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Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CybrTeddy:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.7mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.6 3.7

Raw T has really cranked up on Gert, now almost to hurricane according just to the RAW T.


What is a 3.7? How close to hurricane?

WOW...is this really developing quickly or what?!
I think the center just came into frame, no eye from what I can tell. Just the foundation needed for one.

has any one noted that the ITCZ is really poping with t-storms tonight even no nothing march will come out of them
1504. xcool


nam .
Quoting JLPR2:


Really, I remember seeing them close or at hurricane strength and posted here.
At one point the raw T-number from ADT reached T4.2. That's as high as I remember it reaching though, that's still a category 1 though.
Evening all.  Looks like the trolls have gone to bed :)

Gert certainly seems to be getting her act together.  Hopefully the brunt of the winds will pass well offshore.

The blog will certainly be hopping soon as more storms develop.  To quote T.O., better getcha popcorn ready.  Speaking of my TX friends, I would send you some rain if I could, but (for Cowboy fans) you'll have to settle for the best "steal" of the NFL draft- Dwayne Harris.  He made us proud many times over in Greenville and will bring you much joy.

Saw lightning off to the west... Later.
1507. j2008
Quoting MrstormX:
I think the center just came into frame, no eye from what I can tell. Just the foundation needed for one.


Not quite into view but almost. Should be in the next few minuets.
Quoting MrstormX:
I think the center just came into frame, no eye from what I can tell. Just the foundation needed for one.



I guess we have a strong tropical storm on our hands then right now...interesting....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...actually you can point them to Gert...she may actually pull this off and become a hurricane...she is already looking suspicious I gather from my feelings and some of the comments here.

She isn't a hurricane yet...but her chances are certainly growing by the developments we have been seeing in the last few hours...
I agree.This reminds me of Shary part two.
Weakening Flag : ON

According to ADT, so the raw T# shouldn't be taken to seriously.
1512. angiest

Quoting MrstormX:
Weakening Flag : ON

According to ADT, so the raw T# shouldn't be taken to seriously.
But sometimes that flag is spurious.
has any one noted that the ITCZ is really poping with t-storms tonight even no nothing march will come out of them
Quoting AussieStorm:



1515. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At one point the raw T-number from ADT reached T4.2. That's as high as I remember it reaching though, that's still a category 1 though.


I knew I wasn't nuts. XD
Quoting MrstormX:
Weakening Flag : ON

According to ADT, so the raw T# shouldn't be taken to seriously.


Why would this have a weakening flag? Does that mean this is weaker than at 11 PM? How?

I should learn more about the Dvorak technique...
1517. j2008
Well I'm out for the night, got school in the morning.
1520. spathy
spurious

OMG

Love it!
I had forgotten about that word from the blog past.
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one noted that the ITCZ is really poping with t-storms tonight even no nothing march will come out of them




I GUSS NOT
Wowza, not too shabby.

i think we can say 92L is now RIP
Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.





is that a eye on the rader?
1526. angiest

Quoting spathy:
spurious

OMG

Love it!
I had forgotten about that word from the blog past.
Heh, had forgotten it has been used here.
Quoting spathy:
spurious

OMG

Love it!
I had forgotten about that word from the blog past.


A hello to you, Spathy :)
1528. spathy
Quoting JLPR2:


I knew I wasn't nuts. XD


Its the spawn of Emily.
You can expect the unexpected.
Looking at that loop, it seems the cloud tops are warming appreciably...  May be a non-spurious weakening. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:

Quoting Tazmanian:




I GUESS NOT

Taz, are you bored? The ITCZ is like that right around the world. So it's no surprise it's got thunderstorms firing off.
Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?


Nay...but decent structure
1533. spathy
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


A hello to you, Spathy :)


Hello eyes.

And all :O)
1534. angiest

Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?
Remember you are looking very high up in the storm.  Hard to judge if that is anything using just reflectivity data.  Velocity data would be helpful, but if this radar is capable of it, I think we are too far away, and I think it would be range folded anyway.
0z GFS is running. It shows an area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic by 54 hours, presumably from the system about to enter the Atlantic from Africa.

Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye on the rader?

CDO
Quoting AussieStorm:

Taz, are you bored? The ITCZ is like that right around the world. So it's no surprise it's got thunderstorms firing off.



you can say that i was this seeing if any one new that the ITCZ is fireing off t-storms tonight that sure is a lot of t-storms for the ITCZ
Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.



Really? My feelings on this storm change as fast as the stock market...LOL...the center looks less impressive than it did minutes ago on radar....
Quoting MrstormX:
Wowza, not too shabby.




other rader update round be nic
...but don't get me wrong...Gert certainly a stronger tropical storm right now IMO...and could become a hurricane....
1542. JLPR2
Seems ex-96L feels more confident when no one is watching.
If you use the MIMIC imagery as a guide, then the COC is starting to come into the radar.
Quoting Tazmanian:



you can say that i was this seeing if any one new that the ITCZ is fireing off t-storms tonight that sure is a lot of t-storms for the ITCZ

it's normally like that mate!
no pressure change or wind change in bermuda yet...
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's normally like that mate!



not sure i think the MJO has some in to do with it
1548. spathy
Quoting Tazmanian:



you can say that i was this seeing if any one new that the ITCZ is fireing off t-storms tonight that sure is a lot of t-storms for the ITCZ


I agree with you Taz
The ITCZ is looking rather perky this evening.
My final image tonight:

Quoting dfwstormwatch:
no pressure change or wind change in bermuda yet...


Another sign that Gert is a small system...
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link
x93L is in the best conditions out there in the Atlantic and under a anticyclone. If it doesn't develop now it's toast. The E Caribbean is a graveyard.
looks like it will it stay East of Bermuda....and will still be a TS...

am telling you guys i sure i spay a eye on the rader


but i guss we cant relly tell in tell the next few updates if it is or not
Quoting MrstormX:
My final image tonight:



could you link it?
Quoting AussieStorm:


Interesting..
Quoting Tazmanian:
am telling you guys i sure i spay a eye on the rader


but i guss we cant relly tell in tell the next few updates if it is or not

Taz if you click that link i just posted, then you'll see it's not an eye. sorry to disappoint you
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 30:14:52 N Lon : 63:18:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.7mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.6 4.0
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


could you link it?


http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


I tried to view that earlier, not working for me...could be cause I'm using safari
Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


thanks Aussie...
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!
The models this year have developed various systems out of african waves as soon as they come off.And none have materialized.93L well ex-93L was an exsample.And so was plenty others.
Last Radar frame shows a COC

Quoting MrstormX:


I tried to view that earlier, not working for me...could be cause I'm using safari

It runs on FF and Chrome.
Link
notice an eye starting to form in the visible satellite imagery
Quoting reedzone:
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!



hi reedszone what you think about the ITCZ dos it have too do with the mojo be come it really poping up t-storms tonight all so what you think about ex 93L do you think it still has a ch
will there be a 2am update on Gert?
Quoting reedzone:
The 7th name storm (Gert) has formed and is threatening Bermuda tonight... Do you all understand that we are not far form the speed of 2005?? We should only be on our 4th storm on average for Early to Mid August. We were at Earl in 2004 around this time, Colin last year, and we are already ahead of 2008 where they were only up to Fay, which made landfall in Palm Coast as a TS. Big season ahead, be prepared!
I've cuaght you.I think tying last year's record is very pluasable.Or even surpassing it.I forecasted a total of 17 named storms this season.I think we'll get a storm in november as the past neutral years have had a november storms.And they have been hurricanes.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?


Yes...when a watch/warning is present...the NHC updates every 3 hours instead of 6.
Reed, WU mail.

Raw T is up to 4.0 now.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?


Yep.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
will there be a 2am update on Gert?



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link
notice an eye starting to form in the visible satellite imagery


Sorry...can't see the eye in that loop...but the radar and microwave images do show the beginnings of an eyeish feature though...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Sorry...can't see the eye in that loop...but the radar and microwave images do show the beginnings of an eyeish feature though...

agree, but notice how the convection all shifts NW?
this is going too be a vary close call for Bermuda.
Quoting NavarreMark:


I will repeat the statement. Football games should NEVER be cancelled or delayed due to weather.

Spent to many years enduring rocky mountain blizzards at mile high amid sold out seats. Nobody ever went home and the games went on.

The timid of heart should stick to the domes.


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.
Quoting AussieStorm:

agree, but notice how the convection all shifts NW?


Yeah...I did notice that...the convective burst east of center is wrapping around...but the intensity of clouds right at the center is not faded...which (from a sat. perspective) is what I would expect to see when an eye is popping open....

However...I wouldn't be surprised if Gert shows an eye on satellite when the sun rises over it hours later...
RAW T 4.0 is a hurricane right?
1579. robj144
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.


How old was that post? I remember reading that hours ago when I came on during the day. :)
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??
Not even 7am here yet...

Quoting robj144:


How old was that post? I remember reading that hours ago when I came on during the day. :)


I think that was last blog too
1584. robj144
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is going too be a vary close call for Bermuda.


I think Bermuda should be fine. It's like a thunderstorm to them as they have very tough building codes.
1585. wn1995
Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a better radar view from Bermuda.
Link


Yeah not an eye but it definitely shows it is organizing. I'd say it is at least a 50-60 mph ts at this point.
This season so far is a dream! Weak systems that spin out harmlessly to sea. God willing, it will continue!
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??



28 storms
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??
10?.
1589. robj144
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??


52?
00z GFS

Enter stage right:


Quoting Tazmanian:



28 storms


um not even close...
Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:




These models seem to change a lot from run to run...I'll take them with a grain of salt for now...
Another GFS ghost storm.

It needs model support to be considered a threat.

00z
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:




Should be the wave currently coming off Africa?
Reed, thats about 19-21 storms.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not even 7am here yet...

Still in Europe?

