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Tropical disturbance forms in Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on May 31, 2007

A large area of disturbed weather developed over the Western Caribbean last night. This disturbance is bringing winds of up to 55 mph over the ocean, according to the 7:07am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite. The NOAA Buoy off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula recorded winds this morning at 30mph, gusting to 35mph. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, but the disturbance does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday as it moves to the northeast over Western Cuba and South Florida. Wind shear is a not-too-unfriendly 10-20 knots, and the shear is expected to remain at these levels through Saturday. Thereafter, most of the models are indicating that the disturbance will get caught up by a strong trough of low pressure with high shear that should stop further development, and sweep the system northeastward out to sea. I doubt this system has enough time to get organized into a tropical depression before wind shear rips it up, but the disturbance should bring welcome heavy rains to South Florida over the weekend. Lake Okeechobee recorded its record lowest water level yesterday--8.97 feet (about 4 feet below normal). This was the lowest level since record keeping began in 1931, according to a Miami Herald article this morning. The lake has been dropping about 1/2 per rainless day. I expect about an inch of rain over the area this weekend, which should temporarily stabilize the lake water level.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean tropical disturbance.

Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach hurricane forecast due later today
I'll be posting an updated blog around noon EDT today, when the latest seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast by Dr. Bill Gray and company will be out. I'll also post an update on the Western Caribbean disturbance.

June outlook and the Barometer Bob show
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June tomorrow (June 1). I plan to offer 2-week hurricane activity forecasts on the 1st and 16th of each month (except August 1, when I'll be on vacation). These forecasts will have the probability of hurricane formation for the coming two weeks, where the hurricanes will go if they form due to the prevailing steering currents, plus a look at how sea surface temperatures, wind shear, the trade winds, and dry air coming off of Africa are affecting hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Tonight, I'll be a guest on the Barometer Bob Show, if you want to hear a sneak preview of my outlook for the first two weeks of June and hear about the tropical blob in the Western Caribbean. You can listen at barometerbobshow.com, or dial in via their toll-free number 1-866-931-8437 (1-866-WE1THER).

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Dr. M....been watching that area ... will be interesting to see what develops.
June outlook and the Barometer Bob show
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June tomorrow (June 1). I plan to offer 2-week hurricane activity forecasts on the 1st and 16th of each month (except August 1, when I'll be on vacation). These forecasts will have the probability of hurricane formation for the coming two weeks, where the hurricanes will go if they form due to the prevailing steering currents, plus a look at how sea surface temperatures, wind shear, the trade winds, and dry air coming off of Africa are affecting hurricane formation in the Atlantic.


I'll be eagerly awaiting that.
YIPEE!!!! Thanks for the good news Dr Masters. Sure hope we get more than 1" of rain.
Was at the south end of Lake O yesterday afternoon and got lots of pictures, it was very sad to see beach and grass where water should be and see boat dock and boat ramps out of water.

Maybe this system will hold on and become a rain maker for all of Florida!!!!
(except August 1, when I'll be on vacation)

Away when the hurricane season starts to really get active. A good person can always use a good break.

Thanks for the update Dr.
Thanks for the input on this system Dr. Masters. Though you did crush my hopes of some rain up here in the FL panhandle. :P
Cancun Radar:

Posted By: weathers4me at 1:39 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

Can someone explain what "invest means" Is that to mean that the information verifies? Thanks


What it essentially means is that a system is being officially recognized as having the potential to develop.Typically in the Atlantic,a recon flight will be scheduled to fly in to it(hence the term invest),the NHC will run it's suite of models(the ones specifically designed for hurricanes) on it,and they may mention potential on the Tropical Weather Outlook,if an invest occurs during the season.
Recycled Post
Posted By: HIEXPRESS at 1:15 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

It does look like something could start there, but instead of the usual W or N to the Fl panhandle, is pulled NNE by the trough that's still there , gets sheared & is pulled across Cuba or just skirts it & brings (more) rain to S FL. Just my wild guess.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/hurricane-AMMA/hgt_vort_1000_atl_animation.html
No change with the new CSU forecast.Still 17/9/5.
Tropical Weather Outlook,if an invest occurs during the season.

If it can stick around for tomorrow we should have activity on the first Tropical Weather Outlook.
As the Cancun radar shows this system does not have much convection as of now, but it might gain some after entering the GOM.

any input?
Dr. Gray's forecast:Link
Lower Keys starting to feel the rain..
South Florida Radar
The Caribbean Sea...

A 1006 mb surface low pressure center developed at
31/0900 UTC near 19n87w near the Banco chinchorro...just east
of the Yucatan Peninsula

her is what the nhc has to say about 92L
hey Gamma...nice pics as it really puts the lack of rain into perspective
AHH, GS, Hi.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while...
Just commenting on how little things have changed in that time.
Forecast remains the same, chance of an above average hurricane season.
ok h23....since i'm your number one basher on the cut and paste.....let me also say...good job on the 'no change" prediction for the may predictions
I think the chance is there for a TD to form as dr.masters mentioned windshear is only 10-20kts and will remain that way till saturday.
and thanx for that one h23...lol...i think i just read that somewhere above...LOLOL.....ok....have to work...will be back later...enjoy guys..don't let the low out of your site
Lower Keys starting to feel the rain..

