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Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2985. SLU:
The center of Chantal seems to have reformed further north near the deep convection.

NHC position: 13.3°N 58.4°W

Reformed center: 13.7°N 58.7°W

nah its around 13.4°N 59.0°W
the circle cone 3 days ago had all of florida in it at day 7 then yesterday just 3/4th of florida and now today only the east half of florida is in the cone so i believe this east shift will continue like it always does with these storms and by thursday you wont even see florida in the picture anymore
3003. SLU
Quoting 2987. jeffreeysweetypie:
so what does that mean a completly new and different track?

Not really. It will remain pretty much along the same track.
3004. SLU
Quoting 3001. wunderkidcayman:

nah its around 13.4°N 59.0°W


Ok. it's still very broad so the center may jump around a bit today.
The bigger picture.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 AM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 12 2013 - 12Z TUE JUL 16 2013

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FROM AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN THAT TRANSITIONS TO NEARLY CONUS-WIDE RIDGING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD /PER NHC/ BUT THEN ITS FATE BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN... DEPENDENT UPON ITS ORGANIZATION AND THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THAT PUSHES AN INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE WASHING IT OUT AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF CHANTAL TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE WAVERED ON THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF
THE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BUT A BLEND AMONG THEM AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDED A
GOOD BASE TO THE FORECAST... CONSISTENT WITH THE BETTER CLUSTERING
OF SOLUTIONS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT ENSEMBLE TRENDS /A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE ENERGY RETROGRADING IN THE EAST/. SHOULD CHANTAL SURVIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY TURN IT WESTWARD AS
HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE EASTERLY FLOW GUIDES IT
TOWARDS/INTO FLORIDA. AS OF NOW... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A THREAT
TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN-TUE/D5-7. PLEASE SEE THE NHC FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION ON CHANTAL.


Lots of new thunderstorms blossoming around the supposed new center, as we begin to say good morning to Chantal.

3007. Dakster
Quoting 3002. jeffreeysweetypie:
the circle cone 3 days ago had all of florida in it at day 7 then yesterday just 3/4th of florida and now today only the east half of florida is in the cone so i believe this east shift will continue like it always does with these storms and by thursday you wont even see florida in the picture anymore


Possible, but not the NHC path is to the EAST of the majority of the models. So who knows.

morning
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS.

ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.3N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.2N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Should be interesting to watch as Chantal waxes and wanes over the coming days. Not crazy over the 50 KT off my coast in 120 hours. Also still reading about the left turn causes some consternation but will see how it all plays out.
3013. LargoFl
Good Morning folks..the coffee is hot enjoy!..have a great day............................................... ..448 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A COUPLE OF AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE
PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA

Morning Chicklit -

Looking at the ULL next to us yesterday, it seemed to me our rain chances for today should've been higher than the NWS's or WU's 30%. Today I see NWS is up to 50% so, probably won't rain at all.
From the Tropical Tidbits page (Levi) -

Quoting 3004. SLU:


Ok. it's still very broad so the center may jump around a bit today.

lol yeah it looks to be many micro vortexes within one broad vortex
Morning, Largo...
The CATL wave looks happy with itself this morning.


Link WV Loop
Chantal may be getting ready to tap into moister environment. And is still below 15 approaching 60.
Quoting 3009. mikatnight:


Had completely missed that tidbit. Thanks Mike. :)
i just watched our local mets here in florida on channel 3 and 6 and both said they dont feel chantal will come into florida they think it will stay far off the east florida coast and kinda hoook away as a weak low
3021. barbamz

Short morning hello with the colourful waves; Chantal keeps her turning momentum. Have a good day everybody!
Quoting 3015. mikatnight:
From the Tropical Tidbits page (Levi) -

as your graph shows by sunday chantal is already to north florida and not to strong i still believe florida wont get anything
Link WV Loop Chantal

Chantal looks a bit smashed this morning lol
i think at the 8am and 11am advisory we will see even more east of florida track
3025. MahFL
My local mets just said Chantal will turn left and cross FL and head into the Gulf.
Coming in low and weak this run. loses it after this with Dorian cranking along.

Quoting 3019. AtHomeInTX:


Had completely missed that tidbit. Thanks Mike. :)


Your welcome! Levi definately knows his stuff.

Off to walk Dexter, back after a while with today's GM pic...
3024. jeffreeysweetypie10:12 AM GMT on July 09, 2013
i think at the 8am and 11am advisory we will see even more east of florida track

3025. MahFL10:13 AM GMT on July 09, 2013
My local mets just said Chantal will turn left and cross FL and head into the Gulf.


okay...anyway I actually have a new job!
Off to be fingerprinted.
Have a great morning folks.


July Daily Update - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Section Animation

07/01/2013 - 07/08/2013

Extremely hard and rare for a storm comming up from the bahamas to make a drastic left turn into florida..... once they start to bend they usually follow a track around the high
CHANTAL is very pathetic :( Looks like Ernesto of last year!
Quoting 3031. CaribBoy:
CHANTAL is very pathetic :( Looks like Ernesto of last year!
i think this will be another year of pathetic storms like last year
Barbados Radar showing the center pretty well..13.8 59.2

Link

3034. Grothar
remember my 3024 post at 8am and 11 am ............ you will see a diiferent track keeping chantal away from florida
Quoting 3032. jeffreeysweetypie:
i think this will be another year of pathetic storms like last year


Fast forward motion and sinking air, the past two seasons. I blame the jet stream.
3037. barbamz
Wow, look at Soulik!



This is Interesting. Out of NWS MOBILE this morn.


LONG TERM
THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE END OF THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS NOW BUILDS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TURN CHANTAL SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER
RIDGE AND KEEPS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WELL EAST OF THE REGION.

DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS IT APPEARS THE TROPICS ARE
STARTING TO GET ACTIVE.M (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE YET AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SENDS A
SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
WASH OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
REGION CUTS OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP DUE TO THE WET PATTERN...CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH LOWS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL.
3039. JLPR2
Looks like 13.8N, 59.4W

Barbados Radar

And it's passing to the North of Barbados, checked the WU page for the island and no west winds have been reported, it's a good bet that Chantal doesn't have a closed LLC.
3040. Grothar
Hey Doug,

If I was still chasing, I would be able to enjoy my week in Pensacola!
Update from Barbados, The eye has not passed as yet and we feared very well with hardly any rainfall just drizzles surprisingly. We are overcast at the moment but no wind, rain, thunder or lightening. We are glad but disappointed at the same time. Chantel looks frayed this morning, should start to pick up momentum and strength soon
Quoting 2011. TylerStanfield:
Can somebody help me? I've lost everything, my blogs, my bio, and my comments. :(
I hope you reported this to the powers that be already. The longer you wait, the harder it is for them to trace what happened.

Quoting 2056. Thrawst:


MAHAHA Chantal doesn't like the Northwest Bahamas ;)
Not funny.. way not funny....

Have you put up your shutters yet???

Good morning all...

Woke up this morning to light rain showers, overcast skies, and muted thunder. Feels like April out there.
Is that the great OZ on the blog?????
Quoting 3041. CycloneOz:
Hey Doug,

If I was still chasing, I would be able to enjoy my week in Pensacola!



Move back.
Quoting 3045. BahaHurican:
Is that the great OZ on the blog?????


It is.
Typhoon Soulik in true colour.




Imagine this blog if this was Chantal!!!!
Boom!!!!!
LOL
3049. MahFL
Quoting 3030. jeffreeysweetypie:
Extremely hard and rare for a storm comming up from the bahamas to make a drastic left turn into florida..... once they start to bend they usually follow a track around the high


It does happen though, from time to time. Lets hope they don't call it Super Storm Chantal......
Quoting 3012. Chicklit:
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS.

ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.3N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.2N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Should be interesting to watch as Chantal waxes and wanes over the coming days. Not crazy over the 50 KT off my coast in 120 hours. Also still reading about the left turn causes some consternation but will see how it all plays out.
Morning Chick... I'm not liking this direct-to-my-doorstep track either. Hopefully (1) this remains a minimal storm all the way (2) it's the strongest storm that passes near / over either of us.

Good morning. Look at that core structure on Soulik. That's just awesome:





Looks like Chantal is not doing well from reading back on the blog. The 6z GFS dropped the idea of redevelopment in the Bahamas or GOM.
3052. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting 3045. BahaHurican:
Is that the great OZ on the blog?????


Morning Baha. How ya been?

It is raining this morning in Ecuador. I love living under the ITCZ. It's wonderfully ironic.
Quoting 3046. PensacolaDoug:



Move back.


Not a chance. My money goes far here! :)

Plus, the women are beautiful and bronzed.
Quoting 3043. BahaHurican:
I hope you reported this to the powers that be already. The longer you wait, the harder it is for them to trace what happened.

Not funny.. way not funny....

Have you put up your shutters yet???



I didn't even see Tyler's comment. But I reported the same thing happened to me earlier. Thanks to whitewabbit's infinite patience explaining to me how to do that. :) Good Morning Baha.
Quoting 3030. jeffreeysweetypie:
Extremely hard and rare for a storm comming up from the bahamas to make a drastic left turn into florida..... once they start to bend they usually follow a track around the high
That's really not so true... as recently as Jeanne a storm was headed north but looped back and hit FL. The transition may not be as abrupt as the models show, but there are numerous examples in the record.
3058. Grothar

Quoting CycloneOz:
Hey Doug,

If I was still chasing, I would be able to enjoy my week in Pensacola!

OZ,,,, How are ya mate. I thought you um.... pushing up daisies. Opps, my bad.
winds back up to 60 mph at the end.
Quoting 3054. CycloneOz:


Not a chance. My money goes far here! :)

Plus, the women are beautiful and bronzed.



Three Chineese cheers!


Phooey! Phooey! Phooey!
Quoting 3037. barbamz:
Wow, look at Soulik!

This was textbook formation... it was looking good yesterday, and pulling together much faster than Chantal...
honestly i cant ever remember a storm comming up from puerto rico then suddenly take a quick turn into florida so with that chantal wont hit florida with thism drastic quick left turn as they say
3064. MahFL
Convection firing.



CoC is open on the south side obviously, but there are a few light showers trying to form there.

This storm is in really bad shape, and probably won't change for another 8 to 12 hours. It needs to get out of the dry air in order to intensify any.
3066. Grothar
Quoting 3044. BahaHurican:
Good morning all...

Woke up this morning to light rain showers, overcast skies, and muted thunder. Feels like April out there.


Baha,sorry I said Chantal was going through the Bahamas the other day. Nothing personal
Quoting 3053. CycloneOz:


Morning Baha. How ya been?

It is raining this morning in Ecuador. I love living under the ITCZ. It's wonderfully ironic.
LOL... all of the rain... none of the excitement... It's good to see you in the blog, man...
Quoting 3059. AussieStorm:

OZ,,,, How are ya mate. I thought you um.... pushing up daisies. Opps, my bad.


Yo Aussie! How ya been? Good seeing you this AM in the western hemisphere.

The growing season here in Ecuador is year round...so I am always pushing up daisies up in this part of the world. :)
Quoting 3066. Grothar:


Baha,sorry I said Chantal was going through the Bahamas the other day. Nothing personal
I am not even going to thaw the fish I'm going to smack you with before I do it... and I'm going to wait until you are fully recovered so those nurses won't take a hit out on me....
Quoting 3068. BahaHurican:
LOL... all of the rain... none of the excitement... It's good to see you in the blog, man...