192 hours:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:


I'm not trusting that for a mere second until I actually see the wave developing about a day or two when it get's off the African coast.Models have develope most waves off of Africa and none have materialized.
LOL....sorry...your guys's math is making me laugh...really sorry :)

By the way...why is it Dr. M's post here says the models show no development...but you guys are able to find model runs that show development all the time? Interesting...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still in Europe?

192 hours:



Yeah, two more weeks left.

the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit
If what Reed says holds to be true, the naming list could be used up.
1603. robj144
Quoting reedzone:
Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..


Damn... I was off by 30+. :)
1604. wn1995
Quoting Tazmanian:



28 storms


lol great math! ;)
1605. robj144
Quoting caneswatch:
If what Reed says holds to be true, the naming list could be used up.


It's just a guess though... anything can happen.
Quoting wn1995:


lol great math! ;)



lol thanks
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit


Gert also showing a nice head over the center with two well-curved bands SE of center...definitely more mature than the simple circular burst it had just hours ago...
IMO, 9 more names after September 1st.

Could see 2-3 more in August.

We're looking at a 17-19 named year.
Quoting reedzone:
Looking at 18-20 named storms this year..
Man I missed it by 8-10.My math hs really gotten bad since college.
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 9 more names after September 1st.

Could see 2-3 more in August.

We're looking at a 17-19 named year.


Yeah, around there it seems.. Mine is 18-20.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

the eastern Caribbean has moistened up a bit


Oh...and that same sat. image shows 92L has been wiped into oblivion...92L no more finally!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS

Enter stage right:


What is that? The GFS on crack? Or mabye the 2 week GFS? 0% possibility .
Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season


Right on bro...definitely looking like it...steady but surely....
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Another GFS ghost storm.

It needs model support to be considered a threat.

00z


Crazy GFS.... Next Frame shows this... The real is that models have been crazy but the season has been up to now, quite unpredictable...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, two more weeks left.
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:

Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season




when you think will see a real storm too track
Quoting reedzone:
I actually believe my prediction is very reasonable due to the amount of storms we currently have. Looks like Gert is trying to become our first Hurricane of the Season
I call Gert Shary part two.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I call Gert Shary part two.


And didn't Shary also just go east by Bermuda like Gert might?

gert on the Dvorak satellite
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:



Yeah, really not looking forward to it.

384 hours
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:

I'm laughing.I can't take that seriously.
Well since we all seem to be giving our prediction for how many name storms this season...I thought I would stick my neck in & go with 21 named storms, yep I think we will use up all the names on the list. No 2005 though, that year deserves the right to be left in infamy!
Now they updated GFS..

Should be the new wave coming out of Africa

Quoting dfwstormwatch:

gert on the Dvorak satellite


She looks like a shrimp in that view....
1 am observation @ bermuda indicated both pressure and winds speeds are down
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, really not looking forward to it.

384 hours
"really not looking forward to it".That obviously can't be taken seriously.Remember the GfS had Bill hitting NOLA?.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


And didn't Shary also just go east by Bermuda like Gert might?
Yes if memory serves me correctly.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn, gonna be hard to get used to EDT when you get back.

Another recurvature after moving over Puerto Rico and Hispañola. 324 hours below:

It's hard for me to say recurvature after a storm goes into the Caribbean and wrecks havoc, in my dictionary I see recurvature as going out to sea & not affecting any landmass ala fish storm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
"really not looking forward to it".That obviously can't be taken seriously.Remember the GfS had Bill hitting NOLA?.


Was referring to Miami's post...
The SAL and dry air has helped to keep the lid on so far this season. The wind shear hasn't been much of an issue at all. I am willing to bet just about every wave that has rolled off Africa could be a hurricane if it wasn't for such a stable atmosphere in place. There is probably going to be one storm after another when the MJO returns in the coming weeks. The Atlantic will be more moistened up by then and will be ready to rock n roll.
Gert is the best looking storm I've seen this season. Could become a Strong TS before it transitions.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
1 am observation @ bermuda indicated both pressure and winds speeds are down


Was the wind direction before 1 am out of the south? What is the wind direction right now at 1 am?
Recurvature after going in the Caribbean that low? The GFS is off its rocker tonight.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Was the wind direction before 1 am out of the south? What is the wind direction right now at 1 am?

still from the south
By the way I really do think we need to start taking the GFS more seriously (in terms of development) since we are getting close to the peak of the Hurricane season, now in terms of track these models can flip-flop back in forth like a fish pulled out of water, but it's when they get close to the islands or 5 days out when we really need to start paying attention to them.
00z GFS holy we cow look off the E COAST

Quoting ElConando:
Gert is the best looking storm I've seen this season. Could become a Strong TS before it transitions.


Some of us tonight (including myself) are saying possibly even a hurricane before transition to extratropical....
1639. JRRP
cube hurricane???
lol
And SAL looks like its going to keep doing the job well...
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

still from the south


Well...if the wind direction from the south is slowing down...that means the circulation is getting closer to Bermuda...I expect the winds from the south will continue to slow...then switch to a northerly direction as the center passes on by to the east...

If the center passes far enough to the east...the winds may actually never become northerly..but instead variable....because Gert is really small...
Anyone see the fat wave currently over Africa?.I wonder if it has a low?
Models have not done so well with these weak small systems. Hopefully they do well when the monsters start forming out there.
just 30 to 40 more minutes until the new update on t.s gert comes out... cant wait!
Is whatever protecting texas from any hurricane hits at this time going to be present for the entire hurricane season? Just wondering if this will change and could tx be at risk for a hurricane later in the season. I dont know where to find the model for the "high" that is protecting us now.
Quoting Tazmanian:
00z GFS holy we cow look off the E COAST

SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.
Looks like the latest SAL chart shows it has dropped further S off Africa. If it stays like that there won't be much of a CV season. It will be similar to 2005 where nothing gets going until further W. You can go ahead and discount that wave coming off Africa forming anytime soon.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone see the fat wave currently over Africa?.I wonder if it has a low?


I just looked...yeah its a large and impressive wave...but its broad spin is going to emerge at a latitude too far north...putting it initally over marginal SSTs...plus someone posted an image (post 1640) of the dry SAL which looks prime over the latitude that this large spin is heading across.

This wave seems shaky right now too...
Quoting sunlinepr:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?
Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.



heh heh heh
Quoting weatherganny:
Is whatever protecting texas from any hurricane hits at this time going to be present for the entire hurricane season? Just wondering if this will change and could tx be at risk for a hurricane later in the season. I dont know where to find the model for the "high" that is protecting us now.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN IT SLIDES WEST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE IT SLIDES WEST AND AS A
RESULT...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS
NOT A STRONG INDICATION OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS/RAIN EVENT FOR
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING A
FIRM GRIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO OR IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. NEARLY EACH DAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES /WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES/...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL ON A DAILY BASIS.
1653. Mucinex
Quoting washingtonian115:
SMH.Lol.The GFS needs a nice cup of tea and cookies to calm it's self down.

Somewhere in North Carolina, Presslord just woke up in a cold sweat and doesn't know why..;)
Will this wave be our first big Cane?? Which one?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?


The Sahara is expanding S some 10 or more miles per year... How will this affect eventually the emission of waves from CV region?
That's a good Graduate study for any Met. student...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Will this wave be our first big Cane?? Which one?
I'll go with the one over Nigeria...btw I like this map it shows the deserts of Africa.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN IT SLIDES WEST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE IT SLIDES WEST AND AS A
RESULT...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS
NOT A STRONG INDICATION OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS/RAIN EVENT FOR
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING A
FIRM GRIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO OR IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. NEARLY EACH DAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES /WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES/...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL ON A DAILY BASIS.


This forecast IS NOT GOOD...drought will generally continue....
Quoting GTcooliebai:
you know the water temperature off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara has cooled indicative of the strength of each SAL episode. Could you imagine if the desert was instead a rain forest over there how active Cape-Verde season would be?
It was lush in the past, as recently as possibly 3000 BC.
Quoting robert88:
Models have not done so well with these weak small systems. Hopefully they do well when the monsters start forming out there.
There's a problem with that. A wave that stays weak moves westward across the Atlantic and poses a threat to the Caribbean. A wave that develops quickly after coming off of Africa, moves poleward, and poses a threat to no one.

Take Felix, Charley, Jeanne, to name 3.

Then take Bertha, Karl (2004), and Danielle (2004). These found favorable conditions off of Africa and recurved out to sea.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'll go with the one over Nigeria...btw I like this map it shows the deserts of Africa.


Open this link and then click on the globe for a big zoom...

Link


The main page is

Link
well 92 l's gone for good
Quoting reedzone:
7 names so far...

lets break about 3 or 4 more for the rest of the month
Potential 5 more in September
Then 3 in October (Including Subtropical)
1-2 in November/December

Add that up and how many do you have??


Like...21? 19 to 21, sorta like last year perhaps just a little tad bit more busy. I do see the US also being threatened sometime next month by multiple hurricanes.
Quoting robert88:
Looks like the latest SAL chart shows it has dropped further S off Africa. If it stays like that there won't be much of a CV season. It will be similar to 2005 where nothing gets going until further W. You can go ahead and discount that wave coming off Africa forming anytime soon.


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
Bingo.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.


Yes indeed. Waves that don't start developing until they get near the islands or further W pose a much greater risk for the CONUS.
The SAL could very well ease off here soon. Africa and further E is lined up with huge waves at the moment. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the coming months.
Tropical Storm Gert is doing very well tonight and heres the intensity forecast i think will play out
6 HR... 55 MPH
12 HR...60 MPH
18 HR... 65 MPH
24 HR ... 70 Mph
30 HR.... 75 Mph
36 HR.... 70 MPH
42 HR.... 60 MPH
48 HR.... 50 MPH extratropical
1669. wn1995
I am really surprised it stayed at 45 mph! It has been organizing throughout the evening, and I think is at least 50 mph at this point.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Open this link and then click on the globe for a big zoom...

