WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Arlene--a heavy rainfall threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has its first named storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, which rapidly spun up last night from a tropical wave that had emerged into Mexico's Bay of Campeche. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is currently in the storm, and has found that Arlene is strengthening. At the plane's flight altitude of 1,000 feet, top winds reported as of 9:30am EDT were 54 mph, on Arlene's south side. The aircraft's SFMR instrument that remotely measures surface wind speeds found top surface winds of 67 mph on southeast side of the storm. This reading was probably a gust, since top winds of 45 - 50 mph have been more characteristic of the SFMR winds. The measured central pressure at 9am EDT was 1000 mb, which is a 2mb drop from the pressure estimate from 5am. Satellite loops show a marked increase in the intensity and organization of Arlene's heavy thunderstorms, with more prominent spiral bands. Mexican radar out of Alvarado also shows this trend. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, and is predicted to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. This should allow Arlene to continue to organize, and storm could be approaching hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall Thursday morning in Northeast Mexico. Arlene has moistened its environment enough so that the dry air over Mexico should no longer be a problem for it, and the topography surrounding the Bay of Campeche tends to boost counter-clockwise air flow, enabling systems there to spin up faster than in any other portion of the Atlantic. Arlene is bigger than most Bay of Campeche tropical storms, though, so it may not have time to spin up into a hurricane because of its large size. NHC's 5am EDT advisory was giving Arlene a 9% chance of reaching hurricane strength before landfall. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30%, in light of Arlene's recent intensification.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Arlene taken at 4:07am EDT June 29, 2011 showed that several spiral bands had formed. Image credit: N avy Research Lab, Monterey.

Rainfall forecast for Arlene
The major threat from Arlene is heavy rainfall, particularly since the portion of coast that will be affected is under extreme drought. Without much vegetation to absorb Arlene's rains and slow down run-off, the expected heavy rains are more likely to cause damaging flooding. NHC is currently estimating that 4 - 8 inches will fall, with isolated areas of up to 15 inches over the mountains. These predicted amounts will probably need to be revised upwards, given Arlene's recent increase in organization. At this time, it appears that Texas will not see any rain from Arlene.


Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall expected along the path of Arlene, as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (06 UTC) run of the HWRF model. This model predicts a large region of 8+ inches of rain (yellow colors) will affect Mexico. These rainfall amounts are probably too high, as our other models are not showing such heavy rainfall amounts. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

June hurricane climatology
Long-term hurricane records going back to 1851 show that on average, we see just one Atlantic named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the sixteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been twelve June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Thus, recent history suggests the Atlantic hurricane season is becoming more active earlier in the season, in line with recent research that found that the Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer.

Arlene: the most common Atlantic storm name of all-time
This year marks the tenth appearance of a storm named Arlene in the Atlantic, making it the most recycled storm name of all-time. The other nine appearances: 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999, and 2005. It's pretty likely we'll see Arlene again in 2017--no storm that has formed in the Bay of Campeche and made landfall in Mexico has ever had its name retired. Hurricane Audrey of June 1957 formed in the Bay of Campeche and hit Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing 550 people, making Audrey one of only two June storms to get its name retired Hurricane Agnes of 1972 was the other. There have been seven storms beginning with the letter "A" that have had their names retired since 1950:

Allison (2001)
Andrew (1992)
Alicia (1983)
Allen (1980)
Anita (1977)
Agnes (1972)
Audrey (1957)

Of the 21 letters in the alphabet we use to name storms, names beginning with the letters "C" have been retired the most--nine times. Second place goes to "F" and "I" names, with eight retirees. The only letter used that doesn't have a retired storm is "V". There has been only one storm with a name beginning with "V"--Hurricane Vince of 2005. The list of retired hurricane names currently has 76 members.

An amazing low temperature of 107°F in Oman
At Khasab Airport in the desert nation of Oman, a remarkable record was set yesterday--the low temperature for the day was a scorching 41.7°C (107°F). The record was brought to my attention by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. The previous highest minimum temperature for the world he was able to find was set just last year at Khasab Airport, 41.2°C (106°F). The U.S. record high minimum temperature may be a 39.4°C (103°F) taken in Death Valley, California in 1970. Higher record high minimums were set there in the early 1920s, but the quality of the data is suspect. Mr. Herrera notes that Khasab Airport in Oman lies at the base of a mountain range, behind which is desert. Winds blowing from the desert towards Khasab Airport flow downhill, undergoing compression and warming, like the Santa Ana winds in California. Incredibly hot conditions in Oman in late June are common, due to a seasonal shift in winds caused by the onset of the Southwest monsoon in India.

Record California rainstorm
Yesterday was the wettest day ever recorded in the San Francisco Bay Area between June 15 - September 15. All-time precipitation records for the month of June (total for the month) were set at SFO (San Francisco Airport), Oakland Downtown, Oakland Airport, Santa Rosa, Napa, Santa Cruz, and San Jose. Thanks go to Christopher C. Burt for this data.

Internet radio show on Arlene at 4pm EDT
I'll be discussing Tropical Storm Arlene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:00pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Angela Fritz will be hosting the show. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TomTaylor:
plane is up pretty high


Stationary was a joke, notice the lat/lon in the data is not changing.
texas may get a bit more from arlene interesting to note the wind readingds just south east of texas


Time: 19:49:00Z
Coordinates: 24.4N 94.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.5 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,743 meters (~ 25,404 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 425 meters (~ 1,394 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 87 at 26 knots (From the E at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: -14.3C* (~ 6.3F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data

of course this can just mean gusty conditions but i observe cloud structure and while everyone is saying that the cold cloud tops are located over the center this may not be so accurate notice the images show arlene as if it is having two centers or a possible relocation this would be interesting
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Stationary was a joke, notice the lat/lon in the data is not changing.


Um none of the data is changing lol.
Quoting TomTaylor:
plane is up pretty high


They haven't descended yet.
LIVE NOW

Internet radio show on Arlene at 4pm EDT
I'll be discussing Tropical Storm Arlene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:00pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Angela Fritz will be hosting the show. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters
≤1 hour to go till the next advisory. I'm on pins and needles!
Quoting Patrap:
Nervous nannies?
I believe so, getting pretty tense I think. It all comes down to this, one of the important advisories in arlene's life.
Dr. Jeff Masters is live talking about Arlene on the Daily Downpour
Just rained pretty good here with gusty winds
Looking like a relocation center gonna take place some 50-75 miles NE
Hello Arlene,
Its nice to see you,
Its been a long time,
You're looking lovely,
A nice sight to see.

You kept us waiting,
Caused seruious debating,
About non tropical things,
I'm talkin' climate change,
It was extremely strange,
The blog was confused,
Grothar was abused,
It was pure chaos every day,
While you were away.

But right on cue here you are,
29 days its been so far,
To all of those people screaming "No storm in June",
You show up to say "Don't speak so soon",
How does crow taste you naysayers and downcasters,
Your whole month on the blog now ends in disaster.

Lets all watch and be happy for Dr Masters,
His website can stop concentrating on other natural disasters,
And get back to focusing on tropical cyclones,
Since the trolls screaming "bust" are likely long gone.

So kick back and enjoy this moment while you can,
Cause at the slightest down time they'll show up again,
Hollering about how Arlene "left no serious damage in her wake",
And how one named cyclone does not a season make,
Oh they'll poke and prod and try like hell,
To ruffle your feathers right up till 96L,
Then they'll be gone like a thief in the night,
Rather than stick around and say "You guys were right".

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Just rained pretty good here with gusty winds


Where are you located. I see a nice feeder band moving through Brownsville.
Quoting Patrap:
LIVE NOW

Internet radio show on Arlene at 4pm EDT
I'll be discussing Tropical Storm Arlene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:00pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Angela Fritz will be hosting the show. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

Is the show up yet cant find the lint to the live stream
I like the wave at about 27-28W's future prospects, it does sure seem to have a nice spin dynamic to it and decent organization for a early-season CV entity. I would look for development from this once it reaches 50-60W.

Anyone have a formidable opinion about this wave to share?
Heres the LInk

Daily Downpour

Top right of the page is the player
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like a relocation center gonna take place some 50-75 miles NE

...And here come the Texas northcasters wishcasting themselves some rain. :D
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Where are you located. I see a nice feeder band moving through Brownsville.

In Brownsville as a matter of fact.
Quoting eyestalker:
I like the wave at about 27-28W's future prospects, it does sure seem to have a nice spin dynamic to it and decent organization for a early-season CV entity. I would look for development from this once it reaches 50-60W.

Anyone have a formidable opinion about this wave to share?


I agree with you, and very far away from affecting any land mass, so we will have plenty of time to watch this...
Quoting eyestalker:

...And here come the Texas northcasters wishcasting themselves some rain. :D



Bastardi thinks it's headed to Manhattan.
Oh how I wish it would come further north. We desperately need the rain here in Texas.
Quoting Buhdog:
from melbourne nws


00Z GFS RUN SEEMS TO SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY WITH MORE DEEP STREAMING
MOISTURE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CURRENT
30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
Link
I'm surprised to see them mentioning that since its so far out. The latest 12z GFS also hinted at the same thing showing a blob of rain and some vorticity in the northern Caribbean (just south of extreme western Cuba) in a little over a week. It then takes this blob into the gulf and runs it into northern Florida. On the model run it doesn't really develop it into a tropical storm, but it is obvious something is there from the 850mb vort map



still a long ways out, so anything could happen. However, the upper level pattern over the Caribbean during that time period will be favorable as a nice upper level anticyclone is forecasted to be over the northern Caribbean in a week, which would be right over the blob


Recon is already encountering TS winds.
Yeaaaaaaaaa....lets take another look here....looking like maybe a 150 mile jump to the NE, bring me my rain!!!
Quoting BobinTampa:



Bastardi thinks it's headed to Manhattan.

oh please, Accuweather jokes are old ;p
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Stationary was a joke, notice the lat/lon in the data is not changing.
I know, I was just pointing out that the plane is up at 7750 meters
Bastardi aint at accuweather,,he is the Chief Ding Dong @ Weatherbell.com now.

there he is called,,"The Atmospheric Avenger"

ACK!..snicker,,coff!!
Quoting Patrap:
Bastardi aint at accuweather,,he is the Chief Ding Dong @ Weatherbell.com now.

there he is called,,"The Atmospheric Avenger"

ACK!..snicker,,coff!!


