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Tropical disturbance 90L causing floods in the Virgin Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:36 PM GMT on October 19, 2006

An area of low pressure over the Virgin Islands, just east of Puerto Rico (90L), has gotten better organized this morning. Wind shear over the disturbance has dropped to 20 knots, and is forecast to stay in the 15-25 knot range over the next few days, which may allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:04am EDT revealed a substantial wind shift associated with the low, but no well-defined closed circulation. Top winds from QuikSCAT were in the 25-30 mph range. Unfortunately, the Puerto Rico radar failed Wednesday, and the Martinique radar is too far away to see most of the thunderstorm activity.

Flood warnings have been posted this morning on St. Croix in the Virgin islands, where 4 inches of rain has fallen in four hours. Additional heavy rains are expected today, and 90L will also bring heavy rains and potential flash flooding to the rest of the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico over the next two days.

Visible satellite animations show that the disturbance is not moving much, but it is expected to push slowly northward over the next two days. After that, the NOGAPS and UKMET models predict a slow motion to the west-northwest towards the Bahama Islands. The GFS model prefers a due north track, and the other models (Figure 1) call for a more northeasterly track. By the middle of next week, a trough of low pressure should sweep 90L northeastwards out to sea. The disturbance is too small and under too much wind shear to develop into a tropical depression, in all likelihood.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is showing a weak tropical storm forming in the southern Caribbean Tuesday. None of the other models are showing this, and given the lack of consistency of the NOGAPS's predictions of late, this forecast is not credible.

Most of the models show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week and moving towards Baja. This is a believable forecast.

I'll be back with an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Severe Page now..Link
Thanks Dr. Masters..G morning
Thanks Doc
Anyone know if there are predictions on the New Madras(sp) fault in light of yesterdays quake?
Pretty small quake cajun Link
I tell ya what...I'm in St. Kitts now and it's flooded all over the place. VERY heavy rain, 10-20mph winds, frequent lightning.

I'll post some pics if I can figure out how.

-carib
cb, thanks. Seems like things have been a little more active in the US seismically speaking. Anyone think this is related to the enormous quakes in Sumatra? WOW its getting rough here in Baton Rouge. I sure got the rain I asked for a week ago. Jeez
Not much is expected from 90L for now not much movement is seen on satellite imagery but a general movement towards the north and northeast is a good probability. Adrian
Baton Rouge now..radar..itsa coming our way next Link
Lets hope for the Lake Ponchatrain Split to occur..although I dont think itll happen withLink this one.
Bone dry here across south florida...Not a rain drop in sight.
I guess we are stuck inside for lunch today in Baton Rouge.
amazing tracks... they sure do get loopy at this time of year!!!
beautiful - if hot - here the last couple of days... hope is that by TUES we will have our first legitimate cool-down... *funny* coincidence... one year anniversary of getting socked by Wilma who ushered in LOVELY weather after the destruction...
The latest NCEP long-range climate outlook continues to indicate a typical El Nino pattern for the upcoming winter with a cool and wet southern U.S. and warmer and drier northern states.

Climate Outlook
The Line is coming..Im in the crosshairs..and We see the Tops to my west...the winds are up from the south.Link
Zoomed..in Link
The look of the Area..Link
guess all the wischasters/westcasters have been beaten down...no one is hear screaming about how fast the pressure is dropping, convection is exploding, it's gonna be missed by the trof or anything....
The look west..above Interstate-10....to my south ..I mile.....Link
A few days ago, NOGAPS was predicting something exciting in the S Carib for today; yesterday it was for Saturday; today it's for Tuesday!

Is NOGAPS just walking around with a sign saying, "The end of the world is near!"
The 10-day GFSx..Link
23. IKE
Posted By: rwdobson at 11:20 AM CDT on October 19, 2006.

guess all the wischasters/westcasters have been beaten down...


Their gone til about June 1st, 2007.

Hey Dude,

I noted a couple days ago that I thought that the NOGAPS was probably too fast in it's development and that it would more likely fall into line with the timing of the consensus of NCEP ensemble models to around Tuesday-Thursday of next week. This appears to be happening with the NOGAPS today.

