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Tropical Storm Bertha Hits the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2014

The center of Tropical Storm Bertha was passing between the Lesser Antilles islands of Martinique and Dominica near 4 pm EDT on Friday, but has brought little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles Islands so far. As of 4 pm, Martinique had received 0.35" of rain, with top winds of 22 mph. Dominica had a wind gust of 43 mph at 4 pm EDT, and had picked up 0.08" of rain. The storm's top winds of 50 mph were located about 100 - 150 miles east-northeast of the center, and this portion of the storm will affect the northernmost Leeward Islands Friday night as Bertha speeds west-northwest at 22 mph. Visible satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that although Bertha's surface circulation was exposed to view due to wind shear, the storm was growing more organized. Bertha had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of the circulation, but heavy thunderstorms were beginning to fire up near the center of circulation. Martinique radar also showed increased organization, with more spiral bands forming and growing more intense near the center. This modest increase in organization may be due to the fact that wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west had dropped by 5 knots since Friday morning, and was a moderate 15 knots on Friday afternoon. These winds were still driving dry air to the west of Bertha into the circulation, limiting heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the storm. An Air Force C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating Bertha early Friday afternoon, and found that the storm's central pressure had fallen 3 mb since Friday morning, to 1007 mb. Top surface winds measured by the plane were about 50 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Bertha as the center passed between Martinique and Dominica at 4 pm EDT August 1, 2014. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Bertha from approximately 1:15 pm EDT August 1, 2014. At the time, Bertha had top winds of 50 mph. A long, near-surface arc-shaped cloud racing away from Bertha to the north and west is seen. These arc clouds are the sign of a tropical cyclone struggling with dry air, and form when dry air at mid-levels is ingested into a tropical cyclone's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that rob the storm of moisture. When the downdrafts hit the surface, the air spreads out in an arc-shaped pattern, creating clouds at the edge of the outflow boundary. The low level center of Bertha was fully exposed to view, the sign of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Bertha
Moderate wind shear of 15 knots is expected to affect Bertha through Saturday morning, according to the 18 UTC Friday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around Bertha quite dry, the shear will be able to drive dry air into Bertha's circulation, keeping intensification slow through Saturday morning. Given that Bertha was beginning to fire up heavy thunderstorms on the west side of its circulation Friday afternoon, in defiance of the shear and dry air, makes it more likely that the storm can have sustained winds as strong as 65 mph when it makes its closest approach to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Wind shear is forecast to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, by Saturday afternoon. When Bertha leaves Puerto Rico and heads towards the Southeast Bahamas on Saturday night, wind shear is expected to remain low. However, passage over the rough terrain of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic may disrupt the storm. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS, European, and GFDL models showed Bertha's core tracking over the eastern Dominican Republic Saturday night, and this track would significantly weaken the storm. Bertha will still be capable of dumping heavy rains on the Southeast Bahamas on Sunday and Monday, though, as the storm turns north in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. This trough should be strong enough to recurve Bertha to the northeast without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Iselle in the Eastern Pacific.

Hawaii keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Iselle
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Iselle is close to hurricane strength, and could affect Hawaii late next week. Satellite images show that Iselle has developed a large and ragged eye, and Iselle has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are improving in organization. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs near 28°C, Iselle is likely become a hurricane today and maintain hurricane status over the weekend. Early next week, the storm will encounter cooler waters of 26°C, which are marginal for maintaining a hurricane. The GFS and European models predict that Iselle will pass close to Hawaii next Friday, but the storm should be weakening and may be close to dissipation by then. It's been a very active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, which has seen 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes so far in 2014. On average, we expect to see 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 1 in the Eastern Pacific.

Tropical Storm Halong a threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Halong is intensifying, and satellite strength estimates put Halong at Category 1 typhoon strength on Friday afternoon. The storm is expected to head northwards and affect Japan's Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. Tazmanian:



Really if I re call Hattie has 7000ft mts with hvy rain and with the mts being bear from the earthquake they had they will have sever run off from hvy rains a weak ts can do major damgs there if you think a weak ts can do major damgs from severe flooding and mudslides this think what a cat 5 would do there so like I said I dont think they wold be calling this. A junk or trash storm at all so I dont find this one bit funny the ones thay are talking about trash storms and junk newds two start thinking about the people on Haiti that are still in tents there going two have a lot of flooding and the storm gos over them




Bloggers are free to call it what they wish. Tropical Storm Bertha is extremely disorganized at the present regardless of its impacts, hence the nickname trash/junk storm. If you don't like the term, don't use it.
Quoting 499. Tazmanian:



Really if I re call Hattie has 7000ft mts with hvy rain and with the mts being bear from the earthquake they had they will have sever run off from hvy rains a weak ts can do major damgs there if you think a weak ts can do major damgs from severe flooding and mudslides this think what a cat 5 would do there so like I said I dont think they wold be calling this. A junk or trash storm at all so I dont find this one bit funny the ones thay are talking about trash storms and junk newds two start thinking about the people on Haiti that are still in tents there going two have a lot of flooding and the storm gos over them





From a humanitarian standpoint you're right. But Bertha is still disorganized, pathetic, and weak. Emotional response isn't going to change that.

Also, Bertha will be moving through relatively quickly anyway, minimizing the flood potential.
Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Has Cody read this one yet? :p
Quoting 499. Tazmanian:



Really if I re call Hattie has 7000ft mts with hvy rain and with the mts being bear from the earthquake they had they will have sever run off from hvy rains a weak ts can do major damgs there if you think a weak ts can do major damgs from severe flooding and mudslides this think what a cat 5 would do there so like I said I dont think they wold be calling this. A junk or trash storm at all so I dont find this one bit funny the ones thay are talking about trash storms and junk newds two start thinking about the people on Haiti that are still in tents there going two have a lot of flooding and the storm gos over them



Taz, I understand your concern. Right now it looks like Bertha will stay closer to Puerto Rico, and because most of the storms are on the eastern side it shouldn't do too much damage to Haiti. However, this is the rainy season, so they are going to have problems with water on the whole.
Track forecast and possible threat to Hawaii still highly uncertain with Iselle. Working on my blog this evening, I'm finding that a lot of the models are showing an abrupt deceleration of the storm as it flirts with the 140W (central Pacific) line, likely due to Invest 97E several hundred miles to the east. Many of the models show this becoming the dominant circulation.

Not sure if I buy into that yet, but it may be that [hypothetical] Julio ends up being the real threat.
Well 5% chance of TS force winds on the Outer Banks. That's better than nothing, right?

Quoting 505. KoritheMan:

Track forecast and possible threat to Hawaii still highly uncertain with Iselle. Working on my blog this evening, I'm finding that a lot of the models are showing an abrupt deceleration of the storm as it flirts with the 140W (central Pacific) line, likely due to Invest 97E several hundred miles to the east. Many of the models show this becoming the dominant circulation.

Not sure if I buy into that yet, but it may be that [hypothetical] Julio ends up being the real threat.
i think there's a break in the ridge in that area. the ridge looks to build near/over hawaii while a weakness develops around 140w
Quoting 506. Tazmanian:

I no a good trem two call it jfv

What happen to ts Bertha it going to be a hurricane or what
Look how exceptionally violent the core of Halong appears on visible satellite. Outflow is good to great to the east, south, and west, but lacking to the north thanks to northerly shear imparted from Tropical Storm Nakri. The eye has been warming rapidly over the past few hours, with the latest CIMSS ADT estimate at 6C. I estimate the storm is approaching 125kt.

I'm interested to see how high this goes. The upper-level pattern isn't perfect since the storm is lacking a poleward outflow jet (thanks to the aforementioned shear) but this storm has several more days to intensify.

Hmm
I knew something is wrong where NHC put the LLC
NHC says that it's an estimated position
And that recon is having a very hard time finding a closed LLC if there is one

I think there is one
And it's somewhere near 15.2N 63W moving W-WNW currently decoupled from convection and likely to have a weak South half
Looks like recon is flying towards the area as we speak
If they don't find it there is a possibility that this is not a storm anymore rather a very strong tropical wave with TS winds
By the way I do believe recon will find it
512. Relix
Quoting 511. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
I knew something is wrong where NHC put the LLC
NHC says that it's an estimated position
And that recon is having a very hard time finding a closed LLC if there is one

I think there is one
And it's somewhere near 15.2N 63W moving W-WNW currently decoupled from convection and likely to have a weak South half
Looks like recon is flying towards the area as we speak
If they don't find it there is a possibility that this is not a storm anymore rather a very strong tropical wave with TS winds
By the way I do believe recon will find it


W-WNW? Wut? This this is moving at least at 285 degrees, that's pure WNW
Quoting 511. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
I knew something is wrong where NHC put the LLC
NHC says that it's an estimated position
And that recon is having a very hard time finding a closed LLC if there is one

I think there is one
And it's somewhere near 15.2N 63W moving W-WNW currently decoupled from convection and likely to have a weak South half
Looks like recon is flying towards the area as we speak
If they don't find it there is a possibility that this is not a storm anymore rather a very strong tropical wave with TS winds
By the way I do believe recon will find it

Bertha is now moving wnw into the weakness on the east side of the west atl ridge. It will go there weak or strong. KEY POINT. Now how strong it gets, is debatable. Shear is gona be good, moisture good as you see in water vapor loop. The situation is depending on the vorticity level when it gets north of the Mona passage.
Quoting 515. Camille33:


Bertha is now moving wnw into the weakness on the east side of the west atl ridge. It will go there weak or strong. KEY POINT. Now how strong it gets, is debatable. Shear is gona be good, moisture good as you see in water vapor loop. The situation is depending on the vorticity level when it gets north of the Mona passage.


