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Tropical depressions may form in the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Caribbean in the next day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on September 24, 2007

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moved ashore into Louisiana early this morning and is no longer being tracked by NHC as "Invest 94". Long range radar out of New Orleans shows a steady stream of moisture associated with the disturbance continues to flow northwards into Louisiana today. Satellite imagery this morning shows that a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. This new circulation has been labeled 94L by NHC this morning. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday. Wind shear has dropped to about 15 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 15 knots or below for the next three days. The disturbance is headed west-northwest at less than 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to northern Mexico--and possibly southern Texas--by Wednesday.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of tropical systems to watch.

Lesser Antilles disturbance 97L
A tropical wave (97L) is very near Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave has not gotten any better organized during the past 24 hours, as seen in the latest Satellite imagery. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to slowly rise to 20 knots by Thursday. There is some favorable anticyclonic outflow at high levels, and 97L has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. At that point, the future evolution of the storm depends on how close it comes to the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Most of the models predict 97L will pass over the island, which would greatly disrupt the storm. The GFDL model predicts 97L will survive the disruption, and re-intensify as it continues to move northwest into the easternmost Bahama Islands on Saturday. However, there is a band of very high wind shear predicted to lie just north of the Bahamas all of this week, and 97L could well encounter this band of high wind shear Thursday, which should weaken the storm. In any case, this system represents a threat to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday, and residents may experience tropical storm conditions as early as Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. This afternoon's flight was canceled.

Links to follow for 97L
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Guadaloupe weather
Martinique weather
St. Lucia weather


Figure 1. Microwave image from 3:28 am EDT today showing low-level spiral bands starting to form on the west side of 96L. Image credit: Navy/NRL.

Atlantic disturbance 96L midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (96L) near 9N 32W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This wave has gotten much more organized late this morning, as seen in the latest satellite loops. The circulation associated with the wave is unusually large, and one can see a large area of inflowing low-level cumulus clouds spiraling into the center of 96L. The storm has been slow to organize, since it is so far south. At the storm's current latitude--9 degrees north of the Equator--it cannot leverage the earth's spin very much to help spin up the huge circulation it has. However, the storm will probably be a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A few low-level spiral bands have already formed, as seen in recent microwave satellite images (Figure 1). Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with winds generally in the 15-20 mph range. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear forecast has changed significantly since yesterday, and high levels of wind shear exceeding 20 knots are now expected to impact 96L beginning Tuesday, rising to 30 knots on Thursday. This is the type of wind shear Tropical Storm Ingrid encountered earlier this month, and the shear eventually destroyed the storm. Both the GFDL and HWRF models develop 96L into a tropical storm, but keep it a minimal tropical storm through the end of their 5-day forecast period. The storm is expected to gradually work its way north as it crosses the Atlantic, and appears likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands next week. The last few runs of the GFS model show 96L eventually recurving out to sea next week.

Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry is only worth mentioning since it increases our storm totals for the year to ten. Jerry will be gone tomorrow, absorbed by an extratropical low pressure system.

Hurricane Rita anniversary
Today marks the second anniversary of Hurricane Rita's landfall in Southwest Louisiana. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss has written a blog and posted his usual amazing photos documenting his experience with Hurricane Rita. One of the more remarkable features of the account is his encounter with hundreds of exhausted birds in the eye of Rita. The unfortunate birds got trapped in the eye for days, unable to escape.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TWD late?
To me 96l already looks more like a TS than Jerry or Gabby ever did. Just have a couple of things to ask and say then I'll go back to just reading. First, does anybody think like me and believe naming systems like Jerry that are marginally tropical and provably would not of been named 5 or 10 years ago falsely inflates storm totals. Also, I'll just mention this even though it may tick off some. I sometimes find myself secretly pulling for a storm and have to remind myself that wind shear and dry air intrusion is not a "too bad" thing. I know no one here really wants to see a bad storm hit anywhere. It's just that sometimes if someone is reading this blog for the first time they might think they have logged on to the Hurricane Protection Society.
96L still impressive
96L
SE Texas

Rita and Humberto both effected SE Texas. I live in SE Texas, In the Houston /Galveston area.
Thanks, Sophmom!
According to forecast maps two days out offshore winds should crank up to about 40knots to squash 94I if it should develop.
We all come on here to learn, no use arguing... For all we know we all are wrong... The only people who are right is the NHC, about 99.9% of the time!
509. IKE
Rita landfall.....on radar...