Sorry I copied the wrong link

NOGAPS for Wednesday Morning
Looks like this season will end just about average . I dont expect anymore storms although, 1 or 2 could form technically.
Patrap - you still here or did you lose power? Wanted to check on you to see how you were faring in those storms.
conditions in the Turks and Caicos :
temp: 88 F
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 73 F / 23 C
Wind: 18 mph / 30 km/h from the East
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1009 hPa ( gives me a headache)
Heat Index: 96 F / 35 C
hi all just looking at 90l is it moving south now and could it get to the carribien instead of going north thanks
Im here saddlegait ,it just passed the worst,did..we OKAy!
Heres the radar..only heavy rain now..got some pics too.Link
installed my kodak shareware..and formatting stuff..LOL
is there anyone on?
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Yello...LOL
still looks like 90l is going south anyone know ?
WEll..its a blowing now...we rocking a lil///Link
Thats a bad arrow...Link
Im shutting down power to protect from surges and loss of power..Ba bac after...Link
Wow, more people from Louisiana in here... Baton Rouge no less. I live in Baton Rouge, but I'm staying in Natchitoches right now. These storms have been pretty intense the last few days.
FIRST GFDL RUN takes 90L up to 97kts briefly! That is hard to believe!
ProgressivePulse 90L is currently interacting with an ULL feature in the vicinity of its present location which in my opinion is the cause for the flare-up in thunderstorm activity.The GFDL forcast is unlikely as upper-level winds just do not favor any significant development of this disturbance.This whole area will likely pull away from puerto rico in the coming hours. Adrian
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND INTO WEST TEXAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
DRY AIR COVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 92W IS STARTING TO
POKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF WATERS...THANKS TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST AND IN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W


event canceled
I am aware of that 23! Hence the hard to believe coment! Thanks Though!
Anything, that develops would be pulled out to sea, except in the Gulf of mexico but i dont see how something could develop due to the large trough.
Keep up the great year!!! Looks like we are going to make it storm free in the Florida Keys this year.
"Florida Keys Fishing
looks like its behind the trough. The trough passed it and the low moved in behind the trough enhancing the cloud activity. But it could still get eaten by the high pressure around it just as easily as using the pressure difference to enhance it. The water is still pretty warm.
90L? That thing is still out there???
Who're they?
Well, I see 90L has been resurrected and pointless pics are still being posted...
Say guys --- with the depression ( or just storms) that has moved into s mexico -- is this setting up the same scenerio that occurred earlier this week in SE Tex. Another front is supposed to push down sometime this weekend depending on the speed. Just wondering.
Mo Linkrain..
The 10day GFSx,,..Link
90L is presistant like Issac in pre deppersion
state we all thought 96L was going to die guess
we thought wrong even passed my max wind forcast.
hornfan...No, any rain involved with this front is pushing off-shore Texas into the Gulf and dry air should move in behind rapidly.
36 hour surface.
Thanks Rand
Gee, and this is what I have to look forward to this evening - and have to take little one to cheerleading/tumbling practice at 5:30 - yikes!

Hail to 0.5 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
Mobile Alabama to 20 miles east northeast of Crestview Florida.
92E in the eastern pacific has gotten somewhat better organized over the past couple of hours....


605
ABNT20 KNHC 192104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
oh Patrap...thank you...did not know I could still laugh like that...
Unless the NOGAPS comes to frution, this season is GAME, SET and MATCH.
nothing major..... but appears another circ headed towards PR.........




also appears 90L is fizzling.... again! LOL

Everyone remember what today is? The anniversary of Wilma's explosive deepening to a record low 882 mb. What an insane storm, and thank God we aren't seeing something even remotely similar one year later.
The weekend cometh..soon..I mo day..Neil..Link
Wilma..Peaking..a WHopper..Link
Hornfan, If you are still there GO BIG RED!!!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:08 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
92E in the eastern pacific has gotten somewhat better organized over the past couple of hours....