No it is not going to the west caribbean I hope you know it
Quoting 512. Relix:



W-WNW? Wut? This this is moving at least at 285 degrees, that's pure WNW

Don't look that way on shortwave

Hopefully recon can get a vortex fix
Bertha will most likely become a hurricane north of 20n... as shown by the models. It may approach Cat 2 intensity like Bill.
Quoting 516. Camille33:



No it is not going to the west caribbean I hope you know it

It may

I think
It would either pass over Hispaniola
Or between Jamaica and Haiti and move over E Cuba
Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N 15.4N:

Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N:


And moving west
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N:



Lol ok you see it too

I was thinking I was only seeing it
Quoting 523. Gearsts:

And moving west


About time people are seeing it
526. MahFL
Quoting 498. HurrTracker13:

off topic but pray for Paul George. horrible injury tonight


Who is Paul George ?
527. MahFL
Quoting 523. Gearsts:

And moving west


It's probably moving 290, which is just north of west.
Quoting 523. Gearsts:

And moving west

Keeping in mind its current position and recalling that it passed over the northern coast of Martinique, I'd say WNW.
GN all..

00z SREF ensembles..

Quoting 528. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Keeping in mind its current position and recalling that it passed over the northern coast of Martinique, I'd say WNW.
So the NHC has it in the wrong place?
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N:



Made an error here, forgot the latitude dots are in increments of 2N, not 1N. Make that 15.4N.
Quoting 531. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Made an error here, forgot the latitude dots are in increments of 2N, not 1N. Make that 15.4N.
Location: 15.7°N 63.0°W :/
533. MahFL
Convection creeping back to the center.

Quoting 530. Gearsts:

So the NHC has it in the wrong place?

Well yes
NHC said it them selfs that their 11pm position was just an estimation
Not an exact fix
Because recon is having a hard time finding a closed LLC

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N:



There's a shocker.
Quoting 532. Gearsts:

Location: 15.7°N 63.0°W :/

They're only slightly off, and the low-level center only recently became visible.
Quoting 533. MahFL:

Convection creeping back to the center.


Atlantic the only ocean where we have to zoom in on convection to check for intensity ;)
Quoting 532. Gearsts:

Location: 15.7°N 63.0°W :/

That's not the true or actual location
Apparently the NHC is expecting hurricane status down the road...

540. flsky
Just happened to be out walking the dog tonight and was lucky enough to see the Atlas V take off. Went NE this time. Could hear a bit of the rumble in the distance. Fun stuff!
Quoting 526. MahFL:



Who is Paul George ?


NBA star.
542. 7544
Quoting 538. wunderkidcayman:


That's not the true or actual location


coc a bit more sw you think ?
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exposed again @ 63.1W 15.2N:




If there is really a center I may find a open wave in the am


Night
544. JRRP
Por fin llegue
It looks like Genevieve is back....for the third time.

546. JLPR2
Compared to last night, tonight's convection is considerably weak and limited. Meh...
I'm out, not gonna loose sleep over a sad looking TS, lets see how close it is and in what state it is tomorrow morning.


Goodnight!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like Genevieve is back....for the third time.



The ride never ends.
Quoting 542. 7544:


I'm not the only one

Quoting 543. Tazmanian:



If there is really a center I may find a open wave in the am


Night

That is a possibility
Quoting 511. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
I knew something is wrong where NHC put the LLC
NHC says that it's an estimated position
And that recon is having a very hard time finding a closed LLC if there is one

I think there is one
And it's somewhere near 15.2N 63W moving W-WNW currently decoupled from convection and likely to have a weak South half
Looks like recon is flying towards the area as we speak
If they don't find it there is a possibility that this is not a storm anymore rather a very strong tropical wave with TS winds
By the way I do believe recon will find it

W-WNW??
Why don't you just call it Cayman West?
This isn't gonna' be the big one, or even the little one, for the Caymans.
Maybe next storm.
550. flsky
Just saw it - horrible

Quoting 498. HurrTracker13:

off topic but pray for Paul George. horrible injury tonight
RECON is now flying towards that suspected area of the LLC
Hopefully we get vortex fix
Hurricane Bertha on the horizon? So many unknowns at this point. Will this die over the mountains, will this then go more more Westward? 90% this fishes, don't see how it could miss this strong trough of low pressure. NHC bullish long term and they've been right on the money. Chance of this going as far West as WKC says is possible hovering around 2%. That's not zero though.
Halong
554. MahFL
Quoting 537. Gearsts:

Atlantic the only ocean where we have to zoom in on convection to check for intensity ;)

It's not intensity, it's coverage of convection at the center.
Quoting 521. wunderkidcayman:


It may

I think
It would either pass over Hispaniola
Or between Jamaica and Haiti and move over E Cuba


Just no way steering currents set that up. Nothing is ever set in stone though. Bertha has already surprised and proved wrong many here. See why Sar's thinking aligns with NHC's usually. They are the best, amazing job they do.
Quoting 552. DeepSeaRising:

Hurricane Bertha on the horizon? So many unknowns at this point. Will this die over the mountains, will this then go more more Westward? 90% this fishes, don't see how it could miss this strong trough of low pressure. NHC bullish long term and they've been right on the money. Chance of this going as far West as WKC says is possible hovering around 2%. That's not zero though.


Pitiful

Quoting 526. MahFL:



Who is Paul George ?
Had 2 google him myself ...
Quoting 549. CosmicEvents:


W-WNW??
Why don't you just call it Cayman West?
This isn't gonna' be the big one, or even the little one, for the Caymans.
Maybe next storm.

Why would I do that I did not say that
Or anything about W Caribbean
Quoting 521. wunderkidcayman:


It may

I think
It would either pass over Hispaniola
Or between Jamaica and Haiti and move over E Cuba
If that ULL wasn't just sitting there over Hispaniola I might see it... but no way that's going west of that ULL ....
Quoting 552. DeepSeaRising:

Hurricane Bertha on the horizon? So many unknowns at this point. Will this die over the mountains, will this then go more more Westward? 90% this fishes, don't see how it could miss this strong trough of low pressure. NHC bullish long term and they've been right on the money. Chance of this going as far West as WKC says is possible hovering around 2%. That's not zero though.

It's a lot more than 2%
2% is more like the chances of it ending up in the GOM

Okay if Gro is going to the downcasting side Bertha is surely to die shortly. So why is NHC calling this to reach hurricane status Gro? What do they see that we don't? Obviously better conditions down the road, but they see this maintaining and not opening up, although they do hedge their bets in the discussion. What's your prediction oh ancient wise one. Is it true you helped Jonah to shore after he got spit out? Can read about that one in the Apocrypha.
562. MahFL
The 15 mins updates are nice.

Halong Terra pass..

Quoting 560. wunderkidcayman:


It's a lot more than 2%
2% is more like the chances of it ending up in the GOM


\

Okay :) agree. What your saying could happen is around 5-7%, reaching the Gulf is 2%. Won't argue that.
RECON may have found LLC near 15.3N 63.5W

Halong
567. MahFL
Bertha is on the PR long range radar now.

Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Okay if Gro is going to the downcasting side Bertha is surely to die shortly. So why is NHC calling this to reach hurricane status Gro? What do they see that we don't? Obviously better conditions down the road, but they see this maintaining and not opening up, although they do hedge their bets in the discussion. What's your prediction oh ancient wise one. Is it true you helped Jonah to shore after he got spit out? Can read about that one in the Apocrypha.


I don't think Gro said anything about the future of this system, just that its satellite presentation is pitiful as of right now.
Quoting 565. wunderkidcayman:

RECON may have found LLC near 15.3N 63.5W



Or maybe RECON just passed just shy N of the LLC
So maybe 15.2N 63.5W
Lightening up & Then Some...
I'm back after the last few rounds of thunderstorms/ thunder showers...& thankfully the power has stayed on through all of this tropical assault. Of course some scattered power outages have been reported in a few
spots. Now we're having the Occasional gusts - with moderate to light rain showers. It seems like Bertha's centre went up nearly along most of our west coast. At least near enough from the satellite/ radar pics.

These last few years- it seems like there is an 'attraction' for the Female named storms - once in our vicinity - to be 'magneted' to Dominica. Hmmm...Perhaps there may be a bit more to it than coincidence. (Well Dominica is a Charming & irresistibly handsome Nature Island, so there's maybe some pseudo-meteorological logic to it) lol...
So far reports do not seem that bad with many communities still fully connected to the utilities 'system'.

That being said strong wind gusts and bands of moderate to heavy rain are
likely to continue well into the night (perhaps the discontinuation of the
Tropical storm warning was just a little premature). The fact is that we are all
grateful that Bertha was not an intensifying Hurricane upon landfall in
Dominica's south...That Goes without saying, because Had environmental conditions been more
favourable- as the GFS etc. had predicted- Bertha could have well been a
Monster Cat 2 or stronger Hurricane on our door steps... Praise God for His
tender mercies! Certainly Day light will tell the full story...
God Bless & a Good night to All!

P.S I hope the VI etc. Are preparing- take no chances...
Time: 04:09:30Z
Coordinates: 15.3333N 63.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,577 meters (~ 5,174 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.6 mb (~ 29.84 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 116° at 1 knots (From the ESE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 17.6°C (~ 63.7°F)
Dew Pt: 16.9°C (~ 62.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
572. 7544
Quoting 559. BahaHurican:

If that ULL wasn't just sitting there over Hispaniola I might see it... but no way that's going west of that ULL ....


isnt that ull suppose to move west west and bring more rain to se fl. or will bertha meet up and get pushed into it and become one ?
its been there for days .
Quoting 537. Gearsts:

Atlantic the only ocean where we have to zoom in on convection to check for intensity ;)


lol!
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:



I don't think Gro said anything about the future of this system, just that its satellite presentation is pitiful as of right now.


Yes indeed Teddy. Your intellectual side is far more attractive than your humor side if I had to make a bet. Pitiful would indeed be very accurate right now. Hard system to call to say the least.
Quoting 559. BahaHurican:

If that ULL wasn't just sitting there over Hispaniola I might see it... but no way that's going west of that ULL ....

