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Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
Quoting bcwolf303:
WxLogic there are so many different links to charts and maps on StormW and TampaSpins page I am trying to narrow down what I am looking at. It is information overload. I am looking for charts or maps that will help me understand what are the visual clues as far as a tropical wave becoming a named storm. And also any charts or maps that will help me understand steering better. I imagine people have different opinions on which images they find helpful. I'm trying to start with the basics and learn one thing or two things at a time. I'm no pro, obviously just very fascinated by these storms.


To me, there's way too many charts on TS's blog.
502. JLPR
it seems all of Danny's winds are on the north side
the Bahamas seem to have lucked out =]

Quoting PGIFL:
Weather 456 -
Available from South Florida Water Management Dirict, whose regulations extend into the glades.
FWH


thanks but I actually wanted the webpage
506. P451
Quoting NRAamy:
P451...please delete your entries for 2007, 2001,1995, and 1989...much appreciated...
Quoting Acemmett90:

you suck remove it


ROFL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
weather456...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/track.gif


Thanks but the webpage I was looking for. The webpage the image came from.
Quoting IKE:


Hello, from the NW side of 285.

Has it go east of NC/SC and make landfall in New England.

Looks like most of the convection stays on the east side of Danny on the GFS.


Hello from east of 87 and south of 98! Good to see lots of shear in the GOM, sure would be nice if it stayed that way through November!
Quoting bcwolf303:
WxLogic there are so many different links to charts and maps on StormW and TampaSpins page I am trying to narrow down what I am looking at. It is information overload. I am looking for charts or maps that will help me understand what are the visual clues as far as a tropical wave becoming a named storm. And also any charts or maps that will help me understand steering better. I imagine people have different opinions on which images they find helpful. I'm trying to start with the basics and learn one thing or two things at a time. I'm no pro, obviously just very fascinated by these storms.


I believe you can start with this one CIMSS... it has a little bit of everything... mostly current data and past... which you can use to correlate with current events... then you can start venturing into Forecast models such as GFS, ECMWF, etc... and making your own deductions...

Finally, read the NHC discussions as they'll give you a lot of information on how High/Lows interact and other weather events and their behavior.
Quoting P451:


ROFL

in all serousness i would removed felix from the list
Quoting IKE:


To me, there's way too many charts on TS's blog.


LOL
Quoting Weather456:


Thanks but the webpage I was looking for. The webpage the image came from.


my bad...here ya go.....
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260384&_dad=portal&_sche ma=PORTAL
Acemett...Please don't say the f word...

I'm outa here before I get banned by Taz...see ya...
Ike which charts do you follow/ find most helpful?
Quoting IKE:


To me, there's way too many charts on TS's blog.

ike its a weather blog what do you expect lol
Quoting bcwolf303:
WxLogic there are so many different links to charts and maps on StormW and TampaSpins page I am trying to narrow down what I am looking at. It is information overload. I am looking for charts or maps that will help me understand what are the visual clues as far as a tropical wave becoming a named storm. And also any charts or maps that will help me understand steering better. I imagine people have different opinions on which images they find helpful. I'm trying to start with the basics and learn one thing or two things at a time. I'm no pro, obviously just very fascinated by these storms.


I haven't seen him around much this year, probably because I've too busy to do much lurking, but StormJunkie has a page with tons of information - from the basics on up.....
www.stormjunkie.com
Quoting NRAamy:
Acemett...Please don't say the f word...

I'm outa here before I get banned by Taz...see ya...

ok dont you mean FAY lol jk

Sorry - I checked the coordinates and now I'm clear on which is which. Carry on. Nothing to see here.

D'oh!

520. MahFL
Danny is moving WEST, we are all doomed !
Quoting NOLA2005:


I haven't seen him around much this year, probably because I've too busy to do much lurking, but StormJunkie has a page with tons of information - from the basics on up.....
www.stormjunkie.com
and this one

Link
Quoting DestinJeff:


do you want the Homepage? color me confused.


yea
Quoting NRAamy:
Acemett...Please don't say the f word...

I'm outa here before I get banned by Taz...see ya...


TaZ had nothing to do with it
WxLogic I appreciate that. Thank you. Book marked it.
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Patrap, with this last image you posted, according to Dr. Masters & the NHC the ULL is supposed to migrate to the west and weaken. How much of an effect could this have on the current fix of Danny? Could it "possibly" (note the quotes) steer Danny a little further west? It just appears from the Water Vaport loops that there is another strong swirl much lower that where the official position is located.
wow tropical storm danny north 24.9 west 70.3 its still moving wnw at 18 mph this is not good for the usa.
this did not deserved to be named a TS. TD, maybe. The winds associated with the center cant be over 20 knots. I mean just look at it. Anwyauy, be back this evening.



Shear has slackened to around 5-15 kts around Danny. Should give it room to develop this afternoon. Might actually look tropical by the 11pm update.
530. IKE
Quoting Acemmett90:

ike its a weather blog what do you expect lol


I understand your point. I just don't need to scroll through 100 different charts.

That thing is a killer ,ain't it!
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow tropical storm danny north 24.9 west 70.3 its still moving wnw at 18 mph this is not good for the usa.

ya think lol
"bangs head on textbook"
Quoting IKE:


I understand your point. I just don't need to scroll through 100 different charts.


you have point to
Thanks NOLA
12Z NOGAPS... shifted a bit to the Right.
12Z CMC... also shifted a bit further to the Right.

With this right shift it sure looks they're starting to lean on GFS backyard.

Looks like points N of Mass... should get some "direct" effect out of this one... more like Bill did.
KEEPER..I did not say that Taz banned me...he had nothing to do with it...like duh....
538. IKE
12Z CMC.....has trended east.

CMC seems to over-blow Danny. Then again, it's showing the E and F storms in the CATL.
Quoting DestinJeff:
First signs of some higher cloudtops closer in to the COC (NE side, flowing right to left at about 70W,25N. Click to enlarge.


It looks like its actually wrapping in some moisture - and the water vapor loop shows it pinching off that dry air a bit
I don't quite understand the requests for removing Felix from the records of the last 20 years. Fair enough, the last Felix was a cat 5 in 2007 and was subsequently retired in spring 2008. So no more Felixes for the future. However, we cannot simply delete the storms named Felix from history. If you choose to delete the memory of Felix along with the name from your mind, alright, but if P451 compiles a statistic for the tendencies where F storms hit, he needs to include them.

Or is there some kind of humour I just don't get? Enlighten me please.
Forecasts indicate September is gonna bring the rain.
Due to Dr. Masters expert evaluation of TS Danny, and current imagery analysis...the XtremeHurricanes.com team will not intercept this storm.

However, Hurricane Bill was intercepted in Bermuda this past Friday and an "Experience Hurricane Bill" YouTube production will be created and released at the end of this weekend.

CycloneOz---
513. NRAamy 4:55 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Acemett...Please don't say the f word...

I'm outa here before I get banned by Taz...see ya...
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Quoting NRAamy:
KEEPER..I did not say that Taz banned me...he had nothing to do with it...like duh....
duh
545. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z NOGAPS... shifted a bit to the Right.
12Z CMC... also shifted a bit further to Right.

With this right shift it sure looks they're starting to lean on GFS backyard.

Looks like points N of Mass... should get some "direct" effect out of this one... more like Bill did.


You're right. 12Z NOGAPS.....is off-shore with Dan the man all the way up the east coast. Also shows a system cruising through the EATL.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
513. NRAamy 4:55 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Acemett...Please don't say the f word...

I'm outa here before I get banned by Taz...see ya...
Action: Quote | Ignore User


duh

lol im confused let not fight over somthing this stupid
Living on the OBX - what does everyone think?
Does anybody have the link to the 12Z GFS?
Dry air and shear affecting Danny

Tropical Update



Quoting obxnagshead:
Living on the OBX - what does everyone think?


