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Tropical Storm Colin Chugs Toward Florida, May Strengthen Off Southeast Coast

By: Bob Henson 4:12 PM GMT on June 06, 2016

Despite its disorganized structure, ragtag Tropical Storm Colin gained a bit of strength Sunday night as it continued churning toward an expected landfall Monday night on the Big Bend of Florida’s northwest Gulf Coast. As of 11 AM EDT Monday, Colin was located at 27.0°N, 87.0°W, or about 285 miles west-southwest of Tampa, FL, moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood on the Florida Gulf Coast and from Sebastian Inlet, FL, to South Santee River, SC, on the Southeast U.S. coast. Colin’s top sustained winds increased to 50 mph overnight, leaving it in the weaker half of the tropical storm range. Little if any further intensification is expected before tonight’s landfall, as the storm’s structure is not conductive to strengthening. Vertical wind shear of 20 - 30 knots (25 - 35 mph) is helping to keep nearly all of Colin’s showers and thunderstorms (convection) displaced well to the east of the storm’s low-level center. The resulting comma shape starting to become evident on Monday morning is a classic marker of a tropical cyclone under the influence of increasing upper-level flow.


Figure 1. Infrared NOAA GOES image of Tropical Storm Colin as of 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Monday, June 6, 2016. The center of Colin is faintly visible in the grey cloud mass just to the west of the bright red/orange area (which indicates very high, cold cloud tops). Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.


Figure 2. Unlike a more prototypical tropical cyclone, Colin features a broad area of southerly low-level winds ahead of its center, rather than winds across a large area rotating around its center. Shown here is data posted at 1502Z (11:02 AM EDT) Monday, June 6, 2016, from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard the European Metop-A satellite. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS and ASCAT/MetOp

Colin will sweep by Southeast U.S. coast over next 24 hours
Colin is being steered by a large area of southwesterly upper winds ahead of an upper-level trough extending from the northeast U.S. into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This trough will keep the storm on a fairly well-defined track and will keep its structure asymmetric. A gradual curve to the right will take Colin across the Florida Peninsula overnight, with the storm emerging over the Atlantic just off the Southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. Computer models agree that Colin will hug the coast while gaining forward speed on Tuesday, with the center likely just southeast of the Outer Banks by Tuesday afternoon and well east of the U.S. coast by Tuesday night. Tropical storm warnings may be extended northward along the Southeast coast, and Colin’s top sustained winds may actually increase slightly during the storm’s brief trek along the Southeast coast, as energy from upper levels feeds into Colin and the storm begins the process of transitioning into a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. Because of the forward component of motion and the storm’s pre-existing asymmetry, the winds on Tuesday will be considerably stronger on the offshore side of Colin than on the coastal side. The well-defined steering currents will keep Colin from attempting any leftward curve that could hook it into the East Coast. Colin may reach its peak intensity as a strong tropical storm or post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday as it moves well east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.


Figure 3. WU depiction of official forecast track of Tropical Storm Colin as of 11 AM EDT Monday, June 6, 2016.


Figure 4. Radar image for Tropical Storm Colin at 11:24 AM Monday, June 6, 2016. The image was produced using WU’s WunderMap with the “radar” feature turned on.

Torrential downpours will likely be the most widespread impact from Tropical Storm Colin. A large area of heavy rain on Monday morning extended from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina, with intense rainbands streaming northward into Florida’s West Coast (see Figure 4 above). NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of Florida and far southeast Georgia in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through Monday night, with a few tornadoes possible. As Colin sweeps to the northeast, heavy rain can be expected along the immediate Southeast coast late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Flash flood watches are in effect from the northern Georgia coast to the Outer Banks, which have already been hard hit by torrential rains associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie. Cape Hatteras, NC, has received 6.15” of rain in the first five days of June after a record 12.67” in May, most of that during Memorial Day weekend. This is already the second wettest June on record for Cape Hatteras (although the 14.34” racked up in June 1949 will be hard to top).

Storm surge risk along Florida’s Gulf Coast
Strong southwest flow on Colin’s east side may produce a storm surge along Florida’s Gulf Coast on Monday. The risk for high water will be greatest to the east of the eventual point of landfall, with more general enhancement along the coast several hours earlier, around the time of the mid-afternoon high tide. NHC is projecting a potential storm surge of 1 to 3 feet (perhaps higher in some areas) along the immediate coastline from Indian Pass south to Tampa Bay, with 1 to 2 feet possible south of Tampa Bay to Florida Bay. According to storm surge expert Hal Needham, the most vulnerable place for high water from Colin may be the Big Bend area from Apalachee Bay to Cedar Key, where the topography of the concave coast is especially conducive to producing surge. In a blog post published midday Monday, Needham projects a surge in the Cedar Key region of around 2.5 feet near high tide on Monday afternoon (around 3 PM EDT). Combined with tidal levels, this would produce a total water level (storm tide) at Cedar Key of around 4.7 feet above mean sea level (dubbed NAVD 88). This would be Cedar Key’s ninth highest storm tide in records going back to 1920, and it would be several inches higher than the water level produced in Cedar Key by Tropical Storm Debby in 2012.


