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Tropical Storm Bertha forms--and sets a record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on July 03, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha is here. Overnight, a significant amount of heavy thunderstorm activity built up around the center, aided by Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) about 26°C (1°C above average for this date). This temperature is right at the threshold of where tropical storms can form. Also aiding the storm is 5-10 knots of wind shear. Bertha has good organization and a favorable environment for intensification, and should continue to slowly intensify today. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, and the main impediment to future intensification will be a region of colder SSTs the storm will track over on Friday and Saturday. These cooler SSTs have created some stable air to the northwest of Bertha. Evidence of this stable air in satellite imagery (Figure 1) can be seen in the form of a large area of stratocumulus clouds to the northwest of Bertha.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bertha shortly before becoming a tropical storm. Note the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the storm's northwest, indicating stable air lying over cooler SSTs.

The forecast
Most of the computer models foresee a west-northwest track into the mid-Atlantic over the next five days, with a possible recurvature to the north by the end of the period. Whether this recurvature takes place depends on how strong Bertha gets. A larger, stronger storm will be more likely to "feel" the approach of the approaching trough of low pressure and recurve. A shallower, weaker storm might be able to avoid recurvature and continue west-northwest towards Bermuda.

The hurricane season of 2008 sets a new record
Today's formation of Bertha at 25° West longitude is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. It is also the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the month of July. Reliable records of Eastern Atlantic storms go back to 1967, the beginning of the geostationary satellite era.

Is the formation of Bertha a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably. According the the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (93L) that passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands last night has grow less organized this morning, due to an increase in wind shear to 15-20 knots. The disturbance is a rather small one, and thus vulnerable to wind shear. QuikSCAT satellite imagery from this morning shows no sign of a surface circulation. The SHIPS intensity model predicts wind shear will increase above 30 knots by Saturday morning over 93L, and it is unlikely this disturbance will develop into a tropical depression.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the development of a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday. The tropics are getting active!

I'll post an update Friday morning. Happy 4th of July weekend!
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Count me in, too! I know how to tack close to the wind!
stormw nailed the weather...he's good....prolly gonna loose y'all soon...have fun...keep Bertha away from me til Sat.....
1003. pottery
996, but if it does not strengthen as anticipated, then the surface steering has a lot to say in this.
Yo gary ol' pal...i lost my house during andrew, no need to watch a video. But thanks anyways
996. Drakoen 11:21 PM EDT on July 03, 2008

Isn't Bertha still considered to be in the Mid-lower levels....it may be projected to go to higher levels but, i don't see it getting much stronger than it is now.
Press - hope you're having a great time!
974.............

pottery.... this is what I felt last night.....

the models do not perform well, and have had little test on this solution......

we are indeed in un-charted waters....

I still believe by saturday that things will become more clear..... until then, there will be some anxiety! LOL
1003. pottery 11:24 PM EDT on July 03, 2008

Exactly
1010. MrSea
post 998 the XTRP is not really a model, it is just a line extended from the current path of the storm. for instance if the storm is currently moving WNW the XTRP will continue to move it WNW for the whole forecast period
1011. pottery
Thel, very true.

Beell, got it. OK.
1012. Drakoen
1000. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 3:23 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
So drakoen what do you think of my synopsis and probability in post 988?


Not bad. The southward shift is interesting because none of the models featured that. We'll have to wait for the 00z runs. Bertha can't make up her mind first she's further north now shes further south.
WTF???

is everybody that posts something about xtrap considered an idiot? LOL
Exactly what thel was saying DF
1016. Drakoen
1005. TampaSpin 3:25 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
996. Drakoen 11:21 PM EDT on July 03, 2008

Isn't Bertha still considered to be in the Mid-lower levels....it may be projected to go to higher levels but, i don't see it getting much stronger than it is now.


Stronger systems gain more vertical height. A moderate-strong tropical storm can feel the weakness in the mid to upper level ridge.
I have Drakoen's approval! My self-esteem is complete :) Now I will get off the computer.
1018. pottery
Thanks Press. But sorry to hear about the shorthandedness of Lady Crew. I seem to have a surplus right now, so I think I'll stay here. heheheh
1019. MrSea
1013. DestinJeff 3:32 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

Post 998 wanted to know why XTRP seemed to be an outlier
Hey SJ..... thanks for the vote of confidence! LOL

Good to see you thel
I would love to be more optimistic in making this seem like more of a threat than it is but to be totally honest with ourselves: Bertha is currently deepening and moving due west or maybe even south of due west, this may be short lived but nonetheless it will bring it over warmer waters than expected making it deeper, which would favor a recurvature later in the forecast period. The current veer to the west will not put it south enough to avoid the weakness that is currently forecast to occur altogether. All that we can hope for is that the trough not be as strong...and im hoping for the sake of more anxiety.
1019.....

NEGATIVE.....

998...
"haven't checked the blog in several hours..... but this xtrap vs. model consensus is very troubling......."

mrsea, have you been drinking, or do you just have a vivid imagination???
I just looked at all the Stearing at all levels and Bertha should head WSW for awhile until it starts the other side of the high, it all about timing if it does not speed up it will miss the opening.
My bet is if it stays south it's destroyed by the westerlies and if it goes north it curves out to sea.
1028. Drakoen
Quoting 1025. DestinJeff:
but this xtrap vs. model consensus is very troubling.......

i think this comment was referencing earlier discussion. would expect xtrp not to be too far removed from guidance if guidance is performing well, especially on a system barely moving n of w, if not due west like current.


