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Tropical Storm Danny not impressive yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny is here, born from an African tropical wave that developed a closed circulation and some respectable heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. Data between 2 - 3 pm EDT from the Hurricane Hunters indicates the Danny has a central pressure of 1009 mb, and top surface winds of about 45 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Danny's circulation has gotten stretched and pulled away from the heaviest thunderstorm activity on the storm's east side. It is possible that Danny's center will reform at a different location, closer to the heaviest thunderstorms, so the model forecasts probably have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual at present. Wind shear has dropped to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. The upper-level low Danny is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and this dry air is intruding into Danny's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side.


Figure 1. Oceanic heat content for August 25, 2009. Regions where the Sea Surface Temperature is below 80°F, or where the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf lie, do not have enough heat content to be plotted, and are shown in white colors. The oceanic heat content along the track of Tropical Storm Danny is below the threshold of 90 kJ/cm^2 typically seen with cases of rapid intensification. The storm position at 8am EDT today is given by the hurricane symbol with the "0" inside it. Subsequent hurricane symbols show the official NHC forecast points from the 11 am EDT forecast today, for 8am Thursday (24 hours), 8am Friday (48 hours), 8am Saturday (72 hours), and 8am Sunday (72 hours). The cold waters stirred up by Hurricane Bill last week will not impact Tropical Storm Danny. Image credit: RSMAS, University of Miami.

The forecast for Danny
As Danny continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, but will dump dry air into the storm through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when Danny should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that Danny will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Ocean heat content (Figure 1) is high enough to support a hurricane, until Danny gets to about New Jersey's latitude. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that Danny will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn Danny to the north, then northeast on Saturday. The models have come into better agreement keeping Danny offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As Danny passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a landfall likely Saturday afternoon or evening somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, Danny is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. The latest runs of the GFDL and GFS model have Danny tracking directly over Martha's Vineyard, where President Obama is on vacation. It will be interesting to see if the president stays on the island for Danny.

For those of you wondering about specific probabilities of getting tropical storm force or hurricane force winds, consult the NHC Wind Probability Product.


Figure 2. Tropical wave newly emerged from the coast of Africa, with some potential for development.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A well-organized tropical wave has exited the coast of Africa, and lies a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands. None of the models are gung-ho about developing this wave, but shear is low, 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect some slow development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon.

I'll have an update Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Seastep
Quoting AussieStorm:

the words "fish storm" mean's a non-land falling TD TS or Hurricane. If Danny made land fall in Canada it wouldn't be a fish storm.


Disagree. Fish = only affects fish.

For the most part. i.e., no major issues for non-fish.

According to forecasts, not a fish atm.

Post 983 is a good example, and that is without it going left of that.

Bedtime for me, too.
hello everyone!
good evening, its been fairly quiet tonight on here
1004. juslivn
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6-8.



Hello to all: earlier some were saying another area could develop in the caribbean or ? Is there something really there that has potential to develop? It was mentioned a few times.
Quoting Seastep:


Disagree. Fish = only affects fish.

For the most part. i.e., no major issues for non-fish.

According to forecasts, not a fish atm.

Post 983 is a good example, and that is without it going left of that.

Bedtime for me, too.
I'll repeat...................
The words "fish storm" mean's a non-land falling TD TS or Hurricane i.e Effects fish only. If Danny made land fall in Canada it wouldn't be a fish storm(even if people here have a disliking for Canada).
1006. Grothar
Quoting popartpete:

Playing cornhole means something quite different in my area!


Now, Now!!! We have some youngsters here. Stay on topic.
Quoting Seastep:


Disagree. Fish = only affects fish.

For the most part. i.e., no major issues for non-fish.

According to forecasts, not a fish atm.

Post 983 is a good example, and that is without it going left of that.

Bedtime for me, too.

Do you understand what non-land falling means??????
Quoting juslivn:


Hello to all: earlier some were saying another area could develop in the carribean or ? Is there something really there that has potential to develop? It was mentioned a few times.


Yes there is the potential for this to develop over the next 48 hours.
Looking forward to some more surfing in NJ...
1010. JLPR
Quoting texascoastres:
good evening, its been fairly quiet tonight on here


the kids went to bed =P
school tomorrow for them
IMO
most likey track and intensity=
Link
Dont know why but I feel South FLorida will be impacted by a strong Hurricane this yr even with El-Nino
JLPR i asked a question earlier that maybe you or KOG can answer for me. Does the potential 94l wave seem to have come off of Africa further south than the last few waves have?
that last track that is posted, if it does follow bill's path albeit closer to the coast, what kind of flood damage and storm surge damage can we expect over the coast, with the current models calling for 88 knot winds and pressure going in the low 950s, 940s even?
Quoting texascoastres:
JLPR i asked a question earlier that maybe you or KOG can answer for me. Does the potential 94l wave seem to have come off of Africa further south than the last few waves have?


I think yes, but I may be wrong.
Looks like the CV has been moving WSW over the past 12hours.
What are models suggesting about the 94l wave? Like, will it be a biggie,etc??.....Just wondering what they may be hinting at at the time being. (although I do know that it can change down the road)
Evening everyone.
The pressure is not going to be in the 940s or 950s with Danny. 99 44/100% sure. The GFDL and HWRF are not realistic showing dramatic deepening north of Cape Hatteras with Danny.
Quoting bwat:

Really? I totally respect your opinion but I just don't see it. What I see is a 60mph tropical storm just east of Hatters in about 72 hours. Of course thats just my opinion, nd everyones gont one.

I agree, everyone has an opinion! Danny already has 50MPH winds, according to the NHC in Miami, per advisory #3, the COC is reforming closer to the area of convection to the northeast. Intensification, now matter how slight, is a testimony to the availiable latent heat energy or fuel in the Western Atlantic, with Danny near an upper level Low dumping dry air into the western quadrents of the storm! Quite frankly, TS Danny looks horrible, but there is an awesome amount of latent heat in the Atlantic, SST are near 85 deg, plus there is a realively low sheer levels in the area where Danny is heading, plus that pesky trough of low pressure will be further away from Danny by midday Thursday. So there will be about 24-30 hrs open window for meaningful intensification. I am not an expert, I have been following hurricanes for over 38 yrs, as a "weather fanatic". I believe that by noon Saturday, Danny will be a Cat 1 with 75-90MPH winds. Forecast track will be very similar to Hurricane Bill, perhaps making landfall over Cape Cod, MA and over far eastern Maine or western Nova Scotia. It will be intersting to see how this plays out!
1022. JLPR
Quoting texascoastres:
JLPR i asked a question earlier that maybe you or KOG can answer for me. Does the potential 94l wave seem to have come off of Africa further south than the last few waves have?


actually it exited closer to 15N but has been moving a little south of due west since it emerged from the African coast
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the CV has been moving WSW over the past 12hours.



Really? How could you tell?
Good evening TampaSpin.
according to the LSU website it looks like it really does move wsw sorry i can't get it to link the site www.esl.lsu.edu
why the heck would anybody cause a fuss over what a fish storm is or isn't? One guy said exactly what it was and a troll came and acted like he was wrong, then provided an answer that meant the same exact thing. Wish they would ban the trolls.

Anyway, looks like this will effect us here in New England the same way Floyd did and the TS remnants that hit us last year. Albeit, this system will be more organized when it is in the region - but not as extra-tropical so the extent of its moisture may not be as large as last year's TS. We'll see


Got dry air?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the CV has been moving WSW over the past 12hours.


Yep and looks more organize than this morning looks that this one will be 94L by tomorow if keeps this pace. Caribbean Strom? we will know in about 48-72 hrs. GFS does'nt develop this one yet, but ECMWF and UKMET does.
someone should post a recent image of pre- 94L thanks
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Really? How could you tell?


don't get him all excited like that...
1031. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
someone should post a recent image of pre- 94L thanks


here you go
1032. Grothar
Quoting TexasHurricane:
What are models suggesting about the 94l wave? Like, will it be a biggie,etc??.....Just wondering what they may be hinting at at the time being. (although I do know that it can change down the road)


According to the weather analysis, the conditions a little hostile further west of the new wave. A ridge of high pressure should be building over it, however, many impressive waves have been torn to shreds. I believe the experts are holding back until they get a better handle on the environment before they make statements. It takes a lot of time to feed the information into the various models. We here all become anxious about declaring features too quickly. It is best to be on the side of caution. If you remember Andrew in 92 it had almost fallen apart near the islands only to rapidly turn into a monster. We shall just have to wait for the experts to give us the facts, then as usual, we shall all develop our own scenarios in contrast. That is what makes this blog so much fun and interesting.
1033. juslivn
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yes there is the potential for this to develop over the next 48 hours.

ty. I'll look at the maps and try to monitor...just interests me to see the whole picture along with others.
Watch the BOC in the SW GOM for potential development.

Quoting JLPR:


here you go

thanks jlpr it seems that the convection is still growing every image i fully expect a orange circle at 2 am
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
Watch the BOC in the SW GOM for potential development.



Huh? I did not notice anything of interest there...BTW...can't view your picture.
Quoting skycycle:
that last track that is posted, if it does follow bill's path albeit closer to the coast, what kind of flood damage and storm surge damage can we expect over the coast, with the current models calling for 88 knot winds and pressure going in the low 950s, 940s even?
do not be concerned with current models strength (wind speed and pressure). This is very difficult to predict under the current set-up and projected conditions. Best advice would be to keep abreast with the NHC's forecast and use their supplied info as guidance. Keep in mind, if the center passes to your east, while paralleling the coast, the conditions felt will not be as "dramatic" as the strngth of the storm.will
Quoting btwntx08:

thanks jlpr it seems that the convection is still growing every i fully expect a orange circle at 2 am


Not sure about an orange yet, still to early if APASS tomorow in the mornig show a close circulation the game start.
1040. hydrus
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
Watch the BOC in the SW GOM for potential development.

