WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Prgal
Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, but if that one would have had an extra day over water It would have been tagged or probably named, nice compact and healthy looking one, but not enough time.
Keep an eye on the Navy page, they post the invests there. :)
y no hay de que. ^^


Ok, got the page and will keep it in my bookmarks. Good night everybody!
YAY i was commet 2000 what do i win
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY i was commet 2000 what do i win
48 hour ban
2004. Prgal
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY i was commet 2000 what do i win


Hehehe, a goodnight kiss Taz...muaks!
2005. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY i was commet 2000 what do i win


maybe a cookie? Is that ok? :P
Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, but if that one would have had an extra day over water It would have been tagged or probably named, nice compact and healthy looking one, but not enough time.
Keep an eye on the Navy page, they post the invests there. :)
y no hay de que. ^^
Yo prefiero usar este sitio al buscar invests.

ATCF

Ok, now back to English.
Will see if anything is happening in the morning, but tend to believe the statistics are right and that nothing will start up with any significance until late July/August.
Yes, this is a safe bet.
2008. Ldog74
Quoting Chicklit:
conditions looking marginally favorable this evening.


Good thing nothing out there looks all too threatening at the moment.
2009. JLPR2
Quoting hunkerdown:
48 hour ban


Ouch! That's a terrible prize. LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:


maybe a cookie? Is that ok? :P
stealing MH09's show are you...
2011. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yo prefiero usar este sitio al buscar invests.

ATCF

Ok, now back to English.


Check the link, it takes me back to this page. XD
Quoting hunkerdown:
48 hour ban



lol
2013. JLPR2
Quoting hunkerdown:
stealing MH09's show are you...


If its a joke I didn't get it. O.o?
LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:


Check the link, it takes me back to this page. XD
How about this one?

ATCF
Quoting JLPR2:


If its a joke I didn't get it. O.o?
LOL!
I usually give out cyber-cookies when people are right. LOL.
Anyone else looking at the 0% chance circle storm NHC has? This thing really organized fast, it looks like a TD now! If it survives the crossing I'd say better than 75% chance EPAC storm.
Looks best in motion - Link

Did all you Miami peeps watch that media circus with Lebron James?
2018. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How about this one?


ATCF


Yep, that's a nice one!
But I need pages with less links or I'll get confused LOL! :P
2019. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY i was commet 2000 what do i win
Entry into raffle for blogger of the day. Prize is only WU t-shirt but only in extra small.
Quoting Ldog74:


Good thing nothing out there looks all too threatening at the moment.

All things as expected is a good thing.
I have been shopping shopping shopping...
Finally got my wardrobe for fall all set as well as my hurricane supplies for the summer. So I am a happy camper and totally worn out.
Saw some good old friends this evening and now I can happily hibernate for some time!
Have a good evening (or what's left of it) and Best Regards to everyone.
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like the GFS is up to something

Weak Low with a wave and lookie:

Its sitting at the coast


Well, there's nothing eminent so I thought why not publish this? LOL!
To make the blog go loco.LoL.
Quoting centex:
Entry into raffle for blogger of the day. Prize is only WU t-shirt but only in extra small.



lol you can keep it
2024. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I usually give out cyber-cookies when people are right. LOL.


ha!
But I have given and received cookies before. :P
*takes the jar of cookies from MH9 and runs away*
LOL! XD
2025. centex
Quoting winter123:
Anyone else looking at the 0% chance circle storm NHC has? This thing really organized fast, it looks like a TD now! If it survives the crossing I'd say better than 75% chance EPAC storm.
Looks best in motion - Link

Yes looked good except big land issue.
Quoting JLPR2:


ha!
But I have given and received cookies before. :P
*takes the jar of cookies from MH9 and runs away*
LOL! XD
LOL!!
If you're bored, join tropics chat - Link
2029. JLPR2
I'm really curious as to what the ASCAT will show with our AOI in the Caribbean
Last pass:


Or maybe it will miss it XD
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
Development at this point is unlikely.
2032. centex
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
I hope not. I've leaved in texas coast now central for 40 years and do not remember two systems within week, maybe I don't remember so well.
2033. bappit
Quoting StormW:


The Typhoon like setup is one that doesn't actually spawn from a tropical wave. The flow for the past few weeks in the Atlantic has been mainly out of the SE in the Tropics. With the A/B high having been weaker, the trades have been slower, and allowing for heat and moisture to build up in the Caribbean. This is the "monsoonal flow" you've heard me and Levi speak of. Then, with Mean Sea level pressures having been below average, and then when the high weakens somewhat, and orients slightly north, we get lowering pressures in the Caribbean. Lowering pressures and heat build up allow for more vertical motion, or rising air. A large area of lower pressure (not to be confused with a closed low) develops. These processes also aid in the upper level anticyclone to be maintained around or over the area. This all allows for thunderstorms to build, rain, and release latent heat energy. The upper level anticyclone evacuates this rising air;heat, and pressures lower further. Because there is no pre-existing low (surface closed low, tropical wave, etc), it takes longer, as well as the area being so large. Once an area is established that becomes dominate with vorticity, then we can start to see a surface circulation. In fact, the process sorta reminds me of what we call CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind)

CISK

Wasn't Bastardi promoting the typhoon formation meme for Alex? Does he deserve credit for it?

