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Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2010

Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.


Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. xcool
Hurricanes101 Any Lucky ?
ok time for me to go im tired good night all bb later today :)
1503. xcool
Levi32 .lol
1504. xcool
bye rob .me to
1426 Levi32 "It means very little if we get our first named storm before or after 2005 did."
1427 altesticstorm10 "True...as long as we have 2 name systems in the books by the end of June with another entity close to forming..."

Actually it does, especially after having given up on a TopKill, because both the TopHat and BottomUp operations are highly dependent on continuing good weather so that their respective surface ships can remain on-station.
Any somewhat reliable prediction that a TropicalCyclone might pass over their area of operation means that BP must begin shut-down procedures long enough ahead of time so that their containment ship and two mobile drilling platforms can disconnect, with enough time left over to evacuate themselves out of the area that will probably be hit the hardest by storm.

Even if it turns out that they don't have to evacuate, each&every disconnect will push the completion dates of the BottomUp operation farther into the future by up to a week, with the difficulty of reconnection dependent upon how far toward total disconnect the procedure has gotten.
Probably closer to ten days and up if the drilling platforms have to evacuate. It takes a full day for them to move 100miles at top cruise speed, and a full day back.

The containment operation has less to disconnect, at least inre the time it takes. So less time is needed to reconnect. Plus the ship has a higher top cruise speed. Say a worst case setback of a week.
Still, any total disconnect also means that the mop-up and dispersal operations also go into shutdown for evacuation. Which means that long-term damage will be higher...
...and long-term cleanup of the extra mess will take FAR more time&effort&money than that which would have been expended by the mop-up if the disconnect hadn't become necessary.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
...to be continued...
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 31 2010
====================================

A low pressure lies over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. According to INSAT imgery, the associated vortex T1.0 is centered near 14.7N 64.5E. Numerical Weather Prediction Models and current Meteorological conditions suggest that the low would concentrate into a depression during the nex 24 hours.

The upper tropospheric ridge roughly runs along 17N over the region. The vertical wind shear is low to moderate. There is favorable upper level divergence over the region. The sea surface temperatures is 30-32C over the region.
1507. skep
Convection is flaring up quite a bit on Ex-Agatha..for now..
1509. scott39
Looks like Ex Agathas heart is still beating.
I notice nobody on the blog right now knows how to post an image.... lol
1511. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
I notice nobody on the blog right now knows how to post an image.... lol
how do you


That's a weird location for a high down there in the SW corner of the SW Car....
1513. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
I notice nobody on the blog right now knows how to post an image.... lol
Is that future Alex on the Sat picture this morning?


It looks like the convection has died down a lot. It it all rained out?
1515. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:


It looks like the convection has died down a lot. It it all rained out?
Thats new convection.
circulation centre looks like it's drifted to the NNE....
1517. scott39
It will be an invest this morning. IMHO
1519. skep
I guess with recent political/military events in the middle east, the oil spill won't be covered that much in international news.

My concentration is already heading towards these events, so to make it short:
Convection on Ex-Agatha is getting better by the minute -
1520. scott39
Quoting skep:
I guess with recent political/military events in the middle east, the oil spill won't be covered that much in international news.

My concentration is already heading towards these events, so to make it short:
Convection on Ex-Agatha is getting better by the minute -
I wonder why NHC didnt see more potiential for an Invest in its 8am discusion?
Good Morning

Blog Update

June Outlook and Tropical Update

Interesting.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

June Outlook and Tropical Update

Good Morning 456 thank you for update
1524. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

June Outlook and Tropical Update

Nice report. Is that a blob or a possible invest in the Carrb.?
Quoting scott39:
Nice report. Is that a blob or a possible invest in the Carrb.?