From what I can see on water vapour
It's not sitting over Hispaniola it's N of there just ENE of SE Bahamas
And it's drifting W-WSW
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Yes indeed Teddy. Your intellectual side is far more attractive than your humor side if I had to make a bet. Pitiful would indeed be very accurate right now. Hard system to call to say the least.


What? I haven't even gotten a chance to pull out my book o'puns yet! :P
Looks like RECON is probably confirming vortex fix near 15.3N 63.5W
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:



I don't think Gro said anything about the future of this system, just that its satellite presentation is pitiful as of right now.


Finally, somebody defended me. Thanks, Teddy.

Right now it does look pitiful. I stayed in the camp of Bertha developing, as you know. I haven't really agreed with the models. Not all systems die in the "Dead Zone" but I couldn't see it maintaining itself as it entered the Caribbean. However, whatever is left of this does have a good chance of strengthening as it moves into the Bahamas. It looks quite weak tonight and the movement could possibly be a little more west than had been forecast. I think in the next few hours there will be convection rebuilding.
Interesting run on GEOS-5. That was Bertha's moment where it closed. Remains open over PR & beyond but look at the low close over ECFL on Monday, it opens & relocates east of GA on Tuesday.




Quoting 578. Grothar:



Finally, somebody defended me. Thanks, Teddy.

Right now it does look pitiful. I stayed in the camp of Bertha developing, as you know. I haven't really agreed with the models. Not all systems die in the "Dead Zone" but I couldn't see it maintaining itself as it entered the Caribbean. However, whatever is left of this does have a good chance of strengthening as it moves into the Bahamas. It looks quite weak tonight and the movement could possibly be a little more west than had been forecast. I think in the next few hours there will be convection rebuilding.

Well it looks like it's moving W or W-WNW
And recon confirming its SW of 11pm advisory position
Quoting 572. 7544:



isnt that ull suppose to move west west and bring more rain to se fl. or will bertha meet up and get pushed into it and become one ?
its been there for days .
Been hanging around that general vicinity for about 2 weeks... though not so far south as it is now. I'm expecting Bertha will have to deal with it one way or the other.... but I haven't seen any forecasts suggesting that it is going to move....
Quoting 578. Grothar:



Finally, somebody defended me. Thanks, Teddy.

Right now it does look pitiful. I stayed in the camp of Bertha developing, as you know. I haven't really agreed with the models. Not all systems die in the "Dead Zone" but I couldn't see it maintaining itself as it entered the Caribbean. However, whatever is left of this does have a good chance of strengthening as it moves into the Bahamas. It looks quite weak tonight and the movement could possibly be a little more west than had been forecast. I think in the next few hours there will be convection rebuilding.


Interesting based on what models shown by Skyepony and what Gro is saying this could be close to the OB as a strong TS borderline hurricane down the road. Just no real way to predict this. Makes what we love all the more fun and Mother Nature holds all the cards.
Quoting 575. wunderkidcayman:


From what I can see on water vapour
It's not sitting over Hispaniola it's N of there just ENE of SE Bahamas
And it's drifting W-WSW
Sorry for poor terminology... "over" meant "just to the north of" as opposed to "sitting on top of".... looking at map location... lol ... It's been hanging out there for a while. I can't see Bertha moving SW around it.... A track over central / western Hispaniola actually is more typical at this time of year, IIRC, but it is what it is...
586. 7544
Quoting 575. wunderkidcayman:


From what I can see on water vapour
It's not sitting over Hispaniola it's N of there just ENE of SE Bahamas
And it's drifting W-WSW


looks expose again i see west here.

and thanks baha.
Gro your the one storm of intensity that we are all glad didn't die last year! You are the cornerstone of the the blog, and i for one am very thankful that you chose to come back. Your strong words of wisdom and encouragement have meant a great deal to meal over the past two years. Thank you mate.
That area just ENE of the Bahamas continues to interest me a bit. It has that suspicious look to it. Probably won't be much but *shrugs* you never know in this area of the Atlantic.
Quoting 561. DeepSeaRising:

Okay if Gro is going to the downcasting side Bertha is surely to die shortly. So why is NHC calling this to reach hurricane status Gro? What do they see that we don't? Obviously better conditions down the road, but they see this maintaining and not opening up, although they do hedge their bets in the discussion. What's your prediction oh ancient wise one. Is it true you helped Jonah to shore after he got spit out? Can read about that one in the Apocrypha.


I never met Jonah, but I heard he had a whale of a time.
Looks like Saba, St Barts are starting to get some rain from this... though cloud cover looks patchy near Caribboy...

Invest 97E is gradually becoming better defined, and its environment will favor continued development over the next week. It would not surprise me if this storm ultimately became the next major hurricane.

Fitting status for 'Julio'.

Center moving nw at the last frames in to the convection.
Link
and after Bertha, next large wave about to exit Africa - cheers

Link
As I said earlier, convection will be refiring soon.


Time: 04:51:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5333N 63.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,574 meters (~ 5,164 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.1 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 97° at 5 knots (From the E at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.7°C (~ 65.7°F)
Dew Pt: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 587. DeepSeaRising:

Gro your the one storm of intensity that we are all glad didn't die last year! You are the cornerstone of the the blog, and i for one am very thankful that you chose to come back. Your strong words of wisdom and encouragement have meant a great deal to meal over the past two years. Thank you mate.


Why thank you. I am here to serve. I don't have the energy I did to write lengthy blogs, but I still look great and that's what counts. :)
Quoting 589. Grothar:



I never met Jonah, but I heard he had a whale of a time.



hits rim
1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
Quoting 591. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 97E is gradually becoming better defined, and its environment will favor continued development over the next week. It would not surprise me if this storm ultimately became the next major hurricane.

Fitting status for 'Julio'.




Admit it. You like that name. That's why you're biased to it.
96W is a massive naked swirl. I've never seen anything like this.
Quoting 592. Gearsts:

Center moving nw at the last frames in to the convection.
Link

The only thing I see is last few frames convection shooting SW over the LLC

Quoting 599. KoritheMan:



Admit it. You like that name. That's why you're biased to it.


I asked him what he thought would be the "bad" storm of the EPAC season, and he said "Douglas". Oh well, Nature had other ideas.

Edit: Night blog.
Quoting 602. Astrometeor:



I asked him what he thought would be the "bad" storm of the EPAC season, and he said "Douglas". Oh well, Nature had other ideas.


No I think he said Julio after Douglas. Back when Fausto formed.
Quoting 599. KoritheMan:



Admit it. You like that name. That's why you're biased to it.
Gosh Cody and me have different taste in names all the names he likes I dislike them. etc Douglas and now Julio.
Quoting 556. Grothar:



Pitiful


Lol I feel sorry for her. Every night it looks like the Atlantic punch her.
Last image of the night for me. Looks better than a few hours ago.

Maybe we will see her roaring tomorrow.

I don't know of any way to confirm this, but if I remember correctly, the genesis of Tropical Storm Genevieve in the first place was due at least in part to the southern end of the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Depression Two. If that's not cool enough, the GFS is indicating that this will maintain intensity for the next several days, cross into the West Pacific, and intensify into a 969 millibar typhoon.



Quoting 599. KoritheMan:



Admit it. You like that name. That's why you're biased to it.

Not really, lol.
Quoting 600. winter123:

96W is a massive naked swirl. I've never seen anything like this.



Reminds me of Tropical Storm Talas.



Where are we now, 16N 63.5W?
Quoting 593. docrod:

and after Bertha, next large wave about to exit Africa - cheers

Link
I believe models are not developing anything in the next 7 days.... might be wrong.:)
610. vis0
+++
Ok I see a very slight tug Nward when convection shot SWward over the LLC
Other than that no other N movements
At this time
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know of any way to confirm this, but if I remember correctly, the genesis of Tropical Storm Genevieve in the first place was due at least in part to the southern end of the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Depression Two. If that's not cool enough, the GFS is indicating that this will maintain intensity for the next several days, cross into the West Pacific, and intensify into a 969 millibar typhoon.




Not really, lol.

I lied (not purposefully). I checked the OPC surface analysis charts and the wave that spawned TD2 is the one that led to Iselle, not Genevieve. Still, the idea of Genevieve starting in the East Pacific, coming back from the dead twice now, and potentially entering the West Pacific to become a powerful typhoon is awesome.
613. vis0
True slide controls once loaded fully slide slider to view animation  faster/slower forwards/backwards

Create a Free Slideshow
Bring us lots of rain....

Quoting 608. redwagon:



Where are we now, 16N 63.5W?

More or lees
15.5N 63.6W
Apparently I'm the only one who thinks the NHC is being too conservative with their wind forecast beyond 2 to 3 days.
Quoting 617. dfwstormwatch:

Apparently I'm the only one who thinks the NHC is being too conservative with their wind forecast beyond 2 to 3 days.


Nah, they could be. But it's better to play a wait and see game until something definitive happens.
big area of WV over eastern Africa.... Constant wave train..



I hope all our PR friends have their cistern loading systems all ready to GO!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know of any way to confirm this, but if I remember correctly, the genesis of Tropical Storm Genevieve in the first place was due at least in part to the southern end of the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Depression Two. If that's not cool enough, the GFS is indicating that this will maintain intensity for the next several days, cross into the West Pacific, and intensify into a 969 millibar typhoon.




Not really, lol.


If it had remained a cyclone the entire way, that would be the greatest thing ever.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Apparently I'm the only one who thinks the NHC is being too conservative with their wind forecast beyond 2 to 3 days.


From the forecast advisory,

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
Once again, the value of HH flights is proven. The fact that Bertha cannot fully organize is understandable given the environment. In fact, I'm impressed at the way the storm has survived so far.
Quoting 622. CybrTeddy:



If it had remained a cyclone the entire way, that would be the greatest thing ever.


