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Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormTracker2K:


That spin has been around for a few days but seems to be getting better organized now. This could become an invest if it can continue to organize some more.

I agree.
1002. wxmod
Quoting Gearsts:
Also normal for this time of the year. Nov 2007 similar conditions to june and the dust storm travel all the way across the atlantic.


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal. Anyway, my point with displaying Sahara dust is that hurricanes need clean air to form. If the air is muddy, the temperature difference between sea level and the top of the atmosphere is less, so there is less lift and therefore less cumulus buildup. The atmosphere is becoming stagnant.
Quoting MTWX:


We've been watching it ever since it came off the AL Coast a few days ago... Just a weak surface low that has been bringing rain/storms to Florida yesterday and today.

Now if it keeps it's spin up after it crosses FL to the Atlantic side, it may have a chance.


I think this may stay in the Gulf as the door has closed on this crossing FL as a high is trying to build in from the Mid Atlantic.

We gotses ourselves a HURRICANE
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 50, 60, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 30, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
Quoting StormTracker2K:


1.71" but that is on top of now 9.68" for the month of June and 15" of rain since mid May. Power was out by me yesterday for about 2 to 3 hours as there were several trees on powerlines.
You've had a pretty active month of so down there.  I seen that you said you had 70 mph wind.  It's been so long I have almost forgot what thunder and lightning sound and look like...sigh...lol
Anyway I see that low level circulation south of Panama City isn't naked anymore.  Something that surely needs to be watched today.
Quoting wxmod:


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal...


Quick correction. 2007 had the lowest ice extent (almost beaten last year). Ice volume has been dropping pretty much every year for some time now.

Last year is the current record holder for lowest ice volume, and so far this year looks like it will easily beat 2011 for lowest ice volume.
1007. yqt1001
And here is why we have a hurricane:

15/1145 UTC 13.6N 95.5W T4.0/4.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific
1008. yqt1001
Though I'm not sure how long we'll have a minimal category1 hurricane for...

06z GFS

Link
This is interesting...

wow
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is interesting...

Quoting StormTracker2K:
looks like the MJO is goning to be thru the end of June.




Morning All.

Personally thinking we'll get two systems out of this MJO pulse. One in the NW Caribbean/Gulf region and one in the Western Atlantic towards the end of the month.
1014. wxmod
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Quick correction. 2007 had the lowest ice extent (almost beaten last year). Ice volume has been dropping pretty much every year for some time now.

Last year is the current record holder for lowest ice volume, and so far this year looks like it will easily beat 2011 for lowest ice volume.


Thanks for the correction. I didn't look it up before I commented.
1015. yqt1001
It seems like every EPac storm has a 50/50 chance of RI.



Possibly for a 3rd time in 12 months Mexico will be threatened by a MH (Jova, Bud and Carlotta?), which is amazing considering they get landfalls so rarely on the EPac side.
1016. ncstorm
Looks like two storms in the GOM at the same time??
1018. wxmod
Typhoon Guchol is on track for Fukushima. But don't be surprised if the Japanese bust up this storm before it gets there.
Has anyone seen Levi?
Carlotta



Guchol

Quoting wxmod:
Typhoon Guchol is on track for Fukushima. But don't be surprised if the Japanese bust up this storm before it gets there.

You mean intentionally destroy it?
Carlotta is going to make landfall in 7 hrs. if it dosnt change it speed and direction real fast. Doesn't it look that way to all of you?

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Carlotta



Guchol



Just goes to show what a strong MJO pulse can do.
Gulf is very conducive to RI when wind shear is low.
Definitely looking interesting.



Relatively low shear environment too.

Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Yikes at this inactivity, I really didn't want this year to be another bust like 2006/2009...


Yeah, that would be horrible. No oil platforms threatened, no major impact on our economy, no catastrophic damage, no life's lost. Yeah, what a bummer that would be.
Quoting wxmod:


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal. Anyway, my point with displaying Sahara dust is that hurricanes need clean air to form. If the air is muddy, the temperature difference between sea level and the top of the atmosphere is less, so there is less lift and therefore less cumulus buildup. The atmosphere is becoming stagnant.
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.
Either Arctic Ice was growing in volume before 1979 or the current tools they use to measure the ice were not available before that time?
New microwave of Guchol



1030. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

You mean intentionally destroy it?

That is what I meant. Watch the storm carefully.
Quoting wxmod:

That is what I meant. Watch the storm carefully.

Cool. How would the Japanese achieve this? Can we get that technology over in the states to stop a category 5 from barreling down on Miami...?
Quoting belizeit:
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.

Arcitc sea ice extent has plummeted in the last few weeks, well below 2007

1033. wxmod
Quoting belizeit:
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.


Scary thought, isn't it. Once the ice cube is gone, anything can happen.
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Has anyone seen Levi?
Maybe he got banned for posting his website on his blogg or he is enjoying his own site more then this one.
Quoting wxmod:


Scary thought, isn't it. Once the ice cube is gone, anything can happen.

Has the Arctic even been ice free before?
He isn't banned look at the current time....probably asleep!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New microwave of Guchol




Pinhole!
Good morning everyone.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
You've had a pretty active month of so down there.  I seen that you said you had 70 mph wind.  It's been so long I have almost forgot what thunder and lightning sound and look like...sigh...lol
Anyway I see that low level circulation south of Panama City isn't naked anymore.  Something that surely needs to be watched today.


