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Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Guys nice coverage,I think we have over 1000 comments now in less than 24 hours.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I bet fried crow might taste good. Some say it taste like chicken. Folks I'm just playing this morning.

Anyways look at this squall line coming ashore on the west coast of Florida.



Just wanted to pop in real quick (busy busy) and offer my congratulations on your forecasts of the past 2 days. I saw a lot of folks doing some major poo pooing on your predictions (I myself was thinking you missed the intensity mark last night), which as we all now know was pretty much spot on.

Have a safe day everyone. I'll check in later.

PS - visit my blog (term used loosely) for the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide. Suggestions are appreciated!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The Big Bend of Florida is actually one of the "safe" zones in Florida with a relatively low number of core landfalls. Out problem here is when major storms head towards the Panhandle and the storm surges devastate our coastal homes and businesses. As out Panhandle freinds know, their location is one of the most active for landfalling hurricanes headed into the Gulf.


I know that the continental shelf on the ocean is extremely shallow in that part of the State. So I could image to carnage a surge from even a category one might do.
1004. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


15:45 UTC.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I heard it comes back at 1545 UTC (11:45 am EDT) today.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




*Update #21 *

GOES-13, at 75 degrees West, will return to GOES-East operations on
Thursday, June 6, 2013, at approximately 1534 -1545 UTC (first image at
1545 UTC). Derived products from GOES-13 will begin immediately
following the switchover.

GOES-13 re-activation is proceeding nominally. GOES-13 Sounder remains
off during the outgassing process. The outgassing is proceeding
nominally, and is being done to reduce noise and improve the medium and
short-wave sounder channel products. The outgassing will end on June 5,
2013, at approximately 0359 UTC followed by a cooling off period.
Sounder will be turned on and begin imaging on June 6, 2013, at
approximately 0030 UTC and will be 'within specifications' at
approximately 0359 UTC.



great stuff
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Oh yeah. Forgot her.
But you are right we will have to see if a trend is set here on more west coast FL. landfalls.
It's been raining buckets here in Port Saint Lucie in East Central Fl.

We are under a tornado watch as well.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
758 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE CARRABELLE 29.87N 84.64W
06/06/2013 M4.50 INCH FRANKLIN FL EMERGENCY MNGR

4.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 5 HRS
Quoting mikatnight:


Just wanted to pop in real quick (busy busy) and offer my congratulations on your forecasts of the past 2 days. I saw a lot of folks doing some major poo pooing on your predictions (I myself was thinking you missed the intensity mark last night), which as we all now know was pretty much spot on.

Have a safe day everyone. I'll check in later.

PS - visit my blog (term used loosely) for the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide. Suggestions are appreciated!


Any damage by you. Here in Orlando traffic signals are blown down in areas as the wind is increasing steadily this morning.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I couldn't have called this any better. I mean really!

So where is this 70 mph tropical storm? I see 60. (I said 50 knt peak btw).
Andrea is intensifying right now. Wow!!

Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I know that the continental shelf on the ocean is extremely shallow in that part of the State. So I could image to carnage a surge from even a category one might do.


Correct; portions of HWY 98 on the coast wash out every year if a big one hits the Panhandle.....Keeps some of the locals employed after h-season rebuilding it......
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So where is this 70 mph tropical storm? I see 60.

60mph to 70mph is what he said.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is intensifying right now. Wow!!



Moving more east.
I wonder how bad the storm surge will be in Tampa as Andrea passes just to the north. I suspect some section of Downtown Tampa might flood as the surge comes in.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Any damage by you. Here in Orlando traffic signals are blown down in areas as the wind is increasing steadily this morning.



Tornado Warnings...reports of poss touchdown in Loxahatchee. Bunch of rain last several minutes. Exciting, but much to do...
So it looks to me like it will be a 70 or 75mph storm before landfall in FL. It will probably weaken to a 50 mph storm over FL but since FL is so flat, the weakening will likely be limited... After emerging, she will stay a 50mph storm until the transition to Post tropical status. After that, she will become stronger and larger with maybe 55-60 mph but as non tropical. These are just my ideas... Nothing official about them :)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So where is this 70 mph tropical storm? I see 60.