Figure 5. If Tropical Storm Colin produces a peak storm tide on Monday afternoon of 4.72 feet, as projected by storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, it would be the ninth highest storm tide in records going back to 1920. This image was generated through Needham’s “U-Surge” dataset. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Colin is the earliest “C” storm in Atlantic history
Never before have we been tracking the Atlantic’s third named storm of a calendar year this early in the year. As noted in a weather.com article, there have been two other “C” storms as early as June since current naming practices began in the 1950s: Hurricane Chris (which began as a named subtropical storm on June 18, 2012) and Tropical Storm Candy (June 23, 1968). Going all the way back to 1851, the previous earliest appearance of the season’s third storm was June 12, 1887, although some early-season storms were undoubtedly missed during the pre-satellite era.

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. MahFL
Stalled in the Big Bend ?

{Just a blank comment, dont mind me}
Quoting 499. Patrap:




Colin's circulation has been completely stripped by wind shear.
Quoting 502. Famoguy1234:

According to the Radar that wilsonbiggs provided, it seems as though the circulation is still off the coast, but stalled.

505. skook
The rain has let up in tampa, but the wind kicked up, 20-30 mph gust quite often.



Ok they have not passed yet, but they are well south - near Venice beach. Winds are at 45 mph there. Nowhere near the potential landfall.

Go HERE and mouse over the arrows.
Did Colin stall?
So now that Colin is going to die soon, when do you guys think Danielle will form?
A. Before the end of June
B. July
C. August
Quoting 509. HurricaneFan:

So now that Colin is going to die soon, when do you guys think Danielle will form?
A. Before the end of June
B. July
C. August
A
Quoting 488. Famoguy1234:

We have landfall with Colin near Fish Creek FL from the latest radar imagery.

Landfall is with 50 MPH winds.

?

The center is still 25 miles offshore.
Quoting 509. HurricaneFan:

So now that Colin is going to die soon, when do you guys think Danielle will form?
A. Before the end of June
B. July
C. August


Can't even wait for the body to get cold can you? lol
The Euro showed a weak T.S headed for Texas a few days ago (it has since dropped it) but I'm guessing the energy was from the current T.D over Mexico.I'm not sure what went wrong perhaps Colin has got the models all confused too.
Quoting 506. daddyjames:




Ok they have not passed yet, but they are well south - near Venice beach. Winds are at 45 mph there. Nowhere near the potential landfall.

Go HERE and mouse over the arrows.

45 mph sustained winds. 200 miles south from the actual center. What a weird storm and distinctive storm, Andrea was more organized than Colin.
Quoting 511. TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

The center is still 25 miles offshore.


Flaming
all of your names have "is a dingus" next to it. Is that he blog or a virus?
Quoting 301. VAbeachhurricanes:

Colin will start to really deepen now, this is the best his low level structure has looked and now baroclinic forcings are going to allow him to really strengthen as he moves past Florida and rides up the east coast out to sea.

Greetings and Blessings to all!
Quite agreed...although of course Colin is not your usual prototypical tropical cyclone especially for the month of June- See previous June (Florida) storm appearance and structure- usually a messy type- case in Point:- Barry (2007), Debby (2012) & Andrea 2013.
Nevertheless, within the last few frames- Colin has consolidated a bit better on the east side than it looked previously. Just upon landfall as is anticipated the system may begin to assume a a bit more well stacked structure- which is more typical anyway for the storms later in the season as it zips into the Atlantic...Time will tell though.
Meanwhile in the islands- dealing appropriately with a Flood watch issued as a new area of convection associated with the tropical wave in our vicinity comes through. Notable vorticity too with these waves...we will be keeping a close eye- especially for our island coming on the heels of 'evil Erika' just last year.
Let's all pray for the best in what may be a trying season, but prepare for the worst as well.
Blessings to everyone!
Great the blog has been hacked - bye
Quoting 517. gator23:

all of your names have "is a dingus" next to it. Is that he blog or a virus?


blog has been hacked
colin is not a typical t.c. this is from the tropical weather decision this evening.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 200 NM SE QUADRANT

how often do you see that?
LOL now this is funny
Quoting 517. gator23:

all of your names have "is a dingus" next to it. Is that he blog or a virus?



wounder blogs been hacked
LOL...we're all dinguses. :P
Quoting 525. wilsonbiggs:

Blog hasn't been hacked.......


Well, would you not call that a form of hacking - as easy as it may be?
Quoting 525. wilsonbiggs:

Blog hasn't been hacked.......


Considering you admitted to it and what gets banned on here. Bye :P

Also, it is a form of hacking
Quoting 526. Tazmanian:




wounder blogs been hacked


Thanks all. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. It is a funny hack though. Not very nice but funny.
lol where going too have too singed up with new nameds and every things

blogs been hacked
532. Tcwx2
It's been hacked.
I will never understand the fascination of trolling a weather/climate blog.

wilsonbiggs is a dingus
You will get sent to permanent ban village.Good bye.
534. Tcwx2
How do we change our name?
Quoting 532. Tcwx2:

It's been hacked.



is are nameds even safe any more and passwords?


any ways am out of here in tell this is all fixed
Check out my new blog post on weather groups!
Quoting 534. Tcwx2:

How do we change our name?


your new nameds will likey be the same at the end this site has been hacked i would not do any thing in tell the admin take care of it


admins i would shut the oh site down in tell this is looked in too
538. Tcwx2
Please stay we need good true people like you to stay, I imagine WU operators are working on it right now.
Quoting 535. Tazmanian:




is are nameds even safe any more and passwords?


any ways am out of here in tell this is all fixed
Quoting 525. wilsonbiggs:

Blog hasn't been hacked.......


