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Tropical Depression Nine Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2014

Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy and satellite loops show that ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, October 22, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border may end up impacting whether or not a tropical depression can form in the Western Caribbean from ex-TD 9. The Eastern Pacific disturbance is close enough to the Western Caribbean to compete for energy and moisture, and upper-level outflow from the Eastern Pacific storm could bring high wind shear over the Western Caribbean. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the Eastern Pacific disturbance by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm will move slowly northwards, and will likely bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico and Guatemala this weekend.

Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) has formed, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a low chance of developing by Friday, but notes conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F.) The storm will head slowly northwards over the next week, and is not a threat to make landfall for at least five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday morning, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr.Masters! Welcome back Ike!
thanks doc
doc takes the wind out of my sails of what i was posting on the last blog...but i'll add it here anyways....



now...let me be the first to say.....although most models have dropped td9...you have moisture entering the carribean....i'd personally...keep a watch there for a day or two...might be futile...and i'd never give a definite statement of certainty....but...albeit small....there's a chance of regeneration....my guess....seeing i haven't looked at shear forecasts yet this morning...but i would think when i do look at them....shear will be a factor


Disastrous: Left Behind
By: Portlight , 12:02 PM CDT on October 22, 2014



Disastrous: Left Behind - Coming to a Location Near You!

We’ll soon begin the touring phase of our photo documentary project, “Disastrous: Left Behind.” This collection of photographs illustrates the failures of non-inclusive emergency planning, and the often devastating aftermath for our community. Our goal is to take the exhibit on a nationwide tour of city and town halls, public libraries, medical/hospital complexes, and other appropriate public art/display spaces. Follow the exhibit page on Facebook for announcements about the launch event, and for new venues as we add them to the tour schedule. Please “Share” with your friends and family, too!

Hampton Roads Getting It Right Conference

We are excited to announce that Portlight Strategies will host a Getting It Right Conference in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. We will announce the dates of the conference soon! Expect late winter of 2015.

Barometer Bob

In August, we launched a fundraising effort for a good friend of the weather community, Bob Brookens, aka Barometer Bob. Over the last year or so, Bob has been diagnosed with several autoimmune disorders, and their rapid progression left him in need of a power wheelchair and vehicle lift for better mobility outside his home. We’re happy to report that over the last several weeks, we were able to raise the necessary funds to purchase a gently used chair and lift for Bob, from someone in the same area where he lives. Bob’s family will be picking up this equipment for him in the next week or so, and helping to install the lift.

Once again, your kindness and generosity have helped to provide mobility and independence to a friend in need.Bob expressed his gratitude on Facebook, saying, “Thank you, Portlight Strategies…and to all that donated to the fundraiser to help my wife and me.”

As always, we thank you for your continued support of our work!!
Convection is actually increasing on ex TD9.

When it gets offshore it's going to explode !
From last blog

Quoting ncstorm:


no just took a break from work and all I see is just ridiculing especially from you....its childish..

I never even see you post anything weather related..heck I wouldn't even mind you posting pictures from a golf course in "Florida" from your area but you don't even do that..you just constantly either going at Scott or WKC..what has these particular posters wrong you on as you can't seem to let it go?

just give it a rest please..


Thank god for you you da man

From last blog

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok got a decent visible look at postTD9 and the LLC Is still going strong
And it has some convection(weak at this time) in and around the LLC

If this continues the system should survive its track right into the Caribbean

With shear in the NW Carib at 10-15kts with 20kts here and there and hot hot waters thing might get interesting during the next day or two

But the dry air might still pose a problem

Keep eyes on that
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting 7. MahFL:

When it gets offshore it's going to explode !


I don't know about that but we should keep an eye on it just in case it decides to do something. Conditions do not appear as favorable as some of the models were suggesting yesterday.
Silly question - does some of the missing satellite data not making to the US models also not making into the international globals?

Is the whole world of global medium range forecasting going to heck in a handbasket?


NOUS42 KWNO 230254
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0253Z THU OCT 23 2014
00Z NCEP MODELS ARE ON SCHEDULE..
00Z RAOB RECAP..
70414/SYA - 10145; UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS..
76405/LAP - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 1007 TO 700MB.. SUPER
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE..
72712/CAR - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM; IN FOR THE GFS..
72363/AMA - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM AND GFS..
NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z
MODEL INGEST..
NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
GOES RADIANCES
GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS
THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE
MODELS..
MODIS IR AND WV WINDS
OMI OZONE DATA
AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA
COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA
NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA
PRODUCTS..
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE
DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE
DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE..
SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Quoting MahFL:
Convection is actually increasing on ex TD9.



Yep

Plus with the decreasing shear




And hot hot SSTs
When it comes into the NW Carib we might just see much more of it
Thanks Doc..I say T.D.9 refires in the Western Caribbean, if not, as long as its cooked all the way , I,m not worried.
Quoting 12. wunderkidcayman:



Yep

Plus with the decreasing shear




And hot hot SSTs
When it comes into the NW Carib we might just see much more of it


SST's are plenty warm enough to develop a strong hurricane. But look at the wind shear just to the north (it's going to rise) and look at post #6 showing the dry air plowing southward. Maybe by Sunday/Monday timeframe we'll see conditions improve a bit. The models are not at all excited about the NW Caribbean anymore.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 23 2014
==============================

The well marked low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists.

The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours. It is likely to move initially in a northwest direction and subsequently may intensify into a cyclonic storm.

Currently the convection is yet to be organized. However, the convective clusters have developed during past 24 hrs and their depth has increased. The convection is sheared to the southwest of the system center. Available buoy data suggests the central pressure to be about 1008 hPa and maximum sustained wind speed to be about 15-20 knots.

The sea surface temperature around the region of well marked low pressure area is warm (28-30C). The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear is about 10-20 knots (moderate. However, there is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 500 hPa level runs along 18.0N and at 200 hPa level runs along 120n. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the well marked low pressure area into depression during next 24-48 hrs and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm. The MJO index now lies in phase 1 and would move into phase 2 with amplitude > 1 during next 48 hrs. This will be favorable for both genesis and intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea by amplifying the convection.

Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about northwestward/north-northwestward movement initially up to 72 hrs. Thereafter, ECMWF model suggests northeastward movement towards Gujarat coast and other models suggest northwest/ west-northwestward movement towards south Oman/Yemen coast. Considering above diagnosis and prognosis, the well marked low pressure area would move northwestwards initially and concentrate into a depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a cyclonic storm=

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
24 HRS MODERATE
48 HRS HIGH
72 HRS HIGH
Thank you Dr. Masters....I click on the NHC and everything was gone. Pleasant surprise
Ana..

Models are saying the mid Atlantic/New England will deal with another nor'easter by Halloween.


Near Socotra Island (Yemen) in 72 hours.
Thanks Doc! It appears FL is safe once again from a Cat 1 or 2 barreling down on it. Strike up another X for the GFS some where posting yesterday as the 'end of the long streak to a FL hurricane landfall'. So much crow to be handed out today! On a side note, the weekend is almost here and the beautiful weather continues for at least the next week. The top is off my jeep which makes for a cool morning but by afternoon its perfect. Enjoy the day.

Word of the day is DRY. Thats what most of us in the SE will have the next week, except for those in the Keys.
Quoting jrweatherman:


SST's are plenty warm enough to develop a strong hurricane. But look at the wind shear just to the north (it's going to rise) and look at post #6 showing the dry air plowing southward. Maybe by Sunday/Monday timeframe we'll see conditions improve a bit. The models are not at all excited about the NW Caribbean anymore.


Well so far shear has been falling not rising so that contradicts that

And the dry air on the S part not as bad as the N part

I don't think the dry air will come down that far S that it goes into it or atleast that much

So no Doom(TM)?
Quoting hydrus:
Ana..



Ana is supposed to be headed to the Pacific NW.
Quoting 22. WxGuy2014:

Thanks Doc! It appears FL is safe once again from a Cat 1 or 2 barreling down on it. Strike up another X for the GFS some where posting yesterday as the 'end of the long streak to a FL hurricane landfall'. So much crow to be handed out today! On a side note, the weekend is almost here and the beautiful weather continues for at least the next week. The top is off my jeep which makes for a cool morning but by afternoon its perfect. Enjoy the day.

Word of the day is DRY. Thats what most of us in the SE will have the next week, except for those in the Keys.



^ Most humble post of the year. Congrats.

I still think this could regenerate in the western Caribbean. We will see what happens.
Dry and perhaps a little above average temperatures. Cant complain, winter can wait.

Quoting 17. hydrus:

Ana..




she went west to come back east to give the west a shower :) its early
Quoting 17. hydrus:

Ana..




ana is looking more like a STS this AM
td 9 could just turn into a broad low level trough. some troughs in this area of the world can produce large amounts of rain . good luck to those are going to get really wet. cuba & hispanola &keys
Moisture path that Ana should follow....Right into the N.W.U.S.

18.4 / 90.5 1006 mb

Not bad for a weak system that has been over land for 12 hours plus.
I'm not 100% sure Post -TD9 will get into the Caribbean..

Too early to tell though. It just seems to be moving to the southeast which could take it a little too far south.

good blog
Sorry, I am not taking my eyes off the area just yet. With many of the systems down, I don't exactly have that much faith in their accuracy of nothing developing. The dry air coming down definitely would have a negative impact, but there is still plenty of energy and moisture in the NW Caribbean.

Quoting kmanislander:
18.4 / 90.5 1006 mb

Not bad for a weak system that has been over land for 12 hours plus.


Well 9hrs+

But head doing really really well

Quoting Grothar:
Sorry, I am not taking my eyes off the area just yet. With many of the systems down, I don't exactly have that much faith in their accuracy of nothing developing. The dry air coming down definitely would have a negative impact, but there is still plenty of energy and moisture in the NW Caribbean.


Agreed
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters,


something to watch here
Quoting 38. Grothar:

Sorry, I am not taking my eyes off the area just yet. With many of the systems down, I don't exactly have that much faith in their accuracy of nothing developing. The dry air coming down definitely would have a negative impact, but there is still plenty of energy and moisture in the NW Caribbean.


Yep..I was wondering if the Antilles blob will join the N.W. Caribbean blob...This would increase chances of a system forming.
Belize forecast discussion

DATE: THURSDAY 23RD OCTOBER 2014 (MORNING)
SKIES WERE CLOUDY LAST NIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN DISTRICTS AT FIRST, THEN OVR THE MAYA MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE TOLEDO DISTRICT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT .
AT UPPER-LEVELS, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN, CENTRAL AMERICA , SUPPORTS A NW'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A SE'LY FLOW AT 300MB. CONDITIONS ARE UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND THE FLOW IS SW'LY. AT 850MB, A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXIST. AT THE SURFACE, THE 06Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A 1004MB LOW OVER YUCATAN. A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PLACED NEAR 60W. THE 12Z SOUNDING DATA IS UNAVAILABLE.
THURS AND THURS NIGHT:
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A S'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND 300MB. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE SOUTH. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST'ERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.25IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT:
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A NE'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A NW'LY FLOW AT 300MB, WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE EAST. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST. GFS SHOWS .0IN-.25IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS UP TO 1.0IN/3HRS.
FORECAST: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER INLAND AND NORTHEN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT: CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS.
MARINE: WINDS: W/SW 5-10KT SEAS: SLIGHT TO LIGHT CHOP. WAVES:1-3 FT. ; GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS THIS MORNING, INCREASING OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER: Wellington
Wow! The 12zNam really moves the low (ex-09) south. Seems to take it away from the ill-effects of the dry air/wind sheer of the approaching front, allowing it to regenerate.

Quoting 47. fmbill:

Wow! The 12zNam really moves the low (ex-09) south. Seems to take it away from the ill-effects of the dry air/wind sheer of the approaching front, allowing it to regenerate.
Quoting 39. wunderkidcayman:



Well 9hrs+

But head doing really really well




From the last Discussion

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.

0000 UTC is 7 PM our time yesterday evening so 12 hours plus :-)
Quoting kmanislander:


From the last Discussion

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.

0000 UTC is 7 PM our time yesterday evening so 12 hours plus :-)


I wonder if its still moving at just 5mph? That was its movement the last time I checked when the system was a T.D.

12 hours x 5 mph =60 miles traveled?

Post TD9 is doing a fast walk across the Yucatan.

Quoting kmanislander:


From the last Discussion

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.

0000 UTC is 7 PM our time yesterday evening so 12 hours plus :-)

Well ok 12hrs+
A morning look at sunspot 2192, which has grown even bigger in the past 12-18 hours. Solarham.net mentioned this morning that in terms of size it is now on par with legendary sunspot 486 from the previous solar cycle, responsible for the largest solar flare ever measured and the extreme solar activity and aurora displays that occurred in late October, 2003. Given it's enormous size and magnetic complexity it's a little surprising 2192 has "only" managed to produce a couple low-end X flares, and none of its flares have been producing CMEs. It's in a perfect geoeffective position now though; if something big happens today, we'll be staring right at it.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I wonder if its still moving at just 5mph? That was its movement the last time I checked when the system was a T.D.

12 hours x 5 mph =60 miles traveled?

Post TD9 is doing a fast walk across the Yucatan.


I think it's moving a wee bit faster
Quoting 52. MAweatherboy1:

A morning look at sunspot 2192, which has grown even bigger in the past 12-18 hours. Solarham.net mentioned this morning that in terms of size it is now on par with legendary sunspot 486 from the previous solar cycle, responsible for the largest solar flare ever measured and the extreme solar activity and aurora displays that occurred in late October, 2003. Given it's enormous size and magnetic complexity it's a little surprising 2192 has "only" managed to produce a couple low-end X flares, and none of its flares have been producing CMEs. It's in a perfect geoeffective position now though; if something big happens today, we'll be staring right at it.


I saw on TV this morning that the sunspot is larger than Jupiter. Amazing!
Quoting 50. Sfloridacat5:



I wonder if its still moving at just 5mph? That was its movement the last time I checked when the system was a T.D.

