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Tropical Storm Andres Forms in the Northeast Pacific; Not a Threat to Mexico

By: Jeff Masters 2:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2015

The Northeast Pacific's first named storm of 2015 is here. Tropical Storm Andres formed at 11 am EDT on Thursday, in the waters about 690 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The first named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season usually forms by June 10, so we are nearly two weeks ahead of climatology. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management, the formation of a tropical storm in May in the Eastern Pacific is not uncommon, though--33 named storms have formed in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are unusually warm in the region, at least 2°F (1.1°C) above average, thanks in large part to the intensifying El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific. Andres will likely be able to take advantage of these warm waters and become a hurricane this weekend, but the storm will stay well out to sea and not affect any land areas for at least the next five days.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Andres.


Figure 2. Tracks of all May tropical storms and hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean according to the database maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management. Accurate records of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones began in 1970. The 2015 version of Tropical Storm Andres formed in a typical location for a May tropical storm.

NOAA predicts an above-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 18.5 named storms
Andres is the first salvo in what is likely to be a very busy Northeast Pacific hurricane season. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 110% - 190% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 150% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.


Guest forecaster at the NHC: President Obama
Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed an unexpected name at the bottom of this morning's NHC discussion of Tropical Storm Andres. Signing the forecast discussion, along with forecaster Dan Brown, was President Barack Obama. The president visited NHC this morning to receive the annual presidential briefing on the upcoming hurricane season. This was the first time Obama was onsite at NHC for the briefing. Pictured at right: NHC director Rick Knabb, President Obama, NHC/TAFB chief Hugh Cobb, Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, and NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Big time warming occurring across Nino 3.4. TAO just updated and its very impressive as 1.5C anomalies are beginning to encompass Nino 3.4.



Also a second warm pool is gathering very fast beneath Nino 3.4

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INSTABILITY. CANNOT
JUSTIFY ADDING/INCREASING POPS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR IF THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERCOME ANY DIURNAL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY SAW A
MINOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINE BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING THAT TODAY.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER TODAY OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY
COASTLINE UP TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST. WILL SIDE WITH LOCAL WRF
AND SHOW ONLY A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW OVER POWERS SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE... NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

Anyone caught this?
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)


Serious Injuries Reported After Tornado Hits Texas Drilling Rig



A tornado touched down in northwestern Texas Wednesday, damaging a gas drilling rig and resulting in serious injuries, the Hemphill County Sheriff's Office and a hospital official said.

The number and severity of the injuries after the twister touched down north of Canadian was not immediately released. The National Weather Service confirmed the tornado at 5:20 p.m. local time and warned people to take shelter.

Hemphill County Hospital Chief Executive Christi Francis said three patients with serious injuries from the tornado are being treated at the facility, but could not say if they were hurt at the gas rig or somewhere else.


The tornado north of Canadian, Texas, a town of about 2,600 people in the northeast corner of the Panhandle, comes as other parts of the state have been hammered by heavy rains that have killed at least 14 people in central and southeastern parts of the state, including Houston.

RELATED: Death Toll Rises in Texas as More Bodies Identified After Storms

The National Weather Service said thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle are possible Wednesday night, with the potential for damaging hail and winds.

More rain fell Wednesday on Houston, where six people died in flooding after weekend storms, but the National Weather Service the chance for more thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday morning remains low.

The deaths of seven people in Oklahoma have been blamed on severe weather since Friday, authorities have said. One of those deaths was caused by a tornado that struck Bryan County on Monday, officials said.


No dry air whatsoever..
Quoting 5. MaxWeather:

Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

Anyone caught this?


Maybe he's visiting the NHC?
Quoting 10. Drakoen:


Maybe he's visiting the NHC?


Yes he's in Miami at the NHC.
Since it was asked the other day what "climate enthusiasts" had to say in regards to the Texas/Oklahoma flooding, here is an interesting post from Michael Wehner, computational climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley and co-author of the 2nd and 3rd National Climate Assessments:

"Causality is a tricky question. And open to interpretation. Climate change has increased the chances of crossing some thresholds. Another way of stating the same thing is that for many events (like a heatwave. a rainfall amount, a storm surge, etc.), climate change has caused the event to go from "normal" to "extreme" based on those thresholds. I fear that as a community, we have very severely understated the present dangers. To say nothing of the future. (P.S, The chances of the 2011 Texas drought were at least doubled by human climate change. The current floods are more severe by at least 6% per degree warming than it would have been in a preindustrial climate. More if convective precipitation is a significant fraction of the total rainfall. Not sure what the human contribution to summer Texas warming is, but I would guess 1-2C.)" Source

The idea that climate change has caused what would have been "normal" events to now be "extreme" events is a big key in looking at these events are being effected by a warmer world. It's not to say climate change has directly caused the flooding, its to say climate change has made the flooding more likely to occur based on causal changes to the parameters that allow for such an event.
Quoting 5. MaxWeather:

Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

Anyone caught this?
Quoting 6. Tazmanian:

WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)



Flagged

whats wrong with you guys you should get a 24hr ban for this

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


""NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown""
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 281418
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 13. wunderkidcayman:



Flagged

whats wrong with you guys you should get a 24hr ban for this

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


""NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown""
Why?

and here we go.......come on storms.....not to harm opr hurt...but drag that moisture up to the southwest......we'll welcome the rain...........the train...she's a rollin./....well......maybe we can't call it a train yet...but i'm allowed some wishful thinking


Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Maybe he's visiting the NHC?
Quoting 11. rmbjoe1954:



Yes he's in Miami at the NHC.


what really?
I didn't see any such thing
where you get that POTUS is at NHC
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:


what really?
I didn't see any such thing
where you get that POTUS is at NHC



Just google it. Geeeez.
Quoting 15. Neapolitan:

Why?




oh Darn?!?!?!??

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT

well I guess I owe Taz and Max an apology
India Heatwave Death toll now approaching 1500. Link

sheesh............let me help you kid...calm down....maybe a self imposed timeout to get yourself under control....it works for me



Obama guidance, press schedule May 28, 2015. National Hurricane Center
Posted: 05/28/2015, 04:13am | Lynn Sweet
Below, from the White House…

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


May 27, 2015
Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Maybe he's visiting the NHC?


Yes Cody just told me...
Quoting 12. Naga5000:

The idea that climate change has caused what would have been "normal" events to now be "extreme" events is a big key in looking at these events are being effected by a warmer world. It's not to say climate change has directly caused the flooding, its to say climate change has made the flooding more likely to occur based on causal changes to the parameters that allow for such an event.



Problem is, this has happened before in the Hill Country in a May/June timeframe, as anyone familiar with the history of flooding in that region knows:

THE TEXAS FLOOD OF 1935
Quoting 21. ricderr:
sheesh............let me help you kid...calm down....maybe a self imposed timeout to get yourself under control....it works for me



Obama guidance, press schedule May 28, 2015. National Hurricane Center
Posted: 05/28/2015, 04:13am | Lynn Sweet
Below, from the White House%u2026

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


May 27, 2015
No wonder he's so excitable about a hurricane then...
someone still in those "feelings"

anyhoo..

12z is still running

06z



SAL, please don't come back!!
Quoting 23. AGWcreationists:



Problem is, this has happened before in the Hill Country in a May/June timeframe, as anyone familiar with the history of flooding in that region knows:

THE TEXAS FLOOD OF 1935


Sorry, I didn't realize making events more likely, meant unprecedented. Nowhere in my summary of the statement, nor in the initial statement did it say anything about that. However, it that is the metric you wish to confuse the statement by, feel free to check the record for most rain in Texas for a month: Texas broke a record for rain this month, and rain remains in the forecast for the much of the state until June, the state climatologist said Wednesday.

An average of 7.54 inches already has fallen over the state in May, breaking the previous record of 6.66 inches set in June 2004, according to state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.
or "Many cities have already clinched a top five wettest May in their weather records. At least six locations, including Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City and Corpus Christi, have now recorded their wettest May (or month) on record. " or even "Houston Intercontinental Airport smashed its all-time record for most rainfall in one day on Monday — its 4.34 inches almost doubling the previous milestone set in 1946."

Anything else?
Quoting 23. AGWcreationists:


Problem is, this has happened before in the Hill Country in a May/June timeframe, as anyone familiar with the history of flooding in that region knows:

THE TEXAS FLOOD OF 1935
I think the concept is (and it's still a concept) that if you crash into a pole head on at 70 mph, it's going to bad. If you do it at 100 mph, it's going to be even worse. What's still to be worked out is if you're really crashing into that pole at 75 or 100, but it's pretty likely it's not just 70 now.
Quoting 27. Naga5000:



Sorry, I didn't realize making events more likely, meant unprecedented. Nowhere in my summary of the statement, nor in the initial statement did it say anything about that. However, it that is the metric you wish to confuse the statement by, feel free to check the record for most rain in Texas for a month: Texas broke a record for rain this month, and rain remains in the forecast for the much of the state until June, the state climatologist said Wednesday.

An average of 7.54 inches already has fallen over the state in May, breaking the previous record of 6.66 inches set in June 2004, according to state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.
or "Many cities have already clinched a top five wettest May in their weather records. At least six locations, including Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City and Corpus Christi, have now recorded their wettest May (or month) on record. " or even "Houston Intercontinental Airport smashed its all-time record for most rainfall in one day on Monday — its 4.34 inches almost doubling the previous milestone set in 1946."

Anything else?
I've lived in both Houston and Austin. Torrential rains are nothing new. I've also lived in Oklahoma and floods from prolonged May rain events happened when I lived there as well. A bigger flood causal issue to me is how urbanized the Austin watersheds have become, all the way up to Georgetown.
Quoting 29. AGWcreationists:

I've lived in both Houston and Austin. Torrential rains are nothing new. I've also lived in Oklahoma and floods from prolonged May rain events happened when I lived there as well. A bigger flood causal issue to me is how urbanized the Austin watersheds have become, all the way up to Georgetown.


Still absolutely irrelevant to my post and response.
No wonder he's so excitable about a hurricane then...


actually.....you want to talk about excited....if by some chance we get this long range solution to verify...you know some headlines will shout....OBAMA TO BLAME FOR HURRICANE
“Texas Climate News sought out the state’s finest climatologists, oceanographers and public-policy experts. If nothing else, their responses make clear that the Lone Star State is headed for a new normal. Pretending it isn’t happening is not a viable option.” {Dallas Observer, 14 October 2013}

“Fear in a Handful Of Dust” by Ted Genoways, The New Republic: “Climate change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. … environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought” — a temporary weather pattern — was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. … ‘If climate change is the real deal then the human race as we know it is over’.”

Link

Desertification....SMH
Too funny on that last NHC discussion. Andres looks real good, well on its way to hurricane status.

Quoting 28. sar2401:

I think the concept is (and it's still a concept) that if you crash into a pole head on at 70 mph, it's going to bad. If you do it at 100 mph, it's going to be even worse. What's still to be worked out is if you're really crashing into that pole at 75 or 100, but it's pretty likely it's not just 70 now.


Bingo, unfortunately this concept seems to be difficult to grasp for many here. The baseline parameters have changed, therefore, any outcome will be at least partially influenced by whatever caused the parameters to change. Simple.
This is interesting that my Spanish version of my name has formed.
Quoting 35. HurricaneAndre:

This is interesting that my Spanish version of my name has formed.


Myself, in the Atlantic, Have one of my childrens Names, and the wife's following it.
Quoting 29. AGWcreationists:
I've lived in both Houston and Austin. Torrential rains are nothing new. I've also lived in Oklahoma and floods from prolonged May rain events happened when I lived there as well. A bigger flood causal issue to me is how urbanized the Austin watersheds have become, all the way up to Georgetown.
There's no doubt more roofs and parking lots make any flash flood worse. Texas metro areas, like most in the country, would do far better with more pasture land than a housing development, but pasture land doesn't pay very much taxes. Saturated soils also make flooding worse. The way I see it though is, with a warmer atmosphere that can hold more water vapr, the floods are worse than what they would have been before the pretty rapid warming we've seen over the last 25 years or so. How much worse, I don't know, but at least a little worse seems to make sense.
Quoting 30. Naga5000:



Still absolutely irrelevant to my post and response.

Not really. Your original post brought up flooding. Extensive urbanization does influence flood response. Per the original post, climate change could influence the degree of precipitation (6+ %/degree of warming). In all likelihood, both agw/cc & urbanization may well have played a part.
Quoting 36. Patrap:



Myself, in the Atlantic, Have one of my childrens Names, and the wife's following it.
So Pat what is your real name. Just wondering.
Quoting 39. LAbonbon:


Not really. Your original post brought up flooding. Extensive urbanization does influence flood response. Per the original post, climate change could influence the degree of precipitation (6 %/degree of warming). In all likelihood, both agw/cc & urbanization may well have played a part.


Sure, but my post had direct reference to rainfall as the main factor. AGW countered with a move of the goalposts in the first response using "Its happened before" and then moved the goal posts again by continuing to ignore my post and response and bring up land use. Really, goal post movers are better off just having conversations with themselves, he certainly never challenged my statement.
Quoting 40. HurricaneAndre:

So Pat what is your real name. Just wondering.



U can call me, Al
Quoting 32. yoboi:
“Texas Climate News sought out the state’s finest climatologists, oceanographers and public-policy experts. If nothing else, their responses make clear that the Lone Star State is headed for a new normal. Pretending it isn’t happening is not a viable option.” {Dallas Observer, 14 October 2013}

“Fear in a Handful Of Dust” by Ted Genoways, The New Republic: “Climate change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. … environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought” — a temporary weather pattern — was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. … ‘If climate change is the real deal then the human race as we know it is over’.”

Link

Desertification....SMH


While there has been a major improvement in the drought in Texas there are still areas in drought. I'm not a big fan of arm flapping over any single weather event but it's likely that, over time, drought will get worse in states like Texas, just like we'll see worse floods. Climate change now is seen in these outlier events. Within the time of our grandchildren, I suspect it will be seen a lot more affecting even non-outlier weather.

Quoting 33. MAweatherboy1:

Too funny on that last NHC discussion. Andres looks real good, well on its way to hurricane status.



I'm impressed by how quickly it is organizing. This should have no trouble becoming a hurricane by this time tomorrow and eventually a major hurricane. My first forecast is for a 110kt peak.
Quoting 32. yoboi:

“Texas Climate News sought out the state’s finest climatologists, oceanographers and public-policy experts. If nothing else, their responses make clear that the Lone Star State is headed for a new normal. Pretending it isn’t happening is not a viable option.” {Dallas Observer, 14 October 2013}

“Fear in a Handful Of Dust” by Ted Genoways, The New Republic: “Climate change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. … environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought” — a temporary weather pattern — was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. … ‘If climate change is the real deal then the human race as we know it is over’.”

Link

Desertification....SMH


Except the biased article never states who said desertification, it certainly wasn't the scientists and was most likely was just made up given the source. You guys will belive anything but the science. Hilarious.
Quoting 31. ricderr:
No wonder he's so excitable about a hurricane then...


actually.....you want to talk about excited....if by some chance we get this long range solution to verify...you know some headlines will shout....OBAMA TO BLAME FOR HURRICANE
I think he's more like that guy in grad school that kept pestering you to be a co-author on your paper. :-)
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Big time warming occurring across Nino 3.4. TAO just updated and its very impressive as 1.5C anomalies are beginning to encompass Nino 3.4.



Also a second warm pool is gathering very fast beneath Nino 3.4


Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
EP012015 - Tropical Storm ONE

From the New York Times (don't know if this was already posted):

Scientists Warn to Expect More Weather Extremes

Well worth a read through, as it discusses the recent rains, urbanization, and the influence of long-term weather phenomena on Texas weather.

(Thanks, Naga, for the Hayhoe FB link, as it led me to the Times piece)


12Z GFS
Quoting 45. Naga5000:


Except the biased article never states who said desertification, it certainly wasn't the scientists and was most likely was just made up given the source. You guys will belive anything but the science. Hilarious.
Why sure it does - "environmental activists and reporters". Not only that, but they just "asked" if desertification was the right term. I never saw an answer from a climate scientist. Really, the way the media phrases things is pretty sleazy sometimes. If you mention "desertification" often enough in news articles, the weak minded start thinking someone with actual knowledge said it too.
Quoting 23. AGWcreationists:



Problem is, this has happened before in the Hill Country in a May/June timeframe, as anyone familiar with the history of flooding in that region knows:

THE TEXAS FLOOD OF 1935

What a fantastic webpage. I love reading about historical events (floods, in particular). Great photos as well.