Link
510. Prgal
A quick question...sometimes people post here the pressure and wind speed of a system by looking into the Navy site. I do have the Navy site here but I dont know where to get this info. Can anyone help?
Posted By: 96LshouldbeTD at 5:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

94L is overrated and won't become more than a minimal hurricane if that.Let's talk about 96L, the one with all the potential


I agree with you, 96L does look impressive, but I'D rather focus on a storm that could actually affect LAND...

94L has gone through a rapid intensification in ths last 3-4 hours and could become a depression tonight... also, it's sitting over warm waters - - I don't know if you've been around this hurricane season, but storms have had a tendency to "explode" in record time this season, so 94L should DEFINATELY be the one to watch right now...

96L will be a fun one to watch... and we will all get to watch it go out to sea

according to accuweather, it says that low pressure crossing the northern plains is what is steering the GOM disturbance.
when discussing hurricanes, i divide the coast around port lavaca anything north of that would be the north east texas coast and anything south would be the south east texas coast. i just dont consider houston south east texas.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT 24/1500 UTC BECAUSE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE SYSTEM HAD WEAKENED FROM THE STORM STAGE. NOT MUCH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT THE SYSTEM IS EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN ANY EVENT.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY AT 24/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
39.5N 44.5W OR ABOUT 820 NM/1520 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
JERRY IS MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS WAVE ALREADY ARE REACHING
SAINT LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ALSO MAY
BE REACHING BARBADOS NOW IF THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
EXPERIENCED THERE ALREADY EARLIER TODAY. THE CELLS PRODUCING
THIS PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 56W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. IT IS
EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AS LONG IT MAINTAINS ITSELF AS
IT IS DOING RIGHT NOW. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N34W ABOUT 1520 NM EAST
OF BARBADOS...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS LARGE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N48W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12.5N TO 16.5N
BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MAINTAINED GOOD
WESTWARD CONTINUITY IN BOTH SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS
AND THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SINCE EMERGING OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 14N48W LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND
42W. THIS WAVE MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED OR RELOCATED ALONG
THE BETTER DEFINED LOW JUST TO ITS EAST...WHICH APPEARS
TO BE ABSORBING THE WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT EASILY SEEN IN ANY OF
THE AVAILABLE DATA AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS ANALYSES. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 15N78W TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE


Within 12 hours conditions for 94L are going to change from hostile to ideal. Shear will drop to near nothing. I think this one will be our next named storm should this convection continue like it has. The conditions will be ripe for development...will just have to wait and see. Unfortunately, for Mexico, it looks like they will get another tropical system this year from it. Also, the steering currents become almost nothing in the next few days, which will only give it more time to get its act together.
Anything south of port lavaca is SOUTH Texas anything north is SE Texas. Are you in Texas?
Ya missed this 23,,


THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N93W...ALONG A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM 19N91W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N95W
IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND FROM
28N TO 29N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS BEING STRETCHED OUT BY THE FLOW
REGIMES...ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORMING ON TOP OF
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...IN THE BAHAMAS
WEST OF 76W NORTH OF CUBA...IN CUBA WEST OF 78W...AND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 27N88W.
96L may be the biggest open wave we've seen this year, assuming its still just a wave...
From Stu Ostro at TWC:

By early this morning convection increased again in the northern Gulf, and there's a little atmospheric doohickey headed for the Lousiana coast with even a bit of spin evident on radar imagery centered offshore of Cameron Parish, Louisana, but this circulation is mainly aloft and very, very weak.

Farther south, the convection which I noted above was lingering near the Yucatan last evening is really flourishing at the moment, and there's a low-level circulation centered where I've put the "L" on the recent satellite image below. Environmental conditions are certainly not totally favorable but neither are they totally preclusive of any development, so the potential still exists to get at least a tropical depression out of this. The whole system is expected to move slowly, which if that's the case means we have additional time to monitor it, unlike Humberto which went from not even a tropical depression to a landfalling hurricane within 15 hours.

So, there's a tropical cyclone trying to develop in the southern Gulf and to the north of it locally heavy showers moving onshore in the U.S, and even some radar echoes spiraling around just offshore of Cameron, Louisiana (you'd see the rotation centered about the "X" below if I could put a sequence of images in motion):

That's quite a coincidence, as exactly two years ago today there were also radar echoes rotating around a center just offshore of Cameron and Holly Beach, and fortunately what's going on at the moment there and down in the southern Gulf is feeble compared to then. Anybody remember what happened on September 24, 2005? If you're in East Texas or southwestern Louisiana, you sure do.

