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Tropical Storm Emily Approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 AM GMT on August 03, 2011

As of 8PM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 16.2N, 66.7W, moving WNW at 14 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1005 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.

2AM EDT Update
As of 2AM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 16.3N, 67.5W, moving WNW at 13 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1006 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.
End update

Satellite imagery shows a large amount of convection near Emily's center. However, the NHC discussion suggests that Emily is not standing straight up, like an ideal tropical cyclone, but the circulation is tilted eastwards with height. This is due to the wind shear present over the storm.


Figure 1 IR Satellite image of TS Emily taken at 11PM EDT August 2, 2011



Forecasting Emily
The fog of uncertainty still shrouds Emily's track forecast. The 12Z ECMWF and NOGAPS models keep Emily on a west to west-northwest track that skirts the southern edge of Hispaniola before running along the length of Cuba. The 12Z CMC global model has Emily tracking towards the NW, but recurving before making landfall along the US coastline. The 12Z and 18Z GFS runs (as shown in Figure 2), agree on a roughly similar track.


Figure 2 Peak winds (mph) over the next week from the 18Z GFS

The 12Z UKMET global model, and the 18Z GFDL and HWRF dynamical models are west of the GFS/CMC consensus track, withe the GFDL keeping Emily over the western Bahamas. The HWRF and UKMET tracks stay very close to the Florida/Georgia coastlines.

However, all of these tracks require Emily's circulation to grow tall enough that the upper-level steering winds can pull Emily towards the NW. I've discussed the situation with Angela Fritz, and she thinks that if Emily's circulation remains shallow, a more westerly track like that described by the ECMWF and NOGAPS could be more likely.

If we look at the previous NHC forecast, Emily was expected to be at 15.9N, 66.5W at the time of the forecast update. This is approximately 25 miles southeast of Emily's current position. If we ignore the uncertainty of locating Emily's center, this suggests that the westerly ECMWF/NOGAPS track is less likely, but doesn't say much about deciding between the GFS/GFDL and UKMET/HWRF tracks.

My opinion about forecasting Emily's intensity has not changed from this morning's update. I would prefer to wait for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. If Emily's circulation can survive the 8000 feet tall mountains of Hispaniola, the sea is warm enough for moderate intensification.

Having taken all of this into consideration, the 5 day NHC track forecast splits the difference between the HWRF/UKMET and GFS/GFDL tracks, bringing Emily over the central Bahamas before recurving towards the northeast. Emily is also forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday, August 7. However, it is important to remember that NHC has said that the forecast uncertainty after 48 hours is larger than usual for Emily. So, people living on the East Coast should still not think they are in the clear just yet.

In terms of immediate impacts, 4-6 inches of rain are expected over Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with 10 inches possible in isolated areas.


Figure 2 Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

Eastern Pacific

Eugene is now the third major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season with estimated winds of 115 mph. However, Eugene is well out to sea and should not threaten any landmasses. Invest 97E has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical disturbance in the next 48 hours, but will likely not affect any land areas.

Angela will have a full post Wednesday morning discussing Emily.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Jedkins01:
Guys I highly doubt at this point its going to move into the mountains of Hispanola, it was assumed as if it was guaranteed to, but it is not. The LLC is moving more westward than ever and should pretty much skirt the coast of the island at most, heck we can't rule out dissipation at this point. But I don't think that will happen, Emily should hang in as a weak cyclone, but is clearly too shallow to feel the northerly pull, I said it last night and I'll say it again. It will eventually bend north, but whatever becomes of Emily, degenerated tropical low or still tropical storm, is likely to curve farther west than expected. Nothing is set in stone, but this has been my expectation based on constant analysis Ive been doing.


i agree 100%...no way this crosses haiti..it stays in the caribbean..
1502. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:

FYI (though you may have noticed the, umm, notice):

These plots will cease to exist, as will that particular NCEP site, at the end of this month.



lol yeah... being getting the warning that in a couple weeks the plot would be bye bye.
1503. OneDay
main area of convection for emily tumbled a little south of west last couple of hours. something to watch.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Cornerback has just flew by Emily and she's scootin down the sidelines, westbound for the score



LOL...nice! If I'm seeing what I think I'm seeing...yup.
1505. Drakoen
New GFS has her off the coast of Haiti Thursday in the afternoon:


1506. Levi32
Watch closely. The easterly trade winds north of Emily hit a wall at 74-75W. The surface winds in the western Caribbean are nada. Once Emily reaches this point, there will be little choice but to make some progress northward into the weakness over the Bahamas. The surface flow simply won't carry the surface swirl any farther west than the longitude of Haiti's western tip.
Quoting Levi32:


IF it survives crossing the mountains of Haiti or Cuba, or both, and regenerates on the other side, it would likely gradually intensify. It could get completely destroyed though and never regenerate, given that it is now decoupled and all the work will be up to the mid-level circulation after the crossing.

Levi do you think there is a chance that Emily misses the weakness and gets caught under the Texas Ridge???
Is it just me, or is the center 2 to 2.5 degrees south of the projected position at this longitude?
1509. Drakoen
Through the Windward Passage:


IMO, Emily will likely die over Hispaniola if it makes landfall there or even interacts more. The question will be is if she reforms north of Hispaniola or doesn't redevelop at all. Weaker she is the more west she goes as we're seeing today.
Finally got a new image update... as of 1345Z (1145 EDT) the center now appears to be crossing 70W at around 16.7. So due west right now
1512. Levi32
Low-level steering:

Notice the weakness over the Bahamas between the two ridges, and how the winds are very light in the western Caribbean.

Quoting nofailsafe:


Big shifts make for bad forecasts and make people start to wonder...
LOL Raise your hands if you thought this would go west due to the lack of convergence we were seeing last night. Seriously, common sense is so much of this, and gets lost in these models.
1514. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:
Watch closely. The easterly trade winds north of Emily hit a wall at 74-75W. The surface winds in the western Caribbean are nada. Once Emily reaches this point, there will be little choice but to make some progress northward into the weakness over the Bahamas. The surface flow simply won't carry the surface swirl any farther west than the longitude of Haiti's western tip.


great analysis Levi!
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Let me see if I get this clear. Emily is moving to the west still, but the NHC still hope it is going to make an almost 90degree turn tward the NW? I'm sorry but I think we should start seeing the cone getting moved to the left soon. I'm not a wish caster BTW I had my share with Katrina in MS.


The cone has moved west and now encompasses a great portion of FL. Out of respect for the TVCN, GFDL & HWRF among many other considered reliable models that still forecast a re-curve, only slightly. The cone now could support a track up the west coast of FL. Regardless many in FL are in the cone and should be preparing to take action if necessary.
Levi, do you think that Emily will become our first hurricane of the season?
1517. Levi32
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Levi do you think there is a chance that Emily misses the weakness and gets caught under the Texas Ridge???