If anyone knows of additional sites like this one where historical accounts are given of major flood/storm events, I'd love to see them!
Thanks dok.
Ex-Invest 91E looks pretty good now:

Quoting 19. wunderkidcayman:



oh Darn?!?!?!??

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT

well I guess I owe Taz and Max an apology


OBAMA WROTE THIS DISCUSSION?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting 55. Zivipotty:

Ex-Invest 91E looks pretty good now:




It could be a Tropical Depression.
He is. Heard on NPR this morning.

Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Maybe he's visiting the NHC?
Quoting 5. MaxWeather:

Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

Anyone caught this?


No way.
Quoting 58. HaoleboySurfEC:

He is. Heard on NPR this morning.




Oh. So maybe he did write it.
Quoting 29. AGWcreationists:

Torrential rains are nothing new.
True. And no body said they were.
Quoting 29. AGWcreationists:

I've also lived in Oklahoma and floods from prolonged May rain events happened when I lived there as well..
Also true. And, again, nobody said they didn't.
Quoting 29. AGWcreationists:

A bigger flood causal issue to me is how urbanized the Austin watersheds have become, all the way up to Georgetown.
Watershed urbanization is certainly a factor in increased urban flooding; no one has denied that.

However...

It's important to remember that more rain is more rain, period. And there has been more rain as of late; that is an empirically-provable fact, as has been demonstrated here and elsewhere any number of times.

For decades now, climate scientists have been telling us that an increasingly warm world will lead to a more energetic atmosphere, and that more energetic atmosphere would lead to extreme weather events of all types increasing in both frequency and duration. That is, by any honest account, precisely what's happening now, as most scientists will tell you. But it's a humorous and curious part of human nature that so many are falling all over each other to explain away all the crazy records and extremes as coincidence, or happenstance, or observational artifact and error, or a lack of historical accuracy, or evidence of wrongdoing by scientists, or HAARP/chemtrails, or a byproduct of urbanization, or any of a thousand other things, all in an effort to avoid calling it what it is: part of the ugly corner into which we've painted ourselves thanks to out abiding addiction to digging up and burning fossil fuels.
Here is a good paper (2014) from Dr. Wang and colleagues on the world wide impacts of an El Nino breaking down the observed localized wet-dry patterns that we see in various countries-regions. A very good reference paper to keep handy in 2015 as we get reports in from around the world this year on weather events; it explains a lot of the issues and patterns being discussed on the Blog today.

Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Global Land Dry Wet Changes

From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for May 28, 2015:

Flooding on the Arkansas River



May 2015 has brought record to near-record rainfall in much of the deep southern United States. That water has filled lakes, streams, and rivers to the brim, and several have flooded, leading to property losses and evacuations in Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. At least eight people have died and twelve have been reported missing, according to news reports. Read more (includes a side-by-side Image Comparison Tool for May 2013 and May 2015)

excerpt:

Rain and flood conditions have been as bad or worse in much of Oklahoma and Texas, but persistent cloud cover has prevented a clear satellite view since early May. Meteorologists are beginning to see connections between the rain in southern North America and the developing El Niño in the eastern Pacific.

“I do think there is a connection,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “The subtropical jet stream has shifted north and is feeding the Texas and Mexico flooding. The expanding warm waters in the eastern tropical Pacific appear to have energized the hydrologic cycle across the southern United States. What we know for sure is that this was an extreme, punishing deluge, even for flood-prone Texas, and emergency preparedness agencies should remain on high alert.”


as a fan of el nino....anyone notice a few of the graphs that have been missing lately.........

hmmmmmmmm....i wonder why.....let's take a look at two of them.......first......let's look at the CFSV2...it was on blog page after blog page last month........with jaw dropping enso values that were off the chart..........let's look at it today...



WOWEEE....in three weeks it's dropped it's median high...by over 35 percent...that's half a degree folks......and if you use one bloggers numbers that it's 1 degree high....well....that would equate 1.5 at it's high value and it wouldn't last long enough for this el nino to be classified as strong.......now if you look at last year...and see that during this time when conditions are similar to last year....well....the cfsv2 was off by 55 percent...which if true for this year....we would also not see a strong event

does it mean anything......i don't know...but it makes you go hmmmmmmmmm





Speaking of the NHC, this was posted on their Twitter feed a short while ago:







Quite an improvement, wouldn't you say? Not perfect--but most definitely better...
Quoting 20. Naga5000:

India Heatwave Death toll now approaching 1500. Link


that number may be under the actual real numbers
Quoting 50. tampabaymatt:


12Z GFS


There's still quite a big spread between the GFS and ECMWF, and that spread hasn't gotten less.



The CMC is also not showing anything like the GFS.



The GEPS ensemble is not showing the Florida low.



The ECMWF-ENS ensemble is likewise showing nothing



It's only the GFS and GFS ensembles that are showing this low. It might be right but, given past history, it's hard to put a lot of faith in any one model when the others are not even in slight agreement. I suspect that the GFS will continue to move this low out in time as it suffers from the same convective feedback issue it's had for several years. At some point, a low actually will form somewhere near Florida and the other models will start to come onboard. That does not, however, mean the GFS was right all along.
Quoting 66. Neapolitan:

Speaking of the NHC, this was posted on their Twitter feed a short while ago:







Quite an improvement, wouldn't you say? Not perfect--but most definitely better...


Why not post the picture?

Edited: Thanks
From Dr. Wang's paper as to the observed El Nino anomalies as related to the PDO: now we have the chance to actually observe (for this year's El Nino) whether we see significant departures from past climatology with a similar signal this year.
Composites of the DJF detrended sc_PDSI_pm for the period 1900%u20132012.

Quoting 68. sar2401:



It's only the GFS and GFS ensembles that are showing this low. It might be right but, given past history, it's hard to put a lot of faith in any one model when the others are not even in slight agreement. I suspect that the GFS will continue to move this low out in time as it suffers from the same convective feedback issue it's had for several years. At some point, a low actually will form somewhere near Florida and the other models will start to come onboard. That does not, however, mean the GFS was right all along.


I'm not sure why so many on here are putting stock in the GFS low. As we've seen the past 2 hurricane seasons, the GFS has been totally unreliable with forming lows in the Gulf and Caribbean. Always interesting to watch what the models are showing, but I don't put any stock in the GFS for low pressure system genesis this time of the year.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...NORTHWEST
TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281645Z - 281815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL....DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL INCREASE FROM SERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX S
PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED GENERALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF LUBBOCK THIS MORNING...WITH A SEPARATE WEAKER AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR MIDLAND. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOBE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION...FEATURING A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ANALYZED NEAR I-20...AND A MORE RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
FROM THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO S OF SPS.

VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED IN 12Z MAF SOUNDING/
COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE YIELDING WIDESPREAD MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT WEAK CAPPING IS STILL LIKELY IN
PLACE...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED UNTIL TEMPERATURES REACH
THE UPPER-70S F. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND COULD INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH A LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT. ACCOMPANYING TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS CONVECTION BECOMES SFC-BASED. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32129951 33789927 34009925 34230053 33900180 33490415
32570481 31800456 31650292 31810183 31950051 32129951

Quoting 65. ricderr:

as a fan of el nino....anyone notice a few of the graphs that have been missing lately.........

hmmmmmmmm....i wonder why.....let's take a look at two of them.......first......let's look at the CFSV2...it was on blog page after blog page last month........with jaw dropping enso values that were off the chart..........let's look at it today...



WOWEEE....in three weeks it's dropped it's median high...by over 35 percent...that's half a degree folks......and if you use one bloggers numbers that it's 1 degree high....well....that would equate 1.5 at it's high value and it wouldn't last long enough for this el nino to be classified as strong.......now if you look at last year...and see that during this time when conditions are similar to last year....well....the cfsv2 was off by 55 percent...which if true for this year....we would also not see a strong event

does it mean anything......i don't know...but it makes you go hmmmmmmmmm








Part of me wonders if the above average hurricane season forecasted for the E-PAC will hinder El Nino. Won't all those storms stir up the waters and possibly lower SSTs, or at the very minimum, disrupt the current pattern? It probably depends on the presence of any kelvin waves below the surface.
12Z GFS & 12Z Canadian both develop a Tropical Storm and moves it into N/C FL late next week. MJO will be in prime position at the time so well see.


12Z Canadian below

Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS & 12Z Canadian both develop a Tropical Storm and moves it into N/C FL late next week. MJO will be in prime position at the time so well see.




Pic?

Edited: for the Canadian, is the thing next to Florida the TS?
I'm not sure why so many on here are putting stock in the GFS low. As we've seen the past 2 hurricane seasons, the GFS has been totally unreliable with forming lows in the Gulf and Caribbean. Always interesting to watch what the models are showing, but I don't put any stock in the GFS for low pressure system genesis this time of the year.

it's either watch what will most likely be a ghost low...or read my boring el nino posts...or worse.....watch the never ending haggling over AGW...

.pick your poison


Quoting 65. ricderr:

as a fan of el nino....anyone notice a few of the graphs that have been missing lately.........


Only problem is we are heading into Strong Territory at a pretty good clip now. Infact I say Strong E-Nino is now very likely and will be upon us later in July. Have you seen the TAO graphs? It looks as if you magical cooling won't happen next week when the CPC updates their values should see atleast a bump to 1.2C

CapeCodWeather.Net@capecodweather 4h4 hours ago
@EricBlake12 thoughts on where this is going - ie big pic vs 97-98, 82-83 etc? similar?

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago
@capecodweather I now think the odds are best for a strong El Nino, and one of those historic events is possible.

CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 4h4 hours ago
@EricBlake12 expanse of anomalous surface and sub-surface warmth is very impressive. thanks.
Quoting 75. 62901IL:



Pic?

Edited: for the Canadian, is the thing next to Florida the TS?


Weak system same as GFS but the GFS is more toward JAX. Nothing exciting though but likely will deliver some much needed rains to a dry Eastern FL.
Quoting 58. HaoleboySurfEC:

He is. Heard on NPR this morning.




Ah yes, the umpteenth verification of this. Thank you.
Quoting 79. Drakoen:



Ah yes, the umpteenth verification of this. Thank you.

Hey Drak, did you hear President Obama was visiting the NHC today? Pretty cool.
Part of me wonders if the above average hurricane season forecasted for the E-PAC will hinder El Nino. Won't all those storms stir up the waters and possibly lower SSTs, or at the very minimum, disrupt the current pattern? It probably depends on the presence of any kelvin waves below the surface.


they are a heat transfer.....depends on how deep the kelvin wave is...and you know...that's another graph we seem to not see as much......anyone remember last year....we had the KILLER kelvin wave...and as it surfaced....well...(someone start blowing taps...it died...vanished...poofed......gone......hide and seeked even......and last month...it was another daily feature on the blogs and the twittersphere....

let's look at it now




MOMMA....FETCH ME MY GLASSES........look from say may 8th til the end...are my eyes deceiving me or is it shrinking again.........not to be DONNIE DOWNCASTER.......but it just might be happening again

Quoting 53. LAbonbon:

What a fantastic webpage. I love reading about historical events (floods, in particular). Great photos as well.

If anyone knows of additional sites like this one where historical accounts are given of major flood/storm events, I'd love to see them!
Here are a whole bunch of pictures from my old stomping ground along the Russian River. There are also a lot of historical pictures of how the Russian River towns looked when it wasn't flooding. The contrast is startling. You can see in the color photos how much mud, trash, and other crud was in those floods. After 10 or 12 hours in that water you'd be coated in it. I'm still alive, so I guess it wasn't anything fatal, but there were times it felt like it, especially when you had to take in some mouthfuls. Yuck!
I guess no model can be trusted with this possible something coming around florida next week until maybe Monday or so..with each run the track changes..so we wait and see what happens huh
Only problem is we are heading into Strong Territory at a pretty good clip now. Infact I say Strong E-Nino is now very likely and will be upon us later in July. Have you seen the TAO graphs? It looks as if you magical cooling won't happen next week when the CPC updates their values should see atleast a bump to 1.2C

scottie.....you a gambler?........i've got a bet for you...coming monday's weekly enso report......if the 3.4 regions is 1.2 or higher.....i'll not blog for two days....if it is 1.1 or lower....you don't blog for two days.......you want to wager???????
i'm game!

Quoting 73. tampabaymatt:



Part of me wonders if the above average hurricane season forecasted for the E-PAC will hinder El Nino. Won't all those storms stir up the waters and possibly lower SSTs, or at the very minimum, disrupt the current pattern? It probably depends on the presence of any kelvin waves below the surface.

El Nino is measured by how warm/cold waters are compared to average along the equatorial Pacific. Tropical cyclones form generally above 5N because the Coriolis effect is weakest at the equator. Ultimately, this means that systems that develop should not have a negative impact on El Nino.
Not uncommon Ric, but good try as of this mornings update there is another Kelvin Wave rapidly building beneath Nino 3.4.

Here is this.

Eric Blake
Next downwelling Kelvin wave in the CPac-- should reinforce the moderating subsurface anomalies near SAmerica #ElNino


Just updated a few hours ago. Notice the big change that occurred over the last 5 days and the depth @ this happened. Very impressive El-Nino underway.
Quoting 85. ricderr:

Only problem is we are heading into Strong Territory at a pretty good clip now. Infact I say Strong E-Nino is now very likely and will be upon us later in July. Have you seen the TAO graphs? It looks as if you magical cooling won't happen next week when the CPC updates their values should see atleast a bump to 1.2C

scottie.....you a gambler?........i've got a bet for you...coming monday's weekly enso report......if the 3.4 regions is 1.2 or higher.....i'll not blog for two days....if it is 1.1 or lower....you don't blog for two days.......you want to wager???????
i'm game!




Got it. Deal!
CapeCodWeather.Net@capecodweather 4h4 hours ago
@EricBlake12 thoughts on where this is going - ie big pic vs 97-98, 82-83 etc? similar?

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago
@capecodweather I now think the odds are best for a strong El Nino, and one of those historic events is possible.

CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 4h4 hours ago
@EricBlake12 expanse of anomalous surface and sub-surface warmth is very impressive. thanks.


scott...when it comes to hype....blake makes you look like a rank amateur....should we pull up his posts from the same time last year.....you would think that boy would have some humility.....errr....well...maybe you wouldn't...but most of us would...LOL
Quoting 68. sar2401:



There's still quite a big spread between the GFS and ECMWF, and that spread hasn't gotten less.



The CMC is also not showing anything like the GFS.



The GEPS ensemble is not showing the Florida low.



The ECMWF-ENS ensemble is likewise showing nothing



It's only the GFS and GFS ensembles that are showing this low. It might be right but, given past history, it's hard to put a lot of faith in any one model when the others are not even in slight agreement. I suspect that the GFS will continue to move this low out in time as it suffers from the same convective feedback issue it's had for several years. At some point, a low actually will form somewhere near Florida and the other models will start to come onboard. That does not, however, mean the GFS was right all along.

I 100 percent agree with you sar. Yes it is hard to put faith in two models that mostly produce ghost storms, but look at the two models who predicted Ana over a week in advance. Yes, the GFS and CMC both suffer from convective feedback issues, but since they have been consistently showing this low, I'm leaning more to their solutions. Both agree on a low pressure forming, it's really the inconsistent timing between the two different models that is not in agreement. In fact, some of the other models, including the ECMWF show some type of lower atmospheric pressure, whether it's a well defined area of low pressure, or just an elongated area of low pressure.
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



Got it. Deal!



LOL>


..ok...so loser....cannot post anywhere on WU....on tuesday and wednesday

i'll get a psychologist to write a script for valium to help avoid withdrawls
Quoting 84. LargoFl:

I guess no model can be trusted with this possible something coming around florida next week until maybe Monday or so..with each run the track changes..so we wait and see what happens huh

I'd place more faith in the ECMWF than the GFS. Draw a line from Savannah to Cedar Key- the GFS overdoes everything below that line, within 150 miles of Fla coastline.
Follow HWRF for rainfall. It does better than GFS derivatives, too.

