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Tropical Depression Nine approaches the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012

Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the waters a day's journey from the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed west towards the islands at 20 mph. This storm could be trouble for much of the Caribbean, and may affect the mainland U.S. next week. TD 9 is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and will keep development slow today. This morning's visible satellite loops show that TD 9's heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the north side, due to the dry air. TD 9 has yet to develop a good upper level outflow channel, which will also keep development slow today. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that the winds at high levels are blowing fairly uniformly from the east over the storm, and these winds would have to take on a more counter-clockwise pattern over TD 9 to produce the most efficient upper-level outflow. The clump of heavy thunderstorms to the southeast of TD 9 is also a limiting factor; this clump of heavy thunderstorms is competing for moisture and interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. However, if TD 9 manages to wrap in this extra clump of heavy thunderstorms and add their spin to its own spin, it could become a very large and dangerous storm. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around TD 9's circulation center, but this is being hampered by dry air. The center of TD 9 passed about 20 miles to the north of buoy 41040 at 10 am this Tuesday morning. The buoy recorded top winds of just 18 mph this morning, suggesting that this is not yet Tropical Storm Isaac. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 9 is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 9.

Intensity forecast for TD 9
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 28°C this morning to 29°C by Wednesday afternoon, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period. The low wind shear and warm waters will favor strengthening. The main impediment to development through Wednesday will be dry air to the north, though the storm will also have trouble separating from the clump of thunderstorms to its southeast. I expect that TD 9 will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday. The official NHC forecast of a 60 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon is on the aggressive side, and I put the most likely range of strengths for TD 9 Wednesday afternoon at 45 - 60 mph. Once TD 9 enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to a hurricane. Intensity forecasts 4 - 5 days out are low in skill, though, and it would not be a surprise at all to see TD 9 struggle like so many other storms have over the past two years, and remain a tropical storm over the next five days. Conversely, rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now, as the official NHC and HWRF model forecasts are suggesting may happen, would also not be a surprise.

Impact of TD 9 on the Islands
The entire Lesser Antilles Islands chain will have a three-day period of heavy weather Wednesday through Friday, as TD 9 and the associated area of heavy thunderstorms to its southeast passes through. Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 40 - 60 mph will occur in the islands only on Wednesday, with Guadaloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Martinique, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis at highest risk of these winds.

TD 9 will make its closest approach to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and heavy rains from the storm will affect these islands Thursday through Saturday. Tropical storm-force winds should remain just south of these islands.

On Thursday night, heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. If the center of TD 9 remains offshore, as appears likely, heavy rains from TD 9 will still be a danger to the country. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating flash floods and mudslides. We can't rule out a direct hit on the Dominican Republic on Thursday evening or Friday morning, since the country is well within the NHC cone of uncertainty.

TD 9 is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from TD 9 will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches are possible, which will be capable to causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti.

Longer-range outlook for TD 9
Heavy rains from TD 9 will begin in Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Friday night, but our vision of where the storm might be headed after Friday gets blurry. The official NHC track forecast at long ranges is heavily weighted towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which have done the best job predicting TD 9's path so far. In general, the models have been predicting a track too far to the north for TD 9, and I expect the storm will remain south of Hispaniola, avoiding the disruptive impact of that island's high mountains. While the current NHC forecast has TD 9 hitting Cuba just north of Jamaica five days from now, keep in mind that the average error in a 5-day forecast is 260 miles. Given the tendency of the models to predict a track too far to the north for this storm, and this season's general steering pattern that has already taken two storms into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, we should not be surprised if TD 9 takes a more southerly path than the official NHC forecast, and potentially become a threat to western Cuba or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. A trough of low pressure capable of pulling TD 9 to the north enters Western Canada Thursday, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough as it crosses the U.S. this weekend will determine the ultimate landfall location of TD 9. The ECMWF model has a more northwards position for the trough, and thus keeps TD 9 moving more slowly and father south than the GFS. Both of these models predict an eventual landfall for TD 9 over Florida, and TD 9 is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30. I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. The odds in the current situation are higher, somewhere in the 1% - 3% range. It would take a "perfect storm" sort of conditions to all fall in place to bring TD 9 to the doorstep of Tampa as a hurricane during the convention, but that is one of the possibilities the models have been suggesting could happen.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) is in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the west, suggesting that a surface circulation may be trying to form. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does not show any organization to the precipitation echoes, though, and visible satellite loops show that 95L is small and disorganized, and some arc-shaped low clouds expanding away from the storm on its north side suggest 95L is ingesting dry air that is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts, robbing the storm of moisture and energy. The computer models show that 95L should drift westwards over Mexico by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic 450 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 mph. This disturbance has an impressive amount of spin, as seen on visible satellite loops, and a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is under a light 5 - 10 knots of wind shear. Given that TD 9 has moistened up the atmosphere ahead of 96L, this disturbance should have less of a problem with dry air. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. This disturbance will track nearly due west the next three days, then is expected to turn more to the west-northwest late this week, bringing it close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday.

Typhoon Tembin a threat to Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, we have Typhoon Tembin, which put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, going from a 50 mph tropical storm to a Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds in just 24 hours. Tembin is currently a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds, and is expected to hit Taiwan on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. Farther out to sea, Typhoon Bolaven has formed northwest of Guam. Bolaven is expected to become a Category 3 typhoon as it heads toward China, and may pass very close to Taiwan this weekend.


Figure 3. Typhoon Tembin near the Philippines on Monday August 20, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Convection increasing on the east side.

1002. bappit
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wonder how many times Rachel Ray has said EVOO

Who is Rachel Ray and what difference does it make?
Carl Parker earlier on TWC:
"The storm is not exactly looking good right now. It is becoming less and less likely it will become a tropical storm today...maybe tomorrow."

Woops!
1004. BVImom
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


This should totally be stickied to the top of the blogs!


I totally agree. I'm still waiting to see if a track can be nailed down in time for the rest of the BVI to be put on alert. Most people in town were totally ambivalent about it, convinced it was a) not so strong and b) going to go way south of us. I wish I could be so sure so I didn't have to prep either.
1005. hydrus
Quoting opal92nwf:
Here's my forecast from last night.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

And today's
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
I wish I knew how to make a map like that.
1006. Levi32
Finally hit the true center: 1004.9mb.

Quoting opal92nwf:
Here's my forecast from last night.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

And today's
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Opal.... Maybe a good track.. Do you have experience or is this an amateur guesstimate... No offense, Just like to know whom I am to trust.
Quoting cyclonekid:
45mph TS Isaac?

Time: 18:43:00Z
Coordinates: 15.4833N 52.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 984.0 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 212 meters (~ 696 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 149° at 42 knots (From the SSE at ~ 48.3 mph)
Air Temp: 21.7°C* (~ 71.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)


yehh!! TS ISAAC...I was becoming concerned with the idea that 95L could make it to TS before this one did... no crappy storm deserves the I name
1009. txwcc
Quoting bappit:

Who is Rachel Ray and what difference does it make?

