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Tropical Depression Two here?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2006

The National Hurricane Center issued this special advisory at 8:20am EDT this morning:

Satellite and surface observations this morning indicate the low pressure area located about 250 miles southeast of North Carolina coast has become better organized this morning... and a tropical depression may be forming. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests along the North Carolina and Virginia coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Indeed, the first visible satellite images from this morning show a clear surface circulation developing near 32N 74W, about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. There is an impressive area of thunderstorms to the southeast side of the center of circulation. Upper level winds of 10-15 knots from the northwest are keeping any thunderstorms from building on the northwest side of the disturbance.

Water temperatures are 26 - 28C in the storm's vicinity, which is above the 26C threshold needed for tropical storm formation. The axis of the warm Gulf Stream current lies just 100 miles to the storm's northwest, so any motion towards the North Carolina coast will bring the system over very deep warm waters of 28 - 29C that should aid in intensification. The GFS computer model is indicating that wind shear will remain in the 5 - 20 knot range the next few days, which is low enough to allow some modest intensification. The exact magnitude of this shear will be critical in determining how strong this storm gets, and is difficult to predict at this time.

As we can see from the historical plot of the 15 tropical cyclones to form in July and August off the Carolina coast in July and August (Figure 3), all these systems moved north or northeast out to sea. Only one hit land, and only two got as strong as a Category Two hurricane. This storm will follow the historical trend, as a strong trough of low pressure is expected to push off the East Coast by Thursday, turning the disturbance northwards and then recurving it out to sea. North Carolina, Virgina, Maryland, and Nova Scotia appear to be the only land areas at risk from this storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Southeast Coast disturbance.


Figure 2. Preliminary forecast model tracks for the Southeast Coast disturbance.


Figure 3. Historical tracks of tropical cyclones that formed off the Carolina coast in July and August.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large area of thunderstorms is a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. Wind shear has dropped to 10 - 25 knots over this area, which is still too high to allow tropical development today, as there is a large amount of dry air in the vicinity. The system is expected to track northwest towards Bermuda and recurve out to sea.

A somewhat ragged tropical wave is near Africa, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. Water temperatures are marginal for tropical development in this region, and wind shear is high, 10-30 knots. The wind shear forecast shows the possibility of more favorable conditions later in the week if the wave can hold together as it moves westward across the Atlantic at 15-20 mph. I'm not expecting this to happen, however.

The Hurricane Center has scheduled a reconnaissance aircraft to check the Carolinas system out at 2pm EDT today. I'll be back with an update when the plane has had a chance to check the storm out.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It'll be interesting to watch
The way its going right now, by the time 2pm comes it will be a TS!!! LOL Like quakeman55 said, "What a difference an overnight makes!"
seems to me, that some tstorms are trying to form very near the center of our carolina storm ("frick")..... we will have to see if this persists....

this is definitaly a sign of possible intensification.........


Is there any chance of this making trip to Florida?
I am NOT liking the BAMs, but at least the LBAR was considerate enough to move east, LOL.
Does the NHC have any idea as to what the left hand and right hand are issuing as far as statements? Excerpt example:

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 am EDT Tue Jul 18 2006

A broad area of low pressure is located a couple
hundred miles southeast of the coast of North Carolina.
Although the low is currently not well-organized...there is a
potential for a tropical depression to form during the next day
or two.

This does not jive, in my opinion with the special tropical statement issued at 8:00 am from the same office!

Also weather buoy 41002, which I believe is about 70 miles NW of the LLC of 97L, is only reporting a north wind at less than 10 mph at this time.
11. WSI
"Is there any chance of this making trip to Florida?"

Not really. The trough is going to start picking it up later in the week and push it out to see the fish.
I am not new to this site but i am a new member and I thank all of you for helping keep me educated. I am learning a lot reading the blogs. Keep up the good work.
13. WSI
Welcome Responder1!
Posted By: GetReal at 9:44 AM AST on July 18, 2006.
Does the NHC have any idea as to what the left hand and right hand are issuing as far as statements? Excerpt example:

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 am EDT Tue Jul 18 2006

A broad area of low pressure is located a couple
hundred miles southeast of the coast of North Carolina.
Although the low is currently not well-organized...there is a
potential for a tropical depression to form during the next day
or two.

This does not jive, in my opinion with the special tropical statement issued at 8:00 am from the same office!

Also weather buoy 41002, which I believe is about 70 miles NW of the LLC of 97L, is only reporting a north wind at less than 10 mph at this time.


the statement was issued 8:20am.....
the discussion was issued 8:05am.....

00
WONT41 KNHC 181221
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
o well i hope this doesn't DEVESTATE anyone
Coops I saw that too.

Last night the LBAR had it coming over my house (my house is barely visible on that invest map) so it's nice to see it shift. Now BAM Deep has it coming near my house...

I really don't forsee much rain for East coast, maybe some good surfing (watch out for rip currents though). I'm keeping an eye out though cause the tropics like making a liar outta me!!
Sorry C2. You're asking for a bit much for 97l to pull an overexaggerated Jeanne and hit FL.
Dangit... gotta run! Y'all keep an eye on little B for me.
What changed so dramitically in 15 minutes???
Morning all and wlecome to the new folks.

It will be interesting to see how far W this thing gets as it starts heading N and out to sea eventually.

For those who have not see...
StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data and much more.
i just watched the weather channel tropical update and they only touched on the system saying they would watch it but never said anything more that that...they paid more attention to some t storms in the carribean
Good morning SJ. How are things?
C2NEWS

Are you one of those reporters that gets a woody over a storm?...out there reporting like you've got danger in the palm of your hand? I'm career Navy. I've seen ugly things all my life. They bring me no pleasure. Three years ago my wife and I purchased what will be our retirement home on the Indian River of Jensen Beach, FL. We've been through 3 hurricanes in the last 2 years. Calling for a complete rebuild of our home, outbuilding, dock and the complete loss of our sailboat that my wife and I spent 4 years refurbishing to it's origins of 1926. To watch storms...to try to predict them....understand them and be awestruck by them I have no problem and i include myself in this category. To want them to hit land makes me sick.
Posted By: GetReal at 9:51 AM AST on July 18, 2006.
What changed so dramitically in 15 minutes???


-I dont know
-what I do know..is that it is becoming better organized....

Note: Wind Shear and dry air is present...but they dont matter to me...because the system is getting better organize....

when it start to get poorly organize then I worry about dry air and wind shear
ricderr- i do not want storms to cause devestation.......i dont enjoy looking at pictures of new orleans in agony
looks to m "frick" has made somewhat of a turn, and seems to be heading more ne to me.....

also seems to have a pretty tight swirl......

cant wait to get some data from the HH's! :)
Morning Nash. Good to see you. Pretty good here and yourself?

What changed in 15 minutes?
what was that question in regards to?
ricderr- you've got wundermail
top two TWC meteorologits to get ultrasounds....Heather Tesch and Jennifer Lopez
Today on my blog I am going to have live data on the storm when recon flies. Also, I have created a nice compilation of tropical resources that will come in handy during this storm event. Enjoy!

Tropical Page
Gulf you are so right...I wonder what happen to tropical update these days:

They are caring more about publicity than actual tropics....

Doing well SJ. Sitting here in St. Pete fixing Novell issues and crabby users. It's nice to come in here in between and chat with my peers. I think August and September could be very hairy in the Gulf. Those waters are just stewing. I think the temp off Clearwater Beach is now into the 90's.
This has gotta be the most organized tropical wave I've ever seen......... Looks like something else to me. Tropical depression by 11 am. Thats what I'm guessing.
Doesnt look to me like C2News was getting any enjoyment from the prospect of a storm hitting FL.

Probably like the rest of us, we enjoy watching them form and discussing where they may hit.
Speaking of SSTs Nash I justed updated the comparison maps in my blog.

Back to work. See ya'll at lunch.

SJ
Water temp off of Boca here yesterday was 89 F, very warm for even Atlantic waters at this time of the year
I enjoy getting into the storms too with my nice jvc camera and my Storm Jacket Copyright 2003. plus my handy anemometer to feed data to my website...
TWC is the last place I look for valid tropical weather information. During Georges in 1998 they had Key West pinpointed on the Dry Tortugas which is about 90 miles west. Also they often refer to Key Biscayne right off of Miami as part of the Keys. Since they don't know where we are I don't trust them!
C2News: ricderr- you've got wundermail

So I know everyone is wondering.

When does the WUnderwear officially go on sale. Cause I'm so buying 10 pairs.
yeah key biscane is NORTH of Miami actually that is just stupid that they wuld call it part of "The Keys"
Jim cantori is still at the gym.

