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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression Six almost has its name

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2006

Tropical Depression Six is nearly a tropical storm, as evidenced by winds of 25-35 knots seen in this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). Visible satellite imagery shows an increase in curved low-level rain bands forming, and satellite estimates of the storm's strength already put it at minimal tropical storm strength (40 mph). The computer models all forecast that this storm will most likely pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although that is too far in the future to be confident of this forecast. The long-range GFS model forecast continues to show TD 6 becoming a powerful hurricane that threatens Bermuda, but recurves out to sea well east of the U.S. East Coast. Wind shear over the system is low, about 10 knots, but may increase a bit to 10-15 knots over the next two days. After that, wind shear should die down and a large anti-cyclone build over the storm, potentially allowing it to intensify into a hurricane. The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and may be slowing down the intensification of TD 6. As TD 6 grows, it should be able to absorb the remnants of 98L.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds from Monday morning, September 4 2006. Wind speed and direction are coded according to the standard station model, and are color coded (in knots) according to the color scale at the upper right (10 knots = 11.5 mph). Black winds barbs occur where there is rain, and one cannot trust the wind speeds measured in those areas. Tropical storm force winds (35 knots) are colored red, brown, or purple; one can see one red wind barb in TD 6.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
A strong new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Saturday and is a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave has a closed circulation, which can be seen on QuikSCAT imagery from this morning (Figure 1). The thunderstorm activity associated with the wave is limited and disorganized. The wave is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and has some potential for slow development over the next few days.

Caribbean tropical wave
The small tropical wave that moved into the Caribbean yesterday has become much less organized and is no longer a threat to develop. The remains of "Invest 99L" can be seen on the QuikSCAT image from this morning (Figure 1) as a small area of black wind barbs (which denote rain) between South America and Hispaniola. There are a few yellow wind barbs in there, representing winds of 20-25 knots. The wind barbs mostly point the same way, with only a small change in wind direction in the wave. This is the sign of a weak tropical wave. A sharp change in wind direction occurs in strong tropical waves, with this strong wind shift eventually amplifying into a complete circular rotation if the wave develops into a tropical depression.

John is dead
The remains of Hurricane John are about 2/3 of the way up the Baja Peninsula, and will spread heavy rains of up to 1-3 inches into Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas over the next few days. John destroyed many roads and took the roofs off of at least 150 houses in Mexico's Baja.

Typhoon Ioke
Typhoon Ioke is now barely a typhoon, with top winds of 75 mph. Ioke is caught in a large trough of low pressure that is weakening it and recurving it out to sea. Ioke is not a threat to any land.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. Have a good Labor Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Beached Boat
Beached Boat
We had some gusty winds from the remains of Ernesto. This boat broke from its mooring sometime last night and was pushed ashore at Third Beach in Middletown, RI.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

How is this an El Nino year? The pacific is a little warmer than average, sure. It's active too. That doesn't mean this is an El Nino year though. Did i miss an NHC update or news post that this is an Official El Nino year?
wow...its a mad house in here tonight
Oh, on my lists, I forgot Tropical Depression Two in 1994; that is five in one year (including three in a row).
1006. SEFL
Posted By: dewfree at 5:32 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
quite simply it should be flagged so that the peson responsible for this blog can take action against the perpetrator.it is such an offence to those here and those going to be here and to the person for whitch this blog belongs to .Shame on you and hope you dont get jail time over it .

Dewfree, take a deep breath. AN NHC forecaster is a government employee, not a government official. This isn't the Weather Channel. The guy is embarrassed...don't try to make a crime out of it.
code=AniS.class>
1009. fire635
I did hear that the El Nino affect was more intense than orginally thought... I also heard that as the year progresses, El Nino is forcast to become even more intense. That means a colder and wetter winter for FL this year if the forcast holds true.
its not official...but Don Noe (met. in miami) was hinting this might be an el nino year
Posted By: spindlebeak at 9:35 PM GMT on September 04, 2006.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

Here is a link for all the ignoramuses who think they are smarter than supercomputers and trained meterologists.

It aint going to hit Florida!


We have been noting the GFDL track, did you look at it? pink line with triangles, looked like it is leading to Florida.
Gray's most recent update:

We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Nio-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific.
Well, in my opinion, no one is right here. To all of you people saying it's not going to hit the U.S., who's to say it won't?! Same goes for those people who say it is going to hit the U.S.! I think we need to be talking about where this is going to be in no more than 3 days time, and how strong it is going to be.
seminolesfan- Good post, however I think everyone wants to play out in the Twilight Zone beyond 120 hours. Your observation do bring into question if the 20/50 rule would apply to this storm. The fact is, no one can be sure of what this storm will do in the next 24-48 hours, much less 5 days.
Hey JP,
What do you think of the disturbance off of the East FL Coast? I saw in the Tropical Outlook better rain chances for Central FL or could it develop??
1018. Patrap
..this iz creepy..like a bad accident on the highway..with no exit..LOL
dont count 99L out quite yet either
I think it was better when we were all catatonic..
Wow...I don't even know what else to say so i'll type it again...WOW!!!