Ain't that the truth. The cloud formations are breath taking. You would think that the hammer is going to come down.

Instead...a gentle rain falls with no wind.

Amazing weather! :)
Quoting 3066. Grothar:


Baha,sorry I said Chantal was going through the Bahamas the other day. Nothing personal
BTW, I'm thinking about visiting FLL next week... should I bring you some cerasee and some life leaf? They taste like [ahem] but are supposed to be good for you... build up your blood... and other things...
3074. Gearsts
CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS

Date and Time Updated: TUESDAY 9th JULY 2013 AT 6 AM

Pressure: 1011.6 mb

Temperature: 24.2 °C

Apparent Temperature: N/A °C

Relative Humidity: 100 %

Wind Direction: E

Wind Speed: 8 KM/H

Visibility: 12 KM

Present Weather: OVERCAST/ SHOWERS

Cloud Cover:

Low: 7 /8 Medium: / /8 High: / /8
That's the remnants of Dorian on the east coast. Don't know what's in the north Atlantic. But the other one seems to be the E storm. I don't even know what that is. Wild run.

Quoting 3072. CycloneOz:


Ain't that the truth. The cloud formations are breath taking. You would think that the hammer is going to come down.

Instead...a gentle rain falls with no wind.

Amazing weather! :)
Pictures... pics, man! Sounds like a photographers heaven. I've also heard you still get seasons... only they arranged by altitude, not by month... lol
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo Aussie! How ya been? Good seeing you this AM in the western hemisphere.

The growing season here in Ecuador is year round...so I am always pushing up daisies up in this part of the world. :)


Did you get chased out of the States mate?
Ecuador, geez. Last year you were in NOLA for Isaac and this year your in Ecuador. Where to next year.
Quoting 3075. AtHomeInTX:
That's the remnants of Dorian on the east coast. Don't know what's in the north Atlantic. But the other one seems to be the E storm. I don't even know what that is. Wild run.

Hello At home and good morning everyone.Omg this run is exciting it has a tc north of Honduras.
3079. SLU
Gusts to 54mph just reported from St. Lucia.
Quoting 3076. BahaHurican:
Pictures... pics, man! Sounds like a photographers heaven. I've also heard you still get seasons... only they arranged by altitude, not by month... lol


Yes, I should be taking more pictures. And I will over time.

Right now, I am busy learning Spanish. I am only at a 2nd grade level. It is surprisingly difficult to learn.

The seasons here are measured in less than 5 degrees difference. It is like always living in a Springtime environment. In the AM...it is around 50 degrees, warming to around 70 around noon.

I live at 8,600 feet (2,900 meters) in the Andes Mountains.
3081. Gearsts
Shear
3082. Grothar
Quoting 3073. BahaHurican:
BTW, I'm thinking about visiting FLL next week... should I bring you some cerasee and some life leaf? They taste like [ahem] but are supposed to be good for you... build up your blood... and other things...


Sure your friend still live by the Galleria mall?
Morning Baha,

Light rain and thunder in Briland this morning...looks like it will be pouring soon...sky is very dark looking towards Lutra
bottom line is florida wont get anything
Quoting 3078. allancalderini:
Hello At home and good morning everyone.Omg this run is exciting it has a tc north of Honduras.


Morning Allan. Not sure where that storm came from but it looked like another wave moving NW through the Caribbean that didn't spin up until then. If the GFS is any indication it could get very busy.
Recon left yet?
3088. Grothar
Quoting 3080. CycloneOz:


Yes, I should be taking more pictures. And I will over time.

Right now, I am busy learning Spanish. I am only at a 2nd grade level. It is surprisingly difficult to learn.

The seasons here are measured in less than 5 degrees difference. It is like always living in a Springtime environment. In the AM...it is around 50 degrees, warming to around 70 around noon.

I live at 8,600 feet (2,900 meters) in the Andes Mountains.


Spanish is really very easy. The trick in learning a language is not to translate from English, but think in the language you are learning. The first 4 or 5 languages are usually the hardest.
Quoting 3086. AtHomeInTX:


Morning Allan. Not sure where that storm came from but it looked like another wave moving NW through the Caribbean that didn't spin up until then. If the GFS is any indication it could get very busy.
Yeah I see do you have the link Athom I would really appreciate it.
Quoting 3077. AussieStorm:


Did you get chased out of the States mate?
Ecuador, geez. Last year you were in NOLA for Isaac and this year your in Ecuador. Where to next year.


OMG...Isaac and the St. Charles County Mounties. Remember me almost going to jail because I was live streaming the landfall in Boutee?

There are stories about cops out of control all over America.

As far as being "chased out," I do not say the following lightly, given my propensity for diving head-first into dangerous situations:

I evacuated the United States, mate.
Quoting 3090. allancalderini:
Yeah I see do you have the link Athom I would really appreciate it.


sure Link
Quoting 3088. Grothar:


Spanish is really very easy. The trick in learning a language is not to translate from English, but think in the language you are learning. The first 4 or 5 languages are usually the hardest.


I am trying very hard to turn the English off in my head, but I have had and made straight "A's" in advanced English courses.

I am at a 2nd grade level in Spanish...and it is almost time for me to get to work learning more.
3095. emguy
Quoting 3081. Gearsts:
Shear


Agree to disagree...Chantal had a thunderstorm die off earlier...likely due to dry air coupled with rapid forward speed. As far as shear goes, it may have appeared to be that way, but notice there is no blow off to the cloud tops of the current thunderstorms. It's not a shear issue with her, and she survived the bad stuff.
Quoting 3092. AtHomeInTX:


sure Link
Thanks.
Quoting 3095. emguy:


Agree to disagree...Chantal had a thunderstorm die off earlier...likely due to dry air coupled with rapid forward speed. As far as shear goes, it may have appeared to be that way, but notice there is no blow off to the cloud tops of the current thunderstorms. It's not a shear issue with her, and she survived the bad stuff.
Agreed.
Sorry Allan. That was just to one run. Here's the main link to pick which model, run, etc Link
3102. SLU
Winds in Barbados - WSW @ 10mph. Pressure dropped to 1011.

Closed low confirmed.
Quoting 3100. AtHomeInTX:
Sorry Allan. That was just to one run. Here's the main link to pick which model, run, etc Link
Haha don`t worry :)I just loop them all.
ecuador not enough storms no thanks slu thats about right 11 28=40mph
3105. msphar
Barbados looks to be getting wet
Quoting 3080. CycloneOz:


Yes, I should be taking more pictures. And I will over time.

Right now, I am busy learning Spanish. I am only at a 2nd grade level. It is surprisingly difficult to learn.

The seasons here are measured in less than 5 degrees difference. It is like always living in a Springtime environment. In the AM...it is around 50 degrees, warming to around 70 around noon.

I live at 8,600 feet (2,900 meters) in the Andes Mountains.


That sounds like the perfect weather. I may just have to retire there.

I wonder if the 54 mph gust in St. Lucia is from a stray rain band from Chantal as the storm is still a ways away from the island (and not too strong anyhow)?
Quoting CycloneOz:


OMG...Isaac and the St. Charles County Mounties. Remember me almost going to jail because I was live streaming the landfall in Boutee?

There are stories about cops out of control all over America.

As far as being "chased out," I do not say the following lightly, given my propensity for diving head-first into dangerous situations:

I evacuated the United States, mate.


Well, I'm glad your still around and oh yeah, i remember you almost getting put in the can. Good times mate. Stay safe down there.
Quoting 3104. islander101010:
ecuador not enough storms no thanks


Yes...the most severe weather here is torrential rain that can flood the rivers and take out villages downstream.

The volcanoes are pretty cool.

But I had a personal choice to make. I had to choose between living in hurricane alley or in a place where I could ask for and be granted asylum.
any wind shear for the tropical storm
3114. gator23
Happens all the time.

See links for facts:
Link

Link


Quoting 3063. jeffreeysweetypie:
honestly i cant ever remember a storm comming up from puerto rico then suddenly take a quick turn into florida so with that chantal wont hit florida with thism drastic quick left turn as they say
Convection firing.
a new burst of convection near centre of Chantal it is about 160 mls east of st lucia and about 70 mls ne of barbados
Intensity update at 8 am EST?
3118. gator23
I wonder how many WU members will still say its going to Texas today?
Will she or won't she survive Hispaniola? That is the big question for the USA.
Quoting 3118. gator23:
I wonder how many WU members will still say its going to Texas today?


We don't know where it's going. How far west it goes depends entirely on how much westward-building ridging we get in the Bahamas.
3121. gator23
Looks like she is firing convection and kicking out her dry air. Could she be getting stronger?
Quoting 3115. SFLWeatherman:
Convection firing.
last night my ruler said butterfly island its going to be close
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco

* WATCHING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL

WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. NHC IS FORECASTING
CHANTAL TO TURN NW-N AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA, AS A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS. THIS WOULD TAKE CHANTAL TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THINGS CAN CHANGE SO THIS WILL OF
COURSE CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WHAT
THE LATEST GFS 09.00Z RUN SHOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT BUILDS A RIDGE
BACK IN NORTH OF CHANTAL SUN-TUE, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE WITH EVEN A SLIGHT BEND SW AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN, BUT THIS JUST SHOWS THAT EVERYONE
IN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
CHANTAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR CHANTAL
TO WEAKEN ALL TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING HISPANIOLA, THOUGH THIS IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANTAL AS AN OPEN
WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS, BUT THIS MODEL DIDN`T INITIALIZE
CHANTAL WELL.

AND WHILE WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CHANTAL INTO THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AS PER THE GFS. ACTIVE TIMES AHEAD.
3124. Grothar
From TS to Hurricane what will it be
Quoting 3118. gator23:
I wonder how many WU members will stay say its going to Texas today?


There is a lot of complicated weather north and north east of this tiny system.

Personally, I think the NHC has this puppy dead to rights.

Texas casters will have to come out in force before Chantal gets north of Hispanola, because Chantal is likely to still be well within the projected cone at that point in its journey.
Quoting 3083. NasBahMan:
Morning Baha,

Light rain and thunder in Briland this morning...looks like it will be pouring soon...sky is very dark looking towards Lutra
Sure does look like it's going to be overcast for much of the day here.

3128. Grothar
Enter stage right:

3132. ncstorm
Good Morning All..

3133. Grothar
Quoting 3123. GeoffreyWPB:
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco

* WATCHING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL

WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. NHC IS FORECASTING
CHANTAL TO TURN NW-N AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA, AS A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS. THIS WOULD TAKE CHANTAL TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THINGS CAN CHANGE SO THIS WILL OF
COURSE CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WHAT
THE LATEST GFS 09.00Z RUN SHOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT BUILDS A RIDGE
BACK IN NORTH OF CHANTAL SUN-TUE, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE WITH EVEN A SLIGHT BEND SW AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN, BUT THIS JUST SHOWS THAT EVERYONE
IN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
CHANTAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR CHANTAL
TO WEAKEN ALL TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING HISPANIOLA, THOUGH THIS IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANTAL AS AN OPEN
WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS, BUT THIS MODEL DIDN`T INITIALIZE
CHANTAL WELL.

AND WHILE WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CHANTAL INTO THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AS PER THE GFS. ACTIVE TIMES AHEAD.



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

Quoting 3082. Grothar:


Sure your friend still live by the Galleria mall?
Mail, Gro.
3136. GetReal
3137. SLU
Quoting 3107. HurrMichaelOrl:


That sounds like the perfect weather. I may just have to retire there.