Link


The main page is

Link
Thanks I'll book it, I see the Nile River :) btw the Sahara Desert moving S 10 miles a year is a huge shift, and if what we already know about the SAL is true then the activity will be lessened since Dry Air, Dust, & Sand are known to create an inversion layer over the marine layer blocking out any sunlight from reaching the ocean to heat it up as well as responsible for creating a stable air mass, these factors can be attributed to supressing Tropical Cyclone Development. Of course more research is still on-going.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
It's good news if they fall apart.
1672. Mucinex
Anybody have a reliable link to proof that TS Alpha was not retired. I'm 100% sure it wasn't. But, I also can't seem to find reliable proof to back that up. Money is on the line.:)

Also, WU has all the greek-named storm maps from 2005 hitting Africa and Spain.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks I'll book it, I see the Nile River :) btw the Sahara Desert moving S 10 miles a year is a huge shift, and if what we already know about the SAL is true then the activity will be lessened since Dry Air, Dust, & Sand are known to create an inversion layer over the marine layer blocking out any sunlight from reaching the ocean to heat it up as well as responsible for creating a stable air mass, these factors can be attributed to supressing Tropical Cyclone Development. Of course more research is still on-going.


Sorry for my english, I should have said that the dessert is Expanding south, not moving...
It would be interesting gathering recorded and actual data to pronosticate what will effect it would have interacting with the ITCZ...

Also another interesting study would be (For those who think that there is global warming); What's the effect of higher temps. on the dessert storms vs. the ITCZ... SAL will be stronger and travel much farher, but also WV generation will be higher...
night my little ones let me put you all too bed now




heh heh heh this kinding lol night all
1675. Mucinex
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sorry for my english, I should have said that the dessert is Expanding south, not moving...
It would be interesting gathering recorded and actual data to pronosticate what will effect it would have interacting with the ITCZ...
That's ok, I still think that is pretty substantial shift kind of like how big earthquakes shift landmasses & tilt the earth's axis.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...OUTER BANDS OF GERT APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 63.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
1678. Tygor
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This forecast IS NOT GOOD...drought will generally continue....


Driest I've ever lived through, although I'm a Texas newbie of only about 7 years. 10-day outlook is a whole lotta 103 degrees, 0% chance of rain blah blah blah. We are just thankful for the 2" we've gotten this summer.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's ok, I still think that is pretty substantial shift kind of like how big earthquakes shift landmasses & tilt the earth's axis.


Correcting my data, by satellite observations, it is expanding S 5.5 Km per year since 1980...

(90 to 100 km during the 17-year period)

Link

Gnite all..
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


Thanks for the links sunlinepr :)
1672. Mucinex 5:40 AM GMT on August 15, 2011
Anybody have a reliable link to proof that TS Alpha was not retired. I'm 100% sure it wasn't. But, I also can't seem to find reliable proof to back that up. Money is on the line.:)

Also, WU has all the greek-named storm maps from 2005 hitting Africa and Spain.


NOAA news for the which named were officially retired in 2005
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one noted that the ITCZ is really poping with t-storms tonight even no nothing march will come out of them
My guess is, this is the upswing in the MJO we are witnessing. We've been expecting it.
1684. Mucinex
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


NOAA news for the which named were officially retired in 2005

Oh! Thank You, Thank You!
Who broke the satelite images?
if Gert is tracking 345 degrees, she may get very close to Bermuda.
she trying to get an eyewall going,pretty weak on the west side though
Is everyone in reflective mode?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
if Gert is tracking 345 degrees, she may get very close to Bermuda.

Gert doesn't sound like a woman name though. Storm names are alternated with gender. The last one was Franklin. Do thou also think that Gert doesn't sound like a woman name?
Gert - short for Gertrude, a womans name. A really old womans name, but a womans name.

I still want to know who broke the satelite images.
TS.Gert's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 14August_6amGMT and ending 15August_6amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 16.2mph(26k/h) on a heading of 353degrees(N)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Villagedale,NovaScotia 2days4hours from now

Copy&paste 28.0n62.2w-28.1n62.9w, 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, 28.6n63.1w-29.5n63.2w, 29.5n63.2w-30.9n63.4w, bda, 29.5n63.2w-43.51n65.54w, yhz, 22.3n58.0w, 22.8n59.0w, 24.0n59.8w, 25.7n59.7w, 28.0n59.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mappings (for 15August_12amGMT)
1693. emguy
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is everyone in reflective mode?


Not in reflective mode...but in reflective mood...Gert is the story of discussion, but for me over here in Port Charlotte...yesterday was 7th anniv. of Charley.

Anyhew, recalling it and reading the Hurricane Post Summary from the National Hurricane Center, it did not get any street cred in the Tropical Weather Outlook until it's passage in the leewards, where the pressure suddenly dropped 4 millibars, then they started giving more attention.

Anyhow, I mention it because we got a wave tracking toward the leewards that is not getting any street cred right now. Watch this one folks. The strong trough that brought Charley to Florida in 2004 will not be there, but a weakness will be in place next weekend and I think the eastern 2/3 of the Gulf should keep this wave in mind. Just my 2 cents...

There's some really interesting wave near the Leeward Islands. Where did that come from?
1695. emguy
Quoting Vincent4989:
There's some really interesting wave near the Leeward Islands. Where did that come from?


It is the wave previously know of as 93L...It's makin a comeback...or at least trying too.
Remnants of 93L, though probably too disorganized to be called a wave.
Quoting emguy:


It is the wave previously know of as 93L...It's makin a comeback...or at least trying too.

looks better than Gertrude.
92L down to 10% its being eaten by the blob
1699. emguy
Quoting Vincent4989:

looks better than Gertrude.


It's not better organized than Gert, but it has started to pull itself together now. Typically not a fan of fast moving waves, but this one is different. As of yesterday, the wave was basically embedded in a very elongated trough extension that came se toward the wave from 92L. A.) Gert just ate 92 L and B.) this wave has now moved far enough along that it has broke free of that trough extension and begun to turn over onto itself. In addition, looking at the tradewinds in the eastern carribean, they look like they are slowing down. This might just start to get very interesting folks...
i think its time to invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren
The GFS "ghost" storm may not be too crazy.. EURO shows the same exact thing!
Quoting reedzone:
The GFS "ghost" storm may not be too crazy.. EURO shows the same exact thing!

It almost looks as big as Tip!
1703. emguy
Quoting reedzone:
The GFS "ghost" storm may not be too crazy.. EURO shows the same exact thing!


300+ hours is a long way out though...especially when models are having a tough time resolving imminent development or shorter term trends. A lot can change in that timeframe. I am personally troubled with overall model performance this year. I'm thinking these "nina neutral" years are an issue for the models based on this and some other past years I have seen. Just got to refer to the climo trends when all else fails!
Quoting bappit:

Mid-latitude cyclones are often just as intense as tropical cyclones and are often much larger. They occur more frequently. They occur at all times of the year, over land and water. They are more effective.

But I am repeating myself.

Right, but as you just said, these are mid-latitude cyclones. They transport heat over the mid-latitudes. Hardly over the tropics. Tropical cyclones are the best and most efficient way to remove heat from the tropics towards the poles.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


000
WTNT42 KNHC 150847
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

GERT HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT. AN 0543 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND
DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA INDICATE THAT GERT HAS A FAIRLY
WELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE AND A SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS INCREASED TO 50 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS STILL SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE...AS SEEN IN THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
ANALYSIS AND THE SOUTHWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE AMSR-E IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING GERT LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.

THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/12.
GERT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
AND GAIN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF GERT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND BENEATH
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER 24 HOURS...GERT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WATERS COOLER THAN
20C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL
ABSORB GERT IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT...AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 31.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 33.5N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 36.8N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 40.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 43.0N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 48.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Morning all. So it looks like the 70 mph somebody mentioned wasn't off base at all.

And geez, it must have been quiet overnight... still on the same page...
Looks like x93L is about to hit some wonderful dry sinking air. If it stays an open wave it will just crash into CA like the EURO was showing. It needs to get going now.

1708. ackee
Quoting emguy:


300+ hours is a long way out though...especially when models are having a tough time resolving imminent development or shorter term trends. A lot can change in that timeframe. I am personally troubled with overall model performance this year. I'm thinking these "nina neutral" years are an issue for the models based on this and some other past years I have seen. Just got to refer to the climo trends when all else fails!
agree really dont trust any of the model when it comes to long trem devlopment this has really been bad after 4 days stop paying attention to the models
1709. Guysgal
Quoting largeeyes:
Gert - short for Gertrude, a womans name. A really old womans name, but a womans name.

I still want to know who broke the satelite images.



Gertrude is a female name whose origin is Old German. It means "sword bearer" and peaked in popularity around 1880s.
Quoting Guysgal:



Gertrude is a female name whose origin is Old German. It means "sword bearer" and peaked in popularity around 1880s.
Trudy is the more common abbreviation seen these days.
Coming through!!!!

1712. RTLSNK
1713. ackee
Quoting BahaHurican:
Coming through!!!!

DO u think the NHC will give it a yellow circle at 8am
Good morning all who are up early and to those who read back.
Quoting ackee:
DO u think the NHC will give it a yellow circle at 8am


Probably not. It's had no respect. Lol. Good morning all. Anyone know what the EURO showed last run? My links not working. It's ok. I'm not having withdrawals or anything. LOL.
Morn'n back at 'cha!
1717. ackee
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Probably not. It's had no respect. Lol. Good morning all. Anyone know what the EURO showed last run? My links not working. It's ok. I'm not having withdrawals or anything. LOL.
thanks for a response my link which is Allan Huffman weather model data is not working too off to work hav a good day
Trudy just turned to the northeast.

http://www.weather.bm/IRsatelliteImage.asp

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
Quoting ackee:
thanks for a response my link which is Allan Huffman weather model data is not working too off to work hav a good day


You have a good day too. :) Yeah that's the link I have that I can actually make heads or tails out of. We'll have to see if 93l will get itself going today. He liked DMAX looks like.
Good morning everyone.Up and at it early this morning.Getting baby off to school>First day for Mobile.Anyways 93L, does anyone think it will be reborn today?Or is the dry air still hindering her convection? TIA
1721. emguy
Quoting BahaHurican:
Coming through!!!!



