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Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:33 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.

Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.

A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks to those who have commented so far!

I'll be back in the morning. Good night all.
well i am tired beyond tired so see u guys later.
I am concerned anytime there is extended convection in the gulf or Caribe this time of year. As a break fro the tropics just got back from Calagary, it wa snowing!
cattlebaroness, it made landfall East of Pensacola. Southern FL is getting thunderstorms from a tropical low in the Caribbean--it's not from TD10. Good luck with your goat.
1005. beell
a good days work 456.
thanks
good night terranova and weather456. sleep well.
1007. Patrap

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
Big Pic,click to enlarge

Link
I haven't counted this season out yet...September is the peak month and just a few years ago (cant remember exactly which one)we went into December and beyond the Single letters of the Alphabet into the 2nd set of names.
1009. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI
20frame loop


Link
Oooh, good link Patrap. Looks like the Gom blob is dying.
what do ya'll think bout the blob in the NW Csribbean, do any of ya'll that it will develop into a system in the GOM???
1013. FTWbuoy
Zoomiami: Posted By: FTWbuoy at 11:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.


The mutiple vortices the pros on here wre referring to, the center one evaporated, the other one is making rain in GA, and the other one still looks like it is tiny but out there. Any local updates on the South Florida blobs, the cetner GOMEX and the wind alignment further S. in the Caribb
the south fla blob is giving us some nice rain - my grass is in heaven!
Hey LAbayourambler, are you in that band, Louisiana Bayou Ramblers?

to answer your question: yes, there is talk of the Caribbean disturbance crossing the Yucatan and entering the GOM bringing alot of rain to TX and LA. That's all they're saying for now.
I think it was 2005 that we surpassed the alphabet and started the greek alphabet wasn't it?
Yes tiggeriffic, we went into the Roman Numerals
Another system in the GOM.

Conplements of my workplace KLFY TV 10 Lafayette, LA
truecajun some of the models have this going up into the gulf others don't.At any rate it should be watched. I am a displaced cajun in Tex
BAMM model predicts in 4 days that Post-TD Ten will go to Ontario. Then a day later, NEWFOUNDLAND!
1021. Drakoen
If anything thats gonna be from the Caribbean. Anyways good night everyone.
1022. viman
I think it was the Greek alphabet
1023. Patrap
UNISYS 10-day GFSx Link
something like alpha, beta, gamma, epsilon, etc, cant remember after that or exactly how many but I know we had a butt load of storms, even though not all of them impacted land, it was a season to watch.
Could this possibly become a TS or hurricane??? I know some people are going think it's too early to know yet, here on the Gulf coast,it's never too early after Katrina.
1026. beell
treauxcajun-what part? 15 yrs in Morgan City-Houston now.
yes, Larambler, that developing Low is what I'm concerned about. however, one of the guys on here who is pretty knowledgeable said that we should not worry about it too much. that was earlier tonight. I'm still watching it closely.

I miss KLFY. We just moved from Broussard to Brusly. I LOVED Broussard--was born and raised in New Iberia.
Ooops, yes the Greek alphabet, not Roman numerals--LOL!
Labayourambler at 8:52 PM CDT on September 21, 2007.
Curious bayou when was this done?
Why do you suppose Fox News is still calling 10 Jerry?

Link
Rambler, right now the models say TS, but it really doesn't have much room to get very big. Hopefully, it won't be any worse than a usual summer pop up the east and gulf coast can get daily (here, winds over 45 and gusts over 60 regularly), it will just last a little longer
1032. viman
lol
TD10 reform over SFL or what, lol. This thing has been a challenge from the beginning. Easternmost C-ATL wave, or waves that is, looking interesting tonight.
LOL cajun, thought it was a typo, seeing too many numbers with all these lows are ya? Ha Ha
1035. FTWbuoy
24 hour windmaps ULL show some interesting relocations of low pressure

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/TropicalWinds24.aspx
yes, my mind is on all these numbers and latitudes and longitudes--hasn't been alphabetical in a while. Plus, I decided it was time for a beer!
1037. C2News
My blog has been updated including the very latest news on my future and Donna Hicken
first, I'm goin to cajun's house...next, I know they are weeks away, but what do the waves in the middle of the Atlantic look like in the way of coming into any major shear?
Posted By: truecajun at 8:56 PM CDT on September 21, 2007.

yes, Larambler, that developing Low is what I'm concerned about. however, one of the guys on here who is pretty knowledgeable said that we should not worry about it too much. that was earlier tonight. I'm still watching it closely.

I miss KLFY. We just moved from Broussard to Brusly. I LOVED Broussard--was born and raised in New Iberia.

I am sure you know this, but, just in case you didn't KLFY has a great little website @... www.klfy.com
Pressure reading of 29.73" at buoy 42056 appears to have been in error.
Posted By: Labayourambler at 1:54 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Could this possibly become a TS or hurricane???


Of course it could, if it even makes the Gulf in the first place; but, when you say "it's never too early", it is "too early" when you're asking for opinions about the possible development about something which isn't even developing. Any answer you get is a PURE GUESS, which you know anyway, so why ask the question in the first place?
1042. beell
I kinda believe the buoy pressure-passage of the sfc trof moving west.
I used to visit either Katc3's site or maybe Klfy's. I can't remember. either way, i'll give klfy's a visit.

well, good night everyone. putting the children to bed then heading off, myself.
Winds from the Navy TC page, depression force in the ne quadrant of that blob in the middle of the GOM and no winds in the middle (COC?)
Actually I looked back at it because the 8 o'clock NHC discussion said that there were no significant pressure falls in the area.
Thought so. Did the same thing 24 hours ago.
Thankful in Mobile that TD10 didn't develop. Season far from over. 1985 saw two late season canes in GOM- Juan just before Halloween and Kate just before Thanksgiving.
I know rxcyclone, we were just talking about 2005 when we left the alphabet and hit the greek alphabet
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:10 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Pressure reading of 29.73" at buoy 42056 appears to have been in error.


The thought so comment was about this, thought I pasted it.
1050. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220218
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACES PRESSURES
ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.

A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
1051. beell
I looked at it after Patrap posted the link-it looks to be in about the right place-so i bought into it. Still gotta get up out of the Caribb to be a threat up here.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE



good by TD 10
Sorry... Image did not load last post... here it is


Wind Chart for TD10 - Navy WebsiteWind Chart for TD10 - Navy Website
tonight is the 18th anniversary of Hugo's visit to Charleston...
1055. beell
Anyway, if you believe the data, it may indicate that the feature is still there and moving west-slow or no development noted could still be a true statement.
thanks for the reminder, i was here, my oldest son who is now in college was just a baby...the wind actually came thru the sewer systems, into our apartment thru the garbage disposal and dishwasher...scary night...the roof was ripped off the building I lived in too, thank God I lived down stairs
Posted By: Patrap at 8:54 PM CDT on September 21, 2007.

