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Tropical Depression Seven Forms Near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:37 AM GMT on September 05, 2013

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in Puerto Rico, as Tropical Depression Seven steadily organizes and moves north-northwest at 2 mph towards the south coast of the island. TD 7 had been moving to the northwest most of Wednesday, and this new NNW motion may be due to the influence of a strong tropical disturbance located about 300 miles to the east-northeast of TD 7. This disturbance to the ENE of TD 7 has greater areal extent and more intense thunderstorms than TD 7, and is a threat to become a tropical depression on its own--NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in their 8 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. If this happens, the disturbance may be able to steal moisture from TD 7 and keep it weaker than it would otherwise become. It is more probable that TD 7 will absorb a portion of the disturbance, stealing some of its moisture and spin, and becoming larger. Heavy thunderstorms from TD 7 have dumped over an inch of rain in many locations in the Virgin Islands and Northern Puerto Rico as of 8 pm AST Wednesday, but TD 7 has contracted, keeping its heaviest rains focused offshore near the center of circulation. These heavy rains will move ashore Thursday morning, bringing three-day rain totals of 5 - 10" to areas along the south coast. Satellite loops show that TD 7 is developing some respectable heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops near its center, and there are good upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. Radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico shows good low-level spiral bands on the storm's southeast side, and TD 7 is not far from becoming Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of TD 7 in its formative stages, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 4, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a full update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1481. SouthernIllinois:

But we all know how important a open mind is, right? You are making headway I see. :)


I have quite an open mind, but not to baseless conspiracy. A Global Hawk Drone hardly has the capacity to do much else than observe and drop sondes.

Instead of looking at the environmental factors that have contributed to the demise and struggles of many tropical cyclones and potential tropical cyclones, jumping to conspiracy seems rather rash, wouldn't you agree? Especially considering the only evidence supporting it is purely circumstantial. Fly drone to investigate storm -> Storm fizzles ≠ weather modification conspiracy. There are a few key steps missing there.
1502. ncstorm
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has downgraded Gabrielle to a tropical depression. The poorly-defined center is located south of the Mona Passage about 80 miles south-southeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and is moving toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, and further weakening is forecast. Gabrielle is expected to degenerate to a remnant low today or Friday as the center moves over the Dominican Republic.
All coastal warnings have been discontinued but a Tropical Storm Watch continues for a portion of the Dominican Republic.
Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible in the mountainous terrain, causing dangerous flash floods and mud slides.
Get the latest on this tropical cyclone, including graphics, on the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
1503. 900MB
Quoting 1454. weathermanwannabe:


Looks to me like that is the "old" LLC that has been ejected and something is trying to reform just off the eastern tip of PR closer to the convection.

Just my personal opinion.


I agree. It has been a battle of the blobs, and perhaps the one to the NE has won out after all? I think there still stands a good chance that we see a new COC near the East Coast of PR.
Discovery Channel had "America's secret locations" last night and talked about HAARP, and governments wanting to control the weather. It is fact they are trying to do it and expect to own the weather by 2025.
This is how the 2013 hurricane season makes me feel..
Quoting 1492. Patrap:


I noticed the Sun goes down and comes up when they flying those 24hr Missions too.


lol, you are right!
And the grand epic that is the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season roles on.
Quoting 1417. Naga5000:


Really, accusations against the NHC suggesting they are committing professional fraud to pad numbers are just absurd. Satellite analysis along with aircraft observations supported a minimal tropical storm last night.


Nag I wasn't accusing NHC of anything just made a little statement. I was here last night and seen all that. Gosh.....

sheri
Quoting 1507. CybrTeddy:
And the grand epic that is the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season roles on.


Epic FAIL!!
1510. SLU
Quoting 1487. weathermanwannabe:


Lot's of PhD met papers on the horizon next year as to this season..................