I think you are lucky - beautiful place.
Quoting Weather456:


yea


Hi 456! I finally replyed to that email. Better late than never, eh?
OK, what are the chances, based on the latest GFS model, that Danny will come ashore at Hatteras Saturday night?
456 - How come your tracks are not the same as the historical tracks here?
554. IKE
Quoting caneswatch:
Does anybody have the link to the 12Z GFS?


Link
555. IKE
Quoting Rgraham:
OK, what are the chances, based on the latest GFS model, that Danny will come ashore at Hatteras Saturday night?


Based on the latest GFS...slim.
Quoting mikatnight:


Hi 456! I finally replyed to that email. Better late than never, eh?


yea it was helpful thanks much
Quoting obxnagshead:
Living on the OBX - what does everyone think?


You'll be on the left side of the storm - minimal effects if any
Quoting IKE:


Link


Thank you
Quoting IKE:


You're right. 12Z NOGAPS.....is off-shore with Dan the man all the way up the east coast. Also shows a system cruising through the EATL.


I noticed that too... coinciding with GFS but a bit slower.
but the cmc has had this system skirting much closer than all the other models the whole time...cmc was good with bill...wondering what will play out with Danny...besides...with weaker storms they don't usually have enuf stacking to be pulled by the high level troughs as much as a stronger storm with plenty of vertical stacking
Getting some good winds and getting very dark here in PSL,FL. Anybody over on coast area-Jensen,Jupiter,Stuart hows it look over there? I am on wets side by 95 it's just now getting here but looks ominous to the east.
Why such a big difference between the NAM and GFS? Trying to understand.
doesn't CMC stand for "Can't Model Crap"? has this model's performance been better this year?
Quoting adjusterx:
Getting some good winds and getting very dark here in PSL,FL. Anybody over on coast area-Jensen,Jupiter,Stuart hows it look over there? I am on wets side by 95 it's just now getting here but looks ominous to the east.


Not too bad here yet. Only a few clouds but I assume its coming.
Quoting IKE:


Based on the latest GFS...slim.


so based off one model run? cmon ike you know how much they change...
Quoting taistelutipu:
I don't quite understand the requests for removing Felix from the records of the last 20 years. Fair enough, the last Felix was a cat 5 in 2007 and was subsequently retired in spring 2008. So no more Felixes for the future. However, we cannot simply delete the storms named Felix from history. If you choose to delete the memory of Felix along with the name from your mind, alright, but if P451 compiles a statistic for the tendencies where F storms hit, he needs to include them.

Or is there some kind of humour I just don't get? Enlighten me please.


Where did you get this information from? Never heard it before. Har du fott min beskjed?
Quoting pearlandaggie:
doesn't CMC stand for "Can't Model Crap"? has this model's performance been better this year?


yeah, its been altered
the differences are in how each computer model reads the troughs, how strong they are, how strong or weak they THINK they will be when the get to the coast, etc...basically, different computers = different scenerios
569. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
doesn't CMC stand for "Can't Model Crap"? has this model's performance been better this year?


It's been better than it was in 2008, but...it spins Danny as a significant cane going just east of NC. Just can't see it being that strong. Maybe it'll prove me wrong.
cmc was as close as you can get with bill...even in the 5 day and everyone knows you shouldn't listen to anything past a 3 day
572. IKE
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


so based off one model run? cmon ike you know how much they change...


Here's what he asked....

"Quoting Rgraham:
OK, what are the chances, based on the latest GFS model, that Danny will come ashore at Hatteras Saturday night?".....

based on the latest run of the GFS, it has Danny going east of NC.
Quoting adjusterx:
Getting some good winds and getting very dark here in PSL,FL. Anybody over on coast area-Jensen,Jupiter,Stuart hows it look over there? I am on wets side by 95 it's just now getting here but looks ominous to the east.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah, its been altered


that's cool...i wasn't aware of the modifications!

thanks!

you too, Ike!
Quoting WxLogic:


I noticed that too... coinciding with GFS but a bit slower.
Quoting IKE:


You're right. 12Z NOGAPS.....is off-shore with Dan the man all the way up the east coast. Also shows a system cruising through the EATL.


That link comes up as being totally untrustworthy. Is this the true link?

This Connection is Untrusted
You have asked Firefox to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.

What Should I Do?

If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.

Technical Details

www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)

thak you StormW...can always count on you! so who ever posted about hatteras...read stormW's blog
Danny should be heading on a general WNW to NW later tonight into tomorrow... based on the 15Z Steering maps... for the past 6HRs the Bermuda High western region has been weakening some...

Strong tropical wave south of the cape verdes showing signs of organisation. This could be invest 94L
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS /DANNY/ AUG. 26, 2009 ISSUED 12:20 P.M. EDT


Hey StormW, Grothar here (again). On the water vapor loop, as we all see, the convection is displaced well NE of the center. When the ULL dissipates, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and the NHC, could it steer the center more west? It looks as if the center wants to move more west the NW.
Get ready for the Doomsday HWRF model run results for 12Z. YIKES!

581. IKE
Quoting klaatuborada:


That link comes up as being totally untrustworthy. Is this the true link?

This Connection is Untrusted
You have asked Firefox to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.

What Should I Do?

If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.

Technical Details

www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)



It's the link to the NOGAPS model run. I would never put anything on here that would mess someone's computer up.
Quoting klaatuborada:


That link comes up as being totally untrustworthy. Is this the true link?

This Connection is Untrusted
You have asked Firefox to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.

What Should I Do?

If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.

Technical Details

www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)



Right-click on links in this blog and select "open in a new tab" works best for me. The afforementioned link is good btw.
575. klaatuborada

Yes, you can rest assured that the NAVY won't be putting viruses on your PC...

All that message is telling you is that their Security Certificate has expired and therefore can't be validated until they buy a new one... and who knows when they'll do that. They may not have the budget for t.
action in the gulf?
Quoting leftovers:
action in the gulf?

afternoon thunderstorms..
This does look mighty good at the moment, not much model support.....

Hello. Just found this website and blog. I am a native of Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of NC. We certainly have had our share of hurricanes through the years. With Bill recently passing by offshore causing beach erosion and flattening some of the dune line it has made the only road off the island vulnerable to washout if Danny were to come our way as a minimal hurricane as early forecasts predict.
I watch StormW's blog personally...if the military trusts him...then i do...
Quoting WxLogic:
575. klaatuborada

Yes, you can rest assured that the NAVY won't be putting viruses on your PC...

All that message is telling you is that their Security Certificate has expired and therefore can't be validated until they buy a new one... and who knows when they'll do that. They may not have the budget for t.


WXlogic is quite correct. I receive the same message with no harm. Those sites are quite secure. I would not recommend the same with other sites, with which you are not familiar or do not trust.
govt should start selling ads for their websites. help pay for the bills. i know for sure they have plans to put cookies on their sites
RE: Grothar.

Jå, jag har fått din brev, tack så mycket. På ögonblick är jag på arbetet i min byrå. Kanske kan jag skriva svar ikväll men jag har inte haft tid för att skriva någonting om stormar. Förlåt.

About the Felix entries. If you go back to comment 489 in this blog, P451 has listed all F storms since 1989 including all storms named Felix, namely the F storms in 1989, 1995, 2001 and 2007. This was done in order to find out whether F storms have tendency to hit Florida or not. Results are found under the list.

After this comment you'll find some requests to remove those from the list and I was asking why. Maybe it is a kind of joke I don't get and apparently I'm not the only one since you just asked this question. Probably it isn't very important.
NHC interested in the CV wave.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN


595. IKE
Danny needs a new wardrobe....

said it last night, will say it again today... the actual COC will make the gfs, gfdl, ukmet, etc, all shift to the left shortly...now that danny has been named, updates will be more frequent...and think it is gonna track more to the cmc model than the others....
Quoting mikatnight:


Hey there ITC - you sure you don't wanna change your thumbnail to this?