Maybe you get some rain today. There was a nasty line of storms from MN to the Texas/Mexico border.

1039. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Cool. How would the Japanese achieve this?


Not cool at all. Weather modification is big, big business. If you pay close attention to the satellite photos, maybe you'll be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the rockets they seed with. Aluminum oxide falling through the atmosphere does wonders.
CARLOTTA's eye now visible from the Puerto Angel Radar
Link
What part of a busy does he not have? lol
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
He isn't banned look at the current time....probably asleep!

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
ON APPROACH
03E/H/C/C1
MARK
13.33N/95.43W
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.


Quoting wxmod:


Not cool at all. Weather modification is big, big business. If you pay close attention to the satellite photos, maybe you'll be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the rockets they seed with. Aluminum oxide falling through the atmosphere does wonders.

Sounds cool to me. Let's stop hurricanes now. Let's stop destruction.

*snicker*
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.

Thank you!
1048. MTWX
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is interesting...



Hope that doesn't pan out! Scheduled to be fishing in Biloxi that weekend!
Quoting wxmod:


Not cool at all. Weather modification is big, big business. If you pay close attention to the satellite photos, maybe you'll be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the rockets they seed with. Aluminum oxide falling through the atmosphere does wonders.

The problem with this is that, when the Japanese try to avoid this disaster, it will result in several other disasters in other parts of the world. You don't mess with the atmosphere!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



I don't think that's a tropical low.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Whoa baby! Getting it's act together say me.
1053. Grothar
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.

XXL/AOI/XX
1055. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Sounds cool to me. Let's stop hurricanes now. Let's stop destruction.

*snicker*


Problem is, you won't end destruction. Hurricanes are a necessary part of the atmosphere. Stagnation is at the opposite end of the spectrum. That's where we're heading.
1056. Patrap
Blob-ation?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The problem with this is that, when the Japanese try to avoid this disaster, it will result in several other disasters in other parts of the world. You don't mess with the atmosphere!

Don't listen to him... The Japanese cannot and will not do anything to affect this storm. The high shear and cooler waters it will encounter will affect it, but it will still pack a major punch and there's nothing Japan can do about it.
1058. Patrap


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XXL/AOI/XX


I think the invest tag goes up on this over the next 12 to 24 hours. Looks impressive on visible image you posted.
1060. MTWX
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.


Actually it would be 5:41 am...

Alaska has its own time zone.
Quoting wxmod:


Problem is, you won't end destruction. Hurricanes are a necessary part of the atmosphere. Stagnation is at the opposite end of the spectrum. That's where we're heading.

Don't hurricanes transport heat to the poles or something? Please correct me if I am mistaken. Don't they also provide drought relief to rain stricken areas as well?


EVENT DETECTED
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...
Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905 (h/t Walt Bennett, Jr.):
The North West Passage was done.
My boyhood dream - at that moment it was accomplished. A strange
feeling welled up in my throat; I was somewhat over-strained and worn -
it was weakness in me - but I felt tears in my eyes. 'Vessel in sight' ... Vessel in sight.
Yes,
ladies and gentlemen, this Passage was clear enough of ice for a wooden
sailboat, with a crew of seven, to successfully navigate it more than
100 years ago. How many times in the history of the planet do you think a
similar - or even more ice-free - condition existed in this area? Not that the media cares, but this Passage was also conquered several times in the 1940s (emphasis added):
Built
for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Force to serve as a supply ship
for isolated, far-flung Arctic RCMP detachments, St. Roch was also
designed to serve when frozen in for the winter, as a floating
detachment, with its constables mounting dog sled patrols from the ship.
Between 1929 and 1939 St. Roch made three voyages to the Arctic. Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942. St. Roch was the second ship to make the passage, and the first to travel the passage from west to east. In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days. The epic voyages of St. Roch
demonstrated Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic during the difficult
wartime years, and extended Canadian control over its vast northern
territories.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/0 9/09/reports-record-arctic-ice-melt-disgracefully- ignore-history#ixzz1xs0HZK6C
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Has the Arctic even been ice free before?

New advisory on Guchol is out. It is at 90kts (105mph) and forecast to make Cat 4 intensity before weakening as it heads into Tokyo still as a hurricane

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...


If anything this may sit in the Gulf and drift around for several days.

1067. Grothar
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


EVENT DETECTED

Small event



That sunspot is a monster though... It's the size of Jupiter.
1069. etxwx
Small Earthquake in North Texas
"CLEBURNE, Texas (AP) - Experts said North Texas has had a 3.1-magnitude earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake happened just after 2 a.m. Friday. USGS said the earthquake was centered 11 miles north-northeast of Cleburne, or about 16 miles south of Fort Worth. No damage or injuries were immediately reported."

There have been a number of small quakes in that general area lately. It's a bit unusual.

Quoting Grothar:
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.



afternoon you blob forecaster

when ya coming back or are ya back already

Quoting Grothar:
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.

models forecasted cat 3 will close to the coast when it gets there seems
Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.

1073. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models forecasted cat 3 will close to the coast when it gets there seems


See, I was right again.
blob in W carib
models such as the CMC, GFS, NOGAP, NAM, and a couple of others do forecast a low in the area
Pat, plane is on route.

