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Tropical Storm Andrea hits Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:19 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall near 5:40 pm EDT in the Big Bend region of Florida as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Andrea had a busy day Thursday in Florida, dumping heavy rains, spawning ten tornadoes, and bringing a storm surge of up to 4.5' to the coast. While the Hurricane Hunters did measure sustained winds of 65 mph over the ocean shortly before landfall, very few land stations recorded sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, 39 mph. Here are some of the higher winds measured at coastal stations:

A personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola had sustained winds of 46 mph at 10 am EDT.
Cedar Key had sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, at 3:43 pm EDT.
Punta Gorda had sustained winds of 37, gusting to 58, at 1:04 pm EDT.
St. Petersburg topped out at 34 mph, gusting to 48 mph, at 10:23 am EDT.

Two sets of tornadic rain bands moved through West Florida on Thursday, one between 2 am and 5 am, and the other between 10 am and 3 pm, spawning a total of five suspected tornadoes. The first band produced two EF-0 tornadoes: one with 75 mph winds that hit Myakka City, damaging 3 homes and 10 other buildings, and one with 80 mph winds that cut throughout the heart of Sun City, causing minor damage. NWS damage surveys will be occurring Friday in Fort Myers, Venice, Clearwater, and Gulfport to check out the damage swaths of the other three suspected tornadoes.

The Florida East Coast was hit by five suspected tornadoes. Only one caused an injury, a tornado that hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT. Two other tornadoes were reported in Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and two more were reported in coastal areas near the Georgia border.

Here are the highest storm surge values as of 7:00 pm EDT:

3.2' at Tampa (at McKay Bay Entrance)
2.5' at Clearwater Beach (near St. Petersburg)
4.5' at Cedar Key


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 1pm EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013. At the time, Andrea had top winds of 60 mph and was 5.7 hours away from landfall in Florida's Big Bend. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. NASA animation of Andrea satellite images. More cool NASA images of Andrea are here.

The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer
Andrea's formation in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been fifteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to 6 in the 19-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken on June 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 92L in the Central Atlantic headed towards the Lesser Antilles
Satellite images show that a large and unusually well-organized tropical wave for so early in the season has developed in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has a modest degree of spin and heavy thunderstorms. NHC designated this system 92L Thursday afternoon. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is ripping up the thunderstorms in 92L as they form, though, and wind shear is predicted to increase to 30 - 40 knots Thursday night through Monday, making development unlikely. The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night.

Jeff Masters
Street Flooding from Andrea
Street Flooding from Andrea
Tropical Storm Andrea dumps rains in Treasure Island/St. Pete Beach, Fla., leaves street flooding behind.
Surf's Up!
Surf's Up!
Tropical Storm Andrea churns things up at Clearwater Beach, Fla.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Chasing Oklahoma: Too Dangerous for One Team?

By: Sean Breslin
Published: June 5, 2013


Storm chasing remains a serious business for Roger Hill following a deadly string of Plains tornadoes.

The leader of Silver Lining Tours, Hill takes vans full of eager weather enthusiasts on week-long trips to capture twisters, and from April through July, the caravan is jam-packed. A day before the deadly EF5 tornado hit El Reno, Okla., Hill wrapped up his latest chase tour -- one that ended in Oklahoma.

It might end up being the last time he ever takes a group to that state to look for tornadoes.

"We may just abandon that area altogether," said Hill, wary of a situation similar to the one that occurred Friday afternoon. The tornado that killed four storm chasers and injured several others behaved erratically before taking a turn into an area chasers thought was a safe distance from the storm.

(MORE: Why Storm Chasing is So Critical)


WEATHER.COM PHOTO
Roger Hill chats with Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Bettes in Grover, Colo. during the 2011 Tornado Hunt.

One of the chasers that died was Tim Samaras, Hill's next-door neighbor in Colorado. Hill said he's still in shock and disbelief about the tragedy, confirming Samaras' reputation for being one of the safest chasers in the field.
"Something horrendously wrong had to happen for them to get caught in that," added Hill.

Even in the aftermath of deaths that floored the weather community, Hill said there have been no cancellations of future storm chasing tours, mostly because he hasn't fielded a single phone call from anyone who wants to cancel his or her trip. Quite the opposite has happened, in fact -- Hill said the recent tornadoes have actually stirred more interest in his tours than normal.

He believes this is because of the track record of the Silver Lining Tours. They're well-known for spotting scores of tornadoes every year, but also because their safety guidelines keep visitors at ease while witnessing one of the most violent natural phenomena on the planet.

The tour didn't always abide by as many rules as it does in 2013, but when one group was nearly caught in the Joplin tornado, many more precautions were added to Hill's outings. On May 22, 2011, the group made a routine rest stop when a storm re-developed that would eventually spawn the monster EF5 tornado that would rip through Joplin, Mo., killing more than 160 people. Hill's caravan was just blocks from the twister.

"That's as close as I ever want to be (to a tornado)," Hill said.

(MORE: El Reno Tornado Now the Widest Twister on Record)

Since that close call, Hill implemented rules that combat both challenges faced during the Joplin tornado. His team will never chase in a city setting again, and if a tornado is shielded by rain -- "rain-wrapped," as meteorologists call it -- they will flee the area.

Combining those guidelines with previously-enforced rules to keep a safe distance and plot several escape routes if a tornado begins to close in or change direction, and Hill believes his tours can keep a spotless track record of safety with the guests.

Even if he never chases in Oklahoma again.



Thanks, Dr. Masters.
CMC 240HR off N FL??
Thanks Dr. M.

Thanks Dr. M.

I appreciate the numerous updates!
Thanks Doc!




Gulfport Fl (Near St. Pete)
From Wtsp.com
Thanks Dr Masters.
Thanks Dr. M.
10. MTWX
Andrea is causing flooding over here too now. The circulation has stalled out the front approaching from the west causing significant flash flooding in my area...

... A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 745 PM CDT for
southern Lowndes County...

At 618 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
detect thunderstorms producing very heavy rain near Bent Oak... or 9
miles southwest of Columbus. The storms were nearly stationary.
Estimated radar rainfall amounts... on the order of two to four
inches... have occurred in the past two hours.

Very heavy rainfall will continue over the warned area for the next
hour. With an additional one inch possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where water covers the roadway. When encountering flooded roads
make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown

Link
Thanks Dr. Masters
The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night.

Would be so good!
Andrea has fizzled over New Smyrna Beach today, thank goodness. Decent skies, a little blustery, but not a bad evening! Tomorrow we're down to 40% chance of precipitation. Too bad I don't have a tennis game scheduled.
14. MZT
Been off and on drizzle all day in Charlotte, but looks like the first outer rain band from Andrea is about to slide over.
Earlier picture from The Sunshine Skyway closed. From myfoxtampa.com


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
CMC 240HR off N FL??
Is that from 92L?
My New Blog
Andrea Makes Landfall ; Invest 92L No Threat ; June TC Outlook

Check it out, if you're Interested :)
with ANDREA peaking of 65mph that makes ANDREA the 2nd strongest june storm on record follow by ARLENE in 2005 wish peaking at 70mph so ANDREA is all most following ARLENE foot steps has far has wind speeds gos not too far off this all so marks the 1st time in a long time since 2005 that june had a name storm peaking at 65mph



Here's a detailed report on the tornado damage today in WPB
Link
Quoting nash36:
The air outside has that "feeling" of an approaching tropical system. I felt the same thing when Frances and Jeanne were getting closer. Thankfully, this will be nothing like those two systems.
Had that here yesterday. We still have the overcast today, but getting back to a more regular "June in the tropics" feel this afternoon...

Quoting StormJunkie:


I hear ya. I'm on third. People say it's better than second, but I'm not convinced. Only good thing about it is I don't have to get up to see the 00z runs...lol

Evening Baha, K8, nc, Dak and everyone else.
Hey, there... talking about second shift... lol... sounds like us....

Looks like you guys might get some first hand action with Andrea....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



92L up too 10%
Wow...will things seemed to escalate today...

First we had Andrea strengthen more than expected...and then 92L really snuck up on me and surprised me....

Quoting Tazmanian:
with ANDREA peaking of 65mph that makes ANDREA the 2nd strongest june storm on record follow by ARLENE in 2005 wish peck at 70mph so ANDREA is all most following ARLENE foot steps has far has wind speeds gos not too far off this all so marks the 1st time in a long time since 2005 that june had a name storm peaking at 65mph





What's a 'wish peck'?
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



92L up too 10%

wow. Really NHC? Now you up it? LOL A little late there.
Quoting Dakster:


What's a 'wish peck'?



which peaked
Quoting MTWX:
Andrea is causing flooding over here too now. The circulation has stalled out the front approaching from the west causing significant flash flooding in my area...

... A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 745 PM CDT for
southern Lowndes County...

At 618 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
detect thunderstorms producing very heavy rain near Bent Oak... or 9
miles southwest of Columbus. The storms were nearly stationary.
Estimated radar rainfall amounts... on the order of two to four
inches... have occurred in the past two hours.

Very heavy rainfall will continue over the warned area for the next
hour. With an additional one inch possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where water covers the roadway. When encountering flooded roads
make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown

I'm assuming that's Lowndes County GA? Whoever Lowndes was, he must have been famous, rich, or both, since there's a Lowndes County in Alabama and Mississippi as well.
92L went up to 10%
Been rockin all day here. Just went back under a severe thunderstorm warning. Some reports from earlier.

06/06/2013 0633 PM

7 miles N of Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by trained spotter.


06/06/2013 0410 PM

Orange, Orange County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by law enforcement.


Orange pd reports lots of pea size hail.

Bad Joke. I know... xD
ANDREA most have been takeing a peak at the 2005 season cant wait too see what happens the rest of the season
18Z GFDL Ensembles re-intensify off the NE Coast








Seems to have backed off on the rain though


Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Wow...will things seemed to escalate today...

First we had Andrea strengthen more than expected...and then 92L really snuck up on me and surprised me....


lol Nevermind. Reading your blog from today, right now xD
Quoting TylerStanfield:

wow. Really NHC? Now you up it? LOL A little late there.

Wait...didn't we just go through this routine with another storm lately? :-)
Quoting K8eCane:



which peaked


Thanks google translator does not do Taz to English.

You know I like your posts Taz...
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks google translator does not do Taz to English.

You know I like your posts Taz...



thank you
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks google translator does not do Taz to English.

You know I like your posts Taz...


Been doing this a long time and Taz is awesome! Love u Taz
Quoting Tazmanian:
with ANDREA peaking of 65mph that makes ANDREA the 2nd strongest june storm on record follow by ARLENE in 2005 wish peck at 70mph so ANDREA is all most following ARLENE foot steps has far has wind speeds gos not too far off this all so marks the 1st time in a long time since 2005 that june had a name storm peaking at 65mph


Hurricane Audrey is the strongest June tropical cyclone on record. It was a Category 4 with winds of 145 mph.



Alex 2010 ties Audrey for minimum barometric pressure as well.
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



92L up too 10%
They did need to give it a little chance, even if only as a cynical CYA move....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Wow...will things seemed to escalate today...

First we had Andrea strengthen more than expected...and then 92L really snuck up on me and surprised me....

We've been eying that wave since it splashed down. It has always had a vigorous presentation, which is IMO partly why it's as far north as it is ...

Quoting Dakster:


What's a 'wish peck'?
[takes out fish and smacks Daks with it] And be glad it was only a yellowtail snapper, not a grouper!

Quoting TylerStanfield:

Are you going to start doing your blogs again NC? I would like it if you did. :)
-HurricaneDean07

I have been doing them every day...I did one at 2 AM and another at lunchtime today....

I'll be doing yet another late this evening/early AM depending on exactly how long it takes to prepare it...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that from 92L?

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Been rockin all day here. Just went back under a severe thunderstorm warning. Some reports from earlier.

06/06/2013 0633 PM

7 miles N of Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by trained spotter.


06/06/2013 0410 PM

Orange, Orange County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by law enforcement.


Orange pd reports lots of pea size hail.

You stay safe there... I was eying that line of storms earlier and thinking it looks gnarly...
Quoting K8eCane:


Been doing this a long time and Taz is awesome! Love u Taz




i love you two
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



92L up too 10%
If the NHC knows this why won't they just classify it?.Sure it's getting sheared to death but they should at least give it a chance.
Andrea weakens to 50mph
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I have been doing them every day...I did one at 2 AM and another at lunchtime today....

I'll be doing yet another late this evening/early AM depending on exactly how long it takes to prepare it...

Great to hear, They're always very in-depth, That's what I like about them.
Quoting sar2401:

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
I'm asking because it said 240 hours out..
Quoting washingtonian115:
If the NHC knows this why won't they just classify it?.Sure it's getting sheared to death but they should at least give it a chance.

They're just teasing us at what might've been ;)
Quoting CaribBoy:
92L went up to 10%


O_o...I will fall out of my chair if that thing every becomes BARRY....

