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Tropical Storm Cristobal Slowly Intensifying – Very Little Threat to US

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Edited for latest Fix data, VIS image and Naval FCST Chart - shown in BOLD

Slowly intensifying Tropical STORM Cristobal with MAX sustained surface winds near 45Kts was near 23.2°N / 72.8°W at 18:00Z,or about 320NM E of Nassau, Bahamas now appears to be heading just west of due North (350°) at around 5Kts as it has become caught up in the generally southerly flow just east of the weak, N-S orientated upper level TROF. This TROF off the east coast is located between the sub-tropical High over the central Atlantic to the east, and another sub-tropical high over the Gulf coast states. This synoptic scale environment that we’ve been discussing for the past 2 days, has apparently ‘shown it’s hand’ already – and has GREATLY lowered the chances that CRISTOBAL will have any significant impact on the US mainland.

Additional RECON data also shows a better defined core with a 'thermal eye wall' Temp differential of 4°C - although no eye wall has been reported or seen on imagery. In addition, most significant convection remains to SE and south of the center.


Although wind shear has lowered considerably during the past 18 hours in the immediate vicinity of the vortex center to under 5Kts(!) – normally quite conducive to intensification – the outflow pattern for the storm that was quite symmetrical during the past 2 days has now degraded somewhat, with ‘good’ outflow to the east and far to the south, but poor to fair outflow in the west/northwest quadrant. In addition, there still does not appear to be a well defined jet outflow channel, though this may yet 'connect up' with a fairly strong northerly jet far to the east of the storm. And while dry air is not an immediate problem for the storm, water vapor imagery loops clearly show drier air starting to impinge on the overall circulation field just to the west (near Florida) and further east (northeastern CARIB) of the storm related to a closed upper LOW approaching the NE CARIB. In addition, a weak east-west frontal band along 32N is still sinking very slowly southward, adding yet another potential complication for the intensity forecast, and to a lessor degree, the track forecast. Bottom line, unless / until CRISTOBAL develops a stronger and far better organized core, the areas of drier air will may soon impinge on the storm's inner circulation which will impede development of the storm, or halt it altogether during the next 12-48 hours.

On the ‘plus’ side (depending on your point of view) SST’s are very warm (near 29°C / 86°F) and should remain above 28°C over CRISTOBAL’S projected track for the next 2-3 days - which is quite supportive of intensification, though the very slow movement of the storm may induce some upwelling of cooler sub-surface water, which in turn, would slow the positive impact on convectively driven intensification.

The latest global and specialized hurricane forecast models, while still showing significant spread in forecast track solutions, have all shifted much further to the east (even further eastward then most of the models originally depicted just a couple days ago), with all solutions showing the storm tracking far to the east of the US mainland. The only significant model divergences of note at this time is a clustering of several model solutions that show the storm taking a more North-Northwest track Monday thru Wednesday before finally turning northeastward and then out to sea about 300NM or more east of Cape Hatteras later in the week. This is a reasonable solution and is due to the initial weakening of the TROF now off the east coast, which allows the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic to build westward, forcing a more northwesterly track early in the week ahead. But by late Wednesday and Thursday, a mid-latitude TROF now in the PAC NW will be advancing to the Northeastern US, turning the steering flow to the southwest, which will force CRISTOBAL to turn northeastward and head out to sea.

Unlike the track forecasts, the intensity forecasts have remained very consistent over the last several days, with most calling for a very slow intensification to CAT 1 intensity in a couple days. While there is no clear reason to disagree, the above mentioned ‘negatives’ may tilt the odds to keeping CRISTOBAL just below hurricane strength.



Fig 1: Early morning VIS imagery shows a significantly more consolidated and classical looking storm system, with most of the stronger convection (and higher winds) to the east of the storm center.



Fig 2: Water Vapor imagery shows dry air approaching from the west, and to a lessor degree, from the east, associated with an upper Low near the Leeward Islands. Unless CRISTOBAL intensifies soon, the drier air may become entrained in the inner circulation - hindering intensification.



Fig 3: The area of very low winds shear that has consistently been to the S-SW of the developing system for the last 2 days has now orientated itself over the center of the storm with very low values near or even below 5Kts. This is one of the most 'positive' metrics, along with the very warm SST's, for the intensification of the storm.



Fig 4: Outflow associated with a very high level anti-cyclone is quite good in the eastern semi-circle, and may soon be able to 'latch on' to the northerly jet further to the east of the storm. However, outflow is relatively poor to the west and NW. Outflow is a critical factor that determines storm intensity.



Fig 5: The steering level winds clearly show the break in the east-west orientated ridge line that extended from the High pressure center in the central Atlantic to the second center over the SE U.S. The southerly winds ahead of the weak TROF that 'broke through' the ridge are steering the storm poleward. This TROF is expected to weaken on Monday, allowing the ridge to build westward, steering CRISTOBAL on a more Northwestward course for a couple days, before the winds back around to the SW ahead of the next mid-latitude TROF.



Fig 6: Early cycle model runs are in good agreement that CRISTOBAL will NOT significantly impact the US mainland - and confidence in this outlook is now much higher than yesterday.



Fig 7: Intensity forecasts have remained very consistent over the past few days, with slow intensification expected during the next 72 hrs to CAT 1 Hurricane force in about 48-72 hours - though the approaching drier air may prevent or delay this.



Fig 8: Latest NAVY Track/Intensity Forecast for Cristobal


ELSEWHERE in the Tropical Atlantic - a fairly strong disturbance (97L) now S/SW of the Cape Verdes with isolated convection is westbound - but is unlikely to show significant development for at least the next 4 days as the system is embedded within the dry and warm Saharan Air Layer (SAL), By Friday, the system will have a notable chance for development. An even stronger wave now over Africa should emerge off the coast next weekend.

Dr. Masters will return tomorrow with the next full update; but if there is a significant change, I’ll issue another brief update late today.

Note: For those interested , I will once again be providing my own Weather Bog Updates starting tomorrow located HERE



Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So where are the models taking 97L same vicinity as cristobal?
1502. Patrap
Hard to realize it will be 9 years come Friday since K changed our Lives here.

The City has come back strong, with new Growth, some new faces, and well..a new attitude.

There are those daily reminders, like some bldgs still have the dreaded orange X on them with dates that come back to haunt some of us.

It will always be there...,

I don't do Helos well since then.


ENjoy your day all.


PT at 8am @ the VA,....... no pain, no gain.



Pocket full of hearts
A world that's filled with love
A love that carries all before
The passion and the flood
Quoting 1501. BahamaHurricane:

So where are the models taking 97L same vicinity as cristobal?


GFS takes it into the Caribbean toward the Greater Antilles... on a path that Cristobal was supposed to take... back when there was a strong Gulf consensus. Euro moves it north of the Lesser Antilles and eventually toward south Florida.

The pattern favors a west and eventually west-northwestward motion as it nears the islands. That's literally the most intellectually honest thing anyone can say right now.
1504. FOREX
is it still the second trough that is to lift cristobal out?
our neighbors spread fertilizers and pesticides over there yards so their yds are green. after a rain some of that runs off into the mosquito lagoon. someone is listening. brevard county florida has recently made it illegal to use fertilizers during rainy season but still permits pesticides. sure dont want our lagoon to turn into the dead zone like just south of louisiana. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-usa-g ulfmexico-idUSKBN0G522A20140805
Quoting 1503. KoritheMan:



GFS takes it into the Caribbean toward the Greater Antilles... on a path that Cristobal was supposed to take... back when there was a strong Gulf consensus. Euro moves it north of the Lesser Antilles and eventually toward south Florida.

The pattern favors a west and eventually west-northwestward motion as it nears the islands. That's literally the most intellectually honest thing anyone can say right now.
97L is a joke.
Current gusts of 37 mph from the NNW
Heavy rain and Barometer still NOT rising
Providenciales TCI


This is a terrible looking storm.
Quoting islander101010:
our neighbors spread fertilizers and pesticides over there yards so their yds are green. unfornately after a rain some of that runs off into the mosquito lagoon. someone is listening. the brevard county florida has made it illegal to use fertilizers during rainy season. but still lets permits pesticides. sure dont want our lagoon to turn into the dead zone like just south of louisiana. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-usa-g ulfmexico-idUSKBN0G522A20140805
Runoff is a big problem. Some of it can be controlled by creating and maintaining retention ponds or swales to hold rainwater so it percolates instead becoming runoff.

