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Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. emcf30

The two lows. The one over the Southern US coast is creating some havoc this morning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LONG BEACH...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR BAY ST.
LOUIS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
Quoting weatherxtreme:


I think so too, don't think it will be a year of the fish though do you? j/k
i think so east coast going to have more cold fronts coming soon this cold front coming down from the north to kick tropical storm Bret out to sea
1003. ncstorm
From Crownweather:

Bret
Bret is tracking very slowly to the east this morning according to fixes from reconnaissance aircraft. The latest track guidance is forecasting that Bret will start tracking slowly north-northeastward by tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds to its southeast. From Wednesday and beyond, a trough of low pressure tracking off of the coast of northeastern United States will cause Bret to increase in forward speed as it tracks northeastward. The latest track guidance has shifted to the west a little bit, however, even with that Bret poses no direct threat to the southeastern United States and it looks likely at this time that it will pass well east of the southeastern United States this week.

For the second model run in a row, the European model is forecasting that a tropical wave now located near 30 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic will develop into a tropical cyclone near the southeastern Bahamas next Monday and then track northwestward just off of the coast of eastern Florida during the middle part of next week. Yesterday afternoon’s European model guidance forecasted that this same tropical wave would wait to develop until it is in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday. The GFS model does nothing with this tropical wave and the latest Canadian model forecast forecasts development of this tropical wave well north of Puerto Rico next Monday.

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
its going to be a fish storm!! i think we are going to see a few fish storms this year
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.
east coast will be sAfe for the next two weeks from any hurricanes or tropical storms
Quoting BahaHurican:
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned
severe weather for northeast later
1008. HCW
still really early I have a felling august and september going to crank it up a notch are two
I added a couple of local reports re: Bret to my blog, if anybody's interested. Seems Abaconians were pretty much caught off guard. Still haven't heard any word from the northern cays as yet.
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


1012. GetReal



Interesting spin near Bay St. Louis, MS. Luckily this is not 100 miles further south in GOM.
1013. emcf30
Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I added a couple of local reports re: Bret to my blog, if anybody's interested. Seems Abaconians were pretty much caught off guard. Still haven't heard any word from the northern cays as yet.
good news bret going out to sea will not hit the east coast!
in your own mind its not a fish it will be a fish in mind dont forget walkers cay (major pit stop for boats coming in from the north)
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
severe weather for northeast later

Look out Milwaukee. Muscle Schoals roasting in the sun of the dog days of summer.
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
east coast will be sAfe for the next two weeks from any hurricanes or tropical storms
That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoting jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoting is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoting him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned
Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.


Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.


Check again, it has been affecting the Bahamas for half a day.
1020. emcf30
Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.
Quoting BahaHurican:
That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.





thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol
Quoting emcf30:
Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.





doing well
Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix
Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol



sorry if this is hiting land like in the BAHAMA its nota fish
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz
Quoting emcf30:
Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.
I know Walker's and Grand Cays have a few hundred people. Not sure about Strangers and Carter Cays, but I 'd be surprised if not. About 50% of the little cays on the N side of Great and Little Abaco have regular residents.
in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Not a fish, it's only a fish to some people because it is not hitting the USA. But the Bahamians are people too.
1032. emcf30
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret
Quoting islander101010:
sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz
Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol
I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. maybe a tropical depression soon for the Eastern Pacific
fish storms dont affect anybody period. like danielle last year. bret affected the bahamas therefore NOT a fish storm and could still affect bermuda
Quoting emcf30:
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret
Thanks for the correct details, emcf30. Certainly pple from Fox Town to Walker's Cay have been impacted, and I'm sure those at the eastern end of Grand Bahama along with people as far way as Marsh Harbour have been feeling the impacts.

I am just very glad this storm is a minimal tropical storm. Most of those small cays are relatively lowlying, and storm waves / flooding can do quite a bit of damage. But wind damage there under hurricane conditions is all likely to be formidable...
Quoting hunkerdown:
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix
Someone was saying they think there's a chance Bermuda might see some action from Bret. I think BWAwx was praying for 2 - 4 inches of rain... ;o)
i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm
1039. hydrus
Heat wave high and very warm water temps in the gulf...
1040. hydrus
And a sign that the Cape Verde season will take off soon...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.
hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later
Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Not surprised. This looks really good this morning. I did expect it to take a bit longer, given the monsoonal origin. Isn't this expected to impact Mexico later down in the week?

Quoting Tazmanian:
i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm
Is this what they mean by "wishcasting"? lol
21N 83W there is some rotation, too close to shore for anything legit to happen though.


Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned


eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.
Quoting islander101010:
hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later
Nope. By "here" I meant Dr. Master's blog. Would have been cool to be blogging back then, though IIRC, this would have had to have been happening on NNTP, i.e. newsgroups. So there was a tropical wx newsgroup at the time Andrew went through????
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there


yea I guess I can agree with you on the "fish Storm" thing. Yet, I hear some others say the same. I am not ruling out the storm closer to North Carolina. In fact I am certain it will pass within 200 miles of NC.
Tazmanian "i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm"

meh... A nickle per "fish" would give me a nice long vacation, first-class and five-star all the way.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.
You had to have been there...
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. maybe a tropical depression soon for the Eastern Pacific


Is it just me or is the East pacific on Hyper Mode?
Quoting emcf30:
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret


Do not rule out Bermuda.
Quoting BahaHurican:
You had to have been there...


