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Tropical Depression Six reorganizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:59 AM GMT on September 05, 2006

Tropical Depression Six is having trouble making up its mind where its center should be. The center it organized around is getting competition from another center of circulation about 400 miles to the southwest, as seen in the latest QuikSCAT image posted at 8:30pm EDT tonight (Figure 1). The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and is causing major difficulties for TD 6, which can't make up its mind which center to consolidate around. Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers. TD 6 may well decide to organize around the old Invest 98L center to the southwest, which would pull the forecast tracks further south towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Another wind card is the presence of the new tropical wave to the east of TD 6, near the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is close enough to TD 6 that it may be stealing some energy from the depression and inhibiting its intensification. Again, the models will not be able to deal with this interaction with another circulation nearby.

Despite this conflict, TD 6 has grown stronger since this morning--there are many more red 40 mph wind vectors visible in the evening QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) compared to the morning pass (Figure 2). It will be interesting to see if NHC upgrades the system to Tropical Storm Florence at 11pm, or decides to wait to see which center TD 6 forms around.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds from 5pm EDT Monday evening, September 4, 2006. Wind speed and direction are coded according to the standard station model, and are color coded (in knots) according to the color scale at the upper right (10 knots = 11.5 mph). Black winds barbs occur where there is rain, and one cannot trust the wind speeds measured in those areas. Tropical storm force winds (35 knots) are colored red, brown, or purple; one can see many red wind barbs in TD 6. Note the increased winds (orange barbs, 25-30 knots) around Invest 98L, compared to the morning QuikSCAT pass (below).


Figure 2. QuikSCAT satellite winds from 5am EDT Monday morning, September 4, 2006. One can see one red wind barb in TD 6.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
The wave just west of the Cape Verdes Islands has a closed circulation, which can be seen on QuikSCAT imagery from this morning and this evening (Figures 1 and 2). The wave's winds have not increased between the two passes by the satellite, and TD 6 may be inhibiting the wave's development. The wave is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and has some potential for slow development over the next few days.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey, what is this dark area in the middle of the convective burst? Link
Thx nebula, still lurking, and will output a 1:30 forecast...


" This is a strange hurricane: no eye, two eyes, off center rotation, semi-transparent to radar pics, slow and jerky- I think it's going to surprise people, although the weather service is so good at predicting exact tracks, I suspect they've made a deal with the devil." ....wilma

Link
Good evening rick54. i've been reading your notes on here. I'm just sitting back reading and learning. So what do you think about the TD6?

Confused .... very confused. Things keep changing so fast ... It is almost like the TD6s COC is located somewhere between the US House chamber and the Senate in the capitol building.
nubula thanks . and now they calling for 30 mph for today in south fla. i know we are all looking at td 6 . but can someone check the blob south of keys and west of bahamas .

the nhc did make a small statement on this in their disccusion as skyeponey said thanks
OMH cold cloudtops.....imagine that!
first black colored tops Ive see with this system


Clouds and Elephants

How much does a cloud weigh? One cumulus cloud can contain about 550 tons of water, reports ABC News. Or if you want to convert it to something that might be a little more meaningful . . . , think of elephants, says meteorologist Peggy LeMone. If we assume that an elephant weighs about six tons, then the water in just one typical cumulus cloud would weigh as much as 100 elephants. All that water is suspended as tiny droplets that float on the warmer air rising from below. In contrast to a puffy cumulus cloud, a large storm cloud may hold water weighing as much as 200,000 elephants. What about a hurricane? LeMone estimated the weight of the water in one cubic meter of a hurricane cloud and multiplied that figure by the total volume of the hurricane. The result? A weight equivalent to forty million elephants. That means the water in one hurricane weighs more than all the elephants on the planet, says the report, perhaps even more than all the elephants that have ever lived.
Hmmmm comparing water to Elephants....What a concept! What in the world will they think of next????
randomdude...Thats not two eyes, that's an eye and a dry spot You can clearly see a spiral band wrapping around the eye with the dry spot north of the band.

HurryKaneKata...Source? It's more likely that Edna in '54 had one large eye of 60+ miles rather then two smaller eyes. The laws of physics simply go against it.
Hmmmm comparing water to Elephants....What a concept! What in the world will they think of next????

And those Elephants seem to have a mind of their own LOL
i am just quoting googled sources i found on this dual eye thing...i am not suggesting that i know anything about it :)
Hurricane Emily also had two eyes in 2004.
Couldn't stay away.
Best part of being on the Pac West Coast is that were still up and watching when everyone has gone to bed.
Latest IF on TD6 shows to me some interesting features.
It's only 9:40 here and I'm good for another few.
Must say tho, Stil confused with were 6 is going.
Randomdude... considering your source, a political commentist, I wouldnt take his theory on weather too seriously. He's talking to get people interested, not to be 100% accurate.
I'm pretty sure the center will find a home (if it hasn't already) under that deep convection. It has been attempting to find deep convection all day, and it now has the deepest convection of its entire life-span so far.
Hey guys wunderground was down for a while or is it me?
Again, I wonder what the real dynamics, possibilities are of two storms developing and making a US landfall at, or about the same time? Could models run this scenario? Has it happened before? Even with all the storms last year, I don't recall any being at, or near the same time.
Also, Diurnal max is just beginning, which will aid in the current thunderstorm development.

Also as a note, it looks like the circulation of TD6 has made the wave to the east of it a lesser a threat, as it doesn't appear to have won the battle with TD6's stronger circulation.
Hurricane Edna-(1954)
While residents of Maine and New England were cleaning up from Hurricane Carol, Edna was forming off the coast of South America. ...
www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm - 9k Hurricane Edna-(1954)
While residents of Maine and New England were cleaning up from Hurricane Carol, Edna was forming off the coast of South America. ...
www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm - 9k


This is the source HurricaneMyles that you asked for.
Broad aint the word for td6's circulation LOL
I found this rather interesting from stacy tonight...



HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A
MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
OFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT
LINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT
POLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
523. eye
looks like the NE might have won the battle with the SW swirl, convection wise that is. That would be good news for the USA.
although the convection is shooting northward with the shear, one can see the storm actually moving WNW or even "WWNW"
Good chance TD6 will be a major hurricane and hit the eastcoast. Monster High ( newfoundland High)
pushing south. from the looks of the models TD6 will move in after the high has passed.

more heretracks and maps
I still looks as if the low is still digging and if that is the case, the area of convection to the North would be blown off to the NE in time leaving what was once 98l intact to resume as TD6. I think the SW circulation has better outflow and I think the convection to the N is unsustainable typical nighttime flareups around a weak coc. Time will tell.
When did Emily have two eyes? Seriously, this has gotten out of hand. Strong hurricanes cant have two defined eyes! The conflicting wind directions between them would never allow it. That is why when ever weak systems have two circulations(NOTE: NOT EYES), like TD6 and former 98L today, they interfere with eachother and prevent strengthing. Eventually cannabalism happens and one absorbs the other. That or they move away from each other and form two different systems.