What is worse is that by revealing how you did it, you could have just given insight to someone who would actually want to do something harmful to this site.

Maybe you should think before acting
Quoting 536. Adam2001:

Check out my new blog post on weather groups!


not now sir cant you see the blogs been hacked
Quoting 517. gator23:

all of your names have "is a dingus" next to it. Is that he blog or a virus?

Probably someone monkeying around with the css, javascript or cross site scripting. Imma guess the little italics problem on the last page of comments set someone to experimenting. I see it's on everything with that font text style, not just names, such as "Rich Text" and "Community Standards Policy" near the top of the page. Needs a little TLC but it's hardly a "hack" to worry about.
What in tarnation is going on with this dingus thingy? I have to leave a comment just to see if I'm a dingus too.
Quoting 539. Hurricanes101:



What is worse is that by revealing how you did it, you could have just given insight to someone who would actually want to do something harmful to this site.

Maybe you should think before acting
I imagine that is not a 13 year old girl like what they were saying the other day.Again..I will never understand the fascination of trolling a weather blog....
Anyway...I was wondering, since Colin is looking extratropical but still seems to have a warm core - could we see Colin transition into a subtropical storm at 11PM? It's happened before with two gulf storms, like Allison and Lee.
This is what some invest their time in to. What a joke.
Wow...you really hacked a 14 year olds blog?! Some people need to grow up and contribute to society.
Ah yes, hurricane season.

A most magical time filled with friendship and fun
test
Quoting 539. Hurricanes101:



What is worse is that by revealing how you did it, you could have just given insight to someone who would actually want to do something harmful to this site.

Maybe you should think before acting

I didn't see what he posted since I added him to my ginormous ignore list yesterday, but IMO it's better to know about a problem than let a possible evildoer take advantage of it with no one being any the wiser that a problem exists. In the security world it's called Full Disclosure. The ethical thing to do would have been to report it to the admins, not goof around on a live blog to demonstrate, though.
Quoting 549. nygiants:

test

yeah..in my settings it says nygiants..then popper up as that on whatever that means. Is that everyone else's situation lol. dumb question ik
I knew it! I'm surrounded by dinguses!
Quoting 542. UrcaDeLima:


Probably someone monkeying around with the css, javascript or cross site scripting. Imma guess the little italics problem on the last page of comments set someone to experimenting. I see it's on everything with that font text style, not just names, such as "Rich Text" and "Community Standards Policy" near the top of the page. Needs a little TLC but it's hardly a "hack" to worry about.


Yeah it just someone messing with the HTML output on the site. The fact that most of the blog uses HTML code to allow us to post pictures, etc... is a big mistake on their part. It opens up too many vulnerabilities. This is why any forum administrator of phpBB or Vbulletin boards worth their salt always turned off HTML editing.
I see the people that crave attention have crawled out of the rock from whence they came.
Seems this blog is as big a mess as Colin is lol.
I am most certainly not a dingus
It's people (term used loosely; most likely underwear/basement warriors with backward politics) like this where I sometimes wish there were less oxygen to consume on this planet.
Quoting 548. JrWeathermanFL:

Ah yes, hurricane season.

A most magical time filled with friendship and fun
Okay this made me laugh more than I should have lol.
Quoting 555. Envoirment:

Seems this blog is as big a mess as Colin is lol.


its been hacked
Quoting 556. JrWeathermanFL:

I am most certainly not a dingus

Yes, you are. You are a dingus.
It even says "Community Standards Policy is a dingus", "Rules of the Road" and "How to ignore a Blogger" are dinguses too, oh jeez. I've seen some odd trolling in my time lurking here but this... this is something else.
Our beautiful systems







Just some early season bugs I guess.
Quoting 560. BuckyBeaver:


Yes, you are. You are a dingus.



You get my reply?
Good to see everyone. Cody, Adrian, the whole gang.

I have a feeling this Colin character is going to eject into the high seas, tease Bermuda, then swirl back around and take a Andrew Track right into Miami. Who's on board with this scenario? ^-^
Hahahaha thats too funny, its crazy how this site still lets html in comments affect the actual page, seems like such a security flaw thats easy to fix but is ignored. It's their own fault, anyone with a whiff of systems security experience can patch it yet they ignore it.
Quoting 563. daddyjames:




You get my reply?

I did. Thank you.
Oh nevermind. Guess we're all dedingufied now.

So, how about that Colin eh? Convection finally found out where the COC was but he bumped into land.

What an odd storm, I bet he even did the trolling... somehow.
Check out my new blog post! I have an idea that could be great!
Now that's pretty funny.

On another front, I have found that the buggy android WU app hasn't posted any images in the comments for weeks. At first I found it annoying but I now find it helpful in breezing right past all the comments that are nothing more than a cut and pasted image with no commentary, insight or useful information.
571. ackee
Shear is falling in the eastern carribbean overall shear carribbean finally going down that tropical wave eastern carribbean could moistened region even more
HD drone footage of a partially submerged Texas suburban neighborhood and the end is very interesting.Looks like the residents aren't going anywhere (not by choice either)
Link
Getting a weird addition to stuff in the comments, e. g.:

Rules of the Road is a dingus — How to ignore a blogger is a dingus

Also happening with blogger names in the comments section.

Any clues?
Just because you can hack doesn't mean you should...