Just a note...it is definately firing up and pulling in at the moment, but the general vorticity center would likely be SE of all the major convection. Lets just say somewhere around 13 N 56 W as a rough guess. It will require more time, but dry air is not an issue for this one. Good front running moisture of this one...we have seen this several times before. One of the most impressive storms was Ivan (2004), which had a solid dry air zone ahead of the system all the way at this point.
good morning all characters looks like the windwds are finally going to get a dose of heavy rain 6-8 inches?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Coming through!!!!

Is that 93L?
1724. emguy
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning everyone.Up and at it early this morning.Getting baby off to school>First day for Mobile.Anyways 93L, does anyone think it will be reborn today?Or is the dry air still hindering her convection? TIA


Dry air shouldn't be a factor for this one right now...There is dry air ahead of it, but the wave is embedded in a core of deep moisture. Not an issue at this time.
1725. emguy
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Is that 93L?


Yes...
Quoting emguy:


Just a note...it is definately firing up and pulling in at the moment, but the general vorticity center would likely be SE of all the major convection. Lets just say somewhere around 13 N 56 W as a rough guess. It will require more time, but dry air is not an issue for this one. Good front running moisture of this one...we have seen this several times before. One of the most impressive storms was Ivan (2004), which had a solid dry air zone ahead of the system all the way at this point.
Good morning. Ivan was already a well developed system at this point though.
Conditions look favorable for 93L. It has a low shear environment ahead and an anticyclone over it. SAL is about the only nonfavorable situation but that will clear past the islands and the heat will go up.
Quoting emguy:


Dry air shouldn't be a factor for this one right now...There is dry air ahead of it, but the wave is embedded in a core of deep moisture. Not an issue at this time.
Thanks Emguy.
1729. SLU
Very favourable conditions exist for 93L now and there seems to be a low trying to form near 14n 56w but it lacks much vorticity.
1730. emguy
True, but Charley wasn't, nor were some of the others at this point. Was just making note of this, no 2 storms are ever alike.

On a more specific note regarding this wave...Yes...there is dry air in the eastern Carribean...However...there is a solid thunderstorm band ahead of it. That frontrunning band will continue moisten the environment just ahead of X93L in this scenario. A plus for potential development.
Quoting emguy:
True, but Charley wasn't, nor were some of the others at this point. Was just making note of this, no 2 storms are ever alike.

On a more specific note regarding this wave...Yes...there is dry air in the eastern Carribean...However...there is a solid thunderstorm band ahead of it. That frontrunning band will continue moisten the environment just ahead of X93L in this scenario. A plus for potential development.


That's interesting. Thanks! Does anyone have a vort map they can put up? I can't find one. Of course I may be calling it the wrong thing. :)
1732. emguy
Quoting emguy:
True, but Charley wasn't, nor were some of the others at this point. Was just making note of this, no 2 storms are ever alike.

On a more specific note regarding this wave...Yes...there is dry air in the eastern Carribean...However...there is a solid thunderstorm band ahead of it. That frontrunning band will continue moisten the environment just ahead of X93L in this scenario. A plus for potential development.


Whoops...was trying to answer someone on the devlopment of Ivan versus the current status of this wave. To the earlier poster I was responding to...Yes, Ivan was more developed at this point. Sorry if I confused anybody with this post.
i called a gilbert like track got called out on the blog the character is right. this one is three weeks to earlier than gilbert
Quoting robert88:
Looks like x93L is about to hit some wonderful dry sinking air. If it stays an open wave it will just crash into CA like the EURO was showing. It needs to get going now.


Not inhibiting development, his anticyclone bodyguard is offering him free protection:
My goodness the temps outside are so nice in Mobile right now is 74.7 degrees.
Quoting emguy:


Whoops...was trying to answer someone on the devlopment of Ivan versus the current status of this wave. To the earlier poster I was responding to...Yes, Ivan was more developed at this point. Sorry if I confused anybody with this post.
LOL I realized it was me you were responding to. I don't recall what conditions were surrounding Felix at this point but it was in this area that he actually developed.
Former 93L and Barbados

Last night was extremely hot and humid. Woken up this morning by continuously heavy rainfall and some thunder activity.
Quoting islander101010:
i called a gilbert like track got called out on the blog the character is right. this one is three weeks to earlier than gilbert


If something develops here you could be right on with the track.
1739. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's interesting. Thanks! Does anyone have a vort map they can put up? I can't find one. Of course I may be calling it the wrong thing. :)


Hi AtHomeInTX, The link below is a loop of the water vapor in the atmosphere. The browns are very dry air. You will notice the front band ahead of the wave is working through towards the Carribean like a snowplow. (best anology/explanation I can think of). Hope it is helpful.

Link to Loop
Quoting emguy:


Hi AtHomeInTX, The link below is a loop of the water vapor in the atmosphere. The browns are very dry air. You will notice the front band ahead of the wave is working through towards the Carribean like a snowplow. (best anology/explanation I can think of). Hope it is helpful.

Link to Loop


Great analogy. :) Thanks.
93L seems to be headed toward the warm SST's ahead of it.The water is between 29-30 degree celcius.That is some hot water.It should get going once it gets in that bath tub.
One question,

Any trace of Emily? :P
1743. SLU
Surface observations from Barbados indicate that a surface low could be forming with 93L. The air pressure in the vicinity of the system has dropped to 1009 - 1010mb according to reports from the buoy east of Martinique (41101).
93L is suffering from poor low lvl vort, but the negative vorticity in upper lvls is pretty nice.

850 (low lvl)


200 (upper lvl)


The negative vort at the 200 lvl could aid any development, as it will serve to allow escape of the latent heat drawn in at lower lvls. However, the lower lvls aren't spinning that well.
Good Morning to all, humidity lower this morning. Yes, less heat index. So far U.S.A. has been fortunate with no storms but there is a long way to go this Hurricane season.
1746. WxLogic
Good Morning...

93L sure is looking quite healthier than these past days. So far NGP has been developing this system partially in the E Carib. Sea wither further development as it approaches W Carib.

If it develops then NAM would have done great with 93L as it develops it into a pretty strong TS to possibly HURR.
this is odd i seee they DEACTIVATE at 5:51AM but at 8:05AM they re activate it?

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren 6 KB 8/15/2011 5:51:00 AM


File:invest_al922011.invest 6 KB 8/15/2011 8:05:00 AM
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is odd i seee they DEACTIVATE at 5:51AM but at 8:05AM they re activate it?

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren 6 KB 8/15/2011 5:51:00 AM


File:invest_al922011.invest 6 KB 8/15/2011 8:05:00 AM
Maybe they still see a circulation with it. IDK.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Maybe they still see a circulation with it. IDK.



may be and it has com back a little
1750. WxLogic
Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L is suffering from poor low lvl vort, but the negative vorticity in upper lvls is pretty nice.

850 (low lvl)


200 (upper lvl)


The negative vort at the 200 lvl could aid any development, as it will serve to allow escape of the latent heat drawn in at lower lvls. However, the lower lvls aren't spinning that well.


Indeed... current DMAX has been also helping it produce some convection.

Would be interesting to see if it's able to sustain those TSTM(s) to better assist on that LLC development and then have it work its say up to the mid levels by later today.

I would expect NHC to reinstate it if its able to main a decent convection for 24HR to 48HR.
Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L is suffering from poor low lvl vort, but the negative vorticity in upper lvls is pretty nice.

850 (low lvl)


200 (upper lvl)


The negative vort at the 200 lvl could aid any development, as it will serve to allow escape of the latent heat drawn in at lower lvls. However, the lower lvls aren't spinning that well.


That's what I was wondering about. Thanks for posting those. :)
06Z GFS has a CLASSIC East Coast Hurricane from Florida to NYC
Off to school, the kiddies await. Everyone have a wonderful first day of the work week. I have a feeling from reading back through the blog that I will come home this evening to 93L being baptized with a real name. Have a fun day all!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning to all, humidity lower this morning. Yes, less heat index. So far U.S.A. has been fortunate with no storms but there is a long way to go this Hurricane season.


Good morning. A little cooler here this morning too. But the humidity is definitely not lower. Lol.

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Aug 15, 6:15 am CDT

Fog/Mist

73 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 29.93"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Visibility: 1.75 mi.
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is odd i seee they DEACTIVATE at 5:51AM but at 8:05AM they re activate it?

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren 6 KB 8/15/2011 5:51:00 AM


File:invest_al922011.invest 6 KB 8/15/2011 8:05:00 AM

That was my comment posted with style that i posted earlier i said it this:
Quoting Vincent4989:
i think its time to invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off to school, the kiddies await. Everyone have a wonderful first day of the work week. I have a feeling from reading back through the blog that I will come home this evening to 93L being baptized with a real name. Have a fun day all!


Have a good day. :)
1759. Hugo7
interesting to see another low swinging back down like 94 did. 93 getting serious now.
mjo
ex 93L has really came back too life this AM
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off to school, the kiddies await. Everyone have a wonderful first day of the work week. I have a feeling from reading back through the blog that I will come home this evening to 93L being baptized with a real name. Have a fun day all!Not all kiddies like going to public or private schools, some kiddies rather want non - formal education (as in homeschooling) because they want to stay with their mom, and - you know it.
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex 93L has really came back too life this AM
mhm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning. A little cooler here this morning too. But the humidity is definitely not lower. Lol.