There's a swirl under that small blob of convection right along the coast ... moving rapidly WNW RGB Loop. Can't really tell what's under the larger area to the south. New TWOEP should be out soon. Will be interesting to see what it has to say.
Thundercloud, Pop ups, no thanks. Clean it up and I might look.
I think the popups are gone I have not gotten any
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU OCT 19 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


However the Probability of Development continues to rise.

image not found
Damn its been raining annoyingly hard for the metro area here in Puerto Rico! The skies looked incredible at 3PM today, they were totally dark and the weird thing is you could see the clouds moving in circles. It was really freaky... I thought it could be the LLC, or even a tornado, but I had never seen that in my life from a system. The winds constantly changed from SW to NE every few minutes. A freaky day indeed...
You are welcome!
hi everyone.Whats going on in the tropics
bye guys TV time!!! Hope you enjoyed the movie :) email me if comments or compliant.
I'll update my blog now.
NOTHING IN THE TROPICS 92E LOOKS LIKE A DEPPRESSION 2 ME AND 90L LOOKS GONE BY SHEAR. REALLY LOOKING FORWARD FOR OUR FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT.
Cyclonebuster, I am not aware of what your tunnels are intended to achieve, but have noted spurious and defamatory comments on their most noble heads. Please alow me to become familiar with your concepts. You may proceed...........
Wonder if anybody remembered this today:

I remembered
So did I.
Terrifying and beautiful.
Wow!, people like us must have some nerve to be around here when nothing is happening!
cyclonebuster, there is no need to be hesitant. I await your dissertation with baited breath, which, May I assure you, kind Sir, is a most disstressing condition .
In both of those pictures, the eye is actually a lot smaller than it appears; the stadium effect causes the top of the eye to be larger than the bottom, this is especially noticable when the eye is very small.
Pottery,

the way you speak sounds like that of Lomov from "The Proposal", I like that.
As I remember it was 2 miles. I wonder what the turning radii of the hurricane hunter planes are?
cyclonebuster, you know why you have your own blog, right? If anybody is interested, they will come over.
Do not alarm yourself, or be disstressed, wiscaster. Something always happens sooner or later, which in this instance could be an event of singular clarity and astounding insightfulness. In the meantime, how do the clouds appear at your vantage point.
Pottery you should teach Drama, that would be a good job for you.
Posted By: hornfan at 8:31 PM GMT on October 19, 2006.

Say guys --- with the depression ( or just storms) that has moved into s mexico -- is this setting up the same scenerio that occurred earlier this week in SE Tex. Another front is supposed to push down sometime this weekend depending on the speed. Just wondering.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SE TX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RETURN NORTH INTO SE TX AS A WARM FRONT. PWS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS SRN HALF OF SE TX BY LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL
TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE SECOND
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (2+ INCH PWS) OFF THE
COAST FOR THIS EVENT. WILL GO 30 POPS BY SAT AFTN...THEN 40-50 POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z
SUNDAY SO EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DRYING EARLY SUNDAY. SHEAR PROFILES DO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE BY SAT AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS POINTED OUT IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SE TX SUN AFTN AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SE TX DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS PAINTS A RATHER OMINOUS SCENARIO WITH VERY DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH ALLOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH INTO SE TX AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE 12Z ECMWF...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE CANADIAN SHOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE. ANOTHER
WILD-CARD WILL BE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW HAVE BLANKETED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
POPS/TEMPS BELOW 12Z MEXMOS GUIDANCE.


He was an hour ago:
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 7:24 PM CDT on October 19, 2006. (hide)
My "TUNNELS" can cure all those problems.

Hopefully, he will see my reply.
Well.... hem?.. the hurricanes structure is not the most symetrical, but it has a flat top and extremely cold cloudtops. The eye appears to be a tightly wound knot that will soon tare apart. The hurricane, in its self is fairly large, but with such a small eye, it is most likely not and immediate threat.
STL, I detect a slight angst in your tone. I will forthwith direct my queries to the relevant site where I trust I may be enlightened. I do however wish you a good evening.
Something involving Wilma is on my blog.
Very strong MJO activity = moderate-strong El Nino (stronger El Ninos cause stronger MJO activity):



If anything is going to form in the Atlantic for the rest of the year, it will do so in the next week or so, since by the time the next MJO cycle occurs, it will be December (30-60 day period).
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 8:37 PM CDT on October 19, 2006. (hide)
Well.... hem?.. the hurricanes structure is not the most symetrical, but it has a flat top and extremely cold cloudtops. The eye appears to be a tightly wound knot that will soon tare apart. The hurricane, in its self is fairly large, but with such a small eye, it is most likely not and immediate threat.