I still doubt that solution. Even if it did happen, Emily would likely die under the pattern it would find itself in.
If it decoupled, would the MLC go a different path or get sucked into the weakness as well?
1519. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, do you think that Emily will become our first hurricane of the season?


If it regenerates and recurves east of Florida out to sea along the gulf stream, it's very possible, as it would have a lot of time over warm water under favorable upper-level conditions, with time to mix out dry air.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Wow! What all does this mean? I've been hearing about this on the news...


There is a lot to have to write to explain it.


Link
Here is a recent article that will explain it. Not too long but informative. Tells about how we dodged the bullet on a big one last month also.
Quoting Patrap:
Patrick Jr's Knee surgery went well and he is in recovery here @ Children's Hospital in NOLA. Thanks for all the well wishes and prayers ...

...will be bac tomorrow if Emily refire's..if not,

Have a good week and weekend
Good to hear.
when can we RIP emily
1524. angiest
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
LOL Raise your hands if you thought this would go west due to the lack of convergence we were seeing last night. Seriously, common sense is so much of this, and gets lost in these models.


My thinking, from the time she was declared, was that she was too far south to gain enough latitude to get pulled into the trough, at least not by very much.

Beyond that, I have never said much.
Quoting Levi32:


If it regenerates and recurves east of Florida out to sea along the gulf stream, it's very possible, as it would have a lot of time over warm water under favorable upper-level conditions, with time to mix out dry air.

Levi how do you get your drawing tool to draw while the satellite is looping mine stops the loop? What utility do you use thanks!!!
HWRF takes it into Central FL

Link
1527. Levi32
Quoting Cotillion:
If it decoupled, would the MLC go a different path or get sucked into the weakness as well?


It will follow the weakness in the mid-levels, probably remaining east of the surface center. It will be interesting how the orientation of the different parts is after the crossing of the Caribbean island chain, as the mid-level circulation will likely have full responsibility for regenerating a new surface low.
not yet
Firing some new convection and even a band to the NE of the LLC.

Quoting Levi32:
Watch closely. The easterly trade winds north of Emily hit a wall at 74-75W. The surface winds in the western Caribbean are nada. Once Emily reaches this point, there will be little choice but to make some progress northward into the weakness over the Bahamas. The surface flow simply won't carry the surface swirl any farther west than the longitude of Haiti's western tip.


Best and most informative post of the day. People are stubborn on here. I think she will dissipate.
Based on the current ejection of another low level circulation (on the vis loops), I am starting to wonder if she will even maintain TS status before reaching Haiti (in the short term).
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
LOL Raise your hands if you thought this would go west due to the lack of convergence we were seeing last night. Seriously, common sense is so much of this, and gets lost in these models.
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
when can we RIP emily


Give it a solid week.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:



me me me me me me m e
1535. Levi32
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Levi how do you get your drawing tool to draw while the satellite is looping mine stops the loop? What utility do you use thanks!!!


I use an OpenGL-rendering tool available in compiz on linux, but if you're a windows man, this should do the trick. It actually draws smoother lines than what I have had to use in linux. I don't know if anyone has actually picked up on the fact that I use a different drawing tool in my videos now than I did a few months ago lol.
1536. angiest
Does anyone know what that non-tasked mission is?
Levi, How long is that Texas ridge expected to remain in place?
Little flare up to the east of the LLC. Anything helps Emily at this point.
Link
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.h tml
Quoting HTownJitters:
Is it just me, or is the center 2 to 2.5 degrees south of the projected position at this longitude?


Never mind...updated visible sequence and the COC is obvious...my bad.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Best and most informative post of the day. People are stubborn on here. I think she will dissipate.


He didn't actually say it was going to dissipate, he was talking about track.
What are the chances of Emily going South or SW and going through maybe Cuba and recurving through the SW coast of Florida? I have a neighbor saying this, but been saying no its going out to Sea, but then read your comments and dunno?
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Best and most informative post of the day. People are stubborn on here. I think she will dissipate.


CROW
The evolution of the 5-day track forecast thus far (not including intermediate advisories):


(full size...click)
Quoting Levi32:


I use an OpenGL-rendering tool available in compiz on linux, but if you're a windows man, this should do the trick. It actually draws smoother lines than what I have had to use. I don't know if anyone has actually picked up on the fact that I use a different tool now than I did a few months ago lol.
im on mac too... where did u dowload it from
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
What are the chances of Emily going South or SW and going through maybe Cuba and recurving through the SW coast of Florida? I have a neighbor saying this, but been saying no its going out to Sea, but then read your comments and dunno?


I have been saying from day one that this will be a west coast of fl dealio
1546. pottery
Quoting cloudburst2011:


i agree 100%...no way this crosses haiti..it stays in the caribbean..

I hope you are correct...
If Emily crosses Haiti and DomRep it will lose a lot of it's strength which means it will lose plenty of water.
That water coming down on the denuded mountains will cause real Dread conditions in Haiti.

Better she stays south.....
1547. Levi32
Emily is on par with the southern models.

Looks like Haiti.
Quoting Levi32:


I use an OpenGL-rendering tool available in compiz on linux, but if you're a windows man, this should do the trick. It actually draws smoother lines than what I have had to use in linux. I don't know if anyone has actually picked up on the fact that I use a different drawing tool in my videos now than I did a few months ago lol.


Thats awesome it works i just tried it Thanks so much!!!!
1550. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
The evolution of the 5-day track forecast thus far (not including intermediate advisories):


(full size...click)


Like Ike did, she appears to be hugging the left edge of the cone.
Quoting atmoaggie:
The evolution of the 5-day track forecast thus far (not including intermediate advisories):


(full size...click)


Extremely accurate I must say.
looks like emily is south of the next forecast piont
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
LOL Raise your hands if you thought this would go west due to the lack of convergence we were seeing last night. Seriously, common sense is so much of this, and gets lost in these models.


I always had a suspicion that this was going to happen, the past track didn't seem to encourage much of a northward track, she's made it this far and we'll see if she even stays together. Her circulation is showing and that's not usually a good indicator of a long life to come.
36 Hrs GFS
Quoting Levi32:
Watch closely. The easterly trade winds north of Emily hit a wall at 74-75W. The surface winds in the western Caribbean are nada. Once Emily reaches this point, there will be little choice but to make some progress northward into the weakness over the Bahamas. The surface flow simply won't carry the surface swirl any farther west than the longitude of Haiti's western tip.

looking at the vis on emily on the western edge of that floater you can see the low level clouds at 74W/75W between 13N and 17N the winds are going W-WSW between 18N and 20N winds are going WSW-SW (mainly due to the shape of SW Haiti) but further out like near 77W between 13N and 17N its WSW-W 17N and 18N S-SSW (due to SE Jamaica) 18.5N and 20N going W

so I don't know about that yet
1556. Levi32
Quoting weatherman12345:
im on mac too... where did u dowload it from


On Mac I don't know what to tell you...except that I am certain Mac has a lot of stuff capable of drawing on the screen, as Mac is big into multimedia applications. I know they have a "magic pen" or something like that with the word "magic" in the title. If you find that, I believe that has the same function.
She'll avoid the southwestern Dominican tip. Probably by a slim margin, then cross Haiti to shoot the gap.
1558. jonelu
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level steering:

Notice the weakness over the Bahamas between the two ridges, and how the winds are very light in the western Caribbean.