BTW, who ever is worried about the models and more then one hurricane in the Atlantic, it's OK. Last year the models were initializing and forecasting 2, even 3 systems at the same time. The global models take into account all weather systems, and there are hundreds of non-tropical systems around the world. So again, dont worry. Multiple systems arent going to make the models any more unreliable then they already are.
the storminess and ideas of a separate storm heading off into the Caribbean is pretty much gone now so there goes that idea
Not true eye - The NE is what the models have been basing their tracks off of - and the GFDL has a major hurricane barrelling towards the east coast in just over 5 days. Unfortunately, GFDL has no doubt been the best model to forecast the track of tropical systems this year. I wish I could say it's going to be a fish storm, but my doubts of it being one are growing more and more at each new GFDL run.
And 2 eyes again.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/hurricane_claudette.html

Soory you have to copy and paste link in URL.
Links dont seem to be working for me tonight.:)
So how many miles apart would two systems have to be to simultaneously develop into hurricanes?

In this case the eye seems to be shifting between separate systems.
well if you look closely there are 3 centers, but somthing is behind it when u look at the models u see pressure drops.

maps and tracks
She was not comparing Elephants to water,
but the weight of an elephant equivilant to water,so that common people could understand.

Who would stay in the path of 40 million elephants?
I think it is at the same place it was two days ago in terms of 98l and 90l and one will win and one won't, again.
Nebula, if I understand you correctly, your implying that the National Hurricane Center makes it a habit of employing meteorologists who's forecasting abilities are substandard to those of a college undergraduate.

To be clear (and thanks, sflhurricane) I'm acutely aware that the models can track numerous storm at once. My curiosity is that of the "dymamics" and the "possibities" of that scenario and wondering when, if that has ever happened before.
NeverPanic...I dont see the two eyes.
Eastcoast, while I also have the same gut feeling that u do, its far to early to get into specifics.
539. eye
but kyle, that ends at 5 days, there is at least 3 or 4 more days before it would hit the USA...and the weakness, supposed weakness, will occur around 72ish W...that model doesnt go out that far right now, if it is still barrelling W say, come Sat or Sun, then there would be concern.

Just for the sake of arguement sake, in the tropics, the further N a system is, the better chance of recurving, just a GENERAL rule, not written in stone, because further N systems tend to be caught by something, yeah, exceptions to every rule...
nebula420 i worked at MIA for 5 years loaded cargo planes.Iam only a few minutes from miami international
: kylejourdan2006 i am with you do you think TD 6 is a not stonger to night then the last night at this time?
Nebula whats your thoughts on stacy's comment on TD6 possibly not recurving.
Cumulofractus, you place too much credit in authority. Observation is my specialty and the facts are the facts about the SWAG and they at NHC would even tell you so, I know,I deal with NWS on a daily basis. The NHC would be the first to say they don't have a clue much of the time. I expect more from them than lazy 6 hour forecasts that flip flop and show little grasp of fluid dynamics, climatology and smack of model chasing.
kylejourdan2006 i mean to say is do you think TD 6 is a lot stonger tonight then it was last night at this time?
HurricaneMyles,
NE at 1 Oclock.
Small but there.
It may not be true that two "eyes" can form in a hurricane, but a double "eyewall" is observed, although rarely.

Hurricanes with double eyewalls:
- Hurricane Donna
- Hurricane Flloyd
- Hurricane Andrew
- Hurricane Emily
- Hurricane Wilma
- and more...

Typhoons with double eyewalls:
- Typhoon Dujuan

These double eyewalls are also known as "concentric eyewalls".
Guys here is TD6 on Rainbow Imagery...



Off the subject of what's out there right now and where it might go I just finished a well-written book titled "Category 5: The Story of Camille- Lessons Unlearned from America's Most Violent Hurricane" by Ernest Zebrowski and Judith A. Howard. Ironically it was just about to go to press last year as Katrina hit. At about 250 pages it's not totally comprehensive, nor highly technical, but it well captures the human drama at both its best and worst.
eye - The GFDL actually has it moving southwest (or WSW) just before 5 days, then turning a little more westward again.

Taz - Yes. I do believe because of the heavy, deep convection near what I believe is the center, it is stonger than last night and will most likely be a tropical storm by 11am tomorrow.
hurricane23 boy TD 6 looks a lot stonger then last night and i think by 5am we could have are TS
so there is no chance of a south florida landfall please awnser
Cumulofractus, you place too much credit in authority.

It is a harsh criticism but likely true. Years ago in Southern Cal. we had a TV guy named Dr. George Fishbeck (if I remember correctly he was also at one time president of the AMS)and that guy understood weather. He would stand up there on the screen and explain what was going on using real charts and so on. And he was way more accurate than the NWS.
kylejourdan2006 do we have a good fixs on where its going
554. eye
remember everyone, when 99 and 98 were invest, 99 blew up one night, than fizzled, than 98 blew up and became a TD...this things in the formative stages do that. The convection could easily die down in the am, time will tell, persistance is key. It does look like the NE circulation is the more dominate one, i wonder if the SW one could survive on is on and march into the Carribean...will be interesting to see.
To all forecasters--A plain and simple question: Given the current steering currents and the possibilities in the upcoming days, which would be most likely (the odds), recurvature or an east coast strike? Although I understand that the depression is far out, the official forecasts are redundant (I agree with Nebula) and we won't know where the storm is going officially until it's 30 minutes from landfall. Given what we know tonight, which scenario appears most likely?
Tornado7, Anyone who rules out any thing at this pointg is an idiot. I would guess no, but its just to early to rule it out.
23, I'm off of 25 street in building 702 3-11pm swing shifts. The motto I go by is the little storms keep the big storms away. So 23 as much as I hate to say it because it means work for me, we want these ULL's over SoFlo and in the gulf to persist. They will keep any high from building back in. Why? High's don't move. They replace. Only if a low moves out of the way will a high build back in. If a ULL stays put, I don't care what some surface high might be around no hurricane is getting through. Time will tell and the best chance for a U.S. strike is the SWly circulation Hebert box and all.
558. eye
very few people will go out on a limb, but i am sticking to my guns, recurvature at approximately 70-75W
Just wondering if we see on Sat 2 walls in all the images because of close proximity to landfall? They all seem to be at landfall and could possible be an interaction with land.
Just a thought.
I would have to say based on climatology and latitude of origin it is more likely to go out to sea, but that is not my gut feeling.
561. eye
I agree with nebula, the best shot at a USA landfall would be the SW circulation being the dominate one. I am basing my recurvature on the NE being the dominate circulation.
Posted By: nebula420 at 1:04 AM EDT on September 05, 2006.
23, I'm off of 25 street in building 702 3-11pm swing shifts. The motto I go by is the little storms keep the big storms away. So 23 as much as I hate to say it because it means work for me, we want these ULL's over SoFlo and in the gulf to persist. They will keep any high from building back in. Why? High's don't move. They replace. Only if a low moves out of the way will a high build back in. If a ULL stays put, I don't care what some surface high might be around no hurricane is getting through. Time will tell and the best chance for a U.S. strike is the SWly circulation Hebert box and all.


cant agree with you more their.
I if I were a betting man I would place my money on the horse named GFDL, it cant miss this season. It was the only one to latch on to a track over Cuba for Ernesto, when all the others took it through the Carribean and into the Gulf!
Nebula did u read stacy's discussion tonight on this thing not moving out to sea.whats your thinking on that.

This is what he said...


HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A
MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
OFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT
LINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT
POLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
For anyone wondering about the "double eye" or "conentric eye", this is the best picture I could find. It's of Hurricane Andrew right before landfall, while it was still undergoing rapid intesification courtesy of interaction with the Gulf Stream. The second eyewall is the ring of red inside the main eye, which is barely noticable in this picture, but it was the best I could find.