Unfortunately in some areas local ordnances and/or home owners associations require "green" manicured lawns. Have read several cases in the news even of late of homeowners cited and sometimes fined because of brown or patchy lawns.
Quoting 1506. prcane4you:

97L is a joke.


I don't anticipate significant development from it until it gets west of 60W. Even then we'll have to see.
Quoting 1508. JrWeathermanFL:



This is a terrible looking storm.
Adios Cristobal.Thank you for the heavy rain in P.R. as a TW.
1512. Grothar
It looks like it may be beginning to get ready for its trip to the North and northeast

1513. MahFL
Well I see a west drift for Cristobal, any one concur ?
1514. MahFL
Quoting 1508. JrWeathermanFL:
This is a terrible looking storm.


It's not that bad, just sheared. In the early morning sunlight he looks quite nice.
area just east of the leewards has some thunderstorms. sign the mdr region is becoming more favorable
Cristobal has reconfirmed my belief that Track Models are useless and even worse misleading until they have a solid COC to work with.
1517. Grothar
Quoting 1483. hurricanes2018:
maybe a low in the GOM


This blew up right off the shores of Pensacola last night. We were visiting friends at a beach house on Perdido Key and watched the exceptional lightning show over the water for hours. This morning, it feels very tropical-- very humid with strong easterly winds. The system is still very much intact, headed toward New Orleans.
Link
1519. guygee
First-light loop of Cristobal showing partially exposed center on the northern fringe of the deep convection. NHC is expecting reorganization and intensification as the trough pulls out later today.
 photo 2014-08-25-1107Z_Vis.gif
i my opinion 97 will follow cristobal to the north atlantic
Quoting 1421. Kowaliga:

Sound the alarm in JAX!.......(LOL!)...

One thing I've learned, if it says that will happen this soon, 1% chance of it actually happening.
The fat lady has sung.

A lull in the rain, so I checked/emptied the rain gage, 2.3 inches since 12:30 AM
so my storm total is now 14.4 inches, yep... FOURTEEN and Four tenths inches!
and I know I missed some at the beginning...
Providenciales
Turks and Caicos Islands
1525. guygee
Cristobal peripheral local effects on ECFL coast:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL STATIONARY BUT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS ENCOUNTERING HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS LED TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
THIS TRUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE FL COAST NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH NIGHTFALL. GUSTY CONDITIONS WL UNFOLD SWD
ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE CST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE COAST AND INLAND.

SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY...LEADING TO BRIEF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINS IN
AFFECTED AREAS. SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE RAIN AREAS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER PCPN WL
OCCUR MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. THE STRONG MARINE COMPONENT
WL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT...ESP AT THE COAST WHERE GUSTY CONDS AND CHOPPY
BREAKING WAVES WL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
TC CRISTOBAL SHOULD RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD TREK LATER TODAY.
[...]
You can always count on Stewart to up the odds.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
If 97L develops quickly, it is also probably a fish as well.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't anticipate significant development from it until it gets west of 60W. Even then we'll have to see.



On the Naval Site the GFS, UKMET, and NAVGEM all have the system going north of the Leeward Islands. But its way too early to know if the system will develop or what path it will take. All the models were wrong about 96L taking it into through the Caribbean and look where it ended up.
But here's the GFS track for P21/97L based on OOz.
1530. sar2401
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:


This blew up right off the shores of Pensacola last night. We were visiting friends at a beach house on Perdido Key and watched the exceptional lightning show over the water for hours. This morning, it feels very tropical-- very humid with strong easterly winds. The system is still very much intact, headed toward New Orleans.
Link
Tail end of the cold (well, not as hot) front that went through here yesterday afternoon and is now just into the Gulf. Forecast is for a low to form and move generally west in the Gulf and end up in Texas by Thursday or Friday. It has no model support for development but, as usual with these tail end lows, it bears watching.
1531. sar2401
Quoting EdMahmoud:
If 97L develops quickly, it is also probably a fish as well.

Has the blog finally stopped with the "it's going south" thing for Cristobal this morning?
97L-Dolly? will be our annual Labor Day feature garnished with suspense, and speculation.
1533. sar2401
Quoting Autistic2:
Cristobal has reconfirmed my belief that Track Models are useless and even worse misleading until they have a solid COC to work with.
True, but we're already seeing 97L being prognosticated. Short memories.
1534. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:
Well I see a west drift for Cristobal, any one concur ?
You're kidding, right?
Quoting 1531. sar2401:

Has the blog finally stopped with the "it's going south" thing for Cristobal this morning?
No...the storm stopped "It's going south thing"
The blog was correct and the NHC had the coordinates off by almost 60 miles on their 11 PM advisory last night when recon confirmed center to the south.
Quoting 1531. sar2401:

Has the blog finally stopped with the "it's going south" thing for Cristobal this morning?


Christobal is actually stationary, he's not moving northeastward out to sea right now, he is waiting for the trough to slide to the northeast and will remain on a northwest or northward track for the time being until the next trough pushes him out to sea. this next trough will likely push 97L out to sea as well. I put COC at or around 24.9N: 73.0W
1537. sar2401
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


This is a terrible looking storm.
Oh, the poor thing's not terrible, just kinda weird. :-) It will look much better by this time tomorrow.
Quoting 1534. sar2401:

You're kidding, right?


It's stationary, there is no west, east, northeast drifts going on or even southward drifts, if anything he's stationary with a northward drift.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
If 97L develops quickly, it is also probably a fish as well.



Yeah, anything that develops early doesn't stand a chance of making it across the Atlantic without being picked up by a trough. just repeated that in post 1529.

The only way a wave is getting into the Caribbean is if it stays very weak and sets up at a real low latitude (something like a Hurricane Charley - formed way down in the extreme S.E. Caribbean). By the time it got pulled north by the trough it was too late to miss the U.S.

Last month we had several interesting waves pass through the Caribbean, but the dry air/Saharan dust, and wind shear tore them apart.

1540. guygee
Quoting 1505. islander101010:

our neighbors spread fertilizers and pesticides over there yards so their yds are green. after a rain some of that runs off into the mosquito lagoon. someone is listening. brevard county florida has recently made it illegal to use fertilizers during rainy season but still permits pesticides. sure dont want our lagoon to turn into the dead zone like just south of louisiana. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-usa-g ulfmexico-idUSKBN0G522A20140805
I found a bunch of tree frog eggs in my outdoor rainwater-fishtanks so I put them in a separate container, now I have about 300 tadpoles. Those are going to be part of my natural insecticide strategy when they mature, I figure they will be great for eating a good part of the spiraling rugose whiteflies that have spread up starting from Belize to South Florida and now plaguing the Space Coast.
1541. sar2401
Quoting FOREX:
So the out to sea should begin any time now?
By later this afternoon. It will be moving like a rocket in 24 hours. It's gone.
1542. xcool

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi ·
nw gulf area to watch md week on. Southern end of wave that caused Cristobol,trough,favorable MJO phase will cause increased in disturbed wx

Quoting unknowncomic:
97L-Dolly? will be our annual Labor Day feature garnished with suspense, and speculation.


I would love to be wrong, but everything points to my picture below.



1545. MahFL
I see a WNW drift now.
Quoting 1531. sar2401:

Has the blog finally stopped with the "it's going south" thing for Cristobal this morning?
Going fishing until the season is over.
Quoting 1544. Sfloridacat5:



I would love to be wrong, but everything points to my picture below.






Well see. This the CMC but gives a good idea of what the track maybe.

1548. MahFL
Quoting 1534. sar2401:

You're kidding, right?


No, the coc is drifting WNW, on the visible sat.
Quoting 1545. MahFL:

I see a WNW drift now.
Nobody here see that.
1551. FOREX
Quoting 1513. MahFL:

Well I see a west drift for Cristobal, any one concur ?

here we go again.lol
Another Heavy rain squall hitting now...
gust of 41 mph
EDIT: NOT NNW... judging by where I am having to mop up water... My anemometer base must have moved and desktop direction reading is not accurate...
Providenciales TCI

(The "Sting" is often in the tail...)
Quoting 1547. StormTrackerScott:



Well see. This the CMC but gives a good idea of what the track maybe.


Que chistoso.
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

invest 97L UP TO 30% IN FIVE DAYS and got a high chance of hitting the east coast to
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Well see. This the CMC but gives a good idea of what the track maybe.