I don't want to get into a conversation about people on here, but +1 to those who think what I think about J.
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


looks to me like he is breaking away from the front finally. Sucking in the moisture from around him.
1058. ncstorm
06z GFDL is predicting a Category 2 hurricane from Bret??

i wish they re move the Quote
PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


In Poland?
1061. emcf30
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Do not rule out Bermuda.


Very true. Definitely something to watch out for.
1062. hcubed
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.
lol where is press at?

I wanted to ask him if it is the same with North and South Dekota? Do people there ask "which Dekota"
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


In Poland?

yes,in Poland
1065. HCW
I still think that it is wrong that LIX tornado warns waterspouts when they are much weaker and almost never cause damage. MOB nws will never issue warnings accept marine warnings for waterspouts unless it's a tornado over the water :)
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?



your brother can turn the power off to the whole country???

Quoting hcubed:


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.


Yet another +1, and when a hurricane actually does strike the US they all claim that they didn't want that to happen.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

yes,in Poland


Sound like the old days in the 60's and 70's when the Communist Party was rationing stuff over there if you ask me.............BTW, Good Morning Everyone.
Quoting Tazmanian:



you mean the worng info he all way yells fish or this will be like last year or things like that


I understand and I sometimes state a year will be like another but for good reason. I find this year to be close to 2005 but without the storms we had by this point in 2005. We can't forget that we have had a lot of invests

There was an area that in the eastern gulf that almost became "Arlene" in early june. Imagine that! We would have than had Bret near Mexico and Cindy now sitting off Flodia instead of Bret. Than you could point your finger at the series of waves coming off Africa which look to be the "BIG storms coming (Dennis and Emily 2005).

So yeah I still think it is odd.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

yes,in Poland

of course excluding factories
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I understand and I sometimes state a year will be like another but for good reason. I find this year to be close to 2005 but without the storms we had by this point in 2005. We can't forget that we have had a lot of invests

There was an area that in the eastern gulf that almost became "Arlene" in early june. Imagine that! We would have than had Bret near Mexico and Cindy now sitting off Flodia instead of Bret. Than you could point your finger at the series of waves coming off Africa which look to be the "BIG storms coming (Dennis and Emily 2005).

So yeah I still think it is odd.


I still think 97L was a TC as well.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Is it just me or is the East pacific on Hyper Mode?


Its just you, last year's June EPAC was hyper mode as they already had the 'D' storm in June. This year its spread out more.
Quoting MrstormX:


I don't want to get into a conversation about people on here, but +1 to those who think what I think about J.
Quoting Tazmanian:




sorry too do this but am going too start poofing you guys that Quote him


your the 1st poof
Taz, don't let it stress you out. Live and let live.

I have to give Jase credit; he has improved a LOT since Taz first put him on ignore. Which is why I don't blame Taz for the way he feels. OTOH, I can't put Jase on ignore because of how bad he USED to be.

So Taz, don't let it stress you out, man. Give the guy credit for trying to get better, and be glad most of the quotes are of the stuff from NHC...

Last word on this.
What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.
1075. FLdewey
Blog firing on all cylinders today?
Quoting BobinTampa:



your brother can turn the power off to the whole country???


Not exactly now,but he would introduce this if he would be able to
Quoting FLdewey:
Blog firing on all cylinders today?


Nope :)
1055 PolishHurrMaster "...my brother told me about his crazy plan: for 4 hours every day (2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electricity off,in whole country!"

Who's "he"? If you're talking about Kan's rolling blackouts, he doesn't have much choice.
2/3ds of Japan's nuclear electricity-generating power-plants have been offline for failure to fully comply with safety standards. (Behaviour that used to be indulged with a "tell us when you fix the problem" has been grounds for shutdown since the GreatTohokuEarthquake)
And only one nuclear generating station has passed muster to be restarted. (Don't remember how many power-plants it contains.)
From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sound like the old days in the 60's and 70's when the Communist Party was rationing stuff over there if you ask me.............BTW, Good Morning Everyone.

Not these times,rather early to mid-80s
1081. FLdewey
Why on earth would you want to turn off the powe... you know what... I don't even want to know.

It's a Monday for sure.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its just you, last year's June EPAC was hyper mode as they already had the 'D' storm in June. This year its spread out more.


Ok I was just wondering. I haven't paid much attention to the E.Pac and so it was impressive to me to see them working on another storm already.
Bret is struggling with dry air this AM, shouldn't get any stronger than 60 mph over the next few days and has begun its turn out to sea, so no real threat to land in the next few days. However, the status is 2-0-0, it is possible that we might see Cindy by the last few days of the month.