Compare the radar and satellite images above with these NOAA images:

Yes, that's Hurricane Rita.

houston has always been described as being in southeast tx. when you look at a map, where else would it be?
roxycc....you have the upper Texas coast, the middle Texas coast, and the lower Texas coast.

SE Texas includes the Houston/Galveston area and the Golden Triangle (Beaumont, Pt. Arthur, Orange.
While all of the WFO's along the Texas coast make almost no mention of 94L, I wouldn't let my guard down just yet. Convection seems like it is becoming better organized and a TD may form by tonight. Given it's slow meandering, it seems likely that it will have the opportunity to develop into a TS during the next day or two. I do not see anything beyond a TS at this point, but things can change rapidly as we saw with Humberto.

The models that do develop this system are split between a more NW track and a more WSW track. I, personally, am not buying into a SW track... A westerly (265-275ish) seems more reasonable to me.

If you're along the Texas coast from Port Lavaca on down to La Pesca, Mexico, I'd keep a sharp eye on it as it certainly bears watching.
I'm confused! Hardly any mention of 94L in the 205. I'm not bullish on systems, but the 205 seemed mighty conservative. I'm sure they know what they're doing.
I know where Houston is... Its right next to Galveston... :S
People should always be concerned even when it is just a TS they can turn your life upside down. I have lived in FL all my 52 OMG years. My first taste of tropical weather was Hurricane Dora in Jax,FL. Met George Winterling predicted it right, I believe, against what others thought. Most current was TS Frances in Melrose, FL (and many in between) Electricity out for a week but we were basically lucky compared to many. My point is it didn't feel like it at the time and even small storms can be a pain. Sorry for the long post. Cat
Click the link in my last comment and you will see the anniversary storm we are looking at. If this is the return of Kartina's forgotten stepchild, Bastardi will be putting an "L" on every fried egg he sees in the morning.
Posted By: 96LshouldbeTD at 6:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

96L WILL NOT GO OUT TO SEA


What supports your opinion? I agreee with you not picking on you.
FTWbuoy, thanks for that link. it clarified all of the confusion with this 94L. Wow, I forgot how fat Rita was. Pretty impressive. Did anyone check out the link of the "tired birds" Dr. M mentioned?
Posted By: roxycc at 1:19 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.

Yes, i am in Texas. I am not going to get into a geography argument with strangers, you people take things way to seriousely, forget i said anything


Forgotten....completely
96L looks better and more organized to me than some hurricanes, if 96L is not a tropical storm now, then I'm a shuttle pilot. It reminds me so much of Ivan in its LAT & LON , its giving me the creeps!
540. 7544
97lis getting there slowly
99l looks like ats alreday does a stom have to look like buzz saw now before the nhc call it a td sehhhhhhhhh get real . all you miami folks plz. knock on the nhc front door and tell them to upgrade 96l thanks
Ninga, I concur with 96Lshouldbe, no fish. Had Jerry hung around longer maybe, but he's been absorbed and the highs to its east and west will ridge and keep both 96 and 97 on a more westward track than of a fish! They may still swim, only towards a landfall.
okay, I've got to go and do something productive. I'll check back later. Y'all take care.
94L may make it to a hurricane in the next few days.
96Lshouldbe & moonlight - thanks. I agree as well i don't think it will swim with the fish but i'm still learning and was just wondering how everyone gets to thier conclusions. thanks again.
Posted By: BrDennisH at 6:07 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
............................
..........................................
It's just that sometimes if someone is reading this blog for the first time they might think they have logged on to the Hurricane Protection Society.


I never thought of it like that but he is right?? My gosh what have we became??

Oh, well, back to being obsessed. If we have nothing to watch we fight, if we have something to watch we fight, and if we were wrong or right about the last thing we watched we fight?? LOL

94L is like NOT a good thing if it just sits out there and grows, I KNOW the top of the moisture like as in MO is going E, just wondering if that might pull 94L a little to the E.
Posted By: 7544 at 6:28 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.


99l looks like ats alreday does a stom have to look like buzz saw now before the nhc call it a td sehhhhhhhhh get real . tell them to upgrade 96l thanks


there is a 99L??? where?
550. beell
Good link for looking at the players for 94l maybe:
1.CONUS trof
2.Upper ridge over Cent Gom up thru LA and AR-being squeezed from the east.
3.Slowly squeezed upper trof between (dry air).
Just put em all together and make your forecast. Your call coach.
Lunch over for me.
(right? if i don't play i can't loose).