URNT15 KNHC 151354
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 07 20120615
134630 2726N 09143W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 299018 019 004 001 05
134700 2724N 09144W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 303018 019 003 002 05
134730 2723N 09146W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 304019 020 002 001 01
134800 2721N 09148W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 301020 020 002 000 01
134830 2719N 09150W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 300019 020 003 001 05
134900 2717N 09151W 3598 08320 0396 -240 -240 300019 019 003 001 01
134930 2715N 09153W 3597 08323 0397 -240 -240 297019 019 003 001 01
135000 2713N 09155W 3597 08324 0397 -240 -240 299019 020 004 000 01
135030 2711N 09157W 3597 08324 0397 -230 -230 301019 019 002 000 01
135100 2709N 09158W 3598 08320 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 005 000 01
135130 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 003 001 01
135200 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0397 -230 -230 303020 020 007 000 01
135230 2703N 09204W 3599 08319 0396 -230 -230 305019 019 007 000 01
135300 2701N 09205W 3598 08322 0398 -230 -230 306019 020 004 001 01
135330 2659N 09207W 3597 08324 0398 -230 -230 303020 021 008 001 01
135400 2657N 09209W 3599 08321 0398 -230 -230 301021 022 008 001 01
135430 2655N 09211W 3597 08326 0399 -230 -230 300023 024 005 001 05
135500 2653N 09212W 3598 08322 0399 -230 -230 299022 023 003 001 01
135530 2651N 09214W 3598 08323 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 001 01
135600 2650N 09216W 3598 08326 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 000 01
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.



Claudette?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think that's a tropical low.


Yeah and I wouldn't worry about it turning tropical until it gets cut off around Bermuda early next week.:)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Claudette?


Thank you. That's it.


1080. Walshy
NC House votes to legalize fracking
Form of natural gas drilling approved 66-43


RALEIGH, N.C. - The North Carolina House has approved a form of natural gas drilling critics say will contaminate groundwater.

The drilling method known as fracking was endorsed by a 66-43 vote in the House on Thursday evening. The measure has sped through the Legislature in less than two weeks, and the bill now returns to the Senate for consideration of minor amendments.

The hydraulic fracturing drilling method involves injecting a drilled well with chemicals, water and sand at high speed to break up shale rock deep underground and free trapped natural gas. Environmentalists worry the drilling has not been thoroughly studied and could lead to groundwater contamination, earthquakes and flammable drinking water. Supporters say the bill will help the state harvest domestic energy and create new jobs.


Read more: http://www.wxii12.com/news/local-news/north-caroli na/NC-House-votes-to-legalize-fracking/-/10622650/ 14866834/-/5c7nxvz/-/index.html#ixzz1xs41Xww5
Reminds me a little of TD 5 of 2010 on the second loop.

Tropical Depression 5 2010




Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think the invest tag goes up on this over the next 12 to 24 hours. Looks impressive on visible image you posted.
I think we will see one before the end of the day for sure, especially if those thunderstorms maintain.  That will be the key to it getting tagged.  
Would be interesting if Tampa was menaced from the NW instead of the SW.
Lots of dinosaur bones and footprints there, hmmm.
Quoting etxwx:
Small Earthquake in North Texas
"CLEBURNE, Texas (AP) - Experts said North Texas has had a 3.1-magnitude earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake happened just after 2 a.m. Friday. USGS said the earthquake was centered 11 miles north-northeast of Cleburne, or about 16 miles south of Fort Worth. No damage or injuries were immediately reported."

There have been a number of small quakes in that general area lately. It's a bit unusual.


Quoting ILwthrfan:

I think we will see one before the end of the day for sure, especially if those thunderstorms maintain.  That will be the key to it getting tagged.  

That low isn't tropical at all though, lol. They have no reason to tag it.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



Looks more like an MCS to me.
1087. MTWX
ELECTRIC-BLUE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: Data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show that noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are like a great "geophysical light bulb." They turn on every year in late spring, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. News flash: The bulb is glowing. Flying photographer Brian Whittaker photographed these NLCs over Canada on June 13th:





"I was very happy to see my first noctilucent clouds of 2012," says Whittaker. "They were visible to the north for about 3 hours as we flew between Ottawa and Newfoundland at 35,000 feet."

These electric-blue clouds are hanging 85 km above Earth's surface, at the edge of space itself. Their origin is still largely a mystery; various theories associate them with space dust, rocket exhaust, global warming--or some mixture of the three. One thing is sure. They're baaack ... for the summer of 2012.

Observing tips: NLCs favor high latitudes, although they have been sighted as far south as Colorado and Virginia. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.

Quoting jeffs713:

Looks more like an MCS to me.




Hey it looks more impressive than Bonnie from a couple years back.lol:p
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Small event



That sunspot is a monster though... It's the size of Jupiter.

I'm personally thankful that sunspot #1504 is showing a proclivity for popping off long-duration events, rather than quick ones. The long-duration flare yesterday, if compressed into a quick flare, would have easily reached X status.
Quoting cheaterwon:




Hey it looks more impressive than Bonnie from a couple years back.lol:p

That's not hard.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That low isn't tropical at all though, lol. They have no reason to tag it.
That thing was only a naked swirl over Mobile two days ago.  It has been lingering for two days now in Gulf of Mexico which is loaded with heat and moisture and is also on a tail end of a front, which at this time of year is climatology favored spot for development.  While it may have not started with tropical characteristics it certainly has taken a few steps toward it.  There is absolutely no reason at all why it can't make that transition in the conditions its in.
I agree with you all too! Nothing to worry about just an MCS!
Quoting Grothar:
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.