Hey Drak! Obama's at the NHC! talk about five degrees of separation - I just got Dr. Rick Knabb's signature a few weeks ago! Too bad it's not Kevin Bacon visiting the NHC....
Quoting 71. tampabaymatt:


I'm not sure why so many on here are putting stock in the GFS low. As we've seen the past 2 hurricane seasons, the GFS has been totally unreliable with forming lows in the Gulf and Caribbean. Always interesting to watch what the models are showing, but I don't put any stock in the GFS for low pressure system genesis this time of the year.
It hasn't been totally unreliable. The GFS did pick what became Ana pretty far out. The things is that the ECMWF came into agreement early on, and even the CMC was part of the pack when Ana was still five or six days out. The GFS is certainly not the most reliable model. The ECMWF has proven to be more reliable over time, but even it has problems with not picking up lows until much later than the GFS, although that's mostly because it doesn't form as many lows as does the GFS. It has been repeated over and over, by people a lot more knowledgeable than me, that looking at all the models gives you a much better picture of what might be down the road. There are some, however, that really just want to see a storm, and any model suits as long as it shows something between the NW Caribbean and Florida. It must be the excitement of the chase. :-)
Quoting 91. ricderr:




LOL>


..ok...so loser....cannot post anywhere on WU....on tuesday and wednesday

i'll get a psychologist to write a script for valium to help avoid withdrawls


Thank god, whomever wins, it's a victory for the blog for a couple of days. You two need some time apart, good grief.
The models are great when they verify in terms of formation and not good when they don't; same debate every year and it's a yearly contest to see which one did better or worse and how upgrades improve their forecasts. At the end of the day, what really matters is actual formation so we can start tracking an actual storm............................

Then we repeat the same exercise post-formation looking at all the track models (with NHC usually going with the best model consensus) in terms of track with the occasional outlier verifying.
Thank god, whomever wins, it's a victory for the blog for a couple of days. You two need some time apart, good grief.



ahh homie......22 posts in 7 years and you spent one on me...i'm flattered
Quoting 97. hydrus:


it Looks like the rainy season is about to kick in huh hydrus
Quoting 92. aquak9:


I'd place more faith in the ECMWF than the GFS. Draw a line from Savannah to Cedar Key- the GFS overdoes everything below that line, within 150 miles of Fla coastline.
Follow HWRF for rainfall. It does better than GFS derivatives, too.

Hey Drak! Obama's at the NHC! talk about five degrees of separation - I just got Dr. Rick Knabb's signature a few weeks ago! Too bad it's not Kevin Bacon visiting the NHC....
yeah but with Anna the GFS won hands down so I guess we wait this one out and see what happens
gee Texas cant catch a break, more storms there again today..........................
Quoting 90. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I 100 percent agree with you sar. Yes it is hard to put faith in two models that mostly produce ghost storms, but look at the two models who predicted Ana over a week in advance. Yes, the GFS and CMC both suffer from convective feedback issues, but since they have been consistently showing this low, I'm leaning more to their solutions. Both agree on a low pressure forming, it's really the inconsistent timing between the two different models that is not in agreement. In fact, some of the other models, including the ECMWF show some type of lower atmospheric pressure, whether it's a well defined area of low pressure, or just an elongated area of low pressure.
Several things. You might notice that the storm that was supposed to be here Thursday has now moved to Sunday. The GFS and, to a lesser extent, the CMC, can be expected to do that, especially early in the season. If you look at all the six hour updates of the 12z GFS, a low is shown at the tip of Florida starting at hour 162, when it's just created out of whole cloth. That's the supposed Thursday storm. Up until hour 288, that same low just wanders between Florida, Georgia, and just off the coast before it finally and unaccountably moves off to the NW and then disappears between TN and AR at hour 312. That means the GFS thinks this one low is going to last 5.25 days just wandering around Florida and Georgia. It's possible that could happen, but the more likely explanation is that the GFS, once it created the low, really is having problems figuring out where to place it, hence the wandering. You are going to see this kind of thing frequently. As I've said before, get used to comparing the different models as they update. You'll be able to see if they are predicting a similar evolution of a storm or if they don't agree at all. Until they start to agree, it's not better than a coin toss which is model might be right, if any, although I'd choose the ECMWF with seven days or less. The other thing is the GFS is the only one that goes beyond 240 hours. There's a reason for that. A model 300 plus hours out actually has less skill than a coin toss. Finding the first low on a model should not be a contest.
Quoting 39. LAbonbon:


Not really. Your original post brought up flooding. Extensive urbanization does influence flood response. Per the original post, climate change could influence the degree of precipitation (6+ %/degree of warming). In all likelihood, both agw/cc & urbanization may well have played a part.


Urbanization certainly plays a part in Houston flooding. The amount of concrete in the city and the lack of adequate drainage short of bayous that easily flood is one of the major issues with the city.
Quoting 85. ricderr:

Only problem is we are heading into Strong Territory at a pretty good clip now. Infact I say Strong E-Nino is now very likely and will be upon us later in July. Have you seen the TAO graphs? It looks as if you magical cooling won't happen next week when the CPC updates their values should see atleast a bump to 1.2C

scottie.....you a gambler?........i've got a bet for you...coming monday's weekly enso report......if the 3.4 regions is 1.2 or higher.....i'll not blog for two days....if it is 1.1 or lower....you don't blog for two days.......you want to wager???????
i'm game!


Hi Ric, hope you win.
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey Drak, did you hear President Obama was visiting the NHC today? Pretty cool.
Wow! I hadn't heard that before. Way neato. :-)

P.S. Did he drop off any money?
having my doubts of scotts "its going to rain e. cen fl forecast". if the gfs system is far enough offshore it will draw all the moisture into it. if it misses we will be in a drought.
Hi Ric, hope you win.

thanx native....it's a lock....vegas odds were three to one......but really....it's all for fun......too many people take themselves wayyyyy too seriously on here....and i'm not just talking about the mods....ta da da boom!!!!!!!..if you can't have fun....why bother
Quoting 106. ricderr:

Hi Ric, hope you win.

thanx native....it's a lock....vegas odds were three to one......but really....it's all for fun......too many people take themselves wayyyyy too seriously on here....and i'm not just talking about the mods....ta da da boom!!!!!!!..if you can't have fun....why bother
So true, some bloggers on here make it sound like it's life or death In regards to their post. Makes no difference what the subject is, El Nino, Climate Change, floods, it's a weather blog and I enjoy the weather, after all it's the only weather we have, so lets enjoy it.
I thought Thursday's were a Dry Season in Fla ?

: )


I thought Thursday's were a Dry Season in Fla ?

: )


there aint no dry seasons in florida...or counties either.......they're all plastered

Thanks for the update, Dr Jeff.
"The first named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season usually forms by June 10, so we are nearly two weeks ahead of climatology."
Hmm, somehow I'm a little confused over this minor point. Since E Pac season began on May 15 and the first storm usually forms BY (not on) June 10th, seems TS Andres formation is falling about in the middle, not 2 weeks earlier than climo. In other words, if Andres had not formed until June 10th (or after) wouldn't we be regarding it as rather later than average start?
Quoting 96. ricderr:

Thank god, whomever wins, it's a victory for the blog for a couple of days. You two need some time apart, good grief.



ahh homie......22 posts in 7 years and you spent one on me...i'm flattered


I guess you can add me to the mix too. As you said some take things to literally and need to losing up. BTW aren't we on topic so whats the big deal.
Quoting 108. Patrap:

I thought Thursday's were a Dry Season in Fla ?

: )




Well after work on Friday I am opening my own "Wet Season" @ Hurricane's during Happy Hour.
I'm so confused now,

The President is writing NHC Discussions, Climate Change is Drowning some and Baking some,...

El Nino is going to Spawn Godzilla or Mothra, one or the other prolly'

Guv'na's won't let State employee's to mention,"that which cannot be named", in daily affairs of great matter.

I may move up my retirement to Tromso,..

I can blog from there too.
Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:


Well after work on Friday I am opening my own "Wet Season" @ Hurricane's during Happy Hour.


Have one for me. I will dutifully cut my grass and then drink a beer saluting the rainy season.
Quoting 114. rmbjoe1954:



Have one for me. I will dutifully cut my grass and then drink a beer saluting the rainy season.


Getting dry around here fast after this very dry May. Models showing hope starting tomorrow. Well see.
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:



Getting dry around here fast after this very dry May. Models showing hope starting tomorrow. Well see.


10.64" for my location in just the 2nd half of May. Amazing how much of a difference between E C FL and W C FL. The same pattern with all of the sea breeze storms pinned to the west coast looks to continue with no end in sight.
time to rock and roll

Tropical Storm Andres is looking good, but may have a bit of an issue with dry air when developing:





I don't think it'll hinder it much with low shear and SSTS of 28-30C though. I think a peak of around 95-100kts, although wouldn't be surprised if it goes under a period of RI at some point and becomes stronger.
Euro now seems to be onboard.

Excerpt from the Miami NWS Discussion...

WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS MAY INCREASE
TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
WEAK TO ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO TRY AND DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY...AS SHOWN BY THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
hey guys sorry I missed the lunch time updates I was in a meeting with Red Cross members talking hurricane emergency operations etc
from what I can see not much has changed
talk on POTUS @ NHC
talk on EPac first TS
talk on possible NW Carib/E GOM/FL/NW Bahamas storm
talk on Scott apocalyptic El Nino
talk on heavy rains for US
123. yoboi

Top 10 Thunderstorm
cities
Avg annual number of thunderstorms

1. Fort Myers, Florida 89
2. Tampa, Florida 87
3. Tallahassee, Florida 83
4. Gainesville, Florida 81
5. Orlando, Florida 80
6. Mobile, Alabama 79
7. W. Palm Beach, Florida 79
8. Lake Charles, Louisiana 76
9. Daytona Beach, Florida 75
10. Vero Beach, Florida 75
hey guys sorry I missed the lunch time updates I was in a meeting with Red Cross members talking hurricane emergency operations etc
from what I can see not much has changed
talk on POTUS @ NHC
talk on EPac first TS
talk on possible NW Carib/E GOM/FL/NW Bahamas storm
talk on Scott apocalyptic El Nino
talk on heavy rains for US


well..that wrapped it up in just 5 lines...but you missed where we talked about you too :-)
Andres looks to be in the 50-55kt range by this point.

Quoting 119. DCSwithunderscores:



The record greatest 1-calendar-day rainfall in Houston is 10.34", which was set on June 26, 1989.

Link


Something ain't right. Link On mobile at the airport, so my searching skills are limited, but the link shows a clear daily record. Maybe you or someone else can dig deeper.

Edit 2: Naga needs to slow down and catch daily versus all time. My mistake.
Quoting 110. DocNDswamp:

Thanks for the update, Dr Jeff.
"The first named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season usually forms by June 10, so we are nearly two weeks ahead of climatology."
Hmm, somehow I'm a little confused over this minor point. Since E Pac season began on May 15 and the first storm usually forms BY (not on) June 10th, seems TS Andres formation is falling about in the middle, not 2 weeks earlier than climo. In other words, if Andres had not formed until June 10th (or after) wouldn't we be regarding it as rather later than average start?

Maybe "on average" would have been a better choice than "usually"?
Quoting 126. Naga5000:


Something ain't right. Link On mobile at the airport, so my searching skills are limited, but the link shows a clear daily record. Maybe you or someone else can dig deeper.
Your record is for the greatest daily rainfall ever on May 25, I think, since the notice was issued early in the morning on May 26. AGW's record is all time greatest rainfall ever recorded on any day.
psst naga...i believe that's a daily record
naga...you can go here to get the daily records click on the month and then check the day


Link
Quoting 129. ricderr:

psst naga...i believe that's a daily record
Quoting 128. sar2401:

Your record is for the greatest daily rainfall ever on May 25, I think, since the notice was issued early in the morning on May 26. AGW's record is all time greatest rainfall ever recorded on any day.


Thanks guys, this is what I get for using NBC as a source and blogging on a tablet. :)
Quoting 121. GeoffreyWPB:

Excerpt from the Miami NWS Discussion...

WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS MAY INCREASE
TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
WEAK TO ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO TRY AND DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY...AS SHOWN BY THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


that's similar to how I said it would happen
Quoting 126. Naga5000:



Something ain't right. Link On mobile at the airport, so my searching skills are limited, but the link shows a clear daily record. Maybe you or someone else can dig deeper.


May 25 of 2015 is the record wettest May 25 of any year, in Houston.
134. yoboi

Largest annual temperature
variation
Change in average temperature between
summer and winter

1. Fairbanks, Alaska 90.8
2. Bettles, Alaska 90.0
3. International Falls, MN 88.8
4. Fargo, North Dakota 87.0
5.Williston, North Dakota 86.6
6. Aberdeen, South Dakota 86.5
7. McGrath, Alaska 86.2
8. Bismarck, North Dakota 86.1
9. Alamosa, Colorado 85.9
10. St. Cloud, Minnesota 85.0
Quoting 124. ricderr:

hey guys sorry I missed the lunch time updates I was in a meeting with Red Cross members talking hurricane emergency operations etc
from what I can see not much has changed
talk on POTUS @ NHC
talk on EPac first TS
talk on possible NW Carib/E GOM/FL/NW Bahamas storm
talk on Scott apocalyptic El Nino
talk on heavy rains for US


well..that wrapped it up in just 5 lines...but you missed where we talked about you too :-)


I looked back not much of that
Quoting 126. Naga5000:



Something ain't right. Link On mobile at the airport, so my searching skills are limited, but the link shows a clear daily record. Maybe you or someone else can dig deeper.
The records you provided are individual records for a particular day, and not all-time one-day precipitation records.

For the record, Houston has recorded one-day rainfalls of 8" or greater six times:

8.16" - 18 APR 1976
8.13" - 06 JUN 2001
8.32" - 27 AUG 1945
8.04" - 28 OCT 2002
9.25" - 25 OCT 1984
10.34" - 26 JUN 1989
If past models are correct, it looks like Florida is in the clear.

Quoting 137. Grothar:

If past models are correct, it looks like Florida is in the clear.




Nah not even close mate

Link
Well Me is up 50kts.
Quoting 127. LowerCal:

Maybe "on average" would have been a better choice than "usually"?


Hiya LC,
Well I certainly wouldn't argue we've seen plenty freakish anomalies, "earliest" and "latest" occurrences but this simply seems a case of normal, or average time frame for a E PAC TS - sometime between May 15 and by June 10 we can expect see formation. Unlike STS Ana, I don't see this as an early storm "ahead of climo". And Jeff did point out several E Pac storms have formed in May. LOL, no big deal.

Now, it would be nice if one of these E Pac systems would eventually offer up rain to you rather than Texas, right?
We can always hope (while being careful what we wish for).
;)

Seems my Shield generator if werking fine.

Muah, ha,ha,ha,ha'


Quoting 137. Grothar:

If past models are correct, it looks like Florida is in the clear.


142. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, CMC (CANADA)
D&T:: on AniGif
IMAGERY TYPE:: IR (4bit-hues)
SUBJECT:: That Upper Level swirl in the cATL. It seems to have tapped into the round of moisture that came from ENSO-e and flew over Texas/Oklahoma - OHIO - NYS. That moisture was the rain over Texas / OK. BEFORE the mega deluge.

In a satellite clip using the navy's tropical imagery (not uploaded) if one could imagine the LOW being a person you can see the upper LOW chew in some dry air and spit it out twice causing that darker lined outflow boundary you see heading westward over the Bahamas at the end of this clip, as if the spitting out of the re-moisturized dry air will protect the LOW from any more dry air trying to head eastward by introducing moisture to that dry air. (of course that's just adding human characteristics to explain a scientific process)

Watch near the end of the gif as a mini swirl lower in the atmosphere tries to run ahead of the upper LOW near the "CMC" part of the Canadian LOGO and the upper LOW drags the plume the smaller lower level LOW puffed out, back into the upper LOW.

image host
I think I may be reading the blog too much. Last night Mrs. Grothar was making a nice roast and she asked me if I thought the oven was too hot!!

I stared at her with my steal blue eyes and replied coldly, "......How do you know it hasn't been hotter before?"

Gro - Can you turn on the AC for me in Florida. Seems to be a little hot out.
Quoting 143. Grothar:

I think I may be reading the blog too much.


Haha! Good one Gro.
Quoting 144. Dakster:

Gro - Can you turn on the AC for me in Florida. Seems to be a little hot out.


Dak, no one told you to move to a warm climate. You're on your own.
Quoting 142. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA, CMC (CANADA)
D&T:: on AniGif
IMAGERY TYPE:: IR (4bit-hues)
SUBJECT:: That Upper Level swirl in the cATL. It seems to have tapped into the round of moisture that came from ENSO-e and flew over Texas/Oklahoma - OHIO - NYS. That moisture was the rain over Texas / OK. BEFORE the mega deluge.