Be better to call him the Ding Dong, matches well with weatherBELL
Off to work. Later all.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm surprised to see them mentioning that since its so far out. The latest 12z GFS also hinted at the same thing showing a blob of rain and some vorticity in the northern Caribbean (just south of extreme western Cuba) in a little over a week. It then takes this blob into the gulf and runs it into northern Florida. On the model run it doesn't really develop it into a tropical storm, but it is obvious something is there from the 850mb vort map



still a long ways out, so anything could happen. However, the upper level pattern over the Caribbean during that time period will be favorable as a nice upper level anticyclone is forecasted to be over the northern Caribbean in a week, which would be right over the blob




This scenario makes perfect sense when you factor in that in 2005 Cindy formed in the northwestern Caribbean less than a week after the demise of Bret which is similar in track and location to this year's Arlene. And there already is a tropical wave just east of the Antilles with spin which would obviously play a major role in the development of this "next" system. And then you factor in the wave that just came off of Africa and the one right behind it (only one of those can/will develop)...we could have another July 2005 on our hands, only with one storm less already having been in the books.
000
URNT15 KNHC 292010
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 12 20110629
200030 2329N 09426W 3927 07714 0400 -142 //// 094029 030 /// /// 05
200100 2326N 09427W 3925 07718 0401 -144 //// 098027 028 /// /// 05
200130 2324N 09428W 3926 07716 0400 -146 //// 091026 027 041 009 05
200200 2322N 09429W 3929 07707 0400 -144 //// 082030 032 039 012 01
200230 2319N 09430W 4043 07503 0397 -128 //// 092030 030 038 009 01
200300 2317N 09431W 4183 07246 0379 -113 //// 094025 026 035 005 01
200330 2314N 09431W 4334 06971 0357 -094 //// 103027 031 033 007 01
200400 2312N 09432W 4480 06715 0342 -087 //// 098032 033 034 006 01
200430 2310N 09433W 4646 06438 0327 -070 //// 099033 034 035 005 01
200500 2307N 09434W 4805 06173 0307 -056 //// 111031 034 035 005 01
200530 2305N 09435W 4954 05929 0286 -044 //// 116030 032 034 002 01
200600 2303N 09436W 5094 05695 0263 -032 //// 124033 036 038 006 01
200630 2301N 09436W 5242 05466 0246 -030 //// 127030 035 037 006 01
200700 2259N 09437W 5385 05248 0230 -011 //// 137038 044 034 010 01
200730 2257N 09438W 5506 05071 //// -017 //// 144042 048 035 010 05
200800 2255N 09438W 5700 04791 //// -002 //// 133039 041 038 011 05
200830 2253N 09439W 5768 04694 //// +004 //// 132041 044 042 014 01
200900 2251N 09440W 5902 04515 //// +017 //// 127040 043 042 015 01
200930 2249N 09440W 6117 04222 //// +024 //// 131029 035 043 015 01
201000 2248N 09441W 6281 04002 //// +029 //// 133035 036 040 011 01
$$
;
Time: 20:10:00Z
Coordinates: 22.8N 94.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 628.1 mb (~ 18.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,002 meters (~ 13,130 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 35 knots (From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 2.9°C* (~ 37.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Descending now.
535. Jax82
Time: 20:09:30Z
Coordinates: 22.8167N 94.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 611.7 mb (~ 18.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,222 meters (~ 13,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 131° at 29 knots (From the SE at ~ 33.3 mph)
Air Temp: 2.4°C* (~ 36.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
No rain for San Antonio.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

In Brownsville as a matter of fact.


that makes at least 2 of us.
Quoting eyestalker:


This scenario makes perfect sense when you factor in that in 2005 Cindy formed in the northwestern Caribbean less than a week after the demise of Bret which is similar in track and location to this year's Arlene. And there already is a tropical wave just east of the Antilles with spin which would obviously play a major role in the development of this "next" system. And then you factor in the wave that just came off of Africa and the one right behind it (only one of those can/will develop)...we could have another July 2005 on our hands, only with one storm less already having been in the books.

Sounds great,looks like 4 storms possible in July
Wow Arlene is looken great on last sat.
I bet they wil find 70mph winds with it pressure of 994.
Quoting Orcasystems:


like it or not the winds bars areshowing something like a center even before reaching the first center
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Sounds great,looks like 4 storms possible in July

So we have Bret-Arlene, Cindy-Bret seems on the horizon, Dennis-Cindy is possible with the wave south of the CV islands but we don't have an Emily-Dennis yet in sight 40 degrees of longitude east of the "Dennis-Cindy" wave or certainly anything analogous beyond that so don't count chickens before they hatch.
Quoting Patrap:

Arlene so close to land?
Quoting eyestalker:


This scenario makes perfect sense when you factor in that in 2005 Cindy formed in the northwestern Caribbean less than a week after the demise of Bret which is similar in track and location to this year's Arlene. And there already is a tropical wave just east of the Antilles with spin which would obviously play a major role in the development of this "next" system. And then you factor in the wave that just came off of Africa and the one right behind it (only one of those can/will develop)...we could have another July 2005 on our hands, only with one storm less already having been in the books.
yep, we'll have to keep a look out over the gulf and Caribbean during July.

Upward motion is forecasted to be pretty strong over the period as MJO hangs in our area

Quoting deepee:


that makes at least 2 of us.

cool :)
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Sounds great,looks like 4 storms possible in July
that's a bit much. but anything is possible...
551. j2008
Quoting eyestalker:

So we have Bret-Arlene, Cindy-Bret seems on the horizon, Dennis-Cindy is possible with the wave south of the CV islands but we don't have an Emily-Dennis yet in sight 40 degrees of longitude east of the "Dennis-Cindy" wave or certainly anything analogous beyond that so don't count chickens before they hatch.

Well I say we should buckle up and be perpared for quite a ride next month then.
Interesting...

202900 2204N 09517W 9665 00297 //// 196 //// 162054 056 067 033 01
Afternoon, everyone. Certainly looks like Arlene has formed a new center closer to the middle of the convection. A hurricane is certainly possible now.
Quoting TomTaylor:
that's a bit much. but anything is possible...

Even in the prime analog year 2008 we had 4, so it's not really much...in 2005 we had 6.
Some folks need to slow down; still dealing with Arlene (no landfall yet) and alreay talking about four storms in July?.........Not likely...... :)
557. wpb
nobody has posted the mexico radar thats weak by the blog
Just curious but how think we will get a NAMED STORM between july 1st and july 10th? i say yes only i think after july 4th what about you guys
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 20:19Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.4N 94.9W
Location: 189 miles (304 km) to the E (86°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 370 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 47 knots (From the SE at ~ 54.0 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1002 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 40 knots (From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 41 knots (~ 47.2mph)
Just for the record (if hasn't been posted yet) -
Checking the supplemental observations from Buoy Station 42055 showed it did record TS force conditions in Arlene's E semi-circle, with the storm's center ~125 nautical miles to the SW.

Conditions at 42055 as of (1:50 pm CDT) 1850 GMT on 06/29/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts / 35.79 mph
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts / 44.77 mph
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.8 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F

Continuous Winds (10 minute avg)
TIME (CDT) / Wind Direction WDIR / Wind Speed WSPD
1:50 pm / SE ( 127 deg ) / 29.9 kts
1:40 pm / SE ( 130 deg ) / 30.1 kts
1:30 pm / SE ( 126 deg ) / 32.4 kts
1:20 pm / SE ( 132 deg ) / 31.5 kts
1:10 pm / SE ( 133 deg ) / 33.2 kts
1:00 pm / SE ( 136 deg ) / 29.3 kts

Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (CDT) 1:27 pm
Pressure 29.63 in / 1003.39 mb

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) 1:09 pm
1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD: 36.9 kts / 42.46 mph
1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR: SE ( 130 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME (CDT): 1:09 pm
Gust Speed GST: 40.8 kts / 46.95 mph
Gust Direction GDR: SE ( 130 deg )

We aren't having 4 storms in July. Even the super hyperactive season that was 2005 (ended with 28-15-7) "only" had 5.
000
URNT15 KNHC 292030
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 14 20110629
202030 2221N 09458W 9702 00276 //// +216 //// 131050 051 041 010 01
202100 2220N 09500W 9697 00280 //// +205 //// 127047 048 042 011 01
202130 2218N 09501W 9702 00276 //// +201 //// 121050 052 043 016 01
202200 2217N 09502W 9706 00274 //// +200 //// 121048 050 048 023 01
202230 2216N 09503W 9669 00303 //// +197 //// 135043 048 057 040 05
202300 2215N 09504W 9653 00316 //// +191 //// 140052 056 050 027 01
202330 2214N 09505W 9670 00303 //// +191 //// 139060 062 052 011 01
202400 2213N 09507W 9663 00304 //// +200 //// 140055 057 047 008 01
202430 2212N 09508W 9659 00305 //// +203 //// 140052 054 046 012 05
202500 2211N 09509W 9666 00298 //// +205 //// 146049 052 044 011 01
202530 2210N 09510W 9668 00293 //// +207 //// 150054 056 043 007 01
202600 2209N 09511W 9665 00299 //// +212 //// 155053 055 043 006 01
202630 2208N 09512W 9662 00302 //// +214 //// 160058 063 048 006 01
202700 2207N 09513W 9667 00296 //// +207 //// 163060 064 048 008 01
202730 2206N 09514W 9666 00297 //// +196 //// 166058 059 051 010 01
202800 2205N 09515W 9665 00294 //// +191 //// 164059 060 058 016 01
202830 2205N 09516W 9660 00302 //// +192 //// 163058 060 065 030 01
202900 2204N 09517W 9665 00297 //// +196 //// 162054 056 067 033 01
202930 2203N 09518W 9661 00303 //// +196 //// 164040 043 062 041 01
203000 2202N 09519W 9673 00296 //// +196 //// 162034 042 060 041 05
$$
;


67 knt surface winds
Tropical Storm ARLENE Public Advisory
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



000
WTNT31 KNHC 292033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 96.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO
LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ARLENE
COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...AND EASTERN NUEVO
LEON...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN




So they found hurricane force winds using the SFMR instrument. Let's see what happens...

Quoting CybrTeddy:
553. 67 knots?
Yes.
553. 67 knots?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
We aren't having 4 storms in July. Even the super hyperactive season that was 2005 (ended with 28-15-7) "only" had 5.

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how many storms in July did the nearly-perfect analog year of 2008 have in July? And how many hurricanes?

Some people need to understand some things aren't really that unrealistic. A Cat 5 hitting NYC? Yes, unrealistic. 4 named storms and 2 hurricanes in July? NOT unrealistic.
Wasn't playing around saying a 50-75 mile center jump to the NE

BTW, wait'll till D-Max, think it's colorful now, you aint seen nuttin yet

Seems like the center is/has reformed.

Looks like the data came in after the advisory was released. I doubt this system is still a 50mph TS.
Quoting eyestalker:

So we have Bret-Arlene, Cindy-Bret seems on the horizon, Dennis-Cindy is possible with the wave south of the CV islands but we don't have an Emily-Dennis yet in sight 40 degrees of longitude east of the "Dennis-Cindy" wave or certainly anything analogous beyond that so don't count chickens before they hatch.

Just wait, we'll probably have something.
Quoting eyestalker:

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how many storms in July did the nearly-perfect analog year of 2008 have in July? And how many hurricanes?

