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Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

looking at all the computer model runs the trend has been a bit further north i believe we will have landfall somewhere between tampico mexico and corpus cristi texas.
1002. JRRP
144hrs
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI






If you're in Key West right now, yes that is one of Alex's outer bands.
whats that down in the SW Caribbean
Quoting Levi32:
a href="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062712-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressur e&ho ur=Animation:<12z GFDL full run....major northward motion early in the run with a massive left hooking turn at the end to keep it at the TX/MX border at landfall.
Indeed. Probably shows the ridge setting in real quickly.
Those models keep initializing Darby as a "nothing" long enough, and they'll eventually start to get accurate numbers...once Darby actually becomes a "nothing" again, that is...
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats that down in the SW Caribbean
Flare up of convection caused by the monsoon trough. In other words, it isn't anything to worry about and will likely die down as nighttime approaches.
1004:

That is convection from the EPAC and the ITCZ which is trapped in limbo in Alex' feeder band.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


If you're in Key West right now, yes that is one of Alex's outer bands.
what rain bands there is no rain on the long range or short range doppler radar only some rain over the everglades ?????
1010. jpsb
Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave floater actually shows a system in pretty bad shape to be honest.
I only have a couple of working links (WTF) but yeah, Alex is not looking very strong on my last two functioning links.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CMC 12z 84 hours. With a track like that, Alex could easily become a major hurricane.



That's not as nearly as strong or scary as the 00z run, which showed two retrograde loops and more time for rapid intensification; a scenario like that could really throw off the NHC forecasters.
1012. Patrap



Quoting louisianaboy444:


Look up Lawerence Menard

Oh, I believe ya. A misunderstanding among others...
Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave floater actually shows a system in pretty bad shape to be honest.
??? Who uses shortwave during the daytime?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z HWRF suggests a Corpus Christi landfall.

HWRF 12z 108 hours

have you run the lego block model yet
1017. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was here until 2AM, so you probably didn't say anything, lol.


If you had paid attention to Storm and Levi, earlier last night it was mentioned. Go back and scroll late afternon and early evening. We mentioned it a couple of times. We have to keep you on your toes, Miami!!!!! LOL

1018. Levi32
GFS wind shear 102 hours....amazing upper anticyclone over Alex in the NW gulf. Great outflow jets all around.

oh......... ok
guys remember there is no 2PM advisory for those who are waiting for it all watches and warnings were dropped earlier
Afternoon everyone! Alex dipping his toes in the BOC and testing the water?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i can zoom it in closer


The southern COC is drifting west toward the Laguna, but is a new COC developing to its north?
Are conditions favorable for Alex to strengthen once he makes it over the Gulf? Will Alex encounter any wind shear?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That's not as nearly as strong or scary as the 00z run, which showed two retrograde loops and more time for rapid intensification; a scenario like that could really throw off the NHC forecasters.
Well you really have to discount the intensity it shows but rather the track. If Alex were to do a track like that it can easily become a major hurricane because of the favorable conditions. And the fact that it would be much more time over water instead of making landfall by Texas.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
have you run the lego block model yet
Huh? Lol.
1027. Patrap

1028. Patrap
Quoting errantlythought:
Atmo, Levi, et al.

Rainbow floater

Pay attention to the NE quadrant at 13:45 and 14:15. The convection is waining, but appears to be moving northerly. Likely just a wobble combined with rotation of convection, but I figured I'd put it out for your inspections.

I don't think there is much of significance to see there...just a land-bound former TS doing it's thing.
2 frames of convection can play all sorts of tricks on the eyes...
1030. Grothar
Quoting StormW:
979. Grothar 1:31 PM EDT on June 27, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Obvious WNW motion there.



Told you last night, remember? No one ever listens. ah hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This became apparent with the digging of that trof last night.


You called it night! Interesting to see what happens. I wish I knew more how these things work.
Quoting Grothar:


If you had paid attention to Storm and Levi, earlier last night it was mentioned. Go back and scroll late afternon and early evening. We mentioned it a couple of times. We have to keep you on your toes, Miami!!!!! LOL

LMAO! Well that WNW motion became apparent since last night.
1032. Patrap
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


C or D.
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East



C and D
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


c
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I say this is a Brownsville, TX to Port Aurthur, TX event. Port Aurthur, TX is a city right on the TX/LA border.
Are you serious? Do you really think this will affect Louisiana? I've been watching it, but havent been worried. Should I worry?
Quoting Patrap:


Nice circulation for being over land so long.
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFDL looks near TX/MX border.



Yup. Near Brownsville, like I think it will go. We will see what the 12Z Euro says! (Did the 12Z UKMET go north or south?)
1041. tkeith
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East
Belize...
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


C or D.
also C or D
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


f. Belize (it already made landfall there)
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


C
1046. CCkid00
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


f. Anywhere
Quoting swlagirl:
Are you serious? Do you really think this will affect Louisiana? I've been watching it, but havent been worried. Should I worry?


Well, If Alex does make landfall near Port Aurthur, you'll get lots of strong winds and heavy rain. I wouldn't worry...yet. Lets just watch and see what happens...
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats that down in the SW Caribbean


A flare-up of Alex's southern convective spiral bands.
Quoting StormW:


Where the center comes across.
Good answer! I think making predictions is pretty iffy right now lol
C- (Port O'Connor)
Alex now re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...
Quoting CCkid00:
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?


Those are from the seabreeze front and the stuff offshore is from Alex
1055. Levi32
Quoting neonlazer:
Good answer! I think making predictions is pretty iffy right now lol


Agree.
A few things I don't know

1.When will Alex reach the BoC?

2.Will Alex start to reintensify as soon as it gets over water?

3.how long will Alex stay over water after it gets into the GoM/BoC?

Any awnsers are appreciated!
"E"
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex now re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...


Uh-Oh.
looks like it will re emerge within an hour
1060. RJT185
Quoting miamiamiga:


If it does refresh the page the first time, then you have to go back and find the post you want to quote and hit quote again. It has always worked for me the second try, if not the first...


It's been doing that for me sporadically. It delays the posting and when the blog moves so fast a lot of the people have moved on. lol
My bad. There is no 2PM advisory, lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok. I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory.


there is NO 2pm advisory
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok. I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory.