Link
TWC just said HH are to investigate later on. Earlier they said tomorrow, does anyone if they have rescheduled for this afternoon.
Yikes, this is a bit agressive.


554. IKE
Posted By: 96LshouldbeTD at 1:31 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
I remember when some people here thought Dean would be a fish. LOL


The latest GFDL(12Z, has 96L heading north in the central-Atlantic...fishie....

Link
556. 7544
opps i meant 97l lossing track lol sorry
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

Excerpts
AT LOW LEVELS IT SUPPORTS A LOW NEAR 22N
99W...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH 36-60 HRS. AT 60-84 HRS THE
LOW IS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT LIFTS NORTH...AND IT MIGHT
EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.

A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N 33W...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST ALONG 10N 42W BY 36 HRS...TO NEAR 10N 49W BY 60 HRS. IT WILL
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO 11N 51W BY 72 HRS.

A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF
18N...FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG 62W BY 24 HRS...64W BY 36 HRS...66W
BY 48 HRS...68W BY 60 HRS...AND 70W/71W BY 72 HRS. OVER THE FRENCH
AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLES-BARBADOS...IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLES IT WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-35MM...WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT
35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY 60 HRS...AND HAITI BY 72 HRS.

Afternoon all :~)

Guess we will be on opposite sides of the fence with 96 mlc. I think it is fish bound myself. trough should be strong enough to keep a fairly significant weakness in the ridge. 97 on the other hand...Don't think the fish will get to it, but apparently it is going to have to battle some shear.

That said, IF the models have too much climatology thrown in then maybe the trough will not be as strong as anticipated, preventing 96 from recurving.
Yeah TxAg, if that convection holds overnight, you could be right.

Gig 'em, 06.
561. IKE
Most of the models send 96L to the north Atlantic...

Link

And the ships model puts 96L at 44 knots in 120 hours.
SJ, I yield to your wisdom. However, if those highs ridge in the wake of Jerry, I would not be surprised to see 96L make a landfall on the ecoast somewheres north of FL, maybe further.

Lots of low pressures out there. Is there another one trying to form of the sFL coast?
Hey guys back from lunch checking in on the latest
With the factors mentioned playing a role:

96
GFS and GFDL both have 96l as a fish.If 97l can withstand the shear we might have a problem.
txag91met......hurricane is a bad word right now. Remember this past Thursday night?
96LshouldbeTD i agree with you,ive seen the satellite animations for over 4 hours already and i see that 96L is still moving west
Now why the heck isn't 96L a depression? This is crazy!
Very likely if they do ridge mlc, just kind of doubting the ridging. That said, it looks to me like the troughs are also getting stronger. Wait and see as usual!

Back to work, see y'all in a couple hours

Quick Links-Forecast models, Imagery, Marine data, Wind data, Preparedness and much more.

tampabay: is that the proposed track for 97L?
mlc, check what the CMC spins up of the W coast of S Fla.
576. 7544
lots of cnvection now building around 97l the gfdl says a ts by days end what you think .
I don't understand why 96L 's models have shifted to the north so much in the last 3-4 hours..what do they see that makes em think this will bea fish storm.. anyone know?
Here's that "interesting little dohickey" south of Cameron. Check out the wind.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=LCH&loop=yes
Is a fish storm called just that because it's only a storm at sea? Or is it called that because the circulation pulls it up out of the sea? Doesn't sound likely, but why else call it a fish storm? Seriously... I dont know the jargon and would like to know :) Anyone?
Goes-12 Low Cloud Product GOM
Click to Enlarge

Link
96L is a TD maybe a TS
T#s on 94L and 96L are now 1.5. Should see storms 11 and 12 at 5:00 pm.
583. IKE
Barbados has WSW winds....

Observed at: Grantley Adams, Barbados
Elevation: 164 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
85 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 18 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.84 in
Visibility: 6.0 miles
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 984 ft
Scattered Clouds 1575 ft
Mostly Cloudy 27559 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Actually, that would 12 and 13...Jerry was 11.
586. 7544
StormJunkie at 6:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

mlc, check what the CMC spins up of the W coast of S Fla.


where did that one come from ouch west coast hur. over the so fla coast . ?
587. JRRP
I DONT THINK SO
96L IS NO MOVING WEST
94L has a better satellite presentation than TD10 ever did.
Well, I guess 94L has returned and 96L looks great...97L looks better than it did this morning, although still slowly organizing..
96l looks like a hurricane
I wouldnt be surprised if we saw three depressions/storms by tomorrow
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 6:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Actually, that would 12 and 13...Jerry was 11.