Not as great as Louisiana getting another hurricane.
Q: Sunlinepr 620



Now that you mention it, we ARE running out of SAL.

Bill Gates gonna busy with this string.
Quoting 625. KoritheMan:



Not as great as Louisiana getting another hurricane.
Like I have told you a lot of times. The most you wanted it the less likely it would happen. :P

2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2
Location: 15.8°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 627. allancalderini:

Like I have told you a lot of times. The most you wanted it the less likely it would happen. :P


It'll happen eventually.
630. JRRP
Last years's wave train was such a tease. They hit the water as beasts and died a quick death. Conditions are better this year. We are headed to an average year of 12 named storms five canes and one major if we are lucky. We should appreciate Bertha. Will be one of the more interesting storms of the year and likely become 2/5 hurricanes of the season.
Quoting 630. JRRP:


Another shift west -_-
Looks like Bertha is headed for the Virgin Islands next.... and at last there's some rain over Caribboy.... hope he gets more than a drizzle.... now for some empty cisterns.....
Q: JRRP (tracks)

Even better, PR gets the NE quadrant.
Quoting 631. DeepSeaRising:

Last years's wave train was such a tease. They hit the water as beasts and died a quick death. Conditions are better this year. We are headed to an average year of 12 named storms five canes and one major if we are lucky. We should appreciate Bertha. Will be one of the more interesting storms of the year and likely become 2/5 hurricanes of the season.


Seriously? We're almost certain to get at least one major hurricane.
Recon is finished
Kori has been so patient. Not doubt his first chase will be a major and he will blog it dodging death, but will be more alive than he's ever been. See him in a fast food freezer and coming out with nothing left of the store. :)
Quoting 637. KoritheMan:



Seriously? We're almost certain to get at least one major hurricane.


TA says negative captain. No majors this year.
Quoting 630. JRRP:


Quoting 633. Gearsts:

Another shift west -_-

Yep
Quoting 629. KoritheMan:



It'll happen eventually.
This will be my 16 year waiting for a hurricane the last one was in 1998 and it was a cat 1 in landfall yours was just 2 years ago, or Isaac wasn't enough? :P
644. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Another shift west -_-

looks like that
Quoting 636. redwagon:

Q: JRRP (tracks)

Even better, PR gets the NE quadrant.
Too far to the SW
Hmm
Going by advisory alone

Last
15.7N 63.0

Now
15.8N 64.0

Genevieve reminds me of the remnants of Karen they come back from the dead.
Quoting 641. DeepSeaRising:



TA says negative captain. No majors this year.


I don't care, lol. There's never been historical precedent for back to back years without major hurricanes in the satellite era.

If 2009 can do two, we can do at least one.
Quoting 644. JRRP:


looks like that

Looks like over Hispaniola to be with Bertha
Quoting 648. KoritheMan:



I don't care, lol. There's never been historical precedent for back to back years without major hurricanes in the satellite era.

If 2009 can do two, we can do at least one.


While TA is the man, no doubt i agree with you. Season is already over preforming and conditions are improving in the MDR. Major is far better than 50/50 shot. Going with 13-5-2. Which is what I predicted for earlier or there abouts. Could see two CV's major next 45 days and then one off the EC or Gulf in September. Could see a 14-5-3 season. Wishcasting hard here!
Quoting 645. Gearsts:

Too far to the SW


Well, then, can I start TX wishcasting? (centex drought)
653. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Looks like over Hispaniola to be with Bertha

I don't think so yet
Quoting 648. KoritheMan:



I don't care, lol. There's never been historical precedent for back to back years without major hurricanes in the satellite era.

If 2009 can do two, we can do at least one.

There's always a first for everything. :)

Last month was among the driest Julys on record for the tropical Atlantic. SSTs in the MDR are the coolest since 2002. Shear is running at near record high values. SAL activity has been above-average (all of this according to CSU yesterday). I still think we'll get one (I said I had doubts yesterday, not definitely we wouldn't get one), but it'll be a tough feat.
Well looks like no new RECON flights for another few hrs so just might get some shut eye before then


Quoting 650. wunderkidcayman:


Looks like over Hispaniola to be with Bertha
NHC is expecting a NW turn later today.
Quoting 651. DeepSeaRising:



While TA is the man, no doubt i agree with you. Season is already over preforming and conditions are improving in the MDR. Major is far better than 50/50 shot. Going with 13-5-2. Which is what I predicted for earlier or there abouts. Could see two CV's major next 45 days and then one off the EC or Gulf in September. Could see a 14-5-3 season. Wishcasting hard here!

Overperforming by whose standards? To date, we've seen a Category 2 hurricane off the Southeast coast -- the preferred location in an El Nino year -- and two marginal tropical cyclones. Also, where's the evidence that the MDR is becoming more favorable?
Quoting 654. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's always a first for everything. :)

Last month was among the driest Julys on record for the tropical Atlantic. SSTs in the MDR are the coolest since 2002. Shear is running at near record high values. SAL activity has been above-average (all of this according to CSU yesterday). I still think we'll get one (I said I had doubts yesterday, not definitely we wouldn't get one), but it'll be a tough feat.


Love it TA, sounds like a NHC forecast hedging their bets in the final sentence. Hope you get there some day.
Quoting 658. DeepSeaRising:



Love it TA, sounds like a NHC forecast hedging their bets in the final sentence. Hope you get there some day.

I'm working on it. ;)
Quoting 657. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Overperforming by who's standards? To date, we've seen a Category 2 hurricane off the Southeast coast -- the preferred location in an El Nino year -- and two marginal tropical cyclones. Also, where's the evidence that the MDR is becoming more favorable?


Waves are surviving far better than last year, SAL is lessening, and SST's are increasing. Caribbean is not friendly though, maybe as bad as we've ever seen.

Quoting 654. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's always a first for everything. :)

Okay, Cody. I love you. <3
Quoting 656. Gearsts:

NHC is expecting a NW turn later today.

Nah
NW turn today
Nah

Quoting 658. DeepSeaRising:



Love it TA, sounds like a NHC forecast hedging their bets in the final sentence. Hope you get there some day.
He will.

So will I.

Then we can have the most adorable love-hate relationship on the planet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's always a first for everything. :)

Last month was among the driest Julys on record for the tropical Atlantic. SSTs in the MDR are the coolest since 2002. Shear is running at near record high values. SAL activity has been above-average (all of this according to CSU yesterday). I still think we'll get one (I said I had doubts yesterday, not definitely we wouldn't get one), but it'll be a tough feat.


I'm starting to think my 8-4-2 forecast will end up looking like 6-3-0, to be honest.
Q: Chrisdcane

That's somewhat south and west of expectations.
Quoting 660. DeepSeaRising:



Waves are surviving far better than last year, SAL is lessening, and SST's are increasing. Caribbean is not friendly though, maybe as bad as we've ever seen.

Waves have definitely been vigorous this year, fueled by a cool Gulf of Guinea and average/slightly wetter than average Sahel. However, once they've exited Africa, a majority of them have fizzled due to the dry air. The ones that haven't -- TD2 and Bertha, for example -- only didn't because they were each aided by the passage of a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave. We don't have a metric to compare SAL, but it's important to keep in mind that while all SAL is dry air, not all dry air is SAL. The air across the Atlantic basin is converging in the upper levels, which should continue to dry out the atmosphere as long as that pattern remains.
Morning all. So is Junk storm back to being rubbish wave?
Quoting 664. KoritheMan:


He will.

So will I.

Then we can have the most adorable love-hate relationship on the planet.


I'll have to stop you from wishcasting every hurricane to Louisiana.

Quoting 665. CybrTeddy:



I'm starting to think my 8-4-2 forecast will end up looking like 6-3-0, to be honest.

Well, as we've seen so far this season, the only good spot for tropical cyclones is off the East Coast, where waters are running above-average, shear is running below-average, and it's decently moist (average-above-average instability). The issue going forward is that the we should see a ridge move into this region over the next week to two weeks (Kori has harped on it plenty...) meaning that surface pressures in this region should increase. This should lower the chances of development in this region.

The potential re-intensification of El Nino in the East Pacific this fall means that we really have two months...this month and next month...to get substantial activity.
TA13, pretty standard to expect this month and next to be the most active. So far the season has been what I would consider active. I don't know whether that will continue or not (no models hinting at development for over 2 weeks); but to have had 3 systems by Aug 1 is not a slow season by any means. Yet. Even if 2 of the systems were Junk.
Ya TA those are good reasonings for an under average season do doubt. Still think a 6-3-0 season by Teddy has about a zero chance of happening. We'll get three more CV's. And three more home growns. At the least we're looking at a 10-4-1 season. Boring for as standards go over the last decade, but pretty average for the long term.

Bit South of the FP's this evening. Seems to be jogging west ATM.

Kori and TA are mere images of each other. They both are evidence driven, one is an optimist one is a realist. Two of the best when it comes to projections. I hope you both go far.
674. JRRP
Morning Pulse and DSR. You home town biasing it again Pulse? lol & J/K...Saw mom of 4 giving you a hard time earlier. Seems like I took a beat down from Taz for all the Junk talk. Good times.

To some extent the overall numbers really have no bearing on how "interesting" a season is in my opinion. One CV that forms just off the coast and tracks around the basin as a Cat 5 without impacting land for 3 weeks would certainly be interesting. Anything that landfalls as a Cat 2 or higher makes the season interesting. (Hopefully all the folks that will read that as I want death and destruction are asleep; most know that is not what I mean) Anyway, Ike was certainly interesting. Sandy was interesting. Humberto was interesting. All for different reasons, but interesting none the less.
LLC again exposed near 15.8N 64.1W
Wish they'd put it in rapid scan...

ok, who is all up to give updates right now?
Quoting 676. wunderkidcayman:

LLC again exposed near 15.8N 64.1W


Yep. A trash storm with junk convection and a rubbish LLC. Her days are numbered.
680. JRRP
Quoting 678. saltydog1327:

ok, who is all up to give updates right now?