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Aug 15, 6:15 am CDT

Fog/Mist

73 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 29.93"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Visibility: 1.75 mi.
73 get a jacket, it hasnt been 73 here since May :) Humidity here 71 percent due to high pressure stronger over my head.
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex 93L has really came back too life this AM
not 10% even though?
Quoting islander101010:
not 10% even though?




whats see the the new two says in a few sac
Reactivated...

AL, 93, 2011081500, 131N, 528W, 20, 1012, DB
AL, 93, 2011081506, 133N, 547W, 20, 1010, WV
1768. SLU
My take on 93L is that the NHC will be more conservative with it as a result of its slow development and give it a yellow circle.
I see 93L has been reactivated.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning. A little cooler here this morning too. But the humidity is definitely not lower. Lol.

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Aug 15, 6:15 am CDT

Fog/Mist

73 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 29.93"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °

C)
Visibility: 1.75 mi.

About the same here in the Piny Woods,still no rain,100 or better everyday.Evaporation rate 1.5" a day,Toledo Bend is dropping like a rock,new record low's each day.Not a wishcaster but sure could use a 93L.
Poll:
In the next advisory, Gert will be______.
A.60mph
B.65mph
C.70mph
D.Lower
E.Hurricane
hey 93L welcome back
Quoting SLU:
My take on 93L is that the NHC will be more conservative with it as a result of its slow development and give it a yellow circle.



Yeah that convection can collapse quickly as it approaches the dry air in the Eastern Caribbean




Although the anticyclonic flow aloft may help to ward off the impact of the dry air.
1774. SLU
It's back!

397

WHXX01 KWBC 151132

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1132 UTC MON AUG 15 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110815 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110815 0600 110815 1800 110816 0600 110816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 54.7W 13.8N 57.7W 14.2N 60.9W 15.0N 64.5W

BAMD 13.3N 54.7W 13.7N 57.7W 14.2N 60.6W 14.7N 63.6W

BAMM 13.3N 54.7W 13.8N 57.7W 14.3N 60.7W 15.0N 63.9W

LBAR 13.3N 54.7W 13.7N 58.2W 14.2N 61.8W 14.8N 65.6W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 37KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110817 0600 110818 0600 110819 0600 110820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 68.2W 17.9N 75.4W 19.4N 81.0W 20.6N 85.2W

BAMD 15.4N 66.6W 17.1N 71.9W 18.6N 75.9W 20.0N 78.9W

BAMM 15.8N 67.2W 17.5N 73.1W 19.2N 77.8W 20.8N 81.5W

LBAR 15.5N 69.3W 16.8N 76.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 46KTS 62KTS 72KTS 79KTS

DSHP 46KTS 62KTS 72KTS 79KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 23KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 45.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

93L is really geting its act togeter this AM
Quoting Ribbitman:

About the same here in the Piny Woods,still no rain,100 or better everyday.Evaporation rate 1.5" a day,Toledo Bend is dropping like a rock,new record low's each day.Not a wishcaster but sure could use a 93L.


Yeah I know the lakes area is unbelievable. :( Rayburn's low too. We could use some rain that's for sure. I don't wishcast I Texascast! ;)
invest_REACTIVATE_al932011.ren
1778. SLU
Quoting USAFwxguy:



Yeah that convection can collapse quickly as it approaches the dry air in the Eastern Caribbean




Although the anticyclonic flow aloft may help to ward off the impact of the dry air.


93L has developed its own envelop of moisture and its large cloudmass might help it to modify the surrounding environment.
Here we go again...

Shear is a non-factor for 93L, as of now.

Anyone got a good link to the EURO?
Good morning

93L is doing what most weak waves do once they reach 55W and that is flare up in rather dramatic fashion. This is the "sweet spot" location I posted about a couple days ago.

The wave axis is just about at 55W and the window for development will last until about 63W or about 480 miles from its present location. The 850 vort is very weak but if it slows down a bit it still has time to get something going.

If nothing of note happens by 63W then there would probably not be any significant development before 75W or beyond.

Today's test for 93L will be to hold on to the best convection it has had for several days.


With the lat/lon that the NRL has it at the center would be between the two blobs of moisture. 93L is pushing the western blob in front of it essentially protecting it from dry air.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here we go again...




oh boy tthat sould get this blog going
Great to see you back 93L. Hope you have a nice day
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

93L is doing what most weak waves do once they reach 55W and that is flare up in rather dramatic fashion. This is the "sweet spot" location I posted about a couple days ago.

The wave axis is just about at 55W and the window for development will last until about 63W or about 480 miles from its present location. The 850 vort is very weak but if it slows down a bit it still has time to get something going.

If nothing of note happens by 63W then there would probably not be any significant development before 75W or beyond.

Today's test for 93L will be to hold on to the best convection it has had for several days.
Good morning. How much of a chance would you give it at this point of maintaining convection with the dry air you see in front of it ?
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh boy tthat sould get this blog going


YEP! :)
Quoting weatherh98:
mjo


mojo rising
1791. WxLogic
Well... just noticed 93L really got reactivated. A bit early than I expected.
1792. bappit
Quoting TomTaylor:
Right, but as you just said, these are mid-latitude cyclones. They transport heat over the mid-latitudes. Hardly over the tropics. Tropical cyclones are the best and most efficient way to remove heat from the tropics towards the poles.

To disagree with me you would have to say that is their purpose.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Anyone got a good link to the EURO?


I asked that while ago. Everyone's link not working. :(
Quoting Tazmanian:
ex 93L has really came back too life this AM
def looking mo better
Just updated:

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


mojo rising


When MJO is rising... That means there is rising air in the Atlantic correct?

My observations that are recently must be sinking at least here in fl. since the thunderstorms have not been as widespread and Vigorous(lightning wise) when MJO is rising.

93L is putting on a show this AM.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Morning All.


Good call K-Man 55W and beyond for 93L. Problem now is that is has to hit land somewhere.
Ex-93L is back in the TWO - 10%. 92L at 0%.
1801. SLU
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT MOVING NORTHWARD...STORM CENTER EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 63.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


1802. asdip
Here in St Lucia, wind getting up , thunder and lightening.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

93L is doing what most weak waves do once they reach 55W and that is flare up in rather dramatic fashion. This is the "sweet spot" location I posted about a couple days ago.

The wave axis is just about at 55W and the window for development will last until about 63W or about 480 miles from its present location. The 850 vort is very weak but if it slows down a bit it still has time to get something going.

If nothing of note happens by 63W then there would probably not be any significant development before 75W or beyond.

Today's test for 93L will be to hold on to the best convection it has had for several days.
possible diurnal max?
1000mb
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. How much of a chance would you give it at this point of maintaining convection with the dry air you see in front of it ?


Hi, 93L is still a somewhat fragile system. It does not have a well established circulation and little going on at the 850mb level. Surface convergence is much improved though so it is trying to crank up.

The dry air is being pushed out of the way by the leading edge of the feature as it travels west and the low itself is embedded farther back near 55. I have centered the image below to the approximate position of the low which should help it fight off the dry air.

It is hard to know how the day will play out and there may well be some warming of the cloud tops later. The key will be forward speed. The high in the central Atlantic is quite strong and the steering flow fairly brisk all the way to Jamaica at this time so it will probably be 50/50 for it to hang on to 63W and build.



steering

Gert's pressure drops then. Wonder if it'll manage to scrape hurricane status - a 1 in 3 chance according to the NHC. It'd need to drop a few more millibars first, though.

Imagine Bermuda's a bit squally and wet.

morning to all *raises mug in salutations*
Barbados this morning..wind shifted around.

All boats facing north.
1809. SLU
...10 PERCENT... is a fair assessment from the NHC. They should wait for a low to form before sharpening the orange crayon
1810. WxLogic
Quoting Cotillion:
Gert's pressure drops then. Wonder if it'll manage to scrape hurricane status - a 1 in 3 chance according to the NHC. It'd need to drop a few more millibars first, though.

Imagine Bermuda's a bit squally and wet.

morning to all *raises mug in salutations*


I can see Gert becoming our first minimal HURR.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Ex-93L is back in the TWO - 10%. 92L at 0%.



ex 93L is now 93L
As we start to pick up in activity, please link the advisories and two's. I've seen many of blog page with nothing but repeated advisories and two's and many good posts lost in the fray.

Not that this email will help as I say it every year however, I'll keep trying.
Quoting SLU:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT MOVING NORTHWARD...STORM CENTER EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 63.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


they shouldn;t get too much on Bermuda if Gert stays 005 heading
Good morning everyone, just stopping by for a second before school. I see that Gert strengthened modestly last night, now up to 60 MPH. That being said, and another 24 hours or so to strengthen, I say there is a decent chance Gert becomes the first hurricane of the season. It is being protected by an Upper Level Anti-Cyclone, and dry air in that area is minimal. When recon flies out today they should find a strong tropical storm (65-70 MPH). Unfortunately, I won't be here when they fly out, so I'll have to read back when I get home!

Tropical Storm Gert Visible:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
As we start to pick up in activity, please link the advisories and two's. I've seen many of blog page with nothing but repeated advisories and two's and many good posts lost in the fray.

Not that this email will help as I say it every year however, I'll keep trying.


Ah...Gets posted 20 times..Cant wait for school to start.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning everyone, just stopping by for a second before school. I see that Gert strengthened modestly last night, now up to 60 MPH. That being said, and another 24 hours or so to strengthen, I say there is a decent chance Gert becomes the first hurricane of the season. It is being protected by an Upper Level Anti-Cyclone, and dry air in that area is minimal. When recon flies out today they should find a strong tropical storm (65-70 MPH). Unfortunately, I won't be here when they fly out, so I'll have to read back when I get home!

