WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression Six forms; Henrietta lashes the Pacific coast of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:57 PM GMT on August 31, 2007

The Hurricane Hunters have reported back from the tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands and found a closed circulation and 35 mph winds, good enough to justify naming this system Tropical Depression Six. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean by Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show a considerable improvement in organization occurred today, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center of circulation, and upper level outflow now visible on both the north and south sides.

Water vapor satellite loops show the presence of a large amount of dry air to the north of TD 6, but the storm has generated enough thunderstorm activity to moisten the surrounding environment, which should speed development. Wind shear is a favorable 10 knots over TD 6, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days over the storm's expected path through the Caribbean, according to the 18Z SHIPS model. As seen in the latest microwave satellite image from 12:49pm EDT (Figure 1), the heaviest thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the system. Trinidad and Tobago will get the heaviest rains from TD 6, although the northern coast of South America plus the island of Grenada could also see some heavy rains.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of TD 6 taken at 12:49pm EDT 8/31/07. The heaviest rain (red colors) is just east of the island of Tobago. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Both the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z SHIPS intensity models forecast that TD 6 will intensify into a hurricane by 72 hours from now, as it tracks through the Central Caribbean. The model consensus has a track just north of the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao), then west-northwestward through the Caribbean. By Monday night, most of the models have TD 6 approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The GFDL is further north, taking TD 6 into Belize on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. The future strength of TD 6 depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If TD 6 does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question. However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging TD 6 to the north coming.

The next Hurricane Hunter mission will be 8am EDT Saturday. The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.

Links to follow today:
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Trinidad Crown Point weather
Piarco, Trinidad weather
Grenada weather

96L
An area of low pressure ("96L") a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts got close to tropical depression status today. However, wind shear from strong upper level westerly winds has almost completely removed all heavy thunderstorm activity from the storm, and 96L has missed its chance to become a tropical depression.

Pacific coast of Mexico at risk from Henriette
Tropical Storm Henriette formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico this morning, and poses a threat to Mexican coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta, as well as the Baja Peninsula. Acapulco radar shows that spiral banding around the center has increased today, and visible satellite loops show a rather disorganized system, with the beginnings of some upper-level outflow to the south. Henriette has brought heavy rains and sustained winds of 25 mph to Acapulco today, but the weather there will improve tonight as the storm tracks west-northwest, parallel to the coast. Wind shear is a rather stiff 20 knots over Henriette today, which should keep any development slow. By tomorrow, wind shear should decrease to 10-15 knots, allowing more rapid strengthening. Residents of Manzanillo should be prepared for tropical storm force winds Saturday evening, and the airport there will probably close for a time late Saturday. Puerto Vallarta is further from Henrietta's projected path and more sheltered, and will probably not get tropical storm force winds. Those planning on being in Baja Monday and Tuesday should keep a close eye on Henriette, as hurricane conditions may arrive late Monday.

Links to watch for Henriette
Acapulco radar
Manzanillo, Mexico observations

My next update will be Saturday by noon EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1969 storm names
Western North Pacific tropical cyclones were named by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The first storm of 1969 was named Phyllis and the final one was named Marie.

Agnes
Bonnie
Carmen
Della
Elaine
Faye
Gloria
Hester
Irma
Judy
Kit
Lola
Mamie
Nina
Ora
Phyllis 1W
Rita 2W
Susan 3W
Tess 4W
Viola 5W
Winnie 6W
Alice 7W
Betty 8W
Cora 9W

Okinawa is in the Pacific, Koritheman and I forgot to call it a typhoon. In the Pacific they rotated a limited number of damsels in distress.
In 1965, they had a super typhoon Cora brush Okinawa and no one died according to Wikpedia. That island must be built for storms but glad I was only there for the lesser known Cora. Unreal.
I think I'll remain Felix according to ye oldetime Pacific system if it materializes tomorrow and if you don't mind. Just a sentimental idea.
1004. LLJ
1969 storm names
Western North Pacific tropical cyclones were named by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The first storm of 1969 was named Phyllis and the final one was named Marie.



Hello? You posted the names starting with Agnes?
I know. They don't use our new system. They just rotate the damsels where they left off the year before. Didn't leave anyone out which is polite!
LLJ: Hello? You posted the names starting with Agnes?
I was taking a partial list of the unused storms that year from Wikpedia. They explain the system. Man, Wikpedia is good.
I think the track will depend very much on how much latitude TD6 can gain in the next 24 hours before the ridge builds in all the way west to Mexico. The ridge begins to breakdown/weaken/pull back in about 4 days. If TD6 is far enough north at that time it will be able to slip into the Gulf. The wonderful model consensus on track that we had initially is falling apart with first NAM and now UKMET diverging sharply to the North. NOGAPS and HWRF aren't out yet.
1008. LLJ
Wikepidea stuff is written by many people that have no clue.
LLJ: I heard that also but someone on here explained that Wikpedia is actually quite good on reference.
Phyllis 1W 100mph
Rita 2W 40mph
Susan 3W 120mph
Tess 4W 80mph
Viola 5W 150mph
Winnie 6W 60mph
Alice 7W 50mph
Betty 8W 80mph
Cora 9W 100mph
Doris 10W 75mph
Elsie 14W 175mph
Flossie 15W 110mph
Grace 16W 70mph
Helen 18W 120mph
Ida 19W 135mph
June 20W 120mph
Kathy 21W 125mph
Lorna 22W 60mph
Marie 23W 60mph
1011. LLJ
If you're looking for the truth...legally. Forget Wikipedia!
hosweather: So if the hwrf develops the system, then it shows it moving into the gulf, it would be similar to before it developed the system.
1013. LLJ
Any little pervert that hangs on sites like this can input on Wikipedia.
How sick is that?
LLJ: Undoubtedly I've not researched Wikpedia on a search but they do explain the Pacific storm system quite well.
1015. LLJ
Who is talking about anything in the Gulf?
Posted By: LLJ at 6:56 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.
Any little pervert that hangs on sites like this can input on Wikipedia.
How sick is that?


Wikipedia always changes it back to the way it originally was unless it has accurate sources and is entirely related to the subject
Wikipedia is a legal loophole!

Get out! It is mostly nonsense and lies!
We got off topic since this all started from the 33mph winds in Barbados and the satellite won't update.
Posted By: cirrocumulus at 6:55 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.
hosweather: So if the hwrf develops the system, then it shows it moving into the gulf, it would be similar to before it developed the system.


If HWRF develops the system and moves it into the Gulf then that supports the notion that TD6 could become a Gulf storm impacting the US. At this time yesterday, there was almost no support for a storm track that could impact the CONUS.
nonsense and lies? I'm working on an entry and it takes a lot of time to make. They won't let you post it witout accurate sources
I'm calling tropical storm Felix, typhoon Faye.
1022. jscs
Go to wikipedia right now and add ANYTHING you want that makes half sense. Make it up. It will be there days from now. Wiki is only a sort-of reference and if you use it in most colleges you fail.
I don't think it's a good idea to start arguing so I'll just stop and we'll leave it at what we personally think about wiki, ok?
You can call anything you want on Wiki! LOL!
TD6 looks like she regained health on recent satellite loops. She will probably be upgraded at 5am eastern to Typhoon Faye(formerly TS Felix according to Wikpedia, but what do they know?).
HWRF is now out and still shows only weak development for TD6 but otherwise supports a more northern track. Not what I would call strong support. We'll know more tomorrow when we see how much latitude TD6 gained overnight.
Typhoon Faye? what are you talking about?
Nada. I was just calling TD6, Typhoon Faye for fun. Have you seen the latest loops on satellite. TD 6 is on the way to tropical storm status and I say it just reached that level.
Grenada seems to be feeling the effects. Does anyone have sustained winds at Grenada? Or does that island not exist since Wikipedia says it does?
Fitow is reintensifying. winds have increased to 85mph and the pressure has dropped to 967mb
My how things change. A few hours ago I would have bet money that TD6 would never affect CONUS. Now anywhere in the Gulf is possible. Just shows how little I know about tropical storms.
Point Salines Airport, Grenada
(TGPY) 12-00N 061-47W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 01, 2007 - 03:00 AM EDTSep 01, 2007 - 02:00 AM CDTSep 01, 2007 - 01:00 AM MDTSep 01, 2007 - 12:00 AM PDTAug 31, 2007 - 11:00 PM ADTAug 31, 2007 - 10:00 PM HDT
2007.09.01 0700 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) gusting to 25 MPH (22 KT)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
The 4 a.m. EST observation on winds at Grenada and the Grenadines should be quite interesting! Notice the observation of cumulonimbus clouds on the 3 a.m. conditions.
Arnos Vale, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
(TVSV) 13-08N 061-12W 13M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 01, 2007 - 03:00 AM EDTSep 01, 2007 - 02:00 AM CDTSep 01, 2007 - 01:00 AM MDTSep 01, 2007 - 12:00 AM PDTAug 31, 2007 - 11:00 PM ADTAug 31, 2007 - 10:00 PM HDT
2007.09.01 0700 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT) gusting to 44 MPH (38 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
appreciate the reports.....are you guys getting blown away....or are you just reporting?
Must be horrible with all those Cumulous clouds!
Current Weather Conditions:
Arnos Vale, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
(TVSV) 13-08N 061-12W 13M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 01, 2007 - 04:00 AM EDTSep 01, 2007 - 03:00 AM CDTSep 01, 2007 - 02:00 AM MDTSep 01, 2007 - 01:00 AM PDTSep 01, 2007 - 12:00 AM ADTAug 31, 2007 - 11:00 PM HDT
2007.09.01 0800 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 44 MPH (38 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
--good post--- i admitted i was wrong right in the blog-- and also about the jamaica eye as well---and im ok with it--THANK GOD! i never said i was a pro to any of these people--was kinda obvious anyways--it was just what i was seeing COULD happen, like U said "OUTSIDE THE BOX" --as weather is weird and i DO NOT want another one here in vero b-or anywhere. Frances, Jeanne, charley and partsand pieces of others that came close were enough-- if i think--you are in florida also---right?--- u know what it did and will keep doing to our damn insurance rates........ i know if some people were egging me on or actually thought there was a possible chance of DEAN doing his abnormal n or nw thingy.......but once he got past 87-90--it was kinda a relief for panhandle to east texas.......
--- i know the sarcasm--i read thru it since day 2 of me being on here but one day ijust had to burst out--not in a mean manner--just so they knew i know what they were talking about so they might wanna "off chat" in another room-------- but i am not afraid to blog no matter how stupid my thoughts are--- i dont have the terminoligy--but im learning slowly, and will continue to lurk once in awhile........-------- they think im mad for a no florida landfall--are they nuts!??? im on my second house here and it is now way more expensive to live here than b4 so----i watch weather curiously--and will post possible---hey can it do this or thats till they ban me..............:) peace--- u can copy and paste this along if u like--- as a matter of fact please do.......... i hope your input back to me is soon....ty gn---------------VB :)
You know even the pros are wrong sometimes and most of the time they are not mature enough to admit it. To learn is to make mistakes. But to be honest is to be mature
Further south of the center, in Grenada, we have higher winds at this hour.