This maybe Rapid Intensification
I'm very interested in what the NHC will do with the intensity of Carlotta at 11AM... 12z best track said 75mph but it's obviously strengthened since then... I'd say that has winds of about 90mph right now.



I'm going to go with 80 kts for the next advisory on Carlotta. I also think she could make major status if she continues this RI trend.
Quoting ILwthrfan:

That thing was only a naked swirl over Mobile two days ago.  It has been lingering for two days now in Gulf of Mexico which is loaded with heat and moisture and is also on a tail end of a front, which at this time of year is climatology favored spot for development.  While it may have not started with tropical characteristics it certainly has taken a few steps toward it.  There is absolutely no reason at all why it can't make that transition in the conditions its in.


and it would more likely be an Mesoscale convective vortex more thananything. The nhc should just circle it and say near 0 % because of the reasons you stated
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm very interested in what the NHC will do with the intensity of Carlotta at 11AM... 12z best track said 75mph but it's obviously strengthened since then... I'd say that has winds of about 90mph right now.



She's rather large, MAWxBoy. Do you know how far out her hurricane force wind radius extents to?
1099. yqt1001
Carlotta is no doubt going to be a bad storm...EPac hurricane landfalls are rare enough.



It's almost too late for her to pull a Don and Mexico only receives EPac hurricane landfalls once every 5 years or so.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm very interested in what the NHC will do with the intensity of Carlotta at 11AM... 12z best track said 75mph but it's obviously strengthened since then... I'd say that has winds of about 90mph right now.



What are the T numbers?
Quoting InconvenientStorm:


She's rather large, MAWxBoy. Do you know how far out her hurricane force wind radius extents to?

She is quite large for sure... We don't really have any way of knowing yet because she's still a TS as of the last advisory... We'll know in half an hour when the 11AM advisory is out.
1102. hydrus
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm going to go with 80 kts for the next advisory on Carlotta. I also think she could make major status if she continues this RI trend.
I suspected that she would become a major( water is very warm ), but she will have to do it rather quickly as she is nearing land.
Quoting fireflymom:
Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905 (h/t Walt Bennett, Jr.):
The North West Passage was done.
My boyhood dream - at that moment it was accomplished. A strange
feeling welled up in my throat; I was somewhat over-strained and worn -
it was weakness in me - but I felt tears in my eyes. 'Vessel in sight' ... Vessel in sight.
Yes,
ladies and gentlemen, this Passage was clear enough of ice for a wooden
sailboat, with a crew of seven, to successfully navigate it more than
100 years ago. How many times in the history of the planet do you think a
similar - or even more ice-free - condition existed in this area? Not that the media cares, but this Passage was also conquered several times in the 1940s (emphasis added):
Built
for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Force to serve as a supply ship
for isolated, far-flung Arctic RCMP detachments, St. Roch was also
designed to serve when frozen in for the winter, as a floating
detachment, with its constables mounting dog sled patrols from the ship.
Between 1929 and 1939 St. Roch made three voyages to the Arctic. Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942. St. Roch was the second ship to make the passage, and the first to travel the passage from west to east. In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days. The epic voyages of St. Roch
demonstrated Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic during the difficult
wartime years, and extended Canadian control over its vast northern
territories.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/0 9/09/reports-record-arctic-ice-melt-disgracefully- ignore-history#ixzz1xs0HZK6C



Action:
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Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 414

It pays to realize, of course, that the Northwest Passage wasn't exactly "open" for Amundsen's voyage through it; the trip took him and his crew nearly three years, much of that time with the ship stuck fast in ice. And the route Amundsen chose was through a commercially-unviable set of shallows, which tend to melt earlier than the open sea.

The truth is--that is, the scientific truth--is that the Arctic hasn't had as little ice as it has now for at least 8,000 years--and possibly far, far longer than that.
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneCarlotta for 15June12pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from NWest at 9.8mph(15.8km/h) to NWest at 11.4mph(18.3km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 65knots(75mph)120km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 993millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Carlotta's path...
PNO is Pinotepa :: PXM is PuertoEscondido,0axaca :: HUX is Huatulco :: TAP is Tapachula

The dot on the bottom edge of the map is where Invest94E became TropicalDepression3E
The next dot NWest on the connected line-segment is where TD3E became TropicalStormCarlotta
The SEasternmost dot on the longest line-segment is where TS.Carlotta became HurricaneCarlotta and was its most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Carlotta's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The PXM-blob were the endpoints of the 15June12amGMT and 15June6amGMT straightline projections connected to their closest airport.
On 15June12pmGMT, H.Carlotta was headed toward passage between Lagunas de Chacahua and PuertoEscondido in ~15hours from now

Copy&paste pvr, zlo, 16.534n98.883w, pno, 15.939n97.282w-15.828n97.048w- pxm-15.916n97.190w, hux-15.688n96.332w, tap, mgsj, cun, 9.2n92.4w-9.8n92.9w, 9.8n92.9w-10.5n93.4w, 10.5n93.4w-11.4n94.0w, 11.4n94.0w-12.1n94.5w, 12.1n94.5w-12.8n95.0w, 12.8n95.0w-13.6n95.6w, 12.8n95.0w-15.939n97.381w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
1105. yqt1001
Quoting weatherh98:


What are the T numbers?