(ECMWF, system off Florida going out to sea, system in the GOMEX 240 hours, very long range)

00z GGEM/CMC. Same system that the ECMWF shows off Florida in 204 hours though, stronger, and farther away from the coast.
Link
Quoting Vincent4989:
From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL


How is it a fail, when the season is not even over yet?
1085. P451
Good morning. Surprised to see the blob organized enough to attain depression status and then TS status yesterday. Quicker than I expected that's for certain. Seemed the action was mostly in the mid-levels but it worked it's way to the surface quite quickly didn't it.

Well, so much for...


The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.



Perhaps if the Tropical Weather Blog entries were focused more on Tropical Weather instead of AGW there would have been more discussion on this potential disturbance. Same goes for 97L which formed during the same repeated statements. Both of which did have model support from reliable models.

Thankfully this blog is visited by very astute individuals who produced models that did indeed show development of both systems and those individuals took the time to give their analysis on what we might see from them.

To them, hats off!


Would also like to point out that although I don't like long range models there were some that hinted at both disturbances and did so in the 144-192 hour range at that. Performing above average success in a time frame not expected is a good thing to see.






come on people this is like a really bad tstorm to the bahamas I bet the tide didn,t go above normal .OK in reallity its not a fish but it not even a strong TS,and hopefully it will stay that way
Quoting hcubed:


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.
Yeah, the Caribbean and Bahamas archipelagos are only speed bumps on the way to FL.... lol and FL is only a speed bump on the way to the Gulf coast.... lol lol

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.
So YOU are the cause of this TS formation!!! Never go on vacation in July again!

LOL
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.


lol do NOT go on vacation again for the next three months or you might come back to a CAT 4-5
Sorry for my non-sequiter, PolishHurrMaster, your answer popped up while I was typing a reply.
Quoting aspectre:
1055 PolishHurrMaster "...my brother told me about his crazy plan: for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electricity off,in whole country!"

Who's "he"? If you're talking about Kan, he doesn't have much choice. 2/3ds of Japan's nuclear electricity-generating power-plants have been offline for failure to fully comply with safety standards. (Behaviour that used to be indulged with a "tell us when you fix the problem" has been grounds for shutdown since the GreatTohokuEarthquake)
And only one nuclear generating station has passed muster to be restarted. (Don't remember how many power-plants it contains.)

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: sierpień 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1871




'he' is my brother,he told me that if he were for example despotic ruler,he would introduce this.
Of course in Poland.
Quoting Vincent4989:
From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL
What season is this again?
1092. FLdewey
Not a fish... but certainly a phish.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What season is this again?


Eastern Pacific.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bret is struggling with dry air this AM, shouldn't get any stronger than 60 mph over the next few days and has begun its turn out to sea, so no real threat to land in the next few days. However, the status is 2-0-0, it is possible that we might see Cindy by the last few days of the month.


(ECMWF, system off Florida going out to sea, system in the GOMEX 240 hours, very long range)

00z GGEM/CMC. Same system that the ECMWF shows off Florida in 204 hours though, stronger, and farther away from the coast.
Link


OH CRAP! "Cindy" storm headed right into my backyard in the Panhandle *Dislike*

*I am serious thinking about the possibly of having to spank Cindy*
Quoting BahaHurican:
So YOU are the cause of this TS formation!!! Never go on vacation in July again!

LOL
Quoting wolftribe2009:


lol do NOT go on vacation again for the next three months or you might come back to a CAT 4-5

I'll be in school in a month anyway, so OK!
lol
1096. P451
Fish storm? Jeez give it a rest people.

We get it, if it's not a Cat 5 heading for South Florida or NOLA then it is a fish storm. It's a stupid storm. There's nothing there. There was no reason to name it. The NHC doesn't know what it's doing. Etc.

Some awfully close minded folks on here. I get the feeling this blog would be non-existent if NOLA and SFLA were to cease to exist.

Sad, really..that if something isn't threatening those two regions or the Lesser Antilles nobody cares to discuss them and when they do they downplay their significance to that of a random cloud in the middle of nowhere.

I nickname you people "The World is Flat Crew" because that's about the level of thinking you display when you make "fish storm" claims.

I shouldn't be surprised...you're probably the same folks that declared Igor and Earl of last season "Fish Storms".

:/


Don't fret folks...........just getting a rant off until the new blog entry. :)



Quoting breeezee:
come on people this is like a really bad tstorm to the bahamas I bet the tide didn,t go above normal .OK in reallity its not a fish but it not even a strong TS,and hopefully it will stay that way
All true, for which Bahamians are grateful. We've had the wonderful experience of having a strengthening TS Katrina sweep through our waters at a time when most people didn't even realize there was a TC in the area; glad not to have a repeat with Bret.
1096. Aye mate, but the sad part is its usually the same people every year who do it, and is not a representation of the blog. Bret affected the Bahamas, hence forth it lost its fish status.
1099. FLdewey
I feel a Rodney king moment coming...
1100. FLdewey
...
1101. FLdewey
I knew I should have put up the shutters...