Clearly there's something out there that has to be discovered and studied so it can be used in future seasons.
Good Morning"..

welcome to

DEPRESSION

: )
1512. Relix
Quoting 1495. SFLWeatherman:
Look at that


Man must be going due west now and heading to the Caymans then!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And the grand epic that is the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season roles on.
NHC is as confuse as the rest of us, saying wind shear isn't strong for this drastic desorganization tells how unpredictable this hurricane season is even to them....
1514. T3CH
Quoting 1501. Naga5000:


I have quite an open mind, but not to baseless conspiracy. A Global Hawk Drone hardly has the capacity to do much else than observe and drop sondes.

Instead of looking at the environmental factors that have contributed to the demise and struggles of many tropical cyclones and potential tropical cyclones, jumping to conspiracy seems rather rash, wouldn't you agree? Especially considering the only evidence supporting it is purely circumstantial. Fly drone to investigate storm -> Storm fizzles %u2260 weather modification conspiracy. There are a few key steps missing there.


Weather modification has been going on for decades in the private, public and military sectors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_modification

The question is not if weather modification is going on but to what extent.
Quoting 1502. ncstorm:
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has downgraded Gabrielle to a tropical depression. The poorly-defined center is located south of the Mona Passage about 80 miles south-southeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and is moving toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, and further weakening is forecast. Gabrielle is expected to degenerate to a remnant low today or Friday as the center moves over the Dominican Republic.
All coastal warnings have been discontinued but a Tropical Storm Watch continues for a portion of the Dominican Republic.
Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible in the mountainous terrain, causing dangerous flash floods and mud slides.
Get the latest on this tropical cyclone, including graphics, on the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov



another one bites the dust/instability

sheri
Quoting 1501. Naga5000:


I have quite an open mind, but not to baseless conspiracy. A Global Hawk Drone hardly has the capacity to do much else than observe and drop sondes.

Instead of looking at the environmental factors that have contributed to the demise and struggles of many tropical cyclones and potential tropical cyclones, jumping to conspiracy seems rather rash, wouldn't you agree? Especially considering the only evidence supporting it is purely circumstantial. Fly drone to investigate storm -> Storm fizzles ≠ weather modification conspiracy. There are a few key steps missing there.


Illogical fallacy is what conspirators eat for breakfast :)
I really hope that Gabrielle pulls an Ophelia (2011) and puts on a show while heading out to sea! :/
1518. flcanes
Ugh. This season is killing me.
I WANT HURRICANES!
Edit: Not landfallers.
A slap in the face you say?.Yep it is indeed
winter comeing early this year for the E coast

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2013


NYZ032-033-042-052100-
/O.NEW.KALY.FZ.W.0005.130906T0600Z-130906T1300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
WARRENSBURG
438 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...WIDESPREAD FROST.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED OR KILLED
IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

You can choose the red pill...or the blue pill

If you want to see how deep the rabbit hole goes
1522. LargoFl
its funny, to me a no hurricane hitting the usa is one VERY GOOD year..yet i read some posts here and i see people sad there arent any hurricanes this year...either they are kids who dont know any better or they are storm followers who dont live anywhere near where a hurricane can hit....I myself am very happy no hurricanes are coming towards us.
Quoting 1514. T3CH:


Weather modification has been going on for decades in the private, public and military sectors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_modification

The question is not if weather modification is going but to what extent.


Not one of those methods have shown to be conclusively effective. I was not arguing that we haven't looked into it, but rather that the struggling season has no evidence pointing towards a weather modification conspiracy at this point. Most of it seems to be atmospheric, and to why that is the case is the real question.
Welcome back Bustcasters....in 3..2..1...
Quoting 1504. RitaEvac:
Discovery Channel had "America's secret locations" last night and talked about HAARP, and governments wanting to control the weather. It is fact they are trying to do it and expect to own the weather by 2025.
LOL they are going to have to finance it by 2025 and add it to our 197 trillion dollar debt by then.
RECON is heading home but stopped by to the E side of PR and nothing at all that indicates a LLC near or around E PR infact pressures are higher that previously recorded 1014mbs
Quoting 1517. Halcyon19:
I really hope that Gabrielle pulls an Ophelia (2011) and puts on a show while heading out to sea! :/



not going too happen
looks like gabrielle and 98l will meet and kiss in the middle of the north atlantic
Quoting 1516. muddertracker:


Illogical fallacy is what conspirators eat for breakfast :)


Maybe since I haven't eaten breakfast my brain isn't operating optimally yet.
Quoting 1510. SLU:


Clearly there's something out there that has to be discovered and studied so it can be used in future seasons.