What do you estimate he chances of survival over Hispañola? >50%?
Quoting RukusBoondocks:


I have been saying from day one that this will be a west coast of fl dealio


Yes you have Rufus.
go back to Emilys very first cone i think that will play out IMO
I just have a question? Maybe someone can answer or not....

For the past several hours the LLC has been moving west based off Visible Satellite Imagery...I have been looking for the northward jog here and their but have not seen it based off the WNW broadcasted movement.

I wonder that now the LLC is exposed and the storm is not as organized is Emily gonna trend west more due to less effect from steering currents in upper levels?

I am not a wishcaster for I am on the east coast...Just an observation and a question?

This storm has been full of tricks and ups and downs......
Quoting KanKunKid:


There is a lot to have to write to explain it.


Link
Here is a recent article that will explain it. Not too long but informative. Tells about how we dodged the bullet on a big one last month also.


Thanks!
Now that the LLC is exposed, it is much easier to see where it's headed. Looks to me like it's still going dead west. I expect the turn sometime this evening, but I still think it will miss the highest of the Hispaniola mountains. I'd guess we'll have a weak TS after Hispaniola, like the NHC forecast says, but I think it will hold together enough to strengthen fairly quickly when it finds the forecast ULAC. And I still think track will shift westwards some more. Going to come pretty close to Florida, IMO.
Unless I am looking in the wrong place, I am looking at the hi-res vis loops and it looks to me like she is pretty decoupled at the moment with the circulation racing away from the convection......Her COC is fully exposed at the moment me thinks which is not good (for Her).
I see that the circulation has now become totally exposed as I surmised early this morning would happen. This has become a fairly shallow system and the track is evolving closer to the gap between Jamaica and Haiti that I have been watching for since Monday morning.

Shear is 20 to 25 knots just ahead and this will be a test of survival for the next 12 to 18 hours IMO. It also opens the door for more Westerly motion as discussed on the blog this morning although the trough is still there. Whether it will pull a much weaker storm Northward on the current forecast track remains to be seen.
Considering she's so disorganised, it'd certainly test the track and models if she pulls another stalling trick.
1567. WxLogic
We still good... no cancellations so far on the updated HH Plan of the Day.

Flight should be going out in 30 to 45 min.
Still I must say Emily has been a very interesting storm to watch so far.
Quoting mattw479:
I just have a question? Maybe someone can answer or not....

For the past several hours the LLC has been moving west based off Visible Satellite Imagery...I have been looking for the northward jog here and their but have not seen it based off the WNW broadcasted movement.

I wonder that now the LLC is exposed and the storm is not as organized is Emily gonna trend west more due to less effect from steering currents in upper levels?

I am not a wishcaster for I am on the east coast...Just an observation and a question?

This storm has been full of tricks and ups and downs......


dats why u should read up the blog my friend we've been discussin this for a while now :)

the weaker the storm is the more W it goes
Quoting Slamguitar:
She'll avoid the southwestern Dominican tip. Probably by a slim margin, then cross Haiti to shoot the gap.


Quoting Patrap:
Patrick Jr's Knee surgery went well and he is in recovery here @ Children's Hospital in NOLA. Thanks for all the well wishes and prayers ...

...will be bac tomorrow if Emily refire's..if not,

Have a good week and weekend


2000 IU of Vitamin D per 25lbs of bodyweight will help a lot for recovery...

http://chp.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/07/19/2 156587211413768.abstract?maxtoshow=&hits=3&RESULTF ORMAT=&andorexacttitle=or&titleabstract=%2522vitam in+D%2522&andorexacttitleabs=and&andorexactfulltex t=and&searchid=1&usestrictdates=yes&resourcetype=H WCIT&ct
hmmmmmmm...

Given the recent lack of
tropical storm development,
I am wondering if Jeff Masters
REALLY went on vacation???
Quoting stormpetrol:
Still I must say Emily has been a very interesting storm to watch so far.


yeah storm, it looked pretty impressive four and five days ago when it wasnt named lol ... and all models threw it onto pr.

the gusts that woke me up at 5am were very strong... it was freaky!

we're getting soaking wet by the convection she left behind. even tho the bulk is at sea
Fresh ASCAT
strong convection developing to the NE of the LLC lets see if it holds
1576. Levi32
Gotta head to work now. Back later.
Quoting Levi32:


On Mac I don't know what to tell you...except that I am certain Mac has a lot of stuff capable of drawing on the screen, as Mac is big into multimedia applications. I know they have a "magic pen" or something like that with the word "magic" in the title. If you find that, I believe that has the same function.
thanks levi!1` just downloaded it..
1578. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
I see that the circulation has now become totally exposed as I surmised early this morning would happen. This has become a fairly shallow system and the track is evolving closer to the gap between Jamaica and Haiti that I have been watching for since Monday morning.

Shear is 20 to 25 knots just ahead and this will be a test of survival for the next 12 to 18 hours IMO. It also opens the door for more Westerly motion as discussed on the blog this morning although the trough is still there. Whether it will pull a much weaker storm Northward on the current forecast track remains to be seen.

She is doing just what you told her, so far....
Good one!
Emily looks very ill at the moment, but I think after the trip over some part of Hispaniola, it will survive and emerge into a more conductive environment for development of Emily as it zooms off onto the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 3rd, with Video


Great update Levi.....as always!!! Jus watchin, learning & Lurkin from BARBADOS...
Quoting Cotillion:
Considering she's so disorganised, it'd certainly test the track and models if she pulls another stalling trick.


shes got a pretty organized llc tho... i would say hurt. disorganized maybe when the llc wasnt closed
Quoting gwadaman:


Great update Levi.....as always!!! Jus watchin, learning & Lurkin from BARBADOS...


how was soupbowls ;)
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT


thanks babe
1584. zawxdsk
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Now that the LLC is exposed, it is much easier to see where it's headed. Looks to me like it's still going dead west. I expect the turn sometime this evening, but I still think it will miss the highest of the Hispaniola mountains. I'd guess we'll have a weak TS after Hispaniola, like the NHC forecast says, but I think it will hold together enough to strengthen fairly quickly when it finds the forecast ULAC. And I still think track will shift westwards some more. Going to come pretty close to Florida, IMO.