See post 679. Morning Salty

Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'll have to stop you from wishcasting every hurricane to Louisiana.


Well, as we've seen so far this season, the only good spot for tropical cyclones is off the East Coast, where waters are running above-average, shear is running below-average, and it's decently moist (average-above-average instability). The issue going forward is that the we should see a ridge move into this region over the next week to two weeks (Kori has harped on it plenty...) meaning that surface pressures in this region should increase. This should lower the chances of development in this region.

The potential re-intensification of El Nino in the East Pacific this fall means that we really have two months...this month and next month...to get substantial activity.
Hey guess what, genius? That ridge will allow the Gulf of Mexico to open up.

Kori 1

Cody 0
Quoting 682. KoritheMan:


Hey guess what, genius? That ridge will allow the Gulf of Mexico to open up.

Kori 1

Cody 0



Depending on where it sets up. Based on my home town bias; the season so far, and the fact that it has had quite a few years of bridging all the way to the Gulf and points W...I'm guessing this year may be more of an E coast high set up. Pulsing back and forth from the coast to off shore. Nothing scientific here, just a guess.

Quoting 683. StormJunkie:



Depending on where it sets up. Based on my home town bias; the season so far, and the fact that it has had quite a few years of bridging all the way to the Gulf and points W...I'm guessing this year may be more of an E coast high set up. Pulsing back and forth from the coast to off shore. Nothing scientific here, just a guess.
I'm not expecting blocking, no. As nice as that would be for chasing purposes. :)

We'll see. I find myself agreeing with an oscillation between ridge and trough. But a "normal" 500 mb pattern certainly breeds more landfalls than these last few years have.
Agreed for the most part Kori. Timing will be what it comes down to.

Back to "interesting" seasons...If we only had 1 more storm and it made landfall as a Cat 2 or higher in Tampa, or Jax to Sav...Who would not consider that "interesting"? Unprecedented areas for landfall. Especially the Jax to Sav area.
Quoting 648. KoritheMan:



I don't care, lol. There's never been historical precedent for back to back years without major hurricanes in the satellite era.

If 2009 can do two, we can do at least one.
Well nothing is impossible because 2010, 2012 and 2013 all end with 19 names storms, and there wasn't a precedent in which three straight years have that number of storms. :P nights. Hope Bertha don't die while I am sleeping.
Rubbish Bertha's going to have to make a hard right turn if she wants to find the Mona Passage.

Quoting 685. StormJunkie:

Agreed for the most part Kori. Timing will be what it comes down to.

Back to "interesting" seasons...If we only had 1 more storm and it made landfall as a Cat 2 or higher in Tampa, or Jax to Sav...Who would not consider that "interesting"? Unprecedented areas for landfall. Especially the Jax to Sav area.
That's why I always laugh at most of the claims about the season being inactive.

Had Arthur been more costly or stronger, no one would notice what's happening now.
Looks like she may be making some headway N now. Headed towards Ponce to Santa Isabel area maybe?
She's really shrunk her core up through the evening.

692. JRRP

Click to enlarge. And good morning over there. I hope Bertha behaved as it should for your benefit.
Imagine growing up in the seventies and 80's without a single hurricane hitting you. EvErytime they where about to hit they curved and one of them David in 79 curved just like 50 miles away! Well then came Andrew in 1992 when it blew my roof away  and was without power in 95+ heat i really lost all interest in being hit again although I was by Katrina and Wilma in 2005 I have had enough. You have to realize that  weather is random and long term and it will do whatever it wants. You can be in a hurricane drought and then get hit over and over again.
Take it easy and let the waether happen have patience  you will get hit again question is when not if.
Quoting 654. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's always a first for everything. :)

Last month was among the driest Julys on record for the tropical Atlantic. SSTs in the MDR are the coolest since 2002. Shear is running at near record high values. SAL activity has been above-average (all of this according to CSU yesterday). I still think we'll get one (I said I had doubts yesterday, not definitely we wouldn't get one), but it'll be a tough feat.

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to
45 knots. Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed
with most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan
Puerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the
cyclone. Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours.
The shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting
a little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so.
If the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the
open Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the
solution of the SHIPS and HWRF models.

Bertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south
of the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the
west-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about
24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of
the ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then
move northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the
southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern
United States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models
which indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows
the multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.3N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.0N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 31.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 36.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Quoting 697. LargoFl:


Looks like some weather modification going on at the start of that loop.

What could the government be planning this time?


Hawaii keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Iselle
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Iselle is close to hurricane strength, and could affect Hawaii late next week.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 64.0W AT 02/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM SSE OF SAINT CROIX AND ABOUT 195 NM SE OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 61W-64W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N25W TO 19N28W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W-36W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF 16N29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
10N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 17N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF
THE WAVE AXIS WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS INDICATING
MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING E OF THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N36W. THE WAVE HAS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
37W-40W TO THE NW OF THE LOW.






two lows on the map now!

wow! big t.storms with that low at 37W-40W

Meanwhile Halong, fortunately alone in the vastness of the WPac ...



big tropical wave ready to hit the water soon!
Quoting 701. hurricanes2018:


wow! big t.storms with that low at 37W-40W


something to watch
705. vis0
Credit:: NASA
IMAGERY SUBJECT:: TS Bertha
IMAGERY PERIOD:: August 02 2014 @0807UTC till August 02 2014 @0955UTC (EDT ~4hrs earlier)

NOT OFFICIAL but let family / friends know of the possibility of localized flooding and where is higher ground, thank you.



There was only one junk hot tower yesterday morning...Looks like silly Bertha has a couple drivel hot towers going this morning.

we are starting to have some breeze in San Juan

Quoting 707. 3211976:

we are starting to have some breeze in San Juan
Is it stronger than my box fan?
Good Morning
Quoting 704. hurricanes2018:



something to watch
nice tropical wave!!!!

Quoting 707. 3211976:

we are starting to have some breeze in San Juan
Not bad for a RUBBISH  storm lol

Bertha is starting to do her job in St Bart :-) ... Hope our CaribBoy enjoys it.
Saved current webcam view with some drops. Source for updates.


Quoting 712. barbamz:


Bertha is starting to do her job in St Bart :-) ... Hope our CaribBoy enjoys it.
Saved current webcam view with some drops. Source for updates.
CaribBoy wants more than the rain. Trust me. :)
Quoting 713. KoritheMan:


CaribBoy wants more than the rain. Trust me. :)



You're certainly right, lol. He's somehow greedy :-)
More monsoon related victims in India with another catastrophic landslide:

Hundreds Reported Missing After Landslide in Nepal
NYT, by BHADRA SHARMA and GARDINER HARRISAUG. 2, 2014

Prof. Petley already has some analyses in his landslide blog:
2 August 2014: Sunkoshi in Nepal: a valley blocking landslide crisis


TPW shows the Indian monsoon in full swing now.


invest 97E!!!

Wow. Cool weather on East Coast of U.S. continues. Hi of 76 degrees in Raleigh yesterday with on and off light showers and temps in upper 60's much of the day. The real surprise is dew points in mid-60's. Five nights in a row of sleeping with windows open. Today more of the same with maybe some more serious storms. This trough that started Monday is persistent.
718. 606
Good morning tropical storm Bertha came through the Windward Islands yesterday. There was very little rain and wind here in St. Lucia associated with the this system. I guess since yesterday was a public holiday it may have put a damper on some of the activities planned. This morning there is still some shower activity. Things should clear up as the day progresses. Residents in Puerto Rico I hope you get rain to help alleviate the drought situation there.
The eastern half of the Greater Antilles couldn't have been on a much better position.



As a side note a band of 50KTS winds should be approaching SE PR. This was measured via radar at 6000 feet, so at the surface a 40 to 45MPH could be experienced in the heavier showers and/or storm that mixes this down to the SFC.

40WEST?

Quoting 714. barbamz:



You're certainly right, lol. He's somehow greedy :-)
Not exactly hard to realize when I share the hurricane desire. :P

Quoting 717. sprague:

Wow. Cool weather on East Coast of U.S. continues. Hi of 76 degrees in Raleigh yesterday with on and off light showers and temps in upper 60's much of the day. The real surprise is dew points in mid-60's. Five nights in a row of sleeping with windows open. Today more of the same with maybe some more serious storms. This trough that started Monday is persistent.
Disappearing soon. Enjoy it while you can. Wish it was that cool here.
Good morning

Just got back from picking up my daily dose of coffee and had a look around the bay side.

The guys are out selling fish and the majority of fishing boats have been pulled out of the water. Very grey-looking out there with some good gusts of wind and light bands of rain have just started.

Lindy


Its raining hard here in southern Puerto Rico, there are some strong cells about to hit us
Quoting 723. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

Just got back from picking up my daily dose of coffee and had a look around the bay side.

The guys are out selling fish and the majority of fishing boats have been pulled out of the water. Very grey-looking out there with some good gusts of wind and light bands of rain have just started.

Lindy


Which island are you on ?
Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bertha passed south of St Croix this morning. Nothing significant other than winds to 45 mph in squalls, mist and rain. A rain band just affected the island with gusty winds. Surf is up and seas are disturbed on the south shore/east end of the island. It looks like it will be a rainy morning here with that blob of convection bringing more squalls. Emergency dispatchers on the island reported a few power lines down and at least one home caught fire when power was restored after an outage early this morning.
Quoting CaribbeanIslands:


Which island are you on ?


