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Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Even the new gfs is further north and doesnt really make landfall technically. Decouples it right at shore
Last update for the night... I have early Tee times :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
3503. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
hello j


To me?
If so, Hiya! if not well,, Hiya! anyways :)
Quoting btwntx08:

yea but not to far south of the border
Still to close for you. To much water isn't good for the VALLEY.
3505. xcool
COHurricanes2007 dnot do you get ban
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Mauriceville.....I say Orange area because some people have no idea where Mauriceville is. :)
Where the heck...
(j/k, sry)
Lived in Nerdland once upon a time...
3507. xcool
JLPR2 yep and jfv to
3508. 1965
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Bad model, read post 3422.


LOL, I know. Should have added thank God it's the GFS.

Though, with the CMC having a similar look, it is still a bit disconcerting.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Ridge building back in?

Not much else can do that...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Orangefield, Bridge City, Groves, etc.?(I could go on and on...)
A part of Texas I enjoy visiting.
NHC fell asleep, its 2am and the only thing updated is the TWD for the EPAC lol
3512. Story
Quoting midgulfmom:
OOPS! meant central time....


Same here... and I know the intermediate advisory comes in at 1am..

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.


After that I am not sure... learning this as they go along...
000
WTNT31 KNHC 270559
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN YUCATAN BUT STILL PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CHETUMAL
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Same here N Houston

Well, owdy. Also lived N of ouston once upon a time. In umble (ence that lack of "h"s).
3515. will45
Looks like the track shifted south
Well I dont agree with Alex weakening that much...It doesent look as week as the NHC says it is. Oh well...good night all
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Still to close for you. To much water isn't good for the VALLEY.

yep it was bad with dolly came
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CHETUMAL
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR FROM BELIZE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THIS MORNING...AND ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE ALEX MOVES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT DATA FROM
A POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE INDICATED WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WERE STILL OCCURRING OFF THE EAST COAST OF BELIZE FROM NEAR BELIZE
CITY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO AMBERGRIS CAY AND CAYO NORTE
MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
3519. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 yep and jfv to


ah good! xD
Quoting 1965:


LOL, I know. Should have added thank God it's the GFS.

Though, with the CMC having a similar look, it is still a bit disconcerting.


The Canadian does as well.
Here
Say whaaaa????

Alex is down to 40 mph winds at 2 AM? Boy, I was off with my prediction in post 3053 (said 50 mph winds by 2 AM). Guess Alex is not as strong as it appears on satellite.

I'm out, night.
Quoting Levi32:
The 0z GFS parallel, however, still makes the very stupid mistake of forming a 2nd low northeast of Alex from a vort max that spins off of Alex's circulation. The GFS, new or old, still can't handle heat transfers properly.

Is it a spin off of Alex or a low forming on the tail end of the trough?
Thanks Story.. me too!
3524. txjac
atmo ...you are so twisted ...lol


update looks to be the same....
3526. xcool
Quoting will45:
Looks like the track shifted south

track does not change at the imtermedate advisory
3528. will45
Quoting TexasHurricane:


update looks to be the same....

Ok thot it shifted south a lil

Quoting xcool:


Two questions:

1: Is it me or is Alex influencing an abnormally large amount of real estate? It just seems gigantic.

2: Is it spinning off the potential for another hurricane on the East side in the above anim (3526)?
I am out too, night
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, owdy. Also lived N of ouston once upon a time. In umble (ence that lack of "h"s).


And here I thought my aunt was the only one who pronounced Houston without the "H".

It must be something typical of southeast Texas residents...
Well I'm off too and just can't see the storm down to 40 MPH winds.... On Radar it sure looks to be still in the 50 and maybe 55 MPH winds..... Ok well I'm off will check back in tomorrow.....

Have a Great Night All
Taco :o)
Quoting will45:

Ok thot it shifted south a lil



track does not change on intermediate advisories
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dear, I think that's from Ida. Last Nov in the date at the top of the plot.
no the model i looked at was for alex. i didn't post any models, just stated that gfs did the same thing as mm5fsu-gfs did. i don't know what plot has nov. in the date at the top.:)
3535. 1965
3536. xcool
chrisale just image
3537. 1965
Quoting TexasHurricane:


update looks to be the same....