The good news for Florida is that unless Emily makes a direct landfall, the part that skirts FL will be the left side of the storm.

With the shape that she's been in, the left front is almost non-existent - little convection and 10 to 15 mile per hour winds out over the open ocean.
1585. angiest
Who keeps throwing dropsondes in the Gulf?
How is Emily this morning?
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT




IMO Emily should become an open wave soon. Euro might be right on this one.
Why are they're predicting very sharp curve offshore of Florida/Carolinas? I just don't see that happening.
Quoting pottery:

She is doing just what you told her, so far....
Good one!


Just looked at the ASCAT pass, not pretty at all. Looks more like an elongated area of low pressure in the form of a convergence line. Just barely closed at best and it would not take much for it to completely open up.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:


I have been saying from day one that this will be a west coast of fl dealio


I think you are on the money, I just don't want to sound like a wishcaster and say its coming up the west coast of Florida because I live there.

I would actually like to see this come up this way, because it will likely not be anything destructive when it does, just nice even to help bring more heavy beneficial rain to Florida, additional drought help, instead of curving east of Florida and bringing large amounts of dry air entrenched into our state, which would be bad.

When Emily was just 91L I believed it would curve out to sea, but over the last couple days Ive clearly been able to find that many of the models are wrong from the start due to the nature of Emily.

As a student who plans on becoming an actual meteorologist, I try my best to understand where will be the most likely path, not where I something will do. If Emily was expected to be a strong hurricane up through here I would have the exact opposite feeling, I would not want it to come, I would be upset.
emilys COC looks to be getting elongated NW-SE (still closed however) maybe trying to reform the COC to the SE
Quoting Levi32:


I use an OpenGL-rendering tool available in compiz on linux, but if you're a windows man, this should do the trick. It actually draws smoother lines than what I have had to use in linux. I don't know if anyone has actually picked up on the fact that I use a different drawing tool in my videos now than I did a few months ago lol.
Best thing I have gotten from this blog all day!! I've been searching for software of this type for some time now, thanks levi. Great analysis too!
Back later
gfs thinks quick regeneration
1595. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Just looked at the ASCAT pass, not pretty at all. Looks more like an elongated area of low pressure in the form of a convergence line. Just barely closed at best and it would not take much for it to completely open up.

Yeah I saw that as well (post 1574 Skyepony posted)
I hope it keeps away from Haiti in any case,
Convection does look like its building near the center
1597. rod2635
Quoting atmoaggie:
The evolution of the 5-day track forecast thus far (not including intermediate advisories):


(full size...click)


Great graphic. Still thru all those iterations the course to Friday fairly consistent. After that a lot of varation. Emily dissipates over SC as tropical storm, just my opinion.
Quoting serialteg:


shes got a pretty organized llc tho... i would say hurt. disorganized maybe when the llc wasnt closed


It's visible, but it's not particularly strong or organised. With a barrel full of shear coming and her other upcoming issues, even that may not last much longer.

But, she's fighting.
1599. SLU
CSU August 3rd hurricane forecast.

The numbers from April have been maintained calling for a very active hurricane season.

16-9-5.
Quoting zawxdsk:


The good news for Florida is that unless Emily makes a direct landfall, the part that skirts FL will be the left side of the storm.

With the shape that she's been in, the left front is almost non-existent - little convection and 10 to 15 mile per hour winds out over the open ocean.


Great..10 to 15 mph!? So like Bonnie only 100 times worse!
Convection is starting to get going on the NE and east side of Emily , lets see if it holds within the next few hours , if it does it may re establish itself before coming into haiti , this is a wait and see game
Quoting kmanislander:


Just looked at the ASCAT pass, not pretty at all. Looks more like an elongated area of low pressure in the form of a convergence line. Just barely closed at best and it would not take much for it to completely open up.



the condition of emily im looking at almost and open wave when recon gets to it shortly..
Quoting kmanislander:


Just looked at the ASCAT pass, not pretty at all. Looks more like an elongated area of low pressure in the form of a convergence line. Just barely closed at best and it would not take much for it to completely open up.


Last night, the ASCAT pass showed a for sure open wave when recon confirmed that it was definitely not open.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
strong convection developing to the NE of the LLC lets see if it holds


Also notice the MLC just south of the eastern side of Puerto Rico.

Looks like an owl on the vis....lol


Hmmmm
Quoting cloudburst2011:



the condition of emily im looking at almost and open wave when recon gets to it shortly..
see post 1603 , for some reason info that is not directly from recon is questionable
Geez Emily, put ya clothes back on. Fancy running around the Central Caribbean naked swirling around with no care who see's you.



Goodnight all.
Quoting islander101010:
gfs thinks quick regeneration



How could it not regenerate?? Lets remember we are approaching the heart of the season.
What happened to the 12Z GFS?
1610. pottery
Quoting cloudburst2011:



the condition of emily im looking at almost and open wave when recon gets to it shortly..

It's still closed.... just.
Quoting Cotillion:


It's visible, but it's not particularly strong or organised. With a barrel full of shear coming and her other upcoming issues, even that may not last much longer.

But, she's fighting.


if we got something its persistent storms... remember all those naked swirls that made it thru the graveyard against all odds?

and im tellin you i rode emily out just today and its a strong mofo... dont let it fool you

the 50mph gusts are real
Quoting Abacosurf:


Also notice the MLC just south of the eastern side of Puerto Rico.

Looks like an owl on the vis....lol
looks like it but remember the MLC for some reason has been disipating and reforming along the way , that has been emily's problem and a broad llc
1614. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:
Geez Emily, put ya clothes back on. Fancy running around the Central Caribbean naked swirling around with no care who see's you.



Goodnight all.

Yeah, I've seen better......
Quoting SLU:
CSU August 3rd hurricane forecast.

The numbers from April have been maintained calling for a very active hurricane season.

16-9-5.


One issue with that is we are already at 5-0-0, which means would have to go 11-9-5 the rest of the season... kind of hard to see (statement assumes Emily DOESN'T make hurricane)
guys remember Fay, Katrina And dennis came through this area and fell apart and emerged as an open wave in the Se bahamas and quickly reorganized and the NHC is forecasting very good conditions in the bahamas
Quoting BenBIogger:




IMO Emily should become an open wave soon. Euro might be right on this one.

not quite
1620. WxLogic
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What happened to the 12Z GFS?


12Z 84HR:



A more W shift noticed... and to be expected.
Quoting serialteg:


if we got something its persistent storms... remember all those naked swirls that made it thru the graveyard against all odds?

and im tellin you i rode emily out just today and its a strong mofo... dont let it fool you

the 50mph gusts are real


glad u made it thru...people tend to forget that just because a storm isn't a cat 3 or higher cane that it still isn't damaging, scary and possibly deadly...just saying
bad looking tropical storm i do not see this being a hurricane anytime soon
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What happened to the 12Z GFS?


