough of low pressure. That doesn't guarantee you'll get rain though. How are you bone dry? NOAA says the drought has been improving significantly from plenty of heavy rains over the State over the last several weeks.

Maybe you're one of the last few ares that is still missing it somehow, if so that sucks big time! Ive had more than 20 inches since the end of June over here in West Central Florida. everything is green and swampy with water every where. Ive been traveling around much of Central and South Florida is improvement. Lots of bright green, large amounts of water in all the creeks, rivers, and lakes. As well as large amounts of water back into lowlands in the everglades that were so dry in May that the ground was cracking. All Ive seen is huge improvement wherever I go.
One of these African waves is going to become a hurricane and then we can stop the spell checking and all start downcasting,doomcasting,fishcasting,westcasting all over again!
Emily may be gone, but its wave train is not-increasing surf central Florida northward and will be rideable for at least 3 days, even without further development. I'm on it Sunday with the offshore winds....local conditions can change drastically if Emily shows any signs of regeneration.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ida in 2009 did go into the gulf, but it was in November and waters were cooler then.
Is it right that while I typed that post I foregot all about Bonnie of last year?.Anywho over the last two year either shear/the high over the south has been the problem for tropical cyclones to get going in the gulf.
Quoting Jedkins01:


We all make errors sometimes. There's nothing wrong with typing fast, jut consider editing things before you actually post it, that will fix your problem :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We would really give some English teachers nightmares this morning with these posts. At least we can pretty well figure out what Taz means when he posts. LOL
My english teacher would come and hunt me down if she found out how I was spelling some of the time on here.And to believe I was a A student in english from middle to college.
i see some t.storms with Emily
Quoting whepton3:


H-u-m-o-r-o-u-s... not h-u-m-o-u-r-o-u-s.

Strike two.


Actually it is 'humourous' if you aren't American and 'humorous' if you are. Same ruels as for 'color' and 'colour'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour
Quoting whepton3:


H-u-m-o-r-o-u-s... not h-u-m-o-u-r-o-u-s.

Strike two.
English spelling

Quoting whepton3:



Looks like theirs for.

Or it looks like there's four.

You choose.
Should be "It looks like there are four." But subject-verb agreement is all shot to &*%# in English these days....

Why are we doing this again?????

Morning everybody.... hope u r enjoying ur day off...

(MUCM) 21-25N 077-51W 118M

Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob MUCM 051351Z 19007KT 130V210 9000 BKN020 29/24 Q1014


For what it is worth: Camaguey Airport on Cuba, a wind from 190 degrees (just west of due south)
2013. o22sail
Dern, this blog needs a storm.
I see the English stormtroopers are out in force.
2014. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
Check out Florida at the end of the run..Link
Hispaniola and Cuba may be Florida,s saving grace this season. Storms showing on the models keep trackin over that region. If that happens, the earthquake ravaged areas will undergo yet another catastrophe.
What's the naked swirl skirting the northern coast of Cuba, the low level circulation of remnants Emily, a ULL or something else?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh wow my feelings are hurt.Lol.Get real.I'm a grown women.
2017. FLdewey
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Sorry dude! Maybe you can work on your guns instead...


Ooo.... then I could post a shirtless wunderpic.

Awesome brah!
2018. angiest
1999 - Looking forward to Scotchtoberfest?
Quoting BahaHurican:
English spelling

Should be "It looks like there are four." But subject-verb agreement is all shot to &*%# in English these days....

Why are we doing this again?????

Morning everybody.... hope u r enjoying ur day off...



I had to do that to make the theirs for/there's four thing work... creative license.

Welcome to fun with language while waiting for something to happen.
2020. hahaguy
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Sorry dude! Maybe you can work on your guns instead...


You mad bro? LOL
Quoting BLee2333:
Wow!

What the hell has the blog come to today??

Sucks about the old lady in DFW. My vote is charge them with manslaughter if caught. Shouldn't be that difficult of a case to prove their actions were directly linked to her demise.

Anyhow, I'm out of here before somebody rags my grammar or something. Check in tomorrow!


The blog's been like this forever.......
Quoting FLdewey:


Oh no... my tan!!!


Better start buying water by the gallon and get those boards too. Remember, there's a MET who just came from Hawaii who is well known for being a great forecaster and thinks Emily will reorganize and slam Florida as a major hurricane. Oddly enough he's so good that people didn't want to reveal his name here lest we find where he used to work.

Simultaneously, the Prince of Zimbabwe also wants to offer you 2 million dollars because you were randomly selected to take part in his inheritance. This is no coincidence, and both sound to be the honest truth.
Cape Verde season is on the horizon
Quoting FLdewey:


Ooo.... then I could post a shirtless wunderpic.

Awesome brah!


You read my mind...


Three big lows on the NE
Quoting hahaguy:


You mad bro? LOL


It was a joke! Why would that sentence give any indication of me being mad? LOL!
Mission complete.
2030. hydrus
I shed a tear every time they tear up my weather manuscripts..;)
2032. FLdewey
Just enough cumulus to block my view of the launch.

Stupid moisture.
2033. DSIjeff
If Emily left-overs keep moving NW as indicated by the XTRP then they may get warmed up very close to shore.

Hope NHC is correct with their notion that the system will not impact CONUS.

(no disrespect to other areas)
2034. FLdewey
Quoting hahaguy:


You mad bro? LOL


Not THOSE kinds of guns. ;-)
2035. hahaguy
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It was a joke! Why would that sentence give any indication of me being mad? LOL!

Adding bro to the end of every sentence makes it better lol.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2867


I think he meant the heat wave....
Quoting IceCoast:


Wow. That area around 22-24N, 73-76W really took off with the daylight didn't it?
Looking a little better for Shanghai



Quoting washingtonian115:
Is it right that while I typed that post I foregot all about Bonnie of last year?.Anywho over the last two year either shear/the high over the south has been the problem for tropical cyclones to get going in the gulf. My english teacher would come and hunt me down if she found out how I was spelling some of the time on here.And to believe I was a A student in english from middle to college.


Don't worry I'm not criticizing you, I know very well educated people that don't always post accurately, its ok, we won't judge you for it, or at least I won't haha.

I used to be really bad about it too, you just have to make a pattern of correcting your errors before posting. Its not like posts won't have mistakes if you do, but it will help to filter them. If I posted all the time without editing, everything would look really, really bad. I type fast too and it comes out a mess at first. Sort of how in college, you write the paper first to get it down a rough draft, then edit it to make it easier to ready and more grammatically correct.

I still sometimes mess up even if I proof read, because sometimes I miss stuff when I proof read my comments too.
2041. MahFL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is it right that while I typed that post I foregot all about Bonnie of last year?.Anywho over the last two year either shear/the high over the south has been the problem for tropical cyclones to get going in the gulf.My english teacher would come and hunt me down if she found out how I was spelling some of the time on here.And to believe I was a A student in english from middle to college.


I can not resist it...
No space before the A, do not start a sentance with "And", use "an" not "a" before a word begining with the letter "A".

If I made any mistakes I don't care !...so there.
2042. FLdewey
Quoting hahaguy:

Adding bro to the end of every sentence makes it better lol.


I think that only works if you have "dude" in your handle.
Quoting whepton3:


I had to do that to make the theirs for/there's four thing work... creative license.

Welcome to fun with language while waiting for something to happen.
Fun with language????? There's no such thing!!!!


LOL..... Ayup.... things are really slow on here... feels like a vacation...

Man, I cringe sometimes at the errors here. But hey - spelling is often the biggest writing weakness people have, and even extremely skilled and intelligent people continue to spell poorly. And I can live with the mixed homonyms - there and their and they're and stuff.

It's the no punctuation I can't take.... lol....

Anyhoo [I meant to ask Wash115, isn't "anyhoo spelled with two o's??? important question] Weather here has been pretty much what it has been like since Wed; partly cloudy and breezy. And to think we were supposed be getting some serious rain today... now looks like tomorrow or Sat night at best.
Quoting NavarreMark:


I thought the stormtroopers were Germans.