Speaking of the procrastinator, I do miss his upbeat interviews. Him and Bastardi need to get together and start scaring the stoopid public.. lmao
darn it my keys keep sticking!!!
ROFLMAO RedMosquito!!!!!!!

Wunderwear:-)
46. WSI
I didn't gather that C2News was wanting a storm to hit anywhere either. Was just a simple question if it had a chance to hit Florida, unless I missed a post somewhere.

Will be interesting to see if the NAM solution verifies. It has been holding this solution for a day or two now.

Created a new page last night for those who are new and need to know which sites contain the information they are looking for. Good links with descriptions.

Tropical Breakdown Page
.

It also contains links to the forecasting tutorial, and standard tropical page.
darn it my keys keep sticking

We might have some younger viewers here...keep those comments on the down low... ;)
Posted By: whirlwind at 2:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
darn it my keys keep sticking

We might have some younger viewers here...keep those comments on the down low... ;)


I am younger viewer...Im only 13
Would someone please give input on growing blob at 15N and 68W, ( central Caribbean). It appears to be headed in a direction of more favourable shear conditions.Thanks in advance.--Caymanite.
Red I do think he wants it to hit..he definatly infered that earlier..He has been waiting for a direct hit..Lets just hope it only hits his house(if he owns one)
well then..you may or may not get that joke then?...

I think all the forecasters just need to take July off. It looks like a crap July for storms.
I would love for something to hit jacksonville...im not talking about cat4+ but like a weak hurricane
I know i get sarcasim im not stupid
i just watched the weather channel tropical update and they only touched on the system saying they would watch it but never said anything more that that...they paid more attention to some t storms in the carribean

The Caribbean t storms are probably more likely (at this time, anyway ) to affect land and, coincidentally, people's travel plans . . . .

Unlike us stormwatchers, TWC has to keep the "customer" in mind; obviously this is going to skew their reporting. For example, when I lived in NC in the 1980s I hated TWC because they would only report on hurricanes if they had a strong likelihood of affecting the mainland United States. Storms like Hurricane Gilbert, which devastated Caribbean Islands like Jamaica, barely got a look-in until they approached the US coast . . . I don't think it occurred to them at the time that non-Americans would actually be watching their weather forecasts.

Actually, they have improved tremendously since Andrew, because they realized that watching the Caribbean / Atlantic gave them a loooong lead time on big storms like Katrina. So they were on that baby the minute the depression formed. . . .
hey fols HPC preliminary update we now have TD 2 off east coast
Posted by C2news "no i live in florida i want it to hit here (just as longf as its not a cat 4 or cat 5 hurricane i can stand anything else) I have been waiting since 2004 for nother hurricane to hit near me" You DID miss a post wsi
thats right
Since you guys are talking about hits...

Dont get your hopes down pro-hurricane fans. Even tho we had 23? named storms only 1 directly hit south FL(talkin bout my home town) that was Wilma. In 04 it was a normal season and we had two visitors, Jeanne and Frances. Its hard to say which year was more exciting, but it all depends on direct hits not having 50 named storms. If they all go out to sea, who cares?? Its all about land falls, and it only takes 1 storm...
Whirl we must be neighbors..And it only takes one storm..
Well said whirlwind. It isn't the number of storms. It's that one big mother that blows through and severely relocated peoples homes.
we now have TD#2
Official?
c2news...in Dr Masters last blog did say he wanted a storm to hit North Florida...he also said he was part of a news crew...now he says he's 13...guess you can say..i was taken in by a kid on the net...
97L seems to be getting bigger
Ric...Crazy isn't it?
we have Td 02
its official td 2 is born
Does anyone have any STONE to write in?
Posted By: whirlwind at 2:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
darn it my keys keep sticking

We might have some younger viewers here...keep those comments on the down low... ;)


I am younger viewer...Im only 13



Hey, it's great to see that the so-called "younger generation" is
1) interested in weather and tropical systems (keeping the tradition alive, hehe) and
2) not automatically using the @#$%$$#@ pound words heard on the street (and TV) all the time these days . . .

May I ask what got you interested in tropical weather watching?
pb....i guess so......i have to remember...tis the internet..land of lies and fabrications....can't believe everything you read
i wud like to congrats STORMTOP...he is the only one so far got July predictions right.....
yeah does the nhc have anything in the outlook
i got interested in tropical "stuff" in 1999 when floyd was coming towards jacksonville....i had a mandatory evacuation and my mother tok me to orlando while my dad was out to sea on his naval ship. I was confused and only saw rain. I was wondering what was happening and why I didn't have to go to school.
Any one have a great link to Shear maps over the Trop Atlantic?
Whirl we must be neighbors..And it only takes one storm..

Im in southern palm beach.


If td2 is here, why doesnt the NHC have it listed?
now every summer i go into the storms with my "crew" and report in the brunt of storms....i have hours of vidoe footage form 2004 and 2005 and 2006 alberto footage
A question for u guys out there . . .

When u get online for the first time each day during the hurricane season, what weather sites do you check first, second, and so on? Do you find this order changes when there is a known TS travelling in the ATL basin?

weather channel just announced formation..im watchin it
Posted By: Weather456 at 2:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
i wud like to congrats STORMTOP...he is the only one so far got July predictions right.....

Please explain, lol. I though he said no activity till middle to end of august?
1.Wunderground
2.NHC
3.TWC
4.First Coast News
5.Jacksonville.com
Guys, I think we may be getting a little too excited and worked up over TD2. It will more than likely be a fish storm of little consequence, but I understand the desire for ANY action. We've been salivating as it were for a couple of weeks and this is nice for scientific study for those of us who are studying to analyze these things for a living.
000
WTNT22 KNHC 181429
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 73.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ok progressive...I had posted in a question in my blog on July 1, about july predcitions....and he was the first to respond and said..one tropical system in July....

thats why i want to know why he's boasting and saying nothing before August....

But the good news is....STORMTOP would not come on for the next 2 weeks......
Link

wind shear map for whoever asked for it

Yea, td2 will go out to sea, no doubt.
PBG00

Ya, looks like a few of you were right. My apology, all the posts I saw didnt support that, but now I see it.
the weather channel is only useful when the storm is about to make landfall...then the live reports are good. I hate it when they are standing on a sunny calm beach, talking about a storm that is 100s of miles off shore...during that time I want to see radar, satellite, model maps, etc, not S. Abrams babbling on the beach.
HEY GULF!!
Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 18, 2006

...Second tropical depression of the season forms off the North
Carolina coast...
...Tropical storm watch issued for eastern North Carolina...
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the eastern coast of North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout
northward to south of Currituck Beach Light.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 32.5 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 220
miles...355 km...south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected to occur later
tonight or Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...32.5 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
I just realized, stormtop is wrong now, cool.
94. IKE
TD2 forming= NO ST!!!!

Wrong again ST!!!

Congrats!
wow... the sun sentinel has td 2 listed and the NHC does not... pretty slow
What if the upper low shearing the blob Northeast of Puerto Rico weakens the ridging to TD #2's East- that might reduce somewhat the chance that the trough swinging by to the North picks it up, so that it sits, waits for the trough to pass, and then backs Westward into the Carolinas.
oh by the ay did anybody see s. brams on twc during o4 frances when she was in new smyrna bch and got hit by that piece of metal from the hotel?
99. WSI
I think I heard a stone tablet crack and fall apart somewhere.

Maybe it was just in my head.

I have an idea. I believe that this blog is for teaching and a good way to do that is actually forecasting.To that end I propose a Forecasting Contest. We each forecast(once a day) a 24,48,72 forecast postion and intensity of tropical systems. If there is intrest let me know and we'll figure it out. Maybe at the end of that yeat the winner could get a free membership or even better asomething on their handle saying "#1 forecaster." Hopefully Jeff could participate too.
s. brams is eye candy..hmmmmmm
Thank you Whirlwind
and to say just last night this thing...almost look liked it gone.....
I have an idea. I believe that this blog is for teaching and a good way to do that is actually forecasting.To that end I propose a Forecasting Contest. We each forecast(once a day) a 24,48,72 forecast postion and intensity of tropical systems. If there is intrest let me know and we'll figure it out. Maybe at the end of that yeat the winner could get a free membership or even better asomething on their handle saying "#1 forecaster." Hopefully Jeff could participate too.
WSI: Maybe it was just in my head.

No, I heard it. It was music to my ears :)
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
It should be noted that a tropical depression is not a tropical storm
Has anyone else experienced any delay trying to log onto the NHC this morning? Man, I've been haveing extreme waits.
108. WSI
"Has anyone else experienced any delay trying to log onto the NHC this morning?"