I said 60 to 70 mph and it looks the next update might have 70 mph as andrea is putting on a show this am.
Wow, 60 mph! I'm surprised! I guess I'm going to get some of it here in Palatka
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
So it looks to me like it will be a 70 or 75mph storm before landfall in FL. It will probably weaken to a 50 mph storm over FL but since FL is so flat, the weakening will likely be limited... After emerging, she will stay a 50mph storm until the transition to Post tropical status. After that, she will become stronger and larger with maybe 55-60 mph but as non tropical. These are just my ideas... Nothing official about them :)


Somebody who really knows what they're doing please add your ideas... Thanks!
1022. pcola57


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Correct; portions of HWY 98 on the coast wash out every year if a big one hits the Panhandle.....Keeps some of the locals employed after h-season rebuilding it......

That is for sure.
The core actually looks great!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Moving more east.


Yeah all this talk about the Tampa Sheild well it looks as if Andrea has destroyed it.
Here in Naples, we haven't seen the sun since Sunday morning; it's been four days of overcast skies, rainforest-level humidity, and the occasional passing shower. Yet despite initial calls of possible flood watches and, initially, 5" to 8" or more of rain, we've officially received less than 1.2" for the entire month--and that's counting some that fell before The Great Southwest Florida Rainfall Event Of June 2013 began. Hardly the Noah-like deluge some envisioned, but I suppose it's better than being dry, so that's good news. But the even better news: we can finally stop this silly nonsense about some phantom "Tampa shield".

At least until next week... ;-)
1027. pcola57
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1028. Pallis
Quoting mikatnight:


Just wanted to pop in real quick (busy busy) and offer my congratulations on your forecasts of the past 2 days. I saw a lot of folks doing some major poo pooing on your predictions (I myself was thinking you missed the intensity mark last night), which as we all now know was pretty much spot on.

Have a safe day everyone. I'll check in later.

PS - visit my blog (term used loosely) for the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide. Suggestions are appreciated!

I was not sure how far north it would travel last night, but it looks like the storm intensity is heading right about on the northern part of my prediction range this morning. Sarasota/Tampa.
think shes done peaking cooler water maybe
Look like a Hurricane hit up the street from me! and the rain is coming down big time now!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I said 60 to 70 mph and it looks the next update might have 70 mph as andrea is putting on a show this am.


a 70mph storm isnt out of the question, but her north quadrant is looking a bit ragged near the eye, I think some dry air got in which might impede her a bit.
1032. gator23
Quoting Pallis:

I was not sure how far north it would travel last night, but it looks like the storm intensity is heading right about on the northern part of my prediction range this morning. Sarasota/Tampa.


If you look at the wundermap you can see the core of the winds are not there.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah all this talk about the Tampa Sheild well it looks as if Andrea has destroyed it.

I laugh every time I hear that term mentioned. But at the same time, I cringe. I also cringe when I hear of folks up in Chicago think that a tornado can NEVER impact them because of Lake Michigan. That folk-lore type mindset completely contradicts science and will get people caught off guard or in big trouble.

I suppose it's one thing to joke about it with a laugh with Folks to make small talk and lighten the mood. But I know people that think that there is serious truth to these myths and it's kinda scary.
She's also entering colder bend water now, it's going to be a rough time for her starting now. I dont think she will weaken much if any, but it's going to be hard for her to continue strengthening. Though very possible!
1035. ncstorm
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I couldn't have called this any better. I mean really!



Good job Scott..

Im off to work people..its all in good fun and has been part of this blog since I started with the crow jokes..I can say a lot of people are getting their crow "feathers" ruffled but if those that had been wrong and Andrea didnt intensify, then a lot of "roosters" would have awaken the blog this morning crowing about how right they were..

in all the Almanac beat everyone on the blog..


Quoting Neapolitan:
Here in Naples, we haven't seen the sun since Sunday morning; it's been four days of overcast skies, rainforest-level humidity, and the occasional passing shower. Yet despite initial calls of possible flood watches and, initially, 5" to 8" or more of rain, we've officially received less than 1.2" for the entire month--and that's counting some that fell before The Great Southwest Florida Rainfall Event Of June 2013 began. Hardly the Noah-like deluge some envisioned, but I suppose it's better than being dry, so that's good news. But the even better news: we can finally stop this silly nonsense about some phantom "Tampa shield".