I discussed that in my blog.
Quoting Weather456:


I discussed that in my blog.
Looks like shear in that area is pretty low this morning though. Any chance this will affect Cayman ?
1527. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


I discussed that in my blog.
uh ok, Its looks like a wait and see. Thanks
1528. IKE
Looks like more of Ex-Agatha may be off shore. Waiting for the sun to come up over it and try and verify.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like shear in that area is pretty low this morning though. Any chance this will affect Cayman ?


Conditions in the northwest Caribbean will be somewhat favourable for redevelopment of Agatha but that remains a small window of opportunity considering hostile conditions await in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3-5 days.

Regardless of development, some level moisture will spread over the Caymans, Western Cuba and the Southern portion of Florida over the next 3-4 days.
All I can say is: Um...

I go to bed with a dissipating circulation and wake up to a rejuvenated blob of convection. SSTs seem conductive, shear looks to be low to moderate, and the only things I see standing in its way are eventual interaction with land and the fact that it is currently a bit weakened from traversing the mountainous terrain of Central America. I could see this becoming an invest within the next 24-48 hours.
1531. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Looks like more of Ex-Agatha may be off shore. Waiting for the sun to come up over it and try and verify.
Thanks Ike, Looks like something going on down there! Looks also can be deceiving sometimes. LOL
1533. IKE
I wouldn't be shocked if it's not given an invest today either.

Looks like the center may be offshore.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

June Outlook and Tropical Update



Mornin 456, thanks for the update but sometimes it seems pointless posting updates if people is going to ask you the same questions that you already answered. Read the blog people for tarnation sake.
1535. WAHA
Wow, it's been so long since I've been here...
but hurricane season has officially started.
My interests are seasonal.

Anyway, I'll check on the convection in the North Caribbean...

(I REALLY want to be in the hurricane haven...)

Okay, back from the NOAA loop. The convection is not to be anything. But, I will post something on my blog...
1537. scott39
Quoting weather42009:


Mornin 456, thanks for the update but sometimes it seems pointless posting updates if people is going to ask you the same questions that you already answered. Read the blog people for tarnation sake.
I havent heard tarnation in awhile! LOL
1538. leo305
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

the gulf is becoming more favorable for development.. shear is dropping alot.. and the anticyclone has placed itself right over that convection

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
Quoting Weather456:


Conditions in the northwest Caribbean will be somewhat favourable for redevelopment of Agatha but that remains a small window of opportunity considering hostile conditions await in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3-5 days.

Regardless of development, some level moisture will spread over the Caymans, Western Cuba and the Southern portion of Florida over the next 3-4 days.
Thank you. We really need the rain.
1540. IKE
Do not be too optimistic about the remnants of Agatha, the odds are stacked against development. It could become an invest since invest classification have no relationship with the chances of development.
1543. scott39
Can anybody confirm a blob or not a blob in the Carrb?
1544. leo305
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
With water temps already as high as 30C in the atlantic, and lots and lots of 29C, I wouldn't be surprised to see a completely, ridiculously powerful hurricane at some point this season...


well considering there has been a CAT 5 for the past 5 years..
1545. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Do not be too optimistic about the remnants of Agatha, the odds are stacked against development. It could become an invest since invest classification have no relationship with the chances of development.
Is there an anticyclonic blocking for it?
Please tell me that I was partying too much last night and drank too much beers is that pre-invest 91L in the making
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Please tell me that I was partying too much last night and drank too much beers is that pre-invest 91L in the making
no dude it isnt the party thats alex in the making.
Despite a late start to the melt season and near-average values for sea ice extent in March and April, sea ice is now at its lowest on record. I wouldn't be surprised to see the minimum dip below 2007 levels.



Meanwhile, ex-Agatha is exploding in a bullseye convection center. This is just as the GFS predicted. Its small size makes it easy for it to undergo rapid restrengthening as it enters the warm Caribbean and loop current, and it's even possible to get a mini-hurricane (Tracy, anyone?) out of this storm.
Quoting scott39:
Can anybody confirm a blob or not a blob in the Carrb?