All the difference in the world.
Time: 18:58:30Z
Coordinates: 15.3333N 53.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 984.0 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 184 meters (~ 604 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.9 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 109° at 1 knots (From the ESE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 25.0°C* (~ 77.0°F*)
Dew Pt: 25.0°C* (~ 77.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

1005 MB
Quoting sporteguy03:


It will be very interesting though if the Euro stays apart from the GFS Operational..I think the NHC learned from Debbby that it can't completely ignore it and in a possible dangerous situation in days 5 and beyond there will no doubt be alot of discussion in the NHC as to which model is handling it best.

Remember though just a day or so ago the Euro was not developing it, but the GFS has remained very consistent.
1012. will40
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Time: 18:29:30Z
Coordinates: 15.2833N 53.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 253 meters (~ 830 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.5 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 301° at 5 knots (From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Dew Pt: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 18:30:30Z
Coordinates: 15.2833N 53.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 252 meters (~ 827 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.4 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 229° at 7 knots (From the SW at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Dew Pt: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Its closed.



ty Dean
1013. wpb
hmrh noth of central cuba 44 knots
gfdl south fla 16 knots

high end models
Time: 18:58:30Z
Coordinates: 15.3333N 53.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 984.0 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 184 meters (~ 604 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.9 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 109° at 1 knots (From the ESE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 25.0°C* (~ 77.0°F*)
Dew Pt: 25.0°C* (~ 77.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting bappit:

Who is Rachel Ray and what difference does it make?
LOL
Pretty consistent 40-45mph winds from recon... Almost certainly a TS at 5.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looking a LOT like a developing typhoon in the WPAC, that's what caught my attention. It's using the monsoon trough to its advantage.


Yeah, it's an usual sight in the Central Atlantic.
1018. GetReal
Quoting cat6band:



wow...just got on...are they moving the models more?? First I'm seeing of this...


That was the last run of the Euro... Plenty time for many more shifts.
Twin typhoons in the Western Pacific. The one on the left is 115mph Typhoon Tembin and the one on the right is 75mph Typhoon Bonvalen.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Opal.... Maybe a good track.. Do you have experience or is this an amateur guesstimate... No offense, Just like to know whom I am to trust.
Its the internet trust no one. (No offense to Opal)
1021. hydrus
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I may be totally wrong, but looking at the graphs and all everyone posting, by the millibars Issac don't look like he's gonna be very strong wind wise. Like I said I may not be looking at it right. I'm still trying to learn how to read them things there.

sheri
This is a large System, even when conditions become better for strengthening it will take a while. Just me harmless opinion. Good afternoon Sheri..:)
2PM
UKMET has still been the best so far IMO:

Greetings from Jamaica to Dr. Masters and all bloggers...for many years during the Hurricane Season I have been coming here for all the info and decided to join. Currently focused on potential Isaac. What are your views on the effects of this system affecting Jamaica?
The Euro is not a good model, correct?? I think I will go by the GFS. Seems to be better with storms this year.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
S do we have a TS now????
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 183° at 42 knots (From the S at ~ 48.3 mph


Generally, we use surface winds to determine the strength of a tropical cyclone, not flight level winds.
Td 9 could possibly do a charley track from 2004? Im not liking the 12Z run from the euro model...I live in fla panhandle..we'll know more for sure by weeks end where it will eventually go hopefully
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2PM
My goodness...Quite a change in the Ensemble
So far...
TS ISAAC
45 Mph
1005 MB.
1030. bappit
Quoting hydrus:
When this gets into the Caribbean, the models will do a much better job.

Yeah. In two days the five day forecast will be only a three day forecast.
1031. Levi32
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
The Euro is not a good model, correct?? I think I will go by the GFS. Seems to be better with storms this year.


The Euro is the most skillful model we have on average, but it is not immune to being a real skunk once in a while either. For now it's an outlier. That could change later.
1032. A4Guy
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Opal.... Maybe a good track.. Do you have experience or is this an amateur guesstimate... No offense, Just like to know whom I am to trust.


My advice...trust the NHC.
Almost everyone on here is either guessing or intentially throwing out scenarios to stir the pot. A few very knowledgeable folks have ood hypotheses...but I have never seen the NHC really flub it. Sure....3 days from now the track for the next 3 days can be very different than it is today...but they are usually spot on for the next couple of days (i.e., you won't see a dramatic shift in the 3-day track).
1033. bappit
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Opal.... Maybe a good track.. Do you have experience or is this an amateur guesstimate... No offense, Just like to know whom I am to trust.

Everyone on this blog is an amateur/wannabe.
1034. GetReal
Quoting bappit:

Yeah. In two days the five day forecast will be only a three day forecast.
And you commented on my inane post....... LOL. Just kidding
1036. bappit
Quoting cyclonekid:
Twin typhoons in the Western Pacific. The one on the left is 115mph Typhoon Tembin and the one on the right is 75mph Typhoon Bonvalen.


Bonvalen is a monster. Look how big it is!!!!
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT

interesting
First funktop high tower green dots.....

1039. A4Guy
Quoting GetReal:


That was the last run of the Euro... Plenty time for many more shifts.


All the Gulfcasters will keep citing the Euro model, since it's the one bringing the storm to their doorstep. The Tampacasters will cite the GFS, and the East Coast casters will cite all the others.

Trust the FOREcasters at the NHC that have PHDs in meteorrolgy, not the kid eating cereal on his parent's couch. :)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
Quoting hydrus:
This is a large System, even when conditions become better for strengthening it will take a while. Just me harmless opinion. Good afternoon Sheri..:)


I was just thinking that, looking at the satellite, is it just me or is that one big-ass storm?
either path or model track I firmly beleive florida could be in bullseye with this one whether west or east coast
Convection is trying to build over the center, it's starting to cover the S side:

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
First funktop high tower green dots.....



Funky...
1045. ncstorm
So how many people are cleaning up drinks out of their keyboard after that Euro run?
46 mph SFMR Wind reported
1047. CJ5
What will be interesting to see is that if models trend W on 94L, does 96l get a corresponding shift as well. I think a worst case would be central gulf and FL near simultaneous hit. Just saying....
Updated the Quick Links page to include Huffman's page with the ECMWF, and the NCAR spaghetti mode site.
Dear Tampa,

It's your turn.

Best,

Isaac
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT


Yup... 45 MPH Isaac at 1005 mb so far.
Quoting CJ5:
What will be interesting to see is that if models trend W on 94L, does 96l get a corresponding shift as well. I think a worst case would be central gulf and FL near simultaneous hit. Just saying....



not 94L any more TD 9
Is Louisiana out of the woods?
1053. txwcc
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection is trying to build over the center, it's starting to cover the S side:



Beginning to wrap up. It's starting to feel those increasingly favorable conditions.
1054. txwcc
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Is Louisiana out of the woods?


No. Not even close.
Quoting gatorchomp:
Dear Tampa,

It's your turn.

Best,

Isaac
Not an appropriate comment gator...
there has never, ever been so much as a dinky little invest about which someone here did not say Florida is gonna be Ground Zero
Vortex message out, supports a 45mph Tropical Storm Isaac.
1058. yqt1001
Bolaven funktop:



Amazingly deep convection!
It is very possible the center gets drawn southward under the heaviest thunderstorms over the next few hours.
1060. txwcc
Quoting gatorchomp:
Dear Tampa,

It's your turn.