LOL! The date is today, but one year ago... LOL
...WHICH ALLOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH INTO SE TX AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


What the ****! Give me a break!
I like your blog about ERCs 1900. Maybe you could start a second one with some of the other "interesting hurricane facts" you have gathered.
When this is all said and done, My area will be part of the Gulf of Mexico.

I am predicting that the El Nino will become a very strong one, and last well into '07, hampering tropical activity early in next year's Hurricane Season. Of course, I also am an ametuer that is predicting things with his PC and prior knowlege only...
Which direction does the MJO move STL? is the Eastern Pacific next?
STL, please excuse my lack of insight into these matters, but you have lost me with that last graphic. Could you explain???
Posted By: LowerCal at 8:46 PM CDT on October 19, 2006.

I like your blog about ERCs 1900. Maybe you could start a second one with some of the other "interesting hurricane facts" you have gathered.


Thanks! I was thinking about starting a new blog a few days ago, but decided to keep the same blog until I find out more information. Stop by sometime and leave comments, constructive critisism, suggestions, questions, or just chill.
MJO activity moves from west to east with a period of 30-60 days; it results in enhanced (blue areas) or suppressed (red areas) convection. This also has significant effects on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic. Here is more information on the MJO.
Thanks 1900, I will.
If somebody wants to see an interesting poem about hurricanes, (not by me), please feel free to browse my blog!
Hey Michael, that link you posted showed a picture of the polar jetstream going right over my house!
.Peace..
Thank you STL. In my own way I was aware of some of that, but you have helped fill in some blanks. As I noted previously, to Mr. Wishcaster, there is always a golden plum of knowledge to be plucked from this blog. May the clouds swirl merrily about you esteemed head........
Thanks, but no thanks Patrap. I really don't feel like watching that now...

)`:
Has anyone checked out the WRF lately?

Link
The WRF looks interesting; the GFDL also no longer dissipates 90L.
The needs here are still very great.If you would like to help a worthy Local Group I support,theres a link on my Blog..to the Group..Where the results of giving..are immediate..Thanks for being here..
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200203
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HISPANIOLA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

90L GFDL forecast:

Patrap, it is people like your good self that keep things in perspective and man the pumps when needed, that are an inspiration to others. The task is always daunting and sometimes the reward is not obvious. Keep strong. For info. only, a group of American oil wives, along with your Embassy here, held a drive to raise funds just after the event. It was a successfuf venture, but came so soon after the complete devastation of Ivan in Grenada that most Trinidad people had frankly given what they could to their close neighbour.
We thank you..for those Kind words.The good people of Trinidad..are Very Generous.And we stand with you..If ever the need arises.


Models for 90L.
Oh...Sorry, that was kind of big...

Never fear, I will modify it to make it smaller!
The GFDL also has 92E hitting Mazatlan as a Cat 1.
Michealstl the GFS is forcasting a drop in windshear briefly around this system but even if something were to get going i dont see being a threat to the U.S. mainland.
There! That's better. I'm getting pretty good at this image stuff!
If it is something to watch and it poses little to no threat to land, then I am happy.

: ) (happy!)
You've stood with us in the past, my friend. with luck we will not have to call on you again.......
I there a simple way to post pics? I need to learn how to do this so I can get going on my pre-historic hurricanes blog entry.
Posting images:



Add width=640 after the last quote and greater-than sign for larger images.

Wishcasterboy, here is the simple way to post images:

(img src="paste URL here")

or

(img src="paste URL here" width=640)

( is a less-than sign (shift+comma key)
) is a greater-than sign (shift+period key)
width=640 makes the images as wide as the blog's normal width (omit if you are not bothered by large images, but only in your own blog).
139. BtnTx
It's going to be a wet and soggy fall and winter in SE TX this year just like 2004 when it snowed on Christmas
Its a LinkBig Country...
Posted By: BtnTx at 9:47 PM CDT on October 19, 2006.