Thank goodness, I can almost smell the rain now.
Dr.M: Nice blog & Thank you.
Good Morning everyone. Looks like Fla will be getting some much needed rain at least a little and maybe it will help, I guess anything is better that none at all. Hopefully Fla will be getting more in time. I really hope so for the Floridians sake that is. I'll go back lurking know. Hope everyone has a very nice day.
You can see there's a spike in the low windshear towards florida that might allow for the formation of a TD.

so when is this thing supposed to be headed north? Next week? Living in S. GA and hoping that the rain holds off till my hubby plays his b-day golf game on Sat...
Poor Barbara in the EPac. Pray for rain Florida
Take a look at Cuba from the Key west long range radar and compare it to the Water Vapor image. I can't imagine how much rain is falling south of Cuba in the Caribbean. Jamaica must be having some mudslides with all that rain.
Link
Does anyone have an idea of what's up with PodWeather.com? It's been down for the last couple of days. Have used it extensively for weather radio shows. Link
I think I heard hear yesterday or the other day the new forcast from Bill Gray is coming out today or am i wrong? Just wondering if someone had the link. I somehow lost all my weather links when I got my new computer. I know about the TSR but can't remember how to get there. Can some one links some so i can bookmark them.
I put the link up further in the blog.
Look above Sheri.
Bill Gray update

Visit my website sheri for more links.
Ok WBK Thank you.
On the latest visible, I can start to make out the surface low of Invest 92L. Tropical Depression, here we come.
H23 & Homegirl: Thank You very much. I'll go to your blog and get them H23. Nice to talk to ya agian. Have a great day.
Sheri
Why would they do that stormW?There's no evidence of a closed low pressure system.
I don't think those statements are issued until 24 hours before striking land am i correct?
welcome sheri, ttyl!
You can certainly make out the turning on this visible.
StormW: Good Morning. everyone thanks for the help. I'll be back later. Hubby's telling me i need to get to work. I have a 36' Contender to sand and buff, I think it might be a long day.
Sheri
Posted By: StormW at 2:24 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

weatherboykris,
key word here is "disturbance"


A STDS is issued when a system is developing rapidly or changes are quickly occuring in terms of structure or intensity.That doesn't seem to be happening here.
I sure do see it hurricane23.

If I'm not mistaken, most June/July storms form off of frontal systems. Remember Beryl last year?
Special Tropical Disturbance Statements are used to furnish information on strong formative, nondepression systems. These are usually issued for systems strong enough to produce heavy rains and strong winds that do not yet meet the criteria of tropical or subtropical cyclones. These products are transmitted only as needed.
WPBHurricane05 looks at this loop on the nasty weather that will be pulled into florida.

12z NAM out 54 hrs..Link
It's official: Lake O at record 8.94 feet

BY ERIKA BOLSTAD
MiamiHerald.com

Lake Okeechobee is at its lowest level since they started keeping records in the 1930s.

It was measured at 8.94 feet at 6:30 a.m. Thursday, down from 8.97 on Wednesday.

The South Florida Management District believes the record was actually broken sometime Wednesday, but they did not measure until Thursday morning. They said the new low level is due to evaporation, winds and heat on Wednesday.

''This is a new low for the lake,'' said Randy Smith, a spokesperson for the South Florida Management District.


17-9-5, get ready for a busy season guys
I know hurricane23. We need the rain but not all at once. If this system keeps it up it is going to cause flooding concern. I know in Dade County there is a problem with flooding.
Lets hope FPL is ready just in case......
FPL still needs to replace some poles in my neighborhood. We have those old wooden sticks and they always end up snapping in half. Oh well I guess they do there best.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:32 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.
WPBHurricane05 looks at this loop on the nasty weather that will be pulled into florida.


...is that a "pinhole" in that loop??? lol...difinitely has some rotation going on there! If shear doesn't get it soon, looks like we could have Barry sooner???
anything new happening here? I am in "wishcasting" mode now and wanting this to form and bring us some rain....not necessarily to Miami Dade, they do not need it; they are above average already and had flooding last week. Bring it to Central and North Fla.... Lake O is in bad shape and needs water quickly.

Oh yes, they "say" they are "NOT" pumping water out of Lake O for the canals but I saw pumps running yesterday so they are pumping. That is the main reason it is dropping so quickly.
can some body post the computer modles
Posted By: seflagamma at 2:40 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

anything new happening here? I am in "wishcasting" mode now and wanting this to form and bring us some rain....not necessarily to Miami Dade, they do not need it; they are above average already and had flooding last week. Bring it to Central and North Fla.... Lake O is in bad shape and needs water quickly.

Oh yes, they "say" they are "NOT" pumping water out of Lake O for the canals but I saw pumps running yesterday so they are pumping. That is the main reason it is dropping so quickly.