I've pitched my theory on this and Gabrielle's dissipation only furthers my thinking. But to be fair, it's not exactly a mystery why all these storms have dissipated.

Andrea = impressive June Tropical Storm.
Barry = BoC spinup.
Chantal = fast forward speed due to typical July tradewinds.
Dorian = lack of vertical instability.
Erin = lack of vertical instability.
Fernand = BoC spinup.
Gabrielle = competing equally as well organized tropical wave that killed it.

ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, FIM, UKMET, respective ensembles, are all saying that there's a significant chance of potent tropical cyclone formation occurring off Africa soon and have been saying it for days. Without a doubt it's the best model support we've seen in a year. I think Gabrielle is the last in the anemic line of tropical cyclones we've been seeing.
Quoting 1526. wunderkidcayman:
RECON is heading home but stopped by to the E side of PR and nothing at all that indicates a LLC near or around E PR infact pressures are higher that previously recorded 1014mbs


LLC is booking WEST just south of the DR
Morning all....

My 2013/14 Australian Bushfire Season Forecast blog is now up. Enjoy the read and leave a comment.

Cheers :-)

Link to classic format of my blog here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1534. LargoFl
Quoting 1525. Abacosurf:
LOL they are going to have to finance it by 2025 and add it to our 197 trillion dollar debt by then.


NO Money



But..... there are 2 other facilities in Alaska...

I just don't see Gabrielle going over Hispanola. Seems to me her and the TW to her East are merging and maybe once they merge completely something will reform, all depends on the shear and trough that might pick both of them up and boot them out to sea.
Quoting 1522. LargoFl:
its funny, to me a no hurricane hitting the usa is one VERY GOOD year..yet i read some posts here and i see people sad there arent any hurricanes this year...either they are kids who dont know any better or they are storm followers who dont live anywhere near where a hurricane can hit....I myself am very happy no hurricanes are coming towards us.


I'm rooting for the 1st ever No hurricane season!!!
This forum:

Stage 1: "This season is so B-O-R-I-N-G! We need something to track!"

Stage 2: "An invest! Finally!"

Stage 3: "Wait, it's not going to make it to TD status? B-O-R-I-N-G! We need a tropical storm to track!"

Stage 4: "A tropical storm! Finally!"

Stage 5: "Wait, it's not going to be a hurricane? B-O-R-I-N-G! We need a real storm to track!"

Stage 6: "A hurricane! Finally!"

Stage 7: "Wait, it's only going to be a weak, little Cat 1? B-O-R-I-N-G! We need a major hurricane to follow!"

Stage 8: "A major hurricane! Finally!"

Stage 9: "Wait, it's only going to be a Cat 3? B-O-R-I-N-G! We need a Cat 5 to follow!"

Stage 10: "A Cat 5! Finally!"

Stage 11: "Wait, it's going to be a fish storm? B-O-R-I-N-G! We need a landfalling Cat 5 hurricane to follow!"

Stage 12: "A landfalling Cat 5! Finally!"

Stage 13: "Wait, it's got no chance of coming to my area? B-O-R-I-N-G!"

Stage 14: After dissipation, return to Stage 1.

;-)
1539. guygee
Quoting 1487. weathermanwannabe:


Lot's of PhD met papers on the horizon next year as to this season..................
That is a good thing for sure. If anything there is a human tendency to think we "know it all", instead of realizing just how little we do know! We need a good kick in the rear every once in awhile.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Discovery Channel had "America's secret locations" last night and talked about HAARP, and governments wanting to control the weather. It is fact they are trying to do it and expect to own the weather by 2025.
Sorry, but any nation that tries to control the weather, will eventually disrupt millions of years of natural evolution, specially weather, consequences are unpredictable, and perhaps catastrophic, even destroyed life as we know it.
1541. ricderr
on sale now for just 19.99 at the Waffle House....keeps the NHC drones from seeding your brain and also serves as a rain gauge when they're not flying.

