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Tropical Storm Danny Weakening; TD Kilo Less of a Threat to Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2015

Tropical Storm warnings are flying for the northern Lesser Antilles islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla, as a weakening Tropical Storm Danny heads west at 15 mph. Danny passed very close to Buoy 41300 on Sunday afternoon, which measured top winds of 42 mph at 11 am EDT. High wind shear and dry air continue to take their toll on Danny, which had weakened to top winds of 50 mph as of 2:00 pm EDT Sunday. Danny remains a very small tropical storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out about 60 miles to the northeast of the center and 20 miles to the southwest. Satellite loops on Sunday afternoon showed that Danny's low-level circulation had become exposed to view, with only a small clump of heavy thunderstorms clustered on the storm's north and east sides.


Figure 1. A visible image of Tropical Storm Danny at 2 pm EDT on Sunday, August 23, showed that the low-level center had become exposed to view, with all of Danny's heavy thunderstorms clustered on the north and east sides of the center.

Forecast for Danny
Given Danny's small size and the continued hostile wind shear and dry air affecting the storm, further weakening is likely. Our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both dissipate Danny by Tuesday. Interaction with high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could well finish Danny off, and I doubt the storm will be around on Wednesday. Rainfall from Danny could end up being more boon than bane for the islands, which are suffering one of their worst droughts in decades.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 98L from NASA's Terra satellite taken at approximately 10 am EDT Sunday, August 23, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

98L in Eastern Atlantic well-organized
In the Eastern Atlantic about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 98L appears poised to become the next tropical depression of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season as it steams westward at a rapid 20 mph. Satellite loops on Sunday afternoon showed that 98L had a well-developed spin and some low level spiral bands beginning to form, but heavy thunderstorm activity was limited, due to the dry air. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis offered by the University of Wisconsin shows plenty of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air will potentially impede development of 98L throughout the week. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are favorable for development, near 27°C. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model diagnosed moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over 98L, and predicted the shear would remain in the moderate range through at least Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 80%, respectively, to 98L. Steering currents for 98L are very similar to what Danny experienced, and the 8 am EDT (12Z) Sunday run of the GFS model showed 98L taking a track into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday, passing near Puerto Rico on Thursday, then over the Dominican Republic by Friday. The European model was about 12 hours slower with 98L, bringing the system into the Southeast Bahamas by Saturday. Wind shear will rise at 98L approaches the islands, which should force the system to weaken

New tropical wave coming off of Africa a marginal threat to develop
A strong tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday, and may well be classified as Invest 99L by NHC by Monday. This wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and will encounter similar conditions as Danny and 98L did--warm ocean waters, moderate wind shear, but plenty of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to contend with. These conditions favor some modest development, and in their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

97L north of Bermuda no threat
In the Northwest Atlantic, Invest 97L, a cluster of storms associated with a weakening upper low and frontal zone a few hundred miles north of Bermuda, is accelerating to the north and is about to be absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% to 97L.

Threat to Hawaii from Kilo diminishes
Residents of Hawaii should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Kilo, which is expected to mill around in the waters well west of the islands the next few days. Briefly a tropical storm, Kilo was downgraded on Friday night as its large area of westward-moving showers and thunderstorms (convection) outran the low-level circulation. Kilo will still likely organize into a hurricane, but the latest forecasts from the GFS and European model keep the storm well to the west of Hawaii for at least the next five days.

Hawaii should keep an eye on three tropical disturbances to its east, in the waters of the Eastern Pacific to the southwest of Mexico. The easternmost of these disturbances (which was given 5-day development odds of 70% by NHC in their 2 pm Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook) could pose a long-range threat to Hawaii next week, according to the 12Z Sunday run of the GFS model, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, there is plenty of activity, with Category 3 Typhoon Goni pounding Japan's southern islands. The highest reported gust from the typhoon was 71.0 m/s (159 mph) at Ishigakijima. Category 1 Typhoon Atsani was heading northeast out to sea, and Tropical Storm Loke was headed northwards towards Midway Island. I don't have time for a full update, as I have to run to catch a plane to Atlanta for Monday's 6 pm EDT premiere on The Weather Channel of the new Weather Underground TV show!

I'll have a new update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Blobus Triumphus"
Quoting 494. wunderkidcayman:

Recon #6 into Danny finished bird headed home
It will be interesting to see how "kuppenskup" will interpret the latest data. Hopefully he'll get a chance to look at it tonight, then we'll have a clearer picture of what's happening.
Slow down 98L Danny is trying to resurrect.
Quoting 486. SunnyDaysFla:


\you are very enigmatic tonight




Probably because my family left today and I'm alone. Besides, you people are the only ones that laughs at my jokes. My family thinks of me as serious and staid.
Quoting 498. Tazmanian:

if Danny can last one more day and get past the 20kt of shear Danny will have vary favourable conditions i think Danny we could see some rapid intensification once he gets past the 20kt of shear hes all ready comeing back too life



Hmm change of heart TAZ hmm

Intensification yes rapid nah I think not

Btw you changed your profile pic when you got back your account?


Blobus Grothæscus...
trying my luck
blobus fightsheersalius :P
Quoting 474. JRRP:

west

You think we will get rain from pre Erika?
Quoting 503. unknowncomic:

Slow down 98L Danny is trying to resurrect.



Hmm wow already pass 40W
98L is surely a fast mover

Lol she might move so fast it runs past everything in the Atlantic and crosses into the Pacific lol
You all know what will happen with Danny. We'll wake up and it'll be covered again. It's why I asked the question this afternoon what happens when he goes south of the islands.

Quoting 510. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm wow already pass 40W



Maybe Danny called in some backup moisture? ; ) Yes 98L is cruising quite fast.
Hope Danny or its remnants bring some relief to the drought situation in Puerto Rico. Have been talking to my family there and said they only have running water two days out of the week.
They are all too hilarious for me to pick one. It is amazing what will come to your mind when challenged. Keep them coming and you can all vote for one. I'll read them before the Doc interrupts us tomorrow.

Hey, that's another one. Blobus Interruptus.

Nite everyone. SNAKE, you came close to winning. If I get a night call, I may stop in briefly. Natti, Natti as we say in Norway.
Well guys looks like we got a lot of crow to catch clean and fix up to serve to a good amount of people tomorrow morning

A lot of people tonight was RIPping Danny tonight they expect to wake up tomorrow to find nothing
If Danny continues they will be in a state of shock and surprise when they see it

Quoting 509. Starhopper:


There he goes again,, "I'm back"....
Quoting 514. EricSFL:

Hope Danny or its remnants bring some relief to the drought situation in Puerto Rico. Have been talking to my family there and said they only have running water two days out of the week.

You guys need to lobby for a "reverse osmosis water treatment plant"? Make it happen :) Good luck on the rain,
I hope you get all you need safely.
Quoting 510. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm wow already pass 40W
98L is surely a fast mover

Lol she might move so fast it runs past everything in the Atlantic and crosses into the Pacific lol
And not before waving at the Cayman Islands.
But beware the Blob - doomdontcomenearus

Those un's can ruin a Region

CV # 2

98L

Quoting 517. HuracanTaino:

There he goes again,, "I'm back"....

He is trying huh,, been down so many times hard to keep track. I do remember a few others
similar through the years, their names escape me now. Tenacity happens.
Quoting 517. HuracanTaino:

There he goes again,, "I'm back"....


Those CV ones can take a licking and keep on upticking,...given time and circumstance.

Tenacious "D" is far from down and out'.
And this one over Africa is a beast.
Quoting 511. ProgressivePulse:

You all know what will happen with Danny. We'll wake up and it'll be covered again. It's why I asked the question this afternoon what happens when he goes south of the islands.




Blog freak out-itis beaucoup no doubt.

Quoting 511. ProgressivePulse:

You all know what will happen with Danny. We'll wake up and it'll be covered again. It's why I asked the question this afternoon what happens when he goes south of the islands.




Personally IMO
I think Danny will miss Hispaniola passing it to its S Danny may impact the NW Caribbean Jamaica and Cuba with possible impacts to Florida Danny moving N into Florida anyway that's a possible outcome

Atleast the rain will help all the areas with drought lol
DANNY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 23

Location: 15.6°N 59.8°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
All sides and a mid-level migration. Dude won't quit.

Quoting 517. HuracanTaino:

There he goes again,, "I'm back"....


PINHOLE EYE xD

Maybe 98L will turn into a classic Cape Verde system, real big with a 25nm eye. Those are my favorites, some from the past few years are Igor, Katia, Bill
529. SLU
Quoting 493. wunderkidcayman:

Well once again Danny cover it LLCOC with convection once again lol it's like rewinding to last night and reliving the same thing

Anyway if Danny can continue building on convection and organise it we could potentially see Danny restrengthen and if this continues as Danny moves W through the Eastern Caribbean the forecast may change and Danny will have its new lease one life

If Danny could build and sustain enough convection its moisture content may be able to flush out the dry air content

I mean there is not much inhibiting danny once it reaches into the E Caribbean near 65W

Danny will have low shear 5-10kts E to W Caribbean from 65W to about 80/85W N of 15N
High SSTs + high tropical cyclones heat potential/oceanic heat content
No land interactions providing it stays S of 17/18N

The only thing is the dry mid-upper air but as I said if Danny can build enough convection and organise it around the LLCOC fully and flush out the dry air it theoretically Danny could work with that

But anyway it's still a bit out there
Let's see what we will have tomorrow night first before we get on to other things


Can't argue with that. Danny has had a history of effectively handling dry air, and the modest amounts that lie ahead of him shouldn't be too much of a problem. However, I am still concerned about land interaction with Hispanola.
Danny shifted into second gear at 15 mph to the West.

