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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. smuldy
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.
oh ok sorry totally misread sarcasm and text and all lol; i respect whatever stormw wants to think cause i get 90% of my info from him and some are ridiculous with their one line fishstorm not fishstorm posts and if he meant novice casters like me he and he alone here has the right so i just shut my mouth and apologized if i came off to the very valuable experts here in any annoying way save for my humor posts
3003. SQUAWK
Quoting StormW:


Well, I can...model consensus...still ain't happened yet. It will or should, but not yet. And the GFS that everyone worships, had her taking the hard north at 40W earlier in the period...where is the storm now?

Storm, here is the part that I just don't understand: why do the models not see the things that you and others see? They spend so much money and time on them and they can't see a weakness in front of a storm? I just don't get it.
Danielle is clearly going to go south of the next forecast point.

Also, I'd expect 96L to form later today from the African AOI.
Tropical Storm Danielle winds 60 mph moving wnw at 14 mpg and going to be a fish storm.
3006. surfmom
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Easy guys

There is a lot to learn from watching Danielle.

There is no sense in bashing anyone or questioning credentials.

All the ladies on the blog are so civil. Do us fellas really have that much of an issue getting along with others?

Anyway, moving on.....


well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO
Quoting kmanislander:


I think a track more to the West short term but those two highs will not sit still. It would take a very strong high to force a strengthening storm to the S of a Westerly heading. Of course, it is always possible but not probable IMO.



Is that what happened with Ike?

hey ryang That sat pas that you posted confirms my COC location
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Tropical Storm Danielle winds 60 mph moving wnw at 14 mpg and going to be a fish storm.


How many times have you said "fish storm" since this was over Africa?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The "holier-than-thou" attitude is really getting old and stale.


Thank you.
3016. pottery
Quoting surfmom:


well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO

Good for YOU, Wise One!
Pretty big blog update I've just completed, hope you all find it very informative!

Danielle strengthening 8/23/10
Will this new wave be too far south or too weak to be significantly recurved by the low or will Danielle pull it Northward or is it anyone's guess?
3019. SLU
We could have a hurricane in 18 - 24 hours.

3020. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


Oh man...don't even go there. That is so totally of the wall. I was referring to the folks that come on and make blanket statements, every other post from some of the same folks, and come on to stir things up...I mean, it's funny to, how every time something hits the water, as soon as it exits Africa, everyone wants to scream fish. When ya back it up with data you can post and show me...then I listen...and I am not talking 'model consensus" either.
thats what i figured which is why i dint say anything but also value your input too much to get offended were you to ever get mad at novices like me for making a best attempt forecast guess using the little we know and coming off as being experts that may hinder the few just reading on here for info as they prepare for potential storms
3022. surfmom
Quoting SQUAWK:

Storm, here is the part that I just don't understand: why do the models not see the things that you and others see? They spend so much money and time on them and they can't see a weakness in front of a storm? I just don't get it.


ME too!...but I think this is where forecasting isn't just hard science, but also an art & the talent to sense is a "gift" COMPUTERS DON'T "SENSE or FEEL" A horse trainer can have all the book knowledge in the world -- but if he/she can't "tune" in , can't "feel", "sense" and really read the energy of the horse...the trainer maybe adequate, but not Gifted

okay, back to my seat
look like Danielle is going to have a new friend soon right in back of her...haha.
Pretty darn tight consensus.



3026. smuldy
Quoting DestinJeff:
Remember the Halcion Days of last night, with the reduced tension in here?

Those were the good ole days of the blog.
lol
Hurricane by 2pm today :D
3029. IKE
6Z GFDL....Link

6Z HWRF....Link
3030. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:


True, but now against Community Standards.

Denied, re-submit in 30 days.


ROTFLMAO!!!!
3031. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Remember the Halcion Days of last night, with the reduced tension in here?

Those were the good ole days of the blog.

That was clear.
3008 and 3022

SURFIE - well said, well said. I poked my head in for a quick look this morning, but think I will back out and let the morning feeding frenzy wear a few folks out.

Back later in the day for the next discussion.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Is that what happened with Ike?



There are numerous instances where a building high has blocked the path of a system and even caused it to reverse course. Remember Andrew ?.

It was a weak and almost dissipated system headed out to sea and the next thing everyone knew it stopped in its tracks, intensified, made a turn due West and the rest is history.

Ivan did the same. It was on a track to pass over Jamaica, came to a dead stop 30 miles S of the island when it ran up underneath a high building to the West over Florida and then made a turn due West and passed about 25 miles S of Grand Cayman.

It is important to note though that it is not just the position of a high but also where other atmospheric features may be at the time. For instance, a building high / ULL combination would create a different steering regime than just having a strong ridge dominating.

The overriding point however is simple. Even strong hurricanes can head off in odd directions when least expected.

3036. surfmom
Hey Pottery -- just thinking of you!! I suspect Missy Danielle will bring waves to your shores - the thinking here in FL is it'll be a blustery windy mess on the Ecoast -
Hope you have a very SPECIAL & Happy B-day Link
3037. SLU
Microwave imagery suggests that the inner core is strengthening.

Quoting StormW:


I don't know Stef...I blew that one.


Huh? You didn't blow that one. My locals, now they blew it big-time! And didn't admit it until after the fact. UGH! Which is another reason I'm glad there are other places to go for information than just the "Official" channels. No, what you did was save my ass. :)
Just asked if that is what happened to Ike because thats what the track looked like.
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.


No, that's not what he was saying. He was basically suggesting that folks who don't know a whit about tropical weather should maybe sit back and quietly learn rather than constantly flood the forum with their non-scientific and biased points of view. To put it succinctly: an opinion or a wish is not a forecast.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty darn tight consensus.



That ULL is going to do mighty things on Danielle. It's in perfect position to keep this storm off of Bermuda.
Hi. I have a question, but in PGI34L, what does PGI stand for? Also I found a site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/tc_home2.cgi and looked in the archive, but there's no 01L.PGI01L, 02L, 03L, ..., 15L.PGI15L. Can somebody explain why?
This whole model thing is like a double standard. It's one thing to criticize the model's data when its 100+ hrs out and it doesnt quite fit your idea but then the same folks who are critical of the data turn around and present model data like it's the holy grail at 100+ hrs to prove their own synopsis?


I'm starting to wonder who has more spin - some of these statements that I am reading or Danielle?
Quoting Neapolitan:


No, that's not what he was saying. He was basically suggesting that folks who don't know a whit about tropical weather should maybe sit back and quietly learn rather than constantly flood the forum with their non-scientific and biased points of view. To put it succinctly: an opinion or a wish is not a forecast.


and that's fine. But who gets to decide who is qualified enough to post? I paid for my membership here, I'm not allowed to post? I never post forecasts, just ask questions mostly. But if Dr. Masters wanted to limit participation, I'm sure he would.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty darn tight consensus.