Current Weather Conditions:
Point Salines Airport, Grenada
(TGPY) 12-00N 061-47W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 01, 2007 - 04:00 AM EDTSep 01, 2007 - 03:00 AM CDTSep 01, 2007 - 02:00 AM MDTSep 01, 2007 - 01:00 AM PDTSep 01, 2007 - 12:00 AM ADTAug 31, 2007 - 11:00 PM HDT
2007.09.01 0800 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT) gusting to 40 MPH (35 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Pressure (altimeter) 29.68 in. Hg (1005 hPa)
redrobin....I honestly do not understand your RANT! But I do appreciate you posting your thoughts.
I am in Florida and been through many storms.
It sucks....but it all works out.
MY last post was e-mailed to me by verobeach- Sometimes people can be very ugly without using there heads. You know The things VB was saying was what the pros here in Tx were saying, she really was saying a possiblity as they were. NOT THAT IT WOULD
redrobin....I would not know about that.
At the end of the e-mail she said to post it. So I did-----
Please keep in mind I dont rant nor do I rave. This is a blog- not worth the energy
redrobin.....OK. I think I and others might not understand what the Heck you are trying to say!
If you dont it is ok it does not have anything to do with you. Some of the bloggers can get rough at times. Vero was talking about Dean and I dont remember you on then, so I am sure you dont know about it. BUT the thing is posted and I think moving on is good.
Must live inland from storms....these people freak out easy!
OK redrobin....no trouble.
hipdeep1-----I have had the wonderful luck to have been blessed with 5 hits in my life. It is no fun. But you are right you get through it.
redrobin....time for a nap?
Why would you say that?
Posted By: underthunder at 3:40 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.

redrobin....time for a nap?


Arnt you just a cutie-- reread the posts. I wont bite
Grenada E - Grenville Region.
Light and continous rain winds gusting 40-45 MPH.
grenvillebrezze...Thanks for the report.
grenvillebrezze...If you can...post up a map so all can know where you are.
1055. Fshhead
Good Morning! TD6 certainly has gotten its act together. I would not be suprised if it is already a TS....
The wave in the eastern atlantic has continued to flare up tonight....

NHC 2:05am Discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N31W 9N36W MOVING W AT ABOUT
12 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE WAVE AND
LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850
MB FROM WEST AFRICA OUT TO 40W BETWEEN 5 AND 15N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE LOW CENTER.

1057. RL3AO
297
WTNT21 KNHC 010854
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Fshhead at 8:54 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Good Morning! TD6 certainly has gotten its act together. I would not be suprised if it is already a TS....


dont put y hopes up for hurricnae cat
1059. LLJ
You did something good RL3AO!
Posted By: RL3AO at 8:55 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

297
WTNT21 KNHC 010854
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


that was quick!
dont put y hopes up for hurricnae cat

There's no reason this won't become a hurricane within the next few days. I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. I do agree with anyone though if they said that it won't develop fast today, cause it doesn't look like it. But after that, watch it.
1062. LLJ
Real big surprise!
Posted By: LLJ at 8:56 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

You did something good RL3AO!


yeh thay still not put there discussion up nor there new track map!
1064. LLJ
I'm tired....you guys post up!
1065. Fshhead
Agreed Kori, I do think this will be a hurricane also. One good thing is that it is taking the Dean path & at least those waters got stirred up a little by Dean. Hopefully those slightly cooler temps will keep this one in check!
1066. Fshhead
000
WTNT31 KNHC 010854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2007 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

1067. LLJ
One stupid step at a time Gang. This is not Dean!
It's FELIX!
Any quess when some of the wunderbloggers will begin wishing TD6 Northward ? "Northwishing" usually begins when a "distinct Northern component" is precieved. caused by troughs, and weaknesses in the high, that the NHC didn't consider. These troughs lead the storm directly to NO. or S. Fla. A wobble, or a track heading a few dregrees to the North is generally cause for debate, alarm, and discomfort with the models. The adrenaline never stop flowing here. because doom is just am overlooked trough away. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy this site throughly. For me, constant weather talk, during Hurricane season, is entertaining, educational, and the best divergence. I wouldn't miss the upcomming N track for the world.
Fshhead, they might not. Dean did stir them up, but remember that the TCHP in the West Carribean was on par with 2005 levels. Dean cooled it off yes, but there is still enough TCHP left there for rapid intensification. In the Bay of Campeche, waters are probably a bit too cool for rapid intensification, especially in the southern one, since they weren't as deep there, and Dean stirred them up.
1070. LLJ
It's the ABC storm......again!
1071. Fshhead
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

sunnyandshear: I won't be one of those northcasters. If someone tells me I'm doing it, they are wrong. If models begin to move more north though, and troughs begin to erode the high (unlikely), I will say it. But I don't think the U.S. will be hit just yet.

Now about the wave east of Felix... not so sure.
1073. LLJ
FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.




No, I was not saying this since before 9AM Yesterday morning!

i had a long range forecast it was wrong......... my short range was right !
1075. LLJ
....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.


LMAO!!!!!
TS Felix NHC 5:00AM Discussion....

THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH.
THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.
1077. Fshhead
Well it appears the high is going to help us in Fla again.... 2 times in a row, I hope our luck does not run out
500

if only erin did what it did in 1995 but didnt make landfall
1079. LLJ
I love Cyclogenesis! It's the best part!
1080. LLJ
we look good Fish!
Posted By: LLJ at 9:08 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

I love Cyclogenesis! It's the best part!



how long till the next 1?
1082. LLJ
There is no next one my friend!
As i noted on the blog earlier yesterday afternoon there is really no reason for the NHC to shift its track to the north as the genreal thinking is building high-pressure will likely keep felix on a due west path through the caribbean.Most likely even a tad futher south then deans.This system at the present time continues to be no threat to the united states.Adrian
Posted By: LLJ at 9:11 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

There is no next one my friend!


as in how long till the next hell hole in a cloud forms?
1085. Fshhead
LLJ, I take it by the comment your in Fla also.
Man just keep those fingers crossed thats for sure. I dont have to remind you what that high normally does for us here with hurricanes!
1086. LLJ
Good grief! I've been waiting for Felix for almost 12 hours!
There is no next one my friend!

LOL! No offense, but we're going to get more storms. I don't know why you have such optimism, but this season is far from over, man.

I'm saying this in a respectable way, of course, and mean nothing bad by it.
1088. LLJ
as in how long till the next hell hole in a cloud forms?


Well.....you tell me!
Posted By: LLJ at 9:15 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

as in how long till the next hell hole in a cloud forms?


Well.....you tell me!

ive only been here for a few months.... since t.s barry died!
1090. LLJ
I make no storm predictions for any season....ever. But I will work your ass off regarding track...and this FELIX is on Guidance right now!
1091. Fshhead
Mmmmmm LLJ, I will tell you this for sure. Felix will NOT be the last storm. We still got Sept-Oct to go, then if everything is calm for sure its over.....
1092. LLJ
I am in South Florida.
2007 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST (what is that doing there?)
06L.NONAME

East Pacific
11E.HENRIETTE
10E.GIL


just found this on the nrl site
1094. LLJ
Felix probably will not be Felix for too long.
Posted By: LLJ at 9:20 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Felix probably will not be Felix for too long.


its got about 7 days
1096. LLJ
Yeah, the TPC is really busy these hours!
LLJ not now

im only a young kid
1099. LLJ
It happens man!
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA42 0306A CYCLONE
C. 01/2000Z
D. 13.0N 67.5W
E. 01/2100Z TO 02/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



the same plane that got whiped to bits in hugo!
1101. LLJ
So, who has big kahonies and feels like arguing with me regarding track??
Wonder what the odds of it going into Belize then out into the Gulf Of Mexico and turn North into Texas or any states in the gulf coast?