UNISYS 10-day GFSx Link

Am I seeing this right? It looks to me like it is showing a high that is going to be bopping us in the next 10 days???
HapiVali TD 10 is no more the navy site will take it down soon
my daughter turned 18 today....that was one long night....
1060. C2News
RIP TD10
1061. scoopa
where is thing going, I live in Bay St. Louis Ms., and I'm am trying to plan my day!!!!!!!!!!!!
what hospital were you at presslord?
I find it interesting that so many think the season is about over.
After September 30th we have had the following number of named storms.
2006-1
2005-11
2004-4
2003-6
2002-2
2001-7
2000-7
With La Nina moving in my quess would be about 7 more named storms this year.
Any opinons?
1064. beell
Sounds like Hugo is a four letter word that can mean many things to you press.
Congrats on the 18th-a milestone for both of you.
yes, I know that 10 is gone, but I was not talking about 10 persay, but the center of circulation in the center of the GOM, when you look at that image, you can see the winds circling around that, with the strongest in the ne quadrant (typical). This is the blob that people are beginning to shift their sights on (as well as the Caribbean feature).
tigger...I sent you a wu-mail...don't wanna bore these folks with Hugo war stories....
Cocoa I will say 5
Presslord, earlier Admin had a notice saying that posting on the blog that you sent an email to someone will get you banned, just an FYI. Anyway, looks like it will be a quiet weekend tropically. Although that low east of Bermuda I think has the best chance of developing into something over the weekend.
1069. scoopa
quick ya'll im going to bed, where is this thing going
Posted By: presslord at 2:23 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

tonight is the 18th anniversary of Hugo's visit to Charleston...


My wife was pregnant with our first. I had a pair of airline tickets that had to be used by a time certain, so we planned on using them for a last hurrah, a trip to the Virgin Islands before she got too far in the pregnancy to travel.

Hugo knocked out all travel through Puerto Rico and to the VI. So, with one day's notice, I had a travel agent reroute us to a resort on the Mexican Gulf of California coast.

My wife was miserable the whole time. She wanted to be in the Virgin Islands, she didn't want to be in Mexico, she felt very self-conscious in a bathing suit, etc. And, it was all Hugo's fault!

I know that's not quite the same as having Hugo hit our home, but it did make for some memories.
Previous models had it racing through the midwest and over the great lakes, picking up its winds and speed as it got close to great lakes area
Posted By: scoopa at 2:37 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.
quick ya'll im going to bed, where is this thing going


It's dead, jim.
LOL Dallas, Hugo also hit WV still as a cat 1 hurricane where my mother's fam lives...my brother in Colorado was calling me in the middle of the thing till phones went out saying he was watching it on tv...Hugo is something I never want to see again in my life
1074. beell
Sorry DG-I really shouldn't...

My wife was pregnant with our first...My wife was miserable the whole time. She wanted to be in the Virgin Islands...

Ok-i'm going to get banned soon-
Alt>Ctrl>Del
G'night
1075. H2PV
WISH YOU HAD THIS??? 93B India, Now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

presslord, reciprocated without using the no no word
ya know...and this is certainly on topic...but...as bad as living thru a big storm can be....living thru the aftermath is worse...anybody who "gets off" on the thought of a hurricane hitting has never lived thru it...you NEVER hear ANYONE in Charleston who lived thru Hugo speak of "riding it out" thru another one....
With La Nina moving in my quess would be about 7 more named storms this year.
Any opinons?


I would say that we will likely have at least 5 more storms; on the other hand, I feel less confident of that than before because global conditions seem unfavorable for tropical cyclones this year (as in 1977, which had record low activity worldwide); the East Pacific has had only 9 storms and the West Pacific only 12 storms, and not just that, the ACE's have been incredibly low (the latter goes for the Atlantic as well). I could be wrong about the similarity to 1977 though - after all, many La Nina Atlantic seasons had half of their storms after today's date, which would bring us to 18 storms if this year follows the pattern (also consider than in 2005 the most active month by far was October, not September, and a La Nina developed over the 2005-2006 winter).

Also, people seem to think that La Nina is just developing; it is not:



The threshold is -0.5 in the Nino 3.4 region (Australia says -0.8 in the Nino 3 region). For comparison, 1995 was -0.5 for August-October (the peak of the hurricane season), which is evidently going to be far weaker than the current La Nina. The Nino 1+2 region has been at -0.5 or lower since the end of February, and indeed, the UKMET office says that La Nina developed in February, and is also responsible for the extreme weather around the globe this year:

Combined with a shift in the jet stream, a belt of air that races around the Earth's atmosphere, cooler water temperatures in the Pacific caused by La Nina have sparked some of the most turbulent weather this century.

Experts have been stunned by the extreme weather and number of floods around the world this year. The devastation has, however, provided scientists with an unprecedented insight into how the world's weather is altered by the La Nina effect and should assist them in predicting future disasters. Meteorologists believe that a sudden switch from a warm El Nino to a cold La Nina in February is behind the monsoons that ravaged Asia and brought droughts to southern Europe and torrential rain to the UK. It may also have helped fuel powerful hurricanes in the Caribbean.
beell, LOL!!!
1080. KRL
Well, the season is proving to be another strange one indeed.

Good thing now as we head into October, if any landfalls happen, at least it'll be cooler outside, so if you lose power, you won't roast, like what happens in August storms.



You got that one right!!! No power, no clean water, no gas to put in your demolished car to go get the stuff, baby formula going bad because there is no way to keep it cold...and believe it or not...I WAS prepared...made ice for days, candles, canned food, etc...but our apartment building was destroyed...day after the storm we were told we had 2 days to get out because it was not safe, where do you go when the rest of the city is destroyed too...live the aftermath like hugo, andrew and katrina and you would never be a hurricane junkie again
1082. beell
ya, i thought it was a good one friend.
Catch ya later
1083. H2PV
Posted By: presslord at 2:47 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.
ya know...and this is certainly on topic...but...as bad as living thru a big storm can be....living thru the aftermath is worse...anybody who "gets off" on the thought of a hurricane hitting has never lived thru it...you NEVER hear ANYONE in Charleston who lived thru Hugo speak of "riding it out" thru another one....


There's one worse: not living through it. You never hear anyone who failed to live through Hugo speak of "riding it out" either.
ya know....you're right...
Thanks MichaelSTL
hey presslord, how bout Floyd, thing didn't even hit here and because of bad planning by our wonderful gov at the time, people died on the interstate trying to leave
the Floyd episode actually foretold, in some ways, what happend in NOLA
check out the Gom blob
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
Evening all

Good to see you Press, so is your daughters birthday today or tomorrow. Also, not sure if you have seen this or not, but I think I would have flipped a coin between your situation and theirs.

Hugo Story...
i agree 200%, brb, dog gotta go out
oops, guess if I had read back far enough I would have seen that it was today :~)
hey sj....Kinda a sobering thing to remember what happened here...
Hey SJ. Check your admin@sj.com account, I sent you a treat.
I figured that story would hit home with you press, being bluewater and all...
Just got done replying to you atmo!

Can't wait to here what you do though. I would say the other side of the atmosphere has always been something I have marveled. Pale Blue Dot by Segan really put it all in perspective for me when I was about 15.
presslord, if i remember correctly, first fla evacuated (north of course), then it was GA (again north) then charleston, no one could go back south and no one could travel east, but yet the gov said we did not reverse i26 during hugo and we wont for floyd...then harved jacobs from the news, flew to columbia by heli with the footage from hugo to prove him wrong, 10 hours into the evac they finally opened the other side of 26...from west ashley going out 61 the back way it took us 9 hours to get to summerville, a 30 minute ride
sj...that's a fascinating stroy...what a pretty boat...8 miles up the Wando was not a good choice of anchoage
10-4....RIP TD10. La Nina be nice to everyone.
I see we have a good Chas showing in here tonight! How's it going tigger and welcome :~)

Your S'ville trip was worse then my Downtown to GC trip. Took 3.5 hrs and we took the back way through Park Circle. I never did intend on leaving town though and if I had I am sure I would have changed my mind after that trip from Mike's Bikes to the Creek...
2 years ago tonight:

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
.