12 hours x 5 mph =60 miles traveled?

Post TD9 is doing a fast walk across the Yucatan.




I do not know the forward speed but from the navy satellite imagery it appears to be close to half way across. The latter half of the trek over land will bring some interaction with higher terrain than the flatter part of the Northern Yucatan. This will hurt the low somewhat but should allow for convective blow up due to orographic lift. Overall perhaps these events will balance each other out.

I expect to see continued increase in convection today.
Keeper and anyone else who cares to answer- I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage. Any areas I should be aware of regarding nasty weather. I am picking a friend up in Montana, so I am planning on going the central access route.up thru Canada.

I know hard to predict what will be there in a week... But sometimes you get an idea of a weather system moving through the area. And, yes always check travel weather before I leave (When possible). I am kinda of limited in Florida though - it is either the turnpike or I-95 and at times they are so close you can see one from the other.
Quoting 38. Grothar:

Sorry, I am not taking my eyes off the area just yet. With many of the systems down, I don't exactly have that much faith in their accuracy of nothing developing. The dry air coming down definitely would have a negative impact, but there is still plenty of energy and moisture in the NW Caribbean.




Is there any spin to those blobs under Cuba? I mentioned them yesterday because they look like fierce rainstorms at the very least.
Thank you very much for the update, doc!

Europe is still dealing with Ex-Gonzalo. The storm, for example, caused flooding in Slovenia:


Published today:
The last night in Slovenia brought heavy showers, strong wind, and flooded roads. The quantity of rain that fell in eight hours equals the monthly average for October. This is the catastrophic result of heavy rain around Ljubljana.

Moreover up to regionally 150cm (59inches) of snow in Austria.


Webcamshot from Zillertal, Austria. Source.

One persistent guy, lol. Ex-Gonzalo is now a cut-off low over the Mediterranean:



Quoting barbamz:
Thank you very much for the update, doc!

Europe is still dealing with Ex-Gonzalo. The storm, for example, caused flooding in Slovenia:


Published today:
The last night in Slovenia brought heavy showers, strong wind, and flooded roads. The quantity of rain that fell in eight hours equals the monthly average for October. This is the catastrophic result of heavy rain around Ljubljana.

Moreover up to regionally 150cm (59inches) of snow in Austria.


Webcamshot from Zillertal, Austria. Source.


Despite the flooding the country side looks beautiful.


850mb vorticity is really strung out from ex TD9 all the way to South Florida. If something were to develop in the NW Caribbean, the vort over the Yucatan needs to separate itself.
Thank you for the updated blog entry Dr. Masters..
Activity still possible..
Dry air entrenched here for the State Fair..
Fantastic weather..
its still rainning here in new haven,conn
Quoting 56. Dakster:

Keeper and anyone else who cares to answer- I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage. Any areas I should be aware of regarding nasty weather. I am picking a friend up in Montana, so I am planning on going the central access route.up thru Canada.

I know hard to predict what will be there in a week... But sometimes you get an idea of a weather system moving through the area. And, yes always check travel weather before I leave (When possible). I am kinda of limited in Florida though - it is either the turnpike or I-95 and at times they are so close you can see one from the other.


I can't answer your question but that is a crazy drive. Be careful and pay close attention to the local NWS offices.
Oct .23, 2014 10:16 am ET
Northeast |
- The Nor'easter churns along the southeast New England coast today and chugs toward the Canadian Maritimes later tonight and Friday.
- A soaking rain covers eastern New York and New England with lighter rain and showers in western New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey today.
- Tonight the rain tapers off in all locations except northern New York and northern New England where it remains all night.
- Lingering showers continue in northern New York and northern New England Friday.
- Northeast winds of 15 to 35 mph with gusts over 45 mph are likely along the northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine coasts.
- Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible due to those strong winds.
- Gusty northwest winds are likely from the coasts of Rhode Island and Connecticut south to eastern Virginia.
- These winds will be offshore so no beach flooding is expected.
- However, some minor over wash from back bays could occur on western shores of any barrier islands.
- Conditions improve in all areas Friday as the storm moves away.
- High temperatures Thursday will be in the 50s north and upper 50s and 60s south.

quoting 58. barbamz

(snip)
Europe is still dealing with Ex-Gonzalo. The storm, for example, caused flooding in Slovenia:
(snip)

Thanks for the Video, that is just nasty, those folks can't catch a break....
Quoting kmanislander:


I do not know the forward speed but from the navy satellite imagery it appears to be close to half way across. The latter half of the trek over land will bring some interaction with higher terrain than the flatter part of the Northern Yucatan. This will hurt the low somewhat but should allow for convective blow up due to orographic lift. Overall perhaps these events will balance each other out.

I expect to see continued increase in convection today.


The increase of convection should give the spin a bit of a push
Also once it hits the NW Carib waters we should see more increase of convection

Quoting jrweatherman:


I can't answer your question but that is a crazy drive. Be careful and pay close attention to the local NWS offices.


All wheel drive, snow tires, and some chains

The weather is already getting bad in the interior areas of Alaska.
Be prepared for snow covered roads or snowfall once in northern Canada and Alaska.

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

FLOODING: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY,
AND POSSIBLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT, WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS FOR BOATERS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE METRO
AREAS.
nice base for the european mountains. longterm water supply & good skiing this winter
Quoting kmanislander:


I do not know the forward speed but from the navy satellite imagery it appears to be close to half way across. The latter half of the trek over land will bring some interaction with higher terrain than the flatter part of the Northern Yucatan. This will hurt the low somewhat but should allow for convective blow up due to orographic lift. Overall perhaps these events will balance each other out.

I expect to see continued increase in convection today.


I just checked and yes it's higher terrain but it's still relatively flat so yeah it's higher but not than high to cause too much interference with the with the low

Good afternoon everyone.

GOES Satellites back up and running.



And with that the GFS is back onboard with development.

Hi nrt. Now that things are back in the sat feeds,will the 12z model package be with all the information or is better to wait for the 00z?
Experimental FIM-9 showing a small system. Remember these small systems can ramp up quick or wind down just as quick due to small changes in the environment.

This area east Cozumel needs to be watched as there appears to be a circulation developing. By looking at some of the 12Z models they show this area drifting SE before turning back to the NNW.



The images never show up. :/
http://weather.jacksonville.com/tropical/maps/wv/ca ribbean/latest.html



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
*sighs* This is why I'm done with this blog for a while.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This area east Cozumel needs to be watched as there appears to be a circulation developing. By looking at some of the 12Z models they show this area drifting SE before turning back to the NNW.





GFS in 24 hours shows the system just south of Florida.
It could get stronger than the GFS shows, but dry air is going to fight it on the north side.

Quoting 76. TimTheWxMan:






Quoting 80. TimTheWxMan:

*sighs* This is why I'm done with this blog for a while.


Address of the image:
http://sats.hamweather.net/wxwnJ8ks83jnvl3/640x48 0/crb_wv.jpg

This one can be posted when you copy (and paste) the image-address which shows up when you do a right-click on your mouse (when using firefox). The other one may not be postable at all as a picture, and this applies to html sites too.
Quoting 78. TimTheWxMan:

The images never show up. :/


You have to use the link to the image itself, not the page. IOW, this:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8sht.GIF

...and NOT this:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Quoting 56. Dakster:

Keeper and anyone else who cares to answer- I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage. Any areas I should be aware of regarding nasty weather. I am picking a friend up in Montana, so I am planning on going the central access route.up thru Canada.

I know hard to predict what will be there in a week... But sometimes you get an idea of a weather system moving through the area. And, yes always check travel weather before I leave (When possible). I am kinda of limited in Florida though - it is either the turnpike or I-95 and at times they are so close you can see one from the other.
Dak...I drove to Fairbanks and back many years ago...That is when the last 1500 miles was gravel road (Alcan Highway) . At that time winter was the best time to travel because the gravel would freeze and not break windows and be so dusty.... My ex was stationed at Eielson AFB way back then....We drove up in February and back in December, almost 2 years later...Beautiful country, but dark most of the time in winter. We did this in a 1970 VW bug no less.... It took 11 days, 12 hours a day. but "I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now"
The blob near W Cuba is suppose to be the non tropical entity that will merge with the front ... I think
Quoting 56. Dakster:

Keeper and anyone else who cares to answer- I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage. Any areas I should be aware of regarding nasty weather. I am picking a friend up in Montana, so I am planning on going the central access route.up thru Canada.

I know hard to predict what will be there in a week... But sometimes you get an idea of a weather system moving through the area. And, yes always check travel weather before I leave (When possible). I am kinda of limited in Florida though - it is either the turnpike or I-95 and at times they are so close you can see one from the other.


If you go to http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ and click on the travel hazard forecast(Yellow symbol with car skidding) on top right you can enter your starting and ending locations and get a basic forecast.
Quoting 74. Tropicsweatherpr:

Hi nrt. Now that things are back in the sat feeds,will the 12z model package be with all the information or is better to wait for the 00z?


I would check the Model Diagnostic Discussion and see what they say. Most of the data has been back since 23/00Z.
Quoting 73. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good afternoon everyone.

GOES Satellites back up and running.



And with that the GFS is back onboard with development.




That is about where the low now moving across the Yucatan should finish up if it maintains a SE trajectory. Convection continuing to build over land and vort max expanding. I don't think this is over just yet.



Some of the sat images for the West Coast (Pacific) haven't been restored yet. I have been using the Navy site for a few days. Not much to see anyways....
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:17 AM PDT on October 23, 2014
Clear
71.8 °F
Heat Index: 77 °F
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 42 °F

Wind: 6.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
The blob near W Cuba is suppose to be the non tropical entity that will merge with the front ... I think


Yes, that's the forecast. Mostly frontal related in the eyes of the NHC.
Right now the NHC gives it 0% chance of development.
Ghcc visible loop of x09L, looks better today than it did yesterday.


Conditions at 42056 as of
(10:50 am CDT)
1550 GMT on 10/23/2014:
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 300 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
93. JRRP


tree come down from the big northeaster in new haven,conn
Quoting kmanislander:


That is about where the low now moving across the Yucatan should finish up if it maintains a SE trajectory. Convection continuing to build over land and vort max expanding. I don't think this is over just yet.





Agreed

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Ghcc visible loop of x09L, looks better today than it did yesterday.


Yes agreed

I think NHC might have jumped the gun dropping it altogether
Quoting 52. MAweatherboy1:

A morning look at sunspot 2192, which has grown even bigger in the past 12-18 hours. Solarham.net mentioned this morning that in terms of size it is now on par with legendary sunspot 486 from the previous solar cycle, responsible for the largest solar flare ever measured and the extreme solar activity and aurora displays that occurred in late October, 2003. Given it's enormous size and magnetic complexity it's a little surprising 2192 has "only" managed to produce a couple low-end X flares, and none of its flares have been producing CMEs. It's in a perfect geoeffective position now though; if something big happens today, we'll be staring right at it.




This solar cycle is wayyy less active then the last one.:)
97. SLU
Quoting 93. JRRP:




Probably won't happen ....
I think the time has come and gone for anything to develop now. Cold front comes, brings drier air and more wind shear. There would have to be a significant change in upper air pattern and water vapor in the GOM. I mean, anything is possible, but hard to see anything growing big despite the warm SST's. lot of dry air next week in the GOM.
99. 7544
hi all is that blob by the yucatan moving ne to fl thanks
Quite frankly, compared to the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, the ingridients are very different this year and the past 9 years, i.e., upper air pattern, persistent troughs, dry air, etc....
Quoting 73. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good afternoon everyone.

GOES Satellites back up and running.



And with that the GFS is back onboard with development.




They were never down in the first place, NCEP/NESDIS said it was an issue with connection. They've always been working it has just been a network problem stateside that prevented data from getting into models/satellite images.
GFS kills it.
Quoting 94. hurricanes2018:



tree come down from the big northeaster in new haven,conn
wow!!
does anyone have the water vapor and wind shear report for the NW Caribbean and GOM next week? If anything does develop, both of those would have to be in the system's favor
Glad to see the Arabian Sea system mentioned! Could be a rather nasty storm based on current model guidance. The Euro has it as a strengthening 958 mb system:



The CMC has a 961 mb system:



The GFS also shows a 961 mb system:



If it does indeed hit as a major hurricane, it'll be the first time since 1999 that India has been hit by two major hurricanes in the same year (and only the second time ever from what I can tell)!

P.S: I saw it first. ;)




red tree to


The daily afternoon storm approaching Florida ..... uuups, no, sorry, this is the magnetogramm of giant sunspot AR2192 ;-)
Source.

And here are some really skillful weather impressions from Greenland:
Photographer Murray Fredericks braves Greenland's ice sheet
BBC, 23 October 2014 Last updated at 00:05 GMTBy Saffron Howden Sydney, Australia

Have a nice evening everybody; I'm out for today.
And with that the GFS is back onboard with development.

And kills it as quickly as it develops it. Need to see if it is more bullish with the next run.
keys all reporting ENE winds in the 20 knt range. Near doom.
So nice to see the satellite data disseminating properly again:)

Fresh ASCAT of ex-09L..
Quoting Abacosurf:
keys all reporting ENE winds in the 20 knt range. Near doom.


High pressure is trying to build into the area.

I'm in Fort Myers and we have a beautiful NE wind around 20 mph and lots of sun. It feels great outside with temperatures only in the low 80s.

I'd like to add only 1.24" of rain this month with dry weather in the forecast until late next week.
112. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


Probably won't happen ....

yeah is 2014...
i think the low to watch is the leftovers of the cyclone moving into belize surprised the leftovers are not even a invest.
well it looks like this system will not be developing.. too much dry air and the conditions just aren't there to support it's development. the basin appears to now be shutdown.
Acording to the weather services in Honduras and Belize, besides de NHC, a Cold Front will be in the NW Caribbean saturday and Sunday. They dont even mention a low pressure or something like that, so i guess nothing will happen there.
Quoting 114. MiamiHeat305:

well it looks like this system will not be developing.. too much dry air and the conditions just aren't there to support it's development. the basin appears to now be shutdown.