No trust in that model this far out. To be honest I don't trust any of the models until we have a well formed system (if that ever happens).
Christobal taught us not to fall for these models.
We had several days of DOOM model runs from several models when 96L was strong wave near Puerto Rico.
97L is weak and another thousand miles further away.


1556. sar2401
Quoting Abacosurf:
No...the storm stopped "It's going south thing"
The blog was correct and the NHC had the coordinates off by almost 60 miles on their 11 PM advisory last night when recon confirmed center to the south.
OK, let me reword that. "South and west thing". I just looked at 11:00 and the 5:00 It was a .3 degrees difference. A degree is about 69 miles. That's about a 21 mile wobble south. Weak, sheared systems will have center wobbles. The models agreement was very good for the eventual move north and east. People jumped on the three BAM models (actually, two, since one had it going even further east) as being some kind of trend. Steve Gregory and the NHC thought nothing of this slight center change to the south. The reliable models thought nothing of it. I'm sorry, but the blog wasn't right, and some of what I saw was downright embarrassing.
Quoting 1527. EdMahmoud:

If 97L develops quickly, it is also probably a fish as well.




Agreed. There may be enough of a ridge at 850-700 mb to allow it to stay south of the trailing weakness left behind by Cristobal, but if it becomes vertically deep as it approaches the islands, it will likely not be able to slip underneath the ridge.
Quoting 1554. hurricanes2018:

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

invest 97L UP TO 30% IN FIVE DAYS and got a high chance of hitting the east coast to
East Coast? Where? NC.
Good Morning:

Goodbye Cristobal, Hello Dolly ?!

The tropics are finally heating up. We will see what happens during the next couple of weeks!
Quoting 1545. MahFL:

I see a WNW drift now.


Check the recon vortex messages. Not really.
1561. StormWx
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


No trust in that model this far out. To be honest I don't trust any of the models until we have a well formed system.
Christobal taught us not to fall for these models.
We had several days of DOOM model runs from several models when 96L was strong wave near Puerto Rico.
97L is weak and another thousand miles further away.



Exactly, we should definitely pay attention to the models that far out, no doubting that. But to say that a model run that shows a particular area getting hit that far out is definitely going to happen and to hype the situation is foolish and makes ya look silly. Remember, no one had a crystal ball with Cristobal. haha.
Quoting 1552. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Another Heavy rain squall hitting now...
gust of 41 mph from NNW
Providenciales TCI

(The "Sting" is often in the tail...)


He is absolutely wrecking you guys with all the rain. Are you in any imminent danger from flooding? Or are you in a relatively safe area? I wonder what all the damage will be once he clears out.

By the way, professor Cristo is now up to 60 mph/50 kts. I see rapid intensification to category 1 status coming within the next two days. Haha.
1563. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Another Heavy rain squall hitting now...
gust of 41 mph from NNW
Providenciales TCI

(The "Sting" is often in the tail...)
LOL. Yes, it is. Another five or six hours and you should finally start to dry out. It has been a heck of a rainstorm for you,
1564. SLU
Mighty Marie is about to make a direct hit on Clarion Island located at 18.4N 114.7W.

I feel sorry for all those wildlife species.



Quoting 1559. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning:

Goodbye Cristobal, Hello Dolly ?!

The tropics are finally heating up. We will see what happens during the next couple of weeks!
heating up? Where? You mean that little thing in the Atlantic?
Quoting 1557. KoritheMan:



Agreed. There may be enough of a ridge at 850-700 mb to allow it to stay south of the trailing weakness left behind by Cristobal, but if it becomes vertically deep as it approaches the islands, it will likely not be able to slip underneath the ridge.
point being, if its a developing hurricane its gone.. a weak ts and it manages to miss the weakness and head further west... GFS has dropped the 2nd CV system :( Euro has a strong wave moving toward the islands in 10 days. perhaps something to watch
Quoting 1565. hurricanes2018:

30%
no kidding
Quoting 1556. sar2401:

OK, let me reword that. "South and west thing". I just looked at 11:00 and the 5:00 It was a .3 degrees difference. A degree is about 69 miles. That's about a 21 mile wobble south. Weak, sheared systems will have center wobbles. The models agreement was very good for the eventual move north and east. People jumped on the three BAM models (actually, two, since one had it going even further east) as being some kind of trend. Steve Gregory and the NHC thought nothing of this slight center change to the south. The reliable models thought nothing of it. I'm sorry, but the blog wasn't right, and some of what I saw was downright embarrassing.


My forecast that I made this morning is certainly not going to verify. Since the models didn't predict the center reformation, I thought for sure their tracks would be off until a better center was initialized at 12z, but it seems Cristobal is following the path of the older model runs quite expediently.

I had shown a northwest motion for the first 48 hours in response to the reformation.
Quoting 1505. islander101010:

our neighbors spread fertilizers and pesticides over there yards so their yds are green. after a rain some of that runs off into the mosquito lagoon. someone is listening. brevard county florida has recently made it illegal to use fertilizers during rainy season but still permits pesticides. sure dont want our lagoon to turn into the dead zone like just south of louisiana. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-usa-g ulfmexico-idUSKBN0G522A20140805


As your Indian Riverkeeper, I have made this issue my battle for two years now. The Five County Coalition put together by Martin County Commissioner Ed Fielding has been a great help is disseminating FACTUAL information about the results of a meaningful fertilizer ordinance. Our state WAS sending its IFAS scientists out to lie and skew science in favor of the fertilizer industry, but we pulled their teeth so to speak with SCIENCE, and the Mark 1 eyeball. The agricultural community has spend BIG bucks to place THEIR lackeys in our State Government, and every Legislative Session someone, usually ALEC member jimmy patronis, submits some sort of bill to take away home rule. Florida was about to be hammered by the EPA back in 2013 for violations by the STATE of our Federally guaranteed Clean Water Protections.. so instead of tightening up and ENFORCING laws already on the books, they changed the definition of pollution to make it legal. Earthjustice, Sierra, and the St. Johns Riverkeeper are suing the State of Florida in Federal Court for violation of our Clean Water Act protections. Hell, most of our upper crust elected officials have been taken to King Ranch in Texas, for private hunts and political schmooze on Big Sugars dime.. resulting in the systematic dismantling of 40 years of GOOD environmental progress by Governor rick scott. Florida is currently rated the number ten MOST corrupt State in our Union. Where IS the RICO Act???
Quoting 1555. Sfloridacat5:



No trust in that model this far out. To be honest I don't trust any of the models until we have a well formed system (if that ever happens).
Christobal taught us not to fall for these models.
We had several days of DOOM model runs from several models when 96L was strong wave near Puerto Rico.
97L is weak and another thousand miles further away.





I agree.
Cheer up Wishcasters. This dry spell cannot last forever.
Quoting 1567. wunderweatherman123:

point being, if its a developing hurricane its gone.. a weak ts and it manages to miss the weakness and head further west... GFS has dropped the 2nd CV system :( Euro has a strong wave moving toward the islands in 10 days. perhaps something to watch


The CV system was always liable to recurve anyway as per climatology (it's moving off the coast at a high latitude). That's the antithesis of what you want.
I'm trying to EDIT #1552 with no luck so far...
Judging from where I am mopping up water blowing in... Wind is NOT NNW
Quoting 1572. unknowncomic:

Cheer up Wishcasters. This dry spell cannot last forever.


Of course it won't. It's funny to see people whine about it like we're stuck in it perpetually, though.
Quoting 1556. sar2401:

OK, let me reword that. "South and west thing". I just looked at 11:00 and the 5:00 It was a .3 degrees difference. A degree is about 69 miles. That's about a 21 mile wobble south. Weak, sheared systems will have center wobbles. The models agreement was very good for the eventual move north and east. People jumped on the three BAM models (actually, two, since one had it going even further east) as being some kind of trend. Steve Gregory and the NHC thought nothing of this slight center change to the south. The reliable models thought nothing of it. I'm sorry, but the blog wasn't right, and some of what I saw was downright embarrassing.
Look at the entry point from recon on flight nine. It had the center 50 miles to the south of the 11pm advisory. Simple as that! Is what it is. edit....flight 10
Quoting 1561. StormWx:



Exactly, we should definitely pay attention to the models that far out, no doubting that. But to say that a model run that shows a particular area getting hit that far out is definitely going to happen and to hype the situation is foolish and makes ya look silly. Remember, no one had a crystal ball with Cristobal. haha.
Im pretty sure models will brings this one to Fla,too.
Quoting 1573. KoritheMan:



The CV system was always liable to recurve anyway as per climatology (it's moving off the coast at a high latitude). That's the antithesis of what you want.
not buying the high latittude. euro doenst either.
1579. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:


No, the coc is drifting WNW, on the visible sat.
It's basically stationary. It will be so for another five or six hours until it starts to strengthen and follow the trough north. It will get picked up by a stronger trough tomorrow and slingshot NE. You're seeing center wobbles. They happen all the time with tropical storms. Up to you if you want to keep looking.
Quoting 1481. BahaHurican:

Morning all. I have very little to add to the discussion except...
It's been raining over Mayaguana for 24+ hours now.... don't want to imagine how much water there is on the ground there....