Just a far out thought?
1103. LLJ
Did they change the POD?
1104. LLJ
Be back....then we can argue the POD!
hello?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010929

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON

RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FELIX...CENTERED NEAR GRENADA IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO

HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO

HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$


FORECASTER KNABB
1109. LLJ
Hamster....get that off please!
1110. LLJ
FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 01/0930Z D. 13.5N 62.0W
E. 01/1030Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



That's a 5:30 flight...like right now!
1111. Fshhead
Hmmm see LLJ you take your guard down for one sec. & there it is. Look east of Felix, that wave is flaring & the latitude is higher. That one could come to our neck of the woods. Not saying it will hit us BUT it will be coming in our direction
llj...you must not be married...or you would know you dont need kahonies to argue....
1113. LLJ
Someone please remove the stretch on the blog.....Hamster!
1114. LLJ
I can't work RECON with this stupid stretch!!
Lose the stretch please!
1117. LLJ
Thank you.
ok first off, it looks like the models are starting a northerly trend towards the end of the run. I have a bad feeling that this trend may continue.
1119. LLJ
How far will that continue?
1120. LLJ
Sounds like someone involved with the Gulf!
In three or four days....maybe then start thinking about this!
All I know is that I thank you guys for this blog. I think someone tried to break in our house tonight at 3:15 a.m. and this blog had kept me interested in what is now Felix. I had the police come out and look around.
1122. LLJ
cirrocumulus....We hope everything is alright for you and your family!
1123. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 10:11Z
Date: September 1, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 6 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
10:02:00 17.63N 64.67W 829.4 mb 1,761 m 1016.5 mb From 67 (ENE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
10:02:30 17.62N 64.63W 803.6 mb 2,031 m 1016.4 mb From 68 (ENE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
10:03:00 17.60N 64.62W 779.4 mb 2,290 m 1016.5 mb From 71 (ENE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
10:03:30 17.58N 64.58W 760.5 mb 2,495 m 1016.5 mb From 63 (ENE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
10:04:00 17.55N 64.57W 740.8 mb 2,717 m 1017.1 mb From 72 (ENE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
10:04:30 17.53N 64.53W 713.1 mb 3,035 m 1017.9 mb From 86 (E) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
10:05:00 17.52N 64.50W 688.7 mb 3,326 m 1017.7 mb From 81 (E) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
10:05:30 17.50N 64.48W 670.6 mb 3,548 m 1016.9 mb From 95 (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
10:06:00 17.48N 64.45W 654.6 mb 3,749 m 1016.4 mb From 99 (E) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
10:06:30 17.47N 64.43W 638.7 mb 3,952 m 1015.2 mb From 99 (E) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
10:07:00 17.45N 64.40W 623.4 mb 4,152 m 1015.0 mb From 105 (ESE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
10:07:30 17.43N 64.37W 608.9 mb 4,343 m 1015.4 mb From 111 (ESE) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
10:08:00 17.40N 64.35W 595.0 mb 4,502 m 1011.8 mb From 109 (ESE) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
10:08:30 17.38N 64.32W 581.4 mb 4,685 m 1011.1 mb From 114 (ESE) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
10:09:00 17.37N 64.30W 569.1 mb 4,861 m 1011.8 mb From 115 (ESE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
10:09:30 17.35N 64.27W 557.1 mb 5,045 m 1010.8 mb From 110 (ESE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
10:10:00 17.33N 64.23W 545.2 mb 5,218 m - From 105 (ESE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
10:10:30 17.30N 64.22W 533.8 mb 5,388 m - From 102 (ESE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
10:11:00 17.28N 64.18W 522.3 mb 5,561 m - From 103 (ESE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
10:11:30 17.27N 64.17W 511.2 mb 5,731 m - From 99 (E) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
At 10:02:00Z (first observation), the observation was 106 miles (171 km) to the ESE (121) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 10:11:30Z (last observation), the observation was 147 miles (237 km) to the ESE (122) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Underthunder posted llj...you must not be married...or you would know you dont need kahonies to argue....

That is funny, and so true.
cirrocumulus, good to hear you deterred the would be intruder.

It really ... me of that some individuals have the faculties to prwol around at night, thus have the faculties to work like the rest of us, but choose instead to terrorise us.

1126. LLJ
Yeah, real funny! You don't know my women!
38 W 15 N looks like going high up on the US East Coast or, (dont much like these words, but) a fish storm?

Or are the steering current such that it may keep West and threaten Bahams and then Florida?
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.


1129. LLJ
At 10:21:30Z (last observation), the observation was 186 miles (300 km) to the SE (135) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).


They are still at flight level...not there yet.
1130. LLJ
All I know is none of you Whimps were willing to argue withe me...LMAO!!
Thanks for the help LLJ and bajelayman2. It really bugs me too bajelayman2! It looks like Tropical Storm Felix is about to come on the next visible image with daylight. I'm glad for daylight too after that rude knock on the door at 3:15 a.m.
will have 98L from the cv wave some time today if you have not yet seen my post
1133. LLJ
At 10:31:30Z (last observation), the observation was 234 miles (377 km) between the SE and SSE (146) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).



Still at flight level.
1134. LLJ
Don't know Taz. Working Felix right now.
Fekix really looking good now.
1136. dklsf
...All I know is none of you Whimps were willing to argue withe me...

LLJ, I'll argue with you. I think the track is going to go west right through the Caribbean and hit Central America or the Yucatan. Prove me wrong, tough guy! ;-)
1137. LLJ
RECON is starting their descent.....
1138. LLJ
dklsf...LOL! That's no argument for me man. I'll slip you even better and lay a slam on Nicaragua! Woooooo!
Now people are paying attention to the insignificant 38w wave that I was warning people about. I think that this one has a chance to develop and if it does develop it is in a more dangerous position to affect the northeaster Caribbean and the US. Remember Jeanne 2004 insignificant until it reached the northeastern Caribbean. This year conditions appear to be better for development after the waves crosses 50w, look at Dean and now at Felix. So at this time of the season we have to pay attention to any LLC even if at the moment it has no TS Activity.
1140. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 10:51Z
Date: September 1, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 6 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
10:42:00 14.70N 64.13W 569.7 mb 4,859 m 1011.3 mb From 62 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
10:42:30 14.67N 64.13W 590.0 mb 4,563 m 1010.5 mb From 83 (E) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
10:43:00 14.62N 64.13W 611.2 mb 4,303 m 1013.8 mb From 87 (E) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
10:43:30 14.58N 64.13W 632.2 mb 4,027 m 1015.3 mb From 81 (E) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
10:44:00 14.55N 64.13W 646.7 mb 3,839 m 1015.3 mb From 73 (ENE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
10:44:30 14.52N 64.13W 658.9 mb 3,686 m 1016.1 mb From 65 (ENE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
10:45:00 14.48N 64.13W 678.3 mb 3,445 m 1015.5 mb From 62 (ENE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
10:45:30 14.45N 64.15W 698.5 mb 3,201 m 1015.3 mb From 60 (ENE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
10:46:00 14.43N 64.15W 718.5 mb 2,960 m 1014.2 mb From 57 (ENE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) - -
10:46:30 14.40N 64.15W 738.7 mb 2,724 m 1013.5 mb From 57 (ENE) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
10:47:00 14.37N 64.15W 759.2 mb 2,493 m 1013.3 mb From 58 (ENE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) - -
10:47:30 14.33N 64.15W 779.9 mb 2,269 m 1014.1 mb From 62 (ENE) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) - -
10:48:00 14.30N 64.15W 800.5 mb 2,047 m 1014.1 mb From 67 (ENE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) - -
10:48:30 14.27N 64.15W 801.9 mb 2,029 m 1013.6 mb From 67 (ENE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) - -
10:49:00 14.25N 64.15W 783.0 mb 2,235 m 1014.1 mb From 67 (ENE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
10:49:30 14.23N 64.12W 754.1 mb 2,551 m 1013.7 mb From 67 (ENE) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) - -
10:50:00 14.27N 64.12W 725.8 mb 2,869 m 1012.7 mb From 68 (ENE) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) - -
10:50:30 14.28N 64.12W 706.9 mb 3,090 m 1013.0 mb From 67 (ENE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) - -
10:51:00 14.32N 64.13W 698.1 mb 3,195 m 1013.1 mb From 65 (ENE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
10:51:30 14.35N 64.13W 685.2 mb 3,357 m 1014.3 mb From 66 (ENE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
At 10:42:00Z (first observation), the observation was 287 miles (462 km) to the SSE (154) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 10:51:30Z (last observation), the observation was 309 miles (497 km) to the SSE (155) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

1141. guygee
Dawn on Felix...

Dawn on Felix
1142. LLJ
The Boys must have had a large bump......that last report was bumpy regarding the altitude.
1143. LLJ
That's nice guygee!
1144. LLJ
The Fly Boys may have to fly a little higher this morning....Felix is a strong Boy!
1145. guygee
LLJ - Great to watch the details come out of the shadows at sunrise. Good morning, and thanks for the recon.
1146. LLJ
Yeah, guygee....here's the current position...still at flight level.



At 11:01:30Z (last observation), the observation was 268 miles (431 km) to the SSE (152) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
1147. LLJ
I had to save that Sat shot man. That's a killer! Thanks.
1148. LLJ
At 11:11:30Z (last observation), the observation was 214 miles (344 km) to the SSE (148) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
1149. LLJ
The boys seem to be in some turbulence......We may not get as low a level RECON as we want.
1150. guygee
After listening to LoveFM radio from Belize all through the night during Dean, I really hate to see the NHC forecast track.