They all just updated to 84 hrs on one refresh the NCEP site. It was stuck for a while.
Link
Quoting angiest:
Who keeps throwing dropsondes in the Gulf?


Thank you. Didn't realize I had lost some.
Looks like she's attempting to wrap those thunderstorms back in on her Northeast and east sides.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like it but remember the MLC for some reason has been disipating and reforming along the way , that has been emily's problem and a broad llc


Looks like more convection firing with the LLC.

It is closed. Not an open wave yet.

And trust me I like waves.....
1627. MahFL
Quoting DestinJeff:
61.8W, 13N ....

is that the MLC down there? I see spin, people.


are you sure 13N 61.8W

I don't see a thing there
Quoting kmanislander:


Emily on course to pass well South of the next point. Check the box for the points as well as lat/lon. West for now very close to 275 degrees


i have always thought a continued west movement would miss haiti to the south and jamaica would become the target...its looking like that more and more..expect the models are out to lunch as usual..
1630. JRRP

87Hrs GFS
Quoting WxLogic:


12Z 84HR:



A more W shift noticed... and to be expected.


As you can see if there is circulation left north of DR upper level conditions look decent for some intensification as shown her by the GFS.

1633. will40
if Emily does hold herself together until the Bahamas area all bets are off
Didn't expect to see Emily this disorganized this AM. (well its noon now, wow) I thought it would only get better since yesterday. What acted to disrupt it? It has pretty favorable conditions..
Quoting tiggeriffic:


glad u made it thru...people tend to forget that just because a storm is a cat 3 or higher cane that it still isn't damaging, scary and possibly deadly...just saying


thing is its 1005mb+ and u underestimate it but once it knocks your door... ive been around a while and im tellin u this ones strong
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
I just posted the two tone talk the two tone talk on my fox hurricane lol
1638. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:


As you can see if there is circulation left north of DR upper level conditions look decent for some intensification as shown her by the GFS.


Indeed...
I don't think there is much a of northerly component to her llc by looking off the lastest visible loop?

Link

Quoting serialteg:


thing is its 1005mb+ and u underestimate it but once it knocks your door... ive been around a while and im tellin u this ones strong


went thru Hugo, evaced for floyd...had a few others skirt by...tropical systems are nothing to play with regardless of size...
Quoting serialteg:


thing is its 1005mb+ and u underestimate it but once it knocks your door... ive been around a while and im tellin u this ones strong
Thanks for the first hand obs....

Some forget what a 50 MPH wind feels like till your in it.

93Hrs GFS
Due west still.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
Quoting angiest:
Who keeps throwing dropsondes in the Gulf?



08/03 110803144631300 Air Force AF300 URNT15, UZNT13

Probably mapping out the high in the GOMEX to see how far west this thing can actually get.
Quoting DestinJeff:
GFS +90


Dead on Abaco.
and all of you saying "91L is a monster"!!!
To see this thing going poof and dead!!
Quoting angiest:
Who keeps throwing dropsondes in the Gulf?


Hurricane hunters do about every days 3 or less, all year round. Like they exercise the planes or something. Usually in the area of the NNE Gulf of Mexico.
When will we hear from the HH?
1652. aquak9
SHES COMING BACK GUYS....LOOK AT THE BRAND NEW STORMS JUST FIRING OFF TO HER NORTHWEST CIRCULATION!

Link

Starting to lift north at 96Hrs, but another close call. GFS has been pretty consistent with intensification once it reaches the bahamas.
1655. MahFL
Convection closer to the center now, on the NE side.
1657. SLU
Quoting BoroDad17:


One issue with that is we are already at 5-0-0, which means would have to go 11-9-5 the rest of the season... kind of hard to see (statement assumes Emily DOESN'T make hurricane)


If this forecast is to verify then we're in for a very wild ride.
99Hrs
Recon is up

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 16:30Z
Date: August 3, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 01

Current Loc = 16:30:00Z 17.700N 64.817W
would not be surprised to see a major out of this might be a good bet. wish casinos took bets on this
1662. MahFL
I might be wrong but to my eyes, the shear to the west seems to have weakened a bit, maybe by 30 %.
1663. pottery
In the meantime, a wave exiting Africa with visible spin (no models are making anything of it) and the Tropical Atlantic is looking pretty dormant....

Lovely weather here at 11n 61w.
Scattered cloud, brisk SE winds, low humidity.
Nice!
1665. MahFL
Still tracking about 275 degrees.
1667. pottery
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yes, Dukus, we are approaching the peak of the season, I think. Wouldn't it be nice to have a simple chart that showed when the peak of the hurricane season was here in the Atlantic basin?

But for naught. The descendents of book burners and their like minded cohorts have made their presence known here on this blog and have shown a hateful grudge toward "The Chart".

As a result, we now have to suffer in ignorance and apathy and maybe hemorrhoids (from sitting so long waiting for it to come back).

hahahahahhhh, nice one!
1668. Skylink
Starting to look a little intresting in the BOC. Even looks to have a bit of spin. Pushing towards Texas, cant see how though with the High Pressure in place. Any data on this?

all i have ishttp://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/di splaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=vi s
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



08/03 110803144631300 Air Force AF300 URNT15, UZNT13

Probably mapping out the high in the GOMEX to see how far west this thing can actually get.


It's in the usual spot for the usual every few day jaunt.. Dropped two so far.. don't always see that.
What are the chances that Emily stays weak enough that she takes a more rounded out turn. She is headed due west now. So wouldn't whats going to make her turn have to come down father and get her. I guess my question is you have some of the outlier models back in the GOM when/should the central - east Gulf Coast start to pay more attention? Miss AL Fl area.
Quoting Skyepony:


It's in the usual spot for the usual every few day jaunt.. Dropped two so far.. don't always see that.


I didn't realize this was a regular thing, thanks for the info.
Emily roof top is being blown off from its COC.
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yes, Dukus, we are approaching the peak of the season, I think. Wouldn't it be nice to have a simple chart that showed when the peak of the hurricane season was here in the Atlantic basin?

But for naught. The descendents of book burners and their like minded cohorts have made their presence known here on this blog and have shown a hateful grudge toward "The Chart".

As a result, we now have to suffer in ignorance and apathy and maybe hemorrhoids (from sitting so long waiting for it to come back).


I don't know what you're talking about....

1674. WxLogic
The G-IV flight departing in 30min to 40min should help out on the 00Z runs... may be 18Z.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
SHES COMING BACK GUYS....LOOK AT THE BRAND NEW STORMS JUST FIRING OFF TO HER NORTHWEST CIRCULATION!

Link


Looks like some forming to her E and SE sides too. And a tiny bit on the N side?