At least until next week... ;-)

We can only wish...
Well first storm of the season, and current NHC track takes it directly over my house. Good, let's get it over with on a TS, and let the bad stuff hit the fish.
Andrea actually reminds me of Alberto from 2006..

Yikes !!!
Quoting pcola57:
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




Yikes !!!
1040. russh46
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I wonder how bad the storm surge will be in Tampa as Andrea passes just to the north. I suspect some section of Downtown Tampa might flood as the surge comes in.



The advisory is calling for 2-5 feet for tamp northward.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah all this talk about the Tampa Sheild well it looks as if Andrea has destroyed it.


Hardly. That happens when a major barrels into Tampa Bay. Not when a TS drops some rain.
1042. gator23
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah all this talk about the Tampa Sheild well it looks as if Andrea has destroyed it.


Well it didn't hit Tampa it wont make landfall near Tampa and the core of the winds are not near Tampa. Sure they are getting walloped with rain but the shield is still in place until there is a direct strike IMO
There is no such thing as this so called "Tampa Shield." The Tampa area took a direct hit in 1921, was hit again in 1950 by Easy, was hit yet again in 1966 by Alma, and took a backdoor hit from Frances and Jeanne in 2004. I hope that clears up some misnomer. :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is no such thing as this so called "Tampa Shield." The Tampa area took a direct hit in 1921, was hit again in 1950 by Easy, was hit yet again in 1966 by Alma, and took a backdoor hit from Frances and Jeanne in 2004. I hope that clears up some misnomer. :)


So many of you folks in Tampa have been saying for how long already that it seem Tampa has a weather shield in place.
1045. hydrus
1046. cabice
Definitely moving more to the east.
1047. xcool
props to the cmc model
Latest GFS (06Z) Total Accumulated Precipitation Amounts Out to 96 Hours.

From Charleston NWS this AM:

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL ROLL INTO SE GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING
AND ACCELERATE PAST THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SE SOUTH CAROLINA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT INTO THE LOW COUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER
DAYBREAK ON FRI. DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANDREA WILL BE FELT INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG
THE COAST.

OUR FOREMOST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM RIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH BALLPARK AND WHILE THE
LOW WILL BE CLIPPING ALONG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AN IMPRESSIVE
MIX OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE A
LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS. THESE RAINS WILL BE FALLING ON SOGGY
SOILS WITH A TIDE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE ECMWF DISPLACES THE
HIGHEST QPF A BIT TO THE W OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW THE 06Z GFS HAS
A SIMILAR QPF PLACEMENT. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF WE SOME
LOCATIONS OVER 5-6 INCHES GIVEN THESE TRENDS.

A WINDOW FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ALONG THE COAST AS STRONG
SHEAR WILL EXIST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEYOND 20 KFT AND BEST INSTABILITY PROGGED MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE COLLABORATED WITH SPC OVERNIGHT AND THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARED JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT GIVEN SUBTLE
DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ANDREA.

WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS.



Sounds like we could have a significant coastal flooding event tonight when you combine torrential rain, saturated ground, high tide, and a 1-2 foot surge on top. Poor drainage areas in metro Savannah and Charleston could be in for a bad night.
Last night was an interesting time in S Tampa. I got woken up by a very gusty T'Storm (probably the same one that spawned a tornado across the bay). This incoming squall line looks mean.
1051. hydrus
Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is no such thing as this so called "Tampa Shield." The Tampa area took a direct hit in 1921, was hit again in 1950 by Easy, was hit yet again in 1966 by Alma, and took a backdoor hit from Frances and Jeanne in 2004. I hope that clears up some misnomer. :)
They took a nice beating from Agnes too, and several other no name storms also.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Look like a Hurricane hit up the street from me! and the rain is coming down big time now!!
Details? Pictures? Maybe a weak tornado?
Tornado touched down in the acreage which outside of Royal Palm Beach. My friend's ex-husband's house was hit directly. Windows are blown out, and trees are down.
Power lines are down, and the school buses are still picking up kids for school.Just a typical rainy day in South Florida.

Quoting cabice:
Definitely moving more to the east.