:-o
On a weather note, with the E-Pac firing up again and Bret headed out to sea, we may see another lull on the Atlantic side until we see what happens with that wave out in the CATl in a few days (per one of the models noted below)....The ITCZ still not quite up where it needs to be (around 7N) but should be another story in about 4 weeks. I've seen it happen over and over again for the last several years. Nothwithstanting a few storms in June or July, things quiet down for a little bit around late-July/early August, then Mother Nature "throws the switch" and the "viable" wave train starts in earnest around late August as the final pieces for the heart of the season fall into place.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Eastern Pacific.
So this upcoming storm is the C or D storm, right? [I'm thinking C.]

Now I am trying to figure out how the current activity constitutes epic fail on the part of forecasters. I was just thinking this morning that this may be the last major gasp for EPac for a while, if the projected forecast for the ATL verifies. The Twaves that have been sparking EPac development just won't make it to the EPac the same way.

With the EPac, four storms from May to July do not guarantee an above average season...
1079 Vincent4989 "The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season."

Which scientists and for which year?
If 2011, everybody quote-worthy said it'd probably be slightly-above-normal to above-normal. And the fringers are best ignored as the type who're panicking at the "coming IceAge".
I'd say that Wiki failed to toss out a bad posting, and should permanently toss out whoever posted it.
this low on the La,Ms line is banding ,we just had a squall come thru gonzales with heavy rain and wind,we are in between NO and baton rouge
Good Morning, folks!

Looks like Rita and I were wrong and Levi and the models are right, Bret is going out to sea.

I still think Bret will make a run for Cat1, maybe even Cat2 if it can beat back the dry air.
Quoting MrstormX:


How is it a fail, when the season is not even over yet?

I'm saying that the EPAC season can become active, not going to a 2010 EPAC season.
Geez, dewey, u r getting more wx from Bret than I am...

Hey, it's 9 a.m. and I gotta run... will check in later as time permits.

Ya'll be good now...
1109. HCW
Quoting breeezee:
this low on the La,Ms line is banding ,we just had a squall come thru gonzales with heavy rain and wind,we are in between NO and baton rouge


Highway 90 at Gulfport,MS is now closed due to that line
Quoting P451:
Fish storm? Jeez give it a rest people.

We get it, if it's not a Cat 5 heading for South Florida or NOLA then it is a fish storm. It's a stupid storm. There's nothing there. There was no reason to name it. The NHC doesn't know what it's doing. Etc.

Some awfully close minded folks on here. I get the feeling this blog would be non-existent if NOLA and SFLA were to cease to exist.

Sad, really..that if something isn't threatening those two regions or the Lesser Antilles nobody cares to discuss them and when they do they downplay their significance to that of a random cloud in the middle of nowhere.

I nickname you people "The World is Flat Crew" because that's about the level of thinking you display when you make "fish storm" claims.

I shouldn't be surprised...you're probably the same folks that declared Igor and Earl of last season "Fish Storms".

:/


Don't fret folks...........just getting a rant off until the new blog entry. :)





These are the folks that preferred to wish-cast a pre-season monsoon low in the NW Caribbean (93L) over paying attention to a gorgeous annular Cat4 hurricane in the EPAC (Adrian).
1107 Vincent4989 "I'm saying that the EPAC season can become active"

Ah, the EPAC... Most of us think of the Atlantic when "the season" is mentioned without naming the storm basin.
Still think the quotation of the odds is wrong -- I think they were a bit higher -- but not enough wrong to give Wiki a fail.
Here is the summary of the inverese relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific basin, in light of another pending storm in the E-Pac at this time, from one of Klotzbach's recent conference presentations and the link to entire paper below........A good read.

Another relationship that has been noted in previous years but has been documented more thoroughly recently is the inverse relationship between Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (Lander and Guard 1998, Elsner and Kara 1999, Klotzbach 2006, Wang and Lee 2009, Collins 2010, Wang and Lee 2010). When Atlantic activity is heightened, eastern North Pacific activity tends to be reduced and vice versa. Wang and Lee (2009) demonstrate an out-of-phase relationship between the two basins and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000). They demonstrate that this relationship is likely due to the fact that same-signed upper-level wind anomalies act to increase vertical wind shear in one basin while reducing it in the other basin, due to the fact that climatological upper-level winds are westerly in the Atlantic, while they are easterly in the eastern North Pacific.

Link
To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, don't let it stress you out. Live and let live.

I have to give Jase credit; he has improved a LOT since Taz first put him on ignore. Which is why I don't blame Taz for the way he feels. OTOH, I can't put Jase on ignore because of how bad he USED to be.

So Taz, don't let it stress you out, man. Give the guy credit for trying to get better, and be glad most of the quotes are of the stuff from NHC...

Last word on this.