Quoting FLdewey:
Just enough cumulus to block my view of the launch.

Stupid moisture.


Pretty clear down here in Boca... sometimes when they get high enough you can see them headed out over the ATL.

Night shuttle launches were spectacular here... ahh the good ol' days.
2046. MahFL
Do we have a TD yet ?
2048. HarryMc
Quoting DSIjeff:
If Emily left-overs keep moving NW as indicated by the XTRP then they may get warmed up very close to shore.

Hope NHC is correct with their notion that the system will not impact CONUS.

(no disrespect to other areas)


The closest model I've seen so far is the HWRF just coming out; has it 988mb bouncing off the east FL coast then out to sea.
Quoting overwash12:
One of these African waves is going to become a hurricane and then we can stop the spell checking and all start downcasting,doomcasting,fishcasting,westcasting all over again!

what a BOLD statement. LOL
2050. SQUAWK
Quoting MahFL:


I can not resist it...
No space before the A, do not start a sentance with "And", use "an" not "a" before a word begining with the letter "A".

If I made any mistakes I don't care !...so there.


An obvious glutton for punishment.
Ummm.... what did I write in post 2024 that was so offensive to people??? Are we afraid of grammar?

[Ahem]
2052. MahFL
Part of the problem is Americans think they speak English....which they don't.
2053. JFV2011
Good morning.
So it's spelled "funny" either way...   ;)
Quoting OviedoWatcher:


Actually it is 'humourous' if you aren't American and 'humorous' if you are. Same ruels as for 'color' and 'colour'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour

Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't worry I'm not criticizing you, I know very well educated people that don't always post accurately, its ok, we won't judge you for it, or at least I won't haha.

I used to be really bad about it too, you just have to make a pattern of correcting your errors before posting. Its not like posts won't have mistakes if you do, but it will help to filter them. If I posted all the time without editing, everything would look really, really bad. I type fast too and it comes out a mess at first. Sort of how in college, you write the paper first to get it down a rough draft, then edit it to make it easier to ready and more grammatically correct.

I still sometimes mess up even if I proof read, because sometimes I miss stuff when I proof read my comments too.
I use google chrome to see my mistakes.But sometimes my eyes go to that "post comment" and then bam!!.Their it is.
Quoting MahFL:


I can not resist it...
No space before the A, do not start a sentance with "And", use "an" not "a" before a word begining with the letter "A".

If I made any mistakes I don't care !...so there.
Lol.
Quoting Progster:


I think he meant the heat wave....
I though poof was to ignore someone.If he didn't mean it then I apoligize.
I heard much discussion about English pronouncation of humor among the grammar _____(whoops, this word might be offensive to some people so it's a blank instead) so will you please grammar _____ ignore and stop the grammar war?
Now, back to topic, anyone found a LLC in Zombie Emily? i think it's just on the bay (or gulf) thingy on Hispaniola.
2057. hydrus
Cant see it here, but if the air around that little spin just north of the east central Cuban coast was not so dry, we may have had something..
2059. Grothar
Quoting MahFL:


I can not resist it...
No space before the A, do not start a sentance with "And", use "an" not "a" before a word begining with the letter "A".

If I made any mistakes I don't care !...so there.


You missed a few, but that is OK.
Quoting MahFL:
Part of the problem is Americans think they speak English....which they don't.
If you have much interaction with English people you would know that most of them don't speak English either.
Quoting floodzonenc:
So it's spelled "funny" either way...   ;)



That's a phunny post.
2063. angiest
Quoting MahFL:
Do we have a TD yet ?


It's still training camp, not even pre-season, so no touchdowns yet.

Oh, wait, you mean a depression? Nope, not so far as I can tell.

:D
2064. hahaguy
I like to refer to our language as Americanese.
Quoting NavarreMark:


I thought the stormtroopers were Germans.


Did someone say stormtrooper? LOL
Well, I'm doing other stuff while the blog is slow... ya'll have a good one, now...
2067. Grothar
Quoting Vincent4989:
I heard much discussion about English pronouncation of humor among the grammar _____(whoops, this word might be offensive to some people so it's a blank instead) so will you please grammar _____ ignore and stop the grammar war?
Now, back to topic, anyone found a LLC in Zombie Emily? i think it's just on the bay (or gulf) thingy on Hispaniola.


That should read, "pronunciation".
Quoting BahaHurican:
Fun with language????? There's no such thing!!!!


LOL..... Ayup.... things are really slow on here... feels like a vacation...

Man, I cringe sometimes at the errors here. But hey - spelling is often the biggest writing weakness people have, and even extremely skilled and intelligent people continue to spell poorly. And I can live with the mixed homonyms - there and their and they're and stuff.

It's the no punctuation I can't take.... lol....

Anyhoo [I meant to ask Wash115, isn't "anyhoo spelled with two o's??? important question] Weather here has been pretty much what it has been like since Wed; partly cloudy and breezy. And to think we were supposed be getting some serious rain today... now looks like tomorrow or Sat night at best.


Does feel like a brief lull in the action. Still watching Cuba for signs of life.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If you have much interaction with English people you would know that most of them don't speak English either.
WTF OMG TNT.TTB.Lol.Hehe.The modern english.Lol.
elongated surface low pressure elongated from sw to thene,from jamacia to just south of grand bahama,moving wnw i wonder if the ukmet was right when it showed a closed isobar just near the keys around tonight time period,i wouldnt rule out a td forming justvsouth of the peninsula tonightbor tomorrow,then moving nw and then north to ne exiting the state up near daytona and then out to sea to the nne jmo
2071. DSIjeff
22.8N, 77.5W

check the loop, speed it up and pay attention to the last few frames...

Link

Juno is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral in 14 mins. Weather is a go. Juno will do some weather observation on the planet Jupiter in ~5 years if all goes well. Awesome live feed here.
Quoting whepton3:


Does feel like a brief lull in the action. Still watching Cuba for signs of life.


Raul is doing his best with his brother still around. ;)
Quoting MahFL:
Part of the problem is Americans think they speak English....which they don't.
By all means, please enlighten me in the language I have been using to communicate.
Going to take the kids to K.D tomorrow.They've been bothering me a whole lot now all summer.It's about 90 miles from D.C and has some of the most extreme rids found anywhere in the country.
2076. hydrus
Quoting stillwaiting:
elongated surface low pressure elongated from sw to thene,from jamacia to just south of grand bahama,moving wnw i wonder if the ukmet was right when it showed a closed isobar just near the keys around tonight time period,i wouldnt rule out a td forming justvsouth of the peninsula tonightbor tomorrow,then moving nw and then north to ne exiting the state up near daytona and then out to sea to the nne jmo
Could happen. Especially if the air gets wet and shear stops..
2077. angiest
Quoting hahaguy:
I like to refer to our language as Americanese.


But you Yankees talk funny to us. You sound like ferners.
Dewey... if you're really committed to the shirtless look... here's a possible avatar for ya :)


2079. Matt74
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
never mind there seems to be something wrong with my barometer
As Ike said earlier, YOU ARE IN THE CLEAR!
Quoting washingtonian115:
WTF OMG TNT.TTB.Lol.Hehe.The modern english.Lol.
OK, I'm getting scared.... this actually makes sense to me... Ahhhhhh! [runs screaming from the room]
Quoting DSIjeff:
22.8N, 77.5W

check the loop, speed it up and pay attention to the last few frames...

Link



I sped it up and then just rocked the last half of the run... I see it.
Quoting BLee2333:
Wow!

What the hell has the blog come to today??

Sucks about the old lady in DFW. My vote is charge them with manslaughter if caught. Shouldn't be that difficult of a case to prove their actions were directly linked to her demise.

Anyhow, I'm out of here before somebody rags my grammar or something. Check in tomorrow!


Felony if it leads to death or risk of health damage.
2083. MahFL
If it's the Jags...the TD's mostly come from the defense, as our QB is not very good.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Raul is doing his best with his brother still around. ;)


+173

Nice.
2085. angiest
Quoting Skeptic33:


Felony if it leads to death or risk of health damage.