I wish it had been doing that over Exuma... so incredibly dry here.
1581. sar2401
Quoting Abacosurf:
Look at the entry point from recon on flight nine. It had the center 50 miles to the south of the 11pm advisory. Simple as that! Is what it is.
No, it's not. The two points in the discussion are not 50 miles different. Just because you see something on a dropsonde doesn't mean that the experts and the computer reconstruction of the flight will agree. Unless you think the NHC is deliberately falsifying positions, the official location is what it is, not what a bunch of amateurs think it is.
this tropical wave ready got rain and t.storms with it and a spin to
Quoting 1581. sar2401:

No, it's not. The two points in the discussion are not 50 miles different. Just because you see something on a dropsonde doesn't mean that the experts and the computer reconstruction of the flight will agree. Unless you think the NHC is deliberately falsifying positions, the official location is what it is, not what a bunch of amateurs think it is.
So you are not one of those amateurs? I doubt it.

Look at number one.
Quoting 1581. sar2401:

No, it's not. The two points in the discussion are not 50 miles different. Just because you see something on a dropsonde doesn't mean that the experts and the computer reconstruction of the flight will agree. Unless you think the NHC is deliberately falsifying positions, the official location is what it is, not what a bunch of amateurs think it is.


Not falsifying positions. They followed their protocol. It was from 11 pm to 2 AM not 5 AM.
Not here to argue with you or NHC. Just providing facts. :) I love your smart ass comments to all!! Wouldn't be WU without ya!
1586. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


My forecast that I made this morning is certainly not going to verify. Since the models didn't predict the center reformation, I thought for sure their tracks would be off until a better center was initialized at 12z, but it seems Cristobal is following the path of the older model runs quite expediently.

I had shown a northwest motion for the first 48 hours in response to the reformation.
It has been a really tough storm to forecast, no doubt. I thought last night it was essentially a center wobble from a naked center as the convection to the south was disrupting what little steering there was. Once it began to strengthen, the center would develop it's own deep convection and what was happening south wouldn't really matter. I've seen this kind of thing happen before. It's only in the past 10 years or so that we amateurs have had the tools to minutely examine each little twist and turn. That's not always a good thing in terms of the bigger picture.
1587. palmpt
It's been interesting watching the blog over the last week. The westcasting has been at an all-time high. When it was clear models were ganged up for a north turn, folks hung onto the smallest indications that something (anything) could give them a basis for a west turn... "Trough is not going to pick it up!" "Levi says there's a good chance!" "Levi hasn't counted it out!" Pretty amazing. It's been something to watch. And I might add folks have had smart descriptions of why west could/is happening. And now as it exits right, a final slap at Turks and Caicos, my home away from home. Just as the models said, northeast it goes. And, by the way, Levi, you continue to develop into one of the best. Keep up the great work...
moving fast
1589. GetReal


Mid-level circulation detachment robbing all the energy from the LLC of Chis.
Quoting 1584. SFLWeatherman:


Look at number one.



JB posted a video this morning and he said for the first time all summer ridging is going to set up across the eastern US so when these system form they more than likely will not be heading out to sea as some think on here. JB say people across FL need to watch invest 97L next week. as pressures will be lower across the Gulf, FL, and Bahamas.
1592. sar2401
Quoting Abacosurf:


Not falsifying positions. They followed their protocol. It was from 11 pm to 2 AM not 5 AM.
Not here to argue with you or NHC. Just providing facts. :) I love your smart ass comments to all!! Wouldn't be WU without ya!
Thanks. 11:00 was 24.8. 2:00 was 24.5. Current is 24.7. Do your own math. It's "meandering", as the NHC said. It meant nothing last evening, it means nothing now.
Quoting 1578. wunderweatherman123:

not buying the high latittude. euro doenst either.
it could still form at low latitude and its still going to recurve if it develops fast.
Something intereting from the Navy Site as far as the GFS models take on 97L.

"original circulation continues ahead into the Caribbean, while the circulation that I track heads to the NW."
Another possible twin circulation stretched out from north to with two possible centers fighting it out to become dominant.
Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes! (Tune from Jimmy Buffet nautical song)

It seems the blog's attitude changes whenever a storm gets higher up in Latitudes, such as Cristobal, OTS!

September = Remember !!! It is not over yet ... even in a slow year of named storms .....

Hope to see more storms form, even if they want to be fishes and swim OTS.
Quoting 1593. allancalderini:

it could still form at low latitude and its still going to recurve if it forms fast.
do you expect it to be a tropical storm as it comes off Africa? i don't. GFS being way too agressive with it. euro shows it south of the CV islands as a strong wave. Seems more realistic. no gurantee for anything to recurve. i'm sad the GFS dropped the south CV system :(
It is as if a 2004/2005 steering pattern is underway across the SE US so I would watch anything that the NHC tags now as the pattern coming in is a very good one for landfalling Tropical systems.

And this does not seem right. This GEM Ensemble shows 97L making landfall in NFL, but the 1016mb line is way out to sea. Is that possible?

Quoting 1592. sar2401:

Thanks. 11:00 was 24.8. 2:00 was 24.5. Current is 24.7. Do your own math. It's "meandering", as the NHC said. It meant nothing last evening, it means nothing now.
right now to later from tropical storm Cristobal

The north to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting the
cyclone is forecast to decrease during the next day or so. This
should allow a more favorable environment for strengthening. The
NHC intensity forecast brings Cristobal to hurricane intensity in
a couple of days, which is close to the SHIPS guidance and model
consensus. Late in the forecast period, Cristobal is expected to
become an extratropical cyclone.
Quoting 1594. Sfloridacat5:

Something intereting from the Navy Site as far as the GFS models take on 97L.

"original circulation continues ahead into the Caribbean, while the circulation that I track heads to the NW."
Another possible twin circulation stretched out from north to with two possible centers fighting it out to become dominant.


If it has a TWO circulations, or TWO centers it definitely has to be "DOLLY!!!!"
Look, for those who think anyone with a different take on a storms path or strength is a "wishcaster" I say no storm ever goes where early projections show it going and no one or community has ever been over prepared for a storm strike. When I said Charlie was coming in to FtMeyers years ago you all ridiculed me and over time forgot about me but I am still here and still using my own eyes not models. Old school!
Quoting 1592. sar2401:

Thanks. 11:00 was 24.8. 2:00 was 24.5. Current is 24.7. Do your own math. It's "meandering", as the NHC said. It meant nothing last evening, it means nothing now.
Than possibly they should have said the storm was meandering...instead of moving north at 6 mph. That would have made everyone happy perhaps. but I doubt it. lol
Quoting 1592. sar2401:

Thanks. 11:00 was 24.8. 2:00 was 24.5. Current is 24.7. Do your own math. It's "meandering", as the NHC said. It meant nothing last evening, it means nothing now.


The longer this is stationary the better the chances become that Christobal doesn't go OTS. If it is stationary come tonight or tomorrow then SE US may have a sneaker coming its way.
1605. sar2401
Quoting prcane4you:
So you are not one of those amateurs? I doubt it.
Of course I am. I've also been watching these things for 50 years. That's one of the reasons I have a little more faith in the NHC and don't pay attention to short term changes.
1606. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The longer this is stationary the better the chances become that Christobal doesn't go OTS. If it is stationary come tonight or tomorrow then SE US may have a sneaker coming its way.
It's going OTS. It won't be stationary tomorrow. I have never - not once - been able to do a better job of forecasting a TS than the NHC. If the NHC starts taking about going west, time to get concerned.
1607. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The longer this is stationary the better the chances become that Christobal doesn't go OTS. If it is stationary come tonight or tomorrow then SE US may have a sneaker coming its way.