Or 90 Miles every 6 Hours.

Check those end lines tomorrow at 00Z.

Quoting 527. ProgressivePulse:

All sides and a mid-level migration. Dude won't quit.



Reply: Yeah wow. Why does it seem Danny and 98L fire convection most at night? Lower winds?
Now I can't stop looking at the names :)

And Eric, thanks for the personal touch.

One day we will have to name one Blobus Twitus. See if they put that one on The Weather Channel

Really, Goodnight and vote for the best you think.
534. MahFL
The dot near the islands is growing :

Quoting 519. unknowncomic:

And not before waving at the Cayman Islands.


Lol she might move so fast only E Caribbean would get half days rain and Central America a full days and nowhere else know body would know what hit them lol
Quoting 533. Grothar:

Now I can't stop looking at the names :)

And Eric, thanks for the personal touch.

One day we will have to name one Blobus Twitus. See if they put that one on The Weather Channel

Really, Goodnight and vote for the best you think.


Dream drømmene til en drømmer
Quoting 515. Grothar:

They are all too hilarious for me to pick one. It is amazing what will come to your mind when challenged. Keep them coming and you can all vote for one. I'll read them before the Doc interrupts us tomorrow.

Hey, that's another one. Blobus Interruptus.

Nite everyone. SNAKE, you came close to winning. If I get a night call, I may stop in briefly. Natti, Natti as we say in Norway.


Wait, you're Norwegian?
Nice to see Danny pulling himself together again.

Blobus Persistensis, indeed.

Brother is in St. Kitts visiting his son there, and they say they are all looking East tonight.
They going to get some rain for sure, but not enough wind to bother them too much.
The good news for PR is that the little rain left is exposed to the NE of the COC... and as it passes S of us will leave us some rain....
Quoting 478. MiamiHurricanes09:

98L will probably be 05L tomorrow. Probably gonna be Danny's twin sister, though Erika may be a little tougher.
Tougher than Danny, not easy he became a Cat 3, future Erika is moving too fast, she needs to slow down some to gain ''momentum'' before entering hostile conditions ahead...






Man... That's better than a Lava Lamp!
Quoting 532. Starhopper:



Pressures are lower at night and aid in convection. Weaker systems are more influenced by the daily fluctuations.
I am still trying to conceive how they will try to overcome the impetuous RIPs if he does overcome like the lion tamer he is....will they shift all of the focus to the GFDL which has been calling for regeneration pretty much the entire time? How does one explain away the misguided forecast if he does come back....
Dot watch summer 2015 is in full effect!
Quoting 485. Grothar:

I really should name this one over Africa even just for my own amusement. Better yet, I will take names from the peanut gallery and the best one wins a cookie. OK Blobus ?????????
Blobus Verdi-cuss
Quoting 543. ProgressivePulse:



Pressures are lower at night and aid in convection. Weaker systems are more influenced by the daily fluctuations.

Nice. Thanks for the info!
The circulation needs some work, but 98L is inching closer to tropical depression status.

Quoting 542. ChillinInTheKeys:



Man... That's better than a Lava Lamp!
Brilliant ! Heheheheheeh
Quoting 516. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys looks like we got a lot of crow to catch clean and fix up to serve to a good amount of people tomorrow morning

A lot of people tonight was RIPping Danny tonight they expect to wake up tomorrow to find nothing
If Danny continues they will be in a state of shock and surprise when they see it


You should probably wait until tomorrow morning before you start rounding up crow.

98L is a bloomin'
Quoting 540. sunlinepr:

The good news for PR is that the little rain left is exposed to the NE of the COC... and as it passes S of us will leave us some rain....



Hopefully it will grow more convection as he approaches Puerto Rico, since shear is only 10 to 15 after 64 W.
Quoting 549. pottery:

Brilliant ! Heheheheheeh


evening pottery....how ya doing? looking to the east yet?
Looks for moments a WSW movement... will get it into the Caribbean...

Quoting 551. Starhopper:


Looks very close to TD status already...
Quoting 551. Starhopper:


98L is a bloomin'
This will be Erika tomorrow.
Quoting 553. tiggeriffic:



evening pottery....how ya doing? looking to the east yet?

Well, sort of Vaguely, you know ?
Nice weather this weekend, and we were up in the mountains.
Enjoyed the cooler days up there at 1800' in the forest.
Quoting 530. tropicfreak:



Can't argue with that. Danny has had a history of effectively handling dry air, and the modest amounts that lie ahead of him shouldn't be too much of a problem. However, I am still concerned about land interaction with Hispanola.


Yeah but if Danny Stays S of Hispaniola it shouldn't be much of a problem

Quoting 544. tiggeriffic:

I am still trying to conceive how they will try to overcome the impetuous RIPs if he does overcome like the lion tamer he is....will they shift all of the focus to the GFDL which has been calling for regeneration pretty much the entire time? How does one explain away the misguided forecast if he does come back....
The first thing we have to se is if Danny actually comes back. This is not the first time I've seen a battle between amateurs and the NHC. The NHC rarely loses that battle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 61.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.3N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.8N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0000Z 17.5N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
All this talk about regeneration?

One must be dead to regenerate.
Quoting 550. sar2401:

You should probably wait until tomorrow morning before you start rounding up crow.
But I'm sure that after the grow in convection near the COC , NHC will keep it as a storm, ...
Quoting 554. sunlinepr:

Almost a WSW movement... will get it into the Caribbean...



Still a long way out.
Could Follow a Danny track though.
Although if it tracks south of that, there will be more WV to feed from.

One to keep an eye on, again.
Quoting 558. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah but if Danny Stays S of Hispaniola it shouldn't be much of a problem




You're right, if it stays weak and inherently on a more westerly course.
Quoting 557. pottery:


Well, sort of Vaguely, you know ?
Nice weather this weekend, and we were up in the mountains.
Enjoyed the cooler days up there at 1800' in the forest.


you got a couple days lol...hope you haven't had the droughts so many others have had...it is hard to fathom isn't it? A tropical Island surrounded by water in a drought...I understand the whole salt water thing...but it is just hard to wrap ones head around things like that
566. MahFL
Looks to me the shear relaxed some on Danny.
Looks like WV from SA will feed Danny and us...
What a beast man.

When I was still living with my folks in 2006, they installed a generator after the 2005 Hurricane season. With the exception of monthly tests, it's never been used. Funny how that all worked out.
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics....big takeaways are...

1. "Although the northeastern Caribbean Sea islands are dealing with Tropical Storm Danny over the next 24 hours...interests in this region should also be watching tropical disturbance Invest 98-L which could become a tropical cyclone at any time and will already be moving into this region in 3 to 4 days."

2. I think the tropical wave that has emerged from Africa is being underrated by the NHC a bit...I think it will become another tropical cyclone but then encounter unfavorable shear while in the open ocean.

3. I think Danny will soon open into a tropical wave which will then pass south of Hispaniola (unlike the thinking yesterday which said Danny should move into Hispaniola). I haven't decided yet on whether or not the wave would regenerate after dissipation...waiting to see how good the remnant wave looks before deciding that.
Quoting 569. ElConando:

When I was still living with my folks in 2006, they installed a generator after the 2005 Hurricane season. With the exception of monthly tests, it's never been used. Funny how that all worked out.


we have 2 generators...one small just to use while the other one cools and gets refueled and then the big one to run the fridge, freezer, and necessities....best rule to follow is to have it and not need it than need it and not have it....I was without power for what seemed like forever during Hugo...my oldest was a hand baby...I couldn't even keep his formula from spoiling....wont be that unprepared again....I had no clue how important a generator could be...now it is for insulin for the hubby...
Quoting 568. ProgressivePulse:

What a beast man.




I remember the last named storm named Erica did a lot of this towards it's demise, it demised, as this storm seems to be doing. I'll give it a chance if it steers clear of Hispaniola but the steering currents likely won't make that possible.
574. MahFL
Quoting 569. ElConando:

When I was still living with my folks in 2006, they installed a generator after the 2005 Hurricane season. With the exception of monthly tests, it's never been used. Funny how that all worked out.


It's been a whole decade since a Cat 3 made landfall on the US mainland, a lot of people have no idea what a land falling cat 3 can do, and when it happens there will be a lot of people caught with thier pants down.
Bear family beating the heat in a backyard pool in Rockaway Township, New Jersey, August 18th. Ends with a cliffhanger!

Quoting 568. ProgressivePulse:

What a beast man.




Looking better
577. MahFL
A slug of slight moisture in the northern islands :

Im excited.... the radar shows quite a bit of rain...#dominica
Quoting 565. tiggeriffic:



you got a couple days lol...hope you haven't had the droughts so many others have had...it is hard to fathom isn't it? A tropical Island surrounded by water in a drought...I understand the whole salt water thing...but it is just hard to wrap ones head around things like that

Yeah, it's been a strange one !
Although June and July ended up close to average rainfall, most of it was a couple heavy downpours.
Very few periods of wet days, courtesy the ITCZ.
In the mountains the rivers are still very "quiet" the ground is certainly not saturated. Unusual for August for sure.