Tropical Storm Gert Visible:





we got 93L back can you say ouch


Quoting ITCZmike:
Barbados this morning..wind shifted around.

All boats facing north.


That makes sense with surface low pressure to the east
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, 93L is still a somewhat fragile system. It does not have a well established circulation and little going on at the 850mb level. Surface convergence is much improved though so it is trying to crank up.

The dry air is being pushed out of the way by the leading edge of the feature as it travels west and the low itself is embedded farther back near 55. I have centered the image below to the approximate position of the low which should help it fight off the dry air.

It is hard to know how the day will play out and there may well be some warming of the cloud tops later. The key will be forward speed. The high in the central Atlantic is quite strong and the steering flow fairly brisk all the way to Jamaica at this time so it will probably be 50/50 for it to hang on to 63W and build.



steering

via Stormcarib site:

8am and not so much as a fart from Gert.  NO wind, NO rain... not even a drizzle.  
 
.........  COFFEE!
 
sue
1821. SLU
Quoting asdip:
Here in St Lucia, wind getting up , thunder and lightening.


Where are you located?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Anyone got a good link to the EURO?
Link
Quoting hurricane23:


Ah...Gets posted 20 times..Cant wait for school to start.


Just for fun 06z GFS developes the wave currently rolling of africa into a pretty formidable cane.

Quoting kmanislander:


NHC says movement westward at 15-20 mph
1825. asdip
Quoting SLU:


Where are you located?


Marigot Bay. Heavy rain too.
93L has about 24 hours to get to the Windwards. Convection is nice, but probably little underneath yet. Probably more than 10%, but it doesn't have a great deal of time to do something.

Is it an Emily (forms in the nick of time) or a Don (prefers the Western Caribbean) or most tropical waves that do nothing?

TCHP is likely to rise with this one (Tropical Cyclone Hyperbole Potential).
1827. Patrap
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Yep, not ideal for development.It would do much better with 10 to 15. Its current speed will tend to hinder development but not fatal. I have seen TDs form at 20 to 25 but under ideal conditions.
1829. P451
I see that unfortunately my suspicions last night are correct. Gert is going to miss Bermuda and not give her the rains she could use.



That's a shame...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Good morning guys! I see 93L is born again, and check out Gerty on radar...perhaps our hurricane drought will be over today.

Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



pls see post 1815
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Link


Thanks
just checking in, could someone post the TWO and Bermuda radar?

:/
lol
1837. SLU
Quoting asdip:


Marigot Bay. Heavy rain too.
Quoting asdip:


Marigot Bay. Heavy rain too.


Hmmmm ... a lot more is on the way.
Quoting BobinTampa:
just checking in, could someone post the TWO and Bermuda radar?

:/




for the two plzs look at the past commets like 1830
Quoting Tazmanian:




for the two plzs look at the past commets like 1830


or the 10 others
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Doesn't look all that far off being a hurricane, and it has probably another 24 hours of strengthening. We might just scrape 7-1-0.
1841. rod2635
For those needing a break from 93's status in the Tropial ER, invest 98, whose center lost its convection yesterday, has regained it. Still heading Hawaii way. Interesting only in that they don't often get storms...small land mass target, low storm survival rates requiring long westerly tracks to stay amenable water temps.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
possible diurnal max?


Diurnal max is gone for today and wont return until around 5 am tomorrow morning. Diurnal min will be just before sunset today.
Good Morning

1844. HCW
Latest NHC model runs for 93L

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks
most welcome
1846. P451
Quoting SLU:
...10 PERCENT... is a fair assessment from the NHC. They should wait for a low to form before sharpening the orange crayon


Agreed.

It's just not going to happen in time. Every time there is a flareup with this thing it's spoken about as if it's ready to explode. It's not. There is no organization to it. It is a very weak wave that has had a DMax convective burst. It has no surface features beyond the wave axis itself.

This system will continue to wax and wane as it has the past few days while remaining highly disorganized.

It will go through the ECar dead zone and emerge into the WCar. Until 70W I would expect nothing significant to occur.

If there is something left by then and the conditions are favorable beyond 70W then it is something that should once again garner the same level of interest it had when it first exited Africa.

I too was guilty at first to expect a hurricane by now out of 93L. A day removed from it's impressive appearance off of Africa I quickly realized it was in a hostile environment and would stay in that environment and not develop.

It seems some folks are still latched onto that original image and idea and just haven't let it go. Maybe it surprises, maybe it ends up an exception to the rule, but I don't see a single reason why it would, unless these things feed off of internet wishes for organization. It may very well be the last wave that goes through this up and down nature as conditions are changing as we speak. Yet it's clearly not in time for this entity to organize before it heads into the dead zone.

The simple fact is it's a weak wave that underwent a DMax convective burst. It has gotten past the strong steering currents that disrupted it yesterday and thus finds itself in a slightly better environment. That environment is still hostile for cyclogenesis.

I don't get the hype surrounding it. While I don't like the term - this entity has indeed been wishcasting at it's best. A whole week of people freaking out over this thing talking as if the second it set foot into the Caribbean it would explode into a major hurricane.

Truly bizarre.

Whatever happened to "That looks pretty good but let us see it persist." ?????

Now it's just "Wow, that wave that just came off Africa looks good, Cat 5 for NOLA!"

:/





Convection increasing closer to the center.
Quoting hurricane23:


Just for fun 06z GFS developes the wave currently rolling of africa into a pretty formidable cane.

is that the wave coming off africa right now?
1849. ncstorm
I wish we had HH data for Gert...:{
1851. pottery
DAM!
It looks like this Hot Dry weather is going to stay around for a while....
The current model tracks for 93L are disconcerting. The GoM is full of very hot water.
Quoting pottery:
DAM!
It looks like this Hot Dry weather is going to stay around for a while....


Afraid so for you. 93L passing to your North as we discussed a few days ago.
1854. P451
1855. ncstorm
look for another frontal boundary coming off the east coast

93L might end up like Don or Emily if dry air has its say.
Quoting KennyNebraska:
The current model tracks for 93L are disconcerting. The GoM is full of very hot water.


Yes it is.... I can personally attest to the hot water. I was in clear water (tampa fl.) last week and the beach was so hot that I jumped into the water and it was very un-refreshing. I told my wife that I was still sweating in the water.. LOL
1859. spathy
The model forecast for 93L is interesting.
Does anyone think this is likely?


1861. SLU
Quoting pottery:
DAM!
It looks like this Hot Dry weather is going to stay around for a while....


lol.

Intense thunderstorms and heavy rains sweeping across St. Lucia after a week of March-like dry weather. You should get some this afternoon as a result of daytime heating with the increased moisture around now.
Quoting spathy:
The model forecast for 93L is interesting.
Does anyone think this is likely?




Intensity forecasts for a system that is not even a TD yet are unreliable.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Wind shift from the approaching wave. No well defined surface low as yet though, just a broad area of low pressure.
1864. spathy
Quoting kmanislander:


Intensity forecasts for a system that is not even a TD yet are unreliable.


Thanks Kman

I thought that seemed odd.
Quoting kmanislander:


Intensity forecasts for a system that is not even a TD yet are unreliable.


And that might even be an understatement.
1867. P451
Quoting rod2635:
For those needing a break from 93's status in the Tropial ER, invest 98, whose center lost its convection yesterday, has regained it. Still heading Hawaii way. Interesting only in that they don't often get storms...small land mass target, low storm survival rates requiring long westerly tracks to stay amenable water temps.


Was always intrigued by Hawaii's buffer zone. To get a hurricane they have to form to the south and come north through the islands.

I think there may have been one system on record that was a weak hurricane that made the trek and came in from the ESE.

Everything just rapidly dies off when it gets within a day or two of the Island from the ESE. Water temps are one thing but there always seems to be a pocket of strong shear that forms between the islands and the approaching storm as well.



Another piece of the 2011 puzzle:
Surface currents

Quote from AntiguaIsland,blogspot:

We had months of unusual south currents and many of us who were fishing in May and June complained about these currents. It seems as though they hit the Sargasso Sea at a strange angle possibly pushing some of the weed away from what is normally a current free area within the north Atlantic gyre. Its as if - in a swirl - masses of sargassum broke off and probably went north and east into the currents which now have brought the weeds back across from Africa into the Caribbean. People from Tobago to Hispaniola are complaining about masses of weeds. This photo below taken by a friend shows what is normally a nice little windward bay on the Eastern side of Antigua. As you can see, the dock is now surrounded by sargassum.


http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2011/08/sargass um-come-ashore-in-unprecedented.html

Quoting spathy:


Thanks Kman

I thought that seemed odd.


We see this all the time. The models are assuming many things to give the results you see but without a closed low to work with early forecasts for intensity tend to be more wrong than right. Doesn't mean it cannot happen but typically it does not play out that way early on.

Once you have a TD that changes.
1870. P451
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, 93L is still a somewhat fragile system. It does not have a well established circulation and little going on at the 850mb level. Surface convergence is much improved though so it is trying to crank up.

The dry air is being pushed out of the way by the leading edge of the feature as it travels west and the low itself is embedded farther back near 55. I have centered the image below to the approximate position of the low which should help it fight off the dry air.

It is hard to know how the day will play out and there may well be some warming of the cloud tops later. The key will be forward speed. The high in the central Atlantic is quite strong and the steering flow fairly brisk all the way to Jamaica at this time so it will probably be 50/50 for it to hang on to 63W and build.



steering




You've had a real good handle on this system from the start.

A lone voice of reason swamped by days of repeated calls for a major hurricane to develop and decimate the Caribbean.

1871. emcf30
I see 93L was re-activated as many were saying was a possibility on here yesterday. Dry air West of 93L will probably keep it from developing until it reaches the West Caribbean but we are going to have to watch this closely.