Agree, and NHC think that too.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake
It's back in play....

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
Peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Quoting 110. Skyepony:

So nice to see the satellite data disseminating properly again:)

Fresh ASCAT of ex-09L..



Hey Sky do you know if there is any data avail from the rapidscat on the ISS yet? Tks
The front will have to pull away from ex-TD9 in order for it to develop in the Western Carribean as stated by the latest from the NHC. However, I actually believe the satellite presentation looks better today over land than it looked yesterday in the BOC. Sometimes hard to explain why convection fires over land. Unfortunately, Katrina did not fall apart over South Florida either, and if I remember correctly, looked better on satellite crossing over the state than she looked off the east coast.
Afternoon all.





Code Yellow
Quoting 119. Saltydogbwi1:



Hey Sky do you know if there is any data avail from the rapidscat on the ISS yet? Tks


As far as I know they are still testing & calibrating.
Hello everybody!!!, just wondering is that huge blob East of the Yucatan Peninsula will move over South Florida?, it looks very strong!!!!, and I can see hints of a twist in the clouds,don't know how far South the front will come? maybe all depends on how south this front become stationary that we get all that bad weather here in south Miami,FLorida.
We have near 100% chance of rain today in our area but just clouds not rain so far,but that blob looks impressive!! any thoughts if we here in Miami will be affect it by this system?, thank you!!!.
El Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Honduras (SMN), informa al público en

general y a los comités de emergencia, contingencias y gestión del riesgo que

para el día de mañana viernes 24 del presente mes; se espera la llegada al Golfo

de Honduras del primer FRENTE FRIO, esperando que los vientos en superficie

cambien de dirección con componentes del norte y noroeste, por lo que los efectos

sobre el territorio nacional se incrementarán para las próximas 72 horas respecto a

los previsto en nuestro pronostico general.

Las cantidades de lluvias y lloviznas oscilarán entre los 60 y 80 mm, con máximos

acumulados de 100 a 150 milímetros en las próximas 72 horas.

Especialmente sobre los departamentos de: Islas de la Bahía, Cortes, Copan,

Santa Barbará, Atlántida y el norte de Yoro.

Las temperaturas ambientes tendrán un descenso de entre uno a dos grados

Celsius durante el fin de semana, generando una sensación térmica de hasta

cuatro grados Celsius en el territorio nacional.

Los vientos frescos del norte y noroeste generarán rachas de hasta 40 km/h sobre

la región: Insular, Norte, Occidente, Central los oleajes en el mar Caribe podrían

oscilar entre 4 a 6 Pies y en el Pacifico de 3 a 5 pies.

El servicio Meteorológico nacional de Honduras continuara atento al

comportamiento de las condiciones atmosféricas y de ser necesario emitirá un

nuevo informe.

Elaborado: 11:00 A.M. hora local

Tegucigalpa M.D.C 23 de Octubre 2014

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Gestión de Pronósticos
Quoting 122. Sfloridacat5:

Code Yellow


it's important to note it only has a 1/10 chance of developing into a tropical system but even if it were to which seems highly unlikely at this time it would probably be weak and last very short time. much less affect florida as a hurricane like some of the models has been predicting..
Nice wave moving through the Windwards.



When I tell you not to take your eyes off something, you better listen. :)

Possible blob alert when I wake up from my nap.

Quoting MiamiHeat305:

it's important to note it only has a 1/10 chance of developing into a tropical system but even if it were to which seems highly unlikely at this time it would probably be weak and last very long. much less affect florida as a hurricane like some of the models has been predicting..


Yeah, but just a little while ago it was a dead system with 0% chance of development.

At this time I haven't see any model support to show a system forming in the western Caribbean and moving north and affecting Florida. So the odds are very low.

GEM doesn't count. It forms a system that comes from the east towards Florida.
First sign of Fall in Florida.

Post TD9 LLC is spinning faster and overall the LLC is moving faster E-ESE

Convection is rebuilding over and around the LLC a

NHC brings back TD9 to the TWO
Quoting 129. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, but just a little while ago it was a dead system with 0% chance of development.

At this time I haven't see any model support to show a system forming in the western Caribbean and moving north and affecting Florida. So the odds are very low.

GEM doesn't count. It forms a system that comes from the east towards Florida.

i actually went through wilma in 2005 and most storms that form in october usually come from the west.. anything in the record books coming from the east this late in the season?
AL 94 2014102318 BEST 0 181N 900W 20 1007 LO
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2014102318 BEST 0 181N 900W 20 1007 LO

Sweet
So the question is if it redevelops will it be TD9 or will it be TD10
I think Jeff is confused. The GFS model clearly shows TD 9 re-forming over the bahamas on Friday as it moves northeast. The low in the western Caribbean that may show up over the weekend or next week is a totally different low.
I saw this on NBCnews this morning.
I have since found out its fake, but it fooled NBCnews. They have since dropped the story from their website. They even said you could purchase them for $10K

HuvR - Hoverboards - they're crazy and hard to believe.

Off topic but very science related.

Link Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Sweet
So the question is if it redevelops will it be TD9 or will it be TD10

TD9.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Sweet
So the question is if it redevelops will it be TD9 or will it be TD10

The circulation hasn't dissipated--TD9.
They fooled NBCnews this morning with the story.
Quoting 139. Sfloridacat5:

So I'm guessing the Huvrboard is fake. I just can't figure it out.
They fooled NBCnews this morning with the story.


Depends on your outlook. The board needs a metal floor to work and the battery only lasts 7 minutes. I see it as a model to show how cool it would be if we were really smart and could get magnets to work against concrete, dirt, water and rocks.
Quoting hurricanes2018:




red tree to
Where is that? Florida.
142. flsky
It's a fake video.

Quoting 136. Sfloridacat5:

I saw this on NBCnews this morning. I had never seen it before.

HuvR - Hoverboards - they're crazy and hard to believe.

Off topic but very science related.

Link Link
Back to the original forecast for PostTD9

<>img src="">
Quoting flsky:
It's a fake video.



Yeah, I edited my post.
NBCnews has dropped the story from their sites.
On NBCnews they even said you can purchase them for $10K.
I'm sure it had a lot of people across the nation fooled when they ran the story.

I wish they were real. That would be too cool.
Quoting FranklinGray:
I think Jeff is confused. The GFS model clearly shows TD 9 re-forming over the bahamas on Friday as it moves northeast. The low in the western Caribbean that may show up over the weekend or next week is a totally different low.
Which run of the GFS? It showed it going mostly to central Florida. I don't remember anything about it being a remnant reforming over the Bahamas. The non-tropical low currently feeding moisture into south Florida is the one that will be over the Bahamas.
Quoting sar2401:
Which run f the GFS? It showed it going mostly to central Florida. I don't remember anything about it being a remnant reforming over the Bahamas. The non-tropical low currently feeding moisture into south Florida is the one that will be over the Bahamas.

That's a confused chap that is
12Z ECMWF doesn't show anything except the low forming in the EPAC. I think that low is going to steal all the energy from the Caribbean.
I'm going 50/50, toss a coin. Waiting to see what emerges over water in roughly 24 hours. Still some significance to being mentioned at all.

As Gro mentioned earlier, there is much going on in the GOM and NW Caribbean. IMO, still a chance for a quick October spin up.

Quoting 118. ConchConvert:

It's back in play....

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
Peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I edited my post.
NBCnews has dropped the story from their sites.
On NBCnews they even said you can purchase them for $10K.
I'm sure it had a lot of people across the nation fooled when they ran the story.

I wish they were real. That would be too cool.
Maybe if someone at NBC had just looked at the site, which hasn't been updated since March, and saw there was zero information about the company, they might have gotten a clue. Journalism is sinking to new lows.
Looks more like the dreaded Code Pineapple.

Quoting 122. Sfloridacat5:

Code Yellow

Quoting 145. sar2401:

Which run of the GFS? It showed it going mostly to central Florida. I don't remember anything about it being a remnant reforming over the Bahamas. The non-tropical low currently feeding moisture into south Florida is the one that will be over the Bahamas.


The 2pm run today.
Quoting 127. MiamiHeat305:

it's important to note it only has a 1/10 chance of developing into a tropical system but even if it were to which seems highly unlikely at this time it would probably be weak and last very short time. much less affect florida as a hurricane like some of the models has been predicting..
NHC had 92 at 50/50 ant two hour later it was a depression. just saying. And they are the experts...
Bouy near "The Blob"
Conditions at 42056 as of
(12:50 pm CDT)
1750 GMT on 10/23/2014:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 117 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
I'm a sailor anchored in the Bahamas so I'm paying close attention to this.  My favorite site for wind is WWW.MagicSeaWeed.com.  They use the latest GFS model to make their charts and the charts definitely show the low moving over Cuba and building when over the Bahamas.  That is the low from TD 9....no doubt about it.
http://magicseaweed.com/North -Atlantic-Hurricane-Surf-Chart/78/?chartType=WMAG
Ex TD9 now half way across the Yucatan and resurrected by the NHC as 94L. LOL. Pretty much what I expected.



Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, but just a little while ago it was a dead system with 0% chance of development.

At this time I haven't see any model support to show a system forming in the western Caribbean and moving north and affecting Florida. So the odds are very low.

GEM doesn't count. It forms a system that comes from the east towards Florida.
No, it was deemed a remnant low, and the NHC always thought it would reemerge into the Caribbean. It was never a "dead" storm, since it was still a low with a COC. The only question, and the one that still remains, is can it reorganize into anything strong enough to become a tropical storm in its own or does it remain a weak low that gets absorbed by the very strong cold front that's going to penetrate all the way down into the northern Caribbean this weekend. I would hope after the fiasco of the original GFS hurricane tracks that we'd wait a bit before hopping back on that train again.
Use it for surfing forecasts. Good site.

www.swellinfo.com is good too for nearshore winds and waves (less than 20 nm).

Stay safe.

Quoting 155. FranklinGray:

I'm a sailor anchored in the Bahamas so I'm paying close attention to this.  My favorite site for wind is WWW.MagicSeaWeed.com.  They use the latest GFS model to make their charts and the charts definitely show the low moving over Cuba and building when over the Bahamas.  That is the low from TD 9....no doubt about it.
http://magicseaweed.com/North -Atlantic-Hurricane-Surf-Chart/78/?chartType=WMAG
Designation AL94


Quoting 156. kmanislander:

Ex TD9 now half way across the Yucatan and resurrected by the NHC as 94L. LOL. Pretty much what I expected.




Looks like its fighting to get a name. We will see if it can strength in the NW Caribbean sea.
Sorry guys. I hurt my arm patting myself on the back. :) :)


Quoting FranklinGray:
I'm a sailor anchored in the Bahamas so I'm paying close attention to this.  My favorite site for wind is WWW.MagicSeaWeed.com.  They use the latest GFS model to make their charts and the charts definitely show the low moving over Cuba and building when over the Bahamas.  That is the low from TD 9....no doubt about it.
http://magicseaweed.com/North -Atlantic-Hurricane-Surf-Chart/78/?chartType=WMAG


Post TD9 is moving very slowly and won't make it into the western Caribbean until late Tomorrow or Saturday.
Magicseaweed.com has the low just south of Florida in 36 hours on Friday.

In 36 hours on Friday, Post TD9 will be just nearing the coast down by Belize.
Quoting sar2401:
No, it was deemed a remnant low, and the NHC always thought it would reemerge into the Caribbean. It was never a "dead" storm, since it was still a low with a COC. The only question, and the one that still remains, is can it reorganize into anything strong enough to become a tropical storm in its own or does it remain a weak low that gets absorbed by the very strong cold front that's going to penetrate all the way down into the northern Caribbean this weekend. I would hope after the fiasco of the original GFS hurricane tracks that we'd wait a bit before hopping back on that train again.


I didn't mean "dead" literally as in totally gone.
But as far as the NHC was concerned it had 0% chance of forming back into a tropical cyclone (based on their 5 day cone).
Quoting FranklinGray:
I'm a sailor anchored in the Bahamas so I'm paying close attention to this.  My favorite site for wind is WWW.MagicSeaWeed.com.  They use the latest GFS model to make their charts and the charts definitely show the low moving over Cuba and building when over the Bahamas.  That is the low from TD 9....no doubt about it.
http://magicseaweed.com/North -Atlantic-Hurricane-Surf-Chart/78/?chartType=WMAG
What I see between now and Sunday is a low that keeps appearing, disappearing, and jumping around the map. Given that the low isn't even back out over water and the recent performance of the GFS, a few runs after it gets situated is likely to give you better information.
Quoting 160. allancalderini:

Looks like its fighting to get a name. We will see if it can strength in the NW Caribbean sea.


That will depend mostly on the upper air dynamics as the SST is plenty warm. If it does spin up it could become very interesting with the TCHP still off the scale. Another alternative would be for it to become absorbed by the front and a new low spins up on the tail end of that. This time of year the NW and SW Caribbean becomes somewhat unpredictable.
Navgem

GFS

EURO

NAM
I'd say the LLC is near 18.1N 89.8W it appears to be moving E
HMmmmmmmmmmmmmm?????
Quoting 161. Grothar:

Sorry guys. I hurt my arm patting myself on the back. :) :)





The models on the fritz still I see.
" I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage"


I think I'd just buy new stuff when I got to Anchorage.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I didn't mean "dead" literally as in totally gone.
But as far as the NHC was concerned it had 0% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone.
A post-tropical remnant low does not have a zero percent chance of reforming into a tropical cyclone. In this case, it had a zero percent chance of becoming one once it went inland. Since the low is still there, it's now an invest as it heads toward the Caribbean. It still has to hold together a circulation until it gets to the coast and at least get back to TD strength again if it has a chance, hence the 10% probability.
Is post TD9 going to get caught by the front and scooped up or move slowly into the western Caribbean near Belize?