Yeah, they are swamped right now apparently.
I've never had this much trouble. Usually they can handle the traffic very well. Must be some other problems there today.
cant get the NHC
they are prob updating thier site as well... personally I find most weather sites, esp noaa.gov, extremely slow and I have a 6.0mbps dsl.
Thanks storm W appreciate your response.( Think its the first time that Ive got one here--LOL)
114. WSI
I am having trouble gettin the RSS feed on my site to work right now too. It comes up, but clicking the links will basically do nothing. Yeah, they may be having some server issues as well, combined with the extra traffic.
it takes 2 minutes to load nhc on my satellite internet...
Gulf, I agree about listening to local forecasters and emergency managers as opposed to what is said on the blog.

On the other hand, this thing ain't headed south towards Jacksonville. The Bermuda high won't let that happen. The forecast that it will eventually turn northeast is pretty solid as well. The real question is, how far west does it go before it makes the turn?
CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS
OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

cant argue with them
I have some problems in the NHC page, but now I can get it and its official... Tropical Depression 2 formed east of NC....
i think NHC is swamped right now lol
ok lets have a bet....the wind speeds at the depressions closest point to land
having trouble getting onto the site myself but i'm gettin lots of local coverage!! back in a few minutes
ok ill be back in a half an hour..i need to update my website with the developments
the td should strenthen into berly..and just move out to sea....
I am trying to remember who hosted the contest for the name Chris, any of you guys remember?
Don't be so sure that this storm won't become a hurricane. The waters off NC are very warm. At Sunset Beach, the last southern beach in NC, the water is over 80 degrees 30 feet down. (By the way, Dr. Jeff please use imperial and not metric! No more centergrade!)
http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/index.php

Two years, I was vactioning at Sunset Beach. There was a low pressure off the coast. By the end of our trip, it was Hurricane Alex, the fastest forming hurricane ever. It is very much possible that this storm with go hurricane strength.

Definately worth watching.
looks to me, the center i was tracking earlier was erroneous, or shifted somewhat ese....

n at 4knts huh?

this could conceivable be named at 3pm.....
could this be beryl?

the dry air on the west side doesnt seem a problem.... but the ULL coming from the sse could be.......
Andrew 92
Here is the latest NAM...Link So far, suprisingly it has outperformed the other models.
131. PBG00
Andrwe 92...
WTNT42 KNHC 181454
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH INFORMATION
FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS...INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 250 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED SEVERAL 20-25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM AS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/04...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...
LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS
LIES ALONG ABOUT 35N LATITUDE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE KEYED
ON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF
TD-2. THAT SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MODELS
THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WITH ANY REASONABLE ACCURACY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS. THE 3
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT IN 36-48 HOURS. THE
NAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR
TO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO THE THIS UNCERTAINTY...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY
BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS
CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY
INITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN
ADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR. IN CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS
OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 32.5N 73.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Weather, & TPC Information Topics:
Storm Information, Hurricane Awareness, Historical Information,
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us

PP, that's me
wow, you guys posted fast lol
well, looks like this WILL be beyrl!!!!
136. PBG00
Fast typers
Thanks 92, been a while!
138. PBG00
no doubt Thel..But when..I say today
NAM also shows something moving into the eastern gulf in 60 hours
Here we go guys TD 2.... I Fully expect this system to become a pretty strong TS in time. i have much more around 1230pm.
"no doubt Thel..But when..I say today"


i say at 3pm when the HH get on station,
almost surely by 5pm........
I am curious to see what the recon shows. Personally I think this is probably a brush by Hatteras storm. But I have a natural bias that way.
And what about the probabilities near Cape Verde in eastern Atlantic? Is it possible to become the first major hurricane?

Thanks.
This can't be right! TD2?! But, but, but someone said, "nothing before August...set in stone...blah, blah, blah!" :D
How about every post their forecast for 24,48,72, icluding wind. Starting at the 5pm edt advisory.
I'm just curious to see some #'s.
146. PBG00
rx..I wonder if he has a stone eraser..hee hee
in 24 hours we will se winds at 5o mph
set in stone my arse! LOL

looks like we will have to keep our eye on buoy 41002.... just wish the darn barometer worked!!!!!!
24-50kt
48-65kt
72-45kt

just a guess. (no science)
150. IKE
That NAM model has run thru 84 hours...has TD2 cruising up the east coast before heading out to sea.

And yes...it shows a 1012 mb low in the gulf in 84 hours and with a trough coming down the eastern US....could get interesting...
What's going on with the wave that came off of Africa yesterday?


Brian
152. PBG00
Showers have dissipated...No development anytime soon
154. IKE
Someone must be feeding those seagulls!!!!!
TD2 is here and that is written in stone lmao

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
Stormtop if your reading this blog...just come on and give us your opinion on this TD.......I dont care whether your wrong or right....

But beacause of your attitude when you make your forecast...most people dont agree with me....

STORMTOP: Its not whether you are wrong with your forecast...its the way u state them.

if u stated them in a nice way....anyone cud care less whether u are wrong or right...

But now....most people are sure dancing because you are wrong.

Its not to late to start being nice..Give it a try...you'll be suprise how much people like you.
Thanks for the Weathercore/Tropical Breakdown site. Lots of good links for us neophytes. I grew up on Long Island Sound where the storms created excitement on our usually placid waters but were not hellcats like the ones in Florida where I live now. I'm hoping we avoid a repeat of '04, as one forecaster said, when the 'canes were "criscrossing the state!" Although it does look like the same "slow start" pattern we had two years ago until mid-August when every week or two, we "did the drill": gas up, make soup, etc. and prepare the grill! By the way, I think you can be fascinated by dramatic weather events without liking their effects.
158. IKE
ST won't come in.

I'm surprised lefty never comes in...TD2 is headed up his way. Wonder what happened to him???
i thought he was from the gulf coast area...
161. PBG00
I was just thinking that..What did happen to lefty?
162. IKE
I think lefty lives in Virginia.
There looks to be little shear currently affecting the depression and it is over warm water.
The low in the gulf @ 84hrs should be the wave out by Africa.
what systems should florida be worried about?
166. IKE
Think what is coming into the gulf by Friday is part of what's in the Caribbean now.
pp, if that is the low off of Afirca, then they have that thing hauling donkey? I have not looked at it, but I do not see how that could be the Africa wave. Could it be associated with the ULL N of the Antilles?

SJ
None Cjnew at this time
Wow this one pretty much caught me off guard!!I did say it had a chance though...
170. PBG00
Fla has no worries for now..other than normal t-storms
oh thats good for the residents and vacationers
173. PBG00
Beats havin to put shutters up!
taken from google images
175. IKE
I Ran...by A Flock Of Seagulls was a great song....80's music!!!
we now got TD 2 dr m need to update is his blog for it
pp, if that is the low off of Afirca, then they have that thing hauling donkey? I have not looked at it, but I do not see how that could be the Africa wave. Could it be associated with the ULL N of the Antilles?

SJ


They're prolly looking at the cluster of t storms in the Caribbean right now. I haven't looked at the forecast maps yet, but I think they are atthe southern end of the wave that is interacting w/ the ULL to the east of TD2.

I could see this entering the gulf more so than that wave off Africa . . .
Leave the Donkies outta this SJ lol, I see your point.
179. WSI
"Thanks for the Weathercore/Tropical Breakdown site. Lots of good links for us neophytes."

Thanks! Glad you find it useful. Feel free to send me a message if there is something you want to suggest.

"By the way, I think you can be fascinated by dramatic weather events without liking their effects."

I agree, which is why most of us are here I think. They are fascinating to study and watch, but the effects are not.


Tropical Breakdown
I agree with that Baha.

Gulf, that is uncalled for. First off the dial uppers don't need it and secondly I do not need to see those nasty hair dos for the next hour or so. :)

SJ
181. PBG00
PP you gettin rain down there? A t-storm just pooped up outta now where here
182. PBG00
popped..oops
"By the way, I think you can be fascinated by dramatic weather events without liking their effects."

I agree, which is why most of us are here I think. They are fascinating to study and watch, but the effects are not.

I think it may also be a matter of "watch more, worry less". I like knowing everything possible about a tropical situation that may affect my loved ones or me, so that if necessary I can remind them about the necessary precautions.

