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Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think with 53-54mph winds at flight level, I think Don is at 45mph winds now.
Dropsonde


Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 32 knots (37 mph)
995mb 160° (from the SSE) 50 knots (58 mph)
991mb 160° (from the SSE) 53 knots (61 mph)
953mb 170° (from the S) 51 knots (59 mph)
941mb 165° (from the SSE) 45 knots (52 mph)
882mb 160° (from the SSE) 49 knots (56 mph)
843mb 155° (from the SSE) 53 knots (61 mph)
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
HH just found several very high surface winds, including one at 73knots (83.9mph). They have of course been marked as suspect, but I doubt Don is still a 40mph storm. I'd expect to go up to perhaps 50mph at the next advisory.

The high winds could have been from an embedded severe thunderstorm. Either that or Don is whack.
Time: 12:01:00Z
Coordinates: 23.8167N 89.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,545 meters (~ 5,069 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.8 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 160° at 44 knots (From the SSE at ~ 50.6 mph)
Air Temp: 17.1°C (~ 62.8°F)
Dew Pt: 4.7°C (~ 40.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
I suppose compact storms are difficult to forecast. Nothing about this system screams that it is strengthening to me (but apparently it is).
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC still wants to develop that wave in the Atlantic...Even with all the dry air present..

bad thing is there is a trough trying to recurve it. i wish the CMC bought it into the SE coast because they are in some need of rain
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 23.7N 89.4W
Location: 436 miles (701 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 155° (from the SSE) 32 knots (37 mph)
1000mb 27m (89 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F) 155° (from the SSE) 38 knots (44 mph)
925mb 716m (2,349 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 165° (from the SSE) 47 knots (54 mph)
850mb 1,458m (4,783 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F) 155° (from the SSE) 52 knots (60 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 11:56Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 23.72N 89.41W
Splash Time: 11:59Z

Release Location: 23.7N 89.4W
Release Time: 11:56:58Z

Splash Location: 23.72N 89.41W
Splash Time: 11:58:58Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 50 knots (58 mph)
Fist Visible image of the day:

if DON be comes stronger then forcast a hurricane watch will be needed some time this PM for parts of TX
At 11:00 Don will be______
A.40 mph
B.45 mph
C.50 mph
D.55 mph
E.Higher
F.Lower
1513. P451
Quoting MrstormX:
I suppose compact storms are difficult to forecast. Nothing about this system screams that it is strengthening to me (but apparently it is).


It's what we can't see that the NHC is looking at thanks to observations. The inner core structure, winds at different levels. We can't see these things from satellite imagery which can be very misleading at times.

1514. WxLogic
Also check the TEMP/TD profile:

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1003mb (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F)
970mb 25.8°C (78.4°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F)
909mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 21.2°C (70.2°F)
887mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) Approximately 17°C (63°F)
861mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) Approximately 17°C (63°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
843mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F)

It is pretty dry above 850MB... once they get another drop out then it could further validate the extend of the dry air in the environment Don is in.
Quoting floridaboy14:

bad thing is there is a trough trying to recurve it. i wish the CMC bought it into the SE coast because they are in some need of rain


The SE certainly needs some rain, but be careful before wishing a long-track storm across the Atlantic towards the coast, could be more than a rain maker. A few models have suggested some development a few times, be interesting to see how it organises.
Quoting MrstormX:
Fist Visible image of the day:


You beat me to it!
Quoting P451:


It's what we can't see that the NHC is looking at thanks to observations. The inner core structure, winds at different levels. We can't see these things from satellite imagery which can be very misleading at times.



Yeah, plus it is out of radar range. It must be really tight in there.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
At 11:00 Don will be______
A.40 mph
B.45 mph
C.50 mph
D.55 mph
E.Higher
F.Lower


B.
it about to blow...they are finding 55mph winds... at 11am advisory it going to be 60mph..
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You beat me to it!


Sorry :P
1522. Jax82
Good Morning Don, don't drink too much coffee this morning, and try to take a nap this afernoon, save some rain for Texas, but hold the wind.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The SE certainly needs some rain, but be careful before wishing a long-track storm across the Atlantic towards the coast, could be more than a rain maker. A few models have suggested some development a few times, be interesting to see how it organises.

trust me a cat 1 out of it wouldnt be bad although its a week and more away the ecmwf and cmc try to recurve it but funny how when don was in that EXACT same spot instead of recurving how most of the models showed, it made its way into the gulf towards texas.. interesting :)
Just curious, why is the storm south of Don heading south and into the Yukatan?
Quoting superweatherman:
it about to blow...they are finding 55mph winds... at 11am advisory it going to be 60mph..