Best,

Isaac


Classic!
not TD9 any more Tropical Storm Isaac lol
Quoting Tazmanian:



not 94L any more TD 9
Quoting hydrus:
This is a large System, even when conditions become better for strengthening it will take a while. Just me harmless opinion. Good afternoon Sheri..:)


Hey, Good afternoon to ya to. Thanks for the answer. I was thinking no one could see me. I post a question way earlier and didn't get a reply it was about Floodman, hadn't seen him around. This storm looks like it's gonna be hard to figure out. All I really do is sit back and read anymore. I haven't seen Kman or Pottery today either,

Sheri
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
The Euro is not a good model, correct?? I think I will go by the GFS. Seems to be better with storms this year.
I think it is one of the better models, but it just happens to be the outlier at this point. The GFS, UKMET and others are far to the right or this one model run. It's a long way off still. A lot will change.
After looking at alot of data .This will be a west Mississippi storm
1065. LargoFl
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Is Louisiana out of the woods?
big NO
Quoting mikatnight:


I was just thinking that, looking at the satellite, is it just me or is that one big-ass storm?


Language... but I agree with you :)

Quoting GetReal:


I have gulf front property in Perdido Key, and would not want to have a hurricane at either of the two places.


Family has property in both also. Would love for this storm to miss both, but that still means someone gets hit. The damage from Ivan on PK was unreal. Unfortunately, this storm won't go due N right now and spare all.
Quoting gatorchomp:
Dear Tampa,

It's your turn.

Best,

Isaac


Maybe the Messiah - ooops, I mean Tim can say a prayer for us.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Vortex message out, supports a 45mph Tropical Storm Isaac.
NO NO NO!!!!!

Tell them to fly on to 96L.. 96L is the REAL DEAL.
94L is Joyce. Case closed.
TD9 is fighting a few various factors right now thus it remains weak. The system will likely slowly get it's act together as shear weakens, dry air moistens up and the storm slows in a couple of days. But the longer it takes to intensify and organize the further south it will stay before the turn northward. So interests in the Gulf will need to start paying closer attention. ZOOM RADAR
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
The Euro is not a good model, correct?? I think I will go by the GFS. Seems to be better with storms this year.


It is a good right up there with the GFS. It might be picking up something that the GFS has not seen yet. If it remains consistent that being the Euro then it is defintely something to take into consideration.
Quoting ncstorm:
So how many people are cleaning up drinks out of their keyboard after that Euro run?


Yeah, that was awful. Put in the disclaimer...MODEL TRACKS CAN AND WILL CHANGE...not for you NC I know you know that. :)
1073. will40
Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
Quoting presslord:
there has never, ever been so much as a dinky little invest about which someone here did not say Florida is gonna be Ground Zero
I thinks that Hurricane Gordon and Florida were never mentioned in the same sentence, until now.
1075. Michfan
NVM Wrong floater. LOL. For a second there i was like what happened here.
1076. bappit
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And you commented on my inane post....... LOL. Just kidding

I was making an intelligent comment on hydrus inane post thank you very much. So I looked her up in Wikipedia.
Quoting lovemamatus:
NO NO NO!!!!!

Tell them to fly on to 96L.. 96L is the REAL DEAL.
94L is Joyce. Case closed.


I'm sorry to say, but 94L/TD 9 will be Isaac at 5.
Vortex message supports a 40kt/1005mb 5p.m (or sooner?) advisory.
1079. yoboi
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Is Louisiana out of the woods?


nah what part of la ya from???
Quoting presslord:
there has never, ever been so much as a dinky little invest about which someone here did not say Florida is gonna be Ground Zero
One day I shot an elephant in my pajamas.....How he got in my pajamas I'll never know.
Quoting lovemamatus:
NO NO NO!!!!!

Tell them to fly on to 96L.. 96L is the REAL DEAL.
94L is Joyce. Case closed.


They don't have enough gas to fly all that way out to 96L.

Speaking about 96L, it does look impressive. Could very well become TS Joyce.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They don't have enough gas to fly all that way out to 96L.

Speaking about 96L, it does look impressive. Could very well become TS Joyce.


May also eventually be a threat after TD 9/Isaac.

Quoting HurricaneJamaica:
Greetings from Jamaica to Dr. Masters and all bloggers...for many years during the Hurricane Season I have been coming here for all the info and decided to join. Currently focused on potential Isaac. What are your views on the effects of this system affecting Jamaica?
The possible effects: wind and rain.  Affecting your lawn and trash cans! It looks like it may scoot north of you, but you will still see squally weather i believe, still far out.
Quoting yqt1001:
Bolaven funktop:



Amazingly deep convection!

WOW
Quoting mikatnight:


I was just thinking that, looking at the satellite, is it just me or is that one big-ass storm?


As big as is it right know it looks as big as the GOM to me and that's not good.

sheri
1086. bappit
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
First funktop high tower green dots.....


That one spot on the south side of the center has been consistently putting out some tall convection since about 1 am CDT, about the only thing driving it.
Quoting LargoFl:
big NO


Thanks..I'll keep a close eye out
9-3-0 on August 21. Mark it down.
1089. CJ5
Well, one thing is for sure, the blog will be expand greatly with each passing day. And with that, every possible scenario will get posted. Knowledgeable or otherwise.
The 12Z Euro is what I am talking about people. This is just one of many possibilities with this system. That is 8-10 days out there is lots of error still to be had. I have seen these models change drastically over periods of days...NO ONE on the gulf coast is out of the equation at this time
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They don't have enough gas to fly all that way out to 96L.

Speaking about 96L, it does look impressive. Could very well become TS Joyce.
I've never understood why they can't construct a base on one of the southern Cape Verde islands.
1092. txwcc
CPC just came out with their 6-10 outlook. They sure are onboard with a landfall somewhere in the Southeast...

1093. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #9

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Early Model Wind Forecasts

Location of the storm from that message is 15.3333N 53.3333W.
It seems like whenever the NHC is tracking a storm, I read the statement, "the Euro has come into agreement with the other models, more times than the other way around. 18z is just around the corner and we can compare notes.

Wow, it's really raining hard here in Tampa Bay area. 3:23 pm
1096. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
9-3-0 on August 21. Mark it down.

It's still a bust season.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND

1099. bappit
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Is Louisiana out of the woods?

Wait and see.
Quoting stormhank:
either path or model track I firmly beleive florida could be in bullseye with this one whether west or east coast


I totally agree based on how the models are currently tracking Isaac.
Quoting CJ5:
Well, one thing is for sure, the blog will be expand greatly with each passing day. And with that, every possible scenario will get posted. Knowledgeable or otherwise.


there'll be a hell of a lot more "otherwise"
1102. LargoFl
1103. bappit
Quoting yqt1001:
Bolaven funktop:



Amazingly deep convection!

That's how it's done.
It is way to early to be certain where Isaac is going. I give it another day before the models tell us if it is even going to head into the western gulf. Right now most are insisting he is headed for East Florida. Now with that said, watch out in the GOM. GFS has been a southern predictor this year and all of the sudden it is all over the western GOM. That should have some people getting nervous. The GFS model is one of the most reliable from what I have seen. It was right about Hurricane Ernesto.
1105. icmoore
Quoting A4Guy:


All the Gulfcasters will keep citing the Euro model, since it's the one bringing the storm to their doorstep. The Tampacasters will cite the GFS, and the East Coast casters will cite all the others.