I was assuming post TD9 was going to come out into the western Caribbean near Belize late Friday.
a href="" target="_blank">

The Circulation does not look as good as it did a few hours ago. Also notice the low level winds to the NE of 94L (South of Cozumel) are actually out of the west moving away from the circulation center. This is also happening east of the system off the coast of Belize. Then it also has to deal with the upper level outflow from the blob off of western Cuba. 94L has a lot of work to do in the next day or two if it is going to hold together in my opinion.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Quoting sar2401:
A post-tropical remnant low does not have a zero percent chance of reforming into a tropical cyclone. In this case, it had a zero percent chance of becoming one once it went inland. Since the low is still there, it's now an invest as it heads toward the Caribbean. It still has to hold together a circulation until it gets to the coast and at least get back to TD strength again if it has a chance, hence the 10% probability.


Things are always changing.
Just yesterday (06z)the GFS had a hurricane going into Florida.
Even Dr. Masters posted that it could be a dangerous situation.



Big red blooming pretty quickly.
why are calling it invest 94L!
Quoting kmanislander:


That will depend mostly on the upper air dynamics as the SST is plenty warm. If it does spin up it could become very interesting with the TCHP still off the scale. Another alternative would be for it to become absorbed by the front and a new low spins up on the tail end of that. This time of year the NW and SW Caribbean becomes somewhat unpredictable.


I don't think it will become absorbed
Heat potentials are as you say off the scale
Upper conditions at this time has two key factors 1 the shear 2 dry air
I don't think shear will be too much of a factor at all
There might be some dry air but I don't think it will be too much to stop redevelopment
Quoting TheEyeiscalm:



Big red blooming pretty quickly.


Another big blob. TWC was saying these big blobs of convection are due to the jet stream diving down (frontal precipitaton).

They are unrelated to post TD9.
Quoting 165. kmanislander:



That will depend mostly on the upper air dynamics as the SST is plenty warm. If it does spin up it could become very interesting with the TCHP still off the scale. Another alternative would be for it to become absorbed by the front and a new low spins up on the tail end of that. This time of year the NW and SW Caribbean becomes somewhat unpredictable.


I was thinking this earlier Kman. 94L might add a bit of energy to the front enabling it to spin up a new low. Looks like a few models on board (post 166) with something hanging in the NW carib 4-5 days out.
Quoting 167. wunderkidcayman:

I'd say the LLC is near 18.1N 89.8W it appears to be moving E
ESE
185. flsky
No kidding. When I moved from CA to FL I sold everything that I couldn't fit in my car. Saved a ton of money and aggravation.
Quoting 173. BobinTampa:

" I am driving a uhaul from Miami to Anchorage"


I think I'd just buy new stuff when I got to Anchorage.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody!!!, just wondering is that huge blob East of the Yucatan Peninsula will move over South Florida?, it looks very strong!!!!, and I can see hints of a twist in the clouds,don't know how far South the front will come? maybe all depends on how south this front become stationary that we get all that bad weather here in south Miami,FLorida.
We have near 100% chance of rain today in our area but just clouds not rain so far,but that blob looks impressive!! any thoughts if we here in Miami will be affect it by this system?, thank you!!!.
It's mostly a huge stream of high and mid level clouds being dragged out of the tropics by the low level tropical jet. The actual trough of low pressure that's currently between Cuba and the Keys doesn't have a lot of dynamics to work with, and the front is going to pus the rain bands even further south. The Keys are the only places it's raining now and even that's going to pushed south for the weekend. The chances are that Miami will get some showers and thunderstorms today, with the chance of some isolated brief heavy rain. By Saturday, it will all be gone, and Miami should be in for a very nice weekend.
Quoting 181. wunderkidcayman:



I don't think it will become absorbed
Heat potentials are as you say off the scale
Upper conditions at this time has two key factors 1 the shear 2 dry air
I don't think shear will be too much of a factor at all
There might be some dry air but I don't think it will be too much to stop redevelopment
GFS show's the dry air killing it.
Quoting 182. Sfloridacat5:



Another big blob. TWC was saying these big blobs of convection are due to the jet stream diving down (frontal precipitaton).

They are unrelated to post TD9.

Of course. Nor did I say it was. Surely is blooming though. Windy in S Florida today.
Quoting 162. Sfloridacat5:



Post TD9 is moving very slowly and won't make it into the western Caribbean until late Tomorrow or Saturday.
Magicseaweed.com has the low just south of Florida in 36 hours on Friday.

In 36 hours on Friday, Post TD9 will be just nearing the coast down by Belize.


Actually, if you look close enough, it has that low pressure splitting in two with half going over Cuba and half not really doing anything until Sunday. The half that goes over Cuba will start to build over Bahamas giving me 30 knots of wind to deal with but as it moves farther northeast it dissipates so I guess that is why everybody is ignoring it...except me who has to deal with it tomorrow.
Quoting 166. SFLWeatherman:

Navgem

GFS

EURO

NAM



Looks like all of the models are showing two Lows.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I don't think it will become absorbed
Heat potentials are as you say off the scale
Upper conditions at this time has two key factors 1 the shear 2 dry air
I don't think shear will be too much of a factor at all
There might be some dry air but I don't think it will be too much to stop redevelopment
There's also a chance that the front will provide enough push to turn the low more SSE and keep it over land for a longer period. If that happens, the chances increase that the low can turn SW and end up in the Pacific and never get back into the Caribbean. I don't think there's much written in stone yet for 94L.


ONLY 50 MPH
New charts show upper level anticyclone now centered over 94L/PostTD9 and low 5-10kts shear over the NW Caribbean
I don't see Post TD9 splitting.

What I've been seeing are small lows spinning up and moving along the front to the east. This has been going on for the past two days. That's what contributed to the rain in the Keys the past three days.

Check out the NAM at 30 hours. It shows these weaknesses or lows sliding along the front.

But TD9 has always been down in the southern BOC and then moved into the Yucatan late yesterday.


Quoting FranklinGray:


Actually, if you look close enough, it has that low pressure splitting in two with half going over Cuba and half not really doing anything until Sunday. The half that goes over Cuba will start to build over Bahamas giving me 30 knots of wind to deal with but as it moves farther northeast it dissipates so I guess that is why everybody is ignoring it...except me who has to deal with it tomorrow.
The NWS Marine Forecast for the Bahamas has a pretty good synopsis of the weather for the next several days. The low may form on the stalled cold front over far south Florida tomorrow and then track toward you over the weekend. I don't think this is 94L but a baroclinic low that has been previously forecast. Looks like 15-20 knot winds with 3-5 foot seas. Where are you at? Are you anchored in or out? I spent about 20 years sailing the Caribbean, so I understand being anchored out can get a little uncomfortable, depending on how well you're protected from swells. What are the locals saying? I usually put more stock in that than I did models or forecasts.
18z NAM at 9 hours (1005mb low over Belize -or near Belize)
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:



Things are always changing.
Just yesterday (06z)the GFS had a hurricane going into Florida.
Even Dr. Masters posted that it could be a dangerous situation.

Dr Masters correctly, IMHO, used words like "may", potentially" and "possibility" and, advised us to keep closely monitoring the situation. I, for one, am doing just that - keeping a very close eye on everything going on in the area - given Caribbean SSTs and the time of year, there are a number of possible outcomes. I hope, whatever the outcome, it is benign.
Right at the moment, I welcome the cooler breeze and the odd shower of rain!
Ok I'm officially ready for someone to explain to me what that big red blob near the Yucatan channel is and why are we not concerned about it having tropical characteristics and developing... I was hoping I could just lurk and the question would be answered :/
Paranoid it was answered scroll up a little and you have your answer post 186 answered the question
18z NAM at 15 hours - 1004mb low near Belize, also 1005mb low south of Florida - should keep the Bahamas wet
Quoting 199. weaverwxman:
Paranoid it was answered scroll up a little and you have your answer


Ok, I guess comment 186 explains it... So what will happen to that energy as its pushed south? Will it interact with 94L?
18z NAM at 21 hours

Low has weakened near Belize

They said that the sun was going to come out today Lol no sun at all!!



18z NAM at 27 hours
Looks like the low has finally made it to the Caribbean. So that's Friday evening.
Quoting 198. ParanoidAndroid:

Ok I'm officially ready for someone to explain to me what that big red blob near the Yucatan channel is and why are we not concerned about it having tropical characteristics and developing... I was hoping I could just lurk and the question would be answered :/


You will need to hear it from the blog's official blobologist Grothar.
18Z NAM off S FL

From US National Weather Service Miami Florida

18z NAM at 39 hours
Low has weakened while now over open water in the sweet spot of the western Caribbean?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From US National Weather Service Miami Florida



We need that rain over here in S.W. Florida. We've only had 1.x" of rain this month in Fort Myers.
18z NAM at 45 hours

1008mb low in the western Caribbean. 1003mb leaving the Bahamas.
18Z NAM at 51 hours
Low down to 1003 mb
Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:

18Z NAM at 51 hours
Low down to 1003 mb



Need to see if this gets support from the GFS or the Euro.
18z NAM at 60hours the low is back up to 1005mb near the coast of Central America.

Doesn't look like the low is going to do much of anything.
Convection starting to flare up now as the circulation of 94L starts to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras and aided by the anticyclone overhead which is allowing inflow to rise and cool. Current surface pressure in Grand Cayman is 1008.3 mb, fairly low for not having an organized system around.

Quoting ParanoidAndroid:


Ok, I guess comment 186 explains it... So what will happen to that energy as its pushed south? Will it interact with 94L?
Oh, it will interact with 94L, assuming it's there. If it is, the energy may simply be absorbed by the front and increase the amount of rain possible from Central America to the Bahamas. If 94L can develop into something more than a weak TD, it may uses the cold front to catch a ride NE, but the cold front and the dry air may also just kill it. A lot depends on things like the tropical jet, how far south the cold front gets, how much dry air gets injected into the low, if another low can form on the front much later next week...many, many questions with almost no answers right now. Because of this, the chances any models are right more than about 48 hours out are much lower than normal. This is one of those times we just have to wait and see what happens.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Need to see if this gets support from the GFS or the Euro.


Going back and looking at the 12z NAM there's really not much change with the 18z NAM.
Each run puts a low in the same area.

I'm not expecting much from the 18z GFS. It will most likely be similar to the 12z.

But who knows. The GFS does some really weird things.
Quoting 214. kmanislander:
Convection starting to flare up now as the circulation of 94L starts to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras and aided by the anticyclone overhead which is allowing inflow to rise and cool. Current surface pressure in Grand Cayman is 1008.3 mb, fairly low for not having an organized system around.

94L looks like its going to be over water faster than it was forecasted.
Afternoon everybody.
Quoting 203. SFLWeatherman:

They said that the sun was going to come out today Lol no sun at all!!
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMUccyLB 20.jpg">
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif">
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20R io/lbjMAXw01a.gif">
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS/focus _regions/NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/ vis_ir_background/goes/20141023.1945.goes_13.visir .bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_GulfOfMexico-x-x.DA Y.jpg">
Yeah, it's been a gray day.... at least the rain is giving us a break for now. Looks like tomorrow is more likely to be the rainy day here. I was hoping for some sun by then :o/.....
Oh well, at least it's been a bit cooler.
Quoting 208. Sfloridacat5:

18z NAM at 39 hours
Low has weakened while now over open water in the sweet spot of the western Caribbean?

They're citing wind shear and dry conditions left behind by the front....
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:

18z NAM at 45 hours

1008mb low in the western Caribbean. 1003mb leaving the Bahamas.

That first low is sitting just to the NE of the Yucatan right now....

It's quite visible in the sat loops....
Quoting kmanislander:
Convection starting to flare up now as the circulation of 94L starts to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Current surface pressure in Grand Cayman is 1008.3 mb, fairly low for not having an organized system around.


I think the fact that we have broad lower pressures in the area this will aid in postTD9/94L's redevelopment
Quoting 220. wunderkidcayman:


I think the fact that we have broad lower pressures in the area this will aid in postTD9/94L's redevelopment
Slow.... I doubt anything happens before that first low gets out of there. If this doesn't get picked up by the front[s] and just hangs around for a day or two, I can see some potential forecast changes....
We can see in the ASCAT the center hooked in south of Cuba. This is certainly more disruptive, 12Z GEOS-5 adjusts with a little more struggling, maybe a STD (sub-tropical depression) by the time it brushes South Florida tomorrow evening.



Still has that trough split happening & for 1 1/2 days has put the second low back into Central America. Posting the low as close as it gets to the Caymans..this is Saturday...and it really just keeps raining on this area thru Monday or longer.
Really, I just want one more storm so my forecast validates .... lol ... a low-level TS crossing from BoH to the WATL would work fine. ... no further excitement needed....
Quoting scott39:
94L looks like its going to be over water faster than it was forecasted.

Also with the stregnthing upper level anticyclone on top of 94L and the now 5-10kts shear

System over water faster than expected with low shear with more time to work with before dry air come in to play
SUNSET SOLAR ECLIPSE--TODAY! On Thursday, Oct. 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. The event will be particularly beautiful in the Central and Eastern time zones where maximum eclipse occurs at sunset. Science@NASA has the full story.
Quoting 215. sar2401:
Oh, it will interact with 94L, assuming it's there. If it is, the energy may simply be absorbed by the front and increase the amount of rain possible from Central America to the Bahamas. If 94L can develop into something more than a weak TD, it may uses the cold front to catch a ride NE, but the cold front and the dry air may also just kill it. A lot depends on things like the tropical jet, how far south the cold front gets, how much dry air gets injected into the low, if another low can form on the front much later next week...many, many questions with almost no answers right now. Because of this, the chances any models are right more than about 48 hours out are much lower than normal. This is one of those times we just have to wait and see what happens.


Thank you!
Quoting 225. WaterWitch11:

SUNSET SOLAR ECLIPSE--TODAY! On Thursday, Oct. 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. The event will be particularly beautiful in the Central and Eastern time zones where maximum eclipse occurs at sunset. Science@NASA has the full story.
Story of my life. Hugely overcast day at my location means no sunset view for me :o/
Quoting Skyepony:
We can see in the ASCAT the center hooked in south of Cuba. This is certainly more disruptive, 12Z GEOS-5 adjusts with a little more struggling, maybe a STD (sub-tropical depression) by the time it brushes South Florida tomorrow evening.



