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Tropical development off the coast of Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2005

Two disturbances to watch off of the coast of Florida
The most serious threat in the tropics today is a large area of disturbed weather extending from Miami eastward over the Bahama Islands. Shear values are still probably a little too high--about 10-15 knots--to permit a tropical depression to form in this region today. However, the shear is rapidly decreasing, having fallen 10 knots in the past 24 hours, and is forecast to be 5-10 knots tomorrow. At this level, a tropical depression could form Monday or Tuesday. Several computer models, including the UKMET and NOGAPS, forecast that a strong tropical storm will form here and move slowly northward, threatening the Carolinas late in the week. The GFS model does not develop the system.

A second disturbance with a well-defined circulation visible on both visible satellite images and QuikSCAT data is located about 600 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. A concentrated area of deep convection has developed on the south side of the circulation center, and continues to build. Shear values in the region have dropped to 5-10 knots and continue to drop, and the conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form by tomorrow. The system is expected to move north and may threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1.Forecast track of tropical low 600 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL.

The Thursday GFS forecast was remarkably accurate--it correctly predicted tropical development in both of these areas, four days in advance!

African tropical waves
The tropical wave we've been watching cross the Atlantic for the past week is still out there, at 10N 53W, 500 miles east of the islands. This system is still too far south to develop significantly, but steering currents should start to push the system just far enough north for it to avoid being destroyed by passage over South America. We will continue to watch this system as it moves westward at 15 mph.

Hurricane Maria
Oh yes, there is a hurricane out there! Maria has a nice looking eye starting to develop, and should be a pretty sight on satellite images the next few days as she heads northward and then northeastward out to sea. Maria should make it to Category 2 and possibly Category 3 status before cold water and wind shear three days from now start taking their toll.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

do you think any storm worries for Miami or will this be a NC/SC event. I know we are going to get some rain, but do any models show this moving inland over SE Florida?

Dr. Masters,

Is it possible that the possible tropical storm will move nw into south carolina? I have been closely monitoring the possibility.
Dr Master

Any thoughts on the wave just coming off the African coast today?
the models seem to take this inland or hugging the shore all the way from SE FL to SC/NC and then out to sea. At least the the UKMET and NOGAPS.- at least to my untrained eye... :-)
Could this possibly become a weak cat 1 hurricane? the water temps off SC are 87 degrees. I don't think it could strengthen anymore due to the proximity to land.
the local news here said last night that the disturbance could possibly develop to a depression, and that a front or something could push it over Florida. Just rain I think...already getting that now actually.
Could the models be underestimating the strength of the ridge to the north?
It looks like its going to develop soon. Shear is dropping and sst's are high. SC watch out.
weatherwatcher

do you have a link to the sheer map?
shear
latest 12Z GFS in....Link..Still have weak system hugging coast of Florida and the Carolinas..If this system stays close to coast it may only be a weak tropical storm , but just a little deviation off the coast could produce a stronger system, something to watch.
Shear map for anyone interested...Link..notice shear values 5 to 10 near system, where yesterday we had close to 20.
Nice that someone else things Maria will strengthen beyond category 1. That water is still really warm.

If she doesn't, she will be only third in the last 18 hurricanes, going back to September 2003, not to strengthen beyond category 1. If you look where those others became hurricanes, they had no chance to strengthen. Gaston became a hurricane just before landfall, Lisa became a hurricane north of 40 degrees north latitude, and well east.
The ridge to the north coupled with the elongated trough by se fla should get something spinning for sure. Shear still too high along coastal Carolina's. In fact the shear tendencay has been increasing for 24hrs (up to 20kts). I think best track is out to see if something does develop. But the longer this stalled trough hangs out the longer the shear has to weaken.
By the way,I've been reading this blog for about a month now. Some interesting viewpoints and people to say the least!
Storms are starting to boil pretty good off the SE Florida coast. I noticed some turning on Miami long range radar. Looks to me that things are starting to get going. Anyone else have thoughts on this?
check out the discussion out of Miami NWS.