Trust the FOREcasters at the NHC that have PHDs in meteorrolgy, not the kid eating cereal on his parent's couch. :)


For the life of me I can't understand "wishcasting".
I live a block and a half away from the GOM and do not want to even consider what some models show could happen to my little cottage. People have to remember that not including the panhandle the rest of the peninsular is probably not more than 150-160 miles wide at the widest...now think about a really large storm.
Quoting yoboi:


nah what part of la ya from???


Baton Rouge
1107. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, that was awful. Put in the disclaimer...MODEL TRACKS CAN AND WILL CHANGE...not for you NC I know you know that. :)

there are some people right now packing up their belongings and making reservations at some hotel 400 miles inland because some blogger on here has called them and told them the coastline will be falling into the sea at the end of this week....LOL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've never understood why they can't construct a base on one of the southern Cape Verde islands.


I'm guessing they've tried but never got permission for that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've never understood why they can't construct a base on one of the southern Cape Verde islands.
Mostly likely reason is economic perhaps political.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's still a bust season.
MA.Curious, Where do you live?
We have Isaac

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS,
What the heck have 09L and 96L been eating? They are huge!

Quoting Bluestorm5:


Language... but I agree with you :)



Well, I guess I could've called it a big-butt storm, but that's offensive to me. Is there a list of words you can't write? On second thought, nevermind. Such a list would surely cause me to blush out of control.
Will S FL be in the at track at 5PM????
Quoting lovemamatus:
NO NO NO!!!!!

Tell them to fly on to 96L.. 96L is the REAL DEAL.
94L is Joyce. Case closed.


1. 96L is well out of range of the HH flights
2. There is no reliable scatterometer data that could say 96L has a defined surface circulation, nor are there any low level clouds streaming from the center that are visible on satellite.
3. 94L will be classified as Isaac at 5:00 based on recon observations that confirm it is a 40 knot TS with minimum central pressure at 1005 mb and dropping.
1116. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIMS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MAYTOWN...SCOTTSMOOR...HAULOVER CANAL...OAK HILL...EDGEWATER...
ELDORA...APOLLO BEACH...NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND BETHUNE BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Is Louisiana out of the woods?
Too soon to tell....looks more like NOLA/Grand Isle eastward needs to watch this. Still betting more on FL landfall, but anything can happen.
Intensity of TD9/Isaac will be mostly dependant on land intercaion in the Caribbean, especially with Hispaniola and later on Cuba. The conditions are good enough for intensification, so if it threads the needles between the islands it could become a major. But if it plows over every one of them it might not even make hurricane status.
1119. pcola57
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looking a LOT like a developing typhoon in the WPAC, that's what caught my attention. It's using the monsoon trough to its advantage.


You can see the edges of Typhon Bolaven W/NW of Guam..very large monsoonal..well just LARGE period.. :)





1120. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've never understood why they can't construct a base on one of the southern Cape Verde islands.


No real point when there are no land areas within 5 days striking distance. We only need to spend money for that kind of data when land is threatened.
My family was about to cancel their trip down here to Fort Lauderdale because of TD9/Isaac... Love the models trending away from us which I figured they wood! Whoooo hooo!!!! I haven't seen my family in a very long time!
2 impressive classic developing tropical cyclones.
Link
1123. CJ5
Quoting presslord:


there'll be a hell of a lot more "otherwise"


We are on the same page. LOL
1124. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will S FL be in the at track at 5PM????
well we will see at 5pm
Quoting icmoore:


For the life of me I can't understand "wishcasting".
I live a block and a half away from the GOM and do not want to even consider what some models show could happen to my little cottage. People have to remember that not including the panhandle the rest of the peninsular is probably not more than 150-160 miles wide at the widest...now think about a really large storm.
icmoore.......And I am 100 yards from the Intracoastal on the other side.......I agree with you 100%
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Vortex message supports a 40kt/1005mb 5p.m (or sooner?) advisory.


Yup its most likely a 45 mph TS. What about the NOAA jets that are set to investigate the E. Caribbean.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
MA.Curious, Where do you live?

Massachusetts. You couldn't figure that out by my handle, lol?

And I was kidding with my comment of course.
1128. bappit
Quoting yqt1001:
Bolaven funktop:



Amazingly deep convection!

That is getting into white which is next on the scale after green. How cold is that?
Quoting wolftribe2009:
It is way to early to be certain where Isaac is going. I give it another day before the models tell us if it is even going to head into the western gulf. Right now most are insisting he is headed for East Florida. Now with that said, watch out in the GOM. GFS has been a southern predictor this year and all of the sudden it is all over the western GOM. That should have some people getting nervous. The GFS model is one of the most reliable from what I have seen. It was right about Hurricane Ernesto.


Excellent post in my opinion. You sound like a veteran storm watcher.
Quoting CJ5:
Well, one thing is for sure, the blog will be expand greatly with each passing day. And with that, every possible scenario will get posted. Knowledgeable or otherwise.


That is what makes coming here interesting.......
1131. yoboi
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:


Baton Rouge


hope ya don't get a gustav deaux...
1132. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIMS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MAYTOWN...SCOTTSMOOR...HAULOVER CANAL...OAK HILL...EDGEWATER...
ELDORA...APOLLO BEACH...NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND BETHUNE BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Can anyone give me location of COC?? Just got on...
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
We have Isaac

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS,
Don't know why they didn't go with 45mph; I'm assuming that the vortex is sufficient data, right? *oblivious face*
Quoting yqt1001:
Bolaven funktop:



Amazingly deep convection!


GFS has made Bolaven a monster consistently the past few days. Whoever has to deal with him is going to have a bad time. 964mb on the GFS.

Quoting 954Soxfan:
My family was about to cancel their trip down here to Fort Lauderdale because of TD9/Isaac... Love the models trending away from us which I figured they wood! Whoooo hooo!!!! I haven't seen my family in a very long time!
Sox........Keep an eye out... The all clear has not been given
It's moving almost due N







Sits and waits...
Echoing the comment below as to the NHC 3-day track, a few friends and relatives in South Florida ( I am in the Big Bend) have sent me some e-mails/messages today about the storm, knowing my interest in these things, and whether they should take any action.

I told them all the same thing; good idea to check now on their supplies of basic "storm" stuff just in case and that we would have a better idea of where it would be headed by Friday aft pursuant to the NHC 3 day track (about 3 days out from a potential Florida impact) before they went out for the plywood and such.

Also noting the wild card again; we do not know what impact the land interaction will have so I am not assuming a hurricane for me yet either in the Florida Pandhandle/Big Bend region.

You need to make preparations if you are in the 3 day cone come the weekend.

1139. txwcc
Quoting OceanMoan:


That is what makes coming here interesting.......