I'm sure there was a perfectly good reason for the pumping,and it may not even have been from the lake.Did you see the pipes coming directly from the lake?
Just a question for DR.Masters or anyone else else reading his blog? I read his blog and was just wondering where he came to the conclusion that the system was heading for South Florida? I did not see any computer models mentioned thought I'd ask? Since the system is developing don't the models need time to intialize the system correctly?
And the water is dropping quickly because there has been no rain to the north of the lake or over it.
Good point about the model initialization sporteguy03.The models are currently ranging from South Florida to the panhandle.I personally think the latter is what will happen.Dr. Masters apparently believes the former.
GFS 48 hrs. Link
The model initialized with a mid level RH/vertical motion:

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

...SYSTEM FCST TO CROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL...

THE GFS ANALYSIS HAS A MID LVL RH/VERTICAL MOTION MAXIMUM OVER OR
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SATL
IMAGERY. THE GFS BRINGS HVY QPF ASSOC WITH THIS ERRONEOUS FEATURE
TO SRN FL BY THU NIGHT/FRI. OVER THE EXTREME WRN CARIBBEAN THE
NAM PMSL FIELD SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
COMPARE WELL TO SFC OBS THAT SUGGEST ONLY A TROF AS DEPICTED IN
THE 00Z TPC SFC ANALYSIS.
Iam also leaning towards a more southern track as the GFS is showing.
I personally believe Central/North Florida as well.... this thing will be pulled northward by the TROF to the west of it and the HIGH pressure to the east of it.

The fact that the models disagree though. The GFS has it as a weaker low pressure system and the other models have it near TD or TS strength. That could also make a difference in the future path.
I just think the trough is moving slower than they(the southern models) think it will due to the cut-off low that's pulling it in the Midwest.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF... THE 00Z NAM IS W OR NW OF
PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHOWS HIGHER SFC PRESSURES OVER FL. THE 18Z RUN
WAS SLOWER WITH THE SFC LOW COMPARED TO OTHER NAM RUNS FROM THE
PAST DAY. LAST 12 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW NO WELL DEFINED TRENDS
ALOFT WITH ONLY TYPICAL RUN TO RUN DETAIL DIFFS.

OVER THE PAST 12 HRS THE GFS HAS TRENDED EWD WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE IT SHOWS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY F24 LATE THU. AFTER
THAT TIME THE 00Z GFS TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/NWD WITH ITS SFC
WAVE THAT TRACKS THRU FL INTO THE WRN ATLC. LATEST GFS RUNS TREND
MUCH FARTHER EWD THAN YDAYS 00Z GFS. LIKEWISE OVER THE PAST DAY
THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MID-UPR TROF CROSSING THE
SRN/SERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO.

...SYSTEM FCST TO CROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL...

PREFER THE 12Z ECMWF OR COMPROMISE WITH THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER
UKMET/21Z SREF MEAN AS THE BEST OPTION FOR THIS VERY UNCERTAIN
FCST. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AS THERE IS NOT YET A WELL
DEFINED FEATURE OVER THE REGION WHERE THE SYSTEM IS FCST TO
ORIGINATE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER CONVECTION NOW FLARING
UP OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN S OF 20N LATITUDE MAY PLAY A PART IN
ITS EARLY EVOLUTION. APPEARANCE OF FEEDBACK IN GFS/NAM QPF FIELDS
ALSO RAISES POTENTIAL FOR CONTAMINATION OF THE SFC PATTERN. THE
GFS FCST OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE MORE AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THAN OTHER GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SUSPECT GIVEN THAT ITS
VERTICAL MOTION/RH/QPF MAXIMUM NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY SATL IMAGERY FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE FCST. ALSO
THE GFS/NAM QPF DO NOT APPEAR TO COMPARE WELL TO AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION NOW OBSERVED OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z
NCEP-GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS BUT
OTHERWISE REFLECTS THE GFS IDEA. THRU ABOUT F48 LATE FRI... THE
NAM/UKMET/12Z ECMWF OFFER THE BEST CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF THE
MID-UPR TROF CROSSING THE SRN TIER/GULF AND LEADING SFC PATTERN.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM STRAYS TO THE LEFT SFC AND ALOFT THOUGH
ITS SFC LOW DEPTH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF THRU THE PERIOD. THE
UKMET IS FAIRLY SLOW... AND BY F72 IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE
21Z SREF MEAN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS... THE
CANADIAN OFFERS A QUESTIONABLY FAST/STRONG SYSTEM... REACHING NC
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NO FARTHER NWD THAN 30-32N. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY... POSSIBLE ERRORS WITH EARLY HRS OF THE GFS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT NAM FCSTS... AND POTENTIALLY ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE
SFC PATTERN BY FEEDBACK... FAVOR A COMPROMISE SOLN CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF OR COMPROMISE WITH THE SLOWER AND WEAKER UKMET/21Z SREF
MEAN.