Maybe 50mph is my guess.
Quoting MrstormX:


Sorry :P

No problem.
Good Morning. Don does not look like much at the moment but that may change although it has not expanded it's moisture field since yesterday (it has actually shrunk a bit)and fighting the plume of dry air ahead of it. In the big picture scheme of things, we have another pending E-Pac system on the rise exiting the coast of South America and you can see most of the energy and convection in those longitudes more prevalent on the E-Pac side rather than in the vicinity of Don. Just curious to note that this has been a very interesting year with cyclogenisis issues in both basins at the same time on numerous ocassions.


Don Dawn
Quoting superweatherman:
it about to blow...they are finding 55mph winds... at 11am advisory it going to be 60mph..


Yeah, already a big pop of convection is occurring. It would seem the Yucatan is becoming less of a problem.
1530. hydrus
Quoting floridaboy14:

bad thing is there is a trough trying to recurve it. i wish the CMC bought it into the SE coast because they are in some need of rain
All the models have the Bermuda high weakening also. If that does not happen, the South Eastern U.S. could still be impacted. The GFS still takes this wave far south into the Caribbean..Here is 850 vort loop...Link
1531. 10Speed
... and the price of crude will be disproportionately up before the day is done.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, why is the storm south of Don heading south and into the Yukatan?


Levi explained this pretty well in his tidbit yesterday. Basically the high pressure is pushing convection towards the west, but there's a weakness which is pulling the surface low in Don slightly north, so Don is getting a mix of those and drifting northwest, while the convection behind Don is moving west.
today will be a fun day for DON
4 hurricanes in the E-PAC. None here.
4 TS in the Atlantic. No storms peaking at TS in the E-PAC
First pressure reading at the centre from the HH is 1002mb, suggesting Don has weakened somewhat.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


B.


C
1537. P451
10HR WV Imagery ending 1115z

Quoting NICycloneChaser:
First pressure reading at the centre from the HH is 1002mb, suggesting Don has weakened somewhat.




DON is not weaking by any means they be doing other pass
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Levi explained this pretty well in his tidbit yesterday. Basically the high pressure is pushing convection towards the west, but there's a weakness which is pulling the surface low in Don slightly north, so Don is getting a mix of those and drifting northwest, while the convection behind Don is moving west.


Thank you. I did watch Levi's tidbits, but no coffee for me this morning as I drive up to Arkansas. No coffee means my brain is working too hard to wake up to be able to work right. At least the Yukatan will only get a good storm and not a ts or worse. Hope it's not enough to cause more floods or slides for them.
Windspeeds are probably higher due to that thunderstorm blowup.
Quoting Tazmanian:




DON is not weaking by any means they be doing other pass


He's not weakening now, looks like he's getting his act together, but I'd say he did weaken a little overnight. I'd expect them to find maybe 1001/1000mb at the next pass.
Don has definitely weakened since last evening. Not suggesting the NHC will downgrade him to 35mph (and they most likely will not), but it's clear he is struggling, and continues to struggle this morning.

I am still thinking a Mexican landfall. I really feel Houston should be out of the woods now. However, Corpus Christi is still within striking distance, but looking less likely the storm will pass north of Corpus Christi in my opinion.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dubuque, Iowa, has received around 3.0" of rain since midnight, atop the nearly 7.5" it received yesterday. There's a whole lot of flooding going on there right now. The radar-based storm total precipitation estimate is very telling.
The flooded areas cannot catch a break and the drought areas cannot get one either. The size of Don is almost if he does not come right over you in Texas you most likely will not get much rain. That is why our chances are 20 percent here.
Nice little anticyclone forming over the TWave in Catl. This should help it break out of monsoon trough.

LinkShearMap

LinkWVLoop
1545. hydrus
CMC in 144 hours..
1546. P451
Consistent winds 40kts+ at their flight level.





Here's one barb: most of the barbs are contaminated/suspect at surface. This one wasn't flagged.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


He's not weakening now, looks like he's getting his act together, but I'd say he did weaken a little overnight. I'd expect them to find maybe 1001/1000mb at the next pass.


I'd agree with that, he obviously had overnight troubles.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


He's not weakening now, looks like he's getting his act together, but I'd say he did weaken a little overnight. I'd expect them to find maybe 1001/1000mb at the next pass.

I'm guessing you meant that its pressures are slightly higher, not that his winds are lower. We'll see what the next pass shows.
Hi Everyone,

Been lurking the past few days just no time to post.. will continue to check in and out as I can to see what is happenening.

Good Luck to Texas, hope they get the rain they really need.

Be good!

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The flooded areas cannot catch a break and the drought areas cannot get one either. The size of Don is almost if he does not come right over you in Texas you most likely will not get much rain. That is why our chances are 20 percent here.

Don is very small is size, but let's not forget the sheer size of the drought suffering regions in TX. It is enormous.