Staying safe in Summerville? Hoping this doesn't come near you...
1140. kwgirl
Quoting RitaEvac:
Repeating:

Models will keep shifting. Seriously 6 days from it being near Florida leaves a ridiculous amount of room for changes to the track between now and then. As Dr. Masters likes to remind us, the average 5-day track error from the NHC is over 250 miles. That's about the distance that separates their current forecast and mine, and the model spread is still larger than that. Lots of room for adjustments. The important thing is getting the short-term track better defined for interests in the Caribbean islands.
Rita you really should give Levi his credit for this. A lot of people know it was Levi but when new people log on they won't. I know you are not trying to take credit yourself as I saw you identify it, but I think it would be clearer to leave Levi's name somewhere with the comment.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't know why they didn't go with 45mph; I'm assuming that the vortex is sufficient data, right? *oblivious face*



i think with the recon fight out there i think the nhc will go with vortext
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't know why they didn't go with 45mph; I'm assuming that the vortex is sufficient data, right? *oblivious face*

They may still use 45, they don't have to follow ATCF.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
What the heck have 09L and 96L been eating? They are huge!



AMAZING look like TD09 grow a lot since this mourning.
Looking more like IKE type of size. Wow that sends chills down my spine!
1144. yqt1001
Quoting bappit:

That is getting into white which is next on the scale after green. How cold is that?


I'm not sure but I'm guessing it's reaching -100C. I haven't seen white funktop in months...
My lord this is one serious storm ragging out here.

1146. Gorty
Could future Joyce impact me up in New England?
1147. pcola57
Quoting icmoore:


For the life of me I can't understand "wishcasting".
I live a block and a half away from the GOM and do not want to even consider what some models show could happen to my little cottage. People have to remember that not including the panhandle the rest of the peninsular is probably not more than 150-160 miles wide at the widest...now think about a really large storm.


And not to mention pretty doggone flat..I don't know the highest point in Florida but it doesn't slow hurricain's down much..depending on forward speed of course.. :)
1148. LargoFl
1149. Patrap


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't know why they didn't go with 45mph; I'm assuming that the vortex is sufficient data, right? *oblivious face*


I thought the vortex was generous, IMO data supports 35kt.
The pink line changes with new advisories...

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,
Quoting A4Guy:


All the Gulfcasters will keep citing the Euro model, since it's the one bringing the storm to their doorstep. The Tampacasters will cite the GFS, and the East Coast casters will cite all the others.

Trust the FOREcasters at the NHC that have PHDs in meteorrolgy, not the kid eating cereal on his parent's couch. :)

this is a weather blog where people look at every model available. just because i happen to live on the gulf coast doesnt mean i want it to come here, but when a model shows it coming here i am gonna show it on the blog just like everyone else shows any models that come to there area. we are on here to learn about forcasting and seeing all the different models has taught me alot about which ones to trust and which ones not to. If you don't like what people are posting, no matter where they live, then go to another site. I am tired off people getting called out for discussing the weather and having there own opinions. back to lurking
Quoting Gorty:
Could future Joyce impact me up in New England?


WAY WAY too early to tell.
Quoting AllStar17:
It is very possible the center gets drawn southward under the heaviest thunderstorms over the next few hours.

agreed
Tropical Storm ISAAC.

9-3-0

96L is also well on its way to becoming TD10.


Color me impressed if we get 10 named storms before September in an El Nino year.
1157. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My lord this is one serious storm ragging out here.

hope you dont lose power like i did last night..not in this heat and humidty whew
Quoting Gorty:
Could future Joyce impact me up in New England?



ask that next week way way too eary too tell
1159. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't know why they didn't go with 45mph; I'm assuming that the vortex is sufficient data, right? *oblivious face*


SFMR wasn't really that convincing to go up to 40kt. 35kt seems reasonable given an average of 40kt flight-level winds and 35kt SFMR.

Quoting HurricaneJamaica:
Greetings from Jamaica to Dr. Masters and all bloggers...for many years during the Hurricane Season I have been coming here for all the info and decided to join. Currently focused on potential Isaac. What are your views on the effects of this system affecting Jamaica?


Every model has it going north of Jamaica, but not by much. I'm a bit suspicious about the uniformity. In my very non professional opinion, it could easily hit Jamaica. Anywhere between Nicaragua and Nova Scotia, in fact.
96L is impressive:

Oh one more thing...

No one might know this but the Carolinas and parts of the Mississippi Valley have been getting lots of rainfall (over 100% of normal)
Quoting StormJunkie:
It's moving almost due N







Sits and waits...

are ya tryin' to get them riled up?
Anybody got a good blank chart of the Atlantic so I can make my own forecast track? :p
Some cold and dry air ahead of the storm.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-l ows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/
Quoting MississippiWx:
96L is impressive:



May be classified tonight. I would.
1167. Gorty
Quoting AllStar17:


WAY WAY too early to tell.


Irene was a close call to me. It went from being forecast as a 100 mph (I think a little higher not sure)to hit me but instead it weakened a lot to a TS.
1169. LargoFl
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Oh one more thing...

No one might know this but the Carolinas and parts of the Mississippi Valley have been getting lots of rainfall (over 100% of normal)
yes from maine to texas has been getting it for days now
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Oh one more thing...

No one might know this but the Carolinas and parts of the Mississippi Valley have been getting lots of rainfall (over 100% of normal)


I sure know it...although there is no such place as "..the Carolinas..."
Quoting MississippiWx:
96L is impressive:



2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Don't really agree with that and I think the percentage should be higher.
drive.by.truckers..turn.it.up
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Storm ISAAC.

9-3-0

96L is also well on its way to becoming TD10.


Color me impressed if we get 10 named storms before September in an El Nino year.


The more I look at Issac the more it reminds me of IKE size. Florida could see some of the worst storm surge since WILMA or more especially SE Florida. IF this situation materialize.
Quoting SouthTXWX:

The possible effects: wind and rain.  Affecting your lawn and trash cans! It looks like it may scoot north of you, but you will still see squally weather i believe, still far out.


Thank you very much.
Looks like it is finally "at one" with the surrounding moisture.

Isaac's center has resumed a more westward motion based on satellite loops. Earlier today when it was at its worst the center was moving NW as the thunderstorms moved WSW. Now it's pulling it back together.
1177. LargoFl
This..is exactly what our guy in Brownsville texas wanted..the rains from 95L to come to his area..looks like it is finally.........................SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

GMZ130-132-TXZ253>257-212100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN. ..
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CAMERON COUNTY, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WILLACY AND EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY.

$$
1178. Gorty
Quoting AllStar17:


2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Don't really agree with that and I think the percentage should be higher.


It was back a 2 PM. Remember, stuff can organize and develop quickly after a TWO.
1179. Patrap


Quoting txwcc:


Staying safe in Summerville? Hoping this doesn't come near you...


:-) Safe and sound. I don't want a storm this year, more than I regularly don't want a storm.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sox........Keep an eye out... The all clear has not been given


I know, but its looking better with each model run and update that South Florida is looking good.
T.C.F.W.
09L/TS/I/CX
MARK
15.07N/53.72W
1183. Patrap
This El Nino really is ruining this hurricane season!

*sarcasm
Quoting icmoore:


For the life of me I can't understand "wishcasting".
I live a block and a half away from the GOM and do not want to even consider what some models show could happen to my little cottage. People have to remember that not including the panhandle the rest of the peninsular is probably not more than 150-160 miles wide at the widest...now think about a really large storm.