Exactly. That is why the XTRAP is useful.
1025.....

riii wrooo scooby!

stormj...keep Aug 15 free...we're takinthis puppy out...you're the navigator,,,there's a buoy somewhere near me...but darned if I can findher...
Press - ME TOO. Have a great time and relax. Wish we were all hanging out with you and Mrs. Press.

hey..... I was born in a day..... just not yesterday!

I am a 25 yr old with 40 yrs experience! LOL
1030....

Well..... pick me up in myrtle beach.... I'll see if I can round up some beach chicks! LOL
Sounds good press, don't get too close to that buoy!
Bertha can go where she wants for the next 5 days.....after that it will start to make a difference. So now we are all just a bunch of crazies for debating 200 north or south.......lol
XTRAP VS. MODELS.....

just tells me the are not working so well at the moment..... so forecasting using the models is not working so well at the moment....
1038. MrSea
1024. thelmores 3:36 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

mrsea, have you been drinking, or do you just have a vivid imagination???

well, maybe i decided to start my independence day celebration 20 minutes early lol. all the kids down the block seem to have started celebrating too, i bet theres more fireworks tonight than there will be tomorrow! (rain tomorrow)


1030. presslord 11:39 PM EDT on July 03, 2008

Watch that jug of Rum, black beard......LMAO
1040. pottery
Press, I read today that a buoy sank, just around where you are there. They say its just 3 feet underwater. Has not gone to the bottom yet.

Press, are you there? Press??

oh oh

( just kidding guys )
what the hell im with starting the 4th early......pop pop fizz fizz
BAMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

found it....
I don't want to be a "downcaster" but this wind shear map should help to keep things in perspective.Link
Unless I have no clue which is another distinct possibility!
clear and out here...
1041. TampaSpin 3:45 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
what the hell im with starting the 4th early......pop pop fizz fizz



LOL! if i didnt have work tommorow id be opening a beer by now.
1042. presslord 11:46 PM EDT on July 03, 2008
BAMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

found it....


which bottle did you find the one in the ocean or the one under the captains seat....hum..lol
1047. pottery
AAAAAAAAHHHHH hahahah
LOVE it.
1048. MrSea
nice anticyclone over Bertha...does that make it more or less likely to feel affects of the recurve? or neither?
For Flood...

Bertha
yea, earlier tonight, I thought we were having a civil war reenactment! LOL

Well, I'm gonna have me a Guinness, and blog some more...

so when do the next runs come out.... 2am??
Evening Folks..Could not stay away with Bertha out there....My only comment this evening is that western edge of the current position of the A-B high appears to be very near Bermuda (hence the current long-term track which brings the storm near there), and, that high is not as far down South right now as it was last year... Point is, given the current position of the high, if that does not change too much in the coming days, and the storm misses the forcasted weakness, it could be more of a potential problem anywhere from Bermuda to the coast of the North Carolinas/Virginia as opposed to Florida.....However, the caveat is the cooler SST's in those higher latitutes...If Bertha ever reaches the western edge of the high intact in 6-7 days, it may well be a very weak tropical storm, or back down to a depression by then (or go extra-tropical for that matter)....Just my humble throughts this evening and only time will tell......
1052. JLPR
Bertha appearing in the central Atlantic satellite =P

1048. MrSea 3:48 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
nice anticyclone over Bertha...does that make it more or less likely to feel affects of the recurve? or neither?


Indirect effect. the Anti cyclone could help strenthen it and then it would feel the effects of the trough and recurve.
GFS will start coming out soon thel, the rest will be out by 2.
weathermanwannabe:
This early in the season, Bertha has a lot of butts to overcome to have impact on anything except fish...IMHO.
1048. MrSea 11:48 PM EDT on July 03, 2008
Thats what the stroms flows around is the high.
1057. MrSea
1053. TheWeatherMan504 3:51 AM GMT on July 04, 2008 Hide this comment.
1048. MrSea 3:48 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
nice anticyclone over Bertha...does that make it more or less likely to feel affects of the recurve? or neither?

Indirect effect. the Anti cyclone could help strenthen it and then it would feel the ffects of the trough and recurve.


Ok i was just wondering if the anticyclone would cooperate with the weakness or work against it and make it harder/easier to curve. thanks.
Hey SJ...try this one for Flood...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtZIEQRgavQ&feature=related

Go Jerry...gotta love the guy - even after all these years of being gone...
Honestly with the MJO pulse coming next week the GOM and Carribean is where the real action will be....not Bertha WATCH!
1060. MrSea
1056. TampaSpin 3:52 AM GMT on July 04, 2008 Hide this comment.
1048. MrSea 11:48 PM EDT on July 03, 2008
Thats what the stroms flows around is the high.


Im talking about the upper level high, stacked on top of Bertha, not the A/B high to its north
Will check bertha and her butts in the morning. Less than 10 percent chance given time of year and how far west it has formed is my feeling on this one.
1055. Chicklit 11:52 PM EDT on July 03, 2008 Point noted; but please note I never used the term "hurricane" because don't think it will ever get there.....(Give me 1/2 credit....Lol)...
No problem Mr. Sea
Who is this Strom person everybody keeps talkin about?? Thought he was dead! LOL
ok - i'm done - i gotta go out and tp the neighbor's lawn still. And now I'm distracted by a dead show...(thanks JP...now you got me dancin)

"bertha don't you come round here anymore..."

Wooooo hoooooo
Even Phil is smiling...ok ok ok..night kids.