Doesn't change on the intermediates.
3538. will45
Quoting Hurricanes101:


track does not change on intermediate advisories
ok i thot the intermediate advisory was at !00
Quoting KoritheMan:


And here I thought my aunt was the only one who pronounced Houston without the "H".

It must be something typical of south Texas residents...
Just mocking the silent "H" in the Humble, for no good reason at all.

ad fun when my brother played the orn in the marching band at umble igh school...
Quoting xcool:
hello j



???
Good Night everyone..thanks for all the info/maps/discussions, etc. C ya tamara!
3542. xcool
GlobalWarming hey
Quoting btwntx08:

yep it was bad with dolly came
Have many in-laws in the Valley, a few had to leave and stay in Houston with us after Dolly flooded them out. Don't want to see another Dolly so soon.
Quoting sarahjola:
no the model i looked at was for alex. i didn't post any models, just stated that gfs did the same thing as mm5fsu-gfs did. i don't know what plot has nov. in the date at the top.:)
Not sure where you are getting updated info for mm5fsu-gfs, is what I mean. All I see is last November.
3545. xcool
across the Yucatan lol wow
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just mocking the silent "H" in the Humble, for no good reason at all.

ad fun when my brother played the orn in the marching band at umble igh school...


lol
3547. uplater
Quoting chrisale:


Two questions:

1: Is it me or is Alex influencing an abnormally large amount of real estate? It just seems gigantic.

2: Is it spinning off the potential for another hurricane on the East side in the above anim (3526)?


Burst of S. convection still very much part of Alex, IMO.

3548. guygee
Quoting emguy:
Saw some good comments on DMAX and DMIN here...Also good to note that DMAX at night pertains to tropical systems over water, DMAX for systems over land (i.e. afternoon thunderstorms) occur during the day. There may be continued strong convection over Alex through the night, but the typical DMAX/MIN rules will not apply now that he's over land.
I would add that although the nightime Dmax doesn't help Alex's convection over land, it will still add some punch to the convection in the convergence bands still over water.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, owdy. Also lived N of ouston once upon a time. In umble (ence that lack of "h"s).
And that is the CORRECT pronunciation.
Look closer at that radar pic---it is exiting Belize==not the yucatan
I think it's time for some DMAX. :P

Quoting xcool:
across the Yucatan lol wow
.3N/.6W still WNW
3553. xcool
wow ewcmw
3554. uplater
Quoting chrisale:


Two questions:

1: Is it me or is Alex influencing an abnormally large amount of real estate? It just seems gigantic.

2: Is it spinning off the potential for another hurricane on the East side in the above anim (3526)?


And, yeah, Alex is Big Boy. This view maybe helps:

3555. Levi32
Quoting jlp09550:
I think it's time for some DMAX. :P



Diurnal cycles are the opposite over land. The greatest instability is during the daytime. The diurnal cycles we talk about are no longer applicable while Alex is over land.
3556. xcool
ewcmw go N TO
3557. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
ewcmw go N TO


Where you getting that? No site I have has updated to 0z yet.
3558. xcool
Levi32 I DO
Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal cycles are the opposite over land. The greatest instability is during the daytime. The diurnal cycles we talk about are no longer applicable while Alex is over land.


Ah okay, I was kind of hesitating on thinking that, but it doesn't hurt to make sure. Thanks for the info.
3560. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
Levi32 I DO


Are you speaking of the ECMWF or something else? It looked like you were trying to type ECMWF but you said it twice so I don't know if it's a typo.
Quoting xcool:
ewcmw go N TO
Doesn't update for another hour.
atmo- you are so right:) as usual. lol! didn't even look at the dates. i was just hitting animation. as i have said before i am no professional at all.:)
3563. xcool
Levi32 ECMWF
Hello, X.
3565. uplater
Alex occupying 4 countries, CARIB, EPAC, GOMEX ATM. yike.
You have acess to it already, XCool? How awesome. What is it showing?
3567. fsumet
The 00Z ECMWF is a little further north, basically right on the NHC track

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=camer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf& le=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest
3568. xcool
landfall just south of Brownsville
3569. xcool
thanks
Quoting sarahjola:
atmo- you are so right:) as usual. lol! didn't even look at the dates. i was just hitting animation. as i have said before i am no professional at all.:)
It's okay. Would have been obvious in a hurry if Ida didn't happen to go through some of the same territory as Alex...
what else is it showing?
3572. xcool
wowow
Quoting fsumet:
The 00Z ECMWF is a little further north, basically right on the NHC track

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=camer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x7 68&mo=ecmwf& le=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=& ;in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest
??? still only see the 12 Z on June 26. Not the 00 Z on June 27. Dem strawberries growing fuzz...