East of the Models?
tornado

Quoting Chapelhill:
Details? Pictures? Maybe a weak tornado?
Andrea is becoming more impressive with the convection wrapping around the center and featuring a good curved band to the southeast on both satellite and radar images.
1057. RevInFL
It is dumping buckets right now in North Brevard. Thankfully, it looks like we will have a little break until this afternoon. Just depends how fast this junk moves.
Composite doppler radar loops when a storm is approaching a US landfall are a wonderful thing to watch and tool for local forecasters to let folks know when bands are headed inshore.

With that being said, and looking at loops at the moment, some nice large banding features at the moment on Andrea which are about to come ashore in Florida all the way from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay simultaneously......Impressinve.
Good morning from a soggy Longboat Key! Surf is up and it's dark and gloomy. Another band moving on shore now. I'm hoping to make it up to the north end of the island later today to check on flooding up there.
1060. palmpt
Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is no such thing as this so called "Tampa Shield." The Tampa area took a direct hit in 1921, was hit again in 1950 by Easy, was hit yet again in 1966 by Alma, and took a backdoor hit from Frances and Jeanne in 2004. I hope that clears up some misnomer. :)


I have family in Tampa. They have used their generator a number of times in the past few years. But the shield is a reference to a direct hit from the Gulf, accompanied by worse-case scenario storm surge that would change the face of the Tampa-St. Pete region.
1062. RevInFL
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
tornado



Yeah it looks like one of Florida's infamous rain-wrapped EF-0 tornadoes, though it could have been a micro-burst. Doesn't look like straight-line damage.
The real story with this storm is going to be what it does to the North-East USA. The CMC, which has been 90% accurate with this storm, is showing Andrea strengthening into a Cat 1 Extra-Tropical Storm around Long Island/Conneticut/Rode Island

(cant really call it a Hurricane since it will be more Nor'easterly in structure by that point, but it will have the same wind impacts as a Hurricane of the same strength, but a larger wind field...IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT LIKE THE CMC PREDICTS)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


So many of you folks in Tampa have been saying for how long already that it seem Tampa has a weather shield in place.


There is no such thing as a weather sheild. period.

Any place has a chance of getting hit by nature's fury.
1065. guygee
Picked up another 0.65" of rain between 7:00-8:30 this morning mostly in a brief squall, tapering off now.
Quoting RyanSperrey:
The real story with this storm is going to be what it does to the North-East USA. The CMC, which has been 90% accurate with this storm, is showing Andrea strengthening into a Cat 1 Extra-Tropical Storm around Long Island/Conneticut/Rode Island

(cant really call it a Hurricane since it will be more Nor'easterly in structure by that point, but it will have the same wind impacts as a Hurricane of the same strength, but a larger wind field...IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT LIKE THE CMC PREDICTS)



Like another Sandy? That won't happen.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is intensifying right now. Wow!!



Way to stick with your guns Scott, nice call. Not an easy one, but like you said climatology speaking for June this isn't the first time we have seen a storm over-perform riding up a front along the East Coast.

I don't think she can strengthen anymore however until she can close off that dry air, as long as that large dry slot is intraining into her south side it "should" keep her check, but she may have other ideas as well.

I hope people from Apalachicola down to Tampa are ready for a bit of surge of water. This storm is tracking right into an area that is geographical proned to enhanced storm surges. Is this coming in at low or high tide?
Quoting Civicane49:
Andrea is becoming more impressive with the convection wrapping around the center and featuring a good curved band to the southeast on both satellite and radar images.


Ton's of dry air filtering into it's eye is preventing it from strengthening to rapidly though.
WOW! What a morning here in Palm Beach county
Nothing new, but:

AL, 01, 2013060612, , BEST, 0, 278N, 849W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 70, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Like another Sandy? That won't happen.


Oh hell no, nothing like Sandy - completely different situation.
Half and hour has made a huge difference with Andrea; I retract my earlier statement about being in the dry slot in the Big Bend. She has intensified a bit over the last hour or so.
Quoting RyanSperrey:


Ton's of dry air filtering into it's eye is preventing it from strengthening to rapidly though.


True. But the structure of it looks good.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Half and hour has made a huge difference with Andrea; I retract my earlier statement about being in the dry slot in the Big Bend. She has intensified a bit over the last hour or so.


I give her 10-20% of reaching hurricane status just before landfall.
1076. will40
Quoting RyanSperrey:


Ton's of dry air filtering into it's eye is preventing it from strengthening to rapidly though.


she is leaving the dry air behind
This one
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I give her 10-20% of reaching hurricane status just before landfall.