It will be interesting to see the NHC's description of events in their tropical cyclone reports since they were tracking tropical waves in their discussions for both Alex and TD2. These waves may have been tilted with height which could explain the slow development and displacement of mid-level from surface circulations. (You were tracking two circulations at different levels of the atmosphere with the antecedent to TD2.)

Kudos to the Navy for their accurate forecast on the development of Alex. He formed in the box they warned even though the bulk of convection was well to the east when they issued the warning. If I remember correctly, strong convection formed in the area of their warning the day after they issued the warning. That does not sound like a case where convection was driving the show. They were watching something else.
BP’s containment effort has been delayed by bad weather in the Gulf, but forecasts on Friday suggested there would be a window of up to nine calm days
Well I'm off to bed, have a pleasant evening everyone!
Probably wont see anything significant until after mid-July.

2037. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well I'm off to bed, have a pleasant evening everyone!


night Miami!
2038. beell
Quoting bappit:

Wasn't Bastardi promoting the typhoon formation meme for Alex? Does he deserve credit for it?

It will be interesting to see the NHC's description of events in their tropical cyclone reports since they were tracking tropical waves in their discussions for both Alex and TD2. These waves may have been tilted with height which could explain the slow development and displacement of mid-level from surface circulations. (You were tracking two circulations at different levels of the atmosphere with the antecedent to TD2.)

Kudos to the Navy for their accurate forecast on the development of Alex. He formed in the box they warned even though the bulk of convection was well to the east when they issued the warning. If I remember correctly, strong convection formed in the area of their warning the day after they issued the warning. That does not sound like a case where convection was driving the show. They were watching something else.


The wave axis?
.... wondering if anyone is even at the NHC today ... lol ...
2040. centex
I'm following the wave entering the Caribbean; do not expect anything next couple of days. But this train of waves kicking up in western Caribbean needs special attention until it stops happening. You don't get this stuff in the scientific journals.
Quoting Surfcropper:
Asking the gallery for Carribean moving pics for the girls


for facebook
Caribbean moversjust for you
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Probably wont see anything significant until after mid-July.



Wow the dust has really let up, Levi was right the wave we saw last night emerge from Africa 'sacrificed' itself to the dust, creating a more moist environment in front of the two waves behind it. MJO is in no hurry to leave our basin either.
Quoting JLPR2:


ha!
But I have given and received cookies before. :P
*takes the jar of cookies from MH9 and runs away*
LOL! XD
If they were the same cookies he was giving out a few days ago, they were stale...
2044. Levi32
Alex's formation was more than just a decoupled tropical wave. It formed a low along the wave axis underneath convection in the eastern Caribbean but then the surface low decided to race ahead into the area of lowest pressures which was in the western Caribbean. Once there, it dug in its heals and largely stalled out, while gradually becoming better defined. The mid-level center with the focus of the heat energy, along with a 2nd tropical wave behind the first one, lagged behind and was sluggish in its westward progress. Once it finally caught up, the system became vertically stacked within the area of greatest pressure falls, and at that point the system was finally able to feedback and wala we had Alex.

The most interesting part of the whole process were the very pronounced southeasterly trade winds throughout the entire central-eastern Caribbean causing a massive piling up of air, along with a monsoon trough displaced to the north over the western Caribbean. That's where the similarities with typhoon development came in. Tropical waves were in there helping, but they only did part of the work. There was a massive area of heat getting bundled together from several different features. It was a very large-scale pattern-based development.
2045. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Alex's formation was more than just a decoupled tropical wave. It formed a low along the wave axis underneath convection in the eastern Caribbean but then the surface low decided to race ahead into the area of lowest pressures which was in the western Caribbean. Once there, it dug in its heals and largely stalled out, while gradually becoming better defined. The mid-level center with the focus of the heat energy, along with a 2nd tropical wave behind the first one, lagged behind and was sluggish in its westward progress. Once it finally caught up, the system became vertically stacked within the area of greatest pressure falls, and at that point the system was finally able to feedback and wala we had Alex.

The most interesting part of the whole process were the very pronounced southeasterly trade winds throughout the entire central-eastern Caribbean causing a massive piling up of air, along with a monsoon trough displaced to the north over the western Caribbean. That's where the similarities with typhoon development came in. Tropical waves were in there helping, but they only did part of the work. It was a very large-scale pattern-based development.