They now expect tropical development off the SE Florida Coast during the next 48 hours unsure which way it will go at this time
Matilda, can you give me the link please.
I just checked out the discussion as well as other offices around Florida and they tend to agree on development of the low with it paralleling the Florida east coast. Just checked hourly obvservations from SE Florida and they have NE winds with pressures falling through 1012MB so something is cooking.
maybe this will work
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/text.php?sid=AT&pil=TWO&version=0
It appears to me that cyclogenesis is taking place east of West Palm just north of Grand Bahama. Can I get a link from someone with Bahamas obs?
Weatherwatcher.....I'm not sure if you saw my post in the last blog. Just in case, in response to my post about predictions of a cat5 storm coming down my driveway you had said you only made a comment about regeneration of TD11 on Aug. 18. The prediction post of yours that I was referring to was this one:
.
.



Posted By: Weatherwatcher007 at 3:32 AM GMT on August 25, 2005.
I have to go but think about this. I just looked at the GDFL model and it has Katrina over south florida and hitting as a cat 4 hurricane near cat 5. Now before you rip me to shreads I have to say as a lawyer there is no evidence that makes that impossible. If you look at Steves blog you will see that the water depth is deep enough to support this. Dr. Masters said that there is a 57 percent chance of this happening. There is a new burst of deep convection around the core suggesting rapid development. The NHC said that rapid intensification by the GDFL is not impossible and that the GDFL has been the most reliable so far. Also, the dry air is gone, the convection is organized and there is already an eye. I don't know but this may be (I hate it with a passion but I have to say it)another Andrew situation. My other family is down there and I have told them to get out of town, I just can't see why this can't happen. 15 years ago today, a hurricane of catastrophic proportions hit south florida. It started out as a weak depression and traversed the atlantic as a weak storm. When it was all said and done it was a cat 5 and THE most costly storm ever. 15 years later after that monster, the exact same area is under attack once again. I'm sorry to say but we MAY be on the eve of another Andrew situation (God forbid) I will be praying for everyone is Florida.
Goodnight

Go to National weather service miami, click on fort lauderdale and go into the forcast discussion and you'll find the information
I finally masterd copy and paste. Pathetic, huh.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=MFLAFDMFL&version=0

oh I am a C&P'ing fool!
FYI-The Key West AFD is much more thorough.
this?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/productview.php?pil=EYWAFDEYW
Yes. It explains the synoptic environment much better. Also the MLB AFD will be out soon. It seems the consesus is that a depression/surface low will strengthen with time but the models are all over the place. So the biggest question is when and where?
Try this link for all Florida data consolidated on one site. This is the best site I have found for this.Link
yes, that's pretty nifty. But how do I make the forecast discussion button take me to jax, and not melbourne?
duh, nevermind, it goes thru all of'm. Sorry. Yes I'm computer illiterate. sorry ya'll.
You can't. You just have to scroll down and find it. They are arranged by time of release. You can also replace the "fl" in the address bar and replace it with any 2 letter state id and get the same info. I've been using IWIN for 10 years. BTW MLB is out.
The site lists the newest updated discussions on top. Just scroll down to find Jax if it has been posted. Usually Jax puts out their afternoon discussion approx. 3:30 p.m.
Well said TVwxman!
Jax is out Aquak.
I find it interesting that the NHC didn't mention the low as a "special feature" in their 2pm discussion. I guess it's too early to tell, and any formation of a depression would be slow and gradual.
Confidence continues to build with regard to low development off Florida but movement confidence is a big fat zero.
good morning every one