Taz does not have him on ignore or he would not be seeing his post......secondly Jason's post is really not that extreme. He actually does a pretty good job and his post are really not far off basis......he wasnt wrong too many times last year when he keep saying fishstorm and most of them was......LOL
1115. BDAwx
Good morning :)
I've got about 1/3 of an inch so far from the disturbance to the northeast of Bret, and there is rain in the forecast until Friday. I see Bret has indeed strengthened a little from last night - interesting.
Is it just me or is Jason obsessed with T-waves?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Quoting Darren23:
To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.


Ok. For which basin was this applicable?
Bret is very small... I wonder if we will see this jump to a cat 1-2 pretty fast because of that... Bret does have good outflow on the west side too
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Ok. For which basin was this applicable?

The Eastern Pacific... sorry I didn't add that part.
Quoting Darren23:
To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.

linky?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Bret is very small... I wonder if we will see this jump to a cat 1-2 pretty fast because of that... Bret does have good outflow on the west side too


Not sure i see the good outflow on the West side you are seeing.........I see nearly just the opposite as dry air is hitting the west side very strong now.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Good Morning, folks!

Looks like Rita and I were wrong and Levi and the models are right, Bret is going out to sea.

I still think Bret will make a run for Cat1, maybe even Cat2 if it can beat back the dry air.


I guess so
1124. FLdewey
Quoting jeffs713:

linky?

2011 PHS article on Wikipedia and this is the CPC outlook for EPAC
this year seems familar,???,all the storms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!
Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the stroms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!
be next weekend on sunday big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the stroms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!
might be setting up for a charlie unusual looking tw way out there 22n
1129. bwi
Good Morning. I wonder if Bret strengthens and gets larger and sits off the coast for a while, if the circulation could help draw some cooler/cleaner air down in to the mid-atlantic states? Our forecast here in Maryland for later this week and this coming weekend literally stinks: temps near 100f, light west winds, poor air quality. Would love to get another strong cold front instead of weeks of midwestern air stagnation!
Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the storms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!



You just jinxed us big time you butthead.......LOL........hey bro!


Updated and reflects the shear better .... Not 5 knots of shear like some have suggested.
i see a low with t.storms northeast of Bret!!
Morning All.


Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the stroms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!


Things that make you go Hmmmmm!
MDR getting moist. Should be prime for development in the coming weeks. To say this year will have storms track to mexico and cape Verde storms recurve all year is just putting crow in their mouths. Chances are the CONUS gets hit....


Still little to NO Convergence with Bret.........but look coming off the Africa Coast.........that looks really good........that area for sure needs to be watched.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Still little to NO Convergence with Bret.........but look coming off the Africa Coast.........that looks really good........that area for sure needs to be watched.


The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
be next weekend on sunday big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!


If that product is showing nil convergence with a tropical cyclone then it is simply incorrect. Strange that it isnt showing up though. Maybe due to the LLC's small size?


CDO. Is. Collapsing.
Nice update, Levi ... hope you'll continue to do these when the season is in full swing! We'd have loved to have Bret come visit as a weak TS here in SW Florida, but I for one suspect he'd have become a beast if he'd gotten loose in the Gulf. And we got some pretty hefty showers here yesterday anyway.

A question for you and/or anyone else out there: With the dominant hot High over the Central US so strong and so long, do we have a realistic shot and this thing getting out of here before mid- or late fall? I kinda shuddered when you pointed out the compressing air it is shoving down toward Georgia and Florida. Last year was already really dry for us here in the Cape, and this year's been terribly dry. I'm not hoping for a nasty hurricane season, but I for one would sure like to see this drought pattern get broken.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.


Yep that is the one we better start watching......its my most concern now..........not Bret! Bret might have already peaked out.
And by Sunday the ridge stretches halfway into the GOM. Have to see how it all plays out. There is a weakness noted to the NE of Puerto Rico in the C-ATL.

gotta run...........everyone have a great day!
1148. Patrap
1149. Levi32
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Nice update, Levi ... hope you'll continue to do these when the season is in full swing! We'd have loved to have Bret come visit as a weak TS here in SW Florida, but I for one suspect he'd have become a beast if he'd gotten loose in the Gulf. And we got some pretty hefty showers here yesterday anyway.

A question for you and/or anyone else out there: With the dominant hot High over the Central US so strong and so long, do we have a realistic shot and this thing getting out of here before mid- or late fall? I kinda shuddered when you pointed out the compressing air it is shoving down toward Georgia and Florida. Last year was already really dry for us here in the Cape, and this year's been terribly dry. I'm not hoping for a nasty hurricane season, but I for one would sure like to see this drought pattern get broken.