Forgot about him. Thanks for correcting me.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

mlc, check what the CMC spins up of the W coast of S Fla.


Do you have any maps/pics?
zoomiami... That's one of them. The TAOS. It uses information/data from a handful of sources to derive tracks and intesity. Take with a grain a salt, its early yet

Link
97L is gone
Kind of weird how the big picture in the tropical atlantic right now looks like the middle of August.....Looks like something will give over the next 24 hours....
I haven't been critical of the NHC at all this year.

However...

If 96L is not named a depression at 5pm...lol
To my very untrained eye, the GOM certainly looks busy. All those blobs? Sort of omminous. any expert opinions would be appreciated. Rather ironic this is Rita's anniversary.
601. 7544
96l is going to be a huge strom look at realestate it starting to take up now big blow up around the cente this one will be annonce by skipping the td status and right to ts karen she even sounds like a mean one
Thanks, SJ...that confirms my suspicions about the low off the swFL coast! May spin something up there indeed? Man, the tropics are a HOT BED of activity!
Posted By: cycloone at 6:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

97L is gone


Um...no, its not
604. IKE
Posted By: cycloone at 1:55 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
97L is gone


Not on the Navy site, it isn't.
I wouldn't slap any predictions on any of these systems at this point, but they are all looking better to me this afternoon than they did this morning... which is scary as we approach the D minimum...
97L looks much more organized
you all just about answered my questions while i was asking that last question so sorry for the redundency. Whatever the case 96 looks like a ts already to my noobie eyes and a very scary one. Will it get bigger than it already is or do they tighten up as they git better organized..and smaller? That thing looks like it could take on all of the se seaboard.
Well, this morning it looks like the United States will be safe for now from the three invest areas. I wonder if anything can change in the next 24 hours though. Thoughts?
were at or around dmin with 97 and 96L...and there holding up very well...wouldnt be surprised if we saw both become depressions by late tonight
Miami Long Range 30 frame Radar Loop

Link
Yup, old 94 is back mon. Hoping for some surf. Hey is that "wish-casting"? LOL.
I have a feeling Alabama wil get huge rains from a tropical system of some sort. They are way behind in rain and the odds are with them.
614. N3EG
The Atlantic gets a Jerry, and the Pacific gets a Thingamabobbercane. This still bugs me.
GFDL did a bad job on Dean, but apart from that, it's generally done pretty well, as usual. Especially on Ingrid -- everyone else wanted to take her out to the fishies, but GFDL wanted to bring her to the leeward Antilles and dissipate her there.

When GFS and GFDL are in agreement, I usually listen. 96L, fish. It's a pretty storm, but we can't let that affect our judgement.

I'm a lot more concerned about 97L. The latest runs have shifted the track just a tad more south. Unfortunately, that "tad" means that the low isn't going to land atop the Dominican mountains, nor will it be in the heart of the projected shear, *and* it looks more lined up to sail into the gulf. I really, really don't like that.

GFS wants her to dissipate soon and never get to that point. I hope it's right. GFDL disagrees, though.
96L hasn't been categorized because it's baffling even the experts. . .

Is it a TD? Is it a TS? It's SUPERSTORM! Fish or not, it's colossal
97L and 96L have some nice banding features...
Hey guys, look at 14n 49w, there is a Low trying to enter the game too.
One reason I think 96L hasnt become a depression yet is because since it has a large circulation it has had some trouble organizing more...but as it is raising in latitude, we should see even more organization
Where the world famous "SPECIAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT"? Any time now I suppose, or at 5:30 they just declare them both.
WELCOME TO REALITY!

96L: Yes, it will be Karen. Yes, it will face shear. No, it will not die to shear. Yes, shear will hinder development and weaken it. Yes, it will most likely head to sea.

97L: No, it will not be a hurricane. Yes, it will face shear. Yes, it is true it might turn out to nothing. Yes, there is a possiblity it will develop...however it would still be minor. Why? Shear, land, and more shear..!