I officially declare it a "Blob"!
Quoting scott39:
Can anybody confirm a blob or not a blob in the Carrb?


It's a blob. It's just not that potent yet...
give it another 1hr or two and see if is really just a blob!!! not!
Quoting scott39:
Is there an anticyclonic blocking for it?


There isnt an anticyclone over it. The system is located in the left entry region of an upper ridge axis over the Caribbean, which is diffluent in nature. Thus we have ask ourselves is that convection self sustaining or diffluent enhanced? We would have to wait for it to persist.



1548 - Arctic sea ice is in danger of rapid melt. Agatha could re-develop into a potent mini-hurricane. Proof of rapid global warming?
Quoting leo305:


well considering there has been a CAT 5 for the past 5 years..


Only 2005 and 2007 had cat 5's, in the past 5 years.
1556. leo305
Quoting Weather456:


Only 2005 and 2007 had cat 5's, in the past 5 years.


wasn't Gustav re classified as a CAT 5 when it hit Cuba?
Quoting leo305:


wasn't Gustav re classified as a CAT 5 when it hit Cuba?


No. However there is not much difference between a 155 mph and 160 mph storm. Despite this, Gustav was a cat 4.
Quoting Weather456:


Only 2005 and 2007 had cat 5's, in the past 5 years.
paloma was the nearest to cat 5 with 144mph
1559. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


There isnt an anticyclone over it. The system is located in the left entry region of an upper ridge axis over the Caribbean, which is diffluent in nature. Thus we have ask ourselves is that convection self sustaining or diffluent enhanced? We would have to wait for it to persist.



Thank you, What parts of remnants is left over from Agatha?
1560. IKE
Ramsdis floater needs adjusting...

1562. leo305
@weather

I think the anticyclone is over it.. otherwise that convection would not be so circular

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
Quoting scott39:
Thank you, What parts of remnants is left over from Agatha?


The mid-level energy near the Belize coast.
Quoting leo305:
@weather

I think the anticyclone is over it.. otherwise that convection would not be so circular

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF


Convection can be circular in a diffluent environment. Also the convection is not where the system is located.
1565. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


The mid-level energy near the Belize coast.
So, this convection will probably wane?
1566. leo305
Quoting Weather456:


Convection can be circular in a diffluent environment. Also the convection is not where the system is located.


the system is reforming, based on satellite.. there seems to be a mid level circulation forming near or right around were that convection is.. I don't know where the surface low is, but I do see some developing circulation around that convection.
Quoting scott39:
So, this convection will probably wane?


If its just diffluent flow then it will. if its self sustaining then it should remain.
1569. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


If its just diffluent flow then it will. if its self sustaining then it should remain.
How long will the test last to see?
SST anomalies continue to decrease in the MDR while increasing in the GOM. Sill above climatology.

Beginning of May






End of May


Quoting leo305:


the system is reforming, based on satellite.. there seems to be a mid level circulation forming near or right around were that convection is.. I don't know where the surface low is, but I do see some developing circulation around that convection.


I would would agree with you that center reformation is possible in these cases
1572. leo305
based on those maps, LA NINA is really trying to come in
1574. leo305
Quoting Weather456:


I would would agree with you that center reformation is possible in these cases


lets see what happens =)
Quoting scott39:
How long will the test last to see?


Basically monitoring it as the day progresses.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SST anomalies continue to decrease in the MDR while increasing in the GOM. Sill above climatology.

Beginning of May






End of May




The tripole is seen very well there.Warm in deep tropics,cold at subtropical Atlantic and warm north of that.
Good morning

The blow up of convection in the Gulf of Honduras is not colocated with the area of maximum vorticity which is on the coast of Belize. If you take a look at the shortwave loop you will see the rotation right on the coast with the blob in an area of diffluence offshore.

Something to watch though, especially if they start to match up.
Be back a little later....