Now, the fresh UKMET is there...of limited use, IMO.
3574. xcool
Euro is a lot further north...before had it deep in the BOC heading due west...this run brings it deep out of the BOC on a northwest heading...big shift north

wow, what? forget about alex,w hat else is it showing?
Quoting xcool:

which model is this
3578. xcool
btwntx08 EWC
3579. xcool
HE GO NW LOOK AT RADER
emcwf?
3581. xcool
btwntx08 yep
3582. xcool


is it showing anything else?
3584. uplater
Still 00z Dynamics. ( sorry )



3585. SykKid
Quoting will45:
Looks like the track shifted south


The track didn't change.....

3586. xcool
GlobalWarming .no
3587. SykKid
Looks like the Yucatan is doing a number on Alex, down to 40 MPH. I'm calling landfall a bit south of the border as a strong TS/minimal hurricane.
3588. xcool
230am new models come out
Quoting xcool:
GlobalWarming .no


are you sure, how where you abel to tell?
3590. xcool
GlobalWarming .:0
Can someone explain in plain english what the ensemble model is?
im just saying, xcool, because i do not think that mdoel run gave you access to the EATl, or did it? if not, no worries, when teh full run come out?
3594. uplater
Quoting Houstonia:
Can someone explain in plain english what the ensemble model is?


Basically, the idea is to use several computer models, compare them, and split the difference.

Wikipedia: Ensemble
3154 jdsrq "You missed my point...banning all US offshore drilling hurts a lot of people in the US. Hundreds of thousands more unemployed, more destruction to retirement nest eggs, and $7/gal gasoline..."

1) Only a dozen or three exploration ships/platforms are affected by the deep sea drilling moratorium in US waters. Hundreds of thousands of people won't even fit on that many ships.
2) The wait for those ships to begin performance is ~3to4years after a contract is signed. ie The ships can be used immediately by their owners to fulfill those contracts-in-waiting.
And everyone who wishes to remain employed on those ships merely has to say so.
3) Peripheral support companies will shed some employees: there are a thousand or two offshore drilling operations in the GoM which remain unaffected, plus there are the production platforms.
Which isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to eg the number of restaurant jobs lost at beach resorts alone as a side-effect of one blowout. Betcha that more oyster shuckers have lost their jobs due to the spill than the number of jobs that deep-sea drilling-rig and peripheral operations workers could lose as a result of the temporary moratorium.

4) Retirees have the responsibility to choose their stocks, and the executives who run the companies issuing those stocks, carefully. If they are hurt, that's the risk they heaped upon themselves to reap extra rewards without putting in extra work, while caring not a whit about how they made the money.

5) Current operating reserves are so high that any oil price increase will be due to speculator gouging... or new taxes if a filibuster-proof majority of politicians suddenly decides to turn honest.
Make that a veto-proof majority: 2/3rds is also needed to remove Exxon's six Supremes.
6) Most oil used in the US is wasted, especially as gasoline. When oil is used to make eg garbage bags expressly for the purpose of throwing them away, the price of oil is way way way too low.
7) If the US is still sitting on a zillion gallons of oil reserves when the rest of the world finally recognizes that Americans have been buying their valuable oil with cheap money... Well, let's put it this way, it'll be hard not to smirk as America sells them scarce oil at very dear prices.
what is that little spin over la. right now? wv showing alot. we have the spin over la., and we have clouds diving south and pushing east. what is going on? can someone explain to me what i am seeing?
Quoting uplater:


Basically, the idea is to use several computer models, compare them, and split the difference.

Wikipedia: Ensemble


That's what I thought it was (hence the word "ensemble") but I just wanted to make sure. Thanks so much!! :-)
3598. xcool
GlobalWarming .wait for free website


OMG......WOW
Wow. That's where I live. Thanks for posting.