Still has that trough split happening & for 1 1/2 days has put the second low back into Central America. Posting the low as close as it gets to the Caymans..this is Saturday...and it really just keeps raining on this area thru Monday or longer.


Hmm I don't see the non tropical low transitioning to sub tropical but either way rain for Florida

Quoting 205. rmbjoe1954:



You will need to hear it from the blog's official blobologist Grothar.


It is a non-tropical low that should be moving east and as of now, not amounting to much. It just looks like a blob.

Quoting hurricanes2018:

Meh
First model runs 😛:P I'd wait for later runs more so once it gets into the NW Carb Sea
Quoting 220. wunderkidcayman:


I think the fact that we have broad lower pressures in the area this will aid in postTD9/94L's redevelopment


That would help, I agree.
There will be no storm
Like all this season's Gulf lows
Nice try GFS
Quoting 214. kmanislander:

Convection starting to flare up now as the circulation of 94L starts to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras and aided by the anticyclone overhead which is allowing inflow to rise and cool. Current surface pressure in Grand Cayman is 1008.3 mb, fairly low for not having an organized system around.


Yep..I believe this will surprise a few forecasters, even with the dry air.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon everybody.
Yeah, it's been a gray day.... at least the rain is giving us a break for now. Looks like tomorrow is more likely to be the rainy day here. I was hoping for some sun by then :o/.....
Oh well, at least it's been a bit cooler.
They're citing wind shear and dry conditions left behind by the front....
That first low is sitting just to the NE of the Yucatan right now....

It's quite visible in the sat loops....
With the low shear explained here in this picture.
Quoting 234. win1gamegiantsplease:

There will be no storm
Like all this season's Gulf lows
Nice try GFS


Ok, cool! So what are you doing here?
240. N3EG
Fun weather today here in Longview, WA - had a funnel cloud about 1.5 hours ago that tore down power lines and tore off several roofs. No reported injuries.
Rain for extreme south Florida tomorrow.

The rest of the state is going to be dry for at least the next 7 days with high pressure and dry air establishing itself over the state.
So if something were to come back up towards Florida it wouldn't be until late next week.

Chances are looking extremely low for any tropical development moving north back towards the U.S.

Good reason to get outside and enjoy the weekend.
Quoting 241. Sfloridacat5:

Rain for extreme south Florida tomorrow.

The rest of the state is going to be dry for at least the next 7 days with high pressure and dry air establishing itself over the state.
So if something were to come back up towards Florida it wouldn't be until late next week.

Chances are looking extremely low for any tropical development moving north back towards the U.S.

Good reason to get outside and enjoy the weekend.



Drought stricken Northern Cali getting some decent rainfall:


Quoting 238. proroller:



Ok, cool! So what are you doing here?


Reading Doc's entry, people's posts and looking at their satellite/radar images. You?
Quoting 230. Grothar:



It is a non-tropical low that should be moving east and as of now, not amounting to much. It just looks like a blob.




Nothing murky about that , Grothar. Thank you.
The Blob came ashore just this last half hour, with some decent wind gusts +20 mph, as i was driving home, truck windsheild wipers didnt do a thing on high speed...windshield felt like I was in a fish bowl looking outside....P

Quoting 219. BahaHurican:

Afternoon everybody.
Yeah, it's been a gray day.... at least the rain is giving us a break for now. Looks like tomorrow is more likely to be the rainy day here. I was hoping for some sun by then :o/.....
Oh well, at least it's been a bit cooler.
They're citing wind shear and dry conditions left behind by the front....
That first low is sitting just to the NE of the Yucatan right now....

It's quite visible in the sat loops....


Quoting BahaHurican:
Slow.... I doubt anything happens before that first low gets out of there. If this doesn't get picked up by the front[s] and just hangs around for a day or two, I can see some potential forecast changes....


If 94L regenerates, will it be TD10 or back to 9?
Here's a table with the solar eclipse in local times.
guess the partial eclipse ain't happenin...
Quoting weatherbro:
guess the partial eclipse ain't happenin...


Supposed to start in a few minutes here in S.W. Florida.
For those unavailable to watch the solar eclipse, here's the link to NASA TV which is livestreaming the event:

Link

I'm such an idiot. I told my friend not to stare directly at the eclipse because it can cause permanent eye damage, and then I went outside to let my dog in and stared at the sun myself. Good job, Cody.


low hangout in the northeast
Quoting 217. hurricanes2018:




Wild turkey are really common in Florida.
Quoting 256. TropicalAnalystwx13:

For those unavailable to watch the solar eclipse, here's the link to NASA TV which is livestreaming the event:

Link

I'm such an idiot. I told my friend not to stare directly at the eclipse because it can cause permanent eye damage, and then I went outside to let my dog in and stared at the sun myself. Good job, Cody.


I clicked on the link and averted my eyes in case lol. Hey at least you put the myth to the test, and you can see what you're typing (unless you don't stare at your fingers like me).
Quoting Jedkins01:


Wild turkey are really common in Florida.


I see them all over the golf courses in Northern Pinellas county. The Eagles usually has the most. I might see 20-30 while Im out there.


lots of heavy rain east of invest 94L


i bet you someone getting heavy rain tonight
Quoting 258. Jedkins01:



Wild turkey are really common in Florida.


They got a whole month before they got to worry about anything.
09L/REMLOW/XX/XX
Quoting 263. weatherbro:



They got a whole month before they got to worry about anything.
Why Weatherbro??? oh nevermind, I got it
RE 258: They are having a good year here in WV too, there is lots of acorn mast. I put corn out off my back deck and hope to bring them closer, but so far I only get squirrels and jays. Even the deer ignore my corn :)
268. beell
Back before the telescope and special glass filters were invented, this is how we would view an eclipse.

Pinhole projection.
The simplest safe way to view a partial solar eclipse is to watch the Sun's image projected onto a piece of paper. Poke a small hole in an index card with a pencil point, face it toward the Sun, and hold a second card three or four feet behind it in its shadow. The hole will project a small image of the Sun's disk onto the lower card. This image will go through all the phases of the eclipse, just as the real Sun does. Experiment with different size holes. A large hole makes the image bright but fuzzy; a small hole makes it dim but sharp.


Link
Today's partial solar eclipse is practically a non-event in South Florida. But I'm already making plans for the 2017 and 2024 total eclipses (and may even be around when the 2045 event covers much if Florida).

August 21, 2017:


April 8, 2024:


August 12, 2045:

(Six minutes of totality in Port St. Lucie)
It appears the 94L is going to move into the Caribbean tomorrow morning and it still has a pretty vigorous circulation. This could ramp up pretty nice over the next few days something to watch for sure. infact the last run of the HWRF early this morning on EX TD 09 showed a hurricane at 5 days due east of Cozumel.

Here is the latest GFS. Strongest with this feature in over 36hrs now.


Quoting 262. hurricanes2018:



i bet you someone getting heavy rain tonight
Cuba gets it tonight; if there's anything left, we get it tomorrow....

Quoting 251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Hey, KOTG.... u caught me on the evening drive .... lol ... but those clouds haven't brought rain to NP since about 1 p. m. I expect things will pick up again rainwise in the morning, though looking at that trajectory the central and SE Bahamas may get more than I expected.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It appears the 94L is going to move into the Caribbean tomorrow morning and it still has a pretty vigorous circulation. This could ramp up pretty nice over the next few days something to watch for sure. infact the last run of the HWRF early this morning on EX TD 09 showed a hurricane at 5 days due east of Cozumel.



Agreed
Though seems like it might enter the water later tonight

I have 94L LLC near 18.1N 89.2W moving E
Quoting 272. StormTrackerScott:

It appears the 94L is going to move into the Caribbean tomorrow morning and it still has a pretty vigorous circulation. This could ramp up pretty nice over the next few days something to watch for sure. infact the last run of the HWRF early this morning on EX TD 09 showed a hurricane at 5 days due east of Cozumel.


I commented this morning I think this will come back even with the dry air ..If not, crow does not bother me.
Quoting 277. hydrus:
I commented this morning I think this will come back even with the dry air ..If not, crow does not bother me.


It will be interesting to see if we start seeing thunderstorms erupting just east of Belize tonight and if that happens it could tuck 94L right under those thunderstorms if they form as 94L does appear to be entering the westernside of Belize.
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Today's partial solar eclipse is practically a non-event in South Florida. But I'm already making plans for the 2017 and 2024 total eclipses (and may even be around when the 2045 event covers much if Florida).

August 21, 2017:


April 8, 2024:


August 12, 2045:

(Six minutes of totality in Port St. Lucie)
We made plans for 2017 too, even tho the total eclipse will happen here in Rock Island, TN , we are going to Sparta..I hope everything works out. The 2024 eclipse is not far from here, and we will go if possible...Hope the weather is good . The 1032 day NAM says its cool...:)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are expected to move
eastward across northern Belize tonight and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by Friday afternoon. This system has a small chance
of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in
two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 279. hydrus:
We made plans for 2017 too, even tho the total eclipse will happen here in Rock Island, TN , we are going to Sparta..I hope everything works out. The 2024 eclipse is not far from here, and we will go if possible...Hope the weather is good . The 1032 day NAM says its cool...:)


I think Nea is good for 2017 & 2024 but 2045 maybe pushing it.
282. BtnTx

Quoting 268. beell:

Back before the telescope and special glass filters were invented, this is how we would view an eclipse.

Pinhole projection.
The simplest safe way to view a partial solar eclipse is to watch the Sun's image projected onto a piece of paper. Poke a small hole in an index card with a pencil point, face it toward the Sun, and hold a second card three or four feet behind it in its shadow. The hole will project a small image of the Sun's disk onto the lower card. This image will go through all the phases of the eclipse, just as the real Sun does. Experiment with different size holes. A large hole makes the image bright but fuzzy; a small hole makes it dim but sharp.


Link

My sisters and I did the small hole application back in the 60's. It worked very well!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Today's partial solar eclipse is practically a non-event in South Florida. But I'm already making plans for the 2017 and 2024 total eclipses (and may even be around when the 2045 event covers much if Florida).

August 21, 2017:


April 8, 2024:


August 12, 2045:

(Six minutes of totality in Port St. Lucie)


I'm already making plans for the 2017 event, will probably go to Charleston, SC for that one.
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:

Here is the latest GFS. Strongest with this feature in over 36hrs now.




Can you give a possible explanation of if what the models are doing, cause I do not read them well and don't trust them. Also, one minute I am like there might be a hurricane and the next "there will be nothing" ....it's annoying lol
Quoting 281. StormTrackerScott:



I think Nea is good for 2017 & 2024 but 2045 maybe pushing it.
Me too, but I eat right...God willing, I,ll make 79 with ease.
Quoting 269. GeoffreyWPB:


This thing is STILL ALIVE! My god, it just refuses to die. Run for the hills. I will never say anything bad about the GFS model runs again.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are expected to move
eastward across northern Belize tonight and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by Friday afternoon. This system has a small chance
of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in
two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Ok let's check this NHC location is exactly where I placed the LLC just a few mins ago

track Eastward tonight I would expect it inter the Carib sea either late tonight or tomorrow morning

Not expecting this to become absorbed into the cold front

Should expect NHC to start looking at this as a redevelopment scenario by tomorrow evening or night

Quoting 284. nygiants:

Can you give a possible explanation of if what the models are doing, cause I do not read them well and don't trust them. Also, one minute I am like there might be a hurricane and the next "there will be nothing" ....it's annoying lol


Out of no where the all the models dropped TD 09 yesterday. I must admit I have never seen that happen before with all the models maybe one or 2 yes but not all.
Question WKC, why won't this get absorbed into the cold front?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Ok let's check this NHC location is exactly where I placed the LLC just a few mins ago

track Eastward tonight I would expect it inter the Carib sea either late tonight or tomorrow morning

Not expecting this to become absorbed into the cold front

Should expect NHC to start looking at this as a redevelopment scenario by tomorrow evening or night

Not bad




Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Out of no where the all the models dropped TD 09 yesterday. I must admit I have never seen that happen before with all the models maybe one or 2 yes but not all.


I know that lol (that could be a sign that something may happen because it happened on the same day as the power outage...I mean future reference...what models are showing anything forming and do u think something could form...Florida Landfall?
Quoting 290. SFLWeatherman:

Not bad







It looks like it has a lot of energy with it. If this were October, I would be worried.
18 GFS puts 94 right back in the BOC. Are we to trust this run?
Quoting 292. Grothar:



It looks like it has a lot of energy with it. If this were October, I would be worried.
Looks a bit like September. According to this, conditions should be favorable.

FIM 7 Has 94L in the GOM

Quoting 293. hurricanewatcher61:

18 GFS puts 94 right back in the BOC. Are we to trust this run?


No.

Thanks, didn't think so.
Quoting Grothar:


No.

Quoting 299. Grothar:




Annular
Quoting 295. SFLWeatherman:

FIM 7 Has 94L in the GOM



Throw all the models out*
The GFS especially has been an embarrasment to US forecasting models all year.
Even the simulated Fim7, the fimmiest of FIM's, is having a tough time even getting this thing to blow out a candle.
See you next year.
.
.
.
*except for ones showing a cat1 on Cayman
Just talked with my nephew on San Pedro , Ambergris Caye , Belize , he says they are having some real nasty weather there!
Remember when the HWRF had Cristobal coming ashore Miami as a Cat 4?
Or was that the GFDL?

