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Tropical Storm Don unimpressive so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Don formed yesterday from an African tropical wave that crossed into the Gulf of Mexico, and the thus-far unimpressive storm appears poised to bring tropical storm conditions to the lower Texas coast by Friday night. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane arrived in the center of Don around 8am EDT this morning, and has found Don to be a small tropical storm with top winds near 40 mph. The 7:57am EDT center fix found a central pressure of 1002 mb, which is 2 mb higher than NHC was estimating in its 8am EDT advisory. However, a pass through the center at 9:49am EDT found the pressure had dropped 2mb, to 1000 mb. Top reliable surface winds seen by the Air Force plane with its SFMR instrument as of 9:45am EDT were 41 mph, at 8:10 am EDT. Water vapor satellite images show a region of dry air to the northwest of Don, over the western Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group and the SHIPS model show a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear. The shear is from strong upper level winds out of the north. Since the atmosphere to the north of Don is relatively moist, the moderate shear will not be as damaging to the storm as if these winds had been blowing from the northwest, where the driest air lies. Thus the shear direction is often just as important as the strength of the shear, and in Don's case, the shear direction should not force significant amounts of storm-disrupting dry air into the core. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are near 29°C, which is 2.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold typically needed to maintain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Don.

Satellite imagery shows that Don is a very small storm. Thus, the storm is vulnerable to pockets of dry air and modest-sized jets of wind shear that we can't see from the relatively coarse-resolution data collected by surface stations, hurricane hunter flights, and satellites. The moderate wind shear over Don is keeping Don's circulation tilted so that the surface center is displaced from the center at higher levels. This tilt is keeping the storm from intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest increase in the intensity of the thunderstorm's near Don's center began at 9am EDT, but this could be a transient burst and not a sign the storm is undergoing intensification.


Figure 2. The latest drought map for Texas shows that over 75% of the state is in exceptional drought--the highest category of drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for Don
The big question for Don is, will it be a boon or bane for Texas? The state is currently suffering through its worst drought in recorded history, and Don has the potential to bring some decent drought-busting rains to the state. If Don can expand in size and intensify to a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm, it has the capability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of beneficial rains to the state. However, we have a Goldilocks problem. We can't have Don intensifying into a hurricane, or its winds and flooding might bring hundreds of millions in damage. Neither do we want Don to stay in its current state, which is too small and weak to bring significant rains to Texas. If Don follows the current NHC forecast, which brings the storm up to a moderate-strength tropical storm, that would be just right. This forecast is low-confidence, though, since Don's small size makes it prone to sudden changes in strength, either upward or downward. NHC is giving Don just a 14% chance of intensifying into a hurricane in its 5am advisory, but this could easily change upward if Don manages to overcome its vertical tilt and start consolidating an eyewall. I put the odds of Don reaching hurricane strength at 30%. None of the computer models is predicting Don will become a hurricane.

A small system like Don is relatively difficult to resolve in some of the computer models we use to forecast tropical storm track, and the forecast tracks of Don from these models have a higher spread than usual. For those of you wondering about your odds of experiencing tropical storm force winds, I recommend NHC's wind probability forecast, which is showing that Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor, Texas have the highest chance of 39+ mph winds: 40%.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

down to 40 mph at 2pm
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Very wrong question to ask someone on this blog.

never mind :)
Me thinks Don is "Done" No time left. Big rain maker for a small area but better than none! Kinda wish it was here.

Good afternoon all. I am one of many lurkers and seasonal posters etc. Well what can I say winter is boring here in Houston so I am usually here during hurricane season lol! I am hoping Don brings us some rain here to my suburb and surrounding areas. My fellow Texans and I need some rain big time. I do have to say though, if I have learned anything from these storms, is to never assume anything. These thing can weaken, and then it seems as soon as they hit the coast they intensify or just before, just as Ike did. And of course our little friend Humberto. My point? Expect the worse, prepare for the worse, and even if you over prepared oh well because the next storm is right around the corner. That, and because something weakens, that does not mean it is dead. It amazes me how people seem to think Don will go poof...hey..that little sucker held on through everything to get where he is now...so never count any tropical disturbance out. Well, I guess all we can do now is sit back, have fun, and pray this thing brings a ton of rain to us Texans!
Quoting PcolaDan:

?



nevermind i looked at the quote wrong my mistake, just forget i said anything. i'm sorry.
that 476 comment was a little off targtet me thinks
new update here we have two light blue colors here!! maybe two tropical waves to watch here!!
NWS Houston posted this discussion update an hour ago:

Ts Don is currently located north of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and continues to move to the northwest at around 15 miles per hour.
With this track Don will move inland along the Texas coast
sometime late Friday night. At this time the greatest impact to
southeast Texas will be from higher rainfall chances. One to three
inches of rain are expected with this storm...with the higher
rainfall amounts expected across areas closer to Matagorda Bay. 38
Great another "tool" to have tool-measuring contest over.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
down to 40 mph at 2pm



DON looks like a lost puppy right now i agree hangs on to tropical storm barely..5pm may be a different story though..i think now no way don makes it to the central tx coast they will have to change the track more up to the texas la line in the next advisory..
12Z NGP/CMC/GFS pretty much agree now on P10L developing to some extent. Assuming it detaches from the Monsoonal TROF it'll be able to develop.

So far is has a decent 850MB VORT signature, but due to the broad nature of it... it will take take to consolidate and break off:

everything gooing up here!!
I'm thinking of driving from orlando back home to pensacola beach to surf. Anyone know if the winds/weather are going to calm down friday-saturday? gas is too expensive to drive that far if the windsv are still blowing 20mph and destroying the groundswell!tia.
We will still have a TS at 2, track at 5 will be more north with same intensity forecast as 11. Landfall near Matagorda Bay.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Great another "tool" to have tool-measuring contest over.


Mines gonna have a higher rating then yours!
Will the moisture from the north help Don to build convection? Anyone...
Lets all hope it maintains tropical storm status
519. SLU
This deserves a yellow circle

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
1:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28
Location: 24.6°N 90.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
522. srada
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Great another "tool" to have tool-measuring contest over.


almost like facebook?? the horror!!
All this scrolling up to stroke my ego is really tiring.

Does a minus deduct points?
04L/TD/D



Quoting srada:


almost like facebook?? the horror!!


Like this if... I hope it never happens...
Visible satellite shows that Don is really struggling now, more so than expected. Winds are still indicative of a strengthening tropical storm, but the pressure...not so much. Unless Don builds some convection on its northern side, it won't get much stronger. The chances of this making it to hurricane status are very low, IMO.

BTW, cool new feature Wunderground.



Shear may lower some by tomorrow, which may help Don strengthen.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
529. srada
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Like this if... I hope it never happens...


or REPOST if you like...
530. Jax82
RIP Don, again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Visible satellite shows that Don is really struggling now, more so than expected. Winds are still indicative of a strengthening tropical storm, but the pressure...not so much. Unless Don builds some convection on its northern side, it won't get much stronger. The chances of this making it to hurricane status are very low, IMO.

BTW, cool new feature Wunderground.



Shear may lower some by tomorrow, which may help Don strengthen.

lets hope don maintains ts status until landfall. the hurricanes will come next month. is recon still investigating?
Quoting SLU:
This deserves a yellow circle



The little blip embedded in the dry settled airmass west of Africa or the little wavelet over the Antilles?
Quoting NotCircumventing:
All this scrolling up to stroke my ego is really tiring.

Does a minus deduct points?


Gosh.. how the heck am I expected to earn a Gold Medal with this cockamamie scoring system?

Tropical Storm DON
...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

1:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28
Location: 24.6°N 90.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


pressure not falling or rising? how much longer is recon going to be there?
Funktop shows Don trying to throw up some new green. He had lost the green earlier. Wonder if it will persist.
The city of Dubuque said it had received reports of 14.33 inches of rain since 6 p.m. Wednesday.

Philip said it was still raining in Dubuque and that there was a 60 to
70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area through the
end of Thursday, when the chance of rain was expected to diminish.

http://www.press-citizen.c​om/article/20110728/NEWS01​/110728001/Foot-r ain-delug​es-Dubuque

More than 19.5 inches of rain has fallen in the South Korean capital
since late Tuesday, the weather bureau said, making it the heaviest July
deluge since 1907.


Rain continues to batter mountainous regions of the country, prompting
authorities to draft in the military to help with rescue and clean-up
operations.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk​/news/worldnews/asia/south​korea/8668481/Hea vy-rains-​and-landslides-hit-South-K​orea.html
Quoting SLU:
This deserves a yellow circle



Indeed... I would expect one soon in 24 hours or so. That's my take on it as it would be closer to 50W and convection (in theory) should be a lot more prevalent and warmer waters to assist further on that.

SAL is currently the limiting factor



To its current favor... is under a decent shear environment and an ULAC is over it:

Quoting NotCircumventing:
We will still have a TS at 2, track at 5 will be more north with same intensity forecast as 11. Landfall near Matagorda Bay.


Honestly thats what I have thought the whole time...I think strong tropical storm to cat 1 hurricane just south of Brazoria county, the county I live in.
Good example of tropical cyclone development during the downward phase. Typhoon Mo-an I believe..
does anyone have new data from the hurricane hunters?
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Great another "tool" to have tool-measuring contest over.