....
I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory
Quoting MrstormX:


Thats what you think
I know I know, I fixed it already. Lol.
1066. Torgen
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory


That's why he will be the only one to post it! :D
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.




the next one is 4pm
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory


Correct next adv is at 4pm
This is one of the coolest and best looking satellites I have seen, When sped up, i can see a NW change in the last few frames. GOM Loop!
1070. xcool
5pm
Quoting MrstormX:


Thats what you think


What the point of posting it..Everyone here knows where to retrieve it.
1072. s1ecr
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


e
1073. jpsb
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
I am going to wait until monday PM to hit the panic button.
Quoting Torgen:


That's why he will be the only one to post it! :D


I was thinking that too lol
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I was thinking that too lol
LOL!!
Quoting StormW:


Soon

Definitely

Too long.


scary thoughts StormW, and that forecasted anti-cylcone gives Alex near primo conditions to intensify basically as much as it wants
nice looking wave in the CATL 1300miles
Quoting neonlazer:
This is one of the coolest and best looking satellites I have seen, When sped up, i can see a NW change in the last few frames. GOM Loop!


Awesome!
Good afternoon Wunderblog-

I was wondering... are the storms rolling off Africa being subject to high sheer and that's why they are dissipating ? If so, perhaps the next wave (and what seems to be a powerful low) that is about to to exit the african continent will dissipate upon entering the atlantic. Anyone on this thing have any knowledge regarding whether the eastern and central atlantic is conducive for tropical development for the next week?
Western edge of the circulation almost over water now, interesting 6hours ahead!
Quoting CCkid00:
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?

Kinda, yeah. Hearing the rumbles, atm.

Almost lost this among all of the "-"s I handed out for voting on nothing, as if Alex is being elected or our vote counts for anything. Post waste.
Quoting StormW:


Soon

Definitely

Too long.


How long is"Too Long"?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WeathermanAG/comment.html?entrynum=1
Check out my new blog on Alex!
...TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

HPC RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND ALL OTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM ALEX DURING THE SHORT RANGE
FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS IS A SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH OUTLIER... THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE MORE SRN OUTLIERS AND THE 12Z NAM/09Z
SREF MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER
WITH ALEX.

CONCERNING THE NRN EXTENT OF ALEX... A VORT LOBE/INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS WILL SWEEP TO THE NORTH AND WEST APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/WEST
GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF
...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO CONTAIN NO FEEDBACK AND MIGHT BE
BETTER TO USE. FOR MORE ON THE QPF ASPECT FROM THIS END... PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFPFD LATER THIS AFTN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER


Quoting StormW:


GFS is better than CMC for shear.


Agreed, StormW! There is no way on earth that wind shear values will be that highly unfavorable all throughout the basin, several days from now. Throw that innacurate wind shear forecast by the CMC, away, because it's clearly out to lunch. The GFS tends to do a MUCH better job in that respect. Better luck next time, JPPR1 and JPPR2, lol, :).
1088. txjac
Wow, I like that link ...thanks!
1089. beell
Anybody watching that spurious mid-upper shear axis along the gulf coast? Weakening the ridge perhaps?

Photobucket
Link
Quoting 92Andrew:
Good afternoon Wunderblog-

I was wondering... are the storms rolling off Africa being subject to high sheer and that's why they are dissipating ? If so, perhaps the next wave (and what seems to be a powerful low) that is about to to exit the african continent will dissipate upon entering the atlantic. Anyone on this thing have any knowledge regarding whether the eastern and central atlantic is conducive for tropical development for the next week?


They aren't dying, they just lose convection, because they cant take the transition from hot land to cooler sea.
Quoting beell:
Anybody watching that spurious mid-upper shear axis along the gulf coast? Weakening the ridge perhaps?

Photobucket
Link
No, but now that you pointed it out, yes.
Quoting MrstormX:


f. Anywhere


Somewhere between Texas and Lousianna.
1093. Patrap
Hi all... Alex is about to head back out over water I see. As always, there is no good place for him to make a second landfall.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't think there is much of significance to see there...just a land-bound former TS doing it's thing.
2 frames of convection can play all sorts of tricks on the eyes...


Should certainly hope that's all it is. Didnt mean to imply it's necessarily a more northerly influence, but that it might bear watching in further frames.

Also, that seabreeze front isnt a normal seabreeze. For one, it's too early in the afternoon, and I can feel the damn thing. (Though according to the WUgauge the pressure has risen over the past few min)
Quoting MrstormX:
...TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

HPC RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND ALL OTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM ALEX DURING THE SHORT RANGE
FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS IS A SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH OUTLIER... THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE MORE SRN OUTLIERS AND THE 12Z NAM/09Z
SREF MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER
WITH ALEX.

CONCERNING THE NRN EXTENT OF ALEX... A VORT LOBE/INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS WILL SWEEP TO THE NORTH AND WEST APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/WEST
GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF
...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO CONTAIN NO FEEDBACK AND MIGHT BE
BETTER TO USE. FOR MORE ON THE QPF ASPECT FROM THIS END... PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFPFD LATER THIS AFTN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER




So, NHC, all of the other models that are further north have "convective issues" as well? Although, the GFS was extremely erratic with the Low Pressure's path.
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...
Here we go...!

1100. txjac
I'm from Texas ..in Houston
My track I created last night.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
Quoting Hurricanes101:
NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode
1105. scott39
Hello, Could somebody post the number chart that is used for direction and where Alex is on that?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode


Which is likely to happen.
1108. Patrap




NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode
Indeed.
1110. Torgen
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)
nice looking wave in the catl 1200 miles ese of the winward islands
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.


It would be quite something... Although the last Alex to occur (2004) was major as well.
Quoting Torgen:
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)
LOL!!!
Quoting Torgen:
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)



there is no 2pm update
im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol
Quoting MrstormX:


It would be quite something... Although the last Alex to occur (2004) was major as well.
That was in July/August. This one is in June.
Quoting Tazmanian:



there is no 2pm update


he knows, he is making fun of MH09 because of what he said earlier lol
Miami Hurricane.....you posted the CMC a little while ago. Is that a reliable model? That track takes it WAY more north than the other models.....And like you said...A whole lotta time in the GULF!!
Not digging the model adjustmenst. GFS had huge change as well did the ensembles. Other models have that little notch in them giving a hint that a more northly track could actually accur. Still holding on that this thing goes into Mexico so it cant turn into a major hurricane or even a legit hurricane. Whew not liking that shift this late in the game.
I'm from Texas, but I'm not calling for a landfall anywhere specific. I don't know more than anyone else where this thing is gonna go. :)
Part of the Circulation is now over the Laguna de Terminos.
am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??
1123. ATL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!!!