Some people need to understand some things aren't really that unrealistic. A Cat 5 hitting NYC? Yes, unrealistic. 4 named storms and 2 hurricanes in July? NOT unrealistic.


I don't know how many storms we will have in July but is 2005 a "near perfect" analog year? I have never heard any expert call any analog year near perfect.
Time: 20:27:00Z
Coordinates: 22.1167N 95.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.7 mb (~ 28.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 296 meters (~ 971 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163° at 60 knots (From the SSE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.7°C* (~ 69.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 knots (~ 73.6 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't know how many storms we will have in July but is 2005 a "near perfect" analog year? I have never heard any expert call any analog year near perfect.

I posted 2008, get glasses!
See that junk coming onshore down in the Pacific? that's gonna feed into her later tonight, and then Ka BOOM! hurricane Arlene has now reached it's destination...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the data came in after the advisory was released. I doubt this system is still a 50mph TS.



If the vortex message is much different from the current advisory, then they will do an update statement.

I think that's likely.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the data came in after the advisory was released. I doubt this system is still a 50mph TS.


Not surprised to see the data coming in. Satellite presentation shows Arlene is definitely getting a bit stronger.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Time: 20:27:00Z
Coordinates: 22.1167N 95.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.7 mb (~ 28.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 296 meters (~ 971 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163° at 60 knots (From the SSE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.7°C* (~ 69.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 knots (~ 73.6 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Its flight level
67kts, where in relation to the COC?
guys HH are finding strong TS winds , the NHC is probably waiting for recon to finish and winds will probably be 65-70MPH at the 8pm update
lol. Arlene isn't a hurricane. Looks nothing like a hurricane.
Quoting eyestalker:

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how many storms in July did the nearly-perfect analog year of 2008 have in July? And how many hurricanes?

Some people need to understand some things aren't really that unrealistic. A Cat 5 hitting NYC? Yes, unrealistic. 4 named storms and 2 hurricanes in July? NOT unrealistic.


No year is a nearly-perfect analogue year. And I don't know about you, but having a July four times as active as average in terms of named storms is pretty darn rare. Link Scroll down to Table 1.
Quoting eyestalker:

I posted 2008, get glasses!


My bad on the year. But still my point in how can any year be "near perfect" as an analog?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the data came in after the advisory was released. I doubt this system is still a 50mph TS.


They're going to have to release a special update with some of the wind reports being higher than that...Makes you wonder why they'd release that Public Advisory, only to have to change it soon. I'd be highly surprised if this only had 50mph sustained winds.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't know how many storms we will have in July but is 2005 a "near perfect" analog year? I have never heard any expert call any analog year near perfect.


2005 isn't considered to be an analog year. 2008 and 1989 are considered analog years.

Flight level winds alone indicate a 65 mph TS so far. Lets see what else they find.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Its flight level
and it's a 10 second gust, not 1 minute sustained
Quoting eyestalker:
lol. Arlene isn't a hurricane. Looks nothing like a hurricane.


There is no definite pattern for what a hurricane can and cannot look like, sure some shapes are more common then others, but even an ugly looking storm can have the winds of a hurricane.
Time: 20:23:30Z
Coordinates: 22.2333N 95.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 967.0 mb (~ 28.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 303 meters (~ 994 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 139° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 19.1°C* (~ 66.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting clwstmchasr:


My bad on the year. But still my point in how can any year be "near perfect" as an analog?

ENSO position is king, as well as what flavor of the ENSO did we have last winter.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Seems like the center is/has reformed.





seem like its weaking some
by the observations from recon we probably have a 60 MPH tropical storm in the next advisory
Time: 20:28:30Z
Coordinates: 22.0833N 95.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.0 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 302 meters (~ 991 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163 at 58 knots (From the SSE at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.2C* (~ 66.6F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (~ 1.18 in/hr)


woah. 10s gust, but still
Time: 20:29:00Z
Coordinates: 22.0667N 95.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162° at 54 knots (From the SSE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C* (~ 67.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
597. j2008
Quoting MrstormX:


There is no definite pattern for what a hurricane can and cannot look like, sure some shapes are more common then others, but even an ugly looking storm can have the winds of a hurricane.
Exactly, and look at Beatriz over in the pacific just a few days ago. It sure wasnt the prettiest hurricane.
Keep an eye on the wave east of the lesser anitlies as it looks pretty healthy and once it enters the carribean in about 2 to 3 days it might have the oppertunity to develop if shear relaxes in the carribean
599. HCW
Quoting Seflhurricane:
guys HH are finding strong TS winds , the NHC is probably waiting for recon to finish and winds will probably be 65-70MPH at the 8pm update


Don't you mean 7pm update and most of the time they never bump the winds up for Intermediate advisorys
recon is now in the center of arlene, i would like to see flight level observations on the S/SW quadrant
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 20:29:00Z
Coordinates: 22.0667N 95.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162° at 54 knots (From the SSE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C* (~ 67.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Lets see if they find more of these then we have a hurricane
Since we don't know the extrapolated surface pressure we need to guide ourselves by the wind shifts to know whether they've reached the circulation or not. Looks like they're about to enter it, but I'm assuming they're going to need to drop a dropsonde to know the surface pressure.
Quoting Tazmanian:




seem like its weaking some


Doesn't to me, new flare up of deep convection right over the COC.
Quoting j2008:
Exactly, and look at Beatriz over in the pacific just a few days ago. It sure wasnt the prettiest hurricane.

Beatriz sure won't be happy when she hears that.
Quoting HCW:


Don't you mean 7pm update and most of the time they never bump the winds up for Intermediate advisorys
yes for the 7pm and the NHC has bumped winds in any advisory , but they may likely issue a special advisory or wait till 7PM
606. j2008
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 20:29:00Z
Coordinates: 22.0667N 95.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162° at 54 knots (From the SSE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C* (~ 67.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting TomTaylor:
Time: 20:28:30Z
Coordinates: 22.0833N 95.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.0 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 302 meters (~ 991 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163� at 58 knots (From the SSE at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.2�C* (~ 66.6�F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (~ 1.18 in/hr)


woah. 10s gust, but still

Looks like so definative data to support a low end cat 1 hurricane.
I'm guessing they will issue a special advisory before the intermediate, but first they will let the HH do a couple sweeps of the center for consistency and accuracy.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No year is a nearly-perfect analogue year. And I don't know about you, but having a July four times as active as average in terms of named storms is pretty darn rare. Link Scroll down to Table 1.

If you're using the "long term" average which includes more years than not with the cold-AMO in place (before 1995)...then you get the just over once-a-year July average. But using the long term average is foolish, only go by the 1995-2010 average because that is the period of hurricane activity (warm AMO) we are in and the numbers are much higher across the board. And then you throw out the moderate to strong El Nino years (1997, 2004, 2006, 2009)...
Everything the recon is indicating shows that Arlene is a 65-70 mph Tropical Storm at this time. Lets see what the first vortex message shows.
Convection is blowing up near the center.
High Res:Link
Looks like the circulation has reformed north of the previous vortex from earlier today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Everything the recon is indicating shows that Arlene is a 65-70 mph Tropical Storm at this time. Lets see what the first vortex message shows.
We even got some hurricane force winds.
Quoting j2008:

Looks like so definative data to support a low end cat 1 hurricane.
those are 10 second gusts, not 1 minute winds.
The northwest quadrant looks the sloppiest in Arlene as there still is some dry air but its not that bad. im giving arlene a 40 percent chance of becoming a hurricane but it really doenst matter if it becomes one. a strong ts and hurricane that is weak is about the same
We have a 70mph tropical storm on the weakest i wish we could get a pressure reading
Quoting j2008:

Looks like so definative data to support a low end cat 1 hurricane.

Yah that shows a cat1 74.3 winds.
I think Arlene will make hurricane status by 8pm or a special advisory before according to HHs data.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Wow, the NHC is way off.

Wut makes u say that?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Wow, the NHC is way off.
they never make changes if recon is investigating they will normally issue an update, its not that they are off
Expect the Vortex message, followed by another sweep by the HH and then a special advisory.
She looks like she's giving it a go at improving her core

Link
Is the hurricane watch new?
Time: 20:39:00Z
Coordinates: 21.7167N 95.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.1 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 296 meters (~ 971 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 98° at 14 knots (From the E at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.3°C* (~ 73.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data I think the COC might have relocated a little further N
Both of those winds at surface level were higher than at flight level, which either says it's a gust or it's suspect.

I doubt it's a hurricane yet. Not so by the appearance (Category one hurricanes are rarely 'pretty'), but the winds are not sustained enough.

That said, looks a little higher than the 50mph it's been posted at.
Time: 20:28:30Z
Coordinates: 22.0833N 95.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.0 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 302 meters (~ 991 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163° at 58 knots (From the SSE at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.2°C* (~ 66.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (~ 1.18 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting j2008:

Looks like so definative data to support a low end cat 1 hurricane.


If they are flying near or around the 925 mb level, then the surface winds are 75% of the flight level winds.
If you are looking for an Analog storm in terms of track, location and strength Hurricane Debby (1988) is a fit:



Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Wut makes u say that?

Sorry, I remembered that they don't change data while recon is investigating. *facepalm*
I'm deleting the comment before anyone else gets confused.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is the hurricane watch new?

its been there since this morning
Time: 20:23:30Z
Coordinates: 22.2333N 95.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 967.0 mb (~ 28.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 303 meters (~ 994 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 139° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 19.1°C* (~ 66.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
looks to me arlene is going to make landfall just south of tampico mexico
Quoting Cotillion:
Both of those winds at surface level were higher than at flight level, which either says it's a gust or it's suspect.

I doubt it's a hurricane yet. Not so by the appearance (Category one hurricanes are rarely 'pretty'), but the winds are not sustained enough.

That said, looks a little higher than the 50mph it's been posted at.


Suspect to me also, when SFMR>Flight level, also they were in areas of rain.
Once that Pacific junk gets sucked into her tonight, she'll be ready to take her robe off and bare all...

Quoting Hurrykane:


If they are flying near or around the 925 mb level, then the surface winds are 75% of the flight level winds.


Its not the flight level winds that are just gusting to hurricane force, there are several SFMR indications as well. They could be gusts, but needless to say this probably isn't at 50 mph anymore. 65 I would hazard to guess.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Once that Pacific junk gets sucked into her tonight, she'll be ready to take her robe off and bare all...