(sorry folks, I won't post it again - it just cracks me up...)

it preey funny but not as funny as the stormtop outhouse
Tig!
Quoting IKE:


It's the link to the NOGAPS model run. I would never put anything on here that would mess someone's computer up.


I'm sure you wouldn't. Thought you'd like to know that that popped up when I tried to access. Might not only be me.
600. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
NHC interested in the CV wave.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON DANNY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN




Get ready for 94L. This one looks like a long-runner.
Quoting leftovers:
action in the gulf?


Very high wind shear in the Gulf at the moment, although SST's are very high. Those flare-ups are quite common here in Florida during the summer. Always something watch though, remember Claudette??
Models should inch more left.
603. BGMom
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Forecasts indicate September is gonna bring the rain.


Boy - I hope that will include the Atlanta area! I tried to mow today and looked like Pigpen on Snoopy - walking in a big cloud of dirt.
Quoting OcracokeISL:
Hello. Just found this website and blog. I am a native of Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of NC. We certainly have had our share of hurricanes through the years. With Bill recently passing by offshore causing beach erosion and flattening some of the dune line it has made the only road off the island vulnerable to washout if Danny were to come our way as a minimal hurricane as early forecasts predict.


Just left your little island w/ my family! Love Howards Pub! You guys will be ok down there, OBXer's eat these storms for breakfast.
Convection is finally starting to find is way around the north to the northwest side. Maybe it will put its clothes on soon
Quoting IKE:


Get ready for 94L. This one looks like a long-runner.


Yep...Should be another one to watch .
12Z GFDL also bullish on a strong hurricane moving up the coast:

Quoting iluvjess:
Models should inch more left.


That's what Storm W is thinking as well in his update.
Quoting IKE:


Get ready for 94L. This one looks like a long-runner.

wait a second bill started off this way as a yellow circle and who was the idiot who said this is gonna be a slow season lol
Quoting stoormfury:
Strong tropical wave south of the cape verdes shoing signs of organisation. This could be invest 94L

the same thing I was saying
Quoting taistelutipu:
RE: Grothar.

Jå, jag har fått din brev, tack så mycket. På ögonblick är jag på arbetet i min byrå. Kanske kan jag skriva svar ikväll men jag har inte haft tid för att skriva någonting om stormar. Förlåt


Look Earl! He's speakin' gibberish!
Quoting tiggeriffic:
said it last night, will say it again today... the actual COC will make the gfs, gfdl, ukmet, etc, all shift to the left shortly...now that danny has been named, updates will be more frequent...and think it is gonna track more to the cmc model than the others....


I agree..I dont think the 12Z runs are set in stone..we need to have a more consistency with each later run...
hey ya floodman!
614. IKE
Quoting Acemmett90:

wait a second bill started off this way as a yellow circle and who was the idiot who said this is gonna be a slow season lol


2nd attempt to post this....

It wasn't me. I've had 10-4-2 as my numbers since late June.
i live in wilmington nc and i usually dont get too concerned unless warnings are posted.
watches? NAH been thru too many watches that werent needed in the long run
but if a warning gets put out, i start to listen
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
107 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
SATURDAY MORNING TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Quoting IKE:
12Z GFDL


12Z HWRF


The HWRF produces a 947mb Cat 3/4 Beast as usual...and just grazes Cape Cod and extreme Northeast Maine with winds.

The GFDL takes a 965 Cat 2 through Rhode Island with the right front quadrant into eastern Massachusetts including Boston.

Hopefully Danny stays East...
here we go again.
Quoting Acemmett90:

wait a second bill started off this way as a yellow circle and who was the idiot who said this is gonna be a slow season lol


It is a slow season, isn't it? 8-4-2 still my guess...
Quoting IKE:


2nd attempt to post this....

It wasn't me. I've had 10-4-2 as my numbers since late June.

yah i know but people need to learn that the last few year have been way above normal
Starting to get real cloudy here in Tally nothing comin yet. Prolly some rain late afternoon. Now that i'm here now gotta worry more about severe storms. S Fla usually gets only isolated severe.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


The HWRF produces a 947mb Cat 3/4 Beast as usual...and just grazes Cape Cod and extreme Northeast Maine with winds.

The GFDL takes a 965 Cat 2 through Rhode Island with the right front quadrant into eastern Massachusetts including Boston.

Hopefully Danny stays East...


That scenario, for Boston, would not be pretty.
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
here we go again.


the way that wave looks..the crayon is wrong..they need to buy a red one.
Quoting Vortex95:
Starting to get real cloudy here in Tally nothing comin yet. Prolly some rain late afternoon. Now that i'm here now gotta worry more about severe storms. S Fla usually gets only isolated severe.

at 3pm like clock work lol
It wasn't me. I've had 10-4-2 as my numbers since late June.

I've had 36 - 24 - 36 since I was 18....how do I rank?
not seeing danny pull a bill...bill was bigger and stronger at this point of the game...could be steered by the upper level troughs... danny doesn't have the stacking that bill had to be steered so early on...still saying he is gonna be more west of the general concesus...closer to the cmc...if not even more west
Quoting JupiterFL:


That scenario, for Boston, would not be pretty.


Yeah. I just checked the max surface winds and despite the low pressure, the winds were only 72knots - Cat 1. Still bad, but damage gets exponentially worse as you go from 70 to 80 or 90 knots winds...especially in New England with a lot of old growth trees.
Here's the thing about Danny...There are no Storms to the West of its COC. Most of the Storms are on its northeast side. So Even though Danny may make a Slight NC landfall most likely it would bring little Rain due to the fact there are no storms on its east side..Am I right?
Quoting Acemmett90:

at 3pm like clock work lol


i guess SFLA will finally get danny by 3:00 than..;)
There we go... we have possible TC development from the CV wave. UKM, GFS, and NOGAPS are hinting on it and now NHC has officially marked it with a yellow circle (<30%).
Quoting justalurker:


i guess SFLA will finally get danny by 3:00 than..;)

lol no we mean the normal daily thunderstorms in fl
Quoting klaatuborada:


That link comes up as being totally untrustworthy. Is this the true link?

This Connection is Untrusted
You have asked Firefox to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.

Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.

What Should I Do?

If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.

Technical Details

www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)



I allowed it on my comp. and everything was fine.
Quoting justalurker:


the way that wave looks..the crayon is wrong..they need to buy a red one.

its just the first they mention it if it continues then at 8pm it will be orange and also i think by the end of the day we will have 94L
When will Danny enter the gulf stream? Isnt that where they expect it to develop even more?
Quoting NRAamy:
It wasn't me. I've had 10-4-2 as my numbers since late June.

I've had 36 - 24 - 36 since I was 18....how do I rank?


Link Please
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah. I just checked the max surface winds and despite the low pressure, the winds were only 72knots - Cat 1. Still bad, but damage gets exponentially worse as you go from 70 to 80 or 90 knots winds...especially in New England with a lot of old growth trees.


Thats not too bad and probably more realistic. I wonder how fast he would be moving at that time.
Quoting Acemmett90:

lol no we mean the normal daily thunderstorms in fl


yes i know..being sarcastic, some of the afternoon storms here are much stronger that what danny is producing..
Wow, too many people think like me here. I mentioned the Cone of Silence just the other day... hmmm

Thanks for beautiful link. It may not have a certificate but it sure is purty!

Can't get the Jet Stream map to load for US on main page, but it looks like the high pressure system controlling our weather right now is stalled. Is Danny s'posed t ride up the right side of the stalled high pressure system, or is this front going to move before Danny, stalling him and giving him time to get a little stronger, and then have him ride the left side, causing him to stay more to the left and come up and shake my hand, or at least my trees?
In the GOM....off the west coast of Florida really starting to flare up storms, which are typical. Will be interesting to keep watching though.