In a satellite clip using the navy's tropical imagery (not uploaded) if one could imagine the LOW being a person you can see the upper LOW chew in some dry air and spit it out twice causing that darker lined outflow boundary you see heading westward over the Bahamas at the end of this clip, as if the spitting out of the re-moisturized dry air will protect the LOW from any more dry air trying to head eastward by introducing moisture to that dry air. (of course that's just adding human characteristics to explain a scientific process)

Watch near the end of the gif as a mini swirl lower in the atmosphere tries to run ahead of the upper LOW near the "CMC" part of the Canadian LOGO and the upper LOW drags the plume the smaller lower level LOW puffed out, back into the upper LOW.

image host

the current sfc low expected to dissipate in less that 24hrs sfc trof associated with the sfc low expected to disintegrate and what ever energy it has left on the S end expected to get sucked into the tropical wave
ULL expected to move N then NE and open up into an upper trof between 60 and 72hrs


just updated
Chris Burt is back with a look on the warmest summers and coldest winters across 300 sites in the contiguous United States: Weather Extremes
83) Loved the view at River's End restaurant where it empties into Pacific, drove down there from the petrified forest following the Russian. Really like Sonoma County, much more than Napa (though their old faithful geyser was neat). Next time want to venture into part N of the river and Lake County.

80s & 60s dew pts in S C IL, light Easterlies & slightly over 30.1". Hoping we avoid rain until after sunset, have a few chores would like to finish tonight. Looks like most fields planted in my area, corn ankle or above, beans popping up after rains. Had pretty good wind Sun night that caused some isolated damage in town, .6" from it , then another unexpected .6" Tues. morning when forecast was for some light rain possibly.
From Tampa NWS:

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
FEATURE BUT IN GENERAL BOTH MEANDER THIS LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO 2+
INCHES) BEING DRAWN NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MID
WEEK ON.
Quoting 66. Neapolitan:

Speaking of the NHC, this was posted on their Twitter feed a short while ago:







Quite an improvement, wouldn't you say? Not perfect--but most definitely better...


While I'm nitpicking, ;)
Time will tell if their narrowing of the cone proves useful as a guidance tool for residents and particularly emergency managers, especially once within the critical 72 hr juncture. Wonder why NHC cherry-picked the 11 PM Fri Aug 26 graphic (proved accurate) for the illustration. Oh that's right, the alarming 140 mile track jump to the west from their 11 AM graphic, a mere 12 hrs earlier would not have looked so great.

What use would a narrower cone have been at that time?

We shall see. Especially when NHC has to pick / choose between model discrepancy extremes within those critical decision times.
Quoting 92. aquak9:


I'd place more faith in the ECMWF than the GFS. Draw a line from Savannah to Cedar Key- the GFS overdoes everything below that line, within 150 miles of Fla coastline.
Follow HWRF for rainfall. It does better than GFS derivatives, too.

Hey Drak! Obama's at the NHC! talk about five degrees of separation - I just got Dr. Rick Knabb's signature a few weeks ago! Too bad it's not Kevin Bacon visiting the NHC....


I'm just picturing the regular forecaster in charge, signing bills into law and other presidential duties of the day.
Quoting 137. Grothar:
If past models are correct, it looks like Florida is in the clear.



Now Gro- stop aiming your model solutions at us.
It's too early for that.
I just received a phone call from Emergency Management System warning me of a brush fire in the area. To expect smoke in the area and avoid the roads in the area of the fire.
156. vis0

Quoting 81. ricderr:

Part of me wonders if the above average hurricane season forecasted for the E-PAC will hinder El Nino. Won't all those storms stir up the waters and possibly lower SSTs, or at the very minimum, disrupt the current pattern? It probably depends on the presence of any kelvin waves below the surface.


they are a heat transfer.....depends on how deep the kelvin wave is...and you know...that's another graph we seem to not see as much......anyone remember last year....we had the KILLER kelvin wave...and as it surfaced....well...(someone start blowing taps...it died...vanished...poofed......gone......hide and seeked even......and last month...it was another daily feature on the blogs and the twittersphere....

let's look at it now




MOMMA....FETCH ME MY GLASSES........look from say may 8th til the end...are my eyes deceiving me or is it shrinking again.........not to be DONNIE DOWNCASTER.......but it just might be happening again


look what the turbulence is doing to my Shrinky Dink  :'-(  wahhhhhh!  ... last yr we had ENSO -w & ENSO -central up-linking 9to atmospheres)  but not ENSO -e. Now ENSO-e and ENSO-w, so when ENSO-c heats up ~ summer(late). Its as if nature is playing a shell game instead of 3 balls & a cup its 3 plumes and which will uncap.    c'mom c'mon pick the area, don't be shy don't hold back follow my hands and lets see whats up...ya pick ?????? one from #s column & 1 from Alpha minor column & 1 from Alpha major column . READ CAREFULLY i like to make people THINK.

STRENGTH OF EL NINO (EASTWARD activities/ towards USofA-Mex-Canada)::
1] El Nino MODERATE
2) El Nino WEAK
3) El Nino STRONG
4) El Nino OFF DA SCALE (HIGH)

HIGHEST OF ACTIVITY(ENSO-e OUTPUT)::
a) peaks in winter 2015
b) peaks in late fall 2015
c) peaks in early fall 2015
d) peaks in winter/spring 2015/16

DURATION OF GREATEST ENSO-e OUTPUT::
A) 2 months
B) 3 weeks
C) 5 weeks
D) 1 week


Maxweather will keep the tab...huh...no? oh well .

Quoting 155. Sfloridacat5:

I just received a phone call from Emergency Management System warning me of a brush fire in the area. To expect smoke in the area and avoid the roads in the area of the fire.

next week the rains come hopefully easing the fire danger some down there.
Quoting 154. rmbjoe1954:



Now Gro- stop aiming your model solutions at us.
It's too early for that.
and Gro..its Not even a blob yet lol
Quoting 156. vis0:


look what the turbulence is doing to my Shrinky Dink  :'-(  wahhhhhh!  ... last yr we had ENSO -w & ENSO -central up-linking 9to atmospheres)  but not ENSO -e. Now ENSO-e and ENSO-w, so when ENSO-c heats up ~ summer(late). Its as if nature is playing a shell game instead of 3 balls & a cup its 3 plumes and which will uncap.    c'mom c'mon pick the area, don't be shy don't hold back follow my hands and lets see whats up...ya pick ?????? one from #s column & 1 from Alpha minor column & 1 from Alpha major column . READ CAREFULLY i like to make people THINK.

STRENGTH OF EL NINO (EASTWARD activities/ towards USofA-Mex-Canada)::
1] El Nino MODERATE
2) El Nino WEAK
3) El Nino STRONG
4) El Nino OFF DA SCALE (HIGH)

HIGHEST OF ACTIVITY(ENSO-e OUTPUT)::
a) peaks in winter 2015
b) peaks in late fall 2015
c) peaks in early fall 2015
d) peaks in winter/spring 2015/16

DURATION OF GREATEST ENSO-e OUTPUT::
A) 2 months
B) 3 weeks
C) 5 weeks
D) 1 week


Maxweather will keep the tab...huh...no? oh well .


3,A,A.


Wow. Looks like at least 2 of the Nino regions have cooled recently.


National weather service Radar for my area. Got a nasty storm coming through Pittsylvania county now. Will be on my door step shortly :)
Another image of the fire just S.E. of Fort Myers.
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

Euro now seems to be onboard.




Am hoping it moves up the east gulf and across Florida because the east side of the state would still get plenty of rain but it would also be over here as well. Seeing as if anything develops at all, it would be broad and weak, and considering the blocking strength of high pressure so far this late spring/early summer, it seems more likely.


As long as it doesn't move east of the state. I'm so sick of seeing lows develop in the Bahamas and move east of the state, it always naturally leads to boring, drier than normal weather for most of us.
....some stupid with a flare gun, burned the place to the ground, now

..smoke on the water, a Fire in the Sky
Quoting 163. Jedkins01:



Am hoping it moves up the east gulf and across Florida because the east side of the state would still get plenty of rain but it would also be over here as well. Seeing as if anything develops at all, it would be broad and weak, and considering the blocking strength of high pressure so far this late spring/early summer, it seems more likely.


As long as it doesn't move east of the state. I'm so sick of seeing lows develop in the Bahamas and move east of the state, it always naturally leads to boring, drier than normal weather for most of us.

its really strange ,one run it goes up the east coast of florida, next run into and up the middle of florida
Quoting 161. Storms306:



National weather service Radar for my area. Got a nasty storm coming through Pittsylvania county now. Will be on my door step shortly :)
Quoting 166. LargoFl:


no good storm..see this web address for the radar.......http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/NCR/FC X_NCR_Legend_0.gif,,see where it says Legend?...the only time you can post this kind of radar is when it doesn't say Legend..it should say Loop ..then the radar will post...I learned that the hard way myself lol
well if nothing else, this lil storm can be a great preparedness drill for the coming of a good tropical system
How come y'all dont use the wu radar?

lood Warning
Statement as of 3:43 PM CDT on May 28, 2015

... Flood Warning extended until late Friday night... the Flood Warning
continues for
the Prairie Dog town Fork Red River near Childress 10n.
* From this evening to late Friday night... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 2:45 PM Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast... rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to
rise to near 10.3 feet by tomorrow morning.The river will fall
below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact... at 10.0 feet... cattle grazing in the flood plain are
threatened by rising water.

Below are the latest river stages and crest forecasts:
flood ---observed--- ---forecast-(feet)-----
stage stage Fri Sat sun
location (feet) (feet) 7am 7am 7am

Prairie Dog town Fork Red River
Childress 10n 10 9.6 10.3 9.4 8.2


Lat... Lon 3458 10041 3459 10020 3460 10001 3455 10001
3454 10020 3452 10039







College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     PUEBLO CO - KPUB 308 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 307 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 501 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 400 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
Quoting 175. Patrap:

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     PUEBLO CO - KPUB 308 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 307 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 501 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 400 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015


Severe thunderstorm warnings for Denver and Pueblo? Based on radar, those storms don't look very strong.
Norwegian Monarch Visits Alaska, Urges Action on Climate Change

By Monica Gokey, KSKA - Anchorage | May 27, 2015


The King of Norway visited Anchorage on Wednesday bearing a message of goodwill, and the message that climate change is a priority for all Arctic nations.



After visiting the Anchorage Museum, the Norwegian monarch, King Harald V, spoke at a luncheon hosted by the Alaska World Affairs Council, where he urged the value of science and study in the far north:

“Research and reliable data is essential in our struggle against climate change. The projects at the poles give us valuable knowledge in finding solutions to one of the greatest challenges of our time.”

And to hit that point home, Harald reiterated the words of a famous Norwegian explorer:

“Roald Amundsen once said, I quote, ‘Victory awaits him who has everything in order. Luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time. This is called bad luck.’

“Take Amundsen’s advice seriously. Let no stone be unturned as you seek to increase our understanding about the Arctic. Work hard. Be prepared. And you will have, as Amundsen put it, good luck.”

Harald’s two-day visit to Alaska culminated today in Anchorage.
Quoting 176. tampabaymatt:



Severe thunderstorm warnings for Denver and Pueblo? Based on radar, those storms don't look very strong.


Radar at those Heights and landscapes are difficult at best.

435  
WUUS55 KBOU 282115  
SVRBOU  
COC121-282200-  
/O.NEW.KBOU.SV.W.0036.150528T2115Z-150528T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO  
315 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM MDT  
 
* AT 315 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES  
SOUTHEAST OF PREWITT RESERVOIR...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF AKRON...  
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
AKRON...OTIS...BURDETT AND PLATNER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM  
WINDOWS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4008 10296 4014 10322 4033 10327 4043 10321  
4044 10296 4044 10294  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 333DEG 23KT 4034 10319  
 
HAIL...1.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
BARJENBRUCH  
 
569  
WUUS55 KPUB 282113  
SVRPUB  
COC009-282200-  
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0085.150528T2113Z-150528T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
313 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM MDT  
 
* AT 313 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
STONINGTON...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...  
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WALSH...VILAS AND STONINGTON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3714 10231 3742 10250 3751 10204 3716 10204  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 159DEG 11KT 3725 10224  
 
HAIL...2.00IN  
WIND...<50MPH  
 
 
 
HODANISH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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Well good early evening everyone,

So I was wondering, is there a location where we give our
Hurricane picks for this year?????
I just thought this was an interesting view of the SAL. I don't recall ever seeing a big slice of moisture extending across the Atlantic.

Contrail, anyone???

The Colorado TVS is a severe right mover.

Quoting 183. Grothar:

I just thought this was an interesting view of the SAL. I don't recall ever seeing a big slice of moisture extending across the Atlantic.

Contrail, anyone???




Kinda, but of the Gaia awakening I believe.

2015, the year the Climate Strikes Back..

Quoting 167. LargoFl:

no good storm..see this web address for the radar.......http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/NCR/FC X_NCR_Legend_0.gif,,see where it says Legend?...the only time you can post this kind of radar is when it doesn't say Legend..it should say Loop ..then the radar will post...I learned that the hard way myself lol
Thanks largo, its my first attempt at posting an image.lol best way to learn is trial and error :)
Quoting 170. Patrap:

How come y'all dont use the wu radar?


The NWS radar is much quicker for me to pull up. WU radar takes forever and a day.lol Probably just my internet though. "high speed" internet+living in the sticks is like dial up in the city, you hope that one will make up for the other but it still turns into a disappointment. lol
000
FXUS62 KTBW 281833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MID/LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
FEATURE BUT IN GENERAL BOTH MEANDER THIS LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO 2+
INCHES) BEING DRAWN NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MID
WEEK ON.

FOR NOW WILL DEPICT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE (THOUGH
THESE VALUES MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS) AND
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN NEAR NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ON AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
189. vis0

Quoting 183. Grothar:

I just thought this was an interesting view of the SAL. I don't recall ever seeing a big slice of moisture extending across the Atlantic.

Contrail, anyone???


CREDIT:: METOSAT through wxu member Grothar , multi headed plasma breathing dragons courtesy of BaltimoreBrains offer to Hydra???
SUBJECT:: time on my hands & enjoy weather imagery though hoping no one gets hurt by harsh weather.
Anigif::(wait4it)
TITLE::sleep tight with NOAA at yer side
image host


STAY TUNED TO NOAA radio, i see patraps warning are up so BE AWARE
well I see this is still the same ole junk.....
There is just "Nothing" to talk about.....
just saying
Taco :o)
Quoting 186. Storms306:

Thanks largo, its my first attempt at posting an image.lol best way to learn is trial and error :)
yep we all went thru it lol..good luck
2007's Lorenzo strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in 12 hours. While Andres's intensification rate has not been that rapid, it's certainly come close. Assuming the dry air lurking nearby doesn't cause too much damage, I expect the cyclone to be declared a hurricane at 3z (probably 0z in Best Track).

Quoting 143. Grothar:

I think I may be reading the blog too much. Last night Mrs. Grothar was making a nice roast and she asked me if I thought the oven was too hot!!

I stared at her with my steal blue eyes and replied coldly, "......How do you know it hasn't been hotter before?"




It's just a cycle.
It's the sun.
I didn't have anything to do with it
The freezer is colder.
I deny that it's any hotter.

Quoting 181. taco2me61:

Well good early evening everyone,

So I was wondering, is there a location where we give our
Hurricane picks for this year?????



yes max is doing it this year you have in tell june 1st
I would like to state a position, I agree with peer-reviewed papers and hard science dealing with ANYTHING. Science has proved itself again and again with how we live and operate in this day and age. I don't get it, why deny for the sake of argument? I have looked and checked up on everything discussed on this site for a while and while nothing is certain, statistics tend to prevail in certain trends that I see argued again and again with debunked facts. Why? This is counterproductive. What is won by undermining things that are backed up by hard science? It seems ego is more important (or money) than simple survival for future generations. It strikes me as selfish.
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

2007's Lorenzo strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in 12 hours. While Andres's intensification rate has not been that rapid, it's certainly come close. Assuming the dry air lurking nearby doesn't cause too much damage, I expect the cyclone to be declared a hurricane at 3z (probably 0z in Best Track).




Looks like it's already developed an eye by the looks of the last few frames.



But it looks like it's having issues with dry air getting into the core at the moment.
Sorry, something that was just on my mind from the past.
18Z GFS 186 hours out, bye bye! Low, well east of Florida!
Really hope this Low takes a closer track to the state, like to see some rain.
every run is different although always around florida..what changes is east or gulf coast Florida early on..
Correct, so I guess will know more by the end of next week sometime.
Quoting 202. LargoFl:

every run is different although always around florida..what changes is east or gulf coast Florida early on..
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

2007's Lorenzo strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in 12 hours. While Andres's intensification rate has not been that rapid, it's certainly come close. Assuming the dry air lurking nearby doesn't cause too much damage, I expect the cyclone to be declared a hurricane at 3z (probably 0z in Best Track).