Evening, Levi,
So this monsoonal typhoonal flow/trough in the Caribbean would exist in the absence of passing waves?
If your interested in going to Florida... I just got an interesting new tourist map for Florida :)

Its posted in my Blog at remark 753 :)
2047. xcool


2049. Levi32
Quoting beell:


Evening, Levi,
So this monsoonal typhoonal flow/trough in the Caribbean would exist in the absence of passing waves?


Hey Beell. Well sure, tropical waves aren't the driver of such a pattern. It was mostly thanks to the MJO being over that part of the world and the record amounts of oceanic and atmospheric heat content in the Caribbean. The tropical wave helped pull in the southeasterly wind surge, but I hadn't seen such a southerly field of wind from east of the islands all the way through the Caribbean before. It was quite something.
Quoting Orcasystems:
If your interested in going to Florida... I just got an interesting new tourist map for Florida :)

Its posted in my Blog at remark 753 :)


ROFL!
Quoting jaevortex:


ROFL!


Its the green area that scares me :)
2052. Levi32
.messed that up
GFS at 66.

Link

Somewhat in line with the 18z nogaps.

Link

We'll see what happens.
2054. JRRP


2055. Levi32
Looking at the surface wind vector anomalies for June 23rd, two days before Alex became TD 1, there was a massive buildup of heat going on in the tropical Atlantic. The normal ENE trade wind flow through the Caribbean was shoved up to 20N and replaced by moist southeasterlies. And check out the massive anomalous monsoonal circulation in the western Caribbean. The monsoon trough was displaced farther north than it usually is....those SW winds coming into Panama continued right across and didn't converge until they were well up into the Caribbean. Remember all the convection that was going off? It was just everywhere. There was a whole dang ton of energy going rampant in our area of the world.

2056. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Hey Beell. Well sure, tropical waves aren't the driver of such a pattern. It was mostly thanks to the MJO being over that part of the world and the record amounts of oceanic and atmospheric heat content in the Caribbean. The tropical wave helped pull in the southeasterly wind surge, but I hadn't seen such a southerly field of wind from east of the islands all the way through the Caribbean before. It was quite something.


It truly was a semi-rare broad cyclonic flow over the entire basin that we have not seen since. I possibly would give more credit to the waves (i think there were 3 of them e-w in the Caribbean Basin)than you. In combination with the MJO and oceanic heat.


2057. Levi32
Quoting beell:


It truly was a semi-rare broad cyclonic flow over the entire basin that we have not seen since. I possibly would give more credit to the waves (i think there were 3 of them e-w in the Caribbean Basin)than you. In combination with the MJO and oceanic heat.




Even that very fact that 3 of them contributed to development makes it a unique situation. There were many features contributing energy. It was a massive conglomeration of heat.
Quoting jholmestyle:
GFS at 66.

Link

Somewhat in line with the 18z nogaps.

Link

We'll see what happens.


Hour 144 is very interesting
I don't agree with Levi32 about everything, but he does a durned good job on the tropics. He is very sure of himself, but he makes his contribution here.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the green area that scares me :)


That would be the scariest bit of all.. if you like that you should check out my last blog :P
2062. Levi32
2058. centex 8:22 PM AKDT on July 09, 2010

Um ok. First of all show me where I was recently wrong and others were right. You challenged me on TD 2 and you couldn't provide proof even after I asked you twice to quote me from the statements you claimed I made. Unless you bring proof, I don't have to listen to that.

And obviously, my forecasts will not always turn out correct.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hour 144 is very interesting


Are you Joshing me, I think I sense some sarcasm.
ECMWF at 216 hours showing CV disturbance.

GFS at 66 hours showing CV system (probably a TS, GFS is very low on resolution)

NOGAPS also at 66 hours showing a CV system.

CMC shows a strong wave, not a depression at 72 hours. Fairly weak.

Fair amount of model support. I want to see ECMWF 00z before saying anything.. it shows something similar to the CMC by 72 hours. It was earlier jumping onto a NOGAPS intensity with this wave.
Personal arguments might be better conducted using WU mail
Well centex is sure getting himself on a lot of ignore lists right now. He has no idea what he is talking about.
hey Levi32 why not this put centex ip on Ignore and his commets will be gone this like that
Quoting centex:
I think you know details but don't know how to apply it. It takes experience. Keep up the study because you have potential but I can out forecast you using just internet images. I know 1/10 the science but get forecast better than you. I question when you give poor explanation, like the dmax/dmin thing you did a poor job and was not learning experience for bloggers. From a senior I'm just trying to get you on a better track. Lesson is you’re arrogant and forecaster needs to be scientific and apply experience.. You’ve let the blog respect get to your head, especially considering how your forecasts which have been wrong and differ from professionals who have been right. There are several other professional bloggers who don’t make your mistakes. Just challenging you to up your game it does not impress me.
You say "from a senior", do you mean high school senior, elder, or senior citizen ? Oh, and shall I call you out on your grammar ?????
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Personal arguments might be better conducted using WU mail



noteded
Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.
Quoting hunkerdown:
You say "from a senior", do you mean high school senior, elder, or senior citizen ? Oh, and shall I call you out on your grammar ?????



lol lol lol and you say am bad lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.



vary un likey right now wind shear is vary high in the E pac
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.