Quoting TampaSpin:


OMG......WOW
3601. uplater
Quoting Houstonia:


That's what I thought it was (hence the word "ensemble") but I just wanted to make sure. Thanks so much!! :-)


N/P.

There are basically two types, statistical ( which are older ) and dynamic ( which are more modern, and take more factors into consideration ).


There are about eight of each kind. The Dynamic GFS & ECMWF are generally thought to be the best. The Dynamics are more complex and take more time to run. For example, right now, the statistical models for 06z have already run. We are waiting for the Dynamics to complete.


The models can and often be very, very wrong, even laughably to, depending on where a system is. Right now, with Alex over land, the models are not much good. They will become more accurate when he gets back out over water.


For example, just notice how much the models have changed in the past 12 hrs. 12hrs ago they *ALL* ( except maybe CMC ) had Alex dying over land, or going nowhere above mid-Mexico. A lot has changed.
Quoting TampaSpin:


OMG......WOW
does it have alex stalling out once inland? thanks in advance:)
3603. JLPR2
94L has nice winds, no circulation though XD

3604. xcool
:0


RADAR
3606. xcool
dreamondx nw ?
Quoting sarahjola:
what is that little spin over la. right now? wv showing alot. we have the spin over la., and we have clouds diving south and pushing east. what is going on? can someone explain to me what i am seeing?
can anyone explain?:)
GREAT information - thanks!

Quoting uplater:


N/P.

There are basically two types, statistical ( which are older ) and dynamic ( which are more modern, and take more factors into consideration ).


There are about eight of each kind. The Dynamic GFS & ECMWF are generally thought to be the best. The Dynamics are more complex and take more time to run. For example, right now, the statistical models for 06z have already run. We are waiting for the Dynamics to complete.


The models can and often be very, very wrong, even laughably to, depending on where a system is. Right now, with Alex over land, the models are not much good. They will become more accurate when he gets back out over water.


For example, just notice how much the models have changed in the past 12 hrs. 12hrs ago they *ALL* ( except maybe CMC ) had Alex dying over land, or going nowhere above mid-Mexico. A lot has changed.
Quoting sarahjola:
does it have alex stalling out once inland? thanks in advance:)
CMC has Alex doing 2 loop-d-loops on it's way to Texas. Don't think that will happen. If steering is strong enough to take it north then it will be pulled fast and fairly straight. look at CMC track on this link.Link
an hr old already thats not up to date
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Link CMC has Alex doing 2 loop-d-loops on it's way to Texas. Don't think that will happen. If steering is strong enough to take it north then it will be pulled fast and fairly straight. look at CMC track on this link.


Link not working.
3612. xcool
btwntx08 ?
unless my computer isnt updating it for some reason
3614. xcool
btwntx08 ;dam
cmc has alex tx/la 126 hrs.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Link not working.
Go back to post 3609. I modified it
NHC i think you might wanna wake up early......and check nearly every major model and what a major change has occured......OMG! CMC, GFS, EURO all take a MAJOR CANE into the Texas / Louisiana Border....other 3 Major Models take Alex as a very large Cane mid way to Texas and then turn ..including the GFDL, HWRF, and the NGP!!! This has trouble written all over it.
Quoting sarahjola:
can anyone explain?:)


Are they talking about LA or Iowa? There's a possible 'nado happening in Iowa but I see nothing in LA.
wait it updated correctly now and looks like nw stil
3620. xcool
lmao
Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC i think you might wanna wake up early......and check nearly every major model and what a major change has occured......OMG! CMC, GFS, EURO all take a MAJOR CANE into the Texas / Louisiana Border....other 3 Major Models take Alex as a very large Cane mid way to Texas and then turn ..including the GFDL, HWRF, and the NGP!!! This has trouble written all over it.
Newer version of GFS has Alex in Mexico
CMC was brutal.

That spin over LA looks to be an Upper Level Low trying to form. GFS moves it east which would be bad. Probably why it is in pretty good agreement with the cmc.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Newer version of GFS has Alex in Mexico

remember just south of the border
3624. uplater
Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC i think you might wanna wake up early......and check nearly every major model and what a major change has occured......OMG! CMC, GFS, EURO all take a MAJOR CANE into the Texas / Louisiana Border....other 3 Major Models take Alex as a very large Cane mid way to Texas and then turn ..including the GFDL, HWRF, and the NGP!!! This has trouble written all over it.