My thoughts on the tropical wave as of 2 AM (from my blog post)....

"Tropical midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands still seems to be enhanced by low-latitude eastern Atlantic upper ridging. However it will be entering a jet of shearing upper westerlies on the north side of the low-latitude upper ridging and in advance of upper trough."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane Audrey is the strongest June tropical cyclone on record. It was a Category 4 with winds of 145 mph.



Alex 2010 ties Audrey for minimum barometric pressure as well.




ok thanks but i was olny talking about TS since its been like 2005 from the last time we had a TS in june with 65 mph
Dear Mr Masters.
The headline The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer.

is just hype.
The season is June 1st.
Had 15 storms formed in May,over 19 years,ok you would be spot on.
But really?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Andrea weakens to 50mph

I would assume so according to satellite appearance.
-HurricaneDean07
Thanks Dr. Masters. Enjoy the blog posts and comments.
Quoting Tazmanian:




ok thanks but i was olny talking about TS since its been like 2005 from the last time we had a TS in june with 65 mph

You forgot Arlene (2011) my friend :)
54. SLU
Is the NHC admitting that 92L actually was a tropical storm today?

SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...
55. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:

I'm assuming that's Lowndes County GA? Whoever Lowndes was, he must have been famous, rich, or both, since there's a Lowndes County in Alabama and Mississippi as well.


Mississippi...
Quoting BahaHurican:
They did need to give it a little chance, even if only as a cynical CYA move....
We've been eying that wave since it splashed down. It has always had a vigorous presentation, which is IMO partly why it's as far north as it is ...

[takes out fish and smacks Daks with it] And be glad it was only a red snapper, not a grouper!



Square grouper?

PM Sent...
Dr was replaced with Mr, on purpose.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


O_o...I will fall out of my chair if that thing every becomes BARRY....

My thoughts on the tropical wave as of 2 AM (from my blog post)....

"Tropical midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands still seems to be enhanced by low-latitude eastern Atlantic upper ridging. However it will be entering a jet of shearing upper westerlies on the north side of the low-latitude upper ridging and in advance of upper trough."

It probably was this morning, and was likely a tropical depression two days before that. I've been tracking it consistently since it left the coast of Africa:

Quoting spathy:
Dr was replaced with Mr, on purpose.

There is no reason to rant of this on the blog. If you want, send him a Email expressing your thoughts and feelings.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It probably was this morning, and was likely a tropical depression two days before that. I've been tracking it consistently since it left the coast of Africa:


Definitely was neglected IMO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It probably was this morning, and was likely a tropical depression two days before that. I've been tracking it consistently since it left the coast of Africa:

Side effect of having GOES 13 out of whack?

Just came back from Clearwater Beach at Pier 60, had a blast getting sand blasted, the winds were strong, and the waves were high. I see that Andrea made landfall 40 miles NNW of Cedar Key and strengthened a little bit more, darn so close to where I predicted landfall.

Is Andrea going more ENE, favoring a reentry into the coastal Atlantic vs staying inland?
Aww come on NHC. 92L looks better than (dare I mention)Jose ever did :)

Quoting TylerStanfield:

There is no reason to rant of this on the blog. If you want, send him a Email expressing your thoughts and feelings.

Dont fret Tyler.
Dr Masters is accustomed to me.
And on many occasions responds via mail.
My sentiments(not rant) were meant for the populace to see.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm asking because it said 240 hours out..

There doesn't seem to be another system out there except 92L that's capable of producing a low off north Florida in 10 days as far as I can tell. If the CMC picks this up as well, it might get real interesting.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Is Andrea going more ENE, favoring a reentry into the coastal Atlantic vs staying inland?

It's more than likely staying inland. It has continued a NNE or NE motion
Quoting BahaHurican:
Side effect of having GOES 13 out of whack?

The National Hurricane Center doesn't like designating anomalies, regardless of whether those systems met the criteria of a tropical cyclone at the time. They did the same with, coincidentally, Invest 92L in the central Atlantic in June 2010.
Do it for us NHC..upgrade it! even though it'll probably have 1 or two adviosries.That means we un-officially had two storms in June..Not bad..
The pressure keeps going down. I am beginning to think we will have a very nasty extratropical storm up here with a pressure of 985-990 as it goes by.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Is Andrea going more ENE, favoring a reentry into the coastal Atlantic vs staying inland?


It appears the actual center of Andrea will pass just to the west of Charleston.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Definitely was neglected IMO

Yeah it was probably a TD, too bad it wasn't designated. May be a sign of things to come down the road.

Also, does anyone else have GRLevel3? Because I have that, along with Analyst, and the base reflectivity has been showing up blank for a couple days now and the info bar is gone. All the other modes work however and I don't get it. If anyone else has this problem or knows an answer to it TIA.
Quoting spathy:



That's fine. Your opinion is your opinion :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The pressure keeps going down. I am beginning to think we will have a very nasty extratropical storm up here with a pressure of 985-990 as it goes by.
Stay safe up there, this girl is nothing to mess with, I almost got knocked down by her wind while standing up on some bench to take pictures.
Quoting sar2401:

There doesn't seem to be another system out there except 92L that's capable of producing a low off north Florida in 10 days as far as I can tell. If the CMC picks this up as well, it might get real interesting.
How far off FL? Are we talking, like 50 miles out, or more like 500?

Just looked a the Models on Invest 92L. Not much in development as it appears SHEAR is just to high in that area yet! Need to watch it tho.
Quoting nash36:


It appears the actual center of Andrea will pass just to the west of Charleston.


Are you ready PRESSLORD?
Quoting Methurricanes:
Is Andrea going more ENE, favoring a reentry into the coastal Atlantic vs staying inland?

I clearly have no clue but, from watching the general movement over the last 12 hours or so, I think ex-Andrea is going to stay well inland, at least until somewhere around the Virginia coast. I've been remarking all day that Andrea seems to be a more northerly path than the models depct.
I was in Cedar Key when the storm was making landfall. A 41mph sustained wind was recorded. Lots of the roads were underwater. There was 2 feet of beach erosion. Power lines were down and some homes were flooded. Waves were crashing over ther road spraying water 30 feet high.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The National Hurricane Center doesn't like designating anomalies regardless of whether those systems meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone. They did the same within, coincidentally, Invest 92L in the central Atlantic in June 2010.


Doesn't matter if it's an anomaly or not, " A rose by any other name is still a rose"
Gale Warning for Nantucket and Vineyard Sound, and off the East Coast of Cape Cod, expect to see that move into Massachusetts bay, as the forecast is getting nastier because Andrea is expected to stay strong or strengthen over the waters east of NJ
Between 5 and 8 p.m. Andrea's center moved 0.3 degrees north and 0.4 degrees east. I think it will stay inland but will be very close. Not shocked if it does go straight over Savannah and Charleston.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The National Hurricane Center doesn't like designating anomalies, regardless of whether those systems met the criteria of a tropical cyclone at the time. They did the same with, coincidentally, Invest 92L in the central Atlantic in June 2010.

92L will likely be the one that got away... I don't see it being called in the post-season either, the NHC goofed and it really didnt matter if they called it or not because it's impending death in the shear was set in stone Named or not.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Gale Warning for Nantucket and Vineyard Sound, and off the East Coast of Cape Cod, expect to see that move into Massachusetts bay, as the forecast is getting nastier because Andrea is expected to stay strong or strengthen over the waters east of NJ


Really? What's the water temperatures like east of NJ?
Quoting robj144:


Really? What's the water temperatures like east of NJ?
more of a nor'easter than a tropical system
Quoting Dakster:


What's a 'wish peck'?
It's something people get when they use speech-to-text with an accent.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just looked a the Models on Invest 92L. Not much in development as it appears SHEAR is just to high in that area yet! Need to watch it tho.


they did the same thing for 91L and we all see how that is ending..
I beileve that the hurricane season should start on May 15 with the EPAC this is in reponse to Dr. Masters section "The Atlantic Hurricane Season is Getting Longer"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It probably was this morning, and was likely a tropical depression two days before that. I've been tracking it consistently since it left the coast of Africa:


I was impressed by that tropical wave since it rolled off of AFrica...quiet impressive for June. Here is a summary of my observations on it I made in my blog posts:

JUNE 1
.A tropical wave rather impressive for the month of June is rolling off of Africa with a 1010 mb low pressure spin and organzied t-storms. Based on the symmetry of cirrus outflow streaks in all quadrants of the t-storm activity...I would say their is a supportive outflow enhancing and shear reducing upper ridge directly overhead that could seemingly aid in this tropical wave's development. However...climatology...lack of computer model support (as of 18Z)...and an eventual westward track toward the shearing paragraph P3 upper trough suggest that tropical cyclone development here is not likely at this time.

JUNE 4
Tropical wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands in the previous discussion is now entering the waters midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands. It is entering a jet of shearing upper westerlies on the north side of low-latitude eastern Atlantic upper ridge and in advance of paragraph P8 upper trough.

JUNE 5
Tropical midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands seems to have become enhanced a bit in the last 24 hours by low-latitude eastern Atlantic upper ridging. However it will be entering a jet of shearing upper westerlies on the north side of the low-latitude upper ridging and in advance of paragraph P7 upper trough.

JUNE 6
Tropical midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands still seems to be enhanced by low-latitude eastern Atlantic upper ridging. However it will be entering a jet of shearing upper westerlies on the north side of the low-latitude upper ridging and in advance of paragraph P7 upper trough.
Quoting BahaHurican:
How far off FL? Are we talking, like 50 miles out, or more like 500?


Right off Florida, although north of and clear of the Bahamas. The GFS model has a low which suddenly appears over the NE part of Florida at 150 hours and then again at 240 hours with no indication how it got there, so I don't know how much faith to put in it. However, the BAMS and LBAR don't want to kill off 92L and want to send it up your direction. I guess, within 48 hours, it will be dead or starting to a trip to the Bahamas.
Barry from 92L????We shall see.


Quoting BahaHurican:
You stay safe there... I was eying that line of storms earlier and thinking it looks gnarly...


Thanks Baha. Looks like the worst has passed me now. Hopefully they'll die down soon or go over the water.
This...

Did this...

This is a 9 inch diameter limb out of a very big pine behind the garage. Thankfully it missed the garage and just caught the tip of the corner of a storage shed..no leaks so far. Quite a crash though.
This was a very fast moving storm with very gusty winds, heavy rain but over within minutes. Phew!

Hope everyone who has stormy weather out there stays safe!
Quoting Methurricanes:
Gale Warning for Nantucket and Vineyard Sound, and off the East Coast of Cape Cod, expect to see that move into Massachusetts bay, as the forecast is getting nastier because Andrea is expected to stay strong or strengthen over the waters east of NJ

What? There is no gale warning out for any of the places you mentioned. Do you have a link, or is this something you think will happen?
Quoting sar2401:

Right off Florida, although north of and clear of the Bahamas. The GFS model has a low which suddenly appears over the NE part of Florida at 150 hours and then again at 240 hours with no indication how it got there, so I don't know how much faith to put in it. However, the BAMS and LBAR don't want to kill off 92L and want to send it up your direction. I guess, within 48 hours, it will be dead or starting to a trip to the Bahamas.
I did note the BAMS track. Only consolation is that it IS the BAMS [and I am convinced LBAR is only there for the laffs] which means anything that does arrive is likely to be more on the TD or Twave end as opposed to a more organized storm. However, given we've already had round one and round two of torrential rains here, I'm not sure New Providence will be much interested in a vigorous Twave any time soon...
Quoting etxwx:
This...

Did this...

This is a 9 inch diameter limb out of a very big pine behind the garage. Thankfully it missed the garage and just caught the tip of the corner of a storage shed..no leaks so far. Quite a crash though.
This was a very fast moving storm with very gusty winds, heavy rain but over within minutes. Phew!

Hope everyone who has stormy weather out there stays safe!


Wow! Glad you're safe. They were some nasty storms. As you say fast moving. Mom and Dad were caught on I10 coming back from Beaumont and said traffic came to stand still because the rain was so hard no one could see anything. They had some lawn furniture tossed around when they got home. Down to just a drizzle here. Still here thunder rumbling in the distance though.
97. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:

What? There is no gale warning out for any of the places you mentioned. Do you have a link, or is this something you think will happen?


Think these were the ones he was talking about. they are the ofshore areas around the areas he mentioned.

Link

Here are the current gale watches too..

Link
12z and 18z GFS sends a tropical storm . Central Gulf Coast. no clue
Quoting etxwx:
9 inch diameter limb out of a very big pine behind the garage. Thankfully it missed the garage and just caught the tip of the corner of a storage shed..no leaks so far. Quite a crash though.
This was a very fast moving storm with very gusty winds, heavy rain but over within minutes. Phew!

Hope everyone who has stormy weather out there stays safe!


Wow! So glad it wasn't worse for you!

Thanks for the photos.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Barry from 92L????We shall see.