Either way.
Quoting 269. GeoffreyWPB:


looks better than ever.
301. CosmicEvents
12:16 AM GMT on October 24, 2014

Hey Cosmic trust all is well with you , as usual you always make laugh! :)
Are we really going to go through all of this /again/ after the fiasco of wishcasting a Cat 2 into Tampa the other night? There is 60 Knots of wind from the west in the GOM and it looks to be increasing over the next few days. That's not a positive look for any storm coming into it.
Quoting 305. stormpetrol:

301. CosmicEvents
12:16 AM GMT on October 24, 2014

Hey Cosmic trust all is well with you , as usual you always make laugh! :)

Same to you my friend, year after year.
A toast across the waters to you and yours.
Quoting 307. CosmicEvents:


Same to you my friend, year after year.
A toast across the waters to you and yours.


Thanks my friend, same here, many happy returns!:))
Quoting 292. Grothar:



It looks like it has a lot of energy with it. If this were October, I would be worried.



LOL we are in october
Windy day tomorrow for S FL
20 to 25mph Gust up to 30 to 35mph
Quoting 300. JrWeathermanFL:



Annular

I think I can see an eye forming XD
">
TD-9 Its Alive! Its Alive!
Hmm the cold front that in the GOM on 18Z charts
The one that's expected to become stationary in the extreme NW Carib/SE GOM

Now on the 21z charts front has now become startionary in the GOM from S FL/keys to N of N Yucatan basically lined up along 25-23N and the tail end that on 18Z charts dipped down into the NE BOC now retrograded back Nward

Also GOM low seems to be close to merging

With this new thing it may gives the chances of post TD9/94L to be merging with the front less likely
My prediction still stands true that it will get north of Cuba, and we will better know the track by Thursday at the latest. The small birds were flying towards Miami this morning. Maybe they were confused by an unknown deep lava shift, or maybe they were just catching the morning heat lift to ease their tiny wings on their flight to seed town. Another possibility is they sense a shift in atmospheric pressures because they fly up and down really fast and communicate amongst themselves often in the first light.
Quoting HurriHistory:
">
TD-9 Its Alive! Its Alive!


Ok
Btw still don't see the video
Quoting 279. hydrus:

We made plans for 2017 too, even tho the total eclipse will happen here in Rock Island, TN , we are going to Sparta..I hope everything works out. The 2024 eclipse is not far from here, and we will go if possible...Hope the weather is good . The 1032 day NAM says its cool...:)

LOL good old Sparta my hometown of all places. Maybe I'll see you then, who knows :)
94L/exTD9 wants to make a name for itself!
Could NHC make a Updated Advisory before 2AM EDT (Usual Update)...We Will See?. What do you guys think?
Quoting 317. stormpetrol:

94L/exTD9 wants to make a name for itself!
How about "The Comeback Kid"
Quoting HurriHistory:
This thing is STILL ALIVE! My god, it just refuses to die. Run for the hills. I will never say anything bad about the GFS model runs again.




Tropical Storm Ana is now forecast to merge into the westerlies and head toward the West Coast. This chart shows the situation on Saturday when a strong low will approach the Oregon-California border bringing wind and rain. Ana will be absorbed into the next low upstream, a warm occlusion system, and head toward the British Columbia coast with an expanding wind field and of course, plenty of moisture. Hoping some of that reaches California.
322. MahFL
Quoting 317. stormpetrol:

94L/exTD9 wants to make a name for itself!


It has a yellow X again.
Quoting stormpetrol:
94L/exTD9 wants to make a name for itself!

Umm Hanna? Lol

Quoting nygiants:
Could NHC make a Updated Advisory before 2AM EDT (Usual Update)...We Will See?. What do you guys think?


What you mean like the Tropical Weather Outlook that comes out at 2am

It could drop south and become an EPAC storm.

Quoting Grothar:
It could drop south and become an EPAC storm.



Maybe doubt it though

Meh first model runs the crap runs
Quoting FBMinFL:
All-

DestinJeff here. How have you been?

I've been away, officially, for some time now, and I trust I will be again in short order.

I wanted to say so long to everyone, who for the past several years (including those I have spent in Witness Protection) have filled many of my days with knowledge about the tropics I would have otherwise never gained.

This was my last season on the Emerald Coast, as I am soon moving out of state sonewhere a lot more like Colorado (mostly because it is). I don't imagine I will be on much. I'm sure this handle will be added to the heap and I won't be able to use it any longer.

A bunch of us pissed a lot of people off. The year was 2010... I remember it like it was four years ago. Drums were involved. I don't know... We all said things we regret, except all that funny stuff I said. I don't regret that.

There are no hard feelings. We are all characters here, and we all play a role in making the community whole (even those of us that reside now at that place WU won't let me say, but it starts with a "w" and ends with a "eatherbunker". We are all there, living a nice existence.

Anyway... This isn't about that. It is about the season being over, and me taking the chance to say thank you. It has been real fun.

Also, how in the hell did "notcircumventing" last as long as he did? I mean, the name? And his avatar was that of freaking Grandpa Simpson winking. He was a good man, as was that USAFWXGUY. And RMadillo. And many others.

Keep, thanks for not outing me.


Aww man, take care Destin.
328. txjac
Quoting 323. FBMinFL:

All-

DestinJeff here. How have you been?

I've been away, officially, for some time now, and I trust I will be again in short order.

I wanted to say so long to everyone, who for the past several years (including those I have spent in Witness Protection) have filled many of my days with knowledge about the tropics I would have otherwise never gained.

This was my last season on the Emerald Coast, as I am soon moving out of state sonewhere a lot more like Colorado (mostly because it is). I don't imagine I will be on much. I'm sure this handle will be added to the heap and I won't be able to use it any longer.

A bunch of us pissed a lot of people off. The year was 2010... I remember it like it was four years ago. Drums were involved. I don't know... We all said things we regret, except all that funny stuff I said. I don't regret that.

There are no hard feelings. We are all characters here, and we all play a role in making the community whole (even those of us that reside now at that place WU won't let me say, but it starts with a "w" and ends with a "eatherbunker". We are all there, living a nice existence.

Anyway... This isn't about that. It is about the season being over, and me taking the chance to say thank you. It has been real fun.

Also, how in the hell did "notcircumventing" last as long as he did? I mean, the name? And his avatar was that of freaking Grandpa Simpson winking. He was a good man, as was that USAFWXGUY. And RMadillo. And many others.

Keep, thanks for not outing me.


Wow, good to see you ...I was pretty new back when I saw you on.
I did however enjoy your posts. On more than one occasions you made me laugh.
Thanks
Quoting 324. wunderkidcayman:


Umm Hanna? Lol



What you mean like the Tropical Weather Outlook that comes out at 2am



Yeah
You guys can say what you what about the 2014 hurricane season, but I had a good time. We had the first CAT 4 since 2010, and a CAT 2 landfall in the US. We also had 2 of the worst looking hurricanes ever ( I'm looking at you two, Bertha, and Christobal). We even had a major landfall that we could watch live as it happened. For my first season watching the tropics closely, it was thankfully interesting. And who knows, it might not be over yet
New charts are in
And wow

Upper level anticyclone set up itself in the NW Caribbean now the whole W Caribbean has only got 5-10kts shear

Also vort for postTD9/94L has increased quite a bit from last one
Also confirms location to be near Belize

Convection still increasing

If trends continue Id expect postTD9/94L to make a decent comeback once it's in the waters of the NW a Carib

Quoting 330. nwobilderburg:

You guys can say what you what about the 2014 hurricane season, but I had a good time. We had the first CAT 4 since 2010, and a CAT 2 landfall in the US. We also had 2 of the worst looking hurricanes ever ( I'm looking at you two, Bertha, and Christobal). We even had a major landfall that we could watch live as it happened. For my first season watching the tropics closely, it was thankfully interesting. And who knows, it might not be over yet


Plus the damage wasn't bad at all. Don't forget that just 2 years ago Sandy caused 60-70 billion in damage. That's 60,000 million.
Quoting 325. Grothar:

It could drop south and become an EPAC storm.




I don't think it seems to be heading that way
Quoting nygiants:

Yeah


Well yeah it's a possibility but I doubt it
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone formation
during the next couple of days. However, these conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development of this system
after that time while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


I don't think it seems to be heading that way


It's not
Quoting pablosyn:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone formation
during the next couple of days. However, these conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development of this system
after that time while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

No surprise there
338. MahFL
Wow look at all that blue east of the Yucatan.



Time for model fantasy!

Quoting MahFL:
Wow look at all that blue east of the Yucatan.





And look at the buzzsaw north of it.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Time for model fantasy!



Worst Forecast Model ever. /comicbookguy
343. beell
323. FBMinFL
1:04 AM GMT on October 24, 2014
All-

DestinJeff here. How have you been?

I've been away, officially, for some time now, and I trust I will be again in short order...


DJ,
Took me a while to realize it but this place really did need a blog that could poke fun at everyone/anything WU. I wish that blog was still here.

Winter Snow Storms could open up a whole new world for an FBMinCo.

See ya 'round like a donut!
Quoting MahFL:
Wow look at all that blue east of the Yucatan.





Black blue too

That 0-5kts
Quoting 344. GeoffreyWPB:




I'll have some mustard on that pretzel ... lol.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Ok starting to make some sense but not yet

New intensity forecast shows TS as early as 24-36hrs
Quoting 340. Ryuujin:



And look at the buzzsaw north of it.


it doesnt matter unless the buzzsaw is where its headed and that is not the case

chances of redevelopment to me are higher than some may think
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it doesnt matter unless the buzzsaw is where its headed and that is not the case

chances of redevelopment to me are higher than some may think


That was mostly for people thinking it would survive a trip north.
Quoting 350. Ryuujin:



That was mostly for people thinking it would survive a trip north.


thats if it was moving north right away, which it is not

who is to say those conditions will be around when it finally moves north?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it doesnt matter unless the buzzsaw is where its headed and that is not the case

chances of redevelopment to me are higher than some may think

Agreed
Quoting 350. Ryuujin:



That was mostly for people thinking it would survive a trip north.


It doesn't look like a northward movement anytime soon (maybe at a later point). Models want to take it into the Western Caribbean and as the high builds in it will move back westward or maybe even southward - see post #344.
I went through Levi's model page and found nothing promising.

Hoping this takes the EPAC route, don't want this in the NW Caribbean!
Quoting luvtogolf:


It doesn't look like a northward movement anytime soon (maybe at a later point). Models want to take it into the Western Caribbean and as the high builds in it will move back westward or maybe even southward - see post #344.
Yah, you can see a decidedly south/southwest movement.
323. FBMinFL
1:04 AM GMT on October 24, 2014
All-

DestinJeff here. How have you been?

I've been away, officially, for some time now, and I trust I will be again in short order...

Are we supposed to care about any of this?
Quoting 344. GeoffreyWPB:







how more nuttery can the mode runs get
Quoting 355. stormpetrol:


Hoping this takes the EPAC route, don't want this in the NW Caribbean!


This doesn't look organized, but who knows after it emerges..
Quoting 359. JrWeathermanFL:



This doesn't look organized, but who knows after it emerges..


Yea, until it hits the water we won't know much. Clearly the interaction with land has helped it generate some nice storms. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
i KNOW NOBODY KNOWS...BUT sOME MODELS SHOING fLORIDA IMPACT, pOSSIBLE? Plus, i dont think it will take the route into the Pacific...just saying
Quoting 359. JrWeathermanFL:



This doesn't look organized, but who knows after it emerges..

IMO it has an intact LLC with strong convection, that's why I want it to take the EPAC route, don't like October storms in this area, they hang around like a bad dose of herpes!
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Today's partial solar eclipse is practically a non-event in South Florida. But I'm already making plans for the 2017 and 2024 total eclipses (and may even be around when the 2045 event covers much if Florida).

August 21, 2017:


April 8, 2024:


August 12, 2045:

(Six minutes of totality in Port St. Lucie)

I'm excited for the April 2024 eclipse. It will be near totality at my house (Metro Detroit) with totality being only an hour or two drive S or SE. Already thinking about where I would want to go for the 2024 event.
Quoting 306. Ryuujin:

Are we really going to go through all of this /again/ after the fiasco of wishcasting a Cat 2 into Tampa the other night? There is 60 Knots of wind from the west in the GOM and it looks to be increasing over the next few days. That's not a positive look for any storm coming into it.
Storm looks more likely to head across central Cuba, if anywhere, atm....

Quoting 323. FBMinFL:

All-

DestinJeff here. How have you been?

I've been away, officially, for some time now, and I trust I will be again in short order.

We missed u while u were gone, and we'll miss u once you are gone again. I also have it on good authority that it is possible to watch the hurricane season from Colorado, so I expect to see you around,.....
Quoting 339. DonnieBwkGA:

Time for model fantasy!


It better STAY fantasy, too....

I think I'll give our latest invest until Saturday before I write it off. I don't need some cat 14 blasting the east coast. Just give me one more name.... a gentle low-range TS that moves over Cuba and out to sea with minimum fuss.... is that too much to ask????

:o)
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hoping this takes the EPAC route, don't want this in the NW Caribbean!


I'm sorry mate doesn't look it will go that way

Link

Hope you are prepared and getting ready for it

This afternoon I was checking my shutters and closed and locked down the hard to reach ones just in case

Tomorrow I'm buying up some more supplies
Quoting stormpetrol:

IMO it has an intact LLC with strong convection, that's why I want it to take the EPAC route, don't like October storms in this area, they hang around like a bad dose of herpes!


It will be interesting to see what happens during next few days
Quoting 365. wunderkidcayman:



I'm sorry mate doesn't look it will go that way

Link

Hope you are prepared and getting ready for it

This afternoon I was checking my shutters and closed and locked down the hard to reach ones just in case

Tomorrow I'm buying up some more supplies

Maybe Florida
Quoting 365. wunderkidcayman:



I'm sorry mate doesn't look it will go that way

Link

Hope you are prepared and getting ready for it

This afternoon I was checking my shutters and closed and locked down the hard to reach ones just in case

Tomorrow I'm buying up some more supplies
I don't know if I'm taking it that seriously so far. However, I am well aware that TCHP in that area have been untapped this season, so if atmospheric conditions allow, whatever happens there could be explosive in nature. On this side of Cuba, I still have a little breathing room. YMMV.
Meanwhile, it looks like it's going to start raining again here before midnight.