Add climatology to that and hell its damn near a slam dunk!!! Of course never say never I guess.
Quoting kmanislander:


There are numerous instances where a building high has blocked the path of a system and even caused it to reverse course. Remember Andrew ?.

It was a weak and almost dissipated system headed out to sea and the next thing everyone knew it stopped in its tracks, intensified, made a turn due West and the rest is history.

Ivan did the same. It was on a track to pass over Jamaica, came to a dead stop 30 miles S of the island when it ran up underneath a high building to the West over Florida and then made a turn due West and passed about 25 miles S of Grand Cayman.

It is important to note though that it is not just the position of a high but also where other atmospheric features may be at the time. For instance, a building high / ULL combination would create a different steering regime than just having a strong ridge dominating.

The overriding point however is simple. Even strong hurricanes can head off in odd directions when least expected.



I didn't know about Andrew and Ivan. Although I do remember someone saying he wished that Andrew was headed away from Miami like they thought at one time. But you are correct that they can make unexpected moves in track and intensity.
3048. CapnJak
Quoting surfmom:


well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO

Well said lol.
Morning Storm! How are you?
3050. GoofOff
Quoting StormW:
I know I shouldn't, as I know everyone is entitled to their opinion on Doc's blog, but I have to ask...how many of you that come on here and just make blanket statements and like stirring the pot, REALLY know anything about tropical meteorology?

Storm,
I have no training in that field. I am a retired mechanical engineer so I do enjoy studying charts and data. I really do appreciate all the information you give us. I am a native of Nebraska and have seen many tornadoes. I prefer hurricanes to them due to the advance notice. I moved to Florida over 10 years ago and live about a mile inland from the Atlantic about 45 miles north of West Palm Beach. Since I moved here we have taken three direct hits from hurricanes Francis, Jeanne and Wilma so I respect their power. My comments, on the very rare occasions I make one, are based upon what I can see from several different sources. I think the technology has made giant strides thanks to satellites. Needless to say, weather is a chain reaction over the entire earth and a change anywhere can affect the weather pattern everywhere. After the loop Jeanne made, I watch them very closely but don't get very concerned about my families' safety until about three days before the path is more clearly defined. I did have the pleasure of working on both the Gemini and Apollo projects for NASA subcontractors and am proud to have been involved in the technology that came from those projects. All things considered, Mother Nature will behave as she damn well pleases. Keep up the great work.
Danielle looks to be on the verge of popping out an eye in the next couple of hours so we won't have any trouble knowing where the center is.
3052. SLU
Pre-Earl?

Quoting SLU:
Pre-Earl?



Probably.

3054. lhwhelk
Quoting surfmom:


ME too!...but I think this is where forecasting isn't just hard science, but also an art & the talent to sense is a "gift"

This is why there is no Artificial Intelligence yet. Computers and all the data they provide are helpful, but they can only provide that data for human beings--in this case forecasters--to make sense of.
i appreciate stormW and masters and people on here with a lot of know how because i cant depend on any tv weather available to me to really go into depth about things and i dont know enough about met to look at data online and translate it in any way. so its really kinda awesome i can come here and find out things three days before its on our local news.
3056. hcubed
Quoting StormW:
I know I shouldn't, as I know everyone is entitled to their opinion on Doc's blog, but I have to ask...how many of you that come on here and just make blanket statements and like stirring the pot, REALLY know anything about tropical meteorology?


I come here to get the latest "between-the-bulletins" info. Anything that gets me a few extra hours to prepare.

I've learned who to pay attention to, and who to ignore.

And, several times, I've had to put on the hip waders just to get through the posts...

I'm slowly learning the "lingo", and how to read the charts, but I have nowhere near the expertise that you have. Thanks for putting up with us.
3057. SLU
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Probably.



Looks like the horse has finally bolted.
3060. bird72


Looks like Danielle miss some forecast points.
The last few screens of the MIMIC does suggest an eyewall feature being formed.
Quoting SLU:
Microwave imagery suggests that the inner core is strengthening.



Judging by that microwave imagery, I'd think the center of Danielle is at 14.7 N 39.0 W.
I'm out for now. Will come back later today. Have a great morning all.

PS. Center is left and South of the points :)
3064. SLU
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!


This is the type of action we've been expecting all season long.
Quoting GoofOff:

Storm,
I have no training in that field. I am a retired mechanical engineer so I do enjoy studying charts and data. I really do appreciate all the information you give us. I am a native of Nebraska and have seen many tornadoes. I prefer hurricanes to them due to the advance notice. I moved to Florida over 10 years ago and live about a mile inland from the Atlantic about 45 miles north of West Palm Beach. Since I moved here we have taken three direct hits from hurricanes Francis, Jeanne and Wilma so I respect their power. My comments, on the very rare occasions I make one, are based upon what I can see from several different sources. I think the technology has made giant strides thanks to satellites. Needless to say, weather is a chain reaction over the entire earth and a change anywhere can affect the weather pattern everywhere. After the loop Jeanne made, I watch them very closely but don't get very concerned about my families' safety until about three days before the path is more clearly defined. I did have the pleasure of working on both the Gemini and Apollo projects for NASA subcontractors and am proud to have been involved in the technology that came from those projects. All things considered, Mother Nature will behave as she damn well pleases. Keep up the great work.


Uh uh. I like you. Lol. :)
3067. tkeith
Quoting kmanislander:
Danielle looks to be on the verge of popping out an eye in the next couple of hours so we won't have any trouble knowing where the center is.
Does that mean it has reached Hurricane strength?
3068. surfmom
Quoting SLU:


Looks like the horse has finally bolted.
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!

Yup - Barn door is wide OPEN
3069. scott39
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center is that far N and E?
Quoting SLU:
Pre-Earl?



Looking good so far on that...
Quoting tkeith:
Does that mean it has reached Hurricane strength?


A strengthening storm can begin forming an eye, sometimes quite distinctly, before reaching actual hurricane strength.
NHC is pretty reasonable so Im only guessing that they would send a recon aircraft today to see if Danielle has reached strength?
3073. smuldy
Quoting scott39:
The center is that far N and E?
that is a forecast int and is 4 hours old now; kman suggested the center may have shifted as the storm organized
3074. tkeith
Quoting kmanislander:


A strengthening storm can begin forming an eye, sometimes quite distinctly, before reaching actual hurricane strength.
Thanks
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for now. Will come back later today. Have a great morning all.