it appears that exact location and timming will determine any affect the system that forms in bahamas will have on the us. steering currents will be somwhwat weak for a couple of days befor the next shortwave pushes the system n than northe east our to sea.
thwe wave off of africa will need to be watched but alot of waves comming off of africa have struggled until they get past 40-50w
Agree. Just rainy and windy for us in So Fla. for the next couple of days. Although I love it, takes the heat away we've had all summer.
Morning.. Lefty? Are you posting from Hawaii? Anyway, do you have a theory or hard evidence on why 40-50W is the unofficial demarcation line for development this year?
So many of these waves have looked so promising but if it isn't the dust, or the convection going to the ITCZ, and random anticyclones in the Atlantic it's something else. It really does illustrate how little we understand about tc genesis.
I think it will move across florida simple as that......
no not in hawaii but i stay up all night looking at models, sta imgs , always waiting for that next disscussion from the nhc lol, i am eastern time and while i have been awake forsome time just got out of bed.
The GFS

Dr. Masters, or anyone else that wants to comment... :-)

How has the GFS handled this year in general? It sounds like it's done phenomenal... like last year?
i doubt it will move accross florida. all models tend to agree that what ever forms willmove nw or north for a couple of days befor the next shortwave pushes her out to sea so i doubt a move accros florida , but i will be the first to tell you all models are usesless befor a system actually forms and you have an actaully llc to track so the models could all change after the formation.
gfs has done good with some systems, atleast in formation, but her tracking of storms as been pretty weak
CosmicEvents are you there?
I don't think it will move north I believe it will drift east in response to a strengthening ridge to it's north if something does develop......
Drift west I mean....
Moving across Fl? What would lead you to say that so assuredely? I cannot find any indication for that. It's not even a system yet so the models really can't initialize yet. And even if one were to form all indicators point to a north/nwest track.
Yes....I am here.
Looking at 3:00 obs for South Florida, pressures are continuing to fall and winds are picking up a little.
while the steering currents will be weak they will not be 0. the currents should have a wnw or nw component so while she might drift west it will have a northern component and would not have enough time to cross florida befor she is pushed n than ne
You can send e-mails through weather underground if you'd like.
CosmicEvents,

I mixed everything up! I'm sorry If I alarmed you. I do remember that comment and on my personal blog I hinted at the possible redevelopment of td 10. Yeah I admit I said what you posted but hear me out. I was only looking at the POSSIBILITY of Katrina turning into a cat 4 or 5. The probability of this was ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE due to its proximity to land. I was not trying to alarm anyone and I screwed up because I spoke off the top of my head. I am a humble little lawyer and I will admit when I am wrong. NO Katrina did not become a cat 4 or 5 before it hit FL but it DID become one after it crossed Florida. I admit that that blog was inaccurate in predicting the strength at FL landfall but it was not completly out of the relm of possibility. Sorry if I scared you.
I guess an easterly track wouldn't be that out of the question. Weak steering currents etc. In fact the latest ETA suggests that. But again, there really isn't any point about guessing a track until the models actually establish a system.
Just back from beach here in St. Augustine...Surf beginning to pick up about 2 to 4 ft., great surfing weather today as winds not as strong yet so its not too choppy. NE wind about 15 to 20mph, water temp at 82. other then that a real nice day here. Should be interesting on movement of system, anybodys guess right now..but it will be slow.
Did I explain myself to your likeing CosmicEvents?
Oh yeah, it will be slow moving but from everyones observations, it could be developing right now.
Interesting water temp weatherguy.
yeah just off the coast at the St Aug buoy it is 85. And off of St. Simons it is 86, so of course the waters are plenty warm.
WG03,

Where do you think it will go?
Check out the latest visible satellite of Florida.
It appears to me that this system is organizing somewhat.
Any thoughts?
It looks as though it is. I gotta go, I will be back later.
Any idea when the floater satellite will be positioned over this developing system?
i see alittle spin east of Palm beach, but this could be one of a few that are trying to develop near the bahamas, not sure which is gonna be the main one yet..007 i am still liking the slow treck up along the coast, whether it stays off shore a bit or moves inland will determine if it even develops at all.
This post comes from the nws webste from under the forecast discussion from FL.