Only if they do a tally of who had the most at the end of the day. Daily prize winners, that sort of thing.

And it wouldn't cause any sort of problems whatsoever. None. Whatsoever.

Don was just too small to play. Lot of heart but just too small. He is the Rudy of ND. The Doug Flutie of the NFL.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Woah does everyone see the numbers in the top right of all the posts? Thats a nice tool!
woah that's cool
Quoting OceanBlue78:


Honestly thats what I have thought the whole time...I think strong tropical storm to cat 1 hurricane just south of Brazoria county, the county I live in.



It's also very possible that it could be a direct hit on freeport, perhaps even a little north of that.
Quoting OceanBlue78:


Honestly thats what I have thought the whole time...I think strong tropical storm to cat 1 hurricane just south of Brazoria county, the county I live in.


Thats what i said last night too.
The wave out in the CATL has good model support, the GFS develops a low pressure area but doesn't strengthen it. The NOGAPS & CMC develop it into a tropical cyclone. It is probably one of the most defined waves yet.
Quoting angiest:
Funktop shows Don trying to throw up some new green. He had lost the green earlier. Wonder if it will persist.


ewwwww
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The wave out in the CATL has good model support, the GFS develops a low pressure area but doesn't strengthen it. The NOGAPS & CMC develop it into a tropical cyclone. It is probably one of the most defined waves yet.

teddy your thoughts on don and do you have any new info from the hurricane hunters?
FWIW, from the TROPDISC:


TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 90.7W AT 28/1800 UTC
OR 410 NM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR ABOUT 370 NM E OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. DON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 90W ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Quoting floridaboy14:
does anyone have new data from the hurricane hunters?


HH is heading home now.

The latest update you saw from NHC is pretty much the latest the HH reported.
New convection firing on the northern side of Don.

quite agree with you SLU the area of disturbed weather in the CATL needs some recognition. the ingestion of dry air to it;g north is limiting convection. most of the models are hinting of development near the antilles come sun/monday time frame. SLU watch it same position and date of hurricane ALLEN 31 yrs ago
Quoting floridaboy14:

teddy your thoughts on don and do you have any new info from the hurricane hunters?


Weakening is possible today as Don attempts to mix out that dry air from its core but I expect strengthening tomorrow to a 50-60mph TS before landfall on Saturday. The new info indicates there is a lot of dry air in its circulation at this time. IMO, I think the tropical wave in the CATL could be a bigger threat.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New convection firing on the northern side of Don.


it will peak out 50 60mph if it gets going
The CMC 144 hour vort map .
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The wave out in the CATL has good model support, the GFS develops a low pressure area but doesn't strengthen it. The NOGAPS & CMC develop it into a tropical cyclone. It is probably one of the most defined waves yet.


Agreed. However, unless it develops before entering the Caribbean, it probably won't have a chance until it makes it into the western Caribbean.

Most storms that form outside of the Cape Verde will probably form in the western Caribbean, like we've seen with Don.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 19

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 17:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.1N 91.0W
Location: 274 miles (441 km) to the SSW (192°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,920 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 120° at 27 knots (From the ESE at ~ 31.0 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
D-value: 50 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 25 knots (~ 28.8mph)
Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)
Don isn't doing well right now. Multiple lower-level outflow boundaries can be noted moving towards the north.

As you probably know, this is the result of downdrafts crashing at the surface and moving outwards. Expect convection to gradually weaken, sort of what happened yesterday, but this time on a grandeur scale.

Quoting hydrus:
The CMC 144 hour vort map .
a more westerly track i see
560. P451
Quoting robie1conobie:
I'm thinking of driving from orlando back home to pensacola beach to surf. Anyone know if the winds/weather are going to calm down friday-saturday? gas is too expensive to drive that far if the windsv are still blowing 20mph and destroying the groundswell!tia.


swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/pensacola-florida
Based on the final recon fixes is looks like Don's weakening has peaked for the day @ 1005. Surely wasn't expecting that here, I was personally expecting Don to maintain today.
the GFS has not been on the vball this season. check out ECMWF, very agressive with the CATL wave
563. P451
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don isn't doing well right now. Multiple lower-level outflow boundaries can be noted moving towards the north.

As you probably know, this is the result of downdrafts crashing at the surface and moving outwards. Expect convection to gradually weaken, sort of what happened yesterday, but this time on a grandeur scale.



Nice imagery.

Dry air and shear...tilted vort in the 500 level...poor upper level wind flow.

Just nothing good going for Don.

There is a risk he could get torn apart/decoupled.
That dry air is choking Don.
I'm visualizing Luca Brasi with a piano wire around his neck.
Just the TWC trop update, guys said that shear was keeping convection confined to the southern side of Don. he said wind shear was"going to be variable and less off to the NW of Don. Anonr got a current wind shear'wind shear forecast handy?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Agreed. However, unless it develops before entering the Caribbean, it probably won't have a chance until it makes it into the western Caribbean.

Most storms that form outside of the Cape Verde will probably form in the western Caribbean, like we've seen with Don.


It appears that the models do develop it before entering the Caribbean, at least the CMC and NOGAPS do.
I am starting to think that in about 8-12 hrs Don will restrengthen...it has to be past the shear it is in...it has time to mositen up it's surroundings and if it can do that and get into the area of low shear that it is moving towards, I think that is a good chance for Don to become the 60mph storm that is being predicted or even a min cat 1 hurricane. The circulation seems to be pretty decent, so I think Don could really ramp up quick if the conditions become right.
Day 7 of the North American Hemisphere..if I am reading this map right, it looks like the bermuda high isnt that strong..leaving the east coast door wide open..

Extend/Depth of Dry Air currently affecting Don as previously discussed:



You can see from the WV SAT image above that the W GOM remains dry above 850MB, which also verifies with the drop by the HH on the last center fix.

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1005mb (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 27.1°C (80.8°F)
896mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.6°C (70.9°F)
874mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) Approximately 19°C (66°F)
850mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 17°C (63°F)
843mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That dry air is choking Don.
I'm visualizing Luca Brasi with a piano wire around his neck.
Luca would never harm "the Don"...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don isn't doing well right now. Multiple lower-level outflow boundaries can be noted moving towards the north.

As you probably know, this is the result of downdrafts crashing at the surface and moving outwards. Expect convection to gradually weaken, sort of what happened yesterday, but this time on a grandeur scale.



Are you sure that's all outflow? At least some of it looks to be pulling inward, like it is attempting to build some feeders (not necessarily succeeding.)
Like Don, pre-91L may have to deal with land interaction once in the Caribbean, but to a lesser extent. The GFS develops this into a low pressure area, and the less reliable NOGAPS and CMC develop this into a tropical cyclone. However, shear is low, waters are warm, and despite some dry air, the wave has a favorable environment ahead of it until it makes it into the Caribbean. The trade winds are rushing across the area, which is what killed 90L when it first entered the eastern Caribbean. Lots of heavy rain can be expected for the GA's once again though, and in one weak from now, we may be talking about TS Emily in the Gulf of Mexico.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

574. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New convection firing on the northern side of Don.



That convection is on the southern side of the surface circulation.

Impact Weather is sticking to their guns, which is strange since they normally downplay everything.
Don is pulling a Bonnie. Fook.
still watching(ick) TWC, they showing a visible sat view of Don, he looks to have a great/strong surface circ! too bad the upper levels arent cooperating to allow it to grow and enlarge to get the precip shield bigger for Texas.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That dry air is choking Don.
I'm visualizing Luca Brasi with a piano wire around his neck.


That's how the Don takes care of business
hi
0Z ECMWF @ 168 hours - Tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico:



0z ECMWF @ 192 hours - Weakening due to interation with Hispaniola.



0z ECMWF @ 216 hours - Affecting the Bahamas as a strong system.



0z ECMWF @ 240 hours - Trough split off GA/SC coast, system affecting Bahamas now curving out to sea (I think?).

Don is pretty pathetic, at the rate it is going it may only be a wisp of clouds by the time it gets to TX. Pressure is rising according to HH, convection is again waning, circulation is variable and this storm remains tilted.
wow DON has gone all most POOF
Gosh.. how the heck am I expected to earn a Gold Medal with this cockamamie scoring system?

No worries, MonkeyMan, I got you covered.
Quoting tkeith:
Luca would never harm "the Don"...
Noted...lol
.
.
.
We shouldn't mention where Luca wound up. The blog would go to the mattresses.
What is the name of the E storm?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z ECMWF @ 168 hours - Tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico:



0z ECMWF @ 192 hours - Weakening due to interation with Hispaniola.



0z ECMWF @ 216 hours - Affecting the Bahamas as a strong system.



0z ECMWF @ 240 hours - Trough split off GA/SC coast, system affecting Bahamas now curving out to sea (I think?).



that is way to far to know where that storm is going!!
scoring system?
Quoting Tazmanian:
wow DON has gone all most POOF
Taz if you slow cook that crow and put a little BBQ sauce on it, it aint that bad...

:)
wow!! look at the blue!!
There is good model support for Tropical Storm Emily next week. Looks like we will not be as quiet as originally thought.
591. jpsb
Quoting floridaboy14:

it will peak out 50 60mph if it gets going
Don's Doomed! Dry air wanted for questioning. Rain over Texas now suspect.
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
What is the name of the E storm?