Yep.
3625. xcool
Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC i think you might wanna wake up early......and check nearly every major model and what a major change has occured......OMG! CMC, GFS, EURO all take a MAJOR CANE into the Texas / Louisiana Border....other 3 Major Models take Alex as a very large Cane mid way to Texas and then turn ..including the GFDL, HWRF, and the NGP!!! This has trouble written all over it.
Which euro?0Z ECMWF is tracking to Mexico
Hello all you night owls! Can't sleep so back on watching all the action. (Watching Steve Urkel on TV too! LOL)
Quoting btwntx08:
wait it updated correctly now and looks like nw stil
Into Mexico?
3607. sarahjola 2:09 AM EST on June 27, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting sarahjola:
what is that little spin over la. right now? wv showing alot. we have the spin over la., and we have clouds diving south and pushing east. what is going on? can someone explain to me what i am seeing?

can anyone explain?:)

Abbreviation for Louisana = LA
Abbreviation for Iowa = IA

If you are following an on screen scroll bet you are confused. Be an easy mix up.
Quoting Skyepony:
CMC was brutal.

That spin over LA looks to be an ULL trying to form. GFS moves it east which would be bad. Probably why it is in pretty good agreement with the cmc.

all this stuff digging south and pushing east, will any of this have any effect on alex?
3631. drj27
this will not come to florida so the person earlier saying it could come to fla its not going to happen
Quoting btwntx08:

remember just south of the border
Still to near to the Valley?
i believe the ecmwf became with an aggrement with the gfdl and hwrf to have it just south of the border along with the gfs parallel
3634. xcool
btwntx08 .yeah.
Quoting Skyepony:
CMC was brutal.

That spin over LA looks to be an Upper Level Low trying to form. GFS moves it east which would be bad. Probably why it is in pretty good agreement with the cmc.
GFS moves what East?
Quoting uplater:


Yep.
Nope
OOZ EURO shows Alex making more of a NW turn but still has it going into Mexico S of Brownsville. Models are worthless until Monday most likely. They will be flipping back and forth.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Still to near to the Valley?

yea remember if it holds true it will have effects from alex cause hes has big in size
Quoting btwntx08:
i believe the ecmwf became with an aggrement with the gfdl and hwrf to have it just south of the border along with the gfs parallel
That's what it looks like.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
3607. sarahjola 2:09 AM EST on June 27, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting sarahjola:
what is that little spin over la. right now? wv showing alot. we have the spin over la., and we have clouds diving south and pushing east. what is going on? can someone explain to me what i am seeing?

can anyone explain?:)

Abbreviation for Louisana = LA
Abbreviation for Iowa = IA

If you are following an on screen scroll bet you are confused. Be an easy mix up.

its a lower case Ll
is the 6z coming out shortly? jw
3643. xcool
btwntx08 .did
3645. uplater
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Nope


you don't think the models are taking Alex more to the North than 12-24hrs. ago?
Quoting sarahjola:

its a lower case Ll


Beats me. Nothing on radar that I can see or on severe weather warnings that I can find. I'm no Patrap but I checked all my links most of which I have caged from him over the years. Maybe someone else can figure it out.
I still think that Alex is Mexico bound. Unless the EURO runs start trending further N near Galveston/Corpus Christi i wouldn't be too worried about it right now. Brownsville folks could still get some decent effects with Alex IF the 00Z EURO were to verify.
then where is it lol
Quoting uplater:


you don't think the models are taking Alex more to the North than 12-24hrs. ago?
Not as much as older version of GFS or CMC are showing.
3650. xcool
lmao i posting it
ok :)
no, its not sever weather I'm talking about. i was just wondering about the movement in the atmosphere, and what, if anything it would have to do with Alex.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
GFS moves what East?