Wrong. Look at every model spread. Look at the NHC forecast. Its going out to sea. No question about it. No 'sneaker'. No need to try to hype a turn to FL.
Quoting 1580. ExumaMET:



I wish it had been doing that over Exuma... so incredibly dry here.


we do not need that much rain!! remember Noel 2007.............be careful what you wish for:)
Most of the mets in S Fl have not been saying we are out of the woods but rather saying while things look better as far as our chances of any weather from Cristobal you should continue to monitor the progress for any changes that could occur. Reasonable statement I think.
1611. sar2401
Quoting Abacosurf:
Than possibly they should have said the storm was meandering...instead of moving north at 6 mph. That would have made everyone happy perhaps. but I doubt it. lol
I doubt it as well. The NHC isn't in the business of making everyone happy. Anyway, it's clearly not going west. I'm done with this. Have a good day.
Quoting sar2401:
Of course I am. I've also been watching these things for 50 years. That's one of the reasons I have a little more faith in the NHC and don't pay attention to short term changes.


The NHC forecast cone for Christobal has become tighter and further east with time. This shows that they have high confidence in their forecast.
The pattern with Christobal has been a system that continues to adjust its track further away from the U.S.
1613. beell
Can you say "dry air advection"?

Quoting 1604. StormTrackerScott:



The longer this is stationary the better the chances become that Christobal doesn't go OTS. If it is stationary come tonight or tomorrow then SE US may have a sneaker coming its way.


What happens if the naked LLC dies?
1615. GetReal


IMO there is not much chance for that exposed LLC to survive by developing new convection field around it. There is way to much dry air now over that LLC. Probably the only chance this system has to survive and strengthen slowly would be for the current LLC to drift south under the MLC, or for the current LLC to dissipate and a new LLC to form under the MLC.
1617. beell
Can you say "20 to 30 knots of northwest shear and mid-upper subsidence"?





There still is an opportunity for Cat 1 before x-tropical transition-Wednesday?
Quoting 1596. wunderweatherman123:

do you expect it to be a tropical storm as it comes off Africa? i don't. GFS being way too agressive with it. euro shows it south of the CV islands as a strong wave. Seems more realistic. no gurantee for anything to recurve. i'm sad the GFS dropped the south CV system :(
like I said gradually develop and I believe this one is going to form a little closer to the cape verde near the Central Atlantic.
Quoting 1615. GetReal:



IMO there is not much chance for that exposed LLC to survive by developing new convection field around it. There is way to much dry air now over that LLC. Probably the only chance this system has to survive and strengthen slowly would be for the current LLC to drift south under the MLC, or for the current LLC to dissipate and a new LLC to form under the MLC.
My thoughts precisely. The exposed LLC looks like it is suffering rapidly.
1620. JRRP
Quoting 1618. allancalderini:

like I said gradually develop and I believe this one is going to form a little closer to the cape verde near the Central Atlantic.
i believe whatever tries to form will be south of CV. just like the euro is showing
Quoting 1519. guygee:

First-light loop of Cristobal showing partially exposed center on the northern fringe of the deep convection. NHC is expecting reorganization and intensification as the trough pulls out later today.
 photo 2014-08-25-1107Z_Vis.gif


Cristobal was like that all day yesterday too basically, yet he's still been intensifying slowly but surely. Will be interesting to see how he does once he can maintain convection over the whole center rather than partially. :)

Also, nice to see code orange for 97L. If it does develop, I'm going to take it as a major win for the CMC and likely its only one of the season lol. It kept developing it consistently, whilst other models dropped it once or twice (UKmet/NAVGEM).
I don't even think Cristobal knows where he's going or what he's doing, if you look hard enough on the recent infrared image of him, it looks like his coldest tops form a question mark in the middle of his deepest convection. Like a thought bubble. He be confused.



EDIT: And now I can't get the infrared back. I haven't the patience for technology these days.
Good Morning Folks:
Trying to Get There:



Being There:
1625. 900MB
Quoting 1557. KoritheMan:



Agreed. There may be enough of a ridge at 850-700 mb to allow it to stay south of the trailing weakness left behind by Cristobal, but if it becomes vertically deep as it approaches the islands, it will likely not be able to slip underneath the ridge.


The Gulf is feeling very much left out.
How did you call Charley when it was 2004 and your join isnt till 2008? Even if it was 2004, your preaching to a new crowd
Quoting 1602. forecaster1:

Look, for those who think anyone with a different take on a storms path or strength is a "wishcaster" I say no storm ever goes where early projections show it going and no one or community has ever been over prepared for a storm strike. When I said Charlie was coming in to FtMeyers years ago you all ridiculed me and over time forgot about me but I am still here and still using my own eyes not models. Old school!
1627. GetReal


It is easy to see where the LLC is in this pic!

24.7N & 73.0W
Just not sold yet on OTS. Thought this guy would have been on his way NNE out of here by now. Instead it looks like the ball of convection to the south is actually losing latitude.

Maybe it gets ripped to shreds and this is the end. Maybe it ejects the LLC to the north and creates a new LLC under the ball of convection. IDK

I gotta' go with the NHC forecast, but would not be shocked if that forecast changed (and some of the models shift) in the next 24 hours. They are the pros, but Cristobal is really a mess. I think it goes back to its origin from 2 separate waves.
Quoting 1621. wunderweatherman123:

i believe whatever tries to form will be south of CV. just like the euro is showing
And even in that position it will move north remember Danielle in 2010?
My handle was "lookforthethree"
Quoting 1626. palmbaywhoo:

How did you call Charley when it was 2004 and your join isnt till 2008? Even if it was 2004, your preaching to a new crowd

HWRF and GFDL have not been run on 97L yet?
The peak of the Cape Verde season is 11 days away (80% of all Atlantic Season storms) and the Central Atlantic is a desert with very little on the horizon from Africa with a non-existent ITCZ there.  We might end up with some very low CV numbers this season; I don't see a viable CV "storm cluster" on the horizon in the near future.  Or, we could be coming to the end of the active Atlantic phase.......................Discuss among yourselves.


 
UKMET model show 97L developing?
The Year of the E-Pac:


Quoting 1602. forecaster1:

Look, for those who think anyone with a different take on a storms path or strength is a "wishcaster" I say no storm ever goes where early projections show it going and no one or community has ever been over prepared for a storm strike. When I said Charlie was coming in to FtMeyers years ago you all ridiculed me and over time forgot about me but I am still here and still using my own eyes not models. Old school!


The best words I have heard on the board in a long time. Old school should never be forgotten.
1636. K8eCane
Quoting 1634. weathermanwannabe:

The Year of the E-Pac:





Mama Nature WILL find a way
I vaguely remember losing my original handle like 8-10 years ago. Some kind of WU snafu.

I used to post on winter weather blogs when we were living in Maine. I lost my original handle or may be I just lost my password (lol). I believe my original handle was Snowhaoleboy. I also lurked here when Katrina was on the prowl. I remember being bummed because I thought she would be a fish and bring me some fall New England waves. I remember she disspated and was basically left for dead. Well the rest is history.

Quoting 1630. forecaster1:

My handle was "lookforthethree"
1638. MahFL
Quoting 1628. HaoleboySurfEC:

Instead it looks like the ball of convection to the south is actually losing latitude.


It is from 25 kts of N to NNW shear.
1639. MahFL
Quoting 1619. Abacosurf:
The exposed LLC looks like it is suffering rapidly.


Actually the inner band of clouds is getting better.


Quoting 1608. canelane23N75W:



we do not need that much rain!! remember Noel 2007.............be careful what you wish for:)


true. But I have my wife here so I would be just fine with a day or two of solid rain :D
That ball of convection to the south of the exposed LLC looks like it is going to get stuffed back through the Windward Passage.