Interestingly, the highest flight level winds found at the time were lower than the highest in Dean or Felix (which is why I am very certain that at least Dean is going to be upgraded post-storm):

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.
Well press, they lived, so not the worst choice I guess....
I posted this @ 7:57 CDT:

"Here's thought, if TD 10 rotated around the mid to upper level circulation in the gulf, which is still there, first to the north, then NW and now more west. Based on radar. Will this continue to rotate toward the SW?"

Now looking at the NHC current cone of error, not so far fetched after all.
sj, thanks for the welcome, i live west ashley, during floyd i lived in a mobile home, had no choice but to leave..during hugo i was in N. chas in an apt...didnt have the knowledge to leave...if it is cat 3 and looks like it is going to 4...i am outta here! not making same mistake twice...btw, what part of chas you from?
my most poignant memory of the aftermath...aside from my daughter...was about 3 1/2 weeks later...I had a gin and tonic....with ICE in it...the ice was such a treat..I can still taste/feel it...oh well...so much for not boring these folks with Hugo stories
What is off the coast of California near LA? Is it the remains of an old hurricane? Looks like lots of clouds and rain wrapping around a center, almost subtropical.

Anyway, just curious.
is the blog lagging or is no one typing...just wondering
tigger, grew up in S'ville. Family was from Folly and spent my first four there. Grandma owned the drug store out there years ago. Live in Goose Creek now.
We stayed with the boat to prevent looting despite attempts by the Coast Guard to evacuate us. With power, food, water and phone we were better off than most people ashore.

From that story, found this a little comical. They are right though. Many would have traded places to have phone power and water...
sj, my brother lives between MC and Sville...he used to live in GC. Know folly well, I do all the artwork for the Holiday inn on folly...know the owners and the mgr
sj, what marina was it the the boats were stacked...was it Duncan?
Likely most of them tigger, but I know that Duncan was a mess. I currently work right over in that area on corporate rd and we have a aerial pic showing our building right after and you can see the boat pile in it.
i think it was duncan that was on the cover of the memorial book, cant remember. So do you think la nina will keep the season like it has been or a repeat of 2005?
Not sure about 2005, but I think we will see a few more systems this season. Maybe one or two more Sept, and 2-3 Oct...
triggerific

i do not imagine 07 will get so busy it will compare to 05. it will be some years before we have so many strong canes in 1 year. the enviromental factors have to be lined up so precisely perfect to obtain a year like 05. the global warmers want everyone to think 05 will repeat itself year after year, but the truth of it is take a look @ 06 less active than average season, 07 average season (so far), i dont think 07 is done but there is no way it will in any way compare to 05.
stormjunkie while im on thanks for making that model tutorial page, really informative. great website and thanks for your knowledge about storms.

after ivan my family lost their house, now im our family weather advisor; but my knowledge comes only from others sharing
I think we could see several in November as well; remember that the biggest impact of El Nino and La Ninas are in the Caribbean, which is why last year ended so early (activity mainly shifts into the Caribbean in October and November). 2001 set records for the most hurricanes in November; 1999 had the strongest November storm (almost a Cat 5 less than two weeks before the end of the season), November is also climatologically more active than June or July:

Folly Beach Pre Hugo
Folly Beach pre Hugo.

Folly Post Hugo
Folly Beach Post Hugo

Ben Sawyer Bridge
Ben Sawyer Bridge
Looking for carribean blob, can't find it but do see a low over Haiti and DR heading west in to the blob
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/storms/gulf_wv_loop.gif
gales of november will be calling
the global warmers want everyone to think 05 will repeat itself year after year

ROTFL!!!

Well, I am probably one of those "global warmers" because of what I believe - but I also know better and I know that 2005 has nothing to do with global warming as far as NUMBERS go, but when you look at intensity and global storms as well (again, forget about numbers, which have stayed pretty constant for all storms), it is a different story... wherever did the misconception that GW will cause storms to increase in number come from??? More Cat 4-5s, yes, but not more total storms. The Atlantic is also one of the worst basins to look at as far as global trends go because it is so wildly variable, far more so than any other ocean basin, it can have from 1 storm to 28 storms in a season, and sometimes within a year or so. For this year, the two Cat 5s (which has happened only 3 other times in history, most recently just a couple years ago, and never before for landfalls) is the most significant thing to happen, and the most anomalous. Of course, they didn't hit the United States, but then years like 2005 and 2004 are just as anomalous for their U.S. landfalls; people forget that the U.S. is not supposed to get hit like that every year, a few tropical storms and a minor hurricane (like this year; 2000 and 2001 didn't even have any hurricanes hit the U.S.) but not 3-4 majors and 6-8 storms.
1122. V26R
Okay whats wrong with this picture
almost 6 minutes without a comment???
What did I miss?
1124. V26R
Eveing SJ
Evening Michael
Well, don't know who to thank...

Wx cleared in Niceville for about 5 hours - long enough to get the football game in - and then the skies opened up again - looks like we've got on/off showers for the rest of the night.

Is that a second circulation headed toward Mobile?
stormj...you're killin me with those pix...I'd forgotten the Goat Island boat rubble
1127. V26R
Second Circulation?
Only thing I see on the radar is the main remnents of STD 10 or TD 10 whatever they
were calling that mess

Link
Evening, SJ! You must be feeling better, GR8 posts! Good to see you back and busy!
1129. V26R
Evening MLC Really quiet here now comapired to last few nights
Look at the vis loop Link

Around 29.8N 88.0W - just an estimate - the grid isn't very fine on the lat/lon overlay...
Evening mlc and V2 :~)

Still hacking, but feeling much better.

tigger, I think this is the boat pile you were talking about

Boat Pile
Heya MLC - MrN here - this is my NoAds handle...

What's up next - anything?
Downtown Charleston
Downtown Charleston

Slow in here tonight, hope y'all don't mind the pics!
so where are the global warming wishcasters? IS TD10 a sign of things to come?!? couldn't resist..
1135. V26R
Flor1d1an, think what you're looking at is the ULL or maybe the ending of convection out over the gulf dieing out?
Tell me if you see it here


Link
1136. V26R
SJ is that from Hugo???
This is something that I came across a couple months ago, mainly regarding hurricane landfalls in Texas (from 2006, before El Nino developed):

One of the researchers today -- and since the conference is "off the record" I am going to withhold names -- presented fairly compelling evidence that a La Nina is particularly bad for the Gulf Coast and Mexico. The scientist broke down storms in the Atlantic basin into three groups:

Cluster A: Storms that form out in the Atlantic and typically curve into the Eastern U.S. or back out into the ocean.
Cluster B: Storms that form between the Canary Islands and Florida, and generally strike Florida or the Gulf Coast.
Cluster C: Storms that form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, and impact the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida.

Based on the talk, during La Nina years, two bad things tend to happen for Texas. First of all, according to graphics shown at the conference, the paths of Cluster C storms shift westward, so instead of hitting Florida or even curving back into the Atlantic, they hit Mexico or southern Texas. The Bay of Campeche is incredibly active.

Secondly, the activity in Cluster C blows up during La Nina years.

By way of comparison, for "Cluster A" storms in recent decades, 52 storms formed during El Nino years and 39 during La Nina years. For "Cluster C" storms -- which are much more likely to strike Texas -- the opposite is true. Just 36 storms formed during El Nino years, versus 56 during La Nina.