Also keeping an eye on the wave off of Africa.
Quoting mikatnight:


It is a slow season, isn't it? 8-4-2 still my guess...

actully it relitivly normal becuase the last few year have been above normal
Quoting justalurker:


yes i know..being sarcastic, some of the afternoon storms here are much stronger that what danny is producing..

lol good point
Looks to me like the CoC with Danny is really slowing to a crawl, and also appears to be stretching east to west, becoming more oval. Would be good if he stalls and doesn't get any further west...

Danny RGB Loop
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
here we go again.


Could they at least use a stencil of some sort to make the circle round. It looks like shakes the clown drew it.
Quoting Nickelback:
Here's the thing about Danny...There are no Storms to the West of its COC. Most of the Storms are on its northeast side. So Even though Danny may make a Slight NC landfall most likely it would bring little Rain due to the fact there are no storms on its east side..Am I right?


No storms on W side yet....
Quoting IKE:


LOL...omg...great numbers.:)))))))))))

Now you've got my mind where it doesn't belong. Thanks NRA!
forget danny, i want these coordinates coming my way..;))))
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
here we go again.

looks like a tilted W
Nothing to watch in the GOMEX.
653. IKE
Quoting Nickelback:
Here's the thing about Danny...There are no Storms to the West of its COC. Most of the Storms are on its northeast side. So Even though Danny may make a Slight NC landfall most likely it would bring little Rain due to the fact there are no storms on its east side..Am I right?


True....IF it stays that way.
With the GFDL, HWRF, and the CMC all showing Cat 2-3 canes based on the new data, the NE should be on high alert.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Looks to me like the CoC with Danny is really slowing to a crawl, and also appears to be stretching east to west, becoming more oval. Would be good if he stalls and doesn't get any further west...

Danny RGB Loop


If he does... then GFS would be pretty much the model to follow on this one as on the next update it should be to the right of the forecasted point.
NO matter how crappy danny looks now, once we gets in to the gulf stream, even for just a little while, he will develop more.
661. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


Your purple picture doesn't do you justice...


I liked the picture of herself she used as her avatar a couple of years ago.

Now I'm really in the gutter.

Back to Danny....

numbers don't matter anymore if ONE big one hits and people die tho...just saying
Quoting JupiterFL:


That scenario, for Boston, would not be pretty.


Very similar to what Bob did. Bob hit Rhode Island hardest, here on Cape we got East side. This scenario gives RI west side, Cape East and watch out Boston.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Could they at least use a stencil of some sort to make the circle round. It looks like shakes the clown drew it.


The guy that writes those has his bowling league on Tuesday nights. he struggles on Wednesday's.
The key near term model run will be this evenings 00Z. The Gulfstream IV will be releasing dropsondes in this pattern this afternoon.





Latest Recon Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT WED 26 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0505A DANNY
C. 27/1430Z
D. 27.4N 74.1W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0605A DANNY
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 29.1N 74.8W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 28/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL CONTINUE FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS ON DANNY THROUGH 28/0800Z.

Quoting Acemmett90:

actully it relitivly normal becuase the last few year have been above normal


True. The 50 year average is 10 named (correct me if I'm wrong). Certainly a slow start, and most of the "predicters" call for slightly below average. Guess it really depends on if one gets hit. If you get hit, it's busy.
Is SeaStep here? Was asking about the SFMR and shallow water last night.

The SFMR is known to have a high bias when the water depth is less than 30 M and to have a low bias with very high rain rates. They are both correctable...I think (maybe just the rain fall-effected data)...but aren't as of yet. Always tweaking the obs...

A good paper detailing it: www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/05-07reports/JHT07_Carswell_midyear.pdf

Neither of these has to do with water in the air but with the effect of both circumstances on foaming on the water surface.
"Could they at least use a stencil of some sort to make the circle round. It looks like shakes the clown drew it."

Based on the avitar I think nramy draws those circles.
is that a pertabation in the itcz at 40w. this area should be watched for any signs of cyclogenesis
now the "west wishcasters" has something to talk about again
I liked the picture of herself she used as her avatar a couple of years ago.

yeah, now I'm incognito...

;)
Quoting NRAamy:
I liked the picture of herself she used as her avatar a couple of years ago.

yeah, now I'm incognito...

;)

this is what happen when guy are on a blog lol
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The key near term model run will be this evenings 00Z. The Gulfstream IV will be releasing dropsondes in this pattern this afternoon.





Latest Recon Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT WED 26 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0505A DANNY
C. 27/1430Z
D. 27.4N 74.1W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0605A DANNY
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 29.1N 74.8W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 28/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL CONTINUE FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS ON DANNY THROUGH 28/0800Z.



question, why the GOM?
675. IKE
Looks to me like dry-air is getting into Danny....

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The key near term model run will be this evenings 00Z. The Gulfstream IV will be releasing dropsondes in this pattern this afternoon.





Latest Recon Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT WED 26 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0505A DANNY
C. 27/1430Z
D. 27.4N 74.1W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0605A DANNY
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 29.1N 74.8W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 28/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL CONTINUE FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS ON DANNY THROUGH 28/0800Z.


it looks like a BLANK!!!
677. 900MB
Getting a little convection to the north of coc.


Does seem to be going more west than anything right now, or is it just me?
Quoting NRAamy:
It wasn't me. I've had 10-4-2 as my numbers since late June.

I've had 36 - 24 - 36 since I was 18....how do I rank?


That was good! I wonder how many minds are in the gutter after that one and just won't admit it LOL! So much for a slow season with those numbers!

I still say we could get an active season with the peak still over 2 weeks away and then lets not forget that other little peak in the beginning of October. The GOM waters stay warm for a long time after the air tempertures in the fall start to cool!
.
Gonna be a massive funeral in Boston on Saturday. THAT should be interesting.
test
Quoting justalurker:


question, why the GOM?


I would think due to the upper level low spinning over LA. Measure the upper level winds which should be NE due to the low.
Quoting jeffs713:
lol! baby got back?

Your posts are showing just fine. Maybe you have yourself on ignore?
NRAamy - tell me your not 4'10" tall...

NRT - The dropsonde pattern looks like a tractor...
they should name the next storm teddy for ted kennedy honer
Danny's low may just decouple from the system and run into Florida with the rest of the heavy rain moving up the coast.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Is SeaStep here? Was asking about the SFMR and shallow water last night.

The SFMR is known to have a high bias when the water depth is less than 30 M and to have a low bias with very high rain rates. They are both correctable...I think (maybe just the rain fall-effected data)...but aren't as of yet. Always tweaking the obs...

A good paper detailing it: www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/05-07reports/JHT07_Carswell_midyear.pdf

Neither of these has to do with water in the air but with the effect of both circumstances on foaming on the water surface.


Yes! Thanks! Will check it out. Appreciated.
Quoting obsessedwweather:
In the GOM....off the west coast of Florida really starting to flare up storms, which are typical. Will be interesting to keep watching though.

Also keeping an eye on the wave off of Africa.


Our local weather guy in Tallahassee at Noon (on WCTV) said that according to some of the local computer models, there is a hint that a Surface Low may try to form today or tomorrow in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Pretty much all it would do is enhance our rain chances on Thursday and Friday in Tallahassee but something to keep an eye on I guess. Looking at the Long Range radar from Tallahassee, there is some slight spinning going on but nothing very strong.
Quoting largeeyes:
Gonna be a massive funeral in Boston on Saturday. THAT should be interesting.


Good point. Didn't think of that.
Quoting Dakster:
NRAamy - tell me your not 4'10" tall...

NRT - The dropsonde pattern looks like a tractor...