Quoting 1619. Abacosurf:

My thoughts precisely. The exposed LLC looks like it is suffering rapidly.
Hi Sfloridacat5, if your going to keep posting that picture representing a fish storm at least use a saltwater fish. I highly doubt you will find to many freshwater large mouth bass out in the middle of the Atlantic. If JB is right and the setup for more land falling storms is happening I don't care how many storms form, it only takes one to ruin your year. This is getting old with all these weak storms it's time for some real storms in the Atlantic like Marie is in the EPAC.
Quoting 1636. K8eCane:



Mama Nature WILL find a way


Yup; Met 101. Tropical storms are natures way of releasing/disbursing the Earths/Oceanic heat content (whether in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere summer periods). The E-Pac/Pacific is taking care of the Northern Hemisphere so far.
1644. JRRP
1645. GetReal


There is currently an opening for Chris to escape off towards the NE, but he has not so far taken the bait. The steering layer is weak and confused, accounting for the current erratic drifting around. Just how long before that escape route towards the NE closes???
1646. MahFL
Quoting 1644. JRRP:




Looks like a re-run of 96L, but will there be another trough this time, or will the USA's luck run out ( Arthurs landfalling not withstanding).
1647. MahFL
Quoting 1645. GetReal:



There is currently an opening for Chris


It's Cris, without the H.
I think Cristobol always had at least 2 convection areas of spin. The storm could never get vertically aligned. The southern area of the storm always had the most convection mid levels, but lower level low was never supported by much moisture. This is how most storms have been for many years now. Call it what you want shear, dry air or dunno?

It was like a switch was turned off after 2005 and we were still expecting a prolific storm season to follow in the coming years. What followed was storm like Ike and Sandy that were puzzles of the brain. What we have now is blobs that get close to the US so we better classify them because you never know.

Our whole weather community takes too much respect with the models and have lost visual outlooks of what sometimes is in our faces.
Cristobal is a very ugly boring storm. I'm ready for Dolly.eventually all that energy should get blasted NE. time to focus on 97L and the wave over africa
Link ENE wind west end
Link NW wind lake worth.

little vort between the 2.

1651. StormWx
Interesting 850mb vorticity we have going on. Its like the trof has attached itself to cristobal. Say bye bye!

1652. FOREX
Quoting 1651. StormWx:

Interesting 850mb vorticity we have going on. Its like the trof has attached itself to cristobal. Say bye bye!


bye. Thanks for making me lose sleep all week for nothing.
1653. GetReal
It appears that the ULL to the SW of Chris is has some effect on the steering, possibly not allowing him to take the exit just yet, and trying to slowly tug him west.

The relative lack of Atlantic major "hurricanes" is the story of the last few seasons. Too early to see where this season will end up but it seems a bit perplexing and something that papers and research will try to address if we have another proliferation of tropical storms/weaker hurricanes this year. I don't have a clue as exactly why conditions have been so unfavorable in the Central Atlantic the past three seasons now (including two past neutral seasons)......................An upcoming La Nina year in the future would be a good one to see how the numbers and intensities pan out for comparison.
Good morning everybody busy day for me yesterday did I miss any activity out there
Quoting 1646. MahFL:



Looks like a re-run of 96L, but will there be another trough this time, or will the USA's luck run out ( Arthurs landfalling not withstanding).


We saw the same thing with the models with Cris. The trough has been on the east coast all summer. Storms coming from this direction have no chance hitting the SE or East coast or travelling through the Caribbean and eventually into the GOM.
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
How did you call Charley when it was 2004 and your join isnt till 2008? Even if it was 2004, your preaching to a new crowd


And another curious question, how did he call us all out on Charley when the blog didn't exist until April 2005?
1658. hydrus
1659. K8eCane
Now if something gets going in GOM in coming days, this blog will be a jet propulsion ludicrous speed eyeball bouncing dynamo. I been trying ti rig up an F8 button that i can use with my right big toe because my mouse gets greasy from the butter on my popcorn. Its a good time as long as no one gets hurt out there. Thats when the fun stops for me.
Quoting 1651. StormWx:

Interesting 850mb vorticity we have going on. Its like the trof has attached itself to cristobal. Say bye bye!


Interesting little hook off palm beach too.
Wonder if this is the seedling that drifts west into gulf as cristobal heads off.

Definite major wind shift between west end and lake worth. 70 miles apart.
I don't think 97L will recurve because it will stay weak just like all the other systems have this year but once it gets out of the MDR region and into the Carribean we could be looking at something
Someone mentioned this last night, and it bears repeating, that the GFS was definitely not having convective feedback issues with 96L/Cristobal. All the convection northeast of him is exactly as the GFS predicted. We should probably be less quick to jump to the feedback conclusion in the future. Same thing happened with Debby. The GFS certainly didn't nail this storm, I think the ECMWF was probably the best and most consistent (though not perfect), but it did a good job from about Saturday evening on. This was a very hard forecast for quite awhile, I think the NHC did a great job with genesis predictions and early track forecasting given the information available.

Quoting 1658. hydrus:


Cristobal has been exposed!.(Literally).
Visually...either that LLC is stationary or possibly moving westward the last few frames. Someone see something different?

Quoting 1650. Abacosurf:

Link ENE wind west end
Link NW wind lake worth.

little vort between the 2.


1665. JRRP
Quoting MahFL:


Looks like a re-run of 96L, but will there be another trough this time, or will the USA's luck run out ( Arthurs landfalling not withstanding).

yeah.. similar
Tuesday

Wednesday

palm bch post had a basic hurricane forum back in the mid 90s. they were the first. barometor bob ,cyclone, surfdog and others posted. it was working good till they started posting ads and putting a halt to the constant bickering. then a bunch of disgruntled posters formed their own blog. they named it storm 2k. i believe dr masters started his about this time too. barometer bob and a couple others had blogs but they got sick of all hassles acc/ with the business. so yes we blogged that storm and others. the first group of people to a start their own forums were the grateful dead deadheads. they had forums back in the mid 80s they did not talk weather though. steve jobs and many other famous people had handles
1668. MahFL
Quoting 1657. CybrTeddy:



And another curious question, how did he call us all out on Charley when the blog didn't exist until April 2005?


Yes it did, my join date : Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
Quoting 1640. ExumaMET:



true. But I have my wife here so I would be just fine with a day or two of solid rain :D


let it rain.......let it rain!! and pace yourself!! nice glass of Jagermeister on the rocks will keep you up.......for all that hard , driving rain!!
africa is going to pop out another invest in a couple days. a few yrs ago they had a station there in west africa to monitor the pressure falls. any of you characters know if its still active?
Stalled-out frontal boundary, upper-level ridging aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures = a recipe for potential tropical cyclone development if you ask me.

Quoting 1664. HaoleboySurfEC:

Visually...either that LLC is stationary or possibly moving westward the last few frames. Someone see something different?



I was referencing wind switch between West end Bahamas and lake worth Fl. It is mostly frontal in nature but definitely a little vort as shown.

Cristobal just chillin in place.
Quoting 1671. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stalled-out frontal boundary, upper-level ridging aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures = a recipe for potential tropical cyclone development if you ask me.


No question. Thats the fun part! The game continues on!
Thanks trying to look it up on my mobile..I have fat fingers...
Quoting 1668. MahFL:



Yes it did, my join date : Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
1676. GetReal


There is some energy heading SW towards the central GOM; the possible seed.
Just for clarity regarding member signup dates...
One could become a member of the site prior to 2005, but the blogs were not open to public comment until April 2005. Many wu handles have join dates prior to 2005. Early join dates are photographers and those who came here for weather info, and possibly personal weather station owners.
Add:
JeffMasters blog archive
the gulf is levi's he discussed it a couple days ago. sorry taz
1679. JRRP
Quoting islander101010:
africa is going to pop out another invest in a couple days. a few yrs ago they had a station there in west africa to monitor the pressure falls. any of you characters know if its still active?

dakar ?
Yes looks like Cristobal (LLC) has been stationary the last 6 hours.

Quoting 1672. Abacosurf:


I was referencing wind switch between West end Bahamas and lake worth Fl. It is mostly frontal in nature but definitely a little vort as shown.

Cristobal just chillin in place.
Quoting 1676. GetReal:



There is some energy heading SW towards the central GOM; the possible seed.


Looks like it could be the Gulf's first quick-spin-up in a while. Bears watching.
Well, it certainly looks like Cristobal was a repeat of Bertha. I'm just hoping that as the trough moves out that Cristobal can get its act together and gives us a nice eye on the way out to sea (and hopefully not hitting Bermuda).
The longer he sits, the less Dolly will have to fuel herself with if she takes a similar path
1685. Grothar
Quoting 1660. Abacosurf:

Interesting little hook off palm beach too.
Wonder if this is the seedling that drifts west into gulf as cristobal heads off.

