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Tropical Storm Barry Hits Mexico With 45 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on June 20, 2013

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico at 8 am CDT on Thursday, June 20, as an unremarkable tropical storm with top winds of 45 mph. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, and up to ten inches are expected to fall in some mountainous regions as Barry pushes inland and dissipates over the next day. Satellite loops show that Barry is a small storm, and its heavy rains will affect only a modest area of Mexico. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry near the time of landfall.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Modiki El Nino this year, Dr.?
Gulf

Thanks for the new entry! Hope everyone has a lovely day! :-]

Natalie
Interesting thing I just noticed, the track of Barry has it approaching Mexico City as it dissipates, has a tropical cyclone ever made it to Mexico City? Or do the mountains shred it apart before even getting close
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


that's why i as a deathcaster only utilize the unreliable models....

Thanks Dr Masters
10. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Boring dusty weather is back... it did not take LONG as usual.


A strong wave is due in your area in 5 days.

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Gulf



That's almost the size of the Gulf lol
Mental note of Things to Remember from Masters' latest post:

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico at 8 am CDT on Thursday, June 20, as an unremarkable tropical storm with top winds of 45 mph.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.

Barry...full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968.

June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled

Some of this difference [in activity] can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season...and late season...Atlantic tropical storms.
Thanks Dr. Masters
Does anyone know how to upload photos? I keep trying and they don't appear.
16. 7544
looks like that wave just north of the bahamas wants to fire up again today.
Thanks Doc !!!
Quoting 62901IL:
Thanks Dr. Masters
Does anyone know how to upload photos? I keep trying and they don't appear.


Click 'image'. Box appears top left. Delete letters in box. Paste image URL into box. Click 'OK'.
RGB LOOP OF BARRY

Quoting yonzabam:


Click 'image'. Box appears top left. Delete letters in box. Paste image URL into box. Click 'OK'.

I try that but the images dont show up. I dont see them. if you do, tell me.
Quoting Patrap:
NSIDC


Goin' down, goin' down now.
Goin' down, goin' down now.
Goin' down, goin' down,
Goin' d-d-d-d-down...
Quoting mikatnight:
Mental note of Things to Remember from Masters' latest post:

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico at 8 am CDT on Thursday, June 20, as an unremarkable tropical storm with top winds of 45 mph.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.

Barry...full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968.

June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled

Some of this difference [in activity] can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season...and late season...Atlantic tropical storms.
I said a few years ago that someday our hurricane season will officially start May-15. It may happen sooner than I anticipated.
Thanks Doc.
said a few years ago that someday our hurricane season will officially start May-15. It may happen sooner than I anticipated.


data detailing more tropical activity in june does not support a conclusion that the season will start earlier
oh...and to fit into the crowd...thus proving my weather weenie status..let me say.....





thanks doc!
Good morning!

Here in OK warm, with a slight chance of rain. We have two more days to squeeze out what moisture we can before the high returns bringing hot and dry weather.

Locally, improvement/elimination of lingering drought, and some improvement in the high plains. Still the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde going on with the Eastern half of the state in good condition, western half still coming up short.



Seasonal outlook: the divide between the haves and have-nots looks likely to remain firmly entrenched throughout the summer.

Hopefully Barry will push far enough inland to bring beneficial rains to help out the on-going drought in Central Mexico, and not dump it all East of the mountains.



Have a good one. I catch you all later. :D
And, if your looking for breakfast, AI is traveling to OK for a dog show, so you are on your own :(
Quoting VR46L:
RGB LOOP OF BARRY



Radar loop shows an interesting circular outflow boundary spit out by Barry to the north, and reaching Texas.
SLU that tropical wave ,that will affect the lesser Antilles in 5 days time could be very interesting. the wave will be in an area where shear will be conducive and the sal will be greatly reduced.it is quite possible that this could be a replay of 92L
Thanks Dr. Masters, take the rest of the day off.....
Good Morning..some nice showers here today at last........
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU that tropical wave ,that will affect the lesser Antilles in 5 days time could be very interesting. the wave will be in an area where shear will be conducive and the sal will be greatly reduced.it is quite possible that this could be a replay of 92L


That wave has been introduced at the 12z Analysis off the coast of West Africa.