Don't tell Aubie
What would that formation of dropsondes be called?
Quoting Seastep:


Yes! Thanks! Will check it out. Appreciated.

No prob. Happened to see that the URL is getting mangled by the blog here, you might need to copy and paste it. I have it set up just fine in the post...

Addendum: I think jeffs kids have joined us...or something.
Quoting Vortex95:
Starting to get real cloudy here in Tally nothing comin yet. Prolly some rain late afternoon. Now that i'm here now gotta worry more about severe storms. S Fla usually gets only isolated severe.


When I worked as a delivery driver in Tallahassee around 1990, we'd stop loading our trucks at 3:45, in anticipation of the regular-as-clockwork 4pm shower. After it passed, we'd wheel the pallets of goods out to our trucks and resume loading. One day the boss comes out and asks why we're sitting around.
"It's 3:45." (points at sky)
Boss: "oh." and walks back in the office.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would think due to the upper level low spinning over LA. Measure the upper level winds which should be NE due to the low.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would think due to the upper level low spinning over LA. Measure the upper level winds which should be NE due to the low.


thanks for the info.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Your posts are showing just fine. Maybe you have yourself on ignore?
i'm posting from my cell phone, and everytime i reloaded the page, it reposted it. sorry. :/

it support development of 94L and danny
Quoting largeeyes:
What would that formation of dropsondes be called?


AOML calls it "Drop Plan"
Yellow circle on interest off African coast now...
its look like to me the models will move more to the west at 5pm or 8 pm tonight.
Westward
week #2
You don't think that if a Hurricane was going to hit the NE they would still have a funeral?

Talk about setting people up for trouble.
For the GOM discussion, it is not the usual afternoon storms. It is associated with a front.
Does anyone have a latest imagery off the Afrocan coast??
Tracks should definately come left
maybe two Yellow circle soon off African coast i see big wave on african to in the next 72 hours..
Wow. Battle of wits between the regular operational GFS and the ensemble mean. Come on ensemble. Go. Go. Go. That would be very nice.

For those who missed this earlier:


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sorry for the multiple posts all. cell-phone posting does not agree with WU blogs...
Quoting 900MB:
Getting a little convection to the north of coc.


Does seem to be going more west than anything right now, or is it just me?


If you got time look at my entry this morning #579. Hope we are both wrong.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The key near term model run will be this evenings 00Z. The Gulfstream IV will be releasing dropsondes in this pattern this afternoon.....


Interesting... Seems they want to see the depth of the Cut Off Low... should be critical in the possible path of Danny.
Quoting Acemmett90:

its getting old and it not funny any more this is not old though
Can somone post the WS OUT house

It wasn't on purpose and WS is not a blog topic.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
12Z

ERIKA Damn NExt is the dreaded fredy or the f storm
Quoting jeffs713:
i'm posting from my cell phone, and everytime i reloaded the page, it reposted it. sorry. :/


I can't get that stupid song out of my head now LOL!
Quoting jeffs713:
i'm posting from my cell phone, and everytime i reloaded the page, it reposted it. sorry. :/


Sir Mix-a-Lot back off of the PDA. The remix isn't as catchy as the original.
Quoting Seastep:
For the GOM discussion, it is not the usual afternoon storms. It is associated with a front.


florida people better thank that front
Quoting Seastep:
For the GOM discussion, it is not the usual afternoon storms. It is associated with a front.
NAM developed something there in 12 to 24 hours.
Quoting atmoaggie:

It wasn't on purpose and WS is not a blog topic.

check your grammer
you mean "it" wasn't on porpus
Quoting K8eCane:


florida people better thank that front


Thank you front...
Quoting jeffs713:
sorry for the multiple posts all. cell-phone posting does not agree with WU blogs...


I know what you are saying. Mine won't let me log into my account for some reason.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow. Battle of wits between the regular operational GFS and the ensemble mean. Come on ensemble. Go. Go. Go. That would be very nice.



I guess by Sept. 10th we'll know who won... hehe.
Quoting Dakster:


Thank you front...

personly i hope the front gets stuck
Quoting K8eCane:


florida people better thank that front


Thanks Mr. Front.
Quoting Acemmett90:

personly i hope the front gets stuck


Why?
Quoting Acemmett90:

check your grammer
you mean "it" wasn't on porpus

Check your credentials, my concern about your grammar approval, and your spelling. And I meant exactly what I posted.

"It wasn't on purpose and WS is not a blog topic."
Surfing in Virginia this weekend will be better than usual!
#724 Yes we Floridians can thank the fronts now.
But I fear later in the season those fronts will be the bane of west Florida.
Latest obs from the Recon.

Couple things of note. This was the lowest pressure they found - 1007.2mb which is a drop of 2 since the 11AM update.

The center also moved from the 11AM position of 24.9N 70.3W to 25.0N 70.8W ( 0.1N, 0.5W) or just north of due west.

Also of interest compared to yesterday. At a slightly lower flighty height, yesterday there was a dewpoint at 1000 feet of 59F. Today at a slightly higher level 1500 feet, there was a dewpoint of 72F.

Much moister lower levels which should contribute to more instability and convection down the road. Still might be dry air in the mid-level as evidenced by the arc clouds to the north of the CoC.

Ob Time:17:48:30Z
Location: 25.033N 70.867W 958.9 mb

Flight Height:(~ 28.32 inHg) 431 meters (~ 1,414 feet)

Surface Pressure (Extrapolated) 1007.2 mb

Flight Level Winds: From 107 at 6 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 6.9 mph)

Temp at Flight Level: 22.5C(~ 72.5F)
Dewpt at Flight Level: 22.5C (~ 72.5F)
Quoting K8eCane:


florida people better thank that front


Most probably. Anticipating those model runs as they should get some good data to plug into the models.
The African wave is organizing very nicely. We should see an orange circle by tomorrow. Bands have setup in the southern quadrant and it looks like a MLC is becoming better established.
Quoting Dakster:


Why?

so we dont get hit
Does it appear to anyone else that Danny is not vertically stacked yet? Looks like the upper level circulation is trying to finally come over the lower level
Quoting atmoaggie:

Check your credentials, my concern about your grammar approval, and your spelling. And I meant exactly what I posted.

"It wasn't on purpose and WS is not a blog topic."

well then lets get back to the tropics
Quoting Dakster:


Thank you front...


haha thats good
Quoting mkmand:
now the "west wishcasters" has something to talk about again


Sad, but some folks don't feel they get the full "blog" experience unless they can call someone a ****caster. Sad.
745. 786
How are the steering currents looking for the CV wave. I have heard that when a set up has been around for while it stays in place...does it look like the Caribbean will be lucky this season?

NRA no offense and sorry to burst any mans bubbles but 36-24-36 is not humanly possible. Unless one had surgery to make that possible the body simply does not grow that way - hips and shoulders are never the exact same and one would have to break some rib cages to be a 24 waist with a 36 hip. Those were the dimensions stated by the creators of the barbie doll were she human sized.
well then lets get back to the tropics

yeah, good luck with that!
Quoting Acemmett90:

so we dont get hit


Except when one forms in the BOC or GOM. Then that front is our enemy...
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Still might be dry air in the mid-level as evidenced by the arc clouds to the north of the CoC


Arc clouds! Like the Doc mentioned yesterday. I learned something!
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

just what we nedd, another tramp


Or you could use an english teacher.
Quoting Dakster:


Except when one forms in the BOC or GOM. Then that front is our enemy...

well atleast we wont get the storm surge which is the most damaging part of the storm
786...it was a joke...

Quoting NRAamy:
786...it was a joke...



Some people just don't get it...

We like you regardless of your dimensions anyways!

Quoting mikatnight:


Arc clouds! Like the Doc mentioned yesterday. I learned something!