PS. Center is left and South of the points :)



I agree with you, I am not seeing any circulation where sat estimates place it. A look at MIMIC suggest this also.
3076. surfmom
Quoting GoofOff:
Mother Nature will behave as she damn well pleases.
smart man!!!
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
NHC is pretty reasonable so Im only guessing that they would send a recon aircraft today to see if Danielle has reached strength?


Its too far east for Recon.
Storm,

Sorry if I did not respond soon after sending me that website regarding El Nino and La Nina seasons and hurricane landfall probabilities. I did reply to you on your tropical synopsis page from Friday.

Very interesting document and thanks for sending it.

On another note, I it is too early but what are your thoughts on the AOI that is about to exit Africa?
3079. smuldy
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
NHC is pretty reasonable so Im only guessing that they would send a recon aircraft today to see if Danielle has reached strength?
would they really fly into it before 50w?
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.

Not sure, but if I wanted to be certain about this track and the storm's intensity track given Bermuda as a very probably danger area, then I would send er up...
I have the center estimated at 14.4N/39W, just my guess!
3083. Ryuujin
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.
Credit it to those who spotted it a few hours ago.

Usually when people scream about centre relocation on an established storm, it's just misreading the visuals or satellite imagery.

But, this time it appears to be correct.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.



Wow! It really does look like it nose-dived SW on that.
3086. smuldy
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Not sure, but if I wanted to be certain about this track and the storm's intensity track given Bermuda as a very probably danger area, then I would send er up...
would be nice if they would so i could wake up to some obs data later this afternoon, but my guess would be for budgetary reasons they would wait til it was n or w; but its a total wild guess there so idk crossing fingers they do
Quoting BobinTampa:


and that's fine. But who gets to decide who is qualified enough to post? I paid for my membership here, I'm not allowed to post? I never post forecasts, just ask questions mostly. But if Dr. Masters wanted to limit participation, I'm sure he would.


Of course you can post, as can anyone--even those who didn't pay for a membership. But being a supposedly civilized group of adults, the hope is we would all be humble enough to speak what we know but shut up when we don't. StormW--for one, and their are others--gives excellent analysis, and explains in detail why he believes this or that will happen, and when. On the opposite end of the spectrum, however, there are a group of knuckleheads on here who treat the forum either like a first-grade classroom when the teacher steps out, a place to practice their lame stand-up comedy, or--maybe worst of all--a dumping ground for their baseless, non-scientific opinions and wishcasts and fearcasts, most of them offered without a single shred of actual proof. Any uneducated doofus can come on here and shout "Fish storm!!! Fish storm!!!", or "I know the NHC says Danielle's moving NW, but I think it's moving straight south!", or "I think the NHC is lying; Danielle is already a Cat 5 and it's headed for New York, but they just don't want to tell us so we don't panic!!!" Do those doofi have the right to post such garbage? I suppose so. But do they have a need? Of course not. You know that, and I know that. We just wish that they knew that...
wayfaringstranger

You probably have me on ignore, but Danielle is currently too far east for them to do a reconnaissance mission.
COC now at 14.5N 39.0W moving W
3091. SLU

REPOST FROM AUGUST 21st

On August 21st through the years. The numbers in the brackets indicate the season's activity:

1995 - 7-3-1 (19-11-5)
1996 - 4-3-1 (13-9-6)
1997 - 5-2-0 (8-3-1)
1998 - 3-0-0 (14-10-3)
1999 - 3-1-0 (12-8-5)
2000 - 4-2-1 (15-8-3)
2001 - 3-0-0 (15-9-4)
2002 - 3-0-0 (12-4-2)
2003 - 5-3-0 (16-7-3)
2004 - 5-3-2 (15-9-6)
2005 - 9-4-2 (28-15-7)
2006 - 4-0-0 (10-5-2)
2007 - 5-1-1 (15-6-2)
2008 - 6-2-1 (16-8-5)
2009 - 3-1-1 (9-3-2)
2010 - 3-1-0 (n/a)

Climatology (1966 - 2009) - 3-1-0

Average after August 21st (1995 - 2009) - 10-6-3

Average after August 21st of the two analog
years from the sample (1998 & 2005)- 16-10.5-4

CSU forecast - 18-10-5

Analog years post-August 21st average plus observed - 19-11.5-4


FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

Quoting twhcracker:
i appreciate stormW and masters and people on here with a lot of know how because i cant depend on any tv weather available to me to really go into depth about things and i dont know enough about met to look at data online and translate it in any way. so its really kinda awesome i can come here and find out things three days before its on our local news.


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.


Thanks. I came on here wondering why the coordinates seemed so off. This visual explains it beautifully.
3094. SLU
This is what you expect to see on August 23rd.

3096. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.
he had comments removed??? that should never happen. I wasn't jumping on him, or didnt mean to sound that way, I was being serious in saying he is the one person here that could curse me out for no reason and I would be fine with it because he adds more to this blog then jeff masters imo
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
wayfaringstranger

You probably have me on ignore, but Danielle is currently too far east for them to do a reconnaissance mission.


I gotcha, your not on ignore.
danielle is getting stronger and should reach hurricane force today...nothing has changed danielle is being steered by the high to the north of her..she will continue on a wnw course for 48 hours then by the time danielle reaches 50-55west she will start to feel the weakness from this monster trough digging down off the east coast..danielle at that time will turn north and nne and accelerate a few hundred miles east of bermuda leaving the island with giant swells from the storm.danielle at that time should be a major hurricane topping out at 130mph winds....the united states east coast will have very little affect from danielle as she continues to visit the fish in the atlantic..this trough is very unusual for this time of the year you usually see this set up in late september..i will have more on danielle later...now our attn turns to the eastern gom ..a surface low could form in the next 48-72 hours on the back side of a cool front...it really depends how far south the front clears the coast to see what we will have to deal with a rainmaker or a possible storm.anything that develops will move west so it has to be watched very closely....we will have a pretty good idea later on..ill be back with more on this later...as of right now the ssps are marginal in the gom but the ssts are still in the upper 80s...
3099. scott39
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE SYNOPSIS AUGUST 23, 2010 ISSUED 9:15 A.M.
Thank you, Is it too soon to tell if the second trough will keep the Eastern US safe?
3100. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Danielle Update..Video Blog


Nice forecast 03....worth listening to.
TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned from 4.7degrees north of WestNorthWest to due West.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
NHC upgrades TD6 to TS.Danielle
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 13.9n35.4w - - 40knots . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF *14.0n35.3w*
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
23Aug - 06amGMT - 14.5n36.5w - - 50knots - - - - 997mb - NHC-ATCF *14.8n36.0w,45knots,1000mb*
23Aug - 09amGMT - 14.8n37.1w - - 60 mph . . . . . 997mb - NHC.Adv.7
23Aug - 12pmGMT - 14.8n38.7w - - 50knots - - - - 994mb - NHC-ATCF
~43.5knots=50mph _ _ _ 50knots=~57.5mph _ _ _ ~52.2knots=60mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

*before NHC reevaluated&altered TS.Danielle's path*

Copy&paste 13.9n35.4w-14.2n35.9w, 14.2n35.9w-14.5n36.5w, 14.5n36.5w-14.8n37.1w, 14.8n37.1w-14.8n38.7w, hex, bda, sid, pos into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

And CONGRATULATIONS to the WUbers who spotted a smoother, more westward movement than what the NHC had been posting through its TS-center positions. Especially to StormW who caught even this latest heading shift earlier than the NHC.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I gotcha, your not on ignore.