That's what I've been talking about.And people thought I was crazy...
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all.

Thursday evening video update on Andrea and beyond

Thanks for the Update Levi.

-HurricaneDean07

Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's fine. Your opinion is your opinion :)

Thanks Tyler.
I dont expect all or even a few to agree.
I do expect people to express their contrary viewpoint.
Its a Blog.
They are a great thing if you dont take it personally.

Just remember that not agreeing with someones opinion or their logic is not a personal attack,its just an opinion.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Between 5 and 8 p.m. Andrea's center moved 0.3 degrees north and 0.4 degrees east. I think it will stay inland but will be very close. Not shocked if it does go straight over Savannah and Charleston.


Yea, but dry air is killing Andrea now, we'll be lucky to get an inch of rain out of this here in Charleston. Kind of surprised that SPC hasn't extended the Tornado Watch. GR2 picking up on a few waterspouts just east of Tybee right now.
Quoting MTWX:


Mississippi...
Sorry just logged, maybe Lowndes was a patriot or hero. Just saying
Once again, the very wet and broad area of low pressure depicted in several GFS runs in the long range is not Invest 92L. Our central Atlantic disturbance, low, depression/storm, whatever you want to call it, is likely to track west-northwest, north of the Leeward Islands, and slowly die in the process.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Barry from 92L????We shall see.


Wow - has there ever been a June Named storm from a wave that far out in the Atlantic? Seems very unusual place for a storm to form this early, but .....
Quoting xcool:
12z and 18z GFS sends a tropical storm N. Central Gulf Coast. no clue






Quoting MTWX:


Mississippi...

OK, thanks. There's also a Columbus in Georgia, so that weather alert literally could have been for Georgia or Mississippi without changing a word. It really gets confusing down here with everything named for somebody's relative. :-)
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but dry air is killing Andrea now, we'll be lucky to get an inch of rain out of this here in Charleston. Kind of surprised that SPC hasn't extended the Tornado Watch. GR2 picking up on a few waterspouts just east of Tybee right now.


I wouldn't say killing Andreas since the pressure fell another mb between 5 and 8 p.m. You may get some very strong winds there as midnight approaches if the pressure stays steady or goes down another mb or two.
Quoting stormchaser19:







Very Interesting... Let's see how consistent this is.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what I've been talking about.And people thought I was crazy...
This season is already surprising people, your not crazy.
113. JLPR2
Had 92L stayed at 10n it would be Barry right now, but it had to gain latitude to hit the shear. XD

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I wouldn't say killing Andreas since the pressure fell another mb between 5 and 8 p.m. You may get some very strong winds there as midnight approaches if the pressure stays steady or goes down another mb or two.


Naa, this is going to be a non-event for us. That 50 mph wind in the intermediate advisory is generous. It'll be down to 40 mph at 11, just enough to keep it a TS. Also, Andrea is racing NE now, and will be in North Carolina by noon tomorrow.
Quoting JLPR2:
Had 92L stayed at 10n it would be Barry right now, but it had to gain latitude to hit the shear. XD


Essentially it is a Uncalled Tropical Depression.
I'm thinking we'll get our first Named Storm out there in July
Quoting Chucktown:


Naa, this is going to be a non-event for us. That 50 mph wind in the intermediate advisory is generous. It'll be down to 40 mph at 11, just enough to keep it a TS. Also, Andrea is racing NE now, and will be in North Carolina by noon tomorrow.


Guess we will find out soon.....
Let's remember from here on out Tropical Storm Andrea won't be feeding over any warm ocean waters, but will be maintaining its intensity through baroclinic processes. Who knows, it might even intensify slightly.
Quoting Chucktown:


Naa, this is going to be a non-event for us. That 50 mph wind in the intermediate advisory is generous. It'll be down to 40 mph at 11, just enough to keep it a TS. Also, Andrea is racing NE now, and will be in North Carolina by noon tomorrow.


I have to agree here. Since just prior to landfall, dry air has chewed her up. They are STILL sticking with the "heavy rain" forecast, but I honestly can't tell you why. I think 1" is being generous here. Really no more than a few sprinkles here and there. Our biggest concern are the isolated tornadoes. Beyond that, she dried up.
Schools will be open here tomorrow in New Hanover County..
120. MTWX
Quoting SouthDadeNative:
Sorry just logged, maybe Lowndes was a patriot or hero. Just saying


Lowndes County was named after the late William Jones Lowndes, (1782-1822) he was from South Carolina and a U.S. Congressman and an earnest supporter of the War of 1812. Lowndes County in Georgia and Alabama were also named after him. Lowndes County was formed under First Constitution by act created on January 30, 1830.
Quoting spathy:




That being said, not calling him Dr. when he's speaking as a professional in the field is quite insulting. You could disagree and still call him Dr.

Also, you need to learn how to quote. :) It's confusing because your response is in the quote, which looks like it's part of the quote. It tough to separate the two without looking back at the post you're quoting.
Quoting MTWX:


Think these were the ones he was talking about. they are the ofshore areas around the areas he mentioned.

Link

Here are the current gale watches too..

Link

Thanks for the links. All I see are gale watches except for that one gale warning, which is for Saturday. I wonder why that one office (whichever one it is, can't tell from the warning) decided to go with a warning rather than a watch?
123. JLPR2
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Essentially it is a Uncalled Tropical Depression.
I'm thinking we'll get our first Named Storm out there in July


I agree. Had the wind, convection and circulation.
Too bad the NHC noticed it once it started to fall apart.
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!
126. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:

Thanks for the links. All I see are gale watches except for that one gale warning, which is for Saturday. I wonder why that one office (whichever one it is, can't tell from the warning) decided to go with a warning rather than a watch?


There are other warnings. All in the offshore waters.

Here is the link for all of them (toward the bottom of the list)

Link
00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013060700, , BEST, 0, 143N, 481W, 30, 1009, DB
The GFS ensembles do say pressures will begin to lower across the western Atlantic at the end of the month. This is when we'll probably have to start watching for our second named storm, assuming we don't get any frontal storms like Bret, Cindy, or Alberto before that time.

129. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!

Was wondering when when you were going to drop in... LOL!
Quoting nash36:


I have to agree here. Since just prior to landfall, dry air has chewed her up. They are STILL sticking with the "heavy rain" forecast, but I honestly can't tell you why. I think 1" is being generous here. Really no more than a few sprinkles here and there. Our biggest concern are the isolated tornadoes. Beyond that, she dried up.


Yep, that dry sector is quickly approaching so unless another significant band somehow sets up in that dry area, then it is all but over here already.
Quoting MTWX:


Lowndes County was named after the late William Jones Lowndes, (1782-1822) he was from South Carolina and a U.S. Congressman and an earnest supporter of the War of 1812. Lowndes County in Georgia and Alabama were also named after him. Lowndes County was formed under First Constitution by act created on January 30, 1830.

How odd. It looks like Lowndes County MS, AL, and GA were all named for a Congressman from South Carolina....but there's no Lowndes County SC. I guess he had more friends further south than at home. :-)
tree down
Quoting JLPR2:
Had 92L stayed at 10n it would be Barry right now, but it had to gain latitude to hit the shear. XD

It committed suicide....Looks like the gulf is gonna be a hot spot this year.Hopefully that storm going into TX on the GFS run isn't like Don from 2011..
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!
The Carolinas have seen worse, Irene, Sandy etc.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It committed suicide....Looks like the gulf is gonna be a hot spot this year.Hopefully that storm going into TX on the GFS run isn't like Don from 2011..

Geeze, that would be downright depressing if that happened again. We havent got "Hit" by a Tropical System since Ike (You could say we got hit by Hermine (2010) but it wasn't a "Landfall"). We need something...
Quoting washingtonian115:
It committed suicide....Looks like the gulf is gonna be a hot spot this year.Hopefully that storm going into TX on the GFS run isn't like Don from 2011..


'The Don is dead'

Can't forget such phrase...
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!


Thanks for the giggle.......
Apparently there's power out somewhere because the electric company called to say mine would be back on at 2 a.m. It's not off but that's good to know. :)

Husband called from work in Orange. Said he got to work while ago looked up and all he saw was a mass of gray and it started turning. He ran for the store. (Walmart) said he could hardly get in the door. Blew all of their outdoor things all over the place.

And this is going on now...

KBMT-12 shared Vanessa Holmes
A lighting strike causes a massive marsh fire in Bridge City.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


'The Don is dead'

Can't forget such phrase...

lol
Gonna take a break. Be back later.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Essentially it is a Uncalled Tropical Depression.
I'm thinking we'll get our first Named Storm out there in July

Let's call 92L "Fred". I don't think we've ever had a tropical system named "Fred".
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED
. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT
.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Saddest day in a Texan's Life, especially during a drought to see this happen.
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!


Press !! Been a while. Hey, I'm trying to downplay it now. You know how it gets. Sunday looks interesting around here.
may be 92L is are long lost dead Karen that came back from the dead
Quoting sar2401:

Let's call 92L "Fred". I don't think we've ever had a tropical system named "Fred".

2009 we had Category 3 Hurricane Fred

Quoting hurricanes2018:
tree down

Oh, man, and that's a...well, kind of medium size tree too. How many TV vans were there to get the footage of the homeowner staring at his downed tree?
Eyewitness report from m/v Lady Bug...just off Charleston Harbor: We are experiencing fierce drizzle! And a hard, steady breeze! It's epic!!!!
Quoting TylerStanfield:

lol


I want to get something straight here. You are Dean 07 right.
As conspicuous ad it is, why the new handle?

You want me to change your name in my chart as well?
Quoting Chucktown:


Press !! Been a while. Hey, I'm trying to downplay it now. You know how it gets. Sunday looks interesting around here.


Dude...water boarding could be said to be 'interesting'...Could you elaborate a tad!!!!!
Quoting TylerStanfield:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED
. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT
.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Saddest day in a Texan's Life, especially during a drought to see this happen.


What's always stuck out to me is that Don's rainfall wouldn't have been considered a "threat" at that point.
Yesterday nrti posted some models, GFDL and something else I think, that showed the heaviest rains on the W side of the storm. Not what I would have expected, but goes to show those models are pretty dang smart things most of the time...
Before I go.
A little more of NHC Humor

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

NNNN
Quoting Doppler22:

2009 we had Category 3 Hurricane Fred


Oh, darn, I thought I had a good one there. Ok, how about "Trigger"? I'm almost positive there was never a tropical storm named "Trigger". :-)
156. xcool
AL, 92, 2013060700, , BEST, 0, 143N, 481W, 30, 1009, DB
Quoting presslord:
Eyewitness report from m/v Lady Bug...just off Charleston Harbor: We are experiencing fierce drizzle! And a hard, steady breeze! It's epic!!!!


Hey rumor has it that "Epic" has been trademarked...By an expatriate none the less...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What's always stuck out to me is that Don's rainfall wouldn't have been considered a "threat" at that point.


It never was as we got to find out eventually.
So was the storm

People let down there
Quoting Tazmanian:
may be 92L is are long lost dead Karen that came back from the dead
Bite your tongue, chile...

Waidaminit... is Karen on this year's list????
We are being absolutely HAMMERED with drizzle!!!! Epic drizzle!!!!!
Quoting sar2401:

Oh, darn, I thought I had a good one there. Ok, how about "Trigger"? I'm almost positive there was never a tropical storm named "Trigger". :-)


Pick a name that begins with a "Q" and I guarantee you it's never been used. :)
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
It's gonna be a rainy, breezy evening in Charleston.....OH MY GOD!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!


just for you....

http://www.amazon.com/Singin-In-The-Rain-Charlest on/dp/B002RM3JA2

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I want to get something straight here. You are Dean 07 right.
As conspicuous ad it is, why the new handle?

You want me to change your name in my chart as well?

Yes, and I changed my name from Dean07 because I find it that I want to make a "Name" for myself, so why would I want to use a fake name, as well as the fact that I want to make this my Career (Forecasting and Such) and so I want to be able to use this account and be known with my actual name :)
Judge it however you like, just my thought process.
btw Change my handle on the chart to this.
The breeze is so strong...that...standing on deck....I had to turn downwind to light my cigar just now....Epic!
Suddenly I really hate Andrea right now. I just remembered that NASCAR is at Pocono (Long Pond, PA) this weekend and a lot of the races/events will likely get rained on. Go away Andrea! :(
Quoting wxchaser97:
Suddenly I really hate Andrea right now. I just remembered that NASCAR is at Pocono (Long Pond, PA) this weekend and a lot of the races/events will likely get rained on. Go away Andrea! :(



LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bite your tongue, chile...

Waidaminit... is Karen on this year's list????

Yep... Get ready Baha. Get ready.
Quoting xcool:
AL, 92, 2013060700, , BEST, 0, 143N, 481W, 30, 1009, DB
I guess its not only Levi that thinks its a depression . But NHC Has to call it before it gets official.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yes, and I changed my name from Dean07 because I find it that I want to make a "Name" for myself, so why would I want to use a fake name, as well as the fact that I want to make this my Career (Forecasting and Such) and so I want to be able to use this account and be known with my actual name :)
Judge it however you like, just my thought process.