12Z GFS STILL WANTS TO PULL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE 06Z
DGEX PUSHES THE WEAK LOW INTO THE NERN GOMEX THEN BACK ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE INTO THE WEEK AND THRU THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z NAM/ETA TAKES THE LOW WESTWARD ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GOMEX. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE
ACTUAL LOW DEVELOPS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK.
Yep willdd its like a roll of the dice..lol..Who really knows at this point. First we need something to develop, then maybe we get a better idea. Stay tuned..lol..
you're right weatherguy I so want a landfalling system here in NC I'm only 100 miles from the coast (Wilmington) and I could study the system and observe it as it makes landfall.
Link
It is starting to rotate on this radar loop
Weatherwatcher...yes you did. Thank you.
Check your e-mail.
I looked at the link, hook-- now where would you put the center, if you had to guess? by the "a" of beach, in WPB,..or the "or" of Fort pierce?
sdorry i don't see any evidence of rotation in the radar loop
now i also see an incerease in the convection located and would not be supprised if there is a broad area of circulation. dvelopment should be slow but i predict we could have a depression in that area in 48 hrs. the area to its east has not changed much today but wouldnot be suprised if a td was forming there at the moment. we will have to watch both areas very closely
The cops just killed 5 or 6 out of 8 armed gunmen in NO.
RIGHT ON
The wind has picked up here in the last hour. Must be a good pressure gradient developing.
hello all did u guys miss me
yeah ej some rain headed our way from off the Atlantic..Did you read Jax discussion? 30+ gusts by tomorrow..of course nothing we cant handle..lol..
Hey weatherguy, did you observe any erosion at the beach?
I live just off the westside of the St. John's river so the NE winds forecast will be magnified by the width of the river.
Nah, but it was low tide. Didnt look too bad yet but this should be one of those that gradually increaes, especially if it last for three to four days. The NWS is expecting 7 to 8ft. breakers by Tues., that when the erosion starts to occur. they still havent finished putting the sand back on the beach here in St. Aug from last year. they are still working on it.
Check this out from the 5:30 outlook... Surface observations and satellite imagery suggest that a broad
surface low pressure system could be developing just off the
southeastern coast of Florida and over the northwestern Bahamas.
The associated shower activity has become a little more
concentrated today... and upper-level winds are somewhat favorable
for additional and gradual development. It is possible that this
nearly stationary system could develop into a tropical depression
during the next day or so.
.
there we go..lol...It does seem pretty broad right now, not sure where a center will actually form, hard to see that currently from radar or sat. should be interesting ej.
18Z GFS coming in right now..will get it to ya shortly.
For what it's worth(I'm just a hobbyist here), I'm at Stuart, FL, where Frances and Jeanne landfalls were last year, and the barometer has been constant all day. Winds were up some this morning for a bit, but are less than 12 knots everywhere in the area now. We had an inch of rain this morning and overcast skies since.

From time to time I see someone expressing a wish to have a storm landfall where they are. I can only guess such people either have never been through a storm, or they own nothing and have no one nearby whose welfare they might worry about. Even from that perspective, such a wish is indescribably selfish. It is not just themselves they are wishing the storm on. If only wishes had the power to move these things!
FLtropix- First of all wishing does no good. If it did Katrina would have gone to the panhandle or Texas. Next I do no think it is as much wishing that it comes to them, but more wanting to see it if it does make landfall. Extreme weather has always attracted a certain type of person and if they get the chance they do want to see it. They do not wish harm on anyone or anyones things. Unfortunatley those things do happen though.
in the area forecast discussions from mhx and ilm NC nws offices they both state in the long term discussion that they belive whatever develops in the bahamas will move west accross FL. they also say the NHC and HPC, are leaning towars that solution as well.. however most modles bring any system that develops up the southeast coast or at least take it east out to sea.. does antbody have any idea why they all seem to think it will go west and the models seem to think it will go east or north.
yeah i dont want it here, i had to go through that stuff last year..no power for a week, lost money at my business, etc...but since i live on the coast of Florida i need to be aware of what is going on..plus i am a crazy meterologist..lol..
89. IKE
From FlTropixWatcher..."From time to time I see someone expressing a wish to have a storm landfall where they are"....