Where does the latest GFDL put this one when it's closer to land?
Posted By: eye at 5:03 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
remember everyone, when 99 and 98 were invest, 99 blew up one night, than fizzled, than 98 blew up and became a TD...this things in the formative stages do that. The convection could easily die down in the am, time will tell, persistance is key. It does look like the NE circulation is the more dominate one, i wonder if the SW one could survive on is on and march into the Carribean...will be interesting to see.


Chronology: 98L formed, 99L formed, 90L formed and became TD06 -- I stand to be corrected if I am wrong. (imho)
Didn't Hurricane79 say somthing about doing a 1am forcast track. So far he has been closer than anyone else on this blog.
Ray - You are completely right! As I've been saying for days, the GFDL has had a superior handle on the track of these systems this year, especially compared to the other ones. I would place a good amount of money on that one (but of course not all of it, and only if I had to - LOL).
570. eye
cowboy, i thought i might of messed that up, lol

yeah, whatever is SW of the TD blew up one night, but then basically disappeared the next day..then 90 blew up and maintained itself and then became TD 6.
From looking at these models tonight TD6 might very well recurve out to sea.




kylejourdan2006,
Another one at landfall. May be on to something.
Either that or time for another wobbly-pop:)
Latest GFDL puts it e of the Bahamas headed towards the se US as a cat 4, this WILL waiver between now and then.
574. eye
yeah, looks like 70W is the time, and looks like a good amount of agreement(right now) lol
23, actually, I did notice that paragraph with some satisfaction because it tells me he's midnfull of the hurricane Andrew scenario. I want to see the weather get back to normal here by thursday as NWS keeps suggesting before I entertain a high building back in to steer TD6 or whatever Westward into us the SE in general.
576. eye
NHC's is almost the furthest S of them all on that chart.
this storm and its projected path n all reminds me of HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999.. check it out for historical comparisons
Yea the NWS did say things are suppose to clear up around here on thursday.
Most hurricanes ever in one day:
On August 22, 1893, four hurricanes were occurring simultaneously: storm #3 approaching Nova Scotia, Canada, storm #4 between Bermuda and the Bahamas, storm #6 northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and storm #7 west of the Cape Verde Islands. Storm #4 would end up making a direct hit on New York City as a Category 1 hurricane two days later and storm #6 ending up hitting Georgia and South Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane (the Sea Islands Hurricane) and killing 1000-2000 people. The only other known date with four hurricanes occurring at the same time was September 25, 1998, when hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were in existence.
SFL, looking down the barrel of a gun only to have it veer at the last second....very typical this time of year. South Florida's biggest threat this time of year with this early october regime is from off the Yucatan peninsula.
This could end up clipping us here in New England if the trough slows down in a recurvature scenario and or we get a deep ull near the great lakes. 70-75 longitiude=New England.
Link
Links back up.
Could it be possible that the wave behind 6 could slingshot around it to the SW?
They look to be avoiding each other.
I will have my new forecast up as soon as the noaa images allow me to load and interpret them... ETA 2 AM
Great Article from Palm Beach Post - it's confirming that we're all wasting our time basing it off the models:

Such prediction programs, known as models, have led to huge improvements in the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. Now they're acquiring a growing fan base because of the Internet. But some meteorologists worry that amateur weather-watchers will place too much stock in the raw results.

"It's not really knowledge. It's really just information," said Geoff Shaughnessy, a meteorologist at the South Florida Water Management District. "In meteorology you learn to be really skeptical of models. You've got to know when it's garbage and when it's good."


You can read the full article here.
I like this one even better from that same article:

"They're not official forecasts," said Robert Hart, an assistant professor of meteorology at Florida State University. "An experienced forecaster knows their weaknesses and strengths. It's hard for someone to come in from the Web and say, 'This one looks more right than the others.' "

EXACTLY what a lot of people are doing on here...
can anyone identify the center of this storm?
Thanks, hurrykanekata! So, it appears that two storms at, or practically at the same time has not occured...and still prolly not likely, but I guess it could happen.

Also, with the lastest models, consider this: Wouldn't model error leave only one chance in three of a US landfall? Misses right-out to sea; on track-out to sea; misses left-possible US landfall. So, odds are about what, 66 percent chance of being a fish storm.

Does 98L still have a chance to develop? What endices are needed to make the storm east of TD06 designated 91L, or for that matter any next wave getting "invest"igated?

Thanks, all, still learning. So, my questions may be crazy sometimes.

My last night prediction of tropical depression 6 becoming a tropical storm by 15:00 UTC SEP 4 failed. Once again the problem seems to be wind-shear effects not represented adequately in my model.

The system following tropical depression 5 remains in an energy depleted zone and so no forecast of its development into a tropical depression can be made for the next 24 hours.

I am starting a longer-term tropical depression watch for the possibility of a new low to form off the coast of Africa around 15N 20W, beginning at 18:00 UTC September 8.

Clifs little storm model results for tropical depression 6 based on data current at 3:00 UTC September 5:

Sept 5
3:00 UTC (17.299999N, 44.799999W) Tropical Depression
9:00 UTC (17.824999N, 45.491669W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (18.250000N, 46.112503W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (18.600000N, 47.231251W) Tropical Storm
Sept 6
3:00 UTC (19.000000N, 48.015625W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (19.287500N, 49.082813W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (19.643749N, 49.866409W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (19.909374N, 50.983204W) Tropical Storm
Sept 7
3:00 UTC (20.254686N, 51.847855W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (20.514843N, 53.067677W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (20.857422N, 54.015091W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (21.116211N, 55.276295W) Tropical Storm
Sept 8
3:00 UTC (21.445606N, 56.244400W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (21.735302N, 57.290951W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (22.005150N, 58.376724W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (22.265076N, 59.482113W) Tropical Storm
Sept 9
3:00 UTC (22.582539N, 60.597305W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (22.991268N, 61.717403W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (23.445633N, 62.839951W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (24.057816N, 64.188721W) Tropical Storm
Sept 10
3:00 UTC (24.431408N, 65.555611W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (24.757370N, 66.871552W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (25.070351N, 67.792023W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (25.685175N, 68.439758W) Tropical Storm
Sept 11
3:00 UTC (26.142399N, 69.161293W) Tropical Storm
9:00 UTC (26.370636N, 69.521553W) Tropical Storm
15:00 UTC (26.459377N, 69.584511W) Tropical Storm
21:00 UTC (26.488056N, 69.736961W) Tropical Storm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.8 44.4 300./ 9.9
6 17.1 45.1 299./ 7.5
12 17.4 46.0 285./ 8.2
18 17.9 46.7 304./ 8.4
24 18.4 47.6 301./10.7
30 18.9 48.3 304./ 7.9
36 19.8 49.1 317./11.3
42 19.9 50.0 282./ 8.4
48 20.3 51.3 287./13.1
54 20.6 52.3 283./ 9.5
60 21.0 53.3 292./10.7
66 21.5 54.8 289./14.8
72 21.6 56.1 273./11.6
78 21.9 57.3 285./12.1
84 22.2 58.7 284./13.2
90 22.5 60.1 282./13.6
96 22.6 61.3 272./11.1
102 22.7 62.4 277./10.1
108 23.1 63.4 292./ 9.9
114 23.4 64.3 285./ 9.0
120 23.7 64.9 302./ 5.7
126 24.1 65.6 299./ 8.0