Plus the more we understand, the better we can prepare for future situations. I'm not trying to intimate that our little discussions here are earth-shaking, but by sharing information and ideas, we make it more possible that helpful advancements can be made.
sorry PP, no offense meant to the donkies :)
Fla has no worries for now..other than normal t-storms

Still...think I'll get my gas tank filled for the grill and start up the olde generator... Which direction do you think that "blob," as you call it, in the Gulf will go if it does develop into something?
Yeah! A little bit in Jupiter
I'd like to tribute this song to ST! Live long and prosper! :)

:D
189. PBG00
PP I'm near jupiter..I thought you were at the airport
Looks like there have been 16 storms to develop off the southeast coast in July and August on that 150 year map. Have others developed further north or could this one be the farthest north of the bunch to develop this early?



now you will have that damned song going through your head the rest of the day.... i KNOW i will! LOL
Guys, I check in occassionally, since I am not an expert but I am so amazed at the knowledge you offer. People like me with livestock, cats, dogs, kids, and other things like to stay informed. We HATE what the storms do, but want as much notice as possible. It takes two trips to haul everything to a safe place though that has only been necessary once -with Ivan since we are further inland than most. We stuck it out that time - we won't again - it was just too frightening and violent.

I need to update that PBG00. I moved up to Palm Beach Gardens last month and I work in Jupiter.
195. PBG00
Thel not the song..The hair
196. IKE
Great song/stupid video....thanks for the link!!!!

GO GETTUM ST!!!!!!!
197. PBG00
Hmm PP I am in the gardens as well
ok, folks. House is clean already, guess instead of relaxing until company arrives Thursday I will run the prelim parts of "the drill". Don't think this is going to push as far off the coast as I hope it will...
Moved into San Merano in Mirasol. Where you at?
201. PBG00
PP you have mail Post when you get it
I like it much better up here in the Gardens.
204. PBG00
Me too..We spend meny nightd doin the flag football thing at the park
I noticed the same thing about the Africa wave JP. I guess it will have to trek further west and hold it together before anyone takes it seriously in terms of a possible threat.
jphurricane thanks for that question.
Afternoon CW. :) I think you will be ok, It should stay off shore. That is my opinion right now, but don't anyone let their guard down on my opinion.

Also, for the storm tracker in all of us.

StormJunkie.com Quick Links

See ya'll later.
I dont want to give ST a hard time either.... but it is real hard with his "written in stone" comments! LOL
The Africa wave needs to get to at least 35 to 40W. If it is still together then, then it will be worthy of watching. Not to mention, I hate trying to watch those waves when they are not in to the Goes East view yet. Sat updates every three or six hours stink :)
Don't worry ya'll, ST will make more written in stone predictions. That is just the nature of the beast. I do not think we can change him, but we can accept him and have a little fun with it. You should have seen him imitating the NWS discussions and outlooks last year. lol.

SJ
we are two systems ahead of 2004.....and 3 behind 2005.

2006 is a mixture....
its more like a 2005 start, and a 2003 July and a 2004 august...

213. PBG00
Don't talk the talk if ya can't walk the walk..This is all in jest ST knows that..We don't care if he's wrong but when he screams at us all what idiots we are...well..give us our little happy dance.
I think they said NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AUGUST GS.

Don't worry ya'll, he will find some way to justify it :) Nature of the beast.

Back to work.
Posted By: PBG00 at 12:25 PM AST on July 18, 2006.
Don't talk the talk if ya can't walk the walk..This is all in jest ST knows that..We don't care if he's wrong but when he screams at us all what idiots we are...well..give us our little happy dance.


Hey, i totally agree with you on the insults...STORMTOP, gave me some pretty mean insults at times....but now he's wrong, it will maybe give him a chance to realise that he needs to come better than how he's doing now...

Hey gulfscots, when I woke up this a.m. my hair looked like that lead singer (mike score?)--and I am in the FL panhandle--is it a sign about the Flock of Seagulls??????
Deadly heat wave may linger until weekend

Cheryl Kennedy had just one word to describe the stagnant, sticky, downright dense heat that blanketed the downtown business district and"Insanity. Insanity!" she said. most of the nation. More
not sure what to make of td2..... it is getting stretched so badly.... and it almost appears to have two circulations?

in this current condition, i see little chance of much intensification.......

thoughts?
it is definitely stretched out along the old front, and the center is indistinct. so it will take some time to intensify.
thel, I have kinda thought that for the past 30 hrs or so, but I just do not see how the S portion could be anohter circulation....
td2 seems to be heading off to the nne at at much faster pace than 5 knots.......
There is only one well defined circulation at this point and TD2 is slowly intensifying. It is battling southerly shear and dry air in the west half of the storm, so there shouldn't be any rapid strengthening.
12Z WRF says direct hit on Hatteras.



Black clouds out the window, and loud thunder, as sub-tropical land depression #1.3 is hitting Houston.
Now THIS is classic right here:

Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:33 AM GMT on July 09, 2006.
StormTop can ease everyones mind their will be nothing forming in the tropics for the next 10 days....all data and atmospheric charts contiue to shoe high shear all over and thwe african dust are in pools coming better organized and it will sure limit the tropical activity...people stormtop was right all along i predicted 14 storms this year and i also said that was stretching it a bit...people this forecast is written in stone no activity to speak of for thwe next 10 days....i have my reasoning if you would like to know email me at stormchaser_21@hotmail.com...........sorry folks and saint keep watching your blogs lol....StormTop

Posted By: quakeman55 at 3:47 AM GMT on July 09, 2006.
Okay that does it, as soon as TD 2 forms from that CATL wave, or anything else that forms between now and July 18, I will keep rubbing that in StormTop's face again and again.

Screw Stormtop. He's up past his bedtime again.



And guess what day it is? Ha! IN YO FACE, STORMTOP!! Who da man?? Who da man?? Who da man?? :-P :-D :-)

Just HAD to do that, haha
it prob isnt a 2nd circ, just sorta looked that way.......

the HH's should be on the scene in a couple hours...... guess we'll just have to wait and see what they find......
A front moved off the east coast of the United States and most of it began to dissipate. But the southern portion of the front remained intact and stalled. This allowed the former front, now separated into two tropical disturbances, to organize themselves while over the Gulf Stream. The northernmost disturbance quickly organized, but moved into the cold waters of the North Atlantic before it could become a tropical depression. Because of the weak steering currents, the southern disturbance slowly drifted south and organized itself to be designated the second tropical cyclone of the season, after over a month of inactivity.
boy, 10 days from July 9...looks like TD2 just came in under the wire.
228. PBG00
bbl..gotta run some errands
Hopefully we get a quick shot of north swizell in the armpit
fernandina bch FL/GA border
any surfers out there?
"12Z WRF says direct hit on Hatteras."

looks like it almost wanted to head up chesapeake bay! LOL
There's no second circulation to the south - at least not at the surface. Maybe a mid level circulation, but you can see the lower level clouds spinning around the center right through the area that appears to be turning in the mid-upper levels. RGB Loop shows it quite well.
Ed: ditto, it is raining hard near the Galleria, t-storm warnings out all over
Looks like Westerly shear, not Southerly. Its not looking all that bad, westside looks alittle anemic, but other then that I think its on its way to TS Beryl.
whats the record for the "LONGEST" TD? this storm may be 1,500 miles long before long! LOL
before we bash ole ST...i think we must ask ourselves...was his "written in stone" done in dissappearing chisel..if so...then...we...untrained as we are...(any "trained" prognosticator should be able to forecast the tropics a month in advance, trouble is ST is the only "trained" one)might have misinterpreted what ole ST said. I bow to his skills and stand amazed in his pressence.
237. OBXER
Thelmores it is not showing a direct hit on Hatteras it shows it being offshore and that makes all the difference in the world.Trust me i live on Ocracoke just south of Hatteras.
folks, let's not obsess about old STORMY - we have a TD (soon to be a TS) to keep us busy..
"Thelmores it is not showing a direct hit on Hatteras it shows it being offshore and that makes all the difference in the world."

the 12z wrf
does show a direct hit on hatteras......

but i dont believe it! ;)

does anybody see any hint of a nw movement, now or in the future?
This blog in particular would be so much more informative if one did not have to constantly shift through the garbage for a few nuggets of worthwhile information. The petulant comments from so many people and the incredible immaturity, exhibited so clearly in gross misspellings and lack of knowledge of even a rudimentary level of grammatical correctness, just ruins this as a source of worthwhile information. In this American economy one usually finds that items are priced at a level commensurate with their perceived level of value. It is called supply and demand in Econ. 101. The price discrepancy between what Wunderground charges annually and what Accuweather charges annually speaks volumes regarding the perceived value of the two services by the sector of the public willing to pay for such services.

When the blog is led off by the services head meteorologist writing something like this one just has to wonder As we can see from the historical plot of the 15 tropical cyclones to form in July and August off the Carolina coast in July and August
Dont forget this part of the discussion:
THE
NAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR
TO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR.