I wonder if the 'center' will jump to off the GA coast. I wasn't aware a center jumping by 150 miles is a characteristic of a tropical system. We'll see if the center jumps.
Quoting 569. Adam2001:

Check out my new blog post! I have an idea that could be great!


You've posted this about 20 times in the past day.
Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

I knew it! I'm surrounded by dinguses!
All our dingi are belong to us.
Quoting 574. BaltimoreBrian:

Just because you can hack doesn't mean you should...

I wonder if the 'center' will jump to off the GA coast. I wasn't aware a center jumping by 150 miles is a characteristic of a tropical system. We'll see if the center jumps.


But its not hacking, its literally just putting a code in your comment. Hacking would mean you need to breach something lol
Quoting 575. Bucsboltsfan:



You've posted this about 20 times in the past day.


Maybe its an awesome blog post
Quoting 577. VAbeachhurricanes:



But its not hacking, its literally just putting a code in your comment. Hacking would mean you need to breach something lol


It really is hacking because they are making changes to something not belonging to them without the owners permission.
Colin is now moving practically due east. If this is the case, the center will come ashore south of all the models projections. Should be making landfall right about advisory time.

Dat funktop green tho.
Funny, now all the posts referring to it should be deleted, don't want to give anyone else any ideas.
Quoting 575. Bucsboltsfan:



You've posted this about 20 times in the past day.


A lot of people come on here to learn and are interested about weather, perhaps he/she just wants to get feedback on their weather skills?

I like the enthusiasm.
Quoting 580. ecflweatherfan:

Colin is now moving practically due east. If this is the case, the center will come ashore south of all the models projections. Should be making landfall right about advisory time.
I agree. Winds are from the east as far south as Fernandina Beach.
Sorry if this has caused trouble. Whoever's coding this needs to get this sorted out so it doesn't happen any more. Any site with this large of a userbase should have measures in place to keep this from happening.

And anyone with those sort of abilities shouldn't abuse them.
Quoting 582. daddyjames:

Funny, now all the posts referring to it should be deleted, don't want to give anyone else any ideas.


They should just take 5 minutes and fix it, its their website, their responsibility to secure it. There's no way anything in a comment should be able to affect the actual webpage.
Quoting 581. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Dat funktop green tho.

It was rather large on the image I initially posted. IDK what happened.
Did you get any tropical storm conditions aquak9?
Quoting 573. BahaHurican:

Getting a weird addition to stuff in the comments, e. g.:

Rules of the Road is a dingus — How to ignore a blogger is a dingus

Also happening with blogger names in the comments section.

Any clues?
Nvr mind .... read some comments.

Looks like it's gone now.
Thanks for the feedback Bucsboltsfan. To my defense it was more like 4. I'm a 14 year old guy who likes weather, what do u expect? Lol
592. beell
Colin is a dingus.

Some residents trying to make light of the situation in Texas.
hi B'brian...windy and rainy. Some branches down, a small twister crossed I-10... nothing major.

Hope all is well in your area too.
Quoting 593. washingtonian115:


Need a barbeque pit ...
Quoting 594. aquak9:

hi B'brian...windy and rainy. Some branches down, a small twister crossed I-10... nothing major.

Hope all is well in your area too.
Pretty much as expected, then.

Watching the current movement and I'm thinking Colin wants a dunk in the Gulf Stream right out by y'all ...
I have been following this blog for years now and go to it often to find out what is happening. There are some smart people on here but what happened to maturity? It seems as if someone makes one mistake you get crap for hours. I just want to get good information on the weather events. Where is Gro?
Landfall will be between Steinhatchee and Horseshoe Beach, or so it appears. Quite a ways south and east of NHC track.
Quoting 593. washingtonian115:


Some residents trying to make light of the situation in Texas.


But does he lift though?

Anyways...

Colin the Blobbin
Quoting 591. Adam2001:

Thanks for the feedback Bucsboltsfan. To my defense it was more like 4. I'm a 14 year old guy who likes weather, what do u expect? Lol


My apologies. Maybe I overreacted. Good luck to you.
Quoting 598. 24lowcountrystorm:

I have been following this blog for years now and go to it often to find out what is happening. There are some smart people on here but what happened to maturity? It seems as if someone makes one mistake you get crap for hours. I just want to get good information on the weather events. Where is Gro?

Even the old timers need their rest. He'll crawl out of the woodwork soon.
Quoting 599. ecflweatherfan:

Landfall will be between Steinhatchee and Horseshoe Beach, or so it appears. Quite a ways south and east of NHC track.


Steinhatchee isnt far from me and its also where both Debby and Andrea made landfall
Quoting 599. ecflweatherfan:

Landfall will be between Steinhatchee and Horseshoe Beach, or so it appears. Quite a ways south and east of NHC track.


Convective Bursts displaced to the east of the center, which is still offshore atm.

Quoting 598. 24lowcountrystorm:

I have been following this blog for years now and go to it often to find out what is happening. There are some smart people on here but what happened to maturity? It seems as if someone makes one mistake you get crap for hours. I just want to get good information on the weather events. Where is Gro?


Well, some of us grew up on this site and were immature, but then we left and became more mature but forgot to return :P
Idk what NHC is seeing, but radar indicates landfall to be in rural Dixie County, they have the 1100pm advisory offshore near Keaton Beach in Taylor County. Keaton Beach has been reporting winds from the NE (40 degrees). Which would not make sense if the center is just to the west of there.
I took a drive down to Dauphin Island Alabama and could not
believe just how big the waves were and minor costal flooding
that was going on there....