She may be down but definitely not out. She's a fighter for sure!
Quoting pottery:
In the meantime, ...the Tropical Atlantic is looking pretty dormant....

Lovely weather here .
Nice!


...perhaps we should request Aquak9 to task a recoon mission up to Michigan to see if Jeff Masters is REALLY on vacation.

Hmm, maybe trying to wrap convection around COC??
Quoting fredric1979:
What are the chances that Emily stays weak enough that she takes a more rounded out turn. She is headed due west now. So wouldn't whats going to make her turn have to come down father and get her. I guess my question is you have some of the outlier models back in the GOM when/should the central - east Gulf Coast start to pay more attention? Miss AL Fl area.


just my observation: the disarray of Emily is making it harder for the models to predict her movement. definitely do not see any of the forecasted NW movement and based on visual observation, do not see much to change that in the short term. until Emily gets more organized, the models are going to have a hard time predicting her movements. this is a time for visual and guessing predictions lol rounded out turn and maybe even a complete miss of a turn could be in the works for Emily.
1680. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...perhaps we should request Aquak9 to task a recoon mission up to Michigan to see if Jeff Masters is REALLY on vacation.

Yeah!
Masters on Vacation/No storms = Climatic Anomaly.

Is this what Climate Change means????
Charlie anyone? OR what Charlie was supposed to do instead of the sharp turn inland before blasting Tampa. Seems like a similar set up.
Could we see Emily downgraded to a TD?????
1680. pottery 12:46 PM EDT on August 03, 2011 +1
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...perhaps we should request Aquak9 to task a recoon mission up to Michigan to see if Jeff Masters is REALLY on vacation.
Yeah!
Masters on Vacation/No storms = Climatic Anomaly.

Is this what Climate Change means????





pott, I think you may be onto something there... is Aqua available for a mission?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2011 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 16:44:32 N Lon : 69:51:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : +6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -21.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 16:32:24 N Lon: 69:15:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.5 degrees
Quoting pottery:

Yeah!
Masters on Vacation/No storms = Climatic Anomaly.

Is this what Climate Change means????

Yeah, that normally happens, When Dr M goes on holiday, so does the ATL.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
SHES COMING BACK GUYS....LOOK AT THE BRAND NEW STORMS JUST FIRING OFF TO HER NORTHWEST CIRCULATION!

Link

looks like she made a slight jog to the SW at the end of the loop.
I'm forecasting 3-6 named storms in August, with a very slight possibility of seeing 7 named storms. We should see an active mid-late August, and especially into September.

I really don't see how we WON'T make it to 16+ named storms.
Quoting SLU:
CSU August 3rd hurricane forecast.

The numbers from April have been maintained calling for a very active hurricane season.

16-9-5.


Could get quite active later this month.
Quoting Skyepony:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2011 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 16:44:32 N Lon : 69:51:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : +6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -21.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 16:32:24 N Lon: 69:15:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.5 degrees
Steady decline on the SSD numbers, too: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/05L-list.txt

But the rapid weakening flag went off a while ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Could we see Emily downgraded to a TD?????


Depends on what kind of winds the HH finds in a few minutes.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Could we see Emily downgraded to a TD?????
Unlikely, unless significant disorganization occurs while over Hispaniola, especially since Hurricane hunters have found gusts up to 65 MPH. This is only my opinion however.
Rapid weakening flag doesnt mean nothing just an estimation...wouldn't worry about it.
I think Emily will pass south of the second forecast point..imo
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Rapid weakening flag doesnt mean nothing just an estimation...wouldn't worry about it.
Oh, okay, thanks so much.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Depends on what kind of winds the HH finds in a few minutes.

Just thought i would ask, going to bed for real now, night all.
Excpect Models to Shift West in the next run... GFS the current east outliner has shifted west as shown by the numerous posts below...

I think Emily will shoot the gap between Florida and Grand Bahama Island and then Recurve out to Sea.

However... there could be a Florida landfall... if the system makes a turn over westren haiti


Quoting AussieStorm:
Could we see Emily downgraded to a TD?????


I don't think it's likely, though we could see it dropped to 40mph.

She's still going west though....

If she can hold to life for the next 24 hours, we should see her improve quite quickly.
1701. ncstorm
12Z NOGAPS..florida/bahamas then out to sea 120 hours out

Link
Whether or not Emily is downgraded to a tropical depression or weaker tropical storm depends on what kind of winds the Hurricane Hunters find in the storm. I suspect they will still find 40-45 knot wind speeds, so if Emily is weaker, just slightly.
1703. MahFL
Quoting miliohara:
Charlie anyone? OR what Charlie was supposed to do instead of the sharp turn inland before blasting Tampa. Seems like a similar set up.


Charlie did not hit Tampa, he turned right before Tampa and hit Punta Gorda.
We have a naked swirl on the loose. Jogging WSW from what I can see. The main surface circulation has completely decoupled from the rest of the convective mass and the MLC. This system continues to boggle the mind.
Quoting WarEagle8:
looks like she made a slight jog to the SW at the end of the loop.


She's pumping the ridge. Joke
Even though storms can of course form without it, the MJO is not looking too hot for the rest of the month.

(On the other hand, they have the propensity to change their minds on a near daily basis).
I'm think it make a quick landfall in se fl then start lifting out imo.
looking at RGB image convection continues to increase to emilys NE and Se quadrant lets see if this is a trend , and i expect Emily will be a 40 MPh TS at 2pm , but i would like to see what recon finds
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whether or not Emily is downgraded to a tropical depression or weaker tropical storm depends on what kind of winds the Hurricane Hunters find in the storm. I suspect they will still find 40-45 knot wind speeds, so if Emily is weaker, just slightly.


Actually, the 'naked swirl' is turning pretty fast on the loops. Just starting to get some convection there, too.
how is wind shear over emily
Quoting miliohara:
Charlie anyone? OR what Charlie was supposed to do instead of the sharp turn inland before blasting Tampa. Seems like a similar set up.


First, Charley didn't "blast" Tampa. I was there, had very light rain and about 30 mph gusts. Secondly, Charley was projected to hit the Tampa Bay area, but took a last minute right turn and came ashore in the Fort Myers area, specifically Captiva Island and then Punta Gorda. Then went up the spine of the state to Orlando, exited around Daytona Beach.
My VERY limited understanding is in MOST cases, the weaker the storm the more west it goes,because the upper level winds are too high to steer the storm. taller the clouds the stonger the storm and the more upper level steering i get that. What are the low level steering patterns, if this thing cant get its act together?


Some models taking this system towards Western Florida?? o_O interesting to see how the next set of models do.
I think we need to throw the noodles out the window and look out the window..Em is heading west
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 16:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.8N 65.5W
Location: 56 miles (90 km) to the SE (139°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 4,880 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 160° at 34 knots (From the SSE at ~ 39.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -4°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Quoting yonzabam:


Actually, the 'naked swirl' is turning pretty fast on the loops. Just starting to get some convection there, too.