Actually it sounds pretty original for you to do..
I'll make the change in my scorecard as well
Oh, my God! The foredeck is getting damp!!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
The breeze is so strong...that...standing on deck....I had to turn downwind to light my cigar just now....Epic!


I know what's gonna happen. It's just waiting for 10pm and my long walk to the truck before it goes bananas. It'll make my drive home hell, then stop. LOL!
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yep... Get ready Baha. Get ready.
Oh, man... she's already sending out doppelgangers to see if we're paying attention... she's going to make another run across the ATL!!!!!
174. JLPR2
Quoting presslord:
Oh, my God! The foredeck is getting damp!!!!!!


No! A scream and a hand dramatically sliding down a window psycho style seems appropriate. XD
Quoting presslord:
We are being absolutely HAMMERED with drizzle!!!! Epic drizzle!!!!!


It's so bad....some drops of water have actually gotten through the screens....AND ARE ON THE WINDOWS!!!!!!
I hope everybody is hearing the dramatic music playing in the background of Press's posts... I'd play some, but can't find my little tiny violin...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Suddenly I really hate Andrea right now. I just remembered that NASCAR is at Pocono (Long Pond, PA) this weekend and a lot of the races/events will likely get rained on. Go away Andrea! :(

Yeah my uncle was going to go to Pocono and he's not happy either
179. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:


No! A scream and a hand dramatically sliding down a window psycho style seems appropriate. XD


A wait. I was actually thinking of Titanic's errrm scene with the hand sliding down. xD
Quoting presslord:
It's so bad....some drops of water have actually gotten through the screens....AND ARE ON THE WINDOWS!!!!!!

Hurry! Get in the bathtub and put a mattress over you before the storm starts to cause puddles on the streets!
Andrea located near Lake City, FL... should enter our Peach state after midnight
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yes, and I changed my name from Dean07 because I find it that I want to make a "Name" for myself, so why would I want to use a fake name, as well as the fact that I want to make this my Career (Forecasting and Such) and so I want to be able to use this account and be known with my actual name :)
Judge it however you like, just my thought process.
btw Change my handle on the chart to this.

Well then, nice to "re-meet" you Tyler :p
Since the commercial's on... I think I'll go get a glass of milk and some cookies.....
Quoting Doppler22:

Well then, nice to "re-meet" you Tyler :p

Nice to meet you too.

Alright now Im going to take a break.
Quoting Doppler22:

Yeah my uncle was going to go to Pocono and he's not happy either


Cool, less CO2 emitted to add to the Global WV.

Eggg-cellent'

That whole turning Left thing real fast is kinda like, well,..important ?



Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Apparently there's power out somewhere because the electric company called to say mine would be back on at 2 a.m. It's not off but that's good to know. :)


ROFL!
I liked the way you phrased that. :-D
Last one ;)
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...

and Next Advisory...
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....
The cloudS are so dark and threatening...IT'S ALMOST LIKE NGHT TIME!!!!!!!
Still found this advisory the best in recent memory:

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
#185 - Egggsactly.

Flood alerts for most of the East Coast
Mail, Dax
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since the commercial's on... I think I'll go get a glass of milk and some cookies.....
\

Time to spur on the heat.
Quoting presslord:
The cloudS are so dark and threatening...IT'S ALMOST LIKE NiGHT TIME!!!!!!!
It's 9:20. It IS night time....
post 187; Wow haha I was actually going to post that one, loved Epsilon!

Still quiet here in Jax, winds starting to pick up some but nothing of note yet. Thankful for the that so far but still have the rest of the night yet.

Oh and hey Press, nice to see you around.
Looks like Invest 92 is a tropical storm.
The breeze is causing the drizzle to fall almost straight down VERTICALLY!!!!!!!
Hey Doppler what you think about Nascar adding more races?That would be awesome!

Quoting robj144:


That being said, not calling him Dr. when he's speaking as a professional in the field is quite insulting. You could disagree and still call him Dr.

Also, you need to learn how to quote. :) It's confusing because your response is in the quote, which looks like it's part of the quote. It tough to separate the two without looking back at the post you're quoting.

Yes it was disrespectful,not insulting. My reasons for droping the Dr was because I felt his reasoning wasnt worthy of the Dr title.

As far as the quote problem. My computer does not agree with new Wu,thus I use Classic Wu.
I have been on this site for many years,And I know how to quote properly. Classic Wu no longer cooperates easily with new Wu
Thus the caps that could not be turned off.
Thanks for responding,though the topic of my post would have been a more enlightening response.

Quoting presslord:
The cloudS are so dark and threatening...IT'S ALMOST LIKE NGHT TIME!!!!!!!



Seek Safe, er, Harbor maybe ?



Quoting Stoopid1:
post 187; Wow haha I was actually going to post that one, loved Epsilon!

Still quiet here in Jax, winds starting to pick up some but nothing of note yet. Thankful for the that so far but still have the rest of the night yet.

Oh and hey Press, nice to see you around.
Wait, is this Stoopid, the real Stoopid1 of stoopidcircle fame????? OMG....
Classic Wu is OK in CHROME.

Still using IE ?

LoL...
Quoting presslord:
The cloudS are so dark and threatening...IT'S ALMOST LIKE NiGHT TIME!!!!!!!
It's 9:20. It IS night time....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wait, is this Stoopid, the real Stoopid1 of stoopidcircle fame????? OMG....


100% accurate all day everyday lol. I don't even know if I still have that dandy, was on an older computer.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Looks like Invest 92 is a tropical storm.


It is in the Tropical Zone and it is a thunderstorm.

But I don't see it as a Tropical Storm (as in 'Barry'), yet.
er, well


708
WFUS52 KCHS 070122
TORCHS
SCC013-070145-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0008.130607T0122Z-130607T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 922 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT THAT COULD MOVE ONSHORE AS A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PARRIS ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PARRIS ISLAND...PORT ROYAL...LADYS ISLAND...SHELL POINT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE BECOME TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE
SHORE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND A
LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.



LAT...LON 3221 8067 3238 8084 3248 8055 3228 8054
3227 8057 3227 8059 3225 8062 3226 8065
3224 8064 3225 8063 3224 8063 3223 8062
3221 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 167DEG 34KT 3225 8061
Quoting Patrap:
Classic Wu is OK in CHROME.

Still using IE ?

LoL...
Even I have given up on IE for blogging purposes.
#207 - RUN PRESS!!!!! Head for shelter.
Major rainfall possible for all the East Coast... Expect gusty winds, rough surf and beach erosion all along I-95
Invest 92L
What does it look like the chances are for it to become a storm and hit the Southeast?
Quoting lostinohio:
Invest 92L
What does it look like the chances are for it to become a storm and hit the Southeast?


10% right now. Per NHC.
so much for that nothing is happening in SC..

TORNADO WARNING
SCC013-070145-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0008.130607T0122Z-130607T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 922 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT THAT COULD MOVE ONSHORE AS A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PARRIS ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PARRIS ISLAND...PORT ROYAL...LADYS ISLAND...SHELL POINT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE BECOME TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE
SHORE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND A
LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8067 3238 8084 3248 8055 3228 8054
3227 8057 3227 8059 3225 8062 3226 8065
3224 8064 3225 8063 3224 8063 3223 8062
3221 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 167DEG 34KT 3225 8061

$$
Quoting Stoopid1:


100% accurate all day everyday lol. I don't even know if I still have that dandy, was on an older computer.
What a pity! That was one of the neatest graphics I've seen on the blog...100% accurate all the time, and truly representative of the excessive eagerness of some in the blog from time to time.... lol

Good to see you round, man... hope u blog more this year...
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Still found this advisory the best in recent memory:

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN


Excellent. :-)
If more weather reports showed a sense of humour, ordinary citizens would pay more attention to them.
Quoting Patrap:
er, well


708
WFUS52 KCHS 070122
TORCHS
SCC013-070145-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0008.130607T0122Z-130607T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 922 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT THAT COULD MOVE ONSHORE AS A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PARRIS ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PARRIS ISLAND...PORT ROYAL...LADYS ISLAND...SHELL POINT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE BECOME TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE
SHORE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND A
LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.



LAT...LON 3221 8067 3238 8084 3248 8055 3228 8054
3227 8057 3227 8059 3225 8062 3226 8065
3224 8064 3225 8063 3224 8063 3223 8062
3221 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 167DEG 34KT 3225 8061


well south of here
Quoting BahaHurican:
Even I have given up on IE for blogging purposes.

I can't stand IE anymore, just doesn't work for me. I'm glad I have been using FF for a long while now.



Quoting lostinohio:
Invest 92L
What does it look like the chances are for it to become a storm and hit the Southeast?

For becoming a named storm: 0% (Technically it has a 10% chance per the latest TWO but with it being an anomaly and with harsh conditions it will be encountering it won't happen.)

For hitting the southeast: Idk

"Quoting presslord:
The breeze is so strong...that...standing on deck....I had to turn downwind to light my cigar just now....Epic!"

Spathys response:
LOL Epic indeed.

the situation in durham:
Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
What a pity! That was one of the neatest graphics I've seen on the blog...100% accurate all the time, and truly representative of the excessive eagerness of some in the blog from time to time.... lol

Good to see you round, man... hope u blog more this year...


I said in an earlier blog I'm not so heavy into tracking and predicting much now, just more of lurker nowadays. Always good info to be had here, drags me back.

Andrea here so far; Jax KCRG obs

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT

...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting ncstorm:
so much for that nothing is happening in SC..

TORNADO WARNING
SCC013-070145-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0008.130607T0122Z-130607T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 922 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT THAT COULD MOVE ONSHORE AS A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PARRIS ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PARRIS ISLAND...PORT ROYAL...LADYS ISLAND...SHELL POINT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE BECOME TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE
SHORE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND A
LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8067 3238 8084 3248 8055 3228 8054
3227 8057 3227 8059 3225 8062 3226 8065
3224 8064 3225 8063 3224 8063 3223 8062
3221 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 167DEG 34KT 3225 8061

$$


Its a weak couplet that "may" have produced a waterspout that moved onshore. Never said we wouldn't see anything, but overall, its a non-event here. We had more tornado warnings on Monday and Tuesday around here.


Don't write off 92L yet, has a lot of obstacles ( shear) to overcome, but I've seen a surprise or 2 before
Securite! Securite! Securite! Attention all vessels! This is Coast Guard Group Charleston....Visibility is down to 9 miles!
Presslord, you should put out your storm anchors to ride out the storm. With all that heavy rain and wind, visibility must be terrible. It's been raining steadily here in South Miami for the last 2 hours and my boat is in the garage nice and dry.
I don't know he seems screwed with the epic vertical drizzle and 9 miles of visibility. Time to chalk it up to a loss and get some whiskey.
There is also a 5 7/8" storm surge (0.49 feet) at the Battery in Charleston.
Hope he has his survival suit on a an EPIRB so the coast gaurd can find him.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
There is also a 5 7/8" storm surge (0.49 feet) at the Battery in Charleston.


the damage to property will be incalculable...
how come its always the south carolinains that seem to be the most fun on here???? oceanmoan, nash32, stormjunkie, chucktown, tiggerific, presslord...
From Ada monzon:
Análisis conciso....
1-Andrea seguirá como tormenta cruzando el norte de Florida en la noche, continuando sobre costa este de EEUU, y debe perder sus características tropicales entre viernes y sábado.
2-Invest 92L-Vientos de corriente de chorro incidiran sobre circulacion de este disturbio tropical. A pesar de que modelos traen la baja presion cerca de PR, no le presten atencion por el momento, Una vaguada nos protegera con los vientos fuertes, y este fenomeno se debilitara o fragmentara mientars discurre al noreste de PR. Sn embrago habra lluvias en nuestro entorno asociado al campo de humedad del sistema.
3-Pronostico de PR-Vuelva a sacar el paragua. Volvemos al patron de Sol y lluvias, con una debil zona de humedad que esta al este de las Antillas, y entra con grupos de nubes y lluvias entra viernes y sabado. El domingo recibimos la humedad del disturbio tropical que le acabo de mencionar.
Quoting Patrap:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT

...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




and your point is?
Quoting stormgirI:
how come its always the south carolinains that seem to be the most fun on here????
They have the best whiskey?
Quoting BahaHurican:
They have the best whiskey?

i was a thinkin moonshine but you might be on to something.....
Quoting Gearsts:
From Ada monzon:
Análisis conciso....
1-Andrea seguirá como tormenta cruzando el norte de Florida en la noche, continuando sobre costa este de EEUU, y debe perder sus características tropicales entre viernes y sábado.
2-Invest 92L-Vientos de corriente de chorro incidiran sobre circulacion de este disturbio tropical. A pesar de que modelos traen la baja presion cerca de PR, no le presten atencion por el momento, Una vaguada nos protegera con los vientos fuertes, y este fenomeno se debilitara o fragmentara mientars discurre al noreste de PR. Sn embrago habra lluvias en nuestro entorno asociado al campo de humedad del sistema.
3-Pronostico de PR-Vuelva a sacar el paragua. Volvemos al patron de Sol y lluvias, con una debil zona de humedad que esta al este de las Antillas, y entra con grupos de nubes y lluvias entra viernes y sabado. El domingo recibimos la humedad del disturbio tropical que le acabo de mencionar.
Can we get a translation on this for the non-Spanish speakers?
234.