The Belize Telemedia Service Restoration Status page shows that a good deal of the infrastructure in northern Belize has still not been repaired since Dean's impact.
Good morning folks. Might have another invest out there today. A lot of people might forget Felix if a G storm is heading towards them. I think you will see a major hurricane with the G one.
1152. LLJ
Belize is a horrid low area up against the sea.
I'm not thinking this storm for them this time. I'm working Felix further south. Which is no better....Is there ever a better?
1153. LLJ
Morning leftovers.
1154. LLJ
Dropping to operational level now:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 11:21Z
Date: September 1, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 6 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:12:00 15.83N 64.35W 597.4 mb 4,466 m 1012.5 mb From 109 (ESE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
11:12:30 15.88N 64.35W 604.2 mb 4,405 m 1016.3 mb From 109 (ESE) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
11:13:00 15.93N 64.37W 613.8 mb 4,276 m 1017.0 mb From 110 (ESE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
11:13:30 15.97N 64.37W 622.8 mb 4,157 m 1016.8 mb From 113 (ESE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
11:14:00 16.02N 64.38W 631.4 mb 4,045 m 1016.2 mb From 112 (ESE) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
11:14:30 16.05N 64.38W 640.2 mb 3,933 m 1016.3 mb From 107 (ESE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
11:15:00 16.10N 64.40W 648.0 mb 3,833 m 1016.7 mb From 98 (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
11:15:30 16.13N 64.40W 655.1 mb 3,743 m 1017.4 mb From 94 (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
11:16:00 16.18N 64.42W 662.8 mb 3,647 m 1017.7 mb From 92 (E) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
11:16:30 16.22N 64.42W 670.6 mb 3,550 m 1017.9 mb From 84 (E) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
11:17:00 16.25N 64.42W 678.9 mb 3,449 m 1017.9 mb From 74 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
11:17:30 16.30N 64.43W 686.5 mb 3,357 m 1018.1 mb From 66 (ENE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
11:18:00 16.33N 64.43W 695.1 mb 3,254 m 1018.6 mb From 82 (E) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
11:18:30 16.38N 64.45W 703.6 mb 3,152 m 1017.9 mb From 87 (E) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
11:19:00 16.42N 64.45W 712.7 mb 3,042 m 1017.7 mb From 98 (E) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
11:19:30 16.45N 64.47W 721.3 mb 2,940 m 1017.1 mb From 102 (ESE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
11:20:00 16.50N 64.47W 729.0 mb 2,852 m 1017.6 mb From 100 (E) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:20:30 16.53N 64.48W 736.8 mb 2,764 m 1017.3 mb From 98 (E) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:21:00 16.58N 64.48W 746.0 mb 2,660 m 1017.2 mb From 94 (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
11:21:30 16.62N 64.48W 756.2 mb 2,546 m 1016.8 mb From 88 (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
At 11:12:00Z (first observation), the observation was 211 miles (340 km) to the SSE (148) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 11:21:30Z (last observation), the observation was 162 miles (261 km) to the SE (140) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

LLJ is giving us his A game this morning. Once the press finds out where the soon to be G storm is heading the press will dump Felix like he is the tramp in "Lady and the Tramp"
1156. LLJ
Gotta work the most developed system Baby! That's the way of the weather world!
1157. SLU
Looks like we are going to have another invest today. The wave at 13n 37w has suddenly blown up overnight and it already has a confirmed closed low level circulation. There's less dry air around it than Felix when it was in that region. Furthermore, the steering pattern this year is more like 2004 and 2005 than 2006 and that's bad news.
1158. LLJ
You are called leftovers....so start dragging them in! Maybe we'll talk about em!
1159. LLJ
SLU is so on that one. Stay on it.
1160. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 11:31Z
Date: September 1, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 6 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:22:00 16.65N 64.50W 766.6 mb 2,431 m 1016.4 mb From 83 (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
11:22:30 16.70N 64.50W 771.6 mb 2,375 m 1016.0 mb From 83 (E) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:23:00 16.73N 64.52W 777.1 mb 2,319 m 1016.4 mb From 80 (E) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:23:30 16.77N 64.52W 782.2 mb 2,265 m 1016.5 mb From 77 (ENE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:24:00 16.80N 64.53W 783.8 mb 2,246 m 1016.1 mb From 75 (ENE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:24:30 16.83N 64.53W 783.7 mb 2,247 m 1016.1 mb From 73 (ENE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:25:00 16.87N 64.53W 783.5 mb 2,249 m 1016.0 mb From 73 (ENE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
11:25:30 16.90N 64.55W 783.6 mb 2,249 m 1016.2 mb From 75 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:26:00 16.95N 64.55W 783.6 mb 2,250 m 1016.3 mb From 74 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:26:30 16.98N 64.57W 783.5 mb 2,251 m 1016.3 mb From 73 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:27:00 17.02N 64.57W 783.5 mb 2,252 m 1016.4 mb From 71 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:27:30 17.05N 64.57W 783.5 mb 2,252 m 1016.4 mb From 74 (ENE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
11:28:00 17.08N 64.58W 783.3 mb 2,254 m 1016.4 mb From 73 (ENE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
11:28:30 17.12N 64.58W 783.6 mb 2,252 m 1016.7 mb From 70 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:29:00 17.15N 64.60W 783.8 mb 2,250 m 1016.5 mb From 70 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:29:30 17.18N 64.60W 783.8 mb 2,249 m 1016.4 mb From 68 (ENE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:30:00 17.22N 64.60W 783.7 mb 2,250 m 1016.6 mb From 68 (ENE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:30:30 17.25N 64.62W 783.8 mb 2,248 m 1016.3 mb From 71 (ENE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
11:31:00 17.28N 64.62W 786.6 mb 2,218 m 1016.7 mb From 67 (ENE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
11:31:30 17.32N 64.62W 798.5 mb 2,093 m 1016.9 mb From 65 (ENE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
At 11:22:00Z (first observation), the observation was 159 miles (257 km) to the SE (140) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 11:31:30Z (last observation), the observation was 121 miles (195 km) to the SE (129) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Good Morning everybody. Felix is looking real healthy today (but then again if it didn't it wouldn't be a named storm now would it?).

I see the GFS still forecasts a large system to develop. That wave that it develops should emerge in about 72 hours and that will be interesting to watch.

HWRF dosn't do anything with this but weaken it. GFDL seems to have a good handle on this system in terms of track and intensity (although I would think a track a bit farther to the south would be better):

gfdl
Folks in the 90s West Palm Beach Lowes we argued why this and that storm would not recurve. Pretty much every storm except a A storm I remember did turn. Wow things have changed. Hopefully slu the next one will be north of you.
Am I right that they have found 38 knt wind on the last page


Thank you LLJ for the RECON Data
1164. LLJ
Looks to me that RECON is being required to stay above 5,000 feet. That is unusual for a weak TS!
Imagine that!
1165. LLJ
TheStormWillSurvive....Thank you for the thank you. You're like the first person that ever said thanks.
1166. guygee
Posted By: LLJ at 11:20 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.
"Belize is a horrid low area up against the sea. I'm not thinking this storm for them this time. I'm working Felix further south. Which is no better....Is there ever a better?"

LLJ - I was just thinking along the same lines...will Felix even make the Gulf of Honduras? Honduras and Nicaragua border area has much higher terrain, which makes it worse for #1 danger from hurricanes...inland flooding.

For my part, still too early to speculate further...
Gulf of Honduras
Full Resolution Map from Wikipedia (3500 2780 pixel, file size: 2.27 MB, MIME type: image/jpeg)
Posted By: LLJ at 11:40 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

TheStormWillSurvive....Thank you for the thank you. You're like the first person that ever said thanks.


someone said thanks yesturday but I do not think you were on or you did not read all the comments but that is OK

Your Welcome
Be nice to LLJ day. Second it.
1169. LLJ
guygee....that is the area. And I hate it!
1170. LLJ
LOL!!
we should have 98L soon with that central atlantic wave. it has very good conditions with less dry air than felix had
Do you have any new RECON for us
I don't like the shift of the model runs on Felix North hope they don't persist run to to run.
Morning everybody,

Some of us have been watching that little 38 / 15 wave since it came off the coast with some "bad" feelings. I'm not surprised to see it looking healthy this morning. This is why I kept pointing out the weakness in the ridge which has been suggested by various models and forecasts to be in place off the east US coast early to mid next week.

Accuweather:

Finally, we are watching a tropical wave along 33 west, mostly south of 20 north, that is moving west at less than 5 degrees longitude per day. A large low pressure area is moving with this tropical wave near 14.5 north and 31.0 west. Satellite images show thunderstorms forming near this low pressure area. However, we see no important organization just yet. Further development of this system will be slow due to dry air to the north. This dry, dusty air should thin out as the system moves west, perhaps allowing evolution into an organized tropical system later this weekend or early next week.


it is more organized then Felix was in that area so what is with this no organization
1176. LLJ
There's an uplink problem....hang on.
Posted By: LLJ at 11:51 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

There's an uplink problem....hang on.


OK that is fine I want to see if they find any more TS Force Winds
1178. LLJ
The RECON COMLINK is whacked right now!
This is also the time of year when we start to watch 2, 3, or occasionally 4 systems in the basin at the same time. Within 48 hrs it's entirely possible that we will be watching, Felix, Gabrielle, and TD 8 all at the same time. (I'm not saying it WILL happen, mind you.)
1180. LLJ
Say hello to big brother!

When they don't want you to know.....you won't know!
1181. LLJ
RECON is Blanked!
Hey Bahahurican....