And why do I have this feeling they were copper thieves, and not interested in the AC itself.
2086. DSIjeff
Quoting whepton3:


I sped it up and then just rocked the last half of the run... I see it.


You think?

No way.
Quoting BahaHurican:
OK, I'm getting scared.... this actually makes sense to me... Ahhhhhh! [runs screaming from the room]
Lol.It says What the_____ oh my gosh that's not true. Take that back.(Laughing).
2088. angiest
Quoting MahFL:
If it's the Jags...the TD's mostly come from the defense, as our QB is not very good.


Our newly vamped (it can't be revamped, since we didn't have much of one before) defense will will be punishing him soon enough.
2089. Ninj4
Working a possible scrub for Juno atm. One of the tanks dipped low on operational pressure. They're working it now.
Quoting Skyepony:
Juno is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral in 14 mins. Weather is a go. Juno will do some weather observation on the planet Jupiter in ~5 years if all goes well. Awesome live feed here.


Thanks for that link - way cool! Will be able to see it out my window as well
Quoting DSIjeff:


You think?

No way.


Probably not a darn thing there, but with a little imagination you can see a spin... if it were, my guess is it has a long way to go.
2092. MahFL
On IR the blob in the Bahamas is getting bigger.
2093. SQUAWK
Quoting Skyepony:
Juno is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral in 14 mins. Weather is a go. Juno will do some weather observation on the planet Jupiter in ~5 years if all goes well. Awesome live feed here.


Thanks for the link Skye.
2094. DSIjeff
It's nothing!

But it looked cool for a second.
Current trajectory of that surface low near 22.8N 77.5W takes it just west of Andros Island, then into the Gulf Stream east of South Florida... no current convection around it, therefore unlikely to develop anytime real soon. Plus it is a broad/elongated circulation at that.
2096. tea3781
Quoting whepton3:


I sped it up and then just rocked the last half of the run... I see it.



Yeah there is a 1011 Low there if you click on Fronts
Quoting AegirsGal:
By all means, please enlighten me in the language I have been using to communicate.
As it is called in the Caribbean most English speaking people speak Patois.
Quoting sailfish01:


Thanks for that link - way cool! Will be able to see it out my window as well


I've got some cumulus shooting up here, still some blue sky looking that way. Camera is ready..

Squawk~ these feeds keep getting sweeter..
2100. Ninj4
Juno launch team working another anomaly, this time with charge cycles to the main stage.
Quoting tea3781:



Yeah there is a 1011 Low there if you click on Fronts


Was just sitting there staring at and did just that.

Thanks... oh well, guess it's where it should be if it ever was.

The kid had a future coming from Cuba like that and making a name for herself in the States. Such a waste.
2102. DSIjeff
Looking where the models were taking Emily and her energy, perhaps that little spin north of Cuba was something:

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Hmmm, I get on, go back to read and catch up and most of what I see is spelling/grammer/punctuation lessons. As a teacher all I will say is while one may not like taking the time to fix all said education skills, executing them correctly will have people take you more seriously.

So what is the news on Emily and the wave off Africa.

We are once again in for a triple digit heat day with excessive heat warnings.


grammer??
Quoting Patrap:
NASA TV coverage of the Atlas JUNO Launch to Jupiter


Was just watching... a mission to Jupiter that will be tracked during launch from a station in Jupiter Inlet, FL.

Weird.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ummm.... what did I write in post 2024 that was so offensive to people??? Are we afraid of grammar?

[Ahem]


I know! I had what I considered to be a clever post, germane to Emily removed yesterday. This blog would not BE BUSY if the same people would stop beating a dead horse!
2106. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:
Looking where the models were taking Emily and her energy, perhaps that little spin north of Cuba was something:



What's really interesting is that it looks like the BAM's tracks from yesterday (entering the Gulf) may not have been entirely unreasonable (even if they didn't verify).
we now have a 1011mb surface low analyized on the noaa ssd floater for emily just off the north central coast of cuba to the sse of grand bahama
Quoting Skyepony:


I've got some cumulus shooting up here, still some blue sky looking that way. Camera is ready..

Squawk~ these feeds keep getting sweeter..

T-4 hold now - some anomoly. Beautiful day for a launch. I can see some small cumulus in that direction. Waiting for them to come off hold.....
2109. angiest
Low-end moderate quake off Oregon:


== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates: 44.144N, 128.761W
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Depth: 37 km
Universal Time (UTC): 5 Aug 2011 15:10:07
Time near the Epicenter: 5 Aug 2011 06:10:07
Local standard time in your area: 5 Aug 2011 09:10:07
Looks like another 5 minute hold on the Atlas rocket.  Have been lurking a bit and am a member since 2005.  Don't seem to recognize too many folks on here during the Emily episode.  Is this still recognized as the best tropical blog on the net? Does anyone on here know?  Thanks.
Quoting Bobsled27:


grammer??
That's why we are toast. Tenure, anyone?
Quoting angiest:
Low-end moderate quake off Oregon:


== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates: 44.144N, 128.761W
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Depth: 37 km
Universal Time (UTC): 5 Aug 2011 15:10:07
Time near the Epicenter: 5 Aug 2011 06:10:07
Local standard time in your area: 5 Aug 2011 09:10:07
Possible a pre-shock oh no DOOM
Quoting Bobsled27:


grammer??
LOL how ironic it's grammar
Seabreeze just kicked in here in Melbourne. The coast to about 3 miles inland is now clear. A good day to view a launch. I am 35 miles South of the Launch Pad.
2115. DSIjeff
Quoting DSIjeff:
22.8N, 77.5W

check the loop, speed it up and pay attention to the last few frames...

Link

Quoting stillwaiting:
we now have a 1011mb surface low analyized on the noaa ssd floater for emily just off the north central coast of cuba to the sse of grand bahama


is that near the location I mentioned earlier?
2116. MahFL
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Hmmm, I get on, go back to read and catch up and most of what I see is spelling/grammer/punctuation lessons.


Members of the Jury, I rest my case.

What do you teach ? I hope it's not bomb disposal.....j/k.
Quoting DSIjeff:
Looking where the models were taking Emily and her energy, perhaps that little spin north of Cuba was something:



OMG, the XTRP is not a modem model has me in it's sights.
2118. hydrus
The UKMET is interesting..Link
Quoting FLdewey:
Just enough cumulus to block my view of the launch.

Stupid moisture.


Same here, dangit.
2120. hydrus
2121. DSIjeff
Looks like that spin was something!

Very interesting.
Quoting DSIjeff:


is that near the location I mentioned earlier?


Roughly... someone suggested it as I was looking at it and I clicked on fronts... you'll see it right about where you had it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same here, dangit.
another hold these atlas's sure shake the house
2124. DSIjeff
Quoting PcolaDan:


OMG, the XTRP is not a modem model has me in it's sights.


It's a dial-up. Old school.

We have new spin north of north central Cuba.
Does anyone have a image of the waves out in the Atlantic or coming off of Africa? Just wondering would just like to see if anything was trying to develop out there.

sheri



76.5W/22N 1011MB 25Kts.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same here, dangit.


Where are you at Cyber? Hoping when it gets high enough I can see it in Boca... got clouds in that direction... but if it's on the same general trajectory as a shuttle it should clear them.
2130. DSIjeff
Quoting whepton3:


Roughly... someone suggested it as I was looking at it and I clicked on fronts... you'll see it right about where you had it.


yeah I went back and looked, and it appears as if the coord's were to the nne of the noted L, which would make sense I guess.