Agree; but she has gone from low-grade TS to a high-grade TS this morning. I have to drive down closer to the coast for work this afternoon. Looking forward to seeing what conditioons are like down there later today.
1079. Mikla
Tornado reported about 10mi W of my house in Boca Raton, FL... out in the Everglades.
1081. RevInFL
Link

Here is a breakdown for everything officially issued for North Brevard. Funny how just as they issued a special weather statement for wind gusts, a pretty healthy gust came through. I didn't get a chance to get my anemometer on it.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Half and hour has made a huge difference with Andrea; I retract my earlier statement about being in the dry slot in the Big Bend. She has intensified a bit over the last hour or so.
Watch this make landfall on Cedar Key.
gnarly here in east central florida taking a good dumping not your average thunderstorm
Good morning All,

I'm just checking in and never in my wildest dreams would I have thought Andrea would have goten this strong. I was thinking yesterday that she might get to 50MPH but to get close to 70, nope.... All I can say is she is a "Fighter"



Taco :o)
coming about to the ne south of cross city now
I give her a 20%-40% chance of hurricane status.
1087. RevInFL
For some reason I cannot find how wide of a storm Andrea has become. Can someone post it for me? I am curious on how long we will feel the effects of her. TIA
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


East of the Models?


yeah been watching the radar and it appears Andrea is getting closer to Tampa while strengthening some.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Watch this make landfall on Cedar Key.


Within a reasonable spread, and looking at the loops, probably anywhere between St. Marks and Cedar Key later this evening.
I'll go with 10-20% chance to hit Hurricane status. She's still fighting a bit of dry air in her eye and is entering cooler water. Could be a bit rough.

BUT if she is able to close her eye off, she will drop a few points of pressure and her wind will follow depending on how close she gets to shore by time this happens.

Everything depends on what the Eye does at this point.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Watch this make landfall on Cedar Key.


That would be something as I called Cedar Key days ago. Hows the weather by you? Getting worse as It appears Andrea is getting closer to your area?
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Latest GFS (06Z) Total Accumulated Precipitation Amounts Out to 96 Hours.

We're going to get a pretty good dose of rain here in D.C.Should knock out that nasty pollen in the air for a while.
full hi res vis anim

watch for tropical tornado day with possible hurricane force gusts embedded



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
full hi res vis anim

watch for tropical tornado day with possible hurricane force gusts embedded





Watch that band wrap all the way around the center. If that happens then a Hurricane isn't out of the question.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We're going to get a pretty good dose of rain here in D.C.Should knock out that nasty pollen in the air for a while.

That will keep it in check for sure.
FL is the best place to be for weather fans! N Leewards are just TOO BORING

When something approach my area it almost always weakens or dissipate :(
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


yeah been watching the radar and it appears Andrea is getting closer to Tampa while strengthening some.



You were right about Andrea becoming a strong TS, so I trust you. I belive we will see the cone shift east in the next few runs as well.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We're going to get a pretty good dose of rain here in D.C.Should knock out that nasty pollen in the air for a while.
gonna rain even here wash 3 4 days off and on rain all in association of Andrea
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
primarily to the east of the center.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Watch that band wrap all the way around the center. If that happens then a Hurricane isn't out of the question.
gonna be close tracker real close can she do it maybe she is lagging with her approach
I do not see Andrea heading NNE. I see it going east.
Quoting CaribBoy:
FL is the best place to be for weather fans! N Leewards are just TOO BORING


Careful what you wish for. Where you are, such words could come back to haunt you! (lol) Ok, now I'm really leaving for work...
Agree on the eastward shift, new tracks should reflect this, especially with new HH data later today.
Quoting mikatnight:


Careful what you wish for. Where you are, such words could come back to haunt you! (lol) Ok, now I'm really leaving for work...


Good day!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna be close tracker real close can she do it maybe she is lagging with her approach


I agree! I give it a small chance of happening but it's a chance none the less.
Just as long as we don't go into a drought Keeper like 2012.Don't want a repeat of that.2013 is different.
her coc is right under her now just as its coming in if it can wrap up tight real tight might do it dry air shear and land interaction is about to kill this thing for the time being till off east conus coast
My Wife is in Dallas (road trip with the kid too)visiting her sister and was supposed to drive back to the Big Bend today....I called then off because of the storm and told them to come back on Sat when things calmed down.