Kyle,
Thats why nobody here realy watches them and makes their own predictions.
Personnaly, if I cant see it out the front door, could go anywhere. or as someone else said " Weather is the only job you can screw up and still get paid"
Exactly Panic - So that should be advice to base your forecast off what you know by experience, not by what the models say. And, I say it's going to come awful close to brusing the U.S., if not making landfall. I hate saying this because I DO NOT want a major hurricane hitting the U.S., but that's no reason for me to lie about my true forecast, after spending hours analyzing data and images.
After the nor'easters of December 1992 and March 1993 devastated Rockaway, Coch sent a group of his coastal-geology undergrads to observe the Army Corps of Engineers replenishing beaches with sand dredged from the sea. The students reported back that "the beach was covered in garbage. Coch remembers telling them, "Get used to it. This is New York City." But they said, "No, this is funny garbage." In the dredged-up sand, Coch's students found hundreds of artifactsplates, whiskey bottles, teapots, beer mugs, lumps of coal and, what proved to be the most telling clue of all, an old hurricane lamp. Mystified at how a treasure trove of 19th-century objects could have wound up underwater hundreds of feet off the coast of Rockaway, Coch and his students began investigating. It took them about two years to unravel the mystery of Hog Island: New York City's version of Atlantis.

It turns out there was once a small, sandy spit of an island off the southern coast of Rockaway. In the years after the Civil War, developers built saloons and bathhouses, and Hog Island became a sort of 1890s version of the Hamptons. During the summers, the city's Democratic bosses used Hog Island as a kind of outdoor annex of Tammany Hall. That all ended on the night of August 23, 1893, when a terrifying category-2 hurricane rolled up from Norfolk, Virginia, and made landfall on what is now JFK airport.

The storm was a major event. All six front-page columns of the August 25, 1893 New York Times were dedicated to the "unexampled fury" of the "West Indian monster" and the damage it wrought throughout the region. Dozens of boats were sunk, and scores of sailors perished. In Central Park "more than a hundred noble trees were torn up by the roots," and thousands of sparrows lay dead on the ground. "Gangs of small boys roamed through the Park in the early hours of the morning collecting the dead sparrows and picking their feathers."

At the brand-new Met Life building at Madison Avenue and 23rd Street, a heavy-iron fence was torn away by the wind, plunging 10 stories and crashing through a stained-glass dome before landing on a mosaic "including quantities of costly Mexican onyx." In Brooklyn, at Wyckoff and Myrtle Avenues, "the water in the street was up to a man's waist," and residents used ladders to get in and out of their houses. Most of the boats moored at the Williamsburg Yacht Club were "sunk, driven ashore or demolished." The East River rose "until it swept over the sea wall in the Astoria district and submerged the Boulevard." At Coney Island, 30-foot waves swept 200 yards inland, destroying nearly every man-made structure in its path and wrecking the elevated railroad.

"Hog Island largely disappeared that night," Coch says. "As far as I know, it is the only incidence of the removal of an entire island by a hurricane."

Hurricanes, Coch reminds, "operate on a geologic scale."

Will New York City get hit by the Big One this season? It's impossible to say. But we do know this: The risk of a major hurricane hitting the metropolitan region is significantly greater than it has been in a long time. Meteorologists have observed that Atlantic Ocean hurricanes tend to wax and wane over roughly 20-year cycles. Nineteen ninety-five marked the beginning of a period of above-normal hurricane activity. We are now in the middle of that cycle. The same climate conditions that made last year's hurricane season so active are in place and even augmented this year. Low wind sheer and sea-surface pressure and a favorable African easterly jet stream all create ideal conditions for Atlantic hurricanes. El Nio, the unusually warm current that appears in the tropical Pacific off the coast of Ecuador every three to seven years, tends to dampen hurricane activity in the Atlantic. This year there is no El Nio.

Additionally, scientists say that man-made global warming is increasing the odds that tropical storms will dump on New York City with greater frequency and intensity. Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures have steadily risen over the last decade. Hurricanes are essentially gigantic steam engines; they gain power from warm seas.

"With global warming there is more moisture in the atmosphere," says Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "This moisture is the main fuel for hurricanes and tropical storms." This year, tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are the warmest they have ever been in recorded history, about two degrees Fahrenheit above normal. And while there is debate within the hurricane research community as to how much impact global warming ultimately has, there is no longer any question that global warming is contributing to more extreme weather events around the world.
Guys my current thinking is until we get a good fix on were the LLC is finally going to be we really cant take these models to seriously right now.
Kyle, I hope your wrong because my parents just had their windstorm insurance double from$4000 to $8000 and they wanted it all NOW. My parents don't have that kind of money and thus no windstorm coverage abd it's all thanks to Citizens insurance, the insurer of last resort being allowed by the state to sell some policies. How has this screwed so many this year!!!
23, amen to that. It's garbage in and garbage out.
Good nite, all.
New forecast is up Link
kyle

thats true to an extent but many in here have little if any clue of what they are saying. those are the ones that also get the most upset and bash the nhc and all the other things. mnay of us are quite knowledgable and than its just an interpretation of the same data. but there is a diff when some one has no clue what they are saying. but like i said to an extent ur right
nebula420,
Up in BC we may not have the Canes but every year we get the fires. My sister watched her insurance go up $4500 after the Kelowna fire in 04. Amasing how they get you

hurricane23,
IMHO, the fix on the LLC is going to bounce for awhile. There's so much going on in and about 6 to really fix a position. Cant even get a good fix on Sat, Damn confusing.
Hey all, here is the flaweather.com track: Link
So are you still thinking as I am that the circulation to the NE will be cutoff and the SWLY circulation with the better outflow will win out? I almost see three distinct votices. One to the NE with strong but dubious convection, one to the SW and one weak one in the center of it all. Any opinion on the ULL's in the gulf and around Florida?
I agree with you lefty. They think that they are above the government, when really no one in this blog (other than Dr. Masters) can really say the NHC is wrong. There are tons of meteorologists there who do this tracking and analyzing as their job every day, many who have worked there for years. I would never say the NHC is wrong, because many times they are right, and deserve more credit than they receive.

nebula - I hope I am wrong to with my forecast, but that won't change my mind as to what I think will happen. I think there are many people in here who just decided to stop in one day and have no idea about what they are talking about. They just say what they want to happen and think that they are completely right. I've been tracking these storms religously for quite a few years now and know the patterns that cause different scenarios.
Kyle, I just don't see it unless these ULL's disappear. This pattern is too chaotic, chaotic being one of the primary reason there have been so few storms. I still believe our risk this year will be from off the Yucatan later in September or early Oct. when more fronts make it into the gulf.
I put the Center a little more SW then the NHC. 16.2N 45.8W.
Guys i know these models will change many times in the coming days with the LLC bouncing all over the place but Heres another view at the models which at the present time seem in somewhat good agreement that this thing may never get close to the U.S.