That Upper Low may play an important role in movement. So NW is not out of the question yet.
you know, if i went into a blog that i felt was "immature", "rude" and had "grammatical errors"..... i doubt i would even waste my time posting in it! ;)

my advice, take what you can, throw away the rest, and keep the "bashing" to yourself! ;)
Also keep tabs on turtle's blog....Link...for the latest on the recon flight.
thanks 03......
folks, let's not obsess about old STORMY - we have a TD (soon to be a TS) to keep us busy..


aint nobody obsessing...just some good ole American funnin with the boy....

Seriously, I feel the main use of this blog is entertainment. It's the "Discovery Channel" of stormcasting. You are entertained and hopefully learn something in the process. When someone stands up and makes an outlandish statement it adds to the entertainment value. I don't think anyone takes what St says seriously, but it does make for entertaining reading
hey Dowser01, you're welcome to stick with Hype U Weather - I for one have found excellent information and discussion here, plus lots of entertainment..
Hi, Everyone!

I am a newcomer to the blog, and have been enjoying it a lot. I have always been fascinated with storms (in Florida, they tend to take up a lot of news, too), which will certainly tweak your interest. I am learning more of the technical side to the storms, which makes it even mre interesting. Let's hope that this is not a repeat of the 04 season. Happy Hunting!
jp....exactly my point....
hey GulfScotsman, the forecast intensitification does indeed have this becoming Beryl
Hey jp, Quake, where's Stormtop today? Didn't he say there'd be NO tropical activity 'till August? I guess this TD will just have to wait a week then - right? ;-)
Dowser, that was an articulate piece of writing!

I'm SO sorry that this blog in general and its inhabitants in particular have failed to meet your expectations. Now that you know this, feel free to leave.

The world wide web is a large place. I'm sure there are more highbrow accomodations that can afford you the opportunity to associate with persons of a more sophisticated ilk.
welcome StormTrackerFL
sure thing, but I couldn't resist a quick jab. I figure his ego should be able to parry it. In any event, I just checked the sat pic and it looks like TD2 is starting to fire up again. Earlier it looked like it might be dissipating a bit, but I see moderate to heavy thunderstorms starting to fire up around the center of convection. The system is still in moderate shear, but it looks like she really wants to become Beryl.
Beryl looks good (I'm jumping the gun a bit on the name). My forecast:

Tropical Depression Two
Amateur Hurricane Center
www.theahc.webhop.net
Advisory 1 - 1:00PM July 18, 2006
Written by AHC Forecaster Colby

The non-tropical low off the South Carolina coast has sustained solid thhunderstorms around the center for the past six hours, and data from buoys shows no temperature difference across the storm (a temperature difference indicates a frontal storm, which are never tropical). Therefore, the storm is upgraded to Tropical Depression Two.

The winds steering T.D. 2 are quite weak, and the depression is not expected by myself or the NHC to move much at all for the next couple of days. The forecast shows a meandering to the west-northwest for the next two days, along what little steering there is, followed by a turn northeast and rapid motion out to sea. A breif clipping of the North Carolina coast is shown in the forecast, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the track.

The waters under TD2 are plenty warm, and shear is dead flat zero. Therefore...strengthening to just under hurricane strength is expected. It is certainly possible that the storm could breifly become a hurricane, but this scenario is really only likely if TD2 stays well out to sea.

Initial: 32.5N 74.0W 30kt
12 Hour: 33.0N 74.5W 35kt
24 Hour: 34.5N 75.0W 45kt
48 Hour: 35.0N 75.5W 55kt...clipping the NC coasts
72 Hour: 37.0N 74.7W 60kt...offshore
96 Hour: 38.5N 71.0W 55kt
120 Hour: 42.0N 63.0W 45kt...becoming extratropical
articulate writing, like beauty, is in the eyes of the beholder..
TD 02 is looking good:



Dowser, I couldn't agree with you more. So.... lets grab some brewski's and head out on my bass boat and ride out some of them thar breakers cause its going to be padilarium when that cane comes ashore! WOOOOH WHEEE! CANE CRUSIN IS NEE SLAPPN FUN! DOGGIE!
Clearly open and receptive, as a community of bloggers, to constructive criticism also it would seem. I suppose if I had known that the owner's of the blog were present and would be so welcoming I might have also added the word childish. I will lurk around and get what I can from here as my interests are greater than my level of irritation for weather news related to the East Coast. Too bad it is so hard to get the worthwhile from amongst all of the waste.
hey Colby, thanks for the update - I'm thinking Beryl makes Cat 1 by week's end..
I don't think anyone takes what St says seriously, but it does make for entertaining reading

That's not quite correct...he takes himself VERY seriously.

(can't believe I'm jumping in on the ST bashing...lol)
Welcome StormTrackerFL. These guys and gals are great up here. They will answer any question that you have and are just great to "talk" to.

One piece of advice, don't abbreviate your name by referring to yourself as ST! (LOL) WE have a StormTop that gets called that. If you see a post that refers to ST in a negative way (not that it would EVER happen), it's not you they're talking about.

By the way, several bloggers have awesome blogs that have any link you ever needed to follow tropical storms (weatherguy03, stormjunkie, turtlehurricane, etc...). I'm relatively new and can attest that this place is AWESOME!!!
IN seVA/neNC td#2 was the top story at noon. The weatherman really explaine everything well. Like how the storm is going to turn west(look at the vis satelite, you will see what is going to push it west). Also, the fact that the system is becoming elongated is bad, because that is the start os some outflow.
Everything above is what the weatherman said.
BTW im a long time lurker, first time poster.
Indeed weather456 TD 2 looking good also in IR imagery.

Dowser01, your churlish posts are becoming tiresome and tedious - please either contribute something to the discussion of TD2 or move on..
It looks like it's already starting to pick up speed in a N or NNE heading.
jphurricane2006, yep the NHC said that long stream of convection is an upper level low enchancing outflow to the south

there is no doubt...it is organizing
jphurricane2006, I remember you said at one time...you wanted to know how this blog is when we have something to track...well this is it....
Dowser, Undoubtedly I consent by manner of your examination as to the aforementioned juvenile ranting of this situate. We should have the site tailored more towards the Austere, Self-Righteous, Self-indulgent, Dispassionate, Obdurate, Inconsiderate, Narcissistic, Impetuous and Sanctimonious Elitists if you ask me... but aferwards... lets grab some brewski's and get to them canes and head er off and get er done.. WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOODOGGIE! got my shotgun and barometer fixed up last weekend up at the cabin.
I know the main focus is TD2 for obvious reasons, but the EATL wave is starting to look fairly impressive. Looks like it's getting some good convection this afternoon after briefly getting sheared yesterday. Thoughts??
Welcome VirginiaWeather, StormTrakerFL & NewComers...
Ditto of Floodzone's Sentiments, Lots of Good Info & Any Here are willing to answer your questions.

With Some Many New FACES☺ (& those Lurking too),
Feel Free To Add You Name/Location to
Whitewabit's Blog Directory

Check Out Where Your Fellow Bloggers Hail From & With Approaching Storms, We'll Know To Keep The Light On For You.
so is this the start of the tropics heating up????????
I need to go get my dictionary.
Guys here is a real close visible pic of TD 2



This is were the Recon is right now...



jphurricane2006, i think so too, is the shear on its way down?? are there any other models indicating something else that might form any time soon? if there is, please send me the link?
I am so sorry Snowy. Do you think the storm will impact NYC by Saturday as a cat. 5? I sure hope not as I have plans at the beach that day. I do hope Stormtop comes by and gives us his forecast. At least then I would have something that is set in stone and that I am able to rely on. Toodleloo.
The dropsonde reported 1017mb surface pressure.

Storm Name: CYCLONE (02L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 04
Time: 1700Z
Latitude: 30.4N
Longitude: 80.2W
#NAME?
Surface: 1017 mb; Temp: 81F; Dewpt: 74F; N (N/A) @ N/A mph
1000mb height: 489 ft; Temp: 79F; Dewpt: 72F; N (N/A) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 2733 ft; Temp: 73F; Dewpt: 49F; WSW (245) @ 12 mph
850mb height: 5125 ft; Temp: 63F; Dewpt: 38F; NW (305) @ 9 mph
700mb height: 10476 ft; Temp: 50F; Dewpt: -14F; N (350) @ 20 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 20F; Dewpt: -12F; N (405) @ 301 mph
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
SPL 3044N08013W 1714 LST WND 031 AEV 20604 =


1017mb winds: N (N/A) @ N/A mph
914mb winds: SW (220) @ 6 mph
840mb winds: NW (310) @ 10 mph
800mb winds: W (260) @ 5 mph
755mb winds: W (280) @ 13 mph
733mb winds: N (360) @ 12 mph
659mb winds: NW (315) @ 10 mph
656mb winds: NW (305) @ 12 mph
376mb winds: ENE (65) @ 8 mph
Snotly, Can we shoot some of them there Pellikans I see so many of?
anyone thinking TS Beryl yet?
hurricane23 is that from the center
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO... LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART




Unfortunately, FLweather I think the long lull is over.
Iam gonna keep posting what the RECON finds weather456.
I have to admit that I did not think that Ivvest 97L would achieve TD status today. I admit to that mistake, unlike some others that can't admit to there mistakes....
report is well outside main storm.
RECON Turning towards what definately looks like a TS.