I wonder if the 54 mph gust in St. Lucia is from a stray rain band from Chantal as the storm is still a ways away from the island (and not too strong anyhow)?


Yes a squall from a rainband.
3138. LargoFl
Quoting 3133. Grothar:



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

wELL I usually listen to the GFS when a storm is close,floridians..its time to review your plans and supplies for the coming season if you have not done so yet..I myself am watching this one for rainfall amounts come this weekend..we here on the gulf coast have been getting heavy rainfall for the last 2 weeks,ground is saturated.lakes are full and some rivers are still at flood stage..
3139. Dakster
8am mini-update here we come.
3141. Grothar
Quoting 3130. KoritheMan:
Enter stage right:



Kori, what are you doing up at this hour? I thought you worked the night shift on here?
Quoting 3130. KoritheMan:
Enter stage right:



Looking very good as it emerge the coast.
3143. ncstorm
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?
3144. Grothar
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.
Quoting 3143. ncstorm:
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?

Pretty much, yes. You can still see the feature but it's mostly just an open wave that dissipates in the Bahamas, no strengthening is shown.

It still shows Dorian though, it's getting consistent with that.
Quoting 3144. Grothar:
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.


Well! Aren't you just a perky little ray of sunshine this morning?!
I see recon should reach Chantal reach Chantal in an Hour or less.
3148. Grothar
Come on now, this has got to get your attention. Look behind Chantal.



3149. LargoFl
Quoting 3143. ncstorm:
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?


Pretty much after 120 hrs. Doesn't look to make it through Hispaniola on there. Dorian headed your way that run.
Quoting 3144. Grothar:
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.
Yeah, you don't sound too sure about that!
3152. Grothar
Quoting 3146. presslord:


Well! Aren't you just a perky little ray of sunshine this morning?!


And that is without coffee and breakfast. And anybody who tries to bust my chops this morning, is flirting with danger. :) I may be old and weak....never mind I did have a thought there.
3153. ncstorm
Quoting 3145. MAweatherboy1:

Pretty much, yes. You can still see the feature but it's mostly just an open wave that dissipates in the Bahamas, no strengthening is shown.

It still shows Dorian though, it's getting consistent with that.


Thanks..the GFS has been struggling with Chantal..and I assume that model run was with the new data placed in it..

however the CMC still is holding onto this storm..first one to see it as well..takes it into SC/GA..as I said yesterday, Im putting my money on the CMC

3154. GetReal


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)

No coffee yet, but a couple of quick obs.

1. Chantal has slowed, obviously butting up against the 1016mb of high pressure north of the system.
2. Motion likely to have more of a westerly component now that it has hit the strong high.
3. Slowed system has allowed better organization, layers now more symmetrical and vertically stacked. No maturity to the 200mb layers so still a burgeoning system.
4. ULL over the Bahamas has gotten a much better surface reflection at the 850mb layer.
5. Slowed system seems to be firing more convection, but is also experiencing the beginning of some upper level shear blowing tops from the CDO.

Back later when both eyes are open! ;)
3156. zampaz
Perhaps we'll get a view of the Tropical weather from the ISS during the spacewalk today.

The Astronauts, Chris and Luke are depressurizing the airlock now.
Fortunately I have more than one monitor so I can watch the walk and follow Dr. Master's blog the same time. Three media spectaculars at the same time!
(NasaTV stream and IIS stream are different)


The Link for NasaTV (streaming now on ustream) is:

Nasa TV has narrator audio which sometimes stomps on station to ground audio, but may have informative blurbs during LOS.
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/ustream/#.U dvuAG3N7DE

The Link for ISS TV (streaming delayed until SP start) is:

Typically only has station to ground audio traffic.
Has a social stream with people from all over the world and some very well informed space geeks, along with folks looking for UFO's!
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream
3157. ncstorm
Quoting 3150. AtHomeInTX:


Pretty much after 120 hrs. Doesn't look to make it through Hispaniola on there. Dorian headed your way that run.


whenever the GFS shows NC in long range, it never happens..LOL..so I think we are okay
3158. LargoFl
Quoting 3154. GetReal:


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
It seems Chantal is just as "groggy" as Grothar this morning...maybe one of them will get their act together! LOL.
3160. Relix
000
WTNT33 KNHC 091142
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL OBSERVED BY BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE RADARS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 59.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADARS FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM
AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXWIND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.T COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHANTAL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Good morning! I see Chantal still doesn't know how to slow down. Radar presentation seems good, though:
3162. JRRP
Quoting 3126. CycloneOz:


There is a lot of complicated weather north and north east of this tiny system.

Personally, I think the NHC has this puppy dead to rights.

Texas casters will have to come out in force before Chantal gets north of Hispanola, because Chantal is likely to still be well within the projected cone at that point in its journey.


Is Texas really that far out of Being a possibility? Even if this turns NW and heads for the Bahamas the long range models still show the ridge building back in and sending Chantal left into and possibly across Frorida. If the ridge builds in strong enough this storm could then push West across the GOM and into Texas. Not saying it will happen but there's always a chance with how dynamic weather patterns are.
3165. GetReal



Radar indicates center is near 13.8N and 60.3W.
Quoting 3152. Grothar:


And that is without coffee and breakfast. And anybody who tries to bust my chops this morning, is flirting with danger. :) I may be old and weak....never mind I did have a thought there.


Good Morning All, got my 1st cup of coffee and checking everything out.... mmmmmm long range out still looks to be showing turn to the west???? Not liking that at all.....
Now Gro you know they do not pay us to thing and as for me I was hired for just the neck down.... Just Saying

Taco :o)
3167. LargoFl
Florida had better keep a good eye on this storm..its up to 50mph now and moving fast and the models more and more are heading it to central florida..a rainy and windy weekend perhaps?..we'll see in the next few days..we surely do NOT need this right now..a few tree's have already fallen near my area due to the heavy rainfall the last few weeks..ground is soaked even before the storm possibly comes near.
Good Morning. We have had lots of "new-member" folks on in recent days that are obviously on just to troll and get folks riled up with inappropriate comments or nonsensical comments. An obvious bad sign when someone joins the Blog (keep an eye on the join date) and immediately starts making these types of comments.

Don't feed the trolls or re-quote them cause that fires them up more. Just ignore their comments and stay on topic.

We don't need a bunch of trolls hijacking the conversation during storms that threaten populated areas going into this season when lots of people come on here for important information and informed conversation.

Thanks.
Quoting 3154. GetReal:


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
This one has a good time with recon the two times it has fly she makes herself presentable in sattelites.
3170. pcola57
Barbados Radar:
3172. ncstorm
The Euro takes the energy left of Chantal in SC..
Quoting 3164. 69Viking:


Is Texas really that far out of Being a possibility? Even if this turns NW and heads for the Bahamas the long range models still show the ridge building back in and sending Chantal left into and possibly across Frorida. If the ridge builds in strong enough this storm could then push West across the GOM and into Texas. Not saying it will happen but there's always a chance with how dynamic weather patterns are.
I was thinking the same exact thing as you Viking,...I think that TX has been eliminated from being a "first strike" event at this point, but it could still be hit under the scenario you described.
Good Morning All,

Sorry NC I hope Chantal doesn't take the westerly turn through Florida. We haven't seen the sun here for a week. Major flooding in the panhandle, we don't need anymore rain.
New watch up
Good morning, Good afternoon, Good evening, everyone.
A very foggy 75 degrees this morning with a 30% chance of rain and a high expected of 93.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Omelets made from egg whites, with choice of cheeses, mushrooms, peppers and salsa, whole wheat and regular English muffins with cream cheese and jelly or lox, whole wheat or regular pancakes with fresh fruit or syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit, orange juice and fresh made coffee.
WOW
Quoting 3174. HurricaneAndre:
Good Morning all! I wouldn't mind if Chantal hit FL. It's about time we get a non-june storm to hit us. The last was Bonne in 2010. Not that we need the rain, but still fun nevertheless to be in a TS.
3180. hydrus
Quoting 3133. Grothar:



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

If Chantel remains disorganized, she get as far west as Eastern Cuba..Which would change things considerably.
3181. Kyon5
Recon just measured winds over 70mph.
Time: 11:48:30Z
Coordinates: 14.3833N 60.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 864.9 mb (~ 25.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,358 meters (~ 4,455 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.6 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 80° at 64 knots (From the E at ~ 73.6 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 14.4°C (~ 57.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
As to Chantal, the forward speed is preventing further organization so we will have to see what happens over the next 48. Post-Haiti may well be the best chance she has to reach high-grade tropical storm status.

Can't help but notice on the big-pic loops that that the three areas of interest, in order from East to West; the African wave, Chantal, and the ULL in the Bahamas are "moving around" the current ridge in the the Central Atlantic...........Follow the ULL and Chantel is headed in that general direction.
Quoting 3179. JrWeathermanFL:
Good Morning all! I wouldn't mind if Chantal hit FL. It's about time we get a non-june storm to hit us. The last was Bonne in 2010. Not that we need the rain, but still fun nevertheless to be in a TS.
Yes, fun. Power outages; beach erosion; property damage; escalated insurance premiums; inflated food and fuel prices; etc. Yep! A real barrel of laughs!
3185. 900MB
Wondering about the hispanola effect and the chance it is overstated in the case of Chantal. If it races last at 26mph wouldn't there be less detrimental effect? Thoughts?
3186. LargoFl
Doc should be on soon to make a new blog, it will be interesting to see His take on this system and where HE thinks its going
3187. Grothar
3188. pottery
Good Morning all.

It's a veritable Blob-Fest out in the Atlantic right now.

Showers here overnight, clearing out a little this morning.
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 3174. HurricaneAndre:
Chantal looks to be strengthening against all odds.
3191. LargoFl
Quoting 3184. Neapolitan:
Yes, fun. Power outages; beach erosion; property damage; escalated insurance premiums; inflated food and fuel prices; etc. Yep! A real barrel of laughs!
I am with you on that..we do NOT need this storm anywhere near us right now,ground is saturated,already flooding in some parts even before the storm..........
3192. Grothar
Quoting 3177. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, Good afternoon, Good evening, everyone.
A very foggy 75 degrees this morning with a 30% chance of rain and a high expected of 93.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Omelets made from egg whites, with choice of cheeses, mushrooms, peppers and salsa, whole wheat and regular English muffins with cream cheese and jelly or lox, whole wheat or regular pancakes with fresh fruit or syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit, orange juice and fresh made coffee.


I don't want to be picky, but do you have any decaf?
Time: 11:59:00Z
Coordinates: 13.9667N 60.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 969.9 mb (~ 28.64 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 294 meters (~ 965 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.8 mb (~ 29.61 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 167° at 8 knots (From the SSE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 23.3°C (~ 73.9°F)
Dew Pt: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
3194. zampaz
Quoting 3187. Grothar:

What's today's Blobcon Gro?
3195. Kyon5
The HH measured 1002 millibars.

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.3 mb (~ 29.60 inHg)
storms that are already developed flourish over the warm waters of the leeward and windward islands. this is not that odd to see further development
3197. Grothar
Quoting 3151. Waltanater:
Yeah, you don't sound too sure about that!