You should have been around here when Dennis was moving in. I couldn't believe the number of posts expressing a wish to have it hit them.

I agree with what you said...why anyone would want a Dennis or Katrina in their backyard is beyond belief.
here is first three days of latest 18Z GFS...Link..slowly moving disturbance along Floirda coast then Carolinas, although still keeps it weak.
No luck with the link weatherguy. Is it there?
Hey low i think right now we just look at the models as kind of a guide. Hard to say where it is going until it actually develops. If high pressure stays strong to the north of the region it could go west, but right now too early to tell.
if LEFTY is here could you comment on my last post
Thanks for the link 03. Do you think the models are underestimating intesnity due to the much warmer waters? It seems like they did at first for Katrina.
yeah it should work here you go...Link
thanks weatherguy, just seems a little strang to see such a split with the forecasters and the modles
I got it to work. Thanks.
Now Fox News says the cops killed contractors fixing the canal, not gunmen. Geez
Not too strange though,sometimes they have to disagree with the models.
could be junkie, or maybe proximity to land as well..GFS usually does this in the beginning, so i take it with a grain of salt. But if it stays close to land it would not develop obviously.
Well gfs did the same with katrina for a while,it showed it scurting the florida coast as a weak storm.
The controlling factor in steering the system off of Florida is the high correct? It will move around the edge of it yes? With Katrina the gfs overestimated the speed and strength of the trof that would weaken the ridge and turn Katrina n sooner correct?
Should be an interesting couple of days coming up.
I think what tends to happen when we get strong high pressure to our north and we get our noreaster conditions here. Is that we get an inverted trough to form off the coast of Florida, usually increasing our coastal showers. i think the GFS may be following this trough right up the coast with this devlopment.
I believe same when it was supposed to curve back towards the panhandle,but models often overdue troughs when the head that far south.
you can see it bend the storm right up the coast and into the Carolinas. I think this is why some forecasters are going wiht the west movement as well because this may not occur and then that high may move it westward.
Again speculation right now. We will first see if we get something to develop, then the models can do there thing..lol..
Same happened with katrina and this may give MORE heavy tropical squalls to florida if it develops into anything.
Sorry but Fox News must be melting down Now it's the cops killed a thug shooting at the contractors
Not saying this will become anything big but there is potential,remember the 175mph 902 mb,and the most destructive hurricane in the U.S. occured from a nearly stationary low pressure trough.Just saying that it is always best to watch all of these sytems because forecasting intensity is still very poor.
And a similar area where this one is located,the storm was disappointing here tampa.All the rain and wind was on the south side untill it reached category 3,we only had about 2or 3squalls come through only about a brief inch or so of rain.
Also shear just to the north still marginal..Around 20....Link..You can see on satelite the SW shear blowing the clouds north of development.
the ridge to itsnorth will be retrograding aa it moves south. this is why the steering currents will be weak.
So where does it goe Lefty? Best Geuss?
The system will move WNW then NW, into the Central Florida Peninsula.
Won't make that NW while still in water?
It will barely move for about 48 hours, then drift to the WNW towards the Coast of Florida, then turn NW as it reaches the Coast.
Did you guys check out that high res photo of Katrina's eye and CDO on Steve Gregory's blog? What a sight!!!
The models have come out from the TPC on the area East of FLorida Link
Hey 79,Do you have any idea as to strength?
strength is really tough to forecast. The ships model brings it to 60kt in 72 hours. That all depends on time over land, and decreasing shear. If the system moves too far North, it will be ripped apart by high shear at 30N. The models are all over the place with direction. One takes it Northeast, one takes it North, another takes it NW across Florida.
Yeah the early models have a common thread of a northward component of movement.. not west.
The GFS now develops the system on the new run. It takes the system to the Coast near Vero Beach in 48 hour, takes it near Orlando and then NNW, then recurves it into the Atlantic and towards North Carolina's Cape
48 hours would not be alot of time for the early stages of a storm to really organize.
The ridge to the North of the system is fairly deep (500 MB to the surface) It will be interesting to see how it does affect the system once the system gets a little bit of depth to it.
Another variable would be where a LLC would eventually develop.
79, Do you see evidence of a LLC forming? If so, where?
There is no evidence of an LLC right now, but the overall rotation is getting a bit better. There would need to be some more persistent thnderstorm activity near my most favorable pick for an LLC to form, before the LLC will actually form. The area that is roughly 90 to 100 miles East of Homestead seems suspect. Link There is no movement to this system
Good link 79. I see your point.
Hi ya'll. Sorry to interrupt, but I know I can count on somebody to get me some truth to this matter. Heard a rumor (well I'm hoping it's a rumor) about deisol fuel. Heard that the Snyder trucks, big semi's that deliver food to Winn Dixies and Walmarts in the north/central florida area, were parked along I-95 up in Georgia, apparently due to lack of diesol fuel to make it to Florida. Supposedly this info was on an Orlando news station. I can't verify anything. Any info on this matter--please?
I know this is the wrong blog for this, but I know ya'll are on top of the news as well.(have posted this in katrinablog as well) thank you
dunno aquak, I know that there are stations with diesel here in Central Florida. I also know that more gas should arrive shortly. (The govt. wont allow a gas shortage under the Bush administration) Sorry, I will stop the politics.
hi
what is going on off the coast of FL do we have a TD15 yet?