Anybody feel energetic enough to post a few Cuban radars?
370. MahFL
This is a few days old, but the TCHP is off the scale S of West Cuba.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't know if I'm taking it that seriously so far. However, I am well aware that TCHP in that area have been untapped this season, so if atmospheric conditions allow, whatever happens there could be explosive in nature. On this side of Cuba, I still have a little breathing room. YMMV.

I hear ya mate

Yep them TCHP a are off the scale

Quoting MahFL:
This is a few days old, but the TCHP is off the scale S of West Cuba.



Point proven
Right now PostTD9/94L is looking really really good on radar f on both belize and Mex
Quoting 347. wunderkidcayman:



Ok starting to make some sense but not yet


Oh my gush those models make me happy I would love to have a tropical storm in here. If Cariboy could get Gonzalo I hope to get this as a tropical storm. Want rain....
FYI: On October 24, 2005-9 Years Ago Today; Hurricane Wilma Made Landfall in South Florida

One more thing...sorry lolol (Look at the Legend of what everything means and tell me what you see in the Caribbean!?
Quoting 364. BahaHurican:

Storm looks more likely to head across central Cuba, if anywhere, atm....

We missed u while u were gone, and we'll miss u once you are gone again. I also have it on good authority that it is possible to watch the hurricane season from Colorado, so I expect to see you around,.....
It better STAY fantasy, too....

I think I'll give our latest invest until Saturday before I write it off. I don't need some cat 14 blasting the east coast. Just give me one more name.... a gentle low-range TS that moves over Cuba and out to sea with minimum fuss.... is that too much to ask????

:o)
That's what I admire about you Donnie, you have always marched to the beat of a different drummer. The Yucatan is soggy. The next weak front will pick up what is left. You can call it 22 E st, 90 whatever, or the next name, but it is still the same malfeasance as before. It's name is DOOM for the non-believers.
Possible recon on Saturday

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221354
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 22 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX OF TD #9
NEAR 18.5N 86.5W AT 25/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP


Quoting 325. Grothar:

It could drop south and become an EPAC storm.




I say LBAR! *Takes it over my house. Seems logical enough.
Modellers from AIR Worldwide estimate that Gonzalo inflicted $200-$400 million (2014 USD) in damage in Bermuda when it made landfall as an upper-end Category 2 hurricane last weekend, comparable to Fabian's damage total of $300 million back in 2003. Depending on the exact total, Gonzalo may go down as the costliest hurricane on record to strike Bermuda.

The storm is responsible for 4 deaths--1 in St. Martin and 3 in Britain from Gonzalo's extratropical remnants.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Possible recon on Saturday

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221354
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 22 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX OF TD #9
NEAR 18.5N 86.5W AT 25/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP




Yay however I wish it was tomorrow evening
Quoting 373. wunderkidcayman:

Right now PostTD9/94L is looking really really good on radar f on both belize and Mex
Quoting 355. stormpetrol:


Hoping this takes the EPAC route, don't want this in the NW Caribbean!


SP
WKC
I just came in off a boat run to Kaibo, dead quiet in North Sound. Quite surprised to see this increased blow up off Belize / Bay Islands tomorrow?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Yay however I wish it was tomorrow evening
Me too. :( :P
Quoting superpete:


SP
WKC
I just came in off a boat run to Kaibo, dead quiet in North Sound. Quite surprised to see this increased blow up off Belize / Bay Islands tomorrow?

I'm actually not surprised I kinda expected this to happen
Pretty dry.

Quoting 382. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Modellers from AIR Worldwide estimate that Gonzalo inflicted $200-$400 million (2014 USD) in damage in Bermuda when it made landfall as an upper-end Category 2 hurricane last weekend, comparable to Fabian's damage total of $300 million back in 2003. Depending on the exact total, Gonzalo may go down as the costliest hurricane on record to strike Bermuda.

The storm is responsible for 4 deaths--1 in St. Martin and 3 in Britain from Gonzalo's extratropical remnants.


thats a good bit of damage, considering the island only has 65k inhabitants.
09L/REM/LOW/XX
Here is an animation & reconstruction data for precipitation since 1900. It's in a really large quicktime movie format..
Shen, S.S.P., N. Tafolla, T.M. Smith, and P.A. Arkin, 2014: Multivariate regression reconstruction and its sampling error for the quasi-global annual precipitation from 1900-2011, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 71, 3250-3268. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0301.1
Quoting 323. FBMinFL:


Keep, thanks for not outing me.


give it up u

been a slice enjoy the retirement have fun

see ya around
Quoting 387. wunderkidcayman:


I'm actually not surprised I kinda expected this to happen

Levi 32 and Drakoen also mentioned this possibilty during the last couple of days. Drak' says; 'Double barrel low pressure " potential when I-92 emerges off Yucatan. Take a look at current sfc chart.
P/
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
09L/REM/LOW/XX


Hmm..Increasing convection over land during the night. Usually this would occur during the daytime, no?
Quoting nygiants:
i KNOW NOBODY KNOWS...BUT sOME MODELS SHOING fLORIDA IMPACT, pOSSIBLE? Plus, i dont think it will take the route into the Pacific...just saying
Anything is possible but your caps lock key is apparently stuck. I wouldn't write off a trip to the Pacific just yet either.
Quoting 375. nygiants:

FYI: On October 24, 2005-9 Years Ago Today; Hurricane Wilma Made Landfall in South Florida


From Key West NWS discussion

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...A LARGE
WATERSPOUT NARROWLY MISSED MAKING LANDFALL IN KEY WEST AS IT RACED
NORTHWARD WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA. THIS VIOLENT
WATERSPOUT PASSED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR MILES WEST OF THE WEST END
OF KEY WEST.

&&
Quoting yankees440:


Hmm..Increasing convection over land during the night. Usually this would occur during the daytime, no?
Not in the tropics, especially Belize and the Yucatan. I've seen some some pretty big nighttime storms when I've been down there. Convection can flare up almost anytime.
I'd put the odds of 09L ultimately regenerating at 30%, and even that might be too generous. Far greater chance it doesn't.
Quoting 391. Skyepony:

Here is an animation & reconstruction data for precipitation since 1900. It's in a really large quicktime movie format..
Shen, S.S.P., N. Tafolla, T.M. Smith, and P.A. Arkin, 2014: Multivariate regression reconstruction and its sampling error for the quasi-global annual precipitation from 1900-2011, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 71, 3250-3268. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0301.1


Interesting .... seems the equatorial Pacific has the greatest variance. I tried to visualize dust bowl years in the mid-west USA but could not see it. - saving the reference for later - ty
Quoting 391. Skyepony:

Here is an animation & reconstruction data for precipitation since 1900. It's in a really large quicktime movie format..
Shen, S.S.P., N. Tafolla, T.M. Smith, and P.A. Arkin, 2014: Multivariate regression reconstruction and its sampling error for the quasi-global annual precipitation from 1900-2011, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 71, 3250-3268. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0301.1
What I notice over the ATL is that positive anomalies have moved north over time.
Quoting 401. BahaHurican:

What I notice over the ATL is that positive anomalies have moved north over time.
Might help to explain why tropical cyclone activity has become generally more concentrated in the subtropics over the last ten years.
Quoting 401. BahaHurican:

What I notice over the ATL is that positive anomalies have moved north over time.



Nice. Will look for that in the morning - out for now .... nite!
Quoting 378. Pallis1:

That's what I admire about you Donnie, you have always marched to the beat of a different drummer. The Yucatan is soggy. The next weak front will pick up what is left. You can call it 22 E st, 90 whatever, or the next name, but it is still the same malfeasance as before. It's name is DOOM for the non-believers.

My area of Central FL was soggy last month, but is drying out now and could use some rain. I guess the irrigation systems are my only hope to keep my new yard lush in the near future. I am honestly disappointed that yet another system looks like it will under-perform and defy many's expectations.

Quoting 404. HurrMichaelOrl:


My area of Central FL was soggy last month, but is drying out now and could use some rain. I guess the irrigation systems are my only hope to keep my new yard lush in the near future. I am honestly disappointed that yet another system looks like it will under-perform and defy many's expectations.
What expectations? No credible person actually thought this would be the next hurricane for Florida.

Evidence first, predictions later.
Having said that, I kind of think the shear will be less than what the GFS is forecasting. If you look at the water vapor imagery over the United States, it doesn't favor an amplified trough digging below 20N. If the system can survive the next three or so days, it will need to be monitored carefully.
Mean while, not in FL, we have a confirmed EF1 tornado at Longview Washington, Preparing for 70mph wind gust with the next storm, and waiting for reminisce of Ana next week. Just another fall/winter here. Even though the Portland airport received a record 2 inches rain yesterday.........................................
Quoting 404. HurrMichaelOrl:


My area of Central FL was soggy last month, but is drying out now and could use some rain. I guess the irrigation systems are my only hope to keep my new yard lush in the near future. I am honestly disappointed that yet another system looks like it will under-perform and defy many's expectations.
same here on the coast, but.this is our dry season now,and the temps will now start to be cooler and..if you look over time, your grass will start to grow slower..even stop ...in summer I have to cut every week..now its down to every two weeks...you'll see..less water needed
Good morning, and wow, look at the symmetrical beauty of ex-hurricane/now-cut-off-low Gonzalo over Greece:


Source.

For the folks beneath the clouds this means:
Greece is looking forward to some heavy precipitation within the next 24-30 hours as the decaying remnant of ex-hurricane Gonzalo passes through the region. Some areas are looking at over 100 mm of rainfall. Higher areas may expect snow, up to 30 cm.
Source: Consorzio LaMMA (SevereWeatherEurope has more)


GFS, accumulated rainfall until Saturday morning.
Wow, live here in Miami, and how quick the weather changes. We went in a couple hours from just having a couple of overnight showers to now a rapidly developing low pressure center over the straights of Florida. Now instead of a nice afternoon we can expect winds of 30-35 mph and 2-4" of rain all day. I wonder how the local weather guys missed it. Now for the fun commute to the office...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is
expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a
small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a
cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
good morning got to be racking up large amounts of rainfall s.cuba its mid 60s and cool here e cen fl.
1.24" of rain for October

Pretty noticeable end to the rainy season here in Fort Myers.

Only 37.72" of rain for the year. We should be at 51.68"


invest 94L
Quoting islander101010:
good morning got to be racking up large amounts of rainfall s.cuba its mid 60s and cool here e cen fl.


I wouldn't be suprised if some areas of Cuba received well over 10" this week. They had heavy rain almost every day in parts of central Cuba.


Well by looking at the models, it seems that 94L will go
417. MahFL
Quoting 416. JrWeathermanFL:



Well by looking at the models, it seems that 94L will go


Looking at the sat loop, it's going NE.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered over southeastern
Yucatan, Belize, and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Surface
pressures are rising in the area, and redevelopment is unlikely
while the system drifts eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
NHC need to give it a chance to get out into open waters
cuba had an event i believe back in the 1920 or 30s up to 100 inches. stalled out low level trough are dangerous too. so this is not a first time not even close.
Good morning. Off topic but just thought I'd point it out- for the first time, the SPC is utilizing their "marginal" severe risk category for tomorrow in parts of the Northwest with the big Pacific storm moving in there. No more "See Text".



Good Morning!! :)



Anybody in the Northern Bahamas on here get ready as you guys are in for some Gale Force conditions today & tonight with heavy driving rains.



Belize currently has a pressure of 1009mb.
Quoting 389. nwobilderburg:



Oh by the way the SOI is crashing right now big time so it does appear that El-Nino will be declared in December finally! Going to be a slow up hill climb though to what could be moderate El-Nino next summer and if that occurs then I sure hope everyone enjoyed this hurricane season as next year looks to be a very slow one.

Quoting 424. SFLWeatherman:

Good Morning!! :)






Interested to see the visible images this morning on 94L as it does appear to have its circulation intact and is now back over the water.
Good Morning
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Anybody in the Northern Bahamas on here get ready as you guys are in for some Gale Force conditions today & tonight with heavy driving rains.





GFS drops the pressure to 1002mb with the system when the system gets east of the Bahamas.
I wonder if the NHC upgrades it to a subtropical depression if it reaches that pressure?
Quoting 431. Sfloridacat5:



GFS drops the pressure to 1002mb with the system when the system gets east of the Bahamas.
I wonder if the NHC upgrades it to a subtropical depression if it reaches that pressure?


NHC never makes any mention of it. Either way doesn't matter as Nassau is for some very squally weather today and oddly enough I just got back from there on Monday.
Quoting 430. WxLogic:

Good Morning


It was 61 when I left for work over in Sweetwater. Very nice weather but gets hot during the day. The last october that i remember it being this warm during October was 2009 which led to a cold wet Winter & Spring so we'll see if we repeat that in 2014/2015. With El-Nino becoming more and more present i believe we are in for a real treat this Winter and upcoming Spring.
ITS RAINNING AGAIN FROM THIS NORTHEASTER AGAIN DAY 2 OF RAIN


rainnning again
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


NHC never makes any mention of it. Either way doesn't matter as Nassau is for some very squally weather today and oddly enough I just got back from there on Monday.


Heavy rain forecast for Nassau.

Friday
Thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours. High 81F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 2 to 3 inches of rain expected.

Friday Night
Thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours. Low 76F. SE winds shifting to NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 2 to 3 inches of rain expected
Yesterday from CWG
Quoting 433. StormTrackerScott:



It was 61 when I left for work over in Sweetwater. Very nice weather but gets hot during the day. The last october that i remember it being this warm during October was 2009 which led to a cold wet Winter & Spring so we'll see if we repeat that in 2014/2015. With El-Nino becoming more and more present i believe we are in for a real treat this Winter and upcoming Spring.