I'm 90 - 10 on it. But I'm not going to tell you which way.
What do you think the winds will be at the next advisory.
A 60
B 65
C 70
D same
Seems Chantal strengthened nicely overnight. Some hurricane force flight-level winds and 55-60mph winds at the surface. Pressure is much more typical to that of a Tropical Storm now.
3200. Relix
Quoting 3181. Kyon5:
Recon just measured winds over 70mph.
Time: 11:48:30Z
Coordinates: 14.3833N 60.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 864.9 mb (~ 25.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,358 meters (~ 4,455 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.6 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 80° at 64 knots (From the E at ~ 73.6 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 14.4°C (~ 57.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Those are flight winds, you must look at SFC Winds
3201. Grothar
Quoting 3194. zampaz:

What's today's Blobcon Gro?


Specificity. Which Blob? 1,2, or 3?
Quoting 3180. hydrus:
If Chantel remains disorganized, she get as far west as Eastern Cuba..Which would change things considerably.
That's because she is going really fast and has not slowed down.
3203. pottery
Anyone have a WV loop ?
Mine is not working right now. SAL images down too.
Quoting 3198. HurricaneAndre:
What do you think the winds will be at the next advisory.
A 60
B 65
C 70
D same
A surface winds are 60
3205. Kyon5
Quoting 3200. Relix:
Those are flight winds, you must look at SFC Winds

Oh, sorry about that, lol.
As noted by MLC, here is the latest CIMMs chart; the ULL over the Bahamas is working its way down to the surface.......Probably not enough time to develop but we have been watching for this possibility over the past several days.

Link

This will be one of the main influences, as it moves out of the way and breaks downs the ridge, on the trajectory of Chantal, or her remnants, after crossing the Greater Antilles. If the ridge builds back in quickly, Chantal could be forced back towards Florida. If not, Chantal could move a bit further North.

It boils down to how well Chantal survives the land interaction with Hispanola/Cuba and the timing of the ridging. We will not know the answer to this until the end of the week.
3207. zampaz
Quoting 3201. Grothar:


Specificity. Which Blob? 1,2, or 3?

Well, I was speaking of Bahamas...but any blob friend of yours is a friend of mine!
Could it be Chantal is stacked and ready to strengthen? Still, she is moving fast.
Good morning from the island of Barbados,what happen to the wind and rain? Hardly had any rain and no wind at all in Speightstown.
3210. FOREX
Quoting 3198. HurricaneAndre:
What do you think the winds will be at the next advisory.
A 60
B 65
C 70
D same


d
3211. hydrus
Looks like August.
Quoting 3184. Neapolitan:
Yes, fun. Power outages; beach erosion; property damage; escalated insurance premiums; inflated food and fuel prices; etc. Yep! A real barrel of laughs!
Maybe he rents and hates his landlord.
Quoting 3184. Neapolitan:
Yes, fun. Power outages; beach erosion; property damage; escalated insurance premiums; inflated food and fuel prices; etc. Yep! A real barrel of laughs!


At least in my neck of the woods, the only storm to ever cause an outage in my life was Charley. We've never had property damages despite 3 storms of TS force to pass over us in 2 years. WE don't buy food, we grow it so we don't worry about the prices and if Chantal was a Cat. 4..no but a TS, sure.
3214. Relix
Quoting 3205. Kyon5:

Oh, sorry about that, lol.


Don't worry, we are here to learn as we go :)

Quoting 3155. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)

No coffee yet, but a couple of quick obs.

1. Chantal has slowed, obviously butting up against the 1016mb of high pressure north of the system.
2. Motion likely to have more of a westerly component now that it has hit the strong high.
3. Slowed system has allowed better organization, layers now more symmetrical and vertically stacked. No maturity to the 200mb layers so still a burgeoning system.
4. ULL over the Bahamas has gotten a much better surface reflection at the 850mb layer.
5. Slowed system seems to be firing more convection, but is also experiencing the beginning of some upper level shear blowing tops from the CDO.

Back later when both eyes are open! ;)
Hey MLC you think I has already slow down it looks to be going around 20-25mph. If it get get under 20mph that would be substantial for development
3216. pottery
Quoting bajanmet:
Good morning from the island of Barbados,what happen to the wind and rain? Hardly had any rain and no wind at all in Speightstown.

Mornin' Bage ! Trini here.

Looking at the radar I thought you got plenty.
Better luck next time :):))
Quoting 3192. Grothar:


I don't want to be picky, but do you have any decaf?


But of course, let me put the pot out!
3218. hydrus
Quoting 3202. Waltanater:
That's because she is going really fast and has not slowed down.
And this.
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.
3220. pcola57
Here's Water Vapor pot..
My SAL isn't updating.. :(

Quoting 3219. MAweatherboy1:
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.
Quoting 3219. MAweatherboy1:
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.
If the NHC upgrade the winds to 60 or 65 in the next advisory she might very well reach hurricane intensity before landfall in DR.
Looks like recon pegged the CoC, pressures are around 1003mb or so.
Quoting 3206. weathermanwannabe:
As noted by MLC, here is the latest CIMMs chart; the ULL over the Bahamas is working its way down to the surface.......Probably not enough time to develop but we have been watching for this possibility over the past several days.

Link

This will be one of the main influences, as it moves out of the way and breaks downs the ridge, on the trajectory of Chantel, or her remnants, after crossing the Greater Antilles. If the ridge builds back in quickly, Chantel could be forced back towards Florida. If not, Chantel could move a bit further North.

It boils down to how well Chantel survives the land interaction with Hispanola/Cuba and the timing of the ridging. We will not know the answer to this until the end of the week.


This sort of factual, realistic approach will not be tolerated here!!!!!
Regardless of convective orgnization this storm continues to produce a lot of strong winds could be 60mph at 11pm. If it can slow down today we may see a good day for strengthen. Storm continues to defy odds wonder if this is indicative for the rest of the season. Stronger less organized storms.
ime: 12:04:00Z
Coordinates: 13.8667N 60.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 969.5 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 300 meters (~ 984 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.2 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163° at 1 knots (From the SSE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 22.4°C (~ 72.3°F)
Dew Pt: 21.7°C (~ 71.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Quoting 3212. Waltanater:
Maybe he rents and hates his landlord.


Odds are he's not yet old enough to rent or own and doesn't have to pay for things. He/She will learn in time. Weather watching can be fun, living through it isn't always fun.
Quoting 3222. allancalderini:
If the NHC upgrade the winds to 60 or 65 in the next advisory she might very well reach hurricane intensity before landfall in DR.

I still can't see it becoming a hurricane with its current structure, but assuming those winds are correct and the 11AM intensity is 60 or 65mph, a hurricane watch may be required for some areas.
3229. Relix
Quoting 3222. allancalderini:
If the NHC upgrade the winds to 60 or 65 in the next advisory she might very well reach hurricane intensity before landfall in DR.


I am not sure it will make landfall in DR. It looks to be aiming at that spot in Mona Passage, maybe clip the east tip of DR, unless the high does flatten it and forces it west.
good morning everyone.i see chantal is shocking all of us. 0z and 6z GFS both develop dorian again. if it can avoid hispanola, dorian will most likely become a hurricane given the favorable environment shown on the GFS
Quoting 3223. CybrTeddy:
Looks like recon pegged the CoC, pressures are around 1003mb or so.


Chantal has been very difficult to forecast in terms of intensity. I may get here more than what is forecast.
3232. Grothar
Quoting 3223. CybrTeddy:
Looks like recon pegged the CoC, pressures are around 1003mb or so.


Teddy, think we will busy the next couple of weeks.

3233. pottery
Quoting pcola57:
Here's Water Vapor pot..
My SAL isn't updating.. :(


Thanks.
Chanty still can't make an appreciable dent in that dry stuff....
3234. Levi32
1003mb is much better than yesterday. She is still struggling with the fast flow though. Her NW quad is empty as a result.

AL, 03, 2013070912, , BEST, 0, 139N, 603W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 80, 1012, 140, 25, 0, 0,

Quoting 3228. MAweatherboy1:

I still can't see it becoming a hurricane with its current structure, but assuming those winds are correct and the 11AM intensity is 60 or 65mph, a hurricane watch may be required for some areas.
At this rate any good blow of convection could result into a Cat. 1
Quoting 3221. WeatherNerdPR:


Just like I thought, very compact and tight CoC. Better organized than yesterday. Still looks disorganized on satellite though.
Quoting 3206. weathermanwannabe:
As noted by MLC, here is the latest CIMMs chart; the ULL over the Bahamas is working its way down to the surface.......Probably not enough time to develop but we have been watching for this possibility over the past several days.

Link

This will be one of the main influences, as it moves out of the way and breaks downs the ridge, on the trajectory of Chantel, or her remnants, after crossing the Greater Antilles. If the ridge builds back in quickly, Chantel could be forced back towards Florida. If not, Chantel could move a bit further North.

It boils down to how well Chantel survives the land interaction with Hispanola/Cuba and the timing of the ridging. We will not know the answer to this until the end of the week.
Quoting 3206. weathermanwannabe:
As noted by MLC, here is the latest CIMMs chart; the ULL over the Bahamas is working its way down to the surface.......Probably not enough time to develop but we have been watching for this possibility over the past several days.

Link

This will be one of the main influences, as it moves out of the way and breaks downs the ridge, on the trajectory of Chantel, or her remnants, after crossing the Greater Antilles. If the ridge builds back in quickly, Chantel could be forced back towards Florida. If not, Chantel could move a bit further North.

It boils down to how well Chantel survives the land interaction with Hispanola/Cuba and the timing of the ridging. We will not know the answer to this until the end of the week.
People please is Chantal not Chantel .Its a totally different name.
Quoting 3218. hydrus:
And this.
Yup!
Good morning ...looks like we have a strengthening Chantal
3241. pottery
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Regardless of convective orgnization this storm continues to produce a lot of strong winds could be 60mph at 11pm. If it can slow down today we may see a good day for strengthen. Storm continues to defy odds wonder if this is indicative for the rest of the season. Stronger less organized storms.

and yet, no winds reported from B'Dos.
Quoting 3158. LargoFl:
I gotta admit, I have a lot more faith in that turn to the west than I did the original forecast of a track through the Bahamas. This is because every time in recent years that multiple models have seen this kind of abrupt anomalous turn in a track, we've seen the forecast verify. To wit: Jeanne, with the loop-back; Ike with the southern bend of Cuba that seemed so unbelievable at the time.

So pple in Central FL should be on the lookout... not boarding up or anything, but definitely watching.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
3243. hydrus
96 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Quoting 3219. MAweatherboy1:
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.


That surprises me. Doesn't look that good on sat pics. Bit of a raggy doll, is Chantal.
Quoting 3225. Hurricanes305:
Regardless of convective orgnization this storm continues to produce a lot of strong winds could be 60mph at 11pm. If it can slow down today we may see a good day for strengthen. Storm continues to defy odds wonder if this is indicative for the rest of the season. Stronger less organized storms.
You mean 11am...however it just may have those winds now.
Here is the am NCEP Caribbean Desk Discussion...Good points on the current steering mechanism for Chantal:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
807 AM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE CENTERS TO THE NORTH OF 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS HELPING TO STIR CHANTAL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WHILE MOVING STRAIGHT INTO HISPANIOLA...TO THEN TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.


3247. Grothar
Quoting 3219. MAweatherboy1:
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.


She looks pretty good here.


Quoting 3232. Grothar:


Teddy, think we will busy the next couple of weeks.