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)
Quoting watchingnva:
im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol


doesn't matter, fact remains landfall in Texas is still definitely a possibility
Quoting Hurricanes101:


he knows, he is making fun of MH09 because of what he said earlier lol




oh.....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.


Even 2005 didn't have that! :o

This season is reminding me of 2004, when Alex was a category three hurricane. The first storm didn't form until July 31st though.
Quoting watchingnva:
im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol


I
Quoting ATL:

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)



now that was not nic
storm

cchs was a great bloger anything happen to this person ?
Alex is about to receive another convection injection.

I also suspect that much like 2 days ago, Alex will get a lot of help from the afternoon POPS under the land-locked portions of it's inflow, which could start early under the circumstances.
Quoting NOSinger:
Miami Hurricane.....you posted the CMC a little while ago. Is that a reliable model? That track takes it WAY more north than the other models.....And like you said...A whole lotta time in the GULF!!
Ehhh... I don't know if it is "reliable" model but is definitely worth paying attention to. I do have to say this though, IF the ECMWF shows the same thing we have to watch Alex VERY closely.
1132. CCkid00
sorry for all the questions....just learning.....what are the ensemble models? do they belong basically to the GFS? i'm assuming so since the GFS runs right up the middle of them. also, what kind of accuracy does the NHC have with landfall forecasts, this far out? they basically missed it with Katrina....right up to near landfall. we all kept watching the TV and they kept waiting for the turn (the one that didn't happen until under La....that they expected to happen under the Florida panhandle).
Afternon, I see the GFDL and HWRF shifted north (again).. Before I make a new forecast map, I will wait for the EURO :)
Hi smmcdavid!! Been a long time!

Cane.. I don't like your track... sorry ;)
Quoting ATL:

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)
LMAO!
Quoting watchingnva:
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...


I live in Port Isabel, just across the causeway from South Padre Island.
1139. Patrap
G-4 to Fly


000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
Quoting Tazmanian:
am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??


Maybe momentarily, but I dont think the TCHP of the gulf could support a major for very long. Maybe a 3, but that'd be the extreme upper end, I think.
G IV plane goes out tomorrow I think, that information will be very helpful
Quoting StormW:


Good afternoon.
hey storm looks like its almost time for alex to have his grand entrance for the party
I'm from Klein TX (~20 mi NNW of Houston) and watching this system with great care and curiosity.
1104:

Indeed.

Has total re-curve potential, possibly into central Florida as a very large, very major.
Galleria, Houston here
Quoting errantlythought:
Also, that seabreeze front isnt a normal seabreeze. For one, it's too early in the afternoon, and I can feel the damn thing. (Though according to the WUgauge the pressure has risen over the past few min)

All over that, I see. Well done.
Quoting watchingnva:
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...


Me....Beaumont
1149. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??


If Alex happens to take the GFS/CMC track east of Corpus Christi, then it could potentially rival Audrey for the strongest June storm ever, though it would be close because the end of the month would be near landfall time. That much time over water with a northern track like that, coupled with slow movement due to weaker steering currents, could allow this one to blow.
Quoting Tazmanian:



now that was not nic
Don't worry about it. It's pretty funny.
the models will love the jets data.....
This storm should be tooken seriously,a hurricane in june is rare enough...a Major hurricane in june,well.

I wasn't even alive then.
Quoting StormW:


Recommendation, don't make a new forecast map yet.


Hi Storm,

What are your thoughts today on Alex? Should us on the northern TX coast be on the lookout?
Quoting StormW:


Recommendation, don't make a new forecast map yet.


Agreed don't even bother with it until operationally we see what is going on over water.
Quoting Levi32:


If Alex happens to take the GFS/CMC track east of Corpus Christi, then it could potentially rival Audrey for the strongest June storm ever, though it would be close because the end of the month would be near landfall time.
If the ECMWF jumps on board...
Going to update my site and post my latest forecast track along with my blog. Be back in a few.
1157. Patrap
The G-4 Goes Wheels up 00Z Monday Evening EDT
Quoting StormW:


Good afternoon.

Hey how is it going...I am def not a fan of the models making such a major shift so close to landfall. We are already getting TS here in southern MS...awesome buildups all around my house. I do need a quick rain shower for the fertilzer that was put down yesterday haha.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't worry about it. It's pretty funny.




oh ok then
1160. USSINS
South/Southeast winds now off the beach with thunderpoppers in the sound from the outflow off of Alex. Wow! Some, what, 700-800 miles away?
Quoting Levi32:


If Alex happens to take the GFS/CMC track east of Corpus Christi, then it could potentially rival Audrey for the strongest June storm ever, though it would be close because the end of the month would be near landfall time.


OMG bad Levi! Bad! lol....Wouldnt that be something though..to not only surpass it but make landfall in the same place
1162. txjac
Quoting watchingnva:
im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol


From Texas here as well ..like others, not going to call where it will be ...but at my place we are ready!
chances Alex goes anywhere east of TX/LA border are very slim at this time
Quoting Levi32:


If Alex happens to take the GFS/CMC track east of Corpus Christi, then it could potentially rival Audrey for the strongest June storm ever, though it would be close because the end of the month would be near landfall time. That much time over water with a northern track like that, coupled with slow movement due to weaker steering currents, could allow this one to blow.



thats bad news
4-5 Days in the Gulf.....

One word that describes the above words....


YIKES!!!!!!
UKMET Office a little further north than before.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 89.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2010 18.4N 89.8W WEAK
00UTC 28.06.2010 19.5N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2010 20.6N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2010 20.9N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2010 21.9N 93.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.06.2010 22.9N 95.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 22.9N 97.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2010 23.4N 98.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.07.2010 23.7N 97.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.07.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Storm,

What are your thoughts today on Alex? Should us on the northern TX coast be on the lookout?


You should know by now..Everyone should be on the "lookout" including me and I live over in the Tampa area in Florida. This storm is capable of doing anything. As is the case with any tropical system.
I am from South Central Texas and last year we had Tropical Storms and Hurricanes get within 100 miles of us and we got very little rain out of any of the systems, stayed on dry side of them.
1169. Torgen
All kidding aside, I wonder if all the hurricanes and storms over the Yucatan every year is why the Mayan civilization collapsed? I remember reading somewhere that they engaged in massive deforestation to support their large cities, and can only imagine the erosion, mudslides etc every single year.