Explain why please.
Quoting Grothar:


According to the weather analysis, the conditions a little hostile further west of the new wave. A ridge of high pressure should be building over it, however, many impressive waves have been torn to shreds. I believe the experts are holding back until they get a better handle on the environment before they make statements. It takes a lot of time to feed the information into the various models. We here all become anxious about declaring features too quickly. It is best to be on the side of caution. If you remember Andrew in 92 it had almost fallen apart near the islands only to rapidly turn into a monster. We shall just have to wait for the experts to give us the facts, then as usual, we shall all develop our own scenarios in contrast. That is what makes this blog so much fun and interesting.
It will also be important that the convection persist while at the same time it will also need to organize further for the orange and red crayons to be used.
1042. Grothar
TO: Flyinfish

Great graphic!! Don't recall seeing that one. Now we can really discuss both at the same time.
Uh Oh. I did find a storm that deepened significantly north of Cape Hatteras. So I was wrong about that. Hurricane Ginny deepened by 15 mb, or from 963 to 948 mb from when she passed Cape Hatteras on her way to Nova Scotia.


That's rather disquieting.

Link

Quoting UWalkTheMall:
Watch the BOC in the SW GOM for potential development.


i don't see anything there for development what are u looking at???
I'm calling it a night. Goodnight. Next 48 hrs should be interesting...
Quoting btwntx08:

i don't see anything there for development what are u looking at???
keep watching, although you may be staring at the screen for a while :) (people are model forecating)
Quoting willdunc79:
Since Danny will be a fish storm and stay far enough off the U.S. coast I'm out and will check in in a few days to see how the C.V. wave/future 94L is doing but as of right now I'm giving it a rest and not focusing on Danny anymore. Good night everyone and see you around Saturday evening.
ITS NOT A FISH STORM YET..IF YOU SAY IT AGAIN I AM GOING TO REPORT YOU.
1048. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
It will also be important that the convection persist while at the same time it will also need to organize further for the orange and red crayons to be used.


I was going to put that in but didn't want the blog seem to long. (only kidding) You are quite correct in that statement.
1049. juslivn
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
Watch the BOC in the SW GOM for potential development.


BOC? Refresh? I am not catching on to what that is and it may be obvious...sry.
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
ITS NOT A FISH STORM YET..IF YOU SAY IT AGAIN I AM GOING TO REPORT YOU.

Your going to report him for saying its a fish storm? You're kidding right?
lucky me im workign saturday 10am to 7pm so if danny makes a visit here in southeastern mass i hope they decide early if they want people home and off the road seeing i have a 45 min ride and i did it once before they waited til last minute to close i could feel the winds of bob pushing the car
Quoting presslord:


don't get him all excited like that...


G'morning Press.
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
ITS NOT A FISH STORM YET..IF YOU SAY IT AGAIN I AM GOING TO REPORT YOU.


Yep Danny could move very close to New England area as a Hurricane at least that the NHC oficial track.
Quoting fldude99:
lol..landfall in canuckland is still a fish storm to me


Your ignorance is showing!
A friendly reminder to everyone from New England to Eastern Nova Scotia! Please closely follow TS or Hurricane Danny! Unfortunately 2 people drowned due to HIGH SURF from Hurricane Bill last week!! Please DO NOT get in or too close to the waves associated with this storm! Although Danny may become a Cat 1 hurricane, remember do not be complacent! Stay informed and be safe! There is a 3 1/2 day window to prepare. If the 2 lone computer models are correct and Danny becomes a CAT 2 or greater storm, read up on Hurricanes Gloria and Hurricane Bob! Thanks everyone!!
yup i was here for bob and gloria and it wasnt pretty i think its been so long for us most people wont take it serious
The 0z NAM has shifted significantly east/weaker...does anybody know if the UKMET and CMC have done the same?
Danny looks to have finally been able to sustain deep convection now. This is where his center will probably relocate. Go to the ADDS satellite website and click on Caribbean view. THe infrared imagery shows this convection deepening. I am going to sleep now good night.
i know ill be firing up the generator making sure its ok and filling a few gas jugs up making sure my weather station is ready for it too
Link
last models i found
I'm working on updating my site and looking at everything it appears at satellite that Danny has move WeST a little more than expected! Am i wrong...This is the first time i have looked at DAnny all day.
Let's say Danny is a Cat 1 storm, with 75MPH winds, and it moves a little further west than the present forecast track. So we have 75MPH winds PLUS the foward speed might approach 30-40MPH. On the right front quadrant of any hurricane, you add the wind speed and approach speeds together! Let's be conservative, 75 + 30= 105MPH winds! AND if 105MPH winds blow on Cape Cod or far east Maine, even for 15 minutes, think of the possible damage that can occur over even at 15 mile area! I am not trying to scare anyone, I just want people to think! BE SAFE BE PREPARED!!
Quoting popartpete:

Playing cornhole means something quite different in my area!

oh, I just found out what that mean's. sounds like a "fun" game.
1065. juslivn
Quoting hunkerdown:
keep watching, although you may be staring at the screen for a while :) (people are model forecating)

Oh well, I'm not sure what that means either? Guess it's a joke, but guess I don't get it. It took me a long time to ask a question. ty anyway.
Satellite images show some pretty deep convection starting to close in on the COC of Danny, no?
Too much shear in the GOM for anything for the next few days anyway
1068. JLPR
check out the completely west winds on the barb sw of the wave

1069. JLPR

here comes d-max
1070. mkmand
The CV Storm is centered near 12N. Thats south enough for it to make it to the Carribeanne.
too me Danny looks like a open wave
I don't think that African wave is even a wave anymore, it's just a low...just WAITING to be classified as a depression...or storm. Probably a depression sometime tomorrow if it holds its ground (which I don't see any reason it wouldn't...)
Off to bed.. have fun :)

Added some text to this image.

Something to keep in mind if Danny should come close to the Northeast.

1075. jipmg
Quoting Tazmanian:
too me Danny looks like a open wave


It looks nothing like an open wave, it has a close low spinning at 50mph
Quoting juslivn:

Oh well, I'm not sure what that means either? Guess it's a joke, but guess I don't get it. It took me a long time to ask a question. ty anyway.
In non-joking terms, there is nothing there now. The BOC/SW GOM "possible disturbance" is being based solely on models.
I'm slightly concerned about the intensity of Danny overnight because if a new LLC develops beneath or even on the edge of this new robust convection (which appears to be sustaining itself for the past six hours), there isn't really as much shear and the water is getting warmer the more westward (or northwestward) it goes, so all it would have to do is ward off the dry air, which a more organized system can do given symmetry/no shear I think.

On the side of the track, what is the possible cause of the apparent eastward shift of the 0z models? Or am I seeing things? I might just be getting too tired, haha.
the wave off of africa, it looks to be getting better organized
.
1079. jipmg
Quoting Weathermandan:
I'm slightly concerned about the intensity of Danny overnight because if a new LLC develops beneath or even on the edge of this new robust convection (which appears to be sustaining itself for the past six hours), there isn't really as much shear and the water is getting warmer the more westward (or northwestward) it goes, so all it would have to do is ward off the dry air, which a more organized system can do given symmetry/no shear I think.

On the side of the track, what is the possible cause of the apparent eastward shift of the 0z models? Or am I seeing things? I might just be getting too tired, haha.


The upper level steering flow would push the system more North east of its current track if the center would consolidate on the north eastern ege of the circulation which is where most of the convective activity is located. If the system remains weaker, it would likely take a more westerly track.
Danny



That's what I was thinking. Perhaps the models try to develop a new center, hence the slight shift? Definitely something to watch, especially since it has my name LOL. Anyway I'm off to bed, we'll see what this looks like in the morning!
Nite all...check back in tomorrow....
1083. JLPR
...
One thing CMC, GFDL, GFS and HWRF agree upon at the moment is that after Danny has done what he is going to do and exits to the NE, there will be a broad ridge of high pressure stretching right across the Atlantic. If we see any CV disturbances develop in the 4- to 5-day time frame, they may be held to a more southerly track than what we have seen with Bill and Danny.
This storm is not going to hit Nova Scotia or New England. I think we are looking more like Suffolk or CT. Don't bother yelling at me I'm going to bed! Lots of love!
May not have to worry about 94l if it keeps moving to the westsouthwest like that
1087. OBXNC
Hi all.

So ... um ... it's gonna be close ... he looks like he's getting his act together a bit, too.
The new 00Z GGEM brings the storm right to the NYC Bight in 60 hours as a 968mb hurricane.
what the they just copy and paste the two for cv wave man what they looking at
000
ABNT20 KNHC 270532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


latest CMC model has hilda and ignacio dying off and THREE new systems forming, one after the other... bringing the total named storms in the pacific to 14? probably? maybe activity has shifted form the atlantic to the other side this time?
1091. JLPR
im off to bed
last image im gonna post today



lets see what I find at morning
night jlpr see ya tomorrow night
its 1:15 here, I'm out to been up since 5 am wednesday. this is addicting when things are active. Night all!
1094. SykKid
Still yellow? *yawn*
Danny seems to be going more west than N.
Coming out of the eclipse...

Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
ITS NOT A FISH STORM YET..IF YOU SAY IT AGAIN I AM GOING TO REPORT YOU.


Calm down Jason, that may be his personal opinion. We should all put in a disclaimer in theory but we don't.

Anyway, Lets take a look at Funktop:

Winds in Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa:


Funktop for potential 94L:


Funktop for Danny:


ex 93 seems to be carrying alot of moisture with it south of acapulco mexico california bound still? danny really has not moved a whole lot. up an hour earlier today trying to catch up undone chores. good morning all
Quoting skycycle:
latest CMC model has hilda and ignacio dying off and THREE new systems forming, one after the other... bringing the total named storms in the pacific to 14? probably? maybe activity has shifted form the atlantic to the other side this time?


When either the East Pacific or Atlantic are having well above average seasons, the other usually has a average or blow average season/
hearing some character yell fish is no big deal. get a grip. it been like this since ive been blogging 95. let's practice. "its a fish" okay. thats right no big deal. nothing in the cv area seems in a hurry to develop this yr so far anyway.
1101. IKE



Wow. Totally did not post....

1103. IKE
CV wave looks good. I think it's likely we'll have 94L today, and this will probably be our next tropical depression. Models suggest a highly favorable upper wind pattern throughout the next several days.
Danny doesn't look very pretty, but has been slowly intensifying over the last 6hrs! Convection has been very robust over the last few hrs since the satellite eclipse ended. If the new convection in the SE quadrant wraps around the main circulation over the next 6 hrs, then we may have a hurricane by today's 5PM NHC advisory! And everybody wanted to write off TS Danny 12 hrs ago!



Hi all,

Thanks IKE for your information, I realised that Danny is sterring into 20 know turbulence, which is increasing. Any reason why NHC has not downgraded Danny's forecast yet? 20 knots I thought, is enough to break a hurricane, let alone a tropical storm.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Danny doesn't look very pretty, but has been slowly intensifying over the last 6hrs! Convection has been very robust over the last few hrs since the satellite eclipse ended. If the new convection in the SE quadrant wraps around the main circulation over the next 6 hrs, then we may have a hurricane by today's 5PM NHC advisory! And everybody wanted to write off TS Danny 12 hrs ago!


You sure, and what if the wind shear he runs into takes some of the moisture with it? Maybe we won't have a Category One, we might even have a depression if Danny goes into it. The convection to the SE quadrant may get ripped off even! Then Danny REALLY would be in trouble.
so is it correct for me to assume that if this system stays weaker, it will take a more westerly track? It seems to me the strength is already behind the model forecasts, their intensity forecasts aren't really verifying very well. Also noticed convection has now formed southeast of the center, which wasn't there before. What effect might this have on any additional center-reformations, as the lower most extent of convection is now further south than it was.... or could this just be unrelated to the eventual consistent center?

This is where my weather knowledge generally falters, with weak tropical systems it's almost like you have to go back to the old days to get it right - the computer models are usually never correct... i think in the case of these systems it's even more about luck correctly forecasting them than usual. Also, most of the Meteorologists I depend on in their online video discussions are saying nobody should be biasing their forecasts towards what the models say, unless the storm achieves their forecast strengths at the forecast times.

Also, I'm not sure why there's a lack of people talking about the possibility of this storm becoming extra tropical as it approaches New England. If that happens, it won't matter too much where the center is in terms of the heaviest rainfall...

once again, I am not a "westcaster," but just like with Bill I think it is quite foolish for anybody to call this storm a "fish" until the moment it makes its turn to the northEAST. Also note that in terms of approaching frontal boundaries and low pressure (which is suppose to kick the storm to the East), this particular front is going to be moving slower than the one that kicked Bill out. In the last couple days before Bill passed us by, models trended West and I consider Hurricane Bill a near forecasting disaster.... since forecasters were saying it would pass a thousand or more miles to the east of Cape Cod, and it ended up only a couple hundred miles away. Ahhh yes, all us weather buffs will be up late contemplating this one... but I wonder if the models are predicting the storm wrapping up too much, too fast.... and at the same time predicting stronger westerlies than what will actually be over the Northeast at the time.

It is very important I think to realize that this is an even less certain situation than Bill, and the approaching front and associated westerlies will be arriving later than they did with Bill, yet the timing of this tropical system being at New England latitude is almost exactly the same timing as Bill last week. My biggest concern right now is definitely that this storm hasn't got going as quickly, and that it looks like the front will be AT LEAST 36 to 48 hours behind in timing than what happened in this scenario last week. Actually, this front is expected to not even pass off the East Coast until some time Monday before it stalls and even before then it looks like a slug. I personally feel as if 4 to 8 inches of rain is a pretty good bet anywhere east of NYC and in a diagonal line from Fairfield County CT to Boston MA. Winds? I don't think we'll feel much, but getting the rain in an area where the summer has been extremely wet (flooding has already been a major problem) and also where tree moisture is already at record levels will not be a good thing. I went into the woods the other day and almost every skinny tree (not baby twiggy trees tho) on a slant was easily knocked down by less than my full body weight (165 pounds). Granted it was only 24 hours after our area received 2 to 5 inches of rain. That aint good lol. Every windy thunderstorm that's hit us lately has looked like an F0 to F1 tornado in terms of the trees its knocked down.
1109. breald
I just heard my local met say he is getting stronger.
Well, I might know whats causing Danny to assume a westerly track. The Coriolis-PGF/CGF effect. If an object is moving fast, the coriolis effect brings the hurricane to the right, in turn making the system slow down, if its going to slow, the PGF/CGF brings the object to the left, in turn speeeding it up. There may be other things pushin this hurricane, like windshear, currents even, so I may be wrong. Danny's Speed is NW at 10mph. Danny is supposed to speed up real fast, look here, and as it does, it assumes a right track, averting it from running into Canada head on. This is also what kept BIll from crashing in to Washington D.C. I am sure of that.

Link

By the way PGF/CGF means Pressure Gradient Force/ Contour Gradient force, they act against the Coriolis effect. Remember I am only 12, so I don't know much compared to experienced people, it may be helpful to ask them.
Man the gulf has been quiet other than a small tropical storm.... I may even take a cruise this year.... NO WAVES@@
Well, its 4 am here, and I am about to collapse, gnight all see you at well, sometime tomorrow night, probably around 3 WT or 2 WT, good night all!
Quoting cajunstorm:
Man the gulf has been quiet other than a small tropical storm.... I may even take a cruise this year.... NO WAVES@@


THAAAAATS WAAAT TEEEEY ALLL SAY... THEEEN THEEEY GET MMMMURDERED BYYYYY AA CATTTEGORRRY FIIIVE!!!

No offense Danny... no please no agai..... AHHHHHHH.... thats the 2nd. window this year! Ana did the same! I am just lucky that Bill wasn't here when I sayed that.......
ANyway... Now I am going to bed... Night all!
1115. Mikla
The last 4 OFCL tracks. Danny has continued to be East of the previous track and the tracks have shifted a tad East in the last 18 hours. If folks have published data showing a westerly shift, please post it or a link to it. Thanks.
Quoting Mikla:
The last 4 OFCL tracks. Danny has continued to be East of the previous track and the tracks have shifted a tad East in the last 18 hours. If folks have published data showing a westerly shift, please post it or a link to it. Thanks.


yeah, honestly I've only seen the GFS and one other model trend west... but considering the GFS's previous track, it is kind of interesting that now it is one of the western most tracks, similar to that of Tuesday's NAM except much weaker.

still, I don't think we've seen the the light on this storm... because of the positioning of weather features though, I would be surprised if this storm ended up THIS far East unless its center relocates further East - but to get it to stay as far West as the Nam 48 hours ago also seems pretty difficult.

Let's just hope the fish wishers and the west casters stay away from this one lol both sides of that spectrum are counter-productive.
I hope all of the rest of the storms follow Bill!!
Quoting connie1976:
I hope all of the rest of the storms follow Bill!!
i will second that just might
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

looks like there was quite a bit of western movement followed by a northern jog, and a definite increase in organization. I'm a little surprised at all the convection to the south of the center as I stated earlier. Also note how the system seems to have slowed or even stalled. Could be another center reformation under way.

I stand by my statement that nobody should be relying much on the models right now, I think a human probably has more forecasting capabilities for such a system than the models could dream of having. Not saying they won't be right, but over time with weaker tropical systems (and Nor'Easters) I learn to trust models less and less.
morning
while the continued development and track of TS DANNY is basically a conus and canadian affair, we in the lesser antilles should now focus what is in the eastrn atl.
the disturbance south of the cape verde islands is becoming to look like one of these long track cape verde storms. the environment is very conducive for organised development.
(1) the cyclonic turning is evident. (2) sst are warm enough 28-29 deg C (3) very low vertical wind shear for several days (4) a strenghening B/A high which will keep the system on a west to westnorthwest track for the next few days, and finally a virtually non exitent SAL. this is the scenario for what is expected to be a classic cape verde storm. residents in the lesser antilles islands should monitor what appears to be a developing system
Good Morning!

Is it just me or is Danny stationary, with a hint of westward movement in the last 1 to 2 hours, imo.
1123. Engine2
Quoting canesrule1:
Good Morning!

Is it just me or is Danny stationary, with a hint of westward movement in the last 1 to 2 hours, imo.

I'm actually still trying to find the center but yea its not moving that much right now
That's what the models (excluding the ECMWF) said about Bill.


Also, the CIMSS wind shear map is horrible.