It would have to take 2 or 3 Don's three times the size to really alleviate things down there.
1551. WxLogic
Quoting MrstormX:
Windspeeds are probably higher due to that thunderstorm blowup.


Correct... if you mix dry air with a TSTM(s) you get high WND speeds.

You can also see that Don is not uniform in its WND field from what I would expect to be a TS. Currently its W periphery severely lacks of any decent WND speed readings.
1552. Jax82
T-storms starting to build over the center again.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
4 hurricanes in the E-PAC. None here.
4 TS in the Atlantic. No storms peaking at TS in the E-PAC


bust season?
Convection is expanding over Don's LLC. Wind shear is slowly weakening now. This is in evident by the more circular formation of the convection.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm guessing you meant that its pressures are slightly higher, not that his winds are lower. We'll see what the next pass shows.


Hard to know with the winds, though HH have found some surface winds of around 45mph which weren't flagged, so I don't think he's weakened considerably.
Look at the recent blowup of convection around the center. don is starting to get away from the yucatan and streghnthen
1557. P451
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°40'N 89°29'W (23.6667N 89.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 438 miles (704 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,437m (4,715ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 19kts (From the N at ~ 21.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) in the west quadrant at 11:54:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (234°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR
At least from Levi's tidbits I know even if Don were to pull a Rita, he will not develop into something bigger if he goes north, so I am off to a fun weekend. I'll try to jump in and lurk from time to time to see what's going on. See everyone Sunday night or so.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°40'N 89°29'W (23.6667N 89.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 438 miles (704 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,437m (4,715ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 19kts (From the N at ~ 21.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) in the west quadrant at 11:54:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (234°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR
Quoting P451:


I had to turn my laptop upside down to figure where that was... lol
Quoting gulfscout:


bust season?



3 or 4 name storms be for AUG is not a bust season
Is he supposed to gain speed, because I don't see him covering enough ground to make landfall tomorrow
Waters getting deeper and getting away from land. Don is getting ready to pop the cork.
ATCF says winds up, pressure up (?):

AL, 04, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 237N, 895W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DON, M,
Quoting gulfscout:


bust season?

For who?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Don is very small is size, but let's not forget the sheer size of the drought suffering regions in TX. It is enormous.

It would have to take 2 or 3 Don's three times the size to really alleviate things down there.
Going to take 20 to 30 inches to get over the drought in parts of Texas is what I am hearing? Unfortunately Texas is a huge state, alot of times I don't get much rain from the larger tropical systems here unless they move just right. Right now a scattered shower sounds nice to me.
000
URNT12 KNHC 281220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 28/11:55:40Z
B. 23 deg 40 min N
089 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1437 m
D. 30 kt
E. 297 deg 34 nm
F. 358 deg 19 kt
G. 266 deg 3 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 18 C / 1522 m
J. 21 C / 1534 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0204A DON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 19 KT W QUAD 11:54:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 11:57:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 234 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR
;
Quoting Tazmanian:



3 or 4 name storms be for AUG is not a bust season
maybe have one more name storm soon
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 04, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 237N, 895W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DON, M,

45mph, 1001mb now.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says winds up, pressure up (?):

AL, 04, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 237N, 895W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DON, M,



the nhc could go a little higher
Quoting gulfscout:


bust season?
It is not even in the peak months of the hurricane season so it is way to early to call it a bust.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

45mph, 1001mb now.


Ever so slight strengthening.
Probably looking at a 1002mb and 50mph wind storm right now. Probably around 55mph by 11am EDT advisory.
Quoting MrstormX:


Ever so slight strengthening.



but at the same time the nhc could go with the info the HH has
1578. Jax82
Quoting floridaboy14:
Look at the recent blowup of convection around the center. don is starting to get away from the yucatan and streghnthen


Don will also be/has entering warmer waters today, the waters just to the north of the Yucatan are a few degrees Celsius cooler.
Quoting Tazmanian:



but at the same time the nhc could go with the info the HH has


HH last centre past was weaker than that. 1002mb with peak winds 30knots.
which upcoming system are you talking about? I clicked on the link but could find it
some of you guys need too larn how too read the info on the HH then this say they olny found peak winds of 30kt no they did not they found i lot of 40kt + winds
Compact as ever:

Quoting Tazmanian:
some of you guys need too larn how too read the info on the HH then this say they olny found peak winds of 30kt no they did not they found i lot of 40kt + winds


I said at the last centre pass.

D. Estimated maximum surface wind: 30knots (34.5mph.)

Then at the bottom....

MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR

So these wind speeds were contaminated.
1584. Jax82
29-30 degree Celsius for the rest of Don's journey.