Link
It has been a while since I posted a link of a video.
It was taken from my dash cam at 2pm CT. today

Taco :o)
Granted, it's not done raining in northern Florida yet, but this could have been much much worse.

Hey, all. Not to disrupt the conversation while a TS is impacting Florida, but this is the first time I've been able to post a comment for about a year. Something to do with my desktop. In any case, hunker down from the wrath of Colin.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

...COLIN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Hope no major damage and no injuries with this storm. Just a wake up call to be prepared in case a stronger storm threatens.

In other news... hard to believe we lost another celebrity today.... Kimbo Slice passed away.

well I see things got out of hand
Quoting 610. cornchucker:

Nothing seems to be legit about this blog anymore given all of the bickering, not to mention that there is virtually nothing tropical in nature about this storm and never has been and naming it it and saying it is the earliest storm, la di da, is simply intellectually dishonest.


This is a tropical storm, just an ugly sheared one.
Quoting 612. BahaHurican:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

...COLIN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




I'm calling their bluff. Lol. Keaton Beach reporting NNE winds (30 degrees) as of 11pm. And they are east of the NHC's supposed center, which makes no sense, because winds would be S/SSE if that were so.
Quoting 610. cornchucker:

Nothing seems to be legit about this blog anymore given all of the bickering, not to mention that there is virtually nothing tropical in nature about this storm and never has been and naming it it and saying it is the earliest storm, la di da, is simply intellectually dishonest.
Hey. You obviously weren't here when there was REAL bickering on this blog. Not to mention you falsely attribute the tropical or non-tropical nature of the storm along with its naming to this blog. Since it IS named, it is simply a matter of RECORD that it is the earliest storm. The la di da is optional.

Finally, given that the storm originated from a TROPICAL gyre enhanced by a TROPICAL wave, formed in the TROPICS, transporting TROPICAL moisture, and meets - broadly - the criteria for a TROPICAL cyclone, I'd say you are being disingenuous to say there is nothing TROPICAL about its nature.

Have a good night.
seems the house needs some tiding up
Quoting 611. bluenosedave:

Hey, all. Not to disrupt the conversation while a TS is impacting Florida, but this is the first time I've been able to post a comment for about a year. Something to do with my desktop. In any case, hunker down from the wrath of Colin.
DAVE!!!! Well, I hope the posting keeps working .... lol ...
Quoting 602. BuckyBeaver:

wilsonbiggs went poof. 24 hour ban?

Pat - how's the weather in the Big Easy, brother? ^-^
forever and ever
Started to say [before I got distracted] re this line:

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

At that rate, Colin will be dipping toes in the ATL by dawn ...
Quoting 610. cornchucker:

Nothing seems to be legit about this blog anymore given all of the bickering, not to mention that there is virtually nothing tropical in nature about this storm and never has been and naming it it and saying it is the earliest storm, la di da, is simply intellectually dishonest.


Intellectually dishonest?

Go to bed, please.
Quoting 617. BahaHurican:

Hey. You obviously weren't here when there was REAL bickering on this blog. Not to mention you falsely attribute the tropical or non-tropical nature of the storm along with its naming to this blog. Since it IS named, it is simply a matter of RECORD that it is the earliest storm. The la di da is optional.

Finally, given that the storm originated from a TROPICAL gyre enhanced by a TROPICAL wave, formed in the TROPICS, transporting TROPICAL moisture, and meets - broadly - the criteria for a TROPICAL cyclone, I'd say you are being disingenuous to say there is nothing TROPICAL about its nature.

Have a good night.


It was so TROPICAL in fact, that in Cocoa Beach, it was 88 degrees today, with a dewpoint of 80. If that doesn't say tropical, I don't know what does.
Quoting 620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

forever and ever
"Come and play with us Danny"
Quoting 611. bluenosedave:

Hey, all. Not to disrupt the conversation while a TS is impacting Florida, but this is the first time I've been able to post a comment for about a year. Something to do with my desktop. In any case, hunker down from the wrath of Colin.

Nice to have you back!
Quoting 613. Dakster:

Hope no major damage and no injuries with this storm. Just a wake up call to be prepared in case a stronger storm threatens.

In other news... hard to believe we lost another celebrity today.... Kimbo Slice passed away.


dropping like flies dak
Tampa is about to get another band, strong winds possible.

Quoting 569. Adam2001:

Check out my new blog post! I have an idea that could be great!


Looked at it.

Not to discourage you, but I am not interested in what you proposed - sounds too much like work. Not sure many on here would be. Most people want to pop on, see what is happening, throw in their two cents, and say hello to others they have come to know via the forum over the years. We each get to throw our hat in the ring, with no harm or fouls committed (well, most of the time). Some opinions are valued more than others, everyone here has been incorrect about something (or several things) over the years.

The comments section (as messy as it is) allows us to postulate, prognosticate, learn, bicker, and discuss what is happening with a storm or the topic du jour. And find the most recent information (or links to it).

If you truly are interested in learning, there are plenty of people that'll provide you with good information,and links to websites and educational sites that will help you. Many of those that know what they are doing (amateurs and professionals) will take the time to explain things, if asked respectfully.

If you take the time and learn what to look for, how to interpret the charts and diagrams, then feel free to make your prognostications and blog about it. Many others here have done, and do, the same.