There was supposed to be a pernt?


I lived in Charleston for 15 months when I was in the Navy. Just from my experience, you have to be colorful(or mildly insane, your pick) to pass the time.
Quoting stormgirI:
how come its always the south carolinains that seem to be the most fun on here????


They have to find some way to compensate. As a North Carolina native I can assure you that North Carolina is bigger and cooler than South Carolina. We are their superior in altitude, latitude and attitude--in every way! ;)

Quoting Tazmanian:




and your point is?

Its just information.
Information provided without comment,thus safe from ridicule yet important.
No personal thoughts that could be disagreed with just a safe status post.
Why would you ask Taz?
You notice the trend as well?

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


They have to find some way to compensate. North Carolina is bigger and cooler than South Carolina. We are their superior in altitude, latitude and attitude. We are their superior in every way! ;)

oh no you just started world war III with press...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


They have to find some way to compensate. North Carolina is bigger and cooler than South Carolina. We are their superior in altitude, latitude and attitude. We are their superior in every way! ;)


We have Charleston....you lose...
Quoting Gearsts:
From Ada monzon:
Análisis conciso....
1-Andrea seguirá como tormenta cruzando el norte de Florida en la noche, continuando sobre costa este de EEUU, y debe perder sus características tropicales entre viernes y sábado.
2-Invest 92L-Vientos de corriente de chorro incidiran sobre circulacion de este disturbio tropical. A pesar de que modelos traen la baja presion cerca de PR, no le presten atencion por el momento, Una vaguada nos protegera con los vientos fuertes, y este fenomeno se debilitara o fragmentara mientars discurre al noreste de PR. Sn embrago habra lluvias en nuestro entorno asociado al campo de humedad del sistema.
3-Pronostico de PR-Vuelva a sacar el paragua. Volvemos al patron de Sol y lluvias, con una debil zona de humedad que esta al este de las Antillas, y entra con grupos de nubes y lluvias entra viernes y sabado. El domingo recibimos la humedad del disturbio tropical que le acabo de mencionar.


Gracias por la informacion.
Casi nadie escribe en espanol aqui.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can we get a translation on this for the non-Spanish speakers?


Concise analysis...
1-Andrea will continue as a storm crossing North Florida into the night, continuing on the East coast of the United States, and it should lose its tropical characteristics between Friday and Saturday.
2-Invest 92L - winds of the Jet stream incidiran on movement of this tropical disturbance. While models bring low pressure near PR, do not pay you attention for the moment, a trough we protect with high winds, and this phenomenon is to weaken or fracturing mientars runs northeast of PR. SN however there will be rains in our environment associated with the field of moisture from the system.
3 - Prognosis of PR-back to take the umbrella. We return to the pattern of Sun and rain, with a weak area of moisture that is East of the Antilles, and enters with groups of clouds and rains come Friday and Saturday. On Sunday receive moisture from the tropical disturbance that just you mentioned.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


They have to find some way to compensate. North Carolina is bigger and cooler than South Carolina. We are their superior in altitude, latitude and attitude. We are their superior in every way! ;)
Now this is just TOTALLY designed to get up somebody's nose...
Quoting presslord:


We have Charleston....you lose...


Careful. That storm surge is now up to 6 1/8" (0.51 feet) You won't have Charleston around for long! :P
Great pic now we can't even talk on the phone or post on internet without big sis knowing what we say!
Quoting Patrap:


Concise analysis...
1-Andrea will continue as a storm crossing North Florida into the night, continuing on the East coast of the United States, and it should lose its tropical characteristics between Friday and Saturday.
2-Invest 92L - winds of the Jet stream incidiran on movement of this tropical disturbance. While models bring low pressure near PR, do not pay you attention for the moment, a trough we protect with high winds, and this phenomenon is to weaken or fracturing mientars runs northeast of PR. SN however there will be rains in our environment associated with the field of moisture from the system.
3 - Prognosis of PR-back to take the umbrella. We return to the pattern of Sun and rain, with a weak area of moisture that is East of the Antilles, and enters with groups of clouds and rains come Friday and Saturday. On Sunday receive moisture from the tropical disturbance that just you mentioned.
What'd you use, Pat? I can read it myself [in Spanish, I mean] but my brain's too fried to translate for others...
Response has been made mute. But I will add ,the exchange was important and needed.
252. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
From Ada monzon:
Análisis conciso....
3-Pronostico de PR-Vuelva a sacar el paragua. Volvemos al patron de Sol y lluvias, con una debil zona de humedad que esta al este de las Antillas, y entra con grupos de nubes y lluvias entra viernes y sabado. El domingo recibimos la humedad del disturbio tropical que le acabo de mencionar.


Oh great! And I thought the sunny weather would last at least a week more. :\
Quoting BahaHurican:
What'd you use, Pat? I can read it myself [in Spanish, I mean] but my brain's too fried to translate for others...


I use bing translator.

Link
While we have been bantering Andrea has been moving ENE and is now due east of Lake City FL. A wobble or a run for the coast?
I'm suprised. After a storm forms, the blog normally moves to something else. With Andrea, we waited until it made landfall.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I use bing translator.

Link

Oye chico que no eres tu de Puerto Rico?
Hablas espanol como nosotros, que te pasa?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Gracias por la informacion.
Casi nadie escribe en espanol aqui.
Bastante de nosotros hablemos cuando se necesita, pero normalmente es cuando hay tormenta cerca de lugar hispano...

Some of us do, but mostly when there's a storm near a spanish-speaking area.

It's considered polite to translate to / from Spanish for yourself if possible.
259. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:


Concise analysis...
1-Andrea will continue as a storm crossing North Florida during the night, continuing on through the East coast of the United States, and it should lose its tropical characteristics between Friday and Saturday.
2-Invest 92L - winds of the Jet stream will influence on the circulation of this tropical disturbance. While models bring the low pressure near PR, do not pay attention to it for the moment, a trough will protect us with high windshear, and this wave should then weaken or fracture while it runs northeast of PR. However there will be rains in our environment associated with the field of moisture from the system.
3 - Prognosis of PR-take out your umbrellas. We return to the pattern of Sun and rain, with a weak area of moisture that is East of the Antilles, and enters with groups of clouds and rains come Friday and Saturday. On Sunday we receive moisture from the tropical disturbance that was just mentioned.


And there we go, did a grammatical error check. That is an awesome translator.
wu is found in 90 languages
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I use bing translator.

Link
TYVM... when the blog gets busy it's cool to have a backup...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
While we have been bantering Andrea has been moving ENE and is now due east of Lake City FL. A wobble or a run for the coast?

Wobble. Andrea is going to run north for a good bit before being pushed out to sea.
Quoting presslord:


We have Charleston....you lose...


We have Charleston AND Presslord...
So, I've had an INCREDIBLE afternoon. Arrived in Ft. Lauderdale around 1pm... and got to the apartment around 1:45pm.

Everything was quiet weatherwise until about 4:30pm, when these mini supercells started forming a few miles inland from the beach I am staying on.

One of these mini supercells produced this brief funnel:



All of the supercells then congealed, and formed an extensive line all along the east shore of south Florida. Produced extensive lightning (one of which destroyed a transformer, seeing the explosion with my own eyes) and torrential rain 60mph gusts (mind you, I am about 450 feet above ground, so winds were definitely stronger than at the surface).

As the MCS then moved offshore, the storm had weakened slowly, but then, RIGHT at around sunset, the sun peeked out for about 5 minutes, and I just happened to look out the window to see THIS:



An incredible double rainbow with a pink background.

This has been an incredible start to my stay in Miami. 4 more days to potentially see storms!
Quoting sar2401:

Wobble. Andrea is going to run north for a good bit before being pushed out to sea.


I noticed that little wobble, about 35-40 miles due west of my location now, calm outside. Hopefully that keeps up.
Quoting Patrap:
wu is found in 90 languages


Vraiment??? Nous l'aime...
Fantastico...
Great
Mamma mia, molto bello!


Those are only 4
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
While we have been bantering Andrea has been moving ENE and is now due east of Lake City FL. A wobble or a run for the coast?
I been thinking we'll see the centre out over the ATL somewhere between Savannah and St Mary's but that's just my opinion. Likely it'd still be a TS, too.

Quoting JLPR2:


And there we go, did a grammatical error check. That is an awesome translator.
This is great stuff. Missed the colloquialism about the umbrella but it got just about everything else.
Quoting OceanMoan:


We have Charleston AND Presslord...
Total smackdown...
[looks at Brian]
Quoting Stoopid1:


I noticed that little wobble, about 35-40 miles due west of my location now, calm outside. Hopefully that keeps up.


What location is that?
No need to get into politics on a weather blog y'all.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What location is that?


Jacksonville, just east of downtown.
North Carolina has national championship college basketball and pro football :) And calabash seafood!
Cool. I expect Andrea's center will go north of Jax. But maybe offshore south of Savannah?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Oye chico que no eres tu de Puerto Rico?
Hablas espanol como nosotros, que te pasa?


I speak both English and Spanish. The bing translator is a good tool to use.
Quoting OceanMoan:


We have Charleston AND Presslord...


true but dont forget South of the Border..another beautiful tourist site in SC..LOL..



Quoting ncstorm:


true but dont forget South of the Border..another beautiful tourist site in SC..LOL..






Hmmmm, no comment.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Major rainfall possible for all the East Coast... Expect gusty winds, rough surf and beach erosion all along I-95
Quote | Ignore User

You made that up, right? Why will Andrea become a larger and more dangerous storm than it has already become? Andrea has not turned out to be an epic rainmaker anywhere. I hope the media is not hyping this up into another Sandy.
Quoting ncstorm:


true but dont forget South of the Border..another beautiful tourist site in SC..LOL..





The peak of South Carolina couth and culture :)
Quoting spathy:



What comes to mind is someone who can't figure out how to quote things correctly.
I've driven by Pedro many a time, never was tempted to stop lol.
Quoting Stoopid1:
I've driven by Pedro many a time, never was tempted to stop lol.


I stopped there once, and once was enough.
Pleasant place tonight -- nice to see some of the old timers on here.

When that last tail came across us, it was something. The rain was torrential -- but its quiet and calm now.
Quoting Thrawst:
So, I've had an INCREDIBLE afternoon. Arrived in Ft. Lauderdale around 1pm... and got to the apartment around 1:45pm.

Everything was quiet weatherwise until about 4:30pm, when these mini supercells started forming a few miles inland from the beach I am staying on.

One of these mini supercells produced this brief funnel:



All of the supercells then congealed, and formed an extensive line all along the east shore of south Florida. Produced extensive lightning (one of which destroyed a transformer, seeing the explosion with my own eyes) and torrential rain 60mph gusts (mind you, I am about 450 feet above ground, so winds were definitely stronger than at the surface).

As the MCS then moved offshore, the storm had weakened slowly, but then, RIGHT at around sunset, the sun peeked out for about 5 minutes, and I just happened to look out the window to see THIS:



An incredible double rainbow with a pink background.

This has been an incredible start to my stay in Miami. 4 more days to potentially see storms!

I don't think that was a funnel cloud, but nice pics anyway.
Quoting sar2401:

You made that up, right? Why will Andrea become a larger and more dangerous storm than it has already become? Andrea has not turned out to be an epic rainmaker anywhere. I hope the media is not hyping this up into another Sandy.

Um ok...
..
Quoting sar2401:

I don't think that was a funnel cloud, but nice pics anyway.


Hmm, may have not been, but it was indeed rotating.
Quoting sar2401:

You made that up, right? Why will Andrea become a larger and more dangerous storm than it has already become? Andrea has not turned out to be an epic rainmaker anywhere. I hope the media is not hyping this up into another Sandy.


Southern Florida doesn't count I guess.
"Andrea has not turned out to be an epic rainmaker anywhere."

Except of course.. if you live in Florida. I got a good 5" of rain today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 7 2013
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) near 14.0N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.
Quoting Thrawst:
So, This has been an incredible start to my stay in Miami. 4 more days to potentially see storms!


If you are in the Fort Lauderdale area check out this web site http://www.sunny.org/
Quoting ncstorm:


true but dont forget South of the Border..another beautiful tourist site in SC..LOL..