The very weak Upper Level Low trying to form over LA..the question posed about the swirl that showed up well on WV over LA. It looks like an ULL trying to get started. But here's a quick check using the 00gfs 300mb..looking at the high up. There's a bit of vorticity trying to form there..very weak compared to the mature ULL (nice swirl N of PR) shearing 94L. ULL can be too close & shear or steal from a storm or make conditions favorable if the storm follows off to the south & well behind the ULL. Here's the 850vort to compare to what is happening & forecast at the surface. scroll right click FWD
nite, all.
3655. xcool
BYE JFV
lol im auxious about those 6z models
Quoting xcool:
BYE JFV



???, -_-.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark1latest.png
3659. xcool
moving NW & half way across the Yucatan


strong trough
3660. xcool
btwntx08 BETTER
Quoting xcool:
moving NW & half way across the Yucatan
Do you have coordinates?
3662. xcool


NOT GOOD Infrared Satellite
3663. xcool
F4PHANTOM .THAT WHAT I SEE
Quoting Skyepony:


The very weak Upper Level Low trying to form over LA..the question posed about the swirl that showed up well on WV over LA. It looks like an ULL trying to get started. But here's a quick check using the 00gfs 300mb..looking at the high up. There's a bit of vorticity trying to form there..very weak compared to the mature ULL (nice swirl N of PR) shearing 94L. ULL can be too close & shear or steal from a storm or make conditions favorable if the storm follows off to the south & well behind the ULL. Here's the 850vort to compare to what is happening & forecast at the surface. scroll right click FWD
Have you looked at the new version of GFSLink
Quoting xcool:
F4PHANTOM .THAT WHAT I SEE
It's all in the eye of the beholder.
Don't even look at the 00Z GFS run. It's bogus. Seems the major problem with the GFS is it can't interpret a lot of energy bundled up together. NWS in Wilmington says the energy splitting and forming off the Carolina coast ain't happening.
3667. xcool
robert88 SO TRUE
Alex wobbled for a while to the NW and now it's back to moving more W.
3669. scott39
Quoting xcool:


NOT GOOD Infrared Satellite
When you look at the far outer bands of the NE Quadrant of this storm towards the Fl. Keys, you can see Alex going more n than W. Its obvious.
Seems there are still kinks to work out with the GFS. Hopefully the upgrade will help out and they can fine tune it in the near future.
3671. xcool
scott39 YOU see that huh
3672. scott39
Sorry, Its not moving more W.
3673. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 YOU see that huh
yes, Its real easy to see.
Quoting robert88:
Don't even look at the 00Z GFS run. It's bogus. Seems the major problem with the GFS is it can't interpret a lot of energy bundled up together. NWS in Wilmington says the energy splitting and forming off the Carolina coast ain't happening.


Nice to see a fellow Wilmingtonian on here!
still looks like nw to me
Alex should start moving on a more true NW course for a while. Steering currents have changed a good deal since earlier today. The NW wobbles will probably become more of a trend. Just how long the trend lasts is the biggest question. On this map, you can see how the flow comes more out of the SSE now. The barb that flows right into Brownsville is more of an easterly barb influenced by the circulation of Alex and the flow is really more SSE all the way to Brownsville currently.



Quoting btwntx08:
still looks like nw to me


Agreed. I'm trying not to be deceived by the deep convection, and instead am trying to follow the low clouds.

However, I will admit that I'm not certain of this motion within the last two frames.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm The last 2 frames it seems to be moving back to the WNW
3680. scott39
Quoting btwntx08:
still looks like nw to me
Sometimes you just have to use your good ole eyes! LOL
3681. xcool
MississippiWx .thank you.strong trough weak Steering
Quoting robert88:
Don't even look at the 00Z GFS run. It's bogus. Seems the major problem with the GFS is it can't interpret a lot of energy bundled up together. NWS in Wilmington says the energy splitting and forming off the Carolina coast ain't happening.
Which version are you referring to? The older or the parallel version? More info available at post #3422 from RyanFSU.
Hmmm...

Quoting scott39:
Sometimes you just have to use your good ole eyes! LOL

LOL
Night time visible imagery from RAMMB (Colorado State) is still very useful. I like to use it more for motion. Using infrared imagery is difficult when trying to discern a motion as the convection expansion is deceiving. In this visible loop, a true NW motion looks to be occurring and that goes hand in hand with the newest steering map that came out at 600UTC.

Link
3686. xcool
lmao
Quoting lopaka001:
Hmmm...


wow u can see where the coc is clearly
3688. scott39
Outer bands of TC tell no lies of what direction its heading at the current moment.
Strangely enough, it looks like Alex wants to form an eye over land. Very intense convection firing at the present time right around the center.
3690. xcool
hes eye hmm
3691. scott39
Quoting MississippiWx:
Strangely enough, it looks like Alex wants to form an eye over land. Very intense convection firing at the present time right around the center.
could that be all the energy it pulling off from around it?
COC is in view for sure..