Here I sit all broken hearted, watched the latest Sat and only started, to predict the path it will take today, to only find it went another way.
It must be getting late.:)
I hope you are right h23, I wish that I knew those 7 days forecasts were set in stone as well
Let me clarify something because I get the impression Lefty is refering to my comments. The NHC does the best with what they have and they've done a very good job---at times. But just because they are touted as experts doesn't mean they are the end all and be all of forecasting. They are human. Sometimes they are just too cautious. Sometimes not cautious enough. I've seen forecasts where clearly they took two outliers and drew a line down the middle simply for the sake of not knowing what else to do. Just remember this PHD means piled higher and deeper, and professions with that amount of money spent to attain that PHD guarantees they will defend their turf at all costs from us novices.
Not much from the 2:05am Discussion from the NHC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.3N 44.8W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
Wouldn't model error leave only one chance in three of a US landfall? Misses right-out to sea; on track-out to sea; misses left-possible US landfall. So, odds are about what, 66 percent chance of being a fish storm.

Does 98L still have a chance to develop? What endices are needed to make the storm east of TD06 designated 91L, or for that matter any next wave getting "invest"igated?

KYLEJOURDAN: So, you say you know the scenarios. What are the possibilities, dynamics that allow two storms to make a US landfall at, or about the same, not the same area of landfall: one could be NE and one the GOM. Since, it hasn't apprently happened, could it?

Crazy questions, I know. Thanks.
Nebula. that is the NHC rule in a nutshell
The sad part is that eventualy one of these will make landfall in the US or Antillies , or Mexico.
The great part is that most on this site care enought to watch and keep an eye out for all.
I'm out till tommorow. Till then,
May the sea's be dry and the shear be hight, and above all Never Panic.
The circulation to the south of TD6 is flareing up again.SEE HERE
Just checking in quickly:

If you guys haven't seen, the 00z GFDL does not actually weaken the ridge now. In fact, the last 2 frames show a possible strengthening of the ridge east of Bermuda. Just another solution to think about this Tuesday morning. Way too early to tell if it will be a fish or landfalling storm.
goodnight guys.be back tommorow.
very true atmosweather...
Goodnight all.
I'm making a WAG, but I think we're gonna get two, possibly three storms. 98L may survive and move west, who knows on TD06, and (?)Invest 91L sure seems to have some spin on it with some possibilities. Any takers?
atmosweather what does that mean the ridge is strengthing
Tornado - it is trying to build with higher surface pressures. That would induce a more westward track long term.
on that 00z gfdl it looks like it still moving northwest with the ridge becoming stronger will it turn back west just asking
atmos are you still there
Yes tornado, a NW track followed by a westward movement due to that stronger high.

Ok, gotta go to bed.
I back for a moment. Anyone still around.
See ya'll in the morning!!! Should be interesting to see which vortex wins out.
Link

Still seems like lots of shear to the north, and less shear to the west.
627. ebzz
Well, I just woke up and saw that it's still a depression and saw the track. I'm convinced that it'll go nw a tad bit more and turn directly west based on the position of everything in the atlantic. We still have a lot of time though so I shouldn't say anything.
628. IKE
TD6....what can you say? Lost in the middle of the Atlantic ocean.

Day 97 of the 2006 Atlantic tropical season. 86 days to go and it's over.

It's a yawner.....Dr. Gray says 8 more storms out of this? I don't think so. I predicted we would get to the "H" storm this year. I may be close after all.
629. IKE
According to the models, the main threat for TD6 is Bermuda.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:58 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
Tropical Depression Six is having trouble making up its mind where its center should be. The center it organized around is getting competition from another center of circulation about 400 miles to the southwest, as seen in the latest QuikSCAT image posted at 8:30pm EDT tonight (Figure 1). The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and is causing major difficulties for TD 6, which can't make up its mind which center to consolidate around. Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers
G'Mornin'
meant too highlight--Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers
633. IKE
I think the "center to the southwest", is about gone. The NE center appears to be the main one and is absorbing the other "SW center".
634. IKE
You can clearly see it on a visible now that the sun has risen on TD6.
635. WSI
Dr. M - "Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers"

NHC 5AM - "LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK.SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION."

Not much faith can be put in specifics with the models right now until we have a specific COC. Will be interesting to see if it can survive the shear.

Tropical links organized by topic, here.
Good morning storm watchers. Less than two wks to go for our CV season. So far we have a bunch of slow movers and only one hurricane. That could change if we get development south or south west of Fl. But right now it is okay.
637. IKE
Looks like the COC is at about 17.5N, 47W. Or one of them........
638. IKE
Which is close to what the NHC has.
639. IKE
It's getting sheared and may not survive.
not that I know anything, but it looks as if the ULL is pulling out and shear is beginning to lessen very recently on the W
The last quickscat looks more defined for LLC center at 16N 45W for TD06, don't see anything left of 98L.
I think 15N 29W will become invest today.
Looks like something is going on at 21.5N 58W on satellite, quickscat missed that spot, so can't really tell.
Will be interesting to see next couple of model runs for TD06 with the singular circulation too see if track changes.
WV loop is what I was trying to type
Visiable is out. Looks alot better and large. Finally a surfing storm for Puerto Rico and USA
the circulation of TD06 looks good on Quickscat,better than it has last 48 hours. I don't see it strengthening while shearing is going on, but when shearing gets east of center it should buff up.
Good Morning All,

Ahhh what a peaceful blog this am.

Trollaway apply directly to the blog.
Looking at the visable sat.Seems like td 06 may be getting it's act together.. Anyone else think so ??
Yep, looks more organized on quickscat image
Now it's just a waiting game to see
where it will go.
Good morning.
Good morning all.
morning nash,

quiet here compaired to yesterday. lets hope it stays that way
I agree that it looks significantly better organized on QuickScat, but the satellite presentation is still awful. I think it will survive and become Hurricane Florence anyway, but that may be partially wishcasting. I'll have an advisory this afternoon, probably at 5.
Since the NHC in discussion said--GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...

I think we should look for a big jump in intensification over next 24 hours,...lol.
good morning Rand.
Yeah, let's hope it stays cool in here today.
Looking forward to seeing the 06z GFDL.
Wow, the latest FSU must have been doing some of that infamous "Ocean Coupling." It blows this thing into a monster.
Yeah, FSU is on steroids!
StormW...I see that trough fracturing also. If it doesn't get out of the picture there won't be much left of 06. Even as bad as it looks on sats right now it looks better now than last night. Multiple circulations and shear hindering it have not ruined it yet and the winds are still up! Tenacious little depression!
I wonder if the COC is SW of the main convection.
Seems to be a pattern this season. All of the systems have shown a tendency to buck the odds.
665. IKE
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 6:20 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
Since the NHC in discussion said--GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...

I think we should look for a big jump in intensification over next 24 hours,...lol.


Yeah...really! Watch the NHC on their 11am EDT discussion....a slow, but steady intensification.

Then on the 5 pm EDT discussion...is a chance of faster intensification.

Then by tomorrow....RAPID intensification.
According to the latest NHC track I would say thet this will not make landfall in the US
LOL....if NHC is throwing out the models...Look Out!!

Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 11:28 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
According to the latest NHC track I would say thet this will not make landfall in the US


Interesting though, they wouldn't say that based off their track.
The track will change again. I'll bet the ridge is stronger than they are banking on.
671. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 6:32 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
The track will change again. I'll bet the ridge is stronger than they are banking on.


I'm beginning to think that too.