New vort map from CIMMS doesn't say much, but I think that is the spin to keep our eye on.
I see a tiny spin at 9.5N 52W on the Central Atl. visible.
Four high school football players & one assistant coach died this week in the south due to heat.
This is going to be interesting watching Emily come back alive. Still good chance to get TS off the east coast or perhaps brushing the coast like UKMET shows
when the delta blew up just off the pad about ten yrs ago a sight i will never forget a neighbor was in the bunker down below it and said debris fell right on them
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Does anyone have a image of the waves out in the Atlantic or coming off of Africa? Just wondering would just like to see if anything was trying to develop out there.

sheri


Don't have the straight link... and I don't know if you've seen Levi's tidbit for the day... he has some of it:

Link
I'm not afraid baha.My english skills are terribe, thats why i have 3 secretaries and 2 ad min aides that correct all my errors before i hold my meetings.Not much of a typist either lol.When i try to type fast the structure gets worst lol.
2137. K8eCane
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Models shifting west since last runs...





well thats nice but dont their have to be something for them to shift?
Quoting Skyepony:
Four high school football players & one assistant coach died this week in the south due to heat.


In the fall of 1990, when I was starting my senior football season in SC, I vaguely remember that happening then.

I just remember suddenly they stopped letting us wear helmets so prax was no contact... very sad story this year as football gets going.
Quoting whepton3:


Where are you at Cyber? Hoping when it gets high enough I can see it in Boca... got clouds in that direction... but if it's on the same general trajectory as a shuttle it should clear them.


Very eastern part of Hillsborough County, almost into Polk County. Its a straight east launch though, shuttle goes NE during launch to ISS.. or used too I should say.
Quoting DSIjeff:


yeah I went back and looked, and it appears as if the coord's were to the nne of the noted L, which would make sense I guess.

New vort map from CIMMS doesn't say much, but I think that is the spin to keep our eye on.


If it does amount to anything... innocuous chit chat around here goes out the window and this place will be a zoo tonight.
2142. CJ5
There is some very vigorous but broad circulation with ex-emily. An area of interest is around 23/78. If any consolidation occurs the waters and shear environment is favorable. This area could miss land and who knows....

Well we do need something to watch right now....
2143. hydrus
The trough has flattened out. The wave east of the Windwards is flaring up a bit..
2144. Grothar
Looking better

2145. txjac
Hot in Houston, Hot in Texas

Our company just received the following:

ERCOT has declared an energy demand state of emergency in Texas. They have specifically requested that XXXXX reduce energy usage wherever possible otherwise rolling brownouts will begin occurring. We are just one of many companies that they have sent this request to. This will be ongoing for several days. I have attached a list of best practices that may provide some ideas of actions that may be taken. I am sure the manufacturing and service facilities have others that they may employ.


Someone please send us some rain and cooler weather!
Quoting angiest:
Low-end moderate quake off Oregon:


== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates: 44.144N, 128.761W
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Depth: 37 km
Universal Time (UTC): 5 Aug 2011 15:10:07
Time near the Epicenter: 5 Aug 2011 06:10:07
Local standard time in your area: 5 Aug 2011 09:10:07


Oregon needs a bunch more of these. The historical records say this region is overdue for a 9.
Morning All.

Any developments, thoughts on REMEmily?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very eastern part of Hillsborough County, almost into Polk County. Its a straight east launch though, shuttle goes NE during launch to ISS.. or used too I should say.


It's a much different sight-line from there than it is over here...

I think for me with an eastern trajectory vs. NE it should appear to climb higher into the sky since it's not trailing away north...

Looks like they're pushing this hold another five mins. I'm not sure how far they can go before they lose the window... may not even light the candle today.

And if the weather goes in the tank, who knows when they can do it again.
2149. Grothar
Quoting Skyepony:
Four high school football players & one assistant coach died this week in the south due to heat.
Husband had to make an appt with our Dr. because he works outside in this unrelenting heat, and is getting some strange heat related rash.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

Any developments, thoughts on REMEmily?


Still floppin' and twitchin'...

Signs of life on the Sat. loops.

Could be nothing... but then again...

It's Emily, so nobody really knows.
Okinawa Radar
2153. Grothar
2154. 10Speed
Quoting MahFL:


I can not resist it...
No space before the A, do not start a sentance with "And", use "an" not "a" before a word begining with the letter "A".

If I made any mistakes I don't care !...so there.


I can't resist either. :)

It is absolutely permissible to start a sentence with And or But. Yes, I know your English teacher taught you that it's wrong. She/he forgot to explain something to you. And and But to start a sentence is incorrect in "formal" writing. It is completely acceptable in an informal setting. This weather blog "is not" a formal setting.

Let's move on to "a" and "an" :

You use "a" when the next word starts with a consonant SOUND. You use "an" when the next word starts with a vowel SOUND. SOUND is the key word. It's "an" hour, "a" history, "a" union. It's all predicated on consonant/vowel sounds rather than consonants/vowels.
Quoting westpalmer:
Looks like another 5 minute hold on the Atlas rocket.  Have been lurking a bit and am a member since 2005.  Don't seem to recognize too many folks on here during the Emily episode.  Is this still recognized as the best tropical blog on the net? Does anyone on here know?  Thanks.


Yeah there's still alot of regulars on here like Press,Atmo,Tampaspin,MH09,Floodman,Pottery,BaHa,NR amy,Aquake, there's still a lot. Plus yes WU is the best Tropical Blog out here in cyberspace. Just right know Emily kinda went Poof like Don did and everyone talking about grammar. But when something is stirring they all get serious and talk about the storm,but there is a exception when them durn trolls try to disrupt the blog, but when we see a troll causing trouble we just ! and - them and they'll be gone when enough folks do it. We try not to quote them. Just right know there's a little break.

sheri
Nice to have a full range of 1km products for REMEMILY available now.
2157. Patrap
JUNO/Atlas has cleared the Helium issue,,and as soon as the Helo's scoot away a couple of Boats within the Launch Restricted area,,the RSO should clear the Range for Launch.
I see the circulation of ex-Emily moving closer to the Florida Peninsula. It could enter into the Gulf Of Mexico moving between Cuba and Florida.
2160. oakland
I just heard there is about 39 min. left in the Atlas launch window.
Quoting Grothar:
Looking better



Could that blowup to the NE of the low be the beginnings of the much-sought-after/dreaded rapid intensification?
Juno
Launch Date: Aug. 5
Launch Time: 11:34 am to 12:43 pm EDT
Launch Site: Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.

NASAKennedy #Juno The technical issue has been cleared. We are just waiting for a "Go" from the Range after the stray boat has cleared the area. 27 seconds ago · reply · retweet · favorite


NASAKennedy #Juno We are cautiously optimistic that Juno will still get its launch today. 6 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

NASAKennedy #Juno The source of the Centaur helium system issue has located, but now Range is No-Go due to a boat in the restricted area off the coast. 7 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

pouring rain again, 6 days in a row. Forecasters need to realize its August, not late May. They keep giving us a 20 to 30% forecast which is quite a bit drier than normal, but we keeping getting the normal buildup with deep moisture in place.

They are stuck in the 2010 mindset I think! lol
2164. MahFL
Quoting Skyepony:
Four high school football players & one assistant coach died this week in the south due to heat.


Wow, it's very hot out, ease off a bit.....
I'd heard of one but not 5 deaths, so needless too.
2165. JFV2011
=(
2166. Grothar
2167. oakland
Quoting Jedkins01:
pouring rain again, 6 days in a row. Forecasters need to realize its August, not late May. They keep giving us a 20 to 30% forecast which is quite a bit drier than normal, but we keeping getting the normal buildup with deep moisture in place.

They are stuck in the 2010 mindset I think! lol


If you don't mind saying, where are you? FL west coast?
Does anyone know what NOAA sees in the area SE of LA and why they would color it purple? I hope it develops and
at least gives us some cloud cover, but what are they seeing that I'm not?
Also, just so you guys know, there is a marked 1011 mb low with the rough, low center is over Cuba, and which direction is it moving? Not north where the models say it will go, but west-northwest towards the Florida keys.

Poor models just can't get it right with this system, lol.
NASAKennedy #Juno The countdown clock has been reset with a new liftoff time of 12:13 p.m. EDT! 31 seconds ago · reply · retweet · favorite
Whoever (whomever?) started the English lesson on this blog should be mashed.
2172. oakland
A new T-0 should be 12:13PM for launch.
Quoting oakland:


If you don't mind saying, where are you? FL west coast?