Also, our next AOI has come off the cost of Africa. Going to be a interesting couple of weeks
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Another piece of the 2011 puzzle:
Surface currents

Quote from AntiguaIsland,blogspot:

We had months of unusual south currents and many of us who were fishing in May and June complained about these currents. It seems as though they hit the Sargasso Sea at a strange angle possibly pushing some of the weed away from what is normally a current free area within the north Atlantic gyre. Its as if - in a swirl - masses of sargassum broke off and probably went north and east into the currents which now have brought the weeds back across from Africa into the Caribbean. People from Tobago to Hispaniola are complaining about masses of weeds. This photo below taken by a friend shows what is normally a nice little windward bay on the Eastern side of Antigua. As you can see, the dock is now surrounded by sargassum.
This is weird. The sea and shore in East End, Grand Cayman is covered with this. Never saw it like that before.
SUBJECTIVE LIST OF MODEL PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS

The NCEP model suite is upgraded numerous times annually. Since each "model" is actually a system of integrated components, even slight “tweaks” to any of the components can drastically effect the model's performance characteristics. For example, the Global Forecast System (GFS) consists of the initialization scheme (Global Data Assimilation Scheme - GDAS), the Global Model itself, and the post processed grids that are made available for use in grid and grib format. Even a slight modification to any one of these components can drastically effect the perceived performance of the model. As a result it is not only difficult to isolate consistent model performance characteristics (loosely referred to as “bias”) across the model upgrades, but also the source of the bias. subjective list of model performance characteristics (biases) have been obtained via forecasters
in order for EMC to gain a more complete picture of model performance, all users of NCEP model output should provide their subjective observations of model performance by submitting their subjective observations of bias.
This information will be conveyed to HPC and EMC and potentially added to this web page.

Link
Quoting P451:



You've had a real good handle on this system from the start.

A lone voice of reason swamped by days of repeated calls for a major hurricane to develop and decimate the Caribbean.



Thanks, lol. 93L had "teaser" written all over it from the beginning.
1875. P451
1876. emcf30
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932011 08/15/11 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 62 68 74 78 81 82
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 62 68 71 75 78 79
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 41 48 54 63 68 79 88 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 9 13 15 8 18 12 18 10 15 14 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 181 270 258 282 302 268 281 293 301 293 287 285 303
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 156 154 154 153 149 150 156 163 164 168 166
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 160 159 159 156 151 149 154 158 158 160 156
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 11
700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 48 50 49 51 52 54 60 63 60 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 23 22 35 46 29 46 37 37 19 15 9
200 MB DIV -4 0 -2 6 23 36 2 18 21 11 7 15 -2
700-850 TADV 3 0 2 -2 -5 5 5 1 1 -4 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 582 462 386 379 411 303 254 155 54 30 277 321 221
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 56.4 58.0 59.6 61.3 63.0 66.4 69.8 72.9 75.9 78.5 80.9 83.1 85.2
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 70 77 75 80 73 79 104 93 97 115 113 120 127
I am heading out now so everyone have a nice morning. Will look in later to see how things are going.
Interesting gale in the North Atlantic later this week:





1879. P451
Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks, lol. 93L had "teaser" written all over it from the beginning.


It fooled me the first day I'll say that much. So did 92.

After that you could just see the hostile environment unfold and persist in their paths.

Easy to get caught up in an impressive looking blob and forget about the long environment that awaits it.

Didn´t Emily look just like 93L when approaching the islands (A double entity) ?

Wave fresh in the water....

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Ok. Everything's back to normal now. Nothing can come up this way. Strait into Mexico it is. :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is weird. The sea and shore in East End, Grand Cayman is covered with this. Never saw it like that before.


Not to mention South Sound! Worse I've seen since I was a young boy!
1886. SLU
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Another piece of the 2011 puzzle:
Surface currents

Quote from AntiguaIsland,blogspot:

We had months of unusual south currents and many of us who were fishing in May and June complained about these currents. It seems as though they hit the Sargasso Sea at a strange angle possibly pushing some of the weed away from what is normally a current free area within the north Atlantic gyre. Its as if - in a swirl - masses of sargassum broke off and probably went north and east into the currents which now have brought the weeds back across from Africa into the Caribbean. People from Tobago to Hispaniola are complaining about masses of weeds. This photo below taken by a friend shows what is normally a nice little windward bay on the Eastern side of Antigua. As you can see, the dock is now surrounded by sargassum.


http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2011/08/sargass um-come-ashore-in-unprecedented.html



We've had this same sea weed problem in St. Lucia this year too. I saw some of it this morning but thank to 93L, visibility is near 0.
93L looks good at this AM I told you guys I can't wait to see what D-Max has in store for 93L this morn cause I knew that we would have a reactivation and I knew when that models run it will be taking it here to me sadly
1888. ncstorm


AL, 93, 2011081506, 133N, 547W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2011081512, 135N, 564W, 25, 1010, WV
1890. ncstorm


two highs..one in the GOM and one on the East Coast of Fl which will lead to a westward motion for 93L if develops..
1891. P451
Quoting Cotillion:
Interesting gale in the North Atlantic later this week:







I'm assuming that will be from the rather large system that has been affecting us here in the Mid-Atlantic and North East US.

It's been a rather impressive system to say the least. Very late September like. Couldn't be happier it's been in the 60s and had some good soaking rains here in the Lower Hudson Valley of NY.

Was growing tired of Summer.



36hr WV Loop
1873. blsealevel

Too bad that webpage is not kept up to date, still listing biases from 10 years ago.
1893. P451
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
93L looks good at this AM I told you guys I can't wait to see what D-Max has in store for 93L this morn cause I knew that we would have a reactivation and I knew when that models run it will be taking it here to me sadly


DMax has already run it's course.
93L is highly unlikely to develop prior to the islands.
Therefore it's next window of opportunity is beyond 70W.
I think you can rest assured that a Cat 5 is not coming to the Cayman Islands.
Although we all know that won't stop you from predicting every cloud in the Atlantic to have a high chance of doing so.


Quoting KennyNebraska:
The current model tracks for 93L are disconcerting. The GoM is full of very hot water.


No real change in the pattern over the next 7-10 days, trough across the eastern US with ridging across the central US which implies that any storm tracking north of the Antilles should recurve east of the US or a threat to the eastern US if ridging builds in stronger before the trough settles down again.
1895. P451
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Wave fresh in the water....



Shall we predict doom like what was done with 92 and 93?

Or shall we all be a bit wiser and look for persistence and organization?

:)

I'm going with the latter.

Nice looking wave though. Tis the season I suppose. Now all they need is the environment to catch up. It should shortly.
Quoting hurricane23:


No real change in the pattern over the next 7-10 days, trough across the eastern US with ridging across the central US which implies that any storm tracking north of the Antilles should recurve east of the US or a threat to the eastern US if ridging builds in stronger before the trough settles down again.


That is not what this says.

Quoting P451:


Shall we predict doom like what was done with 92 and 93?

Or shall we all be a bit wiser and look for persistence and organization?

:)


I predict a nice sized hurricane in the GoM in about a week from now.

Does that translate to doom?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 12:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2011
Storm Name: Gert (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 11:42:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°28'N 63°16'W (31.4667N 63.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) to the ESE (123°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,440m (4,724ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 194° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:38:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (87°) from the flight level center

We are all so focused on 93L that nobody has noticed that recon has already penetrated Gert and is giving back data.
1900. P451
36hr WV Loop - ending 815AM ET - covering all AOIs of the time frame. 1 hour per frame.

1901. P451
Quoting KennyNebraska:


I predict a nice sized hurricane in the GoM in about a week from now.

Does that translate to doom?


That depends what it's target is. Is it NOLA? If so, yes, DOOM has been declared.

Joking aside...

Out of curiosity, what do you see the hurricane forming from?
Quoting P451:


Shall we predict doom like what was done with 92 and 93?

Or shall we all be a bit wiser and look for persistence and organization?

:)

I'm going with the latter.

Nice looking wave though. Tis the season I suppose. Now all they need is the environment to catch up. It should shortly.
If this one doesnt get cooking, it could indicate a below average CV season; because it sure looks good.
1903. P451


Well....Bermuda won't even get a scrape. Maybe not even a drop of rain.
Quoting KennyNebraska:


That is not what this says.



In my view its highly unlikely this system gets into the gulf. Rediculous ridge over texas should prevent much northward progression. Both the european and gfs global models take this into central america which looks like a good forecast to me at this time.
You should only be interested in Gert if you are a fisherman.
1906. P451
1907. Patrap
Making humor of calamity is the WORST form of Humor here.

Always
1908. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gert
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)


1909. P451
Still more sampling to do...you would think there are higher winds in there somewhere.

1910. Patrap
1911. Patrap
1912. P451
Quoting Patrap:
Making humor of calamity is the WORST form of Humor here.

Always


Predicting doom out of every cloud IS humorous. It's moreso when the cloud is always sent to NOLA, South Florida, the deforested mountains of Haiti, or a Caribbean island of choice - in the form of a CAT 5 (because clearly no one else matters or exists).

If you can't find that humorous I don't know what to tell ya.

Think it over with a Fresca I suppose.

1913. ncstorm
00Z ECWMF still has development of the African wave

Link
1915. scott39
Goodmorning, Isnt the high going to slide more to the W, and cause a weakness in the central/northern GOM?
Quoting P451:


That depends what it's target is. Is it NOLA? If so, yes, DOOM has been declared.

Joking aside...

Out of curiosity, what do you see the hurricane forming from?


93L... and its not going to take a week according to the models.
Hmmm. Kinda interesting from Houston. Says the high may be moving west but the models show no relief. Guess we'll see. Any rain would be nice. :)

SHOULD
SEE THE RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...
THE AREA COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING US ANY BENEFICIAL
RAINS AND A MUCH NEEDED DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE DROUGHT AND THE
RECORD BREAKING SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.