......lol
639. beell
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH
RECENTLY THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGINNING
TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH ANOTHER
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED TO PENETRATE THE CENTER VERY
SOON. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE OVER 24
HOURS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND WOULD HALT STRENGTHENING
SOONER THAN THAT TIME FRAME. THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
MITIGATES THE INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ARLENE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55-65 KT BETWEEN THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL...AND
THUS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY MAY HAVE PARTIALLY
EXPLAINED THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION NOTED IN THE AIRCRAFT
FIXES FROM EARLIER TODAY. A LONGER-TERM...AND LIKELY MORE
REPRESENTATIVE...MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 270/6. A STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
ARLENE SHOULD CAUSE A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER. THE LATTER HAS OFTEN
BEEN NOTED AS TROPICAL CYCLONES INTERACT WITH THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AS
WELL.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.1N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.1N 96.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 21.0N 98.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z 20.6N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1800Z 20.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Yah that shows a cat1 74.3 winds.
no, it shows 74.3 wind gusts. storms are rated on 1 minute sustained winds, not 10 second gusts.

as far as I am aware, there is no data suggesting a cat 1 hurricane.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its not the flight level winds that are just gusting to hurricane force, there are several SFMR indications as well. They could be gusts, but needless to say this probably isn't at 50 mph anymore. 65 I would hazard to guess.

teddy any thoughts after arlene leaves that something develops like any waves or are models picking up on something?
Data supports 60 - 65 mph tropical storm imo, anything above that is still suspect unless there are consistent readings in that range.
People seem to be missing the little number in parenthesis which clearly says 10s or 10 seconds. This is a 10 second wind gust, not a 1 minute sustained wind

Time: 20:29:00Z
Coordinates: 22.0667N 95.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162 at 54 knots (From the SSE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6C* (~ 67.3F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
Quoting elninosucks:

teddy any thoughts after arlene leaves that something develops like any waves or are models picking up on something?


Many have picked up on one or multiple "coast hugging" storms along the Eastern Seaboard but whether that pans out will be a mystery for now.
FYI, this is one of those situations again, where this storm will look it's best over land, watch it, seen it too many times before
i still watching tw0 more tropical wave to watch
647, WOW!
649. j2008
Wonder how soon bret is going to come around?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Once that Pacific junk gets sucked into her tonight, she'll be ready to take her robe off and bare all...


Just don't start talking that way about the guy-named storms.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i still watching tw0 more tropical wave to watch


Wouldn't be surprised if we see another system in 10 days or so.
Ok just curious do you guys think bret will form in the carribean/atlantic/gulf(1) or off the east coast (2) i say 1
Time: 20:29:00Z
Coordinates: 22.0667N 95.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162� at 54 knots (From the SSE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6�C* (~ 67.3�F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)

The similarity between the 10s peak winds and the 30s ones indictae that 1min sustained wind speed isn't that much lower though, unless I have misunderstood the data (which wouldn't be a surprise)
Still no vortex...
655. j2008
Quoting elninosucks:
Ok just curious do you guys think bret will form in the carribean/atlantic/gulf(1) or off the east coast (2) i say 1

Gut feeling, 1.
IDK but iv seen hurricanes that look worse than this.
Link
Quoting eyestalker:

If you're using the "long term" average which includes more years than not with the cold-AMO in place (before 1995)...then you get the just over once-a-year July average. But using the long term average is foolish, only go by the 1995-2010 average because that is the period of hurricane activity (warm AMO) we are in and the numbers are much higher across the board. And then you throw out the moderate to strong El Nino years (1997, 2004, 2006, 2009)...


While it's true that we are in a period of a warm AMO (and now a cold PDO is taking over), only one season in the 1995-2010 period showed the July activity that you described in your other post when you said "4 named storms and 2 hurricanes in July? NOT unrealistic." That was 2005 and it was a once in a lifetime kind of season. If you take off the 2 hurricanes requirement then there are an additional 2 or so season that met that kind of activity. While I agree it is a whole lot less unrealistic than a Cat 5 strike on NYC, it's still rather rare. I guess it just depends on what your definition of "unrealistic" is. There's no point in arguing over that lol. Agree to disagree?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still no vortex...


Just got to the center, notice flight level winds 7-9 kt.
im waiting for the 18 z gfs to come out maybe it will sniff out a system in the coming week
Believe it or not the last two bret's were in the BOC/GOM 1999 and 2005
Has anybody else who is plotting the Live Recon Data on Google Earth noticed the pictures of places like Veracruz out in the GOM near the old center of Arlene? Just noticed the picture symbols and started checking them to see what they had taken pictures of out in the middle of the water. A little off on the coordinates.
SFMR readings slowed to a crawl.. And they must be near the center, maybe a little bit to the NW.
No center fix from recon yet huh? Wonder if they will turn back quickly and look for it before checking the other quadrants.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Just got to the center, notice flight level winds 7-9 kt.
Yeah, starting to find some definitive west winds too (almost). Circulation isn't too well defined then.
Quoting deepee:


that makes at least 2 of us.


make that 3
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, starting to find some definitive west winds too (almost). Circulation isn't too well defined then.


It probably relocated then.
Quoting elninosucks:
Ok just curious do you guys think bret will form in the carribean/atlantic/gulf(1) or off the east coast (2) i say 1


I'd say 2, but I don't think we'll actually see Bret within the next two weeks. Maybe another invest....I'l still go with 2.
652. elninosucks 2:10 PM PDT on June 29, 2011

Ok just curious do you guys think bret will form in the carribean/atlantic/gulf(1) or off the east coast (2) i say 1


Neither.... Brett is going to form over the Pacific, near South Orange County, Calif, in Mid July.....
Here's your center

211300 2124N 09526W 9655 00273 //// +234 //// 119002 004 /// /// 05
211330 2123N 09526W 9665 00262 //// +235 //// 344001 003 /// /// 05
Quoting NRAamy:
652. elninosucks 2:10 PM PDT on June 29, 2011

Ok just curious do you guys think bret will form in the carribean/atlantic/gulf(1) or off the east coast (2) i say 1


Neither.... Brett is going to form over the Pacific, near South Orange County, Calif, in Mid July.....


Great! maybe you'll dissapear from the blog, HA!
671. j2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It probably relocated then.

Thats a very good guess in my opinion. Thats what I think it did.
A spurned man, is not a friendly man.
Quoting IceCoast:
Here's your center

211300 2124N 09526W 9655 00273 //// +234 //// 119002 004 /// /// 05
211330 2123N 09526W 9665 00262 //// +235 //// 344001 003 /// /// 05


bret might hit new orleans maybe
aqua....

;)
000
URNT12 KNHC 292125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/21:11:20Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
095 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm
F. 163 deg 64 kt
G. 021 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 396 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
;
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
URNT12 KNHC 292125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/21:11:20Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
095 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm
F. 163 deg 64 kt
G. 021 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 396 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
;





so dos this mean we have are 1st hurricane?
Drank, why oh why is everything going to hit NO? What do you have against NO?
70 or 75?
maybe anew invest coming from one of this tropical wave!!
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
70?



66kt and 64kt is right there at 75mph
Both the HWRF and CMC develop multiple East Coast Storms, I don't buy it yet but if a more reliable model jumped on board I would.
996 with 76 mph winds on the vortex message.

Will be interesting how the NHC responds to that.
Not yet, Taz. Be patient sweety, it will come. And it won't stay a Cat1 when it does.

modified- let's wait and see what the NHC says.
Quoting Tazmanian:



so dos this mean we have are 1st hurricane?


Guessing the NHC is going to let the HH do another run before issuing a Special Advisory.
According to recon she's a hurricane but will have to wait for the nhc to confrim.
687. j2008
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
maybe anew invest coming from one of this tropical wave!!

They all have a bit of spin to them. I give about 90% chance that bret will come from one of those three waves.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
URNT12 KNHC 292125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/21:11:20Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
095 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm
F. 163 deg 64 kt
G. 021 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 396 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
;

How much is 66kt on mph?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

How much is 66kt on mph?


76 mph.
NHC might actually be liberal with this HH data, just like they were yesterday in naming this system.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

How much is 66kt on mph?


a handy link for just that question

Link

(65kt = 74.9mph)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

How much is 66kt on mph?


65 knots = 75mph = hurricane (Cat 1)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
996 with 76 mph winds on the vortex message.

Will be interesting how the NHC responds to that.


I think she's still in the process of relocating her center even farther to the north and east. Hard to see a center at 21.4 north. Eyes may be failing me though.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


76 mph.

Thanks.
So unofficially she's a hurricane but we need recon to go in for another pass.
Quoting MrstormX:
NHC might actually be liberal with this HH data, just like they were yesterday in naming this system.


Totally agree
Quoting Tazmanian:



so dos this mean we have are 1st hurricane?

If NHC stick to this then yes we do.
Quoting aquak9:
A spurned man, is not a friendly man.


;)
Quoting NRAamy:
aqua....

;)


Yea ;)
all that winkin'...ya'll got something caught in your eye?
Quoting j2008:

They all have a bit of spin to them. I give about 90% chance that bret will come from one of those three waves.

one in particular looks very well and could develop in the carribean next week.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


76 mph.
Quoting aquak9:


a handy link for just that question

Link

(65kt = 74.9mph)
Quoting weatherman566:


65 knots = 75mph = hurricane (Cat 1)

OK, OK, I get it already! XD
Quoting CybrTeddy:
996 with 76 mph winds on the vortex message.

Will be interesting how the NHC responds to that.


60 - 65mph T.S.
Isn't that max flight level winds?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
maybe anew invest coming from one of this tropical wave!!




not the 1st wave but the 2nd wave has the best ch out of the 3 right now the 3rd wave in be hid it looks like too be falling a part
Quoting swapilot:
Isn't that max flight level winds?


No, that's at the bottom. Those were SFMR readings.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, that's at the bottom. Those were SFMR readings.
Thanks Ted
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:11:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2120'N 9530'W (21.3333N 95.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the ESE (112) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNE (17) of center fix
Sorry for the noob question, but could someone briefly explain how to plot the live recon data on google earth?

Looking at the TPW animation it looks like a moisture flow was feeding Arlene from the East but a lull just crossed over Cancun.. Is it about to run out of steam?

Boom shocka locka

Vortex message says the max winds are convection induced.
Quoting Orcasystems:

looks like the center did relocate abit NE
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK, OK, I get it already! XD


Whenever you ask a question on this blog, be sure to expect 10 same answers. ;)
Looks like they will make another run:

000
URNT15 KNHC 292140
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 21 20110629
213030 2045N 09607W 9667 00300 //// +232 //// 328021 022 009 007 05
213100 2044N 09608W 9664 00304 //// +229 //// 332020 021 016 009 05
213130 2043N 09609W 9663 00306 //// +230 //// 335021 022 014 008 05
213200 2042N 09611W 9663 00308 //// +232 //// 332022 024 011 008 05
213230 2041N 09612W 9664 00306 //// +236 //// 328025 026 010 008 01
213300 2040N 09613W 9663 00309 //// +218 //// 327024 025 026 017 05
213330 2038N 09614W 9672 00302 //// +202 //// 304034 036 033 012 05
213400 2037N 09615W 9657 00315 //// +214 //// 307037 038 031 011 05
213430 2036N 09616W 9665 00309 //// +231 //// 310035 037 033 008 05
213500 2035N 09618W 9667 00309 //// +234 //// 314036 040 039 010 05
213530 2034N 09619W 9675 00299 //// +198 //// 312044 050 062 032 05
213600 2033N 09620W 9641 00338 //// +193 //// 297039 044 061 055 05
213630 2032N 09621W 9668 00312 //// +196 //// 287043 044 045 049 05
213700 2031N 09622W 9666 00314 //// +217 //// 287044 045 037 024 05
213730 2030N 09623W 9666 00313 //// +224 //// 284044 046 037 010 05
213800 2029N 09624W 9664 00317 //// +223 //// 283044 045 035 006 01
213830 2028N 09625W 9662 00319 //// +226 //// 283044 044 033 007 05
213900 2027N 09626W 9669 00314 //// +226 //// 283041 042 035 006 05
213930 2027N 09627W 9669 00315 //// +223 //// 281041 043 037 007 05
214000 2026N 09628W 9656 00327 //// +222 //// 280042 044 039 004 05
$$
;

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

looks like the center did relocate abit NE


I would agree... but it also looks like they are double checking
Quoting HarryMc:
Vortex message says the max winds are convection induced.