Good call for Me too.....Another two nights by myself in the house with the Dog, Chicken Wings, and a few beers. Looking foward to it and the storm................ :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That would be something as I called Cedar Key days ago. Hows the weather by you? Getting worse as It appears Andrea is getting closer to your area?
The rain is still falling at a steady rate with occasional wind gusts.
1114. flcanes
Its moving ENE now i think
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just as long as we don't go into a drought Keeper like 2012.Don't want a repeat of that.2013 is different.
2013 has been 2013 we got a lot more of 2013 yet to come
Anyone else notice how well the "comma" of this storm in the last image of the latest radar loop fits so well into the coastline of Florida's big bend area. It's amazing how these storms have eroded the landscape over the eons.
1117. flcanes
And tornados are dropping everywhere :(
Keep me posted
Andrea is definitely moving ENE at the moment.

Quoting CaribBoy:
FL is the best place to be for weather fans! N Leewards are just TOO BORING

When something approach my area it almost always weakens or dissipate :(


Then what was Hurricane Earl then?
Quoting flcanes:
Its moving ENE now i think
I think she comes in just south of cross city but don't hold me too it
1122. flcanes
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think she comes in just south of cross city but don't hold me too it

I kind of agree
Me too
Quoting flcanes:
Its moving ENE now i think
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then what was Hurricane Earl then?


Good morning Teddy! You guys stay safe over there.
Is that feeder band in the Gulf going to make it across the state to affect the east coast?

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is definitely moving ENE at the moment.

The deeper reds are just offshore and probably contain the stronger winds, going to need to monitor that area.
1129. JDSmith
Looks to me as if Andrea is losing ground in regard to strengthening. We may see 5/10mph in additional strengthening, but that's it.

Convective diurnal maximum has passed and shear should be on the rise due to the approaching frontal boundary. Also, dry air... Holy cow, dry air... Expect convection to become very displaced from the COC. There will be no CDO on this one, folks. No 'cane today.




1130. flcanes
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is that feeder band in the Gulf going to make it across the state to affect the east coast?


Unless if the track shifts east, no
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Good morning Teddy! You guys stay safe over there.


Already had several tornadoes brush by overnight, conditions starting to deteriorate as the morning has gone on.
1132. VR46L
A closer look in IR . LSU Northern Gulf Imagery

Loop Embedded

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then what was Hurricane Earl then?
Apparently that was just a typical afternoon thunderstorm to him.
Yes
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is that feeder band in the Gulf going to make it across the state to affect the east coast?

you can see a partial exposed coc in the break of the clouds lining up with a cluster of new storms in the sw semi circle of the coc trying to form the cloud deck appears moving north all the while her low level swirl is moving ene

what size of storm surge is anticipated in tampa bay? tides could make a difference.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think she comes in just south of cross city but don't hold me too it

That's where I live.
Far more visually impressive than Debby was. Reminds me somewhat in structure of Hurricane Earl in 1998.


Erica Rakow
Pouring now at @JAXairport.
1140. KORBIN
This is a strengthening storm- By the 11AM Advsiory we could see a 70+ mph storm. Please don't let your guard down.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warmer 77 degrees this morning and under a dangerous thunderstorm warning. I can hear it rumbling as it comes. It's only supposed to warm up about seven or eight degrees by this afternoon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Bananas Foster French toast, scrambled eggs, sausage patties and links, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
Will check back with you all later this afternoon after I get back from the coastal area.

Only hoping that I don't lose power at the house tonight during the first Heat-Spur's game....
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah all this talk about the Tampa Sheild well it looks as if Andrea has destroyed it.


Tampa gets hit by tropical storms such as Andrea all the time. The "Tampa Shield" reference a direct hit from a major hurricane. It has been over 90 years since Tampa has been hit directly. I have lived here through storms all the way back to the '60's and have only experienced minimal hurricane force winds. Someone posted that Agnes gave us quite a punch. Not true. She passed a couple of hundred miles to our west. We got rain and tropical storm force winds much like Tampa will see today.