1064. thelmores 11:56 PM EDT on July 03, 2008
WU needs spell check.....lol
1068. MrSea
tampaspin good point bringing up the MJO, its kicking up some convection in the western gulf, ASCAT shows the eastern side of what looks like a broad circulation. also note the upper level anticyclone in the western caribbean
1065. melwerle 3:57 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
ok - i'm done - i gotta go out and tp the neighbor's lawn still. And now I'm distracted by a dead show...(thanks JP...now you got me dancin)

"bertha don't you come round here anymore..."

Wooooo hoooooo


Big Bertha isnt even round here yet lol
Guess everyone turned into a Pumpkin....Good Night All and Happy Fourth of July!
bertha is already south of the forcast points on all the major models, id like to see the new runs to see what they think
Yea wmw, but at least I can still type in pumpkin form :~)

GFS 00z 78hr.

Interesting...The upper level low seems to be much further N? Maybe not...

Does show signs of activity off the African coast though...
hahaha i just got rick rolled lol =)
1078. OUSHAWN
There are two ULL that are keeping anything from developing in the GOM. One is in the NW Gulf and the other inland over south Texas. As long as they are there we have no chance of anything spinning up. Anyone know what is suppose to happen to these ULL and when?
when does the blackout happen what hours?
thanks Teddy! LOL

SJ.... will that allow more westward motion?

man, I should know better than saying west in this blog! LOL
Shh vabch!!!

I think we have another week or two before it starts.
1082. pottery
Happy Independence Day, all you Americans. Have a good one, and remember, everyone is looking at you !

I'm out, but before I go-
Bertha is facing a major battle tomorrow with dry air conditions west and north of her position. Also SST's are marginal. The combination will take its toll.
But storms ( stroms too ) have a habit of surprising us , left, right and center............
Bertha appears to be strengthening at a good clip, the convection is blowing up good thanks to good old durinal max, maybe a 55-60 mph on the next advisory?
pottery, have a good night my friend....

You can watch us yanks, just don't laugh too much! LOL

keep yours obs in mind too! ;)

I think by Saturday, we should have a better handle..
o ok lol, but seriously all the models take it more nw but bertha seems to want to keep heading west, by the way sj i love ur site i go there all the time for weather
1086. yamil20
the same to you thelmores and everyone.Happy independence day!!
lets the fireworks show begins!
the navy does not say so. but it does look better organized.
iam in stealth watch mode
Not sure thel. Really need to wait and see the rest of the run.

It does show the system at 50W just south of 20N. The 12z run had it just over 20N at 47W. So it looks like the GFS is going to jump south some.

Now out to 108hrs

Wave behind it is pretty far south.
Thanks vabch! Much appreciated.
WOW.. the LATEST GFS has shifted south!!!
Notice it hits 20N when it gets 55W!!
I sense my forecast might actually come true with a westward movement

00z GFS 96 hours out Link
wow gfs has 3 systems 108 out one behind bertha and a small one in the caribbean
ahhh. I was in the Navy for 6 years.... what the hades do they know! LOL

Nav says current course and heading for another 48 hrs....not a major change in strength, maybe a little stronger.....
Newest MIMIC images show an almost due W course as of late, also shows a weakening.
that shot always makes the storms look more immpressive ts its a very nice view
1097. pottery
OK Thel.
Sometimes we laugh, sometimes we cry.
Keeps us on our toes.............
You take care. Have a great one .
This is not very good at all. and there appears to be more ridging.
iam in stealth watch mode

LOL
1087. You must click on the link, It clearly says the strength of the Storm.
The 1091 post you can see the weaknesses but, if you look at the loop of that pic the weakness is closing off now....and it is being missed...the next weakness is why the track is now further West and south....it is very clear and visible in that loop.
Bertha 108hrs GFS

55.0w/19.0n reedzone heres my complete updated track on 02l/TS/B
25.3w/13.3n
27.4w/13.9n
33.2w/14.4n
35.2w/15.1n
37.6w/16.5n
40.1w/16.9n
42.3w/17.1n
45.7w/17.8n
48.1w/18.2n
52.7w/18.6n
54.3w/18.8n
55.1w/19.1n
****STOP****
1100. CybrTeddy 4:22 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
1087. You must click on the link, It clearly says the strength of the Storm.


Its not a line to the navy site its a link to YOUTUBE!
132hrs GFS.

Three systems off of Africa. Early wave train, or just the GFS going all CMC on us?
yes definatly due west if not a little lower sj
1095.....

Mimic very interesting SJ.....
So far GFS has been doing pretty good, no? CMC seems a lot more tame as well...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2008 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 13:25:39 N Lon : 27:10:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 997.8mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -34.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.08^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

I was leaving out that slightly S movement and chalking it up to jog, but yeah it seems to be near 13.5 now.
1104. LOL!!!
You've been Rick Rolled.
55.0w/19.0n reedzone heres my complete updated track on 02l/TS/B
25.3w/13.3n
27.4w/13.9n
33.2w/14.4n
35.2w/15.1n
37.6w/16.5n
40.1w/16.9n
42.3w/17.1n
45.7w/17.8n
48.1w/18.2n
52.7w/18.6n
54.3w/18.8n
55.1w/19.1n
****STOP****


My track is in my blog, go check it out keeper!
the system behind bertha is much lower and wont get caught in the weakness of the high like bertha might, id be more worried about that one if that pans out
1058. melwerle 10:55 PM CDT on July 03, 2008
Hey SJ...try this one for Flood...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtZIEQRgavQ&feature=related

Go Jerry...gotta love the guy - even after all these years of being gone...