Emily.
.
Quoting tkeith:
Taz if you slow cook that crow and put a little BBQ sauce on it, it aint that bad...

:)



lol
Quoting angiest:


Are you sure that's all outflow? At least some of it looks to be pulling inward, like it is attempting to build some feeders (not necessarily succeeding.)
Yeah, some inflow is apparent, but there are a lot of outflow boundaries.
the circulation is still strong and partially exposed. sure dry air is killing it but i dont think it will kill it to northing
I'm not sure Don will even bring much rain anymore, very sad.
when don makes landfall how strong will it be?
a: td
b: nothing at all
c: ts 40-50mph
d: stronger than 50mph im going with c
I think Don is going to come ashore as a DUST DEVIL.


looking at this, it appears that Don will be leaving that 20-30 northerly shear and get into an area more hospitable for strengthening? shear will go from north to easterly or southeasterly and weaken some?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is good model support for Tropical Storm Emily next week. Looks like we will not be as quiet as originally thought.


MJO is coming around the mountain too...
or is my thought process incorrect?
Quoting floridaboy14:
when don makes landfall how strong will it be?
a: td
b: nothing at all
c: ts 40-50mph
d: stronger than 50mph im going with c



D here. I think this recent weakening will reverse course in due time and Don will get back on schedule.
something is spining here
T.S.Don is unorganized..
Quick! Everybody in Texas turn on their sprinklers!
And leave them on to moisten the dry air that's sucking the life outta Don.
sigh... If only drought-busting were that easy.
Now that don is having some prohlems does that have any effect on the track?
Quoting gulfscout:
Now that don is having some prohlems does that have any effect on the track?


yes i think the track will shift more northward at 5pm to the texas la border...
Don vs. Dolly = no comparison

Dolly


Don

What will happen with the moist air coming in from the north, will it help to strengthen the system?

Really curious about this, had posted it a bit back. TIA response.
Latest steering continues to support more NW motion for the time being.
don is nothing,poor bloggers.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


MJO is coming around the mountain too...
Naturally the CMC has it cranked up to hurricane strength ..
Quoting ncstorm:
Day 7 of the North American Hemisphere..if I am reading this map right, it looks like the bermuda high isnt that strong..leaving the east coast door wide open..


Secondary weather: And the Pacific high is bringing warm weather over here in California! or is it the other high in NV

Now back to Don
Once again everyone is back to RIP Don mode, if TWC and the NHC think that it will strengthen slightly then i'm pretty sure he'll live and probably be a little stronger than predicted.
he might start refiring and get more organization if he gets out of that northerly shear

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
something is spining here
so.
Don, you coulda been somebody. You coulda been a contender!
12Z HWRF shows weak system south of Corpus

Guys look at the recent blowup of convection. don is struggling yes but it wont dissipate until making landfall
Quoting prcane4you:
don is nothing,poor bloggers.


They're interesting when they go up or down. Observing them is how we learn. :-)
Turning toward the WPAC...

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten which had been hanging around and intensifying just west of the Philippines causing torrential flooding and killing several people, is now over the South China Sea. Slight intensification should occur over the next 24 hrs as vertical wind shear is light, moisture is plentiful, SSTs are warm, and upper level winds are fairly anticyclonic providing divergence aloft. Within the next day, Nock-Ten should make landfall on the island of Hanoi. Afterwards, it will temporarily reemerge over water in the Gulf of Tonkin, before making landfall again, this time in Vietnam.




Meanwhile, another tropical storm has formed in the Philippine sea, tropical storm Muifa. Fortunately for the Philippines, this storm should not affect the island nation as it is pulled to the north, first by a trough to the NE of Japan, and then by a high currently over the central pacific which will be building in over the WPAC. Looking at upper level conditions, right now wind shear is not the best as it is currently between 15-25 knots over the system. Light anticyclonic flow is providing divergence aloft over most of the system, however, north easterly winds on the east side of the system are pushing air towards the system on the NE side, providing convergence aloft. Despite this, convection has managed to become very intense over the system (< -90C) thanks to the very warm SSTs over in the WPAC as well as a very moist environment. These factors will continue to allow Muifa to gradually strengthen, despite only decent upper level conditions. The big question right now is the track, and whether or not this will be another landfall for Japan. Right now there is quite a bit of disagreement among the models and this is reflected by the large cone of uncertainty in the JTWC forecast.




So, we'll have to watch as time progresses and this storm gets more developed as the models will be able to get a better sense of the track by that time. Main things to take away from this is gradual intensification should occur as it tracks slowly northward. Shouldn't be much of a concern for the Philippines, but Japan, China, Taiwan, and Korea will all have to keep an eye on this one as it looks like it should continue northward, turning more northwestward by next week as blocking over western Russia, China, and Mongolia should prevent any troughs from pulling it out to the east and ridging builds in from the east.

ECMWF and GFS 500mb 8-10 Average Anomalies Comparison

12Z HWRF shows weak system..
Also, 12Z shows nothing on potential Emily...

wow!! that big cold front coming off the east coast next week for the northeast!!
When the meteorologist say there may be a chance for a minimal cat. 1 hurricane they're probably certain theres a pretty good chance of it but dont want people to get all stirred up
Quoting hydrus:
Naturally the CMC has it cranked up to hurricane strength ..



Getting to be that time of year however, Biggies around the corner no doubt.
Despite my pessimistic attitude towards Don, it certainly could still ramp up by the coast like Humberto did. Right now is kind of saddening though, because as the convection wanes so does the chance of rain in TX.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
he might start refiring and get more organization if he gets out of that northerly shear
maybe the easterly/southeasterly shear he will be going into will be alot better for him, cuz the northerly is killing him
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Don, you coulda been somebody. You coulda been a contender!


Nice
Nice dark clouds forming up over Houston now.
east coast is save from any hurricane or tropical storm for the next two weeks or more!!
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Don, you coulda been somebody. You coulda been a contender!


LOL
Quoting oreodogsghost:
Nice dark clouds forming up over Houston now.


Yea i noticed too but sadly not getting any rain in our area well at least some are getting some rain showers.
12z ECMWF is picking up on a low pressure area traversing across the Atlantic with a good amount of vort, equal that of Don.
Link

And here's that wave, this could be mentioned as soon as 2 am.
Waiting for the next image of Floater One. Looks like Don is the little engine that could, he's just a chugging along, best he can.
Vort is decent with that wave too.
The cloudiness north of Don is consistently increasing, and may soon re-envelope the north side of the circulation. Additionally, that large burst of convection near the COC show Don has some staying power. Methinks he's not done yet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z ECMWF @ 168 hours - Tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico:



0z ECMWF @ 192 hours - Weakening due to interation with Hispaniola.



0z ECMWF @ 216 hours - Affecting the Bahamas as a strong system.



0z ECMWF @ 240 hours - Trough split off GA/SC coast, system affecting Bahamas now curving out to sea (I think?).

Well it shows a strong vorticity max associated with the tropical wave...not a tropical cyclone.

It could become a tropical cyclone, however, so we'll have to watch it. Right now dry air ahead of it, the broad disorganized nature, and only marginal upper level winds should prevent it from developing over the next few days. Like you said, though, we'll have to watch it after it passes the east Caribbean. Slight development just before entering the Caribbean is also possible, as the CMC is showing.
Mr. Masters give Don a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane i agree within that range but i give a 40% chance
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN (MUIFA)
11:00 PM PhST July 28 2011
==============================

Tropical Storm "KABAYAN" has intensified further as it moves west northwestward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Kabayan (Muifa) located at 12.4°N 133.6°E or 890 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

This weather disturbance is too far to directly affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
east coast is save from any hurricane or tropical storm for the next two weeks or more!!

not guranteed.. there should be a trough next week but how strong it is and if a storm forms will depend on timing
El Nino, or La Nina conditions?
633. jasonweatherman2011 2:33 PM EDT on July 28, 2011 +0
east coast is save from any hurricane or tropical storm for the next two weeks or more!!





Nice!

:)
AL 04 2011072818 BEST 0 245N 907W 40 1001 TS 34 NEQ 75 50 0 20 1011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 04 2011072818 BEST 0 245N 907W 40 1001 TS 34 NEQ 75 50 0 20 1011
is this new information? and has the pressure droped?
Air getting drier on TX coast

soon to be 91L has a a large cyclonic circulation, which is still feeding off the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. this will help the wave to moisten it's surroundings. convection is on the increase and we should soon see a yellow circle
Nobody should give up Don because so far, many people have given up on him, the NHC, TWC, and some wunderbloggers but he keeps fighting on and after reemerging multiple times you can't tell when he really is doomed
Quoting floridaboy14:
is this new information? and has the pressure droped?


Yes new, no change in pressure from 12Z
Quoting metwombly:
Waiting for the next image of Floater One. Looks like Don is the little engine that could, he's just a chugging along, best he can.
yup and he may still suprise as he has done on his long trip from africa many times
more t.storms with tropical wave
I suggest Matagorda Bay for anyone wishing to cover landfall on location.

Jim Cantore, I'm looking in your direction.
Quoting nola70119:
El Nino, or La Nina conditions?