One final thing: historical trends suggest not only an increased number of storms during La Nina, but that the storms which form tend to be stronger.


Notice that more storms form in the Gulf and Caribbean in La Nina years (indeed, almost all of the storms this year have developed in those areas, with four systems developing in the Gulf, even in 2005 only two storms developed in the Gulf, including depressions). In contrast, El Nino years have more storms developing out in the open Atlantic, in an almost inverse relationship to Gulf and Caribbean activity.
Cajun - we created TD10 with our hairdryers and Ford 450s...
Yep V2, everything I am posting is from Hugo, have no clue where that picture was taken though. I could recognize most anywhere in Charleston, but not on that day.
1141. V26R
Michael are the powres that be classifying this year as a La Nina year?
1142. V26R
Gee SJ cannot understand why you could not recognize any of it
Man that is a mess and a Half!
V2 - yep - that's it. Didn't realize it was a ULL, tho. Hopefully that was the last band that just passed thru here - actually had some heavy rain and wind - almost blew my cocktail napkin off the table...
Hey, SJ, GR8 pics, such historical registry!

uuuuuuuummmm, don't be wishcasting! lol

Consequently, I told CWhisperer the same thing, too! lol Told him he needed to be quiet about Ingrid (cause of what he had said earlier); otherwise, he'd be calling it up! lol
Charleston
Downtown Charleston
1147. V26R
Flor1
Looks like you better move undre cover
some more rain heading your way if your in Mobile
Well, here is part of a post that I made earlier:



The threshold is -0.5 in the Nino 3.4 region (Australia says -0.8 in the Nino 3 region). For comparison, 1995 was -0.5 for August-October (the peak of the hurricane season), which is evidently going to be far weaker than the current La Nina. The Nino 1+2 region has been at -0.5 or lower since the end of February, and indeed, the UKMET office says that La Nina developed in February, and is also responsible for the extreme weather around the globe this year:

Combined with a shift in the jet stream, a belt of air that races around the Earth's atmosphere, cooler water temperatures in the Pacific caused by La Nina have sparked some of the most turbulent weather this century.

Experts have been stunned by the extreme weather and number of floods around the world this year. The devastation has, however, provided scientists with an unprecedented insight into how the world's weather is altered by the La Nina effect and should assist them in predicting future disasters. Meteorologists believe that a sudden switch from a warm El Nino to a cold La Nina in February is behind the monsoons that ravaged Asia and brought droughts to southern Europe and torrential rain to the UK. It may also have helped fuel powerful hurricanes in the Caribbean.



This map shows anomalies below -3C in parts of the equatorial Pacific.
hello all , storm junkie is that first pic of the atlantic house resturant i used to work there in the 80s can not believe what it did had moved to denver that year so missed hugo my aunts and all went thru it thou wow what pics ty
Hey, SJ! Thanks for posting the pics! I surely hope we (no one) sees any more of these damned things and all the death and destruction they bring!
Welcome Pine :~)

Yes that was the Atlantic house. Can not remember the name of the one next two it though...
1152. V26R
Welcome Pinehurst

SJ/I'm turning in early Feel better

Michael have a nice night
You also Pinehurst

Nitey Nite All

''' -'-
I believe in global warming but as normal cycles in the global weather. If you believe in global warming as they want to sell it now days how can you explain that 500 hundred years ago in the year 1530, here in PR we had three storms that within 6 weeks that blew down half the houses in San Juan, P.R. and unroofed the remainder (1530, July 26, August 23, August 31) and seven years later in 1537, between July and August three hurricanes within 2 months in Puerto Rico; exact dates unknown. The weather was so rough that many settlers left PR. Explain that to me because back then there were no cars.
Here is a comparison between this year and the closest date from 1998, when the last strong La Nina developed (it persisted through 2001):

September 19, 1998:


September 20, 2007:


While the coldest anomalies in 1998 were colder, they are more widespread this year; the far eastern Pacific off South America was actually still well above normal, more like El Nino. Also, you can see how much the Arctic ice cap has melted since then.
mark 11.4n/17.2w area of interest
Holliday Inn Myrtle Beach
Holiday Inn Myrtle Beach

Hugo Humor
im back, cell phone rang...
sj, the one you could not recognize last page was downtown near calhoun and king...where the parade is at christmas...i have the memorial book...been a long time, we are overdue for a big one as well as an earth quake
1158. SirCane
TD 10 has been non eventful here in Pensacola. Had some afternoon showers but that's it. Just one hyped up system that was a dud. THANK GOODNESS
I thought that might be where it was tigger, just so hard to tell!

I am off for the night. See everyone tomorrow :~)
ty all for that still cannot believe the damage it caused livin in colrado it was not easy back then to keep up , but i do remember callin the mets at the local tv stations to ask them to keep me up to date channel 2 was the best he and i became hurricane buds every sea
son cant think of his name great met thou
Yeah, the 'eye' of TD10 has come and gone, and had I not visited this website, I would have never known there was a tropical system passing by.
Have a good sleep, SJ!

--also, bloggers, if you haven't seen SJ's tutorial on models, please visit his site and go through the tutorials which has a vid and great personal instruction. It's solid and very informative!
nite sj

pine, what part of colorado...my brother used to live in Durango...called me in the middle of hugo...i didn't stay on the phone long..wonder why?
One last one and I am off to bed.

Inside the Holiday Inn in MYB
Inside Holiday Inn

Night all :~)
Must say TD 10 was a non-event for the area... Destin/Ft.Walton/Niceville. We had a few hard rainshowers... but nothing to write home about. We feel very lucky, but could have used more rain... Heck we had more severe weather last week with a passing storm!
take care and ty for the pics denver co tigger
the round holiday inn sj
i have another brother that lives in Casper, WY...he was in Durango when hugo hit too
Myrtle Beach Holiday in pine.

Ok, really out now. Y'all have a good night.

StormJunkie.com
1171. SirCane
I'll say one thing--Ivan was a beast here in Pensacola. Probably very similar to Hugo.
My bad pine, that Holiday Inn was in Myrtle Beach
Floridian, MrN....nwCarib, out from Bermuda, down around the Itcz maybe....more coming. Glad you made it home safe!
no wonder the atlantic house is not there it stood for over 90 years hazel did not hurt it thou hazel was mainly a nc storm i think, mama went thru it a tree fell on her parents house. tho back then they were mainly made of pinewood,, they cut themselves..
thanks all for the chat ,, the forum here is great and i think you all are better than the weather channel, and to think i wanted a job with them lol
lol pine...they should get their info from here...maybe then they would have an accurate forcast...
1178. FTWbuoy
Link

Nice circulation headed toward the west...not your typical thunderstom blob, but this is "pre-wetting the coastline", which puts me in disagreement with RockingLikeAhurricane from earlier. Just little bits of rain and less intense than what passed over S Florida for dinnertime. Who went on the Caribbean Cruise? Looks like a Pangburns Millionaire down there. At least I hope you like your martinis shaken! 8-)
What I think is this - yes, there are natural cycles, but they are usualy due to variations in the earth's orbit (i.e. ice ages, thousands of years) and the positions of the continents (millions of years) and associated climate changes are very slow, in contrast to the extremely rapid warming and other climate changes being observed, and I think that scientists know more than anybody on this blog, not to mention that what anybody thinks here is not going to change anything (I think that debating on what is causing global warming is just silly, as if we will ever get anywhere on this blog). And yes, scientists do look at past events to determine what is happening right now and why it might be happening.
where at ftw? headed for gulf or east coast?
TD 10 DOES NOT disprove global warming... and by saying that you show that you know nothing about it... I don't think anybody [scientists] said that every storm would become a Cat 5... you should really look at global trends as well because the Atlantic has a variability of about 2,800% from year to year while global variability is something like +/-10% for all storms.
1182. FTWbuoy
Groupthink. We have so many people on here putting noggins together. Why don't you all sell consulting services to them? You can deduct your DS3 and T1 lines then! hehe Thanks Drak and Patrap for the lessons. I resized pics to 640.400 then 320.200 and they kept coming up too big, I dunno why. Dain bramage.
who said that td 10 disproves global warming???
More on what (real) scientists did or did not ever say, an example that skeptics often fling around to try to disprove any projections for global warming:

The global cooling myth

Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichtons State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.