Yep! Sure am.
2174. Patrap
2175. angiest
Quoting shred3590:


Oregon needs a bunch more of these. The historical records say this region is overdue for a 9.


At a rough guess, you need in excess of 10^6 earthquakes of this size to release the energy of a 9. Each one step increase in the scale (4.5 to 5.5, for instance) is ~10^1.5 times the energy.
2176. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:
Hot in Houston, Hot in Texas

Our company just received the following:

ERCOT has declared an energy demand state of emergency in Texas. They have specifically requested that XXXXX reduce energy usage wherever possible otherwise rolling brownouts will begin occurring. We are just one of many companies that they have sent this request to. This will be ongoing for several days. I have attached a list of best practices that may provide some ideas of actions that may be taken. I am sure the manufacturing and service facilities have others that they may employ.


Someone please send us some rain and cooler weather!


Yeah we got them for 5 mins(not sure how that helps, 30+ mins sure) last night in the Metroplex...
2177. hydrus
2178. Grothar
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoever (whomever?) started the English lesson on this blog should be mashed.


Did you mean smashed?
2179. Patrap
The new LLC forming below Great Abaco needs to be monitored as if that develops,,and slides Nw,by Wnw ,,its gonna traverse the greatest TCHP in the GOM.





2180. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:


Nice graphic, hydrus.
2181. 7544
morming all looks like ex emily is starting to get some new convection should be interesting around the 2pm area to see if this just might try to fire up again she likes that time lol
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I see the circulation of ex-Emily moving closer to the Florida Peninsula. It could enter into the Gulf Of Mexico moving between Cuba and Florida.



Yes its not going where models say, as usual, its head towards the Florida keys, its should then steer up the eastern gulf moving close to the West Coast of Florida. Even though it fell apart, the remnant low is still going where I thought, so far that is anyway.
2183. Patrap
JUNO/Atlas wont make the :13 past target seems as they working some loose ends of the anomaly discussion.
2184. Grothar
Quoting whepton3:


Could that blowup to the NE of the low be the beginnings of the much-sought-after/dreaded rapid intensification?


Hard to say. I don't expect rapid intensification. However, conditions are becoming a little more conducive for further development, perhaps to at least depression status. Conditions can be very tricky in that area.
Quoting Patrap:
JUNO/Atlas wont make the :13 past target seems as they working some loose ends of the anomaly discussion.

JUNO is lifting off today? Is that the one that is going to investigate Jupiter?
2186. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


Hard to say. I don't expect rapid intensification. However, conditions are becoming a little more conducive for further development, perhaps to at least depression status. Conditions can be very tricky in that area.


Indeed... warm water though... and if shear lightens up... who knows.
Good here

2190. CJ5
The area I am watching is S of Andros. Is seems to my eye it has the best spin and appears to be concentrating. Is this the same area others are watching?
Quoting Patrap:
The new LLC forming below Great Abaco needs to be monitored as if that develops,,and slide Nw,by Wnw ,,its gonna traverse the greatest TCHP in the GOM.







So even though the ocean surface temps are higher in the near shore waters they are shallower and thus have less total heat. Is that right Pat? How are those data gathered? I'm wondering how we measure the depth of the heat content in open waters.

Pat, how is the youngun' doing? Hope all is well.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

JUNO is lifting off today? Is that the one that is going to investigate Jupiter?


Yep... they're working some issues now... looking like they may be shooting for a 12:25 EDT launch.
I see 3 blob's associated with Emily.

1)over eastern Cuba
2)over south west bahamas
3)over eastern bahamas

it seems the 1st area is moving west across southern Cuba. the 2nd moving north west towards Florida and the 3rd moving north. They all seem to have some rotation to them.

Which area may develope and where will it go?
2195. Patrap
New Launch Target @ :25 past the Hour.
2196. Guysgal
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoever (whomever?) started the English lesson on this blog should be mashed.


Spelling lessons might be helpful, synonyms and homonyms refreshers might be in order as well. Just saying!
Quoting Jedkins01:
pouring rain again, 6 days in a row. Forecasters need to realize its August, not late May. They keep giving us a 20 to 30% forecast which is quite a bit drier than normal, but we keeping getting the normal buildup with deep moisture in place.

They are stuck in the 2010 mindset I think! lol
,its actually 20-30% of the forecast area should recieve rains,not a particular area,but the amount of coverage as a area...hope that makes sense
Hey Yall. As far as Emily for the moment, you can get fired up looking at all the nice explosive colors on some of Sat Loops (particularly the Rainbow Loops), but I am keeping an eye on the high rez vis loop (while we have good daylight today) and not too much happening yet although there appears to be the beginnings (again) of a very broad circulation North of the Eastern Tip of Cuba. However, you can also see the moderate sheer preventing any organization of the circulation for the moment......I don't see it happening anytime today.
2199. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, how is the youngun' doing? Hope all is well.


He's good as expected for a 18 yr old confined to bed with a Ice Water cooling system running around da knee.

Hope ya cool over dere.

Quoting Guysgal:


Spelling lessons might be helpful, synonyms and homonyms refreshers might be in order as well. Just saying!
Who cares!
2201. oakland
Thanks for the link for the NASA launch, Very interesting and much appreciated.
that ulll,could help ventalate anything that might rredevelop w/emily
Not near as cool as that knee but, of course, well make it through. Prayers go out for a speedy recovery.
Quoting CJ5:
The area I am watching is S of Andros. Is seems to my eye it has the best spin and appears to be concentrating. Is this the same area others are watching?


2205. Ninj4
Clear for Launch at 12:25.
17.2n71.7w, 18.0n72.8w, 19.6n73.2w, 20.9n73.9w had been re-evaluated&altered for the 12pmGMT ATCF
17.2n71.9w, 18.1n73.3w, 20.0n73.8w, 20.9n74.5w, 22.0n76.5w are now the most recent positions

TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 24.8mph(40k/h) on a heading of 300.8degrees(WNW)

Copy&paste 17.0n71.2w, 17.2n71.9w-18.1n73.3w, 18.1n73.3w-20.0n73.8w, 20.0n73.8w-20.9n74.5w, 20.9n74.5w-22.0n76.5w, isj, tpa, eyw, ccc, dct, 20.9n74.5w-24.598n81.56w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over SugarloafKey,Florida ~10&1/2 hours from now
2208. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
The new LLC forming below Great Abaco needs to be monitored as if that develops,,and slides Nw,by Wnw ,,its gonna traverse the greatest TCHP in the GOM.







Hey Patrap are talking about the llc at 78.5W 23N?

Anyone have any shear charts right now. Much apprieciated!
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I see the circulation of ex-Emily moving closer to the Florida Peninsula. It could enter into the Gulf Of Mexico moving between Cuba and Florida.


I may be mistaken, but didn't someone say that there's a high out there and she couldn't become anything if she got into to the GOM? I don't know if I said this right. It really seems like Emily just don't have what it takes to become a Hurricane of any kind.

sheri
12:25 E.S.T. launch.
Quoting Guysgal:


Spelling lessons might be helpful, synonyms and homonyms refreshers might be in order as well. Just saying!
#1926....lol!
Quoting stillwaiting:
,its actually 20-30% of the forecast area should recieve rains,not a particular area,but the amount of coverage as a area...hope that makes sense


Oh I know all about it, I'm going to school for this stuff remember, or did you not know?

My point is the coverage overall has been much higher this wet season than they forecast. If we actually got the amount of rain/storm coverage that they've forecasted overall, there would be talks of the drought getting even worse in Florida.

I know what 20 to 30% forecast looks like. They just have a huge fear of showing high rain chances this rainy season or something strange like that. Their forecasts are closer to what we had last year which was well below normal. Even when almost the entire area gets heavy rains of an inch or more they still don't want to put chances higher than 60%. The highest Ive seen is 70% and this whole area got widespread 3 to 5 inches.

Quoting MahFL:


No I did not, I was being lazy, which is different from a typo or genuine spelling error. This a blog not an English Language exam.