I see the plane is up and investigating TD2.

Just stopping in. Stop back by on my break.

StormJunkie.com has the forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more to help you stay ahead of the storm.

See ya later.
SJ
I agree...last night it was poor..this morning TD 2.....
hurricane23, where did u download that google earth file.....i would like to know
This caught me off guard....this thing definitely looks like a T.S. more like a strong T.S. 60 mph anyone? .... I think it definitely has a chance of being a hurricane
Dang, pa wont let me shoot the gun yet... says I might shoot my eye out...
my blog has live recon updates now.
23, thanks
On its way to TS Status...

WTNT32 KNHC 181754
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF
ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


the "news" says td2 could become "beryl" by tonight..... source unknown.....
316. IKE
Buoy 41001...new 1:50 pm EDT pressure...30.00 and falling...winds SE @20.
hey can somebody point out the center of circulation for me?
Boy Google Earth Rocks my socks, what isn't it good for?

Two is looking better organized each refresh, what's best guess on when it's going to go TS?
000
WTNT32 KNHC 181754
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
hurricane23, i'm not getting it....the aircratf reconn on google earth
yeah how did you do that on google earth?
RECON GETTING CLOSER....




Keep it up 23 your info and pics are definitely worth reading and looking at.
Now THESE are pictures that are more than acceptable :)
the center looks here to me......

anybody?
I will i hope u guys are enjoying this i promise to do it for all storms.
That sounds good...is there any place we can get those too or is it just some special hookup you got with the NHC? lol
if that is the center...then it better do that forecasted northwest turn soon
recon decending in altitude....
hurricane23 you got wundermail
333. RL3AO
I just glanced thru half of the comments, but if the NHC site is getting heavy traffic for a TD off of the east coast, what will happen when there is a Cat 3 in the Gulf?
I know once the flight is over i'll mail u back.
k thx
hurricane23 can u send me the link, or wherever ur getting the recon updates please?
337. WSI
Hurricane23, not trying to be critical, but do you have permission to post those images here?
thelmores - Looks like you picked out the center of the supporting ULH above the system. My guess is that the surface center is more elongated and slightly SW of there, based on the curl in the low-level convergence bands on the dry west side. I think the deep level system is tilted somewhat towards the NE with increasing height.
Anyways we will know soon enough ;)
Guys just go here.....GOOGLE MAPS RECCO POSITION.
Hurricane23, not trying to be critical, but do you have permission to post those images here?

Its just google earth, not hwind. It only tells location ;)
hurricane23, keep posting like that!!!!



343. WSI
"Its just google earth, not hwind. It only tells location ;)"

Ahh ok. Just saw the copyright stuff, didn't want him to get in trouble or anything. :) No worries.
I noticed that those images are from ImageShack, meaning that they were uploaded from his computer (probably to save them). As far as I know, there are no problems with posting them (some bloggers do this with TWC images so that they can put then here, as images from weather.com are automatically removed).
tumbnails would still be nice guys. The maps are very useful though.
how do you get it to show the clouds and positions
Ok here's the path...


tumbnails would still be nice guys. The maps are very useful though.

Stop trying to control everyone.
When I click on the Google Earth link, I get a satellite shot of the Mississippi Delta area, not the depression.
SXXX50 KNHC 181820
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 18 KNHC
1810. 3130N 07535W 00520 0048 275 009 218 218 011 00589 0000000100
1811 3131N 07533W 00330 0039 270 012 228 228 013 00380 0000000100
1811. 3131N 07531W 00310 0036 272 013 230 230 013 00357 0000000100
1812 3132N 07529W 00294 0033 270 013 234 234 013 00338 0000000100
1812. 3132N 07527W 00269 0031 271 014 236 236 014 00310 0000000000
1813 3133N 07525W 00260 0030 271 014 236 230 014 00301 0000000000
1813. 3133N 07523W 00263 0030 271 014 236 234 015 00304 0000000000
1814 3134N 07522W 00260 0030 272 015 236 232 015 00300 0000000000
1814. 3134N 07520W 00261 0029 270 015 236 232 016 00302 0000000000
1815 3134N 07518W 00262 0030 272 015 236 234 016 00303 0000000000
1815. 3134N 07516W 00262 0029 271 014 236 234 016 00303 0000000000
1816 3134N 07514W 00260 0029 263 013 236 234 014 00300 0000000000
1816. 3135N 07512W 00263 0029 272 013 238 232 013 00304 0000000000
1817 3135N 07510W 00262 0029 278 012 240 234 012 00303 0000000000
1817. 3135N 07508W 00261 0029 284 012 238 234 012 00300 0000000000
1818 3136N 07506W 00262 0028 283 012 238 234 012 00301 0000000000
1818. 3136N 07505W 00261 0028 280 013 236 232 013 00300 0000000000
1819 3137N 07503W 00260 0028 279 014 238 230 014 00299 0000000000
1819. 3138N 07501W 00264 0028 281 013 236 226 014 00304 0000000000
1820 3139N 07501W 00260 0028 280 011 238 226 011 00299 0000000000
yeah i get the same thing as michael...
I say what will likely be Beryl will only be a problem for the boating industry up N. I don't see anywhere else it can go. Any thoughts on this?

SJ
yeah the link links to louisiana
RL3AO

It is most likely not due to traffic, but some other issue at the server location. They may be doing work on them, and they are not all fully functional.

Speaking of things being down, the Melbourne radar was struck by lighting about 1:15pm today and is down.
WHICH ONE OF THEM D@MN NUMBERS IS WINDSPEED! LOL
Just throwing my two cent in turtle !)

They can take it or leave it, does not matter too much to me as I have broadband.

Have a nice day.
Even GNU free software has a "copyright". It requires free distribution of the source code under most conditions. The terms of usage under a copyright can vary, and potentially allow for free distribution for non-commercial use. Just because it was the copyright notice does not necessarily mean it cannot be posted here.

By law, it is the responsibility of the copyright holder to enforce the terms of the copyright.
358. WSI
"Even GNU free software has a "copyright"

Hey, I was just checking. :) Like I said, didn't want to see anyone get in trouble.
This may or may not be a little off topic but...
I just came from Cape Lookout after being there a week. There is almost no water between the barrier island and the mainland at Beaufort. There were boats running aground in the middle of marked channels that were only 2 feet deep. What would the result of a Cat 3+ storm hitting this area? Would it compound the situation or actually perform some mother-nature type dredging?

btw: Hello to everybody. Just found the site and it looks great.
hurricane23

The link you are giving is not what you are posting. You are posting graphic coordinates of the recon, your link on the other hand sends me to google maps for NOLA.

You are also hosting them on imageshack. Care to explain? Inquiring minds would love to know where you are getting your useful info.
SXXX50 KNHC 181830
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 19 KNHC
1820. 3141N 07500W 00262 0028 275 011 238 214 011 00301 0000000000
1821 3142N 07500W 00262 0028 281 009 238 212 010 00301 0000000000
1821. 3144N 07459W 00260 0028 279 010 238 218 011 00299 0000000000
1822 3145N 07459W 00262 0028 274 008 236 228 009 00301 0000000000
1822. 3147N 07459W 00262 0028 274 007 234 232 007 00301 0000000000
1823 3148N 07458W 00262 0028 241 006 230 230 006 00301 0000000000
1823. 3150N 07457W 00261 0027 253 004 230 230 005 00300 0000000000
1824 3150N 07456W 00261 0027 278 006 230 230 006 00299 0000000000
1824. 3151N 07454W 00263 0026 272 008 230 230 008 00301 0000000000
1825 3152N 07453W 00260 0027 283 008 230 230 008 00298 0000000000
1825. 3153N 07451W 00263 0027 280 008 232 228 008 00301 0000000000
1826 3154N 07449W 00261 0027 278 007 232 228 007 00299 0000000000
1826. 3155N 07448W 00261 0027 276 008 232 228 009 00299 0000000000
1827 3155N 07446W 00262 0026 282 006 232 228 007 00299 0000000000
1827. 3156N 07445W 00261 0026 276 006 230 230 007 00298 0000000000
1828 3157N 07443W 00263 0026 271 007 230 230 008 00300 0000000000
1828. 3158N 07441W 00262 0026 269 008 230 230 008 00299 0000000000
1829 3159N 07440W 00261 0026 268 009 230 230 009 00298 0000000000
1829. 3200N 07438W 00261 0026 275 009 230 230 010 00298 0000000000
1830 3201N 07437W 00262 0025 272 010 230 230 010 00298 0000000000
hurricane23, the images you are posting are google earth software..where can i find the KMZ file that puts on the RECON path in google earth software...not google maps
WSI - It was a valid point, I was just passing on my knowledge of copyright law. I have held copyrights in my name for software, and I allowed for public distribution.