I'm on the south side of St. Thomas.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...OLD BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENT WITH
CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLCH AND WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE AREA. IR SAT SHOWS SOME NOCTERNAL COOLING TOPS
WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PERSISTENT EAST COAST
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THE OLD BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
3KM WRF SHOWS SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY
AROUND 18Z TODAY DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE AS GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE
WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH. FORECAST REFLECTS AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
TODAY HIGHER SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
LOW SFC WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME FOG TO AREAS
AS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF LA THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...PERISTENT TROUGH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MID WEEK
LOWERING POPS AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS... POPS RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

Trough finally lifts out taking Bertha with it.......

(4 am New Orleans Discussion)
Quoting 694. barbamz:


Click to enlarge. And good morning over there. I hope Bertha behaved as it should for your benefit.

At 5:30am we had a 5 minute shower in Bayamon. Now is very cloudy and breeze.
Good morning!
It's looking ominous outside, but not raining yet. That should change soon enough.
Closer look
Quoting CaribbeanIslands:

Yes, I see some strong cells lining up to affect PR. Based on Doppler radar, the center should be passing near Mayaguez/south-western portion of the island soon. Lightning and thunder over some parts of St. Croix right now. Have a blessed and safe day all.
735. Relix
Seems to me its aiming for the eastern DR tip. Boo.
Started to rain in Old San Juan. Rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!
Here's a question, look at the storms around the Bahamas. If Bertha is going to make the turn north, how come the storms in the Bahamas are not flowing to the north as well?
Quoting 727. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I'm on the south side of St. Thomas.


Okay, nice!! Stay safe
Good Morning..

My weather radio upped and died. Now I'm trying to find a live stream from Puerto Rico and it seems that Puerto Rico doesn't have a working station. I find that hard to believe. Either that or I'm being very dense or they served me decaf coffee this morning!
Looking at radar it seems a little due west at the moment.
Reporting from San Juan a heavy shower and looking at radar much more is comming.My station had a 32 mph gust with this band. Good to welcome a TS that is bringing the needed rain to at least suspend the rationing of water programed to begin next week. I will be reporting during the day pending no power outage or no internet.
looks like nws san juan forecast of 4-6 inches on the southern slopes near ponce might come true. i drove around the island a few yrs ago (high school reunion) the bread basket growing areas are near ponce (southern side). they are going to get it good
Quoting 742. Tropicsweatherpr:

Reporting from San Juan a heavy shower.My station had a 32 mph gust with this band. Good to welcome a TS that is bringing the needed rain to at least suspend the rationing of water programed to begin next week. I will be reporting during the day pending no power outage or no internet. in what town are you located?
Beautiful, breezy morning here in Rincón. Vamos a ver...
Here on the heights of St. Barths we are feeling Bertha still...30mph sustained and gusts of 45+..long heavy gusts lasting up to 10 minutes...if that still counts as gusts...LOL St. Martin/Sint Maarten is receiving the same. All this from the radial arm of Bertha trailing behind. The rains were moderate from 4am to 7am and are getting ready to begin again in earnest for a few hours more. Our weather station here is shielded by the bulk of the island and sits on a small hill about 50' above the harbor entrance so winds on the heigh portions of the island 400' to 800' get a bit more wind speed, but the island is easily the most secure and prepared for tropical weather in the caribbean. Hurricane Luis in 1998 (Cat5) barely did any wind damage at all, save storm surge in the business of Gustavia and St. Jean. No power outages today...so far...We might have picked up 3/4" of rain so far at our villa, but we need it badly!!! So more is still hoped for...

Any word from Caribboy this morning? He's on the far East side of the island and they might have had even more wind...we're shielded by a 450'-500' hill/mountain (400' SSW facing).
Stop raining in Old San Juan, hope is raining over the mountains. If it not rain enough we will have shortage soon.
Quoting 744. luigi18:




Santurce.
well look who is still around. so its bertha now. before i went to work it seemed the general opinion was that 93l was r.i.p. can someone explain what changed? how did 93l become bertha when it seemed to be losing the battle yesterday? tia!
Quoting 747. Eugeniopr:

Stop raining in Old San Juan, hope is raining over the mountains. If it not rain enough we will have shortage soon.


If this arm of the storm will rotate your way from St. Barths/St. Martin you will get some good sustained rain, but maybe not the 4-6" predicted...but we can hope for you!
Quoting 750. SiestaCpl:



If this arm of the storm will rotate your way from St. Barths/St. Martin you will get some good sustained rain, but maybe not the 4-6" predicted...but we can hope for you!
This is just begining , wait a few hour and will see
Quoting 746. SiestaCpl:

Here on the heights of St. Barths we are feeling Bertha still...30mph sustained and gusts of 45+..long heavy gusts lasting up to 10 minutes...if that still counts as gusts...LOL St. Martin/Sint Maarten is receiving the same. All this from the radial arm of Bertha trailing behind. The rains were moderate from 4am to 7am and are getting ready to begin again in earnest for a few hours more. Our weather station here is shielded by the bulk of the island and sits on a small hill about 50' above the harbor entrance so winds on the heigh portions of the island 400' to 800' get a bit more wind speed, but the island is easily the most secure and prepared for tropical weather in the caribbean. Hurricane Luis in 1998 (Cat5) barely did any wind damage at all, save storm surge in the business of Gustavia and St. Jean. No power outages today...so far...We might have picked up 3/4" of rain so far at our villa, but we need it badly!!! So more is still hoped for...

Any word from Caribboy this morning? He's on the far East side of the island and they might have had even more wind...we're shielded by a 450'-500' hill/mountain (400' SSW facing).

Take care ,will keep you posted from San Juan!
753. ryang
Quoting 750. SiestaCpl:



If this arm of the storm will rotate your way from St. Barths/St. Martin you will get some good sustained rain, but maybe not the 4-6" predicted...but we can hope for you!


Hope you are right and thank you. I think the Caicos are having worst weather than us.
757. Relix
This storm has an attitude. Very, very breezy and some heavy rains reported. A big band is impacting the middle of the island and I am reading its a pretty tough band. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bigger event than Irene back in 2011, that was a major bust.
At 22 mph it will be a short event.... But the good news is the rain...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...155 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...135 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO Frances VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Raining hard now in bayamon Puerto Rico uujhhuuuuuu. Thanks god for bringing beautiful storm Bertha.
Based on the NHC projected path the center of Bertha is going to pass right through the Mona Passage (maybe cutting the S.E. corner of D.R.).
So Bertha has a real chance of gaining strength once she gets into the Atlantic.
VirginIslandsVisitor - How are things in St. Thomas this morning? Just wondering because my brother is living down there right now. He's a project manager for the new Margaritaville condo's they are building right now.
Bertha this morning looks like the much needed rainstorm the islands need...but where's her center??



All I see is a face.
Quoting sunlinepr:
At 22 mph it will be a short event.... But the good news is the rain...



Luckily P.R., V.I. etc are on the east side of the system, because there's nothing on the west side of the system.
Still ONE Model putting Bertha Up the west coast of florida........................................... .............
Quoting nocanesplease:
Raining hard now in bayamon Puerto Rico uujhhuuuuuu. Thanks god for bringing beautiful storm Bertha.


Thanks God indeed... Bertha took the right path in order to take care of business.

If you need rain you really don't want to be on the W and SW side of it. So PR and the upper Lesser Antilles are in the sweet spot.
Quoting 765. Sfloridacat5:



Luckily P.R., V.I. etc are on the east side of the system, because there's nothing on the west side of the system.


Which is somewhat good. For Bertha at least. If the storm passes between the DR and PR, then the less she'll be affected.
cant see a part of the drs blog due to a pop up ikea. sure would like to see what dr masters has to say
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Bertha this morning looks like the much needed rainstorm the islands need...but where's her center??



All I see is a face.


Use the visible satellite and add the NHC forecasted path. That gives you the best idea of where their center is located.
It's located on the western edge of the convection. But recently there's been some convection firing near the center making it harder to see.
The center is heading for the extreme S.W. tip of P.R./Mona Passage.
Quoting PcolaSurf182:
VirginIslandsVisitor - How are things in St. Thomas this morning? Just wondering because my brother is living down there right now. He's a project manager for the new Margaritaville condo's they are building right now.


Good morning

Things are a little gusty with light showers right now.
Quoting 766. LargoFl:

Still ONE Model putting Bertha Up the west coast of florida........................................... .............


That model is a true outlier.
Based on radar I think the center of Bertha will pass to the South of Puerto Rico. I'm not sure if the center will make a clear pass through the Mona Passage.
The center will most likely spend a little more time over the Dominican Republic.
High clouds rolling into W PR, and a freshening breeze from the WNW (very rare here). No rain yet, but we've had 14 " since 11 June. Makes you wonder about what it would have been like in years long past, for the wind to suddenly shift from an unusual direction...
Our foul weather on St. Croix started with squall lines around 2:30AM AST. The heaviest rain so far was around 6:00AM and further rain is coming and going. My rain gauge is partially plugged with bird crap so totals are delayed as it drips through but right now I am showing 0.95".

My peak gust was 52mph earlier. I'm at about 650 ft. ASL. At present the wind is North of East, sustained at around 15, gusting to 30+. The barometric reading, if it's accurate is 30.11 and steady. I would have guessed a lower number?

Power down only once and back up fairly quickly. Our utility is not know for reliability so that's a gift. Most all structures here can do 125mph standing on their head so damage from this one is most unlikely.

I'd prefer to see another inch or so of rain but with no flood damage perhaps I shouldn't be greedy.
Thanks for the update
Quoting 776. UPRM1CIMA:

High clouds rolling into W PR, and a freshening breeze from the WNW (very rare here). No rain yet, but we've had 14 " since June 11. Makes you wonder about what it would have been like in years long past, for the wind to suddenly shift from an unusual direction...

How's our alma mater?
Looking at Bertha's path, am I correct that she went thru Herbert Box #1? If so......If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major hurricanes miss these boxes, they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes, approx 335 miles by 335 miles, includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties.