15-20 knots isn't hostile. It allows for slow and steady development.
1125. WxLogic
Good morning...
Quoting Engine2:

I'm actually still trying to find the center but yea its not moving that much right now
My opinion the COC is somewhere around 72.4W and 27.5N.



1127. Engine2
Yes I'm thinking it maybe under some convection finally
good morning all,

what suppose to steer danny later today?
Quoting Engine2:
Yes I'm thinking it maybe under some convection finally
I think 72.4-ish, i believe still a visible eye.

REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 72.1W. OR APPROX 530NM ESE OF MAYPORT, FL.
12FT SEAS: 150NM NE, 150NMSE, 210NM SW, 150NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271501Z, 272101Z, 280301Z AND 280901Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0509082312 140N 480W 20
0509082318 146N 500W 20
0509082400 152N 520W 20
0509082406 159N 540W 20
0509082412 165N 560W 20
0509082418 171N 580W 20
0509082500 184N 599W 20
0509082506 202N 616W 25
0509082512 217N 633W 25
0509082518 228N 650W 25
0509082600 233N 667W 40
0509082606 238N 685W 40
0509082612 246N 698W 40
0509082618 251N 705W 45
0509082700 260N 709W 50
0509082700 260N 709W 50
0509082706 271N 717W 50
0509082706 271N 717W 50
Quoting justalurker:
good morning all,

what suppose to steer danny later today?
A jet strem that is supposed to dip:
(You can see it here entering through Louisiana, exiting North Carolina/Virginia, that dry air seen is the jet stream the will curve it:
Quoting DM21Altestic:
That's what the models (excluding the ECMWF) said about Bill.


Also, the CIMSS wind shear map is horrible.


15-20 knots isn't hostile. It allows for slow and steady development.


yup. I didn't want to say anything but the person who said a Hurricane "can't even survive 20kt sheer" (was worded slightly different) obviously hasn't been watching Hurricanes for very long. I've seen tropical systems undergo even rapid strengthening under stronger sheer before... granted tho, it surely does limit the full potential.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 72.1W. OR APPROX 530NM ESE OF MAYPORT, FL.
12FT SEAS: 150NM NE, 150NMSE, 210NM SW, 150NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271501Z, 272101Z, 280301Z AND 280901Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0509082312 140N 480W 20
0509082318 146N 500W 20
0509082400 152N 520W 20
0509082406 159N 540W 20
0509082412 165N 560W 20
0509082418 171N 580W 20
0509082500 184N 599W 20
0509082506 202N 616W 25
0509082512 217N 633W 25
0509082518 228N 650W 25
0509082600 233N 667W 40
0509082606 238N 685W 40
0509082612 246N 698W 40
0509082618 251N 705W 45
0509082700 260N 709W 50
0509082700 260N 709W 50
0509082706 271N 717W 50
0509082706 271N 717W 50
IMO, this thing is stationary, with a little hint of westward motion in the past several hours.
I need help. Anybody care to show where the center of Danny is at? I can't find it on here. VERY hard. I know center re-located as of 5AM so, where is it? Anybody know?
Quoting canesrule1:
A jet strem that is supposed to dip:
(You can see it here entering through Louisiana, exiting North Carolina/Virginia, that dry air seen is the jet stream the will curve it:


thanks canes, btw, it's all about the "U"
Quoting ChrisCone:


yup. I didn't want to say anything but the person who said a Hurricane "can't even survive 20kt sheer" obviously hasn't been watching Hurricanes for very long. I've seen tropical systems undergo even rapid strengthening under stronger sheer before... granted it does limit the full potential.
I agree.
Quoting justalurker:


thanks canes, btw, it's all about the "U"
lol, thats right! lol
1138. WxLogic
I expect DANNY to move on a general NW TO NNW direction for at least 24 hour before getting more of a northerly component to its motion:

The Bermuda High's western periphery has weakened quite a bit



1139. Dakster
canesrule - at least Danny is above our lattitude!

Hopefully he does the East Coast / Bermuda split, ala Bill too.

Why are some people thinking Danny will still go WEST? He appears to be folowing the NHC cone error track quite well.
Quoting cyclonekid:
I need help. Anybody care to show where the center of Danny is at? I can't find it on here. VERY hard. I know center re-located as of 5AM so, where is it? Anybody know?
Looking at the visible satellite on the ramsdis page, I think it is around 72.8W and 27.6.
1141. juniort
Good morning, I tend to agree with stoormfury, this system appears poised to give the Lesser Antilles islands some trouble, it reminds me of Ivan although Ivan was more south, and the conditions appear favourable
Quoting canesrule1:
I think 72.4-ish, i believe still a visible eye.


i see no eye, what might you be referring to? the center of circulation? not trying to pull a troll menuver here just a little confused on that one statement.
Quoting canesrule1:
lol, thats right! lol


there is going to be a category 5 major hurricane swarming Tallahassee on Sept 7th and its not going to be a tropical one either..now back to tropics..

1144. WxLogic
Quoting cyclonekid:
I need help. Anybody care to show where the center of Danny is at? I can't find it on here. VERY hard. I know center re-located as of 5AM so, where is it? Anybody know?


5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 27
Location: 27.4°N 72.1°W

If you look at the Shortwave Sat Imagery you'll see that the convection lies on the SE edge of the circulation...

Danny still disorganized as it still being affected by the TUTT to its S and dry air on its western periphery restricting TSTM development.
Quoting connie1976:
I hope all of the rest of the storms follow Bill!!
Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes might feel a bit differently.
CV wave, main event for the coming days, a "monster in the making" , climatology, environment,low SAL, good divergent and convergent, SST,low shear, and strong ridge and above all 2,000 miles of warm sea temperatures...
I wonder with all these storms curving in to the northeast, if it's affecting the fish industry in maine..
Quoting juniort:
Good morning, I tend to agree with stoormfury, this system appears poised to give the Lesser Antilles islands some trouble, it reminds me of Ivan although Ivan was more south, and the conditions appear favourable


how can a blob of clouds remind one of such a significant storm like Ivan? It isnt even a storm yet and the models (not that they do well with unformed storms but) are not developing it.
Quoting Dakster:
canesrule - at least Danny is above our lattitude!

Hopefully he does the East Coast / Bermuda split, ala Bill too.

Why are some people thinking Danny will still go WEST? He appears to be folowing the NHC cone error track quite well.


because one thing Danny does not have is a totally consistent center of circulation. And actually, the models have only verified for about 18 hours... and the whole time they've been predicting quicker strengthening than what is transpiring. The NHC has had to lower the intensity forecast from the model forecast in every update, as they have stated. This all means a westward solution is still not unrealistic... and honestly I haven't seen anybody saying "oh this thing is going to plow the East Coast"... so I don't really see why anybody's guess would be thrown out right now. Also, the models haven't verified very well on the incoming trough in the upper plains, in terms of timing... and have been slowing this feature, similar to the trough which pushed away Hurricane Bill - except more so. This slowing of the previous trough inevitably caused Bill to pass much closer to New England than what was expected a couple days earlier. Of course, with Bill models ORIGINALLY thought it was going to be another Hurricane of 1938, but they shifted East. Then, they totally failed on the first trough Bill passed and partially failed on the one that swept it East. Had the models been another 24 hours off, Bill would have been a much different story. To determine model verification in these situations I think it's important to look at more than the storm itself, but the expected patterns to reach it. NO ONE should be calling Danny a fish until it is literally moving away from the coast. And nobody should be saying landfall for sure. The only sure thing is that nobody who claims they are "sure" about this system are being honest, and if they're being honest they are also being ignorant... and systems that work out the way these say they will this far in advance is more luck than skill. Again, many people considered Bill a forecasting success - I considered it a disgrace. The only correct thing about that forecast was the end result... which is, of course, most important but also should be a reminder of how dangerous it can be to dismiss landfall possibilities before the necessary (and safe) time.
1150. Relix
Quoting jurakantaino:
CV wave, main event for the coming days, a "monster in the making" , climatology, environment,low SAL, good divergent and convergent, SST,low shear, and strong ridge and above all 2,000 miles of warm sea temperatures...


This is one I am watching as much as Bill =) (PR wise)
Is it me or does the ECM always start at +72hours?
'morning all! :)

I'm very busy logging my video files from my recent trip to intercept Hurricane Bill in Bermuda.

While working, I found this series of images that I compiled into one photograph. This is a composite of three seperate frames that captures rare (to me anyway) hurricane generated lightning.

I'm on track to meet my weekend deadline for releasing "Experience Hurricane Bill" on YouTube...so stand by...I really did get some great footage.

1153. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I'm sorry but Danny is moving NW and will soon start to the North. This isn't another Bill but I'm very confident and so are the local Mets that Danny is going to Miss SC, NC, and VA but may brush the NE coast but thats starting to look like it won't happen. So the southeast can keep an eye on Danny for tracking purposes but we're safe from this "storm".
1155. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


I agree with that statement.
It looks like Danny will almost parallel Bill's track, except that it will be a little farther west. The Rhode Island and Cape Cod areas needs to monitor this system and even the eastern end of North Carolina could be affected. Otherwise, northeastern Maine and Nova Scotia look to be impacted. As Danny is still trying to organize, it's future path should become clearer soon.

That disturbance near 10N/28W seems to mean business. It could be a relatively low-latitude system for a number of days, maybe a classic CV hurricane in time. Could be trouble down the road, but that's still uncertain as of yet.
Quoting justalurker:


there is going to be a category 5 major hurricane swarming Tallahassee on Sept 7th and its not going to be a tropical one either..now back to tropics..