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.0mb/ 74.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -0.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Quoting weatherh98:


What are the T numbers?


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Link
Quoting InconvenientStorm:


She's rather large, MAWxBoy. Do you know how far out her hurricane force wind radius extents to?


technically its still a tropical storm but i would say 10-20 miles out
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.



Where do you think will be its pre-landfall?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.



Claudette.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Link


when were these last updated? because thats only like 82 mph
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.
1112. yqt1001
Quoting weatherh98:


when were these last updated? because thats only like 82 mph


1 hour ago:

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where do you think will be its pre-landfall?

way too early to say
Quoting weatherh98:


technically its still a tropical storm but i would say 10-20 miles out

I bet it's farther than that... It's a big storm with a big eye... Guchol is stronger but has a very tiny eye with hurricane winds extending out about 40 miles... Carlotta is weaker but bigger so I would say probably about the same as Guchol, 40 miles or so.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.


from like a 70 mph storm to an amazing cane
1116. hydrus
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...
Oh no ya dont..You have to eat the crow, not get b-slapped withit....mornin Dean..:)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.
How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns?  Little to none?  Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.
Their remnants

Main article: Mesoscale convective vortex
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a mid-level low-pressure center within an MCS that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex. Once the parent MCS dies, this vortex can persist and lead to future convective development. With a core only 30 miles (48 km) to 60 miles (97 km) and up to 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) deep,[33] an MCV can occasionally spawn a mesoscale surface low pressure area which appears on mesoscale surface weather analyses. But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to several days after its parent MCS has dissipated.[34] The orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, can serve as the nucleus for a tropical storm or hurricane.[35]
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I bet it's farther than that... It's a big storm with a big eye... Guchol is stronger but has a very tiny eye with hurricane winds extending out about 40 miles... Carlotta is weaker but bigger so I would say probably about the same as Guchol, 40 miles or so.


yes but this just became a hurricane
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.


Fortunate that the plane is on route and we will know how strong she is.
Quoting ILwthrfan:

How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns? Little to none? Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.

It will increase chances of landfall i think
What a beautiful storm:



Quoting ILwthrfan:

How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns?  Little to none?  Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.


HWRF has had a recent upgrade in resolution and is much more accurate this year than in recent, and it was calling for something like this to happen for days.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Their remnants

Main article: Mesoscale convective vortex
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a mid-level low-pressure center within an MCS that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex. Once the parent MCS dies, this vortex can persist and lead to future convective development. With a core only 30 miles (48 km) to 60 miles (97 km) and up to 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) deep,[33] an MCV can occasionally spawn a mesoscale surface low pressure area which appears on mesoscale surface weather analyses. But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to several days after its parent MCS has dissipated.[34] The orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, can serve as the nucleus for a tropical storm or hurricane.[35]


I said it was an MCV
Quoting weatherh98:


and it would more likely be an Mesoscale convective vortex more thananything. The nhc should just circle it and say near 0 % because of the reasons you stated


right der
This is the definition of pinhole

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the definition of pinhole



Rapid intensification on one storm and a pinhole on the other
What the heck happened to Carlotta last night?
Any stalled or semi-stationary MCV over the GOMEX bears watching as they can prove the basis for quick spin ups. None of the models with their resolutions would catch it given the size. Somewhat similar to how Claudette developed in that regard, although Claudette developed from a tropical wave off Tampa.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What the heck happened to Carlotta last night?

She got angry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the definition of pinhole



eye so small you cant see it
HWRF
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.
8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 15
Location: 14.0°N 96.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


More like what happened in the last hour and a half brah you have been missing it T numbers for around 80mph
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.


The tnumbers support 80 though
"CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST."
LOL the NHC earlier today "Rapid intensifcation seems unlikely now at this point"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST."


18 hours of rapid intensification? and only 85 kts? id say maybe cat 3 at the rate its going
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Any stalled or semi-stationary MCV over the GOMEX bears watching as they can prove the basis for quick spin ups. None of the models with their resolutions would catch it given the size. Somewhat similar to how Claudette developed in that regard, although Claudette developed from a tropical wave off Tampa.



I agree as most have considered the home brews to be the ones to watch out for this year. Dr. Masters said a few years back in a blog to be worried when "All" the models develop a storm and also when "None" of the models develop a storm. I don't know if you remember that or not as it was some time ago?
Quoting weatherh98:


The tnumbers support 80 though


And the #T for Alex in 2010 supported a 140mph Category 4. Recon is always better than satellite estimates.
Carlotta:

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And the #T for Alex in 2010 supported a 140mph Category 4. Recon is always better than satellite estimates.


Yes but what they have for the t numbers is what they put
Quoting weatherh98:


eye so small you cant see it

Or it could just be clouded over, too.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I agree as most have considered the home brews to be the ones to watch out for this year. Dr. Masters said a few years back in a blog to be worried when "All" the models develop and storm and also when "None" of the models develop a storm. I don't know if you remember that or not as it was some time ago?