Well as I have told everyone that asks about this, in similar years to 2011, that ridge usually is strong down over the south through July, but lifts a bit northward during August-October, allowing the height of the hurricane season to threaten the north gulf coast. This year has followed the analogs pretty closely so far. Whether it continues to do that, I can't really say, especially since this entire ENSO cycle has been strange so far over North America. The seasonal model forecasts all support above-average precipitation near the coast, so I would say there's a decent chance that a few people get soaked by a tropical cyclone this season.
what up TS??,got some tropical downpours big time yesterday....this yrs pattern so far looks identical to last yrs,it cannot be denied,only time will tell,our area is protected,the DOD aint gonna let it happen,lol(TPA bubble)
And everything is copacetic once again
ATCF (every 6hours)
06pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 156.0degrees(~SouthSouthEast)
12amGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w , 167.4degrees(~midway SSE&dueSouth)
06amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w , 56.0degrees(~midwayEastNorthEast&NorthEast)

NHC (every 3hours)
09pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 90degrees(dueEast)
12amGMTto03amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w , 90degrees(dueEast)
03pmGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w , 180degrees(dueSouth)
06amGMTto09amGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w , 69.5degrees(~EastNorthEast)
09amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w , 41.7degrees(~NorthEast)

Copy&paste 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w, pbi, fpo, 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w, 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w, 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Quoting Patrap:
thats the same radar i was trying to post but cant figure out how, I'm a newbie at that stuff, but anyways i couldn't help but notice how everything is rotating. We have been needing this sooo bad in south MS. wildfires and Running sprinklers every night gets old.
Bret is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of activity. The EPAC is likely to get a storm and the tropical waves need to be watched much more closely now.
1154. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bret
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



1155. Patrap
The Low spiraling thru Se. La. and Southern Miss is a welcome sight.
big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!

he didnt jinx you its the way the ab high has set up shop well south causing the storms to continue more west and affect the yucatan and the the mexican coast...this is a certain tract now that the ab high has set up shop....mexico is in for a really bad hurricane season and the the unites states will be spared once again this year from the cv ...the only thing the gulfcoast and atlantic seaboard have to worry about is these stalling fronts which is a very good possibility something may form on the edge of the front and be a problem to the gulfcoast...this is shades of last year almost a repeat of what happened...we will have quite a few storms when the african train starts up....one disturbance has already come off and will probably be cindy in the next 96-120 hours...this system has a large envelope and no doubt in my mind with the dust diminishing and the shear very light this will ramp up fairly quickly as it moves west...the winward islands need to pay close attention on this system in the next 10 days...
1158. txjac
Quoting Patrap:
The Low spiraling thru Se. La. and Southern Miss is a welcome sight.


Pat, when you are done with it send it to Texas ...
1159. Levi32
Let's not forget about Ma-on closing in on Japan...though dry air did a bigger number on this storm than even I expected. This is great news for the people of Japan, and hopefully this storm doesn't turn out to be a major damaging event.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.

Now the CMC? interesting. may i have a link teddy
1161. Patrap
Quoting txjac:


Pat, when you are done with it send it to Texas ...


That be da plan.
hot tower developing on Bret?

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!




I wouldn't put much faith in a forecast beyond 5 days, with days 4 & 5 being highly speculative. There's no reason to go out further than that except to show you what could be. There is no guarantee of a trough on the coast next Sunday.
Quoting bwi:
Good Morning. I wonder if Bret strengthens and gets larger and sits off the coast for a while, if the circulation could help draw some cooler/cleaner air down in to the mid-atlantic states? Our forecast here in Maryland for later this week and this coming weekend literally stinks: temps near 100f, light west winds, poor air quality. Would love to get another strong cold front instead of weeks of midwestern air stagnation!


Unlikely. there isnt any cool air to the north thru the weekend. crank up the AC.
The tropics are quiet, and none of the reliable models predict development for the next 7 days.
only people that need to watch bret is bermuda...bermuda may be placed in a hurricane watch in the next 24 hours as bret strengthens to a strong tropical storm...so bermuda needs to be ready as bret comes there way....its possible bret could reach hurricane force for a short time before being wisked out to sea....dry air seems to be slacking and not affecting bret to much so it should allow bret to strengthen....
FYI.Cloud burst 2011 is our old buddy stormtop,or am i the only one that noticed that.But anyway nice to see you Lenny and think you could be right.
1168. Patrap
The Louisiana/Miss Low has more "Oomph" than Bret easily..as well as convecvtion.

WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Not sure i see the good outflow on the West side you are seeing.........I see nearly just the opposite as dry air is hitting the west side very strong now.


Looks like outflow with the dry air invading the level under the outflow. Sort of like mid level dry air working in. Didn't we have a storm last year that had dry air undercutting the outflow?
1170. hcubed
Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it just me or is Jason obsessed with T-waves?


From looking at all the names on my ignore list, he's more obsessed with his name, and trying to find new ways to stay off of the lists.

At least he's easy to spot...
Quoting Patrap:
The Louisiana/Miss Low has more "Oomph" than Bret easily..as well as convecvtion.

WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.



It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days
1172. Patrap
Typhoon Ma-on is continuing its gradual curvature while heading toward the Japanese coastline

A short landfall is predicted to cross southernmost Wakayama a bit west of SHM airport
before Ma-on heads westward out into the ocean

Copy&paste 21.1n137.9e, 21.8n137.1e, 22.7n136.3e, 23.4n135.6e, 24.4n134.6e-25.2n133.8e, 25.2n133.8e-26.0n133.4e, 26.0n133.4e-27.0n133.2e, 27.0n133.2e-28.3n133.2e, koj, shm, hnd, sdj into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
1174. Jax82
visible loop.