Here's today's MJO forecasts from the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF. All three have a very strong pulse...wouldn't surprise me to see two storms in the Atlantic and East Pacific from it.

Quoting miguel617:


Radar loop shows an interesting circular outflow boundary spit out by Barry to the north, and reaching Texas.


Yes, there is a bit making its way North




still no threatening storms 180 hours out per GFS
Quoting VR46L:


Yes, there is a bit making its way North




I hope you folks get some much needed rain from whats left of barry
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave has been introduced at the 12z Analysis off the coast of West Africa.

Look at the low in the Caribbean.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY
MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 UTC JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. SINCE THAT
TIME...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER
WATER NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ALREADY INLAND...THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

BARRY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS TRAPPED SOUTH OF NARROW
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO.
45mph??? That is going to break some hearts on here.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave has been introduced at the 12z Analysis off the coast of West Africa.

Could you please give me the link for this map.
Thanks Dr. Masters, as always.

Concerning the ongoing wild weather ride in Western Europe:

EuroNews Video:
Orange alert for France, while Spain clears up flood damage
20/06 16:15 CET

Locally very dramatic reports from damage in respect to the present squall line come in f.e. from Western and Northern Germany. I'll post some info when a good summarizing video is somewhere available.

For tonight our weather service tells us we should better stay at home because more evil is developing, with severe storms, heavy rains, large hail, damaging winds, maybe tornados. Enjoy ;/
BBL
Quoting Hurrihistory:
Could you please give me the link for this map.


Link
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Look at the low in the Caribbean.


That is the Colombian low.
Quoting mikatnight:
Modiki El Nino this year, Dr.?


Unlikely to happen, more of a neutral year to a La Nina is more expected. The Euro has not perform well in the last 2 or so years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's today's MJO forecasts from the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF. All three have a very strong pulse...wouldn't surprise me to see two storms in the Atlantic and East Pacific from it.



On that graphic what is the time between dots. So in other words how long until the mJO is projected to be in our Basin?
Quoting hydrus:
I said a few years ago that someday our hurricane season will officially start May-15. It may happen sooner than I anticipated.


If you lived in the 1960s, you would be saying the same thing. The period 1948-1960 was ridiculous in terms of May, June, and July storms. Visit the wunderground archive to see for yourself. The recent trend since 1980 is the result of periodicity associated with the AMO, which is very evident in this graph from Kossin's paper which Dr. Masters has referenced a lot. There may or may not be a statistically significant overall trend after the periodicity is factored out of the data. I don't know, but it's worth pointing out why the trend has been significant since 1980 (green lines).

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link
Thanks a bunch!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's today's MJO forecasts from the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF. All three have a very strong pulse...wouldn't surprise me to see two storms in the Atlantic and East Pacific from it.



Especially the UKMET and GFS brings it in the Atlantic more and for a longer time than the Euro I would say the UKMET forecast is right on the money. But Either way I can see 2 storms out of this pattern. One in the Caribbean and one a CV storm as the will be upward motion over Africa causing more vigorous wave and a decline of SAL dust.



Western Europe storms. Source.

Quoting Dakster:


On that graphic what is the time between dots. So in other words how long until the mJO is projected to be in our Basin?

The end of June around the 28 til around July 10 or so. 
Quoting Ricki13th:


Especially the UKMET and GFS brings it in the Atlantic more and for a longer time than the Euro I would say the UKMET forecast is right on the money. But Either way I can see 2 storms out of this pattern. One in the Caribbean and one a CV storm as the will be upward motion over Africa causing more vigorous wave and a decline of SAL dust.


Funny how the GFS is not showing much anymore.
Quoting Ricki13th:


Unlikely to happen, more of a neutral year to a La Nina is more expected. The Euro has not perform well in the last 2 or so years.