Also something to think about is the fact that if Florida is 160 miles wide, and the forecast track is off by an average of 250 miles at this point, that means it is not only possible but LIKELY we will see the track go from one side of Florida to the other, and maybe back again, several times before all is said and done.

When a system is turning north like this one is expected to (at some point), keep in mind just a few extra hours going west (or turning N a few hours earlier than expected) is all it takes for the system to be an east coast storm as opposed to gulf storm. Just a few hours can make a huge difference ... and we are still a week away

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Isaac's center has resumed a more westward motion based on satellite loops. Earlier today when it was at its worst the center was moving NW as the thunderstorms moved WSW. Now it's pulling it back together.


Yep...and I think it is pulling together for good now.
Quoting MississippiWx:
96L is impressive:



@ 1161

That's a beast. Looks like an ultrasound scan of an incubating Alien getting ready to explode out of its host's gut. I hope I'm wrong about that.
just curious. if issac stays a tropical storm and stays weaker, could he reach the Gulf without smashing through the carribean islands like cuba and hispanola?
Quoting MississippiWx:
96L is impressive:



I think the recon should investigate 96L it could be on the verge of developing.
1190. Patrap
Quoting AllStar17:


2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Don't really agree with that and I think the percentage should be higher.



that was done at 2pm how evere t-storms are now fireing overe 96L so it could go up to 80% at 8pm outlook if it keeps fireing t-storms overe 96L
Quoting Hurricanes305:


I think the recon should investigate 96L it could be on the verge of developing.




its way to far out for the recon it has too be at 55W
Quoting Redbull77:

this is a weather blog where people look at every model available. just because i happen to live on the gulf coast doesnt mean i want it to come here, but when a model shows it coming here i am gonna show it on the blog just like everyone else shows any models that come to there area. we are on here to learn about forcasting and seeing all the different models has taught me alot about which ones to trust and which ones not to. If you don't like what people are posting, no matter where they live, then go to another site. I am tired off people getting called out for discussing the weather and having there own opinions. back to lurking


Not even NOAA is right all the time. It takes instinct to forecast and a lot at NOAA and NHC don't have that. That is why they change the path of the storm every 6 hours. I am a firm believer that you stick to your guns to where the storm is going and what it will do and don't meander from that until it is all over. You might be proven wrong but but at least you wouldn't be one of the ones that predicts a different path every time the wind blows.

One thing I feel certain about...

This time of the year these storms turn north due to troughs. I feel certain it will indeed turn which is why all the models are showing that. Now right now I think the storm is too far east and the models are shifting it over northward over the Bahamas. I think once it comes westward you will start seeing more tracks in the west GOM due to further uncertainty with models. My current thoughts on a surprise twist to all of this is all the GOM people being right and then at the last moment the trough picks up the storm and pushes it over western florid like Charlie in 2004.

Now that would be a surprise.
1194. LargoFl

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR APOPKA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
WEKIWA SPRINGS...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...MOUNT PLYMOUTH...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...CASSIA...SANFORD... AND DEBARY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
1195. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Anybody got a good blank chart of the Atlantic so I can make my own forecast track? :p


NHC has tracking maps: Link
Quoting presslord:


I sure know it...although there is no such place as "..the Carolinas..."



James Taylor thinks there is.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've never understood why they can't construct a base on one of the southern Cape Verde islands.


Maybe they can't get permission from the Republic?
Center location??
1199. Patrap
RainBow Top Image Loop

Quoting yonzabam:


Every model has it going north of Jamaica, but not by much. I'm a bit suspicious about the uniformity. In my very non professional opinion, it could easily hit Jamaica. Anywhere between Nicaragua and Nova Scotia, in fact.


That does seem to be the bad news that we don't need. Thanks for your reply.
1201. myway
Quoting 954Soxfan:


I know, but its looking better with each model run and update that South Florida is looking good.


Cant let a possibility ruin your plans. Just booked a tee time for Sunday in palm beach.
1202. Patrap
The RGB Gridded Image is a good Locater this afternoon


1203. yoboi
patrap


how many hrs does it take to evacuate NOLA??????
Quoting cat6band:
Center location??



read back been posted a few times
We are officially moving into the peak period and the best conditions sheer and SST wise that these CV storms will have over the next 6 weeks before we see a rise in sheer again due to El Nino. The last systems sputtered through the Caribbean struggling with speed and dry air issues. This is where the rubber meets the road; developing a good moisture envelope to fight off the relatively dry conditions......That has been the story of the past few weeks so far.
1206. Patrap
N 15.4

W 53.5 by my penciling.

Rocket Fuel

Uh oh...

First check-in a couple of weeks - I have been doing essays for college apps. I just wanted to warn everyone (and I mean everyone, not just Floridians) to keep a close eye on Isaac. Back to essays.
Quoting yoboi:
patrap


how many hrs does it take to evacuate NOLA??????



A bunch...for Katrina, 1 mile= 4hrs.. heading west....I went east!!!
1210. JLPR2
TW ahead of TD 9 is bringing me a rather decent thunderstorm.

Quoting yonzabam:


Every model has it going north of Jamaica, but not by much. I'm a bit suspicious about the uniformity. In my very non professional opinion, it could easily hit Jamaica. Anywhere between Nicaragua and Nova Scotia, in fact.


lol excellent comment and very wise. I actually agree with you. Jamaica and even eastern cuba need to just monitor the storm because once Isaac comes westward the models might start shifting tracks over these areas. That is the thing about the models. Which is right and which one are you going with? I love that a lot miss that weather is unpredictable. No one can be 100% perfect.
1212. atl134
Quoting floridaboy14:
just curious. if issac stays a tropical storm and stays weaker, could he reach the Gulf without smashing through the carribean islands like cuba and hispanola?


Considering the new ECMWF run shows a not all that weak version of that, it's possible.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



James Taylor thinks there is.


He knows he's a Carolinian...I think he just likes giving everyone garbage about it. lol

And again, it's moving almost due N now...

Seriously & all jokes aside. Will be interesting to see how 9 handles what seems to be a chance to pull in moisture.
1214. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Quoting presslord:


I sure know it...although there is no such place as "..the Carolinas..."



At least you are consistent Press, always know what you are going to say about that. :-)
1216. pcola57
Quoting TomTaylor:
Anybody got a good blank chart of the Atlantic so I can make my own forecast track? :p


Try this one from Red Cross
Quoting Tazmanian:



read back been posted a few times



Thanks Taz....took you longer to write that....
1218. LargoFl
Is this trough going to make it down to say..Miami?........
well so far the track of td9 is gonna miss east coast florida and by tommorow i think the track will have it missing the west coast of florida and by sunday might be even further west i pretty much said it would miss florida 3 days ago and so far im right on they usually keep moving these tracks further away every day
Quoting SouthTXWX:
Rocket Fuel

Uh oh...


Nitrous!
POSS T.C.F.A.
XXL/INV96/XX/XX
MARK
9.85N/29.99W
Quoting floridaboy14:
just curious. if issac stays a tropical storm and stays weaker, could he reach the Gulf without smashing through the carribean islands like cuba and hispanola?