We do have a big DeSal plant here providing all the water for the main Industrial area (fertilizer, steel plant, big petrochemical stuff) .
They take the water out of the Gulf of Paria, which is pretty low salinity thanks to the Orinoco River flow. The Orinoco is BIG, and the delta is only a couple miles away.
So it's pretty efficient.

Tonight It's a bit disturbing since there has been no official watch/ warning issued for Dominica as yet-the island of Dominica (Commonwealth of Dominica) appear to be really under threat Re:- Danny's centre of circulation...

And all this Despite the following which seems to be putting Dominica in more or less the direct line of fire -still there have been no watches or warnings issued to date for the island:-
23rd August 2015- T.S. Danny- SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...15.6N 59.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

-At the current Latitude as well as forward movement and based on Radar/ Current Satellite imagery the centre of Danny should be passing over or just north of Dominica- perhaps directly over the French dependency island of Marie Galante. Which is between Guadeloupe and Dominica. I do hope they have battened down the hatches on Marie Galante as well.

Here on the North East coast of Dominica shower activity has intensified as the bands from Danny continue to spiral in at our coast. Winds are picking up and the Ocean is definitely beginning to churn as I can hear it surging onshore from my residence which is not at all a usual occurrence.

May God continue to Bless us All!
Quoting 574. MahFL:



It's been a whole decade since a Cat 3 made landfall on the US mainland, a lot of people have no idea what a land falling cat 3 can do, and when it happens there will be a lot of people caught with thier pants down.


Maybe people living inland in the US don't know much about hurricanes, but a feel like coastal dwellers have had too many Hurricanes hit last decade to forget about their power altogether. Now if this trend continues for say 15 more years, then I'd say you'd have an argument.


98L has continued to become more organized over the past 36-48 hrs as it remains favorably juxtaposed on the southern periphery of the easterly trade wind belt & the TUTT shear axis, with an embedded jet streak ~>50 knots that's providing some extra ventilation to this disturbance. An ASCAT pass about an hour ago revealed a elongated circulation (from SW-NE) with little-no discernible northwesterly winds in its southwestern quadrant, however, even modest intensification of 98L in the next day or so may warrant an upgrade to a tropical depression or tropical storm given its current organization & convective structure. Even though 98L appears to be currently contending with some light-moderate upper level easterly shear, dry air, and is moving quite rapidly, this is a rather large system that's far more likely to survive the relatively hostile conditions that are prevalent throughout the deep tropical Atlantic, especially considering Danny has pre-conditioned the atmosphere & mixed out a significant proportion of the SAL that once dominated the central tropical Atlantic. Additionally, the TUTT currently spanning across most of the tropical Atlantic should deteriorate some in the face of 98L as decent trough pushes off the eastern US in the next few days & reshuffles the ET pattern, allowing for a nice ACWB & favorable (divergent) upper level environment to any passing TC in the southwestern Atlantic under this invigorated ULAC. Assuming 98L avoids land interaction with Hispaniola & is a formidable disturbance north of the Greater Antilles by next week, the opportunity is there for appreciable intensification in the southwestern & subtropical western Atlantic in an area that's climatologically one of the most favorable portions of the Atlantic basin during NINO events. Of course the steering flow may break down next week pending on the interaction between Typhoon Atsani over the NW Pacific and a trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula, which will be crucial to amplifying the Pacific-North American RWT that will eventually culminate with a large ridge centered ~southeastern/Atlantic Canada, a pattern that typically favors TC landfalls on the US coast. The precise track, intensity, size, & location of the ET features will also be important in dictating 98L's chances of directly impacting the US (again assuming that this is already a formidable TC north of the Antilles by this time) & will play a large role in determining whether or not 98L gets caught into the streamflow underneath the burgeoning ridge to its north & exits harmlessly out to sea, mills around in the western Atlantic, or perhaps makes landfall on the US coastline. The details & likelihood of each (or any) of these scenarios will slowly emerge over the coming days as 98L approaches the Lesser Antilles.

N America 6-10 Day z500 ECMWF ENS (WMO Essential 0.5 degree)



ASO z500 Hurricane Seasons with 3+ US hurricane landfalls (via Link)



This doesn't go without saying that the background signal heavily favors recurvature in the western Atlantic....

Strong El Ninos (1870-2014) N America z500 (ASO)



but it's certainly not impossible to see hurricane landfalls on the eastern seaboard during strong El Ninos with a powerful hurricane already in progress north of Hispaniola & PR.
Two (1896)




Betsy (1965)

Webberweather53 I always enjoy your post thank you.


Almost here Danny, welcome to PR...
Quoting 573. ElConando:



I remember the last named storm named Erica did a lot of this towards it's demise, it demised, as this storm seems to be doing. I'll give it a chance if it steers clear of Hispaniola but the steering currents likely won't make that possible.

Yeah, I'm not sure why everybody is acting like this is out of the ordinary. Convection bursts with dying tropical cyclones all the time. That doesn't change the fact that conditions are not favorable for intensification and probably won't ever be.
Quoting 582. Webberweather53:



Billon Dollar Betsey
Quoting 580. NatureIsle:


Tonight It's a bit disturbing since there has been no official watch/ warning issued for Dominica as yet-the island of Dominica (Commonwealth of Dominica) appear to be really under threat Re:- Danny's centre of circulation...


I would agree if Danny was a moderate or strong tropical storm...but this thing only has 40 mph max sustained winds. This will probably feel like a typical but vigorous tropical wave with some showers and thunderstorms. If anything this is a good storm because its gonna bring some rain to those that need it.
588. Siker
Quoting 582. Webberweather53:

*snip*


Love the analysis Eric. I'm certainly intrigued by the chance of any US impact; starting college in Massachusetts next week, a passing storm would be a unique way to start my atmospheric science class :).
Lets get Rincon moving... We need some surf!!!...
Expecting 7ft in the North shore...


There was another hurricane which made landfall in the US as a cat 3 in 1896.

592. MahFL
Quoting 581. ElConando:



Maybe people living inland in the US don't know much about hurricanes, but a feel like coastal dwellers have had too many Hurricanes hit last decade to forget about their power altogether. Now if this trend continues for say 15 more years, then I'd say you'd have an argument.


Imho your wrong, there are many 20 to 25 year olds who are now living on the coast who have not even seen reports of a Cat 3 less alone been any where near one.
Quoting 567. sunlinepr:

Looks like WV from SA will feed Danny and us...

Is that wind shear coming from SA to meet Danny?
Quoting 592. MahFL:



Imho your wrong, there are many 20 to 25 year olds who are now living on the coast who have not even seen reports of a Cat 3 less alone been any where near one.

Like me? lol.... Well I'd like to say I think I know just a little more on what to expect from a major hurricane than you're average 20-25 year old (;
We just keep getting more and more convection

Quoting 589. sunlinepr:

Lets get Rincon moving... We need some surf!!!...
Expecting 7ft in the North shore...



Playa Jobos in Isabela will be better
Danny apparently called in reinforcements.


Maybe he's pulling off that thin lane of blue SE lol

wow
O pilot of the storm, that leave's no trace

like thoughts inside a dream'



601. MahFL
Quoting 595. opal92nwf:


Like me? lol.... Well I'd like to say I think I know just a little more on what to expect from a major hurricane than you're average 20-25 year old (;


The fact your here means you do !
TXNT25 KNES 240201
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 23/2345Z

C. 13.6N

D. 39.2W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
Quoting 595. opal92nwf:


Like me? lol.... Well I'd like to say I think I know just a little more on what to expect from a major hurricane than you're average 20-25 year old (;


Until you have been through one you have no idea what its like to go through a major no matter what age you are !!
Quoting 602. hurricanes2018:

TXNT25 KNES 240201
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 23/2345Z

C. 13.6N

D. 39.2W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI


TD5 is here?


watching invest 98L
608. MahFL
Quoting 605. ProgressivePulse:



TD5 is here?



Not yet, likely the 5 am update.
Quoting 603. whitewabit:



Until you have been through one you have no idea what its like to go through a major no matter what age you are !!


Preparedness is the key, as is not "being in one" - if at ALL possible. Or at least outside the red zone of highest winds.

Information is key when you're not even sure what to do to prepare.

From NOAA Miami Library: Hurricanes....unleashing natures's fury: A PREPAREDNESS GUIDE
(many others out there). Stay safe folks and help others to.

www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/hurricane.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
Tropical wave behind 98L also getting better organized over the Cape Verde Islands.
Very Heavy Rain in Dominica right now, and the storm is still hours away
Quoting 610. NCHurricane2009:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
Tropical wave behind 98L also getting better organized over the Cape Verde Islands.


The tropics are really firing up, aren't they?
Quoting 611. Xandtar:

Very Heavy Rain in Dominica right now, and the storm is still hours away



There have been small flare-ups of convection in advance of Danny's circulation evident on satellite imagery.
IT has arrived...
Quoting 609. Starhopper:



Preparedness is the key, as is not "being in one" - if at ALL possible. Or at least outside the red zone of highest winds.

Information is key when you're not even sure what to do to prepare.