Was looking at Levi's video, he says the Brazilian model beat the European last 2 years and now they are at odds with each other. Interesting to see which prevails as the Brazilian model is new. First I ever even heard of it, but I'm not even a weatherman wanna be - just find it all fascinating...
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
45mph??? That is going to break some hearts on here.


Saw some people claiming for 60 -65 mph last night and this morning. ..
Went puffff

Nhc as always. ..conservative
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Saw some people claiming for 60 -65 mph last night and this morning. ..
Went puffff

Nhc as always. ..conservative
They may up the wind speed a tad after a review, but it looked fairly unorganized when landfall occurred.
so far this year we have two tropical storm made landfall..
Quoting mikatnight:




thats 3 days old
Quoting Ricki13th:


The end of June around the 28 til around July 10 or so. 


Thanks.
I see a spin there.. nice spin at 30 north!
Our Caribbean wave is trying to organize.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Our Caribbean wave is trying to organize.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Our Caribbean wave is trying to organize.



You see that spinning also? May just be in the upper levels though?
I doubt anything comes out of it...but the combination of a tropical wave with the tail-end of a frontal boundary can sometimes spawn development.

Typically a spike of TC development in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico occurs about 15 days after the MJO reaches the East Pacific. In other words, if an MJO pulse is reaching the EPAC by late June or in early July, we should expect any resulting Atlantic Basin development to occur around mid July.
Quoting barbamz:

Western Europe storms. Source.
Link
Good Morning to all from America's Left Coast
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning to all from America's Left Coast


I didn't know we had a liberal coast...

And to that end, I didn't know we had a conservative one either...
welcome to as the blog turns.....as barry makes landfall with what would appear little chance of mayhem and destruction (we say pshawww to floods and mudslides) all eyes turn once again to the gulf and the atlantic basin...no matter that reliable models show no signs of formation nor are conditions conducive for development ( we say pshaww to models...if we wanted a model we would build one)...every blob is a potential cat 5....every swirl is the next death and destruction to civilization...shhh...listen closely as the natives speak.....

A slurry bomber fights the Lime Gulch fire in Jefferson County, June 19, 2013. (Hyoung Chang, The Denver Post)

Visitors of Waterton Canyon are being escorted out Thursday morning after Denver Water to closed the area as a safety precaution because of the Lime Gulch fire.

The Lime Gulch fire, which was initially reported as the Chair Rock fire, was estimated at 500 acres around 6:45 p.m. by the U.S. Forest Service. The fire forced 100 people south of Conifer to evacuate their homes Wednesday afternoon.
Of course the current MJO forecast could be off as bad as the one from two weeks ago is............




70.0 here right now, forecast 88, then cooling off a bit till Tuesday. More Golidlocks weather. No Marine layer to speak of this morning, offshore flow.....
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats 3 days old


Yeah Taz, I know, but it doesn't change the forecast. Levi said that the Euro model had changed to calling for less active season, whereas Braz model disagrees. I was just posting the video I was referring to.
Like I said b4, 1st I'd heard of Brazilian model. What do you think?
Barry may become a depression by the next advisory...and then we will have to barry him.
Who can barry TS barry for me?
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah Taz, I know, but it doesn't change the forecast. Levi said that the Euro model had changed to calling for less active season, whereas Braz model disagrees. I was just posting the video I was referring to.
Like I said b4, 1st I'd heard of Brazilian model. What do you think?


Where do you find the Brazillian model?
Quoting hydrus:
They may up the wind speed a tad after a review, but it looked fairly unorganized when landfall occurred.


Yeah...I don't expect to see anything in the Post analysis about Barry but I do about Barbara
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


You see that spinning also? May just be in the upper levels though?




Decent midlevel, 850 isn't nearly as organized...
BRAMS

Certainly not the flavor of Brazilian models we are used to seeing.