It's going to be a wet and soggy fall and winter in SE TX this year just like 2004 when it snowed on Christmas


For some reason, I think you will be right...We had a lot of storms that year. Not huge ones like the one on Tuesday, but just soo many of them.
N/a..LOL
Ha ha! Beat ya to it MichealSTL!
More,Link Like a Hurricane
HERE I AM! ROCK ME LIKE A HURRICKAENE!
nite all, I'm gone...........
See ya later pottery!
Think I'm out for the knight too. See Y'all Later!
Hurricane Trivia

Did an Eastern Pacific storm ever directly affect Louisiana in October?

Yes, as a hurricane!

1923 Atlantic hurricane season

image not found
night pottery, night 1900
Weird season... five storms in October and only two during the rest of the season.
Ya, wonder how much data is available to describe the factors responsible.
Hey 1900 u into cars?
I am not sure anybody noticed but the latest NAM model is showing the trough over the eastern Caribbean will moving westward into the NW Caribbean on Monday. Still a little fast, but it is starting to verify what NOGAPS has been indicating - the potential for inctreased tropical activity in that area for early next week.

NAM Forecast for Monday Morning
156. SMU88
I was wandering what any of you think about S Florida being in the free and clear for the rest of the year? I know that this is normally the time that we have the lows breaking off and becoming something in the caribbean.
SLINKY until there is more model support iam really not putting to much stock on that happening.
SLINKY, thanks for the heads up.
Hurricane -

I agree with you, but this is the first confirmation through a second model.
160. BtnTx
Thanks to Patrap, not only am I a Weather Underground addict but a YouTube(awesome)addict as well! Keep the links comind Patrap!
Ship Of Fools...Link
Dont blame it on me..LOL!
163. BtnTx
YouTube is just too cool and it is raining on the Cardinals Mets game (weather related subject matter)
heres something for the 7th inning stretchLink
If the GFS is correct shear will be dropping across the western caribbean in the next couple of days. Here is the 18z GFS 850-200mbI still dont see anything happening down there.One of the most things in my opinion 2006 has shown is that it takes alot more than warm water, convection, and low shear for a tropical cyclone formation to occur.Last year we saw near perfect atmospheric conditions for development all season long and it goes to show you that just because were are in a active period of hurricane activity it doesn't mean every season will be super active.What occured last year was an event that happens once every 50 years. Adrian
166. BtnTx
That's a rerun Patrap on the 7th inning stretch - but still good for those that might have missed it. It's a chilly 59F here in Baytown.
Can smell the Vinyl Chloride from here..LOL
Isn't great btntx
Posted By: SMU88 at 8:08 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
... any of you ...

Since you asked, LOL, if I still lived in SE Fla I wouldn't be puttin' the shutters in storage just yet.

26C SSTs from Cape Hatteras to Bermuda to north of the Cape Verdes. 29C SST in the entire Caribbean. Shear relaxes for a few days ...
Baytown...CAtcrackers and Furnaces for sure..Link
171. BtnTx
hornfan What?
LOWER CAL - wHERE YOU LIVE IN SW FL
I AM IN Punta Gorda
173. BtnTx
Patrap - Catrackers and Furnaces - my bread and butter!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:28 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
...it takes alot more than warm water, convection, and low shear for a tropical cyclone formation to occur...


OK, rotation ... anything else?
Btntx - The cooll weather is great. I actually opened the windows today and just let the air come in. no ac
176. BtnTx
Not much to smell as well 99% of the time
bases loaded and Beltran at the bat 2 out bottom of the ninth
JUSTCOASTING I live in Southern California but I lived in SE Fla for many years (mostly Ft. Lauderdale) and I still have many loved ones in Broward and Dade counties.
179. SMU88
thanks lowercal
Tigers vs Cards in the world series
I was there yesterday .Boy Wilma sure left a lot of blue tarps there still today
If ya going to drive with the Models..ya better have the keys...Link
hurricane23, sorry, water vapor too. What else have I left out?
That weird season was long enough ago that no open-ocean storms would be detected. Lots of August/September storms are Cape Verdes.
JUSTCOASTING I had no idea! My relatives have been very fortunate!
whats alternative text?
ForecasterColby, thanks! Not a day goes by on WU I don't learn something. I was coming up with all sorts of wierd ideas to explain that, LOL!
This is how I feel right now.... Link
"alternative text" is what is shown when the image is not found at the URL you entered. I put in "image not found", LOL, and I preview before I post.
Posted By: Patrap at 8:46 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
If ya going to drive with the Models..ya better have the keys...Link