From NOAA Miami Library: Hurricanes....unleashing natures's fury: A PREPAREDNESS GUIDE
(many others out there). Stay safe folks and help others to.

www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/hurricane.html


There are time when no matter the preparedness you are forced to be inside the Red Zone as you call it .. During those times even if you think you are prepared you won't be .. A hurricane with throw something your way you would never expect ..

Have you ever see water being blown through a concrete block wall ??
Quoting 614. Patrap:

Danny Guadaloupe Animated Radar loop

Is that a large EYE? (wipes eyes)
Quoting 616. whitewabit:



There are time when no matter the preparedness you are forced to be inside the Red Zone as you call it .. During those times even if you think you are prepared you won't be .. A hurricane with throw something your way you would never expect ..

Have you ever see water being blown through a concrete block wall ??

I was at ground zero Wilma (Marco) and in Andrew eyewall. Charley produced 90 mph winds at my locale.
Stay safe.
Quoting 617. Starhopper:


Is that a large EYE? (wipes eyes)


Danny looks like he's just a large surface low now ..
Quoting 617. Starhopper:


Is that a large EYE? (wipes eyes)


Too disorganized to be an eye. But it's definatley showing overall reorganization of Danny
Danny re-firing a new warm column tonight as He approaches the Leewards.




98L will go 90/90 and the likely 99L will be 40/50.
Quoting 618. Starhopper:


I was at ground zero Wilma (Marco) and in Andrew eyewall. Charley produced 90 mph winds at my locale.
Stay safe.


Camille .. west side of Biloxi .. Keesler ..

200 MPH ..
Those who constantly dismiss this CV Genesis Storm should take heed to History and climatology.

Danny has always had a excellent lower structure at His core, and does tonight.




625. 7544
i bet if danny blows up over night we may see a coc reloated a bit further north tomorow only i m o
Quoting 624. Patrap:

Those who constantly dismiss this CV Genesis Storm should take heed to History and climatology.

Danny has always had a excellent lower structure at His core, and does tonight.







Not to forget convection is wrapping around the system again
you think maybe convection is firing up because of interaction with land?
Quoting 627. ATLsweather:

you think maybe convection is firing up because of interaction with land?



I don't think those tiny islands really have much of an effect.
Quoting 623. whitewabit:



Camille .. west side of Biloxi .. Keesler ..

200 MPH ..

Fowey rocks Miami in Andrew: Weather station destroyed with needle pinned at 220 and storm wasn't peaking
yet.

hah. I wasn't there luckily. Easily 130 at my house or more? though. Wilma had 125 sustained for 3 or 4 hours.
Why I say to leave. It was stupid for me to sit around in that or chance it. Thrill is gone. Dangerous.
Be prepared and stay safe is all I meant.

Red zone to avoid at all costs in majors:

A little wet lane? ?
Danny doing very good tonight LLCOC around 15.6N 59.8W give or take

Danny is improving around His CoC as the shear has dropped dramatically ahead of Him.

The Water Vapor Loop shows dat well.




Quoting 632. Patrap:

Danny is improving around His CoC as the shear has dropped dramatically ahead of Him

Oh shear is dropping too? hmm.
Im sorry but is it to soon to award danny the Atlantic`s best storm 2015.............. the amount of fight this guy is putting out geez!
Nite all. ; ) Thanks for the great info. Danny sure is a tough one.
Could the convection over the islands be due to orthographic lifting?

Quoting 627. ATLsweather:

you think maybe convection is firing up because of interaction with land?

Moisture at the mid levels.
Quoting 637. SunnyDaysFla:

Could the convection over the islands be due to orthographic lifting?


I've seen that happen in Colorado ..
Quoting 623. whitewabit:



Camille .. west side of Biloxi .. Keesler ..

200 MPH ..


Still more than skeptical of those estimates, sure we don't use damage survey's to rate hurricanes, but if we rated wind damage using visual surveys from 0-5 for hurricanes, wind damages images from Camille from what I've seen aren't nearly as impressive as Andrew. If I see something else that suggests otherwise, sure, but it's greatest destruction appears mostly due to surge.

Now, that doesn't mean I'm saying it wasn't a devastating event by any means. In fact, the images from Camille look startlingly similar to Katrina, in that it appears the vast majority of the devastation images appear to be from surge. Camille's damage images to me appear to indicate a similar event to Katrina, a once category 5 that weakened by the time it made landfall, but still had very strong winds along with devastating surge that is higher than it would normally be due to the fact that it was once more violent.

Regardless of the case, what I'm saying doesn't make Camille less destructive, I'm just arguing that I don't see strong evidence that it produced category 5 winds at landfall, but it sure as heck produced category 5 surge. In the end, water always does more damage and kills more than wind anyway.


Good morning over there! I'm glad to see that Danny manages to get at least some drops on that thirsty Leeward Islands! Hopefully more to come with its eastern blob of convection.

Amid our severe drought in Germany we (Mainz) picked up 5 mm (0,2 inches) last night. Well, better than nothing.
Some interesting weather ahead of us today, here some snippets from Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment):
A level 2 was issued for Belgium, Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts. ...
SYNOPSIS: A vigorous low pressure system with sharp pressure gradients moves through the English Channel into the North Sea. Its strongest rising motions occur over N FRance, Belgium, Netherlands and NW Germany. A cold front should roughly be situated over NE France, Belgium and SW Netherlands by 12Z (GFS 18Z run), occluded and bending back to the center of the low via southern UK. The warm and especially humid airmass harbors 200-700 J/kg MLCAPE. Unstable airmasses also are found over southern Scandinavia (1000 J/kg), Germany and over N Italy (1000-2000 J/kg).



IR loop Western Europe.

Have a nice and successfull start into the new week, everyone!
Jed
Can you give a theory/reason for the blow up along the islands?
RIP Danny. When he finally broke free of the ITZ, he lost all his influx of moisture from the south.
Just my view point.
Danny is still hanging on...at least for another 10-16hrs... Dir Max and the usual increase in humidity is helping Danny Survive tonight...shear is angeled better N-S and down to 15Kts. If he can keep a West wind through Monday and into Tuesday and stay south of Hispaniola, he could have a chance to get better organized....but right now he's looking at a trough in 16hrs or so.

98L is really TD#5.... but as said earlier in the day..NHC will wait for convection near the LLC to persist and visable sat images. Should be classified by 11am (90%). Path of future TD5 should be west.... he will have more moisture to work with than Danny but shear might also hinder him as he gets towards the Lessar Antiilles in 3 days. His fast movement of 18-21mph will keep him more in check than anything.
Quoting 641. Jedkins01:



Still more than skeptical of those estimates, sure we don't use damage survey's to rate hurricanes, but if we rated wind damage using visual surveys from 0-5 for hurricanes, wind damages images from Camille from what I've seen aren't nearly as impressive as Andrew. If I see something else that suggests otherwise, sure, but it's greatest destruction appears mostly due to surge.

Now, that doesn't mean I'm saying it wasn't a devastating event by any means. In fact, the images from Camille look startlingly similar to Katrina, in that it appears the vast majority of the devastation images appear to be from surge. Camille's damage images to me appear to indicate a similar event to Katrina, a once category 5 that weakened by the time it made landfall, but still had very strong winds along with devastating surge that is higher than it would normally be due to the fact that it was once more violent.

Regardless of the case, what I'm saying doesn't make Camille less destructive, I'm just arguing that I don't see strong evidence that it produced category 5 winds at landfall, but it sure as heck produced category 5 surge. In the end, water always does more damage and kills more than wind anyway.


Minimum estimated winds at landfall for Camille were 175 mph how is that not a CAT 5 hurricane ??

were you there right after the storm did you see the damage ??
....I am the pilot of the Storm, if it gives me pleasure, I may drown'...


98L

98L is moving a lot of atmosphere around.

Quoting 631. wunderkidcayman:

Danny doing very good tonight LLCOC around 15.6N 59.8W give or take




Yeah appears to be doing a little better. Shear still a solid 20-25kt, and plenty of dry air to contend with ahead of it. But it is showing its a fighter. Shear doesn't show an appreciable drop off until about 67W (down to 10kt or so). But nice convection though right on top of its LLC.
Quoting 646. whitewabit:



Minimum estimated winds at landfall for Camille were 175 mph how is that not a CAT 5 hurricane ??

were you there right after the storm did you see the damage ??


Those of us who saw the aftermath of Camille, Know that stuff is a load of BS.

Anyone who compares wholesale calamity is not getting any respect nor audience here.

They pop in when they feel the need to Bloviate.

Jedkins01 Camille's pressure was reanalyzed at 900 mb at landfall and it was small in size, with an intense gradient. 175 mph seems reasonable.

Here is the complete reanalysis paper on Hurricane Camille by Margaret Kieper, Christopher Landsea and John Beven II.
Same here. Live East of Naples.

Quoting 618. Starhopper:


I was at ground zero Wilma (Marco) and in Andrew eyewall. Charley produced 90 mph winds at my locale.
Stay safe.
Quoting 641. Jedkins01:



Still more than skeptical of those estimates, sure we don't use damage survey's to rate hurricanes, but if we rated wind damage using visual surveys from 0-5 for hurricanes, wind damages images from Camille from what I've seen aren't nearly as impressive as Andrew. If I see something else that suggests otherwise, sure, but it's greatest destruction appears mostly due to surge.