94: No, it will not be a hurricane. Yes, it will be a strong TS. No, it will not be anything major. Yes, it will bring heavy rains and very gusty weather to Texas. Yes, it will be all over soon.

This season is a BUST!
622. 7544
here are the three choices

94l
96l
97l
who gets the crown to be KAREN first .
the words "colassal" and "hurricane" should really never be used together...it's upsetting....
I dont think 96L will become karen...they usually dont jump on naming CV storms...but I think 94/97 will have a better chance becoming karen
Which one of these systems will be named first? I think 96l is looking like the front runner, however 94l is rapidly organizing and much closer to landfall...There even seems to be a little low following 97l, however you can see the shear to the NW, it seems to be taking a beating.
Anyone check out the small surface vorticy along the wave axis just off the LA coast??


Radar loop (non-java)

One can also notice it on visible imagery

Gulf of Mexico Visible (java)
I don't think 97L has nice banding features. Last QuikSCAT doesn't even show a closed circulation. Upper level convection != banding. This thing still has a long way to go.

Unfortunately, the latest tracks have its "way to go" being over the warm waters of the Carribean, whose shear is retreating from the storm and will be effectively gone tomorrow morning, instead of over the Dominican. Not good.

By the way -- has anyone looked at the crazy shear the northern gulf is going to have on Wednesday? Looks like the panhandle will be under 50 knots!


as long as 96L remains below 13N for the next 24 hours, which it should, the shear wont be a problem
I am in no position to propose where a storm will go, but I will propose everyone has a plan ready no matter what type of weather happens.

The fish say "Eat more chicken" thank you says Nemo! lol
97L may not have had a closed circulation according to QS last night...although barbados reported WSW winds, indicative of a closed circulation
Since humberto was forecast to move into Texas, but moved into Louisiana, and TD 10 was forecast to move into Louisiana, I will just start assuming that when a storm is forecast for a certain state, I will chose the state next to it for landfall. lol
I apologize for my poor choice of words. I'm still a novice here.
is 96l forecast to survive the shear or is it too early to determine that? could it possibly stay south into the carr and turn north into the carr and north via jamaica or cuba or yuc into gom or fl? does that happen this time of year...im new to this just trying to learn....very interesting. not wishcasting hear, just trying to see if there is presedence with past storms forming that far south this time of year and what impacts if any they have had on the western carr & US(fla in particular)?
Yes, there is a possiblity it will develop...however it would still be minor. Why? Shear, land, and more shear..!

You might want to doublecheck those "land" and "shear" concepts with the latest GFDL track...



They've budged it south. If it follows this path, no Dominican mountains, and it misses most of the shear. Not to mention, is lined up to enter the Gulf.
In addition to the lingering 94 energy, now we may have an upper level low interacting with one of the tropical waves that may produce 98L!!! Wow, the tropics are busy!
Posted By: New2SOFLA at 7:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

is 96l forecast to survive the shear or is it too early to determine that? could it possibly stay south into the carr and turn north into the carr and north via jamaica or cuba or yuc into gom or fl? does that happen this time of year...im new to this just trying to learn....very interesting. not wishcasting hear, just trying to see if there is presedence with past storms forming that far south this time of year and what impacts if any they have had on the western carr & US(fla in particular)?


Its really too early to know for sure...it may avoid shear and it may not...too early to tell where exactly it will go, but when the nhc classifies it as a TD, we will know more about where it may go
Humberto hit texas putintang
638. IKE
Posted By: putintang3 at 2:10 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Since humberto was forecast to move into Texas, but moved into Louisiana, and TD 10 was forecast to move into Louisiana, I will just start assuming that when a storm is forecast for a certain state, I will chose the state next to it for landfall. lol


It hit Texas first....

Here's the radar when it made landfall...

Link

Oh, and by the way: to those who said that NHC wasted "Jerry" to boost the named storm count: there are guidelines, and they follow them. If they wanted to boost the storm count, why wasn't TD-10 Jerry?

Sure -- Jerry was a weak storm with no future. But it met the definition, so it got the name. If you have a problem with the naming criteria, fine -- but go back into the past and take away all of the *other* storms that were named that were duds, and adjust *their* annual counts.
641. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:15 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!

And you are an @$$!!!

Tell that to those in Mexico and Nicarauga; this also says that you have not been following storms for more than a few months (this season)...