A submerged idol of Hindu Lord Shiva stands in the flooded River Ganges in Rishikesh, in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Tuesday, June 18, 2013. Monsoon torrential rains have cause havoc in northern India leading to flash floods, cloudbursts and landslides as the death toll continues to climb and more than 1,000 pilgrims bound for Himalayan shrines remain stranded. (AP Photo)

India Floods 2013: Landslides Trap Thousands In Himalayas
By BISWAJEET BANERJEE 06/20/13 10:17 AM ET EDT



LUCKNOW, India -- Days after floods killed more than 100 people – possibly many more – rescuers used helicopters and climbed through mountain paths to reach about 4,000 people trapped by landslides in a narrow valley near a Hindu shrine in the northern Himalayas, officials said Thursday.

The helicopters ferried rescue workers and doctors along with equipment, food and medicine to Kedarnath in the state of Uttrakhand, the nearest town to those trapped in the valley, said Air Commodore Rajesh Prasad, who is overseeing the operations.

Amit Chandola, a state spokesman, said authorities so far have been unable to reach eight villages feared washed away by the weekend floods in the worst-hit districts of Rudraprayag and Chamoli.

With the weather improving, army commandos would try to reach the areas on Friday, Chandola said.

He said the official death in Uttrakhand is 105 but added, "We don't know yet what happened to hundreds of people living there." An additional 17 people died in collapsed homes in neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, said R.L. Vishwakarma, a state police officer.

Rakesh Sharma, a state official, said the death toll could be much higher, running into thousands, but the exact number would be known only after a survey of the entire region.

A joint army and air force operation has so far evacuated nearly 14,000 people stranded in the area but nearly 61,000 people remained cut off, officials said.

Chandola said some of the blocked roads were reopened to traffic in the region and nearly 2,000 vehicles moved out of the area carrying stranded tourists.

The flooding washed away roads and nearly two dozen bridges, demolished 365 houses and partially damaged 275 others in Uttrakhand, the state government said. Most of those stranded are Hindu pilgrims who were visiting four revered shrines.

Hundreds of distressed people looking for relatives flocked to Dehradun, the state capital, where flood survivors were taken by plane and helicopter. As those rescued exited the aircraft, those searching for missing people showed them pictures of their loved ones in hopes that someone had seen them.

The lucky ones spoke to their stranded relatives on the phone Wednesday and were waiting for them to be rescued.

State Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna said the Kedarnath temple – one of the holiest Hindu temples dedicated to Lord Shiva, located atop the Garhwal Himalayan range – had escaped major damage, but up to 10 feet (4 meters) of debris covered the area around it.

The state received 380 millimeters (14 inches) of rain in the past week, nearly five times the average for that time period, said R.P.N. Singh, India's junior home minister.

Air force spokeswoman Priya Joshi said 30 helicopters and aircraft have dropped food packets and other relief supplies in addition to ferrying stranded tourists. More than 5,000 soldiers helped bring thousands of homeless people to relief camps and provided them with food and medical supplies.

The latest rains have affected several states and the capital, New Delhi, where nearly 2,000 people were evacuated to government-run camps on higher ground. Authorities there said the Yamuna River was expected to start receding Thursday afternoon.

The annual monsoon rains sustain India's agriculture but also cause flooding that routinely claims lives and damages property.
Quoting Dakster:


Where do you find the Brazillian model?


Aw heck, I was hoping you'd tell me! Maybe I heard wrong. Have you watched the vid? The dude definitely does a good presentation.


Minimal convergence between 850 & 925 also, attm...
Quoting PedleyCA:
BRAMS

Certainly not the flavor of Brazilian models we are used to seeing.


Ahem... Yes...

Another interesting thing, source code in Fortran. There is a word I haven't heard in quite a long time. I guess there are still uses for Fortran programmers then.
#77 - That's one hellava photograph.




Small 'kink' in the low level flow at the wave axis...
Microwave imagery shows Barry was beginning an eyewall -- though the southwest side was weak, understandably (because of land) - prior to landfall. I stick to the storm peaking at 50 knots right after midnight.