Ha Ha. The weather keeps teaching me things too... Humility is a common theme.
Quoting Acemmett90:

well atleast we wont get the storm surge which is the most damaging part of the storm


A cat 5 is still a cat 5, even if we don't get the 30 foot wall of water with it.
Those dimensions seem possible for storm Hippos!
Decimeters I think!
Quoting Dakster:


A cat 5 is still a cat 5, even if we don't get the 30 foot wall of water with it.

good point
So far the Recon has only found surface winds around 25mph...although they haven't been in the convection to the east of the CoC yet...

They're on their way there though, so we should see if Danny has 45mph winds or not here within an hour or two.
765. 786
Well I thought this was a weather blog apologies
767. slavp
Quoting NRAamy:
my magnificent purple fat folds are great at predicting the weather....when they drip sweat...it's hot outside!
Talk about Heat Index!!!! lol
oh..its 2:30 school just got out in the east coast..we are in trouble now!!

i see two sheared systems the stronger one danny and the stalled front in the eastern gulf keeping an eye on it
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
So far the Recon has only found surface winds around 25mph...although they haven't been in the convection to the east of the CoC yet...

They're on their way there though, so we should see if Danny has 45mph winds or not here within an hour or two.


do you still see danny, strengthen to cat 1 as stormw suggested, due to the current conditions.
Quoting seminolesfan:
Ooops...what have I stumbled into this time?

Looks like the blog is in a moody state right now.

Imagine that...Here?!?

Shocking. :)


We still have a little bit of time, the short bus usually leaves last down here.
holynova...what is cookie monster saying on your avatar?
Quoting seminolesfan:
Ooops...what have I stumbled into this time?

Looks like the blog is in a moody state right now.

Imagine that...Here?!?

Shocking. :)

This blog is *never* moody. Paranoid bipolar schitzophrenic? Yes. But not moody.

(my apologies in advance if anyone is offended by that. It is just shocking to see how some people react to storms on here, and quite a few of the actions I see on here collectively fit the symptoms of someone who is a bipolar paranoid schitzophrenic.)
Quoting kabloie:
Surfing in Virginia this weekend will be better than usual!


Big and choppy until Danny passes, then nice clean north swell w/ a little S SE background left over. Should create nice A frames Sunday late. On It!
778. IKE
African wave at 1800UTC....

Quoting Dakster:


We still have a little bit of time, the short bus usually leaves last down here.

and the short bus down here really is the short bus lol
It looks like the retrograding cyclone (cold core) over MS heading into LA is hanging up the trough.

Link
We need a storm named Barney.
Quoting mikatnight:


This whole banning without any recourse bugs me. I thought only the administrator could ban someone. Is someone banned automatically if they get a certain # of flags?

Banning without recourse is fairly standard for a moderated blog or forum.

As for banning with flags, I don't think so, as it would be ripe for abuse. I think that question is best directed to the admin on here.
Quoting bingcrosby:
We need a storm named Barney.

no it would scare people
i really think we need to focus our posts on the topic please, not trying to be a pain, but this is kinda out of hand today =P
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
For those who missed this earlier:


PRESS RELEASE: July 1, 2009

ECSC: A RIDE OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS


The forty-seventh (47) installment of the granddaddy of East Coast surfing contests will be held August 27-30, 2009 at the Virginia Beach, Va., oceanfront.


-----------------------------------------------------------
http://www.surfecsc.com/
North America's Oldest Running Surfing Competition

Held annually in Virginia Beach, Virginia since 1963, ECSC is more than just surfing. Dozens of people also take part in other competitions including skimboarding, volleyball, an oceanfront 5K run, a swimsuit competition and the extreme sport of skateboarding. Live bands perform for free on an oceanfront stage throughout the weekend.


Greatest contest ever! Bands, Beer , Babes, and oh the bikini contest! Come on down bloggers I'm buying.
Quoting seminolesfan:
It looks like the retrograding cyclone (cold core) over MS heading into LA is hanging up the trough.

Link


Thanks for the link. Looks interesting.
Quoting tornadodude:
i really think we need to focus our posts on the topic please, not trying to be a pain, but this is kinda out of hand today =P


I agree
African wave, another fish storm. I think that this season will be characterized bay fish storms. But thanks GOD for that, at least for our people in Puerto Rico. We now have an economic hurricane affecting us since 2005, so we don't want a visit of natural one...
Until models have a LLC to focus on and plot. Their outcomes remind me of a Grace Slick song.
(Somebody to Love)
"When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead".
Could also be used to describe other things.
Look it up youngsters:)
Well, guess my Portsmouth Island trip will be postponed from Saturday til Sunday.....Park officials will probably shut it down....always wants to rain on my parade.....or rather blow on my parade.....
Anyone got a "guesstimate" of whether there will be any storm surge on the Pamlico or Neuse rivers???
Quoting jeffs713:

Banning without recourse is fairly standard for a moderated blog or forum.

As for banning with flags, I don't think so, as it would be ripe for abuse. I think that question is best directed to the admin on here.


Guess you're right. I'm new to this stuff.
sevasurfer. what exactly are you buying. if its a night of beer i will be there
Danny 18Z

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM
801. IKE
Quoting ncstorm:


I agree


thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?
wave off africe may take a day or two to develop imo
Is the ULL southwest of Danny steering it right now?
Quoting justalurker:


do you still see danny, strengthen to cat 1 as stormw suggested, due to the current conditions.


Yeah...StormW, the NHC, and most of the models show only slow strengthening over the next 24-36 hours as upper level conditions (specifically a trough axis) are not overly favorable for Danny.

On Friday, there is a brief window where some ridging is forecast to build in overtop Danny which should allow the convection to surround the circulation and let the storm become vertically stacked over very warm water. It is during this 24 hour that will really determing how strong Danny becomes.

If it is able to take advantage of this window, then it could easily become a category 1 or 2 hurricane. If not, then it will likely stay as a strong tropical storm on it way north.

Note: Intensity forecast are notoriously inaccurate in general. If you live along the East Coast, watch the weather closely over the next 24 hours and be prepared to take the appropriate actions if necessary.
How do you know that a storm forming off the coast of Africa will be a FISH storm?

Can I borrow your crystal ball? I need to buy some lotto tickets tonight and could really use the $$$.
799. BeanTech 11:46 AM PDT on August 26, 2009
*wonders how many page hits amy's blog is getting and how many disappointing sighs there are after discovering nothing but a dead Kermit*



hahahahahaha!!!!

;)

later guys...I can't stay on topic...

808. IKE
Quoting Chavalito:
African wave, another fish storm. I think that this season will be characterized bay fish storms. But thanks GOD for that, at least for our people in Puerto Rico. We now have an economic hurricane affecting us since 2005, so we don't want a visit of natural one...


It is not a fish system. Pegged to track west.
Quoting IKE:


IKE-i have a bad feeling about this one..
810. IKE
Quoting justalurker:


IKE-i have a bad feeling about this one..


May make it to the Caribbean.
"thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?"

Tropical Floater on the WU Tropical Page
Quoting iluvjess:
"thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?"

Tropical Floater on the WU Tropical Page


thank ya
"wave off africe may take a day or two to develop imo"

There's an epiphany...
Track's up (pink line) on the SFWMD sat



The address if needed: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html
GIV starting to make its drops on the GOM...
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah...StormW, the NHC, and most of the models show only slow strengthening over the next 24-36 hours as upper level conditions (specifically a trough axis) are not overly favorable for Danny.

On Friday, there is a brief window where some ridging is forecast to build in overtop Danny which should allow the convection to surround the circulation and let the storm become vertically stacked over very warm water. It is during this 24 hour that will really determing how strong Danny becomes.

If it is able to take advantage of this window, then it could easily become a category 1 or 2 hurricane. If not, then it will likely stay as a strong tropical storm on it way north.