Alright cool.

Just checking.
3104. Ryuujin
Quoting smuldy:
he had comments removed??? that should never happen. I wasn't jumping on him, or didnt mean to sound that way, I was being serious in saying he is the one person here that could curse me out for no reason and I would be fine with it because he adds more to this blog then jeff masters imo


Yeah, two of them at least. You'd think that hom being the person on the blog with the most experience as a met, esp in tropical situations, that people would listen. Oh!

This is for everyone, a bit of info on the ridge since its currently affecting us in the midwest...the local mets are saying that the ridge is going to stay in place here for at least 7 days. (ie no rain bleh). So how does that affect the trof to the left and if this is true how will it affect Danielle's steering?
3105. scott39
Quoting StormW:


The second trof SHOULD keep the U.S. safe, it's just a matter of how far west she gets upon her slow down, or possible stall.
What degrees do you expect a slow down or possible stall?
3106. surfmom
Interesting forecast/observation from the Surfer Perspective - This guy is also seeing what Stillwaiting mentioned in an earlier post as well as mentioned (thx) in post 3098
AURASURF/MICAH WEAVER/swfl GOMEX
Some junky knee high waves on local beach today. Maybe bigger elsewhere but I doubt it buoy is only 2ft as of now. Very rainy last night and over 2 inches fell here in St Pete. There is a 1009mb low in the gulf that will strengthen and torque a little bit so all you kids will go back to school with waves at the beach... Come on you can't skip the first day of school to go surfing. Hahaha. Respect your elders. Tuesday will be 'ol fart surfing day'. Looks waist high from the SW and choppy on Tuesday as that low starts to move N. Still a bump left for Wednesday: knee to thigh. Kids can surf after school.
Ahhh el Atlantico... starting to come to life. Looks like a pattern change in the long run.. Seems a little early but tons of east flow starting Friday. Kinda back door front looking as the whole ATL gets NE wind later in the period. Maybe we will get cooler breezy WX here in FL. Too bad the EC is going to be all choppy for this next swell. PR is gonna get the goods. East swell will go NE and be met by light SE winds so Next weekend looks real good down on the Isla del Encanto.
Have a good one!
I said first thing this morning at 5:30 that the center was reforming... I guess I was right
warning watch out for invest 96L SOON. this storm will form fast.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.



Maybe we had a relocation overnight.
i dont forsee any stall in fact i think danielle will pick up speed as she makes the turn to the north and sucked up by the monster trough..danielle will continue to get stronger and she should max out at 130mph winds...perfect recipe no shear little or no dry air and a high right on top...a recipe for RAPID STRENGTHING...
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?
3112. Ryuujin
Quoting scott39:
What degrees do you expect a slow down or possible stall?
. I'm not StormW, but like I said, my local mets seem to think that the ridge over us (Indiana) isn't going anywhere soon. 7 days, at least
Storm,

nice synopsis on Danielle. Thanks!

Sorry if I did not respond soon after sending me that website regarding El Nino and La Nina seasons and hurricane landfall probabilities. I did reply to you on your tropical synopsis page from Friday.

Very interesting document and thanks for sending it.

On another note, I it is too early but what are your thoughts on the AOI that is about to exit Africa?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I said first thing this morning at 5:30 that the center was reforming... I guess I was right


It didnt reform. It just shifted under the heavy convection.
Quoting StormW:


Chucktown,
I hear you on that! I did an internship down here at WTVT in Tampa...that stuff is just crazy!


Yea, it is very frustrating sometimes. At least we're not scripted like a lot of folks think. Weather is really the only portion of news that doesn't use a teleprompter. I supply the maps and forecast and have at it. And, since you've seen it in person, that 3 and half minutes feels more like a minute. I must admit though, when there is a weather situation, (severe or tropical) we do dictate to the producers how much time we need. Several research studies have shown that weather is the main reason people tune in to local news, no matter how bad we may miss a forecast, they always tune in tomorrow. Keep up the great work Storm. Agree or disagree, I enjoy popping in here to check out your synopsis. One of the best forecasting tools out there, right or wrong, is comparison to anothers work.
potential 96L will also be a fish probably. I hate it when storms turn north out to sea Jeeez no excitement.
Quoting SLU:
We could have a hurricane in 18 - 24 hours.



Very impressive sat pic. Convection is beginning to wrap around the center.
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


I think NASA has a different study going on this summer. That may be it?
3121. scott39
Quoting StormW:


That's going to depend on how the current trof progresses, how far south it dips, and how strong it becomes during the next 48 hours.
thanks
Quoting Chucktown:


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.


The met on WFTV in Orlando on Sunday did not even get to post a track of TD6 on air he directed viewers to go to the WFTV website to read about it.
3123. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:


Yeah, two of them at least. You'd think that hom being the person on the blog with the most experience as a met, esp in tropical situations, that people would listen. Oh!

This is for everyone, a bit of info on the ridge since its currently affecting us in the midwest...the local mets are saying that the ridge is going to stay in place here for at least 7 days. (ie no rain bleh). So how does that affect the trof to the left and if this is true how will it affect Danielle's steering?
that is crazy and if poor terminology by me contributed in any way i really apologize as he is the best here and the lessons he gives are really informative for novices like me; as for the forecasted stall in the midwestern ridge my guess would be not much but i might be dead wrong on that; i think the weaknesses are already both east of that, it could effect the new aoi though i would think (keyword could). anyway bedtime for me, will be interested to see the track and environmentals when i wake up in 8-9 hours have a good day all and again storm ty for your contributions
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I see an eye forming!
Quoting Ryuujin:
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.