A new ultimate in wishcasting!!
They added new model tracks to there model runs.. I think they are the GFS ensembles. They did good with Bill, I'm still watching Bill from North Carolina to Nova Scotia.



Nevermind, they took them off lol
1159. IKE
1160. IKE
Local Mets are all saying that all NC will see is MAYBE up to 9 ft. seas from Danny.
Reedzone are you in NC also?
1163. MahFL
Anyone see Danny moing west at the moment ?
Quoting WeatherBubba:


A new ultimate in wishcasting!!
I believe they are referring to the UM/FSU game, meh...go gators !
1165. tramp96
Quoting WeatherBubba:


A new ultimate in wishcasting!!


155 mph right over your head.
Quoting CycloneOz:
'morning all! :)

I'm very busy logging my video files from my recent trip to intercept Hurricane Bill in Bermuda.

While working, I found this series of images that I compiled into one photograph. This is a composite of three seperate frames that captures rare (to me anyway) hurricane generated lightning.

I'm on track to meet my weekend deadline for releasing "Experience Hurricane Bill" on YouTube...so stand by...I really did get some great footage.



I believe you are correct. I find more lightning in storms that are lower in magnitude. I have captured lightning strokes in mostly tropical storms but had no luck in hurricanes. Now once the hurricane passes I have had luck in the trailing bands.
Quoting willdunc79:
Reedzone are you in NC also?


No, I'm in Florida. I'm really watching the northeast on this storm because any deviation of the track to the west will put an impact up there.
Quoting WeatherBubba:


A new ultimate in wishcasting!!



...ah...I think that's more appropriately called footballcasting...
Quoting reedzone:
They added new model tracks to there model runs.. I think they are the GFS ensembles. They did good with Bill, I'm still watching Bill from North Carolina to Nova Scotia.



Nevermind, they took them off lol
huh ? The ensembles are not models but potential "what if" tracks. So no, the members did not do good with Bill, nor were they supposed to. The data put into them are "possible options" other than what is forecasted and meant to show the outlier extreme based on possible changes/deviances (hence the layman "what ifs").
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I believe you are correct. I find more lightning in storms that are lower in magnitude. I have captured lightning strokes in mostly tropical storms but had no luck in hurricanes. Now once the hurricane passes I have had luck in the trailing bands.


Agreed...at the moment this footage was shot, Bill was still 4 hours away from making its closest pass to Bermuda...so yes...lower magnitude / tropical storm intensity.

It's a pretty cool composite! :) And I have so much more stuff. I'm chomping at the bit to show everyone. I guarantee my hard work in the storm will give you a unique and full experience of Hurricane Bill...better than anything you've yet seen.
1171. Dakster
Quoting presslord:



...ah...I think that's more appropriately called footballcasting...


I thought it was called bookmaking...
1172. juniort
I am no expert I am just saying that this system reminded me of Ivan, I never said it is in any way like Ivan that would be foolish, as was said it is not even a storm as yet, however indiations are that this system could be a problem for us in the Lesser Antilles and we need to focus on what is hapening instead of what one may feel.
it's hard to really tell if Danny is moving west. Looking at the higher cloud bands, those are ejecting in a way which may signal a continued NW movement... however the center of circulation seems to have slowed, sat images show more westward movement than north - but a lack in movement the last few hours. If the convection to the south can wrap in, there's a chance a short period of steady intensification will begin, which has been known to cause a southwesterly jog in the past before resuming original course. Hurricane Katrina in the early stages is a good example. The storm underwent the early stages of rapid intensification just before it reached the East Coast of Florida, the storm jogged to the south in response (in addition to a couple of other factors, which at the time were not in the forecast). Of course, this surely is not anything like Katrina, but it was a fairly good example of how a storm's track can be effected by intensification.

In response to a certain comment, my idea is not about hopeful thinking but it is about how people need to be cautious. A forecast is rarely even 50% correct this early in tropical development. There is still a wide range of possibilities, any pro will tell you that.
Quoting willdunc79:
I'm sorry but Danny is moving NW and will soon start to the North. This isn't another Bill but I'm very confident and so are the local Mets that Danny is going to Miss SC, NC, and VA but may brush the NE coast but thats starting to look like it won't happen. So the southeast can keep an eye on Danny for tracking purposes but we're safe from this "storm".
I agree.
1175. Dakster
Quoting juniort:
I am no expert I am just saying that this system reminded me of Ivan, I never said it is in any way like Ivan that would be foolish, as was said it is not even a storm as yet, however indiations are that this system could be a problem for us in the Lesser Antilles and we need to focus on what is hapening instead of what one may feel.


Careful. You'll get IKE all nervous if you start talking about the 'I' storms...

However, if I lived in the Lesser Antilles I would be a little cautious about anything forming off the coast of Africa.
Quoting Dakster:


I thought it was called bookmaking...


all models are in agreement..now back to the tropics before we get banned..just some little humor break the stress.
1177. juniort
CAUTION...That is really the watch word right now....thanks
Quoting juniort:
I am no expert I am just saying that this system reminded me of Ivan, I never said it is in any way like Ivan that would be foolish, as was said it is not even a storm as yet, however indiations are that this system could be a problem for us in the Lesser Antilles and we need to focus on what is hapening instead of what one may feel.


Well it truly never a bad Idea being over prepared or overly watchful of the tropics. I just get a bit tired of all the wishcasting and "FIRE" calling.. Not saying you did but there is quite a bit of that kind of stuff on here sometimes. Its all good
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Well it truly never a bad Idea being over prepared or overly watchful of the tropics. I just get a bit tired of all the wishcasting and "FIRE" calling.. Not saying you did but there is quite a bit of that kind of stuff on here sometimes. Its all good


would you agree, invest coming to day..
Quoting juniort:
I am no expert I am just saying that this system reminded me of Ivan, I never said it is in any way like Ivan that would be foolish, as was said it is not even a storm as yet, however indiations are that this system could be a problem for us in the Lesser Antilles and we need to focus on what is hapening instead of what one may feel.


that's what I thought you meant.
1181. Fla727
Looks like Danny is taking the same fishing trip as Bill did.
Quoting justalurker:


would you agree, invest coming to day..


I think so.. The set up is there. Low shear, low sal, good tstorms, nice hot water.. Looks good. But I am no met.
does it seem that there is pattern this year with these storms..last year most of the storms form in the Caribbean and hitting cuba..this year forming in the Atlantic and curving to the north..lets hope this trend continues, but just a little more east would be nice..missing any land. even though A/B high is forming for this next wave..not to mention the cold fronts dipping lower. just my 2 cents.
Quoting justalurker:


there is going to be a category 5 major hurricane swarming Tallahassee on Sept 7th and its not going to be a tropical one either..now back to tropics..



Given the state of things in Tally a "Green Wave" could roll into that town and be concidered a Cat 5 Cane. If it's not a total blow out there are problems with the "u".

Now - back to the tropics.
I would throw out the 6z model set. The initialization looks way too far north. COC looks south. Maybe the 12z will be better.

According to this quikscat , looks like Danny might be finally coming together.
Quoting justalurker:
does it seem that there is pattern this year with these storms..last year most of the storms form in the Caribbean and hitting cuba..this year forming in the Atlantic and curving to the north..lets hope this trend continues, but just a little more east would be nice..missing any land. even though A/B high is forming for this next wave..just my 2 cents.


the pattern looks good so far for stuff missing the southern US coasts, however it puts North Carolina to New England in an enhanced risk when compared to normal. Still, September is coming and anything can happen.
after 48 hrs of heavy rain under fay i was starting to think it was a cat 5
1189. K8eCane
0900 UTC Thu Aug 27 2009

interests from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitor
the progress of Danny.


sorry Press but it was the NHC, not me!
Quoting ChrisCone:


the pattern looks good so far for stuff missing the southern US coasts, however it puts North Carolina to New England in an enhanced risk when compared to normal. Still, September is coming and anything can happen.


Exactly. I'm not feeling secure untill late November.
Quoting ChrisCone:


the pattern looks good so far for stuff missing the southern US coasts, however it puts North Carolina to New England in an enhanced risk when compared to normal. Still, September is coming and anything can happen.


i know its not the "norm" and no way am i westcasting or wishcasting, just thought that this trend would continue..
1192. divdog
Quoting reedzone:


No, I'm in Florida. I'm really watching the northeast on this storm because any deviation of the track to the west will put an impact up there.
same thing you kept saying about bill
Per Tropical Postion Page - 2 hours ago
27/0615 UTC 27.4N 71.7W T2.5/2.5 DANNY -- Atlantic

Station 41047 NE Bahamas 27.469 N 71.491 W (through 7:50 am)

Looks like the area of lowest pressure might have passed by (BTW winds shifted from E to SE)




1195. eddye
the one in the atlantic could come to floridA
1196. divdog
Quoting eddye:
the one in the atlantic could come to floridA
based on what ?????
Quoting eddye:
the one in the atlantic could come to floridA


c'mon are you serious!! could, would, should..is not part of my dictionary for stroms, is there something that you know that i dont.LOL
1200. P451
dupe post sorry
1201. P451
EDIT: Disregard my center fixes, which I placed given the NHC, refer to post 1235 to see why it's wrong - the COC is FAR WEST of there.



=========================

Danny (center is highlighted on final frame of each loop)

WV




AVN

AL 05 2009082712 BEST 0 275N 727W 50 1005 TS
1203. amd
Low level center leaving the convection again, according to the RAMMIB satellite. LLC currently moving wnw to nw.