Any thoughts you all???
Quoting 779. nocanesplease:


How's our alma mater?


If you know enough to ask, you probably know the answer! In military parlance, snafu...
It started raining. I hear thunder in the distance. This should be fun.
Did andrew go through herberts box or katrina to make it to fl
Lots of Puerto Rican bloggers nowadays, I see. I remember when I was a true outlier.
Waiting for the winds to pass so I can surf.


its starting to go up!!
Quoting 780. CitikatzSouthFL:

Looking at Bertha's path, am I correct that she went thru Herbert Box #1? If so......If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major hurricanes miss these boxes, they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes, approx 335 miles by 335 miles, includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties.

Any thoughts you all???


If this hits Florida it will be showers and breezes, because the only way it will is if she falls apart to a wave; which by the way is somewhat possible. So rain for South and ECFL Tuesday with 20 mph gusts is still a possibility. This would be a norm for FL in summer, so nothing exciting from this event here.
787. Relix
Quoting 784. serialteg:

Lots of Puerto Rican bloggers nowadays, I see. I remember when I was a true outlier.
Waiting for the winds to pass so I can surf.


Yeah there were usually like four of us :P
Quoting 783. tkdaime:

Did andrew go through herberts box or katrina to make it to fl

There are exceptions...not sure about Katrina...I do not think Andrew did, but Frances went thru #1 and Wilma went thru #2.
Quoting 786. sebastianflorida:


yeah even if she came straight into florida..she would be a good rain maker with maybe some strong breezes or gusts..nothing we cant handle.
Quoting 781. UPRM1CIMA:



If you know enough to ask, you probably know the answer! In military parlance, snafu...

Cmn'n can't be that bad!!!
We have a colony of more than 60 Red Footed Tortoises averaging 12'-24" long...and they are struggling with the drought here brought on by the "near El Nino" conditions. We have more fear of fire than storms this year here in St. Barths. Our cistern dropped all the way to 26% before rebounding past 50%, but we do have a desalination plant so we are safe as an island for water. There is no agriculture here, safe goat cheese....LOL...oh yes and salt...not actual agriculture. PR is huge for fruit and crops for export so the rains there are badly needed! Hope we can send you lots more rain from our end of the Carib...we need your romaine lettuce, mangos, and other fruits to feed our hungry horde of Tortoises!!!!
Quoting 784. serialteg:

Lots of Puerto Rican bloggers nowadays, I see. I remember when I was a true outlier.
Waiting for the winds to pass so I can surf.
its great to see people in the actual area being affected..posting here along with us, letting us know how it is in their area...
Alot of ull in the atlantic that will make steering difficult for bertha
Quoting 773. rmbjoe1954:



That model is a true outlier.
yes indeed..the other day the Bams model has the same track too..i doubt it would happen but..one never knows
Quoting 790. nocanesplease:


Cmn'n can't be that bad!!!


Perspectives vary... Are you still on the island?
vertical instability for the atlantic? wonder how the data that determine the average is determined. now with bertha td2 & new tropical wave its far from being inactive.
Hi nrt.What happened to this mornings mission that is not flying? We will not have a plane out there until the evening when the next one departs.
Quoting 795. UPRM1CIMA:



Perspectives vary... Are you still on the island?

Sure. I'm enjoying Bertha's rain in Bayamon. I may add half my time enjoying beautiful Rincon el pueblo de los bellos atardeceres
Quoting 782. WeatherNerdPR:

It started raining. I hear thunder in the distance. This should be fun.
Nothing here yet
Quoting 794. LargoFl:

yes indeed..the other day the Bams model has the same track too..i doubt it would happen but..one never knows


Bertha is a true outlier...lol.

The NHC projected path is looking more and more set in stone, but a change in projected strength of Bertha, change in westward expansion of High and/or more than anticpated retrograding of east coast trough could still throw a wrench in the works. There's also the possibility that Bertha slows down more than expected down around the Bahamas.

Quoting 799. nocanesplease:


Sure. I'm enjoying Bertha's rain in Bayamon. I may add half my time enjoying beautiful Rincon el pueblo de los bellos atardeceres


Well perhaps our paths will cross. I share the sentiments in your user name btw! Still no rain here in extreme W PR, and the sun is strong through the patchy high clouds. WNW wind ~10-15kts.
Nothing about bertha is set in stone she has beaten the odds already she will do what she wants plenty of moisture to the west where she is heading
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


That model is a true outlier.


And that model takes Bertha across Haiti and Cuba. If that were the case, Bertha would be nothing but a wave by the time she got to Florida.
Quoting 766. LargoFl:

Still ONE Model putting Bertha Up the west coast of florida........................................... .............
you know seems every storm always has one model that always points to tampa bay.... lol
Quoting 796. islander101010:

vertical instability for the atlantic? wonder how the data that make the average is determined.


its right here!!!

Here in St. Barths the winds have dropped to just 14mph from our previous 30mph...gust are still 45+mph...rain is light and squally now...a bit more to come before it ends here...hope this rain does make it to the Virgin Islands and PR!!
Quoting 765. Sfloridacat5:



Luckily P.R., V.I. etc are on the east side of the system, because there's nothing on the west side of the system.
It looks west of the forecast track, but i have not grabbed the coffee yet.
Good Morning glad to see Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands receiving some rain from Tropical Storm Bertha, hopefully it will help to alleviate some of the drought problems in those countries.

Aug. 2, 2014



Aug. 2, 2013



CFS ensembles indicating another area we may need to watch approaching the islands in 5-6 days.

Bertha will likely get disrupted soon
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
655 am EDT Sat Aug 2 2014

Synopsis...
a front will remain stalled near the coast through the weekend.
This will bring a heightened risk for flooding as widespread
showers and thunderstorms plague the area for much of the weekend.
The airmass will only slowly dry out during the middle and later
portions of next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 6:30 am Saturday...no changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussions follow:

Conditions remain favorable for periods of heavy rain today and
tonight..so will be keeping the resent Flood Watch up through the
near term and beyond. A nearly stationary front is analyzed over
our NC and SC coastal counties this morning. Model consensus has
this front wavering back and forth through the period...pushing northwest
later this morning and then back towards the coast overnight. At
the upper levels a long-wave trough will maintain its hold over
eastern Continental U.S. As a series of weak disturbances round its base and
move NE over the eastern Carolinas. Water vapor loops show a
tropical plume of moisture continuing to advect NE over the
forecast area. Model soundings also continue to show a deeply
moist column through the period...with a moderately unstable
airmass and p/west values in the 2 inch range. All elements thus
remain in place for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
with the attendant heavy rain threat continuing today and
overnight.

Extensive cloud cover and precipitation will limit maximum
temperatures to the middle 80s today. Overnight lows will hover in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 3 am Saturday...some question as to whether or not Flood
Watch will remain in effect until its current expiration time of
Sunday evening. Through much of Sunday moisture remains copious
with precipitable water values 2.00-2.2 inches. What may be lacking however is
deep forcing for ascent. Best positive vorticity advection appears over by 18z and the
upper right entrance divergence on the wane. Model guidance quantitative precipitation forecast
now looking more lackluster. There is little value in making
changes to the watch at this point however...due to the
uncertainty involved and also the possibility that should Saturday
turn out wet as anticipated then by Sunday even minor rain amounts
may lead to some flooding issues with the saturated soils. Deepest
moisture shifting east some on Monday and the threat for heavy
rain may do the same. For now have discounted the large wave shown
in the WRF. The model is seeming having trouble resolving the
upper low currently in the Bahamas and Bertha...and allowing for
the former to become the dominant circulation. Rain chances will
diminish but linger nevertheless into Monday night as the weak middle
level trough axis remains to our west and the surface boundary can
still be made out near the coast on surface forecasts. Daytime highs
very suppressed again on Sunday but show some recovery towards
climatology by Monday.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...weakening middle level troughiness remains to our
west Tuesday and Wednesday. There should be an increasingly
westerly flow developing instead of southwesterly flow however
yielding a trend towards more climatological temperatures and rain
chances. As the trough moves off the coast on Thursday a weak
front may push through but it is tough to tell this far out if it
has any real effects on sensible weather. Building middle level ridge
over Gomex Thursday and Friday with weak/typical surface flow
should bring fewer thunderstorms and higher temperatures.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 12z...very similar synoptic situation as yesterday with a
coastal front/trough that is pretty much stationary. Most of the
precipitation will stay offshore...however the coastal terminals will see
intermittent IFR conditions at times with high precipitable waters and low lfc's.
Ceilings will bounce between VFR and MVFR with brief periods of IFR
especially over the next couple of hours. Ilm is currently
experiencing easterly winds...more northerly at The Myrtles. Look
for all coastal terminals to have onshore flow later today. There
may be a lull in the convection later this morning...but it should
pick back up after 18z as another weak impulse rides up the coast.

Extended outlook...shra/tsra likely with periods of MVFR
conditions through Tuesday as a front stalls and finally
dissipates over the eastern Carolinas. A chance of showers
continues on Wednesday late.

&&

Marine...
near term /through tonight/...
as of 6:30 am Saturday...no changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussions follow:

Little change over the waters from present conditions today and
tonight. A nearly stationary front will remain inland or just near
the coast today and tonight...keeping winds southerly and in the
10 to 15 knots range...with seas of 2 to 4 feet. Expect extensive
shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters as a tropical
plume of moisture moves north across the waters.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 3 am Saturday...southerly winds expected for most of the
period with a frontal boundary weakening very near the coast. The
surface trough associated with the boundary will keep wind speeds
fairly light especially come Monday as the front weakens even
more. There is a model solution that is currently being discounted
as erroneous...it generates a strengthening low that moves
parallel to the coast. This solution would imply a turn to a more
northerly flow and higher wind speeds along with building seas.
This will only occur if the upper low now in the Bahamas generates
a surface low that ends up dominating the wind fields over
tropical system Bertha...which will be passing even further
offshore. There could be a complex interaction between the
two...but the current forecast is for the well offshore Bertha to
keep its identity. Any swells associated with this system will
likely impact the area just beyond the short term period.