Some of my best friends are people I've never met...thanks Mel, SJ...so how goes the nightwatch? Looks like Bertha is going to try to miss the bridge, you think?
0z BAMS has it on a b-line for florida.
This is not good gang, not good at all! By tthe way, who predicted this and saw this arrive first, because I would like to personally command that person or those poeple right now!

Guilty.. ok yell at me, I was just doing my job lol.. It's all in my blog.
1118. Drakoen
Quoting 1104. StormJunkie:
132hrs GFS.

Three systems off of Africa. Early wave train, or just the GFS going all CMC on us?


I'm not going to say the GFS is correct but the MJO computer forecasts from the EWP show a continue upward pulse through most of July. The GFS long range shows favorable upper level conditions throughout the TRPL ATL and finally the Caribbean.
That wave behind Bertha could end up being more of a problem then Bertha if this run of the GFS holds any merit.
yeah even a jog south isnt good, the lower it gets the less likely it recurves
Troll? Ive been on here for 3 years.
Its a joke thats popular on the internet.


GFS 132hrs SJ was referring to.....



1122. CybrTeddy 4:33 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
Troll? Ive been on here for 3 years.
Its a joke thats popular on the internet.


LOL! you just been weathermaned!
WEATHERMAN 504
if it gets to 55 on the 19 line it could go anywhere it wants normally the path of less resistance is the rule
1123.
I might be applying to Regent University later on.. depends how my work schedule is. I think it's somewhere in Virginia. Though I'll be doing online coarses from there if I even apply.
1125. TheWeatherMan504 4:35 AM GMT on July 04, 2008 Hide this comment.
1122. CybrTeddy 4:33 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
Troll? Ive been on here for 3 years.
Its a joke thats popular on the internet.

LOL! you just been weathermaned!


OMG!! NO! LOL!! Ill get you back.
LOL
Not that it means anything, but post 1124 - that has an Andrew look to it.

This was interesting new product at fsu. Click on the pic & scroll to the bottom to see it large.

Some interesting things here. Minimum MSLP is 1010mb, 34kts at 925mb & at the bottom it says in red letters..Use with extreme caution.
Right now i don't see the turn for Bertha. Things will change. But nothing i can see coming. I feel the high will build West and put Bertha on a direct course to the Con US.
i didnt say so th BAMS is doing that i just happened to notice it.
Careful flashing that thing around Skye, your bound to put someones eye out! Extreme caution! lol

:~) Good to see ya
That is going way out on a limb TS!

I think it will make the curve eventually, when is the question.
I just noticed something.. The GFS continues to do the "stalling method" on Bertha after reaching some point. Though the trough is slanted to a point where a storm could easily sneek under and head more west. IF and IF Bertha doesnt NOT stall, it could head more west than the GFS predicts and easily slide under the front and head west to Florida, say a Frances track. this is only a hype thought.. but would not be surprising if it were to pan out.
Good morning all! Happy Fourth of July to everyone here.

Based upon the latest trends in the track and intensity for Bertha, I have grown slightly more concerned. From my observations, the stable airmass preceding Bertha may be having a big impact on the system right now. Even though it may seem the convection has increased and looks organized, I have noticed small signs of weakening. In addition, it has been traveling south of due west over the past few hours. Like I have stated all along, we need to watch Bertha as I just dont see it curving out to sea as it appears the troughs have come to a grinding halt over the US and the ULL continues moving further north. But again, time will only tell.
lol jp
I know 174hrs is getting pretty long range, but the GFS is spitting out like wild fire.
wishcasting a cat 2 into va beach, that would be entertaing
Flood you got mail
1143. JRRP
09 GMT 07/03/08 12.6N 22.7W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 07/03/08 13.3N 24.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/03/08 13.6N 25.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/04/08 13.4N 27.0W 45 1006 Tropical Storm
1144. Drakoen
South of due north?
i figure bahamas and nc to new england at risk if it stays below 20 till 55 after that its anybodys guess
it has been traveling south of due north over the past few hours


I'm confused... ¿~)
Quoting 1133. StormJunkie:
Careful flashing that thing around Skye, your bound to put someones eye out! Extreme caution! lol

:~) Good to see ya


I was wondering what the hazard was, does have a picture of a sharp point on it.
The GFS has Bermuda right in Berthas eyes after 200 hours!! HA.. I predicted this, just in a southern way lol.
1137, I noticed that. I don't really see that its weakening however, it seems like its makeing the enviroment around it moister.
lmao skye!
1153. Drakoen
This GFS run is to the left of the previous runs:
cchs werent u the one preaching sheer was dying over 93l and it was actually increasing to 30 kts... u make no sense somethimes lol
Made a mistake Drak. Corrected the error.
1137....

The mimic link SJ posted clearly shows the "jog" and weakening.....

one thing is for sure....Bermuda residents should closely monitor Bertha!
My First run on Bertha (made this morning)
New run coming tommorrow!

Philippines Atmospherical, Geophysical,and Astronomical Services Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
==========================
The Low Pressure Area centered to the West Northwest of Coron, Palawan has developed into a tropical depression and was named "GENER".

At 11:00 AM PST, Tropical Depression Gener located at 13.0ºN 117.5ºE or 300 kms West Northwest of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Tropical Depression "GENER" is expected to enhance the Southwest monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes over these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
1160. 7544
i agree with tampa it looks like another andrew if that b high builds back in dmax is coming
1154. vabeachurricanes222 12:46 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
cchs werent u the one preaching sheer was dying over 93l and it was actually increasing to 30 kts... u make no sense somethimes lol


I'll admit that I did make that statement. I thought it would move NW, not nearly due west. So, I was incorrect. I rely on observations more than computer models.
1163. Drakoen
1158. reedzone 4:49 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
My First run on Bertha (made this morning)
New run coming tommorrow!