Neutral, with a very slight warm bias




Models currently predict we will head back toward La Nina by the wintertime.
Quoting oreodogsghost:
Nice dark clouds forming up over Houston now.


I'm watching out my window at work in SugarLand. It is a beautiful sight to see the puffy white clouds with the darker grey ones looming just above them.
I'm downtown Houston and it is just barely starting to rain.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes new, no change in pressure from 12Z
it shows 1001mb that a drop from 1005
hydrus or jason...popped on for just a few...don't have long...could either of you post a map of what the high is doing over the US please...thanks in advance
Vorticity with CATL wave moved a little south, now at 7N - 38W which clearly seen in CyberTeddy's post #638
Hence I don't see this system moving north of the Islands and due to its broad nature it will remain weak for a quite a while yet hence move generally Westwards!
Quoting KittyTwister:


I'm watching out my window at work in SugarLand. It is a beautiful sight to see the puffy white clouds with the darker grey ones looming just above them.


Leaving home this morning there was a beautiful cloud well to the east, backlit. I never looked up the radar but it certainly resembled a CB. Too bad I wasn't in a position to get a picture of it.
DOOOOOM!!!!

It appears Houston is being affected by -- egads! -- rain!

Way to go, Houston! Sure hope you folks get a nice soaker from Don, or otherwise. Lord knows you deserve it.
Looks like north of the Don's circulation that convection is starting to flare up hopefully the start of his new intensification
NotC

Heck, I'm happy when people spit at me anymore.
It would seem that Don still has fight, based on trop floater one wv imagery, last two frames. Go Don Go!!! We really really need that rain!!!!
Hopefully Don whatever it comes ashore as will add some instability to the atmosphere and with the increase moisture gives us texans some well needed rain.
Wow, the Atlantic has become very warm in the past week. It is now warmer than this time last year.

July 27, 2010:



July 27, 2011:

Another system behind it on Aug-1..
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Looks like north of the Don's circulation that convection is starting to flare up hopefully the start of his new intensification
he may be going into a lower shear environment both from a velocity and directional standpoint
I heard on our houston radio news 740 KTRH that they think landfall maybe between Corpus Christi and Rockport, TX
Quoting TomTaylor:


Neutral, with a very slight warm bias




Models currently predict we will head back toward La Nina by the wintertime.


Thanks.
Quoting KittyTwister:


I'm watching out my window at work in SugarLand. It is a beautiful sight to see the puffy white clouds with the darker grey ones looming just above them.
Would like to see those up this way(DFW). Looking at the regional radar though, we ain't gonna get squat until Don finally gets here (keeping fingers and toes crossed).
666. GHOSTY1 1:46 PM CDT on July 28, 2011

Hehe...
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
he may be going into a lower shear environment both from a velocity and directional standpoint


I have a feeling thats what is happening and this will be what gets his act together for some development
Quoting GHOSTY1:
I heard on our houston radio news 740 KTRH that they think landfall maybe between Corpus Christi and Rockport, TX


That is where the thin black line goes if you connect the forecast points.
Quoting hydrus:
Another system behind it on Aug-1..


Well that's interesting.... Emily and Franklin maybe? It's starting to get to that time of year.
That landfall location between Rockport and CC would be good for Houston too because it would bring more moisture towards us and it would be good for central texas, and not to be hatin' on southern texas but some of yall got rain from ts arlene and we need some relief up here in houston.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
hydrus or jason...popped on for just a few...don't have long...could either of you post a map of what the high is doing over the US please...thanks in advance


As of 12Z




Looks like he wants to pull something in from the north.
I've been looking at wind shear forecasts and have a question. I understand the concept of wind shear, but can someone explain to me what is shown on a "wind shear forecast" map versus what is shown on a "zonal wind shear forecast" map.

Thanks.
I still think Don will be Cat.1 by landfall or slight chance of Cat.2, and if i am wrong i would eat a crow but i think all the crows in texas have died of dehydration
according to University officials, the claim that the center of the storm will pass almost directly over our campus on Ward Island....i wonder if Impact Weather is pulling their leg.
Quoting hydrus:
Another system behind it on Aug-1..
in the next two 40%?
Don firing deep convection once again, and according to ATCF, no change in pressure since 12Z (1001 mb.). Could this be the start of Don's intensification? Possibly, but it is a little too early to see yet. Multiple outflow boundaries are seen coming from the system, which means that the main problem that Don is having is dry air.


looks like some good news for don it certainly wont become a hurricane BUT its moving into a lower shear environment and its trying to pull some moisture from the north to cover up its center which is lacking convection to the north
692. BA
it's easy for ppl that don't live on the coast (that is to be impacted) to wish for storms to fire up, etc etc...

for those that live in the affected area, even a small tropical storm disrupts all sorts of businesses and organizations (people)...they are not a very friendly way to get rain

I, for one, hope Don doesn't strengthen at all...they are already evacuating Texas A&M campus...so kids with no place to go have to take a bus all the way to Laredo
Quoting caneswatch:


Well that's interesting.... Emily and Franklin maybe? It's starting to get to that time of year.
if Don gets organized better , he may go further south and likewise if he weakens,he go further north, i thought corpus was a good landfall site, where does corpus lie in your lines?

Quoting farhaonhebrew:
in the next two 40%?
percents again.
Quoting angiest:


Leaving home this morning there was a beautiful cloud well to the east, backlit. I never looked up the radar but it certainly resembled a CB. Too bad I wasn't in a position to get a picture of it.


Awwww, I missed that. I am anticipating some great cloud shows in the next few days.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
hydrus or jason...popped on for just a few...don't have long...could either of you post a map of what the high is doing over the US please...thanks in advance
This is 24 hours out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don firing deep convection once again, and according to ATCF, no change in pressure since 12Z (1001 mb.). Could this be the start of Don's intensification? Possibly, but it is a little too early to see yet. Multiple outflow boundaries are seen coming from the system, which means that the main problem that Don is having is dry air.



you are certainly correct. dry air will be its problem until landfall shear however will become MUCH weaker for it tomorrow. has the potential to be a moderate/ strong ts 50-65mph not a hurricane but still a nice ts
Quoting BA:
it's easy for ppl that don't live on the coast (that is to be impacted) to wish for storms to fire up, etc etc...

for those that live in the affected area, even a small tropical storm disrupts all sorts of businesses and organizations (people)...they are not a very friendly way to get rain

I, for one, hope Don doesn't strengthen at all...they are already evacuating Texas A&M campus...so kids with no place to go have to take a bus all the way to Laredo


Are you talking about the CC Texas A&M campus? because my cousin goes there and i haven't heard any thing about evacuations.

Quoting GHOSTY1:
I heard on our houston radio news 740 KTRH that they think landfall maybe between Corpus Christi and Rockport, TX
Evacuate now.
Quoting angiest:


Looks like he wants to pull something in from the north.
thats what we want
Has anyone mentioned Matagorda, TX (or so) as probable landfall location?

If not, they should.
Looking at visible images, (rapid scan rocks) TS Don is moving into an area of much relaxed shear compared to the east. A round of intensification is looking likely in the next 6 hours, next HH should find a 55-65mph TS.
704. BA
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Are you talking about the CC Texas A&M campus? because my cousin goes there and i haven't heard any thing about evacuations.


yes, tamucc, they announced it on the local news
Quoting JamesGalloway:
I've been looking at wind shear forecasts and have a question. I understand the concept of wind shear, but can someone explain to me what is shown on a "wind shear forecast" map versus what is shown on a "zonal wind shear forecast" map.

Thanks.


Zonal normally refers to east-west. Explained Link

Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, the Atlantic has become very warm in the past week. It is now warmer than this time last year.

July 27, 2010:



July 27, 2011:

Fish like's warm waters
No doubt Don has reversed course. Convergence/Divergence more aligned with the cyclone and in response Don is pulling back in the convection to the S. Not to mention what's now going on in the N Semi.


Quoting BA:


yes, tamucc, they announced it on the local news


Thats news to me, thanks for letting me know, doesnt that sound like they are thinking it may be stronger than a tropical storm or are they just being precautious?
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Has anyone mentioned Matagorda, TX (or so) as probable landfall location?

If not, they should.


Lol your landfall prediction is well documented.
Whats left of the CDO is still being Shunted Sw by the Neast sheer,,as the CoC moves off to the Nwest.


Quoting NotCircumventing:
Has anyone mentioned Matagorda, TX (or so) as probable landfall location?

If not, they should.


Over 24 hours ago.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Has anyone mentioned Matagorda, TX (or so) as probable landfall location?

If not, they should.


I believe you have mentioned Matagorda about 3000 times already. Give it a rest.
715. HCW
Latest NHC model runs for Don. Have a great day :)


Quoting prcane4you:

Evacuate now.


LOL, i live in NW Houston and the only thought of evacuation before was Ike and Rita, Rita made Houston go into a complete frenzy US 290 was stalled out because so much traffic and Ike just made a gigantic mess with trees and power lines here
Not for long IMO, Patrap.
719. BA
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Thats news to me, thanks for letting me know, doesnt that sound like they are thinking it may be stronger than a tropical storm or are they just being precautious?


It may be procedure anytime a tropical storm warning or higher is issued...I'm not sure what their policy is.