CoC naked
Quoting 150. dabirds:

83) Loved the view at River's End restaurant where it empties into Pacific, drove down there from the petrified forest following the Russian. Really like Sonoma County, much more than Napa (though their old faithful geyser was neat). Next time want to venture into part N of the river and Lake County.
Beautiful country - lived there for many years before retiring down here in the mountains of western Panama in early 2012.

Here's a pic of my old Volvo Wagon with me sitting in it at Goat Rock watching the waves. And of course, Goat Rock would have been visible to you while dining in the River's End Restaurant at the mouth of the Russian River. I loved Sonoma County, but just could not afford to live a fulfilling life there any more.
Tropical Storm ANDRES
3:00 PM MDT Thu May 28
Location: 11.6°N 112.5°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mp
Tropical Storm ANDRES maybe a hurricane by the weekend!!
TS Andres is getting stronger (60 mph) and its in a low wind shear and warm water environment.


Read more...
TUE-THU...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK AS A MID
LVL TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SE TWD THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NWD INTO MID WEEK TOWARD E
CENTRAL FL. 00Z GFS IS CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS AND
SPINS UP A SFC LOW NEAR THE FL PENINSULA FOR MID WEEK AND LIFTS IT
NWD. GFS MODEL TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO GRADUALLY
MOVE THE LOW TRACK WESTWARD AND KEEP E CENTRAL FL ON THE WET SIDE OF
THE LOW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE AREA WED-THU. THE ECMWF IS
NOT SHOWING MUCH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT BUT DOES ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS INTO MID WEEK. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
TOWARD MID WEEK UP TO AROUND 50 PCT...THOUGH THIS MAY CONSERVATIVE
IF ANYTHING NEAR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES.
Quoting 203. hurricanewatcher61:

Correct, so I guess will know more by the end of next week sometime.
my best guess is we'll know more say Monday or early Tuesday, and IF by then that LOW has formed then we'll have a better idea where its going..someone somewhere in florida is going to get their needed rain next week
Interesting tstorms.
Quoting 209. meteorologistkidFL:

TS Andres is getting stronger (60 mph) and its in a low wind shear and warm water environment.


Read more...
maybe a hurricane by the weekend
Where's Andre? I figured he'd be ecstatic over his namesake storm (ok, it's andres but close enough) lol.
Quoting 150. dabirds:
83) Loved the view at River's End restaurant where it empties into Pacific, drove down there from the petrified forest following the Russian. Really like Sonoma County, much more than Napa (though their old faithful geyser was neat). Next time want to venture into part N of the river and Lake County.

80s & 60s dew pts in S C IL, light Easterlies & slightly over 30.1". Hoping we avoid rain until after sunset, have a few chores would like to finish tonight. Looks like most fields planted in my area, corn ankle or above, beans popping up after rains. Had pretty good wind Sun night that caused some isolated damage in town, .6" from it , then another unexpected .6" Tues. morning when forecast was for some light rain possibly.
It's a good restaurant with a great view. It's still there, and I think it's going on 50 years now. The Sonoma coast is beautiful on those rare days when the sun is out and the wind's not blowing. When the fog rolls in and you get 25 mph wind on top of 50 degree temperatures, it can be pretty miserable. About the only time you can really depend on sun is October. It's one of the few times it can get to 80 degrees and you can really sweat if you're overdressed.

My tomatoes have now reached six feet tall. There are so many on every plant it's pulling over the the tomato cages. I've got tons of strawberries and the cukes will crawl through the back door if I don't beat them down every day. It's the greenest I've ever seen it here in the face of highs of 90 or more every day the last couple of weeks. I swear, with enough rain, almost anything will get to humongous size in Alabama.
personally I think that this system will be stronger than what the models show and will develop sooner than what the models show I also believe the upper level environment will be better than what the models show as well

but of course its way to early to say this with a decent amount of confidence this would be better determined by the time we get into late weekend early week Sat/Sun/Mon
Quoting 204. Gearsts:

CoC naked

Its center is not naked, that is a banding eye.
EP012015 - Tropical Storm ANDRES
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Hope it will be on east side. We have had only a few sprinkles here on the space coast. My grass is just about like hay!
Quoting 211. LargoFl:

my best guess is we'll know more say Monday or early Tuesday, and IF by then that LOW has formed then we'll have a better idea where its going..someone somewhere in florida is going to get their needed rain next week
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its center is not naked, that is a banding eye.
I still think is dry air.
Quoting 205. Xulonn:
Beautiful country - lived there for many years before retiring down here in the mountains of western Panama in early 2012.

Here's a pic of my old Volvo Wagon with me sitting in it at Goat Rock watching the waves. And of course, Goat Rock would have been visible to you while dining in the River's End Restaurant at the mouth of the Russian River. I loved Sonoma County, but just could not afford to live a fulfilling life there any more.
Yeah, one of the reasons why I left was it just got too expensive. It was bad enough when I was working for a decent salary but it's impossible if you're retired on at least a semi-fixed income. The other thing that has really changed in the county is how crowded it's gotten. Petaluma and Santa Rosa, even though they are 40 and 55 miles from downtown SF, have become bedroom communities for commuters because they can still afford a house. That's assuming $400,000 would be called affordable in most parts of the country, but that's what you have to pay, compared to $750,000 in Marin. Some people even commute to the Santa Clara Valley, which is over 100 miles. I don't know how they do it without turning into crazed killers. On a nice Sunday afternoon, it can take an easy two hours to drive to the coast from Santa Rosa. Down here, a traffic jam is when there are more than five people waiting at the light. :-)

P.S. The whole earthquake thing wasn't too much fun either.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

It's a good restaurant with a great view. It's still there, and I think it's going on 50 years now. The Sonoma coast is beautiful on those rare days when the sun is out and the wind's not blowing. When the fog rolls in a you get 25 mph wind on top of 50 degree temperatures, it can be pretty miserable. About the only time you can really depend on sun is October. It's one of the few times it can get to 80 degrees and you can really sweat if you're overdressed.

My tomatoes have now reached six feet tall. There are so many on every plant it's pulling over the the tomato cages. I've got tons of strawberries and the cukes will crawl through the back door if I don't beat them down every day. It's the greenest I've ever seen it here in the face of highs of 90 or more every day the last couple of weeks. I swear, with enough rain, almost anything will get to humongous size in Alabama.


Just returned from bird watching on the Sonoma Coast with Audubon.
Saw 3 Bald Eagles today.
Rivers End is still there.

Gray and cool today, just like I like it.
Quoting 197. ATLsweather:

I would like to state a position, I agree with peer-reviewed papers and hard science dealing with ANYTHING. Science has proved itself again and again with how we live and operate in this day and age. I don't get it, why deny for the sake of argument? I have looked and checked up on everything discussed on this site for a while and while nothing is certain, statistics tend to prevail in certain trends that I see argued again and again with debunked facts. Why? This is counterproductive. What is won by undermining things that are backed up by hard science? It seems ego is more important (or money) than simple survival for future generations. It strikes me as selfish.

Many people have decided that AGW is a threat to threir core beliefs. Our friend JB has taken to citing Bible verses as proof that AGW is bunk, although, in his case, money can't be ruled out as a motivation
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 282036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The satellite presentation of Andres continues to improve, with a
band of convection now wrapping about three-quarters of the way
around the center. A recent ASCAT pass revealed maximum winds
of about 50 kt, so the initial intensity has been increased
accordingly. The scatterometer data also provided a better
estimate of the size of the tropical cyclone wind field, and the
tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted outward.

The satellite data indicate that the center is located a bit
southwest of the previous estimate, but the overall initial motion
remains west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from before. Andres should move west-
northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from
central Mexico. The 1200 UTC global models show more ridging to the
north of Andres late in the period than previous runs, which has
resulted in a westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC
forecast has been adjusted westward, but it lies along the right
side of the guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear
should allow for continued steady strengthening during the next
couple of days. Although the latest SHIPS RI index shows a lower
chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours than this
morning, it would not be surprising if rapid intensification
occurred. The NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity
guidance and is closest to the SHIPS model. After 72 hours, Andres
should begin to weaken when it encounters slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures and a drier and more stable airmass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 11.6N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Quoting 221. hurricanewatcher61:

Hope it will be on east side. We have had only a few sprinkles here on the space coast. My grass is just about like hay!


Me too, I will be in orlando next week lol
Quoting 222. Gearsts:

I still think is dry air.


No doubt there's dry air lurking by but my post still stands.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Wow. Looks like at least 2 of the Nino regions have cooled recently.





The header on this confuses me. "Anomaly change"
So is this saying that temps that are outside of average have changed in "this" direction.
In other words the blue areas are lower than the previous anomaly temps? ie anomalous temps have not stayed on par with average rise?
Very misleading/ confusing graph title.
What am I not understanding here?
edit:
Or the water temp could have risen but the blue color shows that it is 0.4 Degrees less anomalous?
I hope this doesn't happen. I had high hopes for Bill this year after 2009.

Quoting 231. CybrTeddy:

I hope this doesn't happen. I had high hopes for Bill this year after 2009.




I wanna get to Henri.
I have a good feeling about Henri.
2009's Bill was a pretty great storm. Beautiful, with low land impacts.
Quoting 230. QueensWreath:





The header on this confuses me. "Anomaly change"
So is this saying that temps that are outside of average have changed in "this" direction.
In other words the blue areas are lower than the previous anomaly temps? ie anomalous temps have not stayed on par with average rise?
Very misleading/ confusing graph title.
What am I not understanding here?


Nino 1&2 is cooling some but the warmth is really gathering across Nino 3.4. Very confident infact 99% sure we will atleast have a 1.2C reading or higher come Monday via CPC's update. TAO is really good at depicting what is actually going on the CDAS has lots of eradict fluctions which really throws off values.

Quoting 202. LargoFl:

every run is different although always around florida..what changes is east or gulf coast Florida early on..




How bout this happens again
Quoting 202. LargoFl:

every run is different although always around florida..what changes is east or gulf coast Florida early on..


How do you post something like this on Facebook?


Last year was actually exciting to some degree.

And out of the entire Atlantic, two hurricanes decide to hit Bermuda within a week of each other.
Quoting 233. StormTrackerScott:



Nino 1&2 is cooling some but the warmth is really gathering across Nino 3.4. Very confident infact 99% sure we will atleast have a 1.2C reading or higher come Monday via CPC's update. TAO is really good at depicting what is actually going on the CDAS has lots of eradict fluctions which really throws off values.




Thanks Storm.
But I am very interested in understanding that graph. Are red areas more anomalous warmth and blue areas less anomalous warmth?

EDIT
Because in my mind the graph that shows anomalous temps should be way different than anomaly change.
Heat wave kills nearly 1,500: Green body warns of more agony

“More heat waves were expected as globally temperatures have risen by an average .8 degrees in the past 100 years. Night-time temperatures are rising too, with Ahmedabad and Delhi recently reporting 39 and 36 degrees centigrade respectively. The number of heat wave days may go up from about 5 to between 30 and 40 every year,” said a statement by the Delhi-based green advocacy and research body.

Link
Quoting 235. Hurricanes101:



How do you post something like this on Facebook?

sorry I don't use facebook..maybe some one on here does ok..good luck
Quoting 236. JrWeathermanFL:



Last year was actually exciting to some degree.

And out of the entire Atlantic, two hurricanes decide to hit Bermuda within a week of each other.

For the first time in recorded history.
Quoting 234. JrWeathermanFL:





How bout this happens again
lol this could very well happen,one run yesterday took the LOW itself right up the middle of Florida..i guess right now anything is possible.
Texas is going to get yet another round of heavy rain...

Quoting 235. Hurricanes101:



How do you post something like this on Facebook?



You quote the image comment, and then take the http image line and post it in FB, and bada Boom.

http://www.cocorahs.org/zach/TS_Fay_Track.jpg

Dis Happens


Quoting 242. hydrus:

Texas is going to get yet another round of heavy rain...


gee Hydrus,those people cant catch a break over there.
Quoting 241. LargoFl:

lol this could very well happen,one run yesterday took the LOW itself right up the middle of Florida..i guess right now anything is possible.


lol I remember last season Sar joked about a storm detaching from the earth and spinning off into outer space.

Have to remember that as a possibility too..
Special StatementStatement as of 6:15 PM CDT on May 28, 2015

... Significant weather advisory effective until 715 PM CDT for
Jones... Shackelford... Taylor... Throckmorton and Callahan counties...

At 612 PM CDT... a strong thunderstorm was indicated by National
Weather Service Doppler radar 10 miles east of Nugent... or about 12
miles west of Albany... moving northeast at 15 mph. Although the
individual storms are moving north... the line of storms will
continue to propagate southward.

* The strong thunderstorm will be near...
McCarty Lake by 630 PM CDT
Albany by 650 PM CDT
Fort Griffin by 715 PM CDT

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT Thursday evening
for west central Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1100 PM CDT Thursday evening for west central Texas.

Lat... Lon 3296 9895 3295 9909 3222 9911 3211 9993
      3269 9987 3299 9923 3339 9895
time... Mot... loc 2315z 223deg 14kt 3269 9949

Daniels


Quoting 244. Patrap:



You quote the image comment, and then take the http image line and post it in FB, and bada Boom.

http://www.cocorahs.org/zach/TS_Fay_Track.jpg

Dis Happens





What if it is not a jpg image?
Quoting 249. Hurricanes101:



What if it is not a jpg image?


It will work, just try it,,, most png will run as well.



252. etxwx
This is just a reminder that the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles will host a live youtube discussion tonight, Thursday, May 28 at 7:00 PM to talk about the upcoming hurricane season, the newly released forecast storm numbers, what we can expect this season, the new Storm Surge Warning product and answer all your hurricane questions. No registration is necessary. To join our live broadcast, simply click the link below at the specified time.
You may ask questions now or during the broadcast and we'll answer them during the discussion. We hope you join us tonight.Link
Where is this Low supposed to form?
Quoting 241. LargoFl:

lol this could very well happen,one run yesterday took the LOW itself right up the middle of Florida..i guess right now anything is possible.
Quoting 237. QueensWreath:


Thanks Storm.
But I am very interested in understanding that graph. Are red areas more anomalous warmth and blue areas less anomalous warmth?

EDIT
Because in my mind the graph that shows anomalous temps should be way different than anomaly change.


Yes, red/orange are warming anomalies. Blue colors are cooling anomalies during the last 24hrs.

The red/orange's are showing up where the most warming is occurring and that is in Nino 3.4 due to westerly wind anomalies ongoing. No way I would bet the STS on this one but someone did so well see how it goes on Monday
Quoting 245. LargoFl:

gee Hydrus,those people cant catch a break over there.
Looks bad..There may be a break, but over all pattern stays the same. This means the same pattern sets up repeatedly until something big in the hemispheric pattern shifts.

Hey, TA. What is that little round, dry spot forming in the middle??

Quoting 134. yoboi:


Largest annual temperature
variation
Change in average temperature between
summer and winter

1. Fairbanks, Alaska 90.8
2. Bettles, Alaska 90.0
3. International Falls, MN 88.8
4. Fargo, North Dakota 87.0
5.Williston, North Dakota 86.6
6. Aberdeen, South Dakota 86.5
7. McGrath, Alaska 86.2
8. Bismarck, North Dakota 86.1
9. Alamosa, Colorado 85.9
10. St. Cloud, Minnesota 85.0



Then there is this from Ojmjakon, Russia:

". On July 28, 2010, Oymyakon recorded a record high temperature of 34.6 °C (94 °F),[16] yielding a temperature range of 102.3 °C (184.1 °F). Verkhoyansk and Yakutsk are the only other places in the world with a temperature amplitude higher than 100 °C (180 °F)"

Link
The latest CMC shows very heavy rain over the Western Caribbean..
As it stands this is the strongest El-Nino for May ever recorded since records have been kept going back to 1950. Impressive beginning so far but this doesn't mean we will surpass 1997 because of this fast start. In order to see a 1997 or greater ENSO we would need to see the current conditions persist.



It really is tragic seeing all the destruction to lives and property in the Texas and Oklahoma.

Quoting 256. Grothar:

Hey, TA. What is that little round, dry spot forming in the middle??


Greetings Gro.....LRDS....?
Quoting 261. Grothar:

It really is tragic seeing all the destruction to lives and property in the Texas and Oklahoma.


Tragic is a proper word, and it could get worse..Prayers to those folks
The Texas flooding -

State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said on Thursday the average rainfall across the state was 7.54 inches (19 cm) in May, breaking the record of 6.66 inches (17 cm) set in June 2004, according to records that date to 1895.

"It has been ridiculous," Nielsen-Gammon said.