Good link Patrap. Did you catch the Hurricane Trivia I posted earlier?
Does it want the link to this website?
How can this be so easy and hard at the same time!?
I don't bother with alternative text unless I am posting an image in my blog entry; all that is really required is the URL:

(img src="put URL here")
(img src="put URL here" width=640)
(img src="put URL here" alt="description")
(img src="put URL here" width=640 alt="description)

It is much easier to type in any of the above than use the image button (once you remember the code). Also, when you supply the width only, it automatically resizes the height as well, so you don't have to calculate a scaling factor for it.
Alright, now I'm sorry Wishcasterboy. I thought you were going to use that info for paleohurricanes. :( I was looking forward to that.
OK,

One of the keys (GFS) has something interesting in the lower Caribbean for Monday morning too.

GFS for Monday Morning
Yes Lowercal..saw that one for sure..
Forgot the link

Link
Do I put a space between the URL and width?
STL prefers not to use the "evil" Image button. I use it an delete "height=###" from the generated text ... whatever is easiest for you.
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 9:12 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
I am and will, just have to get past that caveman feeling I get when I touch the keyboard!


Understood.
Were do you find the discription?
decription of what?
I just use whatever suits the image; if you look in my blog, you will see that the text you see when you put the mouse over an image describes the image (alternative text is not necessary; I usually don't bother to use it otherwise). For example, the first two images will show "Storm total precipitation" and "Storm total precipitation (zoomed in)".
I don't know, the description of the image?
SLINKY I see it also puts a ?depression off of Mexico. Several models agree on a TC off Mexico just not how strong and where.
ah, alternative text, ya don't use that.
Here is an example:

you can always write text underneath the image like Jeff Master does in his blog.
It can be better to use alternative text if you have several small images nect to each other and want to have a description of each, like this:

http://www.cbsnews.com/images/2006/09/18/image05515bb1-9f5b-4907-96e4-633a0896d7c2.jpg width=640
Well that was wrong.
I'm just trying to get a basic image up here.
Ya, I don't get that mouseover description on my (offbeat) setup.
Oh? What browser do you use?
comcast
Was that formula I used right?
Firefox doesn't allow some alternative codes to appear.

unless the decription is Title="text here"
I use Firefox 1.5.0.7 running on MEPIS Linux. I get mouse over description on other items but not those two "Total Precip" images.
oh really.. mine don't.
oh wait I don't use Linux
Try it now; I changed alt to title (works the same way for me) in both posts.
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 9:35 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
Firefox doesn't allow some alternative codes to appear.

unless the decription is Title="text here"


Ahh, and now I've learned another valuable thing. Thanks HadesGodWyvern.

And why that handle if you don't mind me asking?
Yahoo STL! They show up now!
HGW by other items I meant other than blog/comment images.
oh my username is something I seen on tv, haha
Link Now this is a band who knows how to play there intstruments!
test

broken green plusbroken image
looks like you got the handle of it now
I just changed all the images in my blog so that they use title instead of alt, so it should work now (also, it is probably better to use title instead whenever you wnat to show a description because some browsers don't read alt or oly show it when an image is missing).

Test - broken image using altTest - broken image using alt and title

Ah... using title does not make it show alternative text; you need to use both alt and title if you want both and insure that it will show a pop-up description.
hmm title should work for both..
Thanks STL. This has been a most productive evening, LOL.
the text broken line in that post just came up as text instead of an red X box like IE did.
I've Googled "HadesGodWyvern" with "TV" and "television" and all I get is Wunder Blog stuff. At least give me the network, LOL.
wehttp://ather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif length=640
STL that's all I got was text, "Test - broken image using altTest - broken image using alt and title".
dang
separate the name
Well I'll wrestle with this tomarrow, I'm off to dream land!
Title="The Green Plus" alt="broken image" works for me. (I do need the alt for a broken image.) See my previous test.
I believe you all are at least two hours later than me. 'Night all.
9ol is getiing some spunk again
Morning all!
Morning everyone. Lucky to be alive and in America.
Amen to that Leftovers.
What do you think Nash a bad yr is coming up in Tahiti? Or even closer to home winter storms in So. Cal with mud slides? I love el nino. On a side note you watch that guy from Illonois he is going to be our nxt president. He is a Harvard grad, from a poor family and even more important he was one of the few that voted against involvement in Iraq. Hope you all have a nice day.
Well, I make it a rule to never mix politics with weather, so no comment on that.