Sucks really bad for students that don't have a place to stay though.
Quoting Patrap:
Whats left of the CDO is still being Shunted Sw by the Neast sheer,,as the CoC moves off to the Nwest.




Don has turned around over the past hour or so. As ProgressivePulse said, convergence and divergence are becoming more aligned. Not only that, but deep convection is starting to fire on the northern half of the system.

Whatever you said isn't going to last much longer.
Quoting HCW:
Latest NHC model runs for Don. Have a great day :)




Windshield wipers.
Quoting oreodogsghost:
NotC

Heck, I'm happy when people spit at me anymore.


HaHa...that was funny.

It's raining here too...had to walk the dog with an umbrella over her.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the CLIP suite looks most believable at this time:

Quoting NotCircumventing:
DOOOOOM!!!!

It appears Houston is being affected by -- egads! -- rain!

Way to go, Houston! Sure hope you folks get a nice soaker from Don, or otherwise. Lord knows you deserve it.
There is a weak disturbance in La. that will give Houston and southeast Texas some rain not associated with Don at all
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Don
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





726. DFWjc
Quoting prcane4you:

Evacuate now.


For a TS?
I have been lurking for 2 years. We now have a storm headed my direction. I am located in the coastal bend of Texas in Victoria about 30 miles inland. We are definetely looking forward to some rain. We don't want a lot of the wind though. It appears our area will be in the northern quadrant, where the majority if rainfall is usually expected. I appreciate the great info from some of you over the past couple of years. Levi love your tidbits.
NotCircumventing, i believe that is a good option but i think Rockport is the target so far it looks like, but im no meteorologist and u been bloggin for a couple years so u probly know more about educated guessing
Best case scenario: Don grows in size and develops more deep convection. Moves into Texas as a strong TS/weak hurricane (they can take it), and gives a lot of the southern part of the state very beneficial rainfall. Then, it is picked up by a trough and sent back into the Gulf similar to TD #5 of last year, and moves west. It re-strengthens and becomes a big rain-maker and brings more rain to Texas.

Very Very unlikely though :(
91W, 21.5N ... or so.

Tracking toward some place in Texas that starts with an M.

And ends with an atagorda.

High pressure not strong enough to ecourage a bend wnw to get Don down to South TX coast. Central coast on up to Galveston is higher threat, with bias toward East Matagorda Bay (or so).
Come on Don!
733. HCW
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Windshield wipers.


I don't use Wipers cause I have a life time supply of aquapel . It's like Rain X on roids
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Come on Don!
Jeez..Where ya been?
735. DFWjc
Quoting HCW:


I don't use Wipers cause I have a life time supply of aquapel . It's like Rain X on roids


Is it really worth the money??
Quoting thirdcoastguy:
I have been lurking for 2 years. We now have a storm headed my direction. I am located in the coastal bend of Texas in Victoria about 30 miles inland. We are definetely looking forward to some rain. We don't want a lot of the wind though. It appears our area will be in the northern quadrant, where the majority if rainfall is usually expected. I appreciate the great info from some of you over the past couple of years. Levi love your tidbits.


You may be in the good area because most meteorologist predict rockport landfall and victoria isnt too far away so you may get some good rainfall totals i just hope we can get some here in houston too, Good luck!
Please bring some rain to Corpus
Reason I say that Patrap is that the convection occurring in the N semi doesn't have the shear streamers that the clouds to the east of them have. And why convection is now there to begin with.

714,

sorry if I may have angered you with my on-topic post of where Don will threaten with landfall.

Is it possible to Google Map directions to the Ignore button? Distance from here is about .33 inches.
72 hours..
Quoting thirdcoastguy:
I have been lurking for 2 years. We now have a storm headed my direction. I am located in the coastal bend of Texas in Victoria about 30 miles inland. We are definetely looking forward to some rain. We don't want a lot of the wind though. It appears our area will be in the northern quadrant, where the majority if rainfall is usually expected. I appreciate the great info from some of you over the past couple of years. Levi love your tidbits.
Cool! A fellow Victorian!! Really looking forward to some rain.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Best case scenario: Don grows in size and develops more deep convection. Moves into Texas as a strong TS/weak hurricane (they can take it), and gives a lot of the southern part of the state very beneficial rainfall. Then, it is picked up by a trough and sent back into the Gulf similar to TD #5 of last year, and moves west. It re-strengthens and becomes a big rain-maker and brings more rain to Texas.

Very Very unlikely though :(


your asking for the 2001 TS Allison scenario that one was a doozie for us in Houston
Quoting GHOSTY1:
NotCircumventing, i believe that is a good option but i think Rockport is the target so far it looks like, but im no meteorologist and u been bloggin for a couple years so u probly know more about educated guessing

I hope so. Rockport works for me-lots of our wildlife are dying. Fire Dept. came and hosed down the "Big" Tree at Goose Island to save it from death.
Sorry to deviate off Don, but the ECMWF is once again showing a tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and Bahamas, but recurves it out to sea (good thing, because if not, it could get real strong. Could do that anyway).

Yes, it should be a TC, since its closed.

Quoting GHOSTY1:


Thats news to me, thanks for letting me know, doesnt that sound like they are thinking it may be stronger than a tropical storm or are they just being precautious?


It is a percaution. Here is the TAMUCC release to staff http://www.tamucc.edu/marcom/hurricane/assets/wea ther_update_7-28.pdf
Someone shoot some fertilizer into Don and help him grow. Weather Channel showed quarter of an inch rain projections for South Central Texas, now that is disappointing.
SST Anomalies over the last 3 weeks



Seems like the entire Atlantic has heated anomalously. By the end of the loop, the Gulf, Caribbean, MDR, and Gulf of Guinea all appear to have warmed some. All of which will favor increased activity, except for the Gulf of Guinea warming. Although the Gulf of Guinea is still anomalously cold.
Quoting GHOSTY1:


You may be in the good area because most meteorologist predict rockport landfall and victoria isnt too far away so you may get some good rainfall totals i just hope we can get some here in houston too, Good luck!


We all need the rain. It is worse here than Houston area. Ya'll have got a little rain lately.
Don does not look like a big rain maker at this time..
USA700, chill out he just making his opinion and like he said there's a ignore button, but as far as i know he has made some pretty good ideas and opinions. Not trying to be rude just my take on the situation.
Quoting cctxshirl:

I hope so. Rockport works for me-lots of our wildlife are dying. Fire Dept. came and hosed down the "Big" Tree at Goose Island to save it from death.


When did they do that? It didn't look too bad off last month.
Quoting thirdcoastguy:


We all need the rain. It is worse here than Houston area. Ya'll have got a little rain lately.


On the east side. Those of us out west of Houston are still bone dry.
Quoting hydrus:
72 hours..


Waves are sure getting tall, going to get busy soon.
754. HCW
Quoting DFWjc:


Is it really worth the money??


It's great when you are driving over 60mph cause you don't need wipers at all but at lower speeds it's not very impressive. I use it all the time while chasing cause wipers mess up the quality of my live stream. If you have any other questions feel free to shoot me an email. Now back to Tropical Storm Don
Looks like all the models have finally converged on a South Texas landfall. The only question is whether Don has enough punch to make its way far enough inland to dump any significant rain on Central Texas. Austin has scattered showers forecast for Saturday.
Sorry to deviate off Don, but the ECMWF is once again showing a tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and Bahamas, but recurves it out to sea (good thing, because if not, it could get real strong. Could do that anyway).

to far out from now!!
Quoting floridaboy14:

you are certainly correct. dry air will be its problem until landfall shear however will become MUCH weaker for it tomorrow. has the potential to be a moderate/ strong ts 50-65mph not a hurricane but still a nice ts


I don't think dry air will be as much of a problem as you think. There is a lot of moisture in the Northern and Northeastern Gulf that is moving West and will meat up with Don as it approaches Texas. We've had 3 days of rain here in the FL Panhandle and all that moisture is now moving West around the High. I sure hope Don pulls it all in and sends it to Texas, they really need the rain.
Could be a pretty impressive storm tomorrow morning, comparatively speaking.
Quoting angiest:


On the east side. Those of us out west of Houston are still bone dry.


True that because i live in the NW houston area, Jersey Village, and the only rain we got was a few nights ago and it was mostly a awesome light show but did little good before that it has been monthes since we got a good amount of rain
Weather channel says close to coast where Don makes landfall 3 to 4 inches is possible, other areas will average around half an inch or so but overall this is not a rainmaker for Texas unfortunately unless he comes over your house basically.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
Sorry to deviate off Don, but the ECMWF is once again showing a tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and Bahamas, but recurves it out to sea (good thing, because if not, it could get real strong. Could do that anyway).

to far out from now!!


The models develop it less than a week away. Not too far out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sorry to deviate off Don, but the ECMWF is once again showing a tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and Bahamas, but recurves it out to sea (good thing, because if not, it could get real strong. Could do that anyway).

Yes, it should be a TC, since its closed.


not good news i need some rain here on the south east coast :) ill take a cat1
question...along the gulf coast, what strength storm will prompt an evacuation? Does it depend on the area? Like some areas a TS would force one, whereas others a Cat 1 would?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, the Atlantic has become very warm in the past week. It is now warmer than this time last year.

July 27, 2010:



July 27, 2011:

nice point, that is very interesting to note that the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Main Development Region, and Mid Atlantic are all warmer than they were at this time last year. Cape Verde region is maybe a little cooler, but still.