Link
Quoting willdunc79:
I'm sorry but Danny is moving NW and will soon start to the North. This isn't another Bill but I'm very confident and so are the local Mets that Danny is going to Miss SC, NC, and VA but may brush the NE coast but thats starting to look like it won't happen. So the southeast can keep an eye on Danny for tracking purposes but we're safe from this "storm".


If you look at this MIMIC, after reforming to the N Danny resumes a WNW trajectory.
Quoting justalurker:


c'mon are you serious!! could, would, should..is not part of my dictionary for stroms, is there something that you know that i dont.LOL


wouldn't the word "could" signify that this person was simply introducing a possibility and not to say he thought he knew anything for sure? Then again, any storm the forms anywhere in the Atlantic has at least a slight chance of hitting Florida, Florida is just in a bad place like that lol.
1206. WXHam
Can Anyone See the COC in Danny?
Link
Quoting amd:
Low level center leaving the convection again, according to the RAMMIB satellite. LLC currently moving wnw to nw.

Link


last frame looks like the LLC is moving more west, coinciding with NHC..BUST MOVING VERY SLOW.
1208. Drakoen
The CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS now all forecast for development of the CV wave.
1209. ackee
the wave in far eastern atlantic looks goods notice not many of the models develop it thow guess only time will tell
1210. P451
Danny is not in a favorable position. Now look at it's new nemesis - a massive surge of dry air coming in from it's south east.



So now not only is it terribly organized, facing two organized areas of heavy shear, ingesting dry air on it's west side, but now it's about to be punched in from the south east with more dry air.

...and we're to assume this system is strengthening and is going to continue to do so?

I must be missing something. 55MPH TS? Why? Because they found a 55mph wind gust in a squall 200 miles away from the center?

I don't see it and I don't agree with how they're classifying this as a 55mph TS. They want to call it a TS, fine, but there should be some guidelines as to what wind speed they attach to it.
Looks like a track change on Danny from the HH information:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Hurricane Bill Imagery - from 8/21/2009

CycloneOz gets slammed by crashing wave (sequence of 4 frames)





CycloneOz uses underwater camera to get right into the malestrom! (sequence of 2 frames)



Safe Harbor? I don't think so!!!
1213. amd
Quoting justalurker:


last frame looks like the LLC is moving more west, coinciding with NHC..BUST MOVING VERY SLOW.


possibly.

I still think there will be another relocation of the center much closer to the convection located near 70 West.
AL 94 2009082612 BEST 0 114N 195W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082618 BEST 0 111N 210W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082700 BEST 0 109N 226W 25 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082706 BEST 0 107N 241W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082712 BEST 0 105N 256W 25 1009 DB
1215. Drakoen
Danny's center is exposed.
1216. Drakoen
94L is here finally!
1218. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2009082612 BEST 0 114N 195W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082618 BEST 0 111N 210W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082700 BEST 0 109N 226W 25 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082706 BEST 0 107N 241W 20 1009 DB
AL 94 2009082712 BEST 0 105N 256W 25 1009 DB


New INVEST 94L...
1219. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:


new invest dipping sw?


The mid level maximum associated with the feature has moved closer to the convection. It should move to the West now.
1220. NEwxguy
Unlike yesterday,feeling less threatened up here today,Danny is taking too long to organize and the trough coming in seems to be moving right along which should push it out to sea,but will be a close call up here in Mass.
1221. Relix
94L is here.
1222. WxLogic
Quoting DestinJeff:


new invest dipping sw?


There's a pretty strong Azores High out there...
1223. Drakoen
The SHIPS forecast for shear to remain favorable for development of 94L and take it up to an 81 knot hurricane.
Quoting justalurker:


i know its not the "norm" and no way am i westcasting or wishcasting, just thought that this trend would continue..


no worries - in the world of weather there are no certainties and technically even the finest of Meteorologists are "wish casting"... but that's not what I was accusing you of.
1225. ackee
can see link 94L link dont see it on the navy site
1226. 900MB
Quoting NEwxguy:
Unlike yesterday,feeling less threatened up here today,Danny is taking too long to organize and the trough coming in seems to be moving right along which should push it out to sea,but will be a close call up here in Mass.


I just bought Jets vs. Giants tix for Saturday night. So, chances are that we will have a repeat of Gloria!

But seriously, sticking with my projection of 75mph hurricane by 11pm tonight. I think this thing turns over and final gets organized this afternoon/evening. I just hope this thing swings East, way East.

BTW, the GDFL, on the tropical home page here, has a Cat 3 hitting NYC- they must have heard about my ticket purchase!
1227. P451
Danny's Structure - COC is at the center of this image.



Danny's Environment - Dry Air, Shear, Lopsided appearance, new huge push of dry air from the SE.

Quoting sullivanweather:
Added some text to this image.

Something to keep in mind if Danny should come close to the Northeast.



Yes, that is why south facing beaches like bath water, east and northern beaches freezing, and seafood the best on the planet.
Quoting ChrisCone:


no worries - in the world of weather there are no certainties and technically even the finest of Meteorologists are "wish casting"... but that's not what I was accusing you of.


will see what the new invest 94L will do..keep our fingers crossed..XXXXX
1230. P451
Nice Pictures, OZ!
1231. JLPR
I don't understand why the NHC doesn't bump 94L to medium =\

Quoting P451:
Danny's Structure - COC is at the center of this image.



Danny's Environment - Dry Air, Shear, Lopsided appearance, new huge push of dry air from the SE.



great job on the image, clarifies alot what going on with danny!! respect.


New Invest 94L
1234. WxLogic
Quoting JLPR:
I don't understand why the NHC doesn't bump 94L to medium =\



They will soon... most likely by 11PM today
1235. P451
Ummm..WOW, I made my center predictions based off of the NHC center fix.

Now look at this image.

:/



Sure seems like the COC is FAR west of where they put it (which was on the edge of that convection).

Quoting JLPR:
I don't understand why the NHC doesn't bump 94L to medium =\



NHC is probably still focused more on Danny since it is a more imminent threat. I expect they will be a bit sluggish with the new invest until A) Danny is out of our hair for sure and/or B) new invest rapidly intensifies into something big.
1238. Buhdog
nice job p451
1239. GatorWX
Good mornin' everyone! Wow, Danny made a surprising comeback overnight. It appears at first glance, just woke up!, that the circulation is finally under some convection. It looks like it relocated itself last night. Also, our e atl wave continues to look impressive. Feeder bands are developing, there's a hint of a small outflow channel on its north side. I am very surprised this is not even an invest yet. Haven't looked at quickscat yet, but yesterday its llc was about 2/3-3/4 complete. This could be a depression tomorrow or Sunday. I would give it more than >30% and definitely call it an invest!
1240. WxLogic
Quoting Orcasystems:


New Invest 94L


That current track looks about right... for now as per the strong DLM High.
1241. GatorWX
Ok nevermind the thing I said about Danny! Looked at the top post of the sat pic of Danny, center def still exposed. Sorry
Quoting P451:
Ummm..WOW, I made my center predictions based off of the NHC center fix.

Now look at this image.

:/



Sure seems like the COC is FAR west of where they put it (which was on the edge of that convection).




Danny still looks ragged although the convection is getting a little bigger.
so 94L is here.. I expect NHC to upgrade the yellow circle to orange!
Although this thing does look very good it just may be that it is lacking a well defined closed circulation - can't really tell under that heavy convection!
Just trust the NHC for now.. but it does look like moving WSW accroding the XTRP...
Ok, I've just read the past 400 posts and the only thing that may be said with any surety is that Danny is forming in the Atlantic.
Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like Danny's low level CoC is again racing away to the west of the deep convection...

94L looks better than Danny
1247. P451
1248. Grothar
Quoting P451:
Ummm..WOW, I made my center predictions based off of the NHC center fix.

Now look at this image.

:/



Sure seems like the COC is FAR west of where they put it (which was on the edge of that convection).



Hey P451, hope you haven't been on all night! Interesting image. It does appear to be further west. Could it be trying to form a new center, or could that be the swirl left by the old ULL. The sattelite picture of 94L looks like it is only HALF of what is was last night. (Kidding, Kidding) Just some early morning humor to wake us all up. See the image??
1249. P451
Quoting Buhdog:
nice job p451


Quoting justalurker:


great job on the image, clarifies alot what going on with danny!! respect.



Thanks.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Ok, I've just read the past 400 posts and the only thing that may be said with any surety is that Danny is forming in the Atlantic.


Painful sometimes isn't it. I've learned that going back to read is useless because everything is repeated 20 or 30 times. Within 5 or 10 min your up to speed :-)
1251. WxLogic
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like Danny's low level CoC is again racing away to the west of the deep convection...



Morning...
Danny has to be the ugliest tropical storm in history. I must say, it looks as if the center wants to keep going west. I dont think it will follow the models projected paths. If it keeps moving the way it is, NC will experiecnce a direct hit without a-lot of rain, just some minor winds
1253. ackee
94L appers to be moveing west or SW ?
1254. Buhdog
earlier someone was kind of slammed for telling us to watch the gulf and boc for development....

but if you look you will see a mess in the eastern gulf from a stalled frontal boundary. Lots of storms last night on the west coast of FL....I give it a 20% chance of forming...I see some mid level turning to my untrained eye!
Link
What in the world makes the coc keep taking off?
1256. Grothar
Hey, nrtiwlnvragn
You were one of the first who helped me on this blog.
Saw your graphic. Not a happy early track is it? There should be a lot of blogging in the coming days, ya think?
West to East shear is just really messing with Danny, but that COC seems to be way west of where the NHC expected it. We gonna see ANOTHER relocation?
Danny once again is a nekkid swirl and will be dancing with the chippendales this weekend on south beach
Quoting P451:
Ummm..WOW, I made my center predictions based off of the NHC center fix.