Link

A town called Shallowater just west of Lubbock , got nearly 7 inches of rain in 2 hours today. These storms are marching into Ft. Worth and Dallas as I type ,

Large areas north of Lubbock have received over 8 to 10 inches of rain in last 48 hours.

Link
Quoting 256. Grothar:

Hey, TA. What is that little round, dry spot forming in the middle??




A UFO
Quoting 251. Patrap:



It will work, just try it,,, most png will run as well.






It worked, thanks
Quoting 225. ACSeattle:


Many people have decided that AGW is a threat to threir core beliefs. Our friend JB has taken to citing Bible verses as proof that AGW is bunk, although, in his case, money can't be ruled out as a motivation


Oh so then he must have figured out the analog year for the second coming. Any bets? I will go with 1929 C.E.
Hot off the press.

18Z GFS ENS


Quoting 225. ACSeattle:


Many people have decided that AGW is a threat to threir core beliefs. Our friend JB has taken to citing Bible verses as proof that AGW is bunk, although, in his case, money can't be ruled out as a motivation



I would love a link to that. It would be useful whenever someone tries to cite him as a credible person.
State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said on Thursday the average rainfall across the state was 7.54 inches (19 cm) in May, breaking the record of 6.66 inches (17 cm) set in June 2004, according to records that date to 1895.

So in just 11 years we set another all time monthly record for Rainfall in Texas by well over an one inch, and in the middle of that there was the hottest driest summer on record.

As the system nears the tipping point it tends to swing to the extremes. There it gets stuck, before wildly swinging back to the other extreme.
Quoting 267. wartsttocs:



Oh so then he must have figured out the analog year for the second coming. Any bets? I will go with 1929 C.E.

So if the stock market crashes, the gig is up, so to speak?
Quoting 266. Hurricanes101:



It worked, thanks


Like Largo was saying, goes west or east someone is going to get a lot of rain.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:

Hot off the press.

18Z GFS ENS



Quoting 262. hydrus:

Greetings Gro.....LRDS....?


Hi, hy. No, just old age.
Well I just checked the guages on the upper Brazos River lakes and they're about full, so with the River down here on the coast west of Houston reaching major flood level tomorrow, and with rain now pounding the upper watershed, and with more expected across the State this weekend; it's good-bye.

Look for me floating somewhere out in the Gulf in my little pirogue.
Quoting 234. JrWeathermanFL:





How bout this happens again
Quoting 241. LargoFl:

lol this could very well happen,one run yesterday took the LOW itself right up the middle of Florida..i guess right now anything is possible.


I'm thinking something like
TS Nicole 2010
TS Barry 2007
TS Alberto 2006
TS Arlene 2005
TS Bonnie 2004
Hurricane Irene 1999
hurricane Allison 1995
TS Alberto 1994
TS Fabian 1991
TD One 1990

in terms of Tracks
281. txjac
Quoting 279. Fraidycat:

Well I just checked the guages on the upper Brazos River lakes and they're about full, so with the River down here on the coast west of Houston reaching major flood level tomorrow, and with rain now pounding the upper watershed, and with more expected across the State this weekend; it's good-bye.

Look for me floating somewhere out in the Gulf in my little pirogue.


Pick me up on your way by?
That line stretches from Canada to Mexico.


Quoting 146. Grothar:



Dak, no one told you to move to a warm climate. You're on your own.


I'm just visiting. Moved away FROM the warm climate. Although if this global warming thing keeps up I will be able to plan my mango and avocado trees outside up here in Anchorage.

I took this a couple of days ago - you know it is bad when it is hot around the arctic circle.

Quoting 279. Fraidycat:

Well I just checked the guages on the upper Brazos River lakes and they're about full, so with the River down here on the coast west of Houston reaching major flood level tomorrow, and with rain now pounding the upper watershed, and with more expected across the State this weekend; it's good-bye.

Look for me floating somewhere out in the Gulf in my little pirogue.


Get ready little lady hell is coming to breakfast.

There is a huge amount of water coming down the Brazos just in last 2 days.
Quoting 282. Grothar:

That line stretches from Canada to Mexico.





'Cause it's the new mother nature taking over
It's the new splendid lady come to call
It's the new mother nature taking over
She's gettin' us all
She's gettin' us all
Quoting 281. txjac:



Pick me up on your way by?


This Derecho about 2 hrs NW of Austin is clocking 40mph and forming a tighter bow.
Usually the Hills it's about to enter break it up, but these days....
If it keeps up?

Heres a thought.

No one alive or born today will ever see CO2 below 400ppm.

Ever.
Quoting 282. Grothar:

That line stretches from Canada to Mexico.





actually that line stretches from Canada to the E Pac down to 5N
Good evening folks

Checking in on the eve of the 2015 season.

Lots of talk about El Nino crimping the season this year but truth is the past 3 have been no better than active El Nino years. High SAL readings in the early part of each season and dry stable air coupled with high shear thereafter produced activity that was below expectations by the experts and bloggers. I have mentioned in more than one of the past 3 seasons that we may have transitioned into a less active period from a more active period, a refrain which has been echoed by experts recently.

Focusing on El Nino as a significant predictor of this year's activity may well be less important than the unusually stable environment that has persisted since 2012. El Nino or not, this year might be no more active than the past few .



Quoting 284. wunderkidcayman:


Can you explain what those two images mean and how they are helpful to determining if there's going to be a tropical cylcone somewhere in the Atlantic over the next 10 days or so? For example, how about an explanation of what the masses of blue and red lines mean in the second image.
Quoting 289. wunderkidcayman:



actually that line stretches from Canada to the E Pac down to 5N


Nice catch,
Quoting 290. kmanislander:

Good evening folks

Checking in on the eve of the 2015 season.

Lots of talk about El Nino crimping the season this year but truth is the past 3 have been no better than active El Nino years. High SAL readings in the early part of each season and dry stable air coupled with high shear thereafter produced activity that was below expectations by the experts and bloggers. I have mentioned in more than one of the past 3 seasons that we may have transitioned into a less active period from a more active period, a refrain which has been echoed by experts recently.

Focusing on El Nino as a significant predictor of this year's activity may well be less important than the unusually stable environment that has persisted since 2012. El Nino or not, this year might be no more active than the past few .






I wonder what people would think if we end up having about 15-16 named storms this year instead of the 5-11 named that's been forecasted
Quoting 294. wunderkidcayman:



I wonder what people would think if we end up having about 15-16 named storms this year instead of the 5-11 named that's been forecasted


I suppose it would further undermine their faith in the pundits, professional and amateur, but given what we have seen over the past few seasons coupled with a building El Nino I think the risk of that happening is remote.
I just gave myself a little comedic break. Posting that pic only took me 30 minutes. Learning WU and new computer all over again. This is in the NW of my county. Used to live out there, but not that close to the river. So, I'm good. Just some branches down, street flooding. Got friends and loved ones all through the state. Keeping an eye on things again tonight. My heart goes out to everyone from Oklahoma on down. Glad to see some old Texas friends on here tonight. etx, txjac, red...everybody. Hang in there. The water doesn't usually come rushing down the rivers here. But it sure does hang around.



Boating is a way of life for people in the Lakeview community in Orange County who travel on the Neches River, but now, the river has overtaken roads.

Water levels at Lake Sam Rayburn are 172.48 feet above sea level, only three feet below record levels from 1992.

Flood gates at the lake will likely be opened soon, depending on how much more rain will fall this weekend. That means the already-swollen Neches River could flood even more.

Some of the models are favoring some development in the eastern Gulf, rather than the Atlantic.

Voted best burger joint in C FL.

1. Teak Neighborhood Grill: Drunken Monk

What's on it: Angry Orchard onion jam, roasted cherry tomatoes, smoked bacon, herb mayo, provolone cheese, house made Teak Chips and topped with melted white cheddar cheese. Served on a pretzel bun.

Address: 6400 Time Square Ave, Orlando, FL 32835

Shield Generator has failed,Scotty,..we need it back ASAP.


Quoting 297. Grothar:

Some of the models are favoring some development in the eastern Gulf, rather than the Atlantic.


Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:

Voted best burger joint in C FL.

1. Teak Neighborhood Grill: Drunken Monk

What's on it: Angry Orchard onion jam, roasted cherry tomatoes, smoked bacon, herb mayo, provolone cheese, house made Teak Chips and topped with melted white cheddar cheese. Served on a pretzel bun.

Address: 6400 Time Square Ave, Orlando, FL 32835





Yo, Scott. Does that come with or without a triple bypass.
That line stretches from Canada to Mexico.

Yes it does, And that is a new thing, Giant lines of storms marching around the world , and doing it very slowly.

When thunderstorm forms, . It just floats. The System is not driving it like the past.
Quoting 300. Grothar:



Yo, Scott. Does that come with or without a triple bypass.


With. LOL
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* California's drought: All the leaves are brown

*** Pray for a proper policy: The Lone Star State would do well to plan for floods

Waterworlds: Never mind planets. The solar system's icy moons may well be the best places to hunt for aliens

* Coping with adversity



Pack Power: The wolves of Yellowstone provide some surprising survival lessons

* Do you see what I see? Children exposed to several languages are better at seeing through others' eyes

* A Relic of California's Oil Past Haunts State With Sea Spill



!!! A Chat on the Clash of Meteorology and Politics Behind Texas's Flood Dangers

*** Memory alloy bounces back into shape 10 million times



Black hole glimpsed playing cosmic billiards (with video)

*** Long life: Balancing protein and carb intake may work as well as calorie restriction



Super-efficient light-based computers



New energy policy needed as nuclear giants take a hit

Big Bang aftermath: Ancient stars from birth of the universe



!!! Unexpected brain structures tied to creativity, and to stifling it

Smart flies can match odd scents to sweet treats based on time of day

Ancient DNA sheds light on how past environments affected ancient populations

* Extreme global warming of Cretaceous period punctuated with significant global cooling

Innovative components pave way for cheaper wind energy

* Astronomy: Link between mergers and supermassive black holes with relativistic jets



What our solar system looked like as a 'toddler'



*** Donuts, math, and superdense teleportation of quantum information



'!!! Squeezed quantum cats' and 'stable cats' for quantum computers

USDA plans to inject $100 million on ethanol infrastructure: sources

Norway-based energy consortium defers Canadian Arctic seismic tests

*** Alberta wildfires burn for 6th day, 10 percent of oil sands crude offline

Serpent robot evolves into Snake Monster

!!! Retracted Scientific Studies: A Growing List

* To Protect Honeybees, EPA Seeks New Restrictions on Pesticide Use

Mysterious substance fouls California beach: A blobby slick of tarlike substance forced the closure of California beaches 100 miles south of recent oil spill

NASA: NIRSpec MSA Replacement Surgery (video)
Dyess Air Force Base, TX RadarLink


Nice to see you AtHome. Some of us have been wondering about you. Glad you could stop by. We just can't believe some of those pictures.
Quoting 290. kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Checking in on the eve of the 2015 season.

Lots of talk about El Nino crimping the season this year but truth is the past 3 have been no better than active El Nino years. High SAL readings in the early part of each season and dry stable air coupled with high shear thereafter produced activity that was below expectations by the experts and bloggers. I have mentioned in more than one of the past 3 seasons that we may have transitioned into a less active period from a more active period, a refrain which has been echoed by experts recently.

Focusing on El Nino as a significant predictor of this year's activity may well be less important than the unusually stable environment that has persisted since 2012. El Nino or not, this year might be no more active than the past few .



I suspect that El Nino will just reinforce poor conditions that are already in place. The trade winds will be even more pronounced, high pressure over the tropical Atlantic will be even more extensive, the Pacific lows will keep coming in and heading toward the Plains and down to and into the Gulf, making any storms there more difficult to get going by reinforcing the existing wind shear. SAL may or may not be as extensive as last year but I'm not convinced that SAL by itself is much of determinitive factor anyway. Dry air over the MDR exists with or without SAL, and that's a much bigger deal.

I do think we are entering the extended cold phase of the AMO and that the high ACE seasons that were so common from 1995 to 2005 have come to an end. I have now lived through two active periods (basically from when I was born in 1946 through 1971 and 1995 through the present) and one long (1972 through about 1994) low activity period. Even though it's just anecdotal, I remember, after living through such generally very high activity seasons from the late 50's through 1970, how surprised I was when it seemed like someone just turned off the switch. 1995 came and, just as suddenly, someone flipped the switch on again. I started getting the same feeling again after 2010 that the switch had once again been turned off. The end of the active era, all the already existing poor conditions for tropical cyclones, and now a real El Nino are going to combine to bring about some period of average low activity. I don't know how long it will last but I suspect at least as long as we saw the last active period, even as this El Nino fades.
Quoting 300. Grothar:



Yo, Scott. Does that come with or without a triple bypass.
I was wondering if there was an actual hamburger associated with that sandwich since it seems to mention everything but.
I don't think it's any coincidence Atlantic activity began to diminish when we started to go multiple years without an El Nino event. Now that we have an intensifying El Nino, it'll be interesting to see how later hurricane seasons behave and whether or not the active era is truly over. For now, I maintain my 'no' vote.
309. 882MB




Looks like another CDAS crash happened. Go figure as there have been lots of kinks with that system lately.

NAM & WRF models also had an outage. Strange.
Quoting 307. sar2401:
I was wondering if there was an actual hamburger associated with that sandwich since it seems to mention everything but.


Me personally I prefer Breakers @ NSB (New Smyrna Beach).
Quoting 296. AtHomeInTX:
I just gave myself a little comedic break. Posting that pic only took me 30 minutes. Learning WU and new computer all over again. This is in the NW of my county. Used to live out there, but not that close to the river. So, I'm good. Just some branches down, street flooding. Got friends and loved ones all through the state. Keeping an eye on things again tonight. My heart goes out to everyone from Oklahoma on down. Glad to see some old Texas friends on here tonight. etx, txjac, red...everybody. Hang in there. The water doesn't usually come rushing down the rivers here. But it sure does hang around.



Boating is a way of life for people in the Lakeview community in Orange County who travel on the Neches River, but now, the river has overtaken roads.

Water levels at Lake Sam Rayburn are 172.48 feet above sea level, only three feet below record levels from 1992.

Flood gates at the lake will likely be opened soon, depending on how much more rain will fall this weekend. That means the already-swollen Neches River could flood even more.

I'm glad to see you and your family are OK. Really amazing what has been happening in Texas and Oklahoma over the past several weeks. Just like California, it seems Texas can't end a drought without widespread flooding. It does look like the heavy rain threat will ease after Saturday and most areas of Texas will get a couple of days to dry out next week. Unfortunately, the basic pattern hasn't changed, so the only question is what areas will get the next rounds of heavy rain. :-(
Quoting 305. Grothar:



Nice to see you AtHome. Some of us have been wondering about you. Glad you could stop by. We just can't believe some of those pictures.


Hi Gro! Nice to see you too. And everybody! I've been having technical difficulties. My computer has too... :-) Been crazy weather lately. I've been keeping in touch with a friend who used to be on WU (bohonkweatherman) . He was under a tornado warning right before the Brazos busted its banks, or right after? Can't remember but he lives in Hays County out there. But luckily not by the river. He and his are ok. But there's more headed that way now. Then there was a tornado warning right on top of College Station the next day. Talk about pull the pin on Gramma's crazy grenade! Lol. My son, wife and 3 grandbabies live there. Once again, luckily nothing ever touched down. But they all got flooded. Wow! I'm exhausted! This is very odd in my experience. I'm not used to all this severe weather. Barely given the tropics a thought. Soooo not me. :)
Quoting 313. AtHomeInTX:


Hi Gro! Nice to see you too. And everybody! I've been having technical difficulties. My computer has too... :-) Been crazy weather lately. I've been keeping in touch with a friend who used to be on WU (bohonkweatherman) . He was under a tornado warning right before the Brazos busted its banks, or right after? Can't remember but he lives in Hays County out there. But luckily not by the river. He and his are ok. But there's more headed that way now. Then there was a tornado warning right on top of College Station the next day. Talk about pull the pin on Gramma's crazy grenade! Lol. My son, wife and 3 grandbabies live there. Once again, luckily nothing ever touched down. But they all got flooded. Wow! I'm exhausted! This is very odd in my experience. I'm not used to all this severe weather. Barely given the tropics a thought. Soooo not me. :)


Incoming.

Quoting 293. nonblanche:
Nice to see the fighting tapering off. If it must be like cats and dogs, be good natured about it like Mars and Jaguar.