45mph seems a reasonable number for the next advisory, unless HH can find uncontaminated values higher.
Just wondering if anyone sees the avenue opening up to allow a more northerly movement. I was thinking brownsville but now I am having second thoughts.
anyone still think don could become a hurricane?
Quoting MrstormX:
Compact as ever:



Very tight. I have a feeling Don is going to catch some people off guard. Texas would be better off with a bigger system. These little ones can pack a punch in the core.
does everyone agree with the forecast track?
1590. P451
7 Days of DON compacted... 90 minutes per frame. Unfortunately approximately a 24 hour loss of server data while Don was south of Cuba.

Quoting gulfscout:
does everyone agree with the forecast track?


I'm thinking the Northern side of the cone with all due respect....

Taco :o)
Good morning all. I see the 8am computer models are out. Have they shifted back to the right? Last I heard Brownsville to Corpus needed to watch, now it looks like Corpus to Galveston? Thanks!
1594. P451
Deep Shear is a little problematic on Don's east side. Has a pretty clear path through the Gulf to landfall at the moment.





Mid shear is a problem on Don's south side.




Upper winds aren't providing very good venting of Don.




Don will continue to struggle for the day.
Wonder what's up with the moisture jumping more NW at the end of the last few frames where Don is....

is don weakining or stregnthining now?
The strong high pressure system will push this weak tropical system more west than north IMO. Don will hit extreme south Texas unless he strengthens then he could hit more of the middle Texas coast is what I am thinking. Texas is full of Hot and Dry air so I think rainfall totals will be disappointing except if you are in the path of this small storm.
1598. P451
Vort is nicely stacked however. No problems here.

1599. jpsb
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wonder what's up with the moisture jumping more NW at the end of the last few frames where Don is....

Yeah that was a very pronouced jump north. Maybe some rain here in S.E. Texas after all.
are the hurricane hunters still in don and is anyone posting new data?
Quoting dan77539:
Our local (Houston) NWS office shows us with a 50% chance of rain on Friday. I think the Texas drought map was on the blog a couple days ago--it showed that central areas of the state need the rain more than the Corpus-Brownsville area, so the southward shift is not very welcome news on that front.
There is a disturbance in La. that will bring southeast Texas some rain, it is moving slowly west.
Quoting Jax82:
29-30 degree Celsius for the rest of Don's journey.

Not only was the Yucatan impeding it, dry air, and shear, but upwelling.

Now he's free ...


1603. hydrus
The wave near the Antilles is showing signs of rotation...The models keep spinning something up in the extreme S.W.Caribbean...
1604. Jax82
If Don does make landfall in Corpus Christi he'll be going right smack in the middle of the Exceptional Drought areas of Texas, 75% of Texas is in the Exceptional Drought, 92% in Extreme.

For the GOES RSO fans:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1210Z THU JUL 28 2011

A GOES-EAST RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 28/1345Z THROUGH 29/0215Z IN
SUPPORT OF NHC`S COVERAGE OF TS DON IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

1606. P451
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The strong high pressure system will push this weak tropical system more west than north IMO. Don will hit extreme south Texas unless he strengthens then he could hit more of the middle Texas coast is what I am thinking. Texas is full of Hot and Dry air so I think rainfall totals will be disappointing except if you are in the path of this small storm.


If you look at the BAM model suite you will note that the BAMS (Shallow system run) is north, BAMM (mid level system run) is center, and BAMD (deep layer system run) is south.

I know this runs against what we usually expect but this seems to be the case. Deeper system will track further south.


Steering Layers with Height (MB)

My temperature has been 105 every day this week so not hitting 100 for one day is good enough for me, that is a nice break plus I will take my 20 percent chance of a shower with Don. People have to realize Don is very small and Texas is very big so not many will get decent rains.
1608. P451
Quoting hydrus:
The wave near the Antilles is showing signs of rotation...The models keep spinning something up in the extreme S.W.Caribbean...


I noticed yesterday they had taken the floater off of the ~35w system and placed it on the Antilles system.

I guess this is what they saw.
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Models updated to latest Vortex fix.






Okay, so let me get this straight: Don is weakening/strengthening, dissipating/organizing with a 1-100% chance of making it to hurricane strength and making landfall from Lake Charles to Brownsville. Have I hit the high points?

That's what I love about the blog; there's something for everyone!

1611. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
For the GOES RSO fans:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1210Z THU JUL 28 2011

A GOES-EAST RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 28/1345Z THROUGH 29/0215Z IN
SUPPORT OF NHC`S COVERAGE OF TS DON IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.



Nice!

1612. HCW
Latest Don Model runs from the NHC :) Stay Thirsty my friends


Quoting Jax82:
If Don does make landfall in Corpus Christi he'll be going right smack in the middle of the Exceptional Drought areas of Texas, 75% of Texas is in the Exceptional Drought, 92% in Extreme.