How long before Alex is expected to re-emerge over water into the BOC?
still waiting on 6z models man im so very auxious lol
3695. xcool
woow eye over LAND HMMM
3696. xcool
btwntx08 06Z ?
Quoting natrwalkn:
How long before Alex is expected to re-emerge over water into the BOC?


30 hours or less.
6z run of the models
3699. scott39
alex is definitely gaining more latitude, than it has been.
Quoting scott39:
could that be all the energy it pulling off from around it?


Probably. It's a massive system with so much heat and moisture and plenty of water surrounding it. StormW mentioned earlier today that Alex might just "eat" the Yucatan Peninsula and not really weaken. I doubt we are seeing a strengthening cyclone since it's over land. However, it is very interesting to look at and Alex may never lose any strength traversing the Yucatan.
3701. xcool


trough
3702. scott39
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably. It's a massive system with so much heat and moisture and plenty of water surrounding it. StormW mentioned earlier today that Alex might just "eat" the Yucatan Peninsula and not really weaken. I doubt we are seeing a strengthening cyclone since it's over land. However, it is very interesting to look at and Alex may never lose any strength traversing the Yucatan.
How strong do expect the trough to be?
3703. xcool
Professional-Met MississippiWx:IM ASKING
Hi yall. Well the models are going farther north but the NHC says no. Rolling my eyes.

MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL BUT THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MANIFEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IN TURN SUFFICIENTLY
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STEER ALEX TOWARD PORT ARTHUR BY
DAY 5...A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORT BY THE BULK OF GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...AND COORDINATED HPC/NHC POINTS FROM
YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL HONOR FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH ALEX WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BE CREATED USING 100 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF DAY 3 BEFORE INCORPORATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 4-7...WITH THE BLEND BY DAY 7
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 ECMWF TO 2/3 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

JAMES

hmmm why the bamms move down?? i think the bams are ingoring the trough lol very unlikely that will happen
3706. xcool
DUCK MODELS
Is it just me but did that thing I just posted say the ridge would erode but oh well??? Lol.
3708. xcool
LOL
Quoting scott39:
How strong do expect the trough to be?


I'm really not sure. Your guess is as good as mine, but looking at water vapor imagery, the trof is still pretty strong and still digging into the 4-Corner States. According to steering maps, the high over the Eastern US has already started eroding. The northern part of the trof is racing across the North-central part of the country, currently over North and South Dakota. However, the southern end of the trof is lagging behind in Arizona and New Mexico. The trof is in the process of "splitting" and it depends on how strong the southern end of the trof stays. A stronger trof would not allow the ridge to build back in as quickly, like most of the models are saying. I was really against a South TX hit earlier today, but I'm a little more on the fence about that now. Seeing as how the steering currents have already shifted out of the SSE, I'm a little skeptical of such a southern track...
Quoting btwntx08:

hmmm why the bamms move down?? i think the bams are ingoring the trough lol very unlikely that will happen
Actually, only the BAMM and BAMS keep it on a more westerly track...if you look closely you can see the BAMD making a sharp turn to the NNE/NE in the BOC toward LA.
3711. scott39
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hi yall. Well the models are going farther north but the NHC says no. Rolling my eyes.

MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL BUT THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MANIFEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IN TURN SUFFICIENTLY
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STEER ALEX TOWARD PORT ARTHUR BY
DAY 5...A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORT BY THE BULK OF GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...AND COORDINATED HPC/NHC POINTS FROM
YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL HONOR FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH ALEX WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BE CREATED USING 100 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF DAY 3 BEFORE INCORPORATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 4-7...WITH THE BLEND BY DAY 7
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 ECMWF TO 2/3 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

JAMES
3712. xcool
almost time for advisory time lol
3714. Levi32
Incredible. Alex is developing an eye over land. It was seen in radar imagery earlier but is now apparent on IR satellite as well.