RAUSCH
Any chance this will get significant rain into SE Georgia? Sick and tired of these wildfires-
Named Storms. Epac 2 Alantic 1 ^_^. Go Epac.
This really looks like its way too early to tell anything. The visible, radar, models, and QuikSCAT are all out of sync.
They haven't been run yet.They will be run at 2 PM.Expect them to be ready by 3:30.
Don't forget more organized, better developed storms aren't as affected by other variables as weaker disturbances are. Where it strikes will depend on its intensity.
thanx for the update DR. M
JP,
Channel 9 will update on this.
The morning upper-air data from Jamaica has 20kt upper level winds:

I heard on Channel 9 from Tom Terry a High was building in from the west and FL will have Hot and dry weather in the 90s next week....not good news, how long can we go without rain? I'm eagerly awaiting his Hurricane Safety Tour a must for anyone living in Central FL.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 10:43 AM AST on May 31, 2007.

Posted By: seflagamma at 2:40 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

anything new happening here? I am in "wishcasting" mode now and wanting this to form and bring us some rain....not necessarily to Miami Dade, they do not need it; they are above average already and had flooding last week. Bring it to Central and North Fla.... Lake O is in bad shape and needs water quickly.

Oh yes, they "say" they are "NOT" pumping water out of Lake O for the canals but I saw pumps running yesterday so they are pumping. That is the main reason it is dropping so quickly.

I'm sure there was a perfectly good reason for the pumping,and it may not even have been from the lake.Did you see the pipes coming directly from the lake?




YES, been going to that lake for 20 years and know a pump when I see one. big pump, and water gushing from the lake into the canal that runs between South Bay and Clewiston. I was driving over it watching it. Wish I had gotten a picture of that also. They ARE pumping water from the lake but just don't want the public knowing.
RECON FLIGHT ON TAP FOR TOMMOROW BY NHC...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
May 31, 2007, 9:22AM
Hurricane forecast out day before season's start


2007 The Associated Press

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FORT COLLINS, Colo. With the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season a few hours away, researcher William Gray released his newest forecast Thursday still showing an expectation for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

Gray, based at Colorado State University, described it as a very active season. He said there was a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast.

There is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, according to the new forecast; the long-term average is 31 percent.

The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, is 49 percent; the long-term average is 30 percent. There is also an above-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, according to the forecast.

Thursday's forecast was largely unchanged from Gray's last forecast, released in early April.

"We expect an above-average hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and lead author of the forecast.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms last year and five hurricanes, two of them major. None of the hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated parts of the Gulf Coast.

___

Alright,a recon flight in the GOM.
You know it's June.
If they are going to send an Aircraft Reconnaisance Plane, the NHC should issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. Maybe it will come out soon.
I expect something from the NHC later this afternoon.
A recon flight being scheduled is a fairly routine thing,and it does not warrant a special tropical disturbance statement.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 2:54 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

They haven't been run yet.They will be run at 2 PM.Expect them to be ready by 3:30


kris, the global models & GFDL that are run at 2 will not be out until closer to 8pm. This includes the GFDL, Ukmet and GFS. Then next CMC & Nogaps should be out around 2pm, but they started running around 8 this morning. The amount of data these models ingest takes quite awhile to digest.

Anywho, back to work...Will be interested to see if the CMC holds course at 2.

Find the many great model pages from here.
MIAMI (Reuters) - The Colorado State University hurricane research team renewed its forecast for an "above average" 2007 Atlantic storm season on Thursday and predicted 17 tropical storms, with nine growing to hurricane strength.


Of those, five would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 mph (177 kph), the team founded by forecast pioneer William Gray said in its revised forecast.

The updated forecast issued on Thursday was unchanged from the team's April 3 forecast for the six-month storm season that starts on Friday.

The researchers said there was a 74 percent chance that at least one major hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline in 2007, with a 50 percent chance that would happen on the U.S. Atlantic Coast and a 49 percent chance on the Gulf of Mexico coast.

An average season brings 11 tropical storms, with six reaching hurricane wind speed of 74 mph (119 kph) and two growing into major hurricanes.

Other private and government weather researchers have also predicted a more active season than average. But so far none have forecast anything like a repeat of record-breaking 2005, when 28 tropical storms spawned 15 hurricanes, including Katrina which flooded New Orleans and parts of the Gulf coast.

I hope this system can develop into a named Storm, with the tax free Holiday around the corner well tonight at Midnight in FL it really would reinforce the fact we are in Hurricane season from JUNE 1st-NOV 30th and storms can hit on any of those days. I think people can be lulled into a sense of security that nothing really forms to August and it is important to remember the season starts before that.
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 3:00 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

I heard on Channel 9 from Tom Terry a High was building in from the west and FL will have Hot and dry weather in the 90s next week....not good news, how long can we go without rain? I'm eagerly awaiting his Hurricane Safety Tour a must for anyone living in Central FL.



Now that we are in June I wouldn't wory too much about that now, sounds more to me like they are starting to think dark thoughts that the dryness willcontinue next week. The NWS says otherwise, they are saying expect a west to southwest flow with adeep tropical airmass in place expect climo rain chances everywhere

I currently don't think it will dry out either unless things change, right now it sounds to me like the news channel is thinking dark thoughts.