I agree. It's still a pretty robust circulation. Latest imagery almost hinted at some vertical life on the eastern edge. But I would not be a bit surprised if she began building cold convective cloud tops anytime in the near future near her LLC.
Quoting fredric1979:
My VERY limited understanding is in MOST cases, the weaker the storm the more west it goes,because the upper level winds are too high to steer the storm. taller the clouds the stonger the storm and the more upper level steering i get that. What are the low level steering patterns, if this thing cant get its act together?


weak emily calls for contiued west movement crossing jamaica and next the yucatan...
1718. SeaMule
she is staying due west....and will NOT curve as forecast. emily will stay weak enough to NOT be influenced...and will make it into the GOM as a cyclone, albeit weak.

then the fun begins. a cyclone in August. in the GOM.

Quoting yonzabam:


Actually, the 'naked swirl' is turning pretty fast on the loops. Just starting to get some convection there, too.

I agree
Quoting SeaMule:
she is staying due west....and will NOT curve as forecast. emily will stay weak enough to NOT be influenced...and will make it into the GOM as a cyclone, albeit weak.

then the fun begins. a cyclone in August. in the GOM.


As silly as that might have sounded a few days ago, I am really beginning to believe this is a very distinct possibility.
Quoting MahFL:


Charlie did not hit Tampa, he turned right before Tampa and hit Punta Gorda.



I did say it turned inland before blasting Tampa. Tampa was the place it was supposed to hit but did not as we all know.
I think emily just decoupled... but that's just me.
Usually the "jog" that you see in a LLC when convection is firing around it, is an optical illusion... meaning it gives the appearance of a jog, but really it is not. Unless the trend continues, a due westerly direction continues for now.
1725. MahFL
I think we now have some beneficial SE shear and the clouds are moving back towards the center.
1726. 7544
maybe she will go over south fla into the gulf then the next trof comes and send her back to se fl from the west side krazy but so is emily lol
Quoting cat5hurricane:
We have a naked swirl on the loose. Jogging WSW from what I can see. The main surface circulation has completely decoupled from the rest of the convective mass and the MLC. This system continues to boggle the mind.


doesnt she know thats against the law in most countries
EC you are absolutely correct Charlie did the unthinkable and totally missed Tampa. Sanibel/Captiva took a mighty hit along with Punt Gorda, I believe it was ine of the few times Disney World actually had to close...
Quoting fredric1979:


doesnt she know thats against the law in most countries

I think this one is just making the laws as she goes along.
1730. Buhdog
Quoting Seflhurricane:
how is wind shear over emily


i believe an anti-cyclone to her south west is causing this.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look at the motion of the low clouds north of Hispaniola in this loop...

Link


That's is some nasty shear.
1732. DVG
Quoting stormhank:
I think Emily will pass south of the second forecast point..imo
I am almost always wrong about these things, but I do believe you are correct. It seems that the hwrf, cmc, and ukmet models have the best track as to how far west when it hits 20 north. If the rest of those models forecasts bears out, it is going to get interesting.

In it's weakened condition, are conditions such that a parallel to the south coast of Cuba path for longer than anyone anticipates is possible?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

As silly as that might have sounded a few days ago, I am really beginning to believe this is a very distinct possibility.


I agree,the NHC has to make a big shift west at the 5pm advisory.
wind shear to high right now!!
How is PR holding out?
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
1738. lucreto
Quoting miliohara:



I did say it turned inland before blasting Tampa. Tampa was the place it was supposed to hit but did not as we all know.


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I agree,the NHC has to make a big shift west at the 5pm advisory.

Or at the very least expand the cone westward.
Talking about the TX heat its 103 in Dallas already...high expected near 111 today!ouch
1741. zawxdsk
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


First, Charley didn't "blast" Tampa. I was there, had very light rain and about 30 mph gusts. Secondly, Charley was projected to hit the Tampa Bay area, but took a last minute right turn and came ashore in the Fort Myers area, specifically Captiva Island and then Punta Gorda. Then went up the spine of the state to Orlando, exited around Daytona Beach.


Had the girlfriend at the time call from a hotel in Orlando when she was in the eye of the storm. She was on vacation and got caught at the last second. She said that she wished we could trade places and I told her that I wished we could!
1742. SeaMule
look how far south she is from the tropical forecast points. If you run the RGB, and turn the tropical points on...she is way off the "mark".

and it is a VERY tight and fast circulation. AND convection is starting to re-fire.

She will miss Hispaniola....and unfortunately for us...might just traverse south of the islands....
and slash through the tip of Cuba into the GOM, as a major hurricane.

a very real possibility...given what I am seeing. The models are good...but...

I remember katrina. when she limped into the GOM...no one thought much..models were way off.


just sayin....
Quoting fredric1979:


doesnt she know thats against the law in most countries


There is a difference between a "naked swirl" and a "naked swirlie".
1744. lucreto
You all are insane Gulf-bound?? Emily will either die or move out to see it will not reach the gulf as a TC.
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.



I live in Winter Haven and I'm going to tell you that I clocked winds at 110 myself with my wind meter
Historically, it's a bit of a mixed bag what seasons do in August after a fast early start (for all seasons with 4 or more storms prior to Aug 1st):

1886 – 3 storms, all majors; 1887 – 2 storms, both majors; 1908 – 1 storm; 1909 – 3 storms, 1 major; 1916 – 4 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major; 1933 – 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major*; 1936 – 6 storms, 3 hurricanes; 1959 – 1 storm; 1966 – 1 storm, major; 1995 – 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major**; 1997 – none; 2003 – 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major; 2005 – 5 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major; 2008 – 4 storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major***

* - 2 storms formed in august and then later became majors, but only in September.
** - Luis became a major in September.
*** - Hanna became a hurricane in September.
New blog.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look at the motion of the low clouds north of Hispaniola in this loop...

Link


ok, now what
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?





why is recon over puerto rico
Moving due west or SW but not NW at all. NHC should be moving the cone soon it takes them a while to decide that, since there are so many things to consider. I don't blame them it is better to keep Hispaniola prepared for the worst than to just jump and change the cone.
Quoting SeaMule:
look how far south she is from the tropical forecast points. If you run the RGB, and turn the tropical points on...she is way off the "mark".

and it is a VERY tight and fast circulation. AND convection is starting to re-fire.

She will miss Hispaniola....and unfortunately for us...might just traverse south of the islands....
and slash through the tip of Cuba into the GOM, as a major hurricane.

a very real possibility...given what I am seeing. The models are good...but...