Quoting 1500. SecretStormNerd:


We have no idea what goes on within our government. Do you actually think that if weather modification was happening we would know about it? More money would be spent to cover it up. I can assure you that.

I don't like being labeled a conspiracy theorist. I am open to learning about anything. I like to look at all possibilities. I always ask why and what if. This is my nature.


Question everything. that's a good quality, and don't listen to people trying to shut you down. I have no problem reading about it anyway. I might not believe it, but I always leave room for the "what IF" By the way, Puerto Rico is part of the HAARP project and I think (Not completely sure) that they have one of those gadgets there.


Just Another 2013 Brief Tropical Storm. Fair to say the season is OVER! or shall I say never really got going this year.
I've been following the Tropics since 1995 and I've never seen a season as STRANGE as this one. Things that look promising...in good conditions don't seem to be developing.

The African wave train has been steadily spitting potent systems off the coast...but none seem to want to hold together....and a year that is SUPPOSE to be a Non El-Nino year?

Models have been al over the place...turning a system into a Hurricane....then 24 hours later suggesting that a system will dissapate?

The season is definitely a head scrather
Convection is rebuilding over the LLC


That was one monstrous LTO arc cloud bowing NWD on vis / RGB this morning from decoupled Gabrielle, evidence of collapsing tstms / mid level dry air ingestion... Doubt the detached remnant sfc circ can regenerate, just have to watch if anything can below the mid vort feature to the NE.

None of this a surprise seeing how close together Al-07 was to the ELY wave closing in, the latter more frequently analyzed with broader, sharper apex of mid vorticity...
1547. exray
Quoting 1542. CaneHunter031472:


Q By the way, Puerto Rico is part of the HAARP project and I think (Not completely sure) that they have one of those gadgets there.


What we have here is OTHR (over the horizon radar). One site here in Vieques and the sister site over on the big island. Its aimed southward to monitor the sea traffic (ahem) coming up from Colombia/Venezuela.
1548. MahFL
Quoting 1522. LargoFl:
its funny, to me a no hurricane hitting the usa is one VERY GOOD year..yet i read some posts here and i see people sad there arent any hurricanes this year...either they are kids who dont know any better or they are storm followers who dont live anywhere near where a hurricane can hit....I myself am very happy no hurricanes are coming towards us.


Quite a lot of roofers, white good sellers and tree cutters just to mention a few might disagree with you. Hurricane disasters are good money makers for some people.
1549. Patrap
99l

1550. MahFL
Quoting 1544. NortheastGuy:
....then 24 hours later suggesting that a system will dissapate?

The season is definitely a head scrather


Some models had gabby becoming a Cat4.....sheesh.
1551. Thrawst
LOL
To sum up post 1538. Tropical Depression - a state of being depressed when anything tropical fails to satisfy ones hunger.
A couple of weeks ago i was named a troll because i posted here that this season, in the Atlantic basin, there will be no hurricanes. I will rather see a Hurricane in Mediterranean sea than in Atlantic.
Quoting 1483. washingtonian115:
Actually the snow pack helps us in the end.The winter of 011-012 had little moisture and the spring and summer didn't help.We had to wait until October 2012 to get any real rain.The pattrn turned rainy in October..and the Sandy came along..


Snowpack has tremendous insulating effect further north where it is
reliable. In the DC area it isn't.

I remember one year (1982 or 1983??) in New Jersey where I saw azaleas killed to the
(fortunately deep that time) snowline. I don't remember if it was after the April 6 1982 blizzard or if it was sometime in 1983. Azaleas are normally hardy there so I suspect it was the combination of some growth and buds in April 1982 that I am remembering.
Quoting 1505. washingtonian115:
This is how the 2013 hurricane season makes me feel..

IKR! :P
Can't wait until the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season! :P