The BAM models are better for shallow (weak) systems. The low level flow would take Alex straight into Mexico, according to the BAM models. Alex will likely strengthen out over the Bay of Campeche and Southern GOM and go farther north than the BAM models say. It's anyone's guess as to how far Alex actually goes.
3716. xcool
Levi32 WELCOME BACK SIR
3717. scott39
Alex 18.2N 89.1W IMO-- Thats the farthest N its gained between new cordinates, since it was declared a TD.
Ok I stop looking at Alex for a couple hours and it redevelops its partial eye wall and looks like its trying to close it off. Since its on land and the drag of the land slows down the winds down expect it to be anything more than a tropical storm but this is a bad sign of what will happens once it hits the Gulf. It already has the structure so while back over water the only thing it will be working on is picking its winds back up. Personally i think that the tracks going to surprise alot of people and I think everyone needs to keep an eye on it.
earlier when nhc said he was moving west. he was clearly moving nw. now they say ww looks due west.
3720. xcool
homelesswanderer LMAO .YOU GOT LOVE N.H.C
3721. xcool
18.4 89.2
3722. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Incredible. Alex is developing an eye over land. It was seen in radar imagery earlier but is now apparent on IR satellite as well.

Any new thoughts on track?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
earlier when nhc said he was moving west. he was clearly moving nw. now they say ww looks due west.
if you got the JSL map and click the L/L and Tropical forecast points, you will clearly see it is NOT moving due west and yo can also see the possible eye trying to form.
3724. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Any new thoughts on track?


Not really anything new....still watching and waiting. Tomorrow will hopefully reveal some answers.
3725. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Not really anything new....still watching and waiting. Tomorrow will hopefully reveal some answers.
Is it tracking over the Yucatan as forcasted?
3726. JLPR2
WTH Alex! you're overland, accept it! XD
He's still in denial LOL


and 94L is still out there and according to this, its way further south than what I thought


*fixed the image* XD
Quoting hunkerdown:
if you got the JSL map and click the L/L and Tropical forecast points, you will clearly see it is NOT moving due west and yo can also see the possible eye trying to form.


That's what i saw. at the very end look to be going west. i could be wrong. nhc was off by a long way earlier. so far the only thing I've read that didnt swallow the nhc track whole was new orleans outlook. good for them. lol
3728. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Is it tracking over the Yucatan as forcasted?


Pretty much....if we want to be picky it will likely pass slightly to the north of the 10pm forecast track, but the deviation is minor for now. We'll have to see how it's moving when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. It's also moving faster across the Yucatan than forecast.
nam 84 hr: giving me heavy squalls
Put together some slides to give you a better view,allow to load..


3731. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Pretty much....if we want to be picky it will likely pass slightly to the north of the 10pm forecast track, but the deviation is minor for now. We'll have to see how it's moving when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening.
thanks, Do you anticipate time in the GOM at current speed, between 3pm and 5pm
wow new blog!!!!! lol
3733. xcool
btwntx08 HUH
NEW BLOG
3735. xcool
OK
HUGE changes:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND
. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE
.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
3736. WHOA!!
TropicalStormAlex slogs through the Yucatan
Copy&paste 28.7n88.4w, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 17.5N87.2W, 17.3N87.8W, 17.4N88.1W, 17.7N88.4W, 18.0N89.0W-18.3N89.4W, BZE into the GreatCircleMapper.
The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions. Below the map shows:
TSAlex had a heading of 308.2degrees (west of NW and north of WNW),
traveled a distance of 33miles* (~53kilometres) over three 3hours, and
crossed into the mountains of Belize, Guatamala, and the Yucatan at 11mph (~18kph).
from post2714
Quoting natrwalkn:
3736. WHOA!!


"THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK."

eep!
3740. IKE
72 hour GFS(the original).....

3741. IKE
3736....what does BP do...based off of that?
Quoting IKE:
3736....what does BP do...based off of that?


I suspect they will make some kind of announcement later today.
Off to bed for a while. I'll check back later this morning for the next update!!
3744. IKE
126 hr. GFS(original version)....

NEW BLOG
Good morning, wow Alex still looks mighty impressive even over land, one serious dude.
3747. A4Guy
good lord...this blog is gonna be nuts today with those comments from the latest HNC discussion.
3748. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
3749. Torgen
Quoting xcool:
DUCK MODELS


RABBIT MODELS!