We highly value and respect the information and analyses Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen provide in their posts. There are many members that comment whom are widely respected for their knowledge and analyses.

Any forecast in the comments section should be taken with a grain of salt. That is not the purpose of the blog. For actual forecasts, we consult the experts at the NHC and NWS. As much as we like to poke them with sticks.


Well I look at it this way.
Colin goes back in the list
of "I'll Be Back"....

Now on to "Danielle" will she be as
Bad as the last Danielle that came to
visit us.... Probably Not This Year

Taco :o)
Quoting 613. Dakster:

Hope no major damage and no injuries with this storm. Just a wake up call to be prepared in case a stronger storm threatens.

In other news... hard to believe we lost another celebrity today.... Kimbo Slice passed away.


Despite the fact he is a Bahamian, I had to go look him up on Utube ... so two boxers in a week ....

Hmmm.... most Bahamian Fergusons originate from Acklins .... might be a cousin.

Just did my latest blog post on Colin and the rest of the Atlantic tropics...discuss how a surface trough may develop behind Colin in the Gulf of Mexico that might need a little watchin'

Other than that..looks like things are going to quiet down for a bit after Colin gets out of the way.
Quoting 623. ecflweatherfan:



It was so TROPICAL in fact, that in Cocoa Beach, it was 88 degrees today, with a dewpoint of 80. If that doesn't say tropical, I don't know what does.
Was still 86 here at 10 pm, all due to southeasterly flow induced by Colin. I tellya ... I'm not looking forward to August humidity one bit ....
lol the epac STILL doesn't produce a storm.
Quoting 619. BahaHurican:

DAVE!!!! Well, I hope the posting keeps working .... lol ...
Thanks for the warm welcome back, Baha. I continue to be the watcher on the northeast front when those storms come along.
Quoting 632. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my latest blog post on Colin and the rest of the Atlantic tropics...discuss how a surface trough may develop behind Colin in the Gulf of Mexico that might need a little watchin'

Other than that..looks like things are going to quiet down for a bit after Colin gets out of the way.
I'm still looking to see if TD1E can send enough energy to Campeche to jumpstart Danielle ... the earliest 4th storm, AND a rare W - E crossover ....
Quoting 630. Tazmanian:



Are you JFV

Will the real JFV please stand up
Quoting 634. KoritheMan:

lol the epac STILL doesn't produce a storm.
I didn't see u around last night ....
Quoting 633. BahaHurican:

Was still 86 here at 10 pm, all due to southeasterly flow induced by Colin. I tellya ... I'm not looking forward to August humidity one bit ....


Was thinking the same earlier. An 80 degree dewpoint in central Florida is almost unheard of. I have seen 77-78 many occasions (mostly early mornings during July/August). But 72-75 is typical for summer time. So 80 is stifling.
Quoting 635. bluenosedave:

Thanks for the warm welcome back, Baha. I continue to be the watcher on the northeast front when those storms come along.
The way things are shaping up, you guys might see some action up your way later in the season ....
Looks like center, such as it is, may have made landfall in southern Taylor county.

The local newpaper (Treasure Coast, FL) had an article this AM about TS Colin (might be paywalled). Standard fare but one paragraph in particular caught my eye. Talking about how quickly Bonnie and Colin developed:

Because of what happened, hurricane center staff are talking among themselves about experimenting with issuing warnings for formative weather systems that have a potential for developing into storms, Feltgen said.

I think it's always good to keep people informed but that could lead to complacency if many of these new warnings turn out to be false alarms. Presumably this would only be done for tropical flareups in close proximity to the US. Has anyone else heard about these experimental warnings? It's the first time I've read or heard anything about it.
Quoting 624. washingtonian115:

"Come and play with us Danny"


Missed all the drama while at work :O

In regards to Colin, I don't think I have EVER been so uninterested in an actual landfall. I was watching and reading everyone's comments dealing with the bands that were coming in, but had no interest in actual landfall, just weird. I thought Bonnie was more interesting by far.

Here in the UK, been hot and muggy. On or near to 90' in the N/W, just awful, especially as been moving house! I came home from work and still 60', 4am, and noticed my coconut oil, having ALWAYS been solid, was actually oil LOL inside felt SO hot, and my daughter won't open the windows when I'm out, cause she hates flies or moths (don't blame her, but rather what little air there is than worry about them!). I told her, when I'm done with uni, maybe we'll move to Scotland or Norway :P I know Russia might give land away in Siberia, but too many reasons to not do that LOL

Am glad Colin was mostly a bust though. Much as I like to follow the tropics, I don't like to follow a big, strong storm that makes landfall...unless it is an unpopulated area (which doesn't happen), or only populated by people visiting, measuring its intensity...could happen if a place has been evacuated, but recorders have come in!

And aside from the shenanigans that arose, was really nice to see the blog alight. Even though, it did slow down A LOT, when it was obvious Colin really wasn't going to do much, as the models showed. But was nice to come and read the excitement and look at all the images in between unpacking
Quoting 633. BahaHurican:

Was still 86 here at 10 pm, all due to southeasterly flow induced by Colin. I tellya ... I'm not looking forward to August humidity one bit ....