June Outlook
Is that just me or do I see a very large upper level Anti-cyclone in the caribbean

Quoting DestinJeff:
caan anyone explain why the blog gts stretched, and how to fix it? I am on IE, that isn't going to change. If anyone knows a trick in IE to make it not strectch that is great,

thanks.


Under Tools->Internet Options->Advanced->Multimedia-> Make sure Enable automatic image resizing is checked.
1581. leo305
the convection is growing..



AOI/XX/XL
MARK
17.8N/86.2W
1583. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The blow up of convection in the Gulf of Honduras is not colocated with the area of maximum vorticity which is on the coast of Belize. If you take a look at the shortwave loop you will see the rotation right on the coast with the blob in an area of diffluence offshore.

Something to watch though, especially if they start to match up.
What does diffluence mean?
1584. leo305
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
17.8N/86.2W


that would put the center right under the convection.....o-O

the visible is showing a spin too.. but I can't really tell
1585. Becca36
Quoting DestinJeff:
caan anyone explain why the blog gts stretched, and how to fix it? I am on IE, that isn't going to change. If anyone knows a trick in IE to make it not strectch that is great,

thanks.

I never figured out any such trick so I switched to Google Chrome...
Quoting DestinJeff:
caan anyone explain why the blog gts stretched, and how to fix it? I am on IE, that isn't going to change. If anyone knows a trick in IE to make it not strectch that is great,

thanks.
JEFF ON IE if ya look at the address bar on the right you will see what looks like a piece of paper thats torn in half click that that compatibility mode that will fix the blog to normal
Is there anyone up and around over here who can explain why there's a flame coming out of the BP riser on the seabed?

Live feed
Quoting scott39:
What does diffluence mean?


air rising from the lower levels to replace winds that are spreading out in the upper atmosphere. Rising air cools, condense and forms clouds. Extreme diffluence can cause air to rise even if surface convergence is absence. In that case we call it elevated convection. If a system s depending on diffluence for convection then it is not self sustaining.
1589. IKE
Quoting scott39:
What does diffluence mean?


The wind vectors are spreading as they rise creating divergence. This is enhancing the shower activity
To me it looks like the convection is NE of the center and trying to move in on the center
1592. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


air rising from the lower levels to replace winds that are spreading out in the upper atmosphere. Rising air cools, condense and forms clouds. Extreme diffluence can cause air to rise even if surface convergence is absence. In that case we call it elevated convection. If a system s depending on diffluence for convection then it is not self sustaining.
Thanks
Quoting shoreacres:
Is there anyone up and around over here who can explain why there's a flame coming out of the BP riser on the seabed?

Live feed


That isn't a flame. It's methane gas. You have a low res feed that makes the gas bubbles look like a flame. Try the BP site for a better feed.
1594. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


The wind vectors are spreading as they rise creating divergence. This is enhancing the shower activity
Thanks
is it me or is nhc having issues with thier flash loop updating images?
Roatan island has calm winds and a rising surface pressure of 1010 mb.

If the wind becomes SW or S and the pressure starts to fall that is the time to become concerned. For now, all we have offshore Belize is rain.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
JEFF ON IE if ya look at the address bar on the right you will see what looks like a piece of paper thats torn in half click that that compatibility mode that will fix the blog to normal
Thank You KOTG Worked for me as well. And Good Morniing to you my friend
1598. leo305
I hate looking at the oil.. just spilling and spilling.. it really makes me feel horrible.. how can we do this to the ocean..

Quoting kmanislander:
Roatan island has calm winds and a rising surface pressure of 1010 mb.

If the wind becomes SW or S and the pressure starts to fall that is the time to become concerned. For now, all we have offshore Belize is rain.
agree!!
Quoting kmanislander:
Roatan island has calm winds and a rising surface pressure of 1010 mb.

If the wind becomes SW or S and the pressure starts to fall that is the time to become concerned. For now, all we have offshore Belize is rain.
Hopefully we will get some rain in Cayman from this
Back later
Quoting shoreacres:
Is there anyone up and around over here who can explain why there's a flame coming out of the BP riser on the seabed?