Again, this is because we adults share this forum with a lot of first- and second-graders; they get their feelings hurt when someone attempts to reason with them, and they start hitting the minus button, the ignore link, or--more and more frequently--the red exclamation button. It's to be expected; I'm sure they throw the same red-faced, floor-banging, door-kicking, breath-holding temper tantrum every time their mommy and daddy tell them to brush their teeth or go to bed.

By the way, if this doesn't apply to you, the reader, you won't be bothered by it. If you are bothered by it, well, we likely already knew you would be... ;-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Maybe we had a relocation overnight.



Not a relocation. Late last night, 12am EST or so, it appeared that the center was being pulled WSW into the convection. Without visible confirmation though, that's a tough call, especially with a cloud canopy such as Danielle's. MIMIC was old at the time as well and suggested nothing. MIMIC & Visible this morning confirmed that it indeed was sucked into the convection and is presently working on a complete eye wall.
Quoting StormW:


Oh man...don't even go there. That is so totally of the wall. I was referring to the folks that come on and make blanket statements, every other post from some of the same folks, and come on to stir things up...I mean, it's funny to, how every time something hits the water, as soon as it exits Africa, everyone wants to scream fish. When ya back it up with data you can post and show me...then I listen...and I am not talking 'model consensus" either.


I trust you, Storm and I thoroughly enjoy your well crafted updates and insight. I appreciate all of your hard work and the fact that you present a rational alternative to the NHC.
Quoting SLU:
Pre-Earl?



we could see 96L out of this one if i'm correct.
Hey Storm W if the tropical wave off the coast of Africa becomes Earl do you think it was also go out to sea?
Anyone want to guess on the 11 am advisory? I'd say 65 mph 994 mb pressure.
Impressive

3134. mbjjm
Convection fully wrapped around the center, but a little spotty on the eastern side of the system.






Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Not a relocation. Late last night, 12am EST or so, it appeared that the center was being pulled WSW into the convection. Without visible confirmation though, that's a tough call, especially with a cloud canopy such as Danielle's. MIMIC was old at the time as well and suggested nothing. MIMIC & Visible this morning that it indeed was sucked into the convection and is presently working on a complete eye wall.


Okay, that makes a little more sense thanks for clarifying.
I would say they go to 70 mph with a pressure of 990
StormW,

Never read your synopsis before, just hated clicking around to other sites, but I gotta say, this mornings readings while sippin on my coffee was about the best reading I've had yet! Thank you to keeping an open mind on the "machine" that we have working over the US and into the Atl. if this don't work together, N may be out of the directional pattern. THANKS AGAIN, GREAT WRITEUP, LOOK FORWARD TO IT EVERYDAY NOW! Thank You
3138. smuldy
Quoting Neapolitan:


Again, this is because we adults share this forum with a lot of first- and second-graders; they get their feelings hurt when someone attempts to reason with them, and they start hitting the minus button, the ignore link, or--more and more frequently--the red exclamation button. It's to be expected; I'm sure they throw the same red-faced, floor-banging, door-kicking, breath-holding temper tantrum every time their mommy and daddy tell them to brush their teeth or go to bed.

By the way, if this doesn't apply to you, the reader, you won't be bothered by it. If you are bothered by it, well, we likely already knew you would be... ;-)
very last post today;
reported! lol j/k
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone want to guess on the 11 am advisory? I'd say 65 mph 994 mb pressure.


I'd surely agree with that seeing the center under the canopy, May see a Hurricane later today if indeed shear subsides.
I did have the pleasure of working on both the Gemini and Apollo projects for NASA subcontractors and am proud to have been involved in the technology that came from those projects. All things considered, Mother Nature will behave as she damn well pleases. Keep up the great work.

Sir it was your generation that did the pioneering work that gave us these fine tools for increasing our knowledge perhaps beyound where your generation even imagined in the 50's and 60's. You actually did something to contribute to every discussion that will ever take place here and every forcast that will ever be given again. I see most of these hypesters that constantly post their "forcast" using the tools that people like you help build. I apprecitate pro's like StormW and Dr. Masters giving us their time. Millions of people visit this site each year to learn important information about these storms. I hope the resourse in continued.
Thank you.
Impressive

Well, on the model output, the pressure was 994mb.

The pressure on the earlier advisory was 997mb.
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


GRIP Website
3145. SLU
Quoting tropicfreak:


Very impressive sat pic. Convection is beginning to wrap around the center.


Yep
Wow that tropical wave coming off Africa is mighty impressive.
Quoting surfmom:
Interesting forecast/observation from the Surfer Perspective - This guy is also seeing what Stillwaiting mentioned in an earlier post.
AURASURF/MICAH WEAVER/swfl GOMEX
Some junky knee high waves on local beach today. Maybe bigger elsewhere but I doubt it buoy is only 2ft as of now. Very rainy last night and over 2 inches fell here in St Pete. There is a 1009mb low in the gulf that will strengthen and torque a little bit so all you kids will go back to school with waves at the beach... Come on you can't skip the first day of school to go surfing. Hahaha. Respect your elders. Tuesday will be 'ol fart surfing day'. Looks waist high from the SW and choppy on Tuesday as that low starts to move N. Still a bump left for Wednesday: knee to thigh. Kids can surf after school.
Ahhh el Atlantico... starting to come to life. Looks like a pattern change in the long run.. Seems a little early but tons of east flow starting Friday. Kinda back door front looking as the whole ATL gets NE wind later in the period. Maybe we will get cooler breezy WX here in FL. Too bad the EC is going to be all choppy for this next swell. PR is gonna get the goods. East swell will go NE and be met by light SE winds so Next weekend looks real good down on the Isla del Encanto.
Have a good one!


:P yeah surfs up this weekend i just hope it dosnt get to big lol!
I sure understand your frustration, Storm. I know next to nothing about nothing. On the other hand, I don't pretend to forcast. The only thing I can add is a sometimes humorous comment, and try not to do it when y'all have an actual storm to talk about. That may be 'lame', but life without something to laugh about is worse.

I deeply appreciate your time and expertise, and the generosity of all the experts on the board. Just being able to ask questions of the folks who know what they are talking about is a real gift. I am not seeing as many of them as I used to, and that distresses me.

There's been a lot of verbal abuse on here this year. MUCH more than I've ever seen, and I understand the desire to limit the ability to post based on the lack of sense that's been demonstrated. I'd hate to not be able to ask the questions, tho.