It's persisted all day. Had it moved more northerly it probably would've been a threat to develop in the Atlantic. I agree though that there is some EPAC development potential.
2074. beell
Quoting Levi32:
....those SW winds coming into Panama continued right across and didn't converge until they were well up into the Caribbean. Remember all the convection that was going off? It was just everywhere. There was a whole dang ton of energy going rampant in our area of the world.


A by product of the ocean-land circulation over NW S America and low surface pressures just off coast in the far SW the Caribbean? A permanent mini-monsoon or gyre during the season?

Anywayz, I'll keep my eyes and mind open. I may be convinced of this "new" way of looking at things by season's end.

And because I am such a nice guy...you may have the last word on this paticular exchange tonight if you wish!

Appreciate your thoughts.
Quoting jaevortex:


That would be the scariest bit of all.. if you like that you should check out my last blog :P


I did... hilarious :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol lol lol and you say am bad lol
People may joke about your posts at times but at least you have a valid excuse...
2078. Levi32
Quoting beell:
A by product of the ocean-land circulation over NW S America and low surface pressures just off coast in the far SW the Caribbean? A permanent mini-monsoon or gyre during the season?

Anywayz, I'll keep my eyes and mind open. I may be convinced of this "new" way of looking at things by season's end.

And because I am such a nice guy...you may have the last word on this paticular exchange tonight if you wish!

Appreciate your thoughts.


I don't need a last word....wasn't aware this was really a debate.

The semi-permanent monsoonal circulation that you mentioned is normally positioned over Panama, but it was located farther north than normal over the western Caribbean when Alex formed, along with the entire trade wind regime across the Caribbean. That's all I was saying.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I did... hilarious :)


;) Well I'm outta here night! Night bloggers. Oh and Levi don't let that dude get to you. You're spot on awesome.
Quoting centex:
Seems like NHC on ignore list. Levi is my prime blogger with most respect who differs from NHC. I watch blog for breaking events not foolish blogers who think they know better.


Poof!
2083. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I don't need a last word....wasn't aware this was really a debate.

The semi-permanent monsoonal circulation that you mentioned is normally positioned over Panama, but it was located farther north than normal over the western Caribbean when Alex formed, along with the entire trade wind regime across the Caribbean. That's all I was saying.


Just a dicussion, Levi. I am not centex!
Sincere...and good night folks.
Quoting centex:
Wonder why this season seems strange and why your questioning what is going on, it's Levi leading you astray. Why NHC does this or that, only reason your confused is Levi.


wow ... I can't believe you just said this.
Quoting jaevortex:


wow ... I can't believe you just said this.



this put him on | Ignore
Quoting centex:
Wonder why this season seems strange and why your questioning what is going on, it's Levi leading you astray. Why NHC does this or that, only reason your confused is Levi.


LOL...Levi has nothing to do with any confusion about the NHC's practices this season. If anything it's all the other people whining about it.
Quoting Tazmanian:



this put him on | Ignore


I'm shocked Taz... I was going to sleep when I saw his post wow.. What a jerk
2090. gator23
Quoting centex:
Wonder why this season seems strange and why your questioning what is going on, it's Levi leading you astray. Why NHC does this or that, only reason your confused is Levi.

mail centex
Quoting jaevortex:


I'm shocked Taz... I was going to sleep when I saw his post wow.. What a jerk




i am too
Quoting centex:
Wonder why this season seems strange and why your questioning what is going on, it's Levi leading you astray. Why NHC does this or that, only reason your confused is Levi.


All I've seen Levi do when talking about the season as a whole is preach about how active it's going to be eventually. Last time I checked, NOAA is going with an average of 18.5 storms. Last time I checked Levi's prediction, he said 18 storms. I don't think there has been anything weird at all about this season so far or with anything Levi has said. You are just too caught up in trying to get attention for yourself because you can't stand him being right and getting respect. Oh, and StormW and Levi usually go right in line with the same opinions. You think Storm doesn't know what he's talking about too? I'm sorry, but YOU, sir, have no idea what you're talking about. Bye bye.
Quoting MississippiWx:


All I've seen Levi do when talking about the season as a whole is preach about how active it's going to be eventually. Last time I checked, NOAA is going with an average of 18.5 storms. Last time I checked Levi's prediction, he said 18 storms. I don't think there has been anything weird at all about this season so far or with anything Levi has said. You are just too caught up in trying to get attention for yourself because you can't stand him being right and getting respect. Oh, and StormW and Levi usually go right in line with the same opinions. You think Storm doesn't know what he's talking about too? I'm sorry, but YOU, sir, have no idea what you're talking about. Bye bye.