This wave in the central atlantic could be one that makes things very interesting for us along the eastcoast.Iam expect within the next day or two an invest declared which would be 98L.Adrian
well I knew felix would have 45-50mph winds this morning by 11am and it appears to have 45mph already! lol
1184. LLJ
All the little people with web-sites. LOL!
Where are their links when RECON slams us!
1185. LLJ
Have fun with the little peeps y'all!
I noticed the ADT says 0.7T/6hr, does that mean the T number is increasing by 0.7 every 6 hrs?
I also noticed convection has flared nicely for that wave we have been watching that is in the catl
06z HWRF takes Felix into the northern Yucatan as a tropical storm, moving northwest towards eastern Texas.
8:05-NHC discussion....Wave in the eastern atlantic

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N32W 8N37W MOVING W AT ABOUT 12
KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE AND LOW
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS
PRESENT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
FROM WEST AFRICA OUT TO 40W BETWEEN 5 AND 15N. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-39W.
Posted By: extreme236 at 12:08 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

I noticed the ADT says 0.7T/6hr, does that mean the T number is increasing by 0.7 every 6 hrs?


yes
1191. 606
Is there anyone from Grenada who can give us a report as Felix crosses the island. We in St Lucia want to have an idea of what is happening over there.
the HWRF must be seeing something unfavorable happen with Felix, as conditions are expected to be favorable, I dont understand why it would only make it a TS
1193. guygee
Is this relevant?

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 07-08 CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
817 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

[...]
"ITEM F IN THE RECONNAISSANCE VORTEX DATA MESSAGE /VDM/ PRODUCT IS THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED ON THE INBOUND LEG PRIOR TO THE STORM CENTER FIX. CURRENTLY IF A HIGHER WIND IS OBSERVED ON THE OUTBOUND LEG IT IS REPORTED IN ITEM P ON THE SUBSEQUENT VORTEX MESSAGE...USUALLY 2 HOURS LATER. IN ADDITION WIND MAXIMA OBSERVED AFTER THE FINAL FIX OF A MISSION ARE NOT TRANSMITTED THROUGH A SUBSEQUENT VDM."
[...]

maybe somebody could "decode" this paragraph for everyone :-)
it is c2news birthday today look at his blog
in otherwords lets say they we coming into the storm from the West then any wind that they find on the West side will be put in item F if it is the highest in the entire storm however if the wind is the highest on the East side (outbound) then the winds will be put in item P however since they usually issue a DVM right away then the information could be delayed up to 2 hours if they find winds higher on the outbound side in order to get the correct information

hopefully that made scense
TS Felix..Stregthening indeed



BTW..Good Morning
the intensity of felix is up 3.0
01/1145 UTC 12.3N 62.5W T3.0/3.0 FELIX

That means 52 mph winds and 1000 mb
yep Felix strenghtening pretty good. Winds of 45mph pressure of 1004mb. It will be interesting to see what recon finds
1199. guygee
StormWillSurvive - Thank you on behalf of "All the little people with web-sites." :-)
well if dvorak is 3.0, then maybe Felix actually has 50mph so lets see if recon finds that
Posted By: guygee at 12:28 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

StormWillSurvive - Thank you on behalf of "All the little people with web-sites." :-)

your welcome
lol Felix and Henriette might be like brother and sister. They both have the same dvorak lol and perhaps the same wind speeds if recon finds 50mph winds
My forecast track:

1204. CJ5
Morning All. Good morn'in Felix. Looks ok this am. Looks like another Yucatan hit, too. I am in agreement with the models. I would not expect Felix to get to 20N. The potential for a NW turn is within the next 36 hours. If not I beleive a W track is the deal.

The steering and potential for the other wave will be much more difficult to forecast. Though on the surface it smells fishy lol
1205. CJ5
Posted By: eaglesrock at 12:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
My forecast track:


That is not my opinion but it is plausible.
1206. IKE
From the Mobile,Al extended discussion...

" Toward the end of
week...an approaching middle/upper level trough approaching from the west
will once again increase rain chances. Temperatures at or maybe just above
normal."



From the Houston,TX. extended...

"The 500 mb trough is forecast to get caught up in the westerlies
and push east across the area Wednesday/Thursday. Could see the
most favorable lift and low level convergence this period. Have
kept probability of precipitation at 40 percent...but wouldn't be surprised if we have to
raise them in time. Trough shifts east of the area by Friday...and
have kept optimistic forecast of 30 probability of precipitation."



From the New Orleans extended...

"Long term...
for Monday through Friday...500 mb high will slowly breakdown and the
cyclonic curvature over Texas will lift north over the Central
Plains Monday through Wednesday pulling the deeper moisture toward
Texas and Oklahoma and bringing our rain chances back to norms and
slightly below norms through next week. 500 mb flow will become zonal
bringing a system to the forecast area next Friday."



Might be why some of these models are trending north.
1207. guygee
More than one strong storm usually complicates the forecast, not so much due to Fujiwara dance but more often due to leading storm's tendency to create a trailing weakness/trough upon recurvature that then may propagate with the westerlies.
We now have 98L!
Cant wait to see the new models.
Posted By: extreme236 at 12:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
We now have 98L!


No way, lol more tracking ahead!
and also accuweather changed their satillite on their site, looks pretty cool lol. But yes, we have 98L lol
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2007&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=98L.INVEST&PROD=t rack_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/m icrovap/dmsp
98L
1213. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:40 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
We now have 98L!


At 13.5N, 36W.
well if that is where the estimated center is, that means all the convection is to the west due to the easterly shear. although if you notice, the convection is trying to form over the center
1217. IKE
The tropical Atlantic is really starting to fire up...right at the peak.
1218. 606
Floridians I don't think you will get any storm soon.It looks like all of them are staying south. The windward islands shoud be more concerned. Look at the movement of the wave in the mid atlantic.
STORM 98L. INVEST

98l
Could someone provide an update. How many systems are out there and what are the possible landfall locations. Tried to catch up but I was getting dizzy. Felix or Henrietta?

Thank you.
twc says 98L might become a TD in 24-48hrs
The models did not pick up this uptick in hurricane activity.
im back............

some stupid idiot put a password on the internet

whats go on since ive been away?
Posted By: hurricanehamster at 12:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

im back............

some stupid idiot put a password on the internet

whats go on since ive been away?


98L is what is going on. It may develop within a couple days
it looks like there is some banding going on with 98L if the center can get more convection over it or if the center can reform under the convection, then a TD will occur
1226. CJ5
98L should steer west but I think this one may actually find the NW component everyone has been looking for all season lol
The NHC seems to be dissing the computer models which show Felix bending more WNW through the upper Yucatan Penninsula. Their forcast path is pretty much lock-step with the two southern tracks.

Unlike Dean a few weeks ago which made 2nd landfall in Southern Mexico, it appears that the straight line across the Carribean may not translate into the GOM. I see that one of the southern tracks has Felix "bending it like Beckham". Could a 2nd landfall in Texas be in the cards?

What a about that wave halfway between the Carribean & Africa. Rewind 48 hours & it looks better now compared to what Felix looked like then. Conditions look more favorable as well with no dry air around it like what 94L (Felix) had to deal with for a good 3-4 days.

An intersting Labor Day weekend indeed.
Could someone provide an update. How many systems are out there and what are the possible landfall locations. Tried to catch up but I was getting dizzy. Felix or Henrietta?

Thank you.


There are currently two systems; Tropical Storm Felix that just passed the Windwards and 98L Invest which was declared not too long ago. It's still too early to tell where Felix will make landfall but Belize is currently in the crosshairs. The Yucatan could also be hit. As for 98L, you can see how spread out the BAM models are from Taz's picture above; so I think there won't be much of an idea of exactly where this will go other than the Lesser Antilles.
Butterfly island! Not again.
serious?
also, TWC says there is a weak low pressure center off the texas coast that they are watching closely
Posted By: hurricanehamster at 12:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

serious?


Yes im serious lol. Someone lit the match on the tropics
1234. Drakoen
I see we have 98L. I knew it when i saw it Last night
The most recent QuickSCAT pass missed 98L; this is the one from yesterday:

qscat
1236. IKE
Posted By: GainesvilleGator at 7:54 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
The NHC seems to be dissing the computer models which show Felix bending more WNW through the upper Yucatan Penninsula. Their forcast path is pretty much lock-step with the two southern tracks.


I noticed that...I was surprised with their track for Felix and the discussion about a southern track.
models have picked on a possible trough picking up Felix by mid-end of next week....

UH OH!!!!.... TX/LA/MS/AL....

WATCH OUT
well 98L definatly has a circulation, as it as pretty much had for a while. Now, we have to see if the current trend of that convection building over the center occurs and we will have a TD
1239. CJ5
Posted By: nannadjust at 12:51 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
Could someone provide an update. How many systems are out there and what are the possible landfall locations. Tried to catch up but I was getting dizzy. Felix or Henrietta?

Thank you.


We are watching TSFelix which is around 12/55 and moving W to WNW. As far as US landfall its way to early to tell but may only affect TX at most. 98L is new is at around 14/35, seems to be moving W and landfall forecasts are way to early to predict.
1240. guygee
Since the Atlantic is "turned on" now, any other contenders out there? Southern end of CATL trough? Convection off of FL-GA coast?
Morning all ☺

Seems the GFDL have flip flopped forecast track the past two runs. I see we also have 98l also. Talk about things picking up quickly...
1242. Drakoen
98L still has a circulation although its a bit elongated. Still half a system, i guess they all start out like that lol. Dean and Felix.
Drak earlier Adrian said he was concerned about the east coast with 98l. It seems everything is staying south.
Link

Hold on to your hat!
Wow! I just noticed how close the two systems were. From the early models, it looks like 98L might be a threat to the islands. Woudn't that be something; to be hit by a Tropical Storm then get hit by another only a few days after (assuming this even develops)? The Lesser Antilles are really getting hit this year.
watch that low pressure off the texas coast, I believe conditions are favorable. shear map shows 5-10kt shear over it
1247. Drakoen
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 12:58 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Drak earlier Adrian said he was concerned about the east coast with 98l. It seems everything is staying south.