Having said that, Tampa will get hit one day. Maybe this year or maybe in 100 years but it will happen.
Andrea is taking a pretty big jog east currently.
Morning all
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Will check back with you all later this afternoon after I get back from the coastal area.

Only hoping that I don't lose power at the house tonight during the first Heat-Piston's game....



Heat V Spurs
Quoting saltwaterconch:
Anyone else notice how well the "comma" of this storm in the last image of the latest radar loop fits so well into the coastline of Florida's big bend area. It's amazing how these storms have eroded the landscape over the centuries.


Now you're good to go...


Eric Burris
Here's a breakdown of the treats to Central Florida from Tropical Storm Andrea. Flooding still the highest risk
Damage photo in Palm Beach County this morning. TS #Andrea Photo Credit: Belynda Warren

Good Morning guys, I see that Andrea peaked to 60 mph,as i predicted yesterday....Stay safe folks of west florida!!!!
Quoting robintampabay:



Heat V Spurs


Thanks. Corrected. All I care about is the Heat.... :)
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all
Good morning StormJunkie
@NHC_Surge
#stormsurge flooding of up to 5 ft above ground, or inundation, is possible in Florida Big Bend area with next high tide this afternoon
Quoting Civicane49:
Quoting Civicane49:


Convection almost wrapped.
1161. LargoFl
wow monsoon rain here by me and the gusts are getting stronger..
Quoting LargoFl:
wow monsoon rain here by me and the gusts are getting stronger..


LARGO! YOURE BACK!
Getting a lot of these uprooted trees in Myakka City.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Andrea is wrapping up nicely, could become stronger before landfall. Be prepared. Stay on guard.
1166. LargoFl
gee im soooo glad when i bought this house i picked the high ground,there's going to be alot of flooding in those low lying area's for sure
Looks like Andrea wants to be the first storm and hurricane of 2013.
Convection wrapping around the center:

Up to 2.73 inches now!
1171. LargoFl
Quoting FunnelVortex:


LARGO! YOURE BACK!
Hiya yeah this event could'nt be missed in here lol..nice to see the blog still going strong.
When will the HH be up there today?.

Looks like she is grabbing air from the Central Atlantic!
One should always prepare for a storm if it was a category higher.
1175. dearmas
Got to leave here at 930 for Jury Duty ugh...I wish they would just call us out!!! I cant say anything about the case either..I'm in Pasco county (Wesley Chapel)
It's a shame really that we don't have a recon in this right now. If it's any meaning to Andrea the TAFB/SAB finally have figured out Andrea's a tropical storm. Satellite is going to be useless in determining strength today.
1177. yoboi
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all



Howdy!
1178. LargoFl
I wonder if..my area will top that predicted 4 inches of rain..the way its coming down so hard maybe we will.
I'm wondering if Tampa is going to be done with rain for now after this current feeder band comes by. I guess it all depends on how that newly formed eyewall generates convection and how close it gets to us. If it sticks to its forecast track than we may be stuck in the dry slot for the rest of the day.... What do you other tampans think?
fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!
Quoting Chicklit:
fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!


Have a Good Day :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting washingtonian115:
When will the HH be up there today?.


This afternoon by 1645 UTC.
Morning all! I see things have changed 'a bit' since last night ;) Hope everyone in Florida is staying safe! Keeping an eye on the track to see how it will affect us in the Charleston metro area tonight/tomorrow...


Significant damage from earlier possible tornado in the Loxahatchee area of Palm Beach Co., FL via @WPTV
When is Recon going in?
Someone (think it was GTCoolie) mentioned Cedar Key as a landfall spot. That looks like a good estimate right now.

Not much on predicting and forecasting like I was before, more of just a lurk and learn type now. Just wanted to say I appreciate the community here, best tropical info bar none and I've learned a lot since joining.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Significant damage from earlier possible tornado in the Loxahatchee area of Palm Beach Co., FL via @WPTV


Looks like EF-1 damage.
Probably going to be one of our best radar views today.
Debby this is not
1190. MahFL
Eye eye.....

Quoting FIUStormChaser:
When is Recon going in?
Read back to comment 1182 pleaseeeeee
Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.

Quoting Stoopid1:
Someone (think it was GTCoolie) mentioned Cedar Key as a landfall spot. That looks like a good estimate right now.