Live feed


This is just my opinion....I don't think that is flame.. I think it is hydrates. They are lighter than oil (in weight and color) and have over the days I have been watching, tend to exit the riser at it's top. It "appears" to be shooting out white and then being lost inside the darker oil..
If you look on the radar images of Belize the surface circulation is still visible Link
Quoting msgambler:
Thank You KOTG Worked for me as well. And Good Morniing to you my friend
morning ms glad to help
1605. leo305
Quoting belizeit:
If you look on the radar images of Belize the surface circulation is still visible Link


something is trying to spin up around that rain..
1606. scott39
Man, Those "blobs" can be misleading to us rookies. Thankfully we have some experience on here to explain, where even i can understand it. lol
Cay Caulker, Belize Webcam:



Link
Thanks for the input, folks. Everyone over at The Oil Drum seems to be lazing around this morning, so this new addition hasn't gotten much discussion over there.
well then kmanislander keep us up to date with conditions in Roatan today yeah
1611. afj3
Quoting scott39:
Man, Those "blobs" can be misleading to us rookies. Thankfully we have some experience on here to explain, where even i can understand it. lol

I am a rookie, too. Does that blob mean there is no regeneration of Agatha?
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg"


Looks like Agatha is not death
Quoting scott39:
Man, Those "blobs" can be misleading to us rookies. Thankfully we have some experience on here to explain, where even i can understand it. lol
nice thunderstorm but like kman stated we wait for falling pressure wind reports and further convective dev

at the moment nothing more but a area of interest
1614. scott39
Quoting afj3:

I am a rookie, too. Does that blob mean there is no regeneration of Agatha?
No i dont think so. The center of circulation has to match up with the convection.
1616. afj3
Quoting scott39:
No i dont think so. The center of circulation has to match up with the convection.

Thanks! As a rookie where can I find that data online! Where can I find the numbers to make intelligent posts???
1617. scott39
Quoting afj3:

Thanks! As a rookie where can I find that data online! Where can I find the numbers to make intelligent posts???
For me its really learning off of the people on here who know what thier talking about! You will figure that out over time.
1618. guygee
Apologies if this has already been posted.

Dr. Samantha Joye, Professor of Marine Sciences, U. Georgia, currently being funded by NOAA.
Gulf Oil Blog. Latest Entry: Trust your senses Published: May 31, 2010 12:38am

"One of the strangest things about these deepwater plumes we’ve been tracking is that we see a strong CDOM signal but there’s been no visible oil in the deepwater. That changed today: we saw oil in the deepwater. We sampled a station about a mile south of our previous stations (you can get our position and our ship track on www.marinetraffic.com, just look for the R/V Walton Smith in the Gulf of Mexico sector) and we saw the most intense CDOM signals that we’ve seen so far. The Pelican cruise sampled near here three weeks ago but the CDOM signals we are seeing now are much stronger..."
Much more at the link above.
1619. scott39
Goodmorning StormW
1620. P451
Have a good Memorial Day everyone. Don't forget to thank your vets!

Spent all day Sunday at the beach here in Jersey and had a good sized dinner party afterwards. Couldn't have had better weather.

Water was 60 but still found my way into it a dozen times for a few minutes here and there.

One oddity: Big red jellyfish. Normally we don't get them until August. Not sure what that means...but something is going on out there in the ocean.
1621. IKE
Looks like it's(the center), half-on and half-off the coast of Belize.
1622. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it's(the center), half-on and half-off the coast of Belize.
Is it stationary?
1623. Grothar
Excerpt from Stephen C. Weber:

Link of entire story below; interesting if anybody remembers it.


From June 3, 1979 straight through March 23, 1980, an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico was spewing up to 30,000 barrels per day. In just 200 feet of water, the Mexican oil company Pemex scrambled to shut down the Ictoc I exploratory well, but to no avail.