Definite major wind shift between west end and lake worth. 70 miles apart.


I think this little blob is what may develop and move west.

Quoting Envoirment:
Well, it certainly looks like Cristobal was a repeat of Bertha. I'm just hope that as the trough moves out that Cristobal can get its act together and gives us a nice eye on the way out to sea (and hopefully not hitting Bermuda).
Quoting Grothar:


I think this little blob is what may develop and move west.

which way will it go after it develops.
1687. Grothar
Quoting 1657. CybrTeddy:



And another curious question, how did he call us all out on Charley when the blog didn't exist until April 2005?


Hey, I nailed the track of Hazel in 1954 and no one even mentions it. You all have short memories!! :)
So, we could potentially end up with Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard & Fay in the space of a couple weeks if 97L develops/the gulf pop up develops & the wave the GFS is showing develops. Exciting! :)
Quoting 1664. HaoleboySurfEC:

Visually...either that LLC is stationary or possibly moving westward the last few frames. Someone see something different?



It looks to me like the LLC is moving off and leaving the rest of the storm behind.
Rainy Day in WPB
12Z NAM at 36 hours showing the "Texas Blob."

1692. calder
I've lurked since before then
1693. Grothar
Quoting 1686. HurricaneAndre:

which way will it go after it develops.


With the high over it, I would assume west at this point.
Quoting 1685. Grothar:



I think this little blob is what may develop and move west.


Yea...so wait....did you already see it? :)
1695. GetReal
Quoting 1685. Grothar:



I think this little blob is what may develop and move west.





Is this an official blob alert Gro????
Quoting 1686. HurricaneAndre:

which way will it go after it develops.
Texas probably.
Quoting 1646. MahFL:



Looks like a re-run of 96L, but will there be another trough this time, or will the USA's luck run out ( Arthurs landfalling not withstanding).
Have never hear of a model call Aemi until know.
Quoting 1663. washingtonian115:

Cristobal has been exposed!.(Literally).
Reminds me of Chris in 2006 when he exposed himself until dead.
1697. calder
or not as it seems. Shame. Anyways, I'm on a seismic survey boat in the Caribbean currently at 13N 74W, first time in 3 and half weeks we've had <4m seas. Finally how it should be down here :).

PS: Love watching the battle of the wishers versus the nay-sayers
12Z NAM at 45 hours. "Texas Blob" is having a hard time with all that hot dry air over Texas.
1699. Grothar


For a 60 mph tropical storm that's strengthening, this thing sure is ugly...
Quoting 1687. Grothar:



Hey, I nailed the track of Hazel in 1954 and no one even mentions it. You all have short memories!! :)


My computer had a broken vacuum tube and I couldn't access the blog.


I'm sincerely hoping the DC area doesn't get nailed by another Hazel. With our weak power
and infrastructure, it would be a disaster.

1704. Patrap


Quoting 1699. Grothar:






Same story different name- *sigh*
Quoting 1703. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good morning Marie...
If that trof that Christobal is now embeded in dropped down about 1000 miles between Africa and the Caribbean, it would look more like the typical late-August ITCZ monsoon trof.......................
1708. K8eCane
Nobody should put away the popcorn yet ( oh and the Red Bull)
Let's hope that little blob in the GOM stays just that. I leave my home in Houston and head back to work in Baton Rouge this afternoon and I would hate for something to spin up and have my wife and kids here and me in BR. Wouldn't be fun at all.
Quoting 1643. weathermanwannabe:



Yup; Met 101. Tropical storms are natures way of releasing/disbursing the Earths/Oceanic heat content (whether in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere summer periods). The E-Pac/Pacific is taking care of the Northern Hemisphere so far.


They're actually a minor term in the heat budget and the general circulation would be almost the same without them. However I'll take this opportunity to point out that my previous post making the same point omitted one crucial issue. They are a LARGE term in the rainfall budgets of large parts of the subtropics and even the late summer midlatitudes and these regions would be a lot drier without tropical cyclones. Thanks SAR (and others but I remerber Sar's post) for pointing this out.

About 20% of DC metro August rainfall and 30% of the September rainfall is associated with tropical cyclones.


1711. txjac
Quoting 1698. Sfloridacat5:

12Z NAM at 45 hours. "Texas Blob" is having a hard time with all that hot dry air over Texas.



Personally just hoping for a bit of rain ...I'll even go with more than a bit
1712. Grothar
Quoting 1695. GetReal:




Is this an official blob alert Gro????


Not yet, but I'm sure by tomorrow, I will make it official.
1713. ricderr
5 day cmc spins up our next player


1714. Grothar
Quoting 1694. Abacosurf:

Yea...so wait....did you already see it? :)


For sure! It looks like Texas might get a little rain.
So where's our favorite forecast Scott? Is Cris still going through South Fl and making a second landfall in the Panhandle like his insisted?
1716. hydrus
Quoting 1713. ricderr:

5 day cmc spins up our next player



Yep..Hurricane center is taking more interest in it.
1717. ricderr
ecmwf does not...

MDR ssts... highest they have been all summer. perfect for september. might be the reason why GFS shows active september. that and low SAL
Quoting 1717. ricderr:

ecmwf does not...


ECMWF had no interest in cristobal either until is got all the way to the islands.
1720. ricderr
ECMWF had no interest in cristobal either until is got all the way to the islands.




very true
1721. ricderr
the 5 days out.....is meaningful....if we do not have another named storm through the end of the month....we will be dead on average for number of storms during a forming el nino year.....average...3.2.......this year....3
The hot dry air isn't as bad as you think. Just remember though it's just the nam.
1723. StormWx
Quoting luvtogolf:
So where's our favorite forecast Scott? Is Cris still going through South Fl and making a second landfall in the Panhandle like his insisted?


lol, always disappears after his forecasts misses to avoid criticism. Just take everything he says about FL landfalls with a grain of salt.
1724. Grothar
The center is far removed from the deep convection in the south. However, it looks like an arm to the NE of the center is trying to wrap around again

Quoting 1721. ricderr:

the 5 days out.....is meaningful....if we do not have another named storm through the end of the month....we will be dead on average for number of storms during a forming el nino year.....average...3.2.......this year....3


We're not "dead on average." We are .2 behind:)
Quoting 1718. wunderweatherman123:

MDR ssts... highest they have been all summer. perfect for september. might be the reason why GFS shows active september. that and low SAL
yep SAL is put in place
1727. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
the 5 days out.....is meaningful....if we do not have another named storm through the end of the month....we will be dead on average for number of storms during a forming el nino year.....average...3.2.......this year....3


We are not far behind from an average year either Ric. I believe the NHC is going to hit the nail on the head with the 9-11 storms predicted this year. The 4th named storm could very well be 97L and that will be right on schedule.
Quoting 1723. StormWx:



lol, always disappears after his forecasts misses to avoid criticism. Just take everything he says about FL landfalls with a grain of salt.


And then he'll come back and say he's only ever been wrong once in a forecast.
1729. ricderr
take some if you need it

1730. will40
some parts of Bahamas prob getting soaked
1731. accu35
Tell you the truth I'm more interested of a gulf home grown storm.
1732. ricderr
We are not far behind from an average year either Ric. I believe the NHC is going to hit the nail on the head with the 9-11 storms predicted this year. The 4th named storm could very well be 97L and that will be right on schedule.



very well could be........i just enjoy seeing if the math verifies or not.......nhc does a great job and they don't get near the credit they deserve
1734. ricderr

Tell you the truth I'm more interested of a gulf home grown storm.

anyone seen any model that has latched onto this?
Yeah that would stink.

Baton Rouge...try Parrain's for dinner. Very local. The beer selection is wonderful too. First time I ever had gator.

Quoting 1709. TcuFrogs:

Let's hope that little blob in the GOM stays just that. I leave my home in Houston and head back to work in Baton Rouge this afternoon and I would hate for something to spin up and have my wife and kids here and me in BR. Wouldn't be fun at all.
1736. K8eCane
Quoting 1712. Grothar:



Not yet, but I'm sure by tomorrow, I will make it official.