A lot of people seem to be dpressed about this drought like there will be no end, it will end in time, you can never pinpoint when but droughts end. Time will tell just when, but no reason why it can't soon.

Lets look at the glass half full, I live in dry crackly central Florida so I know what its like.
Good day, everyone; interesting development in the Caribbean...Thanks for keeping up on it for all of us. Will check back with you later.
I meant the non-globals SJ.LBAR,the BAM models,etc.
Hey guys. Expanding on what SJ said, I wouldn't expect the CMC to change much if at all. It has been solid for several days now bringing a stronger system over the peninsula.

I would be surprised if they did a 180 at this point.
GOES-12 Low Cloud Product Link
aqua-1 swath paths Link
Not sure about Terrys forecast. If central Fl temps reach 90 or above the seabreezes might induce thunderstorm boomers. I remember Danny Tranner when he was the anchor saying 90 was the magic temperture. Recently the temps have been in the 85 range.
Satellite Swath Schedules
Select Date for all satellite overpasses
9 days future predicted coverage Link
GOM SST's 60 hour model Link
104. IKE
And the coordinates they have picked to investigate means they expect a due north course for today...

"D. 24.0N 87.0W"....

That's south of Mobile and Pensacola...
Nonsense Jp you are just lookin for trouble See you this afternoon.
107. IKE
well more like NNE Ike, position today is 19.5N 87.0W

And 24.0, 87.0 is due north.
IR of GOM...in motion Link
110. IKE
And 24N, 87W is about 300 miles..slightly over...west of Key West...apparently the NHC thinks this is going more toward north Florida.
Terry also uses the WRF Model. I thought that was experimental?
Hey JP. We have action my friend! Maybe my rain dance last night worked:-)
Barb weakening in the Pacific...
From US Army Corps of Engineers:

Okeechobee Inflows (cfs):
S65E 0 S191 0 Fisheating Cr 0
S154 0 S133 Pumps 0 S135 Pumps 0
S84 0 S127 Pumps 0 S2 Pumps 0
S71 0 S129 Pumps 0 S3 Pumps 0
S72 0 S131 Pumps 0 S4 Pumps 0
Total Inflows: 0

Okeechobee Outflows (cfs):
S135 Culverts 0
S354 400

S77 577
S127 Culverts 0
S351 600
S308(BAD)30
S129 Culverts -NR-
S352 400
S131 Culverts L8 Canal Pt 1
C5
-NR-
Total Outflows: 2007 (BAD VALUE)

South Florida Water Management still has to outflow water from Lake O to the canals to support the water supply for 1/3 of the State (southern portion). The problem, as you can see above, is the INFLOW numbers from the many Rivers and Canals that empty into the lake. If INFLOW numbers are high then the OUTFLOW will be even higher. At zero INFLOW, the lake's OUTFLOW is used for population and agriculture but not for drainage to the Everglades. Without a steady OUTFLOW stream from the lake, the salt water from the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straights invades the Everglades causing harm to the precious aquifer below the ground and disrupting the natural fresh water recycling process. Central Florida must produce some INFLOW or the cost of water maintenance itself will rise over the years and ultimately creates a tax issue as well as a health concern. Pray for rain!!

When will this affect Florida...I have a flight tomorrow at 5 PM out of Jacksonville
Posted By: IKE at 3:23 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

And 24N, 87W is about 300 miles..slightly over...west of Key West...apparently the NHC thinks this is going more toward north Florida.



apparently the hydrometeorological prediction center thinks so too if you look at their 3-7 day graphic
hey - what's that water in the pic? It's been so long but i think it looks like...rain?
Posted By: C2News at 3:25 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

When will this affect Florida...I have a flight tomorrow at 5 PM out of Jacksonville


This won't disrupt any flights,at least not tomorrow.
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=22729

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin Not Sure That Global Warming Is A Problem

May 30, 2007; Washington, DC - NASA Administrator Michael Griffin tells NPR News that while he has no doubt "a trend of global warming exists, I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with."

In an interview with Steve Inskeep airing tomorrow on NPR News' Morning Edition, Administrator Griffin says "I guess I would ask which human beings - where and when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that's a rather arrogant position for people to take."

STEVE INSKEEP: One thing that's been mentioned that NASA is perhaps not spending as much money as it could on is studying climate change, global warming, from space. Are you concerned about global warming?

MICHAEL GRIFFIN: I am aware that global warming -- I'm aware that global warming exists. I understand that the bulk of scientific evidence accumulated supports the claim that we've had about a one degree centigrade rise in temperature over the last century to within an accuracy of 20 percent. I'm also aware of recent findings that appear to have nailed down -- pretty well nailed down the conclusion that much of that is manmade. Whether that is a long term concern or not, I can't say.

MR. INSKEEP : And I just wanted to make sure that I'm clear. Do you have any doubt that this is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?