LOL. One of my cats, whose name is Moose, has cerebellar hypoplasia. It just means his back legs don't work right (although he still gets around OK) and that sometimes he gets...well...a little crazy. He's the smallest of my cats, only about 10 pounds. Radar Dog, on the other hand, weighs in at 65 pounds. When Moose is going though one of his crazy periods, he lies in wait for Radar Dog and attacks him when he walks by. He doesn't hurt him, just gives him a swat. You might think Radar Dog could eat Moose as a snack but no, he's as terrified of Moose as he is of thunder. I have to protect him from Moose before he'll go outside to pee. All these years with cats and dogs and I end up with a giant coward dog and a tiny terrorist cat. :-)
It would not surprise me to see a normal Atlantic active hurricane season this year, I'm sticking with 11/7/2 that's including Ana.
Hi All,
I'm just wondering if anyone in here
thinks that line of thunderstorms in Texas
will move all the way thru Houston??????

Taco :o)
Blanco, Blanco River. My appologies. Brazos is the county my son lives in, I think. Yeah. Sorry, been a long week. :)
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:



Incoming.



I'm watching it.
Quoting 315. sar2401:

LOL. One of my cats, whose name is Moose, has cerebellar hypoplasia. It just means his back legs don't work right (although he still gets around OK) and that sometimes he gets...well...a little crazy. He's the smallest of my cats, only about 10 pounds. Radar Dog, on the other hand, weighs in at 65 pounds. When Moose is going though one of his crazy periods, he lies in wait for Radar Dog and attacks him when he walks by. He doesn't hurt him, just gives him a swat. You might think Radar Dog could eat Moose as a snack but no, he's as terrified of Moose as he is of thunder. I have to protect him from Moose before he'll go outside to pee. All these years with cats and dogs and I end up with a giant coward dog and a tiny terrorist cat. :-)

Hey Sar that's funny as He** LOL
and that's from someone with 2 cats right now.
Which I call "Nut-1 and Case-2"

Taco :o)
Quoting 246. JrWeathermanFL:


lol I remember last season Sar joked about a storm detaching from the earth and spinning off into outer space.

Have to remember that as a possibility too..
I remember that now. We really need an actual low doing all sorts of weird dances before the possibility of detaching and heading off to outer space becomes a high probability event. Just models of lows which don't yet exist are always so weird that detaching from the earth just isn't as likely. :-)
Quoting 313. AtHomeInTX:



Hi Gro! Nice to see you too. And everybody! I've been having technical difficulties. My computer has too... :-) Been crazy weather lately. I've been keeping in touch with a friend who used to be on WU (bohonkweatherman) . He was under a tornado warning right before the Brazos busted its banks, or right after? Can't remember but he lives in Hays County out there. But luckily not by the river. He and his are ok. But there's more headed that way now. Then there was a tornado warning right on top of College Station the next day. Talk about pull the pin on Gramma's crazy grenade! Lol. My son, wife and 3 grandbabies live there. Once again, luckily nothing ever touched down. But they all got flooded. Wow! I'm exhausted! This is very odd in my experience. I'm not used to all this severe weather. Barely given the tropics a thought. Soooo not me. :)


I don't comment much anymore, but like coloradobob alluded to before, something is stuck. I never saw a system stay around so long.

Quoting 317. taco2me61:

Hi All,
I'm just wondering if anyone in here
thinks that line of thunderstorms in Texas
will move all the way thru Houston??????

Taco :o)


Hi Taco. This is all I've seen on Houston so far. But it may change.

Tim Heller ‏@HellerWeather 42m42 minutes ago
Prepare for a messy morning. Our FutureTrack shows scattered heavy downpours around #Houston during rush hour.
325. etxwx
From the Texas Tribune:
Disaster Recovery Proposal Revived in Flooding Aftermath

FEMA Gives Texans More Time to Assess Flood Damage

*waves at AtHome* Good to see you! Glad to hear you worked out your technical difficulties and are staying reasonably dry.

From Reuters: Floods in Texas and Oklahoma bringing surprise snakes to homes

We are being invaded by millipedes here in the Pineywoods. (I think that's what they are - they have shorter legs than centipedes) . I guess it's too wet for them outside, they are marching into the house and I was even seeing them in stores today in Jasper. Oh boy.
Quoting 316. stormpetrol:

It would not surprise me to see a normal Atlantic active hurricane season this year, I'm sticking with 11/7/2 that's including Ana.


I'm going to put mine out there too. 14/8/3 and that does include Ana
I also think that the Gulf Coast will get hit this year. I don't know where along
the gulf coast but I'm thinking somewhere in the Gulf Coast States.

Taco :o)
Quoting 323. Grothar:



I don't comment much anymore, but like coloradobob alluded to before, something is stuck. I never saw a system stay around so long.




I know it definitely is strange to everyone it seems. Monday through Thursday, we're finally supposed to get a break, here anyway. I hope that continues for a while. It seems to be stuck in the exact opposite of what it has been for years. Even for an El Nino this is odd.
Quoting 321. taco2me61:
Hey Sar that's funny as He** LOL
and that's from someone with 2 cats right now.
Which I call "Nut-1 and Case-2"
That quote thing still doesn't work right here. Do either of your cats get "crazy eyes"? Moose has kind of light yellow eyes but, when he's going into one of his difficult periods, his eyes actually change to a kind of threatening deep yellow and they get all squinty. It like one of those movies where people who are possessed get those weird eyes. That's when I know I have to start standing guard for Radar Dog. You ought to hear when he gets slugged. You'd think Moose tore out his left eye. What a baby!
Quoting 325. etxwx:
From the Texas Tribune:
Disaster Recovery Proposal Revived in Flooding Aftermath

FEMA Gives Texans More Time to Assess Flood Damage

*waves at AtHome* Good to see you! Glad to hear you worked out your technical difficulties and are staying reasonably dry.

We are being invaded by millipedes here in the Pineywoods. (I think that's what they are - they have shorter legs than centipedes) . I guess it's too wet for them outside, they are marching into the house and I was even seeing them in stores today in Jasper. Oh boy.
And the armies of ants come next. You're going to need about a gross of bug spray.
So what happened with our friend and his earthquake prediction? Was there a giant earthquake in CA this afternoon?

No? Weird. His theory made so much sense...OK, I retched a little when I typed that.
Quoting 324. AtHomeInTX:



Hi Taco. This is all I've seen on Houston so far. But it may change.

Tim Heller ‏@HellerWeather 42m42 minutes ago
Prepare for a messy morning. Our FutureTrack shows scattered heavy downpours around #Houston during rush hour.


Hi AtHome good to see you too.
Thank you I have family there and just don't want to see anymore flooding there
if you know what I mean.....

Taco :o)
Quoting 325. etxwx:

From the Texas Tribune:
Disaster Recovery Proposal Revived in Flooding Aftermath

FEMA Gives Texans More Time to Assess Flood Damage

*waves at AtHome* Good to see you! Glad to hear you worked out your technical difficulties and are staying reasonably dry.

We are being invaded by millipedes here in the Pineywoods. (I think that's what they are - they have shorter legs than centipedes) . I guess it's too wet for them outside, they are marching into the house and I was even seeing them in stores today in Jasper. Oh boy.


Hi etx! :) Orange has earthworms! Mike said the sidewalks outside his store (Walmart) are just covered with them. Lol. They're everywhere! So far my house has only been invaded by dog, who looks up at me as if to say, Silly human, you know I will not soil my paws in all that mud. So it's carry her to a dry spot or bathe her 10 times a day. Lol.
As been the story for quite a few years

334. etxwx
Quoting 329. sar2401:

And the armies of ants come next. You're going to need about a gross of bug spray.


LOL, I just edited my comment to add an article about snakes and gators and ants...oh my!
But no kidding, fire ants in flood water are the worst. And I'm kind of looking for a gator to show up in our pond.
Quoting 328. sar2401:

That quote thing still doesn't work right here. Do either of your cats get "crazy eyes"? Moose has kind of light yellow eyes but, when he's going into one of his difficult periods, his eyes actually change to a kind of threatening deep yellow and they get all squinty. It like one of those movies where people who are possessed get those weird eyes. That's when I know I have to start standing guard for Radar Dog. You ought to hear when he gets slugged. You'd think Moose tore out his left eye. What a baby!

Yes they "Do". That's when I have to go around and pick up pictures they have knocked off the darn walls.
Now the grandboys call them "Tabby and Simba" both are Orange tabby cats and they are brother and sister.
But OMG when they get that Look. There Orange eyes turn that green mean look and I have to be on guard myself because they will gang up on me too..... Great Scott Batman they are Mean sometimes.....
That's why I call them Nutcase 1 and Nutcase 2.....
Quoting 331. taco2me61:



Hi AtHome good to see you too.
Thank you I have family there and just don't want to see anymore flooding there
if you know what I mean.....

Taco :o)


Yes, I know. My husband has been going back and forth to Houston for work a lot lately. He's gotta go back all week next week. Hopefully, that will be dry for everyone.
337. 882MB
Hopefully these features bring more rain then anticipated, The NE Caribbean definitely needs it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF HAITI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE
THE REGION WHICH HELP TO LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BROAD AREA OF ITCZ MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
SO FAR EXPECTED TO BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WHEN TRAILING MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR EARLY MORNING AND DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR...THEN LATER ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...AS THE SHORT TERM WX AND POPS
ALREADY SHOWED INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON SATURDAY...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IF THE WEATHER
UNFOLDS AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN SETTING UP IN RECENT DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION...AND DEPENDING ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...IF NECESSARY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAY TUNED.


fire ants are the worst. that is all. lol
Well if the active era is over, I guess we will look forward to less storms in the Atlantic and less strikes for the U.S. huh.
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:



Incoming.




Yikes.
I live in southeast TX and it looks like we are in for it yet again! Our chief meteorologist Greg Bostwick of KFDM 6 was talking about forecast models not always being right. He said the models were saying this big storm was going to dissipate, and he said "Yeah I think that one is a bit wrong."
Heres a weather question for people here. Is there any kind of normal weather pattern that would result in above average precipitation for the entire lower 48 states? I'm not talking about every place being above average, but just a pattern that would result in above average precip for most places around the country. Because it always seems like there are always large areas that are drier or wetter than average, at least on a short-term basis.
Brian,

I'm not sure how it compares with tropical rainfall. When all this started up, I kept hearing the people on the weather channel commenting, "and we don't even have a system." I don't think I've ever heard of most of the state having saturated ground all at once. In my personal experience, I think it was Claudette? in 79, that flooded this county worse than anything I've seen before or since. I lived here for 6 months that year between 3 years in Germany and 2 in El Paso. Still the only thing ever brought flooding up to my parent's house. But she was a tropical storm. Then in 94 the remnants of EPAC Rosa parked on top of us for about a week and royally flooded everything. I'm not looking forward to anything from either basin making it's way to Texas this year. Anywhere would be bad this year. As they have been repeating around here. It's got nowhere to go.

The hurricanes have dropped a lot of rain fast. But then moved on. Rita apparently wiped out a 15 inch deficit in Beaumont in minutes. I couldn't tell rainfall from surge flooding with Ike, as we were on the east side of that storm. But up in Longview Ike rained enough to flood the motel parking lot and first floor where we staying. Not to mention knocked out the lights and brought trees down. Even Humberto dropped a whole lot of rain quick.
Quoting 341. Stormchaser121:

I live in southeast TX and it looks like we are in for it yet again! Our chief meteorologist Greg Bostwick of KFDM 6 was talking about forecast models not always being right. He said the models were saying this big storm was going to dissipate, and he said "Yeah I think that one is a bit wrong."


UGH! Lovely. :/ Well, we got surprised, what, yesterday morning?
345. vis0

Quoting 315. sar2401:

LOL. One of my cats, whose name is Moose, has cerebellar hypoplasia. It just means his back legs don't work right (although he still gets around OK) and that sometimes he gets...well...a little crazy. He's the smallest of my cats, only about 10 pounds. Radar Dog, on the other hand, weighs in at 65 pounds. When Moose is going though one of his crazy periods, he lies in wait for Radar Dog and attacks him when he walks by. He doesn't hurt him, just gives him a swat. You might think Radar Dog could eat Moose as a snack but no, he's as terrified of Moose as he is of thunder. I have to protect him from Moose before he'll go outside to pee. All these years with cats and dogs and I end up with a giant coward dog and a tiny terrorist cat. :-)
Λ^Radar® is no coward he's wise to anything that has stealth abilities, as something to avoid as its dangerous as it can get you when least expected. Be it "all of a sudden" thunder-lighting or a cat with well developed sensory as to know when Radar is to pass by.

 Now who do i send my veterinary psychiatry bill to?
 Sincerely
 Siggy
Quoting 342. nwobilderburg:

Heres a weather question for people here. Is there any kind of normal weather pattern that would result in above average precipitation for the entire lower 48 states? I'm not talking about every place being above average, but just a pattern that would result in above average precip for most places around the country. Because it always seems like there are always large areas that are drier or wetter than average, at least on a short-term basis.


What someone could do is analyze every year like this and see which year has the lowest average deviation from the average for all states. I'm curious what that year would be and how close to average most states were. That's a real good question nwobilderburg. Below is a candidate for the year with the greatest deviations from average....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 1125 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GRAND PRAIRIE...MANSFIELD...CEDAR HILL...
HALTOM CITY...BURLESON...CLEBURNE...MIDLOTHIAN...CROWLEY...FOREST
HILL...RICHLAND HILLS...KENNEDALE...EVERMAN...KEENE...JOSHUA...
ALVARADO...RENDON...VENUS AND PANTEGO.
It is a good question nwo. Thank goodness Brian's brain is still functioning at this hour. I can't even figure Texas out.

James, hate to see that again. :(
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL KENDALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 1145 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...AND SATURATED SOILS ALONG
WITH STANDING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY CREEK BEDS WILL RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING WITH AS LITTLE AS 1 INCH OF RAIN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOERNE...KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING
SPRINGS...BLANCO...BERTRAM...ROUND MOUNTAIN...BUCHANAN DAM...CANYON
LAKE DAM...LEANDER...GAINESVILLE...LAKEWAY...LAGO VISTA...FAIR OAKS
RANCH...CANYON LAKE...GRANITE SHOALS...BULVERDE AND BEE CAVE.
NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 23m23 minutes ago
Line of strong/severe storms w/heavy rains shows no signs of weakening as it heads toward SE TX.#txwx #houwx #bcswx

352. 882MB
Quoting 349. jamesrainier:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL KENDALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 1145 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...AND SATURATED SOILS ALONG
WITH STANDING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY CREEK BEDS WILL RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING WITH AS LITTLE AS 1 INCH OF RAIN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOERNE...KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING
SPRINGS...BLANCO...BERTRAM...ROUND MOUNTAIN...BUCHANAN DAM...CANYON
LAKE DAM...LEANDER...GAINESVILLE...LAKEWAY...LAGO VISTA...FAIR OAKS
RANCH...CANYON LAKE...GRANITE SHOALS...BULVERDE AND BEE CAVE.


That is not good news, seriously Texas doesn't seem to get a break. If only all that rain that has fallen in this past month and is falling today, would of fell in California or the NE Caribbean would of been better news.
Quoting 344. AtHomeInTX:



UGH! Lovely. :/ Well, we got surprised, what, yesterday morning?
That is correct. With all these lows coming in, I wonder what that means for us this hurricane season.
Quoting 354. Stormchaser121:

That is correct. With all these lows coming in, I wonder what that means for us this hurricane season.


Haven't even gotten that far yet, Chaser. Did read the NHC update yesterday. But the models haven't shown anything in our neighborhood. As usual, be prepared. Nino or not.
btw it appears that the ULL in the W Atlantic is now starting to move or drift E-NE
I think that the wind shear will not be as strong over our W/NW Caribbean SE/E GOM Florida and SEUS coast storm system as what some models suggest might hamper with development
Chaser,

This is what stuck out as pertaining to our area possibly this year. But it doesn't mean storms can't happen anywhere in the basin. Doesn't mean they will. Just something I haven't seen mentioned in the El Nino talk before. We all should be prepared. I have definitely found my flashlight early this season. :) Someone may have discussed this here. If so, my apologies.

From NHC discussion

From their discussion today...

In contrast to the MDR, we often see storms occurring in a belt extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the MDR during El Niño years, in association with reduced vertical wind shear across the region (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996). The CFS model predicts the vertical wind shear in this belt to be weaker than average during ASO 2015, which could allow activity near the higher end of the predicted ranges.

Never thought I would say this,this soon. But I hope the rain slows down in Texas.

The flooding is just crazy there.

BB - Thanks for today's arcticles...
Quoting 350. BaltimoreBrian:

This just in...

!!! Billions over budget. Two years after deadline. What's gone wrong for the 'clean coal' project that's supposed to save an industry?