Don is not a very big one so it may not do much for the most part.
Thank you P451, you would think just the opposite of that? This high pressure has just been beating this state to death for such a long time my confidence level is not very high.
1615. P451
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Not only was the Yucatan impeding it, and shear, but upwelling.

Now he's free ...



If the upper level winds came together Don would be trouble. As long as they remain disorganized and venting remains poor he will only do so much. I don't want to field a guess but if he landfalls as a strong TS or borderline hurricane it wouldn't surprise me.

I don't see a reason yet to expect Don to just take off and really threaten Texas.

Also a thought: We want Don to remain a 50mph TS so he rides right up into the central Texas coast.

If he were to intensify significantly, if the upper level winds build in his favor, then he's going to northern Mexico.
1616. usa777
Looks like some nice convection firing in Don this morning.
1617. P451
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Thank you P451, you would think just the opposite of that? This high pressure has just been beating this state to death for such a long time my confidence level is not very high.


You would, and that usually is the case, but as you see in the loop of the steering currents in that post you see as we go up in height the steering is more "south" (usually they would be further "north"). So the stronger Don gets the further south he will make landfall.

1618. P451
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, so let me get this straight: Don is weakening/strengthening, dissipating/organizing with a 1-100% chance of making it to hurricane strength and making landfall from Lake Charles to Brownsville. Have I hit the high points?

That's what I love about the blog; there's something for everyone!



Yes.

With all bases covered, come Saturday, there will be someone that can say with great pride "I told you so."

:)

is anyone still going to be posting info from the hurricane hunters?
1620. jpsb
Well if I am going to anything to prepare for Don when the time to get started is now. What are the odds of Don sending TS strength winds to the Galveston Bay area? If greater the 1 in 3 then I will take action to protect my properties.
1621. hydrus
Quoting P451:


I noticed yesterday they had taken the floater off of the ~35w system and placed it on the Antilles system.

I guess this is what they saw.
Good cyclonic structure with the Atlantic wave..
1622. NEwxguy
Don't forget Flood, this will not help break the drought/this will be a drought buster.
Quoting floridaboy14:
is anyone still going to be posting info from the hurricane hunters?


HH is inbound on another Vortex run... I keep the pic updated about every 10-15 minutes
GOOOOOOOOD MORNING, WUNDERNAM!

Don headed 100 miles south (down the coast) from Galveston, I think.

Greatful that TX folk will get some rain, hopefully the system does not strengthen to such a degree that the rain benefit does not offset pain incurred from a strong landfalling system.
OracleDeAtlantis posted the images and now the page is all kinds of screwed up and once I got rid of that (sorry, Oracle; I'll take you off ignore when we turn the next page) and now you quote him, P451 my old friend and I'm right back there **sigh** guess I'll get to working and come back later when this thing has moved back a few pages
1626. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, so let me get this straight: Don is weakening/strengthening, dissipating/organizing with a 1-100% chance of making it to hurricane strength and making landfall from Lake Charles to Brownsville. Have I hit the high points?

That's what I love about the blog; there's something for everyone!

Hello Floodman......storms gonna getcha........:)
Quoting jpsb:
Well if I am going to anything to prepare for Don when the time to get started is now. What are the odds of Don sending TS strength winds to the Galveston Bay area? If greater the 1 in 3 then I will take action to protect my properties.


Situation does change


Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't forget Flood, this will not help break the drought/this will be a drought buster.


LOL...you are correct sir!
1629. hydrus
Some convection flaring up...
Steering for Don, assuming a bit of strengthening:

Quoting hydrus:
Hello Floodman......storms gonna getcha........:)


I certainly hope so
okay, got to get working...back soon!
Don is itty-bitty

1634. hydrus
Caribbean wave and Atlantic wave..
1635. ackee
which wave does the model devlop the one at 35 west now ? I think the one in the EASTERN carrb bare watching once its reach the westrn carrb
Is it just me, or does it look like recon is flying around about 50-100 miles in front of the storm?

13:15:30Z 25.050N 91.033W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1012.8 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 67° at 15 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 6.6°C
(~ 43.9°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
168.8%
13:16:00Z 25.033N 91.017W 844.2 mb
(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,582 meters
(~ 5,190 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 68° at 12 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 13.8 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 24 knots*
(~ 27.6 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 19.2 knots* (~ 22.1 mph*)
160.0%*
13:16:30Z 25.017N 90.983W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,594 meters
(~ 5,230 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 70° at 14 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 16.1 mph) 16.7°C
(~ 62.1°F) 6.3°C
(~ 43.3°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
171.4%
13:17:00Z 25.000N 90.967W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 78° at 15 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph) 16.8°C
(~ 62.2°F) 6.2°C
(~ 43.2°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 22.5 knots (~ 25.9 mph)
150.0%
13:17:30Z 24.983N 90.950W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,591 meters
(~ 5,220 feet) 1012.6 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 79° at 16 knots
(From between the ENE and E at ~ 18.4 mph) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 6.1°C
(~ 43.0°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
150.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
23.8N, 89.8W ... or so.
Will Corpus Christi get any rain from Don?
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, so let me get this straight: Don is weakening/strengthening, dissipating/organizing with a 1-100% chance of making it to hurricane strength and making landfall from Lake Charles to Brownsville. Have I hit the high points?