Thanks again for your patience and your blog which I always read, even when I don't understand all of it! :-)
65-70 mph is a good bet.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive



Developing Hurricane..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
65-70 mph is a good bet.



it looks like an eye is trying to pop out there
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Morning! Shouldn't be too long before an eye pops out on visible, we might have Hurricane Danielle before the day's up.
Low just N the Azores this morning has a decent subtropical feed (see: Link

and with the help of digging upper trof to its NW and an amplifying jet should bomb out over Ireland and the UK late Wednesday thru Friday. But as Michael Fish? said years ago: "it won't be a hurricane" :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone want to guess on the 11 am advisory? I'd say 65 mph 994 mb pressure.


i don't know about that at this rate of strengthening and looking at the sat pic id say 70 mph strong TS.
3157. smuldy
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive

Impressive, most impressive, but you are not a hurricane yet.

Night all
3158. SLU
You don't see such a powerful looking wave along the African Coast everyday.

Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like the long awaited turn to the west finally materialized. It had to...the ridging was fairly strong due north of it.

The NHC's cone is of course smoothed, so Danielle will move south of the cone until around 45-50W then curve back towards the cone as the forecast weakness materializes.

It also appears they're a little slow with the forward motion. Probably will be reconciled at the 11AM update.

I'm still interested to see how far south and west this thing gets while the ridging is strong.

Quoting smuldy:
Impressive, most impressive, but you are not a hurricane yet.

Night all


Night all? lol

Where are you from?
Danielle GOT HER NEW FRIEND EARL RIGHT BACK OF HER SOON..
3162. Bayside
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think NASA has a different study going on this summer. That may be it?


I think my father metioned being involved in this. I can't remember the details but for some reason I feel like they were flying out of Houston. Will see if I can get some more info. Think he is heading down there next week.
Ill go out on a limb and say that this will be a depression in 48 hours. It has that look.

Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hi. I have a question, but in PGI34L, what does PGI stand for? Also I found a site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/tc_home2.cgi and looked in the archive, but there's no 01L.PGI01L, 02L, 03L, ..., 15L.PGI15L. Can somebody explain why?

Pouch Guidance Investigation
PREDICT DAY 1 (Next 24 hours) Outlook:

PGI30L difficult to track in most ensemble members. Only a
handful of members are still following the system; most others
detect larger circulation values away from the system. The
ensemble suggests a slower rate of intensification for Danielle
over the next day. Almost all members keep the system below TC
strength during the period. PGI34L emerges from the lateral
boundaries as a fairly significant circulation and 30% of
members with OW values greater than 2. As I stated above, I do
not put much faith in this forecast due to its initial position.
The circulation over the Gulf and Florida shows little change
in strength or position.
Quoting mbjjm:
Convection fully wrapped around the center, but a little spotty on the eastern side of the system.








Even Cat 1's have that issue so it is not surprising.
3168. Relix
Pre-Earl will be the one to watch for us in the islands. Looks mighty dangerous.
IT SURE DOESNT HAVE THE DEFINED SIGNATURE THAT DANIELLE HAD..MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Ill go out on a limb and say that this will be a depression in 48 hours. It has that look.



Already at 10% per NHC so it isn't out of the question.
Quoting RufusBaker:
potential 96L will also be a fish probably. I hate it when storms turn north out to sea Jeeez no excitement.
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TWO FISH STORMS
3172. smuldy
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Night all? lol

Where are you from?
Miami Beach, land of 5am last call; and after watching the clip from empire that i just wrongly quoted i need to crash, its almost 10am and need to be up for work by 4.
MY NEW TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO.
Models all showing wave behind Danielle (future Earl) will not affect the CONUS either. Looks like the Cape Verdes storms this year are destined for Bermuda or the fish. Too many troughs.
not so fast on this one jason it will be much weaker...we have to watch this one close...this could get into the caribbean..
Danielle is developing along nicely. Already has an eye wall developing.
Shear is 15-25 knots over PGI34L so any significant development would take place in the 24-48 hour timeframe which is when shear is forecast to drop some.
3178. surfmom
Quoting mrpuertorico:


:P yeah surfs up this weekend i just hope it dosnt get to big lol!


Yes, Danielle will be leaving you her dance card....LuckyMAN, those initial waves would be out of my league for sure..I'd have to wait for the left overs.
I'm curious about waves/surf in PR - are you near Rincon or Isabella ? - wondered what the wind and wave height will be....do you have a suggestion for a good local surf site to check this out? (WUmail me)
Quoting Progster:
Low just N the Azores this morning has a decent subtropical feed (see: Link

and with the help of digging upper trof to its NW and an amplifying jet should bomb out over Ireland and the UK late Wednesday thru Friday. But as Michael Fish? said years ago: "it won't be a hurricane" :)


Link

Yes...

(There was a mix-up due to Floyd in 1987.)
Quoting troy1993:
Hey Storm W if the tropical wave off the coast of Africa becomes Earl do you think it was also go out to sea?

I don't think so it will go further westward and souther than Danielle.
No Jason, we are not going to have two fish storms.
There's a chance that PGI34L, if it were to develop, will dissipate in the CATL after some time.

We'll see what happens.
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??
tropic freak good surfing weather thats about it...
Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??


Excellent surfing conditions.
Too many troughs I SEE ABOUT SIX MORE BIG TROUGHS ON THE EAST COAST OF USA FOR NEXT THREE WEEKS.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Excellent surfing conditions.


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?
3188. SLU
Certainly developing into a hurricane.

i dont know about 6 jason but it will sure have ansay so on the storms that develop off the coast of africa..
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Models all showing wave behind Danielle (future Earl) will not affect the CONUS either. Looks like the Cape Verdes storms this year are destined for Bermuda or the fish. Too many troughs.


Thats way to far out.
Quoting Chucktown:


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.

Sadly, this is so true. When I try to talk to ppl about hurricanes, they say that they do remember it is hurricane season but nothing will happen here. Oh the fools that forget about HUGO!
Quoting tropicfreak:


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?


If the remarkable model consensus and the NHC track were to verify...yes
i agree storm chaser and it will be a much weaker system...it will take time to get its act together...not ruling out a caribbean storm..
3197. surfmom
Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??
Quoting katrinakat5:
tropic freak good surfing weather thats about it...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Excellent surfing conditions.


should clean-up well, but... I think the initial waves will be as Aurasurf called it: "Too bad the FL EC is going to be all choppy for this next swell. PR is gonna get the goods. East swell will go NE and be met by light SE winds so Next weekend looks real good down on the Isla del Encanto."

nevertheless -- I know a lot of surfers are smiling and waxing their boards
Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??

hopefully, we could use some nice swell here
3199. surfmom
Quoting tropicfreak:


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?


PRAYERS UP^^^^^^^
lol@jeff
Quoting Bayside:


I think my father metioned being involved in this. I can't remember the details but for some reason I feel like they were flying out of Houston. Will see if I can get some more info. Think he is heading down there next week.