The gusher kept flowing, despite attempts to lower a "cone" or "sombrero" onto it. Officials tried to inject the gusher with drilling mud and fire metal orbs into it, but that didn't work either. Finally, after months upon months of oil spray, relief wells succeeded in relieving the pressure, giving conventional methods the leverage to seal the gusher.

If this sounds familiar ... Well, it should.

"It's not just the disaster itself that should sound familiar to you," said MSNBC host Rachel Maddow, appearing on a Wednesday night broadcast. "It's also the techniques that they were using at the time to try and contain the spill."

Link
1624. IKE
Now that I look again, maybe it's further east.

I'll try with my glasses on....
The calm before the storm?



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
1626. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Is it stationary?


Can't really tell much movement...
1627. Grothar
Quoting IKE:


Can't really tell much movement...


Got your glasses on yet? Don't feel bad. I can't see any movement either. Just a blob.
1628. leo305
Quoting afj3:

Thanks! As a rookie where can I find that data online! Where can I find the numbers to make intelligent posts???


the center can re form under that convection, which I believe is likely at this point..

1629. aquak9
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide.

Reading back, with one raised eyebrow.
1630. pottery
Good Morning. Today is the last day of May.
As we enter June tomorrow, the Tropical Atlantic is "looking" like May is supposed to look.
But most of May "looked" like June.
It's all rather strange!

Showers overnight, but a bright morning. Going to be hot and humid.
Good morning.
1633. pottery
Quoting StormW:
I made this offer a couple of seasons ago, and it still stands...anyone in or close to the Tampa Bay area, who feels like traveling to Palm Harbor, you are welcome to drop in, and I will show you what goes into my analysis and forecasting. We'll pull up the tools I use, and go over each.

"Storm"

A Very nice offer. Wish I could drop-in one day...
1634. Grothar



Just want to post this for all my friends I lost in Vietnam and to all those others, past and present, who served and gave more than they took. It would be nice if we just reflected a few minutes today for their memory.
ok it seems to me llc and midlevel circ are coming together right between the coast of belize and northern coast of honduras also system drifting ene ever so slowly.
1636. Patrap
Taps, now Taps..


Monday 31st May 2010
Sarigan volcano, Mariana Islands

A submarine vent erupted 11 km south of Sarigan Island on 30th May 2010. An ash cloud reached a height of 8 miles. A large area of floating debris was observed south of Sarigan island, and discoloured water above the vent. A 0.5 m high tsunami was recorded at the island.
1639. leo305
mid level /near surface spin now apparent on the visible satellite assosiated with the convection
Any graphic about how is the shear in the area?
1642. leo305
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Any graphic about how is the shear in the area?


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

there you go, shear is dropping
1643. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


Got your glasses on yet? Don't feel bad. I can't see any movement either. Just a blob.


Had to dust em off first.

Yeah...I put them on. Center looks offshore to me. In the extreme western Caribbean.
Agatha now on the Atlantic floater at NHC.
1645. IKE
86-87W and looks to be between 17 and 18N.
Quoting IKE:


Had to dust em off first.

Yeah...I put them on. Center looks offshore to me. In the extreme western Caribbean.

Agree. This is not 2009.
1647. afj3
Quoting StormW:
I made this offer a couple of seasons ago, and it still stands...anyone in or close to the Tampa Bay area, who feels like traveling to Palm Harbor, you are welcome to drop in, and I will show you what goes into my analysis and forecasting. We'll pull up the tools I use, and go over each.

"Storm"

That's the most generous thing I have heard in a long time. Big time.
1648. Grothar
Link

If you want to hear something really nice go to this link and at the bottom of the page, turn up the volume. Just thought it was appropriate today.
Just want to post this for all my friends I lost in Vietnam and to all those others, past and present, who served and gave more than they took. It would be nice if we just reflected a few minutes today for their memory.