STL...I think he was teasing when he typed that.....
Jerry met the qualifications of a tropical cyclone...just because they dont effect much doenst mean their duds..
I'm off to work, be interesting to see how things are looking in the a.m. I have afeeling there will be lots of things to blog about. Bye.
645. 7544
also watch if the gov. officals for the bahamas they will make their own call for 97l if it gets close they dont wait for the nhc to put up thier watches as they always do in past stroms they will decide on thier own forcast first
WeatherfanPR:

I see it too. Looks a bit of circulation. Who knows what will come of it, being so close to the other two, and it'd probably get steered out to sea... but worth keeping an eye on.
Naming storms in the middle of the atlantic is no different than naming storms in the epac...should Hurricane Cosme have not been named?
From Doc:
Tropical Storm Jerry is only worth mentioning since it increases our storm totals for the year to ten.
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!

Define BUST doc
But I agree with the fact that it was named.
I guess on the other hand, 94L may get that dry air off to the west sucked into it and poof... Like a puff of smoke, it'll be up and gone.

That's another possibility for 94L..
Sometimes I think people only say those kind of things is because they would rather track something in the caribbean that is a threat to land
Yes. It's only worth mentioning because it increases the totals. Not "only worth naming". It got a name because it met the criterea. It's only worth mentioning because it got a name.
Posted By: wxwatcher at 7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

I guess on the other hand, 94L may get that dry air off to the west sucked into it and poof... Like a puff of smoke, it'll be up and gone.

That's another possibility for 94L..


i was thinking that there was a chance for that, although I am thinking that if that were to happen, it would have already started to happen
655. IKE
Any tropical system in the Atlantic should be named if it meets the criteria. If it is...it is. Granted...it may be a total fish storm...and it may seem as if a name was wasted...but, if it qualifies...name it.

10 down.
8 to go to meet my prediction.
P3, and TX means MX
Posted By: IKE at 7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Any tropical system in the Atlantic should be named if it meets the criteria. If it is...it is. Granted...it may be a total fish storm...and it may seem as if a name was wasted...but, if it qualifies...name it.

10 down.
8 to go to meet my prediction.


And 3 more could be on their way lol
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!


Thank goodness! ppl wishing these storms to blow up into mega property damaging storms obviously dont have to pay the home owners insurance premiums that follow right behind them.
tag a name to an invest:

94L-Karen
96L-Lorenzo
97L-maybe Melissa?
660. IKE
If 96L isn't a TD, then I'm not 49.
Y'all know that Dr. Masters updated his blog about 20 mins ago right?
Check the Cent Atl buoys around 96L... West wind south of the center, NE wind north of center... surface circulation already.
663. IKE
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:23 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Y'all know that Dr. Masters updated his blog about 20 mins ago right?


No...but thanks.
and according to climatology, we should only have 7 named storms by now...we have had 10, three above average and we are actually 1 below average on the count of total hurricanes, but we may increase that by 1 with one of these storms...but we are definatly above average with the two cat fives
Also, the next time there is a destructive U.S. storm, I hope that the WMO refuses to retire it because the U.S. only cares about storms that threaten it (well, it is allright to consider storms that threaten you to be more important, but not to the point that all other storms don't even exist, or even worse, were wasted)... face the facts... not every year is going to have $100+ billion, 1,000+ death storms hit the U.S, much less several major storms... the norm is a few tropical storms (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle) and a minor hurricane or two (Humberto)... you should be very lucky that Dean and Felix didn't hit the U.S. and become the next Andrew or Katrina...
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

KarenRei, you're a freakin wishcaster!

GFDL doesn't do much with it besides keep it VERY weak.


GFDL didnt barely make Felix a TS either LOL...look what happened, one model doesnt matter
Thank goodness! ppl wishing these storms to blow up into mega property damaging storms obviously dont have to pay the home owners insurance premiums that follow right behind them.

yeah but we do have to pay for insurance premium increases as a result, doesn't matter where you live!
extreme236, you said that with Ingrid.

Dont worry, this wont be one for the books like Felix. Felix had MUCH better enviormental conditions as opposed to 97L.

97L will just diminish..oh yeah, and 96L will go to sea.
I think 94L is going straight west into Mexico. Look at the low-level clouds on the western edge of the circulation on the visible sat. Not even a hint of northern movement. Due west. It should move inland over Mexico overnight.
and the GFDL brings 97L up to 51kts, so I dont know where your getting the very weak thing from
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:29 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

extreme236, you said that with Ingrid.