My opinion... making a fake post and attributing it to official forecasters is not cool. But so it is making the molehill into a mountain. Good thing no one freaks about all the fake urban legend emails about AIDs infected needles in movie theaters and gasoline pumps, eh?

It's not a big deal to verify any of the above in a mere few seconds, right? This blog is NOT the official source of news, so why freak out about it? One should always have more than
one source to verify from.

;-)

Be excellent to each other.
LoneGunman,

You can post all the hypotheticals about what he could have/might have/someone else might do, but all he did was say a depression, and a very unorginized one at that, was dissapating so Taz would shut up. You post about someone saying a major hurricane is turning or some crap is irrelavent for 1)because MichealSTL would never do that 2)people shouldnt be coming here for NHC info 3)If people are coming here for NHC info they deserve to be misinformed. And even if soem did read that and thought TD6 went away and it real does blow up into a hurricane then they will still hear about it in the next week. So please, get off your high horse and stop being so politically correct.

IMO, you're comparing someone shouting fire in open field with like 4 ppl around to shouting fire in a crowded building. There's no chance for someone to be hurt from MichealSTL fake post, which he said was fake right away, so dont make hypotheticals about how it could hurt someone. You can make any situation a dangerous one.
shutdown...
BTW, if any cares, TD6 looks like crap. I just saw Joe B on CNN, and he was surprising reserved about TD6's future. He said TD6 and former invest 98L interacting with each other and one will be absorbed. He said once that happens we should get a pretty good storm, but it wasent his ussual gloom-and-doom scenario.
Ah ha! there is still someone here!
on a nice post i just saw the 15 yearold wheather guy on local new in sf .the guy from hurricane warning 1 . hes doing a graet job . good luck guy.

as for td6 it will be better organized tomorow . and i belive we see rapid intense in two days . does remind me of andrew thogh
I was kinda liking the raggedy gonna get ripped apart theory that was floating around, guess we will just have to wait and see.
Man, I've been doing to much college work today - my last post had so many gramatical errors its rediculous.

Anyways, if you were only looking at TD6 from IR or WV, you'd think it was an open wave. Really cant see much of a surface circulation on visable either so dont expect this to do much in the next day or two. IMO, it has the potential to become a TS tommarrow if it can absorb former 98L and get away from the upper trough/shear axis that is currently north of it. If it survives the next 24 hours or so and gets tucked under the upper ridge like progged then we can really see if these intensity forecasts verifty.
1031. GoofOff
If you look at the water vapor loop on the NHC site, TO6 looks like it is in real trouble from the trough north of it. It does not appear to have any circulation left and seems that it is getting pretty well stripped. I am not saying it will disappear or making any prediction about its future. Compared to yesterday, it looks to be much weaker.
1032. GoofOff
should be "TD6"
did anyone notice that applet? I had to uninstall my java before I could post lol
I know some of us were on here this morning talking about how 06 was gonna ingest old 98L; I knew it would disturb 06 somewhat but not to the extent that it has. Is this a combination of the mid-level shear and pair of coc's double-teaming 06?
Should we expect the coc's to merge or are we waiting for convection to refire, as we approach the diurnal max?
Question part 3: If we are waiting on convection should we be looking for a coc shift like w/ Ernesto and 06 earlier today?
llc is hard to see on water vapor loop

imho
1036. GoofOff
Also, it is most noticable on the Central Atlantic water vapor loop which is updated every 30 minutes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
all I see is a sqaure blob of clouds, nothing other than that.
well, before I dumped by java to post here, I thought TD6 looked fine. Of course you have the trough and remnant 98 being blown up and over on the right adding to the confusion but the depression to me looks close to a storm. The 50k winds make it look bad now but that will end up being an outflow imho. It is organizing well for its environment imho.
1039. GoofOff
xpress,

agree, but it looks like the fuel (water) it needs to form is being carried away.
the last time I looked was an hour ago. Someone posted a pic here that was an applet and it froze the post box. YOu cant have java and post, or at least that is what I ran into.

anyhow, I'll install it again and check it out. An hour ago, the convection over td6 looked fine. the noise around it ( winds blowing convection up and 98 around it) is not that important imho. I'll go check it out again.
goofoff-water carried away as outflow to the NE?
1042. Gatorx
Hi Guys-

Everyone was kicked off the blog - go in to your control panel and uninstall your Java and then you can post again.
1043. SEFL
"If they failed to prepare because of a faked NHC release I'd be willing to bet that the person who authored that release would have some explaining to do to various government agencies, but hey it's only to prove a point right?"