There is still 20-40 knots of shear effecting the northern part of TD6

shear

Plus there is still some dust in the region

dust
If you look, the FSU model is showing a stronger ridge and to some extent, so is the GFDL.
good morning boys and girls
Nash, IKE...I agree. We could see a lower and more Westerly track out of this.
676. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 6:32 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
IKE,
You shuold be able to see the LLC on this.


RGB LOOP


Either I've got a bad hangover, and I didn't drink a drop last night, or that RGB loop jumps all over the eastern Atlantic.
Morning Rand, Ric.
680. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:35 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
Nash, IKE...I agree. We could see a lower and more Westerly track out of this.


That latest GFDL model is too close for comfort for the Bahamas.

Problem is..is this blows up to a major, poor Dr. Masters blog will be infested. I'll have to seek refuge somewhere else!
Link

It's the MM5FSU run.
This one wont even get close to USA. Bermuda might get the fringes. Watch south and south west this yr.
Ike- I will provide the refuge on my blog. I won't be around here much in the evenings since that's when the loonies come aboard.
Morning everyone.
whole lot of long range predictions on this thing...and it might not even get a name....not that i ever want to be confused with the voice of reason
688. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 6:38 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
IKE,
Around 18N; 047W


I see that...you're about right on the coordinates..appears to be moving almost due west and it is almost void of convection...SHEAR........
689. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 6:38 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
Ike- I will provide the refuge on my blog. I won't be around here much in the evenings since that's when the loonies come aboard.


Good and thanks.......
690. IKE
Now that I look at TD6 again..appears to be moving WNW.
691. IKE
Has a large circulation. I doubt it gets sheared to death. If the shear lessons, this could be a significant system.
I dont think it is so much shear as cooler than normal water. Around 50 west the water warms up.
Good morning everyone
Good morning Sandcrab.
CV systems are fun to watch. Got to get to work. Lots of giants have bombed out north of Puerto Rico in the past. This is nothing out of the ordinary. Have a nice day.
I see most are in an agreemeent that things are changing. The TWC just said the HH planes may start flying in the next day or 2
Once it reaches 55W they will send the HH plane.
Good morning all looks like Flo will go out to sea.
Morning everyone, I see 06 is still struggling along.

My bets are still on Bermuda/Fish storm at 75%...US lanfall 25%

Back to work. Ya'll have a great day!

See ya ric, rand, and you other folks!

StormJunkie.com-Easily navigate some of the best tropical and weather sites on the web. Including forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
We don't know Clear. Still too early, and the models have been known to downplay/overplay Highs, so there's no telling.
I have an open invitation to fly a storm with them I am gonna do it one day.lol Gotta give up my bad habit first.lol Might drive me bananas. (smoking)
have fun storm...nice pics of ernesto by the way......
ah ok so the ridge is supposed to set in and cause the bend back? Any way off to the gym be back in about an hour and 10 min
hmmm.....storm...can tell you're not navy....casue then..you would have said meet at teasers
good morning all

91L invest is up
I dunno if it's been mentioned yet, but we have Invest 91L.
where is 91L located?
what about the wave behind 06 that was in futher south any prognostications on that one oh by the way my weather station is up adress kprsanju7
well, before i just ran across StormJunkie, I was gonna say "fish storm unless it hits Bermuda".
looks near to 13N33W
Link
Navy says 14N32W
91L...14N....32W.
Thank you guys.
Invest 91L. is that the blob behind TD6 or the one coming of the coast?
you go stormy....LOL.......we navy aren't as high class and sophisticated as you coasties.... we buy a 12 pack...bag of ice and sit out by the water...using out sloppy joe coolie
gotta get ready for work
A quick post on TD6
The ATL looks more like late Sept than early and the Cape Verde season could be closed much sooner than normal this yr.
I still believe that TD6 will be the victim of the trough that continues to dig S from its NW
Maybe something from the remnants of 98L further S has a chance but I just don't see TD6 making any headway to the W

BB later
Behind TD06
? for anyone with knowledge!

Woulden't THIS be the fracture and ULL developing to the W of 06? And if so, I thought the 5am said that wasn't going to happen for a couple days?
NHC
BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
thanks
The LLC of TD 06 is SW of upper convection getting pulled NE. I think as soon as it gets a little further west of shearing, TD06 will get to become Florence pretty quickly.
Look at quickscat on TD06 to see what I mean, lot better looking on last quickscat.
Looks to me as if TD6 has consolidated its circulation? Will be looking for TRW firing in the bands coming into the center from the SW and SE. IF, and its still a very BIG IF, TD6 continues to congeal and gets some convection wrapping into the core...it will be a very large areal coverage storm. Gonna continue to be very interesting and a difficult forecast problem.
Thanks SW! Just curious.
730. IKE
Posted By: ProgressivePulse at 7:12 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
? for anyone with knowledge!

Woulden't THIS be the fracture and ULL developing to the W of 06? And if so, I thought the 5am said that wasn't going to happen for a couple days?


It does look like it's already starting.

I'd love to go to Key West. I'm in the same state, but all the way at the other end.
ProgressivePulse ...Looks like it is happening now doesn't it?
wow just checked the quicksat of 91L already has a closed circulation but only a few 20knt barbs.

quicksat 91l
quicksat shows TD6 has its act together.. just one large circulation now. alot of 35knt barbs.

td06

td6
Novice here Rand! but it sure does.
736. IKE
Posted By: Bonedog at 7:20 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
quicksat shows TD6 has its act together.. just one large circulation now. alot of 35knt barbs.


Might be close to being named.
fracture?....looks like a clean break to me....pp...looks like a good call.....nice view...looks like the quarterback has caled for a sweep left.....good blocking and he'll curve north nicely
That would be great Rand! Lets hope it all goes down like that.
Ricderr that is sorry! I still have 3/4 cup of coffee to go yet! Mouse is still a little sluggish at the wheel.
Been watching that trough since 5:30. Definitely fracturing....that scatt showed a solid circulation....elongated but appears to be at 16N...45W. So today should be interesting regarding development.
thats what I am thinking. Maybe the 11am.
Yeah, they might do it at 11. Been threatening to do it for more than 24hrs. They've been waiting for a decent circulation.
The trough break up. Is that what i am seeing on the WV. Upper left area going from bright white to a greyish look?
744. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:30 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
Yeah, they might do it at 11. Been threatening to do it for more than 24hrs. They've been waiting for a decent circulation.


Might upgrade it to a 40 mph TS.
Good Morning, Everyone.

Posted By: StormW at 11:58 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
I think (hypothetically) that all the systems should form, stay weak, and congregate over Key West. Then we could do the same, all meet at Sloppy Joe's and have a beer (or two, or three)! LOL


Hey stormw, this is the best idea I've heard all day(granted, i did just get up, ohhhh, 8 mins ago, but the statement is still valid).
Posted By: Randrewl at 12:30 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Yeah, they might do it at 11. Been threatening to do it for more than 24hrs. They've been waiting for a decent circulation.


If thats what they were waiting for the sure got it on that last pass
Bonedog...That was the best pass yet. Very clear what has happened there.
I was reading a discussion yesterday said td 6 should start moving rapidily west. It might.
I think some of the latest model runs are on track with intesity. Things are happening faster than expected.