Now, that doesn't mean I'm saying it wasn't a devastating event by any means. In fact, the images from Camille look startlingly similar to Katrina, in that it appears the vast majority of the devastation images appear to be from surge. Camille's damage images to me appear to indicate a similar event to Katrina, a once category 5 that weakened by the time it made landfall, but still had very strong winds along with devastating surge that is higher than it would normally be due to the fact that it was once more violent.

Regardless of the case, what I'm saying doesn't make Camille less destructive, I'm just arguing that I don't see strong evidence that it produced category 5 winds at landfall, but it sure as heck produced category 5 surge. In the end, water always does more damage and kills more than wind anyway.

Yep, I'm sold too: firmly believe Camille wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall after reading this article and just seeing the pictures.
checking in from Antigua. It's 1:26 am - Not much in the way of showers (as yet)
I believe the official reanalysis of Hurricane Camille. This paper was published 3 years after the extremeplanet article.
Damn, your and old fart like me. I guess your avatar is your actual pic.

Quoting 623. whitewabit:



Camille .. west side of Biloxi .. Keesler ..

200 MPH ..
I believe you folks real issue is with the SSS.

Camille produced a 24 ft Storm surge that went 6 miles inland.

Anyone who uses it to relate relative Storm Damage, esp surge is using it wrong.

It was designed for wind loading on Structures,....and dosen't relate large surges well at all.

So a Cat 3, at Landfall, K, produced the greatest damage ever seen in the US Cane History, but set the surge record.

See How dat does not werk?









Quoting 641. Jedkins01:



Still more than skeptical of those estimates, sure we don't use damage survey's to rate hurricanes, but if we rated wind damage using visual surveys from 0-5 for hurricanes, wind damages images from Camille from what I've seen aren't nearly as impressive as Andrew. If I see something else that suggests otherwise, sure, but it's greatest destruction appears mostly due to surge.

Now, that doesn't mean I'm saying it wasn't a devastating event by any means. In fact, the images from Camille look startlingly similar to Katrina, in that it appears the vast majority of the devastation images appear to be from surge. Camille's damage images to me appear to indicate a similar event to Katrina, a once category 5 that weakened by the time it made landfall, but still had very strong winds along with devastating surge that is higher than it would normally be due to the fact that it was once more violent.

Regardless of the case, what I'm saying doesn't make Camille less destructive, I'm just arguing that I don't see strong evidence that it produced category 5 winds at landfall, but it sure as heck produced category 5 surge. In the end, water always does more damage and kills more than wind anyway.


What would you say about Andrews damage? my uncle had his entire house flattened and nearly lost his life underneath the rubble. Also, he had a swing set in the backyard for his kids and three weeks later someone called about 5 to 10 miles away saying the swing set had been found. pretty remarkable
...hmm, instead of being insanly  destructive, the hurricane may have only been crazy destructive.  Take a hair and split it...
Quoting 656. swflurker:

Damn, your and old fart like me. I guess your avatar is your actual pic.




I always thought his profile pic was the guy from mythbusters.
Quoting 645. scottsvb:

Danny is still hanging on...at least for another 10-16hrs... Dir Max and the usual increase in humidity is helping Danny Survive tonight...shear is angeled better N-S and down to 15Kts. If he can keep a West wind through Monday and into Tuesday and stay south of Hispaniola, he could have a chance to get better organized....but right now he's looking at a trough in 16hrs or so.

98L is really TD#5.... but as said earlier in the day..NHC will wait for convection near the LLC to persist and visable sat images. Should be classified by 11am (90%). Path of future TD5 should be west.... he will have more moisture to work with than Danny but shear might also hinder him as he gets towards the Lessar Antiilles in 3 days. His fast movement of 18-21mph will keep him more in check than anything.


Agreed. Danny certainly helped "prime the pump" so to speak, by moistening the airmass in his wake.
662. FOREX
So is the latest with 98 that the ridge will not be strong enough and therefore 98 will most likely be going OTS?
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become show signs of
organization this morning in association with a low pressure system
located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands. The
low is gradually becoming better defined and environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form later today or on Tuesday while the system
moves westward at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Now that is bring a lot of moisture along with it. Could be a good one! Still connected to the ITZ, though.


Quoting 647. Patrap:

....I am the pilot of the Storm, if it gives me pleasure, I may drown'...


98L


98L is my new favorite storm


Link

Nice radar loop out of Guadeloupe/Martinique
669. FOREX
Quoting 666. ATLsweather:

98L is my new favorite storm

Might be a fish, time will tell.
Quoting 650. Patrap:



Those of us who saw the aftermath of Camille, Know that stuff is a load of BS.

Anyone who compares wholesale calamity is not getting any respect nor audience here.

They pop in when they feel the need to Bloviate.




Most people just look at damages from Hurricanes at landfall. The aftermath of Camille was extensive from landfall to hundreds of miles inland. The state of Virginia lost just as many if not more lives from Camille than the land falling areas. The remnants of Camille reached Virginia and exploded into torrential rain as much as 27 to 37 inches in 6 hours. Well over a hundred people lost there lives in flash floods in Virginia and countless property damage. These weather events kill many but also scare the living for life. So when some people are concerned about a storm that might sound trivial to you many have witnessed the horror of a storm first hand. I myself have those memories that will haunt me forever.
98L is on the verge of becoming td 5.
Quoting 668. CaribBoy:



your dream come tru
Quoting 670. frank727:



Most people just look at damages from Hurricanes at landfall. The aftermath of Camille was extensive from landfall to hundreds of miles inland. The state of Virginia lost just as many if not more lives from Camille than the land falling areas. The remnants of Camille reached Virginia and exploded into torrential rain as much as 27 to 37 inches in 6 hours. Well over a hundred people lost there lives in flash floods in Virginia and countless property damage. These weather events kill many but also scare the living for life. So when some people are concerned about a storm that might sound trivial to you many have witnessed the horror of a storm first hand. I myself have those memories that will haunt me forever.


I think I have PTSD from it .. for years I couldn't understand why I got depressed the middle of August every year .. till I finally put it together .. that date keeps popping up in my life too .. even here .. my born on date is August 17 !!

No, this isn't Danny or 98L, it's large sunspot 2403 which is currently earth directed and bears the threat of strong flares (M and even X). Those could hamper satellite transmissions. This just in case ...
More: Spaceweather, Solarham (source of the pic), NOAA.
Quoting 658. chrisdscane:



What would you say about Andrews damage? my uncle had his entire house flattened and nearly lost his life underneath the rubble. Also, he had a swing set in the backyard for his kids and three weeks later someone called about 5 to 10 miles away saying the swing set had been found. pretty remarkable

Right after Katrina passed, the media said New Orleans had dodged a bullet. Then the levy broke. I can't imagine wind damage being that bad....winds were gusting at 80 something sporadically if I recall correctly...I remember after Wilma..there were parts of SFL that looked like the pictures from the 1926 hurricane....in pockets, only....and in looking at those pictures and surveying Wilma's damage, you really could see a resemblance...'26 being significantly worse, but Wilma comparable in certain locations. Can't say how many times I regret not taking more photos right after Wilma...but I did upload about 25 here shortly after the storm (that all somehow went missing....never followed up on how that could have happened).
Of course, no one has ever seen the likes of Andrew's wind damage...it was tornadic.
#dominica pretty intense thunderstorm right now.. was rainiing cats and dogs for the past 2 hours. Rain has died down, just the thunder and lightning... 0 wind thus far
Quoting 675. miamivu:


Right after Katrina passed, the media said New Orleans had dodged a bullet. Then the levy broke. I can't imagine wind damage being that bad....winds were gusting at 80 something sporadically if I recall correctly...I remember after Wilma..there were parts of SFL that looked like the pictures from the 1926 hurricane....in pockets, only....and in looking at those pictures and surveying Wilma's damage, you really could see a resemblance...'26 being significantly worse, but Wilma comparable in certain locations. Can't say how many times I regret not taking more photos right after Wilma...but I did upload about 25 here shortly after the storm (that all somehow went missing....never followed up on how that could have happened).
Of course, no one has ever seen the likes of Andrew's wind damage...it was tornadic.


I've heard that much of Andrew's damage was caused by embedded tornadoes, but I'm not sure if it is true or not.
I went back and forth debating this over a year ago on the blog using the evidence from that extremeplanet article, it's all there if you want to see the reasoning for this view. And it should be emphasized that because some people believe it wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, this does not mean it is being made out to be less destructive and deadly than it was.
Quoting 673. whitewabit:



I think I have PTSD from it .. for years I couldn't understand why I got depressed the middle of August every year .. till I finally put it together .. that date keeps popping up in my life too .. even here .. my born on date is August 17 !!


Amen brother I completely understand.
Quoting 673. whitewabit:



I think I have PTSD from it .. for years I couldn't understand why I got depressed the middle of August every year .. till I finally put it together .. that date keeps popping up in my life too .. even here .. my born on date is August 17 !!

wow couldnt begin to even compare.
A friend just showed me this from storm2k. Presumably from a random nobody, since no actual met would say that:

"Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird."

This is the stupidest thing I've read in awhile. Literally. And I come across a LOT of stupid stuff.

Does nobody stop to think before posting drivel like this? It's one of the reasons I barely come here anymore. A lot of the more impatient/less knowledgeable people here would probably actually agree with him. For those that wouldn't, you know who you are.