Something is wrong why does it look like August 9th rather than July 9th I have never seen this much MDR action till mid-late August this is start to send shivers fown my spine. Chantal is a huge test run now.
3249. GetReal



Amazingly Chantal satellite presentation is not as impressive as it was yesterday at this time, but RECON is finding lower pressure and stronger winds.
Link
Link for radar showing Chantal
Quoting 3240. weatherlover94:
Good morning ...looks like we have a strengthening Chantal
FINALLY!
Excerpt

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
3254. pottery
Quoting Hurricanes305:

Something is wrong why does it look like August 9th rather than July 9th I have never seen this much MDR action till mid-late August this is start to send shivers fown my spine. Chantal is a huge test run now.

and everything is so low. Troubling !
3255. Relix
Chantal is just telling us what matters is the inside, not the outside. :P!
Quoting 3238. allancalderini:
People please is Chantal not Chantel .Its a totally different name.


Thanks.........Just corrected.....Still working on the first cup of coffee..........
Quoting 3232. Grothar:


Teddy, think we will busy the next couple of weeks.



Blobs eh gro?

Gfs develops a pair of waves that roll off the African coast. This would be unprecedented for the atlantic over its entire history. (Which I'm sure you remember all of)
Quoting 3247. Grothar:


She looks pretty good here.

lol sure does have a good ball of convection. If this was not moving so fast it could of have easily been a hurricane by now.
Chantal has been trolling hard these last few days.Just when people think it's the end for her she comes back and laughs in our faces playing pick-a-boo.Shows that we still have a lot to learn in terms of developing cyclones.
If it really gets it's act together we could be dealing with a storm stronger than 45 mph after Hispaniola more like 50 mph on the other side....if it moves on the northern edge of the island we could have a much stronger system if it misses the main mountains of Hispaniola....if the models shift just a little farther north that will bring it away from the main mountain chain
Quoting 3219. MAweatherboy1:
Wow, recon found flight level winds near hurricane force, 65mph or so at the surface. Chantal fools us again.
Chantal is one of the biggest trolls that I have ever tracked in the Atlantic if it is really a 65 mph storm right now.
3262. pottery
Quoting GetReal:



Amazingly Chantal satellite presentation is not as impressive as it was yesterday at this time, but RECON is finding lower pressure and stronger winds.

Curiouser and curiouser it is.
Quoting 3256. weathermanwannabe:


Thanks.........Just corrected.....Still working on the first cup of coffee..........
No problem.
3264. hydrus
I dont mind saying that the upper low over the Bahamas looks a bit more interesting today.
Quoting 3248. Hurricanes305:

Something is wrong why does it look like August 9th rather than July 9th I have never seen this much MDR action till mid-late August this is start to send shivers fown my spine. Chantal is a huge test run now.
Maybe it is a sign we will be in for it! Time to blow away 2005 numbers and stats!
Quoting 3192. Grothar:


I don't want to be picky, but do you have any decaf?
Sorry Gro, I drank it... here, let me put on another pot for you...
3267. WxLogic
1003MB... not bad given its visual presentation.
since weathermanwannabe has already broken the rules about realism here...I'll offer up my two cents worth: This ain't exactly gonna be the Storm of the Century...or the Decade...or even the Year...
3269. hu2007
chantal looks organize on radars but the cloud tops and structure look desorganize, i think that chantal have peaked intensity of 50mph no more than 60 mph. and tracking wnw and i expect a slight weakening starting tommorrow during the day.on too puerto rico, looks like we are going to get the weak north side of chantal in terms of prolonged rain but is going to get gusty and squally tonight in too wednesday morning,after that it should slow down and take a nw path in to the bahamas as a td or 40mph storm,and either should dissipate or should intensified and go to the carolinas or georgia and florida. stay tune for more updates
3270. pottery
Quoting presslord:
since weathermanwannabe has already broken the rules about realism here...I'll offer up my two cents worth: This ain't exactly gonna be the Storm of the Century...or the Decade...or even the Year...

How utterly disappointing.
Where is your Spirit of Make-Believe??
Sheesh.
3271. bwi
Barbados radar use 400km:
http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro/BMS_Radar Displayer.php

14.0 60.6? Further north than I expected.
Quoting 3268. presslord:
since weathermanwannabe has already broken the rules about realism here...I'll offer up my two cents worth: This ain't exactly gonna be the Storm of the Century...or the Decade...or even the Year...
This is going to become a cat 7 and cause unthinkable destruction in NYC and New England as a whole?.What'chu taking about?.lol.
I think Dr Masters is waiting on the Data from the HH this morning :o)

Taco :o)
Got some stuff to do this morning guys. I will try to talk to you guys some on my I Pod some. It will be interesting to see what happens today with both intensity and new computer model runs....first off i'm getting my morning coffee :P


Surface circulation on the Bahamas system

Gro I see a blobcon being raised in the near future
Quoting 3238. allancalderini:
People please is Chantal not Chantel .Its a totally different name.
Huh! Go figure...LOL
3277. Grothar
120 hours



276 hours

Yikes!

Quoting 3267. WxLogic:
1003MB... not bad given its visual presentation.



1003 is good considering the atmospheric pressure surrounding it.
She is passing between St. Lucia and Martinique now! She seems to be getting better organized. Link
wnw up to the butterfly island? i doubt now it will get up that far north l
Hi All,

Hey pottery, Baha etc...

Rain here in Barbados, authorities were very prepared last night, after the lesson from Tomas.

But looks like Chantal is having a bit of a time. Possibly a rain event for folks down the road, could cause some flooding.

The one behind, about four days off Barbados, is what I would worry about more, although one should never discount a storm, so Chantal could still spring a surprise.

Awaiting all clear to get to work.

Have a good day.
Looks like she is passing between St. Lucia and Martinique right now!
Quoting 3249. GetReal:



Amazingly Chantal satellite presentation is not as impressive as it was yesterday at this time, but RECON is finding lower pressure and stronger winds.
Maybe recon flew into the wrong system!? O_o
Quoting 3278. Tropicsweatherpr:
Yikes!



The pictures are not downloading for me. Why the 'yikes'?
3286. pottery
Quoting bajelayman2:
Hi All,

Hey pottery, Baha etc...

Rain here in Barbados, authorities were very prepared last night, after the lesson from Tomas.

But looks like Chantal is having a bit of a time. Possibly a rain event for folks down the road, could cause some flooding.

The one behind, about four days off Barbados, is what I would worry about more, although one should never discount a storm, so Chantal could still spring a surprise.

Awaiting all clear to get to work.

Have a good day.

Good to see you.
Keep an eye east. Stuff is coming in....
I have seen many storm that look very organized but it is not producing even a breeze. This on the other hand continues to strengthen regardless of satellite appearance which brings up the point that Recon is the best source of meteorology for TC. As man as got a lot to learn about the system. Given that at anytime the system can fire off more convection and rapidly intensify so for now dont judge the storm based only on satellite or you will be wrong. 
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 12:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2013
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 12:04:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°52'N 60°19'W (13.8667N 60.3167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (74 km) to the ESE (102°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 80° at 64kts (From the E at ~ 73.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 391m (1,283ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 363m (1,191ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 11:52:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center
3290. Grothar
Quoting 3275. weatherh98:


Surface circulation on the Bahamas system

Gro I see a blobcon being raised in the near future


OK, BlobCon 2 on this one.

Looks like recon supports 60 mph at 11 am.
Several more 50-58mph winds just reported by recon.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 12:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2013
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 12:04:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°52'N 60°19'W (13.8667N 60.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (74 km) to the ESE (102°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 80° at 64kts (From the E at ~ 73.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 391m (1,283ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 363m (1,191ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 11:52:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center
Quoting 3259. washingtonian115:
Chantal has been trolling hard these last few days.Just when people think it's the end for her she comes back and laughs in our faces playing pick-a-boo.Shows that we still have a lot to learn in terms of developing cyclones.
I don't think anyone has really written her off (maybe one person)...she is definitely relentless.
3295. hydrus
Florida may have a significant storm on there hands if not weakened much from land interaction. The trough that is forecast to lift Chantal north is a fast mover. High pressure that is already strong will build in rapidly as the trough lifts out. This set up would also favor fairly rapid intensification.


Models still have that sharp turn West,  The models really reminds me of Frances in 2004.
Quoting 3294. Waltanater:
I don't think anyone has really written her off (maybe one person)...she is definitely relentless.
I like that word, "relentless."
3298. gator23
Beryl 2012 hit in May ;-)

Quoting 3179. JrWeathermanFL:
Good Morning all! I wouldn't mind if Chantal hit FL. It's about time we get a non-june storm to hit us. The last was Bonne in 2010. Not that we need the rain, but still fun nevertheless to be in a TS.
Starting to get some serious thunder here... so of course, on the day I don't have to leave before 10 a.m., the wx is going to wait right until then to pour... lol...

Quoting 3259. washingtonian115:
Chantal has been trolling hard these last few days.Just when people think it's the end for her she comes back and laughs in our faces playing pick-a-boo.Shows that we still have a lot to learn in terms of developing cyclones.
Tole ya Chantal is a full time drama queen...

Quoting 3265. Waltanater:
Maybe it is a sign we will be in for it! Time to blow away 2005 numbers and stats!
Let's not. Let's not even say we did.
Quoting 3268. presslord:
since weathermanwannabe has already broken the rules about realism here...I'll offer up my two cents worth: This ain't exactly gonna be the Storm of the Century...or the Decade...or even the Year...
Agreed. I'm more concerned about it as the harbinger of "worser" things to come.

Quoting 3285. rmbjoe1954:


The pictures are not downloading for me. Why the 'yikes'?


Barbados radar.

Link
Time: 12:30:00Z
Coordinates: 14.3N 59.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 958.8 mb (~ 28.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 491 meters (~ 1,611 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.7 mb (~ 29.96 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 131° at 59 knots (From the SE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 3272. washingtonian115:
This is going to become a cat 7 and cause unthinkable destruction in NYC and New England as a whole?.What'chu taking about?.lol.

But first it will hit DC LOL
Good morning all from NOLA
80 this morning with 93% humidity....sticky sticky
Last hurricane to hit Florida was in 2005. It's been a while.
When are da models saying the next "storm" will form?
Are the models still spinning up a future Dorian?

Cuba and Hispanola have always been the equivalent of "barrier islands" for Florida bound storms taking these kinds of tracks. The models have been upgraded over the years to try and account for land interaction issues but a wobble or two around a mountainous area can make a big difference in the survival of the circulation.

Thursday and Friday will be pretty exciting times with lots of last minute adjustments and increased recon flights.
3310. Grothar
Quoting 3307. GeoffreyWPB:
Are the models still spinning up a future Dorian?




They've been a little gray on that one.
Quoting 3277. Grothar:
120 hours



276 hours

GFS says to hell with Florida?.That model sure has it out for you guys.
Quoting 3295. hydrus:
Florida may have a significant storm on there hands if not weakened much from land interaction. The trough that is forecast to lift Chantal north is a fast mover. High pressure that is already strong will build in rapidly as the trough lifts out. This set up would also favor fairly rapid intensification.


Chantal looks angry in that pic.If it tracks over the flat part then watch out Florida!.

BahaHurican
Tole ya Chantal is a full time drama queen...

The show is interesting to watch indeed.
Quoting 3282. bajelayman2:
Hi All,

Hey pottery, Baha etc...

Rain here in Barbados, authorities were very prepared last night, after the lesson from Tomas.

But looks like Chantal is having a bit of a time. Possibly a rain event for folks down the road, could cause some flooding.

The one behind, about four days off Barbados, is what I would worry about more, although one should never discount a storm, so Chantal could still spring a surprise.

Awaiting all clear to get to work.