I hope we get another ice storm in NW Florida! I grew up in SE Minnesota and there is nothing funnier than trying to watch southerners drive on icy roads! As a bonus we got 2 days off from work because of the ice!
Winter weather outlook: Forget Polar Vortex, it may be El Niño's turn


CNN) -- Oh good, the brutal cold conditions that froze much of the country last winter are unlikely to happen again.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its seasonal outlook Thursday that some of those areas east of the Rockies might even see warmer temperatures this time.
Remember how we kept talking about the Polar Vortex last winter? Chances are there won't be as much chatter about it as we move into December and January.
"The Polar Vortex is always there," CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen reminded us. "When it breaks, it spills cold air into the U.S. It's pretty unlikely that it would happen two years in a row."
Looks like NOAA agrees, though it warns folks in the South and Southeast to expect below-average temperatures -- and more precipitation.
So cities like Detroit and Chicago that saw record amounts -- or near records -- of snow shouldn't have as much of the white stuff, but Atlanta and Dallas may have to keep their snow plows ready, Hennen said.
While we probably won't hear as much about the Polar Vortex, we might see El Niño move his way back into the weather discussion.
Hennen said forecasters have been waiting for an El Niño to form in the Pacific, but it has yet to materialize.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts it as a 67% likelihood of happening during the winter. But the El Niño will be a weak one and bring only some rain to drought-stricken California and other states in the West.

"We're likely to see normal amounts of rain," Hennen said, "which will help with the drought, but not alleviate it."
Breakdown by region of what NOAA expects:

Northeast --- above-average temperatures, above-average precipitation along the coast. Hennen said it's important to remember that a lot of storm systems start in the South and work their way up the coast, so cities like New York and Boston might get more than their normal amounts of snow.

Mid-Atlantic -- temperatures should be about normal as will the precipitation amounts in the interior parts of each state; wetter toward the ocean

Midwest -- Should be normal in temperature and precipitation in most areas

South -- colder, wetter in most areas

West -- above-average temperatures throughout, above-average precipitation in some southerly spots

Pacific Northwest --- drier and warmer than most years

Alaska -- Warmer, normal precipitation

Hawaii -- It's always nice, it seems, but expect less rain this season
94 is moving tight. Probably not a good idea to rent a Hobie Cat in Key West this weekend.
441. MahFL
Boom ! there she goes.

freak weather is due to global warming or is it due to internet access its always been that way. combination of both make it even scarier.
According to new charts

Vort data suggest that postTD9/94L is splitting off its shared vort with the Cuban non Trop low

This will help postTD9/94L LLC to restrenghten
Shouldn't the NHC give 94L a chance, why are they saying development is UNLIKLEY?
Quoting MahFL:
Boom ! there she goes.



Nearly there not yet

LLC further S near 17.5N 88W give or take

Nice to see postTD9/94L developing seaborne convection
Quoting nygiants:
Shouldn't the NHC give 94L a chance, why are they saying development is UNLIKLEY?

NHC is downplaying 94L
Which is a bad call if this redevelops which it may it would catch some people off gaurd
Good Morning!

Interesting.

Tropical Depression #9 was originally Invest 93L. It moved ashore in the Yucatan.

After making landfall, T.D. #9 dissipated into a remnant low. They briefly dropped reporting on the system for 6 hours or so...

Now that it is again being watched by the NHC, and became "another area of interest," it was renamed 94L. ??

This is still the same original system ... the remnants of T.D. #9????

Why is it not 93L again, or do they consider this a new area of interest, combined with the non-tropical low pressure system to its east?
Quoting 413. Sfloridacat5:

1.24" of rain for October

Pretty noticeable end to the rainy season here in Fort Myers.

Only 37.72" of rain for the year. We should be at 51.68"


Amen, Sf5; I've been in SoFla the last five years -- living in Cape Coral -- and this was one of the driest summers ever for me. I watched an awful lot of rain skip the south Cape for other parts, and August was a complete bust here. I sure was hoping something weak and wet would wander out of the Gulf or NW Caribbean and load us up good before winter locks the doors.
Quoting 428. StormTrackerScott:

Oh by the way the SOI is crashing right now big time so it does appear that El-Nino will be declared in December finally! Going to be a slow up hill climb though to what could be moderate El-Nino next summer and if that occurs then I sure hope everyone enjoyed this hurricane season as next year looks to be a very slow one.




Just saying 2004 Hurricane Season was active DURING an El Nino.
Current conditions is Consejo, Belize - Just across the border form Chetumal, Mexico:

WInd NNE at 5kts
Pressure 1011mb
Overcast
Rain last 24 hours 0.44"
Rain today 0.11"

We are about 10" below normal for the year to date and we were hoping for some more significant rain. Maybe latter.
Quoting 446. wunderkidcayman:


NHC is downplaying 94L
Which is a bad call if this redevelops which it may it would catch some people off gaurd

Got it...thanks! Helped a lot :D
Re: #454 (and others) - as narrow as SoFla peninsula is, it's astonishing how different the weather can be from one coast to the other. Almost none of the rain that has plagued the east coast has visited us just 90 miles over on the west coast, and I'm sure the view from the beach balconies in FtLaud and Miami this a.m. couldn't be more different from the dry, brilliant blues I'm looking at right now in the Cape.
No sun at all right now in WPB and looks like it may rain
Quoting 455. OrchidGrower:

Re: #454 (and others) - as narrow as SoFla peninsula is, it's astonishing how different the weather can be from one coast to the other. Almost none of the rain that has plagued the east coast has visited us just 90 miles over on the west coast, and I'm sure the view from the beach balconies in FtLaud and Miami this a.m. couldn't be more different from the dry, brilliant blues I'm looking at right now in the Cape.
Best track data puts it near 18.4N 87.5W
I disagree its further S near 18.0N 87.5W

And knowing that best track data is not always correct
I may just be right
Quoting 450. boltdwright:



Just saying 2004 Hurricane Season was active DURING an El Nino.

However, 2004 was not a traditional El Nino, it was a Modoki El Nino. The latter are well correlated to active seasons.
18Z HWRF from last night

Weather here in Roatan Honduras is now overcast with a westerly wind slowly picking up.
While we're at it: I can't help but wonder about the mid- and upper-level dryness that has limited or snuffed so many tropical systems these last few years. Big events: the drought in the Amazon, the heavy dominance of SAL over the Atlantic, the inability of El Nino to fully switch on ... all make me wonder if we've deforested enough of the Americas to start a "feedback loop" that makes the cycle of Western dryness easier and easier to perpetuate. Though I'm sure some folks will say that the entire cause is the Pacific's current cold PDO cycle, I have personally experienced (on a regional level) the atmospheric-drying effects of severe deforestation and expect there has to come a point where enough of it has happened to make some sort of difference in weather/climate over a broad region.

I'm at work now, so getting off my soapbox... have a great day, everybody :-)
Quoting 455. OrchidGrower:

Re: #454 (and others) - as narrow as SoFla peninsula is, it's astonishing how different the weather can be from one coast to the other. Almost none of the rain that has plagued the east coast has visited us just 90 miles over on the west coast, and I'm sure the view from the beach balconies in FtLaud and Miami this a.m. couldn't be more different from the dry, brilliant blues I'm looking at right now in the Cape.


I was going to comment on this earlier. Miami has a 90% chance of rain today; Naples is at 0%. And while some very heavy rains have affected parts of South Florida this past week--Miami, Palm Beach, the Keys, and so on--Naples hasn't seen an official drop of precipitation since the 15th. We're at 1.43" for the month, which is well below the to-date avarage of 3.5" Having said all that, however, we're still above normal for both the year and the period beginning June 1st thanks to a fairly wet summer.
463. MahFL
Quoting 450. boltdwright:



Just saying 2004 Hurricane Season was active DURING an El Nino.


It wasn't, the El Nino that year had already ended.

Quoting 462. Neapolitan:



I was going to comment on this earlier. Miami has a 90% chance of rain today; Naples is at 0%. And while some very heavy rains have affected parts of South Florida this past week--Miami, Palm Beach, the Keys, and so on--Naples hasn't seen an official drop of precipitation since the 15th. We're at 1.43" for the month, which is well below the to-date avarage of 3.5" Having said all that, however, we're still above normal for both the year and the period beginning June 1st thanks to a fairly wet summer.
Quoting eddiedollar:
Weather here in Roatan Honduras is now overcast with a westerly wind slowly picking up.


Good
I commission you to give us a report on the conditions every so often

Please and thank you
467. MahFL
Some weak banding still remains with the remanent low.

Quoting 460. eddiedollar:

Weather here in Roatan Honduras is now overcast with a westerly wind slowly picking up.


Thanks for posting ,good to hear from Roatan, one of my favorite places in the world!
best case scenario is for 94 to get up and get out of there or worst case is it to stall and meander around the area for another week or two.
Quoting 464. SFLWeatherman:





kinda looks like that map is flipping us off.
Lol
Quoting 473. BobinTampa:



kinda looks like that map is flipping us off.
475. 7544
Quoting 465. LargoFl:




morning all looks like models want to curve this one to south fl today ?
Very variable
wind here in North East Dade. It'll go from a slight breeze for 5 minutes to 30 mph gusts. The rain looks like it'll show up in a couple hours at most.
Quoting 463. MahFL:



It wasn't, the El Nino that year had already ended.


It was just beginning, El Nino was declared during June, July, August period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Currently in Consejo, Belize - Just across the border form Chetumal, Mexico:
WInd:        NNW (342) at 3kts
Pressure: 1012mb - Rising
Temp:       77F
Humidity:  97%

Overcast
Rain Last Hour:  0
Rain Today:  0.11"
Rain Last 24 Hours:  0.44"
Storm Total Rain (10/22):  1.76"


Quoting 432. StormTrackerScott:



NHC never makes any mention of it. Either way doesn't matter as Nassau is for some very squally weather today and oddly enough I just got back from there on Monday.
I fly back home to Nassau this afternoon from Ft. Lauderdale, don't think it will be too bad just a little squally
Quoting 477. boltdwright:



It was just beginning, El Nino was declared during June, July, August period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
true indeed..It looked Modokiish to me tho...Sept of 2004..

It could get really cold by Halloween for many in the East!!!
Quoting 481. weatherbro:

It could get really cold by Halloween for many in the East!!!


Maybe--but I doubt it:

Quoting 475. 7544:



morning all looks like models want to curve this one to south fl today ?
yes sure looks like it

invest 94L
Quoting Neapolitan:


Maybe--but I doubt it:



The GFS was showing a significant cold blast for the SE United States a few days ago in the long run and has since dropped that. However the 00z ECMWF is starting to show a rather decent shot of cool air coming down into the eastern part of the country by Halloween, so we'll see!

looks like hurricane is shuting down for the season wind shear is takeing over scott was right on the $ when he said we would olny get 5 to 7 name storms and he was so right and me has well so we both get a golden cookie

Weak El Nino Evolving by Year-End as Sea Warmer Than Usual
By Ranjeetha Pakiam Oct 24, 2014 4:17 AM MT 0 Comments Email Print
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A weak El Nino will probably develop by the year-end, according to MDA Weather Services.

While sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal across most areas in the tropical Pacific ocean, it still doesn’t qualify as an El Nino, Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist at MDA in Gaithersburg, Maryland said in response to e-mailed questions Oct. 20. Some additional warming could lead to the development of a weak El Nino, he said.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained its El Nino watch status this week, indicating at least a 50 percent chance of a late-season event. El Ninos can move agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought in Asia or too much rain in South America. Palm oil, cocoa, coffee and sugar are among crops most at risk, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“We are currently near the threshold of a weak El Nino, in what we call the positive neutral phase, where the waters are warmer than normal, but not quite warm enough to be classified as an El Nino,” Tapley said. “It is likely we will see a weak El Nino develop by the end of this year.”

Two of eight models are just shy of thresholds for an El Nino, while another three models show thresholds will be reached by January, the Melbourne-based Bureau of Meteorology said Oct. 21. While a weak El Nino is possible, the chances of a moderate-to-strong one is “very low”, said David Streit, co-founder of Bethesda, Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group LLC.
94s show is not over it looks like whatever is left of it is now over water
in other news looks like Hurricane Odile did $1.1 billion in damges


Link
Quoting 488. islander101010:

94s show is not over it looks like whatever is left of it is now over water


94L is done the nhc nos what they are doing
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered over southeastern
Yucatan, Belize, and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Surface
pressures are rising in the area, and redevelopment is unlikely
while the system drifts eastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

NHC is giving ud mixed signals

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW WILL ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS LATE SAT. A LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN JAMIACA AND HONDURAS LATE
SAT...THEN MOVE W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN THROUGH TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS SAT AND SUN...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON.
Quoting 486. Tazmanian:

looks like hurricane is shuting down for the season wind shear is takeing over scott was right on the $ when he said we would olny get 5 to 7 name storms and he was so right and me has well so we both get a golden cookie


yes I guess the season is just about over
Quoting 486. Tazmanian:

looks like hurricane is shuting down for the season wind shear is takeing over scott was right on the $ when he said we would olny get 5 to 7 name storms and he was so right and me has well so we both get a golden cookie


i say we get two more, if not , crow broiled might not be too tough.
Good morning

94L has now made it offshore Belize and continues eastward. Yesterday morning I mentioned that 94L could be overtaken by the front as it sags to the South and become absorbed on the tail end, only to produce a new low thereafter. I still consider this a distinct possibility depending on the timing of the forward motion and trajectory of 94L, the speed at which the front moves to the SE through the NW Caribbean and where it eventually stalls.

94L is likely to continue to the East or just South of due East today so this scenario will need to play out over the next 24 hours before the situation will become clearer.

For now 94L is very disorganized with the mid level circulation moving off to the NE away from the surface low that is moving Eastward but it is back over water with a chance to consolidate. Local conditions will see periods of heavy rain here as the westerly flow drives cloud cover in this direction. Could be a wet weekend for us with the first round of showers about to arrive. Grand Cayman is just under the leading edge of this cloud mass

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 446. wunderkidcayman:


NHC is downplaying 94L
Which is a bad call if this redevelops which it may it would catch some people off gaurd


Actually it's a good call. There's nothing there right now. Maybe there will be in a few days time, in which case they can start issuing advisories. This is not even a blob right now.