Ok. Thanks. :) I'm all for learning more about these things. There's a man who chases tornadoes I think he has a show on Discovery?? Anyway, he placed his doppler truck into the path of Jeanne, I believe, in 2004. He recorded wind bursts (whatever he called them) that were from the hurricane itself. After viewing the damage he figured out they were not from tornadoes as previously thought. The way a tornado can level one house and not the other right next door. I had heard something of this after Rita. Which made perfect sense to me. Because that's exactly what happened on our street. Our home and my late mother-in-law's property across the street were the only ones destroyed. Maybe someone was trying to tell us something. Lol. Anyway, ALL of the damage, trees, poles, debris, etc. was going due south. I really didn't start learning about hurricanes until 2008. But was surprised that they hadn't known that until 2004. So much we still don't know. But am hopeful they can learn more on their mission.
wow danielle has intensified a bit more than what was forecast I think it will be a cat 1 storm around the 11pm advisory rather than 2 days from now, i think it has a good chance to become the first major atlantic storm this season.
Tropical Storm DANIELLE will have winds up to 70 mph at 11am????
I don't consider an extratropical storm which hits the UK a fish.
Eye feature more visible with each new frame.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Eye feature more visible with each new frame.



Is there a link to where this image came from?
Why isn't that ULL to the north and west of Danielle depicted on this map?
Where's Dr. Masters? He's not following his usual schedule.

WideWVLoop

And where's Patrap? Levi and Drak are probably at school...Geeze!
3211. surfmom
Quoting 757weather:

hopefully, we could use some nice swell here

It's a blessing when we get surf from a FishStorm - Guilt free WAVES!!! this sadly doesn't happen much in the Gomex -- there's always someone hurting from the hit & I feel bad that what made my pleasure caused another grief and trouble.

Still Pouring here in SRQ - got to go check my bandit suburban Hens ...yesterday Fried chicken - today if this rain continues I may need to get them a raft or life jackets.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Eye feature more visible with each new frame.




That was quick..
Danielle is closing in on 40W very quickly and only about 15N when it gets there.

It will be interesting to see whether this new position is merely due to center relocation and a track parallel to the existing points or whether it is a relocation and course change.

3216. gator23
Quoting smuldy:
Miami Beach, land of 5am last call; and after watching the clip from empire that i just wrongly quoted i need to crash, its almost 10am and need to be up for work by 4.

the irony here is that across the bay there is no last call. During the super bowl the N.O. Times-Picuyne was talking garbage about a 2am last call... We dont have a 2am last call in Miami Beach and there is no time where alcohol has to stop being served in the City of Miami.We have after hours clubs that close at 10am
nothing to worry about chicklit you need to start turning your attention to the eastern gom where a surface low may form in the next 48-72 hours and move west...ssts are very warm still in the upper 80s..
out to sea..
Quoting CycloneUK:
I don't consider an extratropical storm which hits the UK a fish.


It's all relative, don't ya know!
3220. help4u
Some things from this season,negative NAO,positive MJO,lower shear and warm SST,equal fish storms.
Quoting DestinJeff:


That is a Surface Analysis.


It is very interesting that an upper level low can be spinning inside of a surface high.
3223. Relix
Close to 15N and 40W. For folks in the islands remember our danger zone is 15N and 50W so we are pretty safe from this beautiful lady. She's about 35 miles south of her forecast points.
Quoting katrinakat5:
nothing to worry about chicklit you need to start turning your attention to the eastern gom where a surface low may form in the next 48-72 hours and move west...ssts are very warm still in the upper 80s..



Danielle looks a lot fiercer at present than the eastern GOM...but will keep an eye out! lol thanks.
I think you are thinking of Josh Worman with the doppler truck that sat through the Hurricane. He is on discovery tornado chasers
Quoting Relix:
Pre-Earl will be the one to watch for us in the islands. Looks mighty dangerous.
a or so ago, some of the model runs had that "pre Earl" run much futher south and west. Is that what you're referring to?
Interesting that it is south of its forecast points so quickly, but I don't think we should read too much into that. The TPC has a really good track record once they get a well-developed LLC.
Just some humor for everyone...
Why say fish storm arent all these storms fish storms because the form in the ocean? How about instead of yelling fish storm perhaps we should be yelling "land storm" when a storm starts to look like its heading to land? rofl! sorry just had to break all the tension
danielle is going out to sea a few hundred miles east of bermuda...however,danielle will rock bermuda with some large swells...
Quoting DestinJeff:


all kidding aside ... I enjoy your commentary 100% of the time.


Thanks. Danielle appears to be coming under the influence of the second of the two highs to the NW of it and is accelerating some as a result. That would also account in part for the improvement we have seen in the last few hours and the flatter track.

At this rate we will likely have a hurricane by 5 today.
Notice something here, how the center dissipated at the end of the convection, the NHC should relocate the center where the eye is at. Remember we were tracking the center to the east of all that convection last night, not it has relocated inside the convection and popped an eye. This should make a more westward motion for a while, since it has relocated a bit more to the west, going by obs.
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


I believe NOAA has acquired a Global Hawk drone that was designed by Teledyne Ryan (now part of Northrop Grumman Corp)located by Lindberg Field in San Diego. The Global Hawk was designed for long endurances and is usually flying at 60,000 Feet or so. It has been flown from California to Australia non-stop in a demo to the Australian military.

Also, some very different and really interesting graphics from Stormchaser - good job! Do you have the link to the color EUMETSAT image that you can share?

And I am looking for a good pressure gradient map for the US, stretching across the Atlantic and Caribbean. One that is easy to read, so as to make it simple to identify the High (Ridge) Pressure and Low (Trough) Pressure systems graphically for forecasting purposes.

Got any ideas, links, anyone?

Thanks
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Tropical Storm DANIELLE FISH STORM 100% AND NEXT INVEST 96L BOTH FISH STORMS.


That's an awfully high statement. Here's my take: Danielle is still a little up in the air on track, and as for the wave behind, it's future track is looking west, for now.


Hi Kman, at least Danielle will not be entering your territory!
Quoting reedzone:
Notice something here, how the center dissipated at the end of the convection, the NHC should relocate the center where the eye is at. Remember we were tracking the center to the east of all that convection last night, not it has relocated inside the convection and popped an eye. This should make a more westward motion for a while, since it has relocated a bit more to the west, going by obs.


The center never dissipated.