Have a good day.
Unfortunately for us, looks like lots more stuff headed our way. And given this high setup, Chantal may not be out of the ordinary trackwise for the season... :o/
Quoting 3301. BahaHurican:
Agreed. I'm more concerned about it as the harbinger of "worser" things to come.



It may be even more worserer than you think. :)
This could change, but right now shear is low and decreasing off the east coast of FL in the Bahamas region, that could allow for some pretty fast strengthening in that area if it survives to get there. The farther north it goes, the better it should do:

3316. Grothar
Quoting 3304. StormPro:

But first it will hit DC LOL
Good morning all from NOLA
80 this morning with 93% humidity....sticky sticky


Hey, Pro. Where you've been hiding yourself? They only let you out on "Storm Week"?

Quoting 3296. FIUStormChaser:
Models still have that sharp turn West,  The models really reminds me of Frances in 2004.
If it turn that far east then the west turn back will be even faster putting Central/South Florida more at risk thus this is going to slow down to a drift as the High builds over it as Hydrus mentioned a pattern very favorable for fast development. Not to mention if it becomes a hurricane and dont weaken as much by the land interaction. That will be the worse case scenario. Watch this storm carefully.
Quoting 3304. StormPro:

But first it will hit DC LOL
Good morning all from NOLA
80 this morning with 93% humidity....sticky sticky
Not if it comes in perpendicular to the east coast :).
Quoting 3310. Grothar:



They've been a little gray on that one.


Very nice!
Quoting 3286. pottery:

Good to see you.
Keep an eye east. Stuff is coming in....


Thanks. Yup, I see what is coming off the coast of Africa.

Looks for an interesting while ahead.

Take Care.
3322. SLU
Winds in St. Lucia are variable at 5mph with light rain. No sign of a strong TS on our doorstep ...... yet.
Quoting 3315. MAweatherboy1:
This could change, but right now shear is low and decreasing off the east coast of FL in the Bahamas region, that could allow for some pretty fast strengthening in that area if it survives to get there. The farther north it goes, the better it should do:

Shear continues to decrease in the Ecab just in time for Chantal as it is going to pass that part today and tomorrow.
Quoting 3311. washingtonian115:
GFS says to hell with Florida?.That model sure has it out for you guys.
Chantal looks angry in that pic.If it tracks over the flat part then watch out Florida!.

BahaHurican
Tole ya Chantal is a full time drama queen...

The show is interesting to watch indeed.
LOL... agreed... much more interesting here than the discussion the last 2 wks before Chantal... ;o)
3325. hydrus
NWS Office Charleston is finally paying close attention:

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS TO TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL. LATEST GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 5 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PERIOD IS UNUSUALLY LOW. FEEL A KEY PLAYER IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
CHANTAL IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE PREVALENT ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE 00Z/09
CANADIAN SOLUTION OF CHANTAL MAKING LANDFALL IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AND QUITE A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CWA OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OR FAR
NORTH FLORIDA NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO LET OUR GUARD DOWN. THE CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND POSSIBLY OUR CWA IS INCREASING WITH TIME AND CERTAINLY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
8am Models are in...... Models shifted a little south... Bringing Chantal in near Stuart....
Quoting 3316. Grothar:


Hey, Pro. Where you've been hiding yourself? They only let you out on "Storm Week"?

I usually pop in every morning Gro, Most of the time I'm lurkin' or working. How are you my friend?
Quoting 3321. HurricaneAndre:

pretty good winds in there and might even be safe to say the winds and Tropical Storm Chantal will have winds of 60MPH and pressure down to 1003MB

Taco :o)
3330. bwi
Barbados radar presentation impressive. No eyewall, but you can see the outlines of where it would like to set up -- cruising along 14n
3331. Grothar
126 hours


3332. Grothar
Quoting 3328. StormPro:

I usually pop in every morning Gro, Most of the time I'm lurkin' or working. How are you my friend?


perkin'
Recon is going in for another center fix.
Quoting 3330. bwi:
Barbados radar presentation impressive. No eyewall, but you can see the outlines of where it would like to set up -- cruising along 14n


Chantal has slowed down?
3335. Murko
Here at 25.46N 76.62W, North Eleuthera, Bahamas, we're getting some very heavy rain and winds of 30mph+, gusts to 40mph from the south to east.
Quoting 3307. GeoffreyWPB:
Are the models still spinning up a future Dorian?

grothars blob from yesterday off florid as east coast looks like it split in two. The bigger piece seems to be firing more convection. Anyone else see that?

Quoting 3315. MAweatherboy1:
This could change, but right now shear is low and decreasing off the east coast of FL in the Bahamas region, that could allow for some pretty fast strengthening in that area if it survives to get there. The farther north it goes, the better it should do:

Shear is too bad in the East Caribbean especially if the storm remains in the good bubble of low shear it has a good chance to hit cane status if this continues but the Bahamas looks really ripe and some RI could not be out the question if it does interact with land too much and hold it winds too. We shall see.  
Quoting 3331. Grothar:
126 hours


Gro is that Chantal or Dorian?.Is this still the GFS model?.sorry for the questions.
Another good set of readings just in from recon, still showing support for a 60mph intensity at 11.
3341. Grothar
Quoting 3327. FIUStormChaser:
8am Models are in...... Models shifted a little south... Bringing Chantal in near Stuart....


They've been shifting since last night


Quoting 3331. Grothar:
126 hours


Oh no just like I said worse scenario it push Cat. 2 in the Bahamas If it become 60 mph at 11pm hurricane watches will likely go up for DR.
3343. Levi32
Martinique is the place to be watching for high winds at the surface. Chantal's tight vortex is passing just south of there. So far nothing TS force yet.
Well, it's that time of year already. I have to go up to my classroom and set it up. Everyone have a great day and I look forward to see what's happening when I get back this afternoon.
Quoting 3332. Grothar:


perkin'

That's good news. So glad you are doing better.
So everyone, gut feelings on Chantal. I'm seeing a brush with several islands, north along Florida and the hook towards the west somewhere near Jacksonville. I look forward to blogging with you all
3347. bigtp3
The 8AM models show Chantal turning west into South/Central Florida, i'm wondering why the official track has it nowhere near there...
Quoting 3341. Grothar:


They've been shifting since last night



That shows Chantal going right over "my house"!

Quoting 3343. Levi32:
Martinique is the place to be watching for high winds at the surface. Chantal's tight vortex is passing just south of there. So far nothing TS force yet.
Very tight compact winds.

Quoting 3347. bigtp3:
The 8AM models show Chantal turning west into South/Central Florida, i'm wondering why the official track has it nowhere near there...
NHC is still waiting for more consistency another shift west on the 11am cone is likely.
Looks like a pretty significant southward shift in the latest model suites. Will be interesting to see whether or not the NHC moves along with this significant southward shift. Also, am impressed by the Hurricane Hunter data showing a stronger tropical storm.
This storm annoys me. Yesterday it had a visual presentation of a 60mph storm, yet the recon only found a 50mph storm with 1010mb pressures. Today it has the visual presentation of a 45mph storm, and the recon is finding a 60mph TS with 1003mb pressures.
Webcam at Le Lorrain, on the Northeast coast of Martinique.

Well to answer my own question I think that's Chantal..but is it the new run of the GFS because it dropped her last model run.
3355. Levi32
See this. The intensity models are now starting to make Chantal's strongest days occur after Hispaniola, not before. If she survives the mountains intact, the environment there is conducive to make her a problem afterwards.

Morning!!!! The Models are all over the place with the Intensity Forecast and track of Chantal. They are all related. Simply put, if Chantal is weaker she moves South all the way thru the Caribbean. If she stays as is (around 50mph), then she moves the Forecast Current Track. But, if she gets much stronger then she moves further north and miss the big mountains entering further East of the Bahamas into the Atlantic before making a left hand turn and possibly becoming a very Strong Hurricane.
Quoting 3352. CybrTeddy:
This storm annoys me. Yesterday it had a visual presentation of a 60mph storm, yet the recon only found a 50mph storm with 1010mph pressures. Today it has the visual presentation of a 45mph storm, and the recon is finding a 60mph TS with 1003mb pressures.

Satellite appearance is second fiddle to recon. Always trust actual observations.

Natalie
3358. Grothar
Quoting 3339. washingtonian115:
Gro is that Chantal or Dorian?.Is this still the GFS model?.sorry for the questions.


It would be the next storm. I can't say Dorian, because something else could form somewhere before that.


The end of the GFDL run...
I think Chanty is coming for West Palm Beach, FL
Quoting 3352. CybrTeddy:
This storm annoys me. Yesterday it had a visual presentation of a 60mph storm, yet the recon only found a 50mph storm with 1010mph pressures. Today it has the visual presentation of a 45mph storm, and the recon is finding a 60mph TS with 1003mb pressures.


Wow that's strong ;)
But I agree, like everyone was sayin the other day, this is gonna be one of those tricky storms to forecast.
Hey guys look at this for the first time Chantal has some good convergence going to equal the already decent divergence flow. Satellite may not support a 60mph storm yet but it is finally starting to get some surface lift. Something to watch for as it continues WNW today. Hurricane is very possible and I would not be surprised if the NHC show it becoming a Hurricane before DR.



Balanced by divergence:



We have a strengthening TS.
Okay. She's about to enter the dead zone of the eastern Caribbean. The she has the rugged terrain of Hispaniola to deal with. Am I really still hearing predictions of possibly becoming a strong hurricane? :)

Natalie
3365. hydrus
Quoting 3335. Murko:
Here at 25.46N 76.62W, North Eleuthera, Bahamas, we're getting some very heavy rain and winds of 30mph+, gusts to 40mph from the south to east.
I would say there is something trying to form under your blob..Keep us posted if possible.
Quoting 3356. TampaSpin:
Morning!!!! The Models are all over the place with the Intensity Forecast and track of Chantal. They are all related. Simply put, if Chantal is weaker she moves South all the way thru the Caribbean. If she stays as is (around 50mph), then she moves the Forecast Current Track. But, if she gets much stronger then she moves further north and miss the big mountains entering further East of the Bahamas into the Atlantic before making a left hand turn and possibly becoming a very Strong Hurricane.
Quoting 3335. Murko:
Here at 25.46N 76.62W, North Eleuthera, Bahamas, we're getting some very heavy rain and winds of 30mph+, gusts to 40mph from the south to east.
Hey, Murko... wondered if I would see u in today... looks like the NW Bahamas is going to get the worst of this ULL... I'm not liking the idea of rain upon rain [w/ whatever comes of Chantal in our neck of the woods by the weekend]. And as I feared, it looks like whatever Independence festivities are likely to be rained out :o(
Quoting 3361. MisterPerfect:
I think Chanty is coming for West Palm Beach, FL

I do too. Her remnants.
dead zone does not exist for developed systems john hope rules states if the system is not developed it wont until at least the western carib. remember gilbert. he flourished in the eastern carib.
You all see the 06z runs of the GFDL and HWRF? They both are now showing intensification in the Bahamas and a sharp left. That realistic?
Nice to see you again TampaSpin. We need Ike to show up as well.
The more input, the better.
Good discussions this morning.
Recon is climbing...
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 361 meters (~ 1,184 feet)
to
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 953 meters (~ 3,127 feet)
We 've got strong wind in Martinique FWI , 40 to 50nds with rain !!!

Quoting 3363. Hurricanes305:
Hey guys look at this for the first time Chantal has some good convergence going to equal the already decent divergence flow. Satellite may not support a 60mph storm yet but it is finally starting to get some surface lift. Something to watch for as it continues WNW today. Hurricane is very possible and I would not be surprised if the NHC show it becoming a Hurricane before DR.