david
Hey hurr79 whats going on? Again as always thanks for the info. yeah gas here in Florida has been great all weekend and my gas has not risen since Friday, thankfully. I agree 79, that does look like that might be the beginnings of center, but who knows where it might end up, i thought earlier it was north of there.
hi all!
hey 79, that area east of Homestead only fired up in last couple of hours. Most persistent all day was up off WPB.
Been watching radar trying to plan my outings so as to not get seriously wet, or my friend who is sick w/cold. ::G::
ok we have already had td15 now known as hurricane maria.

i must agree with you 79 on the fact that all we have currently is a borad cirulation and we would need to see more deep convection and concentration of the convection befor this sytem will develop further. as the shear slacks off in the next 24-36 hrs i suspect we will see this happen. a td will mostlikely form by tuesday

i must say though i continue to mention the ridge to its north is centered way in canada and will move slowly south. this ridge will weaken and even split in 2 in some models. movement of the system will be slow and mostlike hug the coast of floride and make make landfall around sc if at all, a shortwave will move thru and pick this sytem up in 3-5 days. after that time we must watch the wave near the lesser antilie as it as been growing in convection slowly over the past few days. behind that is a new wave just off of africa. this weave is forcasted by the gfs to form into a cyclone in 7 days. so alot to watch
aqua, down here, MIA way nothing about ANY shortages of any kind
This new system developing will be one of those very difficult to forecast. That comes with the weak steering currents. In this type of scenario, I like to ask my friends, who have no idea how to forecast, to decide. That way I do not use personal biases.
Lets not forget the old 92LInvest. While we are distracted with systems closer to the US, it will make it into the Caribbean and all of a sudden....
79!!! MEMEMEME!!! I have no clue how to forecast!
just wanted to let u guys know IMMMMMMMMMMM BACKKKK
steve mentioned that the system off africe was impressive, however brought a great deal of dust with it, should make for interesting watching, which wins over
ok cgables, where is it going and how strong wil it be? Heres a satellite to helpLink
true we will be talking about this one and it wont develop and then we turn around and have a hurricane in the carribean..well not that fast, but..lol..The way this year has been going..lol..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER... CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
exactly wg03
if we can get some of that SW shear to die down a bit just to the north i think we would have something sooner then latter.
BRB eatin
hmmm, 79,
takes a while to load, am dialup, sad me,
one 600 mis off looks more promising to dev sooner, however, looks to track N maybe NNE in Maria wake...
closest to FL still pretty diffuse, not coalescing any particular spot as yet. If I had to say tonight, I'd say parallel FL and then NE, but as it's not moving... it's a crapshoot... My wishful thinking is that is go away!!! ::G::
just tolet you know some indications is that if the ridge sinking south remains strong and does not weaken this sytem might enter the gulf and impact areas already impacted by katrina. this is a possibilty if the ridge stays strong. if the ridge weakens as some models do the developing system would move n or nw very slowly befor being pulled out to sea by an aproaching short wave in 3-5 days
It appears that a serious outflow channel has opened up to the north. This should keep this system "breathing".
TWC just said a low level circulation has formed with the area of disturbed weather closest to the FL coast and this may be our next depression.