Gro would you be able to make us some BLOB models?
Quoting 1712. Grothar:



Not yet, but I'm sure by tomorrow, I will make it official.
If you look careful in the last frames you can see the central gulf blob connected to the palm beach blob and the palm beach blob connected to the tail end of the cristobal blob. :)

1738. StormWx
im ready for the fall, too bad its still a ways away.



Keep watchin the GOM in the upcoming week, you never know something could spin up.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud
mass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR
winds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a central
pressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surface
wind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically
north-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has been
impeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours
by keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,
and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,
a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture
Cristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast while
the Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.
The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing
scenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt has
been affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside
to around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some
slight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to
strengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes to
the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4
and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and
encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in
extratropical transition by 120 hours.

Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible
flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.
Quoting 1687. Grothar:



Hey, I nailed the track of Hazel in 1954 and no one even mentions it. You all have short memories!! :)
Gro...I remember that day....I was tending bar at Snapper's in Key Largo at the time....My computer was acting up that day...A Thursday if I remember correctly, and hotter than hell that day
1742. ricderr
Keep watchin the GOM in the upcoming week, you never know something could spin up.


dry week for you stormy.......when i am forecast to have as much precip as florida
1743. sflmike
So the latest NAMM model shows part of Cristabol going north east and the bulk of it staying south and eventually heading north but closer to Florida before turning Ne.
1744. Grothar
Quoting 1736. K8eCane:



Gro would you be able to make us some BLOB models?


That would be too showy. I think suspense is the best form of entertainment.
06z GFS ensemble members, FWIW:

Quoting 1704. Patrap:



Alicia?
1747. IDTH
Quoting 1687. Grothar:



Hey, I nailed the track of Hazel in 1954 and no one even mentions it. You all have short memories!! :)

I didn't join till this year but I nailed Irene's track in 2011. I Predicted the center relocating to the north and that easily put NC in the cross-hairs.
Quoting 1671. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stalled-out frontal boundary, upper-level ridging aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures = a recipe for potential tropical cyclone development if you ask me.



This could quickly spin up especially with the warm waters and with the ridging over it only question is the dry air associated with that trough, because if our system is anywhere near that dry air it could very well not develop at all.
1748. Grothar
Quoting 1741. PalmBeachWeather:

Gro...I remember that day....I was tending bar at Snapper's in Key Largo at the time....My computer was acting up that day...A Thursday if I remember correctly, and hotter than hell that day


Now you're a friend. I'm glad someone is around who remembers.

Even though Hazel went up through Pennsylvania and Canada, the winds were so wide they had gusts over 100 mph as far out as Long Island.

1749. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
Keep watchin the GOM in the upcoming week, you never know something could spin up.


dry week for you stormy.......when i am forecast to have as much precip as florida


I'll take dry, its been wet for a while here. Plus i have beach plans for Labor Day weekend and i expect sunny skies and no hyping of landfalling hurricanes 5 days out :o)
1750. ke6ont
So what is happening to Marie in the eastern Pacific? And is there any indication if or when Marie will turn east towards the coast?
1751. ricderr
I'll take dry, its been wet for a while here. Plus i have beach plans for Labor Day weekend and i expect sunny skies and no hyping of landfalling hurricanes 5 days out :o)


i see cris doing a spin.......hitting you smack dab in the middle...and dropping 20-30 inches of rain
Quoting 1744. Grothar:



That would be too showy. I think suspense is the best form of entertainment.
Is that another wardrobe malfunction joke
1753. will40
recon just took off
1754. Grothar
Quoting 1748. Grothar:



Now you're a friend. I'm glad someone is around who remembers.

Even though Hazel went up through Pennsylvania and Canada, the winds were so wide they had gusts over 100 mph as far out as Long Island.




I think that blogger is blogging up from the GOM Universe, where 90% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic go into the GOM.

Quoting 1741. PalmBeachWeather:

Gro...I remember that day....I was tending bar at Snapper's in Key Largo at the time....My computer was acting up that day...A Thursday if I remember correctly, and hotter than hell that day
Remember that place; my Bud in the Keys, out of Key Largo, named "Jorge" is the yellow tail snapper fisherman/king down there for the past 30 years and supplies most of the Yellow tail to all the restaurants..........................He has been based out of Key Largo Ocean Resort near PennyCamp since the 1970's.............Some of my best memories of childhood in the 70's running around with him then in a Boston Whaler hanging out in Key Largo Sound fishing. 
Well there you have it.

Good surf producer for the east coast.

Quoting 1740. weathermanwannabe:

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud
mass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR
winds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a central
pressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surface
wind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically
north-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has been
impeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours
by keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,
and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,
a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture
Cristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast while
the Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.
The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing
scenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt has
been affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside
to around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some
slight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to
strengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes to
the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4
and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and
encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in
extratropical transition by 120 hours.

Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible
flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.

Quoting 1724. Grothar:

The center is far removed from the deep convection in the south. However, it looks like an arm to the NE of the center is trying to wrap around again




It's been trying all morning, the kicker is that the trough keeps tugging at his arm going like "GET OVER HERE THIS INSTANT" and Cristobal's being stubborn.
1759. K8eCane
Quoting 1744. Grothar:



That would be too showy. I think suspense is the best form of entertainment.


You are quite right, as always. I simply was not thinking.
Quoting 1756. weathermanwannabe:


Remember that place; my Bud in the Keys, out of Key Largo, named "Jorge" is the yellow tail snapper fisherman/king down there for the past 30 years and supplies most of the Yellow tail to all the restaurants..........................He has been based out of Key Largo Ocean Resort near PennyCamp since the 1970's.............Some of my best memories of childhood in the 70's running around with him then in a Boston Whaler hanging out in Key Largo Sound fishing.Actually it is in Tavernier, but everyone says Key Largo wannabe...
1761. Grothar



Quoting 1760. PalmBeachWeather:




That and going to the Copper Kettle for breakfast every time I was in the Keys in 90's.......................
Quoting 1751. ricderr:

I'll take dry, its been wet for a while here. Plus i have beach plans for Labor Day weekend and i expect sunny skies and no hyping of landfalling hurricanes 5 days out :o)


i see cris doing a spin.......hitting you smack dab in the middle...and dropping 20-30 inches of rain
I'll keep that in mind ric...You are always the first one I look at for for expertness.(Is that a word)?
For a 60 mph tropical storm that's strengthening, this thing sure is ugly but the wind shear will go down in a few days
Quoting 1762. weathermanwannabe:




That and going to the Copper Kettle for breakfast every time I was in the Keys in 90's.......................
Still there wannabe
Quoting 1746. opal92nwf:


Alicia?


blog would explode
Quoting 1702. georgevandenberghe:



My computer had a broken vacuum tube and I couldn't access the blog.


I'm sincerely hoping the DC area doesn't get nailed by another Hazel. With our weak power
and infrastructure, it would be a disaster.




Yea because we'd get the full blast before she makes it there
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
NAM at 84 hours - GOM blob is inland over S. Texas
If Cristobal can get its act together and become a hurricane then that will make 3 hurricanes in a row so far that's not really that bad
1771. GatorWX
1772. LargoFl
Anyone have the link to the slow-scan RAMMB GOES-14 Cristobal imagery?
1774. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
1775. LargoFl
some rain coming your way texas............................................. ........
1776. LargoFl
1777. LargoFl
97L................................................ .................................................. ......
Quoting 1642. NativeSun:

Hi Sfloridacat5, if your going to keep posting that picture representing a fish storm at least use a saltwater fish. I highly doubt you will find to many freshwater large mouth bass out in the middle of the Atlantic. If JB is right and the setup for more land falling storms is happening I don't care how many storms form, it only takes one to ruin your year. This is getting old with all these weak storms it's time for some real storms in the Atlantic like Marie is in the EPAC.


You obviously don't live in S. Florida. Andrew erased Homestead off the map In the neighborhood where I lived there wasn't a single stick left standing. Recently in 2006 I spent 2 hours in the closet with a mattress over my head while Wilma tried hard to demolish my house. If you had those experiences you might not be wishing storms like Marie in the Atlantic.
1779. LargoFl
Quoting 1778. bocawind:



You obviously don't live in S. Florida. Andrew erased Homestead off the map In the neighborhood where I lived there wasn't a single stick left standing. Recently in 2006 I spent 2 hours in the closet with a mattress over my head while Wilma tried hard to demolish my house. If you had those experiences you might not be wishing storms like Marie in the Atlantic.
yes we dont need any cat-4 or 5's around here
Any thoughts on how our Cristobol is going to escape with all the high pressure in the Atlantic surrounding it? Surface maps show High pressure moving in, in all directions?