Not much on predicting and forecasting like I was before, more of just a lurk and learn type now. Just wanted to say I appreciate the community here, best tropical info bar none and I've learned a lot since joining.


I too find my self "lurking" more since I joined.
But I will say this, if youi want up to the min information this is the place to be....

Taco :o)
There's no way this isn't a Hurricane right now. Everything i see indicates that it is but we dont have a recon in there to officially classify it. Which annoys me greatly.
Thank you Civicane.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.



When that comes ashore, the skies will be bright.
will it be a Hurricane?
Quoting belizeit:
Read back to comment 1182 pleaseeeeee


Yeah that's what I did, my bad.

I think Andrea has an Eye..
1200. LargoFl
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
Just because it has an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?
Quoting Chicklit:
fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!


Hey Chicklit, what a way of start the 2013 hurricane season!!!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
will it be a Hurricane?


Already is by every indication, we just dont have a recon flight in there to give an official measurement.
Not quEYEte an eye yet, still wrapping. It looks like it's getting there though.



Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90*) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107*)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and falling


This will be the Buoy to watch, just NE of Andrea.

Link
Quoting MahFL:
Eye eye.....



Maybe the beginnings of one in the southern part of that opening but the giant hole is not an eye
Looks like she wants to make one more run at getting stronger if she keeps moving east northeast and getting that center under the convection.

I have been living in the Charleston area for the past 10 months or so, i have never had the experience of a tropical storm or hurricane. I have not even seen a tornado in my lifetime. Perhaps I can see a little action... just a little anyway.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm wondering if Tampa is going to be done with rain for now after this current feeder band comes by. I guess it all depends on how that newly formed eyewall generates convection and how close it gets to us. If it sticks to its forecast track than we may be stuck in the dry slot for the rest of the day.... What do you other tampans think?

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


When that comes ashore, the skies will be bright.


I'm assuming there is Tropical Storm force winds In that line aswell
1211. LargoFl
oh man when that band comes ashore might turn bad here..hope no tornado's
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.


That is unusual in a tropical system .hmm
Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes they can, like right now it has a very impressive signature on radar and high wave heights indicative of hurricane levels of strength, dont think they will classify it without a Recon though, which is understandable but annoying.
Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes but the ADT numbers are like, really low so I doubt that would happen

And plus, there will be a recon in before landfall
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just because an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.


Baroclinity effect is taking her!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just because an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.


Beryl from last year was an example:

The HH is running out of time.She should be making landfall in a few hours..
1218. MahFL
Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes the Dvorak technique can be used using satellite pictures. In Andrea's case the center is within range of land based radar, so velocities can be measured.
Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?
Yes we have had category 5 hurricanes without any HH in them.
1220. LargoFl
Quoting DudeTheMath:

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
Quoting DudeTheMath:

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
we must remember the rain bands stretch all the way down to the yucatan in mexico..an all day rain event for us,maybe off and on till the storm comes ashore.


Several homes sustained minor damage at #SunCityCenter after tornado. @TB_Times
1222. MahFL
Quoting weatherh98:


Maybe the beginnings of one in the southern part of that opening but the giant hole is not an eye


I never said it was a hurricane eye. All I said was eye eye.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Damage in the Acreage...also from WPTV.





Thanks guys for the clarification.
1226. gator23
Quoting Civicane49:


Beryl from last year was an example:



Dont forget Tropical Storm Fay who developed an eye OVER LAND!
Andrea the Shrimp-like Tropical Storm.

I would love to be sitting on St. Joe's Penisula state park in a condo........with a batch of fresh Oysters from Papa Joe's ready to crack open....watching the waves............
Quoting sporteguy03:

That is unusual in a tropical system .hmm

When strengthening TC's generate lots of lightning...
Tornado Warning for Pinellas County, Largo included in the warning. Cell currently over Gulfport and St. Pete Beach.
1231. Speeky
T.S. Andrea is the Atlantic's 1500th tropical storm since record keeping began in 1851
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Andrea the Shrimp-like Tropical Storm.




And it's going to attract all the fishies this year into the coast!

It makes sense
Quoting lostinohio:
I would love to be sitting on St. Joe's Penisula state park in a condo........with a batch of fresh Oysters from Papa Joe's ready to crack open....watching the waves............


Went there on vaca once, it was great... But I can't think if anything better than that^^^^