Quoting RitaEvac:


It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days

I think i heard the texans saying this:
(in a high pitched cute voice) YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Patrap:


That be da plan.


Yep. Just give it a day Txjac. :)

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE ACRS SE TX.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
Quoting Patrap:
The Louisiana/Miss Low has more "Oomph" than Bret easily..as well as convecvtion.

WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.

i am happy that low on land not in the GOM
invest 94E look like a Tropical Depression right now..i am waiting for 11am update!
Quoting Jax82:
visible loop.



looks to be banding to me. The eastern side is pretty well organized. This is going to be a small hurricane if it doesn't get any bigger. That is IF it becomes a hurricanes.
getting better looking this low northeast of the tropical storm!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
getting better looking this low northeast of the tropical storm!!


WOW! we may have 2 storms at once! and then merge into a superstorm and affect the fish!

WOW
TD 4-E has formed.
Patrap Good Morning,

Do you have an idea as to which direction the low over LA/Miss might be traveling? I live in Houston and I'm cautiously optimistic for the rain but also a little concerned about flooding. Boy we haven't said that word in a long time:)
1185. emcf30

My bad, posted old image
Quoting RitaEvac:


WOW! we may have 2 storms at once! and then merge into a superstorm and affect the fish!

WOW


Someone call the SciFi network...we've got a new script for them...Category 7: Disaster in Freeport. Someone check Debbie Gibson's calendar!

On the weather side, I show up this morning and find out there's a tropical storm not to far off the Palm Beach County shore...wouldn't know it from the sun being out!!
TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------​---------------- -
LOCATION...27.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Severe weather setups are a bit of a different animal in mid-summer vs. the spring months. Gone are the deep, sharp upper-level dips in the jet stream swinging out of the Desert Southwest into the Plains, triggering outbreaks of tornadoes.

What mid-July may lack in so-called "dynamics" in the upper-levels, it can make up for in terms of heat and humidity. This is the "fuel" thunderstorms feed off of.

Read article: Heat wave continues

Therefore, you don't necessarily need as powerful a jet stream dip to produce a rash of thunderstorms in the summer months. Such is the case Monday in the Northeast.

Jet stream energy will ride over the northern Great Lakes and surge southeastward into the Northeast Monday. With increasingly hot, humid air feeding in from the west and southwest, the stage is set for clusters of severe thunderstorms to kick off the work week. This is shown in the diagram at right.


Fortunately, the change in winds with height, or wind shear, forecast for the Northeast Monday will feature more of a change in wind speed, than wind direction with height. These shear profiles tend to produce lines of thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats, rather than supercells with tornadoes.


WOW!! TORNADOES IN THE NORTHEAST LATER!!
invest 94 E now td 4 expected to become a major hurricane
1190. P451
Quoting Jax82:
visible loop.



Looks good. As if it wants to be a hurricane good.


Meanwhile...something interesting I came across this morning.



===================

To better understand the sources of the Earth's heat, scientists studied antineutrinos, elementary particles that, like their neutrino counterparts, only rarely interact with normal matter. Using the Kamioka Liquid-scintillator Antineutrino Detector (KamLAND) located under a mountain in Japan, they analyzed geoneutrinos — ones emitted by decaying radioactive materials within the Earth — over the course of more than seven years.

The specific amount of energy an antineutrino packs on the rare occasions one does collide with normal matter can tell scientists about what material emitted it in the first place — for instance, radioactive material from within the Earth, as opposed to in nuclear reactors. If one also knows how rarely such an antineutrino interacts with normal matter, one can then estimate how many antineutrinos are being emitted and how much energy they are carrying in total.


The researchers found the decay of radioactive isotopes uranium-238 and thorium-232 together contributed 20 trillion watts to the amount of heat Earth radiates into space, about six times as much power as the United States consumes. U.S. power consumption in 2005 averaged about 3.34 trillion watts.


As huge as this value is, it only represents about half of the total heat leaving the planet. The researchers suggest the remainder of the heat comes from the cooling of the Earth since its birth.


jason:

No, read that again.

Expected to peak out at cat 3
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 181431
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

1195. Patrap
Quoting mamakins:
Patrap Good Morning,

Do you have an idea as to which direction the low over LA/Miss might be traveling? I live in Houston and I'm cautiously optimistic for the rain but also a little concerned about flooding. Boy we haven't said that word in a long time:)


The Low seems to be following the Guidance WEST today
1196. Caner
Louisianians are still using the rain right now texas can wait.... just kidding yall need the rain just as muchas we do.
1198. MahFL
Quoting aspectre:
before Ma-on heads westward out into the ocean


I think you mean east.....
WINDS 120 MPH!!
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


With all due respect. I strongly believe that your brother is smoking the wrong brand of cigars
1159 Levi32 "Let's not forget about Ma-on closing in on Japan...though dry air did a bigger number on this storm than even I expected. This is great news for the people of Japan, and hopefully this storm doesn't turn out to be a major damaging event."