I think I remember what you're talking about, and he's right too (I think it was Humberto), the small size of these cyclones makes it very difficult for the models to pick up such a small system with current resolution, giving us hardly any warning in advance when they do develop and not much idea where they will go, and if conditions are good - they can intensify rapidly.
Carlotta sure has grown up in the last few hours and the GOM appears to want to come out to play as well.
Hope everyone is enjoying their Friday.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.

yeah I am sure that 80mph and rapid intensifcation expected to continue yeah sure the NHC aun't going to have changes to update
you really must be drinking
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes but what they have for the t numbers is what they put

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.
Quoting jeffs713:

Or it could just be clouded over, too.


Thats more likely.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.


I agree..... im just saying they arent being conservative about it
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think I remember what you're talking about, and he's right too (I think it was Humberto), the small size of these cyclones makes it very difficult for the models to pick up such a small system with current resolution, giving us hardly any warning in advance when they do develop and not much idea where they will go, and if conditions are good - they can intensify rapidly.


I remember going to bed with a storm offshore and waking up to school cancelled due to Hurricane Humberto.
1155. hydrus
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What a beautiful storm:



I remember seeing a storm about 20 years ago in the Pacific. It truly was one of the coolest storms I ever saw. It was a large cat-3 or 4, out there by itself in all that Pacific emptiness. There was not a single cloud to be seen or had within 1500 miles of the thing, just clear blue ocean with magnificent powerful absolutely perfectly formed hurricane. I will never forget it. I have not been able to locate the sat pic. I thought its name was Danielle, but could not find it.
What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What a beautiful storm.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
.


why do you just put a period?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


not as pretty as you think... ugly betty... put it back on visible please haha
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??



they are heading out there now
Quoting weatherh98:


why do you just put a period?

I put a picture in...

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??

It'll take a little while, but I'm not sure exactly when.
Quoting weatherh98:


not as pretty as you think... ugly betty... put it back on visible please haha

Lol, they always look better on visible... Still with the execption of a slightly ragged eye it's a powerful storm.
TWC just mentioned the MCV in the tropical update, "we need to watch it"
Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?



Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?



Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.


The ADJ t# has it around 90mph
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.
The T #s are low because they are constrained by time. They are not taking into account the current rapid intensification. I just hope the residents in the path of the storm are prepared for the possibility of a major hurricane. Thankfully Carlotta isn't that large of a storm with hurricane force winds only extending out 25 miles, and TS force winds only 70 miles.
Good morning!

Carlotta has become a mean hurricane. Classic case of rapid intensification.

Amazing how fast she decided to wrap up.
1169. hydrus
I say Mexico has a serious flooding situation coming if the models are correct. at 30 hours.36 hours. And in three days still putting down a lot of rain,,Not good.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.

Remember, T numbers are great, but there is no subsitute for recon.
i think shes trying to sift out the rest of the dry air
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Has the Arctic even been ice free before?


"There is currently no scientific evidence that a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean existed anytime in the last 700,000 years, although there were periods when the Arctic was warmer than it is today."

Link
Quoting weatherh98:


The ADJ t# has it around 90mph


Look at the latest update:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:51:23 N Lon : 95:46:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : 6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

This will be a major hurricane soon I'm afraid.

Call me a hype man if you wish, but I've seen this before.

Look at this beautiful 37 gHz image from earlier today, which was a harbinger of this rapid intensification phase we are seeing:

Quoting StormTracker2K:


If anything this may sit in the Gulf and drift around for several days.



That low was forecast to track west along the coast over the next few days. We're expecting to get some rain from it here midweek sometime.
Carlotta is certainly undergoing rapid intensification, I think it will easily be a major hurricane. I didn't realize Guchol had a pinhole eye, I just thought it looked like a well organized tropical storm. They keep shifting Guchol's track to the East I think Japan might be spared.
Very serious problem for Mexico.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I put a picture in...


It'll take a little while, but I'm not sure exactly when.


Around 2 PM EDT.
1178. hydrus
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
Either Arctic Ice was growing in volume before 1979 or the current tools they use to measure the ice were not available before that time?


To look back into the past, researchers combine data and records from indirect sources known as proxy records. Researchers delved into shipping charts going back to the 1950s, which noted sea ice conditions. The data gleaned from those records, called the Hadley data set, show that Arctic sea ice has declined since at least the mid-1950s. Shipping records exist back to the 1700s, but do not provide complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean. However, taken together these records indicate that the current decline is unprecedented in the last several hundred years.



Link
Quoting weatherh98:


I agree..... im just saying they arent being conservative about it


Good Mourning, no 11am advisory in. it looks like NHC is in a state of panic
as their info are outdated and not much data from the Hurricane Hunters have come back yet and we have a rapidly intensifying cane as it enters its peak which could be a 120 mph cat 3. Hope for the sake of the Mexican people the NHC get it together so they can prepare for a much stronger storm. Also as it weakens close to land it may not weaken to a tropical storm as indicated by the 8am and turn back over water it could stay a hurricane and reintensify before making landfall again.

just think if the hurricane hunters flew in and found a 70mph TS I would say that is the most beautiful TS ever
Shear is decreasing in the Gulf.
Now


9 hrs ago.
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:

1184. hydrus
Eye is getting bigger.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:

time is running short
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:


Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.
I don't think that's an MCV in the NE GOM but merely a shortwave associated with the front expected to completely clear Florida tomorrow. Though when it catches up with the parent low(expected to break off west of Bermuda), this might bear some watching. If it develops, it'll either pull a Beryl or an Alberto next week.
1189. hydrus
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 13:54:15 N Lon : 95:49:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.4mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.7 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees
The Navy map has not been updated for Carlotta since she was at 10.5N/93.4W. Here's the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion which has her at 14N/96W: (excerpt and then link to page)

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.

THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.

AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Link NHC Carlotta Page
100mph?.we.will.know.shortly
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.

Definitely land interaction beginning to take hold. And it appears that combined with the dry air intrusion in that NE quad is chipping away toward her inner-core. Probably will disrupt the storm quite a bit.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.
I think it just looks lopsided because the storm is still developing. Dry air doesn't look to be a problem:

T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
ON APPROACH
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
13.33N/95.43W
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think it just looks lopsided because the storm is still developing. Dry air doesn't look to be a problem:


Agreed
1197. ncstorm




Wow..even inland its still strong
Yesterday Navy had her at 325 degrees.
This is also from 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Carlotta isn't very big.
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.


shes not quite full figured
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.
She's packin a punch though Ameister.
and huggin the coast looks to be unless something steers her into the mountains.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.


Ive heard that from people down there in mexico... sorry had too
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.

That's true.
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.
large bombs come in small packages
1199. Ameister12 11:23 AM EDT on June 15, 2012
Carlotta isn't very big.


Probably one of the reasons She is intentifiying so rapidly at the moment. Those "little" storms (think Andrew in 92) respond really quickly to pressure drops at the center of circulation if the environment becomes really favorable; a lot less mileage and space to wrap around the coc.
Carlotta~ Nice eye..maybe starting rapid intensification..



Here's Dvorak # page. Down to 972mb.

Carlotta TRMM pass very large quicktime.
Just misses the eye but shows the heavy rain that is coming for MX.

That's a good one, Keeper.

According to this, SST's are 30C...
LinkWVLoopFloater
Quoting islander101010:
100mph?.we.will.know.shortly


My estimate is based on satellite imagery is Carlotta have an eye which is still clearing out at this hour and its building an eye wall the system is rapidly developing so around a 100mph.
That eyewall has gotten rather ragged looking. The northern eyewall has opened and will allow convection to wane even more. I'd say a 95 mph storm...probably peaking now. Now will probably level off and if she isn't impacted completely by the land interaction.
I'm out for a bit... I bet recon finds winds of about 100mph

Quoting Skyepony:
Carlotta~ Nice eye..maybe starting rapid intensification..



Here's Dvorak # page. Down to 972mb.

Carlotta TRMM pass very large quicktime.
Just misses the eye but shows the heavy rain that is coming for MX.

flag should be on next image
i think its still trying to close of the eye wall
Quoting Neapolitan:
It pays to realize, of course, that the Northwest Passage wasn't exactly "open" for Amundsen's voyage through it; the trip took him and his crew nearly three years, much of that time with the ship stuck fast in ice. And the route Amundsen chose was through a commercially-unviable set of shallows, which tend to melt earlier than the open sea.

The truth is--that is, the scientific truth--is that the Arctic hasn't had as little ice as it has now for at least 8,000 years--and possibly far, far longer than that.


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.

Shortwave


Dvorak
NOAA.gov
Link East Pacific Tropical Products
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.


What do you think of carlotta
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
large bombs come in small packages


I've always heard it as small dynamite comes in large packages
1218. wpb
can someone post recon data when they start there recon
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.
That's an old wives tail.
yay! Navy updated near 12.8n/95w


Quoting wpb:
can someone post recon data when they start there recon

Skyepony is good at that.
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG ON
ON APPROACH
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
13.86N/95.66W
Pollllll timmeeeee

What is the highest windspeed recon will find?
in mph
A75-80
B81-85
c86-90
d91-95
e96-100
f greater than 100

what will the peak be?

a 80
b 85
c 90
d 95
e 100
f 105
g greater


Ill say lower D and e
1224. 7544
we need a invest !!
Quoting Chicklit:
yay! Navy updated near 12.8n/95w



Translation: We don't know a thing.
1226. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 15:34Z
Date: June 15, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17


15:36:00Z 19.917N 96.600W 359.7 mb
(~ 10.62 inHg) 8,379 meters
(~ 27,490 feet) - 453 meters
(~ 1,486 feet) From 212° at 10 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 11.5 mph) -21.3°C
(~ -6.3°F) -24.7°C
(~ -12.5°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 15:26:30Z (first observation), the observation was 111 miles (178 km) to the NNW (339°) from Veracruz, Veracruz, México.
At 15:36:00Z (last observation), the observation was 60 miles (96 km) to the NNW (329°) from Veracruz, Veracruz, México.
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
That eyewall has gotten rather ragged looking. The northern eyewall has opened and will allow convection to wane even more. I'd say a 95 mph storm...probably peaking now. Now will probably level off and if she isn't impacted completely by the land interaction.


No the rapid intensification process is just starting also remember based on the last advisory it may not even make landfall instead it recurves from land so it has time to restrengthen once again so this is a very serious storm and its a small compact system it does take much to wrap the tstorms in the SW part of the eye wall to wrap around its eye.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.