That's one big cone. lol.
i gortta go to bed its too late.
Floodman see why its going to go West don't ya....that tells it all.
1158. reedzone 4:49 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
My First run on Bertha (made this morning)
New run coming tommorrow!

That's one big cone. lol.


lol BIG one!! However, track will deffinatly shift further south on tommorrows 2nd run!
1167. JRRP
New toy.. the track overlayed on Emanual's maximum intensity potental map. Looks like you have to select it from the 2nd line. Shows that southward movement well too.
see if you make your cone the entire planet like reed then you can never be wrong ;)
hey, if you stay in this blog long enough, you will stick your foot in your mouth!

How many times has Dr. Masters done it? LOL
its going further south because it has missed the opening now the high is building back in.
1173. Drakoen
1168. jphurricane2006 4:54 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
I noticed something that hasnt been talked about

but the SAL is right in front of Bertha, looks like she will have to go through some of it to get to the other side, the circulation was so large it spiraled some down from the north

anyway I think the SAL will keep Bertha in check and allow her to stay further south


The SAL is why Bertha has a low level cloud deck.
We all have to wait for about 5 days to see if another opening comes.....lets hope so.
1171.

LOL
1168....

pottery mentioned that before he left..... some drier air, and cooler SST's for Big Bertha tomorrow.....
I Just love those folks at CIMSS!

im an amatuer so can someone tell me what a SAL is?
1168. jphurricane2006 12:54 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
I noticed something that hasnt been talked about

but the SAL is right in front of Bertha, looks like she will have to go through some of it to get to the other side, the circulation was so large it spiraled some down from the north

anyway I think the SAL will keep Bertha in check and allow her to stay further south


Terrific and important observation JP. This is the main reason why I see no significant strengthening and am, in fact, expecting slight weakening over the next few days.
Goodnight JFV, and Happy 4th Of July!
1179. vabeachurricanes222 12:58 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
im an amatuer so can someone tell me what a SAL is?


Saharan Air Layer - Basically the layer that contains dust from the Saharan desert.
oh ok lol its african dust gotcha
1180. cchsweatherman 12:58 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

Nope i think its going to move WSW with the high building and move into some warmer waters and should allow some gradual strenghtening......
wow jp and ccha u guys used like the exact same words lol
Good night all! I'll try to be back here tomorrow AM before I work (yes, work) tomorrow from 11 AM to 6:30PM.
1184. vabeachurricanes222 1:00 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

Its also very dry area.
lovin the rays down there in tampa arnt u ts big sweep this week!
1190. Drakoen
1186. vabeachurricanes222 5:01 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
wow jp and ccha u guys used like the exact same words lol


telekinetic.
1191. 7544
tampa spin is getting ready for a attack lol

but is usally right on the money
heres a question for you, how come the dust doesnt act as condesation nuclei for the storm?
definitely better banding features for Bertha.....

1189. vabeachurricanes222 1:03 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
lovin the rays down there in tampa arnt u ts big sweep this week!


They are hot, real hot and the more and more people are jumping on the band wagon in Tampa and fan support is getting hugh.
1165. TampaSpin

Exactly, Tampa...

vabeachurricanes222, the SAL is the Saharan air layer, dry dusty air from the desert...a system entrains that air and in essencem is choked, sometimes to death...

As far as Bertha goes, anything that weakens her but does not kill her is bad news for CONUS...a weak Bertha at the point where the trof is supposed to turn her will allow her to continue in a more nearly due west course; I'm a realist, so climatology enters into my thinking on these things, but I'd be far more concerned if this was mid-August, but again, there is a first time for everything...a major (CAT3 or above) CV storm landfall the CONUS in early July is pretty much unthinkable, but not outside the realm of possibility...
1198. Drakoen
1193. jphurricane2006 5:05 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
and check out the ridge for the level of steering that Bertha is under

WSW would be the movement


It's currently taking a jog of to the NNW
1193. jphurricane2006 1:05 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
and check out the ridge for the level of steering that Bertha is under

WSW would be the movement


Right on JP
1192. vabeachurricanes222

Simple: lack of moisture...no moisture collapses the convection, trigger or no trigger
1196. Floodman 1:06 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

Could not have said it better.
1199. TampaSpin

Pretty much what we were seeing, huh?
What jog to the NNW?????
Well good evening there fellas. Drak, and Jp how are you guys doing? I don't know if you remember me but I was on quite a bit last year and the year before. Finally have some time this year to start coming onto this website again. I have been so busy with school and work that I haven't been able to get on here as much as I would have liked. Just to put my two cents in about Bertha. I actually agree with the Drak that it's taking that NNW movement as is clearly defined in that Skyepony link that was put up earlier which is a great link by the way.
1203. Floodman 1:09 AM EDT on July 04, 2008
1199. TampaSpin

Pretty much what we were seeing, huh?


Yep....sure is.
ok thxs guys sry for all the questions, i just love weather and and trying to make it my career so everyone on this blog helps me out alot
1209. 7544
starting to come in the picture just below the 15n line

Link
1202. TampaSpin

Thanks!
1212. Drakoen
The models show that the mid to upper level ridge to north of the system is weakening in response to a deep layered longwave trough. You can watch it on water vapor imagery.
Okay, folks, time for me to medicate and crash...long day!