Moment of Silence. Moment for Tears.
1650. leo305
Quoting IKE:
86-87W and looks to be between 17 and 18N.


I think its around 87W 17.3N based on visible satelite
1651. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:

Agree. This is not 2009.


Agree. I wish I could advance forward 6 months...to Dec. 1st, 2010 and know...the totals in the Atlantic and the status of the oil catastrophe.
1652. afj3
So, as a resident of South Florida, will Agatha's remains come here????
1653. bjdsrq
Quoting StormW:
I gotta wait until we get better Visible imagery. I'm gonna keep an eye on ex-Agatha...Although there doesn't appear to be a well defined LLC, there are hot towers going up in the convection...3 good ones on current visible.


Any prospects for eventually getting some much needed rain here in SW FL from this? Or will it be shot off to the NE if/when it gets to a higher latitude?
Hey Storm looks pretty interesting on the RGB at the NHC in motion.
1655. leo305
Quoting afj3:
So, as a resident of South Florida, will Agatha's remains come here????


It' is expected to impact South/Central florida directly.. atleast that's what the models said until agatha was killed off.

at the very least (it's in the forecast) expect alot of stormy weather come mid / late week
development emminent look at the feeders
1657. Grothar
Quoting IKE:


Had to dust em off first.

Yeah...I put them on. Center looks offshore to me. In the extreme western Caribbean.



When I find mine, I'll take another look! LOL
Morning All! Happy Memorial Day! Always remember those that have gave up so much to protect us. My dad lost 2 brothers that hit our family hard when i was small but, it seems like yesterday each time the news came that one was gone.
Quoting StormW:
I gotta wait until we get better Visible imagery. I'm gonna keep an eye on ex-Agatha...Although there doesn't appear to be a well defined LLC, there are hot towers going up in the convection...3 good ones on current visible.


One would assume that the center is somewhere in between those hot towers, rather impressive this AM. 12hr clock started at first blow-up.
1660. afj3
Quoting leo305:


It' is expected to impact South/Central florida directly.. atleast that's what the models said until agatha was killed off.

at the very least (it's in the forecast) expect alot of stormy weather come mid / late week

Good. Rain without damage is a good thing!
Quoting StormW:
I made this offer a couple of seasons ago, and it still stands...anyone in or close to the Tampa Bay area, who feels like traveling to Palm Harbor, you are welcome to drop in, and I will show you what goes into my analysis and forecasting. We'll pull up the tools I use, and go over each.

"Storm"


I would love to take you up on this. I am in Bradenton. What is your life schedule like? Weekend mornings? Afternoons? Weekday Nights? PM me and thanks for your openness to sharing information.
1662. SLU


The Atlantic continues to remain on fire. The tripole remains very well defined. Meanwhile the Pacific temps are definitely La Nina-bound.
1663. leo305
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
development emminent look at the feeders


I noticed, I agree, this is developing at the very least..
1664. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:
Link

If you want to hear something really nice go to this link and at the bottom of the page, turn up the volume. Just thought it was appropriate today.


Very Nice Grothar.. I had seen the photos and words before, but without the music...

Brings back a bumper sticker I saw some time ago, If you can read this thank a teacher, thank a soldier it is in English... (Not meant to offend the many international contributors to this site - just a little American patriotism and reflection of how our country was founded)

Also - The thing about Ixtoc I was really interesting. What made them think that if it didn't work before in 200 ft of water, it would all of a sudden work in 5,000 ft of water. DELAY tactics and things to make US think that they are trying...

Good morning folks...I want to join Grothar in a few minutes quiet reflection on those who have gone before us to protect our freedom...

We can never repay those that gave the last full measure of devotion so that we might enjoy the lives we've lived but we do honor their memory and we are grateful, truly, for the sacrifices they made...


The window of less Shear is coming!
Quoting IKE:


Agree. I wish I could advance forward 6 months...to Dec. 1st, 2010 and know...the totals in the Atlantic and the status of the oil catastrophe.