Meaning they're away from the center.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Whenever you ask a question on this blog, be sure to expect 10 same answers. ;)

Geez I only wanted one. :P
GEEZUS

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
100.4 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would agree... but it also looks like they are double checking

yep
I don't know if my eyes are playing tricks, but you can kind of see that relocation on satellite animations also.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:11:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21�20'N 95�30'W (21.3333N 95.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the ESE (112�) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, M�xico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNE (17�) of center fix
So what exsacaly does it mean?
723. j2008
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what exsacaly does it mean?

It means we possibly have our first hurricane.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what exsacaly does it mean?


It means they found

Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)

Quoting Orcasystems:


how far is the vortex message from the advisory center?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Meaning they're away from the center.


Makes sense since it's a relatively new center.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Boom shocka locka



Lucky duck!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Whenever you ask a question on this blog, be sure to expect 10 same answers. ;)
Or none at all.
I gotta admit, I will be a little surprised if NHC upgrades, not cause of the data, but cause they've always been so conservative in the past. Always at least once or twice a Season™, there's one or two storms we figure they shoulda upgraded.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


how far is the vortex message from the advisory center?


26.37 miles
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


how far is the vortex message from the advisory center?


26.374 miles
Quoting aquak9:


26.374 miles


I was rounding :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what exsacaly does it mean?




it means where all DOOM
I was being silly...what'ya expect? :)
Quoting aquak9:
I gotta admit, I will be a little surprised if NHC upgrades, not cause of the data, but cause they've always been so conservative in the past. Always at least once or twice a Season™, there's one or two storms we figure they shoulda upgraded.
Close to land and they may be concerned news coverage in Mexico moves slower. Just saying.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Meaning they're away from the center.


I would disagree since item E in the Vortex message already provides the distance/bearing of the winds reported in D.

D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm


I think they mean the winds were convection induced and not representative of the true winds. See what NHC does at the 8 PM update.
Thank you everyone.I not very good with those things.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Close to land and they may be concerned news coverage in Mexico moves slower. Just saying.


And it does, barely a mention in the local Tampico Newspaper...
733. Tazmanian 2:55 PM PDT on June 29, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what exsacaly does it mean?



it means where all DOOM




hahahahahahahahaha!!

:)
740. DEKRE
Quoting aquak9:


26.374 miles

Marvelous accuracy!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would disagree since item E in the Vortex message already provides the distance/bearing of the winds reported in D.

D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm


I think they mean the winds were convection induced and not representative of the true winds. See what NHC does at the 8 PM update.


Then what the hell is a tropical system then, they expect sunshine with sustained winds or what
Quoting aquak9:
I was being silly...what'ya expect? :)


YOU!!! never.
Quoting DEKRE:

Marvelous accuracy!


man my math came up with 26.3742... I guess I was wrong
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


man my math came up with 26.3742... I guess I was wrong


Math... I just used the ruler in Google earth.
Taz- THIS is a DOOM vortex- from the wee hours of Sept 3, 2007:

303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT

We don't EVER wanna see THAT!!!
Quoting aquak9:
Taz- THIS is a DOOM vortex- from the wee hours of Sept 3, 2007:

303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT

We don't EVER wanna see THAT!!!


Jesus for a minute there I thought that was data from Arlene :)
748. j2008
Quoting MrstormX:


Jesus for a minute there I thought that was data from Arlene :)

Wouldn't that scare the begebers out of everybody!
Quoting aquak9:
Taz- THIS is a DOOM vortex- from the wee hours of Sept 3, 2007:

303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT

We don't EVER wanna see THAT!!!




i want too see that i want too see that
750. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would disagree since item E in the Vortex message already provides the distance/bearing of the winds reported in D.

D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm


I think they mean the winds were convection induced and not representative of the true winds. See what NHC does at the 8 PM update.


Question:

If the winds are convection induced but they are recorded at the surface, and given that convection is a key ingredient in a tropical cyclone, shouldn't it be recognised as the maximum intensity of the system?

If these winds occured over land, then it could cause far greater damage than the moderate intensity tropical storm everyone is preparing for.

Quoting RitaEvac:
GEEZUS

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
100.4 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 115 °F


Yes, I know. I am just south of the port and it is TOASTY. Even the AC is struggling to keep up.
Quoting aquak9:
Taz- THIS is a DOOM vortex- from the wee hours of Sept 3, 2007:

303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT

We don't EVER wanna see THAT!!!
dear lord that scared the crap out of me i also thought it was arlene . LOLOLOLOL
JFv is now offically the most famous blogger on here.I mean he's almost mention everyday on here rather if it's directly or indirectly.
The center relocation could explain the odd appearance I was noticing earlier today.
746. Not as doom as the vortex message from the wee hours of October 19th, 2005.
A tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche, continued torrential rain here in Florida helping to pound away at the drought with more on the way. This is why I love this time of year as a weather freak!

The good news for Floridians, computer models are trying to send a solid tropical wave up the eastern later next week, possibly bringing a return to deep tropical rains again! Lets hope so! As long as it does not develop into anything worse than a tropical storm...
755.
DOOM vortex 101.
000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
Quoting FLdewey:
Not sure the gov`ment of meh-hee-co is covered under the Shower Curtain TReaty of 2009.
Lol
Quoting SLU:


Question:

If the winds are convection induced but they are recorded at the surface, and given that convection is a key ingredient in a tropical cyclone, shouldn't it be recognised as the maximum intensity of the system?

If these winds occured over land, then it could cause far greater damage than the moderate intensity tropical storm everyone is preparing for.



The meterologist on the plane thought it was significant enough to place it in the comments. I think it represents a gust as opposed to sustained winds.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
746. Not as doom as the vortex message from the wee hours of October 19th, 2005.

Wilma? Meh, everyone knew that one was going to weaken before Florida because it was in October and things just don't stay so strong in the Gulf late in the season.
I knew that was going freak out some people lol but not me I read what it was and it was from felix in 2007
F5.
763. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
755.
DOOM vortex 101.
000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB


What a bomb!
Quoting Jedkins01:
A tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche, continued torrential rain here in Florida helping to pound away at the drought with more on the way. This is why I love this time of year as a weather freak!

The good news for Floridians, computer models are trying to send a solid tropical wave up the eastern later next week, possibly bringing a return to deep tropical rains again! Lets hope so! As long as it does not develop into anything worse than a tropical storm...

Great for you guys in Florida, but lets see if Texas gets some relief too.
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I knew that was going freak out some people lol but not me I read what it was and it was from felix in 2007
As soon as it said September 3 2007 yep...Felix popped up.
Quoting washingtonian115:
As soon as it said September 3 2007 yep...Felix popped up.


Hmmmm
768. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The meterologist on the plane thought it was significant enough to place it in the comments. I think it represents a gust as opposted to sustained winds.


Based on Arlene's appearance that sounds more realistic.
SFMR
53 knots
(~ 60.9 mph)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS




and your point plzs?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmmm
Hmmm what?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great for you guys in Florida, but lets see if Texas gets some relief too.


Hopefully yes!
Quoting Jedkins01:
A tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche, continued torrential rain here in Florida helping to pound away at the drought with more on the way. This is why I love this time of year as a weather freak!

The good news for Floridians, computer models are trying to send a solid tropical wave up the eastern later next week, possibly bringing a return to deep tropical rains again! Lets hope so! As long as it does not develop into anything worse than a tropical storm...
Jedkins.... I'm not an alarmist or anything
But the way the A/B high is setting up does bode well Florida and as the storms make it into the gulf: Miss./Ala/ Texas/Mexico/Lousiana ? Don't you agree?
it all most seens like that we have a littl wind shear going on
770. Tazmanian 3:19 PM PDT on June 29, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS




and your point plzs?



hahahahaha!


taz is on a roll!


776. Tygor
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great for you guys in Florida, but lets see if Texas gets some relief too.


Most of the state just got an inch a week or so ago. We're good for another 3-4 months right?
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Or none at all.

Haha that is true also. I asked three time last night how the models initiate the intensity of the storm as I saw several of them start Arlene at 1008mb. There was reliable information from a nearby buoy that showed it at least 1005mb's.

If anyone knows the answer or has good information on how data is inserted into the model runs please post or pm me. I am still really curious.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Jedkins.... I'm not an alarmist or anything
But the way the A/B high is setting up does bode well Florida and as the storms make it into the gulf: Miss./Ala/ Texas/Mexico/Lousiana ? Don't you agree?
The high is strong,but there has also been a ridge over the southeast U.S their for protecting us from danger of any tropical cyclones.I have discuss on previous blogs that I wouldn't be surprised to see the ridge continue over the south.Their is a lag in the atmosphere from us transitioning from La nina to El nino.
Quoting Tygor:


Most of the state just got an inch a week or so ago. We're good for another 3-4 months right?

Florida or Texas?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Jedkins.... I'm not an alarmist or anything
But the way the A/B high is setting up does bode well Florida and as the storms make it into the gulf: Miss./Ala/ Texas/Mexico/Lousiana ? Don't you agree?


Absolutely, a look at the large scale pattern shift appears that a classic pattern is setting up that favors a very active wet season in Florida, one that I have not seen a long while. Also, hopefully that pattern will also lead to heavy rain along the rest of the drought stricken gulf coast, especially Texas.

As you mentioned, this pattern will likely favor more tropical disturbances along the Gulf Coast, hopefully none of them will become hurricanes. Even if they do, this was nature's land first before it was ours, and hurricanes are actually beneficial to the natural world despite their destruction of ours. They are sorta like the water version of fires, destructive but necessary.
781. Tygor
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Florida or Texas?


Texas. Seems the pattern is "get an inch, wait several months for another inch".
Not sure it is a good practice to be posting other storms data in the midst of reports from an active system even as minimal as this. Could be confusing to some.
783. srada
Nogaps next week



CMC



GFDL

Quoting Tygor:


Texas. Seems the pattern is "get an inch, wait several months for another inch".