You GREATLY overestimate the importance of this blog in the world of hurricane preparation.
longisx-u running ie or firefox?
firefox for me and no java issues, that applet doesn't work, but I'm posting just fine.
evening all
1048. Gatorx
seafarer459

Good evening..we are experiencing technical difficulities...not many regulars on right now.
1049. GoofOff
seminolesfan,
yes. It looks like the trough, even though it is not real strong is carrying moisture away faster than TD6 can gather it. Just my opinion though.
googoff, I think it does look a bit "depressed" for a depression, but it at least can pick up some moisture from remnant 98. I cant believe I had to uninstall Java to post here! I had to reinstall it to see the loop then uninstall it again to post lol. There's an applet running in the blog!
Gatorx,
Yeah, but it sure is peaceful.
seminolesfan,
1st question part, not sure really. Could be, but there is suficient distance to allow development. OTOH you'll often hear, convection in the ITCZ is inhibiting inflow, so perhpas some convection with the old disturbance is hurting this sytem.

2)Problem with this system isn't little convection as you would see at minimum, if it was that we'd be in good shape for development. The structure just is very poor. I can barely and have been barely able to see a lcc all day.I still don't know what the NHC was seeing this morning to be honest.

3)Very likely if we get a big area of convection that persist. Often the convective areas spin up something. Still w/o the general organization I am unsure of intensification in the next 12 hrs.
It works!!
1054. Gatorx
It is peaceful...but I'm missin my homies...
1055. KRL
This blog really needs to be monitored better.

Plus Dr. Masters should only allow real meteorologists to post forecast info on here.

What a clown fest it's becoming recently.

LOL
did u guys loose conection
Long live the blog
hi guys any thing new on deppression 6?
FINALLY!
I dont think the LLC is that hard to find. Its between remnant 98 and the trough blow off and was visible a few times during the day.


/

IF you think of that line as the storm's form, the llc is right in the middle.

ALl imho
my toolbar is still messed up!!

What was with magic's Java post? Once you're on that page yer stuck. Can't even spam it.
I'VE HAD PLENTY OF EVERYONE'S BS FOR TDAY.

To those of you that know me, I really tried to be productive and add info to the blog today.

To those of you that don't know me, I really tried to be productive and add info to the blog today for your benefit.

EVERYONE ENJOY THE GAME;

GO NOLES!!!!;


F-L-O-R-I-D-A S-T-A-T-E

(For those that don't know...It's one of our fight songs/chants; we do it so the sorority girls know how to spell the school name!!!)
Good evening everyone. I have not been able to post on here something is or was messed up.
finally
THE MIAMI HURRICANES HAVE A CHANCE TO BEAT THE SEMINOLES TONIGHT ...CARVED IN STONE
what was that image of (please dont repost)
What happened, I don't notice anything different, but everybody is talking about an JAVA incident.
there was somethng with an image you couldn't get past it
A little late... the blog was messed up:

Posted By: magicfan1423 at 4:37 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.
How is this an El Nino year? The pacific is a little warmer than average, sure. It's active too. That doesn't mean this is an El Nino year though. Did i miss an NHC update or news post that this is an Official El Nino year?


Gray's most recent update:

We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Nio-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific.
1072. SEFL
Posted By: KRL at 6:37 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
This blog really needs to be monitored better.

Plus Dr. Masters should only allow real meteorologists to post forecast info on here.

What a clown fest it's becoming recently.

LOL

If you want a serious tropical weather blog try www.flhurricane.com it is monitored and trolls get the boot quickly (as some who post here know!)
The previous page should have a Java applet in it that has nothing below it (a large gray box with a red X in the corner, like a bod iamge).
txweather-thank you for the info, I really do appreiciate the people that are more knowledgable than myself. Have fun w/ the circus.
so can someone tell me what the secret to the chat is? It won't load it runs all the stuff and then sits on waiting for message forever, I have the latest version of flash but no go still.

TD6: 35mph-1005mb-16.9N 43.8W
99L: 25mph-1009mb-14.8N 73.6W


did you here what mike lyons said??

2. i have java installed and it still doesnt work
1078. Gatorx
Thank you magicfan for screwing up this blog for the past hour..nice really nice
1079. Alec
THE MIAMI HURRICANES HAVE A CHANCE TO BEAT THE SEMINOLES TONIGHT ...CARVED IN STONE

Carved in onion skin!LOL
Thanks Palm Harbor.
Michaelstl, Use 1983 that the ultamely Elnino year, though we did have a major hurricane hit, we only had 4 storms, and depressionn or 2 I think(I don't count depressions when I rank seasons so I don't include them in anyway). 1983 was the calmest year since 1960.
1081. Gatorx
seminolesfan-
its gonna be a family bloodbath with Jr fighting with Sr. Good Luck only until you play UF.
sefl-yeah, flhurricane.com is REALLY good.

Prob. my fav.
1083. Gatorx
Now back to the weather...what is happening to the wave behind TD 6 that would be Gordon..I've been hearin Flo-Go all day- Is is twins or not?
1085. IKE
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 5:45 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.