Quoting ncstorm:
00Z ECWMF still has development of the African wave

Link


Been waiting all night for that to work. Lol. Looks like they still take a piece of that GOM front and bring it to TX. Would be nice if the ridge doesn't kill it. AGAIN.
Quoting P451:


DMax has already run it's course.
93L is highly unlikely to develop prior to the islands.
Therefore it's next window of opportunity is beyond 70W.
I think you can rest assured that a Cat 5 is not coming to the Cayman Islands.
Although we all know that won't stop you from predicting every cloud in the Atlantic to have a high chance of doing so.


Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.
re: 1917, AtHomeInTX --- it's this stuck pattern that makes me wonder if we're going to see any change from the weak tropical systems now appearing. If the pattern's stuck here, is it not stuck over Africa and the tropical Atlantic as well? Only thing I see noticeably different in the last 3 weeks is that suddenly we're not firing off major hurricanes in the EPAC. The African waves are still coming off looking amazing, then falling apart in the parched air over the ATL.
1921. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Been waiting all night for that to work. Lol. Looks like they still take a piece of that GOM front and bring it to TX. Would be nice if the ridge doesn't kill it. AGAIN.


if anything, we can say the ECWMF has been consistent in showing that piece of energy and thats saying a whole lot when it comes to the models lately..hopefully texas can get some relief in precip..
1922. rod2635
Quoting P451:


Was always intrigued by Hawaii's buffer zone. To get a hurricane they have to form to the south and come north through the islands.

I think there may have been one system on record that was a weak hurricane that made the trek and came in from the ESE.

Everything just rapidly dies off when it gets within a day or two of the Island from the ESE. Water temps are one thing but there always seems to be a pocket of strong shear that forms between the islands and the approaching storm as well.





Perhaps that's why the model runs seem to flat line at 145 longitude...low confidence of further westerly track?
the HH should fly in to 93L sometime soon they need to they are going to do it either east of the windwards or west of the windwards
For your tropical flavored listening pleasure while blogging:Link
Quoting OrchidGrower:
re: 1917, AtHomeInTX --- it's this stuck pattern that makes me wonder if we're going to see any change from the weak tropical systems now appearing. If the pattern's stuck here, is it not stuck over Africa and the tropical Atlantic as well? Only thing I see noticeably different in the last 3 weeks is that suddenly we're not firing off major hurricanes in the EPAC. The African waves are still coming off looking amazing, then falling apart in the parched air over the ATL.


I don't know if we're going to see this high back off or breakdown. I can hope so at some point. Although with La Nina supposed to come back could keep us dry through the winter. UGH! As far as the EPAC picking up, I think the MJO has been moving through making the environment more conducive for storms. And I think it's now coming into our basin too. May help getting things going in the Atlantic too.
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gert
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




What the hell is that orange line, lol, and why is it coming over my house?

Obviously, that model is out of whack.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.

yep

Quoting Patrap:


look at that Patrap 93L's convection is pushing all that dry air out of its way wow just look at it just completey gone that dry air is
Quoting ncstorm:


if anything, we can say the ECWMF has been consistent in showing that piece of energy and thats saying a whole lot when it comes to the models lately..hopefully texas can get some relief in precip..


Thanks. And you're right that does say something that it didn't drop the whole thing in the next model run. Lol. Guess we'll see if they hold on to developing that African wave now.
Quoting presslord:
For your tropical flavored listening pleasure while blogging:Link

Thanks Presslord...NICE,saved it in favorites. My teens will like this too...First day of school for them, yea! Another still at home til Thurs. Checking in here periodically for ex-93L. BBL reality calling....
1931. ncstorm
Nice bunch of clouds, but they usually won't get named:



Eastern Caribbean not insanely devoid of moisture really

writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2
The come back of invest 93 is a surprise to me. Last night I gave the opinion it was just POOF
850mb vorticity with 93L is weak, and that is being generous:



200mb shows negative vorticity, which would aid in development, should it occur at the lower lvls:
Good morning to all. Looks like 93 is playing hide and go seek. Beautiful graphics guys.
93L looks poised to be the Non-Threat of the Season so far. Perhaps it can get some spin once it gets past the Eastern Caribbean, but until then I would not expect anything to pick up with 93L.

The prevailing winds in the Eastern Caribbean generally will prohibit a storm from developing.
According to the EMCWF,
The wave train might start with the wave that emerges off of Africa.

I see Gert is beginning to get going, it will be interesting to see if she makes a run at hurricane status, anyone have the latest microwave imagery?
morning again.

A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link
Quoting uptxcoast:
A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link

Houston, you have a problem.......
Is 93L related to Emily ?
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Nice bunch of clouds, but they usually won't get named:



Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L looks poised to be the Non-Threat of the Season so far. Perhaps it can get some spin once it gets past the Eastern Caribbean, but until then I would not expect anything to pick up with 93L.

The prevailing winds in the Eastern Caribbean generally will prohibit a storm from developing.

Downcasting?
Good Morning. The peak of the CV season is still one month away and there is no reason, based on 7 storms so far, to think that it will be a below-average CV season. Once the MJO moves into the Atl. basin, we should see a higher frequency of viable CV waves coming off of Africa. Not everyone will develop of course but all we can do is watch and wait at this point; I am confident that we will see several "Hurricanes" this season.......... :)
Quoting PaulinJax:
Is 93L related to Emily ?


No, Emily came much earlier as a wave then 93L later
We'll have to see if that huge wave emerging off Africa can persist over water. It looks pretty good right now.
1950. P451
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.


I'm not talking down to anyone.

I'm giving my opinion on a storm situation that has been continuously hyped out of proportion for days on end.

However I was responding to someone who always forecasts an AOI to develop into a dangerous storm and always forecasts it to go over the Cayman islands.

96L re-activated. Again. Far to the north, and moving away:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108151415
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 382N, 636W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 397N, 631W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 410N, 619W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting Vincent4989:

Downcasting?


If that means not expecting development anytime soon, yes.

The low level vorticity just isn't in place yet, and once it gets into the Eastern Caribbean it become increasingly less likely to get named. However, that does not mean things could change as it moves into the Central and Western Caribbean, where storms generally experience conditions more favorable for development.
1953. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:


93L... and its not going to take a week according to the models.


Given it's history I would be inclined to wait until it reaches the western Caribbean and organizes in some way before trusting any track or intensity model.



This one shows real promise...
Quoting P451:


Given it's history I would be inclined to wait until it reaches the western Caribbean and organizes in some way before trusting any track or intensity model.



For now 93L's really is just an relatively impressive satellite image ... not much else to it. Agree with your assessment.
1956. P451
Quoting USAFwxguy:


If that means not expecting development anytime soon, yes.

The low level vorticity just isn't in place yet, and once it gets into the Eastern Caribbean it become increasingly less likely to get named. However, that does not mean things could change as it moves into the Central and Western Caribbean, where storms generally experience conditions more favorable for development.


Good analysis.

93L is simply a wait and see game. No good has come from the week of hype casting the system...and I see no reason to do it now, either.
The good news of the day so far is that Gert is a small storm and is staying to the right of Bermuda so they should not feel any major impacts as it passes them.
93L looks nice this morning.... right on schedule, too. But there we go.... the twin-lobed structure that's plagued everything coming to the CAR from this direction. I'm starting to think it's a speed feature... these waves seem to be flying along at well over 15 mph, which as kman said earlier is surely not conducive to formation. I actually think if 93L were moving through this area on approach to the Leewards at a slower pace, we'd see TC formation out of it. As it is, it looks like a day of heavy downpours from Barbados to Barbuda....
FWIW, 96L is 270 miles SSE of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and about 425 miles due east of Cape Cod.
Just throwing this out there but if we do go through the entire season without a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or the Northwest Carribean... Oh man is winter going to be fun!
Quoting stillwaiting:
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2


Stillwaiting- Good Morning,Been doing good? so u think it's looking more like 2010 this yr? I kinda do to, the waves come off kind of strong with some good convection and a swirl with them and then becomes a dud. Like u said it looks like part2 too 2010.
Which that is wonderful to have another safe yr.

sheri
new blog
Mother Nature kicked up her heels a bit yesterday. Sadly was more of this than rain. :(

Severe thunderstorm causes minor damage near Orange...


Strong winds blew through parts of Orange County earlier Sunday evening knocking out the power at the Temple Inland Paper Mill on Highway 87. This area was under a severe thunderstorm warning for about 40 minutes Sunday afternoon.
A man got trapped inside and elevator for several minutes before he was rescued by emergency workers.



2004 and 2005 really has skewed people's expectation of what a Hurricane season should bring. That, and every season since has been announced to be "above average" with CONUS threats, etc.... and really other than 2008 with Ike and Gustav, the CONUS has enjoyed fairly tranquil impacts since Wilma.
start to see these waves develop right off the coast of africa now its aug 15
1969. MahFL
Only 5kts of shear all the way to the GOM...




As always take with a pinch of salt.
Quoting stillwaiting:
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2



yes i agree totally the east coast is off the hook for 2011...if 93L does form it will move into the caribbean and then up to the yucatan before finally dying in mexico...
Quoting mcluvincane:


This one shows real promise...



the good looking wave coming off the african coast is about to get swallowed up by the SAL...ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST...
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Just throwing this out there but if we do go through the entire season without a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or the Northwest Carribean... Oh man is winter going to be fun!


I'm already starting to look at this years winter outlook. If you like cold weather you will love it.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes i agree totally the east coast is off the hook for 2011...if 93L does form it will move into the caribbean and then up to the yucatan before finally dying in mexico...


Can't wait to hear the HAARP cpnspiracy casters to start their theories.
Quoting stillwaiting:
writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2


You might be right, but I don't want to hear it.

This season is actually worse so far than last year. At least last year there signs of hope.