Now look at this image.

:/



Sure seems like the COC is FAR west of where they put it (which was on the edge of that convection).



To that point, if you plot the NHC forecast points you can CLEARLY see that the CoC is well west of their track.

However, it will be interesting to see if the naked CoC ends up dying out or if it remains the primary circulation. If it dies out, the NHC track might be dead on. If it doesn't the track MAY have to shift west. Too early to say, and I'm not in the mood to be accused of being a westcaster... :-)

RGB Danny Satellite Loop
1261. P451
Quoting Grothar:


Hey P451, hope you haven't been on all night! Interesting image. It does appear to be further west. Could it be trying to form a new center, or could that be the swirl left by the old ULL. The sattelite picture of 94L looks like it is only HALF of what is was last night. (Kidding, Kidding) Just some early morning humor to wake us all up. See the image??


Nah, I sleep!




I'm pretty certain that swirl is the COC. It will be easier to see when we have a few more images in the loops. Whether or not it let's that go and tries to form a new one under the convection I don't know.

The ULL is south of Hispaniola in the Carribean.

1262. P451
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


To that point, if you plot the NHC forecast points you can CLEARLY see that the CoC is well west of their track.

However, it will be interesting to see if the naked CoC ends up dying out or if it remains the primary circulation. If it dies out, the NHC track might be dead on. If it doesn't the track MAY have to shift west. Too early to say, and I'm not in the mood to be accused of being a westcaster... :-)

RGB Danny Satellite Loop


Agreed on all points. Still a waiting game with Danny. I figured it would be.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Painful sometimes isn't it. I've learned that going back to read is useless because everything is repeated 20 or 30 times. Within 5 or 10 min your up to speed :-)


That's True! The worst kind are the ones who Post something then say oh it got lost in Cyberspace. No your post was posted but no one Responded to your comment A. It was just plain stupid B.It was over shadowed. C.You said something smart and no one wants to say anything. That means your on top so dont repost the same thing more than once. You will see this alot

As for Danny I am a little upset. I was hoping Danny came through NC/VA as a weak storm we need rain where I live
Quoting P451:
Nice Pictures, OZ!


Alright...I'm glad you liked 'em!

I wish I could've gotten these out of Bermuda while I was still there on Saturday.

I guess late is better than never...

I was prepared to go over to Elbow Beach and deliver my footage to The Weather Channel early Saturday morning, but St. George's was cut off for many hours that day. During that time, Jim Cantore and his cameraman skeedaddled and so my video has yet to be broadcast.

Soon though...very soon! :)
Based on the satelite image captured by the floater at 12:45 UTC Danny's COC is way left of the forecast headed at 270-275. I suspect a dramatic change in the forecast soon.
If the COC crosses 75W before it crosses 29N- all bets are off as the chances of an East Coast swipe south of Cape Cod increase tremendously.

However, there is still a chance the naked swirl will spin off and a new center will reform under the convection. It has certainly happened before.
Quoting largeeyes:
What in the world makes the coc keep taking off?


probably being pushed by the dry air building to its south and east... making an escape perhaps? lol take that with a grain of salt
1269. P451
EDIT: Oops, old image.
Quoting CycloneOz:


that is epic
1271. ackee
HOW COMES 94lL was made an invest when the NHC has it a low chance of development ?
The overall cloud mass of 94L is moving WSW and this is reflected in the low-level steering!
someone said that's EPIC... Could someone tell me what that means. is that the new Cool
1275. LBAR
Quoting largeeyes:
What in the world makes the coc keep taking off?


This is pretty normal for weak storms.
1276. P451
Until later....take it easy.

One last look at everything: You can see Danny getting attacked from pretty much all directions with dry air. A NW and SE surge are new today. Can't see how Danny can win this battle.

The new invest also has a long road of dry air ahead of it it would seem.

Quoting Drakoen:


The mid level maximum associated with the feature has moved closer to the convection. It should move to the West now.



Indeed; however, are you believing the path trayectories that some of the initial models are now showing for 94L? :)
Quoting ChrisCone:


probably being pushed by the dry air building to its south and east... making an escape perhaps? lol take that with a grain of salt


quoting myself here lol but one thing i will say is although the center is more exposed, it also looks more organized than when it was last exposed... so it might be a good idea to look for additional convection developing right around it. there is also an equal possibility of the center reforming near the current convection, but I think the chances of that are becoming lower as time goes on.
Quoting Nickelback:
someone said that's EPIC... Could someone tell me what that means. is that the new Cool


um kind of, it means that it is strikingly awesome
Quoting Buhdog:
earlier someone was kind of slammed for telling us to watch the gulf and boc for development....

but if you look you will see a mess in the eastern gulf from a stalled frontal boundary. Lots of storms last night on the west coast of FL....I give it a 20% chance of forming...I see some mid level turning to my untrained eye!
Link


Not impossible but it would take a while to form the wx that is currently in the east gom is being caused by UL divergence from the ULL near AL......
Quoting ackee:
HOW COMES 94lL was made an invest when the NHC has it a low chance of development ?


all it takes is a low chance to be an invest. many invests start out at low chance, because even a 30% chance of development is significant when it comes to tropical systems.
Quoting WxLogic:


New INVEST 94L...


Now this is the one we really need to keep an eye on because this could be a hurricane striking the us.
Quoting ackee:
HOW COMES 94lL was made an invest when the NHC has it a low chance of development ?
Low chance within 48 hours. Perhaps they are expecting that it may develop, but that it will take longer than 2 days to do so.
Quoting CycloneOz:


at first I thought this said "Ghetto Bay" and I thought to myself "great, just what this world doesn't need.... more ghetto"
Quoting largeeyes:
What in the world makes the coc keep taking off?


Steering flow for a weak naked swirl is WNW.


what do they see that we dont...
Good Morning,

Tropical Update
Quoting iluvjess:
Based on the satelite image captured by the floater at 12:45 UTC Danny's COC is way left of the forecast headed at 270-275. I suspect a dramatic change in the forecast soon.
well there can't be a very major change.... It can't make it much further west than it already is due to the trough.
Quoting tornadodude:


that is epic


It is a great shot! :) "Epic" is exactly what I shouted when I got to work on this particular tape! :)

When I intercept, it's not fun and games...I work very hard. For this hurricane, I worked for 26-hours straight!
Quoting ChrisCone:


at first I thought this said "Ghetto Bay" and I thought to myself "great, just what this world doesn't need.... more ghetto"


Grotto Bay is super swanky. A favorite haunt for British nobility and their mistresses! :)
So why does it leave the convection behind?
Quoting Orcasystems:



is there a wider view picture you can post? thanks
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Tropical Update


Morning 456.. nice update.. looks like you will have some traffic with the new Invest.
Quoting DestinJeff:
COC looks pretty much where NHC says it is:



27.4N,72.1W as of 5 am EST. Appears to have drifted west more than north since then, so perhaps the "NW" part of the ofcl advisory was a bit north-biased


Go to sat view and click trop/points and you will clearly see it is way west of there points
1298. ackee
94L has form well south we in the CARRB need keep good eye on this one
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is there a wider view picture you can post? thanks

Go to my blog.. take your pick.. I have about 10 there
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, nrtiwlnvragn
You were one of the first who helped me on this blog.
Saw your graphic. Not a happy early track is it? There should be a lot of blogging in the coming days, ya think?


Need to see the global model tracks. At this time a few of them recurve 94L, but that is a long term forecast subject to large errors. For example the 06Z GFS. I am not saying this will be the track, just the current indication.


1301. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:



LOL the highest winds they can find are 35kt flight level well east of the center?

Who upped this to a 55mph TS?

There's not even a 30mph surface wind within 200 miles of the LLC.....
Quoting CycloneOz:


It is a great shot! :) "Epic" is exactly what I shouted when I got to work on this particular tape! :)

When I intercept, it's not fun and games...I work very hard. For this hurricane, I worked for 26-hours straight!


Glad you were able to make that trip worthwhile. Can't wait to see footage. I haven't looked at the Key West footage yet. How did the NWS footage turn out?
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting largeeyes:
So why does it leave the convection behind?


The storms ability to organize is being disrupted by it's surrounding environment.
Quoting P451:


LOL the highest winds they can find are 35kt flight level well east of the center?

Who upped this to a 55mph TS?

There's not even a 30mph surface wind within 200 miles of the LLC.....


They also had to shift the centre to the NNE when they first got out there.. and even then.. its not much of a system.
1309. K8eCane
Quoting ackee:
94L has form well south we in the CARRB need keep good eye on this one


i have always known plus the doctor has told me that my right eye is my good one so i'll compromise and keep my good eye on 94L and my left eye on Danny
sorry thats the best i can do as the other way around would be difficult
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Glad you were able to make that trip worthwhile. Can't wait to see footage. I haven't looked at the Key West footage yet. How did the NWS footage turn out?


The NWS footage is awesome...like everything else!

Hey Junky! How about those frames I pulled from my video? Pretty cool, huh! Man, I busted my butt over there on that island nation! :)

Looking forward to receiving your DVD. Very important footage for the late winter series we're producing!