Ugh. They'll need a ton of rain to get back to normal. Unless drought is the new "normal".
Quoting srada:
Nogaps next week



CMC



GFDL



That CMC image is at 36 hours...
Quoting srada:
Nogaps next week



CMC



GFDL



Very possible if we get the GFS and ECMWF onboard with that, we could see another system.
WTNT61 KNHC 292231
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE
A LITTLE STRONGER...


THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS
SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...21.3N 95.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Quoting srada:
Nogaps next week



CMC



GFDL

The models shows that all will be quite.
Quoting aquak9:
all that winkin'...ya'll got something caught in your eye?


Had not laughed out loud (literally) all day till then! Thanks

Feelin awful humid and bubbly in SWFL....if this persists another day we may see something in our area. This left over energy is percolating.
Shen- that's why I put the disclaimer on it...was gonna remove it but it's done been quoted half-a-dozen times.

Won't happen again. :)
791. srada
Quoting MississippiWx:


That CMC image is at 36 hours...


Thanks..I posted the wrong image..the CMC has it farthest off land

Quoting IceCoast:

Haha that is true also. I asked three time last night how the models initiate the intensity of the storm as I saw several of them start Arlene at 1008mb. There was reliable information from a nearby buoy that showed it at least 1005mb's.

If anyone knows the answer or has good information on how data is inserted into the model runs please post or pm me. I am still really curious.


A synthetic vortex is created, called bogusing. It it covered somewhat in this video TC Track Model Guidance used by NHC at about the 18:40 timeframe.
Anyone have a direct link to RECON data?
Quoting MississippiWx:
WTNT61 KNHC 292231
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE
A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS
SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...21.3N 95.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
As the joker said on batman..."And...here...we...GO!."
795. srada
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very possible if we get the GFS and ECMWF onboard with that, we could see another system.


yeah, I think the HWRF is initalizing it too..
Quoting srada:


Thanks..I posted the wrong image..the CMC has it farthest off land



I would be more worried about the SW Caribbean/GOM for development for the next few weeks. We have already had several cold-core lows move off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. That's what the models are showing there again.
Ok this thing about winds being convection induced is really bothering the heck out of me, I am going to school for meteorology but even then its not making sense. Because unlike extratropical(baroclinic lows). Tropical cyclones intensity is directly influenced by core convection. That being said, why is the NHC discounting the wind as convection induced and therefore being thrown out as an official number?

I do not know, maybe its because they are saying those winds were caused by a strong squall in the cyclone but not caused by the low pressure intensity itself. In other words, yes convective activity is cause for intensification of the low pressure core in a tropical cyclone, but in this case the wind is coming directly form a convective burst and not the convection leading to additional intensification of the core winds?

That's my guess. As we know, intense convection bursts in tropical storms can sometimes easily produced 60 to 70 mph wind gusts even if the cyclone only has core sustained winds near 40 mph. Yet until the tropical cyclone gets better organized, that intense convection can't really lead to intensification of the cyclone itself yet until additional organization is achieved.
Good afternoon all.

Arlene has really ramped up since I was on earlier today. I think the National Hurricane Center was a little conservative with 60 mph. In my opinion, this is around 70-75 mph, which is supported by recon.

From the latest vortex fix, it appears that Arlene did perform some sort of a center reformation, though it wasn't really that much of a relocation, because it hasn't really made a net movement since 14z this morning. It was at 95.5W then, and it is still at 95.5W now. It is slightly farther north at 21.3N. What probably happened was the center dived southwestward like we saw on the vortex fixes earlier, and now it has reformed slightly to the northeast. This has given Arlene a few more hours over water with which to strengthen, and it has also gotten the low-level center nearly vertically stacked with the mid-level center. With Arlene no longer being decoupled and having extra time over water, hurricane intensity seems likely to be attained later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Absolutely, a look at the large scale pattern shift appears that a classic pattern is setting up that favors a very active wet season in Florida, one that I have not seen a long while. Also, hopefully that pattern will also lead to heavy rain along the rest of the drought stricken gulf coast, especially Texas.

As you mentioned, this pattern will likely favor more tropical disturbances along the Gulf Coast, hopefully none of them will become hurricanes. Even if they do, this was nature's land first before it was ours, and hurricanes are actually beneficial to the natural world despite their destruction of ours. They are sorta like the water version of fires, destructive but necessary.


+2
So, is the NHC forecasting a hurricane at landfall now, or just playing it safe?
please dont post old vortex messages when there actually is a storm thank you remember a storm the got stuck in the boc about 15 yrs ago
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Arlene has really ramped up since I was on earlier today. I think the National Hurricane Center was a little conservative with 60 mph. In my opinion, this is around 70-75 mph, which is supported by recon.


It will probably magically jump to 70mph at the 7pm update. :-)
Quoting aquak9:
Shen- that's why I put the disclaimer on it...was gonna remove it but it's done been quoted half-a-dozen times.

Won't happen again. :)
Probably wouldn't have said anything if it hadn't got picked up. Know you meant it as a one time funny to Taz but the repetition made it look like it might matter. No Harm No Foul. Just thought I'd say something early in the season.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
So, is the NHC forecasting a hurricane at landfall now, or just playing it safe?


Sorry just saw Levi's post.
Ok this thing about winds being convection induced is really bothering the heck out of me, I am going to school for meteorology but even then its not making sense. Because unlike extratropical(baroclinic lows). Tropical cyclones intensity is directly influenced by core convection. That being said, why is the NHC discounting the wind as convection induced and therefore being thrown out as an official number?

I do not know, maybe its because they are saying those winds were caused by a strong squall in the cyclone but not caused by the low pressure intensity itself. In other words, yes convective activity is cause for intensification of the low pressure core in a tropical cyclone, but in this case the wind is coming directly form a convective burst and not the convection leading to additional intensification of the core winds?

That's my guess. As we know, intense convection bursts in tropical storms can sometimes easily produced 60 to 70 mph wind gusts even if the cyclone only has core sustained winds near 40 mph. Yet until the tropical cyclone gets better organized, that intense convection can't really lead to intensification of the cyclone itself yet until additional organization is achieved.
807. srada
Quoting MississippiWx:


I would be more worried about the SW Caribbean/GOM for development for the next few weeks. We have already had several cold-core lows move off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. That's what the models are showing there again.


the GFS hasnt been consistent with the east coast but it has in previous runs been showing storms off the east coast with lows, In fact it actually showed both the gulf and the east coast having a storm at the same time. Unfortunately, the weather is just going to get worse before getting better, imo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Arlene has really ramped up since I was on earlier today. I think the National Hurricane Center was a little conservative with 60 mph. In my opinion, this is around 70-75 mph, which is supported by recon.

Well, at least they didn't keep it at 50mph :P
So we're more than likely looking at hurricane status later on tonight, huh?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, at least they didn't keep it at 50mph :P


Yes, I am glad they did an Update Statement to put Arlene at 60 mph. Even if she isn't, it is better for them to overestimate a storms intensity rather than underestimate a storms intensity, for the people along the Mexican coastline's sake.
Quoting srada:


the GFS hasnt been consistent with the east coast but it has in previous runs been showing storms off the east coast with lows, In fact it actually showed both the gulf and the east coast having a storm at the same time. Unfortunately, the weather is just going to get worse before getting better, imo


Yeah, but all I'm saying is that just because it shows an area of low pressure, doesn't mean it's warm-core tropical. The one moving off the coast around Virginia/Carolinas is most likely baroclinically induced (cold core).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So we're more than likely looking at hurricane status later on tonight, huh?

yep and for now it has slow down slighty more from 7 mph to 5 mph for a short time


sorry texas, does not look like any moisture from Arlene
arlene will not be a hurricane at land fall....60mph is the highest she could get due to several factors...mexico will get torrential rains though out of this...the only real issue if arlene stalls before moving inland....there is a pretty strong high over the central part of mexico causing the steering currents to become weak...this is not good cause if she does stall and the high weakens over the northern gulf then all bets are off...hopefully arlene will behave and move inland over mexico...
Back after work.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

yep and for now it has slow down slighty more from 7 mph to 5 mph for a short time


That's a difference of a few hours, lets hope it doesn't slow any further, or relocate its center anymore.
I particularly enjoyed reading the part about how Arlene had "slowed down" and that's why she is actually farther to the east than the advisory had at 4pm. We all know Arlene's center reformed farther to the north and east. :-)
except for deep south tx :)
Quoting Levi32:
Back after work.


See ya Levi.
tropic a last vis. look like a eye forming do we have any surprises this season?
Quoting Levi32:
Back after work.

hey levi arlene is now a 60mph tropical storm and what are your thoughts on the tropical wave located near 40W?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Ok this thing about winds being convection induced is really bothering the heck out of me, I am going to school for meteorology but even then its not making sense. Because unlike extratropical(baroclinic lows). Tropical cyclones intensity is directly influenced by core convection. That being said, why is the NHC discounting the wind as convection induced and therefore being thrown out as an official number?

I do not know, maybe its because they are saying those winds were caused by a strong squall in the cyclone but not caused by the low pressure intensity itself. In other words, yes convective activity is cause for intensification of the low pressure core in a tropical cyclone, but in this case the wind is coming directly form a convective burst and not the convection leading to additional intensification of the core winds?

That's my guess. As we know, intense convection bursts in tropical storms can sometimes easily produced 60 to 70 mph wind gusts even if the cyclone only has core sustained winds near 40 mph. Yet until the tropical cyclone gets better organized, that intense convection can't really lead to intensification of the cyclone itself yet until additional organization is achieved.


If you look at the raw data you can see what happened.
From the Vortex message: MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z


Raw data from that timeframe:

202500 2211N 09509W 9666 00298 //// +205 //// 146049 052 044 011 01
202530 2210N 09510W 9668 00293 //// +207 //// 150054 056 043 007 01
202600 2209N 09511W 9665 00299 //// +212 //// 155053 055 043 006 01
202630 2208N 09512W 9662 00302 //// +214 //// 160058 063 048 006 01
202700 2207N 09513W 9667 00296 //// +207 //// 163060 064 048 008 01
202730 2206N 09514W 9666 00297 //// +196 //// 166058 059 051 010 01
202800 2205N 09515W 9665 00294 //// +191 //// 164059 060 058 016 01
202830 2205N 09516W 9660 00302 //// +192 //// 163058 060 065 030 01
202900 2204N 09517W 9665 00297 //// +196 //// 162054 056 067 033 01
202930 2203N 09518W 9661 00303 //// +196 //// 164040 043 062 041 01
203000 2202N 09519W 9673 00296 //// +196 //// 162034 042 060 041 05


First number bolded is flight level, second SFMR. Started out with good coralation between flight and SFMR (SFMR = 80% of flight) it then changed to where SFMR was greater than flight, coincident with the rain rate increasing (next number over).
moisture from Arlene is heading for CA
Quoting islander101010:
tropic a last vis. look like a eye forming do we have any surprises this season?