MR. GRIFFIN: I have no doubt that global -- that a trend of global warming exists. I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with. To assume that it is a problem is to assume that the state of earth's climate today is the optimal climate, the best climate that we could have or ever have had and that we need to take steps to make sure that it doesn't change. First of all, I don't think it's within the power of human beings to assure that the climate does not change, as millions of years of history have shown, and second of all, I guess I would ask which human beings - where and when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that's a rather arrogant position for people to take.

MR. INSKEEP : Is that thinking that informs you as you put together the budget? That something is happening, that it's worth studying, but you're not sure that you want to be battling it as an army might battle an enemy.

MR. GRIFFIN: Nowhere in NASA's authorization, which of course governs what we do, is there anything at all telling us that we should take actions to affect climate change in either one way or another. We study global climate change, that is in our authorization, we think we do it rather well. I'm proud of that, but NASA is not an agency chartered to quote "battle climate change."


Interesting view by the Nasa Admin!

121. Inyo
e-pac systems look ill this morning.
122. IKE
And the latest NAM model run 12UTC has landfall in the Florida panhandle in 60-66 hours..
123. IKE
Posted By: K8eCane at 10:26 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 3:23 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

And 24N, 87W is about 300 miles..slightly over...west of Key West...apparently the NHC thinks this is going more toward north Florida.



apparently the hydrometeorological prediction center thinks so too if you look at their 3-7 day graphic


Can you provide a link please?
Jp, temperature does matter. there is always a "convective temperature" where storms fire. probably what is happening in florida is that dry air at the surface, and warm air aloft, has caused that convective temp to go up, so 90 doesn't spark t'storms.
no but go to the HPC
they have a website
click on the 3-7 day graphics
hpc.noaa.gov or maybe hpc.nws.noaa.gov or maybe www.google.com and type hydrometeorological in the search box
www.google.com and type hydrometeorological in the search box


thats what i do
Darn TCW you beet me to it!
Keep in mind those were produced yesterday!
GFS 12 hour forecast:

beat*
The "Invest" had some EXTREMELY cold cloud tops and deep convection develop during the diurnal maximum last night, but it's died off a bit since then.It can definitely be classified as a Tropical Disturbance now. It's Still showing no signs of organization but it is a very broad area of low pressure and deep convection. We've still got to keep an eye on it as the CMC and UKMET both predict it to become a semi-organized area of low pressure moving over the Florida Peninsula.

Link to Models
Link to Satellite Imagery
Link to My Forums
weatherboychris

pls resize your post
thanks. That was quick LOL
138. IKE
Thanks...here's one that was produced today...and yes, it does show the most precipitation in north/NW Florida!
I remembered to resize right when I posted it,LOL.
140. IKE
Here's the link.Link

Dr. Masters...I can't get anything to edit.
hey stormW
you have mail!
GFS 24 hour forecast:

Anyone notice the 1009 mb low in the SW Caribbean in the graphic posted by weatherboychris ?

If that comes to pass it would bear serious watching
If you're talking about the one right on South America,don't worry about it.That's a semi-permanent feature,due to the topography of the region.
KRIS AHHHHHHHHH- Resize it again please.. you stretched the blog
The blog exploded!
oh ok
Lol.. thanks kris
Sorry.
Amazing, while the arid plains of Fla, Ga, and Ala bake in a drought, the lush tropical areas of west Tx, Ks, and Ne are drowning...

Link
Anybody have the site for the SFWMD model plots. I have never been able to find the site. Thanks.

It appears to me, looking at the latest visible imagery, this disturbance is becoming better organized with a more well-defined COC and noticeable banding features. This is going to be very interesting.
Amazing, while the arid plains of Fla, Ga, and Ala bake in a drought, the lush tropical areas of west Tx, Ks, and Ne are drowning...

...What goes around, comes around.
Google "SFWMD TC models" and you'll find it.
It must be my screen settings but the image that kris post looked just fine. I guess all computers are different.
I just got Dr. Gray's new Predictions for this Season. Take a look:
Information obtained through May 2007 continues to indicate that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2007 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 185 percent of the long-term average.

This late May forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early April prediction due largely to the continued trend towards cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either cool neutral or weak-to-moderate La Nia conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages.


Dr. Gray's New Predictions
With FireFox 2..no worries mate
Same here WPB'cane05.I forget to resize because it seems ok to me 'cause of my computer.
For those of you that may want to monitor local conditions in the Caymans during the season ( especially if we get a system over or near the islands )here is a good link to the weather station at the George Town port. It does require flash player to be loaded on your computer

Link
161. IKE
I'm on firefox and it's fine.
It'a a grim day for those cruise shippers in Cayman under that blob

7.5 inches of rain this month in George Town
HELLO EVERYBODY FROM MIAMI FLORIDA,CAN ANYBODY HAVE A SUGGESTION IF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM?,WE ARE TAKING OUR DAUGHTER TO ORLANDO (DISNEY WORLD) SATURDAY JUNE 2 THRU JUNE 6,I WONDER HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE ORLANDO AREA THIS WEEKEND ANY COMMENTS? THANK YOU
Iam seeing banding features somewhat better organized over the past few hours over this broad area of LP.