Balanced by divergence:



We have a strengthening TS.


What I find interesting here also is the convergence and divergence shown in the AOI over the bahamas....
Quoting 3355. Levi32:
See this. The intensity models are now starting to make Chantal's strongest days occur after Hispaniola, not before. If she survives the mountains intact, the environment there is conducive to make her a problem afterwards.



NHC remains at the bottom of the guidance. I can't wait to see what the NHC does intensity wise and track wise with their cone.
3377. SLU
I'm located in the SW quadrant of Chantal about 20miles SW of the center and the winds are westerly at only 5 - 8 mph. Weak circulation caused by the rapid movement.
Quoting 3370. islander101010:
dead zone does not exist for developed systems

That's right. The "rule" is, if it is developed before it enters the Hebert Box it stays developed, if it is not a cyclone, i.e. wave, it wont develop. Usually
Good Morning/Evening

All the amazing animations, clean radar, and model tracking on here has me SPOILED to the core.
Let me just say thank you to all the people that make this happen so consistently, constantly, and nicely so that I CAN just take it for granted.
You have given me clear new eyes to see the world and weather and to blind them now would be a bighting pain.
3380. 7544
looks like our ull didnt give in and did well at dmax is it still moving to the west
ok so I wake up to all the models not only shifting to the WEST, but all the reliable ones show Chantel taking a pretty good LEFT TURN.... that might even put her in the east gulf eventually?!?!? BIG CHANGES... I would suspect the next NHC will put her landfalling along the Florida coast...
3382. Grothar
The intensity models look a lot like my last EKG.


Quoting 3352. CybrTeddy:
This storm annoys me. Yesterday it had a visual presentation of a 60mph storm, yet the recon only found a 50mph storm with 1010mph pressures. Today it has the visual presentation of a 45mph storm, and the recon is finding a 60mph TS with 1003mb pressures.

satellite images are often misleading Ernesto last year looked well but was a mess underneath and many non tropical systems look like hurricanes
Noticing in N. Dade County lower level cumulus clouds are starting to move on a more southerly trajectory maybe some low level circulation starting in the Bahamas. Although cool and calm for a change.
We 've got strong wind in Martinique FWI , 40 to 50nds with rain !!!

Lamentin , Martinique FWI just now !
Did anyone see the GFDL at 06Z? Borderline Cat 2 pushing westward to Eastern Florida by the blocking ridge to the north. Not counting Chantal out yet and not saying this will happen we just need to be sure we are keeping our eyes and ears open.
Quoting 3382. Grothar:
The intensity models look a lot like my last EKG.



"Wow" that healthy.... :o)Your blob con 2 is looking good this morning :o)

Taco :o0
Quoting 3336. mcdsara1:
grothars blob from yesterday off florid as east coast looks like it split in two. The bigger piece seems to be firing more convection. Anyone else see that?
That blob may be cooling the waters of the Bahamas a bit there before any possible storm arrive. Still the Gulfstream off Florida's coast is non-stop warm water. And I am for naming a storm Mickey mouse--nice profile picture there.
The biggest potential problem with Chantal, down the line after Hispanola, is finding very favorable conditions East of Florida and getting a bump from the Gulf Stream leading to a rapid intensification event.

Pure speculation at the moment but not outside the realm of possibilities.............A very tricky forecast either way both as to potential track and intensity in the longer term.
3391. hydrus
Quoting 3364. SouthernIllinois:
Okay. She's about to enter the dead zone of the eastern Caribbean. The she has the rugged terrain of Hispaniola to deal with. Am I really still hearing predictions of possibly becoming a strong hurricane? :)

Natalie
Good morning Natalie..It is possible if Chantal makes it back into the Atlantic somewhat intact, that she could strengthen significantly over the Bahamas. The models are also coming into agreement that a Florida landfall is a possibility. There will be a quick shift in track and forward speed off the coast. The storm will be monitored closely.
3392. RTLSNK
Quoting 3371. IceSlater:
You all see the 06z runs of the GFDL and HWRF? They both are now showing intensification in the Bahamas and a sharp left. That realistic?


Chantal will be within a very conducive environment at that time, so yes intensification after it passes Hispaniola is a good possibility. As for the left turn, it may not seem so common because it hasn't happened often in recent history, however it is a fairly common track if you go back and look at storms from the late 19th and early 20th century. (Frances is a more recent one that comes to mind) We just have a pattern where the Bermuda Ridge will build back in quickly after a weakness- forcing the system sharply left.
3394. Matt74
Quoting 3347. bigtp3:
The 8AM models show Chantal turning west into South/Central Florida, i'm wondering why the official track has it nowhere near there...
Probably want to see some consistency from the models instead of just one run.But I'm no expert though.
Quoting 3356. TampaSpin:
Morning!!!! The Models are all over the place with the Intensity Forecast and track of Chantal. They are all related. Simply put, if Chantal is weaker she moves South all the way thru the Caribbean. If she stays as is (around 50mph), then she moves the Forecast Current Track. But, if she gets much stronger then she moves further north and miss the big mountains entering further East of the Bahamas into the Atlantic before making a left hand turn and possibly becoming a very Strong Hurricane.
Hey, TS. Good synopsis. If becoming a strong hurricane means increased potential to go out to sea after the Antilles, I say go Chantal, especially if it also means the weak side gets presented to Hispaniola. Right now I still see a lot going for the forecast track, unfortunately.
the possible dorian is about to exit africa, the waves in front of it are trying to clear space for him
3398. Murko
Now we have winds of zero mph in North Eleuthera :D
Quoting 3371. IceSlater:
You all see the 06z runs of the GFDL and HWRF? They both are now showing intensification in the Bahamas and a sharp left. That realistic?
Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen!
Who said something about the 8am models being out? Those model runs aren't even started until 11am. By 8am models I assume you're talking about the 06Z models (which is 2am EDT)?
Hey all -
Returned from our walk this morning hot and sweaty. No breeze, around 75% humidity. NWS upped rain chance from 30 to 50% (WU still holding at 30%), but we'll see. In the meantime, Good Morning!

6:32 am (10:32 GMT)



This Yellow-crowned Night Heron was kind enough to let me get only a couple of feet away to snap this. Looks like he's being smart and keeping one eye on Chantal...
when Katrina formed in the Bahamas, she had a large ridge build north of her that not only turned her west, but acutally WSW before she went around it...
Quoting 3398. Murko:
Now we have winds of zero mph in North Eleuthera :D


Mark the potential COC there...............Thanks for the reports; keep them coming.
Quoting 3386. MadinBoy:
We 've got strong wind in Martinique FWI , 40 to 50nds with rain !!!

Lamentin , Martinique FWI just now !
Did you take this? Good shot, if so... just stay safe!
I looks like the eye of Chantal is passing through the channel between st lucia and Martinique. the wind in st lucia is very calm, and the atmosphere is very still and warm
What is the HH max winds at the center.
Chantal.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 13:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2013
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 12:57:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°56'N 60°42'W (13.9333N 60.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 20 miles (31 km) to the ESE (104°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 70kts (From the ESE at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 364m (1,194ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 366m (1,201ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 12:41:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Quoting 3401. mikatnight:
Hey all -
Returned from our walk this morning hot and sweaty. No breeze, around 75% humidity. NWS upped rain chance from 30 to 50% (WU still holding at 30%), but we'll see. In the meantime, Good Morning!

6:32 am (10:32 GMT)



This Yellow-crowned Night Heron was kind enough to let me get only a couple of feet away to snap this. Looks like he's being smart and keeping one eye on Chantal...




re post from the mod last night



2740. whitewabit (Mod) 11:05 PM PDT on July 08, 2013
+0






During name storms .. keep comments on about the storm our the topic of Dr Msters Blog .. adhere to the rules of the road ..

Other off topic comments will not be tolerated ..

It would be a shame for a blogger to be unable to post during a storm ..
Quoting 3395. BahaHurican:
Hey, TS. Good synopsis. If becoming a strong hurricane means increased potential to go out to sea after the Antilles, I say go Chantal, especially if it also means the weak side gets presented to Hispaniola. Right now I still see a lot going for the forecast track, unfortunately.

Hey, good to see ya on here. Looks like Shear is weakening more than models was suggesting yesterday in the Caribbean (not unusual for shear forecast models) so a stronger system is likely!
What time is the flight into Chantal this morning?
Quoting 3352. CybrTeddy:
This storm annoys me. Yesterday it had a visual presentation of a 60mph storm, yet the recon only found a 50mph storm with 1010mph pressures. Today it has the visual presentation of a 45mph storm, and the recon is finding a 60mph TS with 1003mb pressures.

I knew you would be annoyed by her, just wait until she gets near Hispaniola,and the terrain impacts her.
Quoting 3402. louisianaweatherguy:
when Katrina formed in the Bahamas, she had a large ridge build north of her that not only turned her west, but acutally WSW before she went around it...


Unfortunately, the NHC kept saying it was going due west when it clearly wasn't. I've often wondered about that. If it did what the NHC was saying, we would have gotten a direct hit - with only an 18 hour hurricane warning to boot.
Rain has started in Barbados, the core of convection behind Chantal affecting us now, not much wind or thunder & lightening

All clear not given as yet.

Looking towards the strong wave behind, should be tagged soon
Quoting 3401. mikatnight:
Hey all -
Returned from our walk this morning hot and sweaty. No breeze, around 75% humidity. NWS upped rain chance from 30 to 50% (WU still holding at 30%), but we'll see. In the meantime, Good Morning!

6:32 am (10:32 GMT)



This Yellow-crowned Night Heron was kind enough to let me get only a couple of feet away to snap this. Looks like he's being smart and keeping one eye on Chantal...
Very nice...
3416. Murko
Quoting 3367. BahaHurican:
Hey, Murko... wondered if I would see u in today... looks like the NW Bahamas is going to get the worst of this ULL... I'm not liking the idea of rain upon rain [w/ whatever comes of Chantal in our neck of the woods by the weekend]. And as I feared, it looks like whatever Independence festivities are likely to be rained out :o(


Hey Baha. I'm here every day in Lurk Mode :) Supposed to be sailing over to Harbour Island tomorrow evening for the fireworks. Hoping it will clear out by then. Not liking the new forecast for Chantal. Hope Hispaniola can do its job, but not cause too much trouble there. We don't need three direct hits in three years, thanks very much.
Quoting 3411. congaline:
What time is the flight into Chantal this morning?
I think their actually going home.
Quoting 3411. congaline:
What time is the flight into Chantal this morning?




there in there now
I am falling victim to the "Bad Monkey" syndrome, where Tropical Systems with wimpy names get ignored and then go on to shred the Bahamas.(and miss Miami)
Chantal? Really?

the blob over the Bahamas now has my attention.
Quoting 3390. weathermanwannabe:
The biggest potential problem with Chantal, down the line after Hispanola, is finding very favorable conditions East of Florida and getting a bump from the Gulf Stream leading to a rapid intensification event.

Pure speculation at the moment but not outside the realm of possibilities.............A very tricky forecast either way both as to potential track and intensity in the longer term.