The above link shows why not to listen to what the media says and to listen to reputable scientists.



Posted By: tiggeriffic at 5:02 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

who said that td 10 disproves global warming???



This:

Posted By: Eyewall911 at 4:38 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Global warming????? Yeah right these piss ant storms should put that to rest


Of course, if Dean and Felix had hit the U.S. and become the new Katrinas, he wouldn't have said that at all, because they hit... you guessed it... the United States, which is all that matters in the world, who cares about Mexico and Nicarauga... Really... that is how most people here sound... same for storms in other ocean basins... for example, do you know what Super Typhoon Cimaron did last year? Or Cyclone Monica?
1185. FTWbuoy
On TD10, someone knocked off my comment that the multiple vortices thing made this thing look like the scrolled handle of a violin, with one that went up through GA at 4, another dissipated and then the lagger of the group, the one I kept referring to as the center that was SW of the landfall - and I still disagree - I see it there 15 mi inland headed due west. All it will do is make regular T-storms but it keeps dragging a few bigger ones in from the gulf, "pre-moistening" the envelope for the next big thing, which ups the flooding risk over the next 7-10 days. Guess I got too poetic with dat entry. I posted the link again.
Slide show of lastnights Eustis tornado from TD10. Had one today in Brevard, I think all that did was put a dead pine through some powerlines.

MLB NWS guys went out there today & pronounced it an EF1. 105mph tops. I'm suprised, destroyed homes, 2nd story gone & the RV tossed on the car like that, thought it would have been stronger. Guess todays RVs are made lighter..
I did not say that there was no such thing as global warming, I said there are warming and cooling trends that the earth does follow. As far as hurricanes go, there have only been satelites and computers for a few years comparitively speaking to how long we have known that hurricanes hit. The biggest problem with finding the trend is that before our super technology, the only storms that were know about were the ones that either impacted land or were happened upon by sea vessles. Computers and actual trending cannot be 100% accurate because there is not enough history recorded. We do not know how much was lost, done inaccurately, etc. Let's face it, the weatherman use to be the farmer's almanac predicting what the trend for the year would be. Unless there is acurate recordings for ALL areas, we cannot say if the trends from this source is even accurate. Several shows on the science and learning channels are even beginning to bring trends into account to co-inside with global warming. I am not discounting what the scientists are saying, but with every new discovery and new technology, what we thought to be a fact can change. If the scientists were perfect, we would be able to predict a hurricane, and tell where it would land on the first tracking data, not adjusting it daily with a "cone of error". Same as shipping uses the 1,2,3 system when a storm is near.
1188. FTWbuoy
Link

This is what is left of TD10 and where it is going. Going to study Central American Blobs and watch the SoCal thing knock over Oprah's topiaries for awhile.
STL~ It's like some try to rewrite the 70s. I was there & in school, early elementary but all the better as it was even simplier. They taught global warming was happening & there was a few outlier scientists that weren't in the majority & these few were screaming global cooling. While in reality a volcano happened & the cooling was forecast to be very short lived.
Getting first really hard driving rain now... Mostly its just been rain, but its pouring now.
wish it would slow down enough to soak in beach, raining too hard causes too much run off and flooding
tiggeriffic~ There is a big difference in short term weather models that are trying to forecast minute detail in chaos & plugging sun cycle energy & other mostly predictable forcings for a future date with #s of expected greenhouse gas levels to get a global average temp for a year. Yes unforseen things could happen, but the majority of these that we could pretty much live through (like a decent size volcano) have a shorter term effect.
I saw the damage on tv too and I could not believe it when they said it was only level 1 tornado. Have a nice morning
1194. FTWbuoy
Link

Remnants appear to have circulation around Fairhope, traingulate it between Dauphin Island, Daphne and Gulf Shores. It may burp out a couple of cumulonimbi over the Bayou..like one more IV bag. Any thoughts?
Unless there is acurate recordings for ALL areas,

Did you know that during "the warmest decade on record" that hundreds of surface observation stations closed in the former USSR states in the 90s? In Russia alone, almost 100 were shut down...they had/have bigger, more immediate problems. What do we know about Russia, Ukraine, etc.? It is rather cold.

Now, what if I were compiling the average temperature in my backyard and measured the temp every hour for a few years. But then decided to sleep at night and only measured the temp during the day...average temp shows WARMING! Whoopidy-do-dah. Our exceedingly slight warming measured via surface obs has gaping holes in the data.

Yeah. We might be warming. That is what earth does between ice ages, thankfully. Yes, the oceans are rising at 4 mm per year, and have been for centuries. We have been warmer (Hence the moniker, Greenland, from the Vikings) and we have been cooler and both will happen again regardless of man's, cow's, methane hydrates, or any other contribution to the chemical make-up of the atmosphere.
1197. FTWbuoy
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=sox&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings in LA. Hope Britney has on her cutoffs.
Agreed the scientist don't know it all, really we've been given some broad numbers as to how fast & how hot it should warm & they have been wrong. It's happening faster than any of the worst gloom & doomers said.

Global warming is based on the average of the whole earth's temperature. Hence the word Global.

Every month wrap up looks like this til it's like beating a dead horse.
Oops. The mean temperature is calculated using this: (I'll eat my hat if this staion didn't show some warming, what with the roads,cars, cement, asphalt, and radiators that have been added since 1867...unless they had all of that back then in Arizona)

UA station

1867
1201. FTWbuoy
Atmoaggie...scientists I think you meant (not scientits), although that does bring our local weatherlady to mind, and maybe a great fundraising calendar a la Lowrider Magazine, just in front of tornado chaser vehicles. That would be hot. Here a recent infared. Is the blob crossing into the SE ATL basin blob enough to outlive the shear and develop? hmmm...
Can we get back on topic? Please? I'm tired of hearing a bunch of people who know nothing about climate science going on about how scientists are idiots who don't know better than to compensate for things like heat islands and down stations, as though they're just sitting there publishing literally thousands of peer-reviewed papers per year on the exact same tiny subset of evidence.

What about the swirl in the GOM? Any news?
Atmoaggie...scientists I think you meant (not scientits),

Not me.

Blobs? The Atlantic does have some anomalously high shear, just not all that anomalously high. I don't see the shear being too much for development for long.

shear
1205. FTWbuoy
Bam! Karen, look at top and double bands that just fired out from the wave in the W. Carribean. It's walking into an area with less shear and BOOM! 10'50"
What about the swirl in the GOM? Any news?


I dunno what FTW is looking at, things look to have gotten a lot quieter in the last few hours. See water vapor at Link
Where are you guys seeing current satellite pics?