That's what I love about the blog; there's something for everyone!

i see we have the same reading on it, only different ;)
this is not a poll but next advisory 11pm how strong do u think don will be
Looks to be expanding its convection on all sides now in the last few frames.

Link
1642. hydrus
1644. HCW
They are out in front of it sampling the environment and that will give us more accurate model runs once it's ingested into the models
1645. hydrus
The big blob will move north across Panama..Possible development with Pacific blob...Possible heavy rain for Central America again..
Quoting NavarreMark:
The group of clouds known as Don is lookin a little sickly. Kinda pale and wan.

Wishcasters are attempting CPR in an attempt to revive.


Not really, it is clearly them most organized we have seen this since we lost visible images last night.
1647. jpsb
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Situation does change


Thanks, based on what I saw in 1595 I am going to assume a serious jog-move north plus a bit of strengthening so I'd say I'm 50-50 for TS winds. See ya all in a while got to go do stuff. thanks again.
East Matagorda Bay ... that is my peg for landfall with Don.
1649. snotly
My guess is it hits 75 miles SW of Galveston as a Cat 2 with winds of 100 mph. Early guess so lets hope I'm wrong on the weak side of things and not the strong side.
1650. hydrus
Don has a tail...
1651. hydrus
Better shot of Atlantic wave...
1652. P451
Don's expanded floater imagery page. SSD

Don's rammb floater imagery page.


Using rainbow, and creating a rocking loop, you can see the lower level clouds. In the NW quadrant you can see them real well. Convection is not stacked directly overhead - displaced to the S and SE of the surface circulation. You can also note the direction of the surface circulation - appears NW as of now.



IMAO, Don= Freeport, Strong Cat 1
1654. fmbill
Good morning all,

This may have already been discussed, but it looks like we are well on our way to having a well-above average season.

Doing a little research, over the past 30 years there have been only 6 other years that we have seen 4 or more tropical systems form prior to the month of August. 2008 (4), 2005 (7), 2003, (4), 1997 (5), 1995 (5), and 1989 (4).

If the wave in the east/central atlantic forms within the next couple of days, we will be in a season where only 3 other years saw 5 of more storms.
Blog is oddly slow ... we've become TC snobs around here, anything less than hurricane doesn't warrant the time I guess.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Blog is oddly slow ... we've become TC snobs around here, anything less than hurricane doesn't warrant the time I guess.


I know you meant it as a joke, but I think that is sadly a true statement.
1657. hydrus
Should be at least some rain for Texas..
1636. HurricaneDevo

They are determining the wind field. They will typically fly out from the center to the edge of 34 kt surface winds.
HH approaching the centre again. Interesting to see what pressure they find this time.

Poll anyone?....
Latest fix of 24N, 89.8W really shows a gain in latitude.

Next track update to shift up the TX coast a bit I think.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
HH approaching the centre again. Interesting to see what pressure they find this time.

Poll anyone?....


999mb-1002mb pressure
Uncontaminated winds between 40-50 kts
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)
1664. P451
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Blog is oddly slow ... we've become TC snobs around here, anything less than hurricane doesn't warrant the time I guess.


It also depends where the system is heading.

If Don was heading for NOLA this blog would pump out 100 posts per minute.

The other areas of large interest are South Florida, and the northern Lesser Antilles.

Everywhere else generally doesn't exist on this blog so traffic will be slow when any other area is threatened.




Quoting NICycloneChaser:
HH approaching the centre again. Interesting to see what pressure they find this time.

Poll anyone?....

No poll...let's just wait and see. Sounds like a better plan to me.
1666. snotly
Yep it looks to be sw of center. I wonder if the convection will become the new center.

Quoting P451:
Don's expanded floater imagery page. SSD

Don's rammb floater imagery page.


Using rainbow, and creating a rocking loop, you can see the lower level clouds. In the NW quadrant you can see them real well. Convection is not stacked directly overhead - displaced to the S and SE of the surface circulation. You can also note the direction of the surface circulation - appears NW as of now.



Visible always reveals the true location of center of circulation. Right now Don's main convection is displaced to South of the circulation.
1668. P451
Quoting DrMickey:
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)


IE screws up embedded youtube videos. I will go back and edit my post to remove the quoted youtube post.

--
Ok, done. Now the original post, #1602 , will probably screw up the blog for you.