Dont worry, this wont be one for the books like Felix. Felix had MUCH better enviormental conditions as opposed to 97L.

97L will just diminish..oh yeah, and 96L will go to sea.


No, I didnt say the same for Ingrid....97L will not be like Felix...but you cant say it will diminish like your psychic or something
i see nothing written on 97L that says its dead...the GFDL actually brings it back to life in the bahamas
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:32 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Trust me, you all just want action.

I am a REAL educated person on here. Therefore, I dont hype up systems like you all.


Why should we trust someone who thinks a season with two cat five landfalls is a bust???? If you were really educated you would wait for some model consensus before you say things like that about 97L...that tells all
Ngps takes it north, you already said the GFDL makes 97L very weak, which is a lie, as it takes it up to 51kts
I think 94l is stalled out.
681. Prgal
There is a new blog guys :-)
As soon as I say whats going down, everyone on here becomes all offended.

See? You can't take the truth.
Fine, Extreme.

I'll correct that statment.

97L...WILL BE A HUGE BUST! Just like Ingrid.

Oh yeah, so will 96L.
683. Prgal
You have lost my respect Mandeli. Having a doctorate doesnt mean you are always right.
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 3:36 PM AST on September 24, 2007.

As soon as I say whats going down, everyone on here becomes all offended.

See? You can't take the truth.
Fine, Extreme.

I'll correct that statment.

97L...WILL BE A HUGE BUST! Just like Ingrid.

Oh yeah, so will 96L.


Any Psychic in the house??? The way the weather has been behaving, I have NO idea how people DARE to predict!!! But hey...Carry on, As you were!!!!!
Also, the next time there is a destructive U.S. storm, I hope that the WMO refuses to retire it because the U.S. only cares about storms that threaten it

If you are wondering, this statement could possibly be true; the WMO refused to retire Gordon in 1994 because they blamed Haiti for not being prepared:

Hurricane Gordon was a long-lived system that remained a tropical storm for most of its existence and followed a winding, atypical track through the western Caribbean and into Florida. Although Gordon was only a tropical storm for most of its long existence, it caused enormous damage. A United Nations estimate of the death toll in Haiti was 1,122. There were six deaths reported in Costa Rica, five in the Dominican Republic, two in Jamaica, two in Cuba, and eight in Florida. Despite the death toll, the World Meteorological Organization did not retire the name, issuing an official statement crediting Jamaica and Cuba's warning infrastructure for the low loss of life there, and blaming Haiti's lack of such a system for the large number of deaths there.
and Michael I was disgusted by what the WMO said. It wasn't those poor people's fault that their government sucked. They just died. They sure retired Katrina even though the death toll in Louisiana would have been far lower if the government had been good (ie levees maintained, and effective local government and evacuation plans, and an effective, quick response by the federal government.
Has anyone been paying attention to the Florida Keys?

Buoy reading with west winds over the last hour or so. Falling barometer at all surrounding buoys buy one. Steady winds over 12 kts at most surrounding buoys.

Conditions at KYWF1 as of
(3:30 pm EDT)
1930 GMT on 09/24/2007

09 24 3:24 pm SW 2.9 5.1 - - - - 29.95 - -
09 24 3:18 pm W 4.1 5.1 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:12 pm W 2.9 6.0 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:06 pm W 5.1 9.9 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:00 pm W 9.9 12.0 - - - - 29.96 -
09 24 2:54 pm W 11.1 13.0 - - - - 29.97 - -
09 24 2:48 pm W 8.9 9.9 - - - - 29.97 - -
09 24 2:42 pm NE 2.9 6.0 - - - - 29.98 - -

and take a look at ADDS VIS IR.

Worth watching?
You can see the strong shear in the eastern gulf, as all the storm tops are being blown off. I would put forth a guess that there isnt much to worry about with that area. The main issue is 94L. Once the shear drops later tonight, it will have a good chance of development.
96L is headed out to sea.

Another one bites the dust.
Posted By: New2SOFLA at 7:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
"is 96l forecast to survive the shear or is it too early to determine that? could it possibly stay south into the carr and turn north into the carr and north via jamaica or cuba or yuc into gom or fl?"

The shear forecast has changed significantly since yesterday, and high levels of wind shear exceeding 20 knots are now expected to impact 96L beginning Tuesday, rising to 30 knots on Thursday. This is the type of wind shear Tropical Storm Ingrid encountered earlier this month, and the shear eventually destroyed the storm.