Can you imagine trying to deal with recovering from that without wheels, carts, draft animals, or communications other than sending men running from town to town?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the ECMWF jumps on board...

12z ECMWF not on board.
1171. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the ECMWF jumps on board...


If the ECMWF shifts north and takes it into Texas then that would be very bad news for everyone. One of these run cycles the models will eventually have to agree. They can't stay this far split forever. As landfall time approaches they will gradually come into better agreement, but which side will it be...
1173. xcool
i have new ECMw
Quoting Seflhurricane:
what rain bands there is no rain on the long range or short range doppler radar only some rain over the everglades ?????


The outer bands are producing little rain, but storms in Florida are flaring up just ahead of it.



Quoting Seflhurricane:
guys remember there is no 2PM advisory for those who are waiting for it all watches and warnings were dropped earlier


Why has a TS warning not ben issued for Tabasco?!

Quoting MrstormX:


Nice circulation for being over land so long.


Reminds of me Marco 2008.
Quoting txag91met:

12z ECMWF not on board.


12Z ECMWF is not out yet
this blog is moveing lol
1177. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
i have new ECMw


What site? You keep saying you have them much earlier than they come out on the sites we use.
Quoting Levi32:


If the ECMWF shifts north and takes it into Texas then that would be very bad news for everyone. One of these run cycles the models will eventually have to agree. They can't stay this far split forever. As landfall time approaches they will gradually come into better agreement, but which side will it be...
Indeed.
euro 48 hours

Quoting xcool:
i have new ECMw
Link please?
polo
Quoting txag91met:

12z ECMWF not on board.


The 12Z ECMWF hasn't even come out yet!
1183. xcool
look
1184. nash28
Afternoon all. Been away from the tropics for the last two days. Work and today went to see Knight and Day. I got some serious catching up to do.
This storm is so wide we can expect to see a lot of rain across the whole Gulf coast.
Quoting xcool:
Levi32




Link?
South Texas here. We are having disaster preparedness meetings. Maybe a Dolly repeat of 2008.
Quoting StormW:


Recommendation, don't make a new forecast map yet.


I kind of want to see what the latest factors are, I might add intensity on this next one, the last one I left it out because I was unsure. Not trying to put doomsday on people, but anticyclones can make systems powerful. I need to see the next model runs before I make a second call. Might just keep the track on TX/MX for now, unless the BAMM runs start shifting north. BTW, I appreciate your input and analysis :)
Quoting xcool:
Levi32






Is this further north than before? *Suspense kills* :P
1190. tkeith
Quoting Tazmanian:
polo
LOL...Amy would be proud :)
1191. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

are storm is all most back overe water and too me its moveing vary slow or it has stalled
I'll be back later.
Quoting Tazmanian:
this blog is moveing lol


Yes but West or Northwest?
Storm, do you buy at all the CMC model run??
1167:

I agree.

People put too much focus on the "official" cone of uncertainty thing, IMO.

Everyone should always remember that forecasting is a best educated guess based on our present understanding of physics, combined with experience and hunches, but there is still a lot of room for error, and storms often do the exact opposite of forecast.

Betsy
Gordon
Katrina

Are all infamous for doing completely unexpected turns off the coast of Florida, as example.
1197. Patrap
Quoting Snowlover123:


The 12Z ECMWF hasn't even come out yet!
I already have it...Tampico, MX, similar to the 12z UKMET.
1199. xcool
ECMWF more N
Quoting txag91met:
I already have it.
Nevermind.
1201. 7544
north east lol
1202. xcool
txag91met ME TO
1203. scott39
I remember the good old days when i was a kid, way before the internet, and i would get my Hurricane tracking chart and listen to the met with the latest coordinates. I would use the same one for a couple of years and it would be cool to look at. I miss the good ole days.LOL
1204. xcool
7544 HUH
Quoting Torgen:
All kidding aside, I wonder if all the hurricanes and storms over the Yucatan every year is why the Mayan civilization collapsed? I remember reading somewhere that they engaged in massive deforestation to support their large cities, and can only imagine the erosion, mudslides etc every single year.

Can you imagine trying to deal with recovering from that without wheels, carts, draft animals, or communications other than sending men running from town to town?



You're on to something. Try reading "Floods, Famines, And Emperors: El Nino And The Fate Of Civilizations" by archaeologist Brian Fagan if you're interested in weather impacts to the Maya and other pre-conquest peoples.
This is just my personal opinion...take that for what its worth...lmao



alex should be sliding into the gulf over the next 2-3 hours...

i do see a more northwesterly turn tomorrow evening, but it wont go nnw, and the furthest north im seeing right now isn't much further than Brownsville, TX....

strength wise....cat1/low end cat 2...

will have to see how things look tonight...
Quoting xcool:
ECMWF more N
Can you post it?
Just a quick thanks to all image posters. Much appreciated. I have an old computer and UGH! still on dial-up and it takes me a LONG TIME to retrieve images. So thanks! BTL...
1209. xcool
PAGE 24
1210. ATL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you post it?


Much of the content is subscription based and comes out earlier...long and short of it is that the ECMWF is holding steady.
While it may be possible (maybe probable) in the last couple frames that Alex is finally moving more NW, he has been going a bit South of NHC points. Gonna have to make that turn before almost any of the models are accurate.
Quoting xcool:
PAGE 24
I mean after 48 hours.
Quoting 7544:
north east lol


What the...?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here we go...!



There's almost a clear patch surrounding all of Alex except its southwestern quadrant, hmm...
Hey txalways... sorry, trying to keep up with the blog and a 3 year old is not easy! How are ya?
Quoting RecordSeason:
1167:

I agree.

People put too much focus on the "official" cone of uncertainty thing, IMO.

Everyone should always remember that forecasting is a best educated guess based on our present understanding of physics, combined with experience and hunches, but there is still a lot of room for error, and storms often do the exact opposite of forecast.

Betsy
Gordon
Katrina

Are all infamous for doing completely unexpected turns off the coast of Florida, as example.
Actually the UKMET/ECMWF did quite well with Katrina...GFS performed horribly.
I noticed that the 00Z ECMWF ensembles have started to trend slightly further north than the latest ECMWF and what it was previously showing.