1669. hydrus
Look for East Matagorda Bay as a potential landfall location.
1671. Jax82
There are plenty of hurricane wishcasters in here this morning, but lets not forget the storm intensity forecast from NWS this morning. It does not appear at the moment that Don will reach Hurricane status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 23.9N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.1N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.3N 94.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.3N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 29.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE
REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM
VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
SLOW DECLINE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON
MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND
DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. GIVEN THE REDUCED
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.



Don running with a starboard bias.


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN (MUIFA)
5:00 PM PhST July 28 2011
==============================

The Tropical Depression East of Visayas has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and intensified into a Tropical Storm and was named "KABAYAN"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Kabayan (Muifa) located at 12.3°N 134.7°E or 1,000 km east southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

This weather disturbance is too far to directly affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA (T1109)
21:00 PM JST July 28 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Muifa (996 hPa) located at 12.3N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 14.3N 131.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.7N 131.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.9N 130.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (T1108)
21:00 PM JST July 28 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (992 hPa) located at 18.2N 113.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
160 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.8N 110.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.1N 107.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.5N 104.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
1663 ...

Switch to 50 view, or ignore that blogger.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Blog is oddly slow ... we've become TC snobs around here, anything less than hurricane doesn't warrant the time I guess.


Kids aren't awake yet out west. It'll get busier then. We also get to look forward to the daily blog attack.

SARCASAM ON
999mb. A little bit of a drop from yesterday.
Thanks, P451! Looks OK now. I had forgotten about the YouTube/IE thing.

(Didn't mean to make it seem that it was your fault; just noticed the change in format...)
Convection is certainly lopsided although there has been noticeable improvement since last night.
1681. fmbill
Maybe not a drought-buster, but certainly would be a help.

1682. Caner
Since Dr... Masters takes every opportunity on his blog to promote warming, i think i would be remiss not to link this:

Link

Odd how the real world data vs. assumed stats for model plug-ins just shuts it down, huh?

Talk about your inconvenient truths...
1683. P451
Quoting snotly:
Yep it looks to be sw of center. I wonder if the convection will become the new center.



I wouldn't expect that to happen. The surface circulation is well formed and dominant. I wouldn't expect a reformation.

The convection is simply being pushed south by shear....but Don should be moving further away from the shear near Florida.

The other problem, mid level shear, is very strong to Don's south....so that too might be causing this problem -in fact maybe more so than the deeper layer shear to his east.

Can't quite tell if he will pull away from the mid-level shear or if it will move in tandem with him.

The worst problem however is Don's upper level winds - they are not very favorable. There is no well developed anti-cyclone above him. Venting is poor and that too hampers the ability for the convection to stack vertically over the surface circulation.


Quoting Jax82:
There are plenty of hurricane wishcasters in here this morning, but lets not forget the storm intensity forecast from NWS this morning. It does not appear at the moment that Don will reach Hurricane status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 23.9N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.1N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.3N 94.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.3N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 29.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED



This is true. It would be hard to justify forecasting a hurricane. However, they did say intensity forecasts on storms this size are "nearly impossible" to forecast.
1685. centex
click the trop pts than evaluate where convection is in relation to convection.
Quoting quakeman55:

No poll...let's just wait and see. Sounds like a better plan to me.


The poll bit was a joke.. Haha
1669:

Is that an Iowacane in that pic?
Did somebody say Poll time?

Link
Quoting DrMickey:
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)

1663. DrMickey 1:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
You're very, very ,very inactive!
1690. Levi32
Pressure falling to 999mb:

000
URNT15 KNHC 281347
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 23 20110728
133800 2406N 09015W 8429 01560 0081 187 065 029014 014 023 000 03
133830 2405N 09014W 8430 01555 0075 190 065 024013 013 024 001 00
133900 2404N 09012W 8432 01555 0073 190 066 019014 014 024 002 00
133930 2403N 09011W 8428 01555 0071 189 066 019014 015 022 000 00
134000 2402N 09009W 8433 01548 0070 190 065 021016 018 019 001 00
134030 2402N 09008W 8430 01550 0071 184 065 019017 018 020 001 03
134100 2401N 09006W 8433 01544 0069 183 065 017015 016 022 000 03
134130 2400N 09004W 8429 01545 0063 190 064 017015 017 023 000 00
134200 2359N 09003W 8430 01543 0062 186 064 011017 018 023 001 03
134230 2359N 09001W 8430 01538 0057 189 064 006018 018 024 000 00
134300 2358N 08959W 8432 01532 0046 195 064 005017 018 027 001 00
134330 2358N 08958W 8424 01537 0040 197 064 335013 014 030 000 03
134400 2357N 08956W 8432 01521 0033 198 065 300015 016 029 002 00
134430 2357N 08954W 8428 01518 0026 200 066 280015 017 029 001 00
134500 2357N 08952W 8433 01515 0027 196 067 246018 019 023 001 03
134530 2358N 08950W 8429 01520 0026 201 069 220018 020 /// /// 03
134600 2359N 08950W 8438 01506 0010 224 071 159018 020 /// /// 03
134630 2401N 08952W 8440 01499 9995 238 076 113026 030 026 000 03
134700 2401N 08954W 8438 01507 9992 253 081 093029 030 027 001 00
134730 2402N 08956W 8432 01520 0002 246 087 079031 032 026 001 03
$$
1691. P451
Quoting DrMickey:
Thanks, P451! Looks OK now. I had forgotten about the YouTube/IE thing.