Kill by the sword, die by the sword! :)
2216. angiest
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I may be mistaken, but didn't someone say that there's a high out there and she couldn't become anything if she got into to the GOM? I don't know if I said this right. It really seems like Emily just don't have what it takes to become a Hurricane of any kind.

sheri


Skirting the west coast of Florida or the western Gulf both appear to be *possibilities* at this point:



Obviously, she has to get there and it is certainly possible this will close off before she does.
Sheer issues aside for the moment, I am thinking that NHC may go up to 80% or 90% later today at the TWO.
Lurked here.
Since there's really not much to talk about today besides punctuation and grammar...and What shall become of Emilys remains. Any one care to tell me more about this solar flare that is supposably hitting Earth today? Like, does it actually hit
Earth or just particles enter out atmosphere? And what if anything will effected by this?
is the weakness gone next to Florida? I thought a second trough was coming down Sunday sometime and would turn potential Emily NE out to sea

maybe I mistaken
2220. oakland
Jedkins,

The rain can be very spotty for sure. Yesterday I had a downpour while a mile to my south they had nothing.
t - 4 min

Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Sheer issues aside for the moment, I am thinking that NHC may go up to 80% or 90% later today at the TWO.


Cant see any evidence of any circulation in the vicinity. Regardless even it were to develope its heading out to sea and mainland sfl unfortuantly isn't getting much rain from it.
2223. angiest
Quoting NolaJoniW:
Lurked here.
Since there's really not much to talk about today besides punctuation and grammar...and What shall become of Emilys remains. Any one care to tell me more about this solar flare that is supposably hitting Earth today? Like, does it actually hit
Earth or just particles enter out atmosphere? And what if anything will effected by this?


I saw it mentioned here yesterday, but I don't know the specifics of this one. General information on what happens is available at WP:

Link
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


So even though the ocean surface temps are higher in the near shore waters they are shallower and thus have less total heat. Is that right Pat? How are those data gathered? I'm wondering how we measure the depth of the heat content in open waters.



come on weather geeks/nerds....don't make me google it!
Weather related:

Who lives in a pinneapple under the sea?

2226. air360
45sec!
Link
The blob of convection NE of the 1011 low at 22N 77W looks like it's trying to creep west to it on the IR loop.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoever (whomever?) started the English lesson on this blog should be mashed.


Indeed!
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Weather related:

Who lives in a pinneapple under the sea?



Quoting hurricane23:


Cant see any evidence of any circulation in the vicinity. Regardless even it were to develope its heading out to sea and mainland sfl unfortuantly isn't getting much rain from it.


Out to sea?


Quoting oakland:
Jedkins,

The rain can be very spotty for sure. Yesterday I had a downpour while a mile to my south they had nothing.


This is true, but I'm not talking one single day, I'm talking a trend. We have had the typical scattered showers and thunderstorms at 40 to 50% when they have been saying 20 to 30%.

My only guess is the patterns that have been bringing are rain this rain season, are not like they used to be, and because of that inconsistency of where and how the rain comes they go very conservative because the patterns have been in constant change in terms of timing and direction of where they go. Throughout most of Florida you used to be able to time a nice heavy shower or thunderstorm at 4 or 5 PM. Now the rain comes at all different times and frequently comes from different directions every couple of days. The rain also seems to train in the same areas more too, some days areas get 5 inches and others get none.

The overall trend though long term has been between 40 and 50% coverage each day like normal, with occasional days having a lot less or a lot more.

Quoting hurricane23:


Cant see any evidence of any circulation in the vicinity. Regardless even it were to develope its heading out to sea and mainland sfl unfortuantly isn't getting much rain from it.


Long time no chat but great to hear from you. You are one of the better ones on here (for years) and sorry to see that you don't post as often.......I'll defer to your opinion, for the moment, based upon Your seniority........ :)
Beautiful launch as always...
2235. angiest
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


come on weather geeks/nerds....don't make me google it!


TCHP is a factor of SST and how deep the temps go (or at least as I understand it). Deeper is betterm particularly for intense hurricanes, as they will remove a fair amount of heat from the surface. That is, after-all, why they exist.
Beautiful launch here in Brevard County... I am only about 12 miles to the SSW of the launch pad, and it was spectacular with clear blue skies (few cumulus clouds over the mainland). And it was LOUD!
2237. Patrap
Atlas5/JUNO over the Hill..
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


come on weather geeks/nerds....don't make me google it!


Yes shallow waters along the coast will show they contain less TCHP, even if they are warmer then the waters offshore. Not sure how the data is gained for the open oceans. I assume a blend of buoy and satellite data is used. For it to make a big difference, you need a system to be moving very slowly, or be strong enough where it can really churn up the deeper water.
2239. oakland
Quoting Jedkins01:


This is true, but I'm not talking one single day, I'm talking a trend. We have had the typical scattered showers and thunderstorms at 40 to 50% when they have been saying 20 to 30%.

My only guess is the patterns that have been bringing are rain this rain season, are not like they used to be, and because of that inconsistency of where and how the rain comes they go very conservative because the patterns have been in constant change in terms of timing and direction of where they go. Throughout most of Florida you used to be able to time a nice heavy shower or thunderstorm at 4 or 5 PM. Now the rain comes at all different times. Some days some areas get 5 inches and others get none.

The overall trend though long term has been between 40 and 50% coverage each day like normal, with occasional days having a lot less or a lot more.



Your point is well taken and agree completely. I've noticed the same thing over the last few years.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Beautiful launch here in Brevard County... I am only about 12 miles to the SSW of the launch pad, and it was spectacular with clear blue skies (few cumulus clouds over the mainland). And it was LOUD!


Could barely see it here in Boca... saw a bit of the exhaust plume between the clouds.
2241. hydrus
Okinawa- Winds south at 56 gusting to 74 mph..
saw it from west palm.  way faster than shuttle
spongebob wearing headphones listening to a moe jam
Quoting angiest:


I saw it mentioned here yesterday, but I don't know the specifics of this one. General information on what happens is available at WP:



I found this at www.ibtimes.com

August 5, 2011 3:44 AM EDT

A series of solar flares that erupted in the Sun over the last three days are heading toward Earth and could disrupt power grids and satellites.

The flares, which are backed by a small radiation storm and a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME), might stimulate auroras on Friday.

(Photo: NASA/SDO)
A series of solar flares that erupted in the Sun over the last three days are heading towards the Earth and could disrupt power grids and satellites.

Enlarge
(Photo: NASA/SDO)
A series of solar flares that erupted in the Sun over the last three days are heading towards the Earth and could disrupt power grids and satellites.



The sun has unleashed at least three hearty solar burps since Tuesday which are currently en route to Earth. The third blast occurred at 4:57 a.m. GMT on Thursday from sunspot 1261 and was classified a significant M-class solar flare.

The third and fastest CME, moving at near 2,000 kilometers per second, may catch up with the first two en route. The combined cloud is predicted to hit Earth on Aug. 5 at 13:55 UTC plus or minus seven hours according to the SpaceWeather.com.

The solar flares caused some radio blackouts Wednesday and Thursday, and caused some disruptions of high-frequency communications with airplanes flying over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The National Weather Service (NWS) expects the flare to cause G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storms on Aug. 5 and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition.

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for Auroras or Aurora Borealis, also known as Northern lights, which are created as a result of some natural mechanism between solar wind, ions flow, Earth's magnetic field and collisions between ions and atmospheric atoms and molecules that cause energy releases in the form of colorful lights.

Visible auroral activities are predicted for Friday in high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, including the Arctic and parts of Canada, Russia, Alaska (USA) and northern Scandinavia.
Jed,

I lurk on here alot and I always hear you saying how you go to school at fsu for meteorology. I go there and I have never seen you around. What year are you?

Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh I know all about it, I'm going to school for this stuff remember, or did you not know?

My point is the coverage overall has been much higher this wet season than they forecast. If we actually got the amount of rain/storm coverage that they've forecasted overall, there would be talks of the drought getting even worse in Florida.