I tried to look, but, didn't realize how late it is - NHC's birds are in blackout.
Busted. Must be tired. The link only shows up to 3:15 UTC, now 6:30. Sorry about that.

GNite all.
FTWBuoy: Could you clarify what you just said?
FTW - I am with you all the way to BOOM!

After that I get cornfuzzled. Do you mean 10N 50W?

Trying to see that you are looking at.
1212. FTWbuoy
Correcione! Central Atlantic. The scientits thing had me lost there for a sec., sorry Aggie. Time for nighttime ragweed medicine and my pillow. I am watching the energy and airborne moisture crossing FL into the track lined up with the east coast, but the wind currents show it curving back into the mix with the oncoming pair of waves, per my comment (at 10'50" on that link your posted Karen). In SoCal, it's flooding in LA - the river actually has water in it, and car parts should be a pleand hair extensions should be a plentiful catch out to sea the next few days. Back to the blob in the gomex, nada, zip, except aforementioned crossover that will make a course correction off the GA coast soon. No idea if it will develop in the sunshine.
1218. FTWbuoy


.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TROUGH
FROM 16N85W 22N86W WILL MOVE NW AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W TO ALONG 55W SUN NIGHT
AND ENTERS E CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT.


Convection has increased markedly this morning with the western Carribean disturbance. I still think this could be 94L before too long.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
1232. IKE
From the Tallahassee,FL. marine discussion....

"Another thing to continue to monitor will be another developing
feature in the western Caribbean that the models have been hinting
at for the past few days now. Convection with this system is
beginning to flare on the satellite imagery. This storm is prognosticated
to push north through the Yucatan Channel and could send another
southerly source of wave energy toward our coast sometime around
Sunday/Monday time frame. Also during this time frame...the models
are showing much lighter winds out of the east-southeast direction."
KoritheMan.....says this could be our next Invest....any particular reason why?

I'd suggest not getting on my bad site tonight troll, or I will put you on my ignore list. I've had it with trolls like you, now enough is enough.

And yes, I can tell you are a troll.

Why? Some cyclonic turning evident, although not at the surface yet. Convection over water for prolonged periods of time = low pressure area at the surface, and once that happens, this will probably be 94L. Now whether or not it develops, I have no idea. Conditions aren't perfect yet, so development should be slow to occur, IMO.

If you don't appreciate this explanation, I don't really care. If you say anything sarcastic back to me, I swear I'll put you on my ignore list.
Posted By: ECG at 10:32 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

KoritheMan.....You're the one on here yacking stuff you can't prove....
Don't start trolling others when you can't provide evidence for what you say.


well I could see why koritheman got annoyed...you only wasted three posts of blog space whining about him not posting info, which he did
ugh I hate the SSD shear map...it never seems to be accurate...
Posted By: ECG at 10:42 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I'll try and combine blog space....both you guys have yet to produce evidence regarding anything....and you're both whining.
There's your waste of space.


I produce info for stuff...and I see koritheman post support for his stuff all the time, usually with a nice map...I thought eye was bad, well back to the weather
he even said in his originally post that the convection had increased...and sometimes thats enough for the nhc to make something an invest...they did it with one of them 92L's..
1244. IKE
ECG is #18 on my ignore list. I added him/her, a few days ago.
Posted By: IKE at 10:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

ECG is #18 on my ignore list. I added him/her, a few days ago.


LOL...is eye number one? :-)
I still think that low pressure in the NATL has potential to develop....I dont think the shear will become unfavorable, as the nhc noted that further development would be slow, so maybe perhaps it will only drop to marginally favorable levels, just a hunch but it is more organized
the LLC for the natl low is about 45W according to QS
1250. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 5:50 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 10:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.

ECG is #18 on my ignore list. I added him/her, a few days ago.

LOL...is eye number one? :-)


He's not on there...yet.
Good Morning


Caribbean Disturbance

Convection has increase as winds shear has drop to 5-10 knots over the disturbed area due to a building upper level ridge. Pressures are slightly falling over the area as seen on the pressure tendency chart. Somehow though the convection is still east of the "center" which is near 86-88W/15-20N.







1252. IKE
Buoy 42056 at the Yucatan Basin....

"5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 119 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.4 F"....


Strong winds, but the pressure is rising.
Looks like the tropical depression in the bay of bengal has moved inland or is doing so
Thanks 234 and Ike for the latest on that possible dist. Hope it doesn't pan out. KEEP IT QUIET:-)
Can't we get a break with the tropics every time I log on there is something new brewing.
gdmrng all, looks like the system that went through sfl last night washed out, but the sw carrib new formation looks interesting, any opinions on the sys off s amer east coast?
Being we can't get a break Western Carib looks pretty ominous. I am not liking the long term outcome. I live in Ocean Springs LA I hope we don't see any part of it
eyewall, since the other sys moved so fast yesterday, this must have been what was predicted by the models testerday in dr m's update which stated tx or sw la, i guess we'll see today
Wind field at TD 10's time of landfall:

1263. Patrap
Posted By: WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) at 12:04 PM CDT on September 21, 2007.
We would like to remind everyone to read the Rules of the Road. We are banning today for ignoring these rules. Please be aware that "You've got mail, user X" falls under a banning offense. Personal chatter, off-topic comments, and bickering as either the aggressor or the defender are all banning offenses.

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Rules of the Road Link
yeah blue it should be a busy weak
1265. Patrap
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
click to ENlarge

Link
hey patrap i wasn't on most of the night was it this heated last pm too?
Is this QuickSCAT recent? It shows a surface circulation with the CATL system...if it is recent then I would expect to see an invest fairly soon.

qs?
the one catl wave we were watching last week had a sfc circulation but was never declared an invest...maybe they like to wait for some organization first
1270. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico


Link
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:45 AM AST on September 22, 2007

could you help me..i cant get those images that u are getting. something to do with an ftp server.
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:49 AM AST on September 22, 2007.

yeah thats the most recent one
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:45 AM AST on September 22, 2007

could you help me..i cant get those images that u are getting. something to do with an ftp server.


If you're trying to post the image, you can't because it's an FTP server and not HTTP.

The best way to do so is to click on the image that you want on this page for example and save it then upload it onto a site such as Imageshack. You can also just view them from there.
Terra,

every time i click on one of images to view it..this comes up

The page cannot be displayed
Terra,

every time i click on one of images to view it..this comes up

The page cannot be displayed


It could be your browser. I'm using IE6 an I can see them just fine. Other than that I don't know...

Morning all. Just trying to catch up on whats what. TD10 is on land and no more? Second swirl that was out in the GOM did not develop? Something by the Yucatan? Can someone tell me what is currently going on?

Preciate it.
The ECMWF predicts the CATL system to develop quickly then move off in an Ingrid-like path then dissipate due to shear.

ecmwf

Then it pops a subtropical/tropical system seemingly out of nowhere east of the Carolinas...I don't see a consistency with the other runs and this is too far off to seriously be considered.

ecmwf
ok
1279. Drakoen
The caribbean disturbance looks interesting but the convection is being influence by a number of things and there are no signs of organization.
Morning all. Just trying to catch up on whats what. TD10 is on land and no more? Second swirl that was out in the GOM did not develop? Something by the Yucatan? Can someone tell me what is currently going on?

For those who are just coming on:

1) TD 10 has made landfall and the last advisory has been issued.