One thing that bothers me a lot is stupid people looking smart. I almost want the major hurricane drought to end just because of THAT.
Quoting 681. KoritheMan:

A friend just showed me this from storm2k. Presumably from a random nobody, since no actual met would say that:

"Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird."

This is the stupidest thing I've read in awhile. Literally. And I come across a LOT of stupid stuff.

Does nobody stop to think before posting drivel like this? It's one of the reasons I barely come here anymore. A lot of the more impatient/less knowledgeable people here would probably actually agree with him. For those that wouldn't, you know who you are.


Nevermind the fact that Ike, Sandy, Gustav, Irene, etc. have occurred within the last 10 years. That statement you mention is complete nonsense...and that's being kind. I can't believe anyone would actually say that.


DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150824 0545 13.5 40.6 T1.5/1.5 98L 98L
20150823 2345 13.6 39.2 T1.0/1.0 98L 98L

XNT25 KNES 240608
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 24/0545Z

C. 13.5N

D. 40.6W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI


maybe a t.d soon

Quoting 685. hurricanes2018:


This deserves to be TD5.

Danny: Saved current radar images for those who are sleeping right now.

688. MahFL
Quoting 677. FunnelVortex:



I've heard that much of Andrew's damage was caused by embedded tornadoes, but I'm not sure if it is true or not.


Also the building codes were changed after Andrew, most houses built before Andrew did not eg have tied down roof beams, so a lot of roofs blew off, not just near the eye but away from the eye too.
689. MahFL
Almost filled the gap in now :

690. MahFL
The far east wave is completely embedded in moist air :


Quoting 681. KoritheMan:

A friend just showed me this from storm2k. Presumably from a random nobody, since no actual met would say that:

"Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird."

This is the stupidest thing I've read in awhile. Literally. And I come across a LOT of stupid stuff.

Does nobody stop to think before posting drivel like this? It's one of the reasons I barely come here anymore. A lot of the more impatient/less knowledgeable people here would probably actually agree with him. For those that wouldn't, you know who you are.

One thing that bothers me a lot is stupid people looking smart. I almost want the major hurricane drought to end just because of THAT.
Link
Please like and share my page on Facebook. Thanks.
This had to be a depression, I've seen worse things before.



Hardly on it's way out ,,,for the moment.

98L is steamrolling the SAL lol. Danny in less dry air soon? Stuff coming from behind fast though.
Continuing a thread from yesterday--Dominica was made a part of Britain's Leeward Islands colony in 1832, and was transferred to the British Windward Islands colony in 1940. Source 1. Source 2.
I have a hard time finding showers moving from west to east on the south side of Danny. I'm not sure Danny is a closed circulation.
Danny is absolutely incredible he did the smartest thing possible in that position slow down and stack right back up. Trade winds and shear is what decpuple d him but the worse is now behind him. He may hang south of the Islands before getting pulled NW. I told y'all he might be trying to pull a fast one on everyone.
700. ryang
yellow model making wunderkid proud

704. FOREX
Quoting 703. serialteg:

yellow model making wunderkid proud




He may be owed thousands of sincere apologies.
a bunch of characters said he died yesterday. they were wrong. losers this time. next obstacle is hispanoloa .
706. FOREX
Quoting 703. serialteg:

yellow model making wunderkid proud




On a serious note, in the condition Danny is in right now, what are his chances of not only survival over the next 7 days but regrouping to TS status or better and threatening land mass somewhere?
Mid-level dry air with humidity values decreasing to less than 40 percent should also
enhance the weakening process.

That's from the 5 am discussion and that makes me think Danny will be completely dead. with no return.
Good Morning
709. MahFL
You show em Danny :

"However, due to a strong
burst of deep convection containing tops of -80 deg C and intense
lightning activity that has developed near the alleged center, the
aircraft has been unable to provide an exact center fix."
I have to admit GFS was spot on last week when it took a southern solution versus GFDL among others who took a strong northern solution for Danny. Now it may become a GOM issue.
711. FOREX
Quoting 707. TheBigBanana:

Mid-level dry air with humidity values decreasing to less than 40 percent should also
enhance the weakening process.

That's from the 5 am discussion and that makes me think Danny will be completely dead. with no return.
Higher humidity in Canada.

Quoting 703. serialteg:

yellow model making wunderkid proud


LMAO  not only apology's but the Wonder Kid should be named "Wonderground Forecaster Of The Month". They so ganged up on him. 
Quoting 705. islander101010:

a bunch of characters said he died yesterday. they were wrong. losers this time. next obstacle is hispanoloa .


He died yesterday. This no longer resembles a tropical cyclone on satellite.

Morning, looks like Danny has become a blob.
98L looking good.
98 in no hurry to develop another area in the mid latitudes around 45w looks interesting
Quoting 715. islander101010:

98 in no hurry to develop


The longer it takes to develop the likely the chances of it affecting the Caribbean.
98L, on the other hand, is probably a tropical cyclone. A well defined spin on satellite and generating consistent deep thunderstorms.

danny is alive nhc are the umpires.
719. FOREX
Quoting 713. CybrTeddy:



He died yesterday. This no longer resembles a tropical cyclone on satellite.


Sort of looks like a tropical depression we see just coming off Africa and we are waiting for designation on.
720. FOREX
Quoting 717. CybrTeddy:

98L, on the other hand, is probably a tropical cyclone. A well defined spin on satellite and generating consistent deep thunderstorms.


NHC is so conservative these days, they might wait till 5pm to call it.
ASCAT of 98L @0021Z:

722. FOREX
Quoting 712. floridaT:


LMAO  not only apology's but the Wonder Kid should be named "Wonderground Forecaster Of The Month". They so ganged up on him. 



As soon as WKC is named WU forecaster of the Season, Danny will stall and begin to move East.
Danny visible



98L visible

Good morning guys how are all you doing this morning

Btw I know some of you might be a bit surprised this morning but yes convection did redevelop and Danny is still alive

Now in terms of forecast well models are starting to somewhat agree on movement but I terms of intensity forecast I do have to disagree I think intensity values will be higher more so later down the road I can see Danny sustaining TS or atleast weakening to a TD then back up to TS I don't see Danny returning to hurricane intensity at this time maybe 55-60 at best but Danny will need to work hard and stay off land
i dont think any storm has a chance to strengthen much in the caribbean for a while. it may have decreased some...but not enough. even the shear in the gom has picked up some in the last weeks. i think the majority of best conditions in the w atlantic will be near the bahamas and off the ec for the rest of the season. ofcourse it would only take one storm to time just right in the gom to have problems.
Quoting 717. CybrTeddy:

98L, on the other hand, is probably a tropical cyclone. A well defined spin on satellite and generating consistent deep thunderstorms.




Hopefully next ASCAT pass of that region will catch it, but for now, it might visibly look like a TC but is not quite there yet. For now, it appears to me that it has a couple extra areas LLC that it has to get rid off before the main one takes over. I believe that better 5PM and 11PM it might be designated or before if ASCAT and/or other tools at NHC disposal reveals it has high enough winds associated to it for a TD or TS.
A Monday Morning Poem

From across the Atlantic he sped.
"He's a beast!" some excitedly said.
But, alas, they're now crying,
For Danny is dying--
And this time tomorrow, he's dead...

And when Danny is finally deceased,
They'll revert back to watching the east.
They'll obsess, and they'll dwell,
And, in unison, yell,
"Little 98L is a beast!"

More experienced people will mentor,
Suggesting that newbies who enter
The forum should gird
With the wisdom and word
Of the National Hurricane Center.

But some egos will dare to suggest
That the NHC's skills aren't the best.
"Education?! Degrees?!
Their experience?! Please!!!
Only I can predict the Invest!"

They will ridicule experts, and they
Will say, "Folks, don't believe what they say!!"
They'll talk nonsense and twaddle,
Highlighting *the* model
With 98 coming their way.

But for people who've long been about,
There's an adage they're eager to tout:
Keep it silent, and you'll
Maybe *seem* like a fool;
Once you've talked, you've removed all the doubt.
invest 98L need to be watch no high wind shear with this storm at all for the next five days
Link

HEllo according to the image seems a tropical storm 98L 997.8 HPA
*slow clap*

Quoting 727. Neapolitan:

A Monday Morning Poem

From across the Atlantic he sped.
"He's a beast!" some excitedly said.
But, alas, they're now crying,
For Danny is dying--
And this time tomorrow, he's dead...

And when Danny is finally deceased,
They'll revert back to watching the east.
They'll obsess, and they'll dwell,
And, in unison, yell,
"Little 98L is a beast!"

More experienced people will mentor,
Suggesting that newbies who enter
The forum should gird
With the wisdom and word
Of the National Hurricane Center.

But some egos will dare to suggest
That the NHC's skills aren't the best.
"Education?! Degrees?!
Their experience?! Please!!!
Only I can predict the Invest!"

They will ridicule experts, and they
Will say, "Folks, don't believe what they say!!"
They'll talk nonsense and twaddle,
Highlighting *the* model
With 98 coming their way.

But for people who've long been about,
There's an adage they're eager to tout:
Keep it silent, and you'll
Maybe *seem* like a fool;
Once you've talked, you've removed all the doubt.
check a few posts down, u will see... wxlogic posted it.