TD6: 35mph-1005mb-16.9N 43.8W
99L: 25mph-1009mb-14.8N 73.6W


Is 99L still alive? Apparently so.
seminolesfan, I don't know much, but I did stay in a holiday in last night:)
The El Nino in 1983 was a lot stronger than the one in the early 90's and it also was outside the current active period (which probably actually begun in the late 1980s; the sudden increase in activity from 1994 to 1995 was because 1991-1994 had a long El Nino and 1995 had a La Nina, which enchances activity.
1088. Gatorx
walrusiam -

have some class man...thats offensive
Alec-LMAO

Gatorx-Yeah, Jr. ain't no joke, Sr. better watch out.....dont want last yr's result...again.
1090. IKE
I disabled java...but only installed it when I was using firefox.

Does another java come with IE?

How did that applet happen?
tx-musta been an 'express'!!!
1092. GoofOff
PalmHarbor --
When you get to the bottom of the blog, you have to refresh the page to continue following it.
1093. Gatorx
How did that applet happen?

I think when magicfan posted his/hers grapic
You can post a lot of stuff in these blogs, including Java and Flash applets; however, if the code is incorrect, it can mess things up (a good idea to preview when you try to post Java or Flash). Actually, there is no real reason to try to post a Java applet; it just doesn't work.
BRAND NEW ANIMATIONS from CycloneOz

Tropical Depression 6 - GOES Infrared Animation - Current to 9/4/2006 1245Z

and

Tropical Depression 6 - GOES Water Vapor Animation - Current to 9/4/2006 1345Z

The depression is still of to the east a bit of the GOES imagery...but you'll get to see the weather patterns that will influence this system in the coming days.
SEFL--
Thanks for suggesting an alternative. There are some really smart and informative folks on this blog who've taught me a lot about hurricanes, including how much we really don;t know- how much is art as opposed to science. Unfortunately, these good folks are increasingly drowned out by yahoos of various descriptions who make it like having to sit in the midst of a wad of lively kindergardeners in order to hear the wisdom of the relative few.

The moderating is far more tolerant than I believe necessary-- way too much abuse, etc. I hate to leave but I can't figure a way to rid us of the yahoos (have you ever known a jerk to recognize and admit that he;s a jerk?) if the Mods don't pay far more attention. I'll check in from time to time but it just ain't fun here any more.

'Bye now...
--Bubba
java scripts are notorious backdoors for ie;
that's why firefox is more 'hacker proof';
It's almost like the applet crashed the whole JRE!!!
MichaelSTL, I know that, I just thought you were listing the el nino years. I didn't realize you were just doing the current active period.
it seems td 6 is moving more west lately and slowly picking up convection from remnant 98. The blow off from the trough will not be as damaging to the smaller storm.

All imho
1102. GoofOff
Walrusiam --
Take it someplace else. This blog is not the place for that.
1103. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:55 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.
You can post a lot of stuff in these blogs, including Java and Flash applets; however, if the code is incorrect, it can mess things up (a good idea to preview when you try to post Java or Flash). Actually, there is no real reason to try to post a Java applet; it just doesn't work.


I understand...there must be a Java that comes with IE. I don't remember installing it or my memory is bad.

TD5 looks sick. 99L looks better.
Anyone seen any 18Z model data yet besides the UKMET
Posted By: eye at 10:57 PM GMT on September 04, 2006.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Would you please stop coming on this blog to start crap.

1106. IKE
Posted By: walrusiam at 5:57 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.
'Bye now...
--Bubba

Abortion


What is your problem? Better yet...don't answer.
1107. IKE
I should have said TD6 looks sick.
I deleted my temporary files in Java. It seems to have worked.
18Z GFS is interesting.

Link
Good afternoon 27 windows
1111. Gatorx
I have to go...in the words of Nash...the "hiney" clowns are out in full force tonight..well Nash uses more colorful language but you get the drift...bye
The extended range GFS is showing it closer to the US than the 12z run.

Link
Hello Sandcrab, how are you?

1116. GoofOff
Posted By: usmcweathr at 7:02 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
18Z GFS is interesting.

Looks like we have a convoy. LOL
All fished out had a good day in the gulf caught lots of fish and a good sunburn.lol
1119. nrose6
TD 6 looks dead. really dead.


ive seen tropical waves that look better.
If you need Java you can download it at www.java.com. It is not part of windows or IE, big battle between Microsoft (activeX) and Sun (java). They are behaving like some of the people on this blog.
finally got that e-mail to mike lyons
1124. IKE
Posted By: nrose6 at 6:07 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.
TD 6 looks dead. really dead.


ive seen tropical waves that look better.


I agree. I think it's....RIP TD6.

The system south of PR...which I guess is still 99L...looks better...but

TD6 is probably downgraded soon.
TD 6 is not dead


Link


t-storms are makeing a come back see my link
1126. GoofOff
Now that all of Walrusiam's posts have been deleted, my question looks pretty bad out there by its self. LOL
1128. IKE
Posted By: GoofOff at 6:15 PM CDT on September 04, 2006.
Now that all of Walrusiam's posts have been deleted,


GOOD!
Hey all, back in Tallahassee after a 5 hour drive. I will be catching up on td6 and making my forecast on my site including my experimental track forecast by 8PM. I will be here on the blog too, but keep in mind I will be watching the FSU Miami game at the sametime starting at 8
This is one of the problems that TD6 is currently facing. 30-40 knots winds to the north.

shear
Lets try this again.