True story. Night all.
Quoting MississippiWx:


All I've seen Levi do when talking about the season as a whole is preach about how active it's going to be eventually. Last time I checked, NOAA is going with an average of 18.5 storms. Last time I checked Levi's prediction, he said 18 storms. I don't think there has been anything weird at all about this season so far or with anything Levi has said. You are just too caught up in trying to get attention for yourself because you can't stand him being right and getting respect. Oh, and StormW and Levi usually go right in line with the same opinions. You think Storm doesn't know what he's talking about too? I'm sorry, but YOU, sir, have no idea what you're talking about. Bye bye.


yup this put him right up all Ignore wait re port him then put him on Ignore am talking about centex that is
I can't wait for winter when it's all about GW. There are too many heated disputes here.
Quoting futuremet:
I can't wait for winter when it's all about GW. There are too many heated disputes here.



shhhhhhhhh
For another latenight installment of tales from the Gulf..US Navy evacuates GOM.. I checked the tsunami warning page it works fine. & the military's story for heading to Costa Rico is to fight the War on Drugs.. Didn't really look to see if the Navy had any ships in Gulf or not. Would be nice if they stuck around to end BP spraying Corexit & trampling our constitutional rights..
Centex, you have the right to give your opinion and disagree with others. However, do it in a tactful way that will not harm others.
Quoting centex:
As you can tell I've lost total respect in Levi. He frequently differs from NHC and while I don't take NHC as gospel, I believe them long before I believe the crap analysis Levi gives. He obviously has no experience. Don’t let him fool you, not saying believe me I would never say the type of crap he says. He does not have experience and that matters most, he just has not learned that.


you been re ported that is a personal attack
Things are way too quiet in the explosive Caribbean Sea. Drum roll ....
Quoting Skyepony:
For another latenight installment of tales from the Gulf..US Navy evacuates GOM.. I checked the tsunami warning page it works fine. & the military's story for heading to Costa Rico is to fight the War on Drugs.. Didn't really look to see if the Navy had any ships in Gulf or not. Would be nice if they stuck around to end BP spraying Corexit & trampling our constitutional rights..


Hmm, what do you make of this latest story?

Feds say new cap could contain Gulf leak by Monday
Would someone please explain to me what is so awful about a blogger on here getting a tropical forecast wrong?
I hope it turns out to be true coffinwood.
2105. JRRP
Quoting futuremet:
I can't wait for winter when it's all about GW. There are too many heated disputes here.

jajaajaja
Quoting centex:
Seems like NHC on ignore list. Levi is my prime blogger with most respect who differs from NHC. I watch blog for breaking events not foolish blogers who think they know better.


Should have been on the night TD2 was declared.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I hope it turns out to be true coffinwood.


I'll believe it when I see it...
2108. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Should have been on the night TD2 was declared.


Though, I ultimately ended up believing they did the right thing. I just wanted to see more consistency with other storms was all.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Should have been on the night TD2 was declared.


plzs dont Quote him hes doing this too make other bloger mad am all so starting too see this has a personal attacks on a other blog Quoting him this makes thing even more wors then they are
Quoting CoffinWood:


I'll believe it when I see it...
Yep me too. Everything BP has told us has underplayed the spill and its consequences.
Quoting Tazmanian:


plzs dont Quote him hes doing this too make other bloger mad am all so starting too see this has a personal attacks on a other blog Quoting him this makes thing even more wors then they are


No more quoting for me. I think you're right.
2112. beell
Levi, I can maybe see how my "last word" comment may have been perceived in a negative fashion. All I meant was I had come to the end of my questions for the night and you could move on to something else.

There...now I can sleep.
2113. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Levi, I can maybe see how my "last word" comment may have been perceived in a negative fashion. All I meant was I had come to the end of my questions for the night and you could move on to something else.

There...now I can sleep.


Oh it's all good Beell. A little too much tension in here tonight. You know I always enjoy conversing with you. Have a good night =)
2114. centex
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Should have been on the night TD2 was declared.
I was and levi may have been still following LL swirl to the north. He had whole blog wondering why NHC and models were following another system. Do you guys remember the confusion. I was not confused and NHC was not confused, only WU blog lead by levi was confused.
Quoting centex:
I think you know details but don't know how to apply it. It takes experience. Keep up the study because you have potential but I can out forecast you using just internet images. I know 1/10 the science but get forecast better than you. I question when you give poor explanation, like the dmax/dmin thing you did a poor job and was not learning experience for bloggers. From a senior I'm just trying to get you on a better track. Lesson is you’re arrogant and forecaster needs to be scientific and apply experience.. You’ve let the blog respect get to your head, especially considering how your forecasts which have been wrong and differ from professionals who have been right. There are several other professional bloggers who don’t make your mistakes. Just challenging you to up your game it does not impress me.