Note: Intensity forecast are notoriously inaccurate in general. If you live along the East Coast, watch the weather closely over the next 24 hours and be prepared to take the appropriate actions if necessary.


thanks, the only reason that I'm asking is that i have a summer house in north carolina, and dont know if i should drive up from florida to board up..cat 1 maybe but 2 definitely. thanks for the information..check back with you later on another opinion.
well thank God this is no way shape or form the next "big one"
819. 786
807. Finally!

So the steering currents could bring this West? Is the high forecast to stengthen then?
Danny 18Z SHIPS indicates significant shear after 48 hours.
How good are the data for that fifty-year average, though?

NHC recently issued a paper pointing out that the increase in the number of short-lived storms and storms that don't make landfall is a statistical artifact: better data gathering (especially but not only satellites) means we see more of the storms that form.
Latest Recon Data finding surface winds supportive of the current 45 mph intensity, with possible support for raising it to 50mph.

Sample ob:

Flight Level: 49 knots(~ 56.3 mph)
SMFR Surface:42 knots(~ 48.3 mph)

There were several obs all showing 48mph surface winds from the SMFR, and the flight level adjusted to the surface winds also fall in the 45-48mph range.
I like the HWRF track for Danny, although the way the GFDL and HWRF continue deepening the storm north of Cape Hatteras until it reaches the latitude of New England seems unrealistic.

If the pressure goes below 970 mb, I'll be moderately surprised.

No real thoughts on our Cape Verde wave. This year since it's been so troughy all summer, I think it likely that whatever forms will be picked up and out, with only the northern Leewards and Bermuda at risk.
well, ill be back on later, i need to assemble my futon ha ;) take it easy, and try to stay on t(r)opic!
Quoting seminolesfan:
It looks like the retrograding cyclone (cold core) over MS heading into LA is hanging up the trough.

Link


I saw that earlier and wondered why nobody mentioned it. Kind of an odd entity really!
819.


Yes, the A/B high is forecast to sprawl westward, holding back any significant northward movement in the near to mid term.

As for the other half of your comment... I enjoy the levity that silly comments bring here. Helps break up the "doom and gloom" that hurricanes bring to many of us.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Danny 18Z SHIPS indicates significant shear after 48 hours.


Not enough time to strengthen... but once it becomes extratropical then that's another story...
I see we have Danny at 2 p.m.
"1159 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM DANNY WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GENERATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY."

A 54 year old man died in the surf here last week during Bill's passage. Hopefully, swimmers will heed the warnings this week, although I don't think there are Lifeguards down in Bethune Beach where he was body surfing.
Quoting WxLogic:
GIV starting to make its drops on the GOM...


What?
Quoting noraed:
How good are the data for that fifty-year average, though?

NHC recently issued a paper pointing out that the increase in the number of short-lived storms and storms that don't make landfall is a statistical artifact: better data gathering (especially but not only satellites) means we see more of the storms that form.


Chris Landsea made that point in comparing the 1933 and 2005 seasons (1933 was the previous record holder for the most storms in a season)
This map expresses it quite well, I think:

Even the very bullish CMC is showing a very asymmetrical cyclone.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


What?


It's to gather data on the front for model input.
Any possibility Danny could become a strong cat 1 before getting close/brushing the Outer Banks NC. Not much time to prepare if so.
Quoting IKE:


It is not a fish system. Pegged to track west.


Can you show your work on that please
tia
test

Is this thing on?
Post apparently sent to Japanese small engine repair blog (where Floodman says they go)

Really neato image:


Morning glory clouds

"What causes these long, strange clouds? No one is sure. A rare type of cloud known as a Morning Glory cloud can stretch 1,000 kilometers long and occur at altitudes up to two kilometers high. Although similar roll clouds have been seen at specific places across the world, the ones over Burketown, Queensland Australia occur predictably every spring. Long, horizontal, circulating tubes of air might form when flowing, moist, cooling air encounters an inversion layer, an atmospheric layer where air temperature atypically increases with height. These tubes and surrounding air could cause dangerous turbulence for airplanes when clear. Morning Glory clouds can reportedly achieve an airspeed of 60 kilometers per hour over a surface with little discernible wind."
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap090824.html
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I like the HWRF track for Danny, although the way the GFDL and HWRF continue deepening the storm north of Cape Hatteras until it reaches the latitude of New England seems unrealistic.

If the pressure goes below 970 mb, I'll be moderately surprised.

No real thoughts on our Cape Verde wave. This year since it's been so troughy all summer, I think it likely that whatever forms will be picked up and out, with only the northern Leewards and Bermuda at risk.

I think the GFDL and HWRF are bombing Danny out off the mid-Atlantic coast because of the storm's projected path over the Gulf Stream, and also the topography of the land which will cause the storm to be compressed on the western side. The GFDL and HWRF have always overestimated that, (they did the same thing for Dolly, IIRC), but it is a factor that needs to be accounted for.
838. IKE
Quoting tramp96:


Can you show your work on that please
tia


I'm basing it on computer models.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


What?


Hehe... as Seastep mentioned... the Gulfstream IV-SP is sampling the atmosphere in the GOM and W ATL region for input on computer models later today...most likely by 00Z.
Quoting atmoaggie:
test

Is this thing on?


You're on the air lol.
Quoting Seastep:


It's to gather data on the front for model input.


O.K., still a little unbelievable, but that's just the way I am.
12 ECMWF... back on board with possible 94L or TS Erika.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Chris Landsea made that point in comparing the 1933 and 2005 seasons (1933 was the previous record holder for the most storms in a season)
This map expresses it quite well, I think:



St. Simons,
Very interesting graphic. Thanks.
Does anyone have a link for download to allow google earth to follow the Hurricane Hunters live for MAC?
Interesting radar. Quite unusual to see convection building up over the open water in the middle of the afternoon---that usually happens at night.

There seems to be a boundary from 100 miles east of Savannah running SSW to to Daytona Beach, shifting slowly west. It has the appearance of a tropical wave, although it may be a kind of boundary of the air mass surrounding Danny.



Convection inland is typical of moist airmasses with a light easterly flow.
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?




trying to start thunderstorms on the western side.
I see the tropics are becoming active again. I have my eye on that African wave. Danny isn't so concerning to me.
where is the COC located now?
Quoting atmoaggie:
test

Is this thing on?
Post apparently sent to Japanese small engine repair blog (where Floodman says they go)

Really neato image:


Morning glory clouds

"What causes these long, strange clouds? No one is sure. A rare type of cloud known as a Morning Glory cloud can stretch 1,000 kilometers long and occur at altitudes up to two kilometers high. Although similar roll clouds have been seen at specific places across the world, the ones over Burketown, Queensland Australia occur predictably every spring. Long, horizontal, circulating tubes of air might form when flowing, moist, cooling air encounters an inversion layer, an atmospheric layer where air temperature atypically increases with height. These tubes and surrounding air could cause dangerous turbulence for airplanes when clear. Morning Glory clouds can reportedly achieve an airspeed of 60 kilometers per hour over a surface with little discernible wind."
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap090824.html


Great pic. Looks fake because its so unusual.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I see the tropics are becoming active again. I have my eye on that African wave. Danny isn't so concerning to me.


though it might be for others.LOL
COC seems to be seperating from the convection. They seem to be moving in different directions.
Ole Danny boy is racing right along,any idea when he suppose to slow down?
Quoting justalurker:


though it might be for others.LOL


Yeah, it's a real concern for Carolina and the NE. Not so much for me in Florida.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 18:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2009
Storm Name: Danny (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 17:54:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°00'N 70°50'W (25.N 70.8333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 408 miles (656 km) to the E (91°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 16kts (~ 18.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 15kts (From the ENE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 465m (1,526ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 454m (1,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:38:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:38:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Will NE Florida catch any rain from Danny? We could use a little.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Interesting radar. Quite unusual to see convection building up over the open water in the middle of the afternoon---that usually happens at night.