2) The gulf swirl is still there and a little barely noticable puff of convection has fired up just to the north...but there are no signs of organization and I don't expect to see anything out of this.

3) The system in the Western Atlantic has exploded overnight with a line of strong convection...I don't see a low level circulation and there is a flow to the northeast which could act to shear this. A strong anticyclone is just west of the main mass of convection.

4) The CATL wave is looking more organized this morning and the QuickSCAT has detected a weak circulation. Convection has waned but the remaining thunderstorm activity has clustered around the center.
1281. Drakoen
I just looked over the models and they so seem to want to develop something of Africa over the next few days. Currently there is a 1011mb low of the Africa coast that will need to be monitored for signs of development. The CMC, GFS and the Navy NOGAPS models do want to develop something.
Hi Guys, Looks quiet out there

Nova - the DTG of the QS looks resent but I see no closed circ. Your second surf chart is a forcast 10 days from now - there is a 10 day spread between the two charts.

ECG if you have to ask Ike if he is a mod - that says it all about you.

Patrap, 456, Ike et.al. You guys see anything out there that might be more than just normal wx patterns

Sorry Nova - thanks for the overview
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I just looked over the models and they so seem to want to develop something of Africa over the next few days. Currently there is a 1011mb low of the Africa coast that will need to be monitored for signs of development. The CMC, GFS and the Navy NOGAPS models do want to develop something.


and the enviroment for that wave seems to be at least somewhat favorable
BBL
1286. Drakoen
yea the environment is favorable for that low to develop. 5-10kts of shear ahead of the wave, which is low enough for development. Also SAL won't be a problem.
what's goin on with the blob in the western Carr?
1288. Drakoen
The area in the caribbean has establish an Upper level high. Also its has a weak SFC vorticity just of the coast of Belize.
A highly amplified tropical wave

1291. Drakoen
Area of the coast of Africa.
1292. IKE
ECG if you have to ask Ike if he is a mod - that says it all about you.

LOL.
Convection building near the "center"

do you guys think this blob will be an invest soon?
I think we could have a few invests....caribbean disturbance, NATL low which is organizing slowly, and the african low
the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?
African disturbance



Oh yea and for whatever it's worth..TD10 is still brinning in rain and low dark clouds here at EGlin AFB
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?


Yes its that non tropical low
Sorry Ike, I ment to say Patrap -lol

Anyway, the Navy's got that blob off Belize disapating by the 27th
Link
Posted By: extreme236 at 12:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?

Yes its that non tropical low

ok makin sure I'm on the same page..lol
The two areas that will most likely become invests are the W Caribbean disturbance and the disturbance near the african coast.

the NATL low is running out of time before it becomes absorbed by larger extra-tropical cyclone currently over Canada and the wave near the windwards islands has the chance to develop but not anytime soon.
1305. Drakoen
yea. The western Caribbean area has an area of low pressure. Still just seeing this blob no focused area of convection to look at, although that may change. Probably the next invest.
What we wanna watch out for is west winds.
Non Tropical Low

you can definatly tell the NATL low is more organized...we will have to see if it becomes something
1308. Drakoen
The winds are pretty high in the northern Caribbean. Though the SFC pressure is not impressive.
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 135 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.5 F
ok to my definite untraineed eye..west carr blob looks "healthy"..having said that .last nite Dr. STeve Lyons said it would be highly unlikely that it would develop..does he know something we don't know....or his he just bein extremly reserved?
Drak, where was that ob taken?
Morning All. 5" of rain yesterday here in Palm Beach Gardens, loving it. However, I am not going to be loving the mosquitos tonight. As we approach the end of September, the chance for a re-curve goes up substantially for anything that forms in the C&E-Atl, which is a great thing. Not out of the question for a storm to threaten land but, climatology is now on our side in the MDR.
Pressures are not falling as of 1200Z



1200Z Surface Relative vorticity (X-Positive/Cyclonic)




1313. Drakoen
actually this morning Steve said there is an area of low pressure. That will move into the Gulf of Mexico and will need to be watched for tropical cyclone development.
1314. Drakoen
Posted By: icepilot at 1:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drak, where was that ob taken?


a buoy in the northern Caribbean.
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:02 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

actually this morning Steve said there is an area of low pressure. That will move into the Gulf of Mexico and will need to be watched for tropical cyclone development.

lol well I must be 12hrs behind on the hurricane authority...need to stay on top of it huh..for current conditions....lol...
1317. Drakoen
RAMSDIS show a pressure of 1010mb of the coast of Belize of there might west wind there hard to tell because to wind barb is obstruct.
morning all. i knew when i saw people discussing that non-tropical low waaay out in the atlantic that td 10 was inland and dying...so no jerry yet.
ecg was there an intesity forecast wit that model you posted on the sw carrib sys?
1322. Drakoen
nice update storm!
thanks ecg
1327. CJ5
Posted By: TerraNova at 11:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Is this QuickSCAT recent? It shows a surface circulation with the CATL system...if it is recent then I would expect to see an invest fairly soon.


Yes, that wave has shown circulation for most of the week. It has been very elongated on previous QS scans this week.
Morning all :~)

For those that are interested, I have posted a collection of photos from Hurricane Hugo which made landfall in Charleston SC Sept 21/22 1989. The pics are in the comments section of my blog.
Yep Storm! And Thanks :~)
excl storm thanks
SW, noticed you did not comment on the area off the E coast. Too much shear? Models have not shown much with it, but they have shown a little low level vorticity.
br, w or j or both?
could this thing in the SWCAR be like wilma?

1335. Keys99
The Weather word for today

ADIABATIC

From the 3:33 NWS office Key West

THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST WAS A WET ONE. THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WAS NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC ALL THE WAY WITH NEVER MORE THAN
4C DEPRESSION IN ANY LAYER. SOUTH WINDS PREDOMINATED THROUGH 50 KPA.
1336. Drakoen
I just updated my blog briefly on the current conditions please check it out and leave commments.
Link
br, you may want to take a look at these as well. Goes over some of the different types of intensity models as well as how and where to best view many of the models. Total of 30 minutes of video or so...

Some help videos for beginning to better understand the models.

View these first

And then there is one on the FSU site that is linked in my blog.
huh?
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:25 AM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Storm, Great Blog..Found it very intereting the heat of the Gulf compared the years past...could be a rough next 2 months in the Gulf.
SW, Thanks for update. Do you expect much trop moisture streaming up FL peninsula today? Hearing muffled thunder near AMI..
1341. Drakoen
Updated imagery on the African wave, which can also be found in my blog.
Thanks TS :~) Been doing that set up for the past couple years. Plan on doing it again next year as well.

br, you said excl storm.

Well StormW and myself have posted this morning so I was confused hence the W or J? ~)
Great update Storm W, thanks. Isn't the area by the Yucatan the area where Dr.M said could impact TX/LA by Monday. Wouldn't it have to get its rear in gear to impact that soon? Just wonderin.
TS, one thing to keep in mind about the Gulf maps is the 06 map is not on the same scale. That said, the current heat content looks slightly warmer overall this as opposed to 05, but 05 had two majors in the Gulf by this time.
Thanks SW, I have not looked at it much, figured something just to keep a lazy eye on and if there seems to be any organization then dig deeper. Seems the GFS wants to move that area S over the next few days and then bring it back to the N Fla, S SC area.
1230 UTC

stormj, great videos!
looking better

1355. Drakoen
yea weather456 that upper level high is really helping it. And the updated Cimss 850mb map shows the low.
Drakoen,

yeah, the ridge has help the wind shear drop from almost 30 knots yesterday to about 5-10 knots..the last time i check.
Wow that storm hitting Southern Cali. is a Monster..
Thanks br :~)

Plan on doing more in the future addressing different sites and tools used for tracking. Have to wait until my voice is back to normal though. This sinus infection has postponed that for a little while!