I'm am concerned with the east coast and 98L as well. Its latitude is very dangerous. Have to watch it.


the nhc are having a bad time ......... too much going on

if gil starts to get stronger

and felix is still here and hermionie

this will be 1 of the most active months on record in the world!
what time is it

my clock has disappered from view
1250. IKE
Posted By: pmchugh7 at 8:00 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
Link

Hold on to your hat!


Good lord...look whats coming off of Africa soon! Jeez.
1251. CJ5
Posted By: louisianaweatherguy at 12:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
models have picked on a possible trough picking up Felix by mid-end of next week....

UH OH!!!!.... TX/LA/MS/AL....

WATCH OUT


If it was picked up by the mid of next week it would have to be a hella trough to swing it to AL/MS/LA. I doubt it.
models have picked on a possible trough picking up Felix by mid-end of next week....

UH OH!!!!.... TX/LA/MS/AL....

Unlikely Lousiana weather guy
dont really have to worry about the convection off the east coast now as conditions arent favorable. keep an eye on it though
Felix the cat now has a ball to play with 98L
WOW didn't realize 98L had such a good circulation with it... Looks like this one might take off by today or tommorrow...

Here comes Gabrielle...
what time is it

my clock has disappered from view


9:02 AM Eastern at the time of this post.
Drak but its low like the others what would make it not follow the same path.
1258. guygee
BTW, just noticed that Tropical RAMSDIS Online has a cool new look.

Well I'm off to see the Wizard or sumptin', bbl.
1259. Drakoen
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 1:03 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Drak but its low like the others what would make it not follow the same path.


The circulation is at near 15N already. Too early to tell where this thing is gonna end up.
Wow! RAMSDIS got a new look. The loops are now java applets (like the SSD's).

cir
If it was picked up by the mid of next week it would have to be a hella trough to swing it to AL/MS/LA. I doubt it.

True, True... but that's 5 days out... and the cone of error does extend towards Cuba even now... Felix could ride closer to Jamaica and then start his swing up... Definately NOT wishcasting... just looking at possibilities and seeing if I need to be getting my junk together here in Louisiana...
Could be another caribbean system with high right over it but its way to early to know.
its definatly way too early to speculate where 98L may go. It just formed so give it time to see if it develops into a depression first, which apperas quite possible
I noticed that and I am not happy I want non java loops
My eyes are no 98L incase that little bugger tries something
1266. Drakoen
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:06 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Could be another caribbean system with high right over it but its way to early to know.


Yea. If it gets more organized we will have a better idea.
2 other areas that I have questions

1. right off the GA coast

2. 65W 30 N
1268. CJ5
I agree Drak, many more dynamics in play with 98l. Higher lat could allow to get caught up in some of these recent northerly steering patterns.

It has a nice appearance and if it were to blow up like Dean did it could be a dangerous storm.
if we notice the convection really start to gather around that low pressure then we should have a TD
Hey 23 what do you think of the current track of felix
With high pressure in the region it will protect florida and if this pattern holds this will be another system for central america.
image

that is the low pressure off the texas coast there.
there is a whole sfc trough extending off the east coast to bermuda and all across the gulf coast, so watch out for potential low pressure that may spin up
Posted By: Miamiweather at 1:09 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Hey 23 what do you think of the current track of felix

Looks better organized but at the same time its no threat to us in florida.
ty 23
Look at the weak low pressure moving north just offshore Nicaraqua
1277. Drakoen
Somewhat impressive. Still half-a-system though. Gonna be fighting that easterly shear.
Even now the NHC track is south of almost every computer model... and the more the trough swinging down becomes more evident, the more the models will agree with the north shift (of course some will go overboard and curve it towards the FL panhandle, too)

Watch the models this afternoon... I bet the NHC track shifts northward closer to Cozumel today and then closer to the Yucatan Channel by Sunday...
As far as 98L the BAMS right now are garbage and i would wait for the globals.
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Somewhat impressive. Still half-a-system though. Gonna be fighting that easterly shear.


Yep, that is why the bulk of the convection is to the center's west, but some is trying to form over the center. The shear isnt terribly strong, so it shouldnt stop development all together
Interesting how 98l appeared from nowhere!
Looks like it's on a mission avoiding dry air and how Felix is paving the way...Link
Could someone please post a link that shows models in line form. I must be way to dumb to interpret any of these pretty, but confusing pictures. Thanks again.
By: louisianaweatherguy at 6:13 AM PDT on September 01, 2007.

Even now the NHC track is south of almost every computer model... and the more the trough swinging down becomes more evident, the more the models will agree with the north shift (of course some will go overboard and curve it towards the FL panhandle, too)

Watch the models this afternoon... I bet the NHC track shifts northward closer to Cozumel today and then closer to the Yucatan Channel by Sunday...

i 2nd that i been watching how the mode runs been moveing N 7 out of 4 mode runs had move N but olny 4 stayed to the S + the nhc track i think will see the nhc track more N
1284. SLU
Can someone tell me whats wrong with the RECON? The plane was headed into FELIX but then it suddenly turned back.
1285. Drakoen
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 1:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Somewhat impressive. Still half-a-system though. Gonna be fighting that easterly shear.

Yep, that is why the bulk of the convection is to the center's west, but some is trying to form over the center. The shear isnt terribly strong, so it shouldnt stop development all together


right. Gradual development.
Does it seem to everyone that 98L could possibly head towards the east coast of the US, or is it just my overactive immagination???
Thanks for the Ramsdis heads up y'all ☺

It now has made the Quick Links page.

Although I really wish I could get some CIRA personnel access. Those meta sat images look nice. Especially that SAL/Long-Wave imagery.

Also for those that may want a little help learning how to view and navigate the models...

FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video

NHC has a good hold on Felix...remember what the Dr has said....their forecast tracks over the years are more reliable than the models....y'all can watch Felix hit Mexico....I'm gonna watch college football!!..:)
stormy, at this point anything is possible with 98. Personally I am guessing it will be a fish storm, but that is a very much unsupported guess.
Morning SJ - way cool video going on - i really like your page...
Anyone notice that Accuweather took there Felix tracking map down. I wonder if they are re-evaluating for a more Northern track.
the one that are down playing Felix i feel sorry for you
slu

theyve either lost radar and cant fix it or a mengine faliure or some 1 got hurt badly in an updraft
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Thanks for the Ramsdis heads up y'all ☺

It now has made the Quick Links page.

Although I really wish I could get some CIRA personnel access. Those meta sat images look nice. Especially that SAL/Long-Wave imagery.

Also for those that may want a little help learning how to view and navigate the models...

FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video

I have a friend at cira and i could try to get you some access to some of there imagery.
Ok, here is my analysis:
1 named storm in May (Andrea)
1 named storm in June (Barry)
1 named storm in July (Chantal)
2 Named storms in August (Dean, Erin) so that is average for august, but we already have our first named storm on sept. 1st

1296. CJ5
Posted By: gatagus07 at 1:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
...y'all can watch Felix hit Mexico....I'm gonna watch college football!!..:)


WAR EAGLE!!!!!!11
1297. Drakoen
Adrian, could i get access too?
98 seems to have a track that is starting farther north than Dean and Felix, do you think it will stay north or shift south as it approaches the Carribean?
guys the nhc knows what they are doing with the tracks. I definatly dont see this making a complete NW turn in the central caribbean into the yucatan channel. Yucatan is as far north as I am willing to go for landfall right now
1300. Drakoen
the Navy site has 98L at 1009mmb 25 kts winds. So the issue is the current organization.
so, if 98L organizes a bit more convection over the center, then it has a chance to be a TD soon enough. looks like it still has some convection over the center that is still trying to build, but because of the shear is slow going for 98L
Adrian, that would be pretty dang cool if you could!

Thanks mel :~) Hope to offer some similar stuff in the future. May try a retake of that one today as I have gotten a little feed back on it and I also need to correct my Miss Teen SC moment where I said Gil was off the W coast of Africa..lol

Nan, you have mail...Sorry admin..
in the mean time look at this this for sure has a ch of 99L or TD 7 or 8 what ever comes 1st when it comes off

1304. IKE
Posted By: CJ5 at 8:29 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
Posted By: gatagus07 at 1:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
...y'all can watch Felix hit Mexico....I'm gonna watch college football!!..:)

WAR EAGLE!!!!!!11


Kansas State will get slaughtered...should be a tough opponent for Auburn...wink, wink.
I dont know, if that low pressure gets better organized in the gulf, that would be 99L taz
Here's what I see
Felix - after studying water vapor, it seems the western edge of his convection is still being pulled North, while the outflow directly over him is being flattened out by the high--will he outrun the high, as he is now traveling at 18 mph?

98L - almost seems to have a very slight southerly motion - will this help it avoid the trough to the NW? how far south will the trough dig?
1307. Drakoen
how long till the next advisory im bored!
whats up with the recon?
Thanks for the video SJ - I am bookmarking it - watched it and had an "aha" moment...NOW i get it!