Long term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
as of 3 am Saturday...Bertha makes its closest approach...and it
isn't going to be a very close one...on Tuesday. Winds should
retain their southerly component but may vary from SW to southeast. A
little swell energy to affect the local area with some slightly
higher seas...but this will obviously hinge on the strength and
track. For now it seems we may avoid any headlines. Back to climatology
norms on Wednesday with west Atlantic high pressure only weakly
exerting influence locally for a light SW flow.

&&

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for scz017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.

NC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Marine...none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...mbb
near term...rek
short term...rjd/mbb
long term...mbb
aviation...43
marine...rek/mbb
813. Relix
H umacao, PR

Genevieve came back...AGAIN...

1. Thunderstorms associated with former tropical depression Genevieve have become better organized during the past 6 hours. The center of this system, which is moving westward at about 10 mph, is located about 515 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Latest satellite data indicate that Genevieve is redeveloping into a tropical depression, and advisories will be reinitiated for this system at 5 am HST this morning.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 100 percent.
Good morning boys and girls.

Not every system which passes over land breaks up. There are many factors, forward speed, strength of system, atmospheric conditions after passing the terrain, an many more.Even if Bertha is disrupted, I have believed and posted from the beginning, that after passage through the Bahamas, there is a very good chance of getting close to hurricane status. While it is true that many models have shown it and dropped it, I still am of the opinion it is possible. Now you all know how humble my opinions are.

relix access denied?
Now a few people jumped on ncstorm last night when she posted some GFDL models showing a much stronger system, but they were good models.

Quoting 810. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning glad to see Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands receiving some rain from Tropical Storm Bertha, hopefully it will help to alleviate some of the drought problems in those countries.




Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are territories of the United States, not independent nations, but yes, Bertha should help with the drought situation across the Lesser and Greater Antilles.
Now of course the Doc will probably be on in a few minutes and no one will ever see these comments, but what can you do. And by the way, I have sent a numbers of names to this company with a standing order :)

How cCan I post pictures here?
822. Relix
Quoting 817. islander101010:

relix access denied?


Ah, must be because its a FB Picture: Click Here
Flood warning N.E. P.R.
Quoting 811. hydrus:

Bertha will likely get disrupted soon



I don't see much rotation in those first few visible images at all. I have to wonder if there is still a fully closed circulation there. I just watched a 40 frame loop of the 248 mi San Juan Radar and I see virtually no indications of a surface or mid level circulation. I think Bertha may be opening into a strong wave, but I'll wait until the Hurricane Hunters confirm.
I see " Our Lil Fren " is still sailing along at a fast clip.




Meanwhile back at the farm.....a rather muggy overcast start to the day, after yesterdays deluge of rain and hail.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 02 Aug 6:59 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 02 Aug 6:50 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
02 Aug 6:50 am PDT 74 55 52 S 2G03 OK

And looking for this today from the weather gods:


Area Forecast Discussion Link to RSS feed
• Go Back • Print Friendly • Version: Latest Older • Font: A A A A •
• Turn Dictionary Off • Product FAQ • *Active Weather Story* •

FXUS66 KSGX 021112 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
412 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOLER BUT HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 3 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/ARIZONA
BORDER...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA.
FOG SATELLITE SHOWED A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND ALONG MOST AREAS OF COASTAL SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE
COUNTY. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD OVER
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WEST OVER CENTRAL IMPERIAL COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH DESERT EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST OVER THE LOW DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
IN THAT DIRECTION TODAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SHIFT THE
FLOW TO SE AND E ALONG MOST OF THE COLUMN BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...RISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE ESSENTIAL
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO GENERATE 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION...AND FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH- SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY START TO
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER-HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.
THE WEATHER WILL STILL FEEL SLIGHTLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNT OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...STORMS AROUND THE REGION MAY HELP TO MIX OUT ANY LOW
STRATUS AT TIMES.

THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
POSITIONING WELL TO THE EAST NEAR TEXAS...AND A TROUGH ANCHORING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HELP CREATE DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH A MODERATE TO SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.


Quoting 800. Gearsts:

Nothing here yet


I hope all our friends in PR get a little relief from the drought. Although some of the estimates are pretty high, I know you guys really need it.
827. Relix
Quoting 824. VegasRain:



I don't see much rotation in those first few visible images at all. I have to wonder if there is still a fully closed circulation there. I just watched a 40 frame loop of the 248 mi San Juan Radar and I see virtually no indications of a surface or mid level circulation. I think Bertha may be opening into a strong wave, but I'll wait until the Hurricane Hunters confirm.


Yeah i was trying to find a COC in radar but no go. There's a low level cyclonic turning in the clouds seen in visible so there's definitely something down there.
Quoting 810. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning glad to see Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands receiving some rain from Tropical Storm Bertha, hopefully it will help to alleviate some of the drought problems in those countries.

Aug. 2, 2014



Aug. 2, 2013



CFS ensembles indicating another area we may need to watch approaching the islands in 5-6 days.




Hmm we should keep eye on that
That's how Bertha got started
By CFS
Quoting Grothar:
Good morning boys and girls.

Not every system which passes over land breaks up. There are many factors, forward speed, strength of system, atmospheric conditions after passing the terrain, an many more.Even if Bertha is disrupted, I have believed and posted from the beginning, that after passage through the Bahamas, there is a very good chance of getting close to hurricane status. While it is true that many models have shown it and dropped it, I still am of the opinion it is possible. Now you all know how humble my opinions are.



NHC's official forecast has Bertha as a Hurricane as she passes between the Eastcoast of the U.S. and Bermuda.
Quoting 820. Grothar:

Now of course the Doc will probably be on in a few minutes and no one will ever see these comments, but what can you do. And by the way, I have sent a numbers of names to this company with a standing order :)




I like plussing people.
Quoting 816. Grothar:




Such bright colors to start my day! :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 824. VegasRain:



I don't see much rotation in those first few visible images at all. I have to wonder if there is still a fully closed circulation there. I just watched a 40 frame loop of the 248 mi San Juan Radar and I see virtually no indications of a surface or mid level circulation. I think Bertha may be opening into a strong wave, but I'll wait until the Hurricane Hunters confirm.

I think it's still there. Since its LLC has been tucked underneath the convection again, it's been difficult to see.
Quoting 815. Grothar:

Good morning boys and girls.

Not every system which passes over land breaks up. There are many factors, forward speed, strength of system, atmospheric conditions after passing the terrain, an many more.Even if Bertha is disrupted, I have believed and posted from the beginning, that after passage through the Bahamas, there is a very good chance of getting close to hurricane status. While it is true that many models have shown it and dropped it, I still am of the opinion it is possible. Now you all know how humble my opinions are.




Good Morning Class! Good Morning Most Humble One!
From the NWS, i can live with this.

ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION...AND FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH- SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY START TO
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER-HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.
THE WEATHER WILL STILL FEEL SLIGHTLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNT OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...STORMS AROUND THE REGION MAY HELP TO MIX OUT ANY LOW
STRATUS AT TIMES.

Quoting 824. VegasRain:



I don't see much rotation in those first few visible images at all. I have to wonder if there is still a fully closed circulation there. I just watched a 40 frame loop of the 248 mi San Juan Radar and I see virtually no indications of a surface or mid level circulation. I think Bertha may be opening into a strong wave, but I'll wait until the Hurricane Hunters confirm.
Quoting 827. Relix:



Yeah i was trying to find a COC in radar but no go. There's a low level cyclonic turning in the clouds seen in visible so there's definitely something down there.

Yep I'm been trying to pinpoint a location it's becoming hard
If I'm not mistaken we should be getting a P-3 RECON flight in a few mins as well as a C-130 RECON that should have been in the air a couple of hours ago and C-130 RECON this evening and tonight
839. SLU
Quoting 810. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning glad to see Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands receiving some rain from Tropical Storm Bertha, hopefully it will help to alleviate some of the drought problems in those countries.

Aug. 2, 2014



Aug. 2, 2013



CFS ensembles indicating another area we may need to watch approaching the islands in 5-6 days.




The CFS nailed Bertha very early.
.
A view from Moca, PR.
A > 50% chance of Thunderstorms today and tonight.

And a moisture influx is going on now.

Quoting 842. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A > 50% chance of Thunderstorms today and tonight.

And a moisture influx is going on now. See the ULL Mid Baja California coming north....should help trigger the moisture influx.


Quoting 841. Yahuekano:

A view from Moca, PR.



Hey, Question, PR has a town called Moca too?
Quoting 839. SLU:



The CFS nailed Bertha very early.
Yep...And the CFS has more activity coming, and one or two being large systems. Most appear to stay away from the U.S mainland, but the Northern Antilles may be a much different story. Other points of interest is that the MDR will still have dry and sinking air, which will keep storms weak until they enter the Central Caribbean ( if they get there at all ). The home grown variety will have to be watched too, as the model indicates two more such storms forming..
Quoting Jewelsblues:


Hey, Question, PR has a town called Moca too?
Yes, my beautiful home toen of Moca, Northwest of the island of PR
Quoting hydrus:
Yep...And the CFS has more activity coming, and one or two being large systems. Most appear to stay away from the U.S mainland, but the Northern Antilles may be a much different story. Other points of interest is that the MDR will still have dry and sinking air, which will keep storms weak until they enter the Central Caribbean ( if they get there at all ). The home grown variety will have to be watched too, as the model indicates two more such storms forming..
img src="http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/date n/proficharts/en/cfs/2014/08/01/basis00/noat/pslv/ 14083112_0100.gif" its having some fun this year with all the little storns..