752. IKE
The 8:05 AM EDt discussion from NHC..."...Special feature...
the center of Tropical Depression Six at 05/0900 UTC is near
17.7n 45.9w in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It is moving
west-northwest 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt."
Looking very poor...at best a fish storm...and a concern to some shipping interests
755. IKE
Looks a hell-u-va lot better than it did last night. Large system.
LLC looks like it is really taking off to west on Satellite. Will the convection keep up with it?
adding to my last post the GFDL and the MM5fsu are the two modles I was refering to
Without some more convection building up.....even though the circulation is good and the winds are there....NHC might wait to see how it develops today. Still a big question with the shear and will that circulation hold.
Hey Rand. If they have the COC at around 16N, that would be a couple of degrees to the south of where they have it now.
At least we have a clear circulation to look at thanks to a general lack of convection on the left side. IMHO, 6 is running west. I don't see the NHC track or models panning out.

ALL IMHO
morning everybody.....




would seem the f-13 is showing winds at about 40mph..... so between the system getting better organised, and the quickscat/f-13 are showing TS winds, we should have flo today!

didn't a few years back they have a twin eye storm with two names? I think it was Lisa and Matt or something like that.
Rather than retyping what Rand wrote, I agree with you. It is still under some pretty heavy shear and will be until this ULL gets better defined.
Nash....The scatt showed the center a bit more south of the official location. Hard to tell for me at least...
I agree Rand. I would like to see more convection fire up before calling it Flo. It has 3 hrs to go to get its act together. I think it will, this storm is a strong one.

I mean even without convection over its LLC its still pulling in 35knt winds
I think they may have to shift the track southward once they get a better handle on where the center is.
767. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:45 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
Nash....The scatt showed the center a bit more south of the official location.


I agree.
Just wondering what will give Florence a northern turn up the east coast...assuming it makes it that far? Is there any possibility that it could still hit the east coast?
TD 6 a Gilligan Storm..LOL
Yes Hurrycain. Both possibilities are equal right now. If the center is shifted southward, that makes it worse for a U.S. landfall. We would want a more northerly COC to better increase the chances of recurvature.
771. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 7:49 AM CDT on September 05, 2006.
TD 6 a Gilligan Storm..LOL


Just...sit right back and you'll hear a tale..a tale of a faithful trip...that started from this tropic port...aboard this tiny ship.
In 2004 correct me if I'm wrong but hurricane Lisa and tropical storm Matt started out the same way as this TD6 and turned into a 2 headed storm??
Posted By: nash28 at 8:48 AM AST on September 05, 2006.
I think they may have to shift the track southward once they get a better handle on where the center is

I agree. I also agree that any shift like this is going to show up really large in the track down the road! Not good for the recurve.
It's gonna be a long week I'm afraid. This thing is gonna take its sweet time deciding on where it is going.
thx....but what are the forecasters seeing that is moving the storm north close to shore?
hello all whats up! whats new with are TD 6 and whats up with 91L and do we no where 91L is going update me thanks
05/1145 UTC 16.9N 47.7W T1.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean
when did the Navy site put up 91L?


well, two more area's to "worry" about!
91L

Good Morning Everybody
thel.....john madden has nothing on you....!!!
"thx....but what are the forecasters seeing that is moving the storm north close to shore?
"

it is high pressure that cause the storm to go west..... a weakness or "hole" in this high pressure could allow the storm to curve north.....
Good Morning Weather456.
would some one update me thnaks
Where can I find any info in reference to Ernesto's strength at landfall in NC and specifically the possibility of that being "upgraded" to Cat 1 status later on?

Just curious!
Dr. Flood
I was just thinking and looking. If it starts south of forcast and curves later... could this be a northeast landfall? I mean doesnt seem like it would take much of a shift to make it landfall up here?
"thel.....john madden has nothing on you....!!!
"

except 50 million doallars! LOL
Bonedog....Just wild speculation on track right now. Anyone on the East coast US is in the cross hairs right now. Not for another 4-5 days till anything will be remotely clear on the track for any US strike.
Taz, you have mail.
Right now, anyone from FL to the Carolinas is an equal strike risk.
Hey GS. Yes, had a nice weekend thank you.
She is going to be a big one
morning taz-usually when I log on I just read the last 2 pages of comments; people are usually already talking about what I wanna here. By reading whats already posted, it lets me catch up pretty quick.
Greetings All,

Are those this mornings models for TD6? If so what a difference a few hours makes.
I look at the pic's
I understand Rand. Was just a wonder. I remeber that show on TWC when they talked about a NY strike their "model" storm developed in this area and with these conditions. Just like when they had the model storm for a NO flood and we all know what happened there.
mornin' gulf!!

(Damn I love the mornings in here; all the info. none of the BS!!!!)
ok......help me out....i'm looking at ramdis...and the center doesn't look that far south of the NHC.......someone looking at something else?
"Where can I find any info in reference to Ernesto's strength at landfall in NC and specifically the possibility of that being "upgraded" to Cat 1 status later on? "

it was close on erny, but i am not sure if there is any evidence to support that erny was indeed a cat1 at landfall..... erny seemed to have so pretty high winds aloft, but the conditions at landfall were such that i think "some" of the highest winds didnt make it to the surface.

but ernesto was buiding an eyewall at the time of landfall, so flip a coin.... could have gone either way.....

one thing i will add..... the pressure at landfall, was lower than when ernesto was a hurricane south of Hisp......
Link


look at this link Please Please Please Please as you can see you can start to see some t-storm starting to filling in a little bet but wait what do you see that comeing down i think that is the front that we been talking about do you see it???


nash28 thaks i got your mail
No problem Taz.
Posted By: Rick54 at 1:09 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Greetings All,

Are those this mornings models for TD6? If so what a difference a few hours makes.


Nope, those are for 'brand spanking new' 91L!
: nash28 would yyou look at my link
lol Gulf!

the three-headed monster! LOL
Looks like the cloud cover is starting to cover up the LLC that was on the latest quicksat.

Also the IR shows a few storms begining to fire.

td6
Mornin everyone .Looks like nothing changed over the weekend. Still no dominant center. Anything from dissipation to a hurricane by the end of the week seems possible. As far as track the Caribbean to any points north is also possible. Still a wait and see right now.
Nope, those are for 'brand spanking new' 91L!

Good, I thought I was seeing things. 91L then was the wave behind TD6? Or did it develop out of a split with TD-6
Gulf- Do you see the COC to the SW of the main convection?