There doesn't appear to be any eye forming...





Okay pass the crow.I said Arlene will get up to 50mph the highest.Looks like I had underestimated Arlene.
Arlene:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


A synthetic vortex is created, called bogusing. It it covered somewhat in this video TC Track Model Guidance used by NHC at about the 18:40 timeframe.


Thanks for that information, I will have to watch it when I get home from work.

I wasn't aboard the train of Arlene making hurricane status, but she looks vertically stacked now and looks excellent on satellite imagery. The only inhibiting factor now appears to be time. Arlene will likely be our first hurricane of the 2011 season!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Absolutely, a look at the large scale pattern shift appears that a classic pattern is setting up that favors a very active wet season in Florida, one that I have not seen a long while. Also, hopefully that pattern will also lead to heavy rain along the rest of the drought stricken gulf coast, especially Texas.

As you mentioned, this pattern will likely favor more tropical disturbances along the Gulf Coast, hopefully none of them will become hurricanes. Even if they do, this was nature's land first before it was ours, and hurricanes are actually beneficial to the natural world despite their destruction of ours. They are sorta like the water version of fires, destructive but necessary.


Cool! Next time I am inside my attic hands outstretched trying to hold my roof down I'll whistle
cumbya and remember that nature is just replenishing itself ;-)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay pass the crow.I said Arlene will get up to 50mph the highest.Looks like I had underestimated Arlene.




would like like your crow cook or RAW or well done
look at Arlene trying to pull that pacific blob back over to her
825. Tazmanian 3:49 PM PDT on June 29, 2011
moisture from Arlene is heading for CA


woo hoo!!!!

:)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Arlene:


Has the appearance of a strong tropical storm (65-70 mph). We'll probably see this at 11PM, and they'll probably upgrade this to hurricane status when I'm in bed at 2AM. It should make landfall tomorrow morning between 4AM - 12PM.
Deep convection firing over the center
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
look at Arlene trying to pull that pacific blob back over to her


It looks like it's associated with her circulation anyway.

But shhhh, don't mention anything about Pacific blobs. Someone might pop out of lurking and try to claim that it's the dominant area and going to take over Arlene...
837. DEKRE
Quoting Jedkins01:
Ok this thing about winds being convection induced is really bothering the heck out of me


Seems you learned quite a bit since first coming here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Has the appearance of a strong tropical storm (65-70 mph). We'll probably see this at 11PM, and they'll probably upgrade this to hurricane status when I'm in bed at 2AM. It should make landfall tomorrow morning between 4AM - 12PM.

You stole the words right out of my mouth! O_o
Quoting Tazmanian:




would like like your crow cook or RAW or well done
I would like it well done with a side of BBQ sauce and hot mustard.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
high pressure pushing and Arlene pulling at that pacific blob
Quoting Levi32:
From the latest vortex fix, it appears that Arlene did perform some sort of a center reformation, though it wasn't really that much of a relocation, because it hasn't really made a net movement since 14z this morning. It was at 95.5W then, and it is still at 95.5W now. It is slightly farther north at 21.3N. What probably happened was the center dived southwestward like we saw on the vortex fixes earlier, and now it has reformed slightly to the northeast. This has given Arlene a few more hours over water with which to strengthen, and it has also gotten the low-level center nearly vertically stacked with the mid-level center. With Arlene no longer being decoupled and having extra time over water, hurricane intensity seems likely to be attained later tonight or early tomorrow morning.


Agreed, could see 80 mph max at landfall. Wow that would be something, I don't think there's ever been a case where there's been a hurricane in June in two consecutive seasons.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would like it well done with a side of BBQ sauce and hot mustard.

I wonder how crow tastes like.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I wonder how crow tastes like.
It's very hard and chewy.It almost taste like chicken.Sometimes it's even tuff to chew,even when it's moist.
Reaching the circulation again.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Agreed, could see 80 mph max at landfall. Wow that would be something, I don't think there's ever been a case where there's been a hurricane in June in two consecutive seasons.

Teddy! I think arlene will make landfall as 70 or 75mph what do you think of that tropical wave at 40W? should we be concered about it?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Agreed, could see 80 mph max at landfall. Wow that would be something, I don't think there's ever been a case where there's been a hurricane in June in two consecutive seasons.


Just having a look...

If you include June and before, then 1908-1909 would fall into that category. 1908 had a hurricane in March, 1909 in June.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Agreed, could see 80 mph max at landfall. Wow that would be something, I don't think there's ever been a case where there's been a hurricane in June in two consecutive seasons.

If Arlene becomes a hurricane, then it would be the second year in a row where a monsoonal-origin June hurricane whose name starts with "A" makes landfall in eastern Mexico. What a specific record.
Quoting elninosucks:

Teddy! I think arlene will make landfall as 70 or 75mph what do you think of that tropical wave at 40W? should we be concered about it?


I lost track of one of the waves three days ago. If it is the wave I think it is, then definitely. If it is the wave that ASCAT showed three days ago, I believe it may become Bret in the western Caribbean.

why do storms all ways like too bomb out this be for land fall when things are geting fun
Idk, to me this looks like a low end-mid cat1.
Quoting Cotillion:


Just having a look...

If you include June and before, then 1908-1909 would fall into that category. 1908 had a hurricane in March, 1909 in June.


Yea but I'm talking about both years in June. That 1908 storm was in March as you said.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I lost track of one of the waves two days ago. If it is the wave I think it is, then definitely. If it is the wave that ASCAT showed two days, I believe it may become Bret in the western Caribbean.


hmm well we will see if its the western carribean.. once it enters the easten carribean we will see what it looks like. im like 2011 atlantic hurricane season so far. :D
Quoting MississippiWx:


It looks like it's associated with her circulation anyway.

But shhhh, don't mention anything about Pacific blobs. Someone might pop out of lurking and try to claim that it's the dominant area and going to take over Arlene...
lol........i forgot, btw plane almost back to that 996mb reading location, are we going to see a new coc?
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do storms all ways like too bomb out this be for land fall when things are geting fun


Umm Mountains.. Rocks... Trees.. Landscape... People... all those things that interrupt good circulation.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Defentally an organizing storm.

Quoting Tazmanian:
why do storms all ways like too bomb out this be for land fall when things are geting fun
be cause storms are re ally mean things thet like to party poop all the time
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE
A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS
SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Idk, to me this looks like a low end-mid cat1.


Looks more like a strong tropical storm to me, need to see that strong convection on the southern side of the circulation wrap around. That would speed up its eyewall process some, and allow for intensification into a hurricane.

i wounder if this has time too get too 100mph be for wind fall
862. amd
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
lol........i forgot, btw plane almost back to that 996mb reading location, are we going to see a new coc?


it looks like that the center keeps on shifting to the ne as the mid-levels and the low-levels of arlene finally align. Earlier this morning, the mid-level circulation of arlene was northeast of the llc, hence why the ne side was weaker earlier in the day.
teddy you wont see arlene become a hurricane before reaching mexico...to many factors against her...the high pressure which is blocking arlene in central mexico will have a big factor if arlene completely stalls or continues a west or wnw course into mexico...the high currently protecting arlene from moving north is starting to weaken..arlene has to to move into mexico before this happens because if she dont it will allow her to come more north..i will be watching arlene closely for the next 36 hours..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea but I'm talking about both years in June. That 1908 storm was in March as you said.


Yep. Let's see

1858-1859 probably did if the records are reliable (if is a big word). 1858 had a late June hurricane, 1859 had a hurricane on the 1st of July making landfall in Mexico, though it has no other confirmation of its existence or track. If it did exist, it's likely to have been a hurricane the day before as well.

1888 and 1889 both had a June hurricane.

(Keeps lookin'..)
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if this has time too get too 100mph be for wind fall


Very unlikely. It is going to make landfall tomorrow morning, and to strengthen that much, it'd have to have a sturdy eyewall for rapid intensification, which it currently doesn't have. 75//80 mph seems a lot more likely at this point.
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do storms all ways like too bomb out this be for land fall when things are geting fun


i think it is usually hitting cooler water near coastline or dry air intrusion from the west ive seen on a few hurricanes.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I wonder how crow tastes like.


Taste like Chicken
Looks like the circulation is moving towards the WNW/NW.

Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if this has time too get too 100mph be for wind fall
It does not have time to become a 100mph hurricane be fore Wind FALL also i think if it does max out that would be at 80-85mph
Quoting Cotillion:


Yep. Let's see

1858-1859 probably did if the records are reliable (if is a big word). 1858 had a late June hurricane, 1859 had a hurricane on the 1st of July making landfall in Mexico, though it has no other confirmation of its existence or track. If it did exist, it's likely to have been a hurricane the day before as well.

1888 and 1889 both had a June hurricane.

(Keeps lookin'..)


1994/1995 didn't have June hurricanes, but one was a weak Cat. 1 and the other was a strong TS.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

yep and for now it has slow down slighty more from 7 mph to 5 mph for a short time


Well Arlene has hit the expected strength I have been expecting the entire time. Now it looks like she will become a hurricane. Also, she suddenly is slowing down. She was moving 8 MPH and then 7 MPH and now 5 MPH. That could because she is running into land but I believe it is time to start wondering if Arlene will stall or veer off course. The NGFDL and GFDL and now even the NOGAPS has been showing the storm brushing the coast before moving southward and back into the Bay of Campeche.
This certainly has become an impressive storm in the last 24 hours. A sheared barely TS to a near hurricane.


Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


sorry texas, does not look like any moisture from Arlene
Texas will not see a Huge change until that Stinking High Pressure moves which usually happens in September or October. Why does High Pressure Love Texas so much? Put this Dry Hot High Pressure System over the Midwest for 6 months so they can dry out. :) Wish it was that easy. But if someone has some positive news that Texas could even get a change let me know but for the past 9 months High Pressure has dominated 80 percent of this state and kept it mostly bone dry. Local Weathermen are saying high pressure has and should control our weather, they are gun shy about even putting a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Alot of the time they will forecast 99 even though it is 105.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE
A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS
SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.



a center relocation caused the storm to slowdown as opposed to relocate?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very unlikely. It is going to make landfall tomorrow morning, and to strengthen that much, it'd have to have a sturdy eyewall for rapid intensification, which it currently doesn't have. 75//80 mph seems a lot more likely at this point.
I notice that if Arlene gets up to hurricane status both the Atlantic and Pacific will both have a hurricane for their first named storms.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very unlikely. It is going to make landfall tomorrow morning, and to strengthen that much, it'd have to have a sturdy eyewall for rapid intensification, which it currently doesn't have. 75//80 mph seems a lot more likely at this point.


ok
Quoting emcf30:


Taste like Chicken

KFC
Kentucky's Fried Crow
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This certainly has become an impressive storm in the last 24 hours. A sheared barely TS to a near hurricane.