Visible loop
We now have west winds in Cancun!There is now a surface circulation!

LOL Kmanislander just posted the same link

if anyone wants the cuban radar it here, but seems to be down as info is for 7th May
Ok,now I geuss they could issue a STDS
168. IKE
It does seem to be getting it's act together w/a nice spin to it.
Currently it looks like Orlando will experience rain this weekend with winds gusting up to 20 MPH, maybe higher.
The 00z GFS had tropical storm force gusts in South Florida,WPC'cane05.
Im running IE 7 and i never have any problems with pics resizing the screen. What are the rest of you seeing?
My office overlooks the harbour. Winds are dead calm but not a day for the beach !
173. IKE
"Observed at: Cancun, MX
Elevation: 23 ft
[Light Rain]
73 F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 F
Wind: 4 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
Overcast 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)".....

Yes...NW winds! Low pressure is around.
I just got Dr. Gray's new Predictions for this Season. Take a look:
Information obtained through May 2007 continues to indicate that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2007 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 185 percent of the long-term average.

This late May forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early April prediction due largely to the continued trend towards cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either cool neutral or weak-to-moderate La Nia conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages.


Most Important Item Right Now...Click!
That link is to Dr. William Gray's latest predictions.. Forget about that weak low in the Caribbean.. This is the future. Read it!!


My Forums, Has Dr. Gray's Forecast in the Hurricanes/Tropics Section
Alrght...I'm starting to buy the idea of a TC in 24 hours or so.
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN

HurricaneFcast...I don't know if you're trying to start a discussion on Gray's forecasts or something,but you don't need to post links twice.It's kind of annoying.
I am moving this weekend so I am biased either way! Need the rain but, I don't need my furniture ruined either!
Conditions at Buoy 42056 as of
1450 GMT on 05/31/2007: Link
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN


182. MTJax
We have updates:

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS ON THE 12Z NAM APPEAR TO BE MINOR AND DO
NOT SEEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ITS FORECAST.

...SYSTEM FCST TO CROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL...

THE NAM HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY FASTER IN BRINGING A SFC LOW
INVOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NWD THRU THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO FRM 24
TO 60 HRS ALONG WITH AN UPR TROF/CLSD LOW OVER THE W CTRL GULF OF
MEXICO THAT IS INTERACTING WITH IT. THEREAFTER THE SYS EJECTS INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

ORRISON
Gray's Probabilities for Landfall Location

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 74% (average for last century is 52%)



2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%)



3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%)



4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN
185. IKE
.THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW


Getting stronger...moving north...non-tropical.
Patrap,notice how the pressure is pretty much holding steady.The low is overcoming the normal diurnal pressure variations...
Gulf Scot.. It's a very weirdly formatted page and hard to copy and paste some parts, so here's the link...

Dr Gray
I notice that the NAM shows the system weakening after landfall...indicative of a tropical forecast.
I knew that statement was coming....
SHes a jelling.Good read. Heres the GOM SSt's next 60 hours..Link
Dr. Masters Will post a new blog soon.. So You should be ready to switch blogs soon.
CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
So...I geuss the main blog has finally started to get active for the season.We've had nearly 200 posts in just over 2 hours.
194. IKE
But if it's a non-tropical low...it shouldn't be named.
ROFL!!

60 hour GOM wind forecast too...they a changing. Link
That is what I am seeing.... this system has a better chance to develop as a "hybrid" or non-tropical low than a tropical system. Already, the low pressure area looks to be off to the west of most of the thunderstorm action and has a curved (comma) look to it.

It can still develop as a tropical system but won't do so in the Gulf of Mexico. We shall see.
Posted By: homegirl at 3:58 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

ROFL!!


Well if you'll laugh at nothing,I'll laugh at nothing.LOL!
Well tropical or not someone is going to get rain.
Also, in Dr. Grey's Forcast, did you notice that Andrea will not be included in the final tallies!
Oh wait....were you laughing at my post?Ok then,continue laughing.LOL
It is asymmetrical because of shear
Link


maybe it's me..... but I can almost see some ccw rotation here. Could 92l be getting more organized??
Why is everybody starting to post the same thing... the nhc's special trop. disturbance. It gets annoying. It seems ppl just want to get attention.
What season had the most sub-tropical storms?
Posted By: COHurricanes2007 at 4:01 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

Why is everybody starting to post the same thing... the nhc's special trop. disturbance. It gets annoying. It seems ppl just want to get attention.


Calm down,man.They just all did it so close together they didn't know the others were posting the same thing.
207. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 10:58 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
60 hour GOM wind forecast too...they a changing. Link


The winds are stronger. Still heading toward NW Florida.
Given the Cancun observation,I'd put the low further to the NW,thelmores.
Nice few of the banding takeing place...

fff
Cancun,Mex radar..Link
I really don't think this will make past TD#2 status. There are shearing winds in the East Central part of the gulf according to the weather forecast yesterday.
GFS has landfall near Ft. Myers.

Cancun says NNE @ 5 mph
Is this not correct ??

Link
Shear forecast.