Quoting 726. WxLogic:



Hopefully next ASCAT pass of that region will catch it
so many characters that terminated Danny 12 hrs ago you are going to need to throw it in stew.
What I find interesting is the recon flight it seems like NOAA recon can't seem to find the Center but USAFR recon ends up finding it and a well defined one too

And what I'm talking about guys is the recon missions yesterday evening and last night
First up NOAAs P-3 hurricane hunter had a hard time finding a closed low and flight went home thinking it's probably a rem low at that time then
Second mission USAFR C-130 hurricane hunter easily found a well defined LLCOC every pass so 3 clear VORTEX mission

Then there was the NOAAs P-3 mission that just finished they didn't find the Center but not really their fault head convection got in the way and they didn't want to risk so says NHC but anyway overall recon shows there is still some spin there likely if they would have taken the risk they might have found it

Current the next recon mission is in the air and on the way USAFR C-130
They are probably gonna find it again IMO
That if the LLCOC is still there
I think it is IMO



goodbye danny!!
Lol, good way to start the day, Nea :)

98L is likely a TD, as long as there's a closed circulation. Once again, most global models keep it weak, at least in the next several days, while the hurricane models are more bullish.

Quoting 729. Claudette1234:

Link

HEllo according to the image seems a tropical storm 98L 997.8 HPA


Yeah hardly ever use it so meh

But meh 98L likely a TD maybe a weak TS
danny looks pathetic this morning. he looks like an open wave on visible satellite. recon even find a llc?
738. FOREX
Quoting 733. wunderkidcayman:

What I find interesting is the recon flight it seems like NOAA recon can't seem to find the Center but USAFR recon ends up finding it and a well defined one too

And what I'm talking about guys is the recon missions yesterday evening and last night
First up NOAAs P-3 hurricane hunter had a hard time finding a closed low and flight went home thinking it's probably a rem low at that time then
Second mission USAFR C-130 hurricane hunter easily found a well defined LLCOC every pass so 3 clear VORTEX mission

Then there was the NOAAs P-3 mission that just finished they didn't find the Center but not really their fault head convection got in the way and they didn't want to risk so says NHC but anyway overall recon shows there is still some spin there likely if they would have taken the risk they might have found it

Current the next recon mission is in the air and on the way USAFR C-130
They are probably gonna find it again IMO
That if the LLCOC is still there
I think it is IMO
As much as I would like to see Danny defy the odds, I can't believe they are going to waste another who knows how many millions of more dollars flying into him today.
Quoting 732. islander101010:

so many characters that terminated Danny 12 hrs ago you are going to need to throw it in stew.


Maybe crow stew
WARNING!!

TXNT25 KNES 240608
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 24/0545Z

C. 13.5N

D. 40.6W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
USAFR Recon almost there
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150824 0545 13.5 40.6 T1.5/1.5 98L 98L
20150823 2345 13.6 39.2 T1.0/1.0 98L 98L


744. beell
98L can be somewhat resolved in the low-mid levels by the 06Z GFS into.....the northeastern GOM after following a path similar to Danny through the Caribbean.

A much later recurve than earlier runs.
CybrTed said it best... yes, Danny developed some convection once again last night, likely diurnally enhanced. However, there are no signs of any organization with this convection, no banding or centralization. It no longer resembles a tropical cyclone. Looks like at least some rain for the northern Leewards though.

Good morning, Antigua and Barbuda no longer under tropical storm warning. Numerous showers still in the forecast from TS Danny. Yes, Danny has slowed down a bit. Just wondering if he's trying to pull another fast one on us
748. FOREX
Quoting 744. beell:

98L can be somewhat resolved in the low-mid levels by the 06Z GFS into.....the northeastern GOM after following a path similar to Danny through the Caribbean.

A much later recurve than earlier runs.


Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmm.
749. FOREX
Quoting 746. wadadlian:

Good morning, Antigua and Barbuda no longer under tropical storm warning. Numerous showers still in the forecast from TS Danny. Yes, Danny has slowed down a bit. Just wondering if he's trying to pull another fast one on us

Someone earlier posted that NHC discussion stated that very dry air/low RH values ahead of Danny will kill him off eventually no matter what he does the next couple of days. That is why I was wondering why the waste of millions of dollars flying into him this morning. No wonder we are 20 trillion dollars indebt and climbing.
Quoting 738. FOREX:

As much as I would like to see Danny defy the odds, I can't believe they are going to waste another who knows how many millions of more dollars flying into him today.
Quoting 749. FOREX:

That is why I was wondering why the waste of millions of dollars flying into him this morning.
I don't believe it costs millions of dollars to fly a single recon mission; a few tens of thousands is more likely. The Hurricane Hunters budget for the entire year is only a couple tens of millions of dollars--equivalent to a rounding error on a few hours of the Pentagon's annual budget--and that's split between airplane and equipment maintenance and storage, salaries, fuel, dropsondes, and so on, and so forth. Considering the ramifications of them *not* flying into a system that's potentially threatening, the only wasteful thing would be *not* flying.

Quoting 749. FOREX:

No wonder we are 20 trillion dollars indebt and climbing.
Well, we're not. But that's a subject for a different forum...


the models are not saying anything about invest 98L YET
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AS OF 24/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF DOMINICA AND ABOUT 100 NM E-SE OF
GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W
NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting 703. serialteg:

yellow model making wunderkid proud


If Dan makes it into the Western Caribbean, it may make him roofless...:)
HWRF on 98L at 126 hours

756. FOREX
Quoting 754. TheBigBanana:

HWRF on 98L at 126 hours




Is that looking a lot more north that the latest GFS?
757. MahFL
Quoting 727. Neapolitan:

A Monday Morning Poem

From across the Atlantic he sped.


The first line of your poem is incorrect, Danny is a slow mover.
758. FOREX
Looks like the GFS is way off on 98 compared to the other models this morning. GFS has 98 feeling the ridge, the others do not.
The ECMWF brings 98L near the Turks and Caicos and then up and out.
760. FOREX
Quoting 759. TheBigBanana:

The ECMWF brings 98L near the Turks and Caicos and then up and out.
Models have been consistent with 98 taking a northern turn.
761. beell
Quoting 754. TheBigBanana:

HWRF on 98L at 126 hours




Don't mind me! Playing the role of seagull forecaster this morning. You know the type. Fly in, crap all over everything and fly out!
Quoting 757. MahFL:



The first line of your poem is incorrect, Danny is a slow mover.


Oh for heaven's sake, it's poetic license!
Quoting 704. FOREX:



He may be owed thousands of sincere apologies.
No maybe about it.
Quoting 754. TheBigBanana:

HWRF on 98L at 126 hours




That ridge would be strong enough to steer 98L to the southeast coast. Out to sea is not the only solution.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite data overnight that the circulation of the slow-moving low
pressure area located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming
better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
this system has also become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for continued
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the low begins to move slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


973mb is a cat 2 hurricane
The ECMWF brings 98L near the Turks and Caicos and up the east coast on the next run!!
Quoting 754. TheBigBanana:

HWRF on 98L at 126 hours


wow
Quoting 716. WxLogic:



The longer it takes to develop the likely the chances of it affecting the Caribbean.


I have $400 in chase money, sooo...
Quoting 764. reedzone:



That ridge would be strong enough to steer 98L to the southeast coast. Out to sea is not the only solution.


Out to sea is a likely solution based on climatology. Most storms north of the islands or ones that just barely scrape the northeast Caribbean recurve.

Wouldn't mind a little deviance, though.
No the ECMWF does not bring it up the east coast!

168 hours



216 hours



240 hours

Quoting 770. KoritheMan:



I have $400 in chase money, sooo...


LOL!!!
Danny is now a tropical depression.

8:00 AM AST Mon Aug 24
Location: 15.9N 61.5W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting 712. floridaT:


LMAO  not only apology's but the Wonder Kid should be named "Wonderground Forecaster Of The Month". They so ganged up on him. 



Saying this as respectfully as I can because I DO like cayman - but from what I know of him that's not what I'd call a successful forecast.

I can forecast every storm to head into Louisiana too and eventually I'll be right. It doesn't mean I made a good forecast.

I'm not trying to misconstrue him. If I'm wrong and he did in fact do more than I'm crediting him for here, I'll be the first to apologize. I promise you that.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
778. FOREX
Quoting 773. TheBigBanana:

No the ECMWF does not bring it up the east coast!

168 hours



216 hours



240 hours


So Turks n Caicos and Bermuda then OTS. That's what I figured.
779. FOREX
Tropical Depression Danny: 8 AM ET, 35 mph winds, 1009 mb, moving at 12 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6
780. SLU


8:00 AM AST Mon Aug 24
Location: 15.9°N 61.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
23 years ago this morning....Remember it all too well...

You have to give credit to the GFS concerning Danny. It depicted Danny as a low rider into the carib and becoming a remnant low. I have new respect for it; however, if it traverses into GOM it can become a problem.
Tropical Depression DANNY
8:00 AM AST Mon Aug 24 2015
Location: 15.9°N 61.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

slowing down!!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
800 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

...DANNY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 61.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch for St. Maarten is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 61.5 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Danny will continue to move across
the southern Leeward Islands later this morning, and move into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea later today.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Danny is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
Good Morning Folks. Danny has been downgraded to a depression but you still have to keep an eye on the remnants. In terms of 98L behind former Danny, this actually qualifies as a typical Cape Verde storm cluster; it is that time of the year.