What the heck is wrong with this dude centex? I pray he gets banned permanently... Seriously Ive never seen anything this ridiculous over the long years Ive been on here.
2116. beell
Quoting CoffinWood:


Hmm, what do you make of this latest story?

Feds say new cap could contain Gulf leak by Monday



Stock price soars on a Friday with the news(around $32US)
Investors make the most of a bad situation, and have a nice weekend.
2117. JRRP
NGP
Link
Jedkins I like centex, and I've seen much, much worse. LOL.

We got to 101 today. Hottest since 1998.
can we Plzs stop : Quoteing centex all your doing is feeding him
Quoting beell:



Stock price soars on a Friday (around $32US)
Investors make the most of a bad situation, and have a nice weekend.


Do I detect a cynical note? If so, I think you're right on the ball.
.
Centex, everyone makes mistakes. Try not to focus too much on the mistakes Levi has done; focus on the efficacy of the majority of his forecasts and the importance of his valuable contributions here.
For any new bloggers, centex is a liar, don't listen to him. I probably didn't need to warn though, cause there obviously is no reason to give credit to someone this hateful.

At any rate, Levi does a real great job, and centex will be gone soon enough, so everything will settle down soon enough.
2124. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



re ported


LOL Taz you report everything? J/k, dont report me :S
LOL!
Quoting Jedkins01:
For any new bloggers, centex is a liar, don't listen to him. I probably didn't need to warn though, cause there obviously is no reason to give credit to someone this hateful.

At any rate, Levi does a real great job, and centex will be gone soon enough, so everything will settle down soon enough.



thank you sir
Quoting JLPR2:


LOL Taz you report everything? J/k, dont report me :S
LOL!



am the Admin helper

2128. xcool
tropical weather,plz
2114.

I don't know what LL swirl your talking about because I was lurking all day and did not see him talking about that.
2130. shakaka
Jealousy is a common theme in this blog, happens every year. I'd rather have the respected bloggers be people who have actually set foot on a college campus since this is a highly complex field of study but it is what it is. They do a good job regardless and in the end that's what matters.

Then again, I wouldn't know what a good analysis looks like since this isn't my field. Nothing wrong with pointing out "mistakes" or contending certain points but leave the personal attacks out of it.
Quoting xcool:
tropical weather,plz



why lol dont see any thing too track right now un less you want too track mode runs
2132. xcool
Tazmanian lol :)
Quoting extreme236:
2114.

I don't know what LL swirl your talking about because I was lurking all day and did not see him talking about that.



this Ignore him plzs your this feeding him
2134. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



am the Admin helper



Ah good, that sounds fun, maybe I should remove the dust from my report buttons and start using them :)
Good night everyone, especially Centex and Levi.
2136. Levi32
Quoting centex:
I was and levi may have been still following LL swirl to the north. He had whole blog wondering why NHC and models were following another system. Do you guys remember the confusion. I was not confused and NHC was not confused, only WU blog lead by levi was confused.


Go watch my video from that day lol. You're completely mis-interpreting it.

Heck here it is:

night futuremet!
As the blog turns.. Grothar are you out there?
Why did firefox pitch a fit when I tried to open the navy website?
2140. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:



Go watch my video from that day lol. You're completely mis-interpreting it.

Heck here it is:





A couple of things I missed that day were that only a portion of that surface circulation would make it to NE Texas/SW LA and the southern part hung back over the area of greatest pressure falls, which did allow the system to eventually get vertically stacked with part of the old surface circulation, which reformed into a new one that became the closed surface low.
2141. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:
Good night everyone, especially Centex and Levi.


Good night!
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Why did firefox pitch a fit when I tried to open the navy website?


I used to get unsecured site messages from firefox when I try opening that site too.

Night y'all.
2143. Levi32
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Why did firefox pitch a fit when I tried to open the navy website?


Their certificate is and always has been "not trustworthy" according to web browers, but of course it is. They just won't fix that problem. Firefox will complain but you can get to the website if you prompt it to proceed anyway.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Jedkins I like centex, and I've seen much, much worse. LOL.

We got to 101 today. Hottest since 1998.


hahaha well Ive been on here a while, I guess I thankfully miss the worst of the worst then! lol


at any rate, wow 101? That's pretty bad! We had a lot of 98's and 99's last month in june, but never quite 100, that's a really hard number to achieve along the Florida west coast.

Last couple days have felt like spring, highs around 90 and dewpoints got as low as 65 with afternoon mixing due to very dry air mass aloft.


Man after having over 9 inches of rain in just 1 week. We are now in a disturbingly dry air mass. The PWAT reached as low as 1.03 at Tampa yesterday which is just horrible!

This is like last year, we just don't get the daily thunderstorms like we used to, we get a deep trough that soaks us for a while, then a deep high follows and dries us out a while.