Oz---
Quoting ackee:
94L has form well south we in the CARRB need keep good eye on this one


The pattern potentially taking shape is one that would increase the risk to the Caribbean, SE coast & GOM. Troughing has been the recurring dominant feature so I am a little skeptical of the ridging building in and breaking the current pattern. I'll believe it when I see it, basically, stay tuned.
Danny is a naked swirl. He's gonna have to do better than that!
A dirl devil is more impressive than Danny. What a joke of a storm.
Looking at those few frames on the visible it looks like the COC is starting to show itself again and the movement is more westward. Is anyone else noticing this or is it my untrained eyes?
Quoting DestinJeff:


holy crap, you're right. i have included the link for others. that swirl looks almost due south of TFP #2 (far south of it)

Here is the link



Steering flow for a weak naked swirl is WNW.
1318. Grothar
Quoting ackee:
HOW COMES 94lL was made an invest when the NHC has it a low chance of development ?


If you notice, the forecasts are normally based on 48 hour increments. It does not say that after 48 hours it could have a better chance of developing further. The experts have long ago decided on a more cautious approach, lest people panic too quickly and when a systems fizzles, people have a tendency to become complacent. Years ago the airports would close 2 to 3 days before an approaching storm; only to have the systems move away. They no longer do that. They declare an invest when a system has enough potential to become a threat. I hope this answer helps.


Looks like someone has faith in 94L
The system that's freakin' me out right now is this 94L wave.

This one has a current track that is very disconcerting....and it looks like it wants to become a buzz-saw.
Quoting P451:


LOL the highest winds they can find are 35kt flight level well east of the center?

Who upped this to a 55mph TS?

There's not even a 30mph surface wind within 200 miles of the LLC.....


definitely was a tropical storm at one point, and if this data is complete it is a big change from what they found the last couple times out. Wouldn't go critical on the NHC, they were correct for upgrading the storm. I would say this storm has been in a flip flop between sub-tropical and tropical the entire time, but imagine how much confusion it would cause if the NHC kept changing the classification? Plus computer models react different once you classify a storm as tropical or change it to sub-tropical/non-tropical. That is part of the importance of correctly classifying a storm once it IS tropical, or something close to it - because these kinds of changes are progged into the models and has an, at times, dramatic effect on their predictions.
Quoting P451:


LOL the highest winds they can find are 35kt flight level well east of the center?

Who upped this to a 55mph TS?

There's not even a 30mph surface wind within 200 miles of the LLC.....


That NOAA plane was flying at a much higher altitude (10,000-12,500 ft) than the USAF planes (1,500 ft) that have recently flown the system. Since it is not a well developed cyclone its winds don't extend upwards as high. However, if it has weakened we should see when the 18Z USAF plane flys.
You both gave me my giggle for the day! Thanks.
Very cool photo OZ

Quoting CycloneOz:


Grotto Bay is super swanky. A favorite haunt for British nobility and their mistresses! :)
Quoting ChrisCone:


at first I thought this said "Ghetto Bay" and I thought to myself "great, just what this world doesn't need.... more ghetto"
Quoting CycloneOz:


The NWS footage is awesome...like everything else!

Hey Junky! How about those frames I pulled from my video? Pretty cool, huh! Man, I busted my butt over there on that island nation! :)

Looking forward to receiving your DVD. Very important footage for the late winter series we're producing!

Oz---

Great lightning pic! So far I really like what you're turning out. The Experience Bill video should be a treat. Keep us posted!
new blog
Quoting stormt:
Danny will be a force for new york and cape cod areas on saturday..Danny is getting his act together slowly the shear is supposed to lighten up so danny shoud take off and be approaching cat 2 status when he hits new york on saturday.stormt


More like a cat1.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Looking at those few frames on the visible it looks like the COC is starting to show itself again and the movement is more westward. Is anyone else noticing this or is it my untrained eyes?


we've noticed, all should keep a close eye on this trend - but it probably can not be determined yet if it is indicative of a longer term westerly track
94L looking dangerous for us in the lesser antilles if these high pressure ridges build as expected.
Quoting CycloneOz:
The system that's freakin' me out right now is this 94L wave.

This one has a current track that is very disconcerting....and it looks like it wants to become a buzz-saw.


And it looks like it's coming off the coast of Africa moving WSW. I wonder how far down it'll go...
Quoting tropicfreak:


More like a cat1.


agreed with Cat 1, for the meantime. It's kind of different though once you talk about New England. This area is extremely poorly prepared for even Cat 1 winds if they are sustained. And because of tons of excessive rainfall this year, and the last few years being flood years on rivers such as the Housatonic... many once-were dirt levies no longer exist and at the same time river levels, water table levels, and pretty much everything that has to do with moisture/water in general are way above normal. So if this thing were to strike, say... the middle of Long Island, it would only need to be a minimal tropical storm to cause hurricane like damage in terms of flooding... and it would only need to be a strong Cat 1 to cause Cat 2 like damage to property, and possibly more in terms of trees/power lines. Many homes up here are built to sustain nothing more than 90MPH winds. This is why up here when an F0 or F1 tornado hits, homes are destroyed as if it were an F3 (but the tornadoes up here are usually never bigger than a tenth of a mile wide, so wide spread damage from them is rare). That in itself is a good example of how poorly prepared this area really is for a wide spread hurricane force wind event. Also, a lot of hills so a lot of higher-elevation wind enhancement possible. I honestly believe if a large Cat 2 storm were to strike, somewhere like in my example the middle of Long Island and cut through CT - the damage would look more like a Cat 3 or 4. We have not had a Hurricane come up through in that way in decades. People bring up Hurricane Gloria, but honestly Gloria was only bad for the southeastern part of New England. I was little and living in Danbury at the time, which is only 60 or so miles west of where Gloria passed through and all we got was a 1 hour thunderstorm and the rest of the night was partly cloudy. I worry about this, because people think Gloria was a good example of the possible impacts when in reality it was a big "let down" for most of this area. The damage was great where it was greatest, but almost none existent elsewhere.
1335. MahFL
Danny going west atm anyone ?
1336. WXHam
Seems the COC just jerked to the west

New Blog!
Quoting caneluver:
A dirl devil is more impressive than Danny. What a joke of a storm.


while i agree with you right now, these type of statements could prove to be bad ha
Quoting tornadodude:


while i agree with you right now, these type of statements could prove to be bad ha


i certainly don't agree with that. Dust devils don't have large areas of convection accompanying them ;) well I guess they CAN... but I see them more on sunny dry days. Of course, I am only being a kidder, I didn't really take this THAT literally.

edit - sorry, quoted the wrong person... meh ya'll know what i meant
Quoting ChrisCone:


i certainly don't agree with that. Dust devils don't have large areas of convection accompanying them ;) well I guess they CAN... but I see them more on sunny dry days. Of course, I am only being a kidder, I didn't really take this THAT literally.


haha good call :)
p451 - awesome graphics on 1227!! TY (I feel better now)
1342. hydrus
Quoting caneluver:
A dirl devil is more impressive than Danny. What a joke of a storm.
lol..Danny is a cloud with a breeze next to it.just kidding.Who knows,if anything it is fairly large system.It could pull a fast one if conditions change quickly.
1343. VBbehr
looking @ the last 2 frames of Danny (COC) it looks like it is moving west.NHC says its wobling nw i'm very confused
even if danny racks a little more left than expected hugging the coast since its pretty lopsided to the right coastal NJ and NYC should be spared the brunt of whatever danny kicks up? is that a somewhat safe assesment? any thoughts please....any storm headed this way makes me nervous but Danny doesnt seem too impressive yet which is good
1345. VBbehr
East Coast Surf Championship is this weekend here in Va Beach. If Danny goes west,Very Bad, if east then well can REALLY have a good time
1346. VBbehr
still moving west of the tropical points
1347. VBbehr
I love talking to myself I will wait and see what happans w/Dman.


2009 Storms
Active


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
05L.DANNY

East Pacific
12E.IGNACIO

Central Pacific
95C.INVEST
11E.HILDA

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1253 UTC THU AUG 27 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090827 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090827 1200 090828 0000 090828 1200 090829 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.5N 25.6W 11.3N 28.3W 12.1N 31.2W 12.9N 34.4W

BAMD 10.5N 25.6W 10.7N 28.1W 11.0N 30.6W 11.4N 33.0W

BAMM 10.5N 25.6W 11.0N 28.4W 11.3N 31.3W 11.6N 34.1W

LBAR 10.5N 25.6W 10.8N 28.6W 11.4N 31.9W 12.0N 35.4W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 47KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 47KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200 090901 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 37.9W 13.4N 45.6W 13.3N 52.5W 13.4N 58.2W

BAMD 12.0N 35.3W 13.1N 39.0W 13.8N 41.8W 15.1N 44.1W

BAMM 12.0N 36.7W 12.8N 41.6W 12.9N 45.6W 12.7N 48.2W

LBAR 12.5N 38.9W 13.6N 45.3W 13.2N 44.6W 13.7N 46.3W

SHIP 58KTS 74KTS 76KTS 81KTS

DSHP 58KTS 74KTS 76KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 25.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 22.6W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 19.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting VBbehr:
still moving west of the tropical points


Just looked at the visible with the tracking points and I certainly agree with you! Looks to be going almost due West with very little movement to the North currently.
Quoting 69Viking:


Just looked at the visible with the tracking points and I certainly agree with you! Looks to be going almost due West with very little movement to the North currently.


Due west movement, if any. The COC is slowing down to try and allow the convection to move over. And the official forecast points START going NNW, but its drifting west... honestly they must not have eyes.
1351. juniort
I heard a meteorologist said today that 94l will not be problem for the lesser antilles at all as it will curve and go north long before it get near to the islands....any comments on this prediction