(Didn't mean to make it seem that it was your fault; just noticed the change in format...)


No big deal. I had quoted post 1602 which had a youtube video.

Apparently the glitch is caused by quoting a youtube embedded post.

I'll shoot the WU tech support a message - although they are probably aware of the problem - you never know.

Pressure readings near the centre of around 999mb.
1693. hydrus
The Goes East Sounder and Imager shows moisture levels much better..Its worth a look...Link
1694. Levi32
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Agreed. A Cat 5 can rip through the Caribbean, tear north along the Bahamas, and smack Bermuda head-on--but to too many here, it wouldn't bear watching as it would be "just a fish storm". :-\


You are 100% correct.
NHC is now left of the model consensus. Don is running with a right bias and more in line with the models ATM.

nice swath of rain forecasted for texas great start to end the draught.
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas
Don got straight up sliced in half by the Yucatan. If the part that went south manages to re-form into another tropical storm, maybe it would be named Tropical Storm Don's Doppleganger
Quoting Vincent4989:
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas


FOCUS young man.
Quoting Vincent4989:
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas



C. All of the above
Looks like NHC will bump up to 40kts next update.
I can see one or two 1000.2 readings in that loop the loop he did.

Quoting Levi32:
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.


That's pretty impressive
These little shakes an wobbles add up over time. While not a big deal over the open ocean, they get increasingly important as you get closer to land.
1706. barbamz
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, July 28th, with Video


Very good. Thanks again for spending your time on this service, Levi!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Don running with a starboard bias.





Would that be to the right? Yes it's right or is it left. Depends on if your facing forward or aft. I'm confused now. Just joking it's right. And I do agree with you.
IMO 45 mph, 999 mb at 11 am.
50mph could be reasonable with that 999mb pressure reading
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 45 mph, 999 mb at 11 am.


I would say 1000, and 45mph but yeah roughly there, I would also expect a decent shift north but predict they will go left of guidance.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 45 mph, 999 mb at 11 am.


That would be my guess too.
1714. xcool
newwwwwwwwww blogggggggg
1715. P451
NEW BLOG












NEW BLOG
Looks like it's strengthening as it clears the Yucatan and heads for warmer water. Possibly getting a bit larger too.

Depending on how much the High to the north effects it I'd still guess a landfall somewhere between Port Mansfield and Aransas Pass as a strong TS, possibly a even a small hurricane.

I guess all that with nothing more than fifty years experience of watching Texas hurricanes. In the end Don will do what it does. I haven't done any more down here on the far south Laguna Madre than tie up my boat good.
This one is fairly small so it looks like there won't be much surge, and when you live on the Laguna Madre and your bottom floor is all of 1i or so feet above MSL that's your first concern.
1717. MahFL
Looks like a west track atm, to MX, no rain for TX....
1718. hydrus
NEW BLOOOOOOOOOOGGGG!!!!
Quoting MrstormX:


I'd agree with that, he obviously had overnight troubles.
I Think dry air and land interaction were tough on him last night. he seems to be doing ok now
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Not only was the Yucatan impeding it, dry air, and shear, but upwelling.

Now he's free ...




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Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 532



agreed, he had a bit of a rough go last night into this am, he's doing better now
Quoting Jax82:
If Don does make landfall in Corpus Christi he'll be going right smack in the middle of the Exceptional Drought areas of Texas, 75% of Texas is in the Exceptional Drought, 92% in Extreme.

I think Corpus is the best locaation for landfall to help the most with their rainfall issues.
Quoting MrstormX:


Not really, it is clearly them most organized we have seen this since we lost visible images last night.
agreed, def looks the best since he was named
Quoting hydrus:
Don has a tail...
the don has coattails
Quoting Levi32:
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.


Levi, Why are the circulations not stacking? Is it that the steering currents at differnt levels of the atmosphere are slightly different? Or shear, which was light, and thought to be getting lighter?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
These little shakes an wobbles add up over time. While not a big deal over the open ocean, they get increasingly important as you get closer to land.
just ask the people in Punta Gorda Florida