I said last night that I did not anticipate a move in the ECMWF's forecast, but now that it's ensemble members are trending slightly north, I would not be surprised to see the operational ECMWF start to shift northwards as well, especially if the trend continues. Everyone has been praising the ECMWF for it's track forecast of Alex, but the ensemble nailed that track down when the operational was showing a 950 mb hurricane rolling into Mobie Bay. It's too early to tell, but if the 12Z ECMWF comes in a little more north than previously and the ensembles continue to trend north of that, something will definitely be up.
1218. scott39
Quoting weatherwonderer:
While it may be possible (maybe probable) in the last couple frames that Alex is finally moving more NW, he has been going a bit South of NHC points. Gonna have to make that turn before almost any of the models are accurate.
I see slightly N of the NHC points.
Alex about to re-emerge, if it hasn't already.

Quoting stoormfury:
nice looking wave in the catl 1200 miles ese of the winward islands
It looks like it MIGHT have a little of a mid-level spin.
Jeeze, Pat you still have that warning map that you posted a couple of days ago? I think it might be appropriate with all of this madness in here. LOL
1222. xcool



MAKE YOU MIND UP euro
No 2pm advisory?
I think alex will surprise all of us and make a miss/al landfall the track will contine going right it all ways does
Quoting scott39:
I remember the good old days when i was a kid, way before the internet, and i would get my Hurricane tracking chart and listen to the met with the latest coordinates. I would use the same one for a couple of years and it would be cool to look at. I miss the good ole days.LOL
Yes indeed! While growing up in my home, hurricane Prep for an impeding storm was all that plus an ice chest for sandwiches, a transitter radio and a box of donuts.
Quoting ElConando:
No 2pm advisory?


not watches or warnings are issued, so nope
Quoting ElConando:
No 2pm advisory?
No...
Quoting xcool:



MAKE YOU MIND UP euro


Looks just like the previous run. Maybe stronger.
Quoting watchingnva:
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...


Houston
1230. Liza24
Quoting waverunner:
South Texas here. We are having disaster preparedness meetings. Maybe a Dolly repeat of 2008.
Oh geez hope not.. but im thinking it won't head for us..we just have to wait and see though
hello all. just here watching the ever unpredictable ALEX.. so last night Corpus Christi was out of the "the cone of error". I woke up today and CC is once again in it.. can someone explain what COULD steer this storm back north??
It's starting to re-emerge.

If it can get enough of it's core offshore and limp into DMAX it should explode by this time tomorrow.
Quoting scott39:
I see slightly N of the NHC points.


That may be true esp. with the last couple of frames, before that I thought slightly S. It really does look like it may be making its move NW..will be able to tell better in an hour if that holds up...
omg 12z dynamic models have significantly shifted

"THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF...

Convective feedback creates anomalous vertical motion in the area of the gridpoint storms which in turn creates anomalously low surface pressure in the model in the same area. So if convective feedback is appearing over the gulf then the pressure pattern will be incorrectly altered and not reliable.
YAY AND OH NO BAD NEWS
Later all. I'll check back in when there actually is an advisory to post, LOL!
The game is afoot, boys and girls.

Water Vapor, East US sector.
Quoting Patrap:
A newer Coc seems to be taking over on the direct N of the Older decaying one as it swings almost into the drink proper.

Now the Afternoon is going to bring some changes big time.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



I'm inclined to pay close attention to that. I think you may be on to something. I'm watching those convective bands on the north end of and to the north of the Yucatan ... they are doing interesting things. Should be an interesting afternoon/evening.
Quoting wfyweather:
omg 12z dynamic models have significantly shifted

Expect the statistical ones to do so too.
1242. Levi32
Check out some of the ECMWF ensemble members from 0z last night....first time any of them took Alex into Texas (Darby's tracks are mixed in in the Bay of Campeche)

Quoting Progster:
"THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF...

Convective feedback creates anomalous vertical motion in the area of the gridpoint storms which in turn creates anomalously low surface pressure in the model in the same area. So if convective feedback is appearing over the gulf then the pressure pattern will be incorrectly altered and not reliable.


Yup and IMHO, they will continue to shift east.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Yes indeed! While growing up in my home, hurricane Prep for an impeding storm was all that plus an ice chest for sandwiches, a transitter radio and a box of donuts.
I grew up in Florida and I remember that when we would go out to dinner the placemaps were hurricane tracking maps.I also remember that before satelite imaging,we would go out and look at the waves to evaluate whether a storm was close or not.
i would pay attention to the ECMWF model it has nailed everything Alex has done so far and the trend with that model has been further north
and they will continue to shift this has miss/al written all over it
look how big the high is..not good..
1248. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Looks like Alex is still on land.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would pay attention to the ECMWF model it has nailed everything Alex has done so far and the trend with that model has been further north


slightly further north, but it is still pretty consistent on track
Quoting Levi32:
Check out some of the ECMWF ensemble members from 0z last night....first time any of them took Alex into Texas (Darby's tracks are mixed in in the Bay of Campeche)


I just posted something similar copycat... XP But anyway, I noticed the same thing.
Hello Everyone, As you all know, a few days ago the EURO & most of the other major models were predicting a more Northern Landfall,then the last day or so they started trending south. Well,I feel the trend is north again.My personal opinons about the landfall is a Cat 1-3,Anywhere between Houston,TX & The mouth of the Mississippi. This system has weakened, this will help the system getting pulled north,I know the storm is Moving WNW now,but I feel within the Next 24-36 hours, This system will start to really take a more NNW track.If this system was very strong it would not feel the break in the trough, but it is not strong!!. We shall see...Bob SIDE NOTE" Watch Trends in all the models the next 24 hours.
Hi Everyone-

Been quite a while since I was on. Was busy traveling around New Zealand (amazing btw!).

I know there is plenty being said about Alex, but I'll get back to that in a while.

Sea ice is plummeting at record rates over the past couple weeks. We could easily eclipse 2007's record low...

1253. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY AND OH NO BAD NEWS
I do believe our T.S. is about to change its direction of forward movement. I mean T.D. sorry...
1242:

Looks like Darby is practically guaranteed to hit Florida eventually in some form or another if this keeps up.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


slightly further north, but it is still pretty consistent on track
i am really starting to believe a south texas landfall or the border
The core of Alex is about to emerge.
1257. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I just posted something similar copycat... XP But anyway, I noticed the same thing.