just been looking at that area just north of Grand Bahama, and it certainly seems to be cranking up. Banding features are becomming evident in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with possible a strong band taking shape in the southeast quadrant. Models have been hinting at development in this area so it certainly needs watching, especially given its proximity to the coast. Think this could be our next classified system, but it might be a race between this and 93L to the NE of the T&C Islands. 93L has some good convective structure and a developing comma shape cloud signature, so it too could become a classified system soon.
Navy just posted a new Invest - 94L. Unfortunately they still haven't fixed the bug with their new storm pages, so both 93 and 94L don't show anything useful... You can click on the visible link and get the visible sat image, so I can confirm this is the system over the Bahamas.


Hey willdd are you talking about that area east of Miami...Link
Per the NHC 8:05 discussion. The Atlantic Ocean...
at 2100 UTC a 1010 mb low is located over the Bahamas near
27n78w. Scattered moderate convection is from 25n-28n between
75w-80w. This low will be closely monitored since it has good
upper level support.
Hey willdd are you talking about that area east of Miami...Link

All that kind and worse was up off WPB earlier today, it seems to be see-sawing back and forth. We have to wait and see if it starts sitting in just one spot, it has been very spotty so far.
27N 78W Hmmm.... Further north than our consensus?
ejs! they better monitor it! LOL, we already got dumped on once here, and we don't want any more... dang, we're still cleaning up debris and mopping up the muck. HOWEVER! noone is complaining in light of what happening to the Gulf.
I hear ya cgable.
I thought it was near there earlier..who knows..lol..we will see.
Hey weatherguy is it raining there? It's pouring here!!
161. tessa
Does anyone remember a woman who was here on the blog before Katrina hit and she told us she couldn't evacuate cos' her husband had a broke back? She had 2 little children. Does anyone remember where she was from and her name?
Tessa, have you tried the Katrina blog set up on this page?
You may be better served to go there if you don't receive satisfaction from this blog.
tessa, no, but when lefty gets back from dinner, maybe
Oh yeah it has been on and off, alot of rain coming in off ocean tonite.
Okay, they re-entered the info for Invest 94L Here are the 00Z runs: Link
Those new TPC models confirm my belief of the developind system in the Bahamas to move WNW then NW into the Central Florida Peninsula.
Floater 2 now over system near Florida....Link
Hey 79, they initialized the models too far south if you believe the NHC positioning this low at 27N 78W.
I dont think the low is that far North, and it appears that there is some disagreement among those at the TPC/NHC
As I said before, the center of any low would be East of Homestead by about 100 miles, which is almost exactly the same location as the models are initialized 25.7N 78.3W
Here is AL94 graphically....Link
Yes WG03, it looks like the new models think the ridge to the North will persist and move this system WNW.
The NHC even has an overlay setup on the floater Satellite, click on NWS fronts on top of the images, you will see the Center location
the actual center developing is about 60 miles SE of that L
Dont want it to get into Gulf...Please move more NW..lol..PLEASE...The only thing I know for sure is..Its gonna be a slow mover..lol..
New post
actually i am not sure if its a Katrina Blog or not??
does anybody else put the low about 75 miles e ne of the NHC.. i may br dead wrong but the t-storms have presisted there to and if that to the nw is a sign of banding trying to develop their low center is off.... some insight please
it does seem the center could be south of there but that is a presestent bolg of convection if you look at the GOES interactive
lowpressure, I see what you are talking about. There is a band of storms to the South of that location developing, with some curvature. It is that curvature that leads me to believe that the Center is not ENE of the NHC location, but to the SE. Radar loops are also helping to confirm that.
hi