Link
Wow I hadn't checked on TD6 for a little while and it looks bad!! Dust mixed in w/ a little shear is my theory.

Any thoughts on surival/non-survival folks?
u think its gone?


prove to us why its gone? please?
It looks like a new center will form with 98L being the dominant feature. This is bad news since it will mean a track further south.
TD 6 is not gone STOP SAYING THAT


Link


IT IS NOT GONE LOOK AT THE LINK THERE ARE SOME NIC T-STORM POPING UP NOW IT IS NOT GONE
TD6 is not dead.. it has a well defined low level circulation as seen on shortwave IR images , although storms are sheared off to the NE, once the shear dies, it should come back. All the other depressions this year won the battle against shear and became named storms.Link
That thing near the Antilies Looks a bit more impressive on Visible than TD6 does...
FLhurricanechaser...I considered the same possibility. Still very early to tell although it might give "TD6" more of a chance down the road if it changed something, anything, because as I previously stated I think the current center was/is on it's way to fishland...
1141. GoofOff
Posted By: usmcweathr at 7:18 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
Also notice what has happened to the winds in TD6. It really got the wind taken out of its sails.


Dead my butt! TD6 has tropical storm-force winds in it!
Sandcrab, the fish sounds good, but the sunburn...ouch!
i think the fish could deal with this one
If you click that link, you can faintly see the dust that surrounds TD6 on both sides. Surely it has ingested a bit of that into its center. It can recover, but might take some time..

SEE THE DUST HERE
Its ok I caught snapper and 1 nice Lemon Fish and 3 King Mackeral. I may be burned but I can eat good.lol
Just wondering....I mean I know you're all fixated on the Atlantic, but does anyone else see a low forming south of the Fl. Panhandle?

What a trooper! I love to fish, wish I had more time, and a boat, to do it.
1150. GoofOff
TD6 looks like a very sick system to me. If it has a living will that prohibits life support, it is in big trouble.
If you had the boat you would have to get a divorce.lol I dont see anything other than interactions with the old front in South FL
since td6 could reform a little west and south of the current track, I'll make a call.If it does continue its transformation, Ft Pierce, cat2.
kyle, some do not see what you see, and they are trying to get ideas and are learning. Yes, the system will survive in one way or another, and many need to look at the big picture
1154. ebzz
I'm making 2 calls. Either it forms into a cat 3 and hits s. florida or dissipates, reforms, hits florida as a cat1.
The old front is exactly what I'm referring to.....sometimes a surface low can form off of an old front. I see a slight counterclockwise spin. Could be a low forming, or it could be my eyes playing tricks on me.
I bet its the same ppl who always say the storm is dead ... its kind of annoying
1157. ebzz
ihave27windows, are you talking about the one in the gulf? If so, I don't think it has enough time to form unless it goes west.
Yeah, I totally agree with y'all... S. FL landfall, then a GOM landfall...
Yeah, 27windows.. I just noticed that aswell... You could be onto something. ^_^
1160. aquak9
kyle2006...a fish storm can be a Cat 5. It just stays out there with the fishes, and never bothers anyone on land.
1161. PBG00
Hey all..the 18zgfs is crazy..what are the chances of fla dodging three bullets(assuming of course that they all become storms)totally hypothetical
ihave27windows...I believe that's upper level.

WATER VAPOR GOM
i see a strong ridge making this thing head for florida
I am talking about the Gulf.

Goes west or sits there and spins for a few days. It's happened before.

So, you do see a slight spin as well?
This is really silly - everyone is calling for a fish storm last night, then this morning everyone says it's probably going to make a U.S. landfall, then back to fish storm, now everyone's saying U.S. again! I've stuck with my opinion through and through - NO FISH STORM (although I wish it could be)!
1166. PBG00
Cat 1 or two is fine..Keep the majors away!
Cane, I wondered if it might be a ULL.....but, it just doesn't look like a ULL to me. It appears to be in it's infancy.
1168. PBG00
I'm with you Kyle..I don't see the curve...I hope we are wrong!The annoying thing is the days we have to wait to see what this thing is going to do!
1169. Relix
Does a South FL landfall suggests problems for the islands?? This season has me soooo confused...
My advice: Wait a few days before saying that TD 6 will or will not be a fish storm or make landfall. Model runs will become more accurate after it gets a good circulation and is stronger; they will also show possible recurvature (which is out of the range of most models right now).
1171. ebzz
Yeah, if #6 takes the path everyones saying its going to, it'll take a week and a half before its right next to us.. There's a lot of time before its even near us and things can change dramatically.
does anyone see any changes going on right now in the 11pm update from nhc. ?
1173. ebzz
Relix, if you live on the treasure islands, it might be a problem. Look at what frances/jeanne/wilma did to the bridges that connect the island to the mainland.
Thank you PBG. This Bermuda high (ridge) is going to build in strong with no weaknesses - and (unfortunately) is going to take TD6 into the east coast (including Florida) sometime. Within the next 48 hours, shear is going to drop below 10kts, and a large anticyclone is going to build over TD6. This anticyclone, low shear, and extremely warm water to a deep depth will provide an extremely favorable environment for significant development, most likely into a major hurricane. Also, there is a trough now moving past TD6 (which is causing the shear). This trough will be splitting soon, with the strongest part moving eastward and the little weaker bits being left behind. These small fragments left behind will yet again contribute to TD6's strengthening, as it will help the system's ventilation.
1175. SEFL
Posted By: ebzz at 7:37 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
I'm making 2 calls. Either it forms into a cat 3 and hits s. florida or dissipates, reforms, hits florida as a cat1.