I am seeing several vorticies as well. Also, there is some good convection this morning.
i had a hunch a couple days ago 98l may become the dominant low.... it was the furthest from all the shear.... but i also thought yesterday that 98l would get absorbed.... apparently that didnt happen! LOL

opps forgot the quicksat pass...

td6qs
LOL @ Three Headed Monster!
loook at this uh oh for TD 6 they keeep calling for a cat 4 or 5 hurricane in a few days

lool
in the last couple hours, convection on td6 have been on the increase.... guess we will have to see if this continues.... if it does, we should have flo at 11am......
Taz- It is expected to be a hurricane, that's almost a given. What the big question is is how far south is the real COC and where and when will it make a turn to the north.
Has a system ever bypassed a weakness in a High and decided to just go further West? Is a system moving into a weakness of a High always a given?
between watching TD06 and Fl. election results today, I might hit overload.
nash28 good ?
Taz.... until the center of td6 gets better organized, i would throw out the "track" on the model.... but the gfdl certainly could be on to something as far as intensity.....

shear is forecast to be near zero in a day or two.... thus intensity should increase significantly! gfdl has been spitting out cat3/4 for the last several runs..... and i start paying attention..... it is way too early, but this storm has alot of similarities to floyd.........
Can someone give me a 15 second update as to what changed during the night..i have to leave for work in a few minutes.. I mean someone who knows what they are talking about
Posted By: thelmores at 1:19 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
i had a hunch a couple days ago 98l may become the dominant low.... it was the furthest from all the shear.... but i also thought yesterday that 98l would get absorbed.... apparently that didnt happen! LOL


Would agree on both points(as far as past tense thinking)
Just goes to show how lazy TCs are; always 'finding the path of least resistance'; no memory for what they were just doing; just following the energy!!!
How about a link to the latest run of the GFDL?
GFDL Link
her what dr M say

you can throw all the model runs out the window


LOL
kiss...come back at 8 tonight..you'll fit in well....
New modle runs,last nights comments from Dr Masters. Look forward to new info from him this morning.
"Has a system ever bypassed a weakness in a High and decided to just go further West? Is a system moving into a weakness of a High always a given?"

picture a ball on the goung rolling..... if the surface is flat, i will just roll on the surface..... but if there is a "hole" at the surface big enough for the ball to fall into..... thats like a "hole" in the high pressure, or a weakness.....

sometimes the hols is there, but not big enough to let the ball fall all the way in the hole.... or it gets stuck, or in the case of a storm, can stall... or drift......

hope that helps.... somebody had a similar analagy, SJ i think..... it will ride that "high" pressure ridge till it finds a weakness or goes around it......
thats in older runs her are the newer runs

Link
rick54-wave that was behind

Gatorx-Still no real center; some winds are still TS strenght; starting to org. right now; still some shear; if center pick S side of storm more chance of landfall, if it picks N side more chance of recurve! Did I miss anything important?
cant wait to see what the good Doc has to say about TD6 this morning. That quicksat pass was very impressive with a single closed cirrculation and 30 and 35knt wind barbs
I believe if you look at the short wave you will see that the coc has started to come together between the two former centers and appears to be moving westward.
Morning ya'll!

I see TD06 is still hanging around. It will get interesting once it gets away from the shear, as thel stated.

Rick, you can easily find some of the best model pages, as well as imager and a lot more from one page.

See ya'll later
SJ
Looks like TD06 is taking off like a bat out of hell to the west. Don't see a stall for today.
thelmores-

That is sort of what happened to Jeanne two years ago...just wandering around the high until it found a path...actually made a loop de loop and hit Fl...this is what makes me nervous about this system out there..it is forecasted to recurve just as Jeanne was.
Gulf-that's what I see(from quickscat)
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 1:34 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
coc near 17/46 ???


Thats what it lookes like from the quicksat
Thanks Seminolefan....off to work..I'll catch with you all this evening.
It look to me that the stated center is now totaly exposed. If a new center doesn't form and take over or the current one doesn't fire new convection dissipation is a posiblity. The NHC mentions dissipation as possible in their discussion this morning. From that same discussion I gather the NHC really has no clue right now, and given they are the best, I don't thing anybody else does either. I certainly don't.

gatorx-yeah, i'm sure I'll be circus time when we meet again!!!

Enjoy your Mond, oops, Tuesday!!! LOL
BRAND NEW FOR TODAY!!!

TD-6 GOES WATER VAPOR ANIMATION - Current to 9/5/2006 1145Z

Here's the latest water vapor animation that plays from 9/3/2006 2045Z - 9/5/2006 1145Z
ricderr, you havin' spam and grits for breakfast, sounds good,lol
I agree Gulf, the exposed coc looks to be going due west, away from the convection.
Lets see if I get this..

"kiss my grits" was the catch phrase of FLO,from the old tv show Alice...

td06 has the potential to become FLO...hmmm.

Trollaway.. apply directly to the blog.x3

Posted By: nash28 at 1:38 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Assclown count thus far today= 1


Hey nash,
are you gonna count individual assclowns or total assclown comments? If we track both each assclown could get a 'dumbshit index' rating of their own.
vortex, take a look at the short wave infrared and tell me there is no center coming together. WHY is NHC the best? PHD: Piled higher and deeper, but you are right about one thing, they don't know what is going on each 6 hours any better than anyone else here.
well boys and girls...meeting time..have fun
we have a TS the navy site has the winds at 35kts and a 1005mb we have a TS
Tazmanian...I saw that too. They upgraded the winds and pressure.
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Tropical Depression Six..
Tuesday, September 5, 2006
9:20 AM AST


Tropical Depression Six is located at 17.7N/45.9W, moving WNW at 13mph in the open central Atlantic. The depression is packing winds of 35mph and a MCP of 1007mbar. The depression a bit disorganized this morning with some SW shear affecting it; but continues to maintain its circulation and may merge with the circulation of former 98L (See below).

Surface Observation/Conditions
The depression is moving over waters near 80-82F degrees and the further north it moves into 80F degrees waters.

Wave heights in the open waters around TD6 will be 10ft above normal.

Another area of low pressure (1008mabr) is located to SW of TD6s main center.

Buoys and Ships
A ship directly south of the depressions center measured a pressure of 1009mbar and an east wind of 20knots.

Forecast
The shear from the trough will relax during the next couple of days, allowing some organization to occur and this could become TS Florence within 48hrs, then when it reaches an Upper Level high, could become a hurricane, in about 96-120hrs.

The depression will continue to move WNW to NW, then move more to the west under the influence of a ridge south of Bermuda. Then comes the tricky part, a trough is now located over the USA. When this troughs moves down, if it is able to catch the system, it will move it more to the north, if it misses it, then the system will continue to move west to west-north-west.

Now, if the trough misses the system, it could still weaken the high, allowing the system to ride up the west side of the ridge and out to sea.

So areas of interest are the Turks and Caicos (5%), the Bahamas (5%), Florida (10%), South/North Carolina (15%), Remainder of the East Coast (20%), Canada (15%) and moving out to sea (20%).

Weather456
all of a sudden, a new look screen
Posted By: nebula420 at 1:43 PM GMT on September 05, 2006.
vortex, take a look at the short wave infrared and tell me there is no center coming together. WHY is NHC the best? PHD: Piled higher and deeper, but you are right about one thing, they don't know what is going on each 6 hours any better than anyone else here.


First of all the NHC is the best and they prove it every single storm. You don't find places like accuweather who ever else tries to contradict them being right.
Second I see the coc being the one the NHC says is the one. I see that center as exposed now. Could more convection fire around it, yes. Could a new center take over, yes. My point is that its a waiting game but maybe I am not as smart as you.
oh 91L is a little stonger as well 25kts from 20kt and the mb is 1008mb from 1009mb from be for
LMAO Seminoles!!!!
new blog up!!!
Vortex, take a chill pill. To say the NHC prove they are the best each and every storm is laughable. I'll mention it again for all those authority lovers out there. They engage in SWAG's (scientific wild ass guesses) and are just as wrong as they are right.
after reading all the info here all i can see is that we might have cat2 or 3 sitting off the east coast of sf . thats not god and if the high build in flo will go the same as andrew and thats west young man . time will time . but will we have enough time thats the question . dont let your guard down . just yet
well no change at 5 am can you believe that they must be sleeping at nhc .