Keep an eye on old Bertha for me, huh?
1214. Drakoen
1211. jphurricane2006 5:14 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
NNW jog is taking place, like I said to me its just a jog to catch up to base of that steering line, steering is weaker where it is now


That's correct. Afterward, it should head back westward or WNW.
Nit Flood take care and watch that stuff your taking.....been there before.
lol look at the storms in mexico right now sheesh...
1217. Drakoen
Quoting 1204. BrandonC:
Well good evening there fellas. Drak, and Jp how are you guys doing? I don't know if you remember me but I was on quite a bit last year and the year before. Finally have some time this year to start coming onto this website again. I have been so busy with school and work that I haven't been able to get on here as much as I would have liked. Just to put my two cents in about Bertha. I actually agree with the Drak that it's taking that NNW movement as is clearly defined in that Skyepony link that was put up earlier which is a great link by the way.


Your name looks familiar. I'm doing good for the most part. Nice to see some of the old bloggers back.
Hey all... Quiet now isn't it... Good quality discussion here.
1213....

I'm with you flood, except I arleady medicated! LOL

Happy 4th all.....
7544 you got mail
1221. Drakoen
Anyways, I'm of for the night/morning. See you guys later in the morning lol...
Where does everyone think is the best site to get the most recent model runs?


Tropical Depression "Gener"
1225. OUSHAWN
Well, at least the GFS and NOGAPS aren't predicting development in the GOM next week now like they were earlier...that's good news.
Can I say DENNIS 2005?
Good Drak I'm happy to hear you are doing ok. I am happy to be back on here as it is always fun to be on with fellow people who enjoy and talk about the weather as much as I like too. This should be an interesting season as we have already had a weird start with Bertha forming as far out as she has. It has the look of a late August to September look with waves coming off of Africa already. By the looks of the latest Infrared pic of Africa there is already some disturbed weather further south and in the middle of the continent that is on it's way off of the coast in a couple of days.
1223. bballerf50 1:21 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

I like this site...Link
1223.

Most of the favorites are here.
Thanks for the site tampaspin!
RSMC Meteo-France
04:00 AM UTC

TROPICAL STORM "BERTHA"
13.4N 27.0W

MOVING WEST AT 12 KT,

EXPECTED 13.8N 29.2W BY 4/12 UTC,
14.6N 32.5W BY 5/00 UTC
15.5N 35.9W BY 5/12 UTC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006,
MAX WIND 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT,

GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.

---
Didn't know France monitors the Eastern Atlantic as well..
CMC and GFS are showing an active African coast for the next week or so.
1225. OUSHAWN 1:23 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

Its gonna wake up soon MJO is coming.
bballer the FSU site is alo a good place for models. It ha the HWRF and the GDFL in zoom.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Reply to..1231. HadesGodWyvern 5:29 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

Yes france monitors EATL because they have dependent islands in caribbean example martinique which belongs to france...
good nite everyone.....see you all tomorow and stay safe and have a happy 4th......remember what it is about.
oh I see

I found a site that states Meteo-France area of responsibility is east of 35.0W north of 7.0N
Hades, where did you find the info for Bertha from Meteo-France?
1239. o311
Does anybody have the 2am computer models.
UKMET Model - 04JUL 12:00 AM UTC


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.07.2008

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 26.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022008

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.07.2008 13.6N 26.3W MODERATE
12UTC 04.07.2008 14.1N 29.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2008 14.5N 31.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2008 15.9N 35.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2008 16.3N 39.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2008 16.9N 43.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2008 16.7N 46.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.07.2008 17.9N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2008 17.6N 52.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2008 19.2N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2008 19.3N 58.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2008 20.4N BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HOLY COW CHECK OUT THE 00z GFDL THAT JUST CAME OUT!!!

GFDL has Big Bertha as Cat 2 Hurricane by the 8th of July
does anyone know where I can learn more on what the "MJO" is?
Thanks
1242. weathersp 6:08 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

Extra-tropical? you think?
Wow.. lol. But remember its only 1 model.

Click to Zoom
ukmet 7/4 00z

Very interesting!

MJO
No I don't think so Hades its got the latitude of Miami,FL
Thanks for the MJO link
ok

hmm that is odd the UKMET dissipates it and the GFDL turns it into a hurricane..
1249. HadesGodWyvern 6:19 AM GMT on July 04, 2008
ok

hmm that is odd the UKMET dissipates it and the GFDL turns it into a hurricane..


which means we still dont know whats going to happen...
New HWRF also has it basicly as a nothing.. GFDL is an outlier.
OK im going to go get about 4-5 hours if shut-eye...cya all tomorrow.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 04Jul)
============================================
An area of convection (98W) located near 13.0N 117.9E or 205 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting on the western side of a developing low circulation center also evident in a 2155 Quikscat Pass and a 0208z AMSU-B Image. The disturbance lies in a neutral upper level environment characterized by moderate easterly vertical wind shear and good westward diffluence. Additionally, although low level westerly flow is noted on the equatorward side of the disturbance, this flow is fairly weak and is therefore not expected to fuel rapid development of the low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1009 MB. Because both upper and lower level conditions are only marginally favorable, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
night weathersp
So what is the current consensus with all the most recent model runs and steering current patterns?
1256. 7544
3am berther is nicely shape in a dark red ball and looks like she wants to ride the 15n line for a while thats west for now

Link
Ain't that America!

God bless WU and all! Happy FOURTH of JULY!

Bunch of folks gave TONS for our independence!

Vietnam Wall

4th July
What great information here! So much better and faster than I used to get from HF radio data transmissions. Any hams here? de N4AY
1258. JP and Drak are hams! ;P



...good to see good folks working together!
1260. 7544
nic pic mlc happy 4th to all too

93l still on the navy site

is it trying to make a comback at 5.30 am
1262. IKE
The 06Z GFS shows....