Wow this is getting really interesting now. It has time to get its act together an become a Hurricane before DR then as ti moves into the Bahamas it will slow down tremendously as the trough moves out and steering currents are weak then why I dont think it will get that far north by Central Florida which is probably why the models are shifting further south. Our ULL should be in the gulf by then will ventilate the storm and allow for possible rapid intensification just east or southeast of South Florida then the high quickly build in and the storm still moving slowly back to the east coast of Florida will continue to strengthen a scenario very similar to Jeanne and Katrina the difference is it just JULY.
I wonder what the NHC will say at their next advisory.
Quoting 3419. biff4ugo:
I am falling victim to the "Bad Monkey" syndrome, where Tropical Systems with wimpy names get ignored and then go on to shred the Bahamas.(and miss Miami)
Chantal? Really?

the blob over the Bahamas now has my attention.



that blob wont be doing any thing its a cold core ULL
3409 -

I was ambushed! Shoulda known you were lurkin around there someplace, Taz!

Have a great day...gotta go do stuff.
Quoting 3419. biff4ugo:
I am falling victim to the "Bad Monkey" syndrome, where Tropical Systems with wimpy names get ignored and then go on to shred the Bahamas.(and miss Miami)
Chantal? Really?

the blob over the Bahamas now has my attention.
The models show it slowing down and then getting pushed into Florida by the building ridge.
3425. 62901IL
Good morning.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL
REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES
OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY
AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS.
ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.
Quoting 3410. TampaSpin:

Hey, good to see ya on here. Looks like Shear is weakening more than models was suggesting yesterday in the Caribbean (not unusual for shear forecast models) so a stronger system is likely!
I am not liking anything about this track, nor about model consistency into the Bahamas. The uncertainty about the latter part of the track is also not happy making.

Anyway, I gotta run... got to get out of here by ten... ya'll keep an eye on Chantal for me... and hopefully I will be able to check in later in the day.

Mean while, overcast, cool and rainy over New Providence so far this morning; looks like a messy day all round.
Quoting 3400. boltdwright:
Who said something about the 8am models being out? Those model runs aren't even started until 11am. By 8am models I assume you're talking about the 06Z models (which is 2am EDT)?


My Scratch Pad Prediction.....LOL

3429. Bubu77
Rafales violentes en Martinique Chantal est bien là !!
Quoting 3413. mikatnight:


Unfortunately, the NHC kept saying it was going due west when it clearly wasn't. I've often wondered about that. If it did what the NHC was saying, we would have gotten a direct hit - with only an 18 hour hurricane warning to boot.
Maybe they don't want to face the fact of a TS entering the Eastern gulf.
Quoting 3418. Tazmanian:




there in there now

Thanks! Can't wait to see what they find.
Second recon pass has a 1010 mb pressure. What the??
Quoting 3427. FIUStormChaser:




There we go the 8am models is just updated on the WU and now the GFS taking it over South Florida along with some others.
3434. 7544
Quoting 3421. HurricaneAndre:
I wonder what the NHC will say at their next advisory.


anyone see a cone shift at 11 am ?
Quoting 3431. congaline:

Thanks! Can't wait to see what they find.




you may be a little too late i think there going home



but here what they found this AM

000
URNT12 KNHC 091308
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/12:57:20Z
B. 13 deg 56 min N
060 deg 42 min W
C. NA
D. 55 kt
E. 062 deg 42 nm
F. 118 deg 70 kt
G. 060 deg 47 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 20 C / 364 m
J. 23 C / 366 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 060/47 12:41:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Quoting 3432. WPBHurricane05:
Second recon pass has a 1010 mb pressure. What the??
I'dk.
Torrential rains and pretty serious thunder from the edge of the ULL here in Little Exuma. Wind has been out of the ENE for the last few days now its due north.
Quoting 3419. biff4ugo:
I am falling victim to the "Bad Monkey" syndrome, where Tropical Systems with wimpy names get ignored and then go on to shred the Bahamas.(and miss Miami)
Chantal? Really?

the blob over the Bahamas now has my attention.
Obviously you don't know any Chantals, Shantells or pple of similar names... some of the feistiest, most contrary females you have ever met... in the most lady-like possible way, of course...
Quoting 3432. WPBHurricane05:
Second recon pass has a 1010 mb pressure. What the??


Didn't get the same fix as they did last pass, pressures are around 1003mb, winds up to 60-66mph.
3440. Levi32
I have no reasonable explanation for why the pressure was 7mb lower on the previous pass. The plane did ascend during the last penetration, which may have distorted the values. We'll see on the next fly-through in a few minutes.

It is worth noting that the lesser Antilles aren't reporting anything below 1012mb.

is that a eye on the rader that am seeing on the weather CH?
Quoting 3437. ExumaMET:
Torrential rains and pretty serious thunder from the edge of the ULL here in Little Exuma. Wind has been out of the ENE for the last few days now its due north.


A believe a surface circulation is forming with the ULL in the Bahamas.

Next stop for Chantal after clearing the Antilles this morning is Hispanola in around 24 hours. Have to see how she does over this period and whether she is able to reach high-grade TS status.
3444. 62901IL
Quoting 3443. weathermanwannabe:
Next stop for Chantal after clearing the Antilles this morning is Hispanola in around 24 hours. Have to see how she does over this period and whether she is able to reach high-grade TS status.

OK. Let's see...
3445. RTLSNK
Quoting 3429. Bubu77:
Rafales violentes en Martinique Chantal est bien là !!


"Violent gusts in Martinique Chantal is there!"
3446. help4u
If the pressure is 1010,it will soon be an open wave.
3447. 62901IL
Quoting 3445. RTLSNK:


"Violent gusts in Martinique Chantal is there!"

Thanks for translating!
3448. Matt74
Quoting 3442. FIUStormChaser:


A believe a surface circulation is forming with the ULL in the Bahamas.
Wouldn't that throw everybody for a loop...
Quoting 3427. FIUStormChaser:




Ahh, I was referring to the dynamic models. I guess statistical models and simple dynamic models like the BAM go out at 8:00am because they don't take long to calculate.
Quoting 3446. help4u:
If the pressure is 1010,it will soon be an open wave.




no it wont
Quoting 3437. ExumaMET:
Torrential rains and pretty serious thunder from the edge of the ULL here in Little Exuma. Wind has been out of the ENE for the last few days now its due north.
We saw a shift to the NE last night [those car flags are good for something, yes... lol]

Hope we don't get too soggy with this... not with Chantal on the way...
This is not a graphic we want to see heading toward land. Soulik now projected to max out as a CAT 4.

3454. SLU
Martinique:

ENE @ 35mph with gusts to 47mph

Quoting 3449. boltdwright:


Ahh, I was referring to the dynamic models. I guess statistical models and simple dynamic models like the BAM go out at 8:00am because they don't take long to calculate.


Exactly with more info into the model they have shifted south as a result.
3456. 7544
Quoting 3442. FIUStormChaser:


A believe a surface circulation is forming with the ULL in the Bahamas.



yeap is it did good at dmax is it still moving west seems stuck there tia some people said it was dying last night surpise !
Quoting 3453. unknowncomic:
This is not a graphic we want to see heading toward land. Soulik now projected to max out as a CAT 4.

It is in my belief that,that is not a 95mph storm..
Recon should be going in for a second pass.
Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM JST, Typhoon Soulik (950 hPa) located at 20.3N 138.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.5N 133.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.8N 128.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.5N 123.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) near Yaeyama Island
I don't think the 1010 mb reading was the center. Looks to be north of Saint Lucia based on radar.
Quoting 3442. FIUStormChaser:


A believe a surface circulation is forming with the ULL in the Bahamas.




Uh, that would be a negative dude.
not even a hint of a north wind on ASCAT near supposed COC.
Quoting 3448. Matt74:
Wouldn't that throw everybody for a loop...


It would as anything that develops from the ULL will cross over into the gulf, this we will have one system in the gulf, and Chantal making landfall on Florida, plus a possible Dorian in the MDR.... In July.

Looking at the floater wv loop (below) it is pretty obvious that she ingested a nice gulp of dry air. It will take a little bit of time to recover from that and rebuild the moisture near the coc.

Link
Quoting 3458. Hurricanes305:
Recon should be going in for a second pass.
no their done for this morning.
Gotta get on the road... Expect I will see a new blog by the time I get back on... later all! And stay safe down in the Antilles, my friends...
3466. Grothar
Doc will be coming on soon and knocking all our stuff off.

GFS models now have Chantal moving into South Florida.



2013JUL09 130100
CI: 6.0
6.0 (Initial) 6.1 (Adjusted) 6.9 (Raw)
EYE
20.4N 137.8E

---

115 knots
Recon has changed elevation to 5,000ft. I'm still wondering how the pressure could be 7mb higher on the second pass than the first. 1010mb seems more realistic to me, but everything looked good on the 1003mb reading so I don't know...
I give thanks that Barbados has been spared again, some people in this island needs to do the same. If a lot of people prepare for hurricane season at the beginning of the year instead of waiting until a system is on our doorstep,you would have less complaints. There are more systems in the Atlantic that look promising.The way life goes some people may be crying before the end of this week,be grateful.
neo going to have a field day after this rash of tropical activity is done.
Quoting 3460. WPBHurricane05:
I don't think the 1010 mb reading was the center. Looks to be north of Saint Lucia based on radar.



recon found 1008mb


14.167N 60.850W 842.7 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,572 meters
(~ 5,157 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg
Quoting 3461. boltdwright:


Uh, that would be a negative dude.
not even a hint of a north wind on ASCAT near supposed COC.


Vorticity has grown stronger in the past 12 hours, and some aspects of a circulation are being noted and present on satelite, previously it occurred in the upper to mid levels but with shear decreasing, it does appear to be heading in the direction of working its way down to the surface. While it may not be present, it could occur as we have seen time and time before.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 3467. HadesGodWyvern:
2013JUL09 130100
CI: 6.0
6.0 (Initial) 6.1 (Adjusted) 6.9 (Raw)
EYE
20.4N 137.8E

---

115 knots

This is the storm of the year so far:

Quoting 3466. Grothar:
Doc will be coming on soon and knocking all our stuff off.

GFS models now have Chantal moving into South Florida.





You're a psychic.

Or you're actually Dr. Masters.......
3476. Kyon5
Quoting 3471. Tazmanian:



recon found 1008mb


14.167N 60.850W 842.7 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,572 meters
(~ 5,157 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg
Yeah, it looks like they're heading for the actual center. According to the Barbados radar, it is just south of Martinique.
Quoting 3474. MAweatherboy1:

This is the storm of the year so far:



Agree, worldwide so far.
Well the ascat pass can show what it wants, but the wind right now in NE Dade is light and out of the N to NW what you would expect if a low was to the east. Probably just a local effect but interesting. Some cool air is being mixed down because the breeze is a little cool for this time of year. Surface winds have changed significantly last 12 hrs.
Quoting 3478. gordydunnot:
Well the ascat pass can show what it wants, but the wind right now in NE Dade is light and out of the N to NW what you would expect if a low was to the east. Probably just a local effect but interesting. Some cool air is being mixed down because the breeze is a little cool for this time of year. Surface winds have changed significantly last 12 hrs.
wind seems to be stronger in the NE quandrant of shantal. recon constantly finding winds above 60 mph. looks like it will be just short of a minimal hurricane in the next advisory
3481. hydrus
Quoting 3466. Grothar:
Doc will be coming on soon and knocking all our stuff off.

GFS models now have Chantal moving into South Florida.



We talked quite a bit about how this pattern would materialize..This may be a rough year for Florida and a lot of other folks.
Looks like next flight is late tonight
3483. GetReal
It appears that there may be a possible new COC forming under the convection near 26.3N and 79.3W.

The spin to the north not as strong as earlier.