No Kris, I'm laughing with gulfscotsman.
That was an hour and a half ago kman.
218. IKE
Posted By: weatherboykris at 11:04 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
GFS has landfall near Ft. Myers.


I think the GFS is going to be wrong. Looks like a landfall further north and west.
219. MTJax
GFS has been dismissed by the HPC several times with this storm. They are focusing on the NAM.
GFS has landfall near Ft. Myers.

Woo Hooo!!! hmm, wonder what i'll wear? :)
I guess it's safe to assume based on the latest language that north Florida will not see rain from the low moving northeast?
222. IKE
Posted By: yesterway at 11:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
I guess it's safe to assume based on the latest language that north Florida will not see rain from the low moving northeast?


It's forecast to move north...yes...north Florida should get rain.
223. MTJax
About rain in NE FL

It's an all out model war/mayhem. Here's what's clear: moisture continues to increase in a band from the Gulf of Mexico south into the Caribbean. So we have the moisture -- that's obvious. Question is where will it go and when & how will an area of low pressure develop/move.
The range in model positioning of the low is from the Eastern Gulf to almost the Bahamas which has huge implications. Here are some links to check out a couple models yourself:
The NAM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_084l.gif
The GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif
These are both from the 8am model run & are valid at 8pm Sat. The NAM shows low pressure in the Eastern Gulf & lots of rain moving up the Peninsula; the GFS shows no low, just a trough from the Caribbean through Cuba to between W. Palm & the Bahamas with the rain concentrated much farther south & east. The 2pm NAM forecast model has shifted a couple of hundred miles southeast (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_slp_078l.gif) but still clearly shows low pressure & more rain over Fl. The differences would be much more rain via the NAM lasting into Sun. while the GFS would be far less rain including a dry Sun. And this is just 2 models...the European, Canadian, UKMET & NOGAPS can also be thrown into the mix. These all show an area of low pressure & are closer to the NAM solution (farther west & north). So there's the forecasting dilemma. How do we try to make heads or tails of it?! Well, we can start by looking at what we know is there now. This would include the obvious large area of moisture & there also seems to be a weak surface low just off the Yucatan Pensinsula. There's also a trough/upper level disturbance diving through Texas which will eventually move into the Gulf Coast & parts of the Gulf of Mexico. The models have initialized/analyzed all this pretty well with though the GFS looks a little "sluggish" (weak) on these features. So taking this into account + a "diving" trough from Texas, I'm leaning toward some kind of compromise or middleground, consensus in other words, which would mean a low moving across Florida this weekend with rain for the First Coast at least Sat. into Sun. morning but the heaviest rains might end up across Central & South Fl. in this scenario UNLESS the low can get farther north. There is some chance this low might become a hybrid of sorts, or subtropical but significant tropical development seems unlikely at this point. Stay tuned! We could also take into account typical model biases which in the case of the GFS in past years has been to move tropical systems to much & too quickly to the right or east. But there has been some tinkering with the model this year so it remains to be seen if the east bias is still there.

Published Wednesday, May 30, 2007 6:25 PM by mburesh
IKE where do you live?
Look how massive the convection is now extending out to...

fff
Posted By: MTJax at 4:06 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

GFS has been dismissed by the HPC several times with this storm. They are focusing on the NAM.


Yeah,I think the NAM is likely going to be right as well.
I haven't seen this much deep convection in that area since Alberto.
Are there warnings up for SW FL coast yet guys? I've already planning my chase and have reserved a room in Naples for Friday night. Sony in zip-lock, beefaroni packed, and car gassed up. Thanks for all your inspiration.
229. IKE
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 11:09 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
IKE where do you live?


Panhandle of Florida...Defuniak Springs...and yes, I'm wishcasting this to move north. Now if it's got 50-60 mph winds..no...someone else can have that. Just want rain.

The HPC seems to think it will move north from what I've read.
New Blog
new blog up
Haha. I'll wishcast w/ ya IKE. I live in FWB and it hasn't rained here in.. Well.. I don't know.
233. IKE
Posted By: MTJax at 11:08 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
About rain in NE FL


MTJax...that's from last night.
234. MTJax
Last night but it still counts. Look at the NAM rain accumulation through sunday:

through sunday
It makes sense that the precip would be spread out over a pretty wide area...this is not going to be a tightly-coiled storm.
236. MahFL
1 to 2 inches of rain is not going to end the drought in Florida though....
hurricane23, (or anyone, I know h23 is near me)

Any esti-guess on winds for Miami? Working on my fence.

tks
Here on Lk Monroe, on the St. John's River in Central & North East Florida, the 3rd highest and the 2nd lowest water levels (stage) were in the same year, 5 months apart.
Historical Crests
(1) 8.50 ft on 10/15/1953
(2) 8.14 ft on 10/11/1960
(3) 7.47 ft on 10/04/2004
(4) 7.32 ft on 10/13/1948
(5) 7.30 ft on 09/28/1945

Low Water Records
(1) -0.4 ft on 04/05/1945
(2) 0.1 ft on 05/29/2004