Was not copying you...if you notice you posted the ensemble mean and I followed it up with a post of the individual member spread. If you want credit for giving me the idea to look at the ensemble members, then you have it.
Quoting tropicallsu:
Hello Everyone, As you all know, a few days ago the EURO & most of the other major models were predicting a more Northern Landfall,then the last day or so they started trending south. Well,I feel the trend is north again.My personal opinons about the landfall is a Cat 1-3,Anywhere between Houston,TX & The mouth of the Mississippi. This system has weakened, this will help the system getting pulled north,I know the storm is Moving WNW now,but I feel within the Next 24-36 hours, This system will start to really take a more NNW track.If this system was very strong it would not feel the break in the trough, but it is not strong!!. We shall see...Bob SIDE NOTE" Watch Trends in all the models the next 24 hours.
way too north it appears like a south texas event northen mexico but all the way to the houston area and louisiana no i dont think so .
1260. eddye
wat is darby
1261. msphar
So it got DOWNGRADED to a TD well that is not a terrible thing at this point.
Waverunner, how far south? Cameron Cty?
Quoting StormW:


With a system like this, one minute is too long


For comparison, Katrina had just 3 days 2 hours over the GOM before its first landfall in Louisiana.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode


NHC prediction shows Alex has 3 days 12 hours over water.
Quoting msphar:
So it got DOWNGRADED to a TD well that is not a terrible thing at this point.
come back tonight and you will see an explosion with this thing its starting to enter the gulf of mexico with real hot water
1265. will45
I expect them to shift N untill the ridge builds back in then i look for a shift back towards Mexico
We are getting heavy rain in Biloxi.An outer band?
Quoting Tazmanian:
are storm is all most back overe water and too me its moveing vary slow or it has stalled

Nooooo. I hope not. A stalling behavior can mean a course change...
I have analyzed the inner system, and as several of us have said, there appears to be an inner vortex competing with an outer vortex, much like an eye wall replacement cycle.

Expect some significant wobbling and uncertainty over the next 6 to 12 hours.
I go to a scout camp for a weekend and Alex happens.

What have I missed over the past 4 days?
Quoting Levi32:


Was not copying you...if you notice you posted the ensemble mean and I followed it up with a post of the individual member spread. If you want credit for giving me the idea to look at the ensemble members, then you have it.

Naw, I was just joking around. I just thought it was interesting that we both independently noticed just about the same thing and posted it. Great minds think alike... and sometimes I get on the same brainwave too! XD
Quoting StormW:


Late tonight/early a.m., I would almost expect a turn to the NW (310-315) or possibly close to NNW for a short period.


Are you seeing what some of the models are seeing taking this to the Upper Texas or even Louisiana Coast like the CMC i mean i see the trough digging pretty far south but your the expert i would love to know your analysis of this
Levi, where did you get that map for the euro ensembles?
1273. 7544
hmm looking at the wv here look at the convection to the neast of alex it looks like it wants to break off and head ne look at yhe ull that lloks like its working its way down to the surface going west hmmmm could this try to pull alex ne also as he gets trap up in A TUG OF WAR JUST SOME food for thought . and how new players can change things around nothing is written in stone watch wait and see on this one

Link
Quoting Levi32:
Check out some of the ECMWF ensemble members from 0z last night....first time any of them took Alex into Texas (Darby's tracks are mixed in in the Bay of Campeche)



Wouldn't it be crazy if she developed in the GOM into the B storm?
1275. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nooooo. I hope not. A stalling behavior can mean a course change...



It does appear to have slowed a tad in the last 2 hours.
1366:

Yes, that is Alex' feeder band which is probably going to get sheared off.

The storm is not yet "officially" in the gulf...
1278. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Late tonight/early a.m., I would almost expect a turn to the NW (310-315) or possibly close to NNW for a short period.
1279. Story
Quoting midgulfmom:
Yes indeed! While growing up in my home, hurricane Prep for an impeding storm was all that plus an ice chest for sandwiches, a transitter radio and a box of donuts.


LOL I was incharge of filling the bath tubs full of water. Looks like tomorrow I will be scrubbing them in prep for this thing.
storm is now on the border of yucatan and the gulf. let the games begin.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nooooo. I hope not. A stalling behavior can mean a course change...


Check out the WV loop for the East US sector. How strong was this trough supposed to be?
So many posts coming so fast I can't keep up with them all!
invest94L IS MOVING WNW TO ME.
This is the steering flow for now. This obviously will change, but don't look for any drastic changes in the short term, as far as track goes.

alex is going to miss/al
1286. amd
Quoting RecordSeason:
I have analyzed the inner system, and as several of us have said, there appears to be an inner vortex competing with an outer vortex, much like an eye wall replacement cycle.

Expect some significant wobbling and uncertainty over the next 6 to 12 hours.


the storm just took a substantial wobble to the nw. Alex will emerge over water within an hour or two. Looks like the center is right near 19.0 N 91.0 W.
1287. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Late tonight/early a.m., I would almost expect a turn to the NW (310-315) or possibly close to NNW for a short period.
Do you expect the ridge to build in?
wonder why there hasn't been a update on the NOAA? Maybe they are having a hard time figuring this thing out too.....
Quoting amd:


the storm just took a substantial wobble to the nw. Alex will emerge over water within an hour or two. Looks like the center is right near 19.0 N 89.0 W.


89W?

How about 91W
1290. JLPR2
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
invest94L IS MOVING WNW TO ME.


to me it looks like the ULL is stealing all the energy from 94L
Quoting Levi32:


Was not copying you...if you notice you posted the ensemble mean and I followed it up with a post of the individual member spread. If you want credit for giving me the idea to look at the ensemble members, then you have it.

Naw, I was just joking around. I just thought it was interesting that we both independently noticed just about the same thing and posted it. Great minds think alike... and sometimes I get on the same brainwave too! XD

Sorry I came of as callous. T'was not the intention.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No...
There is a 2p discussion.,. Still on shore, moving wnw, 2 hours or so and in the boc per report.
here is another intresting thing 94L appears to be headed to the bahamas and maybe florida look at the spin with this.
Regardless on what model is right...If I were in SE/S Texas I would start making preparations now, just in case this ridge doesn't hold.
1296. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Naw, I was just joking around. I just thought it was interesting that we both independently noticed just about the same thing and posted it. Great minds think alike... and sometimes I get on the same brainwave too! XD

Sorry I came of as callous. T'was not the intention.