UW-CIMSS peaked at 55-60 knots, but this was probably a tad bullish:

2013JUN20 101500 3.6 991.3 57.0 3.6 3.8 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -46.26 -58.40 CRVBND N/A N/A 19.60 96.29 FCST GOES13 33.3
2013JUN20 104500 3.6 991.3 57.0 3.6 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -42.46 -57.83 CRVBND N/A N/A 19.60 96.33 FCST GOES13 33.4
2013JUN20 111500 3.6 991.3 57.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -32.46 -57.40 CRVBND N/A N/A 19.60 96.37 FCST GOES13 33.4

Patrap - WOW!

I guess they are going to have to change the name of that town now. For some reason LUCKNOW doesn't seem to apply.

Quoting PedleyCA:


70.0 here right now, forecast 88, then cooling off a bit till Tuesday. More Golidlocks weather. No Marine layer to speak of this morning, offshore flow.....


You are so right Pedley!..This is lala land anymore...lets enjoy it while it last bro!
86. SLU
Another latitude-deprived storm indicative of the type of pattern I expect this year.

Quoting seminolesfan:




Decent midlevel, 850 isn't nearly as organized...


Shear Tendency Map looks okay.

Quoting PedleyCA:


70.0 here right now, forecast 88, then cooling off a bit till Tuesday. More Golidlocks weather. No Marine layer to speak of this morning, offshore flow.....


Yesterday was 82/57....I am digging it!
A little bit of action on the 12z GFS run, this is 192 hours with a weak Gulf of Honduras system:



It doesn't strengthen a whole lot, makes landfall around 288 hours:

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


You are so right Pedley!..This is lala land anymore...lets enjoy it while it last bro!


Oh yes I am enjoying it. It will end soon and then game on........... HOT

edit: Yesterday here was 60.8/84.8
Quoting Dakster:


Ahem... Yes...

Another interesting thing, source code in Fortran. There is a word I haven't heard in quite a long time. I guess there are still uses for Fortran programmers then.


Ok, well, you guys are waaaaay over my head. I think I'll just wait for the "Brazillian Models for Dummies" to come out.

Careful now boys, I know it's tempting, but...
dak....when i want a model i go see mikee at spaghettimodels.com
94. SLU
1st genuine Cape Verde threat?

we have 94E


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306201336
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013062012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013062012, , BEST, 0, 112N, 949W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting ricderr:
dak....when i want a model i go see mikee at spaghettimodels.com


I got into information overload on his site.

Good - but you gotta sort thru it!

and I am assuming you are talking about weather forecasting models.
94E


Good Afternoon Everyone.

Making a new blog...

Quoting SLU:
Another latitude-deprived storm indicative of the type of pattern I expect this year.

Looks like another monsoonal type system. It still a little far out. But this hold the location of the ridge would allow it to cross the Yucatan and head towards Texas. They really need the rain.
Quoting ricderr:
dak....when i want a model i go see mikee at spaghettimodels.com


The FSU models page continues to be my default favorite. Loads fast, easy to use, great for simple minds like me. I'm always looking for a better one though.
Agree with Dak, that site - info overload!
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Good Afternoon Everyone.

Making a new blog...


How's Wal-Mart going?

Is it giving you incentive to keep at becoming a weather forecaster and not a lifelong Wal-Mart employee?
Appears to develop from this:

Quoting Ricki13th:

Looks like another monsoonal type system. It still a little far out. But this hold the location of the ridge would allow it to cross the Yucatan and head towards Texas. They really need the rain.

Eh, We could use it. :P Were not desperate, West Texas is, but Central and East Texas wouldnt mind if it didnt verify. We've been getting isolated storms scattered all over the area the past couple of days from these weak troughs that come through. The Death Ridge is looking like its met it's match this year.

Quoting SLU:
1st genuine Cape Verde threat?