Here's a gif to compare the two years for the 27th of July

766. JRRP
i never look at computer models that are more then 5 days out its a wait of time!! there are never right more then 5 days!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The models develop it less than a week away. Not too far out.



I think he's talking about the re-curvature point which is too far out.
Let's not forget these are "early cycle" models, which are not always the best guidance.

Late cycle is a bit better typically.

Pat can explain better, I believe.
Quoting TomTaylor:
SST Anomalies over the last 3 weeks



Seems like the entire Atlantic has heated anomalously. By the end of the loop, the Gulf, Caribbean, MDR, and Gulf of Guinea all appear to have warmed some. All of which will favor increased activity, except for the Gulf of Guinea warming. Although the Gulf of Guinea is still anomalously cold.


The GOG cooled again on the last frame. I'm not liking how the SST anomalies are going up. I posted a comparison of the SSTs from 7/27/2010 and 7/27/2011 on the last page and the temps were actually warmer this year than last.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
if Don gets organized better , he may go further south and likewise if he weakens,he go further north, i thought corpus was a good landfall site, where does corpus lie in your lines?


I can't see Don strengthening much anymore, so Corpus Christi will probably get what's the "worst" part of Don.
772. JRRP



Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i never look at computer models that are more then 5 days out its a wait of time!! there are never right more then 5 days!!


Fair point.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
714,

sorry if I may have angered you with my on-topic post of where Don will threaten with landfall.

Is it possible to Google Map directions to the Ignore button? Distance from here is about 2 inches.


Not angry at all. Are you sure the ignore button is not in Matagorda bay?
Southeast Texas does not need Don they have Easterly wave affecting them today and Friday giving them more rain than Don will give Texas most likely. AVIATION...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROF OR EASTERLY WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE TERMINALS ARE ON
THE EASTERN OR WET SIDE OF THIS TROF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
764,

Your county should have a Plan, with various areas assigned Levels or something to aid in when to evacuate.

These levels will corresponf roughly with storm strength, so emergency managers can respond without having to evacuate everyone when it is not needed, which makes matters worse.
Quoting smartinwx:
question...along the gulf coast, what strength storm will prompt an evacuation? Does it depend on the area? Like some areas a TS would force one, whereas others a Cat 1 would?


It's a city discretion thing, i live in NW houston so i dont usually worry about EVAC but when we need information our city (Jersey Village) has boxes on the stop signs at major intersections around the neighborhood that detail the situation and when and what to do for the worst. Hope that helped and someone who lives around galveston or corpus could probably answer better.
Anyone know where I can download the KMZ or KML file for live feed to install in Google Earth? I need one that includes the cone of uncertainty. Thanks.
It looks like Don is pulling in moisture from the north and getting more organized. What is the reason for the forecast of it to curve more westerly? Looks like it's maintaining it's Northwest course pretty well. Don seems to be doing much better than last night though.

Sorry, another question- Does Dmax and Dmin affect sorm rainfall during land, or does it just correspond with cloud height?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Waves are sure getting tall, going to get busy soon.
Plenty of fuel for tropical waves...Get rid of the dry air, add some upward phase, and the above average forecast numbers will come to fruition...
The models will move with these large fluctuations in strength. The TCVN is still relatively close to the current NHC track, I don't think they will move it much unless that moves as well.


782. P451
Afternoon everyone. Don continues his struggles and it does not appear likely he will shake them to any large degree.

1845Z imagery loops.


RGB:




RAINBOW:




The newest burst of convection close to the center but on the south side and likely to also be displaced south of the center. There is little to no chance the new burst will either wrap around or somehow stack itself over the surface circulation. Therefore the intensity of Don will remain at least constant - weak TS.

I wouldn't put much into the smaller isolated flareups far north east of the center. That has more to do with the unsettled weather to Don's NE than Don itself. What it does serve is a chance to observe the continued shear coming in from the N/NE. You can see them immediately torn apart and thrown southward.





Invest 91L "Coming Soon"
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i never look at computer models that are more then 5 days out its a wait of time!! there are never right more then 5 days!!


The models develop it in that time frame (around 144 hours).

Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I think he's talking about the re-curvature point which is too far out.


Oh.
Quoting GHOSTY1:


True that because i live in the NW houston area, Jersey Village, and the only rain we got was a few nights ago and it was mostly a awesome light show but did little good before that it has been monthes since we got a good amount of rain


The storm Monday night? It *died* right before it got to my house.
Quoting hydrus:
Plenty of fuel for tropical waves...Get rid of the dry air, add some upward phase, and the above average forecast numbers will come to fruition...



I think the dry air is an attribute we'll have to deal with this year in the E-Atl and not to uncharacteristic of a Neutral ENSO year. MJO is coming around the mountain so to speak, should be here in the next week or two.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don firing deep convection once again, and according to ATCF, no change in pressure since 12Z (1001 mb.). Could this be the start of Don's intensification? Possibly, but it is a little too early to see yet. Multiple outflow boundaries are seen coming from the system, which means that the main problem that Don is having is dry air.


Yeah, that's what I see too. There's a lot of air falling out the bottom of this thing. Never a positive indicator for intensification, and if you watch the precip. runs towards the end, you can actually see the system sucking in that dry air. Watch the light green disappear, as if it was literally being eaten by Don. There's not much left though. It may wall itself off by this evening.

774,

If you are going to mock, at least get your head in the game, man!

Its EAST Matagorda Bay, more specifically.

(although in your defense I may have left the "east" off of some posts)
1010mb low with catl wave 7N 36W moving west or north of west. the system should be in the vicinity of the windward/leeward islands mon afternoon. what is frightening, most of the models develop this system into a cyclone
Quoting MississippiWx:


The GOG cooled again on the last frame. I'm not liking how the SST anomalies are going up. I posted a comparison of the SSTs from 7/27/2010 and 7/27/2011 on the last page and the temps were actually warmer this year than last.


I've still not figured out why this season is expected to be less active than last.

Do you know? From the answers I've heard, slightly cooler Sea Surface temperatures. But...that has been proven wrong, by you.

Quoting Waltanater:
Anyone know where I can download the KMZ or KML file for live feed to install in Google Earth? I need one that includes the cone of uncertainty. Thanks.


Link
Don will strengthen right before landfall.
Quoting P451:
Afternoon everyone. Don continues his struggles and it does not appear likely he will shake them to any large degree.

1845Z imagery loops.


RGB:




RAINBOW:




The newest burst of convection close to the center but on the south side and likely to also be displaced south of the center. There is little to no chance the new burst will either wrap around or somehow stack itself over the surface circulation. Therefore the intensity of Don will remain at least constant - weak TS.

I wouldn't put much into the smaller isolated flareups far north east of the center. That has more to do with the unsettled weather to Don's NE than Don itself. What it does serve is a chance to observe the continued shear coming in from the N/NE. You can see them immediately torn apart and thrown southward.







I gotta disagree the mets are saying that conditions are gonna become more favorable which they maybe already starting to do so i believe Don may be beginning to drag in some moisture for some extra convection
Quoting GHOSTY1:


your asking for the 2001 TS Allison scenario that one was a doozie for us in Houston


Yeah, Allison was the weather equivalent of a kick to the groin...It came in swiftly, and just when you thought the pain would stop, it just kept going and going and going...fortunately, I was living in an upstairs apartment at the time
The increase in forward speed has allowed Don to finally get out of the strongest sheer in the last 6 hours. Now the dry air is still an issue, but not a killer. We should see some steady strengthening. Link below to the shear tendency map shows Don getting slightly ahead of the shear.
Link
Looks like Don is finally starting to get its act together! The past hour or so has shown a rapid increase in towers building on the north side of the storm, with a big blowup on the sw side as well. Starting to affect the convection levels all along the coast from Houston/Galveston area over to Florida panhandle. I think Don is working along with the disturbance on the coast to create more convergence.
Whatever he does I DONT CARE- just so he dumps lots of water on TEXAS! He can just sit and dump water on us for a week for all I care....Looks like center is moving NW towards upper middle coast between Port Lavaca and Freeport??
Quoting vortextrance:
The increase in forward speed has allowed Don to finally get out of the strongest sheer in the last 6 hours. Now the dry air is still an issue, but not a killer. We should see some steady strengthening. Link below to the shear tendency map shows Don getting slightly ahead of the shear.
Link


Agreed.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Reason I say that Patrap is that the convection occurring in the N semi doesn't have the shear streamers that the clouds to the east of them have. And why convection is now there to begin with.

think the shear is changing from north to east/southeast
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i never look at computer models that are more then 5 days out its a wait of time!! there are never right more then 5 days!!




Jason, just a few posts back you were saying that it was going to be a fish storm. I like some of the things you post but if you make a prediction stick with it!
Quoting P451:
Afternoon everyone. Don continues his struggles and it does not appear likely he will shake them to any large degree.

1845Z imagery loops.


RGB:




RAINBOW:




The newest burst of convection close to the center but on the south side and likely to also be displaced south of the center. There is little to no chance the new burst will either wrap around or somehow stack itself over the surface circulation. Therefore the intensity of Don will remain at least constant - weak TS.