Of course, there are probaly rules for this site that also need to be considered; maybe somebody can point out from this rules of this site whether these images are allowed or not. I checked clause 4 for the image gallery, and that seems to place the burden of any copyright violation on the poster.
yes i wanna know that too!
next advisory probably will be a tropical storm.
it has a chance to become a hurricane?


xsub, I think there would be some erosion of channel areas, as well as filling in in some areas. This is just my geuss, but I don't think you could say one way or another without knowing which direction the storm was heading, if it came in at high or low tide, and lots of contour info.

StormJunkie.com-forecast models, marine data, imagery, wind data, preparedness info and much more. These are some of the best free educational, military, and government data sites on the web.

SJ
"two bottles of rum for anyone who can find only ONE center of circulation in this beasty."

thats what i said earlier gulf.... we got something STRANGE goin on here! LOL
Hi xSubmariner. On the mother-nature dredging, it would probably depend on the wind direction. Here on the barrier island in FL south of Cape Canavaral, the port and Sebastian inlet need periodic dredging, otherwise they would fill with sand. This was told to me be an Ocean Engineering professor from FL Institute of Technology.

There is a narrow strip of the island north of Patrick AFB here that got overwashed by Floyd. I asked him if a direct hit would have opened a new inlet, and his answer was maybe, but it would have just filled in again over time.
If you're posting information which in any way concerns weather related public safety, then don't worry about any copyright law.
we have 38 knots, 1015 pressure link
Ok thel, I'll ask the question. Just fill me in when I get home from work.

Is there any chance that any of TD2 and this stalled front get left behind and develop a third system out of it? THe first one being the thingy (likely a sub tropical storm) that went N earlier in the week.
It not only has a chance to become a hurricane, it has a 35% chance of doing so. Link (it even has a 5% chance of a major hurricane)
I have a feeling we won't be seeing ST again for a while =]
is that 38knots sustained (44mph)?

if so, we have beryl.....
where's hurricane 23 with the updates
"I have a feeling we won't be seeing ST again for a while =]"

i wouldnt COUNT on that! LOL
"Posted By: Weather456 at 3:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
But now....most people are sure dancing because you[ST] are wrong."


I've been dancing everytime ST is wrong and all I can say is "Boy, are my feet tired"

Boomer
I wrote this thing off around 2:00 AM EDT early this morning, it looked really pathetic then...now look at it.
NW quadrant has some very good out flow, so is all the south
GS,
Too many humps? It's not Beryl, it's Nessie!
Zap
LOOKS LIKE DOUBLE BARREL BERYL! LOL
can somebody please explain the "two humps"?
I'm just looking at Floater - AVN Color Infrared Loop at Link . Just in the NE corner of the frame I can see the ULL swirling, looking vigorous and like it's headed west.

What is the likely effect of the ULL if it passes to the south of the centre of circulation of TD2?

Weather here is clear, but with some clouds building to the north - spin-off, I suppose.
Wave @ the Verde Islands is firing convection again.
Is that an eye forming?
"What is the likely effect of the ULL if it passes to the south of the centre of circulation of TD2?"

apparently, this is what is "forecasted" to provide some nnw or nw movement...... guess we'll see.....
the EATL wave is still holding together...when this hits more favorable waters....we cud have TD 3
StormTop was aying that the low was going to sneak up on the disturbance and rip it apart so will tat still happen? will the low rip it apart and no more tropical cyclone!
BahaHurican - If ULL passes too close to system, it interferes with ULH over the system and creates shear. If it passes far enough south, it can enhance outflow.
the EATL wave is still intack.....this will be a player in the future....all that wave has done is loose convection...the shape and structure has remain the same for over 36 hours.....
and winds remain at 38 Knots
ULL, will not destroy system. It may help give it an outflow channel to the south. Which would be good.
000
URNT11 KNHC 181905
97779 19034 30332 73200 02000 12016 23238 /0008
41320
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 12

how do you get 38knots earlier, and now 1008.... on the above???


WOW!!!!any one look at the current shear maps...scary!!!!!!!!!!!!

massive bubbles of 0-10knots shear
How to decode Dropsonde It's toward the bottom.

As far as copyright Dr Masters has overlayed things on google earth in the past. Public domain (NASA, NOAA, etc) & things you create with such is all good. If it's a copy from another weathersite, not good. Many of the times copyrighted things from other weather sites won't even post. Hot linking is bad if it's not from public domain. I suspect it is all good with 23's maps. He was posting them in his own blog Last time recon was out...
Afternoon all,

Having a tremendous electrical storm here in Cape Coral (west of Ft. Myers, FL) and have a question for all you experts (or anyone who knows!)...I've always heard that the seconds between the sound of thunder and the sight of lightning indicates the distance the lightning (and therefore danger) is from one's location. My question is: does the decibel of sound indicate anything about proximity or strength or anything? Sometimes there are many long seconds between the thunder and the lightning but then it is extremely loud. Just wondering. We have a healthy respect for Mother Nature's electricity down here and try to be indoors when she's flashin'. And, yes, my computer is on battery backup. Thanks.
thelmores, /0008.....is 1008 mbar

and 23238

232 is the direction
38 the wind speed
different location 33.2N 73.2E

38 knots 1008 mb

2 pm was
31.6N 75.3E
000
URNT11 KNHC 181905
97779 19034 30332 73200 02000 12016 23238 /0008
41320
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 12

19034- Time
30332- Latitiude
73200- Logitude
02000- atlatitude
12016- previous wind direction and speed
23238- current wind direction and speed
/0008-pressure (1008mbr)
atlatitude
spell check- altitude
TD 2 center at 33 N 73 W. HWind and satellite data both confirm this. Recon heading north, winds near calm at center. I expect the winds to be in the eastern quadrant.

Recon has just found winds of 30 kt flight level in northern quadrant.
Well Gang -


CIRA has this storm already listed as Tropical Storm Beryl. I don't know if they're jumping the gun or if they're just quicker at updating their website than the NHC. Anyway, here it is:

Link
> My question is: does the decibel of sound
> indicate anything about proximity or strength or
> anything?

I don't know if one lightning bolt can be stronger than another, but the volume will have nothing to do with proximity. A loud sound will travel through the air just as fast as a quiet sound. The speed of sound is constant, it doesn't vary by volume.
FROM TURTLE.....

TD 2 center at 33 N 73 W. HWind and satellite data both confirm this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.shtml?

JPhurricane try that site address
TD 02 is over 0knots shear

000
URNT11 KNHC 181911
97779 19084 30333 73408 02000 07030 22228 /0010
40325
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 13
> CIRA has this storm already listed as Tropical
>Storm Beryl. I don't know if they're jumping the
>gun or if they're just quicker at updating their
>website than the NHC.

I find this happening often with local news sources. For example, a local news station out of Orange County already had a story up about the Tropical Depression in the Atlantic at 7:38AM eastern time. However, CIRA seems like it's a more reputable source, so maybe they do update it sooner?
FLAnative

I might not be a weather genius, but sound I know. The time between the flash and the sound of thunder is a factor of distance vs speed of sound at that particular altitude above sea level. The decibel level can be affected by various things. The initial level created by the strike when is then attenuated by objects in the path of the sound wave such as trees, hills, buildings and distance. The decibel level is not a very good indicator of strength unless your in a flat area with few obstructions.
redefined- what orange county news station (i might know hat you are talking about)
wind shear is decreasing by 10 knots almost over all the atlantic.....that wave out there has alot of chances......
CIRA is a division of NOAA - the same bunch of guys that run the NHC. It doesn't sound like a bunch of rank amatures who don't know what they're doing.
i think "cira" is basically say that "it will" be TS Beryl within the next 24hrs......
Oh by the way Daniel is a hurricane now
jphurricane...try refreshing the page
FLAnative - Not necessarily easy to answer...given a fixed delay between the lightning bolt and the thunder, the intensity of the sound waves could depend on wind direction, intensity, height and size of the lightning bolt, exsitence and intensity of any intervening precipitation, and local topography and effects of buildings and other structures that can affect wave reflection, refraction and diffraction. If you hear thunder, I would play it safe and seek shelter. Of course, being FLAnative, I am sure you know that.