Also an almost complete lack of street lights...and I mean anywhere. I don't know if the people of South Carolina don't like lights or hate paying electric bills but driving on a freeway in South Carolina at night with poor visibility is downright dangerous. The fact that most of the off ramps only have one sign marking them only makes things worse. Oh, and the paving. Man, talk about getting fillings knocked loose. I felt like I was in a third world country...and that's before I saw Pedro. :-)
Quoting zoomiami:
Pleasant place tonight -- nice to see some of the old timers on here.

When that last tail came across us, it was something. The rain was torrential -- but its quiet and calm now.
Hey, zoo.
That's how we were getting it the last 10 days... I'm glad for the cloud cover and breeze that have been keeping temps and humidity down, but gladder the rain has stopped.
294. JLPR2
Quoting Stoopid1:
I've driven by Pedro many a time, never was tempted to stop lol.


Hmm... I never really thought of myself as a wiener. So no, I wouldn't stop either.
Quoting Stoopid1:


Southern Florida doesn't count I guess.


Yeah, true.
Idk what hes talking about. East coast gonna get very wet.

Gnite everyone
Quoting zoomiami:
Pleasant place tonight -- nice to see some of the old timers on here.

When that last tail came across us, it was something. The rain was torrential -- but its quiet and calm now.


Not sure where the festive mood came from but I ain't complaining.

Starting to
Quoting Stoopid1:


Southern Florida doesn't count I guess.

Sure it counts. How much rain have you had? I had five inches in the last two day in Alabama without a tropical storm. I was thinking of the supposed 15-20" forecast of several days ago.
Quoting sar2401:

Sure it counts. How much rain have you had? I had five inches in the last two day in Alabama without a tropical storm. I was thinking of the supposed 15-20" forecast of several days ago.
It all fell before Andrea was named.
...ANDREA WEAKENING SLOWLY AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 30.3°N 82.4°W
Moving: NE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting sar2401:

Also an almost complete lack of street lights...and I mean anywhere. I don't know if the people of South Carolina don't like lights or hate paying electric bills but driving on a freeway in South Carolina at night with poor visibility is downright dangerous. The fact that most of the off ramps only have one sign marking them only makes things worse. Oh, and the paving. Man, talk about getting fillings knocked loose. I felt like I was in a third world country...and that's before I saw Pedro. :-)



Really? I hadn't noticed, seems normal to me. (kidding)
Quoting Thrawst:


Hmm, may have not been, but it was indeed rotating.


It is actually harder to see one of these small tornadoes in FL into it actually touches down and the sand comes up. Seen many come down out of the cloud and go back up without ever touching anything. Great shots though. Thanks for sharing.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
"Andrea has not turned out to be an epic rainmaker anywhere."

Except of course.. if you live in Florida. I got a good 5" of rain today.

I wouldn't count 5" in Florida as "epic" rainfall. The last time I was in Tampa, it seemed like we got 5" almost every day.
Quoting Stoopid1:


Not sure where the festive mood came from but I ain't complaining.

Starting to



I love Master Shake!
Quoting OceanMoan:



Really? I hadn't noticed, seems normal to me. (kidding)


Try downtown Charleston. They don't need speed limits if you go to fast your car falls apart. Just kidding Presslord; but close.
Quoting sar2401:

Sure it counts. How much rain have you had? I had five inches in the last two day in Alabama without a tropical storm. I was thinking of the supposed 15-20" forecast of several days ago.


1.55" today according to KCRG(nearest airport). Kinda lucked out here in Jax.
Quoting Thrawst:


Hmm, may have not been, but it was indeed rotating.

Maybe a rotating wall cloud but the rest looks like scud in the picture. Anyway, I'm glad it wasn't a funnel headed right for you. I imagine 45 stories up doesn't count as a good tornado shelter.
Afternoon all. How is everyone dealing with Andrea? 10 Tornadoes and 4'5 storm surge.

What was Andrea's minimum pressure at landfall?
Last night before I went to bed she was 997mb.
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Try downtown Charleston. They don't need speed limits if you go to fast your car falls apart. Just kidding Presslord; but close.



And that is the reason I avoid driving in downtown Charleston as much as possible. :-)
Really?
Down to 45 mph, up to 993 mb.
Quoting OceanMoan:



And that is the reason I avoid driving in downtown Charleston as much as possible. :-)

I know; but it's such a great historic area.
I didnt think so.
Thanks for the following of rules. Wunder admin.
But you just removed my last post.
Weather is politics because Government funds weather.
If you dont want weather to be political than remove Government funding and restore proper Government role!
Shame on WU!
Quoting spathy:
I didnt think so.
Thanks for the following of rules. Wunder admin.

You are correct; but to the weather.
I'm still amazed that this TS developed this early from a storm that formed in the Pacific and made it across Mexico to develop in the GOM, especially with all the shear it encountered.
0.5 degrees north and 0.6 degrees east between 8 and 11 p.m.
Quoting Stoopid1:


1.55" today according to KCRG(nearest airport). Kinda lucked out here in Jax.

Kinda my point. I think Andrea is going to be a nice rainmaker for thse that need it but it's not going to be a dangerous storm. I'm not the one using the word "dangerous". The graphic said "Dangerous Flooding Threat". I don't believe that to be true, especially from 3" to 5" of rain.
Really!?
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Try downtown Charleston. They don't need speed limits if you go to fast your car falls apart. Just kidding Presslord; but close.

Oh, yeah, I forgot about downtown Charleston. The city motto, as I understand it, is "Enjoy yourself - all traffic control devices are merely suggestions". :-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, zoo.
That's how we were getting it the last 10 days... I'm glad for the cloud cover and breeze that have been keeping temps and humidity down, but gladder the rain has stopped.


It's about to get nasty hot around here next week. Especially with the gulf heating up. Yuck!



Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. How is everyone dealing with Andrea? 10 Tornadoes and 4'5 storm surge.

What was Andrea's minimum pressure at landfall?
Last night before I went to bed she was 997mb.


The pressure was 993 mb at landfall, deepened to 992 mb at 8 pm EDT and is 993 again. Andrea is becoming more baroclinic and less tropical looking with every satellite frame.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Really!?

Uh-oh, it's the GFS. Really, I think 92L has a chance to make the bright lights. After watching Andrea, I'm not discounting any possibilities now.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Really!?


look like overall tracks iam expecting this season.

Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:

You are correct; but to the weather.
I'm still amazed that this TS developed this early from a storm that formed in the Pacific and made it across Mexico to develop in the GOM, especially with all the shear it encountered.

Thats pretty cool isnt it.

Not to diminish any distruction and harm caused by Andrea,.... What a great way to start the season of weatherwatching.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


The pressure was 993 mb at landfall, deepened to 992 mb at 8 pm EDT and is 993 again. Andrea is becoming more baroclinic and less tropical looking with every satellite frame.

Thanks mate!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It's about to get nasty hot around here next week. Especially with the gulf heating up. Yuck!




But look at that water temperature! I want to go diving. The high at my house in SE Alabama was 78 today. I don't know what the record low maximum is but we had to be close. My high two days ago was 99.
Quoting sar2401:

I wouldn't count 5" in Florida as "epic" rainfall. The last time I was in Tampa, it seemed like we got 5" almost every day.


Maybe it's not "epic Floridian" rain fall, but it sure filled up the pound in my back yard pretty quick. And the average thunderstorm in FL produces 1"-2" per hour, the stronger ones 3"-5".
Did ya'll see the 18Z run of the GFS,SHOWS A POSSIBLE STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF AFFECTING TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
Thanks Wu Admin.
I see the Spark has been removed. I will do the same.
But ...... Nevermind.
Thanks for the calm heads and review.
Quoting sar2401:

Uh-oh, it's the GFS. Really, I think 92L has a chance to make the bright lights. After watching Andrea, I'm not discounting any possibilities now.

I feel the same way as you do. I am traveling tomorrow to stay in Homestead, FL for the next month...I think that this is going to be a very interesting season...
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Did ya'll see the 18Z run of the GFS,SHOWS A POSSIBLE STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF AFFECTING TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

No, it doesn't. It shows a possible storm that's going to affect the Bahamas...maybe. Do you have a link which shows your storm?
Axed.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Really!?

This is just crazy talk. GFS is suffering heat stroke or something.
I hadn't even starting looking at all the data yet on a regular basis. Let alone the trade winds and jet stream. I guess I'm going to have to start paying close attention already.
Speaking of, I appreciate all the updates everyone posted for TS Andrea throughout the track, from the first we have a blob to this is almost going to get to Hurricane strength.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Andrea's 11 p.m. public advisory

Andrea's 11 p.m. NHC discussion

Those dang links aren't working again, Brian. Just when you thought you had it all figured out too...:-)
Link
Quoting sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It shows a possible storm that's going to affect the Bahamas...maybe. Do you have a link which shows your storm?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Axed.

Chris 2006? Is that the one that Split in half overnight.
when we have name storms out there i would watch more on what we post and do in here be for you no it you could have a 24hr ban in no time from the admins when things get really going out there the admins will realy start watching the blog more
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Link

First, it's a user's blog, not a model
Second, Levi never mentions the GFS, only the CMC
Third, he only mentions an outside chance of low forming in the Gulf that would head toward Florida, not Texas and Louisiana

Seriously, stop spamming the blog with these kinds of posts.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Axed.




i have too admin it 92L is fighting the shear good so far
340. beell
Quoting sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It shows a possible storm that's going to affect the Bahamas...maybe. Do you have a link which shows your storm?




Do you have a link for a storm in the Bahamas?
The center seems to be near Hilliard.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Maybe it's not "epic Floridian" rain fall, but it sure filled up the pound in my back yard pretty quick. And the average thunderstorm in FL produces 1"-2" per hour, the stronger ones 3"-5".


Remember that rainfall rate means the rate at which rain would accumulate to if it fell that hard for one hour. Many of these squalls today had blinding downpours with extremely high rainfall rates as if always the case with tropical cyclones due the their nature of having extremely high concentrations of moisture in the atmosphere. However, many of these convective cells last 5 to 10 minutes at best. Rainfall rates in the stronger cells were producing 6 inch an hour rain rates...


The main feeder bands just raced through the area hence rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with some spots getting 5 or 6 was where things were kept at.

I've noticed though that tropical systems always bring the greatest flooding around here when it comes to rise in water of creeks and lakes. It's likely due to the very intense bursts of rain in convection.
Well we ended up with just over 4.5 inches here. The brings my 5 day total to a little over 9 inches. From feast to famine. We've had more rain in the last 5 days than our pathetic previous year to date through May of only 5.6 inches.

I'm very thankful the rainy season is reliable here after going through really dry periods like we had for a while this Spring. Yes some years are drier and some wetter but overall its reliable. I


Overall I'd say Andrea satisfied my expectations locally quite well. The convective bands were very strong at times, if Andrea hadn't have picked up and rocketed away. Rainfall amounts could have been much higher in the range of 8 to 12 in many spots.
We had some exciting squalls and lots of rain. Except for the tornadoes, Andrea was mostly fun and beneficial to the ecosystem.
Quoting sar2401:

Those dang links aren't working again, Brian. Just when you thought you had it all figured out too...:-)


When I link to the advisories themselves it doesn't work. It works when I link to the advisory archive. I don't know why. I did change them and they work now.
Quoting Tazmanian:
when we have name storms out there i would watch more on what we post and do in here be for you no it you could have a 24hr ban in no time from the admins when things get really going out there the admins will realy start watching the blog more

Taz, you are so correct. Things were a little slow and I posted a couple of things that weren't really weather related. I certainly know better when things heat up since I'm one of the ones that comes here for information and hate when people post items that are not weather related myself. Good to see you are still here for another exciting weather watching session.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Chris 2006? Is that the one that Split in half overnight.

Yes...

Quoting Tazmanian:
when we have name storms out there i would watch more on what we post and do in here be for you no it you could have a 24hr ban in no time from the admins when things get really going out there the admins will realy start watching the blog more

Yes Taz.
Wise advice.
Needed to be headed by us long timers and by those that feel immune or clever.

Thanks Taz.
I too frequently forget that when responding to others that get away with the same.

Quoting beell:



A GFS model out 12 days that shows a 1008 low in the Gulf off Mexico means we have a TS headed into Texas and Louisiana? At some point, these models really do get off into la-la land somewhere.
The atmosphere pattern is not good for 92L also!!!No way
Interesting ridge setup....



marked in red.
92L is a fighter so far

353. beell
Quoting sar2401:

A GFS model out 12 days that shows a 1008 low in the Gulf off Mexico means we have a TS headed into Texas and Louisiana? At some point, these models really do get off into la-la land somewhere.


Most of us are well aware of the reliability of models 10 days out.

You said the GFS did not show anything and asked for a link. I posted a graphic showing something.