That ain't happenen' Going through this one invest at a time.
WVLoop
The anticyclone as moved to somewhere near the coast of Venezuela I think.


Conditions appear to be changing fairly quickly. BBL
1668. Dakster
Looks like Agatha just put on the Wind Shear Wipers...

Good Morning FLOODMAN!
Quoting leo305:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

there you go, shear is dropping


Thank you for the graphic. Do you have the link to the site from where the graphic is as I lost it?
1670. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


Very Nice Grothar.. I had seen the photos and words before, but without the music...

Brings back a bumper sticker I saw some time ago, If you can read this thank a teacher, thank a soldier it is in English... (Not meant to offend the many international contributors to this site - just a little American patriotism and reflection of how our country was founded)

Also - The thing about Ixtoc I was really interesting. What made them think that if it didn't work before in 200 ft of water, it would all of a sudden work in 5,000 ft of water. DELAY tactics and things to make US think that they are trying...



Thanks, Dak.

On the article about the 1979 spill, it stated that they finally stopped the leak with lead balls. Maybe that is what they need for this one.

I am surprised know one remembers that one. Those who were alive at the time, course. It was actually worse than this one.
1671. IKE
Definitely offshore.
1674. WxLogic
Good morning...
Quoting TampaSpin:


The window of less Shear is coming!

yep indeed
1676. Ossqss
On this day we commemorate the brave individuals that gave their life for this country.

Flag etiquette for this day.

"On Memorial Day the flag is displayed at half staff until noon and at full staff from noon to sunset."


History of Memorial Day





1677. WxLogic
Agatha's remnants are now in the NW Carib. If it's able to fight off some of the shear and keep the vorticity signatures it has from 850MB to 500MB stacked enough it might have a chance to redevelop into the first TD in our HURR season.

It currently has a decent low level convergence and upper level divergence.
We could do 2000 post on those that paid the ultimate price and wouldn't do it any justice. I hope to spend some time with my family this afternoon enjoy some quality time, that we too often take for granted. Looks like Center is just inland or on coast llc wise. The models look a little better this morning with there previous forecast. Low level looks like it wants to go north. I believe shear will keep this in check. You can definitely see the explosive heat content of the water.
1679. JamesSA
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Dak.

On the article about the 1979 spill, it stated that they finally stopped the leak with lead balls. Maybe that is what they need for this one.

I am surprised know one remembers that one. Those who were alive at the time, course. It was actually worse than this one.
There were some big differences. For one, the well was only in 150 feet of water. The oil was all at the surface and we did not have these massive underwater plumes.

Location was also better. The currents took most of the oil onto the pretty much barren sandy barrier islands of South South Texas and Northern Mexico. That was bad for the islands but much better than having oil in environmentally sensitive marshlands.

After 30 years the beaches were finally looking really clean again.

This is looking like a much worse environmental catastrophe due to the depth, the heavy use of dispersants at depth, and the proximity to very important wetlands.
1680. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Generally, Saturdays are best...but if you need to visit during the week, we can work something out.


morning Senior, I am going to take you up on that as well.
Good morning all


Thank you to all the Vets out there!!!!!!
new blog up
StormW go online to chat
1684. hercj
StormW have you noticed that the NHC Atlantic Floater is named Agatha?
NEW BLOG
1686. Grothar
Dr. Masters just posted a new blog. Come on folks MOVE IT! MOVE IT!

And thanks Dan and Flood. Let's go to the new blog and see what is new?
1687. hercj
Quoting PcolaDan:


Memorial Day - To those that gave the ultimate sacrifice


This was moving. Thank You
Just coming out of lurk mode to give my thanks to all the folks who have served our country so bravely and selflessly for our entire history.

THANK YOU to all of you and God Bless!
I believe I was the first to point it out using the belize radar....****pats himself on back****,;)