You have a great day - off to go enjoy my rainy day here in SE GA.

drakoen ty for the image

98l looks to be doing quite well!
Mira,

Tune in later today, same bat time same bat channel LOL!
Look out for the Canes, no one is expecting much from them this year, except me.
1314. IKE
The convection w/98L is expanding...might be a bigger threat to the northern islands...and PR...Haiti/DR.
1315. Drakoen
98L doesn't have a southerly motion. Pay attention to the LLC not that ball convection.
where is everyone
1317. Drakoen
staring at loops maybe. LOL. maybe i shouldn't have said anything.
1319. CATMAN5
LOOKS LIKE THE CMC IS UP TO ITS ANTICS AGAIN.Link
IS IT TAKING ENERGY FROM A PUTATIVE FELIX AND CREATING A NEW TS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SE OF HATTERAS IN 4-6 DAYS?
The next advisory comes in about 1~1 1/4 hours.
I think people think the center is under the ball of convection...well its not. the easterly shear is causing problems, BUT, convection is beginning to perhaps form over the center, so we need to see if the trend continues
1323. Daveg
More and more models shifting North, when will the NHC shift the track?
one interesting thing to note, is that the name Felix has been a hurricane everytime it has developed
lmao Hip, why you got to be like that?
1326. IKE
You're on a roll Hipdeep1.
can some 1 post me a link to the nrl navy tc site?
I apologize....just for a second! LOL!
Right now Felix is S of forecast points...
navy sites been update sort of


they update the look but not the invests and stuff..... 94l is still up
This high pressure sitting over Florida for much of the summer has been a double edged sword. While it has protected us from any hurricanes, it has also prevented us from getting any rain. Two weeks and counting here in Sarasota with not a trace of rain. Looks like 07 will be the year for Mexico and South America to get all the canes. With this high in place it looks like no US landfalls this year.
hamster, second link under imagery
here.
tcfa out for 94l
lol

it still says so on the nrl site!
1336. Drakoen
Posted By: coffeecrusader at 1:49 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

This high pressure sitting over Florida for much of the summer has been a double edged sword. While it has protected us from any hurricanes, it has also prevented us from getting any rain. Two weeks and counting here in Sarasota with not a trace of rain. Looks like 07 will be the year for Mexico and South America to get all the canes. With this high in place it looks like no US landfalls this year.


You can't say that. I hope you aren't letting your guard down. Late September and october when trough really start coming down and eroding away at the ridge you might not make that same statement.
1337. IKE
Posted By: coffeecrusader at 8:49 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
This high pressure sitting over Florida for much of the summer has been a double edged sword. While it has protected us from any hurricanes, it has also prevented us from getting any rain. Two weeks and counting here in Sarasota with not a trace of rain. Looks like 07 will be the year for Mexico and South America to get all the canes. With this high in place it looks like no US landfalls this year.


Aren't you being a bit premature?
Too early to make that call CC.

More and more fronts will start coming through between now and the end of the season. It will become a timing thing before too long. The US is not in the clear by any means.
good morning everyone

I would not pay too much attention to the model tracks this early until Felix has been around for about another 24 hrs or so.

Remember the early tracks with Dean that took that system NW through the N Leewards and E of PR ?. Even later with Dean the GFDL was swinging all the way from Texas to Belize before the models came into general agreement

The NHC also have the ability to adjust for the little nuances they see in the overall dynamics of the atmosphere that computers perhaps cannot, particularly since most model runs take several hrs and by the time the run is over some of the factors that went into the run have changed, and sometimes significantly so.

Finally, until you get upper atmosphere sampling from the Gulfstrem jet the models are working with less than 100% of the info they need
right now its at 13N
whats at 13 ?
1343. IKE
It's at 12.3N, 62.8W according to the Navy site...45 knot winds w/a pressure of 1000 mb's.
1344. LLJ
OK....Hip. I'm on it.
You guys should really appreciate the fact that this is just Sep 1
It is not anything else and nothing else matters but the biggest mutha out there>
looks like felix is strengthening
The water temps are relatively cool ( probably from Dean ) until near 75W where we will likely see a burst of strenghtening. After that, pray it doesn't get N of 18

Felix looks to be dead on 12 to me. Maybe a little more S.
ok, TWC said that recon had to leave for some reason, although on the nhc site they will be back in at 8pm EDT
probably a mechanical
well dvorak and nhc say the center is at 12.3N
1351. Drakoen
kman, isn't TCHP how deep 26c water is? If so it looks to me like the 26c water extends down to at least 50 meters in all except a couple of areas...
Could 98l Threaten Florida or Be that storm that yesterday The Cmc and Gfs Model Formed Into florida?
Kman might have to worry about those high water temps. with the g storm. Hopefully Felix wont do too much damage to Nicaraqua they have made alot of progress in the past 5 yrs on their infestructure. Foreign money.
1355. Drakoen
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 2:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Could 98l Threaten Florida or Be that storm that yesterday The Cmc and Gfs Model Formed Into florida?


No the time frame is of. The GFS was showing a feature of Africa, not one in the CATL.
I wouldnt say the SST's in the caribbean are cool, as they are 82-84 degrees or so
SJ

Correct, but in the NW Caribbean the water is like jet fuel for a hurricane because so far this season it has not been stirred up

Take a look at the area S of Haiti that I referred to. Felix could put on a show of rapid intensification and then level out after leaving that area

extreme

I said " relatively cool "
That means relative to when Dean passed over and then created cold water upwelling that has brought the temps down in the E Caribbean
Weak surface low off the middle Texas coast bears watching according to TWC. Just looks like a rainy holiday weekend to me.
sammy, the storm the GFS and CMC are forming is still over Africa. Should come off in the next day or two. 98 is completely different.

May want to take a look at this...

FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video
yes, I know Dean brought the temps down, but really not much at all though. if he would have moved slower, then the temps would be even cooler
Central atlantic invest already near td status.
1364. Drakoen
Posted By: leftovers at 2:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Central atlantic invest already near td status.


The organization does not support that.
I am off to run a few errands but will check in later
BFN
1366. hahaguy
and for all those people saying this season is a bust everything is starting to ramp up now
Good morning guys how are you this morning. Can't stay long due to me going to work on a bloody Saturday but wanted to put my two cents in. 98L looking at the latest Qscat is on the verge of having a closed LLC which would possibly support TD status. That could be a TD by tomorrow. Felix after looking at the latest models that aren't even updated on Wunderground has a wide range of area it can go. Some models take it up the channel between Yucatan and Cuba while others slam it into the central american coast. All interests from Cancun and Cozymel southward should be watching this intently. Ok got to run, you guys be nice to the trolls and have a fun day.
Nervous New Orleans
Ok,I can look at all these maps, models, etc. I understand that high pressure systems keep away hurricanes. I also can watch animations of the projected path. What I don't get is how to watch the high. So tell me please do you guys see this high staying over the Louisiana area through next week protecting us from the current tropical systems? Where does one go to learn how to look at the high pressure? Please understand Katrina is still on my mind!
StormW

Thanks for your post, you explain things in easy to understand terms without bias.
Quite a Split by the 12z Model Runs..

Felix
1372. IKE
Posted By: weathersp at 9:24 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
Quite a Split by the 12z Model Runs..


A shift to the north...
I second that StormW.

I visited that yesterday evening; very impressive and informational.
1374. aquak9
98L.
'Nuff said.
1375. v7fan16
I think it is going to take a Dean path and be over with. No need for US to worry.
Re: HDOB Recon Cancelled
Of the 4 sets of recon LLJ posted and plotted by boobless:
Mission 2 OB 3 was outbound from to the SE
OB 7 is where they turned around back to the north
OB's 10,11 are all homeward bound.
that track should be shifted north soon
You sure Drake?
1380. LLJ
Re: HDOB Recon Cancelled
Of the 4 sets of recon LLJ posted and plotted by boobless:
Mission 2 OB 3 was outbound from to the SE
OB 7 is where they turned around back to the north
OB's 10,11 are all homeward bound.


What? I posted none of those.
image

convection continueing to increase around the center
1382. keisa90
This isn't as easy as Dean. It's September now and these storms start to sniff out the troughs. Look at the models and notice the pull to the north near the Yucatan. I don't think you can look at the storms track right now to determine where it is going to go. We need to see what it does once it reaches the Western Caribbean.
Welcome Kiesa and well said! Felix is a wait and see item right now as the tropics usually are.

Welcome aboard to you too v7, but I think it is too early to make that call.
1385. Drakoen
yea around the center. The upper level dynamics are causing the convection to get displace from the low pressure center. still it is firing decent convection.
Lots of shear over 98L for now but tomorrow gets easier for it. Interesting shape, very similar to 94L with a front-leading NW direction band around 18 45, leading back to main body around 13 38. 94L had a VERY simialr look but further west and further south when it had that shape. Both 94L/Felix and 98L were fairly robust continental African waves that came off Cape Verdes and fell apart as far as convection. Interesting also to note direction of both systems. After they came off CV they headed WSW from the Azores high pushing them south I guess.

My goodness, if 98L develops and African wave coming off in a day or two develops things could look potentially VERY busy next week. The 3 potential systems look to be spaced far enough apart for now that if they all developed they might coexist (although the African cont wave would have to form fairly quickly before Felix hit land). Interetsing how no computer models developed Felix or 98L ahead of time (not even CMC!). We need a good genesis model :) Although it might gain the rep of CMC quickly because lots of potential areas never develop. IMO only.
http://i243.photobucket.com/albums/ff316/b00ble55/Mission02.jpg
1389. Drakoen
I hope the NHC gets a floater on 98L soon.
Is there??
1391. keisa90
Weather patterns start to change in September. I am not saying I know Felix is going to move north. I am just saying that the fall weather patterns start to have an influence on storms as it gets later in the season.
1393. Ron5244
Felix will likely be a no show for the U.S.

Now 98L...that might be the one too watch.
Posted By: LLJ at 11:34 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 11:31Z
Date: September 1, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 6 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11...