do we have a TD15 yet and where is it going what hop not it is going to la where the las one hit they do not need it right now it going to take 36 day to get the water out of there and the last thin they need if a hurrican comeing
i got ya 79, i just want to keep an eye on the far ne loacation just because nothing has been cnfirmed yet... alothought i do see your prespective and it does seem to be a real player to watch
even if the GFS is online now, remember it over plays the strenght of ridges and suffers from feedback on a regular basis due to its robust troughts
i mean by that developing low pressur systems to fast and deep
i do have to say the latest water vapor and the GOES 12 offer convection sustained e ne of the NHC.... does anybody else see this
79 ,, lefty .,,, storm r u there
hi

i see it on water vapor loop is it TD15?

not yet 8888 everone else thinks its farther south but i think i COULD be there, however i d see the farther south location some r sugeting
i think td 15 may form at the 5 pmadvisory tomarrow if not the 1100 and 16 may form ( the one close to FL) at the 100 pm advisory tomarrow night if not ater
1100 not 100 pm
sorry........... tpc low is not right
hi

if this dos do pop up it to a tropical depression where will it go and will it hit the usa?
the tpc low position is based on more than sat and ir imagery. also it is a broad are of low pressure with no low level center or cirulation. ur assuming it is more orginised than it is.
hi

i do not want to be up and down but i like to do live update when there a hurrican makeing landfall in the usa and i do is i rec on my tv and then i put then i ues my hp came to put it all in my lap top but this time around my last one hurricane maria is a no show and what i mean dy a no show is when they do not make landfall in the usa and when they go out to sea like maria did i call them a no show for then i would not get my live upday when the weather ch or cnn go out and the storm so i would like to no will TD15 and TD16 be a no show for me or will they not be a no show and make landfall so i can do my live upday on the weather ch at home and cnn too?

david
The new gfdl run is out for the system East of FLorida. Takes it across Florida, and enters the Gulf just North of Tampa Bay. and moves WNW.
it appears from radar that the system off the florida coast is forming a llc, the llc is about 100 miles east of miami
latesat gfdl bting the system off the florida coast west into the gulf and blows up a major hurricane and tracks it towards la. not a good thing at all. good thing is that the system has not formed and models are somewhat useless at this time
Could I get a link Lefty?
Okay....the latest gfdl model run in not optimistic for SE Florida and then the Gulf Coast. Does anyone notice any steering currents that could be stronger/weaker than predicted. Katrina was predicted to hit well north of Miami but at the last moment it started moving south and almost everone was surprised....except the gfdl model. I am noticing a more south landfall each model run. Also, on the visible sat. it looks pretty pathetic, but once again I learned witht he last storm do not take the looks of a strom for granted as it is developing......
The long range radar from Miami shows a marked improvement in the low compared to last night. The LLC is evident about 100 mi. E of Miami.
HI


IF THE LOW DOS enters the Gulf WHERE WILL IT MAKE LANDFALL?
HI

IF THIS DOS MAKE LANDFALL IN THE Gulf AS A HURRICANE ALL I CAN SAY IS GOOD BY New Orleans

DAVID
203. MJH
What are you all looking at, that storm is getting pushed across florida. The most recent computer models show the same.