Issac looks like it heading west if not slightly north of due west after taking a dip to the wsw. It go south or over the Haitian peninsula and the eastern portion of Cuba. Between the Turks and Caicos and Eastern Cuba and slowly move NW into Florida.
Quoting cat6band:



A bunch...for Katrina, 1 mile= 4hrs.. heading west....I went east!!!


wasn't it worse in houston with Rita?
Quoting myway:


Cant let a possibility ruin your plans. Just booked a tee time for Sunday in palm beach.


Oh I am not. I told my family to come on down. They are coming down from Kentucky and have never experienced a tropical storm or hurricane. I told them they have nothing to worry about down here. If I lived on the gulf coast I would tell them to hold off but not down here in Sfla. We are looking good!
Newest visible image. Really blowing storms up around that center:

Quoting wolftribe2009:


lol excellent comment and very wise. I actually agree with you. Jamaica and even eastern cuba need to just monitor the storm because once Isaac comes westward the models might start shifting tracks over these areas. That is the thing about the models. Which is right and which one are you going with? I love that a lot miss that weather is unpredictable. No one can be 100% perfect.


Western Cuba I meant
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Maybe they can't get permission from the Republic?


They don't need to. The Air Force has a base in the Azores that would be close enough to stage from if they wanted to. I just don't think it is worth the time and effort to fly a storm that far away that will make so many changes that the data would be worthless.
I'd say TS Issac's LLC seems to now moving W on last frame note LLC may get dragged into the convection to the SW
1229. Patrap
1230. WxLogic
Quoting LargoFl:
Is this trough going to make it down to say..Miami?........


Very doubtful in my opinion
Quoting OceanMoan:



At least you are consistent Press, always know what you are going to say about that. :-)


Afternoon OM, good to see you. Keeping an eye on this one I'm guessing?
Just to make it official with a name and everything:

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, M
I certainly wouldn't discount the ECMWF 12Z more westward solution, esp with a TC this large capable of altering it's steering environment... and just too many changeable factors come into play that far out in time.

However, that said, in my opinion the ECMWF has shown somewhat a westward bias on many occasions before, perhaps it has a tendency to overplay ridging strength as much as some find the GFS is often overdoing trofs... I.E - last year, euro held longer onto solution of STS Lee into S Cen TX over LA... or after scaring the wits outta NYC with it's initial Irene Cat 3 strike, shifted farther west on each run than the GFS, showing a strike at SC-NC border, slowly shifting EWD similar to GFS - which of course, the NHC compromised between the two tracks... plus the debacle of "west, no east" TS Debbie is only a recent example of when major differences of our two best models can lead to badly blown forecasts - guess many forgot the previous really big solution clash that happened last Oct 8-9th, when at crunch time, all NWS forecasters jumped on board the euro insistence of a E GOM subtropical low development would strike W coast FL, while GFS - deemed the outlier - indicated consistently and correctly sfc low formation would occur over Bahamas, then lift toward / strike E FL... LOL, the GFS was doing just fine before the recent heralded upgrades, IMO.

Just an observation... Again, all things considered, would be foolish to discount that solution and AL09's position / track by that time frame... At this point it's just another possibility worthy of note.

Later...
Quoting Levi32:


No real point when there are no land areas within 5 days striking distance. We only need to spend money for that kind of data when land is threatened.
What about for the sake of meteorological science, and CV ciclonic genesis...
1235. LargoFl
Quoting WxLogic:


Very doubtful in my opinion
ok ty
Quoting wolftribe2009:


wasn't it worse in houston with Rita?


I'm not sure of that...I just know it was a parking lot here in NOLA....I did 85 mph going I 10 east to Fl.
1237. Patrap
TS Isaac

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for Loop

Click moving GIF to ZOOM




Quoting Dodabear:


They don't need to. The Air Force has a base in the Azores that would be close enough to stage from it they wanted to. I just don't think it is worth the time and effort to fly a storm that far away that will make so many changes that the data would be worthless.


there is really no place for that sorta reasonable talk here...
1240. LargoFl
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FLC009-127-212000-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-120821T2000Z/
VOLUSIA-BREVARD-
328 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A SPOTTER REPORTED
PENNY SIZED HAIL OCCURRING NEAR MIMS WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR AURANTIA...OR NEAR SCOTTSMOOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAULOVER CANAL...SHILOH...OAK HILL...EDGEWATER...ELDORA...APOLLO
BEACH...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...BETHUNE BEACH AND TURTLE MOUND

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
east central florida should be just fine by tommorow they will move the track even more west im sure then more west eac h day taking florida out of the picture that always happens every year
This is a really big storm. It is big enough to cover the length vertically across the Caribbean the whole way through. Can it get any bigger if it hits the gulf? That would be a scary thing to see but impressive.

Link
can i get a program where i can make my own projected path please?
Quoting StormJunkie:


Afternoon OM, good to see you. Keeping an eye on this one I'm guessing?


Most definitely, especially after seeing a few things you posted on FB. :-)
1246. wpb
Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLOME B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z


Quoting LargoFl:
Is this trough going to make it down to say..Miami?........
My local mets said it will stall just north of me but I havn't seen it make much of a move to the south this afternoon.
1248. Patrap
TS Isaac moving a lot of Atmosphere around.
1250. LargoFl
Quoting masonsnana:
My local mets said it will stall just north of me but I havn't seen it make much of a move to the south this afternoon.
boy if it reaches you, its a bad one
going.with.nhc.not.some.kook.off.the.internet
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.

Link
1253. Patrap
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z



Sniffs and High Flyers as well from McDill.

That will help out finding some end lines downstream.
1254. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FLZ067-212030-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO
55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI TO 8 MILES EAST OF OKEELANTA...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
US 98...
US 441...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2660 8029 2647 8063 2673 8067 2693 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 174DEG 8KT 2676 8038 2658 8059

$$

BAXTER
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting LargoFl:
boy if it reaches you, its a bad one
Bring that my way not Isaac OK?
Quoting Chucktown:
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.



See what I mean?!?!?!?! Ya'd never get that kinda helpful input from Rob Fowler...
granted way far out to say but Im guessing a track between Ivans in 2004 to Floyds in 1999 just my opinion..
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'd say TS Issac's LLC seems to now moving W on last frame note LLC may get dragged into the convection to the SW


Straight to the Cayman islands I'm sure...
florida will be spared im sure these tracks always change more west every day
Im not buying the westward shifts in the models as this is about 5-6 days away from the US. So there will be slight shifts However they stays right in the vicinity Florida for 3 days now. By the way I have gut feeling that this could be a Major Crossing over Cuba.
18z dynamical package has more interaction with Hispañola, and less (nearly no) interaction with Cuba (as far as the TVCN is concerned). You can take it as both good and bad news. It can be viewed as bad news since it would have more time to intensify over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic without Cuban interaction, whereas, this is somewhat good news (from a selfish point of view) since Hispañola's mountains will be far more helpful in disrupting the circulation as opposed to Cuba's terrain.

Quoting JLPR2:
TW ahead of TD 9 is bringing me a rather decent thunderstorm.