Basis for your "calls"?
this i think is headed for south florida, it reminds me of andrew
1177. ebzz
SEFL, I don't think it has enough time to develop into a cat4/5 unless it slows. (my first assumption) and second, if it reforms, it will be right next to or over the bahamas and won't have time there either. Now those are assumptions and I know when you make assumptions, you make an ASS out of yourself but oh well. -_-
ebzz: look at andrew, it was weak until the Bahamas
Wed. exstended forcast shows a trough that will be between to building high pressure ridges that will allow a slot much like a funnel that will pull 6 northward but as always timeing is the key.
ihave27windows-
are you talking about this

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
HIGH...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING LITTLE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
1181. ebzz
WPBHurricane05 True.
guys this blog has gone crazy....
1183. SEFL
"HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING LITTLE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO."

We've been having locally heavy rains for a week already.
the times are backwards.
No thunder, I don't think so.
how weird the comment appears at the top instead of the bottom.
Hurricane23 my times are ok but I have had other problems this afternoon.
Whats going on with TD6? Someone please update me.
23-change from newest first to order posted or vice versa
Jer
why is everyone saying a Fl. landfall!?!? The models are shifting more and more North, so if it hits any land, it will be from SC- ME.
Which convection is TD6? The area of convection SW or the are NE?
Actually the models are staying the same, somewhat shifting more west.
got it guys thanks...
23-click order posted and your world will be right side up lol
JER
1195. Ron5244
The stage is set for the biggest hurricane so far this year. The actors know their parts. Very warm water from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas will play a big role. Another lead character is the existing westerly flow across a segment the central Atlantic. Its part in the play will be short as a big high takes center stage to the north. Factoring all these elements together, there is a strong likelihood that Tropical Depression 6 will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane later this week. Just like a TV drama, the
end of this story has yet to be revealed.

Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet


1196. nash28
The models have not shifted north. And use the GFDL, has that model moved? No. In fact, it is still showing a dead west movement around 25N for several runs now. I don't see where 25N is NC or Maine.
Pip- look at this
Frame 1 clearly has more Northerly ones than Frame 2.
Relying on the models more than instinct and weather knowledge is really a stupid thing to do. I can see what scenario is going to set up, and I expect TD6 to be a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. anywhere from South Florida to south of New Jersey, but no farther north. I'm not completely confident, but I'm pretty sure I've factored in all the possibilities into this estimate. Now I don't like to say this is going to happen, but I'm not going to lie and say it's not going to hit the U.S. coast, because I feel the chances of it are becoming increasingly higher, and us saying it's a fish storm isn't going to make it one.
im still stiking with south florida
1200. salter
hey nash you gettin pounded down there
also i saw a votex just north of tampa about 10 mins ago
NHC ON TD6.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/2100 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 16.9N 43.8W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AND CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS
TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX AS A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEPARTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CENTER IS
BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION.
THE MOST ACTIVE BAND IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY
Welcome back Nash.

Blog is calmer now.
The link to my new experimental track Link

Discussion below:

TD6 has been suffering from high shear this entire Labor day, with any core convection getting pulled Northeastward by upper and mid level Southwesterlies. At the same time however, the remnants of 98L have been acting as a distant feeder band to the large low level circulation associated with the depression, now centered near 17N 44.5W, moving WNW to NW at 12 MPH.
As a forecast my forecast here would be considered rather bold in nature, but very well could validate as well. The well defined low level circulation of TD6 continues to move WNW to NW as of now. While, the core convection continues to pull away from the center of circulation, the remnants of 98L have become the more important factor for keeping this system alive. At the same time, the ridge expected to build in to the North of this system will start building at the surface first, allowing the large surface circulation to become more involved with 98L's remnants at the same time turning WNW to West sooner, or perhaps making a sudden center relocation West. If this occurs, it will later tonight during the diurnal maximum, and when the surface ridge begins to turn the now shallow circulation more towards the West.
Once this theory becomes established all of the same factors of previous forecasts become the same, with lower shear starting in 48 to 72 hours, and a strong ridge to the North of the system filling in and steering the system West to WNW. Therefore, the first 48 hours of the forecast becomes a bit jumpy, but the timeframe after 48 hours is recognizable, but left of the hurricane center forecast. This forecast is for experimental purposes only, errors can be large. Next Forecast update at 1AM EST Tuesday.
Where is TD6!? Someone please show me. I can't figure out whether its the big area of convection moving of to the NE, or the area of convection around 47 west, 15 north. Or in between. Someone please point her out.
Relying on the models more than instinct and weather knowledge is really a stupid thing to do. I can see what scenario is going to set up, and I expect TD6 to be a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. anywhere from South Florida to south of New Jersey, but no farther north. I'm not completely confident, but I'm pretty sure I've factored in all the possibilities into this estimate. Now I don't like to say this is going to happen, but I'm not going to lie and say it's not going to hit the U.S. coast, because I feel the chances of it are becoming increasingly higher, and us saying it's a fish storm isn't going to make it one.
1206. nash28
Yes Salter, I am getting hammered! I noticed the sky turning green. It reminded me of Dallas.