A 5 million dollar mansion burned nearly to the ground very close to where I live just a few days ago, due to an intense lightning strike. Fortunately the inhabitants were on vacation, but it didn't help the firemen that the hurricane shutters were up.
I wasn't sure if that's what CIRA was saying or not. It's got Beryl as a TS on their real-time maps, so I suspected they were talking about real-time data. If you notice, they color-code the various regions within their grids to indicate probabilities of formation.
The loudness and duration of the resulting thunder is dependant on the strength of the lightning surge current.

From Weather Elements: Thunder: A Child of Lightning

That page has a quick explanation of wavelength and pitch variances in lightning.
If this is a storm, looking at Satellite its barely one. Unless we see some good winds on the east, no upgrade. Actually the center is close to being exposed. good news is that except for outbanks I can't see this going near us.
000
URNT11 KNHC 181905
97779 19034 30332 73200 02000 12016 23238 /0008
41320
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 12

19034- Time
30332- Latitiude
73200- Logitude
02000- atlatitude
12016- previous wind direction and speed
23238- current wind direction and speed
/0008-pressure (1008mbr)




That is not quite right.

12016- wind direction and speed
23238- temp and dewpoint
Proximity to the lightening bolt will make it louder. Although, the speed of sound is constant it needs a medium to travel through; air is not a good medium. Therefore, as the distance from the sound source increases the amplitude of the sound waves will be diminished; the sound's energy becomes more dispersed the further it gets..until it is so dispersed you can't hear it. If the volume had nothing to do with proximity we would hear everything in our hearing range no matter how far or close
Native, here are some things I've learned and observed about lightning.

-7 seconds = 1 mile

-1 or 2 very quick, short flashes of lightning (which yields a shorter duration of thunder) is indicative of a "younger" TStorm. This means that its mature (most vigorous) stage is near.

-Lightning that traverses the sky in a sprawling manor is indicative of an "old", usually past its prime TStorm. This lightning is what I call anvil lightning as it is primarily cloud to cloud, tens of thousands of feet above the surface. This yields the LLLOOOONNNNGGGG rumbling thunder that goes on and on.

*Yesterday I was in the yard observing and approaching impulse. The line of TStorms was still some 5 to 10 miles to my north. All of a sudden there was a bright flash to my SE (well ahead of the TStorm). It struck a mile or so to my SE, yielding first a loud "crackle" of thunder followed by the long rumble of thunder for probably 10 to 15 seconds. This was a bolt of lightning which most likely came off the anvil of one of the older "parent" storms behind the "new generation" storm which was directly in front of me. (Complexes of TStorms like the one I was watching yesterday produce "offspring" created by the warm air forced upward by the "parents" cooler downdraft.)

I am by no means a professional. Like I said, these are just some of my observations from years of Storm Watching.
AshleyDillo - Nice link, a keeper.
jp..here's the lastest, since you cant get it...

man, it almost looks like the "upper convection" is splitting from the lower convection.....

what is going on here?
txweather is right, TD2 is really struggling right now with ssw shear and dry air. It was in better shape six hours ago when the shear appeared a bit less over the core. I see no sign the shear will lessen any today.
"not a very good indicator of strength unless your in a flat area with few obstructions."

Uh oh, this perfectly describes Cape Coral.

Thank you all who replied - very interesting- and for the link. Yes, shelter is the idea regardless....
TD 02 is breaking off from the front
hmm that still says 1831 GMT, is that the current time?
I think that the CIRA site is just saying that there is a tropical cyclone there, which would include a TD. In the EPac, looks like another one could be forming: TD 6 and then Emilia. Also, Daniel is now forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Wasn't this supposed to be the quiet basin this year?
jp...they must be finish...i saw the same thing when they went out in alberto and almost-berly last month
ya that cyclone symbol, which happens to be the symbol for a tropical storm, only represents that there is a tropical cyclone in that area, not a tropical storm.
SWLA - me too, watching for years that is...an interesting feature of this storm today was the preliminary wind was circling. I say that because leaves were blowing up suddenly in inverse cyclones. It was fascinating but then the lighting developed and it has been the LOUDEST I have ever heard. Truly. In all my years of Florida summer rainy seasons the loudest. Thus my questions. Thanks again, all.
>redefined- what orange county news station (i might know hat you are talking about)

WESH TV. Their website says it's channel 2?
thelmores, thats indicative of shear. What you see are thunderstorms blowing and trying to wrap but getting pushed off to the north.
EATL wave sure is a player
so does that mean the COC is between the "upper" and "lower" convection blobs?
thelmores, just watch the visible satellite loop and you'll easily see the surface circulation
Native, another thing I just remembered. Seems like the temperature of the lightning is different at different stages of the TStorm. I believe that a "younger" TStorm's lightning is cooler than a mature/dying TStorm. That is one reason that the thunder in a younger storm "cracks" as opposed the more of a "boom" or more bass rumble of an older storm.

I'm not 100% sure on this though, if someone has more knowledge on this please let us know.
Hi all. I just got back from school. Is the HH information back yet? If not when should they be? Thanks.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:42 PM AST on July 18, 2006.
wind shear from what? the shear is only 5kts in the area, has to be another explanation.


Totally a agree, there barely any wind shear.

You are not crazy, there is spining in the lower levels of the EATL wave....cant wait to see what the NHC will say 5PM
Its looking for a center within its south most circulations. Slightly south and east of the initial GFDL. Which would make more sense considering yesterdays observations. There is some shear but I dont see any of the initial motion predicted in the models.
I think the EATL wave is holding together longer than most of us thought it would. It has an excellent signature on the satellite and some of the convection is starting to re-fire. If this keeps up for a while and especially if it builds up more convection, it could become TD 3.
Small ULL to the SW of system is creating enough S to SW shear....Link Its shutting off the outflow to the SW. Thus the west side does not look as good.

You can see it also here...Link
I see that circulation too jp. And thanks for the reply.
we have to wait for the 5pm advisory
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2006.
wind shear from what? the shear is only 5kts in the area, has to be another explanation.

This must be a case of the wind shear maps being outdated or in error. Perhaps the trough is stronger than is shown, maybe it is beginning to be reinforced by the second trough over the Ohio valley? Perhaps the ULL is having an effect at the mid-levels not easily seen in the WV loops?...regardless of the cause, shear seems to be the only possible explanation.
hmm Tropical Storm 06W..
aside from TD 02...what do you guys think about shear across the entire atlantic, c'bbean and Gulf...
Recon reported 30Kts Max wind with min ppp of 1008mb

URNT12 KNHC 181945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/19:15:40Z
B. 33 deg 08 min N
073 deg 17 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 180 deg 008 nm
F. 070 deg 032 kt
G. 340 deg 013 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 22 C/ 200 m
J. 23 C/ 199 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.05 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:08:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Thanks weatherguy and Hawkeye. My mention of shear was an off the cup remark and I was beginning to doubt.(Hey i'm known for little errors). Also, from the soundings, there is some very dry aid with RH well below 50% in 500-700mb level.
03 - Now that you mention it, I can see that small ULL SW of the system it looks somewhat elongated SW to NW...that would help explain the upper levels of the TD moving north more quickly than the low levels...the effect of that small ULL SW of the system probably doesn't extend very far, so if the TD moves away from that small ULL the current shear could be just a short-term effect.
Now keep in mind that the recon hasn't yet sampled the entire storm, and I don't think it's yet reached the strongest convection, where there very well could be tropical storm-force winds. They showed the recon path on TWC just now and showed it go through the center and off to the NW. The strongest convection is to the N and NE of the center.
i beleive July will spawn one more system...all the conditions are there......
correction: that small ULL SW of the system it looks somewhat elongated SW to NE...
I definitely agree with you 456. And when it does, it'll be one more thing to rub into ST's face, haha.

BTW, I thought he'd say he'd tell us when to worry about something forming. I didn't see him telling us about this one :-P
contrary to popular belief, the speed of sound is anything but constant. Sound waves travel by the colision of molecules in the medium they are traveling. The denser the material the faster sound travels. Have your friend bang on a railroad track with a hammer while you put your ear to it some distance away. You'll here the sound come through the rail long before the sound traveling through the air. Temperature also affects the speed of sound as well as altitude. These effects are slight when traveling through the air but have great effect when traveling through things such as water. Different temperature gradients in the water cause sound to speed up or slow down which causes sound to bend. This is why submarines can hide from surface ship sonars. We make a map of sound using depths, salinity and temperature of the water we are traveling in.
In case someone hasn't said it yet, NEW POST.
The high on the South Carolina/North Carolina border seems to be dropping a little down - but not much stronger high pressure from behind is deforming the front to the south I think the center will emerge on the southern end due east of kings bay or get squeezed out towards the N?