Thanks, Brian. Lots of topics touched upon in this article, not the least of which is how to pay for clean coal tech., and the inevitable politics surrounding that.
most of 00Z GFS and CMC/GEM are out

still show our system

this run
GFS is quicker on movement and slower on development
CMC/GEM is slower on movement and quicker on development

I do think both models are playing shear just a slight bit high IMHO
and downplaying development speed

anyway awaiting the ensembles
and Euro and NAVGEM
Quoting 339. HurricaneAndre:

Well if the active era is over, I guess we will look forward to less storms in the Atlantic and less strikes for the U.S. huh.


You're half-right. Fewer storms does not imply fewer US hits.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1203 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1131 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1126 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1119 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1116 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1105 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
Quoting 364. Patrap:



I-35 is getting nailed about now. DFW, Waco, Round Rock, Austin, San Marcos, New Braunfels, San Antonio, all the way over to Piedras Negras. Lots of people getting a soaking.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 1251 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 1 TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN ARE FALLING WITH THE INITIAL LINE...WHICH IS GENERALLY
OCCURRING IN A 30 MINUTE TO 1 HOUR PERIOD. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY FROM NEAR SCHERTZ TO SAN MARCOS TO MUCH
OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...NEW BRAUNFELS...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...
PFLUGERVILLE...SAN MARCOS...SEGUIN...TAYLOR...LOCKHART...ELGIN...
LULING...GRANGER...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ANDERSON MILL...WINDEMERE...
SERENADA...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...SCHERTZ AND KYLE.
Quoting 359. AtHomeInTX:

Chaser,

This is what stuck out as pertaining to our area possibly this year. But it doesn't mean storms can't happen anywhere in the basin. Doesn't mean they will. Just something I haven't seen mentioned in the El Nino talk before. We all should be prepared. I have definitely found my flashlight early this season. :) Someone may have discussed this here. If so, my apologies.

From NHC discussion

From their discussion today...

In contrast to the MDR, we often see storms occurring in a belt extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the MDR during El Niño years, in association with reduced vertical wind shear across the region (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996). The CFS model predicts the vertical wind shear in this belt to be weaker than average during ASO 2015, which could allow activity near the higher end of the predicted ranges.


Very interesting...
Quoting 362. wunderkidcayman:

most of 00Z GFS and CMC/GEM are out

still show our system

this run
GFS is quicker on movement and slower on development
CMC/GEM is slower on movement and quicker on development

I do think both models are playing shear just a slight bit high IMHO
and downplaying development speed

anyway awaiting the ensembles
and Euro and NAVGEM


so far the ensembles have a better handle on the system
and it also brings down the shear a bit compared to the operational GFS
371. vis0
Here a cooling looking page, ARL Air Resource Laboratory. (If one is in the Md. area, read its seminar alert June 2-4 2015)(i can't really use am on too sow of a connection, interest to me is how it connects MODELs to it, it has )
btw this tiny strong swirl with itty bitty spots of convection kinda reminds me of TS Marco



also
confirmed ULL moving ENE

low with small tight LLC moving N still expected to dissipate
2nd low broader loose and weak LLC moving NW still expected to dissipate

ULL should open up into upper trof as it move E ward

upper level trof in E GOM and NW Caribbean expected to dissipate
Quoting 362. wunderkidcayman:

most of 00Z GFS and CMC/GEM are out

still show our system

this run
GFS is quicker on movement and slower on development
CMC/GEM is slower on movement and quicker on development

I do think both models are playing shear just a slight bit high IMHO
and downplaying development speed

anyway awaiting the ensembles
and Euro and NAVGEM
Quoting 370. wunderkidcayman:



so far the ensembles have a better handle on the system
and it also brings down the shear a bit compared to the operational GFS


Euro still on board


found this interesting chart for a reservoir in Central Texas. Last time it got full was more than 55 years ago.
Quoting 346. BaltimoreBrian:



What someone could do is analyze every year like this and see which year has the lowest average deviation from the average for all states. I'm curious what that year would be and how close to average most states were. That's a real good question nwobilderburg. Below is a candidate for the year with the greatest deviations from average....




I wasnt really into weather back then, but 2011 was a crazy year, looking back on it.
Lots of rescues occurring - these current Flash Flood Warnings are all from NWS-Fort Worth:

324 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR
DALLAS COUNTY
...

AT 321 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS DOWNTOWN DALLAS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF DALLAS COUNTY...INCLUDING
GARLAND AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS ROADS NOW DANGEROUS AND
IMPASSIBLE. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE OCCURRING. TRAVEL HAS
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW LYING AREA
NEAR A CREEK OR STREAM BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
WATERS RISE TO YOUR LOCATION.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DALLAS...GARLAND...MESQUITE...RICHARDSON...ROWLET T...DESOTO...CEDAR
HILL...WYLIE...DUNCANVILLE...LANCASTER...BALCH SPRINGS...UNIVERSITY
PARK...SACHSE...SEAGOVILLE...GLENN HEIGHTS...HIGHLAND PARK...
HUTCHINS...SUNNYVALE...WILMER AND OVILLA.


316 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
..

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 312 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS WESTERN DALLAS AND EASTERN
TARRANT COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED THREE TO FIVE INCHES
OF RAIN ALREADY. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS ROADS NOW
DANGEROUS AND IMPASSIBLE. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE
OCCURRING.
TRAVEL HAS BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE
IN A LOW LYING AREA NEAR A CREEK OR STREAM BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND SHOULD WATERS RISE TO YOUR LOCATION.


207 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 203 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT
COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AND SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES FROM PEOPLE
IN VEHICLES
. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GRAND PRAIRIE...MANSFIELD...CEDAR HILL...
HALTOM CITY...BURLESON...CLEBURNE...MIDLOTHIAN...CROWLEY. ..FOREST
HILL...RICHLAND HILLS...KENNEDALE...EVERMAN...KEENE...JOSHUA...
ALVARADO...RENDON...VENUS AND PANTEGO.
From NWS-Fort Worth, lots of warnings about which areas to avoid on their twitter feed. This is their latest:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO ALLEN

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 417 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH SUNRISE. SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING NEAR DUCK CREEK IN
GARLAND. SPRING CREEK AND ROWLETT CREEK ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO
ALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS ROADS NOW
DANGEROUS AND IMPASSIBLE. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE
OCCURRING. TRAVEL HAS BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE
IN A LOW LYING AREA NEAR A CREEK OR STREAM BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND SHOULD WATERS RISE TO YOUR LOCATION.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DALLAS...PLANO...GARLAND...MESQUITE...RICHARDSON.. .ALLEN...
ROWLETT...WYLIE...SACHSE...MURPHY...FAIRVIEW...LUC AS...SUNNYVALE...
PARKER AND ST. PAUL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 0400 AM Friday the stage was 37.76 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 43 feet
by Friday evening then begin falling but remain above flood stage.
* At 42 feet, The S.L. & S.W. Railroad and Santa Fe railroad bridges
in South Dallas flood.


Those poor people in TX and OK. Just incredible how much rain has fallen there lately.


Ellen Bryan ‏@EllenBryanNBC5 29m29 minutes ago

@omgfloofy @NBCDFW @NBCDFWWeather We saw someone drive right by police and into the water.

Serious flooding is now occurring across parts of the greater DFW Metroplex. 3 to 5 inches of rain have already fallen during the last few hours where the yellow and orange colors are shown. Over 6 inches of rain have occurred where red and white colors are shown. A flash flood emergency has been issued for the Garland area and points north to the city of Allen. Multiple roads are closed or impassible and numerous high water rescues have occurred. This is a dangerous situation. Do not drive through flooded waters. Turn around don't drown!

CBSDFW ‏@CBSDFW 25m25 minutes ago

.@ScottPadgettCBS: Radar estimates up to seven inches of rain has fallen in some areas overnight.
CBSDFW ‏@CBSDFW 38m38 minutes ago

#BREAKING: @DARTAlerts: A freight train has derailed near CentrePort station. TRE service will be diverted to bus bridges

Quoting 346. BaltimoreBrian:



What someone could do is analyze every year like this and see which year has the lowest average deviation from the average for all states. I'm curious what that year would be and how close to average most states were. That's a real good question nwobilderburg. Below is a candidate for the year with the greatest deviations from average....




That doesn't sound too hard (but tedious, yes), all you have to do is calculate the variance...
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Andres's intensification trend appears to have ceased for the
moment. Infrared satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone is
trying to develop a banded-eye structure, but the overall pattern
really hasn't improved much since the last advisory. In fact, the
Dvorak final-T number from TAFB decreased to 3.5, and remained at
3.5 from SAB, so the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt.

The storm is moving a little slower to the west-northwest, or 295/8
kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. A slight weakness in the
ridge should allow Andres to move northwestward later today through
Saturday night. The ridge is forecast to rebuild, however, and the
cyclone will likely move west-northwestward and then westward on
days 3-5. There has been no apparent shift in the latest track
guidance as there had been in previous cycles, and therefore the
updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the
previous one.

The SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that a modest amount of north-
northeasterly shear is affecting Andres, which could be the reason
for the temporary hiatus in strengthening. SHIPS indicates that
the current level of shear should continue for the next 24 hours,
and after that the thermodynamic environment becomes gradually less
favorable for significant strengthening. Due to these less-than-
ideal conditions, the latest intensity guidance shows Andres peaking
at a lower intensity compared to previous cycles, and the updated
NHC intensity forecast has therefore been lowered a bit. Even with
this adjustment, however, the official forecast is still higher
than most of the models, especially at 48 hours.
Morning all. The bit with the prez was pretty cool ... lol ... Andres is looking pretty good this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane Andres later today.

I also notice some cloudiness over the eastern CAR associated I assume with the approaching Twave. Hopefully those islands will get some rain from it.

Have a super Friday!
Quoting 202. LargoFl:

every run is different although always around florida..what changes is east or gulf coast Florida early on..
Quoting 203. hurricanewatcher61:

Correct, so I guess will know more by the end of next week sometime.
This looks like the low that was supposed to pass over the Bahamas and hit the Carolinas. [According to last week's forecast, anyway...] however a track over FL makes more sense, at least climatologically.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 6m6 minutes ago

MT@malkoff Overnight: Swift Water rescues all over DFW.
Quoting 269. wartsttocs:




I would love a link to that. It would be useful whenever someone tries to cite him as a credible person.
AC is making up stories again.
397. yoboi
Quoting 330. islander44:

So what happened with our friend and his earthquake prediction? Was there a giant earthquake in CA this afternoon?

No? Weird. His theory made so much sense...OK, I retched a little when I typed that.


Another failed prediction...The list is long..
NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 19m19 minutes ago

#Waco has had 25 consecutive days with rain (May 5-29). The previous record was 20 days in the spring of 1957.
Good Morning everyone..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 15m15 minutes ago

@RyanMaue @EricBlake12 Getting pumped on ECMWF Deja Ana. would be pattern fit week 2

400. TXF
Quoting 375. nwobilderburg:



found this interesting chart for a reservoir in Central Texas. Last time it got full was more than 55 years ago.


OC Fisher, that lake and few others in the area are much more for flood control than they are for water storage. There are also a few lakes in that part of the stat that were designed to stop brackish water from contaminating lakes down stream.
Quoting 269. wartsttocs:
I would love a link to that. It would be useful whenever someone tries to cite him as a credible person.
Quoting 396. NativeSun:

AC is making up stories again.
Not so much. Here you go:

Quoting 401. Neapolitan:

Not so much. Here you go:



Thanks, Nea
NBC has a pretty good page with a number of articles, graphics and videos about the recent flooding. There is a scary video filmed on a cell phone from the second floor as the Blanco River rushed into the home.

Texas Floods: Dozens Rescued as State Struggles With Record Rain

The Blanco River video is under the heading 'Viral Video: Texas Flood Came Into Home 'Like a Freight Train''
Quoting 381. jamesrainier:

413 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 0400 AM Friday the stage was 37.76 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 43 feet
by Friday evening then begin falling but remain above flood stage.
* At 42 feet, The S.L. & S.W. Railroad and Santa Fe railroad bridges
in South Dallas flood.


Quoting 401. Neapolitan:

Not so much. Here you go:


Among the many things Bastardi appears not to comprehend is the difference between control and influence.

But then, he can't read a simple graph so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Creeks/rivers in north-central Texas (Dallas area) have risen very quickly:



The morning snip from the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FIRST PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AS TYPICAL OF
RAINY SEASON. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS POISED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TUESDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURGING PWAT
VALUES AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLOOD
RISK.

and from Key West NWS...

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING ON THEIR LAST COUPLE OF RUNS AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. PWAT ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH IT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND PROBABLY INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT STILL COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY.
GFS ENS remain consistent on the SE Gulf and makes sense given the upper low to its NW. Either way next week looks wet across FL. Euro is showing 3" to 5" across most of C FL during the Monday thru Friday timeframe.

Later work calls..





Rainy Season getting underway across FL. We need it here.

Orlando
412. yoboi
Quoting 339. HurricaneAndre:

Well if the active era is over, I guess we will look forward to less storms in the Atlantic and less strikes for the U.S. huh.


The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
414. jpsb
Quoting 382. tampabaymatt:

Those poor people in TX and OK. Just incredible how much rain has fallen there lately.


Last week here in Galveston county we got 7 inches of rain in an hour, 7.5" in one hour! Wow.
And an excerpt from the Melbourne NWS Discussion...

MON-THU...
A CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
REINFORCE THE ATLC RIDGE...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE ERLY WAVE INTO
THE SE GOMEX. GFS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WETTER PATTERN AS THE
REINFORCED RIDGE WOULD TEND TO DEFLECT THE ERLY WAVE INTO THE
GOMEX...ALLOWING FL TO GAIN IT`S ASCENDING FLANK. ECMWF MODEL
SSUGGESTS A CLOSED SFC LOW WILL DVLP AND OUT OF THE WAVE AND LIFT NE
ACRS S FL AND THE NRN BAHAMAS...A PATTERN THAT ALSO WOULD INCREASED
PRECIP FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT WOULD PREVAIL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF SUCH A SYSTEM WOULD PUSH THE WAVE`S DEEP LYR MOISTURE
ACRS THE STATE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD THRU MIDWEEK...BUT WILL HOLD MAX
POPS AT 50PCT FOR NOW AS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHILE SIMILAR IN
RESULTS...DO ARRIVE AT THEM BY VERY DIFFERNT MANNERS.
Quoting 412. yoboi:



The active era should be over when the AMO goes negative....For years many have been saying higher activity was caused by higher CO2 levels...With CO2 levels rising and activity declining...Well I think you get the the point..

liar
Quoting 397. yoboi:



Another failed prediction...The list is long..


Considering that it was made by a doomsday nutter with no scientific credibility, I don't think anyone but the crazies thought there would be an earthquake. :P
Quoting 401. Neapolitan:

Not so much. Here you go:




The bible says it so it must be true!

Strangely, there's no mention of electricity, or bacteria, or viruses, or computers, or physics, or...

You know, it's almost like some moldy old book of myths from 2000+ years ago has no relevance to modern science.

Seriously, why do people even listen to him anymore.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

It's a good restaurant with a great view. It's still there, and I think it's going on 50 years now. The Sonoma coast is beautiful on those rare days when the sun is out and the wind's not blowing. When the fog rolls in and you get 25 mph wind on top of 50 degree temperatures, it can be pretty miserable. About the only time you can really depend on sun is October. It's one of the few times it can get to 80 degrees and you can really sweat if you're overdressed.

My tomatoes have now reached six feet tall. There are so many on every plant it's pulling over the the tomato cages. I've got tons of strawberries and the cukes will crawl through the back door if I don't beat them down every day. It's the greenest I've ever seen it here in the face of highs of 90 or more every day the last couple of weeks. I swear, with enough rain, almost anything will get to humongous size in Alabama.


In May and June in the mid 1980s my Tallahassee garden was great. But the heat in July and August was just too much and I could not get tomatoes or corn after early August, and squash or lima beans after mid August. Cantaloupes had disease problems and the sandy soul harbored nematodes.. I don't think heat was the issue with melons Watermelons, peppers, Jerusalem artichokes, sweetpotatos and eggplant did fine. Surprisingly I could get good peas and broccoli and lettuce well into June, Early July is when I start having problems with them here in DC. Fall was tough, the combination of high temperatures and short days ruined quality of many things, in particular broccoli looked okay but tasted terrible in late November when it was ready in 1985. December freezes then ruined it and I didn't try again. But things that I try to get in DC by the first of July were ready in late May in Tallahassee, in particular tomatoes and corn.
Canadian takes it away from florida........................................... ..................