On the current rainfall over Sfla, it's been mostly rainy for a week already. Nothing abnormal really for this time of year, just a little more concentrated. The more rain we get now, the less we have to worry about the dry season (and a repeat of the fires that plagued us earlier in the year).

On TD6s forward speed... everyone seems to conclude that it will maintain it's forward speed, but don't storms usually begin to slow down once they near the caribbean?
Pipsneyy - this image is more or less centered over TD 6:

Sunrise - storms will typically slow down when they begin strengthening, because it makes it easier for them. I think TD6 has in fact slowed down, because I can not detect any noticable movement on the satellite.
I have to go now.....but I'll be back later to check up on TD6....the GOM, and all of you.
So whats going to happen overnight?
1213. salter
hey nash28 i mostly got nothing up here again everything split z-hills again
stay alert my friend
come to the chat were tring to break a record
Hurrricane79 great update bro...That track looks very possible as the current trof will lift out and be replaced by a strong ridge.
Good afternoon Nash
1217. salter
hurricane79
WOW that forcast makes my head hurt lol
come on almost there, its easier than refresh
Lastest GFDL also showing a NW turn.




1220. o22sail
Still a long way out, but, I'm worried about a SC,NC,VA,MD landfall. Seems too far north already to hit Florida. Stranger things have happened though. It might even scare the crap out of NYC. (if the earlier long range gfs is to be believed)
But, still a long way out.


The models don't see the strong ridge, YET.
come on almost ther, be part of history
everyone come to the chatroom its full of people this is where its goin down
1800 GFDL has move to the west but turned to the NW now lining up with most of the other models. I think SF may been in the clear.
Somebody put me in check. TD06 appears to be taking a more westerly stroll, lately.
1226. ebzz
WPBHurricane05 what are you talking about and where can i get into the chatroom?
Posted By: JensenBeach at 8:18 PM EDT on September 04, 2006.
1800 GFDL has move to the west but turned to the NW now lining up with most of the other models. I think SF may been in the clear.

Looks better but we still have to let things evolve.
ok we dont need any more we broke the record!!
can anyone get to the GFDL model for 18Z. the fsu site still has 12z posted
I see two scenerios as far as the models. They are all way too north or they are all curving too late depending on what you think the center is. Given initialization points by NHC, I have a sneaking suspicion the whole model grid will be moved south in 24 hours

ALL IMHO
Yikes what a light show up here atm winds are picking up and the sky has a greenish tint right before it goes to pitchblack
1233. Rick54
Jeez ... I take a nap and when I wake up the world is coming to an end.

Does anyone have a link to the 18z gfdl
1234. nash28
Hey guys. Had to break for dinner. Read 79's post and I couldn't agree more. I think his track as for right now is in good confidence.
I think tomorow morning, the center will relocate, and the path will be south of what it is now. Who agrees?
Here is the 18Z gfdl. It just updated

Link
1237. nash28
18z GFDL pretty much stays the same. Brings major hurricane just east of East Central FL coast.
1239. nash28
Sorry guys. Not just east of the coast. Still pretty far off the coast.
pipsneyy, agreed Link
1242. Rick54
Between 79's track which is born out by the the 18z GFDL and what I see of that high it looks like if the present trends continue a US landfall cannot be ruled out. While the storm is pushing up into the ridge the pressures to the North might be enough to keep it from curving to far North before it makes a landfall.

Once again, its too early to really tell but....
It should be interesting if it does make a run for the Southeast coast. The low shear that is forecasted and the very warm waters lie that ahead of it definately very supportive.