It wasn't much different in the UK today D: Nightime temps not as bad though, but for here, are horrible LOL
Also, I'm getting the impression this season may be more active than anticipated by any agency. We're already getting tropical waves with unusually deep convection for June; there was one tropical wave in particular that was generating a lot of convection east of the Lesser Antilles. Even assuming that some of that was caused by interaction with the TUTT, that's still very impressive, and there is a strong correlation between deep tropical activity in the early season leading to a more active season later on. Masters himself said it. See his entry for Bertha's formation in 2008.
Quoting 637. gator23:


Will the real JFV please stand up


I came clean already - earlier today. ;)
Quoting 634. KoritheMan:

lol the epac STILL doesn't produce a storm.


I know right? For the last few years, if you see an invest, got so used to it exploding to a major in short time. But now...
Quoting 642. UrcaDeLima:

The local newpaper (Treasure Coast, FL) had an article this AM about TS Colin (might be paywalled). Standard fare but one paragraph in particular caught my eye. Talking about how quickly Bonnie and Colin developed:
Because of what happened, hurricane center staff are talking among themselves about experimenting with issuing warnings for formative weather systems that have a potential for developing into storms, Feltgen said.

I think it's always good to keep people informed but that could lead to complacency if it turns out that many of these new warnings turn out to be false alarms. Presumably this would only be done for tropical flareups in close proximity to the US. Has anyone else heard about these experimental warnings? It's the first time I've read or heard anything about it.
Read something about a tweet from someone at NHC prior to Colin saying maybe in 2017 they would have some kind of "pre-formation warning" for systems like Colin.
Quoting 396. Michfan:

Definitely smells like a tropical system outside. Those that have been through one should know what i am talking about. It's hard for me to describe. Winds have died down in E. Orlando and it seems the storms have lost a bit of a punch.


I actually got to smell that a year and a half ago - here in Fallon, NV, which was funny also because nobody knew what I was talking about. One storm system came out of the Pacific, actually made it here over the sierras, smell intact.

I remember that smell from living back east and down the shore.
Quoting 644. mitthbevnuruodo:



It wasn't much different in the UK today D: Nightime temps not as bad though, but for here, are horrible LOL
Whole ATL seems super moist these last few weeks .... not quite sure what that means for the rest of the summer, but certainly IMO noteworthy....
Quoting 642. UrcaDeLima:

The local newpaper (Treasure Coast, FL) had an article this AM about TS Colin (might be paywalled). Standard fare but one paragraph in particular caught my eye. Talking about how quickly Bonnie and Colin developed:

Because of what happened, hurricane center staff are talking among themselves about experimenting with issuing warnings for formative weather systems that have a potential for developing into storms, Feltgen said.

I think it's always good to keep people informed but that could lead to complacency if many of these new warnings turn out to be false alarms. Presumably this would only be done for tropical flareups in close proximity to the US. Has anyone else heard about these experimental warnings? It's the first time I've read or heard anything about it.


Not paywalled. from the article . . .

Because of what happened, hurricane center staff are talking among themselves about experimenting with issuing warnings for formative weather systems that have a potential for developing into storms, Feltgen said.

Currently, the hurricane center begins reporting on systems when they become tropical depressions. That is when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms and circulating winds up to 39 mph. As winds increase, the systems become a tropical storm, then a hurricane.

Advance warnings are more critical during the start of the hurricane season, in June and July, because storms typically develop close by, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, he said.

After July and as the Atlantic Ocean warms, formation of storms shifts toward Africa, especially during August. That gives forecasters a much longer time for tracking a system and issuing warnings.


I think what they mean is issuing some sort of statement - instead of having to wait for an actual tropical depression to form. I would imagine that it would be a "special advisory" type of thing that describes that a storm could potentially form, strengthen, and impact an area within 24 hours.

it does make sense in some aspects, as normal people (not us) usually don't know anything until some time after a storm has been named.
Quoting 645. KoritheMan:

Also, I'm getting the impression this season may be more active than anticipated by any agency. We're already getting tropical waves with unusually deep convection for June; there was one tropical wave in particular that was generating a lot of convection east of the Lesser Antilles. Even assuming that some of that was caused by interaction with the TUTT, that's still very impressive, and there is a strong correlation between deep tropical activity in the early season leading to a more active season later on. Masters himself said it. See his entry for Bertha's formation in 2008.
Island pple were looking at that yesterday .... even at 55W it was a lot bigger than one would expect at this time of year, and apparently they got quite a bit of precip up and down the Lesser Antilles. It's going to be very interesting indeed to see how this super moist atmosphere responds to what is shaping up to be typical la nina conditions..... in ASO.
Well, off to bed. Colin has produced 0.55" here at my abode. Max winds have generally been in the 20 mph range, perhaps gusts to about 35 in the first band. Looks like Colin has an elongated circulation on nighttime VIS. Still a little more rain on the way tonight, perhaps a slight uptick in winds, but nothing chaotic.
Mr Colin refuses to go without a fight. High temp today was 77, it is now 79 and pouring with fierce winds. It may knock over another chair.
Quoting 651. daddyjames:



Not paywalled. from the article . . .

Because of what happened, hurricane center staff are talking among themselves about experimenting with issuing warnings for formative weather systems that have a potential for developing into storms, Feltgen said.

Currently, the hurricane center begins reporting on systems when they become tropical depressions. That is when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms and circulating winds up to 39 mph. As winds increase, the systems become a tropical storm, then a hurricane.

Advance warnings are more critical during the start of the hurricane season, in June and July, because storms typically develop close by, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, he said.