Yes, I guess that even it isn't directly related to Isaac, it feels as the first band of the storm. I'm getting some weather in the west of Puerto Rico as well.
Quoting Redbull77:

this is a weather blog where people look at every model available. just because i happen to live on the gulf coast doesnt mean i want it to come here, but when a model shows it coming here i am gonna show it on the blog just like everyone else shows any models that come to there area. we are on here to learn about forcasting and seeing all the different models has taught me alot about which ones to trust and which ones not to. If you don't like what people are posting, no matter where they live, then go to another site. I am tired off people getting called out for discussing the weather and having there own opinions. back to lurking
Exactly what I was thinking, redbull. For crying out loud, it's a weather blog with mostly amateurs like myself, who enjoy looking at models, making predictions and waiting to see if they pan out. I think most here know that the NHC is darn good at what they do and when it come down to it, that's who most listen to. So, yep, go back to lurking and let the kid eat his bowl of cereal while he predicts the weather. Better than out robbing a liquor store.
Quoting Chucktown:
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.


yes you are right TS Isaac
Quoting presslord:


there is really no place for that sorta reasonable talk here...


Needs to be closer to the Carolinas to be worthwhile, right Press??? LOL
Quoting cat6band:



A bunch...for Katrina, 1 mile= 4hrs.. heading west....I went east!!!


Oh gosh, let's not even discuss contraflow ..I was at Tulane in '05 and it took HOURS to get home to Baton Rouge.
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Im not buying the westward shifts in the models as this is about 5-6 days away from the US. So there will be slight shifts However they stays right in the vicinity Florida for 3 days now. By the way I have gut feeling that this could be a Major Crossing over Cuba.


Do you put more faith in long-range forecasts if there is consistency with several different models?
Quoting cat6band:


I'm not sure of that...I just know it was a parking lot here in NOLA....I did 85 mph going I 10 east to Fl.





It took us 8 hrs to get to the Florida state line but that was the Sunday before Katrina. I do think Rita was worse. People had just seen what a hurricane can do a few weeks before.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


wasn't it worse in houston with Rita?


It was pretty bad. 10 hrs to Austin (NW), more to Dallas (I-45 N) with bus fires and no gas. Since then TxDOT has added contra flow lanes (although they've never been used)
Here in Carolina we are under  nice Tstorm.
Quoting JLPR2:
TW ahead of TD 9 is bringing me a rather decent thunderstorm.


Quoting Charliesgirl:





It took us 8 hrs to get to the Florida state line but that was the Sunday before Katrina. I do think Rita was worse. People had just seen what a hurricane can do a few weeks before.


My small town got inundated with Katrina refugees - no gas and our 1 grocery store sold out of food. Then a few weeks later we got all the Rita evacuees coming from Texas and we still had thousands of Katrina folks here. It was a rough situation.
Quoting LargoFl:
This..is exactly what our guy in Brownsville texas wanted..the rains from 95L to come to his area..looks like it is finally.........................SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

GMZ130-132-TXZ253>257-212100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN. ..
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CAMERON COUNTY, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WILLACY AND EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY.

$$

Yes!!! It appear some kind of spin went by not too long ago! It really got us
Quoting ecupirate:


Straight to the Cayman islands I'm sure...
ha,ha, Ecurate, you made me laugh....Cayman kid is just excited, but he is a very smart blogger , providing interesting insights as well.
Good afternoon All
Been watching Isaac/td9 like a hawk since it left Africa,
I have a bad feeling about this one guys the shear scale of this storm is frightening he is gonna be a big cane when it gets it's self together with anywhere 200 miles+ from centre feeling his effects! I will be stocking up on my supplies this weekend on marco and making sure the genarator is up to scratch South Florida Storm IMHO. Back to lurking.
Quoting txwcc:
CPC just came out with their 6-10 outlook. They sure are onboard with a landfall somewhere in the Southeast...



By this graph here this should already tell us alot don't cha think? Look where all the rain is. Again I'm probably wrong like usual.

sheri
Quoting wolftribe2009:
This is a really big storm. It is big enough to cover the length vertically across the Caribbean the whole way through. Can it get any bigger if it hits the gulf? That would be a scary thing to see but impressive.

Link



Wilma.

Could it . . . . ? Nah.





Quoting HuracanTaino:
ha,ha, Ecurate, you made me laugh....Cayman kid is just excited, but he is a very smart blogger , providing interesting insights as well.


The Caymans should be ok with Isaac. Looks like it will turn early enough to spare them the worst.
12z Euro Ensembles just came out. Look at the Gulf.

Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Yes!!! It appear some kind of spin went by not too long ago! It really got us

Great news! It doesn't appear the storm will pan out for Centex :(
1284. hydrus
Quoting bappit:

Yeah. In two days the five day forecast will be only a three day forecast.
I was trying to say that it will be easier to latch on to when it has intensified ya fricken grouch....:)
1285. hydrus
Quoting TomTaylor:
12z Euro Ensembles just came out. Look at the Gulf.

oooohh dat look nasty
Quoting clwstmchasr:


The Caymans should be ok with Isaac. Looks like it will turn early enough to spare them the worst.


Hopefully - but will not drop my guard on this one till we are well clear.
Regardless, it is going to bring serious consequences to many people - sooner or later - perhaps to Haiti first.
As I have often thought, living in "Hurricane Alley" can seem to be a bit like being in front of a firing squad - saying "Shoot him - not me" - someone will suffer!
"A Hurricane is not a dot on the map"
Link


This was posted a few moments ago from our local West Palm Beach News
1289. Matt74
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
well so far the track of td9 is gonna miss east coast florida and by tommorow i think the track will have it missing the west coast of florida and by sunday might be even further west i pretty much said it would miss florida 3 days ago and so far im right on they usually keep moving these tracks further away every day
Your not gonna get plussed for this statement. In fact you might get reported!!! lol
Link

For those curious about the euro ensemble data this is a cool link.

Go play around and get the N America loop playing...

Look at the shaded areas; Those are the std deviations of the different members that comprise the ens mean.

This run shows that an eastward bias from the ops run will be statistically more likely, based on the ensemble members' runs.

Questions? Comments?
Quoting WoodyFL:


Man your are sick to use the picture of a dead lady to make of the people on this blog. Ive seen some stunts but you really need helpp




Heres a link to it. Wow, man low

Link
Was expecting this... that character has been trolling this blog as an elderly person with a hope in the potential hurricane path for a couple years now... recognised the prose and the storyline right away....

Sad.

BTW how did u search for the picture? WUmail me if u don't want to continue on the blog...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes you are right TS Isaac

Do you know much about the 'haircuts' storms get traveling just S of all the islands on the way to GOM?

I can't remember the exact cyclones that got them and were track-impacted by them, but I do recall it happening....
Oh no, this is the "I" named storm
Great post - very detailed. As it's now become TS Isaac, I notice the ECMWF is way further south and the GFS brings it up the U.S. East Coast. I really do feel for the folks in Haiti and hope by some stroke of luck they are spared the worst of this . . . even at tropical storm strength - yikes. Of course, the storm is just now developing and isn't strengthening all that quickly. And as many have noted above, the model guidance will shift all over the place between now and whatever landfall it might make.