SST
The new GFDL consolidates the Northern half of the system in 24 hours, I believe the Southern half will win the battle as of now. If that happens, the GFDL will have to shift South by about 4 degrees
Could be another hugo for the Carolinas
1246. Gatorx
hurricane23 -

I like what I see on the track...good evening everyone..
Looks better but we still have to let things evolve.
Hurricane23 - I agree but that is a hopeful sign. I don't want to wish this storm on anyone but us in Florida have a enough for a while.
79, what do you mean?
Rick54, The GFDL sets the center of the storm too far North in 36 hours. The idea of their track is correct, but too far North and East in the first 36 hours
1250. Rick54
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:38 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
The new GFDL consolidates the Northern half of the system in 24 hours, I believe the Southern half will win the battle as of now. If that happens, the GFDL will have to shift South by about 4 degrees

I assume that you mean at the end of the model run? That would put it somewhere around 21 degrees or so. If that comes to pass then you are talking an increasing probability of a SE US landfall?
Pipsneyy, that link was to my discussion regarding the low level center turning West sooner than expected due to the shallow state of the storm, in addition, the convection to the SW will allow the center to try to relocate there as well. Click on the link for more detail
To add to that 79, if the ridge stays strong, it would bring it right into Florida.
chat rooms are ok for one topic, too many things to consider with tropical info to keep up with the chat room.
Rick54 an increased probability, yes, but still too early to decide on.
1255. Rick54
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Rick54, The GFDL sets the center of the storm too far North in 36 hours. The idea of their track is correct, but too far North and East in the first 36 hours.

Your assumption then is the High will be less effected than the models indicate?
ah now we are talking land fall now and i been trying to say all day to day
79, so whats the chances of the center relocating that far south? and that would be bad for south east U.S. right?
1258. nash28
Hurricane79 is right. The COC will continue to jump around in this shear and will probably relocate SW of the current position from the models.
I am still curios to see if my forecast pans out. Is is very possible from experience.
1260. Rick54
Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:44 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
ah now we are talking land fall now and i been trying to say all day to day

As 79 said it is too early to tell. All you can look at is the trends. Is the high building stronger or weaker? That sort of thing. I do agree that any Southerly movement would increase the odds BUT that doesn't mean landfall.
The 18Z gfs is out. It wants to set up the sept huritrain.
1262. Gatorx
It looks like it has gobbled the former 98, but since TD6 has not moved very far - the small wave behind it looks like it is catching up.. it does not look impressive - however if it merged with TD6 it would be interesting.
Link


i think TD 6 did relocate look at the new T-storms arond it
At this moment everything looks very very very disorganized to me. The shear is very very very strong. Look at that monster sinking south in the center of the Atlantic.
Pipsneyy, it all depends on how long that strong ridge stays North of the cyclone
Taz, where do you think it relocated? Point it out please.
Whens the ridge going to leave?
well look at all the t-storms and look at the spin it has with the t-storm
Skye, that 18z GFS does not look good....

Easily navigate the many great imagery, model, and preparedness sites on the web from one page. Quick Links
Are the models on the FSU site supposed to animate. I can't get them to do it.
the t-storms to the ne or sw?
For all we know maybe all the waves will neautralize each other and nothing forms...
1273. Rick54
I just went back and looked at the 18z GFDL again and the High is looking pretty persistant. It is close to being as strong in the last frame as it is over the next day or so... only more elongated. 79's forcast track looks really plausable.
The GFS is the only model that runs far enough out in time to tell us any idea of when the ridge will weaken. But, with any tropical system, the GFS changes way too much between each 6 hour run especially when the tropical system is over 6 days (144H) out.
Link


hit my link it is a loops now see the big t-storms from TD 6???? and see the spin it has???? thats is TD 6
StormJunkie,
How did Dr.Masters get your Ernesto pic? Did you ask him to post it in his blog or dide he find it?? It was a good pic, just wondering..
so it relocated more north then? cause thats where i see the t-storm spin..
Remember that if my forecast for the first 48 hours hold to fruition, then all models will have to re-initialize the position. We will not know the answer to that until tomorrow
1279. PBG00
North??I though we were talking a more southerly location...
That is an interesting new blob of convection there. Good proof to any doubters about the storm being dead
I posted a new blog with the latest QuikSCAT pass. These passes are generally available twice per day for the Atlantic, at roughly 8:30am and 8:3pm EDT.

Jeff Masters
1282. PBG00
Thanks Doc!
Pipsneyy yes
Where are you guys noticing that it relocated north? By the way, TD6 is moving more towards the WNW and is moving faster than anticipated. Bad news for East Coast....
Thanks 03, After I uploaded my pics to My Photos. It got put in the current weather photos. Next day Dr M used it. Never emailed anyone. Thanks again Dr M

The models on the FSU page should animate, but sometimes you have to scroll right or down to find the play buttons.
1286. will40
the center will probably relocate back and forth the next couple of days
1287. Rick54
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:58 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Remember that if my forecast for the first 48 hours hold to fruition, then all models will have to re-initialize the position. We will not know the answer to that until tomorrow.

Help me understand here ... Met and Climatology classes were 25 years ago and I'm just getting back into really looking hard at the weather.

Should the track shift S. as you say would the pressure differential between the storm and the high increase to the point that it is likely not going to impinge as much on the high? In other words will the steering force of the high be increased?
1288. PBG00
new blog
we never know until it happens