As far as El Nino, it should be weak to moderate meaning a wetter winter for the south. Probably won't be strong enough to really put a clamp down on tropical activity next year as these cycles typically last no more than six months.

Expect a more active hurricane season next year.
Posted By: nash28 at 11:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2006.

Well, I make it a rule to never mix politics with weather, so no comment on that.

As far as El Nino, it should be weak to moderate meaning a wetter winter for the south. Probably won't be strong enough to really put a clamp down on tropical activity next year as these cycles typically last no more than six months.

Expect a more active hurricane season next year.


I agree with you 100% its most likley that the La Nina will build in around May
Finally, SE Texas should start to dry out and have a great looking day. Then on Saturday a chance of more rain as the front backs up again. But next week a major chance of more bad rain....see below:

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NETX WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST GIVING SETX A
PLEASANT DAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE.
STATIONARY
FRONT WELL SOUTHEAST OF BRO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SETX SATURDAY MORNING 12-15Z
BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
DROPPING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO
SWING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN (PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2" COAST) AND
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH...
THE REGION DRIES OUT
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE STRONG CYCLOGENISIS OCCURS OVER COLORADO AND
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH
DEVELOPS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS
PATTERN ACTUALLY COMES TO PASS THEN PERHAPS SETX COULD BE IN FOR A
BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS WED/THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK.

Morning Randrewl, couldn't sleep. Cyclogenisis, now theres a word i like. have to look that up. Altho it sounds like "in the beginning" so on and so forth.
Cyclogenesis:

Process of initiation or intensification of a cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere; the opposite to cyclolysis.
Checking the last run of the NOGAPS, it looks like it backed off the TS formation.
Thank you!
Nash, are you saying that El Nino affects last approx. 6 months? I don't think that statement is correct. This present El Nino event started around 5 months ago and is predicted to last through May, which is as far out as the models go. It may last longer and it's my conclusion that next year will be an average year to below average year in relation to tropical system development.
f


looks like we have the 3 bears this morning...... papa bear, mama bear, and baby bear! LOL
258. IKE
And ALL of the bears will be driven into the north Atlantic by a strong trough moving off of the east coast by Monday.

Adious 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Lows in the low 40's along the northern GOM ends the season.
anybody else notice that the gfdl is forecasting at least a cat 2 hurricane on 90L!

The suppressed Atlantic hurricane season featured 7 named storms (Figure 1), with a record low of one system forming during August-September and a tied record low of 3 systems forming during August-October. The eastern North Pacific season featured a near-average of 17 named storms, 9 of which became hurricanes and 7 of which became major hurricanes (Figure 2). Some of the prominent large-scale atmospheric conditions contributing to this suppressed 1997 North Atlantic season and to the comparatively active 1997 eastern North Pacific season are described in this Special Climate Summary. These conditions are contrasted with those accompanying the very active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the inactive 1995 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity over the eastern North Pacific during 1997 compared to the previous two years was partly related to an expanded area of low vertical wind shear (the change in winds with height), in response to weaker-than-normal upper-level easterly flow throughout the region. Another contributing factor was abnormally warm ocean waters (1 - 2 C above normal) across the subtropical eastern North Pacific (Figure 3, bottom ), in association with the occurrence of very strong El Nio conditions [A detailed analysis of the current major El Nio, its impacts and outlooks can be found in the Climate Prediction Center's Special Climate Summary #97/3).

Here is the relationship for the Atlantic Hurricane season of 97 and 98 which was also one of the stronger El Nino events recorded. You can find this in it's entirety and more at the following link
Link
DOH, think that gfdl on 90L is yesterdays! LOL

blog up