It moved west under the convection.
3236. SeaMule
wasn't Andrew a fish storm?
3238. bird72
Quoting surfmom:


Yes, Danielle will be leaving you her dance card....LuckyMAN, those initial waves would be out of my league for sure..I'd have to wait for the left overs.
I'm curious about waves/surf in PR - are you near Rincon or Isabella ? - wondered what the wind and wave height will be....do you have a suggestion for a good local surf site to check this out? (WUmail me)



http://www.surfrider.org/rincon/index.php
Four more named storms
and then the big "I" forms
Quoting luv2bake:
I think you are thinking of Josh Worman with the doppler truck that sat through the Hurricane. He is on discovery tornado chasers


Oh ok. That must be him. Thanks. :) I know that other guy Reed went through Rita. Interesting video I saw of that but not a lot of actual storm footage because it was night of course.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The center never dissipated.

It moved west under the convection.


Ohh.. dang it moved that fast.. Interesting storm.
3243. Relix
Quoting Clearwater1:
a or so ago, some of the model runs had that "pre Earl" run much futher south and west. Is that what you're referring to?

Yeah. It's also very low at the moment. First trough may give it a slight North nudge but since it's so weak maybe won't feel a thing. Now the second trough may allow it to move northward a tad bit more (same that will catch Danielle) so it's up in the air.

Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.
Quoting mrpuertorico:
Just some humor for everyone...
Why say fish storm arent all these storms fish storms because the form in the ocean? How about instead of yelling fish storm perhaps we should be yelling "land storm" when a storm starts to look like its heading to land? rofl! sorry just had to break all the tension


That ship already sailed!
I've heard the term "fish storm" on CNN, FOX, and TWC. But it started here on this blog a few yeears ago, as far as I remember..
Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.

Can you document? Thanks.
Quoting reedzone:


Ohh.. dang it moved that fast.. Interesting storm.


Yeah. I was very surprised by how quickly it relocated.

Should be an interesting 11am discussion.
As of today, I see no threats to the US. Anyone disagree?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah. I was very surprised by how quickly it relocated.

Should be an interesting 11am discussion.


Interesting one indeed, thanks.
Quoting caneswatch:


That's an awfully high statement. Here's my take: Danielle is still a little up in the air on track, and as for the wave behind, it's future track is looking west, for now.


Actually, GFS takes the next wave and pulls it quickly north and well east of Danielle. Too soon to determine its track, but early guidance keeps it well into the eastern Atlantic and barely gets past 40 W before weakening.

Link
3253. BFG308
Maybe for a "land storm" we should call it a "mammal storm."

Danielle is looking much healthier...let's see if she can crank it up a notch today!
3254. Relix
Quoting Chicklit:
Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.

Can you document? Thanks.


Sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

In the last few visible frames you can see it changing from maybe 290-295 to a more westward track. May just be a wobble but if you activate Forecast Points it's definitely south of them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Water vapor shows this movement better. SLIGHT EDIT: Maybe 285 movement is more accurate.
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE SYNOPSIS AUGUST 23, 2010 ISSUED 9:15 A.M.


Storm, a season or two ago, it seemed when a storm recurved in the Atlantic, regardless where, if another storm formed shortly after, it seemed to follow in the "wake" of the previous storm. Is this normally the case, or is each storm independent of the prior, at least in track. When you get a chance, maybe you can respond. Thanks
3256. Bayside
Oh, my mistake this is the project my father was talking about...GRIP which stands for : "Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes" experiment . Link
Quoting surfmom:


Yes, Danielle will be leaving you her dance card....LuckyMAN, those initial waves would be out of my league for sure..I'd have to wait for the left overs.
I'm curious about waves/surf in PR - are you near Rincon or Isabella ? - wondered what the wind and wave height will be....do you have a suggestion for a good local surf site to check this out? (WUmail me)

Surf line is a great surfers website i use it also to follow storms and waves and coldfronts besides this blog and no i dont live on the paradise side of PR i live in the San Juan metroplex and my surf spots have changed since i graduated from univeristy (less time) and also i am a bodyboarder so my choices are mostly beach breaks just because there are less boarders i do enjoy the southern side at this time of year with the tropical waves coming up rincon is better during the winter months but i dont get out there at all.
Quoting reedzone:


Interesting one indeed, thanks.


Not only that but how quickly overnight it developed a nearly full eyewall and now the eye is popping out. (post 3205)
Quoting Relix:
Close to 15N and 40W. For folks in the islands remember our danger zone is 15N and 50W so we are pretty safe from this beautiful lady. She's about 35 miles south of her forecast points.


Some of the difference is likely due to the NHC showing a smooth curve to the cone, as opposed to the more abrupt turn which is more likely.

She's moving faster than they forecasted too, though they'll change that at 11AM
NEW BLOG
By the way, SAB put Danielle at 3.5 and TAFB put Danielle at 4.0 at 1145.
3265. SpFox
NEW BLOG!!!
Notice how models had one scenario one day, then yesterday they had another scenario, now back to the first scenario.. Models are still not in good confidence on what Danielle will do. Steering shows that she should go further west then head northwest after she catches the weakness off the East Coast, which may or may not steer her out to sea. Watch the models shift left again, not just because of the fast,westward movement, but because they are not really confident on what will happen.
NEW BLOG!!
While there is certainly an eye in there forming.

I think that some of this clearing that we're seeing is a dry slot that wrapped in the from west.

RGB Loop

Quoting Bayside:
Oh, my mistake this is the project my father was talking about...GRIP which stands for : "Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes" experiment . Link


Yep. That's the one I was thinking about. :)
I would like to point out the interesting phenomenon that is presently in the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

There is a surface Low that at the end of the trough that is exiting the east coast of the CONUS. It is rubbing up against a weak 1014 high pressure.

The eastern Gulf could go AOI within 24 hours!
3272. o22sail
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TWO FISH STORMS


Why do you hate fish so much? ;-)
I got a feeling that very soon Danielle will move SW for a short while in a few minutes I am just waiting for the 12Z surface map to come out
New Blog
Hello Storm,

Quick question for you. What is your outlook for September? do you see the pattern of troughs continuing to re curve storms out to sea or a building high pressure system posing more landfall threats?

Also, what is your take on potential TS Earl and it's track? Thanks
I'm watching the GoM blob. The lowest pressure I'm finding is 1010.7 just N of Tampa and offshore.
3277. 7544
i once herad max mayfield state that a strong strom can build their own high over them and go west and get harder to turn could this be happening with daniale
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here we go.

Cue Andrew track.


"I hate being right all the time.." Jeff Goldbloom. Can you feel it?
3279. hcubed
Quoting kanc2001:


exactly he's taking up the slack for JFV


Easier to spot, too - all 6 names he's used so far are variations of a theme.

And, remember - his change of names were not results of a ban, they're results of the use of ignore.
3280. 346carl
"I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??"

I'm missing an adjustable wrench and basic met science skills, but other than that...