When the Northwest Passage has opened during the last few years you could drive a bass boat through in a few hours.

This is not your fath, er, Amundsen's Northwest Passage.
Quoting weatherh98:
Pollllll timmeeeee

What is the highest windspeed recon will find?
in mph
A75-80
B81-85
c86-90
d91-95
e96-100
f greater than 100

what will the peak be?

a 80
b 85
c 90
d 95
e 100
f 105
g greater


Ill say lower D and e


1.E
2.G

Wow man that's really conservative even the NHC don't play this system that safe.
1230. help4u
BLOG DIED!
Quoting weatherh98:


What do you think of carlotta


Not enough information to make a good comment about it. If it was going to hit the gulf coast, I'd probably have more insight. We might have our own to deal with in a week or so, however...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Is it EWRC???

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm out for a bit... I bet recon finds winds of about 100mph

That may be a bit high.  She is still having issues maintaining a consistent CDO.  She is getting better organized but she's en-training some dry air at some level or still mixing it out.  Once she completely closes off her eye wall then she could take off in a real hurry, but until then I say this is a 80 knot storm or less.
1235. ncstorm
this is going to be an interesting run!

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Not enough information to make a good comment about it. If it was going to hit the gulf coast, I'd probably have more insight. We might have our own to deal with in a week or so, however...


Okay thats fine! yea GFS has been showing this one for like three weeks
The ADT got 5.0 Final Dvorak numbers from this wonderful image:

No I think she peaked, Folks.
1240. ncstorm
96 Hours out
12Z GFS
Quoting Hurricane1216:
The ADT got 5.0 Final Dvorak numbers from this wonderful image:




95MPH!!!!
Quoting ILwthrfan:

That may be a bit high.  She is still having issues maintaining a consistent CDO.  She is getting better organized but she's en-training some dry air at some level or still mixing it out.  Once she completely closes off her eye wall then she could take off in a real hurry, but until then I say this is a 80 knot storm or less.

She doesn't have a considerable amount of time...
About 18 Hours, still got some work to do...
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
No I think she peaked, Folks.


Not according to ADT
Look at that swirl.
Quoting Tazmanian:


nino 3.4 has cooled
Quoting weatherh98:



95MPH!!!!


Actually, 5.0 Dvorak number translates into 105 mph wind speeds.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.


nice mcv
She has NOT PEAKED!!! LOL!
Quoting weatherh98:


nice mcv


Watch it closely, MCV's over warm SST and favorable conditions have a chance to develop into something more if given long time over water like this might have and has had.
1251. LargoFl
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.
...........which way is the headed?
Quoting Hurricane1216:


Actually, 5.0 Dvorak number translates into 105 mph wind speeds.
you sure

3.5 is 65 and 4.0 is 75.. ik that for sure, so if you extrapolate, it would be 95

edit just saw it was 105
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
She has NOT PEAKED!!!

Chill out. I thought you had that road trip to go on...
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.


This is the satellite image of it:

T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG ON
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
14.01N/95.96W
Northern eyewall is in peril. Don't think she'll be able to wrap the convection and close off that crucial part of the system in time. Land interaction is a killer.

A 95mph TC is nothing to play around with.
1257. LargoFl
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
Northern eyewall is in peril. Don't think she'll be able to wrap the convection and close off that crucial part of the system in time. Land interaction is a killer.

A 95mph TC is nothing to play around with.


negative nelly lol
Quoting weatherh98:


nino 3.4 has cooled

MAweather showed that yesterday.
Quoting Hurricane1216:


This is the satellite image of it:


Wow!
Quoting weatherh98:
you sure

3.5 is 65 and 4.0 is 75.. ik that for sure, so if you extrapolate, it would be 95


Here:

3.5 = 55 kts4.0 = 65 kts4.5 =  75 kts5.0 = 90kts
90 kts = 104 mph 
To me, this looks a bit stronger than an 80 mph hurricane.

Looks quite healthy and symmetrical, but lacking a bit of outflow on the southern quad, not uncommon to see that out of tropical systems.

Quoting LargoFl:


oh stop drooling!
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Chill out. I thought you had that road trip to go on...

lol u chill! I think I know u being another blogger before.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

MAweather showed that yesterday.


didnt see it
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting weatherh98:


negative nelly lol

I would think someone who thinks a storm is weaker than present indicators would be positive in some way.

Oh, unless one wants destruction. Okay, I get it now.
Quoting Hurricane1216:


Here:

3.5 = 55 kts4.0 = 65 kts4.5 =  75 kts5.0 = 90kts
90 kts = 104 mph 
TA13 lied
Quoting weatherh98:


Is it EWRC???

No. You have to have a strong eye wall, first. Carlotta inhaled a good chunk of dry air, which you can see on IR and WV imagery. It tore up her northern side, leaving a sizable gap in her formative eye wall. She will need to close off that gap, and THEN she can intensify. That said, I don't think she has enough time to intensify, due to land interaction (mountains go up pretty steeply from the coast).

She might close off, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Considering everything, I think she's peaked, at around 95mph.
Quoting LargoFl:
...........which way is the headed?

It seems pretty stationary, though it would be interesting to see one of those move over land.
Quoting weatherh98:
TA13 lied

?
Btw I am leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
large bombs come in small packages
Yup,Think Andrew