I wouldn't put much into the smaller isolated flareups far north east of the center. That has more to do with the unsettled weather to Don's NE than Don itself. What it does serve is a chance to observe the continued shear coming in from the N/NE. You can see them immediately torn apart and thrown southward.







thanks for taking the time to make those loops, I know they can be a bit of a pain
Quoting NotCircumventing:
714,

sorry if I may have angered you with my on-topic post of where Don will threaten with landfall.

Is it possible to Google Map directions to the Ignore button? Distance from here is about .33 inches.


I'm thinking...(atagorda-May ay-Bay)
just because the models show that wave recurving doesnt mean it will... once the wave gets closer to the islands we will find out
Quoting angiest:


The storm Monday night? It *died* right before it got to my house.


That was the evening, your right, it was a little heavy but short, wish my video camera could have worked because it was a great light show
804. P451
Steering on the other hand has changed. Seems more and more that regardless of intensity that the center texas coastline is the place Don will want to be.



Of note is how weak and open it is around the Texas coastline in the lower and mid levels.

I wonder if the track could end up slow and erratic towards the end there.

Quoting MississippiWx:


The GOG cooled again on the last frame. I'm not liking how the SST anomalies are going up. I posted a comparison of the SSTs from 7/27/2010 and 7/27/2011 on the last page and the temps were actually warmer this year than last.
Yeah I saw that post, and you bring up a good point.

Here's a gif I made to make it easier to compare this year to last year

Quoting GHOSTY1:


US 290 was stalled out


That is different than normal... how?
807. BA
some hi-res sat. should allow you to see Don leaving harsh conditions and entering into more favorable conditions

http://srf.to/gomsat1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've still not figured out why this season is expected to be less active than last.

Do you know? From the answers I've heard, slightly cooler Sea Surface temperatures. But...that has been proven wrong, by you.



Well, the anomalies were cooler for most of the "preseason" and throughout June. However, we have seen a change in July where the SSTs have had a significant spike overall. These SSTs that we are seeing now were not predicted and if they continue, it will mean serious business in the meat of the season.

You can attribute the warming of the temps to light trade winds and a neutral to negative NAO. We have also had very little in the way of large dust outbreaks this year.
Cloud tops getting gnarly in the WPAC

DON will be gone by sat/sun, but EMILY looms on the horizon and could be a big player next week.
something back of maybe invest 91L!!
Quoting MagicSpork:


Yeah, Allison was the weather equivalent of a kick to the groin...It came in swiftly, and just when you thought the pain would stop, it just kept going and going and going...fortunately, I was living in an upstairs apartment at the time


She was a nasty storm, the only time my area of the neighborhood had water ever reach past the sidewalk that is the only time me and my dad ever worried about flooding but so far it never has happened again. Or will Don do it? Dun Dun DUNNNNN!
Looks like a RGV track (The GFDL sure changed):
Quoting usa777:


Not angry at all. Are you sure the ignore button is not in Matagorda bay?


801,

Only after the Greek alphabet is exhausted do we proceed to using Pig Latin to discuss landfall locations.

I think that is 3002 now if you count all different variations.
To describe current weather conditions here in NOLA I would need a cow and a flat rock...

Quoting P451:
Steering on the other hand has changed. Seems more and more that regardless of intensity that the center texas coastline is the place Don will want to be.



Of note is how weak and open it is around the Texas coastline in the lower and mid levels.

I wonder if the track could end up slow and erratic towards the end there.



As some of us have been saying. ;)
blog freeze up? im hitting F5 and no new posts....
The conditions for Don WILL become more favorable. Its heading into LOW wind shear and a moisture enviroment. Don WILL be a cat 1 when he hits Rock Port Texas. You heard it hear first folks.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link
Thanks for the link. Will this update as time goes on or is this just the cone for this particular advisory? I need one that will update automatically. Does anyone know if this will do that or if there is another KML file I need? Thanks.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
801,

Only after the Greek alphabet is exhausted do we proceed to using Pig Latin to discuss landfall locations.

I think that is 3002 now if you count all different variations.


I miss DestinJeff.
Don is out of the shear, it shouldn't be a problem, or at least, not much of a problem, from here on out. The major problem it has to deal with is dry air. And with it being such a small system, it is very susceptible to entrain it.
823. j2008
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, the anomalies were cooler for most of the "preseason" and throughout June. However, we have seen a change in July where the SSTs have had a significant spike overall. These SSTs that we are seeing now were not predicted and if they continue, it will mean serious business in the meat of the season.

You can attribute the warming of the temps to light trade winds and a neutral to negative NAO. We have also had very little in the way of large dust outbreaks this year.

That plus the bermuda high being stronger thn normal doesnt stack up well for anybody in the Atantic.
Impressive Bowing Gust Front, west of the Slidell Radar

Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:


SAL AND FRESH TRADES DOMINATING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF DEVELOPMENT...IN GENERAL OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...STRONG NELY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 9 TO 10 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THIS WAVE. GFS IS FASTER BY 5 DEGREES OR SO WITH THIS WAVE...WITH UKMET JUST BEHIND...AND ECMWF SLOWEST.


Don't shoot the messenger

Quoting TomTaylor:
Cloud tops getting gnarly in the WPAC



Seems like the Western Pacific wants to make up for lost time. They are having one tropical cyclone after another.
Quoting jeffs713:


That is different than normal... how?


haha, yes i know 290 is usually a mess and it moves at a snails pace but that day it was completely stalled from 610 (furthest i saw it stalled to the east) all the way out to brenham where it picked up a little
Quoting NotCircumventing:
764,

Your county should have a Plan, with various areas assigned Levels or something to aid in when to evacuate.

These levels will corresponf roughly with storm strength, so emergency managers can respond without having to evacuate everyone when it is not needed, which makes matters worse.


Most Emergency Management Agencies in coastal areas plan for one cat. up from what is forcast. For example: Don is forcast to be a TS when it makes L/F, so EMA's are setting plans in motion for a cat. 1 storm. This gives room for growth of the system and allows EMS's to have enough resources in place to respond after the storm w/o having to evac too many people or worry too much about any pre-storm prep that should have been done. This also cuts down on any search and rescue that may be needed.

When it comes to hurricane/TS response, It's better to have too many resources available and have to send some home.
who think don will be a hurricane!! i think its will be a tropical storm all the way!!
Just wondering and I'm just working off a blackberry but what does the 500 mb indicate what might happen
Quoting Waltanater:
Thanks for the link. Will this update as time goes on or is this just the cone for this particular advisory? I need one that will update automatically. Does anyone know if this will do that or if there is another KML file I need? Thanks.


Only specific storm/advisory. Will not auto update.
Parole board meets in a little over 3 days.

Location: Matagorda Bay, TX.
Only after the Greek alphabet is exhausted do we proceed to using Pig Latin to discuss landfall locations.

oowa ooha!!!!!
Q: Will we surpass 2010 in terms of total tropical cyclone numbers?

A. Yes
B. Maybe
C. Probably
D. Unlikely
E. No
Quoting AniStarr:
Just wondering and I'm just working off a blackberry but what does the 500 mb indicate what might happen


Mexico
TS Don Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Zoom,Boxes and TFP's availible
Quoting scott39:
The conditions for Don WILL become more favorable. Its heading into LOW wind shear and a moisture enviroment. Don WILL be a cat 1 when he hits Rock Port Texas. You heard it hear first folks.
Now there is someone i agree with fully, Don is coming back baby!
New Blog!
No reliable computer models show significant tropical development in the near future and I have to agree with the computer models here for a few reasons that I have noted here.

1) Developing TUTT over the Central Atlantic into the Eastern Caribbean: This will pretty much create a "wall" of hostile upper level winds and will inhibit tropical waves coming across the Atlantic from developing.

2) Deep subsidence across the Main Development Region: The combination of Saharan air coming across the entire Atlantic as well as downward motion and reduced instability in the region will limit convection.

3) Only isolated pockets of favorable conditions across the entire Atlantic Basin: The only area that is somewhat favorable for development at this time are the SW Atlantic as the rest of the basin deals with either deep layered dry air and high pressures or hostile upper levels or both.
840. DFWjc
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
who think don will be a hurricane!! i think its will be a tropical storm all the way!!


Before the last night tear down, i had it at min Cat 1..
new blog...
Quoting MississippiWx:


I miss DestinJeff.


not me....with his off-topic posts and 4th grade humor....he makes a mockery of weather-guessing!
Quoting P451:
Afternoon everyone. Don continues his struggles and it does not appear likely he will shake them to any large degree.

1845Z imagery loops.


RGB:




RAINBOW:




The newest burst of convection close to the center but on the south side and likely to also be displaced south of the center. There is little to no chance the new burst will either wrap around or somehow stack itself over the surface circulation. Therefore the intensity of Don will remain at least constant - weak TS.

I wouldn't put much into the smaller isolated flareups far north east of the center. That has more to do with the unsettled weather to Don's NE than Don itself. What it does serve is a chance to observe the continued shear coming in from the N/NE. You can see them immediately torn apart and thrown southward.








++1000
I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall hearing that if the pacific was very active, it tended to show a less active atlantic season, and vice versa.

Is that the pacific as a whole, or just the eastern pacific?
Jasonweatherman2011, im sticking to my guns and im gonna say that Don will become a hurricane just wait and see!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
No reliable computer models show significant tropical development in the near future and I have to agree with the computer models here for a few reasons that I have noted here.