After July and as the Atlantic Ocean warms, formation of storms shifts toward Africa, especially during August. That gives forecasters a much longer time for tracking a system and issuing warnings.


I think what they mean is issuing some sort of statement - instead of having to wait for an actual tropical depression to form. I would imagine that it would be a "special advisory" type of thing that describes that a storm could potentially form, strengthen, and impact an area within 24 hours.

it does make sense in some aspects, as normal people (not us) usually don't know anything until some time after a storm has been named.
Apparently they've been throwing this idea around for a while.... to the point where they may be doing some "experimental" stuff with it next year, according to NHC head dude tweet posted in the blog on either Sat or Sun. Some kind of "Special Advisory" that directs the relevant members of the public where formation is expected and possible areas to be impacted could work.... sort of like a TCFA for the world ...
Quoting 654. bucyouup68:

Mr Colin refuses to go without a fight. High temp today was 77, it is now 79 and pouring with fierce winds. It may knock over another chair.
Be careful.... don't want to have to go out there and risk injury to life and limb in order to rescue that perilously perched plastic ....
We are watching another minimal TS confirm that tropical weather is no real threat. This is not good for Florida. This is confirming a myth. We shall see this pay in lives later in season. Mark that.
One would assume the CoC is under the circular blob .... would one be wrong to do so????

Quoting 638. BahaHurican:

I didn't see u around last night ....


I kind of avoided the blog the last few days because I figured I'd see some less educated people calling for dissipation prior to it reaching Florida because of the exposed and diffuse coc. I kinda can only beat a dead horse so many times, you know. :P
Quoting 657. DeepSeaRising:

We are watching another minimal TS confirm that tropical weather is no real threat. This is not good for Florida. This is confirming a myth. We shall see this pay in lives later in season. Mark that.
I'm noting this track for later .... may have some other storms travel this road this year ....

especially if we get a ridge along the N side of the Antilles as we sometimes do...
Quoting 659. KoritheMan:



I kind of avoided the blog the last few days because I figured I'd see some less educated people calling for dissipation prior to it reaching Florida because of the exposed and diffuse coc. I kinda can only beat a dead horse so many times, you know. :P
But we had so much fun while beating it!

LOL ...

Best part of the weekend was seeing bunches of old login names pop up in the blog ... was like old home week in the best way ....
Quoting 634. KoritheMan:

lol the epac STILL doesn't produce a storm.


TD 1E is that not a storm?
Quiet in Port St. Lucie. One big short-lived rainstorm with gusts of wind late this afternoon, then nothing else. Thought we would rock and roll tonight but radar looks pretty clear. Planned for the worst, appears we got the best. Kinda disappointed and relieved at the same time! You all still in the thick of it, please stay safe and sound. Now watching that blob in EPAC go see if it crosses over to the GoMex like some of the models want it to do. Kudos to Gro, Baha, Pat and all others who have kept us well informed. Starting this early might be an indication that it will be a very busy season for a change.
AB high trapping the Caribbean and Gulf, next sixty days will have 4/5 storms in basin. We are looking at an historic start to season. AGW in full affect. No such things as norms any more. Be ready Florida.
Here's a real question mark:


Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Be nice if we could outpace 2012 for earliest fourth storm, but somehow I'm getting that impression the post 01E surface trough isn't going to become Danielle. Models had a bonafide cyclone to initialize today and they're still not showing any development.
Here's my forecast.................we are in times never seen before and never to be seen again......................we are now in a new norm. Extremes are the new norm. This season will outperform the forecasts. SSTS will change like we've not seen before. Remember MDR last year? Climate is ruling the roost, and we shall see birth to systems not seen before. Feeling two Cat 4/5 in basin, land falling hurricanes. Miami will be hit and a million dollar times so many will happen. We have done this, we will suffer so. The West should set an example, instead we set the moral failing for the world. We will answer to that.
Quoting 655. BahaHurican:

Apparently they've been throwing this idea around for a while.... to the point where they may be doing some "experimental" stuff with it next year, according to NHC head dude tweet posted in the blog on either Sat or Sun. Some kind of "Special Advisory" that directs the relevant members of the public where formation is expected and possible areas to be impacted could work.... sort of like a TCFA for the world ...


And with all the available platforms (twitter, etc.) it could be set up somewhat easily. Here in OK, we have systems in place (if you choose to receive it) so a text message is sent to your phone once a tornado watch or warning has been issued. I think something like that would be useful in those situations where a storm cold spin up and impact an area within the standard watch/warning times. I could see it as being the TWO where there is a "probability" that the event could happen. There will always be critics, but most people in the areas impacted would greatly appreciate it.
plus, viewing habits are changing rapidly - netflix, etc. - and many people I know rarely watch the news anymore, especially younger demographics.
Quoting 651. daddyjames:

Not paywalled.
Good to know, thanks. The paper is on its 3rd owner in 2 years and their access restrictions are constantly changing.

Quoting 651. daddyjames:

it does make sense in some aspects, as normal people (not us) usually don't know anything until some time after a storm has been named.
I tend to agree, and also with BahaHurrican's take on it as well.
Steady rain for about three hours now sometimes very heavy. Third round of thunder/lightening just west of St. Augustine. The lightening wih this storm is different from typical summer thunderstorm lightening. It explodes kind of like a shotgun blast whereas summer thunderstorm lightening makes a loud crack first then explodes...useless information but I kinda found it interesting.