Here is the current shear levels as to both systems: 98L has an anti-cyclone overhead (which will favor a TS later today or this evening) and ex-Danny headed into some moderate shear which should keep him in check. Best case scenario for PR which needs drought relief.


Hmm down to TD

What will Danny do redevelop/restrengthen or stay weak and dissipate

I think restrengthen possible

Anyway recon getting interesting
Nice RAMMB shots with both systems in the picture:




Quoting 761. beell:



Don't mind me! Playing the role of seagull forecaster this morning. You know the type. Fly in, crap all over everything and fly out!


Don't slip on my peel, beell! ;)
98L is the one to watch in the Atlantic; if it follows the weakness left behind Danny in and makes TS status coming into the Caribbean, it could be bigger trouble downstream for the Greater Antilles:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Danny, located near the Leeward
Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Quoting 776. KoritheMan:



Saying this as respectfully as I can because I DO like cayman - but from what I know of him that's not what I'd call a successful forecast.

I can forecast every storm to head into Louisiana too and eventually I'll be right. It doesn't mean I made a good forecast.

I'm not trying to misconstrue him. If I'm wrong and he did in fact do more than I'm crediting him for here, I'll be the first to apologize. I promise you that.


Good Morning all..

Sorry but I dont agree..when 95L didnt go west it was stated on this blog that he should be called out because he was wrong and thats what any good forecaster would do and "here here" was shouted in agreement..

but now that he is right he shouldn't get credit?

I thought it was petty anyway to call him out then but I have not seen him to do the same to those who dragged him on this blog for Danny which says a lot about him..

A lot of people owe him an apology by constantly quoting him and ridiculing him and even those that plussed those comments..The "community" owes that man an apology..no sliding this under the rug..

I even thought Danny would go north of the Islands but I never ridicule him in his reasoning in stating it would go west..

We'll see who will be the better better person today..

Good job WKC..

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

TD 5 at 11am


invest 98L SPIN
Quoting 790. weathermanwannabe:

98L is the one to watch in the Atlantic; if it follows the weakness left behind Danny in and makes TS status coming into the Caribbean, it could be bigger trouble downstream for the Greater Antilles:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Danny, located near the Leeward
Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent



Agreed
And finally, notwithstanding the current Atlantic systems, the Pacific and E-Pac are both having incredible El Nino numbers and storms:









high over invest 98L WATCH OUT!
Quoting 791. ncstorm:



Good Morning all..

Sorry but I dont agree..when 95L didnt go west it was stated on this blog that he should be called out because he was wrong and thats what any good forecaster would do and "here here" was shouted in agreement..

but now that he is right he shouldn't get credit?

I thought it was petty anyway to call him out then but I have not seen him to do the same to those who dragged him on this blog for Danny which says a lot about him..

A lot of people owe him an apology by constantly quoting him and ridiculing him and even those that plussed those comments..The "community" owes that man an apology..no sliding this under the rug..

I even thought Danny would go north of the Islands but I never ridicule him in his reasoning in stating it would go west..

We'll see who will be the better better person today..

Good job WKC..


Many here knew that if the the hurricane weakened , the storm would enter the Caribbean. His forecast is enjoyed by many.
Quoting 795. weathermanwannabe:

And finally, notwithstanding the current Atlantic systems, the Pacific and E-Pac are both having incredible El Nino numbers and storms:










the E PAC is not haveing incredible # of name storms this year the E PAC is haveing a slower season then last year E PAC is not haveing a 2014 repet


now the W PAC has really been on fire so has the C PAC
Quoting 791. ncstorm:



Good Morning all..

Sorry but I dont agree..when 95L didnt go west it was stated on this blog that he should be called out because he was wrong and thats what any good forecaster would do and "here here" was shouted in agreement..

but now that he is right he shouldn't get credit?

I thought it was petty anyway to call him out then but I have not seen him to do the same to those who dragged him on this blog for Danny which says a lot about him..

A lot of people owe him an apology by constantly quoting him and ridiculing him and even those that plussed those comments..The "community" owes that man an apology..no sliding this under the rug..

I even thought Danny would go north of the Islands but I never ridicule him in his reasoning in stating it would go west..

We'll see who will be the better better person today..

Good job WKC..




Thanks mate
End of tight focus HWRF run. 966.6 millibars.

Danny is still a depression..a tropical cyclone..

so unfortunately the nails will have to be put away until a later time..

The grave digger has to be annoyed at being called to dig a grave every afternoon to have nothing to put in the hole..

Work calls..Later..
803. MahFL
Quoting 790. weathermanwannabe:

98L is the one to watch in the Atlantic; if it follows the weakness left behind Danny in and makes TS status coming into the Caribbean...


What weakness ?
Quoting 766. hurricanes2018:


973mb is a cat 2 hurricane


I hope there will be a weakness in the ridge that will force that storm northward.

But it does look like future Erica will impact the islands-including the Bahamas.
The GFDL is not as strong and a bit to the northeast of the HWRF

As to 98L, it has an anti-cyclone overhead, a TUTT free window up to the Antilles, and the ability to push back some of the SAL ahead of it because of the size going into the Caribbean: Notice that the SAL is moving in tandem to the West (behind Danny) so SAL will not be a huge issue for 98L.

The biggest issue is the current speed of 20 mph............Once/If 98L slows down to 12-15 mph, vertical stacking should not be a problem.





807. FOREX
Quoting 801. TheBigBanana:

End of tight focus HWRF run. 966.6 millibars.


Low chance of 98 being a Gulf system at this point.
the GFS really loves Hawaii aroud the 300hr mark and it has not drop that idea
A Tremendous amount of rain on tap for the FL Penisula this week. Reason for this is a strong cold front stalling over C FL. Yes cold front infact the FL panhandle has a taste of Fall coming. lows in the upper 50's to 60's!

And the CMC, has 98L quite a bit further northeast of the GFDL.

The CMC has 98L hit Bermuda

Big spread n the models at present at to 98L from Florida to a fish:

And two days later gives Newfoundland a nasty hit.

Quoting 812. weathermanwannabe:

Big spread n the models at present at to 98L from Florida to a fish:




if it hits land like Bermuda its not a fish or any where else
816. FOREX
Quoting 812. weathermanwannabe:

Big spread n the models at present at to 98L from Florida to a fish:




I say Fish.

Recon fines a little less defined LLCOC likely due to land interaction with Guadeloupe to the N and Dominica to the S

If Danny can make it through the island and into the E Caribbean LLCOC can reorganise so keen an eye on that
What is the possibility of Danny regenerating back into a ts in the Caribbean?



It will all depend on where reaches TD/TS designation; the earlier the better chance of the Eastern edge of the current model guidance and the later, the the better chance of the center or Western edge...........Too early to know at this point until we can initialize an actual storm..........We should have a better picture of where 98L is headed by Wednesday.
Quoting 812. weathermanwannabe:

Big spread n the models at present at to 98L from Florida to a fish:




I remember when models thought Danny could be a fish well so much for that
Nino 3.4 up to 2.1C. Same value back on this date in 1997.
822. SLU
No west winds. Say hello to tropical wave Danny.

Quoting 811. TheBigBanana:

The CMC has 98L hit Bermuda


Good morning BB..Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes cannot get a break...The have been getting nailed quite regular.
Quoting 817. wunderkidcayman:

Recon fines a little less defined LLCOC likely due to land interaction with Guadeloupe to the N and Dominica to the S

If Danny can make it through the island and into the E Caribbean LLCOC can reorganise so keen an eye on that


Never mind looks like RECON just found a nice tight LLCOC now in the E Caribbean Sea WSW of Guadeloupe and WNW of Dominica

If your in FL and want to cool off then go to Tallahassee west as lows in the 60's to even some upper 50's in rural areas expected Wednesday Night. Also likely marks the end of the wet season from Tallahassee west.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 818. GPTGUY:

What is the possibility of Danny regenerating back into a ts in the Caribbean?






I'd say moderate probability at this time
if 98L hits Bermuda Newfoundland or else where its not a fish
Quoting 809. StormTrackerScott:

A Tremendous amount of rain on tap for the FL Penisula this week. Reason for this is a strong cold front stalling over C FL. Yes cold front infact the FL panhandle has a taste of Fall coming. lows in the upper 50's to 60's!




I'm in the Panhandle and the forecast doesn't have a forecast low any lower than 67 so not that cool, not for us close to the water at least. It will feel better than it has been.
Quoting 791. ncstorm:



Good Morning all..

Sorry but I dont agree..when 95L didnt go west it was stated on this blog that he should be called out because he was wrong and thats what any good forecaster would do and "here here" was shouted in agreement..

but now that he is right he shouldn't get credit?

I thought it was petty anyway to call him out then but I have not seen him to do the same to those who dragged him on this blog for Danny which says a lot about him..

A lot of people owe him an apology by constantly quoting him and ridiculing him and even those that plussed those comments..The "community" owes that man an apology..no sliding this under the rug..

I even thought Danny would go north of the Islands but I never ridicule him in his reasoning in stating it would go west..

We'll see who will be the better better person today..

Good job WKC..




Well said and I agree 100%. He has taken so much beating over the past few days, but he was right. Nice job WKC!!!