It's all good lol.
1297. amd
hurricanes101: yep, definitely at 91W. My bad, a typo on my part.
Been lurking around this blog for a couple of months now, and I have just signed up today. It's amazing how some people on this blog can forecast these tropical systems so well! Alex looks like he is starting to enter the BOC now, we'll probably get a better idea soon where it's going to head too, but anyone from Mexico to about central louisiana should probably be keeping a close eye on this.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
wonder why there hasn't been a update on the NOAA? Maybe they are having a hard time figuring this thing out too.....


There are no watches or warnings in effect. NHC goes back to every 6 hour updates when there are no advisories.
1300. JLPR2
Interesting looking area in the CATL



You may all continue tracking Alex
XD
If a change of course to the north,BP has said they need 120 hours to evacuate.They may need to begin soon.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
here is another intresting thing 94L appears to be headed to the bahamas and maybe florida look at the spin with this.


that is not 94L, that is the ULL that beat it up lol
1304. 7544
Quoting StormW:


No.


thanks strom w as i slap my face
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is not 94L, that is the ULL that beat it up lol
okay i just noticed that hopefully we can get some rain on southern florida
Quoting itrackstorms:


There are no watches or warnings in effect. NHC goes back to every 6 hour updates when there are no advisories.


oohhhhhh ok. Did not know that. Thanks!
1307. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


No I'm not...I'm right here!
Storm Cantore?...lol
We have had Strong High Pressure over Texas since early May, unless that weakens or moves off Alex can only go to Central or Northern Mexico. Tampico looks about right unless things change.
on a funny note if jim cantore heads to south texas tuesday you all will know what that means
Hi! Alex was at 18.7N, 90W at 2 p.m. advisory.
That would still give it a few hours until it gets into water.


The NHC mentioning this in the 2 p.m. gives one cause to wonder: A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
Quoting Torgen:
All kidding aside, I wonder if all the hurricanes and storms over the Yucatan every year is why the Mayan civilization collapsed? I remember reading somewhere that they engaged in massive deforestation to support their large cities, and can only imagine the erosion, mudslides etc every single year.

Can you imagine trying to deal with recovering from that without wheels, carts, draft animals, or communications other than sending men running from town to town?


Read up on the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool: Link

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
This storm is so wide we can expect to see a lot of rain across the whole Gulf coast.


And chances are we'll see more than just one or two large storms like this in the Gulf this season.

Quoting RecordSeason:
1167:

I agree.

People put too much focus on the "official" cone of uncertainty thing, IMO.

Everyone should always remember that forecasting is a best educated guess based on our present understanding of physics, combined with experience and hunches, but there is still a lot of room for error, and storms often do the exact opposite of forecast.

Betsy
Gordon
Katrina

Are all infamous for doing completely unexpected turns off the coast of Florida, as example.


Actually, the NHC predicted Katrina would make landfall in Buras-Triumph, LA on the day that Katrina moved off Florida. Link
Quoting StormW:


No I'm not...I'm right here!


jajajaja!
1313. scott39
So its a battle between the trough and the ridge. Seeing how this June, I will lean towards the ridge.IMO
Quoting TexasHurricane:
wonder why there hasn't been a update on the NOAA? Maybe they are having a hard time figuring this thing out too.....


There are no watches or warnings in place, so no 2 pm advisory.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi! Alex was at 18.7N, 90W at 2 p.m. advisory.
That would still give it a few hours until it gets into water.


The NHC mentioning this in the 2 p.m. gives one cause to wonder: A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


interesting on the wave, tells me they are watching it already

there was no 2pm advisory on Alex, the 11am showed 18.7N 90.6W

NEW BLOG!!!

And I got first. Heh heh... XD
here in the panhandle I don't wish this on anyone, but I really wish it away from here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There are no watches or warnings in place, so no 2 pm advisory.

...sorry, Discussion
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271807 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

This thing is so far down in Lattitude it will have to move NW now to be threat to TX
Significant change in atmospheric dynamics south of Lousiana. I'm not sure what I'm seeing there to be honest. Within an hour or two a mass of air the size of a state seems to have "jumped" to the right by a degree or so.

Link
Worst case senario = Cat 3 just west on NOLA.
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Been lurking around this blog for a couple of months now, and I have just signed up today. It's amazing how some people on this blog can forecast these tropical systems so well! Alex looks like he is starting to enter the BOC now, we'll probably get a better idea soon where it's going to head too, but anyone from Mexico to about central louisiana should probably be keeping a close eye on this.

Yes, except for a couple trouble makers that come on..this a very talented group. I used to blog quite a bit on this myself and learned a lot from these people. I have taken meteorology classes and worked as a weather observer for an airport in Illinois for a while and still there is much to learn (I'm a microbiologist by trade). I remember when StormW wasn't so well known..I'm glad he earned his status as a premier blogger here. I started out with bloggers like Stormtop...kinda miss his sometimes wild but usually interesting blogs.
I think the worse case would be a Cat 5 anywhere
IMHO...

Storms have a tendency to make up their own minds. And as I've observed in the past, the NHC track is just about on the money 90% of the time.

I've seen battles on this blog regarding the What-If's of steering currents and pressure gradients for a few years now... And no one person has been as accurate as the NHC.

While I can't discount the idea of a holistic shift in model agreement towards the north, I can predict that based on the accuracy of the NHC in the past, they'll probably be right in this case.

South TX/Mexico is probably as far as it'll go.

Upon review of WV imagery, and local RGB and other enhanced loops, there is a distinct possibility of a COC reformation towards the north and a beefier trough. My initial thought on landfall was between the TX/LA border and the AL/FL border.

However, until I see the NHC shift their track to the north, I cannot rely on my own observations. I lack a degree and a team of professionals backing my observations.
Quoting Story:


LOL I was incharge of filling the bath tubs full of water. Looks like tomorrow I will be scrubbing them in prep for this thing.
OMG..YES! I forgot about that... as if I was gonna drink that! but I guess I would if I had too! LOL...

Great Memories Tropical Tank... I remember the Gulf Coast placemats with Miss. on them and the landmarks, etc.. at Annies in Pass Christian.
Quoting tropicaltank:
If a change of course to the north,BP has said they need 120 hours to evacuate.They may need to begin soon.