Bertha meeting a death in the north Atlantic and weakening...dry air? TWC mentioned it yesterday.

The "real-deal" heading west toward the islands.......and the western Caribbean. It's only 1 run, but....take a looksie........

Link
Morning, all.

I just caught the WPLG (ABC 10) broadcast on Bertha and noticed the track seems to have moderated southward since yesterday a. m.

Is this just a jog, or do u think it's a trend?
1264. IKE
1263. BahaHurican 5:56 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
Morning, all.

I just caught the WPLG (ABC 10) broadcast on Bertha and noticed the track seems to have moderated southward since yesterday a. m.

Is this just a jog, or do u think it's a trend?


Looks to be already nearing 15N...I thought from watching the excellent satellite TWC has, that it was mving WNW or even NW....NHC calls it 290 degrees...their probably right.....

If it makes it to 60W, I'd be surprised.
Ike,
Happy 4th of July! I saw the 6z GFS notice now the turn of Bertha is now at 60W and I saw the other system you mentioned going through the islands into Mexico.
1266. IKE
Props to the former 93L...a true survivor.....
1264. IKE 10:59 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

thanks its the first comlement ive heard in days about twc.your a good man ike.
1268. IKE
1265. sporteguy03 6:01 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
Ike,
Happy 4th of July! I saw the 6z GFS notice now the turn of Bertha is now at 60W and I saw the other system you mentioned going through the islands into Mexico.


Happy 4th...good morning....ah...good coffee....got rain again yesterday...more to come this weekend.

That 06Z GFS should get some attention.
1269. IKE
1267. TheWeatherMan504 6:02 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
1264. IKE 10:59 AM GMT on July 04, 2008

thanks its the first comlement ive heard in days about twc.your a good man ike.


I'll give another one...Jeff Murrow(sp?), has always done a good job..on-air...seems like a nice guy from Pittsburgh I believe.
wow the dmax gave 93l a blow up last night.
"93L"- A true survivor
morning
the tropics seems rather interesting this morning. first off Tropical storm bertha although increase in strengh during the night hours is beginning to look as if it is on the weakening side . The cloud tops have warmed consderably during ths last few hours and it appears to moving west or slightly south of west. There is a strong wave or pulse to the south of Bertha which seems to be getting better with every frame. wind shear to the area south of bertha is very weak about 5-10 knots from 30 deg long as far west as the island chain.SST in the area is in thr optimum range and the SAL will have no impact. i believe the area south of beartha should be watched with much interest
next is the remnants of 93L which is now in the caribbean after going through a period of strong shear/ The nogaps and the gfs are hinting that a low pressure will form in the southen gulf of Mexico early nezt weak. i believe that the remnants of 93L which still has a spin will be the trigger mechanism for cyclogenesis in the G/MEX next weak shear is expectsd to relax and the sst is sufficiently high to encourage development. This weakend will e interesting to watch. over Africa a strong wave is about to exit the coast south of Beartha and one is along still on the land near the meridian
Interesting paragraph from the 0500 discussion:

ALL OF THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW BERTHA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD DELAYING THIS
TURN.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS KEPT CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT DAYS 4-5. THE
MODELS THAT FORECAST A STRONGER BERTHA...SUCH AS THE
GFDL...FORECAST MORE OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5...WHILE
MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET INSIST ON A WEAKER CYCLONE
CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST...LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS...TAKING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

This is just what I was suggesting last night. I figure Bertha could make it to 60W before that turn is really evident.
when i go on the feild to produce ike(when they go for hurricanes). it was my first year working in 2004.Watch me hold abrams in this video durring frances.
1275. WXHam
Good Morning Everyone and Happy 4th! Just thought I'd share the global view from NRL

img src="4th of July Global Perspective" alt="" />
1276. IKE
1274. TheWeatherMan504 6:12 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
when i go on the feild to produce ike(when they go for hurricanes). it was my first year working in 2004.Watch me hold abrams in this video durring frances.


Lucky guy you....I think I was watching TWC when that happened......
1277. IKE
A few nice waves fixing to exit the coast of Africa....94L?....95L??????
1272. stoormfury 7:06 AM EDT on July 04, 2008

Have u read NHC 0500 discussion on Bertha? They have some interesting things to say about that southern area.


NRL's latest vis on Bertha
then Jeff marrow with Dennis. Lots of fun even though i wasnt in the shot.Link
1281. IKE
Decreasing shear in the central/eastern Caribbean...Link
good morning everyone

Yesterday afternoon I suggested that 93L would slow below Hispaniola and that this would allow it to regroup overnight as well as wait for improving shear conditions in the NW Caribbean. This seems to be playing out that way and the NHC have now added a 1013 mb low along the wave axis .

The 850 mb vorticity is showing a return of the vorticity that had completely faded away yesterday. This will bear watching as a high is building to the N from the SW Caribbean.