1395. keisa90
Hipdeep, you seem upset. I thought this was a discussion?
LOL HipDeep you are really bothered by that Aug/Sept. weather pattern thing huh? And by the way the weather God told me to tell you he is unhappy with you mocking him you shall feel his wrath!
1398. IKE
Hipdeep1 is trying to incite the masses.
1399. keisa90
Wow, somebody need an anger management class.
I'm not upset....but this is not a discussion.
1401. Drakoen
Posted By: IKE at 2:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Hipdeep1 is trying to incite the masses.


Nothing new in the blog...
1402. IKE
Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 9:42 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
Patterns do not change from one day to the next!
This is now September First......now everything changes?
Get a grip!


You seem to be the one that needs a grip...sit back...take a deep breath and relax.
1403. aquak9
Hipdeep, I turned my calender over to September. But the word "september" is crossed out, it just says "DOOMED"!
Ok, y'all I am off for awhile. Going to try a retake on the video. Hopefully it won't take as long this time around!
23, I told you yesterday that the tropics can change on a dime and low and behold!!!!!!!!! So much for you inactive season.. LOL
lmao amazin :~)
1407. IKE
Felix up to 65 mph.
Drak anything new with the GFS model runs
No comments from the experts on the surface low off the Texas coast that TWC keeps mentioning?
1410. C2News
omg 65 mph winds!
doomed is not the point. People believe one single day changes the seasons....NO!
Felix is blowing up...from 45 to 65 mph..rapid strength going on here.
1413. Drakoen
1414. Drakoen
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Drak anything new with the GFS model runs


No. Nothing of interest now.
So much for the dry air coming off of South America hindering development.
Posted By: Eyewall911 at 2:45 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

23, I told you yesterday that the tropics can change on a dime and low and behold!!!!!!!!! So much for you inactive season.. LOL

LOL....I meant as far as landfalling systems for the united states.I refuse to comment more as i dont wont to get banned.

1417. keisa90
Anyway, to everyone else. I enjoy the information you guys provide. Keep up the good work!
wow rapid strengthening occuring
1419. Drakoen
This is looking, so far, like The Year the Yucatan got its Butt Kicked. I live in Florida, so this makes me relieved and a tad feeling guilty it's someone else's storms right now. A question--does anyone have tracking data the Cliper Model uses? I need a downloadable data set of coordinates that includes month/day/year and positions of the storms that specific model uses. I looked for it online and found some data no one will share.
Greetings AquaK9!....... Also it sure seems that ahead of the storm the supposed high is pulling in alot of moisture from the south.... Any comments?
1422. IKE
From the latest NHC discussion on Felix....


Felix has been moving basically to west for the past 6-12 hours and
my initial motion estimate is 270/16. A strong ridge is forecast
to steer the storm a little north of due westward for the next few
days. Track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. Beyond
3 days...there is a question of how much ridging will be present in
the Gulf of Mexico. A few models have enough of a weakness in the
ridge to force a west-northwest or northwest motion near the end of
the period.
65mph!....this cud be a cane as early as 11pm..Wow
Steve Lyons just said cent. atl. invest could be a td today if thunderstorms persist.
where did that originate Ike and who is the author please!
ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

I remember the NHC sayin something similar for Dean
1427. Drakoen
Gonna have to deal with some dry air as well. As it moves west it should get into warmer SST, though.
1428. IKE
Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 9:52 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
where did that originate Ike and who is the author please!


The NHC...I'll edit the post.
felix is already much stronger than he should be already, so the intensity track is just a good guess, but all this intensification reminds me of dean when he was only supposed to be Cat3 near jamaica and was almost a cat 5
I was kind of joking about 35W (now 98L) becoming the Little Engine that could last night, but it did. They grow up so fast these days.
lol Henriette was stronger than Felix and now Felix is stronger than her lol
Hipdeep, I turned my calender over to September. But the word "september" is crossed out, it just says "DOOMED"!

LOL, I turn my back for a minute and look at all the mess out there.

Re: Felix-Rapid Strength Increase
Can anybody say "Upper Level Anticyclone over storm?"
Gonna have to deal with some dry air as well. As it moves west it should get into warmer SST, though.

Felix had same problem and look what happened, he created his own moisture
1437. Drakoen
Posted By: Eyewall911 at 2:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Gonna have to deal with some dry air as well. As it moves west it should get into warmer SST, though.

Felix had same problem and look what happened, he created his own moisture


yea thats what i am saying.
Felix is gonna be the 'brother' of Dean I see.
The NHC was the author

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
1441. snowboy
folks, we could be looking at 2 major hurricanes in a couple of days..
1443. Drakoen
I'm sensing some drama. So i'll leave for a bit...
So yesterday all the computer models were taking this system into central america RIGHT?? Now some have them coming in the gulf.

I don't understand weather patterns, so could someone explain what has taken place to change the tracks.

Thanks for the explaination
Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.
doomed is not the point. People believe one single day changes the seasons....NO!


If everyone would slow down I believe what was meant was it's a general pattern, like end of August first of Sep. It's an iffy thing like when we get our first frost in MO. Or like if snow is forecast for the first of April. I have NEVER seen it snow after April 15 in MO and we won't get any BAD snows after March 15, COLD and snow, BUT it can and has snowed the first two weeks in April. That's only 50 years of being alive but it's a pattern. See the logic?
1446. keisa90
Hipdee -
I believe he said, "The NHC...I'll edit the post." or were you too busy looking for someone to cut on to see that.
1448. IKE
Hope the unreliable latest NAM model run is wrong on where Felix is headed...

Link

And no I don't believe it. I'll side with the GFS.

I am curious to see if the NHC gets this one as perfect as they did Dean. I think this one comes with slightly more uncertainty. If not, this one is going to seriously piss of the wishcasters.
is that an eye maybe starting to form with Felix?
and just a recap, Felix formed as TD6 at 5pm...18hrs later, we now have Felix and it has 65mph winds...
i was thinking the same too extreme. the eye could pop out where all the heavy convection is forming. it could be a hurricane by 5pm or 11pm tonight
Um Just how accurate is the NAM. THats the path charley took
1455. nash28
It appears the NAM is thinking the weakness will be stronger in order for Felix to move closer to the western tip of Cuba.

Still many uncertainties involved with the latter part of the track.

well on visible imagery, you can see a little slit west of a patch of high clouds, and to me, it seems an eye is forming
IF the NAM is correct then the force of the earth spinning on its axis will cause Florida to shove 700 miles to the west causing a direct impact ... LOL!
12.....12 hours later we had Felix.
That's how long that boy took before it was classed!
Wow, Felix flexing. 98L convection dying back a little but stayed for a long time. Wish they'd take the floater off East coat or Mexico GOM and put it on 98L...
I am thinking they will keep the same winds at 5pm, just because dvorak wont help much anymroe as it still says 3.0 and Felix has higher winds than that, so I am thinking they will drop the pressure a bit but keep the same winds, till the HH's fly back in
1462. IKE
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 10:05 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
Um Just how accurate is the NAM. THats the path charley took


The NAM is unreliable on tracks of storms. Felix appears headed almost due west at this time.
Problem is if it does try to turn north at the end of the period. That would be not good.
1464. nash28
Ok guys... For those of you involved in this bitching, knock it off.

We have two threats to track and discuss, so there is zero room for the b.s.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

1466. Drakoen
Posted By: nash28 at 3:08 PM GMT on September 01, 2007.

Ok guys... For those of you involved in this bitching, knock it off.


heh now you know why i left.
1467. nash28
Yes, right now Felix is moving due west. It's after 96hrs or so when the track gets a little more fuzzy.
NEW BLOG!
Nash Please not again. LOL how are you. I was thinking all us Pin. County guys and Gals should find a fine dinning establishment once a month for meeting on the weather LOL
Thanks Ike I'm breathing again LOL
1472. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 10:06 AM CDT on September 01, 2007.
It appears the NAM is thinking the weakness will be stronger in order for Felix to move closer to the western tip of Cuba.

Still many uncertainties involved with the latter part of the track.


Look what it shows at 84 hours...which is about Wednesday morning right after midnight...in east Texas...better hope it's wrong. Looks like the moisture in east Texas now.

This was from the morning discussion out of Houston...

"The 500 mb trough is forecast to get caught up in the westerlies
and push east across the area Wednesday/Thursday. Could see the
most favorable lift and low level convergence this period. Have
kept probability of precipitation at 40 percent...but wouldn't be surprised if we have to
raise them in time. Trough shifts east of the area by Friday...and
have kept optimistic forecast of 30 probability of precipitation."
1473. o311
98 bothers me
1474. nash28
Interesting Ike.

The strength and timing of that trough could be huge.
Masters has a new blog up
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011149
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING AUGUST.
TWO OF THESE CYCLONES BECAME NAMED STORMS DURING AUGUST...AND ONE
OF THESE...DEAN...REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. ALTHOUGH THE
NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
FOR AUGUST...THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...A MEASURE
OF THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...WAS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND
DURING 16-17 AUGUST AND TURNED NORTHWARD OVER WEST TEXAS ON 18
AUGUST. SURVIVING REMARKABLY OVER LAND...THE CYCLONE ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA VERY EARLY ON 19 AUGUST. WHILE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA THAT MORNING...ERIN PRODUCED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. POST-STORM ANALYSIS OF THIS UNUSUAL EVENT IS
ONGOING TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND STATUS OF ERIN OVER OKLAHOMA.
the peak of hurricane season is not until the 10th seems we are already peaking the first day of septemeber
Hi Adrian and Patrap!