Yes, 120 hours until the onset of gale force winds. So don't be watching the COC model time frames on a large, strong storm. The time frame to gale force winds will be shortened by a large wind field. Kind of obvious, but worth keeping in mind.
I am giving my own opinions about this storm,as I stated I beleive this is a Cat 1-3 US Landfall,Houston,TX To The Mouth of The Mississippi. I beleive this storm will suprise many folks,When the storm starts heading for Mexico lookout, I beleive this system will turn on a dime heading for the North.By the time it starts its Northward path, I beleive this will be a hurricane,To me, this is all being set up for a Northern Gulf Coast landfall. Weak at first, Then stronger as it heads north, as the system begins its northern path, I feel it will slow down a good bit, then regain its forward speed. We shall See???
1320:

Currently, our combined best shows it has moved 0.3N 0.4W in the past few hours, which is almost true NW.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I mean after 48 hours.


After 28 hours, there would be more than a new bl0g.

Quoting Levi32:
Check out some of the ECMWF ensemble members from 0z last night....first time any of them took Alex into Texas (Darby's tracks are mixed in in the Bay of Campeche)



Clustered to a Mexico track, but one path heading directly over Galveston Island. What do the split red lines represent? And it would be interesting if Darby got absorbed into Alex or it made it into the BOC with circulation intact.
I was always afraid that the bath tub was not cleaned enough!We also used the water to flush the toilet.
I'm putting my money on a sharp turn west on Monday putting Alex in Mexico soon after -well south of the TX border.

If I win, you can all blow me kisses.
Alright guys, I'm leaving, to come on in a couple of hours when the Euro releases. Bye!

-Snowlover123
Quoting CaneAddict

Tex/La border based on What???
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


After 28 hours, there would be more than a new bl0g.



Clustered to a Mexico track, but one path heading directly over Galveston Island. What do the split red lines represent? And it would be interesting if Darby got absorbed into Alex or it made it into the BOC with circulation intact.
Oh my... Is it possible that Darby could be absorbed into Alex? Anyone?
From the satellite it looks like it's moving quite a bit further north in the last couple of frames
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
From the satellite it looks like it's moving quite a bit further north in the last couple of frames


Yes it does, but be careful of those last couple of frames, it has fooled all of us countless times.
I concur. a jog to the north.
center of Alex very close to emerging off mainland Mexico into the warm waters of the Gulf.
Crossing the Yucatan actually helped Alex. The storm had been struggling with consolidating a tight inner core. It doesn't have that problem anymore. The friction with land helped to tighten the storm up. I believe we're gonna see fairly quick intensification rates when he gets back over open water.
1341. Grothar
Quoting charlottefl:
Crossing the Yucatan actually helped Alex. The storm had been struggling with consolidating a tight inner core. It doesn't have that problem anymore. The friction with land helped to tighten the storm up. I believe we're gonna see fairly quick intensification rates when he gets back over open water.


New blog charlotte. refresh and go to the new one
1342. A4Guy
Quoting Hellsniper223:
IMHO...

Storms have a tendency to make up their own minds. And as I've observed in the past, the NHC track is just about on the money 90% of the time.

I've seen battles on this blog regarding the What-If's of steering currents and pressure gradients for a few years now... And no one person has been as accurate as the NHC.

While I can't discount the idea of a holistic shift in model agreement towards the north, I can predict that based on the accuracy of the NHC in the past, they'll probably be right in this case.

South TX/Mexico is probably as far as it'll go.

Upon review of WV imagery, and local RGB and other enhanced loops, there is a distinct possibility of a COC reformation towards the north and a beefier trough. My initial thought on landfall was between the TX/LA border and the AL/FL border.

However, until I see the NHC shift their track to the north, I cannot rely on my own observations. I lack a degree and a team of professionals backing my observations.


Amen. The NHC isn't infallible, but they know what they are doing, for sure. The best and brightest in their field. They have good reason when they dismiss model output...but will adjust the forecast accordingly when appropriate.

Plenty of people on this blog know a lot about meteorology, and I find their analyses very helpful, and often give more information than NHC is willing to give, since there are too many variables (and they have to produce a forecast people can rely on). Too many others on this blog are just throwing darts at a board..which is fine - but you need to know who you can trust with providing accurate info, vs. the wishers (oh...that's a dirty word).
New Euro still says Northern Mexico & Southern Texas, Wake up Mr.Euro your uncle GFS says so lol. Hey, I am putting all my eggs in the Houston to Eastern Louisiana basket. Just my opinion..We shall see
1344. LSU791
Forecast as defined by Websters is "a prediction of how things will turn out." Well I have been reading the multiple forecasts for the last couple of days. At the beginning forecasters agreed on Louisiana to slightly possible Florida panhandle landfall. Then suddenly the weather threw all forecasters a curveball and predictions changed considerably south. That bring us to today. It resmbles a card game when I was a kid called 52 card pick up. Cards are everywhere and noone knows which card to pick up. I believe it was yesterday someone made reference to Alex having an "Ace" trump card yet to be thrown. Well don't look now but Alex may just be hinting that he will drop that card and blow everyones mind. If I were a gambler I would not bet the house. Based on what I have been reading anyone from TX/MX to LA/MS needs to pay close attention. Afterall there are quite a few casinos between LA/MS maybe he wants to play
Hmm water tempatures in the gulf are very high, its almost like a warm eddy of water over southern texas.I wonder if its possible that the oil spill may have contributed to the increase in water tempature in the gulf being a dark colour and all and the daytime heating from the sun.This storm even though weakened now is very large in size and that concerns me, because once it ememerges into the gulf and it gains good circulation.I'm hoping that it does not slow down and stays on westerly track towards a low populated area.I guess we will find out soon, and even though i'm from Canada i will be praying for you all from eastern Mexico to southern Texas.I don't wan't to see a Celia or Darby occur in the gulf, because the water temps are very high and wind shear low, the intensity forecasts on those 2 storms was lost completely once they wen't into rapid intensifaction mode, fighting through the wind shear with great circulation, and water temps less than what is the gulf.
Take a look at the convection being more robust and spreading north and east. Many times the direction of the convection bulging is a precursor of the future track! There are no special formulas to use
Winds definately picking up here in SW La...Some kind of pressure Gradient is goingg down
1348. LSU791
I live just norrth of N.O. and according to the radar these thunderstorms are from the northern most bands of Alex. If this os any indication of what he can become "BEWARE."
Is Alex moving on a more western track now?
There is a weak upper low over Texas per 500 mb analysis and the vapor image. I would believe that this upper level system could induce a more northerly coursr IMO.
1352. hydrus
..................It has been shear city over there Taz.