Its starting to get more mid-latitude like in Florida, the winters have gotten colder, the summers have gotten hotter, and the winter and spring have gotten wetter, and the summer and fall have gotten a little drier. There seems to be less distinguishing between wet and dry seasons, and more extreme winter lows and more extreme summer highs...

Hopefully this is isn't a long term trend, I don't like mid-latitude climates at all, I like the tropics.-

2145. JLPR2
2144. Jedkins01 1:28 AM AST on July 10, 2010

Wow, its been awhile since I have seen you around here or maybe I'm not on when you're on? XD

Well, its nice to see familiar faces or in this case, handles. :D
Wow! Are you kidding me??? Well, it's official Levi, you've made the big time at last. You've got your first official lunatic stalker/hater. Guess we know why nobody talked to him/her or it on the playground. Which is where this crap belongs anyway. Hope it didn't cloud your view of all us old timers. Lol. So I take it not much happening in the tropics. Guess I'll read back farther and see what everyone was blogging about. Have a good one y'all. :)
Quoting JLPR2:
2144. Jedkins01 1:28 AM AST on July 10, 2010

Wow, its been awhile since I have seen you around here or maybe I'm not on when you're on? XD

Well, its nice to see familiar faces or in this case, handles. :D



hahaha its probably because I'm in college these days, whereas before I was a high schooler with way too much extra time. Even being an outdoor boy with a lot of good friends, I still always had way too much extra time to blab about weather on here.


I actually do check in here very often, I'm just usually not on the computer for more than 10 minutes or so lol.

I remember you though! I wonder how many originals are left? I was on here the first year Weather Underground created blogs! I'm an old timer around here, I even got banned a couple months ago for getting a little too upset at one of those angry bloggers like centex! lol

I guess being a blog old timer must be like being an old timer in real life, you think because your old you can say whatever the heck you want as long as its for a just cause! lol
2147. centex 5:38 AM GMT on July 10, 2010 Hide this comment.
I back NHC and point out bloggers who don't and the blog devils kill me. Will no longer mention names. They are not worth effort and can't convince them following a Mansion type.
Action: Quote | Ignore User



POOF up up and a way you go
Jedkins, yeah we get 100s about 1 out of 3 summers, and usually more than one day when we do have them. But have never seen 3 100 degree days in a row.

It is hard to get to 100 here, because the seabreeze usually kicks in when it is that hot. The seabreeze actually did kick in today--we had the temp fall from 101 to 91 between 4:30 and 6:30, then the seabreeze failed and the temp warmed back up to 94 by 8:15 before falling again.

I do think this night will stay above 80, however.

Link

The west wind is stronger tonight. It will be interesting to see if storms form and keep us from getting to 100 again. Or if we really soar up to 102 .
2151. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:



hahaha its probably because I'm in college these days, whereas before I was a high schooler with way too much extra time. Even being an outdoor boy with a lot of good friends, I still always had way too much extra time to blab about weather on here.


I actually do check in here very often, I'm just usually not on the computer for more than 10 minutes or so lol.

I remember you though! I wonder how many originals are left? I was on here the first year Weather Underground created blogs! I'm an old timer around here, I even got banned a couple months ago for getting a little too upset at one of those angry bloggers like centex! lol

I guess being a blog old timer must be like being an old timer in real life, you think because your old you can say whatever the heck you want as long as its for a just cause! lol


haha! Yeah, high school allowed me to be on here more frequently, college is eating my time too. XD
Yet I somehow manage to log in everyday and check this blog, take pictures to keep my Wuphotos active while checking my Facebook O.o and then to study, I guess I'll go mad eventually. LOL
But I'm not that old on here LOL just three short years. XD
2152. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:
2147. centex 5:38 AM GMT on July 10, 2010 Hide this comment.
I back NHC and point out bloggers who don't and the blog devils kill me. Will no longer mention names. They are not worth effort and can't convince them following a Mansion type.
Action: Quote | Ignore User



POOF up up and a way you go
I'm impressed.
102 or higher is very rare here. Our hottest day ever

The most 100+ days in a summer season seems to be 4 in 1998.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Jedkins, yeah we get 100s about 1 out of 3 summers, and usually more than one day when we do have them.

It is hard to get to 100 here, because the seabreeze usually kicks in when it is that hot. The seabreeze actually did kick in today--we had the temp fall from 101 to 91 between 4:30 and 6:30, then the seabreeze failed and the temp warmed back up to 94 by 8:15 before falling again.

I do think this night will stay above 80, however.

Link

The west wind is stronger tonight. It will be interesting to see if storms form and keep us from getting to 100 again. Or if we really soar up to 102+.



Man that is crazy! That's usually what keeps us cooler too as the sea breeze, there were a few days back in june I thought we might just top 100, but the sea breeze held us steady every time between 97 and 99! In fact my weather station several times came ONE TENTH of a degree from 100 but never quite got there! lol

Over the 7 years Ive had a weather station, its never hit 100 at my house. I'm thankful to live by the coast in central Florida!