Saw the ECMWF SW, but this area that I have been seeing on the models does not seem to be the same thing as it seems to move onshore in the next 6 days or so.
Hey SJ,

Man can I remember what I was doing 18trs ago today.
stormj, when you are feeling better and get more videos let me know.
Floater on the african disturbance

94L is on the navy site
1364. Drakoen
We have 94L!
we have 94L Invest
1366. Drakoen
Thanks Taz, Good work...
lmao pirate! First time we have ever had two CAT 5 landfalls in one season and you are talking about over hyping...From your post I take that the US is the only thing that matters.

As for hurricane season being a business for some, yes it is. But then again, I guess you would argue that funeral parlor owners are evil folks hoping for people to die, or cancer dr's are hoping for folks to get cancer, or EMT's are hoping for a car accident, or that police don't want to stop crime because it would put them out of work if they ever succeeded. Your argument really holds no weight imho.
94L Invest
25 Knots
1010 mb

1370. IKE
Anyone notice 94L is up on the Navy site?
No kidding 459! About this time I was walking around the block with a few others just looking at all the "uhhh" expressions on peoples faces! Hard to believe it was 18 years ago.
1372. IKE
OOPS..I guess so.
1373. Drakoen
yes IKE
Posted By: pirateotobx at 1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I'm not a frequent poster here. I am a frequent observer.

You're right; hurricanes are big business but so are auto accidents. There are some who thrive on disaster mongering and catastrophy wishing. They are not unique to tropical storms. Whether it be a plane crash, earthquake, volcano, act of terrorism, they glee.

I have found on this blog most are more interested in the formation of tropical storm and trying to understand their paths and their intensities than doomsaying or doom-hoping.

Most posters here are more scientist than anything else. Science is about observing, collecting data, hypothesising, presenting to peers, debating, and drawing conclusions. I find that all here.

I suggest you lurk or observe. I think you'll find that to be true.
Will do br :~)
SJ'

LOL. We are getting old :)
Posted By: StormW at 1:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Okay Mr. wx expert...where's your forecast and data to back it up?

I never said I was an expert..I'm just making an observation. I live on the coast so I keep up with storms but thats about it. But you're making my point. How can anyone come out with a weather prediction months in advance based on some computer data and their best educated guesses. You can't control Mother Nature. You think they would have figured this out by now. Deal with each storm one at a time as they appear..but coming out with these predictions is silly...they are making just that..predictions . I'd be just as well off going to see a fortune teller. That's my point...it's business and money.
459, what was the name of the house next to The Atlantic House?
1380. Drakoen
1381. IKE
Deal with each storm one at a time as they appear..but coming out with these predictions is silly...they are making just that..predictions .

The "experts" called for an above average season...so far, it has been.

What's your complaint about the experts, if their correct? You're complaining about them being wrong and their not, so far.

What else do you want to complain about?
Well I am glade that this thing did not happen as they thought....(Being on the Gulf Coast) But I do see the Gulf of Mexico is now open for Business..... We could not only see 1 storm coming but possible up to 3..... Now thats what I see as of today, and maybe something different by tomorrow but time will only tell......

Taco :0)

SJ,

Wish i could remember,sorry. Funny thing is I was living with a girl that worked @ the Atlantic house
Hope somebody fixes Invest94 sat image.. animates wrong system.
1385. Drakoen
Hopefully the will put a floater on it soon, though that usually takes forever...
Drak, is that just supposed to be some correlation with the last 94L?

Well that was weird. Your original pic of 94L was of Felix...Very strange. Image seems to be correct now.
1387. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drak, is that just supposed to be some correlation with the last 94L?


I think thats a personal issue. On my computer it shows 94L in the Caribbean.
1388. IKE
Navy info on 94L....

94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-180N-855W
A personal issue...lmao...No it was not a personal issue...You are a trip :~)

Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.
No one on this blog appears to be trying to control Mother Nature. They try to forecast situations that may occur and therefore forewarn folks so they may prepare, in the event of a dangerous weather situation. I for one appreciate all of their efforts. If you find this offensive, perhaps you should find another weather website to monitor.

JMO
1392. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

A personal issue...lmao...No it was not a personal issue...You are a trip :~)

Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.


I wasn't trying to make a joke. What you saw and what i saw were different things.
1393. Patrap
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
1394. IKE
Posted By: pirateotobx at 9:19 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
Lightningcharmer you are right..most are here for study of storms etc..My problem is with the ones higher up that create all this.


You have a problem with the ones higher up that are calling for an above average season, when it's an above average season, so far. Their correct.
it takes 94L up to 63kt or cat 1 hurrican in 120hrs any one that lives from uper tx to LA coast line needs to watch this

lol
Drak, do you not use the GHCC site? It's like your own personal floater.

Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.
1397. Drakoen
Prelimary runs. Hopefully we should get more reliable runs later today.
question.......how would one control Mother Nature?....just wondering
1399. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drak, do you not use the GHCC site? It's like your own personal floater.

Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.


yes i do use that site. I prefer the SSD site better...
It's all good Drak, just thought it was a funny way to make your point ☺ made me laugh.

Again, I think it was just the WU updating their images.
94L is ALREADY a TROPICAL DISTURBANCE and not a possible SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...

Not liking this for TX/LA/MS area... Don't have a good feeling about this one...
1402. IKE
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:20 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
it takes 94L up to 63kt or cat 1 hurrican in 120hrs any one that lives from uper tx to LA coast line needs to watch this


That's almost exactly what was said about 93L...even by Bastardi, and it hits the panhandle of Florida.

I do think this system goes further west with high pressure building in. Just not convinced it's a Texas issue yet.
1403. icmoore
The pirate has had enough attention. Cat
1404. Patrap
Well..the game is afoot again. 94L..A north mover thru time.

Cue the Jaws Music....
LOL!!
1405. IKE
NEW BLOG!
GHCC site usually updates before the SSD site. SSD is usually 15-30 minutes behind the SSD site. I do like the overlays on the SSD site and the CIMSS site as well. Also like the fact that the North America GOES east imagery updates more often on the GHCC as well as providing a higher zoom factor then the other sectors there.
I have no problem with forecasts on the Hurricane season, alot of things have to do with politics. Everyone has an opinion and they are entitled to voice it. Why would Dr.Masters care if it is a busy season or not? Last time I checked weather is not like a business, it does not go out of business or foreclose, it is always there and will be there as will someone's opionions on what it is going to do.
Will they be running a recon on 94L today? Those models differ greatly in direction.
StormJunkie: Your not feeling better yet? I sure hope you get to feeling better soon.
Good Morning StormW,SJ,Drak,Ike. And who ever I missed.
So does it look like there is anything brewing out there guys?
The sun is shinning here in Mobile. Might get to go fishing. A big maybe.
Sheri
KORI Dont feel that way, there's a lot of good folks here and your one of them. We just need a weed eater to weed the trolls out. I don't know who said it the other day but it was really smart to do. Don't even acknowladge them and auticmately put them on ignore and they'll never now what hit them. When no one speaks to them.
(yeah i know i spelled them words wrong only on second cup of coffee)
Sheri