SSTs were definitely there to support it. In that regard, I think we could easily see an above-active July just based on SSTs. The Gulf coast never had a "spring" this year, just lots of sun...
Quoting cloudburst2011:
teddy you wont see arlene become a hurricane before reaching mexico...to many factors against her...the high pressure which is blocking arlene in central mexico will have a big factor if arlene completely stalls or continues a west or wnw course into mexico...the high currently protecting arlene from moving north is starting to weaken..arlene has to to move into mexico before this happens because if she dont it will allow her to come more north..i will be watching arlene closely for the next 36 hours..


First you said it would never develop; then you said it would never get past a depresseion; then you said it wouldnt be more than a weak TS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1994/1995 didn't have June hurricanes, but one was a weak Cat. 1 and the other was a strong TS.


I thought Alberto in 1994 became a named storm on July 1?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the circulation is moving towards the WNW/NW.


Really? Pokes the crow I am suppose to eat because I predicted the storm to hit near Tampico.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


First you said it would never develop; then you said it would never get past a depresseion; then you said it wouldnt be more than a weak TS.

lol I'm guessing Arlene intensified just to prove him wrong.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


First you said it would never develop; then you said it would never get past a depresseion; then you said it wouldnt be more than a weak TS.

looks like he owes 3 orders of crow
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

KFC
Kentucky's Fried Crow
Yes!.And it's DANGEROUSLY Dilicious.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I thought Alberto in 1994 became a named storm on July 1?


It did, but it became a TD on June 30.
887. j2008
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol I'm guessing Arlene intensified just to prove him wrong.

She will probably do it again and get to 80. Just to prove him wrong.
Quoting j2008:

She will probably do it again and get to 80. Just to prove him wrong.
I was proven wrong.Me and Arlene have a secret beef with each other.She makes me cringe.
HELLO????
Moved towards the NNW since the last vortex fix.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.And it's DANGEROUSLY Dilicious.

lol
000
URNT12 KNHC 292320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W

C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
;
Quoting Cotillion:


Yep. Let's see

1858-1859 probably did if the records are reliable (if is a big word). 1858 had a late June hurricane, 1859 had a hurricane on the 1st of July making landfall in Mexico, though it has no other confirmation of its existence or track. If it did exist, it's likely to have been a hurricane the day before as well.

1888 and 1889 both had a June hurricane.

(Keeps lookin'..)


1933 and 1934 also both had June hurricanes.

That's the only other example.

So, not for a very, very long time.
Quoting shadoclown45:
HELLO????


hi
Quoting shadoclown45:
HELLO????
Yes?
896. srada
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but all I'm saying is that just because it shows an area of low pressure, doesn't mean it's warm-core tropical. The one moving off the coast around Virginia/Carolinas is most likely baroclinically induced (cold core).


the Mesocyclones that moved off in the northeast and traveled down to florida early this season was just a bunch of thunderstorms that people said was nothing when organizing and look what happened, it became an invest..hey long as it is bringing a lot of rains for the wildfires we are currently having here in eastern nc, it can be luke warm-core for all I care:)
I have a question! when will the Texas ridge weaken? like in a week 2 weeks a month in 5 days? anyone?
898. amd
in the latest recon observations, they have climbed back to the 700 mb level. I am not sure if they are going to do measurements at that level, or if recon is leaving the storm.
899. P451
Evening.

72HRs Arlene:

I though everyone was ignoring me thanks VA i <3 you also.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


First you said it would never develop; then you said it would never get past a depresseion; then you said it wouldnt be more than a weak TS.


Its just seasonbust2011, stormkat from last year. Just ignore him.
Is that an...?

Quoting shadoclown45:
I though everyone was ignoring me thanks VA i <3 you also.


<3
Quoting amd:
in the latest recon observations, they have climbed back to the 700 mb level. I am not sure if they are going to do measurements at that level, or if recon is leaving the storm.
Probably leaving.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its just seasonbust2011, stormkat from last year. Just ignore him.
Who the hell is Stormkat,trap,rat or what ever....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that an...?



Tropical storm? yes
crow is good you can boil it, broil it, saute it. There's baked crow, fried crow, crow ka bobs, crow soup, crow stew, crow n potato's, crow gumbo, pineapple crow, that's that's about it.
40 west wow!!
Where does recon have the center at?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that an...?


oh no we have to sayyyy ittt.....Pin whole eye!!!!!
the high is expected to weaken in the next 36 hours....this is one of the reasons why the steering currents are becoming weak around arlene and she is slowing down...there is a huge high over central mexico also that is blocking arlene from moving inland...something for us to watch very closely for the next 36 hours...everyone around the texas coast should watch arlene very closely...
Quoting P451:
Evening.

72HRs Arlene:



Arlene just ate that other real storm on the pacific side lolololololololol shes a beasty pig.....lolol..good video of her eating epac storm 3 ...lol

Quoting washingtonian115:

oh no we have to sayyyy ittt.....Pin whole eye!!!!!
I see it *gasps in horror*
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that an...?



Just an overshooting cloudtop.
No more Recon missions until 12z?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Just an overshooting cloudtop.


But look at post 912.
918. P451
2133Z:



Really lacking in the NW quadrant at the time of that pass.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 23:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°45'N 95°50'W (21.75N 95.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 miles (215 km) to the ESE (104°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 178° at 56kts (From the S at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 392m (1,286ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 15 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 20:26:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

Looks like new center NNW of the previous one?
look like a tropical storm to me!!
Arlene isn't even close to developing an eye.

922. amd
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably leaving.


yep, they have now climbed up to the 400mb level. I was hoping that they would make one more run in the NE or N quadrant of the storm to see if those 64 kt filght winds or 67 kts surface winds were truly legit.
Quoting shadoclown45:

I see it *gasps in horror*
(Puts forearm over eye puts palm in front of sreen).I can't see with her brilliant pin whole eye.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
the high is expected to weaken in the next 36 hours....this is one of the reasons why the steering currents are becoming weak around arlene and she is slowing down...there is a huge high over central mexico also that is blocking arlene from moving inland...something for us to watch very closely for the next 36 hours...everyone around the texas coast should watch arlene very closely...


I like this wish huh umm sorry i mean forecast lol. really I'm just joking. I'm a layman and don't know much but I've been thinking pretty close to the same thing you are saying. I just didn't want to say it because I like I said I am a layman but I really want to learn.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that an...?

an what??
arlene has an eye? post a picture guys!
Quoting TomTaylor:
an what??


Kind of looks like an eye between 95-96W and 21-22N, but probably isn't.

Based on the latest microwave imagery Arlene is not that well organized as thought. I still wouldn't be surprised if she hits minimal cane. The inner core has a lot of work to do overnight.
Why have there been so many storms that go from nothing to impressive in a day lately...
Quoting jasonweather11:
40 west wow!!
i need to watch that tropical wave at 37 west!!
do you mean even Gov Rick Perry renting a stadium and all them people praying for rain didnt work?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Kind of looks like an eye between 95-96W and 21-22N, but probably isn't.


It looks like one. But it's probably not.
guessing its inbetweeen the two bright balls of convection
but the storm is gonna buttonhook north and slam into texas?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It looks like one. But it's probably not.


That is what I just said :P
notice in a couple days the nhc is speeding her up west
Good evening everyone.

000
URNT12 KNHC 292331 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

;

Exactly what I've been saying all day has kept Arlene to only slow, gradual strengthening.

That also answers Jed's question from earlier. Thunderstorm gusts well removed from the center don't really count. It's the same as land-based thunderstorms in the lower 48. You might get TS-force winds, but does that truly reflect the pressure gradient from the low pressure area spawning those storms? Usually no.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That is what I just said :P

There wasn't anything else to say about it. By the time I thought about it, I already had posted it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Kind of looks like an eye between 95-96W and 21-22N, but probably isn't.

well it's not one yet. That may be one could be trying to form, but I doubt it.
Upwelling could be a problem for Arlene if she continues to slow and drift around. Water temps are high...but heat content is very low in that area.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Arlene isn't even close to developing an eye.



Only half a core.
Are there any miracle workers out there who want to run for president and know how to make it rain and at the same time reduce all federal and state budget defecits? while at the same time having enough monies to fund the NHC and NWS and other life saving governmental agencies?
Quoting robert88:
Upwelling could be a problem for Arlene if she continues to slow and drift around. Water temps are high...but heat content is very low in that area.


Nah, she is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning. Should cause little, if any, upwelling in that area.
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...

7:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 29
Location: 21.4°N 95.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 4 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
could be wrong but to my eye Arlene seems to be drifting more NNW at the momenthttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis .html
Quoting robert88:
Upwelling could be a problem for Arlene if she continues to slow and drift around. Water temps are high...but heat content is very low in that area.
she will only be over water for another 12-15 or so hours, so upwelling shouldn't be much of an issue.
West at 4mph isn't that fast, though it will likely get faster.

Given the center's recent relocation, landfall is likely to be closer to Tampico, instead of south of it like the forecast track was earlier.
Quoting TomTaylor:
well it's not one yet. That may be one could be trying to form, but I doubt it.


HH found like a 40 mile center with like less than 10mph wind, maybe thats what it is?
((cloudburst2011))
Quoting stormpetrol:
could be wrong but to my eye Arlene seems to be drifting more NNW at the momenthttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis .html


Still looks WNW to me. The last two recon vortex messages had it moving NW between the two, but I think that is just residual rotation of this new center location around where the old one used to be. The overall motion should still be WNW I think.
Quoting Levi32:


Still looks WNW to me. The last two recon vortex messages had it moving NW between the two, but I think that is just residual rotation of this new center location around where the old one used to be. The overall motion should still be WNW I think.


i thought the last advisory was west at 5 mph, and now its going wnw or nw?
So next Recon into Arlene is tomorrow morning (12z)?
I have to say the GFS did an outstanding job sniffing out Arlene...considering all the energy that was bundled down there. The ECMWF has been playing catch up.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


i thought the last advisory was west at 5 mph, and now its going wnw or nw?


It has clearly gained latitude, confirmed by vortex messages over the last several hours. The NHC will do some strange things with 12-hour average motions sometimes. I don't remember exactly how they do it, but long averages can keep the direction from changing suddenly.
Hey folks,Dr Masters has a new blog!!
we have updates,advisorys,hh updates,vortex updates, center relocations, its all so confusing.........lol
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening everyone.

000
URNT12 KNHC 292331 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

;

Exactly what I've been saying all day has kept Arlene to only slow, gradual strengthening.

That also answers Jed's question from earlier. Thunderstorm gusts well removed from the center don't really count. It's the same as land-based thunderstorms in the lower 48. You might get TS-force winds, but does that truly reflect the pressure gradient from the low pressure area spawning those storms? Usually no.
interesting to see such a large area of calm winds
Quoting TomTaylor:
interesting to see such a large area of calm winds


Monsoonal depressions will do that sometimes.
POSS T.C.F.A.
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/95.86W


Mad Face...
Is there a new blog?
NEW BLOG