I know what 20 to 30% forecast looks like. They just have a huge fear of showing high rain chances this rainy season or something strange like that. Their forecasts are closer to what we had last year which was well below normal. Even when almost the entire area gets heavy rains of an inch or more they still don't want to put chances higher than 60%. The highest Ive seen is 70% and this whole area got widespread 3 to 5 inches.

2246. angiest
Quoting westpalmer:
saw it from west palm.  way faster than shuttle


I hope so! It has to get to escape velocity.
i see the center
Quoting oakland:


Your point is well taken and agree completely. I've noticed the same thing over the last few years.


Whether its man caused or not, you can't help but notice that Climate appears to be changing everywhere. So far it doesn't seems to be too bad in Florida compared to some areas. Although some will hate for saying this. But the atmosphere is just too complicated for us to know how the Climate will continue to change in the future and if this change is temporal or a long term progression.

2249. oakland
Sad to say but I think they make the lower % predictions so people will feel better when they are the lucky ones to get rain and those who go without can say well there was only a 20-30% chance today anyway.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


come on weather geeks/nerds....don't make me google it!


Satellites measure the height of the sea surface. From previous measurements using fixed and floating bouys they know the coorelation between the temperature at a certain depth and the sea height.


Link
Beautiful Launch! On her way to Jupiter.
2252. Guysgal
Quoting scooster67:
Who cares!


U r wright!
Quoting IceCoast:


Yes shallow waters along the coast will show they contain less TCHP, even if they are warmer then the waters offshore. Not sure how the data is gained for the open oceans. I assume a blend of buoy and satellite data is used. For it to make a big difference, you need a system to be moving very slowly, or be strong enough where it can really churn up the deeper water.


Thanks! They actually use satellite altimetry data to infer the depth of heating. Infrared data gives surface temp. Altimetry data tells how deep the warm water is because it measures the "height" of the warm areas due to thermal expansion....slick.
Juno into PTC now... like a whole chicken spinning on the grill.
Quoting kshipre1:
is the weakness gone next to Florida? I thought a second trough was coming down Sunday sometime and would turn potential Emily NE out to sea

maybe I mistaken


Its still there.
Quoting FlaWxChaser:
Jed,

I lurk on here alot and I always hear you saying how you go to school at fsu for meteorology. I go there and I have never seen you around. What year are you?



Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time there at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the plan to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.
2 day long Muifa radar loop:
Link

Quoting angiest:


I hope so! It has to get to escape velocity.
Well said - I guess.  Never thought much about differences in velocities from Shuttle to other launches.  Just assumed any launch that needs to escape the earth's atmosphere would require a minimum speed and specified trajectory.
POSS T.C.F.A.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
21.55N/74.89W
Pat had a chance to make it out to see the Bless you Boys practice yet?From what i'm told peyton is getting after them like a drill seargeant lol.Well hopefully transitions into another ring.
Quoting atmoaggie:
2 day long Muifa radar loop:
Link


Dang, what island is that that's getting pounded repeatedly?
Hello all....Thanks for the link to the launch....always enjoy those...:)


2264. Patrap
Okinawa,Japan, has been getting the Typhoons Impact


Quoting angiest:


TCHP is a factor of SST and how deep the temps go (or at least as I understand it). Deeper is betterm particularly for intense hurricanes, as they will remove a fair amount of heat from the surface. That is, after-all, why they exist.
In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone
12z GFS showing again a tropical cyclone developing..
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time their at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the paln to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I may be mistaken, but didn't someone say that there's a high out there and she couldn't become anything if she got into to the GOM? I don't know if I said this right. It really seems like Emily just don't have what it takes to become a Hurricane of any kind.

sheri



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?
According to the RGB satellite channel... it appears as if convection seems to be zippering quickly toward the LLC. Interesting to note is that there is a moderate amount of shear over the region at this time.
Quoting westpalmer:

Well said - I guess.  Never thought much about differences in velocities from Shuttle to other launches.  Just assumed any launch that needs to escape the earth's atmosphere would require a minimum speed and specified trajectory.


It does... then you have to use gravity to pick up some steam on orbit, then do a burn to get going faster away from earth.

Moon missions would do that... do a lap or two... then burn to get out of orbit.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS T.C.F.A.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
21.55N/74.89W


Shes trying.
The only hint of a LL swirl i see is around 19.5N/77.5wLink
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
According to the RGB satellite channel... it appears as if convection seems to be zippering quickly toward the LLC. Interesting to note is that there is a moderate amount of shear over the region at this time.


I noticed the NE blob seems to be moving towards it on IR, and then if you look at the blob to the SW... it seems to be creeping W and N. like two parenthesis that keep getting longer and longer.
2274. DSIjeff
78.2W, 23.2N ... roughly.

That's what I see.

Link
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?
?
Hi. ;-)

Emily? Maybe she'll become Emily again. Maybe not. I don't think anyone expects her to become a serious wind or surge threat (cat 2+) to anyone.

Quoting whepton3:


It does... then you have to use gravity to pick up some steam on orbit, then do a burn to get going faster away from earth.

Moon missions would do that... do a lap or two... then burn to get out of orbit.

Right.  I remember that now.  But as far as shuttle vs. Atlas V, the obvious speed difference was very apparent as an observer of both from my location.
2277. Patrap
The Low is analyzed here on the GOM View,,click FRONTS


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
2278. SLU
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Dang, what island is that that's getting pounded repeatedly?
That's the southern end of Japan's island chain.
2281. angiest
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I provided my take in post 2216. (to the ridge)

As to if she redevelops, I have no thoughts yet.
2282. Ninj4
I just completed the Juno launch video in HD. Give it some time to process first though :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouNiZCw4bDU


Quoting JFV2011:
Adrian, thoughts for the peak coming up?


Track Track Track....
Quoting oakland:
Sad to say but I think they make the lower % predictions so people will feel better when they are the lucky ones to get rain and those who go without can say well there was only a 20-30% chance today anyway.


I agree actually, they play it conservative knowing that most people don't know how the rain chance system works. I hear pro meteorologists take a lot of flak because the local weather didn't do as they said when its impossible to know exactly what will happen with the weather locally.

In fact being that I'm such a weather geek, all my friends/acquaintances call me the weather man. Well if I tell them, say a day has a high chance of showers and storms some being strong, but their local area didn't get much, they get mad at me even though many areas did get rain around the area. Or if it rains on a day they had plans that started sunny, somehow its "my fault" that it rained, now the people say this stuff aren't my friends, usually neighbors or acquaintances. My friends wouldn't do that to me. But my point is, sometimes the general public frustrates me as to how simple they think.
any of the models showing something in the future?
Quoting Patrap:
The Low is analyzed here on the GOM View,,click FRONTS


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop


What do you think Pat... is it trying to get itself closed back off again?
2287. Patrap
Maybe, our next topic should be manners! : )
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Hello!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time their at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the paln to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.


I went to SPC also. So basically your waiting to transfer with your AA that is what I did. I guess the way I read your post was that you were in school for this so thats why your point was right. Im not discrediting your point I was just wondering if you went to FSU yet.

I also was very interested in weather at a young age and there is a lot of material out there to learn from before college. As a senior at FSU in the Meteorology program I can tell you that you learn alot more after taking Gen Met, Climatology, Met instruments, Met computations, into to dynamics, and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. And I am looking forward to what I will finish learning in my last two semesters of atm physics, synoptic, and dynamics.

Good luck with school the Calculus classes are a beast though.
2291. CJ5
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



.

Will Emily become Emily again?


Well, there is no real answer to your question right now. Could it re-develop? Yes, that is possible. Will it re-develop? Noone really knows the answer, but you can read along and see who thinks it may and who thinks it might.
2292. DSIjeff
Quoting SLU:
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link


give everyone on guess what it does with it...
2293. Grothar
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
Quoting SLU:
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link


Also shows a full latitude trough over the eastern seaboard. Another save and a beauty...

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.
Hi Spice!
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Hi!

I think sometimes when there's a frenzy over a system... the innocuous posts get passed over sometimes.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.