Ma-on's probably embarrassed enough about raining on Japan's Women'sWorldCupChampionship victory parade without adding injury to faux pas.
I have to admit, Jason is right, there is a pretty pronounced spin NE of Bret on the visible loop from NHC floater.
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch


see my next post in a moment. I think that low might be a "separate" storm.

Quoting WINDSMURF:


With all due respect. I strongly believe that your brother is smoking the wrong brand of cigars


Thats one surewy to have arevolution
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch
Is it the wave that is coming off africa , can u post a link please
This front seems to be spinning off lows left and right as it leaves the area. MS/LA, E of FL, and another E of GA/SC possibly
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch


Interesting. Most definitely it's one to watch.
Interesting to note every single EPAC storm this year has become a hurrricane:
Adrian: Cat. 4
Beatriz: Cat.1
Calvin: Cat.1
Dora: Cat.3?
The EURO is showing a storm forming in the lesser antils around 144 hours
Link

This is a look at it 192 Hours
Link

Then at 216 Hours we have the storm turning North West (Threat to the East Coast) while a Separate area is over the Pan Handle of Florida

a href="Link" target="_blank">Link

240 Hours
East Coast storm is now near the North East Bahamas. While the Low over the Pan Handle of Florida has moved Southward
Link
Quoting AllStar17:
jason:

No, read that again.


NWS Taunton MA mentions the possibility of an isolated tornado. They said in an earlier discussion that the shear profiles still weren't as favorable as the June 1st event, which produced the Springfield tornado.

Regardless, shaping up to be a day of severe weather for us in the Northeast.

ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...FEELING IS THERE WILL STILL BE TWO WAVES
OF CONVECTION. /FIRST/ WITH THE MCS INTO THIS EARLY AFTN...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF WHICH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM WITH THE
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER. CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SITUATED WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SECOND/
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT POISED SE OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY RGN...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REBOUNDING BEHIND THE MCS OVER
THE ERN GRT LKS RGN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO HIGHLIGHT SOME
CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AID THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FEEL
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW OF THREATS FOR THIS LATER AFTN INTO
EVNG...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THE
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES
.

AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND LEWPS...BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE W/NW...COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD
FRONT...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PER
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
1211. P451
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
WINDS 120 MPH!!


The EPac has done nothing but impress so far this season.

I can't recall but is it not 4 for 4 with this system?

4 invests -----> 4 storms?

Quoting caneswatch:


Interesting. Most definitely it's one to watch.

wait so both models recurve cindy?? or where does it go? im confused :(
Quoting Patrap:


The Low seems to be following the Guidance WEST today


Thanks! I appreciate the info. Have a great day.
1214. Patrap
Quoting P451:
nope 5 for 4...
90E: Bust
91E: Adrian
92E: Beatriz
93E: Calvin
94E: Dora
i dont believe cindy gets anywhere close to hispanola...she will be controlled by the ab high which is situated well south...this looks like a caribbean event for sure and the winwards should keep in touch with this ..after it moves into the yucatan and then mexico a pretty nice size hurricane...this is going to be and issue for the caribbeans islands and down the road the yucatan and mexico....cant see this system bucking the high and heading towards fla...the high is to strong for that to happen...
NEW BLOG
nuetral
Euro show a cat.1 hurricane riding up the east coast(due to a frontal system)
the Cmc is just beginning to jump on the thought so they still have it weak. but do hint at it.
1219. Patrap
One should never use a List Name before its used OFFICIALLY.

Something can and usually forms before it.

Its also confusing,,maybe use the next invest # first as that is the way its done professionally.

Say, like, I think the Nam has 99L pegged in the BOC Satuday
Cloud its heading in the direction FL, due to the AB high weakening from a strong trough exiting the east coast, so if youre thinking it's a caribbean storm then the set up basically would put it in the GOM.
ok let me get this straight

the ECMWF is saying that "cindy" will be churning through the Eastern Gulf on July 27-29

the EURO is saying that "Cindy" will be forming around 144 Hours and will be churning off EAST Florida 240 Hours from Now while a SECOND area develops South of Panama City.
Quoting Patrap:
One should never use a List Name before its used OFFICIALLY.

Something can and usually forms before it.

Its also confusing,,maybe use the next invest # first as that is the way its done professionally.

Say, like, I think the Nam has 99L pegged in the BOC Satuday


True but if you are like me than you don't think anything is forming before this feature; therefore, they are calling it "Cindy" because it is the area the models are bent on forecasting. That isn't just ONE model but Three now
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Is it the wave that is coming off africa , can u post a link please


Sure: Blame Canada model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/GGEM.html

Fun lovin' Euro model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
Levi,

Do you see the same pattern of troughs recurving storms like last year?

I know no two seasons are exacty alike but just wondering. Also, do you see any similarities with this ENSO season compared to 2005? Thanks
1225. OBXgirl
I do wish Bret would slip over close enough to the OBX to give us a little rain....we are feeling like cacti here.