1) Developing TUTT over the Central Atlantic into the Eastern Caribbean: This will pretty much create a "wall" of hostile upper level winds and will inhibit tropical waves coming across the Atlantic from developing.

2) Deep subsidence across the Main Development Region: The combination of Saharan air coming across the entire Atlantic as well as downward motion and reduced instability in the region will limit convection.

3) Only isolated pockets of favorable conditions across the entire Atlantic Basin: The only area that is somewhat favorable for development at this time are the SW Atlantic as the rest of the basin deals with either deep layered dry air and high pressures or hostile upper levels or both.


thank you for the good news
847. j2008
Quoting tristanh72:
I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall hearing that if the pacific was very active, it tended to show a less active atlantic season, and vice versa.

Is that the pacific as a whole, or just the eastern pacific?

Just the EPAC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will we surpass 2010 in terms of total tropical cyclone numbers?

A. Yes
B. Maybe
C. Probably
D. Unlikely
E. No


Eh, we might tie it. If you'll remember back to last year, the conditions during August/September/October were nearly perfect for development, especially in the Eastern and Central Atlantic. A lot will depend on how many strong tropical waves we see emerging from Africa this year. Last year, we had a ton. This year has been lacking in the number/frequency of strong waves. The reason that we might tie last year's numbers is because of the 4 early storms we have had already. The MSLP forecast from the ECMWF for ASO looked remarkably similar to last season in the deep tropics, except a little more focused to the west with the negative anomalies. We'll see, but it's hard for the Atlantic to have back to back seasons of 19+ named systems.
i gotta say it, Don is "DON of the Dead" he never dies and wont die till' landfall of course.
850. xcool
new blogggggggggggg
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will we surpass 2010 in terms of total tropical cyclone numbers?

A. Yes
B. Maybe
C. Probably
D. Unlikely
E. No

haha dont forget that was a la nina year and conditions were nearly perfect just the tracks were bad because everything recurved lol well i see us getting anywehre from 15 to 18 storms so ill go with maybe
I think the tropical wave in the CATL wilk traverse the carib. If the wave can moisten it's environment and avoid land for the most part, then we may see our first hurricane, unless don have something in store.
Quoting BA:
some hi-res sat. should allow you to see Don leaving harsh conditions and entering into more favorable conditions

http://srf.to/gomsat1
those clouds south of Don seem to wanna get drawn up in the circ after they get off Yucatan and over BOC
854. P451
Quoting vortextrance:
The increase in forward speed has allowed Don to finally get out of the strongest sheer in the last 6 hours. Now the dry air is still an issue, but not a killer. We should see some steady strengthening. Link below to the shear tendency map shows Don getting slightly ahead of the shear.
Link


The maps are one thing but what you can see on imagery tells the story. Don is still under some pretty destructive shear. Main convection continues to be displaced to the south of the center and the earlier convective burst is being pushed well to the S of Don. A few isolated storms that popped up in a far outer NE band are getting torn apart and rapidly shoved southward.

Shear is strong over Don regardless of what the maps show. Just look at the clouds and look at Don's exposed surface circulation and you'll get a clearer picture as to what is going on out there right now.




Maybe it changes as he pushes further NW but right now he's getting his butt kicked.
Is the the thunderstorm activity to the NE of Don combining with him or is just flaring up with him and it looks as the new convection is heading in a generally NW direction because earlier it looked west
856. P451
Quoting TomTaylor:


thanks for taking the time to make those loops, I know they can be a bit of a pain


You're welcome and thanks.


Quoting GHOSTY1:


I gotta disagree the mets are saying that conditions are gonna become more favorable which they maybe already starting to do so i believe Don may be beginning to drag in some moisture for some extra convection


That's further down the road. We're not sure what to expect when Don approaches Texas. As it is the steering currents changed quite a bit more than expected so far today - so who knows what we can expect environment wise in 12 hours.

As of now it doesn't look like he is going to pull anything special out of his hat. If all goes perfect the 60mph landfall potential seems about right if he can get away from the current shear.

Right now he's getting beat on pretty good. I know the new burst of convection looks nice but it will likely follow suit with this morning's and get displaced southward.

The more thunderstorm activity that builds around will become like a protective barrier allowing for more strengthening so dont downplay his progress he's fighting the forces of DOOM
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Parole board meets in a little over 3 days.

Location: Matagorda Bay, TX.
They parole prisoners in Texas?
859. P451
Quoting TomTaylor:
Cloud tops getting gnarly in the WPAC



What's the black? -90C?

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
They parole prisoners in Texas?


Thats what we want you to think. Ooops... probably shouldn't have said that...
I made my first blog, FWIW.

Link
862. P451
Quoting angiest:


As some of us have been saying. ;)


lol.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
They parole prisoners in Texas?
Some of them ;-)
Anything Don does to continue his life is good if there was no new storms he will just totally be destroyed so he's trying and he'll eventually get his engines going.
whats up Nigel? what do you think will happen with Don?
04L/TD/D



When will the next forecasted path be given out by the NHC?
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Anything Don does to continue his life is good if there was no new storms he will just totally be destroyed so he's trying and he'll eventually get his engines going.
ya but out of 6 cycliners he is only firing 3 and they are missing as well
Thanks KaNa its normally not the brightest thing in the world to vary to much from the models but it may be all right to still fudge it to the south. And just wondering if NWS may use a path of least regret when predicting landfall position. In other words chose the most populated area just in case.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but out of 6 cycliners he is only firing 3 and they are missing as well


true but its better than just having nothing goin at all, its like when your trying to get your car started and it sputters a few times but then you get it going.
Don looks a lot like Bret, which says quite a bit about the environmental conditions around the system. They are and have been much more unfavorable than the NHC and many others believed.
i like you ghost you are all right
Quoting Levi32:
Don looks a lot like Bret, which says quite a bit about the environmental conditions around the system. They are and have been much more unfavorable than the NHC and many others believed.


but did Bret have favorable conditions forecasted? or did he have doom set in stone for his future becaue don doesn't
A
Quoting GHOSTY1:
whats up Nigel? what do you think will happen with Don?
I'm good, don is a fighter it's been fighting from it was an invest, so given the chance i think don will strengten
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i like you ghost you are all right


thank you, your alright too because your one of the few bloggers who can see different points of view other than be stubborn
HH wheels up outta tampa
Quoting Levi32:
Don looks a lot like Bret, which says quite a bit about the environmental conditions around the system. They are and have been much more unfavorable than the NHC and many others believed.
hostile is the word more than expected but thats a good thing don't want a monster in the gulf anyway
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
HH wheels up outta tampa


the HH are out again to survey Don? i hope they give a good report on Don for intensification.
whens the next modified projected path going to be shown and when are the blogs gonna start picking up, is it because alot of them are working?
its really looking like Don is starting to fire up his convection and hopefully get things goin' because he's got not to much time left but if he starts now he may be able to start something for himself
NHC will probably adjust the track very slightly southward, but I doubt it will be major since they don't want to get into a wind-shield wiper trend.
So if strengthens what direction do they predict it to head toward?
883. Daveg
Question... the models seem to be bouncing back and forth from more northward to more southward.

What would be causing them to do that, and it is likely that the NHC track will tend to stay more where it is unless the tracks stop that back and forth?
From the NOAA floater on Don the Low level center of circulation has quite a spin going i wouldn't be surprised to see the wind speeds have increased, just an observation
It seems to me that Don has been tracking more nnw, than wnw, given the exposed surface circulation and recent convection.
Quoting GHOSTY1:
So if strengthens what direction do they predict it to head toward?


A stronger storm would head more to the north while a weaker storm would sag towards the south. Either way its most likely going to hit Texas.
Ima gona go on a long shot here, i bet i wak up to a monster in the morning friday, just got that feeling.
Serious watch Mid Atl
While I am a regular here, and particularly during "down" time in the pre-season or during the season between storms (blob and model watcher), I tend to step-back a bit once we have an actual storm and let NHC take over and I watch how their forecasts pan out. So many folks on here always try to second guess NHC but generally speaking their forecasting is very good, as it should be as the Official source for information with the best computer resources and tropical forecasters in the world, when it counts the most which is with the general area of landfall (watches/warnings) and they are getting better with intensity forecasting vis-a-vis the models. Rapid intensification, or lack thereof in the current case of Don, is one of the trickiest areas to forecasts and one of the holy grails but it is hard for a human, or computers which they rely on, to nail down every exact detail because of shifting variables controlled by Mother Nature. My point is that while Don is in a very "dangerous" area in terms of hurricanes, I don't see any glaring errors that jump out to question the current NHC forecasts for Don based upon current conditions.
Quoting stoormfury:
DON will be gone by sat/sun, but EMILY looms on the horizon and could be a big player next week.


Where is Emily, I don't see it on the NHC site.
donnies about to blaze the comebackk trail,still dont think he'll be our firat cane, but a strong ts yes
Surface circulation is getting pulled back under the deep convection. Don is looking better and should gradually intensify tonight.
Don is lookin pretty good right now imo


LinkIRLoop

Unfortunately looks like it jogged WNW tho. Shear map info is down.

LinkWVLoop