Lol just like I have been stating earlier on the blog that we could see a CV system as well as a another Caribbean storm. Notice how well define the high pressure is as there would be anywhere for it to escape. GFS has done a pretty decent job sniffing out development. And it looks to be making its transition to tropical mode after the long winter. Two spots to watch to give us an idea of point of origin for system during this MJO pulse.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Appears to develop from this:


Pretty nice looking wave, I would say the 2nd strongest one so far this year, Behind what should've been TD 2.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Eh, We could use it. :P Were not desperate, West Texas is, but Central and East Texas wouldnt mind if it didnt verify. We've been getting isolated storms scattered all over the area the past couple of days from these weak troughs that come through. The Death Ridge is looking like its met it's match this year.


Careful. Mother nature has a cruel sense of humor. Like sending a Cat 5 over to bust that death ridge.
Quoting mikatnight:


The FSU models page continues to be my default favorite. Loads fast, easy to use, great for simple minds like me. I'm always looking for a better one though.


Thanks for the tip....
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Pretty nice looking wave, I would say the 2nd strongest one so far this year, Behind what should've been TD 2.
Not really that impressive lol.
Quoting Dakster:


How's Wal-Mart going?

Is it giving you incentive to keep at becoming a weather forecaster and not a lifelong Wal-Mart employee?

... What do you mean? I don't work there. LOL I mean I have a part time job this summer, but... Not at Walmart.


You can click the image to go to the full report.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cant see it
Quoting Dakster:


Careful. Mother nature has a cruel sense of humor. Like sending a Cat 5 over to bust that death ridge.

There's nothing to bust... Eerily enough this type of pattern we're in for the summer appears to be the exact one that Brought us Ike... :/
Quoting TylerStanfield:

... What do you mean? I don't work there. LOL I mean I have a part time job this summer, but... Not at Walmart.


I thought that was where your part time was.I must have confused you with someone else. Now that I think about it, maybe NCstorm...
Quoting Gearsts:
Cant see it


The one just off the coast of West Africa.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

There's nothing to bust... Eerily enough this type of pattern we're in for the summer appears to be the exact one that Brought us Ike... :/


Not a good pattern. Come to think of it,not a good pattern for those of us in Florida either.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This goes to show a lot of MDR development well take place this season. A true tropical in nature, hurricane season. But what is unsettling is the how pronounce the ridge is this year. Troughs are  over canada Allowing the High to do what it wants and bring MDR system right in our back yard. I dont think up the East coast is at a big risk as it was the last couple of year.In fact; Florida, the Gulf, and Caribbean looks to be the focal point. Not seeing much troughing to bail Florida and the Gulf Coast out like previous years. We shall see!!!
Quoting Levi32:


If you lived in the 1960s, you would be saying the same thing. The period 1948-1960 was ridiculous in terms of May, June, and July storms. Visit the wunderground archive to see for yourself. The recent trend since 1980 is the result of periodicity associated with the AMO, which is very evident in this graph from Kossin's paper which Dr. Masters has referenced a lot. There may or may not be a statistically significant overall trend after the periodicity is factored out of the data. I don't know, but it's worth pointing out why the trend has been significant since 1980 (green lines).

Good afternoon Levi. It is my opinion the Earth and it oceans are warming faster then most scientists predicted. Since 1995 ( As you know of course ) we are in a cycle where most seasons are producing above average hurricane seasons. I do know that during some years, there were a lot of weak storms that had little affect with upwelling or sapping much energy from the Atlantic Basin itself. What has caught my attention is the change in the Rossby waves, jet streams, and warmer atmospheric temperatures that seem to keep creeping farther north and reaching higher elevations in mountainous areas. It is my belief this is a factor in whats happening now, and will play a roll in hurricane seasons to come. Eventually, hyperactivity in the Atlantic will likely slow down toward a more average to even below average activity when the cycle ends, but in the future, when the cycle of increased activity returns, we will see tropical cyclones forming farther north than usual and maintaining tropical characteristics even further into polar regions. I also think that Atlantic hurricanes on average will become larger and stronger, with a decrease in the average number of storms. I may or may not be around to see how it pans out, but it no doubt will be interesting for scientists, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts to research and and pin down all the facts that are responsible for Earths changing climate.
(click to enlarge)