:-)
Quoting Tazmanian:
92L is a fighter so far

Unless shear decrease it will be gone in the next 24 hours.
355. JRRP
356. Mikla
Someone asked about the radar image for the unconfirmed Waterspout in the FL Keys last night. I made a quick flash where you can see the Velocity Couplet and the associated Hook Echo... here

You can right click on the image to use the controls (e.g., Back/Forward/Rewind/etc).
No is gone imo it was ts but was overlook because of Andrea if Andrea hadn`t occur the NHC would have been more intersted in this system.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The center seems to be near Hilliard.


Just to the west of Hillard...
Quoting spathy:



spathy, I'm going to assume you really don't understand how to quote properly.

After hitting "quote", you'll be in the reply box. Go all the way to the end of any inserted text, hit enter, and start typing.

It's really hard to tell who's writing what if you don't use the quote feature correctly.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Just to the west of Hillard...

So, is it that area naked of clouds or what? I see the circulation but I'm having a hard visualizing the center.
361. beell
Quoting sar2401:

So, is it that area naked of clouds or what? I see the circulation but I'm having a hard visualizing the center.


If it lasts for more than 4 hours, see a meteorologist...
My New Blog I Posted Earlier

Goodnight Everyone!
Quoting beell:


Most of us are well aware of the reliability of models 10 days out.

You said the GFS did not show anything and asked for a link. I posted a graphic showing something.

:-)

Understood. It just didn't show what the OP was saying it showed. :-)
Good night Wu bloggers,
Just remember I only wish to provoke thought and response.
Its just a blog.
All be it a very good blog.

My posts and responses are only equal the the post that sparked it.
And usually less offensive even if more direct.


See you all on the next sunny side.
Quoting beell:


If it last for more than 4 hours, see a meteorologist...

LOL. Never talk like that to an old man. :-)
Spurs 88-83 Heat - 1:34 remaining, 4th quarter
LeBron James makes a layup and Danny Green gets called for a foul on Dwyane Wade in the act of making a three, giving Wade three shots on the free throw line.

Quoting Mikla:
Someone asked about the radar image for the Waterspout in the FL Keys last night. I made a quick flash where you can see the Velocity Couplet and the associated Hook Echo... here

You can right click on the image to use the controls (e.g., Back/Forward/Rewind/etc).

Nice job. One of the better hook echos I've seen. Was it confirmed on the ground? If so, what was the rating?
"Quoting sar2401:"

"spathy, I'm going to assume you really don't understand how to quote properly.

After hitting "quote", you'll be in the reply box. Go all the way to the end of any inserted text, hit enter, and start typing.

It's really hard to tell who's writing what if you don't use the quote feature correctly."

End Sars quote.

SPATHYS RESPONSE:

Thanks Sar.
Thats very kind information.

But as soon as I can afford a new computer I will convert to New WU.
I am only moderately computer incompetent.
Its not me, its old computer and old WU configuration incompatibility.

I have successfully quoted ;here on Wu,nearly as long as you.

Would you like to talk about something substantive in regards to my statements or just be a kindly computer tutor?
TIA :O)

369. MTWX
May or may not get her toes wet again (not.. in my opinion)

Looks to be crossing into SE Georgia now...

Link
370. Mikla
Quoting sar2401:

Nice job. One of the better hook echos I've seen. Was it confirmed on the ground? If so, what was the rating?

You know what?... that is a good question. I saw some press that there was a confirmed spout, but now that I think of it, maybe it was a different one. So I should probably say "Unconfirmed" in my post above.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Spurs 88-83 Heat - 1:34 remaining, 4th quarter
LeBron James makes a layup and Danny Green gets called for a foul on Dwyane Wade in the act of making a three, giving Wade three shots on the free throw line.


Yankees 6, Indians 4...heartbreaking, as usual. Oh, wait, you're talking about some other kind of sport...in June? What have we come to? :)
Sorry. Last Blog Link Didnt work. Here you go

Check it out if you're Interested. Goodnight.
Quoting spathy:



It's hard to talk about anything substantive if I can't tell who's writing. Use the URL http://classic.wunderground.com. It's the old site and will work with any kind of computer. Unless you just want to be rebellious, how hard is it to go to the end of a text block and hit enter?

Edit: As you can also see, none of your reply to me shows up when I quote back, since the computer thinks it's all part of a reply two posts back. That makes it impossible for anyone to figue out, for example, why I'm writing you about quoting.
Quoting sar2401:

It's hard to talk about anything substantive if I can't tell who's writing. Use the URL http://classic.wunderground.com. It's the old site and will work with any kind of computer. Unless you just want to be rebellious, how hard is it to go to the end of a text block and hit enter?


you have been COMPLAINING all day..aint it time for you to go to bed..it has to be exhausting..
Quoting ncstorm:


you have been COMPLAINING all day..aint it time for you to go to bed..it has to be exhausting..

Complaining? I thought I was trying to be helpful. My days are rarely exhausting, being a retired bum, but it sounds like you've had rough day.
Classic comma shape. Andrea is likely already subtropical.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Sorry. Last Blog Link Didnt work. Here you go

Check it out if you're Interested. Goodnight.

Nice blog, Tyler. I'm not complaining, but figures 1 and 3 don't show up for me. :-)
Good Night Peeps, Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Stay Dry - Keep Radios Handy...

Quoting sar2401:

It's hard to talk about anything substantive if I can't tell who's writing. Use the URL http://classic.wunderground.com. It's the old site and will work with any kind of computer. Unless you just want to be rebellious, how hard is it to go to the end of a text block and hit enter?

Its very hard if the text block/window is only 1/8" wide.
Sometimes it larger and sometimes is barely visible.
Do you get the picture?
Or will you continue to complain and disregard the subjects of my posts.
I have a very old computer.
And I had no problem before "New WU"

Is the " " and end Quote /Spathy response helping any?

I have no option and must click multiple times to even post in the quote window!

Please dont make the process degrading and embarrassing.

Please click between these lines to post   (")

How about you click between these lines...

(-)

Get it?

Move on please and converse about substantive things.

Andrea starting to look like subtropical
There's a bunch of convection popping up to the NW of 92L's center, despite being right in the crosshairs of 50 knot shear. It's certainly being blown about, but it also isn't dying.

It'll be interesting to see what it looks like in the morning. Once the rest of it has all entered that jet of shear, it's improbable it will live for long. But that's what's fun about this - improbable isn't impossible.
Reminds me of Irene...anemic center with little rain on the coast and heavy rain well inland

All the talk about quoting lead me to experiment. It was ugly. Apologies.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

Quoting MTWX:
May or may not get her toes wet again (not.. in my opinion)

Looks to be crossing into SE Georgia now...

Link


Looks like she's going into the Atlantic near Brunsiwick, GA.... Anyone else think age will make it off shore?

Andrea was fun to follow. Like how she appeared quickly and now has vanished quickly; without copious amounts of rain or widespread destruction. More than the average amount of twisters for a TS though, that's what I'll remember most about Andrea.

Quoting spathy:


This is what I see when I quote.
If there is even a box to find a place to type in.
I have to scroll around and click incessantly to even find where the words will show up,and the quote results arent consistent.
I never know what window/if any I will have to find a place to type in.
OK I got It just copy and paste.
Been there done that.
God forbid what I copy and paste is in bold. Then everything I type afterwards is bold.

Not everyone is wealthy enough to have the latest in tech!
Get over it and be compassionate.

388. JRRP
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Looks like she's going into the Atlantic near Brunsiwick, GA.... Anyone else think age will make it off shore?



I think so too. We'll see how the winds turn at the obs sites.
Quoting spathy:



Never mind. If you can figure out how to make things bold and in big letters, you can figure out how to quote...or not.
Andrea will get her feet wet again as she darts NE ahead of the trough but won't be a TS anymore. Transition has to be happening now unless that shallow convection near the center can blow up again.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
All the talk about quoting lead me to experiment. It was ugly. Apologies.

End Brian quote....


Thanks Brian.
Do the experiment again and I assure you it could be worse

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I think so too. See how the winds turn.


Agreed
Center appears to be due west of Fernadinda Beach, approaching the FL/GA Border
sar24
Thats a cool pic of Death Valley.
Do you live near there?

Change of subject would be nice and I will work around quoting.


Does this work?

390. sar2401 4:10 AM GMT
"Never mind. If you can figure out how to make things bold and in big letters, you can figure out how to quo"

End quote.
Spathy response:

Its quite arduous but does it relay the separation clearly enough ?

This is an actual question for anyone.
I see my quotes and how they appear. I understand the confusion.
What form would make it easier for those reading to comprehend the separation?

I know this is off topic and trivial to most but possibly others are having the same problem.


Find more about Weather in Rydalmere, New South Wales, Australia
My Weather Forecast

Quoting spathy:
sar24
Thats a cool pic of Death Valley.
Do you live near there?

Change of subject would be nice and I will work around quoting.


Does this work?

390. sar2401 4:10 AM GMT
"Never mind. If you can figure out how to make things bold and in big letters, you can figure out how to quo"

End quote.
Spathy response:

Its quite arduous but does it relay the separation clearly enough ?

This is an actual question for anyone.
I see my quotes and how they appear. I understand the confusion.
What form would make it easier for those reading to comprehend the separation?

I know this is off topic and trivial to most but possibly others are having the same problem.




I was confused by what you were posting at first but after awhile I figured out you were having difficulties with the quoting feature. In the past, I have seen people reference the post number instead of actually quoting it. People would have to scroll up to see what post you are talking about but it might be a way around the issue you are having.
Quoting spathy:


Funny, when I quote that, 392...

Nothingness

an empty box
an empty brain
an empty walk
down lovers lane

sometimes an airplane nose
sometimes a human
each in its own way needs
an attitude adjustment

Good night
Sleep tight
Pedley's gone to Rubidoux
To fly a PA 12
Quoting winter123:
Classic comma shape. Andrea is likely already subtropical.


Becoming baroclinc as expected.
84hrs GFS....



Dissipates, then 168 hrs..... another low...

397. OceanMoan 4:29 AM GMT on June 07, 2013

Thanks :O)
401, you are welcome. :-)
Storms exhibiting rotation are moving northwest towards the shoreline. These should pass south of me, but I'm sure I'll see closer calls overnight..

GFS 00z









MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PARTS OF SC/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070449Z - 070545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL PARTS OF
SC AND NC AFTER 05Z...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.


DISCUSSION...OFFSHORE SUPERCELLS ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE BROADER
NERN QUADRANT OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST MAY BE ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY AS CELLS
APPROACH THE SHORE. INLAND DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED
OWING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SFC PRESSURE FALLS
LEADING THE CENTER OF ANDREA MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SFC WINDS
POTENTIALLY ATTAIN MORE OF AN ESELY COMPONENT. LTX VWP DATA INDICATE
A LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SUPPORTING OVER 300 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM
SRH...AND THIS COULD YIELD STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH A
TORNADO THREAT INVOF THE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/07/2013
Quoting spathy:
sar24
Thats a cool pic of Death Valley.
Do you live near there?

Change of subject would be nice and I will work around quoting.


Does this work?

Yes, it works well enough, although I think you'd have an easier time using the classic.wunderground link I gave you. I really hate the new site layout, so I'll use the old one for as long as WU keeps it up. BTW, I'm using a seven year old laptop, so I don't have the lastest and greatest in technology either. I'm also 67, so I'm not a computer whiz kid.

Lived in California for 40 years. I always loved the desert, but Death Valley in particular. I love Alabama but do miss the wide open spaces of the desert sometimes.
Don't be a star
Stay where you are
Or be a victim of...
The Curse of the Creeping Supercells

Take care in NC and SC.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms exhibiting rotation are moving northwest towards the shoreline. These should pass south of me, but I'm sure I'll see closer calls overnight..

You got a knack for this stuff, 13. Too bad it's not day light.
No way around a TUTT, adios 92L.

Quoting sar2401:

Yes, it works well enough, although I think you'd have an easier time using the classic.wunderground link I gave you. I really hate the new site layout, so I'll use the old one for as long as WU keeps it up. BTW, I'm using a seven year old laptop, so I don't have the lastest and greatest in technology either. I'm also 67, so I'm not a computer whiz kid.

Lived in California for 40 years. I always loved the desert, but Death Valley in particular. I love Alabama but do miss the wide open spaces of the desert sometimes.


That's what I miss the most about El Paso. And watching the moon race across the sky and set behind the mountains. I think I may be a desert person at heart. Boy am I far from home. Lol.
I think Andrea was well on her way to subtropical upon landfall. Dry air intrusion quickly invaded South FL.
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z









So, the GFS has a low that develops in the Gulf of Honduras on the 17th, and slowly meanders up into the Gulf, where it spins contently up to the 20th, 13 days from now.

I wonder how long it will be before the GFS has 30 day models? :-)
Andrea is not lookin so hot now I think 5am will be her last advisory but I can never tell with extropical transitions
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's what I miss the most about El Paso. And watching the moon race across the sky and set behind the mountains. I think I may be a desert person at heart. Boy am I far from home. Lol.

Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.
Quoting sar2401:

Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.