I remember katrina. when she limped into the GOM...no one thought much..models were way off.


just sayin....
It just can't happen with the high pressure over Texas. Just can't.
NEW BLOG!!!
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
1756. Buhdog
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You are 100% off base kid. Your studies? This ought to be good. It was small...not alot of surge very true. VERY HIGH END CAT 4 ....yes.
I know some might laugh and thats ok , but it wouldn't surprise me if HHs find Emily a bit stronger!
now eveything IS point out to the GOM??? lol ,dreamers!!
I do believe the cone will be shifted westward to include most, if not all of the southern two thirds of FL, and the track will probably end up "splitting the uprights" between FL and the Bahamas... JMO
Quoting lucreto:
You all are insane Gulf-bound?? Emily will either die or move out to see it will not reach the gulf as a TC.


I'll give you 4 to 1 that she does. She will make it to the Gulf, strengthen some, then make that recurve, button hook move. Going anywhere from Ms/Al to the Florida Gulf coast.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Moving due west or SW but not NW at all. NHC should be moving the cone soon it takes them a while to decide that, since there are so many things to consider. I don't blame them it is better to keep Hispaniola prepared for the worst than to just jump and change the cone.
I think Hispaniola will be spared from any sustained tropical storm force winds. The Dominican should be safe from flooding too... We'll have to wait to see if Emily can pull more rain Haiti's direction.
again new blog all
Quoting tropicfreak:


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?


those pictures just made my heart stop.
Everyone whatever you just posted repost on the new blog.
Starting to refire convection as wind shear weakens slightly, according to the CIMMS shear map, went from 30 knots to 20 knots.

Definitely no depression, this is a 45-50 mph. Tropical Storm that is sheared. A classic "sheared TS"

Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


Get some accurate sources. I was in it. It "blasted" a lot of people. You can't rewrite history.

Get your facts straight.

Unless you're just being a troll, then carry on, but make your lunacy a little more obvious next time.
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You are High!! Charley Killed HUMANS!!!

Gusts to 150 plus. Split North captiva in 2.

Did you personally witness the damage??

15 Billion in damage.

Worst storm for SW florida since Donna in 1960

Get a clue!!
So let me get this right...  Emily is a naked jogger?!?  Bad girl!

I'm still confused with the models and the NHC track... they seem to indicate that she would start her NW turn... now (or in 5 minutes). 

Also funny is how insistent the HWRF has been is hugging the SE coast, though given her continuing westward track seems more and more unlikely.

NHC gets paid to do this so I'll just sit back and watch.  Learn and enjoy, and hope that it spares Hispaniola.


1769. robj144
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


What are you talking about?!?! Charley made landfall as a cat. 4. Where are your "studies" coming from?

Quoting tropicfreak:


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?


Thank you.
If you were in Punta Gorda when Charley hit you would not be downplaying the damage it did. Sanibel/Captiva has still not fully recovered nor has Punta Gorda Cat 4 def. Could Em pull a stunt like that un-likely. I sometimes think that technology in meteorology has made it more difficult at times for the NHC, I know they used reports from ships and the islands back in the 50's to base their projected paths on maybe thats what they should do with Em. JMO though
How long will the trof that is supposed to pull Emily to the northwest linger low enough to do this?
1773. robj144
Quoting weaverwxman:
If you were in Punta Gorda when Charley hit you would not be downplaying the damage it did. Sanibel/Captiva has still not fully recovered nor has Punta Gorda Cat 4 def. Could Em pull a stunt like that un-likely. I sometimes think that technology in meteorology has made it more difficult at times for the NHC, I know they used reports from ships and the islands back in the 50's to base their projected paths on maybe thats what they should do with Em. JMO though


It split an island in two which is hard to do with 100 mph winds:

Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


ok, I'm not into criticizing other on the blog, but you deserve it here, you are just flat out stupid. Either that or you are another one trying to cause trouble, I guess I spoke to soon about the blog improving...

Try and tell that to those that experienced it. You don't belong here.

Some of Charley's destruction could be confused with a high end tornado, even with how tiny it was and how fast it was moving, which all the more testifies to the power it had.
1775. Tygor
I would say Texas would welcome Emily (as a tropical storm), but it would just die upon entering the no-rain shield and 110 degree temps.
Quoting Jedkins01:


ok, I'm not into criticizing other on the blog, but you deserve it here, you are just flat out stupid. Either that or you are another one trying to cause trouble, I guess I spoke to soon about the blog improving...

Try and tell that to those that experienced it. You don't belong here.

Some of Charley's destruction could be confused with a high end tornado, even with how tiny it was and how fast it was moving, which all the more testifies to the power it had.


If they were to reclassify it it would more than likely be listed as a Cat 5.
If you read the advisories it said the wind at the surface was at least 145mph at the surface. From the last wind mesaurement before landfall, the pressure dropped another 13 mb. The NHC lists it as a gust, but if you talk to the staff at Charlotte Regional Medical Center, the wind instrument there pegged at 172mph and stayed there for a solid 5 minutes before the instrument was ripped off the building. I was in another large commercial hospital building that was totally destroyed by the hurricane. All 3 hospitals , 7 fire stations, 6 schools all destroyed. Charley was anything but overrated.
Jed that wasn't directed at you. I'm on my phone so it's hard to scroll back through posts.
TS.Emily's travel-speed was 15.7mph([25.2]k/h) on a heading of 278.6degrees(West)

Copy&paste 15.3n63.6w, 15.6n64.9w-15.9n66.3w, 15.9n66.3w-16.3n67.7w, 16.3n67.7w-16.6n68.9w, 16.6n68.9w-16.8n70.3w, ctm, kin, 16.6n68.9w-17.63n77.17w, 16.6n68.9w-18.45n87.77w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for []mGMT then []mGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passage over Chetumal,Mexico ~3days from now
after passing 5.5miles south of Jamaica ~1day3hours20minutes from now
FROM NWS RALEIGH DISCUSSION:


Given a broad and modest upper level trough and a slightly
strengthening upper level jet over the northeast/middle Atlantic on
Monday...Emily should have her precipitation focused along and just
left of the track but still well offshore. Another player will be a
stalled cold front which should extend NE to SW along the eastern
Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas providing an good focus for
precipitation. The precipitation distribution across the eastern
Carolinas will be interesting as it is possible there will be a
minimum in precipitation along the coast in an area of short wave ridging
and lower precipitable water air between Emily and the approaching shortwave trough
from the northwest. For now will include low chance probability of precipitation for Monday
into Tuesday for much of central NC with best chance across the
southern/central coastal plain. High temperatures should continue to range
in the low and middle 90s.
It's just like last year. Storms struggle to form and survive. Getting kicked out by a trough is a common theme these past couple of years. Starting to think the East coast will not have a Hurricane for quite some time. Gulf coast seems it will be a september or october hit with the Texas High not budging