Unfortunately quikscat will miss the wave this morning
I like most of them but Mike Sidell is a little girl.we call him Mary-Weather.
Happy Fourth of July to all of our friends in America
1285. IKE
1280. TheWeatherMan504 6:18 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
then Jeff marrow with Dennis. Lots of fun even though i wasnt in the shot.Link


July 10th, 2005 landfall...I exited Defuniak Springs,FL...went to Dothan,AL...their winds were only around 40mph. My yard had branches down everywhere from Dennis the Menace.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.2N 28.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 30.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 34.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.6N 37.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 17.3N 41.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 48.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 53.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 56.5W 60 KT


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

1287. IKE
KMAN...as soon as I saw the visible on 93L, I thought about what you said yesterday....

"gosh...he's right!"
lol ike.
From the TWD

"Tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 70w/71w S of
18n moving W 15-20 kt. Added a weak 1013 mb low along the axis
near 15n based on a small swirl evident on shortwave IR images.
This low may be 1-2 mb lower in pres currently based on
surrounding
buoy data. Associated scattered showers and tstms have increased
this morning...NE of the exposed low-level swirl due to S-SW
shear...from 15n-17n between 66w-70w. "
Happy 4th of July to you guys in the The United States.
ok BahaHurican i will check it out. i was wating the 8.05 discussion
Hi Ike

Makes for interesting watching close to home !

There is a buoy at 75 West that will give us a good reading on this late today
Bertha can now be seen on the CATL satellite page

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl.html

A floater should be available today.

1294. IKE
1292. kmanislander 6:26 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
Hi Ike

Makes for interesting watching close to home !

There is a buoy at 75 West that will give us a good reading on this late today


Yeah....it does....the season is heating up in the Atlantic.
1295. IKE
They need to put 93L back up.
The circulation of 93L can even be seen on the 6 km geostationary satellite of the central atlantic. Pretty impressive considering the amount of vertical wind shear. Should wind shear slacken anytime along the future trek, I dont think 93L will have much problem organizing, thats why it needs to be watch especially in the event it enters Gulf of Mexico. But I guess the Navy has other plans.
shear is expected to weaken and is all the breathing space 93L will want.' WATCH IT IN THE G/MEX'
Happy 4th of July everyone!

Kman, that was a great call on 93l...we're lucky to have you here!
I just noticed something else, about Bertha

The Hi Res quikscat pass this morning shows the center to actually be further South than 14.2N

13.8 or.9 would be more accurate. This will likely bring the next model runs further South again with the track
1300. IKE
Long-term discussion from Tallahassee,Fl....

"Long term...(sunday night-Fri.)
The models appear to be in decent agreement through the extended
period. Sunday night through Monday...the upper trough that has been
across the region will begin to lift northeast as the upper ridge
builds back across the area. Monday night through Wednesday...the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS are showing an increase in deep layer moisture
across the eastern half of the County Warning Area as a tropical wave tracks north
around the subtropical ridge axis.
Thursday through Friday night...
the GFS/European model (ecmwf) show the upper ridge beginning to weaken once again
and shifting south as another short wave trough and cold front
approach the region from the northwest. Southwesterly flow and
increasing moisture ahead of this frontal boundary will provide
higher probabilities for shower/storm coverage across the area
during this period.".............


The tropical wave they mention...93L??????

Thanks HMJ

Hope it doesn't do anything crazy in my neighbourhood LOL
Kman hope 93 does not slap you. Everyone have a good fourth of july.
Leftovers

So do I. My face still hurts from the storm that shall remain nameless !

93L will likely be put back up later today as the increase in convection and a 1011 to 1013 mb low would seem to warrant that.
1306. IKE
Good morning StormW...looks like your work is fixing to pick up........
Hi Storm

Happy 4th to you. Lots going on out there. Bertha near 13.8 according to QS. The next set of runs will be interesting
1309. IKE
1307...your were right on with your forecast calling for increasing activity in the Atlantic in early/mid July......
1310. IKE
00Z CMC....

Link
Here is the exposed circulation of ex 93L

1314. IKE
00Z UKMET...

Link
You do that Storm

Coffee time for me

BBL
So where do you think Big Bertha is going to land?
At least you should not need your lifevest KMan. 93 does not look all that good on the visiable.
1318. IKE
00Z ECMWF has Big Bertha nearing the Bahamas before turning....

Link
Morning y'all

Happy 4th of July to you guys in the the United States!
Happy 4th of July everyone...Let Freedom Ring!
but remember ike. .... Last season the ECMWF Forcasted a Miami major hurricane and nothing came....
1322. IKE
1321...yeah the ECMWF kind of waffles back and forth....
Thank you Ike....Do you think it'll hit Florida?
1324. IKE
1323...not likely.......
Changing your chords Ike on Bertha?
1327. IKE
1326. leftovers 7:14 AM CDT on July 04, 2008
Changing your chords Ike on Bertha?


LOL....I stand by my thoughts...doesn't make it to 60W...if I'm wrong, so be it....crow me....
1329. Patrap
Latest WV Image CV Islands Link
Looking for trouble on the internet again Jp Hook is set. Have a good day.
Morning JP, morning everyone...

Happy Fourth!
i see (karen) lol bertha looks a little raggy this morning
1299. kmanislander 7:38 AM AST on July 04, 2008

The QuikSCAT pass was taken 3 hours before the 5am advisory. Bertha moved along way between the QuikSCAT pass and the 5am advisory.
1339. Patrap
New Blog for Dr. M.
Happy 4th of July to all those out there who celebrate it.

We are having an Independence T-shirt Day here today since it is the last "casual Friday" before our own Independence Day on July 10. Everybody is supposed to wear a t-shirt commemorating our independence, or, failing that, a plain t-shirt in black, aquamarine or gold, which are our flag colours.

Ike, the ECMWF solution is not that "far out" if Bertha doesn't gain too much vertically. I personally think Bertha WILL make it to 60W before it recurves, partially because it seems to want to stay a bit further south than originally expected.
Morning everyone and Happy Independance Day!
I'll be at the beach from 1 p.m. till about 10 p.m. so I'm gonna make a quick update on Bertha on my blog and track it for a while.