Lol. Gotta admit you are farther from a desert than I am. Didn't know there were armadillos in Alabama. :)
If anyone would like a free weather widget for there blog, just go >> HERE <<

Find more about Weather in Jacksonville, Florida, United States Of America
Weather Forecast

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I think Andrea was well on her way to subtropical upon landfall. Dry air intrusion quickly invaded South FL.

It invaded Alabama also. We had a nice healthy squall line headed our way from Mississippi. It hit the Alabama dry slot and literally dissolved on radar within two hours. The area east and south of Atlanta sure don't have much dry air. It's been raining there all day, as Andrea's left side seems to have hardly moved.
419. JRRP

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Gotta admit you are farther from a desert than I am. Didn't know there were armadillos in Alabama. :)

Me either, until I started investigating the source of those mini-canyons in the backyard. They are nocturnal, so it took several nights of no sleep and about 20 rounds of 00 buck before I mostly cleaned them out of the woods behind the yard. Their buddies apparently passed the word along about this armed, angry Yankee's yard, because they never troubled me much after the massacre. :-)
Quoting JRRP:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

"It's dead, Jim". Too bad it will never get the name it richly deserved. Only the fish will remember it now.
Going to bed now even though I don't want to because I'm concerned a random tornado will come out of nowhere, lol. Night.

Wrote a blog earlier for those that didn't see it:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New blog, if you wish to read.

Tropical Storm Andrea moves ashore; Invest 92L and the outlook for the rest of June
I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z










I was gonna say,what's the CMC say? but don't think it goes out that far....lol
Does anyone know of a good site for weekly rainfall totals for the cities of Florida?....as opposed to checking for each one, one at a time?
It's midnight in Soo Cal
And the bloggers are recovering from the last 24 hours.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.
What I remember in 2005 were some waves that not only produce 1 system it produce two.Like Franklin and Gert and Alpha and Beta.
Quoting allancalderini:
What I remember in 2005 were some waves that not only produce 1 system it produce two.Like Franklin and Gert and Alpha and Beta.


Maybe the GFS system in 12 days
Is one still allowed to upload a new avatar? I didnt see where one could in settings........anybody?
I must be blocked by everybody!
We had Igor,Julia and Karl when i joined the blog in 2010.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is one still allowed to upload a new avatar? I didnt see where one could in settings........anybody?
i havent been able to upload either an avatar or any photos, even emailed help havent gotten reply yet
has to be a way...ask a mod when we see one....everybody has avatars
Weather at Wrightsville Beach, NC really went downhill with the last band of rain. Winds gusting probably 40-45 mph
Andrea circulation off GA coast?
Thats good sleeping or you know what weather.
Can,t complain about the weather in Soo Cal....low 80's and now dropping into the 50's and dry,not much humidity....could be 104 and 74


look at that little band near Bonita Springs FL
Tropical Storm ANDREA
...ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

5:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 7
Location: 32.4°N 80.7°W
Moving: NE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST June 7 2013
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) near 14.0N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. ANDREA HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.


What would Presslord say?
update!
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.


Good morning Kori and the rest. Yes,I agree with this but there is a new wave that was introduced at 06z behind 92L that may also help on that.
my character nailed this one its about time. how did the character do it. took and passed 101 atlantic cyclone climateology
Well, looks like Andrea wants to make my weekend wet... :|
450. SuzK
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z










What IS that thing??? Super-yikes!
Any chance of 92L forming after 48 hours? the NHC gives it a near 0% chance of forming in the next 48 hours...
452. SuzK
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z










Link
Morning all.



Looks like we're going to have a stormy Labour Day holiday here in the Bahamas. It's definitely still overcast outside, and I'm not sure how much additional rain we'll get today.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is one still allowed to upload a new avatar? I didnt see where one could in settings........anybody?
Quoting SandBoxParamedic:
i havent been able to upload either an avatar or any photos, even emailed help havent gotten reply yet
Try this:

http://help.wunderground.com/knowledgebase/articl es/129124-how-can-i-add-a-photo-to-my-blog-profile -
Not much to see here!
Just move along!!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.



Looks like we're going to have a stormy Labour Day holiday here in the Bahamas. It's definitely still overcast outside, and I'm not sure how much additional rain we'll get today.


I feel like this will be a bad year for you, the Carribean, the Gulf, and me here in Florida :/. That ridging will not be nice to us.
Looks like Andrea is making the transition to a post-tropical storm. There may be some slight strengthening later on due to baroclinical processes, but that won't happen atm. Heavy rain and tornadoes remain the main threats with the wind threat dying down for now. Anyone on the east coast needs to keep on paying attention to Andrea.

I've been super busy this whole week so I haven't been able to blog about Andrea or 92L, something I'll do tomorrow.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I feel like this will be a bad year for you, the Carribean, the Gulf, and me here in Florida :/. That ridging will not be nice to us.
I [+1] this, not because I like it, but because I think you are right. My only hope is that this early setting up of the high is going to change in July and give us a setup with more troughing between Bermuda and the east coast.

Not actually expecting it, though...

Quoting BahaHurican:
I [+1] this, not because I like it, but because I think you are right. My only hope is that this early setting up of the high is going to change in July and give us a setup with more troughing between Bermuda and the east coast.

Not actually expecting it, though...
Considering that my new house is in a flood zone In an area decimated by Hurricane Andrew I'm not liking that Bermuda High.
You guys can't seem to dry out. Is the an abundance of water on the island?
co2now.org


399.89

Quoting FIUStormChaser:

Considering that my new house is in a flood zone In an area decimated by Hurricane Andrew I'm not liking that Bermuda High.
You guys can't seem to dry out. Is the an abundance of water on the island?
I'm just glad we didn't get more heavy downpours dumping on us the last couple days... we prolly picked up 20-25 inches of rain in the last ten days, and considerably more on the eastern end of New Providence. I haven't been checking totals for the other NW Bahamas islands, but I'd expect their totals have been similar.

Which is one reason why I am not looking at the potential for 92L to head our way anytime soon...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Right now in Central North Carolina, it's pouring. My area is under flash flood warning and is one county to west of tornado watch. However, the winds are not showing up here so it just feel like what heavy rainstorms do here and not a tropical storm. Andrea's center should be right over us by now.
something spinning in the Gulf of Mexico
Well I wouldn't write 92L off...It might pull a "K" on us..wait to find favorable conditions near he U.S..but struggled in the Atlantic due to the same thing 92L is facing..The CMC does show a low off Florida in 10 days..

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm just glad we didn't get more heavy downpours dumping on us the last couple days... we prolly picked up 20-25 inches of rain in the last ten days, and considerably more on the eastern end of New Providence. I haven't been checking totals for the other NW Bahamas islands, but I'd expect their totals have been similar.

Which is one reason why I am not looking at the potential for 92L to head our way anytime soon...

Yeah.. Good think good ole shear will kill it before it comes anywhere near here.

Appears that Andrea is in the process of extratropical transition:

what is that spin with t.storm on land in the Gulf of Mexico
Quoting hurricanes2018:
what is that spin with t.storm on land in the Gulf of Mexico
The gulf is being blasted with shear and dry air so I doubt anything will form..
Look like the worst of Andrea is passing to east of me judging by radar. Still pouring rain though.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Look like the worst of Andrea is passing to east of me judging by radar. Still pouring rain though.
Her COC is down in SC, so we still have some heavy rain on the way.
Morning/Evening,

In NE Florida, we got some good rains and twigs with green leaves are down. One power flicker...but Not the 38 mph winds forecast nor the impressive flooding. I fear the early out that some of us took in the face of those predictions and the scary radar images, may be the first cry wolf of this season.
480. SLU
CSU identified the 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011 hurricane seasons as possible analog years for 2013. So let us analyse these years to determine what sort of trends that obtained in these seasons and may also occur this year.

1. They were all extremely active years with an average of 17-9-5 (ACE 164).

2. They all featured active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 6.6 named storms forming south of 20 north and east of the Caribbean.

3. They all got off to very rapid starts with and average of 3.6 named storms before August 1st.

4. They featured 16.0 named storm days, 6.25 hurricane days and 2.0 major hurricane days south of 23.5 north and east of 75 west before August 1st which is a strong indicator of an active season.

5. An average of 1.0 major hurricanes per year made landfall in the US in those years.

6. An average of 1.8 major hurricanes per year tracked through the Caribbean.

7. An average of 1.6 category 5 hurricanes formed in those years.

8. An average of 3.2 named storms affected the eastern Caribbean.

All named storms in the analog years of 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

All named storms in the analog years of 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011 before August 1st.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Based on this analysis, I believe that the following factors are possible in 2013:

1. A rapid start to the season with 3 - 5 named storms pre-August 1st.

2. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 23.5 north and east of 75 west.

3. A high chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the US.

4. Multiple major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

5. Between 7 - 10 named storms originating from the deep tropics east of the Caribbean.

6. A high chance of at least 1 category 5 hurricane given the warm SST's.

7. A high probability of between 2 - 4 tropical cyclones hitting the eastern Caribbean.

8. The high impact areas being the eastern and northern Caribbean and the US east coast with the highest impact probability centered around Florida.

9. My prediction for the season issued in early April stands at 15 - 19 named storms, 6 - 10 hurricanes and 3 - 5 major hurricanes.
240HR GFS

GFS 252HR

CMC at 240
12Z CMC and 0Z CMC off NE FL
12Z at 240HR

now 0Z at 216HR
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A very nice 68 degrees here with a cool breeze.

TS Andrea goes through Florida and most still have power. A couple of small storms go through and then some simple rain and we lose electric after dinner. It didn't come back on until after 1:30 this morning. sigh.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, fruit crepes, apple and blueberry muffins, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy.
Another Charleston report. I braved the storm and drove to work this morning in a driving drizzle. Never seen rain fall quite like that - definitely a drizzle, but instead of gently falling straight down, it had a slanted trajectory. Storm damage was limited to a few leaves down on the back patio. I even got up (slightly) early this morning in hopes of seeing an "eye" of sorts, but alas, it was all cloudy and I think the eye was further inland or further along, if there was indeed even one to be seen.
Good rain for S FL today!

good Morning..

well its official, we have a tropical storm in our area..my trashcan blew over..no rain though..those QPC maps were off..

I'm out for the day... Enjoy your Friday, and happy Labour Day to all the Bahamians out there...
6z GFS is showing a possible tropical cyclone in mid-June developing over the northwestern Caribbean, then crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and moving across the Gulf of Mexico, and finally making landfall between Mexico and southernmost Texas.

6z GFS at 228 hours:



6z GFS at 276 hours:

Quoting Patrap:
co2now.org


399.89



In the process of hitting the fan.

Hey all; I hope everbody is safe and sound. --- The circulation of 92L is shredded as MIMIC shows.

BBL, greatings from sunny Mainz/Germany (streaming weather webcam).
491. ARiot
Quoting sar2401:

Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.


Armadillos were common along the Gulf Coast when I was a kid in the early 80s.

That was around the same time a few were spotted up off the coastal gulf areas, at least by the late 80s.

Now they are invading parts well north into the middle south, except the tallest peaks.

There's much to read about their exceptional spread, faster than most mammals were thought to spread.

A warming climate is most-likely the main cause. The spread of blackberries on abandoned farms (1.5 million acres worth around NEA/NWG/Chatt.TN) may also be a driver of their movement, according to a few articles I read. But when you go from a mean of 37 in the winter to 45 in the winter over two decades, you will have some new visitors.

I live up by the TN AL border and they are well established here.

They also carry some nasty diseases.
Quoting Lizziebeth10:
Another Charleston report. I braved the storm and drove to work this morning in a driving drizzle. Never seen rain fall quite like that - definitely a drizzle, but instead of gently falling straight down, it had a slanted trajectory. Storm damage was limited to a few leaves down on the back patio.


LOL, this really made me laugh ;) It was much the same over here in the Summerville area, we barely got any wind and not much more rain than your typical rainstorm. Not even a single overnight warning on the weather radio!

I do, however, feel for those who got absolutely drenched in Florida and had to deal with those tornadoes yesterday. Thankfully, that was not the case for us!
Good Morning All..
Some alarming news this am..
See my blog Post # 582..
Whomever asked about 92L. well, here it is, or what is left of it.





92L INVEST 30kts 1009mb 14.3N 48.1W
Yesterday's event in SE TX


Note the white ball in the middle of photo near the ground, that is the Houston/Galveston NWS Doppler radar







Beautiful day shaping up here in Southern Illinois. A great start to the weekend. :-) Happy Friday everyone! :D And thank for the yummy breakfast, ainslainpaps!

Natalie/Southern Illinois

74 degrees here with 87%rh and dew at 70..
Mostly cloudy with calm winds..
50% chance of rain..

Beach looks pretty good..
Double red flags for rip current..
Possible yellow later on today..

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 5m
Funnel cloud reported from the tower at the Goldsboro, Airport. #ncwx
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