Honestly though, no matter what the numbers say, chances are it still feels hotter in Florida, whether it be the sun's intensity or the deep tropical moisture always floating in the deep tropical moisture around as well as all the swamps and wet lands.

But you're in southern Giorgia, which won't be very different from Florida, so I can imagine 101 is a huge deal there too, it must be really oppressive!
2156. JLPR2
Hello you suspicious looking area LOL
2157. JLPR2
Rio Piedras, San Juan, Puerto Rico (PWS)
81.5 °F / 27.5 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 76 °F / 24 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.99 in / 1015.5 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F / 31 °C

Thank Goodness for A/C!
2158. xcool
:0
Quoting JLPR2:
Hello you suspicious looking area LOL


ITS FIXIN TO BE A CATEGORY 5 AND HIT US DADDY! GRAB THE DAGGUM 12 GUAGE AND GIT EM BEFORE HE GROWS TOO BIG OFF ALL THE WATER!
2160. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:


ITS FIXIN TO BE A CATEGORY 5 AND HIT US DADDY! GRAB THE DAGGUM 12 GUAGE AND GIT EM BEFORE HE GROWS TOO BIG OFF ALL THE WATER!


I'll just hide under a bucket LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:
Hello you suspicious looking area LOL


As long as he's not winking two creepy little yellow eyes at you again...
It was not as bad as it could have been, Jedkins---the west winds mixed down drier air from above and the dewpoint was 65 at peak temps today. 101 with a dewpoint of 65 is 31% humidity, and the heat index was 105.

Back on our hottest day in 1986, it was 104, with a dewpoint of 72. The heat index was 115.

Have seen higher heat indexes than that when we have had a seabreeze raise dewpoints to 81/82, with the temperature 93/96. Then the heat index has reached 120---highest I can remember is 122.
2163. JLPR2
Quoting CoffinWood:


As long as he's not winking two creepy little yellow eyes at you again...


haha! yeah...
no creepy yellow eyes please :3
Levi is quite good. He's studying the tropics with all his might. Doing research on related weather events leading up to Alex's formation is impressive. But yeah, lol, felt like i shoudl sign into the account to say that.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It was not as bad as it could have been, Jedkins---the west winds mixed down drier air from above and the dewpoint was 65 at peak temps today. 101 with a dewpoint of 65 is 31% humidity, and the heat index was 105.

Back on our hottest day in 1986, it was 104, with a dewpoint of 72. The heat index was 115.

Have seen higher heat indexes than that when we have had a seabreeze raise dewpoints to 81/82, with the temperature 93/96. Then the heat index has reached 120---highest I can remember is 122.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It was not as bad as it could have been, Jedkins---the west winds mixed down drier air from above and the dewpoint was 65 at peak temps today. 101 with a dewpoint of 65 is 31% humidity, and the heat index was 105.

Back on our hottest day in 1986, it was 104, with a dewpoint of 72. The heat index was 115.

Have seen higher heat indexes than that when we have had a seabreeze raise dewpoints to 81/82, with the temperature 93/96. Then the heat index has reached 120---highest I can remember is 122.



Yeah usually on the hottest days the dry air does mix down... But every now on then you get the worst combination between muggy air from the seabreeze but yet never really cooled off by it...

We had several days with the heat index was around 110 to 120 last month. It got that bad in June last year too!

It seems June is the hottest month around here in the summer. We just get too much rain around here the rest of the summer months. Like now, we had so much rain last 2 weeks, that this hot dry spell last few days isn't turning out that bad. The ground has been rain cooled excessively, to where the sun seems to focus more on moisture evaporation rather then rising the air temperature.



Quoting JLPR2:


I'll just hide under a bucket LOL!


*JLPR hides under bucket*

El Conando "Pffft get your own bucket".
Quoting JLPR2:
Hello you suspicious looking area LOL


It has some spuriously spurious activity.
2169. xcool
lol
Quoting ElConando:


It has some spuriously spurious activity.



Nah, looks like the GFS is just developing spurious areas of low pressure again... Which means it must be discounted from the forecast.
2171. JLPR2
Quoting ElConando:


*JLPR hides under bucket*

El Conando "Pffft get your own bucket".


haha!
*Notices another bucket with a Florida Flag and a shower curtain on the side, sigh, I sit on a chair waiting for the cane to come and get me.*
LOL XD
2172. JLPR2
Not going away, eh...
It'll probably be gone in the morning *crosses fingers*

2173. xcool
2174. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows absolutely zilch affecting the USA through July 20th.
Bonnie...where R U?


South America view of the 00Z ECMWF which shows the east ATL and the coast of Africa.
new blog
2176. hydrus
Quoting JLPR2:
Hello you suspicious looking area LOL
Yes. It is a healthy little blob.