Yep! that's pretty much the same as I'm doing, glad to see someone else other than me knows what I'm talking about! Its a smart choice too! Saves a lot of money, and trouble.

2298. DFWjc
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all....Thanks for the link to the launch....always enjoy those...:)




That High over NE Texas is brutal....
2299. kwgirl
New Blog
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


My best educated (er, self-educated) guess is that it will. It just takes time and the right ingredients to come together. There is a LLC over the Atlantic south of Andros Island, that is number 1 ingredient. Number 2 ingredient is warm water, and plenty of that in this region. Number 3, moist environment... has some drier air lurking to the NW over FL and Central/Western Cuba. Number 4, light winds through the atmosphere, right now there is moderate shear over the area. Number 5, land interaction... seems to be shedding herself from that at this time. Number 6, a vertically stacked system... seems to have good vorticity in the area.

Bottom line is: It is possible, and I would go out on a limb and say probable that it will regenerate--- to what capacity and what affects it might have on the US... just not sure yet. Stay tuned.
The current overall pattern does imply plenty of opportunitys for cv waves to recurve though there (might) be some indications that may change in 2 weeks.
2302. Patrap
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Pat had a chance to make it out to see the Bless you Boys practice yet?From what i'm told peyton is getting after them like a drill seargeant lol.Well hopefully transitions into another ring.


Way too hot for my skin out dere ...

Drew is a perfectionist, fo sho.
2303. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:


give everyone on guess what it does with it...


Hmm, a magic trough?
new blog
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Don't quote Catastro...got him on ignore

TIA.....

Just kidding! Try quoting someone who is good at meteorology stuff to direct the question. I don't answer questions much because this is not my area of expertise. Sorry if you guys feel ignored. Another good way to engage people is to go to their personal blog page and ask questions.
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
gro i have no doubt in my mind that reformation is highly likly at this time more so as we get into late tonight and saturday morning
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link


It's really picked up in the last couple of hours... curious what NHC will say at 2.
2308. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
Tropical Depression Emily.?.....nnaaahhhhhh...well maybe..:)
2309. MahFL
Also shows a full latitude trough over the eastern seaboard.


No !!!!!!!!!!!!!
2310. Grothar
Dr. Masters has a new blog.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gro i have no doubt in my mind that reformation is highly likly at this time more so as we get into late tonight and saturday morning


Got room in that camp for one more?

It sure looks that way doesn't it?
2312. jonelu
Quoting westpalmer:
saw it from west palm.  way faster than shuttle
I missed it! I live in WP too...damn.
2313. JFV2011
Quoting hurricane23:
The current overall pattern does imply plenty of opportunitys for cv waves to recurve though there (might) be some indications that may change in 2 weeks.


interesting, what kind of indications, sir? long range gfs or ecm?
Quoting FlaWxChaser:


I went to SPC also. So basically your waiting to transfer with your AA that is what I did. I guess the way I read your post was that you were in school for this so thats why your point was right. Im not discrediting your point I was just wondering if you went to FSU yet.

I also was very interested in weather at a young age and there is a lot of material out there to learn from before college. As a senior at FSU in the Meteorology program I can tell you that you learn alot more after taking Gen Met, Climatology, Met instruments, Met computations, into to dynamics, and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. And I am looking forward to what I will finish learning in my last two semesters of atm physics, synoptic, and dynamics.

Good luck with school the Calculus classes are a beast though.


Nice! That is what I'm doing, yeah some have mistaken that I'm on campus there taking classes but yet they are confused because I report like I'm still living down in the Tampa Bay area, which I am, lol.

Yeah Calc 1 was pretty crazy, I hear Calc 2 is the worst so I'll have my hands full.

I can't wait till the actual MET classes, because I know Ive just scratched the surface of meteorology in comparison to what is ahead. Good luck to you too on finishing!


quoting
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.

Very smart move ,just only you will be taken under Act of 1964 for discimination ,,stupid comment in blog full of foreing people ....is this the kind of students that America are promoting now?? Geez!!

Quoting jonelu:
I missed it! I live in WP too...damn.
Fortunately the clouds were on either side of the contrail.
2317. Bayside
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I don't say much on here. I've asked questions in the past but a certain know-it-all only responded to the females, but he's gone now.

It's unlikely for the remnants to make it into the GOM and if they did they wouldn't develop. The more likely solution is to either reorganize some on the east coast of FL and be pulled out to sea or not reorganize. Yes, there has been a big blocking high protecting most of the GOM at least on the US portion. Once that's gone it might be game on for one of these waves to develop something and head on in there to suck up some of that energey.

Cheers.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all....Thanks for the link to the launch....always enjoy those...:)


Do I sense another Katrina forming out of remnants of Emily down the road...!? Katrina formed in the same spot around the Bahamas.
2319. JFV2011
Quoting SLU:
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link


damn trough, that could have been a classic, textbook type of a U.S landfall coming from a C.V storm, oh yeah, that'll change since it's far out, as we know, the gfs over does it with it's troughs.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh I know all about it, I'm going to school for this stuff remember, or did you not know?

My point is the coverage overall has been much higher this wet season than they forecast. If we actually got the amount of rain/storm coverage that they've forecasted overall, there would be talks of the drought getting even worse in Florida.

I know what 20 to 30% forecast looks like. They just have a huge fear of showing high rain chances this rainy season or something strange like that. Their forecasts are closer to what we had last year which was well below normal. Even when almost the entire area gets heavy rains of an inch or more they still don't want to put chances higher than 60%. The highest Ive seen is 70% and this whole area got widespread 3 to 5 inches.

,no offence,but i feel ruskin nws is one of the best in the country,remember macdill is close by,wink,wink,lol
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time there at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the plan to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.
I took all those classes except the Humanitarian ones! LOL
2322. rv1pop
Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree actually, they play it conservative knowing that most people don't know how the rain chance system works. I hear pro meteorologists take a lot of flak because the local weather didn't do as they said when its impossible to know exactly what will happen with the weather locally.

In fact being that I'm such a weather geek, all my friends/acquaintances call me the weather man. Well if I tell them, say a day has a high chance of showers and storms some being strong, but their local area didn't get much, they get mad at me even though many areas did get rain around the area. Or if it rains on a day they had plans that started sunny, somehow its "my fault" that it rained, now the people say this stuff aren't my friends, usually neighbors or acquaintances. My friends wouldn't do that to me. But my point is, sometimes the general public frustrates me as to how simple they think.


That is so true. Our neighbors are about 1 mile away, and a couple of weeks ago we were talking on the phone and she commented about the noise in the background. When I told her it was hail and rain on the roof, she called me a liar. It was clear and 20 degrees hotter at their place.

In January, we had one of those mini vortexes that pulled my 10 foot satellite pole and dish out of the ground and they did not even have wind, although our neighbor west of us had wind over 60 mph for 4 hours. (we were not home that week, so I do not know how long it lasted here.) My anemometer failed after reaching 138 MPH, so I do not know how strong or how long it lasted - broke the bearing block on the wind cups.
Quoting angiest:


TCHP is a factor of SST and how deep the temps go (or at least as I understand it). Deeper is betterm particularly for intense hurricanes, as they will remove a fair amount of heat from the surface. That is, after-all, why they exist.
GOM SST are very hot!
First post and will probably get banned.
When I was in college many years ago, We were told to mix what sounded like "Krasium choloride" with some other reagent. My partner asked if it was Calcium choloride or potassium choloride. The grad student got irate and repeated "Krasium choloride".
My partner "Oh, Krasium choloride" The grad student said "Yes, Krasium choloride".
I don't remember what he mixed, but after the explosion and we explained what happened to the head of the Chemistry Department, we were able to finish the lab that semester.

Quoting aussiecold:

quoting
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.

Very smart move ,just only you will be taken under Act of 1964 for discimination ,,stupid comment in blog full of foreing people ....is this the kind of students that America are promoting now?? Geez!!
Quoting whepton3:


It's really picked up in the last couple of hours... curious what NHC will say at 2.



zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz .... what? Emily? :-)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.