There seems to be a boundary from 100 miles east of Savannah running SSW to to Daytona Beach, shifting slowly west. It has the appearance of a tropical wave, although it may be a kind of boundary of the air mass surrounding Danny.



Actually that's not uncommon, if there unstable air, this can happen.
I'm still having a hard time trusting the models on this one...Danny isn't overly vertical, especially on his west and south sides. Isn't it logical to assume his westward (or nearly westward) movement for atleast 24-36 hours until more convection builds and is steered more northerly?
Quoting Autistic2:
Will NE Florida catch any rain from Danny? We could use a little.
Youll get more rain from the stalled front, rather than danny.
Quoting iluvjess:
COC seems to be seperating from the convection. They seem to be moving in different directions.


I believe the is the upper level low seperating from Danny
There appears to be westerly shear over the thunderstorms in FL and GA. I can say it is quite cloudy here with blowoff from the storms. Makes me think the shear over Danny may last longer and be stronger than some models predict.

The satellite animation VAbeachhurricanes put up shows a system sheared like a sheep, heading decidedly westward. Interesting.

DannyboyLink
Oh my, the trough up north flattened.
Good luck East Coast.

Sat Image
Actually it is uncommon off NE Florida and SE Georgia, StormChaser81. We do get nocturnal buildups of storms offshore, but in mid afternoon it is quite unusual.
Quoting Chicklit:

looking better and better
Quoting Autistic2:
Will NE Florida catch any rain from Danny? We could use a little.


Not directly from Danny... but the pressure gradient should bring some showers onshore.
Hey Canewarning, about to head to our pool--how are you?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Danny 18Z SHIPS indicates significant shear after 48 hours.


Uglyiest tc ive seen in a while...Both GFDL/HWRF bring a pretty significant cane up there.
Quoting Chicklit:


That is quite the blob coming off Africa...I couldn't help but being a bit amused at Dr. Masters comments, "I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row." Sensing a tad of exasperation there...



western side popping storms, trying to get more organized... alright well im off to buy supplies. peace
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Oh my, the trough up north flattened.
Good luck East Coast.

Sat Image


I think this goes hand in hand with what Seminolefan was talking about in post 782.
much closer to florida then it was yesterday
osuwxguy

Excellent post.

i,m not buying any extra supplies until i hear of a warning...NOT a watch
Talk about weird/unrealistic...HWRF has Danny down to a pressure of 945 mb 72 hours down the road....riiiiiight.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey Canewarning, about to head to our pool--how are you?


Sitting here at work and looking at the tropics! How's the weather there? They say we'll see heavy rain here but right now its sunny.
The shear over Danny is weak. His ability to grow is dependent upon warm water and upper atmospheric support. Are those available?
StormSurgeon

What do you mean by a trough flattening? What does this mean now? Not recurving northward as some anticipated? Thank you.
I'm anxious to see a few more model runs and check the consistency of the current cone and ensembles
Quoting Chicklit:

YIKES
That is one ugly lookin storm. Hard to believe it won't disipate in 24 hours, let alone strengthen.
Quoting K8eCane:
i,m not buying any extra supplies until i hear of a warning...NOT a watch


Shouldn't you have all your supplies prior to the start of Hurricane Season ??
Quoting obsessedwweather:
StormSurgeon

What do you mean by a trough flattening? What does this mean now? Not recurving northward as some anticipated? Thank you.


Probably yes. When the trough flattened, it now extends west to east instead of SW to NE. That spells more trouble than thought for NC and VA coastline.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
The shear over Danny is weak. His ability to grow is dependent upon warm water and upper atmospheric support. Are those available?

Warm water - yes.
Upper Atmospheric support - kinda. Its lower shear, but a bunch of dry air to mix out pumped into Danny by the ULL.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually it is uncommon off NE Florida and SE Georgia, StormChaser81. We do get nocturnal buildups of storms offshore, but in mid afternoon it is quite unusual.


Well I've seen it before, so blah.
Once the ULL gets out of the picture we should see a better looking system. I agree it looks rather ugly right now.
Danny is totally distended from the T-Storm activity. Shear?
"i,m not buying any extra supplies until i hear of a warning...NOT a watch"

Guess you enjoy long lines... lol
Not only does the CPC show increased cyclogenesis chances in the EATL this week, but also next week:

Models should move left.
Quoting hurricane23:


Uglyiest tc ive seen in a while...Both GFDL/HWRF bring a pretty significant cane up there.


SHIPS forward speed at the end is near 30 kt, thats a 1/3 of the wind speed there.
It may look ugly now, but it is still in the formative stages.
nothing like waiting til the last minute for supplies. isnt that when everythng is sold out?
Quoting tanman63:
I'm still having a hard time trusting the models on this one...Danny isn't overly vertical, especially on his west and south sides. Isn't it logical to assume his westward (or nearly westward) movement for atleast 24-36 hours until more convection builds and is steered more northerly?
good point
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I believe the is the upper level low seperating from Danny
Quoting jeffs713:

Warm water - yes.
Upper Atmospheric support - kinda. Its lower shear, but a bunch of dry air to mix out pumped into Danny by the ULL.


So is the ULL and Danny moving away from each other?
It's sultry here Canewarning, mid 70s dewpoint, and 80 under cloudy blowoff from thunderstorms to our west. We had a brief, heavy shower right before dawn this morning that blew in off the water.
you guys are scaring me..i think its time for me to drive up to NC..
Danny



Wave off Africa

Quoting extreme236:
Once the ULL gets out of the picture we should see a better looking system. I agree it looks rather ugly right now.


Yep. I'll have a complete graphics and blog update later on Danny, Hilda, and Ignacio. Be back in a few minutes.
Quoting justalurker:
you guys are scaring me..i think its time for me to drive up to NC..


Where do you live.
The wave off Africa is looking good.
new blog!
I am predicting an orange circle for the AOI (soon to be 93L) off the coast of Africa at 8 pm. Looking good. Be back in a few.
Quoting AllStar17:
I am predicting an orange circle for the AOI (soon to be 93L) off the coast of Africa at 8 pm. Looking good. Be back in a few.


Correctin... 94L. We already had 93L... :)
Quoting K8eCane:
i,m not buying any extra supplies until i hear of a warning...NOT a watch


having been through several hurricanes, may I offer advice...Get your supplies now, if you wait until the panic starts there will be nothing left. It is no fun when there is no gas, water, canned foods, plywood if you need it, generators, etc. Just a suggestion.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Where do you live.


sfla.
Danny is in trouble! Low level circulation is distended f4om the absolute LOW. No Low, No breeze.
Quoting cajunmoma:


having been through several hurricanes, may I offer advice...Get your supplies now, if you wait until the panic starts there will be nothing left. It is no fun when there is no gas, water, canned foods, plywood if you need it, generators, etc. Just a suggestion.


i know what ya mean...been thru a few myself
i'm not exactly doing great in the recession so i dont have money to spare for extra plywood or expensive items and my point is i dont think i will need all that for this storm
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Danny is in trouble! Low level circulation is distended f4om the absolute LOW. No Low, No breeze.


Give Danny time. Its not going to look good for a little while.
Quoting K8eCane:


i know what ya mean...been thru a few myself
i'm not exactly doing great in the recession so i dont have money to spare for extra plywood or expensive items and my point is i dont think i will need all that for this storm


but on second thought anybody reading this that isnt familiar with the drill, its not a bad idea to go ahead
better safe than sorry
trough does look like it's flattening, but there's a high pressure system to the West of Danny right now. Is it going to scoot over his north and then steer him up East coast? Depending on speed, I think the High pressure could loop him away. What am I not seeing?